LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 18/12

Bible Quotation for today/The Parables of the Mustard Seed the Yeast
Matthew 13/31-35: " Jesus told them another parable: The Kingdom of heaven is like this. A man takes a mustard seed and sows it in his field. It is the smallest of all seeds, but when it grows up, it is the biggest of all plants. It becomes a tree, so that birds come and make their nests in its branches. Jesus told them still another parable: The Kingdom of heaven is like this. A woman takes some yeast and mixes it with a bushel of flour until the whole batch of dough rises.  Jesus used parables to tell all these things to the crowds; he would not say a thing to them without using a parable. He did this to make come true what the prophet had said, I will use parables when I speak to them; I will tell them things unknown since the creation of the world.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
U.S. may have less Mideast clout, uses it with care/ By Arshad Mohammed/Daily Star/June 17/12

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for June 17/12
Bombs rock churches in northern Nigeria
Nigeria church suicide bombings kill 19, spark reprisals
Iran, world powers set for showdown in Moscow
Former Iran negotiator: Islamic Republic unlikely to accept West's offer in new round of nuclear talks
Saudi king to bury Crown Prince, find successor
The passing of the incomparable Prince Naif
May God have mercy on Prince Naif Bin Abdulaziz
Prince Naif was the personification of stability

The loss of Prince Naif
Canada Offers Condolences Following Death of Saudi Prince
Russia flies anti-air, anti-ship missiles to Assad as its fleet heads to Tartus
Syria rebels more organised as insurgency grows
Syrian activists warn of dire conditions in Homs
Syria's Homs battered as weekend death toll reaches 84
Regime forces besiege Homs, 69 killed across Syria
Anxiety as Egypt's presidency vote nears end
Egypt votes for 2nd day to pick Mubarak successor
U.S. may have less Mideast clout, uses it with care
Lebanon’s ex-PM Siniora warned he might be assassination target: source
Hezbollah: Dialogue essential, fortifies Lebanon
Lebanon's Arabic press digest - June 17, 2012
Sleiman, Turkish president discuss case of kidnapped pilgrims
March 14 slams Cabinet’s overspending decision
Mufti says Saudi Arabia keen on Lebanon's stability, unity


Nigeria church suicide bombings kill 19, spark reprisals
June 17, 2012/By Isaac Abrak/Daily Star

ZARIA, Nigeria: Suicide car bombers attacked three churches in northern Nigeria on Sunday, killing at least 19 people and wounding dozens, and triggering retaliatory attacks by Christian youths who dragged Muslims from cars and killed them, officials and witnesses said. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the bombings but Islamist group Boko Haram has often attacked church services in Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, split roughly evenly between Christians and Muslims. The violence stoked fears of wider sectarian conflict in Nigeria, an OPEC member and Africa's top oil producer where the Christian Association of Kano, northern Nigeria's main city, called the bombings "a clear invitation to religious war". Last Sunday, militants attacked two churches in Nigeria, spraying the congregation of one with bullets, killing at least one person, and blowing up a car in a suicide bombing at the other, wounding 41. Boko Haram claimed responsibility. In the latest violence, the first two blasts rocked churches in the town of Zaria within minutes of each other. First, a suicide bomber drove a blue Honda Civic into Ekwa Church, its pastor told a Reuters cameraman at the scene. "Three people are confirmed killed. Others have been taken to hospital for treatment," said Reverend Nathan Waziri. The second suicide car bombing was at Kings Catholic Church, killing 10 people, said Bishop of Zaria George Dogo who was giving a service in the church when it was attacked. Suicide bombers in a Toyota saloon then hit Shalom Church in the state's main city of Kaduna, killing six people. The military said the dead included an army sergeant. Manan Janet, who was in the church, said she saw six bodies. "It was terrible. I'm traumatised," she said. Musa Ilela, an official from the National Emergency Management Agency in Kaduna state, said the death toll had yet to be established. "The injured and dead have been moved to the hospitals. Our men have not been able to get to the blast site in Kaduna," he said. After the bombings, Christian youths blocked the highway leading south out of Kaduna to the capital Abuja, pulling Muslims out of cars and killing them, witnesses said. "We had to return home when we saw (the Christian youths) attacking. I saw many bodies on the ground, but I don't know how many were dead or just injured," said Kaduna resident Rafael Gwaza.

Witness Haruna Isah said up to 20 people might have been killed in reprisals at the road-block. "There were bodies everywhere on the ground," he said. Kaduna state governor Patrick Yakowa called for calm. "In view of the incidents and the need to have complete normalcy and to forestall a further break down of law and order, the state government has imposed a 24-hour curfew in the whole state," a statement from his office said. "The state government considers this to be necessary in order to avert further loss of lives and properties." Boko Haram says it is fighting to reinstate an ancient Islamic caliphate that would adhere to strict sharia, or Islamic law. The Islamists' leader Abubakar Shekau says attacks on Christians are in revenge for killings of Muslims in Nigeria's volatile "Middle Belt", where the largely Christian south and mostly Muslim north meet.Kaduna is close to the Middle Belt areas.

 

Bombs rock churches in northern Nigeria

By AFP/Bombs rocked three churches in neighbouring cities in Nigeria's northern Kaduna state on Sunday, injuring dozens of worshippers, emergency services and residents said. The number of casualties in the blasts in the neighbouring cities of Zaria and Kaduna was not immediately clear. Police and the military cordoned off the areas around the churches. The state-run National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) said the blasts happened in the Wusasa and Sabongari districts of Zaria, previously targeted by the Islamist group Boko Haram. Residents in the areas said many people were injured in the attacks on the Christ the King Catholic Cathedral and ECWA GoodNews Church. "Many people in the church were injured but I have not seen any dead bodies," a woman who was in the church in Wusasa at the time of the explosion said by telephone from her hospital bed. Several residents in Sabongari said the church was badly damaged.

"I went close to the church but could not access it due to heavy police and military security deployed around it," resident Mahmud Hamza told AFP. "From where I stood I could see a badly destroyed church still burning from the explosion. It is obvious there were deaths from the scale of the damage and the fire," he added. Another resident spoke of seeing bodies being taken out of the church.

Officials later reported a third bomb attack on a church in Kaduna, but there were no immediate reports of casualties. Boko Haram has claimed responsibility for a series of attacks targeting churches in Africa's most populous nation and largest oil producer.

 

Hezbollah: Dialogue essential, fortifies Lebanon

 June 17, 2012/The Daily Star

BEIRUT: Head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, MP Mohammad Raad, said Sunday that dialogue was needed at all times as it protected Lebanon and offered a means to resolving crises.

“Dialogue is necessary at all times since it fortifies Lebanon and helps find solutions to all crises the country is facing,” said Raad during a party rally in Kafra village of Bint Jbeil, south Lebanon.

The Hezbollah official said the crisis in the Syria, previous agreements at National Dialogue sessions and a national defense strategy all needed to be discussed at future all-party talks.

On the crisis in Syria, Raad said his party held its views on the 15-month-long unrest in Lebanon’s neighbor, “but we need to agree on how we can dissociate Lebanon from repercussions resulting from the crisis, which would ruin its security and stability and eventually affect the country’s political and economic situation.”“There are also other subjects that require dialogue and these are the continuation of the previous agreements in previous dialogue sessions and discussions on reaching a positive methodology to approach the national defense strategy,” Raad, who represents Hezbollah at the National Dialogue, added. Political leaders gathered at Baabda Palace on June 11 to resume National Dialogue sessions stalled since November 2010 and agreed to back the Lebanese Army and shield Lebanon from regional and international conflicts. The Hezbollah official also said unrest in north Lebanon was a threat to the country’s stability and said that “we need to find a calm solution to this at the National Dialogue table in order to protect the north and provide the appropriate environment for the army to carry out its security duties to preserve security and stability.”

Raad said his party hoped National Dialogue would produce “a methodology that boosts the project of building the state and pushes all officials towards this project.”

He said this was essential as the country could no longer carry on in the absence of a state, which he said was confronted by street action whenever it failed to fulfill its duties.

Also talking on National Dialogue Sunday, Agriculture Minister Hussein Hajj Hasan said Hezbollah’s weapons could be discussed during the all-party talks so long a viable alternative could be proposed.

“We held a National Dialogue session and we will hold another and it is the right of some to bring problematic issues and discuss the weapons of the resistance but they have to propose an alternative,” Hasan, who spoke in the southern coastal city of Tyre, said.

The minister, however, voiced doubts that an alternative to Hezbollah’s weapons could be brought to the National Dialogue table.

“Would this alternative weaken Lebanon?” he asked, adding that “when someone wants to bring up what they regard as problematic or wants to propose an idea or opinion, they have to put a realistic view.”

“But what have they managed to accomplish over the years?” he asked, addressing his rivals in the March 14 coalition. “Would the south have been liberated had it not been for the weapons of the resistance fighters and martyrs?” the Hezbollah official added. Hasan said the diplomatic route adopted by the opposition when in government had failed to liberate any Lebanese lands.

“Our formula is that of the army, people and resistance. Their [March 14 coalition] formula, on the other hand, is the diplomatic one, which did not return you the northern parts of Ghajjar, nor the Shebaa Farms, nor Kfar Shouba hills and the Americans and European were coming and going,” he said. Hasan also defended the March 8 dominated government from criticism but admitted that many of the pressing issues and concerns of the people could not be resolved under the current conditions. “It is true that there are problems of electricity, water, economy, unemployment and the general debt,” he said.

“However, these are not the problems of this government and it cannot resolve these issue because these problems require a government in the best of conditions in terms of security, economics and stability,” he added. “The accumulation of complications over many years cannot be resolved in a year that was full of incidents as we have seen recently.”

 

Lebanon’s ex-PM Siniora warned he might be assassination target: source

 June 17, 2012 /By Atallah al-Salim/The Daily Star 

BEIRUT: Former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has received warnings from regional and international sides that he might be the target of an assassination attempt, a source close to the Future parliamentary bloc leader told The Daily Star Sunday. “In reports, during meetings, calls and reports with regional and international sides, Siniora was warned that he might be the target of an assassination attempt,” the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said. He said the warnings were recent and the objective behind the plot was to sow strife in the country. The source said the Sidon MP received a list of five names of people who could be targeted. Siniora’s name was among the list, he added. The list contained names of religious and political figures, the source said. In April, Lebanese Force head Sami Geagea, a leading figure in the March 14 coalition opposition, was the target of an alleged assassination attempt. In May, several local newspapers carried reports saying that extremists had entered the country to carry out assassinations and that security agencies believe senior Lebanese politicians, including Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, are among the targets. Berri lent credibility to the May reports, saying these needed to be taken seriously and require vigilance. Earlier this year, media reports said that Ashraf Rifi, the head of the Internal Security Forces, and Wissam al-Hasan, the chief of the Internal Security Force’s Information Branch, were the possible targets of a plot. The reports prompted the ISF to enact emergency measures around its headquarters in the neighborhood of Ashrafieh.

 

Saudi king to bury Crown Prince, find successor

By Angus McDowall | Reuters

RIYADH (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah prepared to bury his former heir, Crown Prince Nayef, on Sunday before naming a new successor at a challenging time for the world's top oil exporter and self-styled steward of Islam. The crown prince's body arrived in Jeddah on Sunday a day after his death, where it was met at King Khaled Airport by a host of Saudi princes.

Among them was the most likely candidate to take the position to succeed the 89-year-old king is Prince Salman, 76, another son of Saudi Arabia's founder Abdulaziz ibn Saud.

The new crown prince will become heir to a king who is aged 89 at a time when Saudi Arabia faces a variety of challenges at home and abroad.

Although the Interior Ministry, which the late Nayef headed for 37 years, crushed al Qaeda inside Saudi Arabia its Yemeni wing has sworn to topple the ruling al-Saud family and has plotted attacks against the kingdom. Saudi rulers are also grappling with unrest in areas populated by the Shi'ite Muslim minority and with entrenched youth unemployment.

The kingdom is also locked in a region-wide rivalry with Shi'ite Iran - the party at the airport included former Lebanese prime minister Saad al-Hariri, representing the Sunni Muslim political alliance that Saudi Arabia cultivates against Iran. "We call on God to help King Abdullah choose the right person who can bear the burdens of this position at this difficult time we face both at the level of the Arab nation and that of the Islamic community," Prince Mishaal bin Abdullah bin Turki al-Saud told Reuters.

Salman, who is seen as a pragmatist with a strong grasp of the intricate balance of competing princely and clerical interests that dominate Saudi politics, was named defense minister last year.

The appointment of a new crown prince is not likely to change the kingdom's position on foreign or domestic policy but might influence the course of cautious social and economic reforms started under King Abdullah. "Certainly they are going to continue to focus on the relationship with the U.S., and continue to make efforts to properly husband their abundant natural resources of oil," said Robert Jordan, U.S. ambassador to Riyadh from 2001 to 2003.

FAMILY COUNCIL

Although most analysts believe it is highly likely Salman will be chosen, the ultimate decision may rest with a family Allegiance Council called to approve King Abdullah's decision.

The Saudi succession does not pass from father to eldest son but has moved along a line of brothers born to Ibn Saud. A previous crown prince, Sultan, died last October.

Under rules drawn up by King Abdullah, the Allegiance Council has 30 days to approve the monarch's successor.

"There will be a meeting where the next crown prince will be decided. It has always been done in an orderly and organized manner. Prince Salman fits the profile in many ways," said Khaled Almaeena, editor-in-chief of the Saudi Gazette. A source close to the royal family said Nayef had died suddenly in Geneva after receiving treatment for a knee complaint. He was thought to be 78.

Before the funeral, King Abdullah travelled to Mecca on Sunday evening from Jeddah, where the royal court and cabinet spend the summer, Saudi Press Agency reported.

Television showed a host of princes in red-and-white headdresses, including Salman and Mecca governor Prince Khaled al-Faisal gathered on the runway to escort Nayef's body to an ambulance.

Newspapers on Sunday mourned the death on their front pages.

Al-Jazirah's front page was entirely in black and white and showed photographs of the king and late crown prince. The English-language Saudi Gazette splashed a full-page picture of Nayef with the headline: "Unto God do we belong and, verily, unto Him we shall return". Analysts say the most difficult decision in the succession will be when the line of Ibn Saud's sons is exhausted and a grandson must be chosen as crown prince. Grandsons with the experience and qualifications to rule include Prince Khaled al-Faisal, the governor of Mecca province who is 71, and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the deputy interior minister, who is 52. "The house of Saud will need to think about what would happen in the event the king became unwell, and there is no way on earth you would hand the crown prince role to a grandson in 48 hours time. You have to find an older prince," said Michael Stephens of the Royal United Services Institute in Qatar.

Only a few princes of the older generation have the experience deemed necessary to rule the Middle East's largest economy.

One of them, Prince Ahmed, is a full brother of Nayef and Salman, as well as the late King Fahd and the former crown prince, Sultan. He has been deputy interior minister since 1975 and is seen as likely to replace Nayef as full minister. "The expectation is that Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz will take over the position of the interior minister after Prince Nayef passed away considering that Prince Ahmed has served as deputy interior minister for 20 years. I think he is the closest to take over this position," Prince Sultan bin Saud al-Saud told Reuters. (Reporting by Angus McDowall; Additional reporting by Ismail Nofal in Jeddah and Isabel Coles in Dubai; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

 

Canada Offers Condolences Following Death of Saudi Prince

June 16, 2012 - Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird today issued the following statement:

“On behalf of all Canadians, I extend my deepest condolences to the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, and to the people of Saudi Arabia, on the death of the Deputy Premier and Minister of Interior, Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud.

Saudi Arabia has lost an honourable man of great achievement who has dedicated his life to the security and prosperity of the people of Saudi Arabia.

“Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud successfully oversaw a modernization effort within the Ministry of Interior and helped forge strong cooperative ties on security matters between Canada and Saudi Arabia. Under his leadership, Saudi Arabia has made significant progress in rooting out terrorism and extremism in the region.”

 

Iran, world powers set for showdown in Moscow

By Dmitry Zaks | AFP /.World powers resume crisis talks with Iran on Monday amid hope that a crippling oil embargo and pressure from host Russia will finally force the Islamic Republic to scale back its nuclear drive. The two-day meeting follows a bruising May session in Baghdad during which Iran nearly walked out of negotiations aimed ultimately at keeping it from joining the exclusive club of nations with an atomic bomb. Host Russia however is keen to flex its diplomatic muscle and make Iran an example of how Moscow's influence over Soviet-era partners could be used to avoid foreign military intervention in the 16-month crisis in Syria. "There are reasons to believe that the next step will be taken in Moscow," Russia's Deputy Foreign Sergei Ryabkov said.

Failure in Moscow could leave the process in tatters and raise the threat of air raids from arch-foe Israel -- a fateful scenario in which broader conflict would lead to a spike in oil prices that could tip over the world's teetering economy. But a July 1 deadline for a full EU oil embargo and the June 28 rollout of tough US sanctions against a host of Iranian oil clients is providing added pressure for Tehran to bargain more seriously. Two of the biggest bones of contention involve the speed with which world powers lift existing sanctions and the recognition of Iran's "right to enrich" uranium.

The latter is emerging as a key demand that Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili is likely to present to EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton when she represents the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany in Moscow. "We expect that Iran's right to nuclear technologies, including uranium enrichment, will be recognised and respected," Jalili told Russia's RT state-run world news channel in comments translated from Farsi. Iran for its part "has the capacities to cooperate in disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation, so these capacities should be used by the international community," Jalili said in Friday's broadcast. "I think that addressing these two issues will help to advance the negotiations." Diplomats said Iran had agreed to discuss the idea of limits to its enrichment programme under a proposal initially outlined in Baghdad. "Their message on enrichment has been received," said a Western diplomat close to the negotiations.

"I think that much will depend on how Iran reacts to our proposals as well. But we're ready to discuss theirs," the Western diplomat said. But Western officials have also made clear that Iran's current position would leave them no choice but to go ahead with the oil sanctions while considering new ones in the months to come. They add that the two sides still remain far apart despite the mounting pressure. The offer outlined by the powers last month and under discussion in Moscow would see Iran stop enriching uranium to 20 percent -- seen as being just steps away from weapons-grade -- and ship out its existing stock while shuttering its Fordo bunker. The nuclear enrichment site is buried deep in the Iranian mountains and is believed to be bunker-buster proof.

The tough terms would not lead to the quick lifting of sanctions but instead see the West extend some forms of peaceful nuclear energy cooperation and provide assistance for Iran's battered aircraft industry.

Europe would also help Iran export oil to key client Asia by easing an EU ban on tanker insurance. Iran has previously scoffed at the idea of accepting only reactor fuel and civil aviation parts in immediate return. But calls are growing on US President Barack Obama from both Israel and the US Congress ahead of his November re-election bid to reject any compromise.

A bipartisan letter signed by 44 senators urged Obama on Friday to cut off negotiations unless Iran agrees to shutter the Fordo bunker and halt its enrichment programme outright.

"The biggest hurdle to a nuclear deal right now is the absence of political will in Washington," said former Iranian delegation adviser Kaveh Afrasiabi. But "I am cautiously optimistic and expect even a mini breakthrough provided that the Western governments display the needed flexibility," Afrasiabi told AFP."The Moscow talks are primed for a positive step forward."

 

Former Iran negotiator: Islamic Republic unlikely to accept West's offer in new round of nuclear talks

By Reuters | Jun.15, 2012/Hossein Mousavian, who was a senior member of Iran's nuclear negotiating team between 2003 and 2005, dismisses West's proposal as 'diamonds for peanuts.'A former Iranian negotiator on Friday dismissed as "diamonds for peanuts" a proposal by world powers that Tehran halt higher-grade uranium enrichment and close an underground nuclear site in exchange for reactor fuel and civil aviation parts. Hossein Mousavian, now a visiting scholar at Princeton University in the United States, said he did not believe Iran would accept the offer when the two sides hold a new round of discussions in Moscow on June 18-19. It will be the third meeting since diplomacy restarted in April after a 15-month hiatus.

"I do not expect too much, said Mousavian, a senior member of Iran's nuclear negotiating team in 2003-05. If the major powers are not ready to move on the critical issues of gradually removing sanctions on Iran and recognizing its right to refine uranium, "I'm afraid the Moscow talks also would fail," he told Reuters in a telephone interview. Mousavian held his post before conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took over from his reformist predecessor Mohammad Khatami in 2005. Western envoys who know Mousavian say that at the time he appeared to be genuinely interested in reaching a deal with the West. The six powers - the United States, France, Germany, Britain, China and Russia - want to make sure Iran does not develop nuclear bombs. The Islamic Republic wants a lifting of sanctions and recognition of what it says are its rights to peaceful nuclear energy, including enriching uranium. European Union officials said on Monday that Iran had agreed to discuss a proposal to curb its production of higher-grade uranium at the meeting in the Russian capital, an apparent attempt to reduce tensions ahead of the talks. The development followed more than two weeks of wrangling between Iranian diplomats and Western negotiators over preparations for the closely watched round of negotiations.

Mousavian said Iran was ready for a "big deal" on the decade-old nuclear dispute, but political constraints in the United States ahead of November's presidential election and other factors meant the other side was not. "President Obama has very limited room to maneuver in an election year," Mousavian said. Barack Obama's Republican opponents have attempted to paint him as soft on enemies of the U.S.

In the immediate term, the powers want Tehran to cease enriching uranium to 20 percent fissile concentration, because such production represents a major technological advance en route to making weapons-grade material. They put forward a proposal on how to achieve this at a round of talks in Baghdad in May, in which Tehran would stop production, close the Fordow underground facility where such work is done, and ship its stockpile out of the country. In return, they offered to supply the Islamic state with fuel for a medical research reactor in Tehran, which requires 20-percent uranium, and to ease sanctions against the sale of commercial aircraft parts to Iran. No agreement was reached in Baghdad but the seven countries agreed to continue discussions in Moscow.

"I believe this is diamonds for peanuts," Mousavian said, adding that Iran already had fuel rods. "Therefore this is not something great to offer Iran."

The International Crisis Group think-tank said the powers' offer "was deliberately ungenerous" and likely to have been meant as an opening bid in what they regarded as a longer process of negotiations.

But a U.S. nuclear expert, David Albright, said Mousavian's comments showed the "difficulty of negotiating" with Iran. The agreement sought by the powers in Moscow would be a small but important step which does not solve the Iran nuclear issue, said Albright, of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) think tank. "Iran should expect only a small incentive in return - the fact of the matter is that these actions are equivalent to peanuts for peanuts," Albright said in an email. Mousavian said, however, that Iran was ready for confidence-building measures regarding its enrichment of uranium to 20 percent, which it started in 2010 and has since expanded. He said his own proposal was that Iran would agree to eliminate such material from its stockpile, either by converting it to fuel, exporting it or lowering its enrichment concentration to 3.5 percent - the level usually required for power plants.

 

Syrian activists warn of dire conditions in Homs

By BASSEM MROUE | Associated Press (AP) — Syrian troops intensified shelling of rebel-held neighborhoods in central Homs Sunday, according to activists who say humanitarian conditions are growing more dire and are pressing for the evacuation of 1,000 endangered families and dozens of wounded people who can't get adequate medical care.

Homs has been under siege for a week, part of a major escalation of violence around the country that forced the 300-strong U.N. observer force in Syria to call off its patrols.

"The humanitarian situation in Homs is very difficult," said Rami Abdul-Rahman, who heads the British-based activist group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights Observatory. "It is very clear that the army wants to retake Homs."

The Observatory asked the U.N. on Saturday to intervene in the violence in Homs and evacuate more than 1,000 families, including women and children, whose lives are in danger. It also said dozens of wounded people in rebel-controlled areas cannot get medicine or doctors to treat them.

Maj. Gen. Robert Mood, the chief of the observer mission in Syria, said Saturday that intensifying clashes over the past 10 days were "posing significant risks" to the unarmed observers who were spread out across the country, and impeding their ability to carry out their mandate. The observers' decision came after weeks of escalating attacks, including reports of several mass killings that have left dozens dead.

The observers have been the only working part of a peace plan brokered by international envoy Kofi Annan, which the international community sees as its only hope to stop the bloodshed. The plan called for the foreign monitors to check compliance with a cease-fire that was supposed to go into effect on April 12, but they have become the most independent witnesses to the carnage on both sides as government and rebel forces have largely ignored the truce.

The statement calling off observer patrols reinforced fears that Syria is sliding ever closer to civil war 15 months after the rebellion to oust Syrian President Bashar Assad began. Opposition groups say more than 14,000 civilians and rebels have been killed since the uprising began in March 2011. In Turkey, the leader of Syria's main opposition group, Abdulbaset Sieda, said in a speech that the suspension of the observers' activities shows that "the international community has given up hope on this regime that is in its last days." He added that Assad's government has lost control over many large areas and "it's now suffering from confusion and committing more crimes as revenge."

"The international community must bear its ... responsibilities to take decisive decisions through the (U.N.) Security Council under Chapter 7 to protect civilians," said Sieda. A Chapter 7 resolution authorizes actions to enforce that can ultimately include the use of military force, which U.S. administration and European officials — for now — are playing down as a possibility.

The Syrian government has been waging a fierce offensive through towns and villages nationwide for the past week, trying to pound out rebels by shelling urban areas with tanks and attack helicopters. Rebels also have attacked Syrian forces, mostly trying to burn out their tanks. Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague said that the development only underscores the need for the international community urgently to come together to compel the regime to meet its commitments. "The United Nations Security Council will be considering its options including for the future of the U.N. Mission to Syria in light of a briefing from Major-General Mood on Tuesday," he said in a statement. The U.S. reiterated its call for the Assad regime to comply with the plan, "including the full implementation of a cease-fire."

The Syrian government said it had informed Mood it understood the U.N. observers' decision and blamed rebels for the escalation in fighting.

The Observatory and the Local Coordination Committees, another activist group, said the shelling in Homs killed at least one person. Activists say the city's rebel-held areas have been under intense shelling and ground attacks for a week. The LCC and the Observatory also reported intense clashes between rebels and troops in the Damascus suburb of Mleiha. The LCC said four people from both sides were killed in the fighting. Rebels also attacked an army checkpoint in central Hama province killing at least three soldiers, the Observatory said. Both groups also reported violence in the northern provinces of Idlib and Aleppo as well as the eastern region of Deir el-Zour and the southern province of Daraa. The LCC said at least 20 people were killed Sunday while the Observatory put the number at 14. Syria's state-run news agency SANA said troops battled late Saturday with infiltrators from Lebanon killing six and wounding four of them. It added that Syrian forces also foiled an infiltration attempt from Turkey into the northern province of Idlib. Syrian authorities say that weapons are being smuggled to rebels from neighboring countries.

 

Russia flies anti-air, anti-ship missiles to Assad as its fleet heads to Tartus

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 17, 2012,

Moscow is using the time up until Russian President Vladimir Putin faces US President Barack Obama across the G20 conference table in Los Cabos, Mexico Sunday, June 17 - or in its corridors - to ship sophisticated arms to Syria able to prevent a no-fly zone and a fleet of warships to the Mediterranean port of Tartus. While Pentagon sources Friday disclosed the approach of a “small contingent” of Russian warships to Tartus, debkafile’s military and intelligence sources have discovered that heading for the Russian base at this Syrian port is a Russian fleet that includes Ropucha-toad or Project 775 class landing-craft carrying Russian marines. Each craft can carry 250 marine personnel and 500-ton armored vehicles. And flying overhead are Russian air transports that are touching down at Syrian air bases bearing, according to our sources, a variety of sophisticated munitions for the Syrian army: advanced Russian Pantsyr-S1 anti-air missiles capable of hitting fighter-bombers flying at an altitude of 12 kilometers and cruise missiles; self-propelled medium range anti-air Buk-M2 missiles (NATO codenamed SA-11). They are capable of downing aircraft flying at an altitude of 14 kilometers and Mach 32 speed; and shore-based Bastion anti-ship missiles which can reach vessels sailing 300 kilometers out to sea.

Russia is, in a word, supplying Bashar Assad, his regime and his army, with the very weapons they may need for warding off Western and Arab air efforts to impose a no-fly zone over Syria, while at the same time enabling him to repel seaborne assaults by his foes from the Mediterranean.

Since Syrian units have not been trained in the use of these advanced weapons, they are mostly likely coming with Russian technical teams to operate them - although they would be presented as “instructors.”

The Russians are not trying to conceal their military intervention in Syria in support of the Assad regime. Friday, June 16, Anatoly P. Isaykin, director of Rosoboronexport (the Russian state arms export authority) said quite openly: I would like to say these mechanisms are really good means of defense, a reliable defense against attacks from air or sea. This is not a threat, but whoever is planning an attack should think about this.” The next day, Saturday, a source in the Russian General Staff told the Itar-Tass government news agency, “Several warships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, including large landing ships with marines aboard, are fully prepared to take to the sea in case it is necessary to protect the Russian logistics base in Tartus, Syria, since it is a zone of the Fleet’s responsibility.”

debkafile’s sources in Washington, Moscow and the Persian Gulf expect the Russian and US presidents to get together in the course of the G20 summit for a meeting that will determine whether or not the US and its European and Arab allies go forward with their planned military intervention in Syria. Agreement between the two presidents on their Syria and Iran policies could arrest this plan, whereas their failure to agree would quicken its pace.

 

Syria rebels more organised as insurgency grows

By Serene Assir | AFP – Sat, Jun 16, 2012..

The rebel Free Syrian Army has grown from a rag-tag force into a popular guerrilla insurgency buoyed by civilian fighters who still lack weapons and structure to defeat the regime, experts and rebels say.

Over the past months more and more civilians have volunteered to take up arms alongside army deserters against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as deadly violence escalates across the country. "The Syrian army has one million men in reserve, civilians with military training, and many of them are joining the revolt now," said Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA). According to the Dubai-based Kahwaji, the FSA has "thousands" of members across Syria and is growing in both capacity and coordination. "They have become more organised," he told AFP. The FSA announced in March the formation of a military council grouping rebel chiefs and chaired by Syria's most senior army deserter, General Mustafa al-Sheikh.

While Turkey-based Colonel Riad al-Assaad, one of the first officers to defect, officially leads the FSA, in practice operations are planned and executed at a grassroots level, independently from any exiled leaders, Kahwaji said. Over the past months more efforts has been made to shore up the rag-tag rebel army into a more cohesive force, activists say.

"Small groups of armed rebels with no communication with other units are being replaced by larger umbrella squadrons to better organise the insurgency," said Damascus-based activist Ahmad al-Khatib.

Thus fighters from key rebel bastions have been grouped together under one commander each, added Khatib, who participates in efforts to unite the FSA and encourage defections. "There is no unified leadership, but now units in different parts of Syria are communicating with each other," he told AFP via Skype. "The more coordinated the FSA, the more effective it becomes, and the better the support its fighters are given by civilian opponents to the regime." For Kahwaji the FSA is a "popular army, which enjoys the increasingly broad support of the Syrian population."

But he admitted that the rebel fighters are ill-equipped with only medium and light weapons that are no match for the firepower, tanks and helicopters available to the Syrian army.

"The FSA fighters are not well armed, but the population feeds them and gives them cover," he said. The rebels are "operating in a hospitable environment" unlike the regular army which is faced with "hostility." Support from the civilian population may help keep morale up for the rebels but they, too, recognise their shortcomings. "Every day of resistance is a success, but Assad's army remains superior," said Nasser Nahhar, a rebel unit commander operating around the restive Baba Amr neighbourhood of the flashpoint central city of Homs. "The Syrian army has tanks and helicopters, whereas we have light weapons. If it weren't for that, we would have won already," he told AFP via Skype.

According to Nahhar, what begun as a peaceful uprising against a ruthless dictatorship turned into an armed struggle with "the majority of anti-regime fighters now being civilians." "We wanted to take down the regime peacefully, but it was impossible," said the well-spoken civilian-turned-rebel commander in his late 20s. "The only way to defeat the regime now is militarily." As deadly violence escalates across Syria, the FSA has opted for new tactics drawing from a history of guerrilla warfare to make up for its equipment shortcomings. "The FSA's main goal right how is to try and harass the army to the point of fatigue," said Elias Hanna, a Lebanese ex-military officer and professor of geopolitics at the American University of Beirut. "The more we exhaust the regular troops, the more we weaken their morale and force defections," he added. But Hanna warned that the rebels "cannot go on like this much longer" and described them "an army on the run."

"Without a clear regional decision to provide the FSA with the means it needs to continue fighting -- such as safe routes and a base -- the rebels cannot take fighting onto the next level," Hanna said. Energy-rich Arab nations like Qatar and Saudi Arabia have repeatedly called for arming the Syrian rebels but Western powers are still resisting any military intervention in the 16-month crisis.

And while the rebels initially hoped for a speedy intervention, Nahhar explained that the prime choice now is to rely on hit-and-run tactics. "We don't need to win, we just need the army to lose," he said.

 

Anxiety as Egypt's presidency vote nears end

By Marwa Awad and Tom Pfeiffer | Reuters –

CAIRO (Reuters) - Egyptians were electing a president freely for the first time on Sunday, making a daunting choice between a former general of the old guard and an Islamist who says he is running for God.

Many were perplexed and fearful of the future and signs were that, as in last month's first round, millions would not vote. The contest, pitting Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister Ahmed Shafik against Mohamed Morsy of the Muslim Brotherhood, the veteran Islamist movement, is supposed to seal a democratic transition that began with Mubarak's overthrow 16 months ago.

But concern over a backlash among the disappointed losers saw the Interior Ministry put forces on alert across the country for the end of two days of voting at 10 p.m. (2000 GMT).

"We have to vote because these elections are historic," said Amr Omar, voting in Cairo, who called himself an activist of the youth revolution. Reluctantly putting aside misgivings about the Brotherhood's religious agenda, he said: "I will vote for Morsy.

"Even if it means electing the hypocritical Islamists, we must break the vicious cycle of Mubarak's police state."

But many other Egyptians, weary of political turmoil and the economic crisis it has brought, believe Shafik has the backing of the "deep state" - entrenched interests from the military to big business - and so may be better placed to bring prosperity.

Privately, officials from both camps suggested Shafik had edged ahead with two hours of voting still ahead. After a baking hot day, many people preferred to cast ballots after dark.

The election comes amid a constitutional crisis and a stand-off between the ruling generals and the Brotherhood, which emerged from decades of repression under Mubarak and previous military leaders to sweep the parliamentary vote. Those gains crumbled last week when senior judges, appointed under Mubarak, ruled that election void and the ruling military council dissolved parliament - a move met with only a muted reaction from many, who felt the Brotherhood had pushed its own particular interests too hard over the past few months.Even the powers of the new president are unclear, though the military council was reported to be ready to award him some by decree this week - once it knows who the head of state will be.

OUTCOME UNCERTAIN

Egyptians massed in their millions against Mubarak in January last year in the hope that his removal would end poverty, corruption and police brutality. Many now seem tired of the social turmoil and political bickering that ensued. "Egypt writes the closing chapter of the Arab Spring," read a headline on Sunday in independent newspaper al-Watan, which said the election offers a "choice between a military man who aborted the revolution and a Muslim Brother who wasted it". The majority who voted for neither Shafik nor Morsy in a first round presidential vote last month now face what they see as a stale contest between a military establishment and its perennial foe which smothers hopes for a change for the better. Many Egyptians may be staying away. But a sample of voter comments to Reuters near polling stations suggest many had put aside doubts about Shafik, whose campaign has gained momentum since he entered the race a few months ago as an outsider.

Waleed Mohamed, 35, voting in Cairo, said he chose Shafik, while his wife Hind Adel, wearing the full face-veil worn by some pious Muslims, has opted for Morsy. "That's democracy for you," she said. "Everyone has their opinion ... No one knows who will win. God knows." Monitors said they had seen only minor and scattered breaches of election rules by Sunday morning but not the kind of systematic fraud that tainted elections under Mubarak, despite mutual accusations of irregularities by the rival camps. Monitors and vote officials said turnout seemed lower on Saturday and Sunday than in the first round ballot but said many people would arrive later on Sunday when the summer heat has abated. Voting concludes at 10 p.m. (2000 GMT), following a last-minute extension to deal with expectations of late voting. A win for Shafik, 70, who says he has learned the lessons of the revolt and now offers security, prosperity and religious tolerance, may prompt street protests by the Islamists and some of the disillusioned urban youths who made Cairo's Tahrir Square their battleground last year.

UNEVEN OUTCOMES

Morsy has the backing of a movement forged by decades of clandestine struggle and from Egyptians who have put aside qualms about Islamic rule to block a return of the old regime.

Many see Shafik as the front man of a murky establishment determined to re-assert the power it wielded for six decades.

"Army rule is represented by Bashar al-Assad in Syria and represented in Egypt by Ahmed Shafik," said Amr Reda, an international law professor voting in Cairo for Morsy.

"We have had enough of military rule."Morsy has failed to rally much public support from candidates who lost in the first round. To critics of the Brotherhood, it confirmed that the Islamist movement was too zealous and inflexible to represent all Egyptians. "I will vote Shafik because I don't want anybody to impose on me a model of life that I don't accept," said health ministry employee Marianne Mallak, 29, voting in Alexandria. "I don't want somebody to rule the country in the name of religion."Egypt's 10-percent Christian minority has come out strongly for Shafik, fearing religious oppression in an Islamist state.

Should Morsy prevail, he may be frustrated by an uncooperative military elite, for all the generals' pledges to cede power by July 1.

The military rulers ordered the dissolution of parliament, in line with last week's court ruling, an official said on Saturday. The decision enraged the Muslim Brotherhood, which said parliament could only be dissolved by popular referendum. Dissolving the assembly "represents a coup against the whole democratic process", the group said on the Facebook page of its Freedom and Justice Party (FJP).

On Sunday, state-run Al-Ahram newspaper's website said the military would also issue a constitutional declaration within 48 hours to outline the president's powers, including appointing officials, calling parliamentary elections and outlining new rules for appointing an assembly to draft a new constitution. Senior Brotherhood official Mahmoud Ghozlan, speaking to Al Ahram's website, said the ruling military council did not have the right to issue a constitutional declaration or make rules on how the constituent assembly should be formed.

SHOWDOWN

The Brotherhood hung back in the early days of the 2011 uprising and has sought to cooperate with the military's gradual shift to civilian rule.

But its gathering showdown with the military leaves Egyptians, Western allies and investors perplexed by the prospect of yet more of the uncertainty that has ravaged the economy and seen sporadic flare-ups in violence. A gunfight killed two in Cairo overnight and 15 were injured, after a dispute between street vendors, a security source said. There was no apparent connection to the vote.

Shafik's supporters insist he and the ruling military council, which took sovereign powers when Mubarak quit, would work in harmony to restore confidence, notably for the vital and ravaged tourist trade. Morsy, they say, would struggle. Egypt's armed forces have built up massive wealth and commercial interests, helped since the 1970s by a close U.S. alliance which followed the decision of the most populous Arab state to make peace with Israel. Many Egyptians say the army, and its leader Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, is just one wing of an entrenched security establishment that has resisted reform and oversight since Mubarak left and would wield influence long after the promised handover to an elected civilian by July 1. "There is no doubt that the state in all its institutions - judicial, military, interior, foreign and financial - back Shafik for president and are working to that end," said Hassan Nafaa, a politics professor who campaigned against Mubarak.

"It is very difficult to eradicate this spirit of Mubarak."

(Reporting by Edmund Blair, Yasmine Saleh, Dina Zayed, Tom Perry, Tamim Elyan; Writing by Tom Pfeiffer; Editing by Samia Nakhoul and Alastair Macdonald)

 

U.S. may have less Mideast clout, uses it with care

 June 17, 2012/By Arshad Mohammed /Daily Star

 WASHINGTON: Events in Egypt, Bahrain and Syria illustrate the limits of U.S. influence in the Middle East following the Arab Spring and a U.S. reluctance, at times, to exercise such clout as it has. Court rulings in Egypt and in Bahrain this week, analysts say, show the ruling authorities' desire to maintain their grip on power and the United States' limited ability to shape events despite its general support for democracy. After decades in which Washington has been the region's dominant outside player, deploying its military to guarantee the flow of oil and its diplomatic muscle to advance peace between Israel and its Arab neighbours, the pro-democracy demonstrations of the Arab Spring appear to have changed the equation.

President Barack Obama's early hopes of brokering an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal have foundered. And U.S. blunders in Iraq, where violence persists nine years after a U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein, have also eroded U.S. credibility, Middle East analysts said. "When questions become ones of life and death, people are less interested in what the United States has to say," said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.

"We have had a long relationship with the Egyptian military and when it comes to existential issues, they will listen politely but they strongly believe that they understand both their population and their national interest better than well-meaning Americans," Alterman added. Egypt's supreme court ruled on Thursday to dissolve the newly-elected parliament that is dominated by the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood and to allow ousted leader Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister to run in this weekend's presidential race. The rulings are widely viewed as an effort by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the military authorities who have ruled the country since Mubarak's February 11, 2011 ouster, to undercut the Brotherhood and to strengthen its own hand.

In Bahrain, an important U.S. ally in the Gulf that hosts the U.S. Fifth Fleet, a court reduced sentences against nine medical professionals and acquitted nine others but the United States said it was "deeply disappointed" by the verdict and suggested that those involved were punished because of their political views. The doctors and nurses, all Shi'ite, say they were victimized for treating protesters against Bahrain's ruling Sunni family, which backed by Saudi-led Gulf troops, crushed a protest movement led by the Shi'ite majority last year. And in Syria, having for now ruled out a military intervention without international support, the United States has been unable to stop Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's brutal crackdown on anti-government protests.

The United Nations says Syrian forces have killed 10,000 people in a crackdown on protest against Assad's rule. A U.N. monitoring mission, whose presence the United States hoped might help quell the strife, on Saturday suspended its operations. It is unclear what Washington plans to do to try to end the conflict given Russian reluctance to see Assad ousted. The State Department on Friday said that it was troubled by the Egyptian supreme court's ruling, it wanted new parliamentary elections to be conducted quickly, and the SCAF should turn over power on July 1 after a free and fair presidential election. Egypt's military has promised to hand over power by July 1 following this weekend's second round of the presidential election that pits the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsy against former general Ahmed Shafik, a Mubarak protégé.

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta called Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, who leads the SCAF, on Friday and stressed "the need to ensure a full and peaceful transition to democracy," the Pentagon said.

Tantawi repeated the military's commitment to hold free and fair presidential election and to turn over power to a democratically elected government on July 1, the Pentagon said.

Michele Dunne, a Middle East analyst at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, argued that the United States has influence on Egypt because of the large U.S. aid flows, notably to the Egyptian military, but has elected not to exercise it. On March 23, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton released $1.3 billion in annual military aid for Egypt despite Cairo's failure to meet pro-democracy goals, saying U.S. national security required the continued military assistance.

"The United States had leverage to exert; it chose not to," Dunne said. "Influence is only influence if you choose to exert it."

Egypt has long been among the top recipients of U.S. aid, which began flowing in substantial sums after it became the first Arab nation to sign a peace agreement with Israel in 1979, regarding the money as an investment in regional security. The United States gave roughly $2 billion or more annually for 25 years after the peace agreement, most of it for the military. That figure has drifted down to hold steady at around $1.55 billion in recent years. Tamara Cofman Wittes, a former State Department official now director of the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy, said the United States has leverage in Egypt because of its aid, which could be cut next year, and in Bahrain because of the ruling family's sensitivity to U.S. criticism.

"That's the big difference between Egypt and Bahrain on the one hand and Syria on the other," she said. "There were times when the U.S. government thought its words, in public and in private, might have some impact on ... Bashar al-Assad. "We are clearly not at that point any more. Bashar al-Assad clearly doesn't care what the United States thinks anymore and therefore the rhetoric doesn't matter," she said. The U.S. strategy on Syria for now appears to hinge on persuading Russia, a long-time ally and arms supplier to Syria which maintains a naval base at Syria's Mediterranean port of Tartus, to take a harder stand toward Assad.

So far, this has not worked.

Marina Ottaway, a Middle East analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank, suggested that there may be some tension within the Obama administration because of its desire to support democracy in the Middle East but its hesitance to see Islamist parties coming to power.

"I think they are probably very ambivalent about this. They were certainly not thrilled at the way things were going in terms of the influence of the Islamists," Ottaway said.