LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 24/2012

Bible Quotation for today/The Word of Life/God Is Light
01 John 01/ 10-10: "We write to you about the Word of life, which has existed from the very beginning. We have heard it, and we have seen it with our eyes; yes, we have seen it, and our hands have touched it. When this life became visible, we saw it; so we speak of it and tell you about the eternal life which was with the Father and was made known to us. What we have seen and heard we announce to you also, so that you will join with us in the fellowship that we have with the Father and with his Son Jesus Christ. We write this in order that our joy may be complete. Now the message that we have heard from his Son and announce is this: God is light, and there is no darkness at all in him. If, then, we say that we have fellowship with him, yet at the same time live in the darkness, we are lying both in our words and in our actions. But if we live in the light—just as he is in the light—then we have fellowship with one another, and the blood of Jesus, his Son, purifies us from every sin. If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and there is no truth in us. But if we confess our sins to God, he will keep his promise and do what is right: he will forgive us our sins and purify us from all our wrongdoing. If we say that we have not sinned, we make a liar out of God, and his word is not in us.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Party of Fraud: Hizballah's Criminal Enterprises/Featuring Michael Braun, David Asher, and Matthew Levitt/March 23/12
Click Here and Listen to the reality of Hezbollah
Voting for the prodigal son/Michael Young/March 23/12
Syria: the opposition needs unity but not uniformity/By Amir Taheri/March 23/12
From Stalin to Bashar: Messages of love and hate/By Adel Al Toraifi/March 23/12

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for March 23/12
Tehran forces Iranian Jews to join anti-Israel Global March
Syria's Assad in firm control after a bloody year
Kurd militants threaten Turkey if it enters Syria
Armistice pleas fall on deaf ears in Syria
Syria's Assad in firm control after a bloody year
Assad's wife faces EU travel ban: diplomats  
Annan Urged to Avoid Arab League Pitfalls in Syria as he Plans to Go to Moscow, Beijing
EU Slaps Travel Ban on Assad's British-Born Wife
Kremlin Warns West against Bypassing U.N. on Syria
UN rights council orders extension of Syria probe
Syrian tanks bombard Hama; casualties reported
Clashes reported near Damascus, as Syrian opposition calls for anti-Assad protests
Clinton to let military aid to Egypt continue: State Department official
Saudi to fill in for any Iran disruption - IEA
Spiritual summit to ponder ways to bolster unity
Anti-Assad protest held in Lebanon’s Tripoli
Molotov cocktail thrown in Dbayeh
Calm returns to Lebanese border towns after Syrian gunfire
EU slaps sanctions on Assad's family; mortars hit Homs
Kidnapped Lebanese in Nigeria released
Video footage shows Ain al-Hilweh suspect’s face: Lino
Charbel seeks to assuage fears of Syria crisis spillover
HRW to Lebanon: Stop abuse of domestic workers
Lebanon border town hit by Syrian gunfire for second night
Charbel: Women in the ISF are not allowed to wear the hijab
Hezbollah seeks stable govt. for 2013 elections: MP
Buried mystery box unearthed near Beirut wedding hall
Molotov cocktail explodes in ABC mall parking, no injuries
UNHCR Calls for Funds to Help Syrian Refugees
Hijab-wearing Policewomen Cause Stir in Lebanon


PolicyWatch #1911: Special Forum Report
Party of Fraud: Hizballah's Criminal Enterprises Featuring Michael Braun, David Asher, and Matthew Levitt
March 22, 2012
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3461
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/audio/audio_popup.php?id=3461&table=tblPeacePolicyWatch  Click Here and Listen
On March 19, 2012, Michael Braun, David Asher, and Matthew Levitt addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Mr. Braun, a managing partner with Spectre Group International, is former assistant administrator and chief of operations at the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. Dr. Asher, a senior fellow at Center for a New American Security, specializes on countering illicit financial networks and transnational threats. Dr. Levitt, director of The Washington Institute's Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, is the author of the forthcoming book Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon's Party of God. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
MICHAEL BRAUN
Given the growing confluence of drugs and terror, Washington needs to be more focused on Hizballah's illicit activities, particularly in the Western Hemisphere. A long-established relationship with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Qods Force provides Hizballah, Iran's trusted proxy group, opportunities to build operational capacity in the global illicit drug trade.
Hizballah entered the global narcotics trade approximately seven years ago by acquiring relatively small amounts of cocaine in 15kg-20kg quantities. Trafficking the drugs from the Tri-Border Area (Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina), across the Atlantic, and into locations like Europe, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates , this initial investment produced hefty profits almost overnight. Today, Hizballah is moving tons of cocaine into West Africa, onward to North Africa, and eventually into European markets.
For decades, Hizballah has been a master at identifying and exploiting existing smuggling and organized crime infrastructure. Conservatively, the DEA has linked at least half of the U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organizations to the global drug trade. Hizballah's illicit activity is directly linked to the group's ability to build contacts and relationships globally.
In permissive environments, Hizballah operatives are developing close personal relationships with individuals from organized crime groups. Formidable interorganizational relationships evolve from these personal relationships as young operatives dispatched to places like the Tri-Border Area ascend the ranks within their organization. DEA agents routinely report links between Hizballah and other terrorist and organized crime groups throughout South America, West Africa, and Europe.
Going forward, Washington should focus on three key strategies to disrupt the growing nexus between drugs and terror. First, the development of interlocking counternarcotics and counterterrorism strategies with singular funding streams can limit the usual stovepiping that stifles cooperation between agencies. Second, because U.S. law enforcement presence in South America has decreased since 9/11, Washington needs to put greater emphasis on "defense in depth" -- i.e., expanding U.S. activity in the region. Finally, a relentless focus on traditional threats such as drugs, arms, and human trafficking, along with their associated money laundering, will expose terrorist operatives to law enforcement.
DAVID ASHER
Hizballah has long exploited the Lebanese banking system to bolster the group's coffers. The startling growth of Lebanon's banks illustrates the degree of Hizballah's money-laundering activity in the wake of Hizballah's 2006 war with Israel. Banking data suggests the Lebanese banking system essentially doubled between 2006 and 2011, the result of a massive surge in dollar-dominated deposits from non-residents and members of the Lebanese diaspora. Foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves of the Central Bank of Lebanon tell a similarly story -- during the war the funds skyrocketed. The miraculous growth experienced by the Lebanese banking system during costly reconstruction efforts is suspicious at best.
The fastest growing bank in Lebanon over the last decade has been the Lebanese Canadian Bank -- the bank most centrally involved in Hizballah's finances. It provided services and loans to Hizballah entities and received large deposits without reporting their source to the central bank. Hizballah has encroached on every part of Lebanon's economy from its banking system to real estate and construction; however, they also seem to embrace illicit finance as a main source of revenue. Indeed, these illicit networks connect back to Hizballah's coffers through Hussain al-Shami, a senior leader in charge of foreign donations to Hizballah's fundraising organizations.
In December 2011, a $483 million asset forfeiture claim filed in the Southern District of New York exposed a massive money-laundering scheme through Hizballah fronts in Lebanon, including the Lebanese Canadian Bank and two Beirut-based money exchange houses. The Lebanese financial institutions assisted in a scheme to integrate hundreds of millions of dollars from narcotic sales with the proceeds of used cars bought in the United States and sold in Africa. Over the last five years, large sums of bulk cash, often escorted by Hizballah security guards, have been shipped from Africa to Lebanon; in 2007 alone, some $1.2 billion declared at the Togo-Ghana border made its way into Lebanese banks. The Lebanese Canadian Bank and affiliated exchange houses laundered and eventually piped the funds back into the U.S. and European banking systems.
Hizballah's money-laundering activities and infiltration of the banking system constitute a principal risk to Lebanon's financial security. For instance, the U.S. Treasury designation of the Lebanese Canadian Bank triggered a run on funds in the banking system, while Iran and Syria continue to use Beirut to skirt sanctions and thus expose the entire Lebanese banking system to severe sanctions. The choice facing the Beirut is clear: maintain Lebanon's government or maintain Hizballah.
Going forward, the United States needs a decisive pressure option to curtail the influence of Hizballah and Iran in Lebanon without resorting to military force. Washington should consider creating an Iran-Hizballah Illicit Activities initiative -- similar to the initiative applied against Kim Jong-il's regime and the strategy that proved effective against Milosevic in the mid-1990s.
MATTHEW LEVITT
While Hizballah has long engaged in criminal activity, the scope and scale of that activity has expanded significantly over time, providing law enforcement opportunity to undermine the group's capabilities. Consider last December, when federal prosecutors accused three Hizballah-linked financial institutions with laundering more than $480 million from narcotics trafficking and other criminal activities. Hizballah operative Ayman Joumma, who had operations in Colombia, Lebanon, Panama ,and West Africa, laundered as much as $200 million a month in cocaine sales in Europe and the Middle East for the scheme.
Over several years Hizballah has been uniquely positioned to draw from a vast continuum of worldwide supporters and operatives. At one end is a small group of Hizballah-trained operatives and at the other a much larger pool of sympathizers who provide funds for the group.
From weapons procurement of shoulder-fire missiles to stolen laptops, passports, and PlayStation 2s, material support cases in 2009 indicate the scope and scale of Hizballah's rising criminal activity. In one case a Hizballah operative attempted to sell counterfeit money to a government witness. The counterfeit bills, however, proved to be genuine, revealing a Hizballah scheme to sell money stolen from the Middle East. In yet another instance, Dani Nemr Tarraf, charged with spearheading a plot to obtain military-grade weapons for Hizballah, told conspirators that weapons could be easily shipped through the port of Latakia into Syria and Iran because Hizballah controlled the port and secrecy was guaranteed.
Criminal activities expose Hizballah to unprecedented scrutiny from U.S. law enforcement, offering new opportunities to target the group. Although many countries are reluctant to cooperate with the U.S. counterterrorism efforts for fear of admitting that terrorists operate on their soil, they are less hesitant to cooperate on criminal law enforcement. It is often easier to pursue and apprehend suspects as criminals than as terrorists.
This has been evident in U.S. efforts to counter Hizballah activity in the Tri-Border Area. It is no surprise that Buenos Aires, Brasilia, and Asuncion issued a joint statement rejecting U.S. claims of terrorist activity in the region. Yet, "the governments [of the Tri-Border Area] have long been concerned with arms and drugs smuggling, document fraud, money laundering, and the manufacture and movement of contraband goods through this region," according to a 2007 U.S. State Department assessment. These countries are more willing to cooperate with the United States if it frames its efforts as anticrime and antidrug rather than as counterterrorism. Enforcing domestic laws to hold terrorists accountable for their criminal activity allows countries to avoid the messy politics that counterterrorism activities might imply.
Q&A SESSION
This rapporteur's summary was prepared by Divah Alshawa.

Kidnapped Lebanese in Nigeria released
March 23, 2012/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: The director general of the Department of Immigrants at the Foreign Affairs Ministry Haitham Jomaa announced Friday the Lebanese businessman who was kidnapped Wednesday in Nigeria has been released. Jomaa identified the Lebanese expatriate as Elias Sarkis and said the motive behind the kidnapping was related to family conflicts rather than part of organized crime. He also said that Lebanon’s Consul to Nigeria Shawqi Abu Naser had informed him of the release and that Sarkis was in good condition.

Molotov Cocktail Attack in ABC Parking Lot in Dbayeh
by Naharnet/ 23 March 2012,
A Molotov cocktail exploded on Friday in the parking lot of ABC mall in Dbayeh, north of Beirut, creating a small crater but causing no major damage, the National News Agency reported. NNA said the petrol bomb exploded at 9:45 am.A military expert, who inspected the scene, said the bomb caused a 10-centimeter-deep and a five-centimeter-wide crater, the agency added. Security forces inspected security cameras installed in the area to identify the assailants. But ABC’s management announced in a press release that “there has been no explosion in the parking lot of Dbayeh mall as stated this morning in the press.” “The explosion happened in the morning hours on a side road away from the mall that was not affected,” it said.“ABC Dbayeh mall opened at 10:00 am and is currently resuming normal activity,” the statement added.

Tehran forces Iranian Jews to join anti-Israel Global March
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 23, 2012/ The Islamic regime in Tehran was not satisfied with the public support the Iranian Jewish community’s was forced to confer on the Global March to Jerusalem for which Iran is recruiting Islamists worldwide. Now, the event’s organizers, Majlis Speaker Hossein Sheikh-ol-Eslam and Salim Ghafouri, have ordered the community to send a Jewish delegation to march with the Islamist groups in Lebanon, debkafile’s Iranian sources disclose.
The delegations are scheduled to mass on the Lebanese and Jordanian borders with Israel and at West Bank and Gaza checkpoints on March 30, when Israeli Arabs mark Earth Day every year.
Iran’s ancient Jewish community of around 15,000 souls (9,000 in Tehran, 4,000 in Shiraz and 1,300 in Isfahan) has been living in fear of reprisals should Israel or the United States carry out a military operation against the country’s nuclear facilities. Now, they face a fresh danger of murder and abduction by Hizballah and Palestinian gunmen and terrorists in Lebanon.
Jewish communal leaders were instructed by the Iranian authorities this week to have at least 10 young men aged 18 to 22 ready for the march. They were to be given “the honor” of acting as vanguard for breaking through the Lebanese-Israeli border fence and leading a mass incursion across the border.
They suspect that this ploy is meant to prevent Israeli soldiers from firing on the trespassers for fear of killing the Jewish contingent, while at the same time, exposing them to violence when the event is over at the hands of al-Qaeda linked Palestinian groups under Hizballah protection.
The Salafi doctrine held by the al Qaeda killer Muhammad Merah who murdered four Jews, including three children, in Toulouse Monday, is rife in the south Lebanese Palestinian Ain Hilwa refugee camp. The most active are two Palestinian jihadist groups, the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, which now and then shoots rockets into northern Israel, and Jund al-Sham, which is closely tied to al Qaeda branches in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, where they call themselves Osbat al-Ansar.
The two terrorist groups are the bosses of the Safouri Quarter of the camp.
Our sources report an Iranian scheme to send the Jewish marchers on a visit to Ain Hilwa to show their solidarity with the most radical Palestinian cause.
Last week, Jewish leaders were obliged to sign a declaration of solidarity with the Global March and condemnation of Israel. The text put before them for signing was as follows: We the Jews of Iran strongly condemn the barbaric crimes of the occupation regime in Palestinian and declare the Zionist state in violation of the principles of Our Teacher Moses and the Will of God. We are totally at one with the aspirations of the heroic Palestinian people.”
Signed: Dr. Syamak Mare Dedeq, Jewish Member of Parliament, and Rabbi Mashallah Golestani-Nejad, described as the Chief Rabbi of Iran.
debkafile’s Iranian sources add: Tehran is the main bankroller and live wire of the Global March against Israel’s borders and claims to have rounded up Islamist delegations from five continents to support the Palestinians. Seventy sympathizers are on their way to Lebanon, Syria and Jordan from India, Malaysia, Pakistan and other Asian countries.
To mark the event, Tehran staged a cartoon contest. The winner drew around the Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem a wall modeled on the fences of Auschwitz.
Both the organizers are members of the Ministry of Intelligence MOIS with long experience of managing Iranian activities on behalf of Arab and Palestinian terrorist groups. Sheikh-ol-Islam, while holding the post of Deputy Speaker of Parliament, also coordinates Tehran’s relations with the Lebanese Hizballah.
On Feb. 26, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei proclaimed the launching of the Global March to Jerusalem an expression of Iran’s policy for strengthening “resistance operations” against Israel and guarding Palestinian interests.

HRW to Lebanon: Stop abuse of domestic workers
March 23, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Human Rights Watch urged Lebanon Friday to swiftly reform laws governing the country's domestic workers in a bid to limit cases of abuse, and asked the government to announce the result of the probe into the abuse and subsequent suicide of an Ethiopian housemaid. “Lebanese authorities should act quickly to reform restrictive visa regulations and adopt a labor law on domestic work to address high levels of abuse and deaths among migrant domestic workers,” HRW along with seven civil society groups said in a statement.
They also asked the government, which announced it would open an investigation into the beating and suicide of Ethiopian domestic worker Alem Dechasa-Desisa, to reveal the outcome of the probe.
In a video released by LBCI last week, Dechasa-Desisa, 33, was seen moaning as a man, later identified as Ali Mahfouz, aided by another man, beat and forced her into a car outside the Ethiopian consulate.
Two days later she committed suicide at the Psychiatrique de la Croix Hospital. The incident outside the consulate drew wide condemnation of the government's inaction by civil rights groups, who also cited a culture of impunity when it comes to the abuse of domestic workers in Lebanon. The eight groups that signed the statement issued by HRW are Human Rights Watch, Caritas Lebanon Migrant Center, KAFA (Enough) Violence & Exploitation, Anti Racism Movement, Amel Association International, Insan, Danish Refugee Council, and Nasawiya.
The statement said that in a 2008 report, HRW found that there had been an average of one death a week from unnatural causes among domestic workers in Lebanon, including suicide and falls from tall buildings. It also cited information prepared by KAFA Violence & Exploitation, a Lebanese women’s rights group, about nine deaths in August 2010.
The statement also said that 200,000 domestic workers are employed in Lebanon, adding that they are primarily from Sri Lanka, Ethiopia, the Philippines, and Nepal but that they are excluded from the country’s labor law. “[Domestic workers are] subject to restrictive immigration rules based on employer-specific sponsorship that puts workers at risk of exploitation and makes it difficult for them to leave abusive employers,” it said. Countries such as the Philippines and Ethiopia have banned their citizens from working in Lebanon due to the lack of protection of domestic workers. Yet Filipino and Ethiopian nationals continue to come to Lebanon for work.
In Early February, Lebanon signed a memorandum of understanding with the Philippines to implement regulations governing the recruitment and working practices of Filipino domestic workers in a bid to lift the current ban. HRW said that “the most common complaints documented by the embassies of labor-sending countries and civil society groups include mistreatment by recruiters, non-payment or delayed payment of wages, forced confinement to the workplace, a refusal to provide any time off for the worker, forced labor, and verbal and physical abuse.”
The organization also condemned a 2009 compulsory standard employment contract as lacking proper protection and said it was only available in Arabic so far.
“Lebanon voted in favor of the International Labor Organization’s (ILO) Convention No. 189 on Decent Work for Domestic Workers, adopted in June 2011, but has yet to take steps to ratify the treaty or bring itself in compliance,” HRW said, adding that the convention was aimed at offering domestic workers labor protection and monitoring recruitment agencies.
There are thought to be several hundred thousand foreign migrant workers in Lebanon, including around 200,000 domestic workers.


Video footage shows Ain al-Hilweh suspect’s face: Lino
March 23, 2012/Daily Star
BEIRUT: The person suspected of planting a 30-kilogram bomb in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp near Sidon earlier this week was caught on camera, a senior Fatah official said Friday.
Brig. Gen. Mahmoud Issa, the head of the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Armed Struggle force in Lebanon, said surveillance cameras installed in the vicinity of the attempted bombing site in Ain al-Hilweh depict two suspects wearing wool caps. “But cameras provide a clear view of the face of the person who actually planted the bomb,” Issa, also known as Lino, told The Daily Star by telephone.
A bomb estimated to contain 30 kilograms of TNT and set to explode by remote control was found Wednesday near Lino’s home. Lino said that while the identity of the suspects has been revealed, he would not disclose their names so as not to compromise the investigation. "Technicians are still examining video images because the bomb was planted in the dark,” Lino said.
“We need some time before technicians can give us a clear picture,” he continued, adding that the video would later be screened in the camp so that its inhabitants could see the perpetrators for themselves.
Lino, who had said earlier that the bomb was big enough to blow up the whole neighborhood, pledged to hand over the suspects to Lebanese authorities after they have been arrested and interrogated by local camp officials. The explosive device, which was concealed in a paint bucket, was set to explode at 2p.m. during the midday rush hour.
Col. Qotaiba, commander of the Palestinian Armed Struggle force in Sidon's Ain al-Hilweh and Mieh Mieh refugee camps, said three mortar shells were found inside the bomb, which was attached to two cellphone detonators.

Armistice pleas fall on deaf ears in Syria
 March 23, 2012/
DAMASCUS/BEIRUT: Fierce clashes killed over 62 people across Syria Thursday, opposition activists said, as a U.N. Security Council call for an immediate end to the fighting appeared to go unheard.
In the worst incident 10 civilians, including three children and two women, died when their small bus was shot up in the northern town of Sermeen as they tried to flee to Turkey, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
The army attacked a string of towns, while rebel fighters struck military posts in several provinces and announced a command structure to coordinate hit-and-run strikes in and around Damascus.
The escalation came hours after the Security Council adopted a statement urging President Bashar Assad and the opposition to implement “fully and immediately” international envoy Kofi Annan’s peace plan.
The Syrian National Council, the main opposition group, dismissed the U.N. statement, saying it offered “the regime the opportunity to push ahead with its repression in order to crush the revolt by the Syrian people.”Samir Nashar, an SNC executive committee member, told AFP by telephone from Istanbul: “It’s time for the U.N. Security Council to use its powers to stop these massacres.”
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said the international community had to go further and develop “a joint plan of action.”
“We continue to think that Syria is playing for time ... In order for this human tragedy to end we must act together,” he told reporters in Vienna. “Just making calls is not enough.”
He also said he did not think “that this regime, with these characteristics, can survive. It is against the logic and history and the flow of history ... A regime fighting against its own people, trying to keep the status quo, cannot survive.”
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said last week that setting up a “safe zone” or a “buffer zone” along the border with Syria to protect civilians from Assad’s forces was among the options being considered, should the stream of refugees entering Turkey turn into a flood.
However, Turkish Kurd militants threatened Thursday to turn all Kurdish populated areas into a “war zone” if Turkish troops entered Syria, a sign the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which has allies in Syria may be taking sides in the conflict there.
PKK field commander Murat Karayilan said Turkey was preparing the ground for an intervention in Syria. “The Turkish state is planning an intervention against our people,” the Europe-based Firat news agency, close to the militants, quoted him as saying. “Let me state clearly, if the Turkish state intervenes against our people in western Kurdistan, all of Kurdistan will turn into a war zone,” he said.
A renewed alliance between Damascus and the PKK would anger Turkey and could prompt it to take an even stronger line against Assad over his repression of anti-government protesters.
Along the Turkish border Thursday, a busload of Syrian civilians including women and children attempting to flee from Syria to Turkey was shot up in close to the town of Sermeen, in the northwestern province of Idlib.
Overall 62 people were killed across the country Thursday, including 35 civilians, the Observatory said, adding that 18 soldiers and nine army deserters also died in fierce clashes. Reports could not be confirmed due to restrictions on the movements of foreign media.
Meanwhile, a day after the Security Council statement was passed, the European Union was set to slap a travel ban and assets freeze on Assad’s British-born wife Asma and other members of his family, diplomats said in Brussels. Annan’s plan calls for Assad to pull troops and heavy weapons out of protest cities, a daily 2-hour humanitarian pause to hostilities, access to all areas affected by the fighting and a U.N.-supervised halt to all clashes. Monitors say more than 9,100 people have been killed in an uprising against Assad that started with peaceful protests before turning into an increasingly armed revolt, faced with a brutal crackdown costing dozens of lives each day.
In Damascus, state news agency SANA reported a joint prayer session, led by the Patriarch Gregorios III Laham for Antioch and All The East was held Wednesday for those killed in two “terrorist” bombings in Damascus last Saturday.
SANA said Laham urged an end to the “cycle of violence” and called on Syrians to resort to “dialogue, reconciliation, repentance and calm to preserve unity,” in a speech delivered at the Kyrillos Church in the Al-Qassa neighborhood. SANA reported Laham as stressing the role of Christians in Syria and the region.
On the rebel side, the Free Syrian Army announced that it has set up a military council to coordinate hit-and-run strikes around the capital, so far largely spared the worst violence.
The official media in Damascus played up the lack of any threat or ultimatum in the non-binding Security Council statement aimed at bolstering former U.N. chief Annan’s mission.
After intense negotiations between major U.N. powers, Russia and China signed up to the Western-drafted text which calls on Assad to work toward a cessation of hostilities and a democratic transition.
Russia and China have vetoed two Security Council resolutions on Syria, arguing they were unbalanced and aimed at regime change.
The Security Council awaited a formal response from Syria to its peace call.
With a veiled warning of future action, the Security Council called on Assad and the opposition to work “towards a peaceful settlement of the Syrian crisis and to implement fully and immediately [Annan’s] initial six-point proposal.”
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton praised the U.N. statement and warned Assad to carry out the peace plan or “face increasing pressure and isolation.”
European countries still want to press for a full, binding Security Council resolution on the crisis, with French envoy Gerard Araud calling the statement “a small step by the Security Council in the right direction.” Meanwhile, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said Clinton will attend the next “Friends of Syria” talks in Istanbul on April 1.
Nuland said the meeting will build on previous efforts to end the violence, enabling the delivery of humanitarian aid and launching a political process aimed at replacing Assad.
In other developments, Iran stressed its opposition to any foreign intervention in Syria and called for a political solution to the conflict there.
Iran “once again reiterates its emphasis on solving the current Syrian situation via political means and refraining from any hasty move and intervention,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said, according to the website of state television network IRIB. – Reuters, AFP, with The Daily Star

Calm returns to Lebanese border towns after Syrian gunfire
March 23, 2012/The Daily Star
BEKAA/TRIPOLI, Lebanon: Calm returned to the Lebanese border towns in the north and the Bekaa Thursday a day after Syrians fired machine guns and a mortar salvo.
Security sources in east Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley said Syrians fired seven mortar shells Wednesday night into al-Joura in Masharih al-Qaa in the northern Bekaa near the border with Syria, but they all fell in uninhabited areas.
No casualties were reported as a result of Syrian gunfire that hit several homes in Al-Joura and nearby Al-Dawra, the sources said.
In north Lebanon, security sources said three of four percussion bombs tossed from the Syrian side of the border before midnight Wednesday landed near civilian homes in the northern village of Buqaya in the Wadi Khaled area near the border with Syria, causing no casualties or material damage.
The sources, speaking to The Daily Star on condition of anonymity, said the shooting appeared to be a response to attempts to infiltrate across the border.
They said the gunfire, which had lasted about four hours, stopped shortly after midnight.
Separately, about 40 Syrian families have fled violence in the Syrian city of Quseir near Homs to Lebanese territory. Thirty families took shelter in Masharih al-Qaa and the rest in the village of Arsal.
There are now around 12,000 Syrian refugees in Lebanon, according to the U.N. refugee agency in its latest weekly report.
While only 7,088 refugees are registered in the north of Lebanon – with the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees and Lebanon’s Higher Relief Council – the report also acknowledges that there are around 4,000 unregistered refugees in the Bekaa Valley, and “approximately 1,000 more receiving assistance from the UNHCR and partners in other parts of Lebanon,” including south of Beirut.
Meanwhile, Interior Minister Marwan Charbel chaired a meeting Thursday of a committee formed to control the tense Lebanese-Syrian border following recent security incidents and Syrian gunfire on Lebanese territory.
The participants reviewed field developments on the ground border between Lebanon and Syria and discussed some logistical matters related to security forces deployed on the Lebanese border, including implementation of their mission, the state-run National News Agency reported.
They also discussed a comprehensive strategy to control the border from the “logistical, developmental and economic aspects and the amendments proposed by security agencies,” the NNA said. It added that agreement had been reached to hold other sessions in order to finalize a final draft of this strategy before submitting it to the Cabinet.
Thursday’s meeting was attended by senior security officials, including Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi, director general of the Internal Security Forces, and Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim, head of General Security.
The meeting came amid repeated calls by March 14 parties for the deployment of the Lebanese Army on the frontier to prevent what they said were repeated Syrian border violations. It also came amid repeated demands by the Syrian ambassador to Lebanon, Ali Abdel-Karim Ali, to the Lebanese government to tighten security and prevent arms-smuggling across the border with Syria.

Spiritual summit to ponder ways to bolster unity
March 23, 2012/By Hussein Dakroub The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Top Muslim and Christian religious leaders will hold a spiritual summit Sunday to discuss how to bolster national unity and sectarian coexistence as Lebanon faces threats to its stability from the repercussions of popular upheavals roiling the Arab world, sources said Thursday.
The meeting will be hosted by the Maronite Patriarchate in Bkirki and chaired by Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai.
Sunday’s meeting will be the third Muslim-Christian spiritual summit to be held since Rai was elected head of the Maronite Church a year ago.
Sources in Bkirki said the summit will tackle ways to protect Lebanon from the reverberations of the popular uprisings in the region through dialogue between the country’s feuding parties, whose political differences have been sharpened by the yearlong turmoil in Syria.
Last year, Christian and Muslim spiritual leaders met twice, in Bkirki and at Dar al-Fatwa, the seat of the Sunni mufti, with the aim of defusing political and sectarian tension in Lebanon as a result of the widening rift between the Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance and the opposition March 14 coalition.
The two camps are sharply split over the crisis in Syria. While the March 14 parties, led by the Future Movement, staunchly support the uprising against Syrian President Bashar Assad, Hezbollah and its allies are siding with the Assad regime.
In the meantime, sources at Dar al-Fatwa confirmed that all religious heads of the various Muslim and Christian communities would attend the Bkirki meeting.
The convening of the spiritual summit coincides with the Feast of Annunciation, which has been declared by the government as an official holiday.
The summit will be preceded by a Mass to be celebrated by Rai after which spiritual leaders of various sects will begin arriving in Bkirki. The summit is scheduled to convene at 12:30 p.m. and will be followed by a luncheon to be hosted by Rai for the participants.
Sources told The Daily Star that the National Muslim-Christian Dialogue Committee is preparing a communique to be issued at the end of the summit after winning the approval of the religious heads of Muslim and Christian communities.
The communique will highlight boosting national unity and sectarian coexistence in order to confront challenges that Lebanon and the region are facing, in addition to underlining the need for dialogue and consensus among the rival political parties in Lebanon, the sources said.
However, the communique will not touch on contentious issues in Lebanon and the Arab world such as Hezbollah’s arms and the yearlong popular uprising in Syria, the sources added.
Rai has just concluded a pastoral tour that has taken him to Jordan, Qatar and Egypt. He said Wednesday upon his return from Egypt that he still planned to make a pastoral visit to Syria “when things calm down.”
The spiritual summit comes as Rai is currently at the center of a heated controversy in Christian areas over his stances on the uprising in Syria. Last year, Rai’s controversial statements on the unrest in Syria and Hezbollah’s arms caused a new rift within the Maronite community, a rift which has not yet been healed.
Last week, Rai criticized Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea’s comments on his stances on Syria, saying Geagea had failed to read the statements in their entirety.
In response to a question about Geagea’s criticism of his statements, Rai said: “Those who read the statement ‘There is no god but God’ as simply ‘There is no god’ are ignorant.”
Geagea had lambasted Rai’s stance on the uprising in Syria, accusing the patriarch of defending the Syrian regime and endangering Christians in the region.
Geagea’s broadside came after Rai warned that violence and bloodshed are turning the Arab Spring into winter and that this was threatening Christians and Muslims alike across the Middle East.
President Michel Sleiman and Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun entered the fray, defending Rai. Sleiman said Rai was striving to preserve the presence of free Christians in the Levant, amid popular upheavals in the Arab world.
Previous statements by Rai on Syria have also stirred controversy among Christians. – With additional reporting by Nafez Qawas

Syria: the opposition needs unity but not uniformity
By Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat
At a dinner the other evening, I found myself drawn into a debate about Syria. My argument was that I did not expect regime change in Syria to produce anything worse than Bashar al-Assad.
Arguing against my position were a British scholar, an Israeli editor and a Franco-Algerian journalist.
All were concerned about one thing: the seizure of power in Damascus by Islamists.
When it became clear that verbal wrestling was leading nowhere, the British scholar came out with his silver bullet.
“I can prove you wrong with one word,” he asserted. “The word is: Iran!”
Some guests nodded in agreement.
The argument, of course, is that in 1979, regime change in Iran took place in the name of freedom and democracy but ended up in Khomeini’s fascist regime that has oppressed the Iranian people and tried to destroy Iranian culture.
The analogy is not limited to Syria.
Some Western scholars believe that Muslims are doomed to suffer bad regimes because what they might get in exchange could be worse. Some “experts” on both sides of the Atlantic have already decided that “Arab Spring” is a failure.
Are “Arab Spring” countries, including Syria, doomed to repeat Iran’s experience?
My answer is: no.
The first reason is that, thanks to an explosion in information, people are aware of what has happened Iran.
The second, and more important reason, is that, today, many politically active Muslims are determined not to repeat the mistakes of their Iranian counterparts in the 1970s.
In those decisive years, the Shah’s opponents adopted the Machiavellian maxim of “the end justifies the means.” Wishing to see the end of the Shah, they were prepared to lie about every aspect of life in Iran.
Here is how Akbar Ganji, a former Khomeinist activist and member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), put it in a recent interview: “We lied against the Shah. We lied, saying that the Shah’s government has 150,000 political prisoners. That was a lie. We lied, saying that the Shah’s government murdered {authors} Samad Behrangi and Sadeq Hedayat. We lied, saying the Shah’s government murdered {Islamist propagandist} Dr. Shariati. We told those lies, knowing them to be lies.”
What Ganji does not mention is worse.
Anti-Shah activists did not only lie to others; they also lied to themselves.
They lied to themselves by disguising their political identity.
The daily Mardom (People), organ of the Communist Tudeh (Masses) Party, ran editorials praising Khomeini to the skies.
Clean-shaven atheists in French designer suits suddenly changed their appearances by growing beards and wearing mullah-style shirts. They peppered their writings with Arabic phrases instead of tidbits from Jean-Paul Sartre and other luminaries of Parisian cafes.
In those days, I ran into arguments, and, in some cases, the end of friendship, with several people.
My argument was that one could be against two bad things at the same time. If one opposed the Shah’s regime, for whatever reason, one did not have to support the ridiculous and ultimately deadly witches’ brew that Khomeini dished out. Reading Khomeini’s books in those days made me laugh. I did not know Fereydoun Hoveyda’s observation that, if translated into action, political books that make you laugh are sure to make you cry. I urged friends who wished to oppose the Shah to do so from their own sincerely-held positions. I wanted democrats to be democratic opponents of the Shah. I wanted Communists to be Communist opponents of the Shah, and so on.
Needless to say, soon, I was to mourn democrat, nationalist, communist, socialist and liberal friends who had helped bring Khomeini to power and who were executed, imprisoned or driven into the misery of exile by the mullahs. Imagine if Iran had retained the rich political diversity it had developed over 150 years and briefly manifested in the 1970s before Khomeini imposed uniformity in the name of Walayat al-Faqih (rule by the mullahs).You could imagine my depression in forced exile, each day of it a pain.
My depression was deepened by concern that other Muslim nations might repeat Iran’s tragic mistake. That concern was heightened in the 1990s when many believed that Algeria was going “the way of Iran.” In the early stages of the Algerian crisis several personalities and one or two parties did behave more or less like their Iranian counterparts in the 1970s by wearing an Islamist mask.
Soon, however, a majority of Algerians realized that it was suicidal to fight a bad regime by supporting a fascist ideology. Opponents of the Algerian regime managed to retain their specific identities. That, I believe, was a factor in saving Algeria from becoming a “second Iran”.
Let’s return to Syria.
One mantra in Western political circles is that the Syrian opposition is not united.
That is not true. The Syrian opposition is united in wanting Assad to go. Beyond that, the parties, personalities and movements engaged in this popular uprising should protect their separate identities. Each should oppose Assad from its own political position. Unity without uniformity could help Syria aspire after pluralism and diversity without which it cannot build a future in freedom.

From Stalin to Bashar: Messages of love and hate
By Adel Al Toraifi/Asharq Alawsat
In 1969, “comrade” Vyacheslav Molotov, former Russian Foreign Minister under Stalin – as well as one of Stalin’s closest aides – was approaching his eightieth year, living alone and forgotten after being ousted from power [in 1961] following the death of his leader. In the years that followed, many people wondered about the secrets and information he possessed about the ruling elite of the then Soviet Union. However, when Nikita Khrushchev – one of Molotov’s opponents - died, Leonid Brezhnev rose to power and lifted the state of house arrest that has been imposed on Molotov, who promptly returned the favor by handing over a number of important files that were in his possession, including Stalin's secret letters which were preserved in the ruling party’s archive. Such letters remained hidden until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. However, US historian Lars Lih managed to publish them in 1995 under the title “Stalin's Letters to Molotov, 1925–36”.
The importance of these letters lies in the fact that they are a major source of material to help us understand Stalin’s thought process. Lih indicates that Stalin, as seen in his letters, appears as a dictator who devotes every single moment of his life towards weaving conspiracy theories and plots, and getting rid of his opponents by first bringing them close to him, and then turning the tables on them at the height of their arrogance and conceit. Stalin was particularly impressed by Ivan the Terrible, whom he regarded as a champion. However, the letters also showed the human side of Stalin, as reflected in the Christmas greeting cards he sent to Molotov's wife, his inquiries about their children's health, and the educational advice and moral sermons he offered.
The recent leaked emails of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his wife, as published by the press recently, can be considered an exceptional incident. In fact, this is the first time the world has been able to see the thought process of a president who uses excessive force to confront his people's uprising against his rule. Whilst it is true that the accuracy of these emails cannot be verified conclusively, for the majority of them have been redacted or refined, they do offer us a rough vision of what is going on inside the al-Assad house, and they provide us with a rough diary of the regime in Syria following a year-long revolution. The press focused extensively on the lavishness and extravagance of the presidential couple - as seen in their online shopping, as well as the inner circle of female confidantes. However, what is of greater significance is the political and strategic side of the more than 3,000 emails. This is because, for the first time, we can view the decision-making mechanism within the regime, and the means and ways it uses to manage the crisis.
It might require dozens of specialized researchers and several months to analyze the full contents of these documents and draw up a complete summary. Further leaks may emerge in the event of the al-Assad regime being toppled, but for now at least we can come up with general remarks, most notably that the regime, contrary to what we all thought, seems calm and even cool in its handling of the crisis. The regime, as reflected by the leaks, does not seem to be greatly concerned about the possibility of its downfall, nor does there seem to be a “plan B” in place should the regime's tactics fail. Al-Assad seems more coherent than his opponents think he is. His television appearances are well orchestrated and the regime's statements are ornate and free from any noticeable confusion. The regime manages its media discourse itself and never allows any senior state official to issue statements. At a time when nearly 50 military officials are defecting from the regime on a daily basis, Bashar al-Assad, who is known for his love of modern technology, spends most of his time surfing the internet, listening to modern music, consulting with young female confidantes, and listening to advice and recommendations from outside the official channels of the state.
Some observers explain al-Assad's behavior as that of a psychopathic character who – along with his family – lives under a dangerous illusion and is completely detached from the bloody reality his people are experiencing. However, there are those who believe that al-Assad's state of coolness and coherence displays his ability to persist with confrontation, no matter how long it takes, as the current crisis requires each party to exercise patience for as long as possible. In a statement to the Financial Times in March 2012, Jerrold Post, a professor of political psychiatry at George Washington University, says that although Bashar al-Assad does not seem to be in direct contact with the crisis in Syria, he seems " more put together" than someone like Gaddafi. According to Post, this can be explained by al-Assad's background; “[he was] not a born leader, he was also not destined for the presidency, reaching it only because his brother Basil, the presumed heir, died in a car accident”.
Perhaps, this is the source of the danger – or even the weakness of Bashar al-Assad as a president. He relies primarily on the history of his father and the advice he receives from his inner circle. Yet, according to Post, "this was not part of his psychological calculations, he wasn’t schooled in the intricacies of managing a totalitarian state." According to al-Arabiya TV, perhaps it is for this reason that none of the leaked emails contained messages from senior officials in the government, the ruling Baathist party, or even al-Assad’s family members such as his brother Maher, or his brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, who were not mentioned at all. This means that the regime's official institutions do not use this particular email address to correspond with the president. Nevertheless, these emails can at least give us a brief view of a president who is detached from the current crisis in his country, and who is preoccupied with how to improve his stature and portray himself in a better light, without promoting a sense of weakness or having to retreat.
Bashar's case is a complex one, he is obsessed by – and even believes in – his view of the situation, exactly as his adherers want him to see it. When reading what Bashar says, one recalls Al Pacino in the movie "Scarface", where he played a gangster who strongly believed in his own destiny and his ability to overcome any crisis by displaying excessive challenging or confrontational behavior. Hence, the Syrian regime's future seems to be a repetition of the tragedies of a gang that failed to confront its rivals and competitors. If you think that al-Assad is managing the crisis, you would be mistaken, because he is nothing more than a failed heir to a historic gang that has provoked hostilities with its opponents and rivals. Therefore, on the day that the al-Assad regime falls, Bashar al-Assad will remain standing alone, believing that both his destiny and his people are on his side.
Peter Harling, Project Director with the Middle East Program of the "International Crisis Croup", told Agence France-Presse [AFP] that "the regime believes that the international community after a while will realise that it cannot be undone, that the pressure will relent and that the outside will reengage... when we throw envoys at them without a clear mandate, it further convinces them that they are doing the right thing ". According to "al-Hayat" newspaper, however, analysts believe that although Bashar al-Assad is in possession of military force that can crush the defectors' strongholds, as happened recently in Homs and later on in Idlib, the regime has almost reached its end, and it is ultimately fighting a losing battle. Harling says "It's a game of whack a mole”, whereby if the regime extinguishes a fire somewhere, a new fire erupts somewhere else. Will all-Assad understand the truth of what is going on? A former associate said: he [al-Assad] seems to be unaware of what is going on. He lives under an illusion that the regime's adherers in the security apparatus have created for him. We may reach a stage whereby al-Assad is ousted, and nevertheless, he remains unaware of what is going on.
In a message Asma al-Assad sent to her husband in late December 2011 – indicative of the level of stress which the couple was facing at a time of intense international pressure being mounted on the regime to prompt it to end its violence - she said "If we are strong together, we will overcome this together .... I love you".

Personal emails
By Diana Mukkaled/Asharq Alawsat
We have been preoccupied with the leaked emails of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, his wife and members of his inner circle of associates. They were reported by the media and then their credibility was debated at great length by the experts. Then the emails were verified by many of the individuals who were named in them, thus confirming the story originally published by the British newspaper “The Guardian”.The emails have provided us with a picture other than what we previously imagined about Bashar al-Assad, his family and his cohorts, in times such as those being experienced by Syria today. Our imagination always thought it likely that the inner relationship was one of continuous meetings and confusion, followed by firm decisions issued by a group of ruthless officers and officials.
We always wondered whether the Syrian President ever saw the images of cold-blooded murder [committed by his regime], and whether he heard what the Syrians repeat publicly against their oppressors and against him personally. Many often wondered about the role of his wife and her awareness of the reality of the systematic killings taking place under the responsibility of her husband and his administration. She has always been promoted by the Syrian and some global media outlets as a modern woman trying to support the efforts of her husband in developing the country.
Yet those imagined images bore no relation to what was reflected in the leaked emails.
Those emails revealed the enormity of the distance separating the President, his interests and his family from what the uprising Syrians are going through. It is clear that the extreme violence and cruelty carried out against the Syrians by the security services and the Shabiha does not concern the ruling family, and does not change the reality of the inner circle’s daily life.
These emails told us what Asma al-Assad buys online, what music the Syrian President downloads, who his advisors are and what their relationship is, and what type of advice he receives, for anyone paying attention to this critical stage that Syria is experiencing.
We have become so preoccupied with al-Assad’s emails to the extent that we have begun to ask how we can allow ourselves to drift behind the scandals of such emails, instead of the tragedy that reoccurs every day on the streets of Syria.
Yet the scandal with regards to the leaked al-Assad emails has another dimension.
It is scandalous that some Arab “opposition” newspapers and media outlets are working behind the scenes to prevent the publication of these emails and to abstain from commenting on them.
These same media outlets celebrated the “Wikileaks” revelations, which were no less scandalous and did not distinguish between public or private information, however it seemed that their publication was justified and indeed beneficial to the public, as they revealed the hypocrisies of many.
But with al-Assad’s emails, there were those who were reluctant, believing that the publication of such messages was a violation of assumed sanctities and privacies.
Yet privacy does not apply in this case; because Mrs. al-Assad is shopping online whilst the regime which funds here purchases is carrying out daily killings. The emails were not limited to shopping transactions, but also showed details of the regime’s decision-making and consultation process. The President does not consult with people like him, but rather with young women because he believes they are better suited to addressing the West. Here we can realize how much Bashar al-Assad is unwilling to address the Syrians; he does not care about their reactions to what he says, and worse than that he does not care about their pain or the gravity of what he is subjecting them to.

Voting for the prodigal son
Michael Young, March 23, 2012
Daily Star/It’s never a good idea to write off Saad Hariri, who next month will have spent a year outside Lebanon. However, several telltale signs suggest that the former prime minister’s absence could cost him politically in the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2013.
The first is that Hariri’s Future Movement apparently continues to suffer from cash-flow problems, severely curtailing its powers of patronage. The movement has already laid off staff, and recently the two Hariri television stations, Future and Future News, merged, to further reduce expenses. While a rationalization of Future’s political expenditures was always a necessity, what we have today is more serious. Unless Hariri reinvigorates his funding networks before election time, the shortfall may decisively affect voting in areas.
A second sign is that new figures are stepping into the vacuum that Hariri has left. The case of Sheikh Ahmad al-Assir in Saida is a good example. Assir appeared on Marcel Ghanem’s talk show last week. He was critical of Hariri for being absent from Lebanon and for having labeled him an extremist, before coming across as someone both coherent and composed. Assir is emerging as a significant player in Saida. This cannot please the Hariris, who hail from the city and regard the mood there as a barometer of their popularity.
Even among Hariri’s followers, there is dissatisfaction. For instance, Mouin Meraabi, a parliamentarian from Akkar, has disparaged the Future Movement’s policies in the district, in particular its poor response to the humanitarian crisis brought about by the arrival of Syrian refugees. A number of Meraabi’s fellow bloc members, too, are wondering what is going on. They will not break with Hariri, but they readily acknowledge a sense of loss in Future’s political direction.
If there is to be a backlash against Saad Hariri, where might it be most potent? The Assir phenomenon in Saida needs to be watched closely. There may well be sporadic contact between the sheikh and members of the Future Movement, despite Assir’s harsh words for the former prime minister. But even if the mutual antipathy softens, the sheikh will definitely have a say in elections when Saida votes next.
In the North, Hariri should be equally careful. Already in place is the solid core of a rival list in Tripoli. It includes, of course, Najib Mikati, Mohammad Safadi, and Faysal Karami. While Mosbah al-Ahdab has been loyal to March 14, he bears a grudge against Hariri and the Future Movement for having failed to appoint him a minister in May 2008, after Michel Sleiman’s election to the presidency, and for having dropped him entirely from its list in 2009. Ahdab could conceivably join Mikati if Tripoli enters into an electoral confrontation, bringing with him valuable anti-Syrian bona fides.
Nor can we forget that there is a wild card in the city, namely Ashraf Rifi, the Internal Security Forces chief. He is popular in the North and has been protected by both Hariri and Mikati. Which list would he join if he were a candidate? The choice could be fateful.
In Beirut, the situation is different. Hariri remains dominant because there is no obvious Sunni alternative. However, observers of Beirut politics, assuming the districting in 2013 is the same as in 2009, expect the former prime minister, because of his long absence, to be more vulnerable to the demands of his allies, among them Samir Geagea. The Lebanese Forces leader is thought to want to place at least one loyal Christian on Hariri’s list in the heavily Sunni third district of Beirut, where three Christian seats are up for grabs.
There is also some question as to how Al-Jamaa al-Islamiya will lean. Currently, the group has one parliamentarian, Imad al-Hout, from the third district in Beirut. However, Al-Jamaa has sizable bloc votes in Beirut, Saida, and Sunni districts in the North. Wherever there are races, it will find itself in an ideal position to play Hariri off against eventual challengers and demand more Al-Jamaa candidates on electoral lists, before backing the highest bidder.
In the West Bekaa and Zahle, Hariri continues to have influence over Sunni voters, but probably not as much as in 2009, when Lebanon was more polarized. In the Chouf, where a third of the electorate is Sunni, Hariri will almost certainly side with Walid Jumblatt. In exchange for this, the Druze leader is likely to see Ghazi al-Aridi taken on a Hariri list in Beirut and Wael Abu Faour in the West Bekaa. In other words, in mainly rural areas the capacity of Hariri to reconfigure or abandon his 2009 alliances will be limited.
This is important, because it implies that in many constituencies the former prime minister will perhaps react more than he initiates. In Saida and Tripoli, whether there is a contest or the political differences with his opponents are papered over, Hariri may be less the dominating force that he was during the previous two elections. Even in Beirut, he may have to pay a fee to his allies, who will feel that they are entitled to more from the former prime minister for having remained in Lebanon through difficult times when he was abroad.
The outcome in Syria will have a fundamental impact on the next elections, and on the Sunni mood specifically. Until now, Hariri and his followers have been insufficiently active, except verbally, in taking advantage of what has become a defining struggle for the Sunnis of Syria, and by extension of Lebanon. The former prime minister still expects to alight at the last minute, promise assistance and win a new majority. But things may not be quite so simple.
Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper in Lebanon. He tweets @BeirutCalling.