LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 04/2012
Bible Quotation for today/Praising
the Lord
Psalm 107/33-38:
"The Lord made rivers dry up completely and stopped springs from flowing. He
made rich soil become a salty wasteland because of the wickedness of those who
lived there. He changed deserts into pools of water and dry land into flowing
springs. He let hungry people settle there, and they built a city to live in.
They sowed the fields and planted grapevines and reaped an abundant harvest. He
blessed his people, and they had many children; he kept their herds of cattle
from decreasing.
Latest
analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous
sources
Israel’s new enemy/By
Hussein Shobokshi/January 03/12
Did you say “Happy” New Year/By:
Hazem Saghiyeh/January 03/12
Too early to judge the Arab revolts/By: Hussein Ibish/January 03/12
Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for
January 03/12
Sarkozy Urges Assad to Step Down over 'Disgusting'
Massacres
Arab League Calls Urgent Meeting on Syria Monitors
Arab League: Syrian security forces are still killing
anti-government protesters
The head of the Arab League Elaraby demands cease-fire in
Syria
Head of Syria rebels plans to escalate attacks
Syrian journalist dies of gunshot to head
Syria says 'terrorists' strike gas pipeline, state media reports
Syria opposition leader: In post-Assad era, Damascus would likely end its
alliance with Iran
Barak: Iran worried about unrest in Arab world
Syrian opposition leader: In post-Assad era, Arab peace
initiative will probably be accepted
Canada Welcomes Progress on Middle East Peace Process
Prosecutors to take stage in resumption of
Mubarak trial
Iran tests long-range missile near Hormuz
Iran Army Chief Warns U.S. Aircraft Carrier Away from Gulf
Israel: Nuclear activity at Dimona reactor to desist
should missiles attack Israel's home front
USA Republicans talk tough on Iran before Iowa caucus
Egypt Prosecutors: Mubarak a Tyrannical, Corrupt Leader
Jumblatt urges Russia, Iran to reconsider approach on
Syria
Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai calls for strong civil
state unbeholden to a single religion
Hezbollah warns Syria chaos could hit Lebanon
Marada Movement leader Suleiman Franjieh alleges cover-up
of Al-Qaeda presence
Arsal
rejects claims of harboring Al-Qaeda
Lebanon's Shura Council
rejects minimum wage increase
Israel to build wall on
Lebanon border: reports
Berri hopeful Cabinet
will approve oil law Wednesday
UN chief to visit Lebanon next week: govt
official
Row over Ghosn
claims not aimed at army: Hariri
Inmate hangs himself at Zahle prison
High-level Dignitaries to Attend Arab World Reform
Conference in Beirut
Ghosn to Reveal Info on al-Qaida Amid Ministerial Doubts
About his Claims
MP Michel al-Helou after Change and Reform Bloc Weekly
Meeting
Sarkozy Urges Assad to Step Down over 'Disgusting' Massacres
by Naharnet/French President Nicolas Sarkozy demanded Tuesday that Syrian
strongman Bashar Assad step down, accusing him of overseeing sickening
"massacres" against his own people. Sarkozy told an audience of French military
personnel that the Syrian people should be allowed "to freely choose their own
destiny" after facing what he denounced as brutal persecution that inspires
"disgust and revulsion.”U.N. humanitarian officials estimate that at least 5,000
Syrians have been killed in the nine months since a popular uprising erupted
against Assad's regime, most of them killed by security forces. Arab League
observers arrived in Damascus on December 26 as part of a bid to negotiate an
end to the violence and support political dialogue, but killings continue.
Sarkozy demanded the regime give the observers space to work, and called on the
international community to "face up to its responsibilities" by imposing the
"toughest sanctions" to force Damascus to grant humanitarian access. Earlier,
French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe had warned that France was skeptical that
the Arab observer mission would be able to resolve the crisis. After weeks of
stalling, Syria agreed to allow observers as part of an Arab plan calling for
the withdrawal of troops from cities and residential areas, a halt to violence
against civilians and the release of detainees. But despite the presence of the
monitors, violence continued on the ground, with the Syrian Observatory for
Human Rights saying another 11 people were killed in various parts of the
country on Monday.
Source/Agence France Presse.
Shura Council rejects minimum wage increase
January 03, 2012
The Daily Star /BEIRUT: The Shura Council rejected Tuesday Cabinet’s third wage
hike proposal, citing a violation of the country’s social security laws. “[The
proposal] contradicts article 68 of the Social Security law, which the proposal
is based on ... The proposed amount added to the salary, [amounting to]
LL236,000, includes the daily transportation fees ... violating the law,” the
council said in a statement. It added that the institution responsible by law
for amending decrees is the legislative branch represented by Parliament. On
Dec. 21, the Cabinet approved a wage hike proposal by Labor Minister Charbel
Nahhas that stipulates the minimum wage goes up to LL868,000 – a sum that
includes a LL236,000 transportation allowance that the government added to the
basic salary. The increase was set at 18 percent, in accordance with inflation
rates as calculated by the state-run Central Administration of Statistics since
2008. Salaries under LL1.5 million would receive an 18 percent increase while
salaries above LL1.5 million would receive an additional 10 percent on the
second salary bracket between LL1.5 million and LL2.5 million. Salaries above
LL2.5 million would not earn an additional increase, meaning the raise on these
salaries will be at LL370,000. The Shura council is a governmental body whose
recommendations are non-binding.
Jumblatt urges Russia, Iran to reconsider approach on Syria
January 03, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt urged Russia and Iran
Tuesday to reconsider their approach on the crisis in Syria, one based on the
principle of “the power of the powerless.” Jumblatt also urged the Druze in
Syria not to take part in the crackdown against anti-government protests, now in
its tenth month. “If only Russia would consider applying the principle of ‘the
power of the powerless” in its approach on its ally, Syria, and the need to
acknowledge that security solutions will not solve the current [Syria] crisis
which can only be solved through a fundamental regime change,” Jumblatt said in
a statement. “If only the Islamic Republic [Iran] would commit to the principle
of ‘the power of the powerless’ and for Imam Khomeini’s descendants to remember
that this principle had been applied during the confrontation with the shah of
Iran and led to his downfall,” he added.
Jumblatt cited similarities between the late “divine intellectual,” former
President Vaclav Havel, and his father - the late Kamal Jumblatt.
He said Havel’s famous saying “the power of the powerless” was akin to his
father’s view that “historical experiences have proven that people’s actions
achieve progress and do not go backward.” In his essay, Havel described “the
power of the powerless” as a societal paradigm in which citizens were forced to
"live within a lie" under the communist regime. The PSP chief said “the power of
the powerless” was behind the Arab revolutions that are demanding freedom and
dignity.
Addressing the Islamic Republic, Jumblatt said: "Iranian missiles may have
extensive power but the echo of the words of the great [Iranian] poet Saadi
Shirazi has a stronger effect.” Jumblatt, who has repeatedly called for reforms
to take place in Syria, also called on the Druze community in Syria not to take
part in the crackdown by Syrian authorities. “They [Druze], too, know that
peoples’ actions don’t go backward ... time has come to refrain from cooperating
with police and military units in their crackdown on the Syrian people,”
Jumblatt said, pointing out that dozens of them had returned in coffins as a
result of fighting fellow Syrian citizens.
The United Nations estimates that over 5,000 people, mostly civilians, have been
killed in the crackdown since anti-government protests started in March 2011.
Syrian authorities deny targeting civilians, blaming their deaths on “armed
gangs.”
Canada Welcomes Progress on Middle East Peace Process
January 1, 2012 - 10:15 p.m. ET) Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird today
issued the following statement concerning reports that Israeli and Palestinian
negotiators will meet for the first time in more than a year this week in
Jordan: “We welcome this commitment and urge all sides to approach these
discussions in good faith and without preconditions. “The road forward as
envisioned by the Quartet of Middle East mediators is, we believe, a good one
and is certainly preferable to the status quo—which is not an option. “Canada
supports a two-state solution in which a Jewish state can thrive in peace and
security alongside a Palestinian one.”
Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai calls for strong civil state unbeholden to a
single religion
January 03, 2012/The Daily Star
Beirut: Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai made a call for a strong but nuanced
civil state Monday, one that isn’t beholden to a particular religion but also
one that’s not entirely secular like many Western nations. Speaking in Bkirki at
a reception of a Hezbollah delegation for the New Year, Rai said such a system
could be a role model for the rest of the region in religious coexistence
between Christians and Muslims. He said the country should build on its culture
of tolerance by making a strong civil state, “a democracy that separates
religion from the state.” But Rai said there should be limits in that pursuit so
the state doesn’t compromise its values. “As for the West it has gone too far in
secular civil state because it not only separated between religion and the state
it separated between the state and God,” Rai said.
Rai said such a religious distinction was important because the secular state
had led to crisis in the West because it had entirely eliminated god from
government.
He said such a system of balance could be a model for religious coexistence in
the region. “Lebanon is a diverse country, different factions are equal in
rights and duties,” Rai said. “Lebanon should tell the people of the east that
Muslims and Christians can live together,” he said. With his comments the newly
appointed patriarch continued his very active role in commenting on civil issues
in the country. Last month Rai said people should have the option of having a
civil marriage free of religious designation.
During the reception of Sheikh Mohammad Amro from Hezbollah, Rai also took the
opportunity to endorse a national dialogue between political leaders in Lebanon
in order to maintain a strong state. “This is an occasion to call on officials
from different groups in Lebanon to sit at the dialogue table,” Raid said. Rai
said it was critical that politicians air their wishes and fears otherwise the
state would not function. “Lebanon should hold onto its message and be an
example of Arab states in the region,” he said.
Recently the issue of restarting a dialogue between the March 14 and March 8
coalitions gained traction with endorsements from a number political leaders.
National dialogue talks last took place last year before they fell apart over
disagreements about the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. The meeting took place in
the presence of Cardinal Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir as well as a Free Patriotic
Movement official.
Arsal’s residents reject claims of harboring Al-Qaeda
January 03, 2012/By Rakan al-Fakih/he Daily Star
Arsal’s residents are dismayed at accusations that their village is an Al-Qaeda
haven.
ARSAL, Lebanon: Most Arsal residents react with surprise or bitterness when
asked whether, as some have suggested, there are members of Al-Qaeda in their
town, which lies near the country’s northeastern border with Syria.
They argue that Islamic extremists have little influence in Arsal, whose economy
has boomed in recent years with the discovery of marble and other stones in the
surrounding valleys. From Baalbek, the town sits roughly 35 kilometers toward
the border region in the northern Bekaa Valley.
Small houses sit next to each other at the bottom of hills, while some newer
homes are perched on top.
Arsal’s residents number 50,000, with 40,000 living in the village and the rest
living in other Lebanese towns, cities or abroad.
In December, Defense Minister Fayez Ghosn said arms were being smuggled and
“some members of Al-Qaeda organization” were entering Lebanon through illegal
crossings on the Lebanese-Syrian border, particularly in Arsal, under the guise
of belonging to the Syrian opposition.
Ghosn’s remarks sparked controversy across the country, including in Arsal,
whose residents deny the accusation.
Ahmad Karnabi, a resident, argues that conservative and even moderate Islamists
enjoy little support in the town, citing the results of the 2010 municipal
election in which such candidates secured just 500 votes from some 6,000
eligible voters.
Hussein Hujeiri, also known as Hussein Hallaq, is among the very few residents
of Arsal who is reported to be an extremist, he adds.
Security bodies tried to arrest Hujeiri last summer on charges of being involved
in the kidnapping of seven Estonian tourists who went missing in March near the
Bekaa city of Zahle. The seven were released after four months under murky
circumstances and authorities do not know Hujeiri’s current whereabouts.
Mohammad Flaiti, a resident of Arsal, agrees with Karnabi, saying that Sheikh
Mustafa Hujeiri, the imam of a mosque in Arsal, could also be described as an
“extremist.”
But Sheikh Hujeiri, who calls for adopting Salafi Islam, enjoys little support
from Arsal residents, Flaiti argues.
The two Hujeiris, who are distant relatives, have lived most of their lives
outside Arsal, during which time they began to follow Salafi Islam.
Smuggling between Arsal and adjacent Syrian towns is common along the illegal
crossings in the rugged valleys, and social ties between Arsal residents and
Syrians are strong. Lebanese residents have shown their support for the uprising
in Syria and around 70 Syrian refugee families are currently being hosted in the
area.
“This is being used as a pretext to accuse the town of hosting and supporting
Al-Qaeda members ... these are fabrications,” Flaiti says.
Flaiti cites a good economy for the relatively weak support for Salafi Islam in
Arsal, explaining that the economy began to improve over two decades ago with
the discovery of marble and other stones used in construction, some of which are
now exported.
“There are 120 factories in [the town ] for processing the stone and $1.5
million circulate daily in the village in operations related to the sector,” he
says.
Flaiti says that between 3,000 and 4,000 Arsal families benefit directly and
indirectly from this industry. “The town has a high demand for workers in this
field, which means that any young man can find a job within days and with a
daily wage ranging between $22 and $50,” he adds. The area is so dominated by
the industry that some 70 percent of the income comes from processing and
selling marble and other stones, while 20 percent comes from jobs in the public
sector and the remaining 10 from agriculture, cattle and border smuggling.
Residents of Arsal say that before the discovery of the stones, young people in
the town joined Palestinian organizations and national parties which confronted
Israel’s attacks on south Lebanon. Another half hour and 25 kilometers on a dirt
road leads to the area of Kherbet Daoud, on the northern outskirts of Arsal
along the border with Syria. The Syrian army has crossed this part of the border
several times since the start of Syria’s uprising in mid-March of last year. One
resident of Kherbet Daoud was killed and others have been wounded during these
cross-border incursions. The homes of shepherds and residents of the area, which
is very close to the Homs-Damascus road, now sit empty as their inhabitants fled
to safer areas. The distance between Kherbet Daoud and the Syrian city of Nabik
and other Syrian towns ranges between 15 and 20 km and residents of towns on
both sides of the border maintain close social and economic ties. Karnabi notes
that the Syrian side of the border is under the control of Syrian border guards
and members of the Syrian army and intelligence, but there are few Lebanese
authorities on the Lebanese side.
For his part, Arsal’s mayor, Ali Hujeir, says he hopes that the Lebanese
government will foster development in the area, “rather than making unjust
accusations against its people of supporting and Al-Qaeda members.”
Hezbollah warns Syria chaos could hit Lebanon
January 03, 2012/The Daily Star
Rai meets with the Hezbollah delegation in the presence of Sfeir.
BEIRUT: A Hezbollah delegation warned after meeting Maronite Patriarch Beshara
Rai Monday that the turmoil in Syria could spill over into Lebanon and called on
rival Lebanese factions not to interfere in internal Syrian affairs. “The
circumstances through which our country is passing are calm now. But the
circumstances in the region within which we live are difficult, harsh and
complicated,” Sheikh Mohammad Amr, head of the Hezbollah delegation, told
reporters after the meeting with Rai in Bkirki, the seat of the influential
Catholic Maronite Church, north of Beirut.
“We fear the [regional] conflict will spread to Lebanon. But with your wisdom
and the wisdom of Lebanese leaders on whom we call to use reason and logic in
their political movement and dialogue to stay away from interfering in others’
affairs because Lebanon cannot afford any political, military or security
trouble,” Amr added.
Describing the situation in Lebanon as “delicate,” he said: “Lebanon carries a
message. This message must be expressed through dialogue and logic and not by
any other means.” The popular uprising in Syria against the regime of President
Bashar Assad, now in its 10th month, has sharply split the Lebanese. The
Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance backs the Assad regime, while the opposition
March 14 coalition, led by the Future Movement of former Prime Minister Saad
Hariri, has come out in support of Syrian protesters demanding Assad’s ouster.
The Lebanese government, which is dominated by Hezbollah and its March 8 allies,
has followed a policy of dissociating itself from U.N. or Arab League
resolutions condemning Syria over its brutal crackdown on protesters.
The Hezbollah delegation visited Rai to congratulate him on Christmas and the
New Year. The meeting was also attended by former Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah
Sfeir. The delegation said it hoped Rai would continue to reach out to all
Lebanese. “We are part of this loving nation with its diversity because this is
the message of Lebanon. We are a key component of this beloved and blessed
nation,” Amr said. Meanwhile, Hariri warned that the credibility of the Arab
League observer mission in Syria was at stake and slammed once more Assad over
the way he was handling his country’s crisis.
“The AL [Arab League] observers don’t have much time, credibility is of essence
and so far Bashar regime has been killing more and more,” Hariri said during a
live session with his supporters on his Twitter page Monday.
“It’s time for AL observers to say the truth, the full story and not like Bashar
regime wants it,” Hariri added. In December, Damascus signed an amended
agreement allowing in Arab League observers to oversee the implementation of a
peace plan to end the crisis in Syria. The Arab League initiative calls on the
Syrian government to withdraw the military from the streets, release political
prisoners, allow journalists into the country and launch dialogue with the
opposition.
However, the observer mission, which began its work late December, has been
criticized from several sides, including from rights activists, the Syrian
opposition and most recently by the head of the Arab Parliament, Ali al-Salem
al-Dekbas.
Dekbas called Sunday for the withdrawal of observers from Syria, saying the
mission was allowing Damascus to cover up unabated violence and graft.
Echoing calls by the Syrian opposition, Hariri told his followers on Twitter
that the observers needed to provide feedback about what they were seeing on the
ground.
Responding to a question as to whether he thought the signing of the protocol by
Damascus would put an end to the killing in Syria, Hariri said: “No, I didn’t
[expect a change] and I said it [before], remember, but now if this week the
observers continue without saying anything what’s the point then?”
Hariri, a staunch critic of Assad, again slammed the embattled president, saying
he appeared to be using the observer mission to carry on with a crackdown the
U.N. estimates has killed more than 5,000 people.
“I feel the regime thinks that signing the protocol gives him [Assad] a license
to kill,” Hariri tweeted in one post, adding: “It’s unbelievable, the Syrian
regime says we want reform [and] the conclusion is more killing.” Hariri
rebutted Defense Minister Fayez Ghosn’s claims that members of Al-Qaeda were
operating in Lebanon. “It’s been 7 years talking about Al-Qaeda in Lebanon,”
Hariri said. “It’s all a big lie.”
Last month, Ghosn said Al-Qaeda militants were sneaking into the Bekaa town of
Arsal under the guise that they were Syrian dissidents. However, Prime Minister
Najib Mikati and Interior Minister Marwan Charbel have denied that Al-Qaeda was
operating on Lebanese soil.
Also, Hariri’s ally, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, said that Lebanon will
begin a process of state building following the collapse of the Assad regime,
which he predicted would likely happen in 2012.
“Following the fall of the Syrian regime, we will enter a complicated political
process before we create another political system that is well defined and
capable of building relations between Lebanon and Syria as two [separate]
states,” Geagea told a gathering of his party’s general committee in Maarab at
the weekend.
“The year 2012 will witness the fall of the Syrian regime. This will have a
significant impact on Lebanon’s situation and will result in another balance of
power,” Geagea said.
“Presumably, after the fall of the Syrian regime, we should start the process of
building a state,” he added.
Geagea also spoke about Lebanese prisoners in Syria, saying Assad’s fall would
give Lebanon an opportunity to reveal the truth surrounding their fate. It is
not known exactly how many Lebanese nationals are held in Syrian prisons but NGO
estimates put the number at around 130 people.
Franjieh alleges cover-up of Al-Qaeda presence
January 03, 2012/Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star
Franjieh: It is not my duty to deal with the Al-Qaeda problem. The government is
responsible for that
BEIRUT: Marada Movement leader Suleiman Franjieh upheld Monday Defense Minister
Fayez Ghosn’s claims that Al-Qaeda was present in Lebanon, dismissing denials by
Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Interior Minister Marwan Charbel.
The Zghorta MP added that both President Michel Sleiman as well as Mikati had
reports about Al-Qaeda activity in Lebanon.
“Both the president and the prime minister are aware of this [Ghosn’s]
information and they know that it is serious information,” he said, adding that
he and the defense minister had been told to cover it up and “not to make a big
issue of it in order not to threaten the country’s economic interests.”
“The president is working for the country’s best interests and I hope he will
solve the problem behind the scenes and not through the media,” Franjieh said.
In the meantime, Charbel called on Lebanon’s feuding parties to reach an
understanding to cope with the repercussions of the nine-month turmoil in Syria
whether it leads to regime change or not.
Franjieh held a news conference to defend Ghosn in the face of scathing verbal
attacks by the opposition March 14 politicians, including former Prime Minister
Saad Hariri, who scoffed at the defense minister’s allegations that Al-Qaeda
militants were entering the Bekaa town of Arsal near the border with Syria.
“It is true that Al-Qaeda is present in Lebanon and it is true that there is
terrorism in Lebanon,” Franjieh told reporters at his residence in Bneshaai,
Zghorta, north Lebanon.
He said Ghosn’s remarks on the presence of Al-Qaeda in Lebanon were based on
security, military and intelligence reports by the Army. He called on Ghosn and
Army commander General Jean Kahwagi to reveal the information they have on the
alleged presence of Al-Qaeda members in Lebanon.
Franjieh said Ghosn, a member of the Marada Movement, was facing a violent
campaign. He added that the attacks on Ghosn were in fact targeting the Lebanese
Army.
He added that while Ghosn was sworn to confidentiality concerning the
information he had on Al-Qaeda, he himself was not. “There is dereliction by the
Lebanese state on this matter,” Franjieh said.
“The defense minister has briefed the Cabinet on all matters. He said there are
some terrorists who are infiltrating across the Syrian-Lebanese border and
entering [Lebanon] on the grounds that they are Syrian opposition. They are
coming from Iraq, transiting [through] Syria and entering Lebanon. This issue is
for the state to shoulder its responsibility and the Cabinet has fully adopted [Ghosn’s]
remarks,” Franjieh said.
“This atmosphere is based on security reports and information. The target behind
the campaigns is not the defense minister, but the Lebanese Army through the
defense minister,” Franjieh said. “The defense minister based [his information]
on reports given to him from the military establishment, the Lebanese Army’s
intelligence apparatus in his capacity as the official political spokesperson of
the military establishment and the Lebanese Army.”
“It is not my duty to deal with the Al-Qaeda problem. The government is
responsible for that,” he said, adding that the reason for defending Ghosn was
because he was a Marada member.
Last month, Ghosn stood firm on his statement that Al-Qaeda members were
entering Lebanon under the guise of Syrian opposition activists, rejecting March
14 criticism that his remarks were meant to serve the Assad regime.
Last week, a few days after Ghosn’s statement, twin suicide car bomb attacks
struck security services buildings in Damascus, killing 44 people and wounding
more than 100. Syria has blamed Al-Qaeda for the attack.
Ghosn’s statement has thrown the Mikati government, already riven by sharp
differences over many key issues, into chaos after both Mikati and Charbel
rejected the allegations of the presence of Al-Qaeda militants in Lebanon.
Ghosn’s remarks have since come under fire by March 14 politicians who have
accused him of seeking to serve the Assad regime which is facing a serious
challenge from a popular revolt. Damascus has repeatedly claimed arms have been
smuggled into Syria from Lebanon to inflame the protests against the regime.But
Charbel again denied Friday that Al-Qaeda members were operating in Lebanon. He
insisted that Al-Qaeda organization does not exist in Lebanon, saying that
“Lebanon could be a transit point for Al-Qaeda but not a sanctuary.”
In an interview with Tele Liban Monday, Charbel called for understanding among
the Lebanese to cope with the repercussions of the unrest in Syria. He stressed
“the need to tackle the problem that will face us as a result of what is
happening in Syria whether the regime is changed or not.” “Under all
circumstances, there will be a problem in Lebanon. A solution is in the hands of
the Lebanese themselves through understanding on what is happening in Syria,” he
said.
Franjieh, a staunch supporter of Assad, slammed Hariri for backing the
establishment of a buffer zone on the border with Syria, saying such a move was
aimed as a “blow” against Syria. “We also have information that the Americans
want a buffer zone in Lebanon against Syria. This is not in Lebanon’s best
interests,” he said. Franjieh added that 70 percent of Syrians supported Assad.
“We are with this Syrian regime [but] we will not do anything at the expense of
Lebanon,” he said.
Meanwhile, a large Lebanese Forces delegation headed by Zahle MPs visited Arsal
Monday in a show of solidarity, rejecting allegations that the town harbored
Al-Qaeda militants. They also rejected Franjieh’s defense of Ghosn’s claims on
the presence of Al-Qaeda in Arsal. The delegation visited Arsal’s municipality
where they were welcomed by its head Ali Hujairi.
Addressing the delegation, Hujairi said: “Arsal is a trust in the hands of
President Michel Sleiman. Arsal’s residents are with the Syrian revolution.”
Denying the presence of Al-Qaeda members in Arsal, he said: “There are only
patriotic men, at the forefront of them is the Lebanese Army.”
Meanwhile, MP Assem Areji said: “We came to show solidarity with Arsal’s
residents. The defense minister’s statement is not valid because Arsal is the
city of steadfastness.” He added that Franjieh’s remarks were designed to target
Arsal and the March 14 parties.
LF MP Farid Habib rejected Franjieh’s remarks, saying they were made at the
“behest of the Syrian regime.”
Meanwhile, Baath Party MP Assem Qanso said Al-Qaeda has infiltrated a number of
extremist groups in Lebanon.
“Al-Qaeda has infiltrated more than 20 extremist organizations that [share
similar ideologies to Al-Qaeda],” Qanso said in remarks published Monday by
pan-Arab Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat. He said Salafist movements in north Lebanon and
several areas in the eastern Bekaa Valley have provided “fertile ground” for the
spread of Al-Qaeda in Lebanon. With additional reporting by Rakan Faqih
Arab League: Syrian security forces are still killing
anti-government protesters
The head of the Arab League Elaraby demands cease-fire in Syria
January 03, 2012 01:58 AM Agencies/Daily Star/AMMAN/GENEVA/BEIRUT: Syrian
security forces are still killing anti-government protesters despite the
presence of foreign monitors in the country, the head of the Arab League said
Monday.
But he insisted the observer mission has yielded important concessions from
Damascus, such as the withdrawal of heavy weapons from cities.
Syria’s opposition cautioned the observers not to be taken in by President
Bashar Assad’s government, which has unleashed a withering military assault to
crush a nine-month-old uprising. Opposition groups have been deeply critical of
the mission, saying it is simply giving Assad cover for his crackdown.
“The Arab League has fallen victim to the regime’s typical traps, in which
observers have no choice but to witness regime-staged events, and move about the
country only with the full knowledge of the regime,” said a statement by the
Local Coordinating Committees, an umbrella group of activists.
“This has rendered the observers unable to work or move independently or in a
neutral manner,” the group said.
The U.N. estimates more than 5,000 people have been killed since the revolt
erupted in mid-March. Activists say that in the week since the observers started
their work in Syria on Dec. 27, hundreds have been slain. The LCC put the death
toll at more than 390 people since Dec. 21.
“Yes, there is still shooting and yes there are still snipers,” Arab League
Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby told a news conference in Cairo. “Yes, killings
continue. The objective is for us to wake up in the morning and hear that no one
is killed. The mission’s philosophy is to protect civilians, so if one is
killed, then our mission is incomplete.
“There must be a complete cease-fire,” Elaraby said.
Elaraby stressed the achievements of the Arab League mission, saying Syria’s
government has pulled tanks and artillery from cities and residential
neighborhoods and freed some 3,500 prisoners. He said food supplies have reached
residents and the bodies of dead protesters have been recovered.
The monitors are supposed to verify Syria’s compliance with an Arab League plan
to stop the crackdown on dissent – a plan Syria agreed to on Dec. 19. The plan
requires Assad’s regime to remove security forces and heavy weapons from city
streets, start talks with opposition leaders and free political prisoners.
The ongoing violence is reinforcing the opposition’s view that Syria’s limited
cooperation with the observers is nothing more than a ploy by Syria to buy time
and forestall more international condemnation and sanctions.
In its statement, the LCC said the regime has been disguising soldiers and army
officers in police uniforms and hiding their army vehicles to make it appear
they have pulled out in accordance with the Arab League plan.
While most of the violence reported early in the uprising involved Syrian forces
firing on unarmed protesters, there are now more frequent armed clashes between
military defectors and security forces. The increasing militarization of the
conflict has raised fears the country is sliding toward civil war.
The LCC said 20 people were killed across the country Monday, including 11 in
restive Homs province in central Syria and three in Idlib province, which
borders Turkey.
Syria has banned most foreign reporters and prevented independent journalism,
making it difficult to verify reports. Witness accounts, activist groups and
amateur videos have become key channels of information.
On Monday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said army defectors attacked
two military posts in that province, capturing a number of security forces. The
rebels also clashed with soldiers at a third post, and there were casualties,
the observatory said. The exact number of those captured and killed was not
immediately available.
It was not clear if the observatory’s account from Idlib was connected to the
footage in the amateur video.
Rami Abdul-Rahman, who heads the observatory, confirmed that tanks have not been
seen in Syrian cities since Thursday. But he said residents reported that the
weapons were still a threat.
“They can bring the tanks back and use them to fight,” Abdul-Rahman told the
Associated Press. He said the Arab League should not necessarily see the
withdrawal as a concession; instead, they should insist the tanks stay away for
good.
The opposition also has complained that the presence of suspected government
agents with the observers has discouraged Syrians from approaching them.
Elaraby said the mission was relying less and less on logistics provided by the
Syrian government, but pointed out that employing Syrian drivers was inevitable
because they are familiar with the roads.
“We cannot investigate the true identity of drivers,” Elaraby said.
Suggesting that the Arab League did not have a figure for the number of people
in custody since the uprising began, Elaraby called on the opposition and
ordinary Syrians to aid the observers by sending them names of relatives or
friends they think are detained by Assad’s regime.
He did not say whether the Arab League was able to verify the release of 3,484
prisoners or when they left prison.
In separate developments, Switzerland’s highest court has refused to lift an
entry ban on a cousin of President Assad, who was seeking to travel to the
country to fight sanctions imposed by Bern.
Hafez Makhlouf, who heads Damascus’ secret services, counts among the regime’s
hard-liners, and is alleged to have been in charge of the brutal repression
against demonstrators.
According to the Swiss court’s ruling published on its website, Makhlouf had
been contesting the sanctions imposed on him by Bern, arguing that the embargo
was based on inaccurate information.
As part of his bid to contest Bern’s actions, Makhlouf sought to travel to
Switzerland to meet his lawyer, but the court turned down his request for a
visa. The court found that the Syrian and his lawyer had “at their disposal
modern modes of communication” and the lawyer “can travel to Syria with ease” to
meet his client.
Makhlouf figures in sixth position on a list of 54 people whose assets have been
frozen by Bern, according to the court. He is “designated as the colonel in
charge of the Damascus’ unit in the intelligence command,” it said. He is also
“implicated in the repression against demonstrators.”
Republicans talk tough on Iran before Iowa caucus
By HILARY LEILA KRIEGER, JPOST CORRESPONDENT
01/02/2012/J.Post
Bachmann follows Santorum in offering "aggressive posture toward letting Iran
know we mean business.
BOSTON – Republican candidates offered strong words on Iran on Monday – the day
before Iowa holds the first vote for the GOP presidential nomination.
“We need to have our missile systems capable and ready to deliver. We need to
send a very strong signal that the United States is on high alert and we will do
whatever it takes,” Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota told The Early Show on
CBS
“What we need to do is take a very aggressive posture toward letting Iran know
that we mean business, that we don’t want them to seek a nuclear weapon,” she
said.
Bachmann also criticized US President Barack Obama for putting distance between
America and Israel, endangering the Jewish state in the face of the threat from
Iran.
The Islamic Republic test-fired two long-range missiles on Monday and announced
over the weekend that it had produced its first nuclear fuel rod, after Obama
tightened sanctions on the country on Saturday. Iran has also threatened to
close the Straits of Hormuz in light of the sanctions.
Bachmann’s comments followed Rick Santorum’s own harsh comments on Iran on
Sunday. The former US senator from Pennsylvania told NBC’s Meet the Press that
the message to Tehran should be, “You either open up those facilities, you begin
to dismantle them and make them available to inspectors, or we will degrade
those facilities through air strikes.”
Santorum has seized the momentum in the open and unwieldy political field in
Iowa, which will hold its caucuses on Tuesday night, in the US’s first vote for
delegates who will choose the Republican presidential nominee.
He has been among the candidates vying for the support of Evangelical
Christians, who have until now alternated their support among the many staunch
social conservatives in the race. Bachmann wooed them first, with a win at the
Iowa straw poll in August, but Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former House of
Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich have also been leading candidates at
various times.
This weekend, a Des Moines Register survey, considered one of the most reliable
for the notoriously hard-to-poll caucuses, gave Santorum 15 percent, up from the
single digits he had until recently. But pollsters for the newspaper noted that
in the last two days of the four-day-long poll, Santorum had captured upwards of
20% of the vote – placing him within spitting distance of the 24% backing
enjoyed by front-runner Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts.
The same poll found support for US Representative Ron Paul of Texas at 22%,
though other polls in recent weeks put him in first place. But in the space of
the four days the Des Moines Register poll was conducted, Paul began at a high
of 29% and ended at 16%. Several analysts attributed this decline to his
controversial views on foreign policy, as well as newsletters written under his
name in the 1990s that had negative comments about Jews, blacks and gays. Paul
has denied knowledge of the content of the newsletters.
Paul, a Libertarian, is the only candidate who has minimized the threat posed by
Iran and has not espoused strong financial and military support for Israel, an
issue on which he has been attacked by several of his competitors. Bachmann told
CBS, “I took Ron Paul to task because his foreign policy is very dangerous. He
says that he has no problem with Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon,” adding, “This
is going to be one of the largest issues of this campaign.”
Paul’s campaign manager, Jesse Benton, who appeared on MSNBC, dismissed the
falling poll numbers, saying that the team’s internal polling still showed Paul
finishing strongly. The Republican race has been marked by its fluidity, with at
least seven front-runners at different times, according to various polls.
“It’s the most bizarre nominating process I’ve seen in American politics,”
veteran democratic strategist James Carville said on CNN Monday.
With just days to go before the Iowa vote, the Des Moines Register poll found
that 41% of expected caucus-goers still hadn’t made up their minds. Though
Romney and Santorum have both picked up speed, the number of undecided voters is
large enough to scramble the results once again.
Caucuses are traditionally a tricky process to prognosticate upon because the
contour of the vote is so different from the traditional quick stop to a polling
booth, as will take place in the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary on
January 10. In a caucus, voters need to congregate in person at one appointed
place, often a church, school or other municipal building, and spend hours
debating and casting their votes. Supporters of candidates who don not pass the
vote threshold reapportion their vote as part of the process. Another wrinkle is
added by independents, who can register as Republican just to participate in the
caucus. Anne Selzer, an Iowa pollster, estimated that about one-fifth of Iowa
caucusgoers on Tuesday would be independents, noting that the Des Moines
Register had included this group in its poll numbers. Independents were likely
to favor the more moderate Romney or the libertarian Ron Paul, she said.
Syrian opposition leader, Samir Nashar: In post-Assad era, Arab peace initiative
will probably be accepted
Syria’s relationship with Iran, currently its sole ally, will likely be subject
change, Syrian National Council leader says.
By Natasha Mozgovaya/Latest update 03.01.12/Haaretz
Samir Nashar, one of the leaders of the Syrian National Council opposition group
calls for military intervention, says free Syria will follow Palestinians’ lead
regarding relations with Israel, once the Golan Heights are returned to Syria.
Syria’s relationship with Iran, currently its sole ally, will likely be subject
change, Nashar says in an interview to the Washington Post.
"This primarily depends on the Iranian position towards the regime change,"
Nashar said. "If they are willing not to adopt hostile position, we expect the
relation to be a positive one, which might not be similar to the relation of
strategic alliance, but more a relation between two sovereign countries, like
those between Iran and Turkey".
The Syrian opposition leader said the opposition was more interested in internal
reform, rather than foreign policy: “Our first priority in the post-Assad Syria
will be to rebuild the country internally and socially in terms of
infrastructure.”
But when asked about the possibility of making peace with Israel, he said “The
new Syria will fully support the rights of the Palestinian people and will work
to further Arab cooperation and regional solidarity. And will build its
relationship with countries based on mutual respect".
Asked whether the new Syrian regime would recognize Israel, he said: "This will
be left to the will of Syrian people who will express their will on this
democratically following the overthrow of the Syrian regime".
"The Arab Initiative will most probably be acceptable after the regime change,
and we hope it will become a reality,” he told the Post. “After Syria will get
back the Golan Heights, they will accept whatever will be accepted by the
Palestinian people."
When asked whether Hamas still be welcome in Damascus, he replied that "keeping
Hamas under positive Arab influence is a good thing and Syria can encourage
Hamas to keep unity with the Palestinian Authority, it's better than to leave
Hamas on their own devices or to other players' influence".
He added that most of the opposition leaders support an international military
intervention aimed at ousting President Bashar Assad "as early as possible,"
adding that some may not be brave enough to say so openly.
"Under Islam ruled by Saudi Arabia, an Arab reads 4 pages annually when
individuals in countries like the United States read 11 books."
Only with Regime Change in Saudi Arabia, Arabs Will Get a Chance at Renaissance
Farid Ghadry Blog/Reform Party of Syria
The analogy between the European Renaissance that started in 1423 when the first
non-Latin books were printed and the Arab Renaissance about to start with the
prevalence of the non-despotic and non-exclusionary language of the Internet is
one worthy of our consideration. As books and their varieties opened the minds
of Europeans back then, the Internet is playing a similar role in the lives of
our youths today.
Similarly, as Europe in the early 15th Century reverted to its golden age when
Greek philosophers, painters, and writers ruled with their wisdom, Arabs will
revert to theirs when al-Khwarizmi and Avicenna ruled with their knowledge and
enlightenment.
Italy preceding the Renaissance was a string of many states of which ruined Rome
was one leading with a powerful but corrupt Church. Today, the Arab world is a
string of many states led by a powerful and corrupt Muslim state called Saudi
Arabia.
And as the Renaissance started in Florence with Donatello's curiosity and
Brunelleschi's imagination, so will the Arab Renaissance start in Syria with the
spark of today's Rebellion leading the way to a wiser era.
Why Syria? Because it has the disposition, the history, and the Christian
minorities still umbilically connected to a western civilization the way Erasmus
and Petrarch, very early on, connected with Ancient Greek to fight ungodliness
and ignorance.
Standing in the way is Saudi Arabia ruling over ignorance, injustices,
despotism, cronyism, and the Dark Ages of our times. The heart of our
Renaissance will start beating the day the al-Saud of Saudi Arabia are deposed
to yield to full separation of Mosque and State.
While the Medicis in Florence invested in and promoted the freedom necessary to
enlighten and to catapult learning beyond Florence, the al-Saud are investing in
suppressing freedom at home and elsewhere to extend the darkness Arabs live
under. Under Islam ruled by Saudi Arabia, an Arab reads 4 pages annually when
individuals in countries like the United States read 11 books.
The US State Department and all the NGO's funded by the US Congress are spending
billions in the Middle East to promote democracy, the rule of law, and respect
for human rights in the region; but it's all a waste of good US tax money if the
US also supports simultaneously despotism in countries ruled like medieval
fiefdoms. What is the use of learning about democracy and the rule of law if our
people cannot practice it? Because of US policies, Arabs have become perpetual
students of their values but non-practitioners.
Today, Saudi Arabia is silencing the voices of freedom in my native country. As
someone who knows this country intimately having been a temporary citizen of
theirs, I am appalled by the vast divide between their introvert actions and
their extrovert words. Saudi Arabia is not the country that I knew in the early
seventies. It seems the wealthier they get, the dirtier their policies get and
the more arrogant their Islamic values become.
Israel’s new enemy
By Hussein Shobokshi
AlsharqAlawsat
The extremism that has shamefully started to appear now in some media outlets
does not come from the Middle East, and does not come from countries inside the
Islamic world; rather it comes from inside Israel itself. Today the voices of
violence, domination and force are coming from the traditional orthodox Jews,
who make up nearly 10 percent of the current Israeli population. They now have
the loudest voices and are influencing the street more effectively. They have
attacked women for exposing their hair or wearing indecent clothing, they have
vandalized pictures of women on advertisement boards, and they insist on gender
separation in all forms of public transport. This group is today the fastest
growing within the Jewish community of Israel.
The Jews have many different currents and doctrines, and not all of them are so
intense. The major cities such as Tel Aviv and Jaffa are mainly inhabited by
liberal and reformist Jews, but the orthodox Jews that I have referred to have
taken refuge in smaller areas that are not under the same social microscope as
the large cities, settling in areas such as Beit Shemesh, a town located between
Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
This city has turned into the point of contact in the conflict between liberal
and extremist currents inside Israel, a conflict that the current Israeli
President Shimon Peres has called a battle for “the soul of the nation and the
essence of the state”. This means that the real battle today for Israel (a
country that defines itself as an exclusively Jewish state) is the battle to
define what constitutes genuine Jewish practice.
Demonstrations and marches have taken place, warning against and condemning the
prevalent extremism and attacks on women. These moves erupted after a group of
extremists, affiliated to the traditional orthodox Jewish current, attacked an 8
year old schoolgirl on the grounds of her “indecency”, her “scandalous” clothing
and her “shameful” behavior.
The media has now begun to cover the debate between the trend that objects to
such extremist behavior, and fears the madness of radicalism and its dominance,
and the other trend that defends the fundamentals of religion and advocates the
importance of preserving them, warning of the dangers of the dissolution of
Jewish identity and the disappearance of religious values.
The Knesset (Israeli parliament), in more than one session, has addressed the
implications of what has happened and its impact upon society and politics.
Marches opposing and condemning this growing radicalism have been led by the
former Prime Minister, Tzipi Livni, and the same opposition stance has been
adopted by the current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said “what is
happening now is not the true interpretation of the spirit of the Torah”.
The extremist group affiliated to the traditional orthodox Jewish movement is
known as “Haredi”, the most radical Jewish community that accounts for half the
residents of the town of Beit Shemesh, with a population of 100 thousand people.
Verbal harassment, insults, swearing, spitting, cursing and derisory looks…these
are the constant complaints of women who work and study in the town, all of
which they receive from the resident extremist community on a regular and
continuous basis. The Haredi community in Israel has two political parties,
which toe the Haredi line in the Knesset and defend it.
Israel has always sought to find a balance between its Jewish identity and its
declared secular line, but in the last few years it has drifted towards the
right and fundamentalism, and recent events show that the issue of Israel’s
social structure has gotten seriously out of control. Rabbi Rabbi Shmuel
Jakobovits, a well-known orthodox leader and constant defender of the Haredi
community in Israeli society, explains that the Haredis “must live in a way we
believe to be correct”, and that “we know women need to be protected and
safeguarded, and our way is the most appropriate for that”.
The arrival of Menachem Begin to power, followed by the emergence of Meir Kahane
and Baruch Goldstein, the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, the rise of the Shas
Party, Yisrael Beiteinu, and settler extremism…All of these are signs of the
madness of extremism within Israeli society. For long years and decades, Israel
has devoted itself to huge war budgets in order to attack its neighbors, but it
has ignored its new enemy, which is growing like a cancer from within.
Syrian journalist dies of gunshot to head
January 03/12/ By Brooke Anderson
The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Syrian journalist Shukri Ahmad Ratib Abu Burghul died Monday in a
Damascus hospital from wounds sustained from a gunshot wound to the head.
The 55-year-old journalist had just arrived at his home in the Damascus suburb
of Darya after hosting his weekly radio program on Radio Damascus.
According to the Paris-based media watchdog group Reporters Without Borders (RSF),
“gunmen deliberately shot Burghul in the face, beneath the eye.” He was then
rushed to the hospital.
“Whoever the killer is, this is a bad sign and a new stage for [violence against
journalists] in Syria,” Fadi Aho, a journalist with the Syrian satellite station
Orient News told The Daily Star.
Burghul began his work as a journalist in 1980, when he began working for the
government newspaper Al-Thawra (The Revolution), where he became deputy director
of its censorship department. He also hosted programs on Radio Damascus.
Burghul’s murder followed the fatal shootings of cameraman Ferzat Jarban on Nov.
20, and citizen journalist Basil Al-Sayed on Dec. 29, both of whom were killed
in the restive city of Homs.
RSF says that it is urging the Arab League observers to “go to the scene of the
shooting to conduct an investigation.”
The non-governmental organization adds: “In the absence any concrete response
from the Arab League’s observers to these requests, Reporters Without Borders
questions the effectiveness of their mission and fears that it is a sham that
will just legitimize the Syrian government’s repression.”
With foreign journalists largely banned from Syria, local media has been working
under severe restrictions. Most news stations have had to rely on them as well
as citizen journalists for coverage of the country’s protest movement.
Since the outbreak of Syria’s popular uprising, which began March 15, the United
Nations estimates that more than 5,000 people, mainly civilians, have been
killed. The Syrian government claims that the ongoing violence is due to armed
gangs.
Did you say “Happy” New Year?
Hazem Saghiyeh, January 3, 2012
The transition from 2011 to 2012 in Lebanon is certainly the toughest that the
country has witnessed in its modern history.
Indeed, the transition from 1943 – the year Lebanon gained its independence – to
1944 was relatively easy as the independence was based on a reasonable amount of
national unanimity and was free from any residual blood and hatred.
Likewise, the transition from 1959 to 1960 against a backdrop of the 1958 civil
war repercussions was easy and was epitomized by President Fouad Chehab’s term.
The new presidential term benefited from reasonable unanimity as well and was
based on a regional understanding between the United States and Nasser’s Egypt,
thus averting tough tests in the country.
Things began to change with the transition to 1975, which coincided with the
first civil/regional war and following which every transition stood all but slim
chances of success. This held true for subsequent transitions. In 1977,
President Elias Sarkis’ term was consolidated following the Two Years’ War but
the fragility of this term, its consolidation and its unanimities became
apparent all too soon. The 1991 Taif Accord brought about apparent stability
while making no secret of its deep contradictions, the early premises of which
were probably represented by former President René Mouawad’s assassination. This
went all the way to 2006 and the demise of the Lebanese-Syrian security regime.
Throughout all these transition years, national unanimity kept dwindling,
whereas tensions and bloodshed around Lebanon were still on the rise.
It is probably possible to say that the current transition into 2012 is the
culmination of all these tough transitions, as epitomized by specific years. As
we are welcoming a new year, we bring along an almost total lack of unanimity
among the Lebanese and an enormous portion of hatred. The Syrian uprising is
undermining the regional system that has long kept Lebanon in its grasp.
Meanwhile, the meagerness of the Lebanese state and Hezbollah’s excessive might
are becoming an element in favor of importing the negative repercussions of the
Syrian crisis.
By and large, we are aware – now more than in any other previous year – that we
are lying to one another when we say: Happy New Year.
This article is a translation of the original, which was posted on the NOW
Arabic site on Monday January 2, 2012
Too early to judge the Arab revolts
Hussein Ibish, January 3, 2012
Ibish argues that it’s far too early to come to any definitive conclusions about
where the Arab upheavals will lead. (Photo via europarl.europa.eu)
A year into the Arab uprisings, it’s far too early to come to any definitive
conclusions about where the upheavals will lead. But it is helpful to try to
keep terms and categories straight in order to follow what has happened and what
may happen into the future.
Some commentators are trying to characterize in broad-brushstrokes what is
taking place in Arab political culture. Some are identifying the main feature as
a liberationist imperative that has gripped the Arab political imagination.
Others warn that popular uprisings without clear aims will inevitably lead to
the “victory” of Islamists. Others say we have entered into a period of
protracted chaos that will be characterized by increasing violence and conflict
within states and regionally.
All these views are premature. Elements of each and of all can be found in the
events of the past year. But, a clear, overriding narrative that sums up the
essence of what is taking place in the Arab world is beyond anyone’s reach.
The convulsions are so multifaceted, with so many variables and so much that
remains to be determined, that we must content ourselves simply with accepting
that we are witnessing historic and transformative events. However, there have
also been definite dynamics characterizing the uprisings in various countries.
So we can be precise about what exactly has and has not been taking place.
I was on a television panel last week with the insightful Egyptian commentator
Mamoun Fandy, for a year-end round up of the uprisings. Fandy observed that
“there has not been one Egyptian revolution, there have been two.” I pointed out
that there had been no revolutions at all in Egypt. What took place with the
fall of President Hosni Mubarak was regime decapitation, not regime change.
Faced with growing popular pressure, the military and other parts of the power
structure removed the president and certain other key high-level figures in
order to preserve as much of their power as possible.
Egypt is now the scene of a contest for power within and between previously
existing institutions – principally the military and the only political party
that is truly effective, the Muslim Brotherhood. This hardly qualifies as a
“revolution.”
The Tunisian case is somewhat different. There, analogous regime decapitation
did not lead to military rule; it led to what we could call a “pacted
transition” to an emergent constitutional system, one that has been brokered but
not dominated by the military.
So far, the only Arab country to have seen a real “revolution” is Libya, the
product of a fully-fledged civil war and limited external military intervention.
But the new order in Libya lacks institutions and is dominated by rival armed
militias and a growing rivalry between the east and west of the country that has
yet to be resolved.
In Syria, popular protests have not turned into a revolution yet, but armed
resistance to the regime is growing, in spite of the misgivings of much of the
political opposition. Syria seems well into an insurgency phase, and may be
headed toward outright civil war. However, that will require the defection of
mechanized units of the army or heavy weapons being provided to rebels from the
outside.
In Yemen, popular protests have also not turned into a revolution. Rather, they
have been more or less hijacked by various members of the political elite in a
complex power struggle that is slowly dragging the country into ever-greater
levels of disintegration.
In Bahrain, popular protests not only did not lead to a revolution, protestors
probably did not seek a revolution (at least at first). The uprising thus far
appears to have been contained by the royal family and its Gulf allies. However,
the status quo is unsustainable and the potential for a campaign of urban
terrorism by opposition or Shia extremists remains potentially a dangerous
self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Algerian government appears particularly concerned about the potential for
an uprising. Morocco and Jordan have relatively popular monarchs, and some Gulf
states are protected by wealth. But even if uprisings were to spread to these
countries, it is impossible to predict what form they would take. Meanwhile,
Iraq and Lebanon are heavily driven by sectarian forces and are especially
sensitive to regional developments.
The best anyone can really do – apart from describing in immediate terms what
has been happening in specific Arab states and in the broader region – is not to
try to characterize the Arab uprisings in sweeping terms. It is preferable to
use precise terms rather than resort to frequently emotional rhetoric about
“revolutions.”
Hussein Ibish is a senior research fellow at the American Task Force on
Palestine and blogs at www.Ibishblog.com