LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 24/12

Bible Quotation for today/Teaching about Anger
Matthew 05/21-26: "You have heard that people were told in the past, Do not commit murder; anyone who does will be brought to trial. But now I tell you: if you are angry with your brother you will be brought to trial, if you call your brother You good-for-nothing! you will be brought before the Council, and if you call your brother a worthless fool you will be in danger of going to the fire of hell. So if you are about to offer your gift to God at the altar and there you remember that your brother has something against you, leave your gift there in front of the altar, go at once and make peace with your brother, and then come back and offer your gift to God. If someone brings a lawsuit against you and takes you to court, settle the dispute while there is time, before you get to court. Once you are there, you will be turned over to the judge, who will hand you over to the police, and you will be put in jail. There you will stay, I tell you, until you pay the last penny of your fine."

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
The Baghdad Nuclear Talks: Three Steps to Help Diplomacy Succeed/By: Michael Singh/The Washington InstituteMay 23/12
By opposing deal Iran's, IAEA Israel may isolate itself more than Iran/By Amir Oren/Haaretz/ May.23/12
Two important lessons from Saudi Arabia and the UAE/By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 23/12
 

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for May 23/12
Iran makes five-point proposal to world powers in Baghdad nuclear talks
Japan breaks oil embargo against Iran before Baghdad talks end
Saudi king says deeply concerned about Lebanon violence
British government considers Iran war options: BBC
Hezbollah appeals for calm after Syria kidnapping
Hezbollah wins pledge that Lebanese hostages will be released
Mansour Says Lebanese Abducted in Aleppo to be Freed as Women Arrive in Beirut
Sleiman contacts Saudi king, praises Berri, Nasrallah
Suleiman: Jaafari's Letter to U.N. Not Based on Verified Facts
Three Lebanese Pilgrims Killed in Iraq Bus Bombing
Blast shakes compound inhabited by Syrian workers in south Lebanon
3 people wounded in Lebanon shooting incident
Asiri: Plan in place for evacuating Saudis in Lebanon should need arise
Al-Rahi: Collapse of Syria’s Dictatorship Won’t Affect Christians
Connelly Meets Rifi, Expresses Concern over Security Situation in Lebanon
Qahwaji Calls on Army to be Keen on Lives of Lebanese and be Responsible
Aoun: Some Powers Trying to Spread Syrian Unrest to Lebanon to Make us Surrender to Foreign Forces
Clash Erupts between Phalange, Hizbullah Students at USJ
Fierce clashes as Syria forces assault rebel bastion: activists
Syria conflict 'real threat' to Lebanon: Russia
Egyptians vote for Mubarak successor in historic poll rule
Syria says sanctions have cost country $4 billion
Diplomat: Iran deal maintains nuclear sanctions, Israeli 'cynicism' unwarranted
Israeli official downplays Iran nuclear deal with IAEA, citing past violations
U.S. official: IAEA, Iran nuclear deal doesn't spell end of American pressure
Obama secretly approves top-of-the-line anti-tank arms for Syrian rebels
At least 16 Lebanese abducted by Syria rebels near Aleppo
Nasrallah urges calm after kidnap of Lebanese in Syria
High hopes for release of Lebanese hostages
Mawlawi, newly freed: I confessed under duress
Tensions ebb in north after Mawlawi freed
Mikati, Future MPs step up war of words
Hezbollah calls Future Movement a militia

Obama secretly approves top-of-the-line anti-tank arms for Syrian rebels
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 22, 2012/Monday, May 21, UN Secretary Ban Ki-moon said he was "extremely troubled about the risk of an all-out civil war (in Syria) and was concerned about the outbreak of related violence in Lebanon." He spoke as dozens of Syrians died in clashes - mostly in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib and the town of Homs - while two people were killed in Beirut in a spillover of Syrian bloodshed. Sunday, at the NATO summit in Chicago, Secretary Anders Fogh Rasmussen said firmly that the alliance has "no intention" of taking military action against President Bashar Assad's regime. But he said nothing about individual NATO members translating their concern about the escalating violence in Syria into military action. Above all, he did not explain why Syrian army heavy T-72 tanks have in recent days started bursting into flames on the open roads.
debkafile’s military sources disclose the cause: The Syrian rebels have received their first “third generation” anti-tank weapons, 9K115-2 Metis-M and Kornet E. They are supplied by Saudi and Qatari intelligence agencies following a secret message from President Barack Obama advising them to up the military stake in the effort to oust Assad.
Saturday, May 19, President Obama said in a speech to the G-8 summit at Camp David that “Bashar al-Assad must leave power.” Listening to him were Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev whose government strongly opposes the bid to topple Assad and is helping him to weather the uprising against his rule.
Medvedev and Chinese leader Hu Jintao both kept silent after Obama spoke. Both would have had intelligence updates relayed to Camp David on the latest turn of events in Syria.
The supply of powerful anti-tank missiles to the Syrian rebels is intended to achieve two purposes:
1. To impede Syrian military tank movements between flashpoints. During the 14-month uprising, there was nothing to stop Syrian tanks criss-crossing the country as back-up for the official crackdown on dissent. But in recent weeks, trucks hauling the T-72 are being blown up before they reach their destinations.
2. The sight of blazing tanks is intended to undermine army morale and puncture the self-assurance of the security circles surrounding the president.
The anti-tank missiles reaching the rebels through Saudi and Qatari channels are only one facet of the unfolding US plan for the Syrian crisis, our military sources report. Turkish intelligence has been given the green light to arm Syria rebels with IED roadside bombs tailored for the Syrian theater and intensively train the dissidents in their use at Turkish military facilities. This is tantamount to Ankara’s first direct military intervention in Syria.
How will Assad and his backers in Tehran and Moscow handle the upscale of rebel munitions?
According to our sources, the Syrian ruler and his cronies are not shaken in their conviction that even with heavy weapons in play they will suppress the revolt, because the majority of the population is still behind the regime and because the rebels will find it hard to wield the advanced systems, especially by day.
But his Russian and Iranian military and intelligence advisers are growing less sanguine as they watch foreign military intervention expand step by step. They are warning the Syrian ruler that the advanced missiles reaching the rebels represent the most dangerous development his regime has faced to date. They reckon that, after failing to ignite a full-dress unified rebellion inside the main Syrian cities, the West and the Arab states have turned to equipping anti-Assad rebel forces for pursuing sustained guerilla warfare between the big cities - on the main roads and in rural and mountainous areas.
Russian and Iranian tacticians agree that the Syrian army, like most other regular armies, is not trained or structured for combating guerilla forces. Adapting it to the new peril would be a long process.

Iran makes five-point proposal to world powers in Baghdad nuclear talks
By Barak Ravid | May.23, 2012/Haaretz
At this point, there has been no breakthrough between world powers and Iran, but some progress was made in Wednesday afternoon round of talks.For three hours on Wednesday afternoon, representatives of six world powers and Iran sat in the official guest house of Baghdad's secure "Green Zone" and discussed Iran's nuclear program. At this point, there are still no signs of a breakthrough but the afternoon round of talks achieved some progress.  After EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who is managing the talks on behalf of six major world powers (United States, Russia, China, France, Britain, and Germany), presented a package of confidence-building measures, the Iranian delegation submitted for the first time its own proposal. The written proposal submitted by the Iranian negotiating team, which is led by Saeed Jalili, includes five points. The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported that some of the points dealt with the nuclear program while the rest dealt with other unrelated matters. According to the same report, the Iranians are offering a series of practical steps that each side will carry out in exchange for the other side's step. The Iranians emphasized that their proposal is based on the principles of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). After the afternoon talks, the sides took a break for a few hours to hold internal discussions on the proposals they had received. In the coming hours, the talks in Baghdad will be renewed and will probably continue on Thursday. It is also expected that a meeting will be held between Ashton and Jalili, without the representatives of other powers. A separate meeting is expected to be held between Jalili and the Chinese representative. Ashton presented the world powers' proposal orally, not in a written document. The blogger Laura Rosen, who is in Baghdad to cover the talks, reported that the proposal includes a requirement that Iran suspend uranium enrichment at the 20 percent level at the underground Fordow facility near Qom and also that Iran agree to send abroad 100 kilograms of uranium enriched to the 20 percent level that is already in its possession. Iran in return would receive a shipment of nuclear fuel from one of the six powers for the nuclear research reactor in Tehran and also have the old research reactor, which has severe safety problems, upgraded. In addition, the proposal includes the upgrading of the Bushehr reactor, both in safety and in possible assistance in the establishment of a new nuclear research reactor. The package also includes replacement parts for Iran's civilian aviation fleet, which suffers from serious maintenance problems.


At least 16 Lebanese abducted by Syria rebels near Aleppo
May 22, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: At least 16 Lebanese men returning from a pilgrimage in Iraq were kidnapped by rebels in Syria Tuesday, a Lebanese security source, and Hezbollah’s leader called on Lebanese angered by the abduction to exercise restraint and said efforts were under way to secure their release.
Quoting a member of the Syrian opposition, Reuters agency reported that Syrian forces launched raids with tanks and other armored vehicles in an area of northern Aleppo province near the place where Lebanese Shiite pilgrims were kidnapped. The Lebanese source said the abducted men were among a group of about 100 Lebanese returning home from the pilgrimage to Iraq via Syria in two buses.
The rebels appear to have abducted the men to exchange them for jailed Syrians, the source added.
"The Free Syrian Army (FSA) said they took them. They let women go and kept the men. They told them that they will keep them until the Syrian army releases FSA detainees," a relative of one of the men was quoted by Reuters as saying."When we crossed the border around 40 gunmen stopped the bus and forced it into a nearby orchard and said women should stay on the bus and men get out," Hayat Awali, who identified herself as a passenger, told Lebanon's Al Jadeed TV from Aleppo.
"We told them we are only pilgrims. They said 'take your pilgrims and go the police station in Aleppo and tell them we have prisoners there and we want them'."
A member of one of the disparate bands of insurgents who fight under the umbrella of the FSA, contacted by Reuters through the Internet telephone channel Skype in Aleppo, denied any personal knowledge of the abduction. Upon hearing the news of the adduction, angry relatives took to the streets of the southern suburb of Beirut where most of the kidnapped live and blocked several roads by burning tires.
The roads soon reopened after Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah called for calm.
“On behalf of Hezbollah and Amal I call on all relatives and supporters in the various regions to cooperate to end the closure of roads. Blocking roads does no good,” Nasrallah, who spoke on Al-Manar TV, said, expressing concern of attempts to stir conflict between the people and the Lebanese Army or “take the country to some place else.”
Nasrallah said efforts were under way to secure the release of the kidnapped men. “The priority now is how to resolve the issue. We and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will deal with this issue with the utmost responsibility,” he said. “The government should also bear its responsibility and we are all willing to help in the release of the abducted Lebanese,” he added.
He said Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Berri had already launched contacts and “we have also begun contacts on the side.” Nasrallah also blasted media reports about possible revenge kidnappings of Syrians in Lebanon. “It is forbidden to talk about the kidnapping of Syrians in Lebanon or other expats from other sisterly countries,” he said. The adduction was condemned by the head of the opposition Future Movement. In a telephone conversation with Berri, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri “denounced in the strongest terms the kidnapping, regardless of the side that is behind it.”“[Hariri expressed] complete solidarity with the families of the relatives of the kidnapped,” a statement from Hariri’s office said. He also stressed the need that all efforts be taken in order that the kidnapped be released and returned to their loved ones.

Al-Rahi: Collapse of Syria’s Dictatorship Won’t Affect Christians
Naharnet/23 May 2012/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi has expressed confidence that Syria’s Christians would not be affected if the regime of President Bashar Assad collapses in the ongoing turmoil in the country. “The Syrian regime is dictatorial and the Lebanese have suffered from it,” al-Rahi told the Kuwaiti al-Seyassah newspaper published on Wednesday. “Assad’s collapse does not affect at all the presence of Christians in Syria because they support the authorities no matter what they are and are not loyal to political systems,” he said in the interview carried out over the weekend during his visit to the U.S. city of St. Louis. “As long as they are not involved in politics in Arab countries with one-party systems, a single religion and a single opinion, then we don’t have fear on them,” al-Rahi stressed. The patriarch said he was not worried over the collapse of the Syrian regime but expressed fears of a civil war in the neighboring country, the division of the state and the advance of extremists to power. “All Muslim sects are moderates but extremists are unfortunately coming to power with the support of some countries to create instability,” he told his interviewer. The head of the Maronite church reiterated that the Lebanese should unite under the ceiling of the nation and not their sects. “There are contradictory regional and international interests, and money and promises are pouring … to create strife,” he warned. “The problem lies in the lack of loyalty of Lebanese to their state,” al-Rahi said. “Instead they are either loyal to their sects or to a party.”

Three Lebanese Pilgrims Killed in Iraq Bus Bombing
Naharnet/ 23 May 2012/A roadside bomb exploded near a bus carrying Lebanese Shiite pilgrims in a Sunni area of western Iraq on Wednesday, killing three and wounding 10 others, Iraqi police and medical sources said. "A roadside bomb exploded in the Khamsat Kilo area as a bus carrying Lebanese pilgrims... passed on the highway, killing three of them and wounding 10," a first lieutenant in the Anbar provincial police said, referring to an area west of the provincial capital Ramadi. A medical source at a mortuary in Ramadi confirmed the death toll, saying that it had received the bodies of three women. A lieutenant colonel in the Ramadi police said there were around 40 Lebanese Shiite pilgrims on the bus, among them women and children, who were headed to Shiite holy sites.
Meanwhile, al-Jadeed television said the bus belongs to the Shams al-Doha campaign, which was organized by Abdullah Nader. Iraq is home to some of the holiest sites in Shiite Islam, to which hundreds of thousands of pilgrims flock each year. Pilgrims are periodically attacked, often by bombs. On Tuesday 13 Lebanese Shiite pilgrims were kidnapped from a bus in Syria's northern Aleppo province. SourceAgence France Presse.

Qahwaji Calls on Army to be Keen on Lives of Lebanese and be Responsible
Naharnet/ 23 May 2012/Army chief Gen. Jean Qahwaji called on the military on Wednesday to be keen on the lives of the Lebanese by carrying out its mission responsibly following unrest in Northern Lebanon and Beirut. The latest incidents in the North “proved once again that everyone relies on your role to prevent sedition and impose stability,” Qahwaji said in the Order of the Day on the occasion of Liberation Day, which falls on Friday.“Be keen on the lives of your fellow compatriots by carrying out your mission with precision and responsibility,” he told soldiers. “The defense and security missions are complementary in the preservation of the nation’s sovereignty and the country’s highest interest,” the general added. Lebanon has been engulfed in turmoil since May 12 when Islamist Shadi al-Mawlawi was arrested by the General Security Department in the northern city of Tripoli on charges of contacting a terrorist organization. His arrest led to deadly gunbattles between the rival neighborhoods of Bab al-Tabbaneh, which is majority Sunni, and the Alawite Jabal Mohsen. Al-Mawlawi was released on bail on Tuesday. But the army came under scrutiny when on Sunday a Lebanese soldier shot and killed anti-Syrian Sunni cleric Sheikh Ahmed Abdul Wahed and his companion at al-Kweikhat checkpoint in the northern Akkar region. This caused deadly fighting with rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns between al-Mustaqbal movement and Arab Movement party members in Beirut’s Tariq al-Jedideh neighborhood. Qahwaji rejected in his Order of the Day attempts “to tamper with the security, the livelihood and the dignity” of the Lebanese.  He also slammed any effort to take advantage of Lebanon’s democracy and the regional situation to “destroy the state’s foundations and create cracks in the unity of the nation.”

Suleiman: Jaafari's Letter to U.N. Not Based on Verified Facts
Naharnet/23 May 2012/President Michel Suleiman on Wednesday said that a letter sent to United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon by Syria’s envoy to the U.N. Bashar al-Jaafari was not based on “verified facts.”“It is not based on verified facts, and moreover the information of the Army Command and the Lebanese security agencies say totally otherwise,” Suleiman told U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Derek Plumbly during a meeting at the Baabda Palace. In his letter, Jaafari claimed that some Lebanese areas near the Lebanese-Syrian border “have become an incubator for terrorist elements from the al-Qaida and the Muslim Brotherhood organizations who are tampering with the security of Syria and its citizens.” The letter also claims that “50 terrorists are stationed in the town of al-Qalamoun in Tripoli under the command of Khaled al-Tanak, Khaled Hamza and Zakariya Ghaleb al-Khouli.” The letter said the alleged terrorists “possess IDs carrying the stamp of the U.N. that they use to go through Lebanese army checkpoints.” Separately, Suleiman reiterated his condemnation of the kidnap of Lebanese pilgrims in Syria on Tuesday, lauding the pacifying stances of several Lebanese leaders, especially Speaker Nabih Berri and Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
Meanwhile, senior Fatah official Azzam al-Ahmed and Palestinian Ambassador to Lebanon Ashraf Dabbour visited Suleiman to discuss Lebanese-Palestinian ties and the situations of the Palestinians in Lebanon. The conferees agreed on the need to keep Palestinian refugee camps calm, stable and away from involvement in Lebanese domestic affairs.
The president was also briefed by army intelligence director Brig. Gen. Edmond Fadel and General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim about the security situations in the country and the available information on the latest security incidents.
Earlier on Wednesday, Suleiman discussed the latest developments in Lebanon with Saudi King Abdullah and Qatari Emir Qatar's emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani during a phone conversation.
Suleiman contacted Abdullah on Tuesday and tackled regional and global issues of common interest, the official Kuwaiti KUNA news agency reported.
According to the news agency, the two also discussed the bilateral ties.
Qatari news agency QNA reported, that Suleiman tackled with the Qatari emir the bilateral ties and the developments in the region.
The president also sent a cable to Turkish President Abdullah Gul and United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, the National News Agency said.
On Tuesday, Abdullah said that the kingdom is monitoring the situation in Lebanon with “deep concern” following the clashes in the northern city of Tripoli, “especially since they targeted a main sect in the country.” He urged Suleiman in a cable to end the crisis through his call for national dialogue and keenness to keep Lebanon away from regional disputes, most notably the Syrian crisis.
Clashes erupted last week in Tripoli between the two rival neighborhoods of Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen after the General Security Department detained Islamist Shadi al-Mawlawi on charges of belonging to a terrorist group. On Sunday the clashes spilled to Akkar after Sheikh Ahmed Abdul Wahed was shot dead along with his companion Sheikh Mohammed Hussein Merheb at an army checkpoint in the northern town of al-Kweikhat. The tension soon spread to Beirut where several areas of the Lebanese capital were blocked by burning tires.
 

High hopes for release of Lebanese hostages
May 23, 2012/By Wassim Mroueh/The Daily Star
One of the pilgrims who was allowed to leave is reunited with her family.
BEIRUT: Hezbollah and the Lebanese government said Tuesday they were hopeful that 13 Lebanese men who had been abducted by rebels in Syria while returning from a pilgrimage in Iran would be freed soon.“There are indications that make us hopeful that the issue of the kidnapped will be resolved soon,” said Nabatieh MP Mohammad Raad, head of the party’s parliamentary bloc. Raad was speaking to reporters at Rafik Hariri International Airport, where the pilgrims who had not been abducted – 51 women and four men – arrived from Aleppo after midnight. The group had been traveling aboard two buses through Syria from a pilgrimage in Iran and ran into trouble near Aleppo. Inham Yatim, a pilgrim, said that armed men in a white car forced them to move to an orchard under the pretext of protecting them from shelling. The male pilgrims were then handcuffed and made to face a wall.
Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour said it had been determined that the kidnapped men were being held by an opposition group, adding that a senior Arab official had told him that calls had been made and the men – who were unharmed – could be released in the coming hours. Earlier in the day, Mansour telephoned Syria’s Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Kuwait’s Sheikh Sabah Khaled al-Sabah. Quoting a member of the Syrian opposition, Reuters reported that Syrian forces had launched raids with tanks and other armored vehicles in an area of northern Aleppo province near the site where the abduction had taken place. “The Free Syrian Army said they took them. They let women go and kept the men. They told them that they would keep them until the Syrian army releases FSA detainees,” a relative of one of the men was quoted by Reuters as saying.
“When we crossed the border, around 40 gunmen stopped the bus and forced it into a nearby orchard and said women should stay on the bus and men should get out,” Hayat Awali, who identified herself as a pilgrim, told Lebanon’s Al-Jadeed TV from Aleppo. An FSA spokesperson strongly denied that the group had been behind the abduction. On hearing news of the abduction, angry relatives took to the streets of Beirut’s southern suburbs – where most of the kidnapped live – blocking roads with burning tires. The roads reopened soon after Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah called for calm. “On behalf of Hezbollah and Amal, I call on all relatives and supporters in the various regions to cooperate to end the closure of roads. Blocking roads does no good,” said Nasrallah on Al-Manar TV, expressing concern over attempts to create conflict between the people and the Lebanese Army.
The Hezbollah leader added that efforts were under way to secure the release of the kidnapped men. “The priority now is how to resolve the issue. We and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will deal with this issue with the utmost responsibility.” “The government should also bear its responsibility and we are all willing to help in the release of the abducted Lebanese,” he added.
Nasrallah said Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Berri had already made contacts and “we have also begun contacts on the side.”
The Hezbollah leader also blasted media reports of possible revenge kidnappings of Syrians in Lebanon. “It is forbidden to talk about the kidnapping of Syrians in Lebanon or other expats from other sisterly countries,” he said. The abduction was also condemned by the head of the opposition Future Movement. In a telephone conversation with Berri, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, the movement’s leader, “denounced in the strongest terms the kidnapping, regardless of the group behind it.”
“[Hariri expressed] complete solidarity with the families of the kidnapped,” said a statement from Hariri’s office.
In separate statement, Hariri said: “The kidnappers should know that the Lebanese people are united in this issue and we deal with it as a Lebanese national cause, which doesn’t afford any interpretation or bargaining.” President Michel Sleiman also spoke with Berri to discuss efforts to release the men, while Raad telephoned Sleiman on behalf of Nasrallah, thanking him for his concern. Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt also contacted the speaker. Berri and Mikati also called foreign officials in an effort to secure the release of the pilgrims. For his part, former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, the head of the Future parliamentary bloc, described the kidnapping as “unacceptable.” “On behalf of my colleagues in the Future bloc, we reiterate our condemnation of these acts from any side ... and our call for the release of the withheld,” Siniora said. – With additional reporting by Atallah al-Salim

Nasrallah urges calm after kidnap of Lebanese in Syria
 May 22, 2012/The Daily Star
This file picture shows Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah speaking on a TV screen during a ceremony in Beirut's southern suburbs. (The Daily Star/Hasan Shaaban)
BEIRUT: Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah urged calm Tuesday after news of the abduction of at least 13 Lebanese in Syria and said contacts were under way with Syrian authorities and others to help resolve the matter. “On behalf of Hezbollah and Amal I call on all relatives and supporters in the various regions to cooperate to end the closure of roads. Blocking roads does no good,” Nasrallah, who spoke on Al-Manar TV, said, expressing concern of attempts to stir conflict between the people and the Lebanese Army or “take the country to some place else.” Lebanese security sources told The Daily Star that at least 13 Lebanese men returning from a pilgrimage to Shiite holy shrines in Iraq were kidnapped by Syrian rebels near the city of Aleppo in north Syria. Upon hearing the news, angry relatives took to the streets of the southern suburb of Beirut where most of the kidnapped live and blocked several roads by burning tires. “The priority now is how to resolve the issue. We and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will deal with this issue with the utmost responsibility,” he said.“The government should also bear its responsibility and we are all willing to help in the release of the abducted Lebanese,” he added.
He said Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Berri had already launched contacts and “we have also begun contacts on the side.” Nasrallah also blasted media reports about possible revenge kidnappings of Syrians in Lebanon. “It is forbidden to talk about the kidnapping of Syrians in Lebanon or other expats from other sisterly countries,” he said.

Tensions ebb in north after Mawlawi freed
May 23, 2012/By Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star
Mawlawi receives a hero’s welcome in Tripoli
BEIRUT: An Islamist supporter of the Syrian opposition was released on bail Tuesday after a 10-day detention, a move that has defused tensions in Tripoli, but reverberations over last week’s killing of a prominent anti-Assad Muslim preacher and his companion by Lebanese Army soldiers in Akkar cast a pall of gloom over stability in north Lebanon.
Shadi Mawlawi, whose arrest on May 12 triggered deadly clashes in Tripoli between armed supporters and detractors of Syrian President Bashar Assad, received a hero’s welcome when he arrived in the northern city following his release.
A jubilant Mawlawi acknowledged his support for the 15-month-old Syrian uprising against the Assad regime, saying such support was a national duty. He claimed he was tortured during interrogation.
“I was arrested because I helped Syrian refugees. Indeed, this was in support of Syria,” Mawlawi told reporters upon arrival at Finance Minister Mohammad Safadi’s Social Services Center in Tripoli where he had earlier been lured and arrested by General Security agents.
Mawlawi rejected terrorism charges leveled against him as baseless, saying his arrest had been politically motivated because of his support for the Syrian revolution. He vowed “to continue the struggle for this revolution.”
Asked to comment on media reports about his confessions, he said: “Yes, yes, I confessed to many things but only under duress and any person would have confessed to those things when placed under such psychological pressure and torture ... I later disavowed my confession.”
Mawlawi, who wore a black headband bearing the Muslim profession of faith, said his release had given him “some confidence in the judiciary.”
Mawlawi, who met after his release with Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the latter’s residence in Tripoli, thanked the premier and Safadi for their solidarity with his case.
Soon after Military Investigating Judge Nabil Wehbi approved his release, Mawlawi was whisked away from the Beirut Military Court in a car belonging to Safadi’s center in Tripoli.
Wehbi, acting on Military Prosecutor Judge Saqr Saqr’s recommendation, ruled that Mawlawi, 25, should be released on LL500,000 bail, but was banned from leaving the country.
An atmosphere of euphoria, punctuated by fireworks, prevailed in Tripoli after news of Mawlawi’s release spread. Residents, including Muslim sheikhs and the city’s notables, gathered at Tripoli’s main Nour Square where tents had been erected to protest his arrest and demand the release of around 180 Islamists who have been jailed for more than four years without charges or trials.
Roads in Tripoli witnessed normal activity as security forces set checkpoints in the city’s main squares, while Army units deployed in areas which had been the scenes of bloody clashes between pro- and anti-Assad supporters last week, the state-run National News Agency reported.
Despite Mawlawi’s release, organizers of a sit-in at Nour Square pledged that the protest would continue until the detained Islamists were released.
The detained Islamists had been arrested on charges of fighting or aiding fighters during the 2007 armed clashes between the Lebanese Army and the Palestinian militant group Fatah al-Islam in the northern refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared in Tripoli.
Interior Minister Marwan Charbel denied that Mawlawi’s release had been linked to political pressure, and said the decision had been purely “judicial.”
“His charge was a minor one. I learned that he was helping Syrian refugees. If this is the reason, then many Lebanese must be held accountable,” Charbel said.
Saqr has charged Mawlawi with belonging to an “armed terrorist group” intending to carry out acts of terror inside Lebanon and abroad. Judicial sources said Mawlawi’s case was built on the suspicion that he was a link between Abdul-Aziz Atiyeh, a Qatari who donated money to rebels in Syria, and the man who received the money and sent it to the rebels.
Charbel said Atiyeh had been extradited to Qatar because of his health condition, but a Jordanian linked to the case was still detained.
Charbel warned of sectarian street clashes unless rival political leaders reached agreement to defuse tensions. “We have been living in an abnormal situation for nine months. Now, we are living on the edge of a volcano,” he said. He expressed fears of Lebanon’s partition if the current situation persisted.
Mawlawi’s arrest sparked gunbattles in Tripoli, where tension has been simmering over the Syrian uprising. At least 11 people have been killed and 70 others wounded in the clashes pitting gunmen from the Jabal Mohsen neighborhood against rivals in Bab al-Tabbaneh. While residents in the mostly Sunni area of Bab al-Tabbaneh support the Syrian revolution, residents in predominantly Alawite Jabal Mohsen back the Assad regime.
The unrest spread to Beirut Sunday following the killing of Sheikh Ahmad Abdul-Wahed, a prominent anti-Assad Muslim preacher, and his companion, Sheikh Mohammad Hussein al-Mereb, at an Army checkpoint in the northern province of Akkar. Two people were killed in Sunday’s street clashes between Future Movement supporters and their rivals in the pro-Assad Arab Movement Party headed by Shaker Berjaoui in the Beirut neighborhood of Tariq al-Jadideh.
However, the celebratory atmosphere in Tripoli over Mawlawi’s release was dampened by tensions in Akkar, where the families of Abdul-Wahed and Mereb stopped receiving condolences in their hometown of Bireh to protest the government’s failure to refer the killing of the two men to the Judicial Council.
The families held a meeting attended by Future MPs Khaled Daher and Moueen Mereibi to discuss pressing the demand to refer the case to the Judicial Council, while protesters cut off roads at the entrances of Akkar.
Mikati told reporters at his residence in Tripoli that he did not object to referring the case of the slain sheikhs to the Judicial Council. “In principle, I do not have an objection to that, but before presenting it to Cabinet, we should first consult with the justice minister and look into the issue from a legal point of view,” he said. Mikati added that the judiciary had taken the appropriate measures toward the soldiers who were present at the checkpoint in the village of Kwaikhat in Akkar.
 

Hezbollah calls Future Movement a militia
May 22, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Hezbollah MPs Nawar Sahili and Ali Ammar accused the Future Movement Tuesday of exemplifying a militia and imposing its views on others. “The tragic events which resulted in the death of several Lebanese [in Beirut] confirm that the Future movement is a militia in every sense of the word,” Sahili said in a statement, referring to Monday’s clashes between Future Movement supporters and their rivals in the Arab Movement Party. In a separate statement Tuesday, Hezbollah MP Ali Ammar described the clashes as an attack on the offices of the Arab Movement Party, which is allied with Hezbollah, saying it was a violation of Beirut’s sanctity. “The attack by the Future Movement's militia on the center and members of the Arab Movement Party in Tariq al-Jadideh in the heart of Beirut using light and medium weaponry for many hours is a violation of Beirut's sanctity and a crime punishable by law,” Ammar said. He added that damage to buildings and properties was readily apparent.
Ammar also said that perpetrators should be punished to prevent the occurrence of similar incidents in the future and to bring the Future Movement back to “its right mind.”
Three people were killed and 15 others were wounded during the five-hour clashes in the Beirut neighborhood of Tariq al-Jadideh, raising the specter of instability engulfing more areas of the country.
Last week, supporters and opponents of President Bashar Assad clashed in the northern city of Tripoli leaving at least 11 killed and over 100 wounded.
The fighting was followed by the killing of two sheikhs including prominent Sheikh Ahmad Abdel-Wahed by army gunfire at a checkpoint in Akkar, north Lebanon. In response, enraged protesters blocked roads across the country including Beirut and Sidon. In his statement Tuesday, Sahili said that the Future Movement attempted to impose its viewpoint by force of arms which he said was contrary to the ethics they claim. “The Future Movement with its armed militia does not allow the state to play its role and is trying to be its substitute when the state is not under its command and political orientation,” he added. Future Movement politicians have repeatedly criticized what they describe as arms outside the jurisdiction of the state, asking the resistance party to surrender its weapons to the army.
Hezbollah has maintained that its arms are directed at Israel and necessary to combat the Jewish state’s violations of Lebanon’s sovereignty.
Meanwhile, head of the Future Movement Saad Hariri said on his Twitter feed Tuesday that he would reject arms as long as he is alive.
Asked about his response to reports that his party was showcasing its military power, Hariri said: “The problem is that some people kill the victim and walk in his funeral and accuse his relatives of his murder when they ask for righteousness and justice.” “Arms [will remain] unacceptable for as long as I live,” he added.
The former prime minister whose Cabinet collapsed last year after Hezbollah ministers and their allies resigned from the government also called on the Lebanese to have faith in their country, adding that those who try to incite an angry reaction will fail given his "resolve for peace" in Lebanon.

Mawlawi, newly freed: I confessed under duress
May 22, 2012/By Youssef Diab The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Islamist Shadi Mawlawi, whose arrest triggered deadly clashes in northern Lebanon last week, arrived in Tripoli following his release on bail Tuesday.
"Yes, yes, I confessed, but only under psychological pressure," Mawlawi told reporters upon arrival at Finance Minister Mohammad Safadi's Social Services Center in Tripoli, north Lebanon -- the very location where he was arrested.Mawlawi, who wore a black headband bearing the Muslim profession of faith, insisted that his confession was null and void due to the manner in which it was extracted.
"I confessed to many things but only under pressure and any person would have confessed to those things when placed under such psychological pressure ... I later disavowed my confession."
Soon after Military Investigating Judge Nabil Wehbi approved his release, Mawlawi was whisked away from the Beirut Military Court in a dark Peugot belonging to Safadi.
Following his appearance at Safadi's Social Services Center, Mawlawi met with Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the latter's private residence in Tripoli.
General Security personnel dressed in civilian clothes lured Mawlawi on May 12 to Safadi's center in Tripoli with promises of medical care, only to arrest him.
Safadi and other government officials had denounced the way Mawlawi was apprehended.
Wehbi, following Militay Prosecutor Saqr Saqr’s recommendation, ruled Tuesday that Mawlawi should be released on LL500,000 bail, but banned the 25-year-old Islamist from leaving the country.
Despite the new development, organizers of a sit-in at Tripoli's Nour Square demanding Mawlawi's release pledged that the sit-in would continue until the release of at least 123 Islamist prisoners who have been detained for years without charge.
Interior Minister Marwan Charbel denied that Mawlawi's release was linked to political pressure, and said the decision was purely "judicial."
Last week, Saqr charged Mawlawi and five other Lebanese suspects with belonging to an “armed terrorist organization intending to carry out crimes against people as well as public and private institutions.”
Mawlawi’s arrest on May 12 sparked gunbattles in Tripoli, where tension has been simmering over the 15-month-old uprising against the Assad regime.
At least 11 people were killed in three days of clashes between residents of Bab al-Tabbaneh who support the Syrian revolution and others in nearby Jabal Mohsen who back the Assad regime.
Judicial sources had said Mawlawi’s case was built on the suspicion that he was a link between Abdel-Aziz Atiyeh, a Qatari who donated money to rebels in Syria, and the man who received the money and sent it to the rebels.
Other judicial sources said Tuesday that an investigative probe showed that Mawlawi had no links to Al-Qaeda.
"It turns out that the accusations leveled against Mawlawi ... were false," one source told The Daily Star. --With additional reporting by Antoine Amrieh in Tripoli.

U.S. official: IAEA, Iran nuclear deal doesn't spell end of American pressure
By Natasha Mozgovaya and Chemi Shalev | May.22, 2012/Haaretz
State Department spokesperson says UN-led talks are only one of two tracks on Iran issue, adding Tehran still required to take concrete steps to alleviate concerns regarding its nuclear program. In a first official reaction to the emerging deal between Iran and the United Nations' nuclear watchdog, U.S. officials made it clear Tuesday that while the reported agreement was a positive sign, it did not mean Washington intended to let up its pressure on the Islamic Republic over its continued nuclear program. Referring to the reported IAEA-Iran deal, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said, "Obviously, we fully support IAEA efforts to try to resolve the outstanding issues," adding that the administration's "understanding is that they are still working on the precise terms."  However, Nuland made it clear that "the announcement of the deal is one thing, but the implementation is what we're going to be looking for, for Iran to truly follow through and provide the access to all of the locations, the documents and the personnel that the IAEA requires in order to determine whether Iran's program is exclusively for peaceful purposes." She added that the U.S. was "looking for Iran to demonstrate unequivocally that its program is peaceful. There are separate but linked tracks for doing that."
"One is to do what the IAEA needs, to demonstrate it has seen all the locations and all of the documents. The other is to work with the EU three plus three on concrete steps to give more reassurance of the kind that we're seeking," Nuland added. Nuland said that she didn’t think "we see them as part and parcel of the effort that we're looking for on the part of Iran," adding that the Iranian regime needs to provide results on both the IAEA track and the Baghdad talks. Honing in on the emerging deal, Nuland said that what "the IAEA is involved in is verifying, on behalf of the international community, that the things that Iran is saying are true, are actually true. So in the context of any kind of an understanding that might be reached in the EU three plus three context, you would still want the IAEA to be able to verify the implementation of all of those things." Also Tuesday, White House spokesman Jay Carney called the IAEA agreement with Iran "a step in the right direction," but said the U.S. would "make judgments about Iran's behavior based on actions, not just promises or agreements."
He added that the U.S. would continue to put pressure on Iran and planned to move ahead with sanctions. "We're not at the stage of negotiating what Iran would get in return for fulfillment of its obligations, beyond the general principle, which is they would be able to rejoin the community of nations," he said. Also commenting on news of an upcoming deal, U.S. President Barack Obama's former senior advisor Dennis Ross, currently a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, indicated that the negotiations taking place are designed to maintain pressure on the Iranians, as opposed to letting it up.
"It sends them a message that they can't play for time - the Iranians shouldn't have any illusions they can do minimum and get maximum in return," he said, adding however that he didn't believe talks in Baghdad mark a "make or break" moment. "It's unrealistic to see a breakthrough at this point after only two rounds of talks, the process has to be much more continuous", he said, adding, "There has to be an indication on substance or the nature of the process. Since the window of opportunity won't be open forever, the sooner we understand what kind of process we are in, the better."
"Suspension of enrichment is something that stops the clock and provides space and time to tackle the issue of the nuclear program. Another track could be changing the character of the program - having nuclear civil power will require firewalls that will ensure it cannot be translated to nuclear weapons capability."
Ross said the Obama administration's position is not to accept limited enrichment - but he also rejected the notion of the need to provide a clear red line. "One has to be careful about the red lines - because historically others think everything is allowed up to the red line," he said.
He added that the U.S. administration stays in close contact with the Israeli leadership on this matter. "It's no coincidence [Israel's Defense Minister Ehud] Barak came to visit Washington last week. I am sure the goal of this visit was to be a part of this discussion. Israeli positions have some impact on ours and there is no intention to surprise." Also on Tuesday, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee Ileana Ros-Lehtinen commended the Senate's approval of Iran sanctions on Monday, echoing the skepticism expressed by the Israeli leadership ahead of the Baghdad meeting. "I am deeply concerned that the so-called agreement reached between Iran and the IAEA will only be used as yet another stalling tactic to afford the Iranian regime greater time to acquire nuclear weapons capabilities", she said, adding, "It's deja vu all over again."
Ros-Lehtinen said that it had been "ten years since Iran's covert nuclear program was discovered by the IAEA, after decades had gone by when the regime successfully hid its nuclear activities from the world." "It has been ten years of manipulation by Tehran of international inspections. And for decades, the regime has ignored its international obligations. Yet, the IAEA seems content to give Iran a pass in exchange for yet more empty promises. Fortunately, Congress has not bought into this dangerous and foolhardy approach. I am gratified that the Senate finally passed its Iran sanctions legislation, although I am concerned that the legislation is not strong enough," she added. U.S., Israel 'on same page' ahead of talks
The Obama administration will dispatch a delegation of senior officials to nuclear talks with Iran that are scheduled to resume on Wednesday in Baghdad, according to well-placed sources in the U.S.
The delegation will coordinate U.S. positions with Israel in the talks, and will also try to allay Israeli concerns about possible compromises that the P5+1 group might be willing to make in the talks with Tehran. This was also one of the objectives of the discussions held Tuesday between a senior delegation of the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations and several high-ranking administration officials, led by Vice President Joe Biden. Biden and other officials told the delegation, led by Conference Chairman Richard Stone and its CEO, Malcolm Hoenlein, that the U.S. is in constant contact with its Israeli counterparts in the Defense Ministry and in the Foreign Ministry, and that the U.S. is “on the same page” with Israel concerning the demands from Tehran.
The Americans, led by Biden, reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to prevent Tehran from “developing or purchasing” a nuclear weapons, although they were vague on their position concerning the prevention of Iranian “capability” to produce weapons, and they refrained from getting into the details of the how much nuclear enrichment Iran could continue and under what conditions.
Well-placed observers said the administration seeks to “lower the volume” of Israeli criticism of the negotiations, especially as these “haven’t moved anywhere yet.” The delegation and the messages to the Conference delegation are meant to allay Israeli concerns, the sources said. In addition to the vice president, the Conference delegates met with Denis McDonough, Deputy National Security Advisor; Thomas Nides, Deputy Secretary of State; Steven Simon, Senior Director for Middle East and North Africa at the National Security Council; David Cohen, Undersecretary of Treasury for Terrorism & Financial Intelligence; John Cohen, Principal Deputy Coordinator for Counterterrorism, Department of Homeland Security; and Jarrod Bernstein, White House Director of Jewish Outreach.

Diplomat: Iran deal maintains nuclear sanctions, Israeli 'cynicism' unwarranted
By Anshel Pfeffer and Avi Issacharoff | May.22, 2012/Haaretz
Speaking to Haaretz, official involved in P5+1 talks due to take place in Baghdad rejects Israel's criticism of burgeoning agreement; Iran inserts fuel rods into Tehran research reactor. A newly formed deal between Iran and world powers does not guarantee the lifting of economic sanctions, a western diplomat involved in the talks said on Tuesday, rejecting Israeli accusations, according to which talks provide Iran with more time to advance its nuclear weapons program. The diplomat's comments came following an announcement by Yukiya Amano, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in which he indicated that he had reached an agreement with Iran on probing suspected work on atomic weapons, adding that he hoped the agreement would "be signed quite soon."
Amano's announcement was met with skepticism in Israel, with a senior official warning of Tehran's history of ignoring agreements, adding that the "IAEA's last report refers to the military intentions of Iran's nuclear program. North Korea has also reached agreements with the IAEA in the past, and this ended in two nuclear attempts."
Speaking to Haaretz later Tuesday, a western diplomat involved in the talks with Iran, due to begin Wednesday in Baghdad, said that "for the first time, it is clear that the Iranians are willing to engage in concrete issues and talk about the uranium enrichment."
The diplomat rejected claims being made in Israel that the talks are simply allowing the Iranians more time to proceed in developing nuclear weapons, saying: "Nobody here is naïve," adding that "we know full well the history of negotiations with Iran, and their history of hiding things, but we have a responsibility to go down the diplomatic route and see if an agreement can be reached."
"There is room for skepticism, but the cynicism we are hearing from Israeli is unwarranted," he added.
The diplomat heralded the imminent agreement between the Iranians and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on new inspections of Iran's nuclear installations, saying that "Iranian cooperation with the IAEA is sine qua non, to a framework treaty between Iran and the international community" and that there had been no promise to an easing of international sanctions on Iran in return for this agreement." In response to Israeli accusations that the negotiators were willing to accept empty Iranian promises, the diplomat said that "we are not just taking promises and good atmosphere as proof."
"We will require concrete steps from the Iranian and we will have to see movement on the uranium issue. Without these steps, without traction on uranium enrichment, there will be no easing of the sanctions," he added. He added that current "sanctions now are so complex and expensive to the Iranians that we can tentatively remove one or two elements while keeping most of the sanctions in place. The sanctions won't be an on-off switch but bargaining chips." The diplomat stressed that they were demanding the Iranians concede both on the level of uranium enrichment and on the uranium that has already been enriched to 20 percent. He said also that the talks would not end in Baghdad, "but it's about a framework that will include also other aspects of the Iranian program."
Earlier Tuesday, Iran's official news agency IRNA reported that Iranian scientists had inserted a domestically made fuel rod, which contains pellets of 20 percent enriched uranium, into the core of a research nuclear reactor in Tehran. The advance would be another step in achieving proficiency in the entire nuclear fuel cycle. Iran said in January that it had produced the first nuclear fuel rod, and that it had to find a way to make them because Western sanctions prohibit their purchase from foreign markets.

Israeli official downplays Iran nuclear deal with IAEA, citing past violations
By Barak Ravid and Jonathan Lis | May.22, 2012/Haaretz
IDF intelligence official says external pressure has not brought about change in Iran's nuclear policies. The announcement that International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) head Yukiya Amano had struck a deal with Iran Tuesday to inspect its nuclear facilities was received in Jerusalem with great suspicion. According to a top Israeli official, the government is very skeptical that Iran would adhere to any deal. "The Iranians are serial agreement violators," said the official. "We know from past experiences how all these agreements between the IAEA and Iran end. Iran continued to establish uranium enrichment facilities in Natanz under the nose of the international community. The IAEA's last report refers to the military intentions of Iran's nuclear program. North Korea has also reached agreements with the IAEA in the past, and this ended in two nuclear attempts." The official added that it is necessary to distinguish between the talks held by Amano in Tehran and the ones set to open on Wednesday in Baghdad between Iran and the P5+1 countries (United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany). "Amano's talks in Tehran dealt mostly with the issue of inspection over nuclear facilities," said the official. "This is not enough. The Iranian plan continues and needs to be stopped, which means an end to uranium enrichment." During a meeting of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday, Research Division at Military Intelligence Brig. Gen. Itai Baron stated that "Iran is asking to enter into extended talks with the international community…but the Iranians are continuing with their nuclear program in order to obtain enriched material through operating a site near Qom, as well as continuous activities in Busheir."
Baron added that the "sanctions and the internal situation in Iran are very bothersome to the regime and pushing it toward talks. The Iranian public, as opposed to the uprising of 2009, does not believe in its power to change the political reality through protests. The pressure put on Iran from the outside has not brought about a change in its nuclear policies."

By opposing deal Iran's, IAEA Israel may isolate itself more than Iran
By Amir Oren | May.22, 2012/Haaretz
When a liar says he won't lie anymore, is that a lie too? Iran, frustratingly, could turn out to be telling the truth.The deal reached over the last two days between International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Yukiya Amano and Iranian officials during talks in Tehran hasn't been published yet, and may have not been completed. And without seeing its content, without examining the smallest of letters and looking over the timetable, there's no real way to seriously discuss its details.
But the chain of events that brought Amano to go all the way to the Iranian capital and the timing, eve of P5+1 nuclear talks in Baghdad, do indicate that the will by both sides - Iran and the world (sans Israel) – to reach an agreement will overcome any remaining differences. The meeting of American and Iranian interests is leaving Israel on the sidelines, as a stick in the mud, and threatens to empty out its main talking point – that the Iranian nuclear program threatens the entire world.
The important point of the Amano-Jalili deal – named after chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili – is not this or that detail, but the very coming to fruition of a common goal. The deal, which is due to be followed by more public progress in the Baghdad talks, will serve as a momentous achievement for U.S. President Barack Obama and to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Each will have to give up little and get a lot in return. Both will be given a sort of relief from a sore sport, even if a more thorough treatment will be needed in the future.
Obama is interested in showing that sanctions work. When you fine Iran, it responds. When you threaten to strangle it, it softens. And the best part – a mix of diplomacy and economics is taking the place of force, and preventing the west from a military entanglement with no end in sight, something always to steer away from, and especially in an election year.
Khamenei, on the other hand, is eager to lift the sanctions noose, and is willing to pay a certain price, noting too big or too final. A delay of Iran's nuclear program, not its undoing. He too is willing to keep it together until after November's presidential and congressional vote. And since it was never his intention to directly disengage from IARA supervision, he's able, with little effort, to allow inspectors more access, for example, in the military installation in Parchin, in return to slacking sanctions and a probable freezing of a round of measures planned for July 1.
The focus, from now on, won't be this or that detail, but Iran's good faith and good will. The discussion will shift to the question of reliability: when a liar says won't lie anymore, is that a lie too? Or, wondrously, he has cut the habit and isn't trying to feed old wives' tales to the IAEA. At that point, it's better to distrust the Iranians. They may, frustratingly, turn out to be telling the truth this time.
Consequently, it's clear that the main effort by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak's government in the coming months will be watching for violations, a constant surveillance over anything having to do with Iran's nuclear program, in order to catch Jalili and his colleagues violating agreements. Its goal is to prove that Khamenei's regime cannot be trusted and to justify the military actions they are now prohibited from taking.
You can call it Aman's [Israeli Military Intelligence] push against Amano, with Israel's intelligence resources to be partially diverted from the most perilous of Iran's nuclear activities to those covered in the agreements reached this week, which aren’t necessarily as threatening, but that the exposure of which will gain propaganda points.
The deals with Iran, reached despite Netanyahu and Barak, won't seal the nuclear issue. Obama and other global leaders aren't naïve and don't want to be seen in a few months as suckers who were fooled by a false signature on a false piece of paper. However, unrest in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, to the tune of "War now," may isolate Israel instead of Iran.

Iranian youth publicly whipped for drinking alcohol
Dudi Cohen Published: 05.22.12/Ynetnews
Clip uploaded to YouTube by Iranian opposition shows young man flogged at city square . Iranian barbarity: A video clip recently uploaded to YouTube shows a young Iranian man being publicly whipped as punishment for drinking alcohol. The clip, uploaded by members of the Iranian opposition, shows a young many lying on his stomach in a city square and being whipped at least 20 times by a masked man. To the side stands another man, a cleric, who appears to be instructing the flogger on how to carry out the punishment. Dozens of locals are seen looking on.
The user who published the clip said that it was filmed last Sunday in the village of Miane in northwest Iran. Witnesses said the young man had been arrested for allegedly drinking alcohol.
Young man flogged in public (Video: YouTube)Consumption of alcohol is forbidden in the Islamic Republic, as is the import or sale of alcohol, although Jews and Christians are permitted to use wine for ritual purposes. From time to time, the police conduct raids to combat the smuggling of alcohol into Iran, mostly from other Gulf countries.
However, many young people remain undeterred by the ban on alcohol and continue to hold parties where it flows freely, apparently unconcerned that they could find themselves in the same situation as the young man in the video. Public flogging is a punishment given not only for drinking, but also for other violations of Sharia law. Last year, Iranian student Fayman Aaraf was flogged for insulting President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a letter he sent from prison. In Aaraf's case, he was not publicly whipped – although his wife and a number of legal officials from Tehran were present.

The Baghdad Nuclear Talks: Three Steps to Help Diplomacy Succeed
By: Michael Singh /The Washington Institute.
May 22, 2012
Although Washington may be tempted to take whatever progress it can get from this week's nuclear talks, the only agreement worth having is one that resolves Western concerns about Iran's nuclear activities while lessening the threat of military conflict.
Given that Wednesday's Iran nuclear talks in Baghdad are unlikely to produce a decisive outcome, a central challenge for U.S. and EU-3 (i.e., British, French, and German) negotiators will be to manage the tension between a slow-moving diplomatic process and the much faster progress of Iran's nuclear program and international sanctions, as well as possible Israeli military plans to stymie the program. For Washington, resolving that challenge means insisting on measures from Iran that bring its nuclear weapons progress to a full stop, allowing sanctions to continue expanding during the talks, and coordinating closely with regional allies regarding acceptable outcomes.
THREE SCENARIOS
The April 13-14 nuclear talks in Istanbul were reportedly characterized by a positive "atmosphere," but little if any discussion of substance. Neither the P5+1 (i.e., the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) nor Iran put forward proposals, and the only agreed outcome was to hold a second round of talks and, in the interim, "expert-level" consultations between Ali Bagheri, deputy to Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili, and Helga Schmid, deputy to EU foreign policy chief Baroness Catherine Ashton. Given the tentative nature of the Istanbul meeting and subsequent consultations, a breakthrough nuclear agreement, much less a "grand bargain" on all issues, is highly unlikely this week. Instead, three outcomes are strong possibilities:
Iranian intransigence. Although there have been mixed signals from Tehran regarding the regime's willingness to consider a nuclear compromise (see PolicyWatch 1939), even those Iranian officials who have discussed a compromise have publicly mentioned terms unlikely to be accepted by the P5+1 -- namely, a full lifting of Western sanctions in exchange for, at best, a partial freeze on nuclear activities. Iran may, as it did in October 2009, simply refuse to take the P5+1's "yes" for an answer and decline terms that Western analysts would deem generous. Although this may appear irrational, Tehran currently has strong incentives to keep the negotiating process alive if only to stave off more severe punitive action. Under such circumstances, Iran has previously demonstrated a great reluctance -- if not inability -- to change course on core policies. In a sense, the regime has proven to be its own worst enemy, alienating potential allies by refusing to engage in even a show of compromise or conciliation.
Indefinite negotiations. The Baghdad round, like the Istanbul talks, could simply prove inconclusive, resulting in further rounds of talks. As indicated above, this would fit with an Iranian strategy of maintaining the pretense of diplomatic cooperation in order to buy time and drain momentum from the international pressure campaign, while avoiding compromises or commitments. It would also comport with any belief in Tehran that upcoming U.S. and European elections will result in policy changes, or that the usual summer peak in oil demand will sap enthusiasm for further sanctions. Although a seemingly positive yet nonsubstantive outcome was hailed as a sign of progress in Istanbul, Washington and some of its allies would view such a result as a failure in Baghdad.
Interim agreement. The most substantive outcome that can be expected in Baghdad is an interim agreement of some kind. Generally speaking, such a deal could take three forms: (1) an agreement on "principles" for further negotiations that stops short of committing either side to specific steps; (2) a "work plan" to address the International Atomic Energy Agency's outstanding questions, without reference to the more difficult issues (i.e., the status of Iran's enrichment and reprocessing programs, nuclear facilities, and enriched uranium stockpiles); (3) most optimistically, the first phase of a multistep agreement to resolve the nuclear dispute that specifically addresses the three difficult issues just mentioned. Any such agreement raises the problems of compliance and follow-up -- Iran might purposefully misinterpret or fail to implement the terms of a deal, or the interim arrangement could effectively become a final deal without addressing Washington's core concerns.
Given that even the most optimistic of these scenarios offers merely incremental progress toward a nuclear resolution, the Obama administration will face a thorny challenge post-Baghdad. The implementation of any agreement, much less any follow-up agreements, will likely be long in unfolding, especially given Tehran's penchant for delay. In the meantime, the nuclear program will presumably continue to expand until an agreement is reached, and even then parts of it may be left unfettered. At the same time, additional U.S. and EU sanctions already on the books will take effect at the end of June, and Congress is likely to expand them absent a breakthrough. More seriously, Israel is reportedly contemplating military action in the near term and is unlikely to find any of the above outcomes satisfactory.
HOW TO SYNCHRONIZE THE CLOCKS
To buy time for diplomacy to succeed, the Obama administration must take steps that, paradoxically, make diplomacy more difficult. Nevertheless, the only agreement worth having is one that resolves Western concerns regarding Iran's nuclear activities and lessens the threat of military conflict. A deal that leaves Tehran with a significant residual nuclear weapons capability or fails to address the concerns leading Israel to consider a military strike may be easier to achieve, but would have little value.
First, any interim agreement should require Iran to fully halt its progress toward nuclear weapons; this will ensure that subsequent negotiations do not simply serve as cover for further advancement along that line. This means insisting that Iran comply with all of the relevant resolutions adopted at the UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors by fully suspending its enrichment and reprocessing activities and fully cooperating with IAEA inspectors, as well as that it take additional steps such as dismantling the Fordow site and yielding its enriched uranium stockpiles.
Some analysts have suggested that these steps are unrealistic. Yet the P5+1 are willing to provide fuel for Iran's research reactor, and Russia already provides fuel for the Bushehr power reactor, so there is no reason for Iran to have a uranium enrichment program. The only barrier to fully suspending that program is Tehran's objection, which is precisely what Western diplomacy and sanctions are designed to overcome. Of course, it may take longer to convince the regime to make these concessions than it would to secure agreement on more modest nuclear limitations. To sharpen and accelerate Iran's choice, the Obama administration should make clearer that the alternative may be U.S. or Israeli military action. It should also cease making statements that appear to oppose to undermine that threat.
Second, until a satisfactory and irreversible halt to Iran's nuclear program is achieved, the Obama administration should not object to full implementation and even expansion of sanctions by the EU and Congress -- in fact, it should support such actions. This would help Tehran understand that only a mutually agreed resolution, and not the diplomatic process itself, will bring relief from pressure.
Third, Washington should consult closely and frequently with Israel, Gulf states, and other concerned allies in advance of negotiations. Given that the United States could be drawn into a regional war with Iran regardless of an agreement between Tehran and the P5+1, it is important that any such agreement also satisfy these allies' concerns. It is particularly important that Washington and Israel agree in advance on what constitutes an acceptable agreement with Iran. Advance coordination will also increase the likelihood that allies express support for the U.S. strategy before and after talks, which was pointedly not the case after the Istanbul round, when Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu characterized the talks as a "freebie" for Iran, prompting a public rebuke from President Obama. Such public displays of division among allies can only prove heartening to the Iranian regime, which has endeavored in the past to sow disputes among the P5+1.
*Michael Singh is managing director of The Washington Institute.

Japan breaks oil embargo against Iran before Baghdad talks end
DEBKAfile Special Report May 23, 2012/ A senior official in Tokyo announced Wednesday, May 23, that the Japanese government will seek parliamentary approval for a bill allowing Japanese firms to insure tankers carrying Iranian oil to Asia if European insurers refused to do so. The new law would apply to 16 Iranian tankers in the first stage.
This decision means that any intention to stiffen the oil embargo against Iran, as Israel had expected, was virtually voided even before the resumed nuclear talks ended between the six powers and Iran in Baghdad. Instead of taking place under the shadow of tougher sanctions, the oil embargo had begun falling apart and a major disincentive for Iran to continue its drive for a nuclear bomb was fading.
Still, without any real grounds, European coordinator Catherine Ashton and IAEA head Yukiya Amano were openly optimistic about the outcome of the current round of talks. In this, they backed US President Barack Obama’s expectation of successful negotiations with Iran and his advocacy of continuing diplomacy in contrast to his earlier remarks this month that the window for negotiations was closing.
By spreading good cheer, Ashton and Amano obscured the real state of play with Iran. Amano said Tuesday that a deal for inspections would soon be signed with Iran although he didn’t know when. Now it appears that there was no deal.
And all Ashton’s spokesman would say was, "I am not going to go into the details of what we are proposing, but of course we are putting proposals on the table that are of interest to Iran."
Israeli ministers who urged the world powers to make tough demands of Iran and impose stiff penalties were clearly talking through their hats. Japan is not alone in helping Iran beat the toughest sanction, the embargo on its oil exports, India and Turkey were in there first. They were all essentially signaling Tehran that its inflexibility in negotiations would not rate serious punishment because some of the threatened sanctions are no longer workable.
No comment was forthcoming from US official sources on the developments around the Baghdad talks Wednesday. Other American sources close to the Obama administration, such as Dennis Ross, the president’s former adviser on Iran, warned Tuesday, May 22, on the eve of the resumed talks not to expect any breakthrough or dramatic progress. R
oss stressed that Tehran would get no sanctions relief until uranium enrichment is discontinued – and not only the 20-percent grade but lower levels too.
Russia and the UK, alone of the powers (the others are the US, France, Germany, China) represented in Baghdad, spoke openly about the possible failure of the meeting and the outbreak of war with Iran in consequence.
The Russians again warned Tehran that the West is using the screen of negotiations for a conspiracy to set a military trap. In London, just before the talks began, British ministers were warned of their likely breakdown and were reported to have prepared “contingency plans” for a possible conflict between Israel and Iran.
Some sources reported that under discussion was British military and diplomatic aid to Israel, in particular the deployment of Royal Navy vessels on Israel’s coast.