LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 02/12

Bible Quotation for today/
Matthew 24,23-31/Then if anyone says to you, "Look! Here is the Messiah!" or "There he is!" do not believe it. For false messiahs and false prophets will appear and produce great signs and omens, to lead astray, if possible, even the elect. Take note, I have told you beforehand. So, if they say to you, "Look! He is in the wilderness", do not go out. If they say, "Look! He is in the inner rooms", do not believe it. For as the lightning comes from the east and flashes as far as the west, so will be the coming of the Son of Man. Wherever the corpse is, there the vultures will gather. ‘Immediately after the suffering of those days the sun will be darkened, and the moon will not give its light; the stars will fall from heaven, and the powers of heaven will be shaken. Then the sign of the Son of Man will appear in heaven, and then all the tribes of the earth will mourn, and they will see "the Son of Man coming on the clouds of heaven" with power and great glory. And he will send out his angels with a loud trumpet call, and they will gather his elect from the four winds, from one end of heaven to the other.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Electoral reform “debate” in Lebanon is a joke/Now Lebanon/October 01/12
Lebanon’s Salafists to enter electoral politics/Nadine Elali/Now Lebanon/October 01/12
Syria and Skype diplomacy/By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 01/12
Are our armies being divided/By Emad El Din Adeeb/Asharq Alawsat/October 01/12

Romney: Obama deliberately causing rift between Israel, US
By JPOST.COM STAFF 10/01/2012/US Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney pens op-ed in WSJ accusing Obama of downgrading bilateral relations, maintaining a weak Middle East policy that could end up pulling US "into the maelstrom." Photo: REUTERS /US Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Sunday accused US President Barack Obama of deliberately creating a rift between Jerusalem and Washington, in an opinion piece he penned in the Wall Street Journal. In his article entitled "A New Course for the Middle East," Romney wrote that he believes the US Administration has failed to advance American interests in the region, citing Israel as an example of an ally that has been ignored and let down. "The president began his term with the explicit policy of creating 'daylight' between our two countries," Romney wrote. US Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice had used the same expression last month to deny any rift between the two countries in an interview with CNN, saying "the United States is in constant communication with Israel" and adding "there is no daylight" between Jerusalem and Washington.
Related: •PM’s camp says NYC trip cleared air with US•Source: PM won't use Iran threat for political gain Romney continued: Obama "recently downgraded Israel from being our 'closest ally' in the Middle East to being only 'one of our closest allies.' It's a diplomatic message that will be received clearly by Israel and its adversaries alike. He dismissed Israel's concerns about Iran as mere 'noise' that he prefers to 'block out.' And at a time when Israel needs America to stand with it, he declined to meet with Prime Minister [Binyamin] Netanyahu."
Romney has been a vocal critic of the US president's policies in the Middle East, often deriding him for weakness in confronting Islamism and for downgrading ties with Israel, saying he is "throwing Israel under the bus." Obama maintains that US-Israel ties are as strong as ever, citing record defense aid to Jerusalem.Turning to the Iranian issue, Romney called for the US to make clear that Washington will not accept further nuclear proliferation. "When we say an Iranian nuclear-weapons capability—and the regional instability that comes with it—is unacceptable, the ayatollahs must be made to believe us," he wrote. Romney made the case that happenings in the Middle East directly affect the United States. " If the Middle East descends into chaos, if Iran moves toward nuclear breakout, or if Israel's security is compromised, America could be pulled into the maelstrom," he wrote. "We still have time to address these threats, but it will require a new strategy toward the Middle East," he wrote.

Iran: Israel is world's laughing stock
Dudi Cohen/09.30.12/ Israel News
Top official in Tehran says Netanyahu's UN speech 'is mocked by entire world,' brands PM's bomb diagram as 'silly reaction' to Islamic Republic's 'growing power'
A senior Iranian official derided Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's UN General Assembly speech, and asserted that the Islamic Republic's "growing power and influence" have angered Jerusalem, the Iranian FARS news agency reported Sunday. "The fake regime of Israel is mocked by everyone in the world today, although such cheap actions of the leaders of the occupying Zionist regime are nothing new," top foreign ministry official Hassan Qashqavi said, referring to the cartoon-like bomb illustration that the prime minister presented at the UN General Assembly meeting on Thursday. Netanyahu used the diagram and a red marker to demonstrate the Iran's nuclear progress and press the international community to set a "red line" that would stop the atom program in its tracks. Netanyahu's General Assembly Address Qashqavi, who was speaking at a ceremony in Iran's southern city of Kangan, further claimed that Tehran's might had angered Israeli officials so much that they were driven to using "silly" props. Netanyahu, who returned to Israel from the US on Sunday, expressed contentment with his speech.
"During my visit here we drew a clear red line for Iran's nuclear program and we strengthened our coordination with the US administration on the issue," the prime minister wrote on his Facebook page prior to his flight. "I will continue to make every effort to ensure that the world's most dangerous country doesn't obtain the world's most dangerous weapon."
Despite the mockery on the part of the Iranians, the General Assembly week ended with an embarrassing incident for the delegation from Tehran; a cameraman who accompanied President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to New York decided to defect to the US. According to some reports, Hassan Golhandan was soon expected to reunite with his family, which has left Iran for Turkey and now plans to continue to the US.

Syria: Hezbollah training Alawite elite force
By Caroline Akoum
Beirut, Asharq Al-Awsat- The Syrian military is forming a new elite force of made up of 60,000 fighters, according to a report from the "tar-Tass news agency. The agency cited an expert at the London-based International Strategic Research Institute as saying that "western intelligence has obtained information that the armed security regiments (the shabbihah) that are made up of the Alawite community would be integrated in a division similar to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards."The expert pointed out that the preparation and training of this elite division is being done by Iranian experts in Syria who number around 2,000 and added, “We are expecting the number of government forces to double in the coming months which portends a prolongation of the conflict in Syria and provides Al-Assad's regime with new prospects." According to British analysts' conclusions, this division that is being set up will when necessary provide protection for the Alawite areas on the Mediterranean coast.
Commenting on this information, the Free Syrian Army’s (FSA) deputy chief of staff, Colonel Arif al-Hamud, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the regime resorted from the beginning of the revolution to forming divisions it called "popular committees" in the Alawite areas that are made up of the community's members. It armed and subjected them to military crash courses by Syrian intelligence services.
"But the regime is today resorting to turning these popular committees into military regiments that are sent to the hot areas and the best evidence is what happened in Darat Izzah in Aleppo countryside when the FSA succeeded in killing around 40 shabbihah elements from one village, Wadi al-Uyun," Al-Hamud told Asharq Al-Awsat.
"We have confirmed testimonies by officers working in military intelligence and special forces who defected recently confirming that Iranian experts and from the Lebanese Hezbollah have started to run courses for trainees from the special forces and military intelligence, the majority of them Alawites in addition to some Sunni officers. These started in February and are continuing to this day with the course running between three and four weeks in (Al-Durayj) area that is near Damascus which was before then a training center for the Special Forces before the storm troopers and paratroopers' school was built." Al-Hamud added. The FSA's deputy chief of staff asserted that these officers who have defected had also taken these courses which focused on sniper and individual killing by forming small units capable of carrying out lightning and quick operations. Al-Hamud went on to say that these divisions being professionally trained might form the nucleus of a special army that the regime is establishing for the purpose of suppressing the revolution, confronting the FSA and protecting the Alawite state, adding that a large quantity of military equipment and heavy weapons were recently transferred to the Alawite areas.

LF bans Aoun from visiting Jbeil church
October 01, 2012 01:17 AM The Daily Star
BEIRUT: MP Michel Aoun’s tour to the northern district of Jbeil was marred by a minor security incident Sunday when supporters of the Lebanese Forces prevented him from visiting a church in the village of Mayfouq where LF’s Civil War martyrs are buried. The Free Patriotic Movement leader began a two-day tour of Jbeil Saturday as part of preparations for the 2013 parliamentary elections.
One stop on Aoun’s trip was a visit to Sayidat Ilij Church in Mayfouq, where a Mass was held for the souls of the “Lebanese Resistance Martyrs.” This refers to LF militiamen killed during the 1975-90 Civil War.Some LF militiamen were also killed by Aoun’s self-declared war on the LF militia in 1990, when Aoun was the commander of the Army. The dead LF militiamen were buried in a cemetery near the church and Aoun was supposed to lay a wreath at their tombs.
Mayfouq, whose residents and relatives of the martyrs are mostly LF supporters, opposed Aoun’s visit to the tombs of the “Lebanese Resistance Martyrs,” calling it “a provocation.”
Amid heavy deployment by security forces in rainy weather in Mayfouq, the residents and relatives of the LF martyrs formed “a large human shield” at the church’s entrance to prevent Aoun from entering the church and visiting the tombs. “We oppose Aoun’s visit because it will desecrate the martyrs’ tombs and is a provocation,” a relative of one of the LF martyrs said.
A minor incident occurred when LF supporters shouted slogans against Aoun’s visit as his convoy reached Mayfouq’s square, prompting the FPM leader’s bodyguards to go on alert and brandish their rifles. The state-run National News Agency said that security forces intervened to resolve the problem and clear the way for Aoun’s convoy to proceed to the town of Bijjeh.
After being barred from visiting Sayidat Ilij Church, Aoun, speaking in Mayfouq’s garden, said: “A martyr is not the property of anyone; he is for all the country.”
During his visit to the town of Lahfed, Aoun said: “We will not talk about the slogans raised in Ilij. We want our visit to take place amid love and brotherhood. We have written history with the true blood that defended Lebanon’s territory.”Aoun began his visit to Jbeil touring the villages of Bir al-Heet, Qartaba, Aqoura and Ihmej.
The FPM leader said that reform was necessary in government to change his rivals’ previous financial policies and said his alliance with Hezbollah has resulted in stability.
He also spoke about the crisis in Syria, warning against extremist groups in Lebanon. “We fear the fall of Syria because in that case, extremism would be strengthened, especially as it has infiltrated north Lebanon.”The FPM leader, who supports the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, said: “What is happening in Syria will actually affect us in Lebanon.”
He scoffed at the theory held by Western states that the 18-month-old uprising in Syria was over human rights and democracy.
“If these states, which speak about human rights, freedom and democracy, had an iota of concern over these rights in our country, the Palestinians would not have been in our country and they would have given them their natural rights in their land and their identity and they [Palestinians] would have returned to their home country,” Aoun told a ceremony in the village of Ihmej.
Aoun’s trip to Jbeil came a week after he said he escaped an assassination attempt in the southern city of Sidon while returning from a visit to the town of Jezzine the south.

Future bloc MP Mouin Merhebi: Wahhab, Franjieh to be blamed for Akkar violence,
September 30, 2012 /Future bloc MP Mouin Merhebi on Sunday held former Lebanese ministers Wiam Wahhab and Suleiman Franjieh responsible for any “drop of blood” that might be shed in North Lebanon’s Akkar, according to the National News Agency. Wahhab is the leader of the Druze Arab Tawhid Party and Franjieh spearheads the Christian Marada Movement. The two are affiliated with the pro-Syrian regime March 8 alliance led by the powerful Shiite group Hezbollah. Merhebi also warned against attempts to drag Akkar’s citizens into the Syrian crisis.
The opposition Sunni MP was speaking during a visit to a number of Lebanese border towns located in Wadi Khaled where he examined the situation of Syrian refugees, including Lebanese people who fled violence-stricken Syria. Merhebi reiterated his call for the Lebanese government to “carry out its national duty to protect [Lebanon] and defend its citizens who are [witnessing] daily Syrian attacks along the Lebanese border.” He also called again on the relevant authorities to provide humanitarian assistance to the Syrian refugees. Moreover, Merhebi underscored the need for the Lebanese army to be “immediately” deployed along the northern Lebanese border.More than 30,000 people have died in 18 months of violence since the outbreak of a revolt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The United Nations puts the death toll at 20,000. Lebanon's political scene is deeply divided over the Syrian revolt, with the Western-backed opposition supporting the uprising and Hezbollah backing Assad’s Baath regime. -NOW Lebanon

Electoral reform “debate” in Lebanon is a joke
Now Lebanon/September 28, 2012
When security forces outside of the parliament building beat up activists demanding a reformed electoral law last week, we doubt they realized how perfectly their actions reflected the current “debate” the political elite are having. Put simply, the law that will govern the 2013 elections – around eight months away – will no doubt be a modified version of the law used in 2009 with little real reform. The demonstrating activists were demanding, among other things, a law that replaces the current “winner-take-all” system of divvying up the seats in a given district with proportional representation.
A law based on proportionality was approved by the cabinet in August. However, the districts were cut in a way to ensure March 8 would win a majority, meaning there is no possible way March 14 would ever vote for it in parliament – and the legislature must approve the electoral law that finally gets put into place. This seems more of an attempt to win points for trying rather than an honest attempt at changing the system. Since then, the ball now seems to be in the Christians’ court. Lawmakers with Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement are floating the “Orthodox Proposal,” which calls for each sect electing its own MPs (i.e., Sunnis only vote for Sunni politicians). This, again, is calculated politics.
The Christians generally dislike the 2009 law because, they argue, Christians only really get to choose around 30 of the 64 parliament seats allotted to Christians. For example, the MPs who fill the three seats in Bcharre, an almost entirely Christian district, are “chosen” by Christians, whereas the Christian seats in cities like Beirut and Tripoli are not really “chosen” by Christians as both are predominantly Muslim cities, or so the argument goes.
Aoun is trying to sell himself as the top protector of Christian interests in Lebanon, but he backed a proposal that embraces sectarianism so wholeheartedly, it stands no chance of winning. He knows that but wants to be able to look at Christian voters and say, “I’ve tried the hardest to secure your rights.”The Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party are taking a softer tone, but playing the same game. During a Thursday Parliamentary committee meeting, they tabled a proposal to cut Lebanon into 50 districts (up from 26 in 2009) for exactly the same reason Aoun is touting the “Orthodox Proposal” – so named because it was drafted by leaders from the Orthodox Christian sects and signed off on by the Maronite Church in late 2011.Under the LF and Kataeb law, Christians would “choose” more than 40 Christian MPs. An improvement over the 2009 law and not as impossible to pass as the “Orthodox Proposal,” but it, also, will go nowhere. In reality, the Christians are in a “pre-campaign campaign” as Antoine Haddad of the Democratic Renewal Movement put it in an interview with NOW Lebanon. They’re using the “debate” on the law for politicking when they all know full well that very little is going to change. In the end, the same kleptocrats who are so disastrously “running” the country will remain in power. Talk of reform is a joke, and we should stop letting them fool us.

Lebanon’s Salafists to enter electoral politics
Nadine Elali/Now Lebanon/September 30, 2012
Salafists across the region have emerged from the Arab Spring with considerable power in countries like Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. In Lebanon, Salafists are also trying to broaden their political clout and have decided to enter electoral politics by establishing a new party that is expected to take part in the 2013 elections. While the move may create a rift among Salafist groups that prohibit political action, it is not expected to change the political dynamics in the country. Salafism began in the 1950s with Sheikh Salem al-Shahhal, who founded the Islamic Association for Guidance and Charity in Lebanon to spread the call, or dawa. The association is now run by his son, Sheikh Dai al-Islam al-Shahhal. According to Zakari al-Masri, a Salafist cleric and professor of theology, most Salafists in Lebanon focused on spreading the call and prohibited participating in politics because, doctrinally, Salafists reject “the legitimacy of post-Caliphate secular states. I expect that the decision to enter politics will cause a rift among the Salafists themselves, before anything else,” he said. But there has been an emergence of new-wave Salafists across the region. These Salafists, according to a Lebanese Salafist cleric who did not want to be named as he is involved in a political group, believe that battles should be taken to the ballots. Sheikh Salman al-Odah, a Saudi cleric, was an influential preacher of this new trend. “However, following the September 11 events, his new trend was weakened in light of the conflict between the US administration and Al-Qaeda, which gave way from more radicalism,” the cleric said.
Like other Salafist groups in the region, some new-wave Salafists in Lebanon are in the process of establishing a political party that will run candidates in the 2013 elections, said Sheikh Salem al-Rafei, an influential Salafist cleric in Tripoli who is consulting on the formation of the party, but who is not a member.
“The party will not be confined to Tripoli,” he said. “It will include Salafists from all over Lebanon, and it will make alliances with other political coalitions just like in any normal political process.”
Their platform will deal with issues regarding Sharia law, but they will not call for it to be the primary source of legislation in the country. “We live in a multi-confessional country; Sunnis are not a majority. We believe in coexistence, but the party will call for the rights of the Sunni community in Lebanon,” said Rafei.
The anonymous Lebanese cleric added that all the party needs to do now is to obtain an official license before it announces its formation. “We are looking for key figures in different practices and from different fields, such as medicine, engineering and programming. There will be committees: a political one, an economic one and a media office,” the cleric said. “We will not copy other Salafist parties or adopt a model similar to others in the region, but we aim to learn from their experiences and avoid their mistakes.”
Both clerics emphasized that influential sheikhs will not be members of the party, but will act as advisers. The party will be comprised only of civilians.
According to Tripoli MP Mosbah Ahdab, although Salafists do not represent the entire Sunni community, they do exist and should be entitled to representation. But he does not believe that the Salafist party running in the upcoming elections will cause much of a change in the political or electoral dynamics in Lebanon.
“There is a certain stream in Tripoli… and [Salafist] groups represent a certain percentage of people… It is very important to represent all the different aspects of the city, and so there should be those who represent the traditions and conservatism of Tripoli also,” Ahdab said. “They have a right to practice their belief without being detained. Many Islamists to this day remain in prison with no clear accusation or trial. They have a right to better standards of living in Tripoli and to more job opportunities.”

Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai rejects return to 1960 election law
October 01, 2012/By Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai warned Sunday that a return to the 1960 election law would threaten Lebanon’s sectarian coexistence and diversity, in the latest diatribe by the influential Maronite Church against the winner-takes-all system used in the 2009 parliamentary polls.
Rai’s remarks came as officials from both sides of the political divide bickered over which electoral law should be adopted for next year’s parliamentary polls.
Reflecting deep divisions even among Christian parties in the rival March 8 and March 14 camps, Rai said Christian lawmakers would study three proposed draft election laws and choose one that best represents everyone. He reiterated the Maronite Church’s opposition to the 1960 election law which has also been criticized by March 14 Christian parties for failing to ensure a fair Christian representation in Parliament in previous elections.
“We did not issue a ban on this [1960] law. Rather, we said what all the Lebanese are saying publicly and secretly. We have said that no one wants the 1960 law because it was at the root of what we are in [lack of fair Christian representation] today. We have said this fact publicly,” Rai told reporters at Rafik Hariri International Airport before leaving on a visit to Hungary.
He was referring to Friday’s call by the Maronite Church for a new election law that can ensure fair Christian representation in the 2013 parliamentary elections, while rejecting the 1960 law, which adopts the qada as an electoral district and is based on a winner-takes-all system.
“For the sake of Lebanon and understanding and in order to emerge from what we are in [divisions] today, we should not return to the 1960 law but find a new law that can ensure a true representation for everyone and allow citizens to elect their MPs and hold them accountable,” Rai said.
He added that the Maronite Church was seeking to bring Christian parties together so that they can reach an agreement on a new electoral law.
“We [Maronite Church] do not have an opinion on any [election] law, nor we demand any law. But we say because the 1960 law was at the root of what we are in today, and because we really want to live in diversity, unity and coexistence with mutual respect and equality without any pressure on any party, we should not return to the 1960 law,” Rai said.
Referring to Friday’s meeting of the Bkirki Committee, which includes Christian MPs from March 8 and March 14 parties and former Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud, Rai said Christian lawmakers would study three proposed draft election laws and choose one that best represents everyone.
“Maronites are in agreement and they have announced that they will discuss with their fellow parliamentarians the three draft election laws and will choose one that ensures the best representation for everyone,” Rai said. Lebanon’s leading Christian parties are divided over the best electoral law to ensure a true Christian representation in Parliament.
MPs from the joint parliamentary committees are studying three electoral draft laws: The government’s approved draft law that would divide Lebanon into 13 medium-sized districts based on a system of proportional representation; a draft law proposed by MP Michel Aoun’s parliamentary Change and Reform bloc that would allow every sect to elect its own MPs under a proportional representation system with Lebanon as a single district; and a proposal for small electoral districts announced by March 14 Christian lawmakers.
A fourth proposal was made by Future MP Nabil de Freij and aims at increasing the number of seats in Parliament.
Rai left Sunday for a three-day visit to Hungary where he is expected to meet Church and government officials. He will also visit Rome and participate in the Synod workshop for Archbishops headed by Pope Benedict XVI. Lebanon’s 2009 parliamentary polls were held according to a version of the 1960 law, which many blame for inciting sectarian feelings and depriving minorities of representation.
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his March 14 allies have rejected the government’s draft electoral law, saying it was designed to serve the interests of Hezbollah and its March 8 allies. Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt has rejected the government’s proportional representation draft law as well as the March 14 proposal for small electoral districts, favoring the current electoral law.
Beirut MP Mohammad Qabbani from Hariri’s Future bloc said the bloc accepted the proposal for small electoral districts even though this was not its first choice. “The best [election] law is the one based on the Taif Accord, whereby each governorate is adopted as an electoral district,” he told the Voice of Lebanon radio station.
Meanwhile, Aoun warned that an electoral victory by the March 14 coalition would be fatal for the country. He said a government formed by the March 14 parties would be worse than Syria’s domination of Lebanon for nearly three decades. “If they [March 14] reach government, that will be a fatal choice worse than what happened to us during the time of the Syrian tutelage because this time they will carry out a radical coup in the heart of the Lebanese society,” Aoun told supporters in the town of Ihmej during his tour of the northern district of Jbeil.
He accused March14 Christian parties of seeking to “dismember” the country with their proposal for small electoral districts. “I support proportional representation even if it makes us lose seven parliamentarians in four provinces. We are looking for a fair representation.”Hezbollah’s Minister of State for Administrative Reform Mohammad Fneish renewed his party’s support for the government’s proportional representation draft law, saying it can ensure the best representation. He also criticized the March 14 proposal for small electoral districts.
“This system [proportional representation], which has been adopted in all world states, takes into account the problem of diversity and gives a chance to all political parties regardless of their size to be represented in the political process.”

Events in Syria have no implications for Hezbollah's arms: Qaouk
September 30, 2012/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Hezbollah will retain its arms regardless of the outcome of the crisis in Syria or the possibility of a March 14 victory in the 2013 parliamentary elections, a senior party figure said Sunday. “We say to March 14 and those who finance this party from regional and international countries that the formula of the ‘Army, people and resistance’ is too strong and firm to be shaken by elections whatever the results and development in Syria whatever the outcome,” Sheikh Nabil Qaouk said. Qaouk, deputy head of Hezbollah's Executive Council, delivered the speech at a graduation ceremony in south Lebanon. Hezbollah has long maintained that the tripartite formula of the “Army, people and resistance” is the only means of defending Lebanon against Israeli aggression; however, the March 14 coalition has repeatedly asked the party to surrender its arms to the state. “This formula was made with blood and will remain until the grand victory; the return of [Israeli occupied] Shebaa Farms and Kfar Shuba Hills,” Qaouk added. He also said that the March 14 coalition are looking to eradicate the formula by ridding Hezbollah of its arms as they bet on the fall of the Lebanese party’s ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad. President Michel Sleiman has proposed a national defense strategy that would benefit from Hezbollah’s arms to rival political leaders at the recent National Dialogue session. Under the proposal, Hezbollah would not hand its arms over to the Army, as demanded by the March 14 coalition, nor would there be coordination between the resistance and the Army, the defense strategy that Hezbollah has backed. Qaouk also touched on the ongoing debate with regards to a new electoral law aimed at replacing the 1960s law used in the 2009 parliamentary elections.
“They [March 14] seek a law that fits their projects to reach governance and carry out foreign commitments,” he said. “They want elections as means for revenge and domination and that would lead the country to crises and great dangers.”

Azerbaijan eyes aiding Israel against Iran
September 30, 2012 /Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev holds a news conference after meeting NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen at the Alliance headquarters in Brussels February 15, 2012. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir . Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu exudes impatience, saying Tehran is barely a year from a "red line" for atomic capacity. Many fellow Israelis, however, fear a unilateral strike, lacking U.S. forces, would fail against such a large and distant enemy. But what if, even without Washington, Israel were not alone?
Azerbaijan, the oil-rich ex-Soviet republic on Iran's far northern border, has, say local sources with knowledge of its military policy, explored with Israel how Azeri air bases and spy drones might help Israeli jets pull off a long-range attack. That is a far cry from the massive firepower and diplomatic cover that Netanyahu wants from Washington. But, by addressing key weaknesses in any Israeli war plan - notably on refuelling, reconnaissance and rescuing crews - such an alliance might tilt Israeli thinking on the feasibility of acting without U.S. help.
It could also have violent side-effects more widely and many doubt Azeri President Ilham Aliyev would risk harming the energy industry on which his wealth depends, or provoking Islamists who dream of toppling his dynasty, in pursuit of favour from Israel. Yet despite official denials by Azerbaijan and Israel, two Azeri former military officers with links to serving personnel and two Russian intelligence sources all told Reuters that Azerbaijan and Israel have been looking at how Azeri bases and intelligence could serve in a possible strike on Iran.
"Where planes would fly from - from here, from there, to where? - that's what's being planned now," a security consultant with contacts at Azeri defence headquarters in Baku said. "The Israelis ... would like to gain access to bases in Azerbaijan." That Aliyev, an autocratic ally of Western governments and oil firms, has become a rare Muslim friend of the Jewish state - and an object of scorn in Tehran - is no secret; a $1.6-billion arms deal involving dozens of Israeli drones, and Israel's thirst for Azerbaijan's Caspian Sea crude, are well documented.
Israel's foreign minister visited Baku in April this year.
But a leaked U.S. diplomatic cable from 2009 quoted Aliyev, who succeeded his father in 2003, describing relations with Israel as "like an iceberg, nine tenths ... below the surface".
That he would risk the wrath of his powerful neighbour by helping wage war on Iran is, however, something his aides flatly deny; wider consequences would also be hard to calculate from military action in a region where Azerbaijan's "frozen" conflict with Armenia is just one of many elements of volatility and where major powers from Turkey, Iran and Russia to the United States, western Europe and even China all jockey for influence.
Nonetheless, Rasim Musabayov, an independent Azeri lawmaker and a member of parliament's foreign affairs committee, said that, while he had no definitive information, he understood that Azerbaijan would probably feature in any Israeli plans against Iran, at least as a contingency for refuelling its attack force:
"Israel has a problem in that if it is going to bomb Iran, its nuclear sites, it lacks refuelling," Musabayov told Reuters.
"I think their plan includes some use of Azerbaijan access.
"We have (bases) fully equipped with modern navigation, anti-aircraft defences and personnel trained by Americans and if necessary they can be used without any preparations," he added.
The administration of U.S. President Barack Obama has made clear it does not welcome Israel's occasional talk of war and that it prefers diplomacy and economic sanctions to deflect an Iranian nuclear programme that Tehran denies has military uses.
Having also invested in Azerbaijan's defences and facilities used by U.S. forces in transit to Afghanistan, Washington also seems unlikely to cheer Aliyev joining any action against Iran.
The Azeri president's team insist that that will not happen.
"No third country can use Azerbaijan to perpetrate an attack on Iran. All this talk is just speculation," said Reshad Karimov from Aliyev's staff. He was echoing similar denials issued in Baku and from Israel when the journal Foreign Policy quoted U.S. officials in March voicing alarm that Azeri-Israeli action could thwart U.S. diplomacy toward Iran and across the Caucasus.
Israeli officials dismiss talk of Azeri collaboration in any attack on Iran but decline public comment on specific details.
Even speaking privately, few Israeli officials will discuss the issue. Those who do are sceptical, saying overt use of Azeri bases by Israel would provoke too many hostile reactions. One political source did, however, say flying unmarked tanker aircraft out of Azerbaijan to extend the range and payloads of an Israeli bombing force might play a part in Israeli planning.
Though denying direct knowledge of current military thinking on Iran, the Israeli said one possibility might be "landing a refuelling plane there, made to look like a civilian airliner, so it could later take off to rendezvous mid-air with IAF jets".A thousand miles separates Tehran and Tel Aviv, putting much of Iran beyond the normal ranges of Israel's U.S.-made F-16 bombers and their F-15 escorts. So refuelling could be critical. There is far from unanimity among Israeli leaders about the likelihood of any strike on Iran's nuclear plants, whether in a wider, U.S.-led operation or not. Netanyahu's "red line" speech to the United Nations last week was seen by many in Israel as making any strike on Iran unlikely - for at least a few months.
Many, however, also assume Israel has long spied on and even sabotaged what the Western powers say are plans for atomic weapons which Israel says would threaten its very existence.
A second Israeli political source called the idea of Azerbaijan being either launch pad or landing ground for Israeli aircraft "ludicrous" - but agreed with the first source that it was fair to assume joint Israeli-Azeri intelligence operations.
The Azeri sources said such cooperation was established.
As part of last year's arms deal, Azerbaijan is building up to 60 Israeli-designed drones, giving it reconnaissance means far greater than many analysts believe would be needed just to guard oil installations or even to mount any operations against the breakaway, ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
"With these drones, (Israel) can indirectly watch what's happening in Iran, while we protect our borders," legislator Musabayov said - a view shared by Azeri former military sources.
Less reserved than Israeli officials, the sources in Azerbaijan and in Russian intelligence, which keeps a close eye on its former Soviet backyard, said Baku could offer Israel much more, however - though none believed any deal was yet settled.
The country, home to nine million people whose language is close to Turkish and who mostly share the Shi'ite Muslim faith of Iran, has four ex-Soviet air bases that could be suitable for Israeli jets, the Azeri sources said. They named central Kyurdamir, Gyanja in the west and Nasosny and Gala in the east.The Pentagon says it helped upgrade Nasosny airfield for NATO use. It also uses Azeri commercial facilities in transit to Afghanistan. But U.S. military aid to Azerbaijan is limited by Washington's role as a mediat

Israel finance minister says Iran economy "on verge of collapse"
Reuters – JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Iran's economy is edging towards collapse due to international sanctions over its controversial nuclear program, Israeli Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz said on Sunday.
Israel regards the prospect of its arch enemy developing nuclear weapons as a threat to its existence, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that, although sanctions are taking their toll, they are not yet forcing Iran to abandon work that could soon lead to a nuclear warhead.
However, Israeli officials appear increasingly ready to acknowledge the effect of recent American and European sanctions designed to restrict Iran's lifeline oil exports.
"The sanctions on Iran in the past year jumped a level," Steinitz told Israel Radio, noting that as finance minister, he follows Iran's economy.
"It is not collapsing, but it is on the verge of collapse. The loss of income from oil there is approaching $45-50 billion by the year's end," Steinitz said.
The United States, Israel's main ally, says it will not allow Tehran to produce the bomb, but sanctions should be given more time to work before force is considered.
American and Israeli commentators say a military strike to destroy Iran's nuclear plants, which Iran says are designed only to develop a nuclear generating capacity, could trigger a regional war with unforeseeable consequences.
In Israel too, some prominent political and military figures question Netanyahu's warning that Iran is so close to the threshold of nuclear capability that military action will soon be the only way to stop it.
But there has been no open split in his coalition over the issue. Steinitz praised the prime minister's speech to the U.N. General Assembly last week in which he used graphics to underscore the perceived Iranian threat.
SOARING INFLATION
An Israeli Foreign Ministry document leaked last week said sanctions had caused more damage to Iran's economy than at first thought and ordinary Iranians were suffering under soaring inflation, although this did not appear to be changing policy.
On Saturday, the Iranian currency slumped to an historic low of about 28,400 rials to the dollar, a fall of about 57 percent since June 2011, meaning a sharp rise in the price of imports.
"The Iranians are in great economic difficulties as a result of the sanctions," Steinitz said.
Parliamentary opponents of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad say sanctions are not a major cause of Iran's economic problems and accuse his government of mismanaging the economy.
"The first approach today is that authorities accept their mistakes and failures, second, that they not blame their mistakes on others, and third, that they invite all the pundits and experts to find a way to solve the problems of the economy," Iranian legislator Ezzatollah Yousefian was quoted as saying by the Mehr news agency.
Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman told Saturday's Haaretz daily that he believed Iran's Islamic theocracy would be toppled in a revolt like the one that toppled Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak last year.
"The opposition demonstrations that took place in Iran in June 2009 will come back in even greater force," he told the paper. "In my view, there's going to be an Iranian-style Tahrir revolution. The young generation are sick of being held hostage and sacrificing their future."
(Reporting by Ari Rabinovich in Jerusalem. Additional reporting by Yeganeh Torbati in Dubai; Writing by Douglas Hamilton; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

Killers in Syria must be held accountable - UK's Alistair Burt
By Mina al-Oraibi
New York, Asharq Al-Awsat – Despite the emphasis placed by Western countries, headed by the United States, Britain, and France, on the importance of reaching a political solution to the crisis in Syria, there is also a strong commitment to adopt a mechanism for holding the Syrian regime to account for the killings in the country.
In his statement to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting, Alistair Burt, British Under-Secretary of State for the Middle East and North Africa, said: "Those who are responsible for the killings and tragic violence in Syria must be held accountable". In response to a question about the possibility of granting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his aides immunity in return for stepping down from power, Burt answered clearly that "it is necessary to hold those responsible to account, and we cannot abandon this issue". However, at the same time, he pointed out that "a political solution is preferable" based on what the Syrians agree upon for the next stage, and stressed the need for a political mechanism that ensures the transition of power in Syria. Yet it seems that any initiative agreed upon by the Syrians will not include any provisions for immunity or guarantees for the Syrian President.
When asked whether it would be possible to adopt a mechanism such as the Gulf initiative, which paved the way for former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to relinquish power and hand over to his successor Abd-Rabbuh Mansur al-Hadi, with specific details regarding the manner of the power transition and preparations for elections in the country, Burt simply replied "I hope so". However, after a pause, he added: "I hope this happens, but we do not see any signs of it". He went on to say: "In the end, the Syrian people must decide", in reference to the role of the opposition, particularly those within Syria, in determining the course of the political process. It is worth noting that the Gulf initiative included an article stipulating Saleh’s immunity, but it does not seem as though this would be agreed upon internationally as far as Al-Assad is concerned.
The UK participated with Yemen and Saudi Arabia to chair the “Friends of Yemen” meeting in New York on Thursday morning. The UK continues to play a key role in supporting President al-Hadi, in addition to promoting the success of the forthcoming Yemeni national dialogue conference. This conference is expected to be held before the end of year in order to reach agreements upon a series of issues, including a new constitution and an election law, in preparation for elections to be held in the country. There are concerns that Yemeni parties opposed to the current situation will boycott the national dialogue, which means that the meeting would not be a comprehensive means of resolving the country’s problems.
With regards to the steps that the international community can take to urge all Yemeni parties to participate, Burt said: "In the end, these are issues for the Yemeni people to decide, but what was clear in the Friends of Yemen meeting, and in previous meetings with the international community, was that many issues can materialize to obstruct the path and this could cause serious damage to the future of Yemen". He added: "Any national dialogue requires compromise and requires that all parties sit down together at the table and put some issues aside. We support the President's full commitment to the dialogue, and the international community says to the the concerned parties: put your issues aside and do not waste this opportunity." Burt pointed out that "the support of the international community is very generous in terms of international aid", which means that Yemen has the chance to shape a better future if a policy of developmental reform and a national project are adopted.
In the event of "saboteurs" emerging to destabilize the political process in the country, as they were described in the closing statement made by the Friends of Yemen, in an indirect reference to former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, Burt emphasized that the international community could resort to the Security Council to hold them to account. The international community has the ability to impose sanctions on individuals as a means of applying political and economic pressure on them.
It is clear that there has been international satisfaction towards the new Yemeni President during the UN General Assembly meetings, and particularly after his meeting with US President Barack Obama. Burt said: "President al-Hadi has shown leadership and a willingness to take his country forward", referring to the steps that al-Hadi has embarked on so far, particularly the pursuit of al-Qaeda elements.

Syria and Skype diplomacy
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
At a time when the Syrian people are making amazing sacrifices to withstand the al-Assad killing machine, which is working to demolish everything in Syria just so that the tyrant of Damascus can remain in power, the Americans, as revealed by Asharq Al-Awsat in today’s edition, are communicating with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) via Skype!
Remarkably, UN-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi has also communicated with the FSA via Skype, so is this really what is needed? Can we say this is sufficient to do justice to the Syrian revolution, where nearly 30,000 people have died at the hands of the al-Assad regime, not to mention all those missing or displaced, and all the destruction? Of course not, what is required is to support the FSA militarily. This is not to fuel the conflict as some – led by Moscow – claim, but rather to accelerate the inevitable fall of what remains of the al-Assad regime, which doesn’t hesitate to use all forms of violence. Supporting the FSA, specifically with anti-aircraft weaponry, is what will put an end to the al-Assad regime that now relies solely on its air deterrence. The FSA is battling with al-Assad’s forces in the majority of Syrian cities, and al-Assad has lost control of the ground.
It is noteworthy today that despite the lack of military support for the FSA, the rebels are fighting al-Assad’s forces – which are backed financially and militarily by the Russians and the Iranians – in every direction and on several open fronts, with remarkable courage. Hence it is surprising that [international] communication with the FSA is only being conducted via Skype, when what is required is qualitative military support. What I have heard from those familiar with the course of events on the ground is that once qualitative military support arrives, specifically anti-aircraft weaponry, projections indicate a quick resolution to the conflict, especially, as I noted above, because al-Assad’s forces rely on the air force. The FSA’s attempts to bring down al-Assad’s warplanes are hit and miss at best, but this would not be the case if they were in possession of capable weapons. Currently, the regime’s air force is setting Syrian cities ablaze in an act of madness, which only indicates al-Assad’s desperation.
As is well known, and was confirmed to me by informed sources, Washington will not move until after the forthcoming election, which is what I discussed last week. However, we cannot abandon the Syrians and the FSA, at a time when al-Assad is stepping up his military operations largely in a hope of achieving progress on the ground before the US elections, with Russian and Iranian support. In turn, this requires the friends of Syria to provide qualitative military support for the FSA, under the clear supervision of what must be a joint operations room for all active participants, not one for each state or team. Yes, there must be an operations room and clear military support, not communication via Skype. Al-Assad does not use Facebook to suppress the revolution; he kills and destroys using every criminal method.Thus we must respond on the ground and support the FSA, but Skype should be left to friends and acquaintances.

Are our armies being divided?
By Emad El Din Adeeb/Asharq Alawsat/ِThere is a serious piece of news that we should pay full attention to. The news is that there is a strong inclination within the regular Syrian army to form an armed division of the Alawite sect, comprising of 60,000 fighters supported by some Shiite forces and leaders from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
If this is true, and this division is to be formed, then it is a serious omen for the structure of the regular Syrian army, which could slide into an armed sectarian impasse. In turn, one of the largest Arab armies could become fragmented and divided.
It is no coincidence that the national Iraqi army was lured into a similar state during the era of US military ruler Paul Bremer, who fragmented the Iraqi military establishment and hence it transformed into sectarian or ethnic groupings. As a result, the Kurds went to Iraqi Kurdistan, the Shiites joined sectarian fighting divisions and the Sunnis were caught between the regular army, the Baathist forces and the militant al-Qaeda organization. As for the Christian forces, they abandoned the military and Iraq as a whole.
The Egyptian army is the largest Arab army in terms of size and the 10th largest globally, with a naval force that ranks first in Africa and second in the Mediterranean region, and an air force that ranks second in the region after Israel. However, recently it has been forced to divert its attention towards Egypt’s internal situation, and has engaged strongly in the governance of the country and the maintenance of its security. The role of the Egyptian army used to be to protect the country's borders and defend its national security, however now it has transformed into the "watchman" looking over all Egypt’s streets to undertake the protection of citizens, control traffic and maintain public buildings and property. It has been forced to shoulder an enormous responsibility.
Egyptian army personnel have found themselves transporting fuel and goods, guarding banks, functioning as paramedics for the injured, and serving as an outlet for the rage of angry protestors.
Hence we have witnessed separate attempts to fragment and undermine the armies of three of the most important military institutions in the Arab world: Egypt, Iraq and Syria.
The division of these institutions will create volatile fragments for many years to come, which will one day prompt us to bemoan our fate and long for the time when our armed forces were united.