LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 07/12

Bible Quotation for today/God and Possessions
Matthew 06/24-34: "You cannot be a slave of two masters; you will hate one and love the other; you will be loyal to one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money. This is why I tell you: do not be worried about the food and drink you need in order to stay alive, or about clothes for your body. After all, isn't life worth more than food? And isn't the body worth more than clothes? Look at the birds: they do not plant seeds, gather a harvest and put it in barns; yet your Father in heaven takes care of them! Aren't you worth much more than birds? Can any of you live a bit longer by worrying about it?  And why worry about clothes? Look how the wild flowers grow: they do not work or make clothes for themselves. But I tell you that not even King Solomon with all his wealth had clothes as beautiful as one of these flowers. It is God who clothes the wild grass—grass that is here today and gone tomorrow, burned up in the oven. Won't he be all the more sure to clothe you? What little faith you have! So do not start worrying: Where will my food come from? or my drink? or my clothes? (These are the things the pagans are always concerned about. Your Father in heaven knows that you need all these things. Instead, be concerned above everything else with the Kingdom of God and with what he requires of you, and he will provide you with all these other things. So do not worry about tomorrow; it will have enough worries of its own. There is no need to add to the troubles each day brings."

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Will Nasrallah pay the price for al-Assad/By Emad El Din Adeeb/Asharq Alawsat/October 06/12
Yes, the al-Assad regime is afraid/By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 06/12

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for October 06/12
Israeli Army Israel wages cyber battle over UAV, satellite-guided by Iran or Hizballah
Israel checking: Was drone headed to Dimona?
21st century battlefield: Race of drones
Downed drone: Iran testing Israel's capabilities
Iran presents 'US spy drone'
Tehran's Grand Bazaar reopens, currency trade still frozen
UN chief says sanctions on Iran affecting its people
Report: Israel's Iran policy shifting amid Tehran unrest
Syria unrest sparks rifts among Lebanon’s Palestinian factions
Egyptian Constituent Assembly close to finalizing constitution - El-Beltagy
Interview: Libyan - Syrian revolutionary Mahdi al-Harati

US-Israel Ties: Obama's anti-Israel agenda
Assad: Enemy has Israeli weapons
Turkey returns fire after new Syrian shelling
Northern border: Hezbollah’s transformation

Syria army pounds Homs, rebels seize border village
Pope's butler convicted in leaks, given 18 months
Syria army pounds Homs, rebels seize border village
U.S. court fight starts for radical cleric sent from Britain
Suleiman: My Call for Dialogue is Aimed at Achieving Sovereignty, Stability
Lebanon’s Arabic press digest - Oct. 6, 2012
Assad adviser involved in Samaha case: report
Saqr Refers File on Samaha-Shaaban Telephone Calls on Explosives to Military Tribunal Judge
Jumblat: No One Would Have Ever Thought Resistance's Arms Would Be Turned to Internal Scene

Israel wages cyber battle over UAV, satellite-guided by Iran or Hizballah
DEBKAfile Special Report October 6, 2012/Israeli intelligence and air force waged a cyber battle Saturday, Oct. 6 with unidentified parties, most likely Hizballah or Iran, who sent a satellite-guided unmanned helicopter into Israeli air space through the Mediterranean. debkafile’s military sources report exclusively that for 30 minutes, as the helicopter flew over southern Israel, control swung back and forth between Israeli cyber operators and unknown agents.
The battle was finally resolved by an Israel decision to scramble four F-16 fighters to shoot the trespasser down, the while Israeli cyber experts tried to identify its satellite controller.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak released a statement saying that Israel takes a very grave view of the incursion and will weigh its response.
debkafile reported earlier Saturday, straight after the incident:
Israeli air force jets were scrambled Saturday, Oct. 6 to shoot down a small unmanned aircraft from Gaza. It was downed over the Yatir forest in the southern Mt. Hebron district after cutting across southern Israeli airspace. It crashed at around 1000 local time. Israeli troops are scouring the area in search of fragments.
debkafile’s military sources reports that the unmanned plane was sent over Israeli airspace at the start of a military mobilization exercise conducted by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. It is coordinated with Hizballah and sponsored by Iran. The Lebanese terrorist group may have helped Hamas launch the aerial vehicle, which came in from the west.
It as shot down almost half an hour after the intrusion. The IDF spokesman denied it caught Israel intelligence unawares. He said the UAV was tracked from the start and the operation for downing it was delayed to avoid harm to civilian locations in its path.
Our sources add that the plan for the Gaza exercise was approved in the talks Hamas leaders Mahmoud A-Zahar and Marwan Issa held with Iranian and Hizballah leaders in Tehran and Beirut in the second week of September. They agreed then that Hamas would take active part in any Iranian or Syrian conflict with Israel.
After launching the small UAV, Hamas went ahead with its call-up of reserve strength for active duty. Roadblocks were thrown up to keep Gaza Strip roads from being clogged with civilian traffic and speed up military movement. Palestinian sources claim that before it was detected the Hamas craft managed to fly over Israeli bases and towns including Beersheba.

Israel checking: Was drone headed to Dimona?
Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynetnews
After IDF collects remnants of unmanned aircraft shot down over southern forest, security establishment examining possibility it was launched by Hezbollah to photograph Israeli reactor; army fears drones will be used to hit strategic sites. After Israeli fighter jets shot down a drone over the Yatir forest in the south Mount Hebron area on Saturday, the army is trying to figure out what its destination was. One of the possibilities the security establishment is looking into is that the unmanned aircraft, which was apparently Iranian-made, was on its way to test the option of infiltrating the nuclear reactor in Dimona, perhaps even to examine the option of targeting the plant in a future conflict.
A drone such as the one that was downed on Saturday after penetrating Israel's airspace through the Mediterranean Sea could not cause serious damage to the reactor, but such an incident would mark a psychological victory for Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, whose leader Hassan Nasrallah recently threatened to attack strategic targets in Israel, including power plants. The Iranians are aware that Israel has the capability to deal with rockets and missiles with its Iron Dome and Arrow air defense systems, but dealing with the threat of a slow drone poses a different kind of challenge.
Operating a drone by remote control from such a long distance requires advanced capabilities, which Israel was not aware Hezbollah had acquired. By examining the drone's parts, the army hopes to find out whether the drone was controlled from a command center in Lebanon or was directed by a space-based satellite navigation system (GPS) according to predetermined coordinates. If that was the case, the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) may have directed itself automatically and was supposed to return to its base or self-destruct over the sea. As far as Israel is concerned, Saturday's incident calls for increased alertness and preparations to thwart such infiltration attempts in the future. In light of the successful interception and the volatile situation in the Middle East, Israel may decide to act with restraint and not respond at all. It will certainly want to avoid a massive response that may ignite the entire region.
"Israel is aware of Iran and Hezbollah's technological capabilities. The current discussion is about how Israel should respond to such an infiltration of a drone and if it should be compared to the launching of a missile or rocket from Lebanon, which has always drawn an immediate response in the form of artillery fire or aerial strikes on targets in south Lebanon," a senior security official told Ynet Saturday night
The drone apparently began its flight in Lebanon and then headed in the direction of Gaza's coastline after flying over the Mediterranean Sea. The drone's operators may have planned to take advantage of this fact in hopes of confusing Israel's detection and interception systems. However, the drone was detected while it was still flying over the Mediterranean Sea and was downed a half-hour later over the south Mount Hebron area after IAF jets made certain it was not carrying any explosives and that its main mission was intelligence gathering.
The IDF is working to improve its aerial detection and interception capabilities in light of the changes in the Middle East and due to the fact that Israel's enemies have upgraded their military capabilities. The army is placing an emphasis on detecting drones, fearing that they may be used as a missile to target Israeli strategic sites.
"In the next war Syrian and Iranian drones will also be sent on 'suicide' missions," a senior Air Force official recently told Ynet.
Iran and Hezbollah have yet to respond officially to the downing of the drone, but in an interview with English-language Iranian network Press TV, retired Lebanese general Hisham Jaber estimated that the drone was American.
"The Negev desert is a very sensitive area," he added. "Everybody knows that the Dimona nuclear center is there and the Negev is also the nuclear reserve for the Israeli armed forces.
"No one knows where the drone came from yet, but the Palestinians do not possess such sophisticated aircraft. Maybe it came from Sinai and Egypt, but I prefer the idea that since it came from the sea it may have come from an American aircraft carrier and was shot by accident," the general said.
The retired general said the drone may have departed from one of the American bases in Saudi Arabia and rejected the possibility that it was launched from Lebanon or Jordan.
"If Israel will remain silent after its investigation and will close the file, that means that - like we said - it (drone) came from a friendly side and it is not in their interest to talk about it," he argued.
Yoav Zitun contributed to the report

Yes, the al-Assad regime is afraid!
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
Now we see the regime of the tyrant of Damascus issuing an apology to Turkey via the United Nations, pledging that there will be no repeat of the mortar attack that struck Turkish territory causing the deaths of 5 Turkish citizens. This was an incident that prompted Ankara to respond by bombarding the Syrian border, so what does this al-Assad apology tell us?The simple answer is that the al-Assad regime - both that of the father and the son - is “not ashamed to be afraid”, to use the colloquial Arab saying. So the regime of al-Assad the father avoided confronting the Turks after they threatened Damascus over harboring [PKK leader] Abdullah Ocalan. Whilst today, Bashar al-Assad also rushed to apologize to Turkey! However this incident explains the reason why al-Assad is persisting in carrying out crimes against the Syrian people. The major reason for this is that al-Assad has, until now, yet to see any real indication of foreign intervention in Syria in order to serve as a deterrent and put an end to his crimes, whether under the umbrella of the UN Security Council or outside of this framework. In this case, if al-Assad saw, for example, [foreign] aircraft entering Syrian airspace or his troops being easily overcome, he would certainly flee his presidential palace. Therefore all the talk that al-Assad is heading a strong and intransigent regime is nothing but propaganda to justify the lack of international intervention to put an end to his crimes, particularly as we have seen al-Assad demonstrate his weakness and rush to apologize following the first Turkish bombardment!
Al-Assad’s apology to Turkey was not just because of this bombardment, but also because he is aware that Turkey's parliament had released the hand of the Ankara government to launch strikes against his regime, authorizing this for a period of one whole year. Al-Assad was gambling on political division within Turkey, from the opposition and others, tying the hands of Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan and preventing him from taking any military decision against Syria. However the Turkish parliament’s decision had released the hands of Mr. Erdogan, and this serves as a clear message to al-Assad that the Turks are behind their government, and there is no room to play on or manipulate this issue. This is precisely what is missing in the international position today towards al-Assad’s crimes, for so long as there is no decisive international resolution against al-Assad, or an effective alliance of the willing to put an end to his crimes, the tyrant of Damascus will not hesitate to commit further crimes against the Syrian people.
Therefore, the lesson that we can learn from the latest Turkish position towards al-Assad is that although al-Assad is afraid, he will not desist from killing his own people. This is something that was confirmed during the Hafez al-Assad era in Syria with regards to the issue of Abdullah Ocalan, as well as following Israel’s Deir Ezzour operation during the Bashar al-Assad era. This is not to mention the US raid on the Abu Kamal terrorist camps and the withdrawal of the Syrian army from Lebanon against the backdrop of Washington’s threats against al-Assad following the assassination of Rafiq Hariri.
Everything that has happened tells us that the criminal al-Assad regime only understands the language of force, and that diplomacy does not work with it. This is because al-Assad believes that diplomacy is the art of laughing at others, or as Colonel Gaddafi associate Abdelsalam Jalloud said in his recent interview with Al-Arabiya TV, “the tyrant believes that diplomacy is lies.”
To conclude, al-Assad only understands the language of force, anything other than this is a waste of time.

Egyptian Constituent Assembly close to finalizing constitution - El-Beltagy
By Mohamed Abdu Hassanein
Cairo, Asharq Al-Awsat – In an exclusive interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Dr. Mohamed El-Beltagy, a senior member of the Muslim Brotherhood and also a member of Egypt’s Constituent Assembly, stressed that any alternative constitution-drafting committee would not reflect the will of the Egyptian people, particularly as the current assembly was formed by the now dissolved Egyptian party. El-Beltagy, who is also a spokesman for the Freedom and Justice party – the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood – asserted that the calls for a boycott of the Constituent Assembly would return Egypt to a state of “political vacuum.”
El-Beltagy described the criticism being leveled at the Freedom and Justice party regarding the performance of the government of prime minister Dr. Hisham Qandill as being “normal”, in the context of the evaluation of an incoming government, adding that whatever happens, a new government will be formed in Egypt following the referendum on the forthcoming constitution.
Egypt’s now dissolved parliament formed the 100-member Constituent Assembly to draft a new constitution for post-revolution Egypt. This is the second Constituent Assembly since the ouster of the former Mubarak regime, after the first assembly was dissolved by court order in April. Egypt’s courts are currently considering a lawsuit to dissolve the current Constituent Assembly due to the presence of former MPs within it.
The current Constituent Assembly has received significant criticism from Egypt’s liberal and left-wing political forces due to its perceived pro-Islamist bent. Human Rights activist Manal El-Tibbi recently resigned from the Constituent Assembly, and her strongly worded resignation letter has been the subject of controversy in Egypt. In the public letter, Manal El-Tibbi said that “we are approaching the drafting of a constitution that is worse than all previous Egypt constitution” adding that this constitution “would form the solid foundation not just for reproducing the former regime, but to create the state for the counter-revolution, whose direct job would be to neutralize the political, popular and glorious revolution of 25 January, 2011.”
The Egyptian Human Rights activist also claimed that this Constituent Assembly was “based on the military’s overwhelming use of power and authority, and the Muslim Brotherhood’s utilization of the parliamentary majority enjoyed by the Brotherhood, Salafists and Wahhabis.”
For his part, Dr. El-Beltagy said that there could be no complete consensus within the Constituent Assembly, adding that any such assembly would witness some differences of opinion and division. He also confirmed that El-Tibbi is the only member of the Constituent Assembly to resign until today. He stressed that the liberal and left-wing forces had boycotted some sessions, but this did not mean there was any official withdrawals or resignations from the Constituent Assembly. The Muslim Brotherhood spokesman asserted that all members of the constitution-drafting committee would be held to the assembly’s rules and regulations, namely that any assembly member who was absent for 5 or more sessions would be excluded.
Dr. El-Beltagy also told Asharq Al-Awsat that what is being proposed about reforming the Constituent Assembly, perhaps with some Islamist members being replaced, is “completely out of the question”. He confirmed that the only “reformation” of the assembly would see absent members being replaced by members present on the Constituent Assembly membership reserve list.
As for the possibility of the Constituent Assembly being dissolved for a second time by court order, Dr. El-Beltagy said “in this case, an alternative committee will be formed by presidential decree, as he [the president] has the right to reform this committee according to the ruling documents.”
Speaking exclusively to Asharq Al-Awsat, Dr. El-Beltagy said that the current Constituent Assembly “was formed by an elected parliament and represents the will of the majority of the people.” He confirmed that “any alternative assembly will not be able to achieve what this current Constituent Assembly has achieved in terms of representing the popular will.”
The Freedom and Justice party spokesman also revealed that he expects the Constituent Assembly deliberations to end in the coming few weeks, after the majority of constitutional articles have been agreed upon. In addition to this, the Constituent Assembly was given just 6 months to finalize a constitution, with this deadline ending on 12 December, according to the Constitutional Declaration issued last May. He stressed that “we will definitely finish our deliberations before this date.”
The Constituent Assembly ended its debate on the proposed Article II of the new constitution earlier this week; this article pertains to Islamic Sharia law. The Constituent Assembly members reportedly agreed to keep this article in the new constitution; the article states that “the principles of Islamic Sharia law would be the main foundation of legislation.” The previous 1971 constitution had seen an amendment attached to this article.
Article II of the new constitution will also reportedly include a clarification regarding the meaning of the term “principles”, ensuring that “this includes attestation of all Islamic Sharia law and jurisprudential views, as well as principles of Sunni madhabs.”
The new expanded Article II will also include an amendment that “followers of Christianity or Judaism have the right to appeal to their own religious laws in their personal affairs and practices, as well as the right to practice their religious rituals and choose their religious leaders.”
Salafist Constituent Assembly members conceded their earlier calls for the inclusion of a number of controversial articles, including an article dealing with criminalizing religious blasphemy, as well as an article on Zakat, Islamic almsgiving.
El-Beltagy also issued a call to former presidential candidates Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei and Hamdeen Sabahi, who have called for a boycott of the Constituent Assembly. He said “I continue to call on all Egyptian figures, including ElBaradei and Sabahi, to participate. History records all of our deeds and actions, and it is the duty of everybody to take positive stances, not negative ones. Criticizing the Constituent Assembly is not in the national interest.”
He added “calling for a boycott of the Constituent Assembly is a call for the continuation of a state of political vacuum, not just within the Constituent Assembly itself, but within the country as a whole.”
As for the criticisms being received by the Freedom and Justice regarding the performance of the Qandill government, el-Beltagy stressed “this represents an evaluation of the experience, especially as we are approaching the stage of completing the constitutional-drafting process.” He stressed that the Qandill government is a temporary government, as a new government will be formed following the referendum on the new constitution and parliamentary elections. For his part, Dr. el-Beltagy praised the performance of the Qandill government and stressed that any criticism was “normal”, adding “we do not need to defend it [the government] at all times.”

Interview: Libyan - Syrian revolutionary Mahdi al-Harati
By Abdul Sattar Hatita
Tunis, Asharq Al-Awsat – Commander of the rebel “Liwaa al-Umma” group in Syria, Libyan revolutionary Mahdi al-Harati, appeared in Tripoli, confirming reports that he was no longer present on Syrian territory. Al-Harati, who played a prominent role in the Libyan revolution that toppled Colonel Gaddafi’s rule, serving as co-commander of the Tripoli Brigade, had initially travelled to Syria on a fact-finding mission. Following discussions with members of the Syrian opposition, the Libyan commander took the decision to form Liwaa al-Umma [Banner of the Nation] and join the Syrian revolution. His appearance in Syria had served as a source of major controversy regarding the presence of foreign fighters in the ranks of the Syrian revolutionaries.
In an exclusive interview with Asharq Al-Awsat from Tripoli, Mahdi al-Harati played down the presence of foreign fighters on Syrian soil, stressing that “99 percent of Liwaa al-Umma are Syrian nationals.”
This comes at a time that a leading Free Syrian Army [FSA] officer in Idlib, utilizing the nom de guerre “Abu Huraira” claimed that the rebel army was capable of “defeating” pro-regime forces. The rebel officer, speaking via Skype, also revealed that the FSA rejected the presence of “Arab volunteers” in the Syrian revolution, particularly as this issue had been the subject of differences of opinion amongst the FSA leadership.
Al-Harati previously served as deputy to Abdul Hakim Belhadj, head of the Tripoli Military Council, before this organization was disbanded following the ouster of Gaddafi. Al-Harati’s presence in Syria had sparked controversy, particularly after he appeared in a video on YouTube in the midst of Syrian and Libyan rebel fighters. Al-Harati’s presence, along with other Libyan revolutionaries, appeared to give some credence to Syrian President al-Assad’s claims that foreign fighters were participating in the uprising against him.
In his first interview since returning from his adventures in Syria, al-Harati revealed that he has been back in his home country for the past two weeks. The Libyan commander spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat at a Tripoli hotel overlooking the Mediterranean Sea, and he spoke indirectly about the difficulty of his returning to Syria to rejoin the revolution. He asserted that the reason for his return to Libya was to undergo surgery, adding that this and the Turkish authorities’ reluctance to allow him to enter their territory makes it unlikely that he will return to Syria.
As for whether arms are being smuggled to the FSA and Syrian rebels via the border, Mahdi al-Harati asserted that “in general, weapons come from inside [Syria]…from the defectors’ stressing that “these are the arms that are present at home.” He added “as for arms coming from abroad, it is very difficult because Turkey has imposed a ban on this sort of activity.”
Whilst the Libyan revolution enjoyed wide-spread international support, including an arms embargo on the Gaddafi regime and a NATO-imposed no-fly zone and air support, the Syrian revolution has lacked any concrete foreign support. For his part, Mahdi al-Harati asserted that the conditions enjoyed by the Libyan revolution are “very difficult” to impose in Syria, despite the fact that the al-Assad regime is “massacring” the Syrian people. Indeed, the Libyan commander stressed that this is the only thing that the Syrian regime can do now, saying “all that it can do is slaughter innocent people and kill and destroy…but despite this it cannot destroy the FSA.”
In response to whether he had witnessed al-Assad regime forces utilizing internationally banned weaponry, such as chemical weapons, during his time in Syria, Mahdi al-Harati said “I did not see any chemical weapons during the war, but the force being used by the al-Assad regime is enough to kill innocent people.” He added that the al-Assad regime’s fate is sealed, but the speed of its ouster will depend on the actions and reactions of the international community.
He said “if the revolution is provided with support, then the collapse of the Syrian regime will happen very quickly…and if a no-fly zone is imposed, then this will be much quicker than you imagine.”
FSA officer Abu Huraira, speaking from Aleppo via Skype, asserted that the FSA leadership is split regarding the presence of “Arab volunteers” amongst the ranks of the Syrian rebels. He said that the presence of volunteers from Egypt, Libya and elsewhere has caused “divisions” that the FSA leadership does not require at this time, instead calling on anybody who wants to support the Syrian revolution to send weapons.
Commenting on the FSA’s rejection of non-Syrian nationals, Mahdi al-Harati told Asharq Al-Awsat that “firstly, we went [to Syria] in response to the call of the Syrian, Arab and Muslim people. We met with a very strong response from the [Syrian] people” adding “we have a very good relationship with the FSA and the Syrian Military Council, and our movements [in Syria] were in arrangements and coordination with the FSA and Military Council.”
He also stressed that 99 percent of Liwaa al-Umma, the rebel group he formed in Syria, were Syrian nationals. Al-Harati said “all the officers and cadres present in Liwaa al-Umma were present in the FSA and Syrian Military Council…namely full affiliation. As for the role played by the Libyans, this was limited to training and organization, providing any help for the factions, including playing a combat role and providing our Syrian brothers with our experience of the Libyan revolution.”
Without providing any specific figures or statistics regarding the number of Libyan or foreign volunteers amongst the ranks of the Syrian revolution, al-Harati acknowledged that many Arab fighters were present in Syria, but stressed this was not in any organized or formal manner. He said these “Arab volunteers” came from many countries to take part in the revolution, but added that the lack of organization regarding their presence in Syria “will certainly result in future problems.”
Responding to a question as to whether Al Qaeda is present on Syrian soil, al-Harati told Asharq Al-Awsat that “there may be some [Al Qaeda] elements, but not in the size that the media is talking about.” He added “what is happening in Syria is a revolution that has exceeded groups. Even if we assume that Al Qaeda is present, the revolution is beyond all groups or organizations.”
As for whether he is thinking of returning to Syria to rejoin the fight against Bashar al-Assad, the Libyan commander said “I underwent major spinal surgery, and am awaiting another operation” before adding “I hope to communicate with the Syrians.”

Will Nasrallah pay the price for al-Assad?
By Emad El Din Adeeb/Asharq Alawsat
My work in the media made it possible for me to meet with Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on several occasions. This allowed me to get close to the man and become acquainted with some aspects of his personality.
Regardless of whether we agree or disagree with Nasrallah and his group, there can be no doubt that he possesses a number of attributes that both his friends and enemies can agree on. These attributes are as follows:
1. The man has all the attributes of a charismatic leader.
2. He has a unique logical style in putting forward ideas and giving an account of events, and he certainly has the ability to convince others.
3. The man is socially adept, and enjoys political expertise.
All these attributes means that Nasrallah is no easy prey, and he will try to ensure that Hezbollah, “the party of resistance”, does not go down in the history books as contributing - by word or deed - in quelling a popular uprising against injustice, repression and autocracy in Syria. This is why I paused thoughtfully last week to meditate on Hezbollah's statement from Beirut regarding the death of one of the movement’s leaders, known as “Abu Abbas”, who was killed in Homs whilst “performing his jihadist duty”, according to the statement.
The statement is an explicit admission of the party's involvement in the military operations and massacres being committed by the Syrian regime’s troops to quell the popular uprising in the country. In fact, this stance and option only serves to harm Hezbollah’s stature and reputation, as well as its standing in Lebanon and Syria, in both the long and short term.
Syria, for Hezbollah, is a strategic necessity and a source of arms, as well as training and logistical supplies. Syria is a strategic bridge between Hezbollah and Tehran, whilst Damascus is also a major political supporter for the group’s activities in Lebanon.
Yet, at some point, Hezbollah must choose between the dictates of reality and the weight of history.
Therefore, I strongly doubt that Hassan Nasrallah can back the Syrian regime politically or militarily. This is because he has the social intelligence and political expertise to be aware that he is betting on a long-shot that will impact negatively on the group’s stature in Lebanon and Syria.
In my view, Nasrallah is acting like someone who is unable to reject or withstand the pressures being mounted on him by Iran and Syria. Even now, Iran continues to gamble on its ally Bashar al-Assad, whilst the Syrian regime continues to seek to recruit and mobilize all forces, supporters and allies for the “life and death” battle it is facing.
In Damascus, there are those who are seeking to expand the battlefield from Syria into Lebanon, from Homs to Tripoli and from Qardaha to Southern Lebanon.
In my view, Bashar al-Assad, his family, sect, supports and party will not be the only ones who will pay the price for the Syrian revolution. I believe that Syria’s agents in Lebanon will also have to pay the price for this as well!