LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 14/2012

Bible Quotation for today/
Saint John 10/7-10: "So again Jesus said to them, ‘Very truly, I tell you, I am the gate for the sheep. All who came before me are thieves and bandits; but the sheep did not listen to them.
I am the gate. Whoever enters by me will be saved, and will come in and go out and find pasture. The thief comes only to steal and kill and destroy. I came that they may have life, and have it abundantly."

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Syria's Internal War Turns Against the Regime/By: Jeffrey White/Washington Institute/November 13/12
Israel trying to save al-Assad/By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 13/12
The problem with the opposition/By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq AlawsatNovember 13/12
The impact of the Shiites on Sunni fundamentalists/By Abdullah Al-Otaibi/Asharq Alawsat/November 13/12

Madi Issues Warrants Against Brother of Fneish, Another Suspect over Illegal Medications
Naharnet /General Prosecutor Judge Hatem Madi issued on Tuesday a search and investigative warrant against two people, including the brother of Minister of State for Administrative Reform Mohammad Fneish over the illegal medications case. According to LBCI the warrant was issued against Abdul Latif Fneish and Fouad Ahmed Wehbeh over links to the forging certificates of laboratory tests and illegal medications case. Media reports said last week that Fneish's brother might be involved in forging certificates of laboratory tests. Meanwhile, Health Minister Ali Hassan Khalil briefed President Michel Suleiman on the details of the case. Suleiman hailed the ministry for exposing the matter, stressing on the importance “of not to tolerate with who are manipulating with the health of citizens.”
Later head of Parliament's Public Health, Labor and Social Affairs committee MP Atef Majdalani held talks with Madi to tackle the matter.In comments published in An Nahar newspaper, Majdalani accused Justice Minister Shakib Qortbawi and Health Minister Ali Hassan Khalil of “covering up the scandal as no legal measure has been taken so far against the key suspect in the case.”During a joint press conference on Monday, Qortbawi and Khalil stressed that “most of the counterfeit medications were removed from the market across Lebanon.” Majdalani wondered “why the case was referred immediately to the judiciary and not to the public prosecution.”Sources close to the case told An Nahar “investigations will not take a long time and will continue this week based on the important leads that have been discovered.” Reports say the forgery has been lingering on for about ten months and when it was exposed the health minister claimed it was referred to the judiciary a month ago.

Hariri Hits Back at Nasrallah, Accuses Hizbullah of 'Clinging to Power'
Naharnet /Former prime minister Saad Hariri on Tuesday hit back at Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, defending Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and stressing that al-Mustaqbal Movement “has never been an advocate of sectarian strife.” “There are certain constitutional principles for ousting governments, unless Sayyed Hassan wants to write us a new constitution and wants to teach us that the new method for that (changing governments) is (national) dialogue,” said Hariri after meeting Italian Foreign Minister Giulio Terzi in Rome.
“I don't think that it is appropriate for him to talk in this manner. There are written constitutional principles: either through the resignation of the premier or through losing the parliament's confidence or through the resignation of more than one third of ministers like what happened with the previous government,” said Hariri.
The ex-PM accused Nasrallah of “clinging to power,” warning that “it is clear that the party is willing to do everything in its capacity in order to remain in power.”
Hariri also accused Hizbullah of “interfering in Syria,” voicing regret that “jihadist fighters are being killed everyday while fighting alongside the Syrian regime.”"How can the government disassociate itself from the Arab consensus on the (newly formed) Syrian opposition coalition?” Hariri wondered, noting that “the government should have rejected this coalition given the fact that there are Hizbullah fighters engaged in combat alongside the Syrian regime.”Commenting on Nasrallah's remarks that al-Mustaqbal Movement is inflaming Sunni-Shiite strife, Hariri denied the charges, stressing that his movement “has never been an advocate of sectarian strife.”“Yesterday, Sayyed Hassan was addressing someone he did not name in his speech, but I will name him – al-Hakim (Geagea),” Hariri added.
Geagea “has been telling people that Lebanon should only be governed by the Lebanese, not through any foreign interference,” the ex-PM said, noting that “this approach does not go with the viewpoints of those who are clinging to power, especially Hizbullah.”In his speech on Monday, Nasrallah accused “some of March 14's Christians” of “seeking a Sunni-Shiite conflict in Lebanon.”
“Some want us to forget our past and want the Lebanese and Arab and Muslim peoples to forget our past. He wants us to forget about his past and he wants the Lebanese and Arabs to forget about his past in order to turn the standards upside down,” said Nasrallah, referring to Geagea.
“The resistance fighters who liberated Lebanon and rescued it from the Israeli era do not need certificates in patriotism from those who were allied with the Israelis and used to storm Lebanese towns alongside Israeli troops,” Nasrallah added. Hariri hit back at Hizbullah's leader, accusing the party and its allies of “cursing dead people,” invoking the era of civil war and “attempting to stir strife.”“When we staged an uprising in 2005, we did not do that to allow the Syrian regime to return to the country. We rose up in order to be free and we will remain free,” said Hariri.
“The Lebanese want to live in dignity without needing anyone, not Saad Hariri, nor Hassan Nasrallah, Samir Geagea or anyone else. They want electricity, water, education and health care,” he added.
Hariri stressed that he personally as well as al-Mustaqbal Movement and the March 14 forces "want all the Lebanese to coexist." "Some must show some modesty and think in a patriotic manner because this country is for everyone,” said Hariri."Let them stop challenging us because this confrontaion will not make them achieve anything, as we are not afraid of that and we only fear for Lebanon and we will not bargain over the Taef Accord or Lebanon."

Aoun: Whoever Sparked Sidon Unrest Should Not Be Allowed to Remain Free
Naharnet/Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun demanded on Tuesday that whoever sparked Sunday's unrest in the southern city of Sidon be arrested.
He said after the Change and Reform bloc's weekly meeting: “Whoever created the instability should not be allowed to roam free.”He made his remarks in reference to Salafist cleric Sheikh Ahmed al-Asir. The MP added that his demand does not stem from the need for revenge, but the need to control the security situation in the city. “I lived in Sidon for seven years and I know that its residents are peaceful,” continued Aoun. An armed clash broke out in Sidon on Sunday between Asir's supporters and those of Hizbullah. Two of the cleric's companions were killed in the unrest, as well as an Egyptian national, as they were attempting to take down banners they considered offensive. “Those who spark the unrest and announce the formation of a military wing should not remain free,” emphasized Aoun while referring to claims that Asir is planning on announcing the formation of his own armed group. The MP added sarcastically: “I could gather some 200 followers and declare the establishment of a military wing.”
Those violating security should be arrested similar to what happened in Beirut, the North, and the Bekaa, he demanded. Addressing the March 14-led opposition's demand for the formation of a new neutral government, the FPM leader said: “A new government could be formed through dialogue, not surrendering and resignation.”
Moreover, he noted that there is no such thing as neutrality, adding: “Let them name ten neutral figures who can be assigned to the new cabinet.”
“Why should we chose neutral figures? What if they don't respect the wishes of the voters?” Aoun wondered.

Paris Recognizes New Syria Opposition Bloc, to Review Arms Stance
Naharnet /President Francois Hollande announced Tuesday that France recognized the newly formed Syria opposition as the sole representative of the people of the conflict-ravaged country and said it was time to review whether the rebels should be given arms. "I announce that France recognizes the Syrian National Coalition as the sole representative of the Syrian people and thus as the future provisional government of a democratic Syria, allowing an end to the Bashar Assad regime," Hollande told a press conference.
France, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, is the first Western power to officially recognize the broad-based opposition coalition which was established in Doha on Sunday after 20 months of conflict. Hollande also said that the issue of supplying weapons to the opposition, hitherto opposed by France and other major powers, would have to be reviewed. "This question will have to be necessarily reviewed not only in France but in all countries which will recognize this government," he said.
The six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council have also recognized the new opposition body. But Britain has said it wants to see more evidence that the grouping has strong support inside Syria before formally recognizing it as effectively a government in exile.
The United States has expressed support for the coalition and said it will work with it as it seeks to overthrow the Assad regime.
The diverse forces involved in the coalition agreed on Sunday to unify their fighting forces under a supreme military council and set up a national judicial commission for rebel-held areas in Syria.
They plan to form a provisional government once the coalition has been widely recognized internationally.
SourceAgence France Presse

Iran’s new interceptor, rejoinder to US-Israeli counter for its cruise missiles
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 13, 2012/Iran’s air defense chief Gen. Farzad Esmaili boasted Tuesday, Nov. 12, that a new air defense system was successfully tested during a “massive” ongoing military exercise, which he said was “a message and a strong slap to those countries that threaten [us].”
debkafile’s military sources report that the six-day Iranian air defense drill is Tehran’s answer to the joint three-week US-Israeli maneuver - Austere Challenge 2012 – which is drilling defenses against an Iranian or Syrian ballistic missile attack on Israel.
Monday, four US and Israeli Patriot anti-missiles missiles shot down four out of four mock Iranian missiles from the Israeli air base at Palmachim. Tuesday, the Iranians paraded a new air defense system modeled on the US Hawk system. Earlier reports said the new surface-to-air system is named “Mersad,” or Ambush. It was capable of locking on a flying object at a distance of 80 kilometers (50 miles) and able to hit from 45 kilometers (30 miles) away, Iranian state TV said.
The Iranians have apparently upgraded the American Hawk system, say our military sources, but not all its touted specifications are confirmed. Even if they are, Iran’s latest military exercise shows it cannot match missile interceptors on the high order of the US and Israeli Aegis, THAAD and Arrow. These systems are capable of pinpointing ballistic and cruise missiles the moment they are launched by means of the highly sophisticated US X-band radar stations, one of which is located in the Israeli Negev, and shooting them down hundreds of kilometers before they approach their targets.
The anti-missile systems launched from the Israeli coast Monday practiced for the first time US and Israeli ability to intercept Iranian cruise missiles speeding toward the Israeli shore from Iranian warships or merchant vessels cruising in the Mediterranean Sea or launched by Hizballah marines. Specialized Hizballah units have been trained in Iran of late in the handling of short-range cruise missiles launched from large commando speedboats.
American and other Western intelligence agencies have received word that Iran is outfitting with cruise missile launch pads civilian merchant vessels that would sail close to the Israeli coast in a war.
The US and Israeli planners of the joint maneuver are working on the assumption that the Iranian stealth drone which entered Israeli air space from Lebanon on Oct. 6, after spending an hour and twenty minutes over the Mediterranean, was performing a part in an Iranian-Hizballah exercise. This exercise is thought to have tested the use of an Iranian drone for guiding shipboard cruise missiles launched from the sea. The UAV passed across Israeli skies, our military sources noted, at exactly the same time as a Palestinian Hamas military exercise took place in the Gaza Strip.
Tehran has clearly been building up to the present exercise. A week before the drone operation, Gen. Ferzad Ismaili, head of Iranian air defenses, said, “We may be faced with full-scale and all-out electronic warfare.”The Iranian military exercise under way now over almost the entire eastern half of the country, with the participation of jet fighters, drones and more than 8,000 troops, is one of the most extensive of its kind to take place in recent months.

Syria's Internal War Turns Against the Regime
Jeffrey White/Washington Institute
November 13, 2012
As the Assad regime's increasingly precarious military situation becomes irreversible, outside assistance could help deter Damascus from extreme escalation.
After almost twenty months, Syria's internal war appears to be approaching a decisive stage. Since early October, rebel forces have been on the offensive in key theaters, while regime forces are stretched thin, increasingly on the defensive, and giving ground. The conflict is evolving from a war of attrition (with the two sides primarily exchanging casualties) to a war of positions, with rebel forces seizing checkpoints, reducing the regime presence in the provinces, interdicting roads, and pressuring key regime strongholds and facilities. Barring a major change in Bashar al-Assad's approach or massive intervention by Hizballah and Iran, the regime's military situation will likely continue to deteriorate, perhaps dramatically, in the weeks ahead.
REBEL OPERATIONS
The rebels may not yet have a unified political structure, military command, or national strategy for their war against the regime, but the cumulative effects of their operations are significant and mounting. Furthermore, they hold the military initiative in key areas of the country.
Rebel operations support several major objectives. First, they inflict increasing losses on regime personnel and equipment, including tanks, combat vehicles, and aircraft. Based on daily casualty reporting from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, regime forces averaged nearly 50 personnel killed per day in October, up from 35 in September. And in the first eleven days of November, the average rose to 53. To this toll must be added wounded and captured personnel as well as defectors. Meanwhile, reported clashes between rebel and regime units averaged some 25 per day last month, up from 18 in September; the total October tally of 764 was the highest monthly number since the war began.
Second, the rebels are reducing the regime's presence and influence (especially in rural areas, but also in major urban areas) by seizing positions or forcing the government to abandon them under pressure. Even in areas where the regime is relatively strong, the rebels are contesting its control.
Third, rebel forces are interdicting key lines of communication, especially in Idlib and Aleppo provinces, but also increasingly in Raqqa province. This activity hinders the regime's ability to move forces to threatened areas and ties them up in protection of LOCs. This in turn contributes to the isolation of regime positions in disputed areas, including artillery fire bases and airfields. While the rebels still have difficulty overrunning major regime positions, they are able to invest and harass them, limiting their utility and forcing the regime to defend them.
Fourth, the rebels are attacking regime positions and facilities to acquire weapons and ammunition. Every position they take provides some of each, sometimes in large quantities. Favorite targets are checkpoints and air defense facilities.
Collectively, rebel operations maintain pressure on the regime on multiple fronts. This may not be part of a grand strategy, but the sum of such operations has a similar effect. Fighting in many places spreads regime forces thin, denying them the ability to concentrate numbers for major offensives.
REGIME STRATEGY AND OPERATIONS
The regime's military situation is becoming increasingly precarious, especially in the northern governorates of Idlib and Aleppo, but also in the east. Pressure is mounting in the Damascus area as well. Several important trends are running against Assad's forces: their offensive capabilities are waning, and their efforts to limit or reverse rebel gains with airpower and field artillery have not fundamentally changed the conflict's direction. Even so, the regime has not altered its approach to the war. It has no political strategy and no prospects of developing one, so fighting it out has become the only option.
In terms of military strategy, the regime continues to defend all areas where it is challenged -- for political reasons, it is unwilling to completely abandon any part of the country. It has attempted to hold all major cities and key provincial centers, and to maintain a presence in the countryside. This approach often leaves its small units vulnerable to attack and larger ones exposed to isolation and harassment. In addition, it draws regime forces into local battles of attrition, such as the fighting for Aleppo city and the military camp at Wadi al-Daif in Idlib province. Such clashes consume regime resources without achieving any significant military gain.
The regime has also sought to keep its LOCs to the northern and eastern provinces open, especially in Idlib and Aleppo. To do otherwise would risk isolating its forces there, potentially leading to their collapse or defeat and the loss of the provinces themselves.
In carrying out these efforts, the regime is relying more on airpower and large field-artillery forces to stem rebel advances, support local counterattacks, inflict losses on rebel units, and punish the civilian population. It is also using more irregular forces (e.g., shabbiha and Popular Committee militias) to reduce the burden on its regular combat forces. These irregulars are now heavily involved in the fighting and are suffering substantial losses.
Finally, direct intervention by Hizballah appears to be growing. Some of the group's forces in Lebanon have reportedly shelled targets across the border, while other elements have joined the fighting on the ground in Syria itself, suffering increased casualties in the process.
CRITICAL THEATERS
Going forward, the regime's fate will likely be determined in three key theaters of war. First is the fighting in Idlib and Aleppo, which is accelerating and moving more and more against the regime. Assad's forces have lost territory and positions in Idlib, and LOCs within the province have been cut or interdicted. The rebels have also just invested the key regime airfield at Taftanaz. Aleppo city is under growing threat of isolation from the west, south, and east, and key regime strongholds near Atareb and Managh in Aleppo province are surrounded by rebels or otherwise under pressure.
Clashes have also increased in the countryside around Damascus and even within the capital itself. Serious fighting has erupted there as the regime tries to maintain control over the outskirts while suppressing the rebel presence inside the city -- in other words, Assad's forces are now battling for the very center of the regime. The intensified fighting there also means that the regime is less able to reinforce other important theaters.
The rebellion is growing in the east as well. In Raqqa province, armed opposition elements are on the rise, seizing territory near the Turkish border (e.g., Tal Abyad, Suluk) and interdicting the main highways to Hasakah and Deir al-Zour provinces at several points. Rebels there have reportedly stopped several convoys, including fuel trucks and reinforcements moving from Hasakah to Raqqa. Formerly one of the quietest provinces in Syria, Hasakah has seen a dramatic increase in fighting this month, including the seizure of the Ras al-Ain border crossing with Turkey and clashes in several other locations in the north. The regime rushed reinforcements to Ras al-Ain and has employed combat helicopters in the area, but has been unable to suppress the unrest.
Although the situation in these areas is perhaps the most critical for the regime, it cannot ignore the conflict in other areas. Deir al-Zour, Deraa, Hama, and Homs provinces continue to witness considerable fighting, while Latakia and Quneitra provinces have seen increasing military activity.
OUTLOOK
The war in Syria may be approaching a decisive stage, and in favor of the rebels. The regime has only limited capacity to restore its hold over some critical areas and is being pressed to hold on in others. Probably the best it can hope for is to blunt or slow rebel gains.
This trend appears irreversible unless the regime makes a major change in its approach to the war. Ultimately, this could include use of chemical weapons, massive intervention by Hizballah and Iran, or a retreat from threatened provinces in order to consolidate forces.
Outside military assistance to the rebels could shift the situation even more quickly and decisively in their favor, potentially preempting any regime move toward extreme measures. It would allow the rebels to defend civilians better, consolidate areas of control, reduce regime strongholds more quickly, increase attrition of regime forces, and reduce their own attrition (which is currently around 40 personnel killed per day). In other words, it could shorten the war.
Finally, military aid provided soon to the right groups -- namely, ones that are politically acceptable to the West and militarily effective -- could help shape the post-Assad situation in a way favorable to U.S. interests. It could also enable these groups to play a more decisive role in the outcome of the fighting and claim a more central role in bringing down the regime. This would better position them for the post-Assad struggle with other groups, especially Islamist extremists.
**Jeffrey White is a defense fellow at The Washington Institute and a former senior defense intelligence officer.

The problem with the opposition
By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat
Perhaps al-Assad will fall whilst the weak internal opposition is still preoccupied with their differences in leadership councils. He may fall after the rebels have seized power on the ground, or after the opposition abroad, in their different factions, have partitioned their county’s liberated soil.
Following the meeting in Amman, the Doha conference has papered over some of the cracks but the major internal opposition councils continue to experience fierce quarrels, and time is running out in Syria as dangers prevail.
Riad Seif, a dissident figure who is highly respected by the majority of the Syrian opposition, recently presented a political project that provides a clear framework outlining the mechanism with which the opposition, in general, should operate, regardless of where they are based or the adverse pressures mounted from abroad. However, this initiative will be of no value unless all parties make concessions in order to operate under one framework that serves as an alternative regime.
In the beginning, the Syrian National Council led the opposition based abroad, yet it failed to contain multiple Syrian powers. Now it has become a semi-closed club, and other meetings and councils have emerged in Istanbul and elsewhere. For an observer looking on from afar, it seems that the current days will shape Syria's future: if everyone agrees, then Syria will remain united, and if disagreements continue to prevail, Syria will be divided and the revolution will be doomed to failure and may even transform into a civil war. So are those sitting in air-conditioned meeting rooms aware how dangerous their equation is to their country's future?
It is not reasonable to blame major regional and Western states for their negligence whilst the opposition itself declines to sacrifice its interests for the sake of the people. The general framework being put forth by Riad Seif and Riad Hijab remains the most comprehensive, and one that could contain all different categories if it was agreed upon.
Whilst we are attempting to understand the symptoms of the Syrian opposition's failure, let us recall the Iraqi opposition's conduct that failed to topple the Saddam Hussein regime between the years of 1993 through to 2003. Despite immobilizing and besieging the majority of Saddam’s troops, imposing a no-fly zone over two-thirds of Iraq, and the Kurds' success in creating a liberated region in the north of the country, Saddam continued to stand on his feet, whilst the opposition were quarreling in hotels and questioning and accusing the West. Why didn't the Baghdad butcher fall? The opposition wanted others to do its job. Of course, had the events of September 11th 2001 not happened, perhaps Saddam Hussein would still be in power in Iraq today.
We cannot compare the current state of affairs in Syria to that of Iraq at that time. However, we can identify common features in the opposition in both cases: laying the blame on others, giving preference to minor interests, even if not necessarily personal ones, and upholding a sectarian agenda and prioritizing this over the fate of the country, which teeters on the edge of an abyss.

Israel trying to save al-Assad!
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
What is now clear from the Israeli military response – even if this is a limited one – against the al-Assad forces in the Golan Heights is that Israel is trying to save Bashar al-Assad and is working to drown the region in an ongoing state of chaos. This is in order to complicate the Syrian crisis, which in turn would prevent critical decisions being taken to hasten the toppling of the tyrant of Damascus.
Since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution, we have seen the possible scenarios regarding al-Assad’s response – which are completely expected and contain nothing new – including setting fire to Lebanon, drowning Turkey in refugees, attempting to exploit Turkey’s Alawite community, as well as embroiling Jordan in the crisis and drowning it in refugees, dragging Iraq into the crisis via the gateway of sectarianism, and before all else, playing the sectarian card in Syria itself. However last but not least, we now see al-Assad involving Israel. Of course, it is the al-Assad regime that is responsible for all this; it tried to provoke Turkey but failed, in the knowledge that if the Turkish army took action and reached the heart of Damascus it would find Arab support and cover. Al-Assad tried, and continues to try, to provoke Jordan, but Amman, for its part, continues to practice self-restraint. Al-Assad did what he did in Lebanon, whilst Beirut remains steadfast, however what is strange is that with the first al-Assad provocation towards Israel, Tel Aviv took action and responded!
We describe this as “strange” because what al-Assad has done recently in the Golan Heights – which have been quiet for nearly 4 decades – is precisely what Saddam Hussein did during the occupation of Kuwait. He launched “Scud” missiles at Israel in order to drag it into the crisis and “shuffle” the cards. At the time, then US President George Bush Senior confronted Israel and obliged it to exhibit self-restraint and not involve itself in the crisis surrounding the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait. Today, al-Assad is doing the same thing with Israel, and along the same line as Saddam Hussein. The issue does not require an abundance of intelligence to realize that al-Assad is trying to escape forward. In this case, why is Israel getting involved now and trying to save al-Assad by serving his interests? Why now, when we are witnessing quick and dramatic progress in the Syrian file, as well as military advancement in Damascus and political development at the level of the Syrian opposition which is now united, not to mention the positive international position towards this unity, which signals that al-Assad’s days are truly numbered? We say that this is “strange” because it is bizarre that al-Assad’s allies in this crisis should include Iran, Hezbollah and Israel! Of course, each party has their own motives, however these are destructive motivates that demonstrate the threat this tripartite represents to our region, not to mention al-Assad himself!
Al-Assad wants to drown the entire region in chaos; whilst Tel Aviv would have no objection in seeing the Syrian crisis last for decades and set fire to the entire encompassing region. Israel has no problem with Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon drowning in chaos, for the weaker Arab states become, the stronger Israel gets. This is what Tel Aviv wants, even with regards to Egypt. For so long as we Arabs our facing problems we have created with our own hands, Israel will not hesitate to pour fuel on the fire.
Therefore, it is imperative for there to be an effective diplomatic Arab stances towards the Israeli actions, as well as on the part of the international community, particularly the US and Britain. This is in order to see a similar position taken as that taken by George Bush Senior towards Israel during the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait. Israel must not be allowed to “shuffle” the cards of the Syrian revolution and allow al-Assad the opportunity to extend the life of his regime whose collapse is inevitable.

Gaddafi children transferred to third Arab country amidst official silence
By Khaled Mahmoud
Cairo, Asharq Al-Awsat – Well-informed Libyan sources revealed to Asharq Al-Awsat that Mustafa Abdul Jalil, Chairman of Libya’s National Transitional Council [NTC] had concluded a “secret” agreement with Gaddafi’s widow, Safia Farkash, to allow her to return to her hometown in the Libyan city of el-Bayda under the protection of Libyan authorities. This confirms previous news published by Asharq Al-Awsat that the Gaddafi family members who had been present in Algeria – namely eldest son Mohammed Gaddafi, Hannibal Gaddafi and Aisha Gaddafi – had left the country for a third as-yet undisclosed location, whilst Gaddafi’s widow, Safia Farkash, will be allowed to return to Libya.
Libya and Algeria have so far officially refused to confirm or deny this information. However a Libyan official, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the condition of anonymity, revealed that the Algerian authorities informed their Libyan counterparts that Mohammad, Hannibal and Aisha Gaddafi had been transferred to a third country.
Over the past few days, Arab and international media outlets have reported the story of Gaddafi family members being transferred from Algeria to a third country, which was first published by Asharq Al-Awsat. Britain’s Daily Telegraph issued a report on Sunday confirming this story, albeit failing to cite the original Asharq Al-Awsat report.
The Daily Telegraph quoted a London-based businessman who revealed that a Gaddafi family “fixer” had visited Niger recently to arrange a reunion of the Gaddafi children in recent weeks. The report noted that these efforts began after Algerian Foreign Minister Mourad Medelci visited Tripoli earlier this year and promised to exercise tight control over the family, adding that Aisha Gaddafi is said to have grown increasingly frustrated with the restrictions imposed on her communications by the Algerian regime, and that the Gaddafi children had therefore sough to seek refuge elsewhere in Africa.
The report also confirmed that a deal had been reached between the Algerians and Libyan officials to allow Gaddafi’s widow, Safia Farkash, to return to Libya as a “free woman.”
However a well-informed Libyan source, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the condition of anonymity, claimed that Mohammad, Hannibal and Aisha Gaddafi had in reality sought refuge in another Arab country, denying that they had joined brother Saadi Gaddafi in Niger. The source stressed that the Gaddafi children had voluntarily taken the decision to leave Algeria, adding that the Arab state where they have sought refuge has also imposed strong conditions preventing them from participating in any political or media work for fear of embarrassment.
The source also revealed that the Libyan ambassador to this unnamed Arab state returned to Tripoli after he was officially informed that the Gaddafi children had sought refuge there. The Libyan ambassador to the unnamed Arab country refused to respond to Asharq Al-Awsat’s repeated attempts to contact him, whilst Libyan Prime Minister Abdel Rahim El-Kib also failed to respond to Asharq Al-Awsat’s request for comment.
A Libyan official with close ties to the Gaddafi family informed Asharq Al-Awsat that an Arab country had offered to host the Gaddafi children after they felt that the Algerian authorities were restricting their communications and movements.
The Libyan official, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat on the condition of anonymity, confirmed that “certainly the authorities in Tripoli and the West are aware [of this] because the concerned Arab state informed the senior Libyan officials of its acceptance to host the Gaddafi children, and vowed that they would not pose any danger to the new political situation in Libya.”
The official also asserted that “the decision to leave Algeria concerns the Gaddafi family alone, and nobody was pressured to accept them. There is a practical agreement in this regard so long as they do not cause any inconvenience or engage in any action that could undermine Libyan security and stability.”
Algerian press reports also quoted a number of Algerian officials, including a Libyan Foreign Ministry spokesman and the Algerian ambassador to Libya, saying that they had no information about the Gaddafi family at the present time.
Libyan sources asserted that Mustafa Abdul Jalil had pledged to return all Safia Farkash’s possessions to her, allow her to return to Libya, as well as provide her with state security protection.
An anonymous Libyan source revealed that Abdul Jalil’s pledge to Gaddafi’s widow occurred during a phone conversation between the two during his visit to Algeria last April, which was Abdul Jalil’s first visit to Algeria since the fall of the Gaddafi regime. The source asserted that the NTC chief had informed Safia Farkash that she could return to Libya whenever she wanted under the protection of the Libyan state, particularly as she had not been involved in politics during Gaddafi’s 42 year rule. Abdul Jalil also promised to return Farkash’s house and land into her possession.

Mishal still a contender for Hamas leadership – Source
By Ali El-Saleh /London, Asharq Al-Awsat - Contrary to recent reports that Khalid Mishal, head of the Hamas movement’s Political Bureau, would not nominate himself for a fifth term to the post he’s held since 1996, an informed Palestinian source told Asharq Al-Awsat that Mishal's name is still on the table.
The source which spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat on the condition of anonymity attributed this latest development to the direct involvement of Dr Muhmmad Badi, general guide of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and the current internal crisis the Hamas movement is going through, which thus far has prevented the election of members of the Political Bureau and a Mishal successor, who made public his desire not to nominate himself a year ago.
According to the source, Dr Badi personally asked Mishal to stop making statements on his determination not to run, since nobody has been nominated for the position. The Muslim Brotherhood’s general guide told Mishal that if he continues making statements on the matter, he is not only harming himself, but also the Hamas movement and the Muslim Brotherhood. Moreover, Dr Badi asked Mishal to leave the issue to "the decision-makers" in the movement (which is the General Shura Council) which is the highest authority and the only body authorized to submit names for the chairmanship of the bureau. The source added that Mishal has actually heeded to the advice of the guide of the Muslim Brotherhood, and neither he, nor anyone associated with him have made any statements recently.
The source also revealed that Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Than raised the issue with Hamas’s Ismail Haniya, during his visit to the Gaza Strip on 23 October, and asked him to keep Mishal.
Haniya, at the request of the general guide in Cairo, send a delegation representing him led by, Political Bureau member Nizar Awadallah (who negotiated the release of captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit) along with other officials. The source said that officials representing the general guide met with them and told them that "Haniya is not suitable to be the head of the Political Bureau since the post is larger than him, and that [Musa] Abu-Marzuq is a point of contention. They asked them to search for new solutions." The source said that this was the reason for the delay in selecting a new head for the bureau.
Meanwhile, Hamas’s Ahmad Yusuf believes that the movement will select a new leader by the end of this November, and thinks the person most likely to occupy this post is Abu-Marzuq who had held the position in the past and was forced to relinquish it. Yusuf described him as a leader who is qualified in light of his position as the former and first head of the Political Bureau, and in light of his international relations and the fact that he is in charge of the national file, as well as his wisdom and deep vision. He added that Abu-Marzuq is known to be the man of difficult tasks concerning the work of Hamas leadership or the Islamic movement.

The impact of the Shiites on Sunni fundamentalists
By Abdullah Al-Otaibi/Asharq Alawsat
In the mid-1990s, cassette tapes of a Shiite singer performing recitals that had nothing to do with the Sunni doctrine were circulated among a radical Salafi group in Riyadh. The group took immense pleasure from these tapes, regardless of the fact that their content contradicted the longstanding Salafi stance on singing and music. Yet the real question to be raised here is: How exactly did a collection of Shiite recitals reach this hardline Sunni category?
Part of the answer lies in recalling the profound relationship and the magnitude of exchanged influence and impact between the Shiite and Sunni fundamentalists. In this article, I will attempt to examine the influence of fundamentalist Shiite Islam on its Sunni counterpart.
It is certain that fundamentalist Shiite Islam has had an impact on its Sunni counterpart. Historically speaking, religious opposition groups with political ambitions all began as secret movements, with the Shiites making up a considerable portion, and they drew on multiple inspirations. For example, the establishment of the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood group was heavily influenced by Western nationalist movements and parties, especially the communist ones, and here similarities can be seen in terms of the ideological, dynamic and organizational structure. The concepts of "commitment" and "apostasy" commonly used by the Brotherhood are drawn from communism, even if attempts were later made to “Islamize” them. This also applies to the group’s pyramidal organizational structure, its clandestine operations, its policy of absolute obedience and its military wings, all of which are based on the model of Western communist parties.
Such movements have also drawn heavily upon Shiite history, particularly at times of political repression and opposition. Here I will examine four main themes: "financial independence", "religious theatre", "Karbala ceremonies" and "religious chants and recitals”.
With regards to financial independence, Shiite movements traditionally had their own fixed source of income. Marjas would collect one-fifth of the earnings of prominent businessmen, and then distribute this among the public. For the businessmen, no Shiite capital could be considered pure unless one-fifth was allocated to the religious marja, and this ensured a sizeable financial income for Shiite movements. As a result, the Sunnis – who do not allocate one-fifth of their earnings to religious authorities – have paid attention to the importance of such financial independence, and have sought to achieve it in a variety of ways. These include taking advantage of charities and donations in all countries where they operate, whether overtly or covertly, as well as through so-called Islamic banks, which in fact are the same traditional banks but with a few tweaks. These fundraising measures are all outside the state's control, and this is the crux of the matter. François Thual remarked that during the 19th century, Shiite donations and legacies would go to scholars, without having to pass through the state.
As for religious theatre, Vali Nasr argues in “The Shiite Revival” that if the Sunni current's frame of reference is the Sharia, which focusses mainly on what is permissible in Islam and what is not, then a central pillar of the Shiite doctrine is rituals, sentiment and drama. François Thual also says that Shiite scholars encouraged so-called religious theatre through their “condolence councils”, hence consolidating their authority over the people away from the state.
Certainly the Sunni doctrine is more hardline in this particular sphere than the Shiite one. This is because the Shia Islam has been the doctrine of songs, chants and drama from time immemorial, whereas the political theatre was the product of modern Sunni political Islam groups. Thus, perhaps, the Sunnis took the idea from the Shiite experience.
As for Karbala ceremonies, these are commonly known among the Shiite sect to be a means of inducing sentiments and emotions towards the Shiites' historical grievances, and to reflect how they represent an oppressed opposition that has suffered great punishment and torture throughout its history. Fundamentalist Sunni movements have been greatly influenced by this trend, as reflected by the Muslim Brotherhood’s attempts to express the abuse they suffered during the Nasserite era. In this endeavor, they have transformed the stories of the tortures they suffered into something akin to the Shiite Karbala ceremonies. The Brotherhood have produced an abundance of tales, poems and other forms of literature that draws heavily of the Shiite tradition of exaggerating their plight for emotional impact.
As for religious chants and recitals in their contemporary form, this stems back to the Sufi current, rather than the Shiites. The Sufis were largely responsible for the development of religious singing and chanting, and they gradually came into contact with political Islam groups. Generally speaking, chants and recitals in their different guises among the Shiites and the Sunnis have been used as a means of political escalation, rather than mere ceremonial practices to praise God Almighty or invoke His deeds.
Hence we can see the sizeable influence of Shiite Islam upon fundamentalist Sunni movements over many years. The Islamic Republic of Iran has been particularly successful in bringing together Sunni fundamentalist movements under its banner, whether political groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood or violent entities such as al-Qaeda. Key figures in these movements have flocked to the Shiite fundamentalist hub [Iran] to display their political loyalty or to be subject to its support and influence.
Finally, by recalling this long history that I have tried to summarize here, we can understand the interrelationships between the two extremes of political Islam; the Sunnis and the Shiites. The channels of contact and cohesion, as well as the causes of disagreement and hostility, are now clearer.
The two sides of political Islam sometimes agree because they share the same history, and at other times they disagree and even antagonize one another. Yet such hostility is ultimately borne out of their close proximity.

Syrian Opposition Unification Puts West to the Test as Rebels Lay Grounds for No-Fly Zone
Riad Kahwaji, CEO, INEGMA
November 13, 2012
The Syrian opposition parties have finally succeeded in unifying themselves in the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NCSROF) that was born Nov. 11, after nearly a week of meetings in the Qatari capital of Doha. The new body includes revolutionary and opposition figures and parties from inside and outside Syria and from Islamist and liberal groups, Christians and Muslims. The international community was quick to voice praise and support for the move, and many states promised to recognize NCSROF as the official legitimate representative of the Syrian people. Arab Gulf States and the League of Arab States have already recognized the new body as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people. However, the Syrian opposition leaders went into this coalition expecting the international community, especially the West, to double and speed up aid to the Syrian revolution in all its forms: Political, economic, humanitarian and especially military.
While the world watched in cold blood the daily bombardment of Syrian cities and towns by the regime's air power and artillery, the Syrian rebels were making daily progress on the ground with whatever little help they were getting from businessmen and groups in the region. The progress made in the north and central parts of the country were so big that the rebels have practically paved the way for the establishment of a no-fly zone in northern Syria along the borders with Turkey. Armed with machineguns, rocket-propelled grenades and some heavy weapons they captured from the Syrian regular forces – like mortars, multiple rocket launchers, anti-aircraft guns and some tanks – the rebels captured most of the countryside of the provinces of Aleppo and Edlib and good chunks of Latakia and Raqqah provinces.
The most important part in all of the field developments was the rebels' success in neutralizing the regime's air defense capabilities in most of northern Syria and around Damascus. The rebels have stormed several air defense bases and destroyed the fire control systems and radars for the surface-to-air missiles there and captured anti-aircraft guns. Images released by the rebels showed them walking around Soviet-era SAM-2, SAM-3, SAM-5, SAM-7 and SAM-9 missiles on launch pads, with their mobile fire-control units and radars on fire or destroyed. The rebels vacated the bases in time before Syrian aircraft bombarded the site to deny the rebels the use of the missiles. Fortunately for the regime the rebels did not have the skills or the know-how to operate the missiles, otherwise they would have been able to establish their own no-fly zones over some areas or provinces. Although rebels were seen carrying some SAM-7 shoulder fired missiles, however for unknown reasons there has not yet been a documented use of these missiles. All of the downed Syrian jets and helicopters so far appear to have been hit by anti-aircraft gunfire. However, Syrian jets have been releasing heat flares during their air raids as a countermeasure to the use of heat-seeking SAM-7s.
The growing size of armed rebels showed they have no lack of manpower. This enabled them to engage the regular troops on various fronts all over the country. The battle of attrition have destroyed a lot of the regimes armor and vehicles, and demoralized many of its forces that did not stand their ground on many occasions when they came under shock attacks by the rebels. The regime seems to have employed strategic bombing from medium altitudes and controlling territory via fire power. It has been fiercely bombarding cities and towns in a clear attempt to turn the civilian population against the rebels. But it does not seem to have worked as the rebels continue to enjoy a lot of public support and the ability to move freely in most parts of the country. The rebels' possession of anti-aircraft capability has forced the regime's air power to drop dumb bombs from medium altitudes due to lack of smart weapons in its arsenal. Since the Syrian air force cannot carry out precision strikes it has lost its tactical edge allowing the rebels to advance slowly on the ground especially in mountainous and forest terrains that cover large parts of the Syrian landscape, giving the rebels a good advantage on the ground.
However the death toll amongst the population has been substantial and has exceeded 37,000 killed and tens of thousands injured or displaced. With a daily casualty rate of nearly 100 people the monthly death toll will be nearly 3,000 people. With such high casualty rates and considerable destruction of property, the Syrian population risks becoming radicalized, a threat the international community has to seriously consider in determining whether to intervene soon. The regime has used all it has in its arsenal except chemical weapons and ballistic missiles in hitting densely populated neighborhoods, even in its own capital Damascus in its efforts to crush the 19-month old rebellion. It even used endogenously built primitive bombs in helicopter-borne raids. Footage leaked by Syrian troops showed soldiers on board a helicopter use their cigarettes to light fuses of big canisters rigged with explosives that resemble giant sticks of dynamite, and then dropped them randomly from high altitude on towns and villages. The Syrian people have come to call these bombs the "explosive barrels." International organizations have even accused the Syrian regime of using cluster bombs in air raids on civilian areas.
So the international community is now facing its ultimate test vis-à-vis the Syrian people. For many months the Western capitals have placed the issue of the unification of the rebels as a precondition for their full support to the Syrian revolution. Now that this objective has been achieved the Syrians, along with the Arab world, anxiously await the West to fulfill its promise, especially that the situation in Syria has become too risky to regional and international stability if it was left on its own without intervention to bring about a quick end to the fighting that has spilled across the borders of Syria's neighbors, including Israel. Events have proven the Syrian regime's military is not the formidable force some Western military commanders have described. The loss of popular support and daily assaults on all fronts by determined rebels have taken its toll on the Syrian regular forces plagued with frequent defections within its ranks on all levels. The West can do the whole military support without any troops on the ground through establishing a no-fly zone and supplying rebels with the right weapons. Deprived of any air power the Syrian regime will lose its main killing machine and the collapse of its forces will be sped up substantially. So Washington and the West must step in quickly with their Arab allies to bring about the inevitable end of the Syrian regime before things get any worse or get out of control in such a strategically vital country.

Renewal for Ontario's Middle-Class Families and Students
By Glen Murray
The race to lead the Ontario Liberal Party is heating up, and Ontarians rightly expect to hear from those who would be Leader - and Premier - how their plans will work.
My plan is for renewal - we've achieved a lot, with better schools, more hospitals, shorter waiting times and cleaner air and water.
Now it's time for more - and two big steps I propose are tax cuts for the middle class and no-money-down tuition for university and college students.
The people I meet - hard-working, middle-class Ontarians - want to know how they can save for retirement in a tough economy where the challenges just don't seem to quit. And they want to know if they'll have anything left after helping their kids through school.
The tax cuts for the middle class in my plan, and no-money-down for university and colleges, will help Ontario families do both, and both programs are affordable within Ontario's fiscal framework.
Today, 40 per cent of Ontario families with children have one earner. Half of these are headed by lone parents. My tax cut plan could put up to $500 more in the hands of a family of four earning $70,000 and more than $200 for a lone parent with a young child in daycare earning $35,000.
It works by changing the system we now have. Deductions for RRSPs and child care expenses would be made into grants.
For many Ontarians, often those most in need, these deductions now are of next to no value. For many middle-class Ontarians - teachers, nurses, firefighters and tradespeople - other deductions can reduce or even eliminate the value of child care and RRSP deductions.
I want to replace the Registered Retirement Savings Plan deduction with a grant that would equal 15 per cent of your RRSP contribution.
For the nine out of 10 Ontarians who earn up to $80,000, this 15 per cent grant would be more than their current deductions.
Yet it's fiscally neutral - it replaces one set of taxpayer benefits with a different set that's more fair and reaches more Ontario families.
Right now, RRSP deductions cost Ontario's treasury about $2.1 billion, in lost taxes. My plan will replace those deductions with grants totaling $2 billion - costing the treasury $100 million less.
I'd also replace the child care deduction with a 10 per cent refundable child care grant.
Right now, child care deductions cost Ontario's treasury $195 million, in lost taxes. My plan will replace those deductions with grants totaling $187 million - that's $8 million less.
More than eight out of 10 families in Ontario with child care expenses would receive more.
No-money-down university or college tuition would reach even more Ontario students and their families.
My student plan is the next step - renewal if you will - that builds on Ontario Liberals' highly successful 30% Off Tuition plan that we brought in after the 2011 election.
Even with 30 per cent off, school can be a burdensome upfront expense. No-money-down tuition eases the costs and terms of borrowing to go to school.
Instead of paying immediately on their own, students will be able to choose to borrow for each year of study up to $4,000 for college tuition and fees or $7,000 for undergrad tuition and fees.
You would not to repay until you get a good job after graduation.
After graduation, repayment of loans and the interest rate applied would be on a sliding scale, depending on your income after you graduate. I would also create tax incentives so employers can assume a student's debt.
Loans would be interest free during study and for 12 months after graduation and also interest free if you go on maternity or parental leave. And your loan would be forgiven if you became permanently disabled or due to circumstances were unable to pay it back after 25 years.
No-money-down university or college tuition keeps funding in our postsecondary system, where it's needed. It's a different way of financing, not a grant program that costs the provincial treasury.
Right now, provincial tax credits for tuition and education cost Ontario about $335 million a year. That's enough to pay for the financing charges of no-money-down tuition.
Best of all, my plan shifts the payment time in the lives of students and families to when they can better afford it.
It's a tuition system that works in other countries, and it could work here too - as part of Ontario's renewal.
-30-
Glen Murray, former Ontario Minister of Training Colleges and Universities, is running for Ontario Liberal Party Leader.
This op-ed and photo are supplied for the use of your publication. For more information, contact Emily Kirk at 647.668.1076 or emily.kirk@renewliberal.ca.