Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for November 24/12
Pope elevates Rai and 5 other cardinals
Show of Unity as al-Rahi Becomes Cardinal
Army in Lebanon arrests 5 Syrians over Ashoura attack plot
Larijani reiterates support for Syria dialogue
Report: Berri, Miqati not in Rome over Rejection to Become 'Accessories'
PSP Delegation Meets Berri over Jumblat's Initiative
Hezbollah-Hamas ties at stalemate, official says
Zasypkin: Hizbullah Adheres to Stability, Israeli Aggression on Lebanon Unlikely
Israeli attack against Lebanon unlikely: Russia
Reports: Five Syrians Arrested for Plotting to Bomb Ashoura Procession
Arab Spring economies will eventually rebound
Unilateral Mursi move ignites clashes
Sabra: Unity, gains will sway Assad allies
Iran president congratulates Hamas on 'victory'
Syria rebels ready final assault on Sheikh Suleiman base
Hamas: Ending Gaza arms smuggling not part of cease-fire
Israel firms up security as Gaza truce takes hold
Egypt protesters tear-gassed as world concern grows
Bomb at Pakistan Shiite procession kills 7

Army arrests 5 Syrians over Ashoura attack plot
November 24, 2012/ The Daily Star
SIDON, Lebanon: Lebanese Army Intelligence arrested Friday five Syrian nationals in the southern town of Nabatieh as they were preparing explosives to be used against mourners commemorating the occasion of Ashoura Sunday, security sources told The Daily Star.The five Syrians were arrested in al-Maslakh neighborhood of Nabatieh.Lebanese Shiites commemorate the death of Imam Hussein, Prophet Mohammad’s grandson, by holding mass rallies in Beirut’s southern suburbs, the Bekaa, and several towns in the south. The town of Nabatieh usually hosts the biggest such rally in the southern part of the country.A statement posted on a website affiliated to Al-Qaeda had threatened earlier this year to target Shiites in Lebanon over the alleged role of Hezbollah in backing President Bashar Assad

Pope elevates Rai and 5 other cardinals
November 24, 2012/By Nicole Winfield/Daily Star
VATICAN CITY: Lebanon’s Beshara Rai is among six new cardinals who joined the elite club of churchmen who will elect the next pope Saturday, bringing a more geographically diverse mix into the European-dominated College of Cardinals.
Pope Benedict XVI presided over the ceremony Saturday in St. Peter's Basilica to formally elevate the six men, who hail from Colombia, India, Nigeria, the Philippines and the United States as well as Lebanon. As Benedict read each name aloud in Latin, applause and cheers erupted from the pews.
In explaining his choices for this "little consistory," Benedict said he was essentially completing his last cardinal-making ceremony held in February, when he elevated 22 cardinals, the vast majority of them European archbishops and Vatican bureaucrats.
The six new cardinals "show that the church is the church of all peoples and speaks in all languages," Benedict said last month. "It's not the church of one continent, but a universal church."
That said, the College of Cardinals remains heavily European even with the new additions: Of the 120 cardinals under age 80 and thus eligible to vote in a conclave to elect a new pope, more than half - 62 - are European. Critics have complained that the College of Cardinals no longer represents the church, since Catholicism is growing in Asia and Africa but is in crisis in much of Europe.
With the new additions, the College of Cardinals is a tad more multinational: Latin America, which boasts half of the world's Catholics, now has 21 voting-age cardinals; North America, 14; Africa, 11; Asia, 11; and Oceana, one.
Among the six new cardinals is Archbishop James Harvey, the American prefect of the papal household. As prefect, Harvey was the direct superior of the pope's former butler, Paolo Gabriele, who is serving an 18 month prison sentence in a Vatican jail for stealing the pope's private papers and leaking them to a reporter in the greatest Vatican security breach in modern times.
The Vatican spokesman has denied Harvey, 63, is leaving because of the scandal. But on the day the pope announced Harvey would be made cardinal, he also said he would leave the Vatican to take up duties as the archpriest of one of the Vatican's four Roman basilicas. Such a face-saving promotion-removal is not an uncommon Vatican personnel move.
Harvey's departure has led to much speculation about who would replace him in the delicate job of organizing the pope's daily schedule and arranging audiences.
Aside from Harvey, the new cardinals are: Abuja, Nigeria Archbishop John Olorunfemi Onaiyekan; Bogota, Colombia Archbishop Ruben Salazar Gomez; Manila, Philippines Archbishop Luis Antonio Tagle; and the major Archbishop of the Trivandrum of the Siro-Malankaresi in India, His Beatitude Baselios Cleemis Thottunkal.
Cardinals serve as the pope's closest advisers, but their main task is to elect a new pope.
The six new cardinals are all under age 80. Their nominations bring the number of voting-age cardinals to 120, 67 of whom were named by Benedict, all but ensuring that his successor will be chosen from a group of like-minded prelates. Saturday's consistory marks the first time in decades that not a single European or Italian has been made a cardinal - a statistic that has not gone unnoticed in Italy. Italy still has the lions' share of cardinals, though, with 28 voting-age "princes" of the church. Rai is the fourth patriarch from Lebanon to be appointed cardinal, alongside Patriarchs Nasrallah Butros Sfeir, Anthony Peter Khoraish and Boulos Meouchi, who was the first Lebanese to be appointed cardinal in 1965. – With The Daily Star

Show of Unity as al-Rahi Becomes Cardinal
Naharnet/Politically divided Lebanese made on Saturday a show of unity during an official ceremony in Rome that allowed Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi to join the elite club of churchmen who will elect the next pope. Pope Benedict XVI formally elevated five other prelates at the ceremony that was held at St. Peter's Basilica, bestowing red hats and gold rings on them.
With the new additions, the College of Cardinals is more multinational: Latin America, which boasts half of the world's Catholics, now has 21 voting-age cardinals; North America, 14; Africa, 11; Asia, 11; and Oceana, one. In addition to al-Rahi, the new cardinals are: Archbishop James Harvey, the American prefect of the papal household. Abuja, Nigeria Archbishop John Olorunfemi Onaiyekan; Bogota, Colombia Archbishop Ruben Salazar Gomez; Manila, Philippines Archbishop Luis Antonio Tagle; and the major Archbishop of the Trivandrum of the Siro-Malankaresi in India, His Beatitude Baselios Cleemis Thottunkal. In explaining his choices for this "little consistory," Benedict said he was essentially completing his last cardinal-making ceremony held in February, when he elevated 22 cardinals, the vast majority of them European archbishops and Vatican bureaucrats.
Cardinals serve as the pope's closest advisers, but their main task is to elect a new pope.
The six new cardinals are all under age 80. Their nominations bring the number of voting-age cardinals to 120, 67 of whom were named by Benedict, all but ensuring that his successor will be chosen from a group of like-minded prelates. Around 500 officials and politicians led by President Michel Suleiman were among 1,500 Lebanese attending Saturday's ceremony.
Lebanese officials from across the political spectrum, except for Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Najib Miqati, were on hand for the consistory. Berri sent a representative and Miqati was represented by Information Minister Walid al-Daouq. On the eve of the event, the pope emphasized the importance of dialogue as a means of solving problems among Lebanon's bickering politicians.
He made his remark during a meeting with Suleiman. The pope also urged them to strengthen stability so that Lebanon remains “a model of interaction despite the difficulties” in the region. His choice to elevate al-Rahi is seen by observers as a sign of Vatican support for religious diversity in Lebanon, which Benedict said was a "model" for the region during a visit in September. The pope has called for peaceful coexistence between Islam and Christianity and has said Christians should stay in the Middle East despite rising Islamism.
SourceNaharnetAssociated PressAgence France Presse

Report: Berri, Miqati not in Rome over Rejection to Become 'Accessories'
Naharnet /Disagreement on the Lebanese official delegation's participation in Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi's appointment as cardinal in Rome prevented the attendance of Speaker Nabih Berri and Premier Najib Miqati, al-Liwaa daily reported on Saturday. The newspaper said that both Berri and Miqati refused to become “accessories” and wait in line following Suleiman's insistence to hold separate talks with Pope Benedict XVI on the eve of the ceremony. A similar scenario had taken place during the pope's visit to Beirut in September, al-Liwaa said. Following the disagreement, Suleiman decided to attend Saturday's ceremony alone, it added. Around 1,500 Lebanese personalities have arrived in the Vatican from Lebanon and other countries to attend the elevation of al-Rahi and five other prelates during the ceremony at St. Peter's Basilica. Suleiman met on Friday with Benedict XVI, who emphasized the importance of dialogue as a means of solving problems among Lebanon's bickering politicians. The pope also urged them to strengthen stability so that Lebanon remains “a model of interaction despite the difficulties” in the region.

PSP Delegation Meets Berri over Jumblat's Initiative
Naharnet/Cabinet ministers loyal to Progressive Socialist Party chief Walid Jumblat visited Speaker Nabih Berri in Ain el-Tineh on Saturday as part of the initiative aimed at resolving the country's political crisis. The same delegation met with President Michel Suleiman at Baabda Palace on Tuesday and is set to hold separate talks with Prime Minister Najib Miqati, Hizbullah and several parties to find consensus among them. Lebanon plunged in a political crisis on October 19 when Internal Security Forces Intelligence Branch chief Brigadier General Wissam al-Hasan was assassinated.
The March 14 opposition alliance boycotted political activity with its foes after it blamed Miqati's government for the killing and said it would not sit at the same dialogue table with Hizbullah.
Jumblat is seeking to convince political foes to attend a new round of national dialogue under Suleiman as an icebreaker by launching the initiative to steer the country away from “the ghost of strife.”

Reports: Five Syrians Arrested for Plotting to Bomb Ashoura Procession
Naharnet/The army on Friday arrested Syrian nationals who were preparing an explosive device with the aim of detonating it at an Ashoura procession set to be held on Saturday, media reports said.
"Army intelligence agents on Friday evening arrested five Syrians at a house in the Nabatiyeh neighborhood of al-Maslakh while they were preparing a 300-gram explosive device with the aim of detonating it during the Muharram (Ashoura) 9 procession that will be held tomorrow in the city of Nabatiyeh” in southern Lebanon, al-Jadeed television reported.
Army troops cordoned off the house and the detainees were taken to the headquarters of the army Intelligence Directorate in the southern city of Sidon, the TV network added.
Later on Friday, state-run National News Agency said “five people were arrested in the Nabatiyeh neighborhood of al-Maslakh as they were plotting for a subversive act in the area.”
“They are being interrogated by the army,” the agency added. The army, the Internal Security Forces and members of Hizbullah and AMAL Movement are taking strict security measures in areas witnessing Ashoura ceremonies and processions. The ten days of Ashoura are the most important days in the Shiite religious calendar. The last day of Ashoura, Muharram 10 in the Islamic lunar calendar, marks the climax of mourning for the death of reverred Imam Hussein bin Ali -- the grandson of the Prophet Mohammed – at the hands of the army of the caliph Yazid during the Battle of Karbala in 680 AD.

Israeli attack against Lebanon unlikely: Russia
November 24, 2012 /The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Israel is unlikely to launch an attack against Lebanon anytime soon, Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Zasypkin said in remarks published Saturday.
The ambassador’s remarks to As-Safir came a few days after a weeklong fighting inside and the outskirts of Gaza between Israel and Hamas that came to an end Wednesday with an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire.  According to the ambassador, Hezbollah’s Iranian made Ayoub drone sent over Israel in October was a violation of the U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, but so are the continuous Israeli breaches to Lebanon. He reiterated the need for all parties to abide by the U.N. resolution, which put an end to the July 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. The Ayoub drone was immediately shut down by Israel, but drew a number of local and international concerns about a possible confrontation between Lebanon and Israel. Zasypkin said that his country hails Hezbollah’s adherence to stability in Lebanon and said Russia’s ties with the group are “ongoing and constructive.”The Russian ambassador also reiterated support for Lebanon's policy of dissociation from the Syrian crisis, saying it is the most appropriate stance to be adopted for the current phase, as it prevents the 20-month-long Syrian conflict from spilling into Lebanon.

Hamas: Ending Gaza arms smuggling not part of cease-fire
By JPOST.COM STAFF 11/24/2012 11:10 Senior Hamas official Izzat al-Rishiq says deal with Israel to end fighting does not include Egyptian commitment to work with the US to stop the flow of weapons into Gaza. A senior Hamas official on Saturday claimed that the cease-fire deal it agreed to with Israel on Wednesday did not include an Egyptian guarantee to work with the US to prevent arms smuggling into Gaza. “It is not true, as some say, that the cease-fire agreement included that Egypt will work with special US units to prevent smuggling of weapons into Gaza. These are Israeli leaks aimed to ease the impact of their defeat,” Hamas's Izzat al-Rishiq wrote on his Facebook page.According to the unsigned agreement, Israel pledged to “stop all hostilities in the Gaza Strip land, sea and air including incursions and targeting of individuals.” Hamas agreed that “all Palestinian factions shall stop all hostilities from the Gaza Strip against Israel including rocket attacks and all attacks along the border.”According to the text of the agreement, the first time Israel has committed to anything in writing with Hamas, “opening the [Gaza] crossings and facilitating the movements of people and transfer of goods and refraining from restricting residents’ free movements and targeting residents in border areas and procedures of implementation shall be dealt with after 24 hours from the start of the cease-fire.”
The text of the agreement gave Egypt a key role as “sponsor” of the understanding, saying it “shall receive assurances from each party that the party commits to what was agreed upon.” In his press conference announcing the cease-fire on Wednesday, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said it was clear that Israel could not sit with arms folded in the face of efforts by its enemies to arm themselves.
“Therefore I agreed with [US] President [Barack] Obama that we will work together against the smuggling of weapons – the vast majority of which comes from Iran – to the terrorist organizations.”
Prior to the cease-fire on Wednesday, Egyptian security services seized a weapons consignment including Grad rockets, the Egyptian press reported.
Security sources said a gang had smuggled the consignment – consisting of 108 Grad rocket warheads and 19,646 rounds of ammunition – into the seaport of Marsa Matruh, according to Egyptian daily Al-Masry al-Youm. The consignment was most likely destined for Gaza but could also have been en route to buyers in Egypt’s increasingly lawless Sinai.
*Herb Keinon and Joanna Paraszczuk contributed to this report.

Hezbollah-Hamas ties at stalemate, official says
November 24, 2012/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Syria’s crisis has caused a stalemate in the relation between Hezbollah and Hamas, Osama Hamdan, a Hamas official in Lebanon told Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency Saturday. “Ties between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Hamas are currently at a stalemate as a result of the Syrian crisis,” Hamdan said. However, the official expected an improvement in the relation with Hezbollah soon after a weeklong conflict between Hamas and Israel came to an end Wednesday. “The relation with Hezbollah is expected to improve soon after the resistance’s victory in Gaza,” Osama Hamdan, a Hamas politburo member, said. Hezbollah has repeatedly voiced support for the Assad regime against rebels in the Syrian crisis which has been going on for some twenty months now. However, Hamas has refused to take Assad’s side although the Palestinian movement has always enjoyed the support of the Syrian authorities and Hamas leaders quit the Syrian capital in January of this year. Earlier in November, Syrian authorities raided and closed Damascus offices of Hamas after media reports said some Hamas fighters had joined forces with rebels fighting against the Assad regime.
“The relation with Hezbollah was very special, but it has come to a stalemate regarding the conflicting views over what is going on in Syria,” said Hamdan. “No one can ask the Palestinians to take stance that contradicts their convictions and will,” he added.

Egypt protesters tear-gassed as world concern grows
CAIRO, (AFP) - Anti-riot police fired tear gas on Saturday to disperse protesters camped out in Cairo's Tahrir Square as Western governments voiced growing concern over Islamist President Mohamed Morsi's assumption of sweeping powers. A hard core of opposition activists had spent the night in the iconic protest hub -- epicentre of the popular uprising that toppled veteran strongman Hosni Mubarak last year -- erecting some 30 tents, an AFP correspondent reported. But when more demonstrators attempted to join them in the morning, police responded with volleys of tear gas forcing them to retreat into surrounding streets. Opposition-led protests were held in most of Egypt's major cities on Friday sparking violent clashes in the canal city of Suez and the Mediterranean city of Alexandria, where offices of the Islamist Freedom and Justice Party, which backed Morsi for the presidency, were torched. The mainly secular liberal activists voiced determination to keep up the momentum of their protests against Morsi's decree on Thursday which placed his decisions beyond judicial scrutiny, vastly adding to his power. "Egypt is at the start of a new revolution because it was never our intention to replace one dictator with another," activist Mohammed al-Gamal told AFP, showing his broken spectacles and hand in a plaster cast than he said were the result of the police action. Washington, which only Wednesday had voiced fulsome praise for Morsi's role in brokering a truce between Isreal and Gaza's Hamas rulers to end eight days of deadly violence, led international criticism of the Islamist president's move.
Members of the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups were also out in strength on Friday in a show of support for the president in his move to prevent the courts dissolving the Islamist-dominated constituent assembly and upper house of parliament as they have already the lower house.
Clashes broke out between the rival supporters in several cities, AFP correspondents and state television reported.
In an address to supporters outside the presidential palace, Morsi insisted that Egypt remained on the path to "freedom and democracy", despite his move to undercut the judicary.
"Political stability, social stability and economic stability are what I want and that is what I am working for," he said.
The president already held both and executive and legislative powers and Thursday's decree puts him beyond judicial oversight until a new constitution has been ratified in a referendum.
It also means that the Islamist-dominated panel drawing up the new charter can no longer be touched and gives it a two-month extension -- until February next year -- to complete its work.
Washington and European governments voiced concern about the concentration of power in Morsi's hands and its implications for the democratic gains of last year's uprising which toppled Mubarak.
"The decisions and declarations announced on November 22 raise concerns for many Egyptians and for the international community," said US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland.
"One of the aspirations of the revolution was to ensure that power would not be overly concentrated in the hands of any one person or institution."
The European Union urged the Egyptian president to respect the democratic process.
"It is of utmost importance that democratic process be completed in accordance with the commitments undertaken by the Egyptian leadership," a spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said. Morsi must ensure the separation of powers, the independence of justice, the protection of fundamental freedoms and the holding of democratic parliamentary elections "as soon as possible", said spokesman Michael Mann. Hesham Sallam, a political analyst at Georgetown University, said Morsi's decree gave him as much power as Mubarak.
"The decrees effectively render the presidential decisions final and not subject to the review of judicial authorities, which marks a return to Mubarak-style presidency, without even the legal cosmetics that the previous regime used to employ to justify its authoritarian ways," he told AFP.
But a spokesman for the Freedom and Justice Party, headed by Morsi before his election, said the president's decree was necessary to cut short the turbulent transition.
"We need stability," said Murad Ali. "That's not going to happen if we go back again to allowing the judges, who have personal reasons, to dissolve the constituent assembly in order to prolong the transitional phase."

For March 14, renewal time
Michael Young/Now Lebanon/November 24, 2012
Protesters wrought havoc near the Serail in the wake of Wissam al-Hassan’s assassination in October, causing fears of another civil war. (AFP)
It is an unfortunate but very real fact that the March 14 coalition is facing a credibility gap with many of the Western countries that had backed it during the years 2005-2009. That is not to say that the coalition has been abandoned, but rather that its ability to embody the state has suffered as President Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister Najib Miqati have filled the political center.
Miqati’s visit to France this week exposed the nature of the problem. The prime minister was received with all the honors, at a time when Samir Geagea launched what seemed a frivolous attack against Nabih Berri, the parliament speaker, accusing him of having kept parliament open despite the killing of several parliamentarians in the past seven years. How odd, given that Geagea’s allies had earlier blamed Berri for closing the institution between 2006 and 2008.
These types of petty conflicts, at a time of fear that Lebanon may be on the cusp of civil war following on from regional instability, make both foreign representatives and even many in the March 14 base groan. Suleiman and Walid Jumblatt talk about reconciliation; Miqati promises to make the government more effective. Here are the kinds of statements that foreign embassies want to hear. March 14 is justified in demanding an end to the wanton assassination of its partisans and allies. But in rejecting all dialogue it is perceived as part of the problem, which defeats the purpose.
It should have been clear to the March 14 leadership that they had lost the embassies in the wake of Wissam al-Hassan’s elimination. Even many of their supporters were worried about the sectarian consequences surrounding a crime that threatened to bring Sunnis into conflict with Shiites. This was evident before Hassan’s funeral, and yet the sad event only confirmed everyone’s worst fears, when demonstrators tried to storm the Serail, and when that night armed gunmen in Tariq al-Jadideh took to the streets in an eerie re-enactment of the opening stages of Lebanon’s civil war in 1975.
The strength of March 14 was always that it did not do that kind of thing—even if the gunmen were acting independently of the coalition. Hezbollah spent 18 months outside Fouad al-Siniora’s door from 2006 to 2008, yet the party did not storm the prime minister’s office, for fear that it would spark Sunni-Shiite clashes. On the other hand, the party did occupy western Beirut militarily, with allies, and it was to Saad Hariri’s great credit that he did not call in his brethren from the north to save him, for that would have meant war.
The integrity of March 14 came from the fact that it accepted the full authority of the state, even at those moments when shootings and bomb attacks were cutting down some of its leading lights. Of course, at the time the coalition held a parliamentary majority and controlled the cabinet. For it to abandon those principles today because the prime minister happens to be Najib Miqati is politically suicidal, and smacks of opportunism and hypocrisy. When the elections come around next year—elections that will be seminal, for they will define who will lead Lebanon after the exit of Bashar Assad in Syria—it will be very difficult indeed to mobilize voters on those seedy foundations.
There is time for March 14 to backtrack, even if there is little will to do so. One day Assad will fall, and that will radically alter the political landscape for Hezbollah. The party will not go away, but it will be far less able to carry Lebanon into a destructive war with Israel on Iran’s behalf, with much of Lebanese society wanting no such thing. Patience is required, time for the Syrian regime to go, to be followed by a serious effort at reconciliation with the Shiite community to eventually push for integration of Hezbollah’s weapons into the state.
Easier said than done. However, that must be the strategy followed to avert sectarian tensions which, paradoxically, the end of the war in Syria may make more rather than less likely, thanks to the wave of triumphalism that will seize the Lebanese Sunni community. Sunnis will face off against a politically debilitated Hezbollah, but also one massively armed and on its hind legs. Negotiating that phase will require a lucid March 14, not one out to settle old scores, even if Hezbollah has done much to make that sentiment inevitable.
In that way, March 14 will earn both the respect of foreign governments, essential for Lebanon’s wellbeing internationally, and newfound loyalty from its increasingly disenchanted followers. For now the focus must be on winning the elections next year and regaining control over state institutions. Miqati is not the issue, nor Berri. It is how Lebanon will emerge from the Syrian maelstrom, and whether sectarian relations can remain free of violence. March 14 must do more to convince us that it has thought this issue through.
*Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper in Lebanon. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Let us feel sorry together
Hazem al-Amin/Now Lebanon/ November 23, 2012
Whoever takes a look at Lebanese Facebook walls realizes that many people did not like the truce in Gaza, since it was not a good enough lifeline to escape the Syrian deadlock. Ten days of Israeli war on the Gaza Strip were not enough to change the equation and did little to divert attention away from the Syrian tragedy. Those who linked the two tragedies in Gaza and Syria together were even successful as it has soon become apparent that the sufferings of the Syrian people and Gaza’s Palestinians are linked. The mistake made by the Al-Mayadin TV station, which aired images from Syria and claimed they were shot in Gaza, is indicative of this relationship of similarity and intertwining, which is highlighted by the fact that Hamas has exited Damascus, leading to a campaign of criticism launched against it by the Syrian regime’s allies. Israel’s stance on the Syrian revolution and the 1,100 Palestinians killed in Syria also play a role in demonstrating the ties between these two tragedies.
Still, the most painful thing about the bitterness expressed on Facebook as a result of the truce in Gaza is the avowed wish to witness additional Palestinian deaths in order to serve the interests of the staggering Syrian regime. The suspicions voiced vis-à-vis the so-called new Hamas, or the “Qatari-Turkish” Hamas, represent a veiled allusion to Hamas’ propensity from the first day of the conflict to achieve a speedy truce. This was not much appreciated by Iran or Syria, and is the first indicator to Hamas’ steering away from the Syrian-Iranian axis.
It doesn’t matter if Palestinians are sacrificed on the altar of extending the Syrian regime’s life and this is hardly surprising, since these people have already remained silent on the fact that the Syrian regime has so far killed 1,100 Palestinians in Syria’s Palestinian refugee camps, much like they remained silent on the death of 40,000 Syrians.
Repeating those facts would be of no use since the divergence [of opinions] is too marked to be bridged by logic. Accordingly, we choose to quite using logic and invoke group interests instead, since we are addressing instincts that have been rekindled by the fear of change.
Dear Facebook friends, all indicators have it that change is on the way and it is in [your] interest to stop supporting a regime that has no future. We only mention interest here, since we disagree on the moral interpretation of the current events in Syria. Indeed, it is far too costly for us – or you – to act as fuel for any alternative stage.
Yes, we should feel sorry for the 150 Palestinians killed in Gaza, condemn Israel and expose its actions, but we should also feel sorry for the 1,100 Palestinians killed in Syria and even sorrier for the 40,000 Syrians killed… Dear Facebook friends, please let us feel sorry for them together.
**This article is a translation of the original, which appeared on the NOW Arabic site on Friday November 23, 2012

Hamas’ escalation calculation
Tony Badran/Now Lebanon/November 22, 2012
Hamas members celebrate after the truce with Israel. Hamas’ decision to escalate rocket attacks on Israel leading up to the latest conflagration was deliberate. (AFP photo)
Hamas’ decision to escalate rocket attacks on Israel leading up to the latest conflagration was deliberate. One question remains largely unanswered: What was Hamas’ calculation behind this escalation? In short, the Palestinian Islamist movement set out to impose new rules of engagement, not only on Israel, but, more importantly, on Egypt. Hamas’ war with Israel was, in fact, a failed attempt to reconfigure the power relationship with Cairo.
The advent of dramatic political changes in Egypt and Tunisia led many to believe that Hamas’ role in the new regional order would also be transformed. As the thinking went, Hamas would be integrated into the Sunni regional fold. In particular, the Islamist movement’s falling out with Syria’s Assad regime last year was seen as the turning point in Hamas’ strategic realignment away from the Iran-led axis toward the camp of Sunni states. The path ahead, it was assumed, would be a political rehabilitation of Hamas by the Sunni powers.
Hamas’ break with the Assad regime was the result of a cost-benefit analysis. The group understood that although the move would anger its Iranian patron, this was still manageable. Furthermore, what was forfeited in Damascus, Hamas figured, would be more than compensated for in relationships with Ankara, Cairo and Doha, whom it wagered would seek patronage over its Gaza fiefdom. The Qatari emir, for instance, recently went on a high-profile visit to Gaza to announce $400 million for construction projects there.
Qatari largesse is fine and well. But the central problem for Hamas is that Gaza’s gateway to the world is Egypt. This is so not only in geographic terms, but also politically and diplomatically, and, most importantly, militarily, as Gaza’s logistical route for Iranian arms supplies runs from Sudan through Egypt. Hamas welcomes cash, but its primary concern is to increase its military capabilities.
Here, Hamas saw the fall of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and the ascent to power of the Muslim Brotherhood, as its opportunity to lift the stifling constraints that existed under the Mubarak regime. Hamas believed the new Egyptian president, whom it saw as an ideological comrade, would pursue a policy in line with Muslim Brotherhood principles and facilitate the group’s procurement of long-range rockets from Iran. From Hamas’ perspective, the dawn of unlimited populist support for the “resistance” by Muslim Brotherhood governments was here, and Hamas was to be the vanguard of this new regional order.
However, none of that materialized. In fact, the new Egyptian government was even stricter than its predecessor in enforcing control over the smuggling tunnels in the Sinai. In September, there were even demonstrations in Gaza, led by Hamas, protesting Egypt’s border policy. The rulers of Gaza needed to up-end this status quo and set new terms for the relationship with Cairo. Hamas wanted Egypt to be the strategic depth of the resistance—exactly like Syria was to Hezbollah during the 2006 war.
To achieve this, Hamas moved to rewrite the rules and impose them not only on Israel, but also on Egypt. The steady escalation of rocket attacks on southern Israel was the new normal that Hamas sought to establish. This is why, despite the divergence over the Assad regime, Hamas maintained its military relationship with Iran, which had intensified since 2008—in close cooperation with Sudan. Whereas some saw the group’s opening to the Sunni states as signifying a cooling of relations with Iran—jumping from one strategic camp to another—Hamas’ calculation was different. What was mistaken for a strategic migration was in fact a classic balancing act.
Hamas understood that the Iranians still needed it because of its control over Gaza. As such, Tehran could swallow Hamas’ walking away from the Assad regime as long as their military relationship continued unabated. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah attested to this basic understanding in a recent speech. He emphasized that, “despite differences here and there,” the military alliance between Iran and Gaza remained solid. Hamas’ ambitious bid failed, however, as it misread both the Israelis and the Egyptians. It regarded Egypt’s warnings last month against Israeli military action in Gaza as a de facto political cover. It believed that Israel would not risk endangering the peace treaty with Cairo by launching a large-scale operation. At the end of the day, Hamas thought, it would have created a new reality on the ground and reestablished itself as the spearhead of resistance against Israel. Moreover, Hamas figured it could drive a wedge between the US and Israel, believing that the Obama administration would restrain the Israelis—particularly if it feared a possible collapse of the peace treaty with Egypt.
In other words, Hamas overreached. The result is looking rather ugly for the Palestinian group. It thought it could gain greater leverage over the Egyptians, and beyond them the international system. What’s more, it calculated that when the dust settled it would have enhanced its position and secured tangible gains.
Yet at the end of the day, Hamas ended up with the status quo ante, with net losses. Its prominent military commander and liaison with Iran has been killed. Its stockpile of Iranian long-range rockets has been severely degraded, with the US and its allies, including Egypt, all watching closely to intercept future transfers. In addition, not only were the rules of engagement with Israel not altered, but also Hamas’ value to Iran as a deterrent against an Israeli strike on its nuclear sites has been diminished.
Most importantly, instead of pulling Egypt to its side, Hamas merely angered the new Egyptian president. Its mistake was in thinking that, since President Morsi was a Muslim Brother, it could shoehorn him into a course of action of its design. In so doing, it overstepped its bounds in the power hierarchy: Gaza does not set the terms for Egypt. Ultimately, Morsi is, and acted like, the president of the state of Egypt, not the leader of an ideological movement.
With that critical mistake, Hamas’ gambit resulted in the realization of its worst nightmare: Instead of leveraging Iranian aid to create a margin for maneuver, it now finds itself further under Egypt’s thumb.
**Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He tweets @AcrossTheBay.