LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 14/2012

Bible Quotation for today/A Lamp under a Bowl
Luke 08/16-18: "No one lights a lamp and covers it with a bowl or puts it under a bed. Instead, it is put on the lampstand, so that people will see the light as they come in. Whatever is hidden away will be brought out into the open, and whatever is covered up will be found and brought to light. Be careful, then, how you listen; because those who have something will be given more, but whoever has nothing will have taken away from them even the little they think they have"

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Voters in Lebanon, expect no change/By: Michael Young/January 13/12 
Assad finds his margin to maneuver/By: Tony Badran/January 13/12 
Delusional waffle/Now Lebanon/ January 13/12 
The Ayatollah and the Pearl Harbor moment/By Amir Taher/January 13/12 
Syria…do you want to laugh/By Tariq Alhomayed/January 13/12 

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 13/12 
Hezbollah suspect arrested in Bangkok security scare: Official
Thailand authorities arrest terror suspect following warning from Israeli embassy
Hezbollah Denies Thailand Arrested One of its Operatives
U.S. Warns of Possible Terrorist Threat in Bangkok
Body of Lebanese woman repatriated from Israel
US stations two aircraft carriers opposite Iran, 15,000 troops in Kuwait
Alleged Russia arms ship docks in Syria despite vow to change course
Israeli, Palestinian delegates to meet for third round of direct talks
Obama secretly warns Iran against closing Strait of Hormuz, report says
Amir Oren / Israel's cease-and-desist policy vs. Iran – for now
Ahmadinejad: Ties between Cuba, Iran unbreakable
Peres: Israel wasn't involved in Tehran hit
Report: Iran agrees to discuss nuclear weapons charges
Lebanon's Arabic press digest - Jan. 13, 2012
Accused Israeli spy not linked with Ogero suspect: family
Ban arrives in Beirut, meets Sleiman
Ban urges Lebanon to defend itself against terrorism
Ban to test Lebanon’s commitment to U.N.
U.N. Chief is ‘Sure’ Lebanon Will Continue to Respect Commitments to ST
British Diplomat Reportedly Appointed as Special Coordinator but Ban Says Consultations Ongoing
Top U.S. general arrives in Beirut, meets Mikati
League’s Syria mission flounders
Lebanese bank profits down 10.3 pct Jan-Nov
Rai, Hezbollah officials meet
PSP keen to work with Hezbollah to maintain Lebanon stability: Aridi
Ten indicted over plot to kill Hezbollah-linked Sheikh, including wife
Charbel: Army should be on Syria border
U.N. to visit Tehran for nuclear talks Jan. 28
Shock and anger over Marine urination video
Thieves loot donations box at east Lebanon church

Hezbollah suspect arrested in Bangkok security scare: Official
January 13, 2012/ Daily Star
BANGKOK: Thai police were on Friday questioning a Lebanese man with alleged links to Hezbollah militants as the U.S. Embassy warned of a "real and credible" threat of a terrorist attack against American citizens in Bangkok. Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung said Thai authorities received a tip-off before New Year's of a planned attack, which was said to target Israelis.
"At first we were told the Palestinians were behind it but it turned out to be the Hezbollah," he told The Associated Press. He said police detained on Thursday a Lebanese suspect with alleged links to Hezbollah, an avowedly anti-Israel militant group. Thai authorities had been "following two Lebanese men and called in one of them ... for questioning," Chalerm said. "Technically the two men have not committed any crimes under the Thai law, so we could only use the immigration law to keep this one suspect in custody," he said. Chalerm spoke hours after the U.S. Embassy in Bangkok sent an "emergency message" to American citizens earlier Friday warning of a possible terrorist attack. The message said that "foreign terrorists may be currently looking to conduct attacks against tourist areas in Bangkok in the near future." It urged Americans to "keep a low profile" in public and to exercise caution in areas where Western tourists gather. The statement gave no other details. Ambassador Kristie Kenney told the AP the threat was "real and very credible." She didn't give any other information. It was the first U.S. warning of a foreign terror attack in Bangkok in recent memory.
Chalerm said the danger has passed. "I want to confirm and I am confident that we have the situation under control. And I can guarantee ... no terrorist attacks will be allowed to take place. If they have disagreement, (they should) go fight somewhere else." Friday's terror warning comes during a period of heightened tension over U.S. and Israeli responses to the prospect that Iran is going forward with developing nuclear weapons. Iran sees possible U.S. complicity in a series of assassinations of its nuclear experts - the latest Wednesday, when scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was killed by a bomb attached to his car by a passing bicyclist.

Hezbollah Denies Thailand Arrested One of its Operatives
by Naharnet/Thai authorities said Friday they had detained a Lebanese man with suspected links to Hizbullah, after the United States warned of a terrorist threat against tourists in the kingdom.
Hizbullah politburo member Ghaleb Abu Zainab denied the arrest.
"Foreign terrorists may be currently looking to conduct attacks against tourist areas in Bangkok in the near future," the U.S. embassy in Bangkok said in an emergency message posted on its website.
"U.S. citizens are urged to exercise caution when visiting public areas where large groups of Western tourists gather in Bangkok."
A Thai senior intelligence officer said that the kingdom had been informed before the New Year by Israel of a possible threat.
The suspect was detained Thursday while another man had already fled the country, he said.
Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung told Agence France Presse by telephone that the detained suspect was being questioned by the Thai authorities.
"We already have one suspect in custody for interrogation at a government building in Bangkok. He is a Hizbullah from Lebanon," he said.
"I want to assure people that there is nothing to worry about. The police will take care of the situation and everything will be under control."
"Israel was suspicious that these two men might be terrorists, so they gave information, including their names, to our police before the New Year," the senior intelligence officer said.
The suspect has denied involvement in any terrorist activities, he added.
"These two men entered Thailand a while ago but did not conduct any terrorist activity. I wonder why Israel was suspicious about them."
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra also told reporters that authorities in the kingdom had the current situation under control.
"I would like to tell our people and tourists that there is nothing to worry about," she said.
"These two men entered Thailand a while ago but did not conduct any terrorist activity. I wonder why Israel was suspicious about them."
Israel would not confirm or deny a role in the arrest.
"Israel does not comment on security issues," foreign ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor said.
Source/Agence France Presse.

Peres: Israel wasn't involved in Tehran hit
In interview with CNN Spanish President says Israel wasn't involved in murder of Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan to the best of his knowledge
Ynet 01.13.12, President Shimon Peres told CNN Spanish that to the best of his knowledge Israel was not involved in the murder of Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan. This was the first response by an Israeli statesman to the allegations that Israel's Mossad was behind the hit.
The president noted it was fashionable to blame the United States and Israel for anything bad that happens in Iran
On Thursday, US President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed recent Iran-related developments, including the international community’s efforts to hold Iran accountable for its failures to meet its international obligations. The White House said that during the phone conversation Obama "reaffirmed his commitment to the goal of a comprehensive and lasting peace in the region."Also Thursday, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on Thursday that those behind the killing of a nuclear scientist in Tehran would be punished.
"This cowardly terror ... has been designed or helped by the intelligence services of CIA and Mossad and shows that the arrogant powers have reached a dead end in the face of the strong Iranian nation," Khamenei added, according to IRNA.
 Japan zigzags on sanctions
Meanwhile, Japan has been sending mixed signals over its support of sanctions against Iran. Japan's finance minister said on Friday there was no confusion over the government's policy of reducing Iranian oil imports in support of US sanctions, although earlier comments from the cabinet's top spokesman suggested Japan was not committed to taking such steps.
Separately, Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba told his French counterpart, Alain Juppe, that sanctions against Iran should be carried out in a way that would not drive up oil prices, and that channels of dialogue should be kept open. On Thursday, Finance Minister Jun Azumi said in a joint news conference with Geithner that Japan would take concrete steps to reduce oil imports from Iran. But a few hours later, Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura said importing less Iranian oil was only one of many opinions on how to deal with the matter.
Reuters contributed to this report

Body of Lebanese woman repatriated from Israel
January 12, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The International Red Cross Thursday repatriated from Israel the body of a Lebanese woman who was killed more than ten days ago, security sources said.The body of the 50-year-old woman, identified as Rosaline Jebran, was transferred to a police station in the southern town of Alma Shab to be prepared for autopsy. After the autopsy, the body is expected to be transferred to her hometown in Rashaya al-Fakhar, western Bekaa, where the family is set to receive the body. Security sources told The Daily Star that Jebran was killed by her husband in Israel after they moved to the Jewish state 11 years ago.

Accused Israeli spy not linked with Ogero suspect: family
January 13, 2012/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: The family of a telecoms engineer accused of being an Israeli spy denied Friday their son has links with a former Lebanese Ogero employee who was charged earlier this week with spying for Israel. “Reports by some media outlets about a common [phone] number between detainee Tarek and Elias Younis ... are baseless,” a statement by Tarek Rabaa’s family said. Rabaa, an engineer with the mobile phone operator Alfa, was arrested by Lebanese authorities in July of 2010 on suspicion of spying for Israel. “No charges have been laid against Tarek,” the family reiterated in its statement. It called on Justice Minister Shakib Qortbawi and Information Minister Walid Daouk to “intervene to protect justice and truth from being manipulated.”Elias Younis, a retired employee with the state-run telecoms operator Ogero, was charged Wednesday with spying for Israel. Another former Ogero employee arrested on suspicion of spying for Israel was released by Lebanese authorities in November 2011 after three months in detention. Lebanon has already charged two employees working for Alfa with spying for Israel.

Thieves loot donations box at east Lebanon church
January 13, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Thieves broke into Mar Mikhail Church in Ablah, east Lebanon, overnight and stole an unknown amount of money, police said Friday.They said the burglars, taking advantage of a snowstorm hitting Lebanon, stole the money from the church’s donation box.Policemen from the Internal Security Forces arrived on the scene and have launched an investigation.

US stations two aircraft carriers opposite Iran, 15,000 troops in Kuwait
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report/January 13, 2012/US President Barack Obama is busy aligning Middle East allies with the next US steps on Iran. Contributing to the mounting sense in Washington of an approaching US-Iranian confrontation, the Pentagon is substantially building up its combat power around Iran, stationing nearly 15,000 troops in Kuwait - two Army infantry brigades and a helicopter unit – and keeping two aircraft carriers the region. The USS Carl Vinson, the USS John Stennis which was to have returned to home base and their strike groups will stay in the Arabian Sea.
Iran is caught up in the same pre-war swirl of activity. Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani spent two days in Ankara this week. But Turkish leaders failed in their bid to sell their good offices as brokers for averting the expected collision between Tehran and the West. Before flying out of Ankara Friday, Jan. 13, Larijani commented: "We have different ways of doing things."
debkafile's Iranian sources quote the Iranian official as telling his hosts that his country is prepared to take on any military aggressors. One of the responses weighed in Tehran to meet the rising military pressure might be an open declaration of Iran as a nuclear power. By accepting a visit by IAEA inspectors on Jan. 28 - to investigate charges that Iran is running a clandestine nuclear bomb program - Tehran may be moving toward that irreversible admission - or possibly its first nuclear test.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly 528 disclosed exclusively on Nov. 25, 2011 that Iran may soon publicize its attainment of a nuclear weapon, a step still being debated intensely at the highest levels of the Islamic regime in Tehran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who will make the ultimate decision, is very much in favor of facing the world as a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic. He calculates that this fait accompli has a good change of warding off a Western and/or Israeli military attack.
Thursday night, Jan. 12, President Obama put in a call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss coordinating US and Israeli moves for a military operation against Iran, which many US media believe to be imminent.
The New York Times wrote Friday under the caption: Dangerous Tension with Iran, "Many officials, experts and commentators increasingly expect some kind of military confrontation."
Obama had similar conversations with other Middle East leaders this week. The Saudi and Qatari foreign ministers, Prince Saud al-Faisal and Sheikh Hamad al-Thani, spent two days on Jan. 10-11 in Washington talking to the US president. The contents of their talks were kept under tight wraps. Friday, British premier David Cameron suddenly turned up in Riyadh for talks with Saudi King Abdullah and Crown Prince Nayef.
Discussions on military preparations centering on Iran inevitably concern the need for urgent action to halt the unending carnage in Syria, Iran's close ally.
Thursday, the Russian National Security Adviser Nikolai Patrushev, one of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's closest advisers, said ominously: "We are receiving information that NATO members and some Persian Gulf States working under the 'Libyan scenario' intend to move from indirect intervention in Syria to direct military intervention."
Moscow has consistently spoken out against any foreign intervention in the Syrian conflict – or even tough UN sanctions.
Russia's NATO ambassador Dmitry Rogozin has suggested more than once that the West would use a military adventure in Syria as the jumping-off point for an attack on Iran.
Another sign that Syria is under the military eye of the West came from an indiscreet comment Israel's Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz made Tuesday, Jan. 10 in a briefing to a Knesset panel. Israel, he said, is preparing to absorb members of Bashar Assad's Alawite sect after his downfall.
He later detracted his words. debkafile disclose that the context of the general's comment was Israeli preparations to establish a buffer zone on the Syrian side of the Golan border to shelter Alawites fleeing the vengeance of their compatriots.
Turkey too has gone back to talking about setting up in northern Syria a Turkish buffer zone for refugees and anti-Assad dissidents.
Further fueling the war scare, two helmeted bombers on a motorbike assassinated the Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan, deputy director of the Natanz uranium enrichment center, in central Tehran Wednesday. Friday, Ayatollah Khamenei accused the United States and Israel of a CIA-Mossad master plan, which Iranian sources claimed bore the title "Red Windows" and focused on training Iranian dissidents for hit and sabotage operations in Iran

Ban urges Lebanon to defend itself against terrorism
January 13, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged Lebanon to defend itself against terrorism and called on Israel to immediately stop its daily violations of Lebanese airspace. Ban was quoted in Lebanese newspaper An-Nahar as urging Lebanon to take measures to protect itself against terrorism, in an interview published Friday.
He hailed as very good work done by the Lebanese Army and Internal Security Forces in combating terrorism.
Israeli warplanes violate Lebanese airspace on almost daily basis in what the Jewish state says are reconnaissance missions.
Ban also called on Israel to immediately end violations of Lebanese sovereignty and of resolution 1701, which he said had created a new strategic environment that should be put in force to reach a permanent ceasefire. He also expressed his hope that Syria cooperate on the border demarcation issue, to enable Lebanon to control its border in line with U.N. resolution 1680. Resolution 1680, adopted in 2006, encouraged Syria to respond positively to Lebanon's request to delineate borders and establish diplomatic relations, with the purpose of asserting Lebanon's sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence.
Ban arrives in Beirut Friday for talks with Lebanese leaders likely to center on divisive issues such as the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, the 10-month unrest in Syria, attacks on UNIFIL and the tense Lebanese-Syria border.

Lebanon's Arabic press digest - Jan. 13, 2012
January 13, 2012/The Daily Star
Following are summaries of some of the main stories in a selection of Lebanese newspapers Friday. The Daily Star cannot vouch for the accuracy of these reports.
Al-Mustaqbal
Lebanon to inform Ban of its commitment to UN resolutions ... Europeans raise issue of protecting displaced Syrians
Workers’ interest remains prisoner of labor minister’s stubbornness
Labor Minister Charbel Nahhas remained adamant Thursday on his pay hike proposal, demolishing workers’ interests.
Sources following up on the wage hike subject told Al-Mustaqbal that despite all the hubbub caused by Nahhas for deliberately hampering the pay hike deal reached during a Cabinet meeting in Baabda and insisting on his proposal, an understanding between Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Najib Mikati and head of the Change and Reform bloc MP Michel Aoun to go along with the Baabda agreement “remains in force.”
Meanwhile, U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon kicks off a visit to Beirut Friday by meeting with Lebanese officials – President Michel Sleiman, Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri – while Hezbollah has openly opposed his visit.
As-Safir
Nahhas to present 3 suggestions to Cabinet Monday
A second meeting of the Price Index Committee to come out with an agreement satisfactory to both sides – Nahhas on one the hand and the General Labor Confederation and the economic committees on the other – has failed.
Instead, it encouraged “haggling” and the ball once again is back in Cabinet’s court.
At the end of the Price Index Committee meeting, Nahhas informed the participants that he would present three suggestions to the Cabinet, including a agreement between the GLC and economic committees and a proposal originally presented by the GLC that calls for raising the minimum wage to LL1,250,000.
Nahhas said he was no longer proposing including the transportation allowances since they are against the law.
Ad-Diyar
Lebanon faces renewed snowstorm
Threats, clashes at Price Index Committee as issue of wages back to Cabinet
The majority of roads in the mountains were buried by snow that fell at an altitude of 800 meters and above. The storm intensified last night and reached the outskirts of the capital, Beirut. The meteorological department said the storm was expected to ease by Friday afternoon only to renew once more Monday morning.
However, the cold weather did not affect preparations for U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon’s visit to Beirut which commences Friday. Ban will hold a news conference at the Phoenicia Hotel this evening after talks with Lebanese officials.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah will deliver a speech following Ban’s conference.
Information made available to Ad-Diyar said that Ban would discuss with Lebanese leaders ongoing Israeli violations as well as the issues of cluster bombs, oil and maritime borders.
Ban will also reportedly meet a delegation from the March 14 coalition under former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora in addition to a number of political leaders.
Lebanese officials were also busy preparing for a visit by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who is due in Beirut Friday.
Al-Liwaa
Cabinet to disappoint Nahhas Monday ... approves consensus-based agreement
Lebanese officials, overwhelmed with diplomatic preparations to welcome U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu Friday, are working behind closed doors to convince MP Michel Aoun to agree to a deal reached jointly by the GLC and the economic committees in a bid to put an end to the crisis over increasing salaries that threatens the Cabinet’s stability as well as to spur demonstrations on the streets.
Information made available to Al-Liwaa said Aoun has become convinced that it is no longer possible to move against the tide.
Sources expect Cabinet’s meeting Monday to be different than the previous session held on Dec. 21 when the majority voted for Labor Minister Charbel Nahhas’ wage hike proposal.

Syria…do you want to laugh?
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
Certainly, the Arab citizen was in dire need of some laughter, and then the following news item appeared: The Sudanese President, Omar al-Bashir, said that his country has close ties to the Syrian regime, but “these relations do not prevent Khartoum from expressing its views…and we are talking about the necessity of reform in Syria”.
Thus President Omar al-Bashir urged Bashar al-Assad about the need for reform, and he went further to say that “stability in Syria and its security in relation to Sudan is vital, but this can only be realized through a government that is linked to its base [lit. al-Qaeda in Arabic]”. Of course, by mentioning “base” here al-Bashir was not talking about the al-Qaeda organization, but rather the citizens and the people, yet this statement was issued by a president who came to power via a military coup. Al-Bashir has spent over two decades in power, and Sudan has been divided during his reign. He is currently being pursued by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, whilst in his country around a million have died as a result of wars and campaigns of suppression, whether in Darfur or elsewhere. Most of his political opponents are either detained, being prosecuted or under threat, yet here he is offering advice to Bashar al-Assad, even demanding reforms and stressing that the Damascus government must stem from the people!
Indeed, the greatest misfortune is the one that makes you laugh, and I cannot think of a place in the world where there are as many tragic comedies as in our region. What was particularly depressing, and funny, both in equal measure, was when the Sudanese President said: “We are [present] in Syria, through the Commission observers to convey the reality of the situation and we are definitely with the Syrian people. We want security and stability for Syria, as it is a very important country among the Frontline States”. [By stating he is present in Syria] al-Bashir means he is presiding over the Sudanese General Mustafa al-Dabi’s delegation of Arab observers in Syria, a delegation that recently attended some of the funerals held by the al-Assad regime for those who it claims died from suicide bombings, carried out last Friday in Damascus, attacks which the Syrian opposition claims were organized by the regime itself. If the main task of the Arab observers is not to stop the killings and protect the civilians, and they – i.e. the observers – are not required to make any statements from within Syria, then is the core of their work to serve the al-Assad regime? Is the presidency of this Arab delegation something to be proud of? This is especially as al-Dabi’s team say that the observation mission may be take a long time, he even hinted at years, referring to the missions undertaken by monitoring committees in Sudan, which have continued since 2004 up to this day!
This is both laughable and lamentable, and this is the least that can be said. But God help the unarmed Syrians, so long as the Arab League’s messenger is Khaled Mishal, and the head of the observer delegation is an intelligence officer of the Sudanese President, who is busy lecturing about the need for reform, and the need for the government to stem from the people. This alone is the height of comedy, but no doubt there are just as many tears as there are laughs. Likewise, what is being done with regards to Syria, on the Arab level, makes one feel sad for the state of Arab diplomacy, and especially towards those who have the ability to do something but are standing by watching a crisis plague an Arab country that has been hijacked by Iran, and is being manipulated today by those who have not achieved a single accomplishment in their political lives.
What a shame!

The Ayatollah and the Pearl Harbor moment
By Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat
The United States’ global leadership is “finished” and capitalism is “on the verge of collapse.” The time has come for the Islamic Republic to “lead mankind on a new path”.
This is the message that, this week, Iran’s top two leaders were trying to spread at home and abroad.
Inside Iran, “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei travelled to Qom on his sixth visit in a year, to mobilise the regime’s dwindling clerical base.
Recalling the Prophet’s Ghazavat victories, Khamenei boasted that he was “on the threshold of new Badr and Kheybar moments.”
Thousands of miles away in Caracas, the Venezuelan capital, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was boasting about how Latin America “once the backyard of the American Great Satan” was fast becoming “ the advance post of global revolution” led by Iran.
Commenting on the visit, the daily Kayhan newspaper in Tehran went further: ”Today, Latin America is Iran’s backyard,” it asserted in an editorial Tuesday.
The delusion that the US is about to collapse and that its leadership role will devolve to Iran has become a major theme of Khomeinist propaganda.
It is the centre of discourse in seminars, some attended by professional anti-Americans from Europe and the United States, and a favourite topic for editorials in the state-owned media.
Almost every day, the official news agency features an interview with some “international expert”, from places as far apart as Russia and Bolivia, claiming that the days of the “Great Satan” are numbered.
Perhaps influenced by such “experts”, generals from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) routinely claim that they are looking for an opportunity to “teach America a lesson.”
One effect of this escalation in Khomeinist hubris is the virtual disappearance of Israel from official hate propaganda.
There was a time when “wiping Israel off the map” was the surest way for every scoundrel’s 15 minutes of fame.
Today, Israel is regarded as too insignificant an enemy for the mighty Khomeinist empire. The scoundrels have jumped many rungs higher to talk of wiping the US off the map.
Those officials less affected by hubris, offer a more moderate analysis. Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi, for example, says that, with US on the way out, Iran could share global leadership, notably with China and Russia, forging a “new world order”.
Propagandists disguised as academics are building an industry based on claims that the US has become a “paper tiger” and that anyone with an ounce of courage could twist its tail with impunity.
Papers are published on how the US, under President Barrack Obama, “ran away” from Iraq and is preparing to “run away” from Afghanistan. Much is made of the fact that Obama wrote letters to Khamenei without getting a reply.
By any account, the US does have the wherewithal to defend its interests. It is spending over $700 billion, almost as much as the entire Iranian gross national product (GDP), on defence. The American military expenditure is double the total expenditure of China, Russia, India, Japan, Brazil, France and the United Kingdom.
The US has the world’s only blue-water navy capable of operating in all oceans. (Last week, it was the US navy, not the IRGC’s world-conquering boats, which freed the captured Iranian fishermen held by Somali pirates for months.)
The small portion of the United States’ air and naval assets concentrated around Iran and nearby regions provide many times more firepower than the “Supreme Guide” could muster.
For Iran, provoking a military clash with the US is a bad bargain, to say the least.
The assumption that the US is “finished” as a major power is equally wrong.
Whatever happens, the US is the world’s third largest country in terms of territory and population. It is also the world’s biggest economy with a GDP of around $15 trillion, almost a quarter of total global GDP.
Whilst economic and military power helped build America's leadership position, that position is not the fruit of raw power alone. For more than a century, to different people across the globe, the US has been a cultural and political magnet of unique pull.
There are no Americans who wish to immigrate to Iran; but go to the American consulates in Dubai or Istanbul and you will see lines of American visa-seekers going round the blocks.
Americans are not rushing to buy the Iranian rial that has lost 50 per cent of its value against the dollar in the past few month.
Before the mullahs seized power one US dollar was exchanged for 70 Iranian rials. Last week, the dollar was worth 18,000 rials, whilst Iranians were queuing to buy the greenback.
Building strategy on crude anti-Americanism is both unwise and ultimately self-defeating. The course of history is strewn with the debris of anti-American dreams. In his time, Hitler forecast “the end of America” and the advent of “global Aryan leadership”. Japanese militarists sung from their own “end of America” hymn-sheets and Stalin and his successors degenerated Marxism into a crude anti-American cult. Mao Zedong was the original inventor of the term “paper tiger”, to describe America. More vulgar despots such as Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi also used anti-Americanism.
The Khomeinist version is more out of place because, as a people, Iranians are not anti-American. For decades, every opinion poll has shown that the US is more popular in Iran than it is in France or even Great Britain.
Using the delusion that the US is no longer willing to defend its interests and the interests of its allies, bellicose factions urge a military clash with the «Great Satan”. IRGC’s threat to close the Hormuz Strait was a deliberate provocation.
Such moves are dangerous for Iran and could prove deadly for the regime. They could provoke a Pearl Harbor moment rather than a Badr or Kheybar one, forcing a reluctant American public to support military action against Iran. Ideologically bankrupt, Khamenei may be pushing Iran to war.

Voters, expect no change!
Michael Young, January 13, 2012
Now Lebanon/A picture taken on June 4, 2009 shows a Lebanese government employee casting his ballot at a polling station in Baabda. (AFP/JOSEPH BARRAK)
Here’s a bet I will make with anyone. The law governing Lebanon’s 2013 parliamentary elections will essentially be the 2009 law.
It’s an easy prediction to make, you say. You would be right. But judging from all the noise this week, as Interior Minister Marwan Charbel organized a conference at the Phoenicia Hotel to discuss his draft proposal for a new law, in coordination with the United Nations Development Program, you would imagine the contrary.
Last October, Charbel presented the outline of a draft law that would allocate seats on the basis of proportional representation. The size of electoral districts has yet to be decided and Charbel’s proposal offers several options. Ultimately, the government and parliament will decide. However, a vast majority of parliamentarians are members of blocs with absolutely no interest in altering the status quo. And the last thing they will endorse is proportional representation, which would allow minorities in the districts they dominate to win seats.
Let’s take as a given that they will find a way to derail proportional representation. The best way to do so is to simply avoid reaching agreement over it. This the blocs will do indirectly, not by rejecting proportionality, as this may be unpopular, but by failing to settle over the size of electoral districts, or some other aspect of the draft law. We saw hints of this direction at the Phoenicia conference, where considerable criticism was leveled at Charbel’s scheme.
Having undermined proportional representation, the leading political forces will then reimpose the current electoral districts. While it’s true that some parties would prevail under different districting, others would not. For a broad consensus to be reached in parliament, everyone needs to be satisfied. That’s why there is a better than even chance that the districts will not change.
Let’s see why. Start with Baabda, Jezzine, Bint Jbeil, Nabatiyeh, Zahrani, Tyre, Marjayoun-Hasbayya, and Baalbek-Hermel. In all these districts, Hezbollah, Amal, the Aounists, or some combination thereof, have a headlock on seats. Michel Aoun has no impetus to agree to a district larger than the qada, since it ensures that he will do well in Jezzine and Baabda; Hezbollah will not challenge this, even if it can fare just as well in a larger constituency. Amal will go along with both, since it has no latitude to compete with Hezbollah.
Walid Jumblatt, too, approves of the current law. He accepts that Hezbollah and Aoun will select the Druze candidate in Baabda, but the 2009 law still means he can control Aley and the Shouf. Jumblatt’s Druze candidate in the West Beqaa, Wael Abu Faour, and in Beirut, Ghazi Aridi, rely on Sunni votes, while Sunnis make up a third of the Shouf electorate. That means that between now and election time the Druze leader must reconcile with Saad Hariri, who in all probability will form leading lists in the West Beqaa and Beirut.
That reconciliation will have electoral implications. Because Jumblatt cannot afford to be at odds with Hariri before the polls, expect the Druze leader to block all efforts by Aoun or Hezbollah to redraw district lines in Beirut to the former prime minister’s disadvantage.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati and President Michel Sleiman, who together with Jumblatt hold veto power in the government, would also likely oppose such steps, each for his own reasons: Mikati, because he, too, cannot allow his conflict with Hariri to fester, as he must protect his Sunni bona fides and seeks to avoid a bruising electoral contest in Tripoli; and Sleiman, because he doesn’t want Michel Aoun to benefit from gerrymandering in Beirut, which would aim to unify the Christian and Shia electorates.
Aoun as well cannot wish for better than the 2009 law. He still remains the most powerful Christian in Baabda, the Metn, Kisirwan, and Jbeil. Even if he has lost ground in the popular vote, his March 14 adversaries have arguably lost more, given the recent incoherence of the previous majority and Aoun’s ability to discredit the allies of Saad Hariri by playing on Christian fears of the Sunnis.
Michel al-Murr is not the powerhouse that he once was in the Metn, and has made overtures to the new majority. Aoun’s reliance on the Armenian vote in the district, as well as his support among Shia in Jbeil and Baabda provide him with decisive advantages. In the Kisirwan, a unified opposition to Aoun has yet to emerge, and would have less access to funding than the Aounists.
Finally, Saad Hariri will not abandon the 2009 law either. He should do very well in Beirut, if the districting stays the same, as well as in Tripoli, Akkar, Dinniyeh, Zahleh, and the West Beqaa. In Saida, he may have to deal with that new Salafist emanation, Sheikh Ahmad Assir, which raises numerous questions about how dynamics in the Sunni community will play out, given Hariri’s long absence and the conflict in Syria above all. Will the former prime minister have to include more Islamists on his lists? Will his influence remain intact if his financial woes continue? All interesting questions, but none will make him reconsider the kind of election law that he favors.
A final verdict on an election law will be shaped by events in Syria. That’s why we are unlikely to see consensus on a new law soon. But assume the 2013 election law will be a case of back to the future.
*Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper in Beirut and author of The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle . He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Delusional waffle
January 12, 2012 /Now Lebanon
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad delivered a 15,000-word speech on Tuesday to his supporters at the Damascus University. (Photo by APF/STR)
“First, we cannot carry out internal reform without dealing with facts as they are on the ground, whether we like them or not. We cannot just hang on to a straw in the air. Neither the straw nor the air will carry us. This means falling. Under the pressure of the crisis, some talk about any solution and call for any solution. We shall not give ‘any’ solution. We shall only give ‘solutions.’ Solutions mean that the results are known beforehand. ‘Any solution’ will lead to the abyss.”
Delusional or supremely manipulative? Take you pick. Few of the sentiments in Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s 15,000-word speech delivered on Tuesday to his supporters at the Damascus University, capture so perfectly the nonsense of Assad’s rambling reasons for why his regime has chosen the path of genocide rather than wholesale political reform.
The “facts as they are on the ground,” whether he likes them or not, show that his country is falling apart. After months of procrastination, months of ignoring the insistence of the international community that he stop murdering his people; after nearly three weeks into the catastrophic Arab League mission to assess the level of violence in the country and after a body count that by conservative estimates has exceeded 5,000, he can only resort to the hollow and outdated rhetoric of an era the Arab world is aching to leave behind.
His level of desperation was evident when he sought to link the killing and mayhem that has plagued Syria since March to the creation of Israel and the imperial reshaping of the Middle East. “What is taking place in Syria is part of what has been planned for the region for tens of years, as the dream of partition is still haunting the grandchildren of Sykes–Picot.” This has to be straw-clutching at its most sublime, a cynical attempt to reach deep into the souls of people whose lives have been shaped.
Assad tried to convince his people in the cobweb-ridden idea of Pan-Arabism that his regime was a beacon of Arab unity. “Arabism is a question of civilization, a question of common interests, common will and common religions.” These are fine words but in the last 40 years, his regime has operated outside this stirring narrative. He talks of “diversity” and “common interests” but the reality is that he, like his father before him, has created a system more akin to organized crime than that inspired by Pericles.
How else does one explain the recent car bombs in Damascus and Wednesday’s death of a French TV reporter? The regime thinks by creating a sense of chaos, the world will take its side. Assad talks of foreign intervention and of terrorist mayhem. He even warns of the apocalyptic repercussions should his rock solid regime fall. But why should the Arab Spring not be a genuine awakening? It is one thing to protect a popular bona fide democracy with genuine political freedoms, transparency and human rights from any destabilizing elements. But Assad, in delivering his colorful speech, has clearly forgotten (it has, after all, been 40 years since his father seized power) that his country has suffered under the yoke of his family’s absolute rule, corruption and repression for too long. He has become the most destabilizing element of all.
The Arab League has done its bit but has found itself wanting. Indeed, there is a body of opinion that questions if the Arab league is in fact the proper body to hand out lessons in human rights, an argument raised by Assad in his Tuesday speech. “Imagine these countries that want to advise us about democracy! Where were these countries at that time? Their status is like the status of a smoking doctor who advises the patient to quit smoking while putting a cigarette in his mouth.”
It has done more than it ever has in its short history, but it is now time to cede the Syrian crisis to the UN, which must take a firm lead in ensuring that its already fragile reputation is not sullied further by its lack of action on what is rapidly turning into a humanitarian disaster.
Those Syrian people who have decided to forgo sectarianism and self interest in the name of freedom, care not one jot for the illusion that is Arabism; for Syria’s equally mythical lead in taking the fight to the Zionist enemy; Assad’s laughable paternal metaphors – “The state is like the mother who opens the way for her children to be the best every day in order to maintain security and avoid bloodshed” – nor his caution that reform is a defenseless “straw in the air.” They want freedom and they want an end to four decades of tyranny. They want a country and they want self-determination. How that self-determination eventually manifests itself is not for Assad to decide. His time is over. His departure cannot come soon enough.


Assad finds his margin to maneuver
Tony Badran /Now Lebanon/ January 12, 2012
One of the more curious things about Bashar al-Assad’s latest rambling speech on Tuesday was his aggressive and typically condescending attack against his Gulf Arab foes. Coming 10 days before the Arab League monitoring mission is due to file its report, the timing of the Syrian dictator’s tirade was noteworthy. It seems that Assad, recognizing the divisions within the League’s ranks, estimated that the Arab body is paralyzed to move against him. With the international community equally immobilized, Assad is convinced he has a margin to maneuver.
What has allowed for Assad’s triumphalist posturing has been Russia’s unwavering support at the UN Security Council. With Moscow’s help, Assad succeeded in freezing the earlier momentum of the Arab camp, spearheaded by Qatar, which had been pushing to refer the Syrian case to the Security Council. Furthermore, having exacerbated Arab divisions by agreeing to the monitor mission, Assad is confident that there will be no consensus at the League to push for international action.
The Obama administration, meanwhile, is waiting for the monitors’ report before determining how to proceed. Leaks have emerged about the options the administration is mulling, and those continue to revolve mainly around plans for a strong Security Council resolution. However, this option remains unlikely in the near future, given the likelihood of continued Russian resistance. In other words, there seems to be nothing drastic on the horizon that would change the existing dynamic in Syria.
What has been remarkable about the administration’s policy is its apparent failure to anticipate the current quandary. In looking for the Arab League to assume leadership, Washington badly misread Arab dynamics. In that sense, betting so much on the Arab initiative was effectively a self-laid trap, of which Russia took full advantage.
The result of this approach has been to cede the initiative to the Russians. One thing Moscow has apparently tried to do is sponsor a national-unity government bringing together Assad and elements of the opposition, namely the National Coordination Body (NCB) led by Haitham Mannaa. This plan had Iranian support as well, as Tehran had reached out to Mannaa months ago.
This proposal was the other notable thing Assad referenced in his speech. While claiming openness to dialogue with the opposition, Assad set out to define his interlocutors and the terms of the dialogue. On the one hand, he rejected dialogue with an opposition “that sits in [foreign] embassies” – a reference to the Syrian National Council (SNC). On the other hand, Assad added, “We don’t want an opposition that talks to us in secret, so as not to upset anyone.”
The latter reference was to the NCB. In order not to discredit themselves, Mannaa and the NCB hid behind the Arab League initiative’s call for a national dialogue, and for a unified opposition, which Mannaa wanted to become the body that dialogues with the regime over the transitional period, as he told LBCI on Tuesday.
Assad wanted to corner the NCB into either entering into dialogue on the regime’s terms, or to push it to reject dialogue, thereby shifting the blame onto it. Indeed, following the speech, an NCB spokesperson rejected participating in a dialogue, let alone a joint government, with the regime before it ends all violence and detentions, releases all political prisoners, and allows peaceful protests – none of which will happen, of course.
Moreover, it’s possible that Assad also sought to impose his terms on the Russian initiative. Rejecting the moniker “national-unity government,” he instead called for an “expanded” government that would include oppositionists, alongside technocrats, loyalists and “independents.” In other words, Assad will not even allow for parity between him and the opposition. With Moscow’s proclivity to criticize the opposition’s supposed rigidity, the Syrian president may well figure that the Russians might continue to pressure the NCB. Either way, he buys more time.
It is obvious then that Assad still believes he can set the parameters of any initiative – as he continues to strike the protest movement “with an iron fist.” This cockiness is typical for Assad, but such tactics are also all he’s got. Furthermore, with the US still shying away from real leadership, the vacuum is being filled with such problematic proposals that only provide Assad with more time to act with impunity.
In the end, what is most alarming is the fact that the Obama administration continues not to advance a serious policy option. It also seems unsure how to proceed following the crashing failure of the Arab League initiative on which it had banked.
Having allowed others to call the shots, Washington has wasted time and must now operate in an even messier context. This all but ensures that the situation in Syria will get a lot worse, as Assad, playing a zero-sum game, feels he has little to fear in terms of active intervention to stop him.
*Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He tweets @AcrossTheBay.