LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 06/2012

Bible Quotation for today/The  loaves and the fish
Matthew 15/29-37: "Moving on from there Jesus walked by the Sea of Galilee, went up on the mountain, and sat down there. Great crowds came to him, having with them the lame, the blind, the deformed, the mute, and many others. They placed them at his feet, and he cured them.  The crowds were amazed when they saw the mute speaking, the deformed made whole, the lame walking, and the blind able to see, and they glorified the God of Israel.  Jesus summoned his disciples and said, "My heart is moved with pity for the crowd, for they have been with me now for three days and have nothing to eat. I do not want to send them away hungry, for fear they may collapse on the way."The disciples said to him, "Where could we ever get enough bread in this deserted place to satisfy such a crowd?" Jesus said to them, "How many loaves do you have?" "Seven," they replied, "and a few fish." He ordered the crowd to sit down on the ground. Then he took the seven loaves and the fish, gave thanks, broke the loaves, and gave them to the disciples, who in turn gave them to the crowds. They all ate and were satisfied. They picked up the fragments left over--seven baskets full."

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
How Would Assad Use Chemical Weapons/By: Jeffrey White/Washington Institute/December 05/12

Correcting the Brotherhood’s reading of Egyptian society/By Ali Ibrahim/Asharq Alawsat/December 05/12
The exclusionary media and the Muslim Brotherhood's popularity/By Dr. Hamad Al-Majid/Asharq Alawsat/December 05/12

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for December 05/12
Greek Orthodox Patriarch Hazim dies aged 92
Terror attacks quadrupled since 9/11
Hariri pledges support for Syria rebels
Saqr unlikely to lose immunity for arming rebels
March 14: Assad Regime Plot to Create Unrest in Tripoli Must Be Resolved by Radical Solution
The Future Movement said Saqr was intervening on behalf of the Syrian people.
Lebanon's Internal Security Forces official denies ISF asked for passwords
Lebanese Judge probes MP, Saqr's calls over arms to Syrian rebels
Clashes flare up in Tripoli, death toll rises

Three killed in fresh Tripoli fighting
Syria: Dignity and freedom for all
Syria considering returning bodies of Lebanese fighters
Syria agrees to hand over bodies of slain Lebanese fighters

Ansar Allah Palestinian Islamist group severs Hezbollah ties
Lebanon's Prime Minister Najib Mikati says to call for elections June 9/13
Lebanese Cabinet appoints Roger Salem dep. com. of ISF
Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun : Providing SMS data unconstitutional
Iran claims US drone capture; Navy denies loss
NATO warns Syria not to use chemical weapons
NATO missiles to be sent to Turkey, Syria clashes rage



Kuwait Interior Ministry warns against illegal protests
Jailed Iran rights lawyer ends hunger strike
Iran says extracts data from US spy drone

Greek Orthodox Patriarch Hazim dies aged 92
December 05, 2012 /The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Greek Orthodox Patriarch Ignatius IV Hazim passed away Wednesday at a Beirut hospital after suffering a stroke a day earlier. He was 92. Hazim was admitted to Saint George hospital in Ashrafieh Tuesday after suffering a stroke. The hospital’s administration said it would release a statement concerning Hazim’s death later Wednesday.  Born in the village of Mhardey near Hama in Syria in 1920, Hazim was the son of an Arab Orthodox family and was attracted to Church service from an early age. After finishing school in Hama, Hazim moved to Beirut where he studied literature and started serving the Orthodox Church in Lebanon.
Hazim helped found the global Society of Orthodox Youth Organizations and he became a member of the Sacred Convention of Orthodox Patriarchs in 1961 and in 1971 he was appointed Orthodox Metropolitan of the Syrian city of Lattakia. Hazim was appointed Greek Orthodox Patriarch of the Levant and Antioch in 1979. Deputy Parliament Speaker Farid Makari described Hazim Wednesday as a historic figure who led the Orthodox community through a difficult time in the region. “The Orthodox community has lost a historic, great man who led his people with great wisdom in a difficult phase of the region’s history and,” Makari said in a statement.
“We assure him that his community will be fine ...and its role will remain one that is primarily aimed at building a new, democratic Syria and in strengthening stability in Lebanon and nation-building,” he added.

March 14: Assad Regime Plot to Create Unrest in Tripoli Must Be Resolved by Radical Solution
Naharnet /The March 14 General Secretariat accused on Wednesday the Syrian regime of President Bashar Assad of fueling the unrest in the northern city of Tripoli.
It said in a statement after its weekly meeting: “The regime's determination to spark unrest in Tripoli must be confronted by a radical solution by the state and its security and military forces.”
“The residents of Tripoli are aware of the conspiracy aimed at provoking them and involving their city in a crisis that does not concern them,” it added.
This awareness should be met with decisive security measures that could resolve the security situation permanently, it said.
Furthermore, the general secretariat reiterated its demand that the army deploy along the Lebanese-Syrian border “in order to put an end to Hizbullah's meddling in Syria.”
“This meddling threatens Lebanon's security and helps transport the crisis to Lebanon,” it noted.
The deployment should serve to end the Syrian regime forces' daily violations of Lebanon's sovereignty, it explained.
The Mach 14 General Secretariat also offered its condolences over the death of Patriarch Ignatius IV Hazim of Antioch and all the East, who passed away on Wednesday.
The Tripoli clashes broke out over the weekend in wake of the announcement of the death of a number of Lebanese Islamist fighters, who mainly hail from the North, in the border region of Tall Kalakh in Syria on Friday.
Media outlets had conflicting information about the number of people who died and those who survived the attack.
While the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that a group of 30 rebels "were caught in an ambush by government troops in the area of Tall Sarin near the town of Tall Kalakh”, Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5) said the ambush left 20 Lebanese men dead, adding that they hail from Akkar's Fnaideq and Tripoli's Bab al-Tabbaneh and al-Mankoubin neighborhoods.

The Future Movement said Saqr was intervening on behalf of the Syrian people.
BEIRUT: The Future Movement parliamentary bloc issued its official support Tuesday for the lawmaker implicated in sending arms and ammunition to Syrian rebel fighters, saying those calling for holding MP Oqab Saqr accountable should hold Hezbollah responsible too. In its defense of Saqr – who confirmed Monday the authenticity of audio recordings implicating him in supplying weapons to the Free Syrian Army – the Future Movement accused Hezbollah again of sending fighters to aid Syrian President Bashar Assad. “Those who call for holding Future bloc MP Oqab Saqr accountable and demand him to be stripped of his parliamentary immunity should first hold Hezbollah, its officials and, above all, its chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah accountable,” the Future bloc said in a statement released Tuesday afternoon.
The official comment was the first from the parliamentary group since Al-Akhbar newspaper published last week a three-part series detailing recordings between Saqr and Syrian rebels explicitly asking for ammunitions, among them rocket-propelled grenades, machine guns and “special pieces of arms.”During Tuesday’s Cabinet session ministers said some Cabinet members deliberated the Saqr case, though no official action was decided. Ministerial sources told The Daily Star that several March 8 ministers called for the Zahle lawmaker to be brought to justice. Also Tuesday, Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun condemned Saqr’s interference in Syrian issues, while an official judicial inquiry into the audio recordings was launched. The Future bloc drew a line between intervening in Syria on behalf of the people and aiding the Syrian regime, which it accused of crimes equivalent to “genocide.” “There is no equality among those who take the side of the executioner and those who take the side of the victim, and there is no equality among those who support the murderer and the assassin and those who extend a helping hand to the slaughtered Syrian people,” the statement said.
The Future Movement has repeatedly insisted that its support of Syrians is solely of a moral and humanitarian nature. Aoun’s Change and Reform parliamentary bloc also issued its first official statement regarding Saqr, echoing some of its March 8 allies in condemning any supply of arms to the Syrian rebels as illegal. “This is unacceptable and it requires taking judiciary procedures against the MPs who are contributing to this war because what they are doing is a criminal act,” the statement said. Saqr confirmed Monday in an interview with pan-Arab Ash-Sharq al-Awsat the authenticity of the audio recordings and voiced readiness to face any potential legal measures against him in the affair. Aoun’s Change and Reform bloc responded to his admission and the Future Movement’s backing by reaffirming the official government policy of disassociation from the now 21-month-old conflict next door.
“MP Saqr, along with all his colleagues at March 14 coalition are proud of their arms smuggling to Syria,” the statement said. “The government has huge responsibilities ahead of it and it cannot stand such intervention.”
The statement also criticized March 14 for choosing arms over diplomacy.
“Instead of calling on the Syrians to sit for negotiations to reach humanitarian solutions and improve their political system, part of the Lebanese encourage and undertake the mission of taking down the Syrian regime,” it said.
Early Tuesday, Lebanon’s Prosecutor Judge Hatem Madi tasked the Central Criminal Investigations Bureau with examining the audio recordings implicating Saqr.
The investigation marks the first judicial action taken after news of the recordings broke. The start of a judicial investigation puts Saqr’s parliamentary immunity in jeopardy, as Speaker Nabih Berri said Monday he would wait to hold a vote on stripping Saqr of his immunity until he receives an official case file. Judicial investigators will listen to the audio recordings by Saqr to decide on the correct judicial measures according to Lebanese law and the judicial cooperation agreements between Lebanon and Syria, sources said. During Tuesday’s government session, the general prosecutor informed lawmakers that his office was looking into the voice recordings and that it will act on its findings, stressing that this file lies within its jurisdiction and not the government’s tasks. Other lawmakers, such as MP Butros Harb, a member of the March 14 alliance, have taken an explicit stance in support of Saqr, denying the right of the government to strip him of his immunity. “I know of no criminal file that has Saqr’s name on it except from the media ... When this happens we will act accordingly and we will discuss who out of the MPs deserve to keep their immunity and who deserves to be stripped of it,” said Harb after meeting U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Derek Plumbly at Harb’s residence in Hazmieh.
“It is unacceptable to threaten MPs by stripping them of their immunity to silence them or prevent them from performing any political mission which he is entitled to.”
Speaking earlier to The Daily Star, a former MP and legal expert Mikhael Daher said the public prosecutor’s office can request that immunity be removed if there is a case against an MP, adding that inciting violence in another country is a crime. Monday, in comments to pan-Arab Ash-Sharq al-Awsat, Saqr acknowledged it was indeed him in recordings that discussed supplying weapons to Syrian rebels.“Yes. This is my voice and those are my words. I am not in the habit of denying my words or voice, and I am not ashamed of what I have done and am doing,” he said.In his Monday comments, Saqr said he was ready to face any potential legal measures against him regarding the affair. The MP said he had always abided by the law and did not hide behind his parliamentary immunity.

Hariri pledges support for Syria rebels
December 05, 2012 /The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri pledged his unwavering support for the Syrian revolution, vowing to see through a transition to a democratic government, in a meeting with members of the Syrian opposition’s leadership Tuesday. “Our Arab, fraternal and humanitarian responsibility obligates us to support the opposition and the leadership of the National Coalition,” Hariri told a delegation from the coalition. “And we will not stop supporting the Syrian revolution and its democratic forces, regardless of the challenges, until a democratic national leadership emerges in Syria on the ruins of the tyrannical regime.”
Hariri met with the delegation at his residence in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where the Syrian opposition leaders also met with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal.
The group was led by Syrian National Coalition head Ahmad Moaz al-Khatib, and included Vice Presidents Riad Seif and Suheir Atassi, Secretary General Mustafa Sabbagh and Sheikh Ahmad Assi.
According to Hariri’s press office, discussions during the meeting focused on the goals the coalition is working to achieve, especially as events in Syria have accelerated in recent days. On the heels of the establishment last month of the National Coalition, Hariri commended efforts to unify the ranks of the Syrian opposition and the preparations in the works for a political transition.
The meeting between the Lebanese opposition leader and the National Coalition members came as Hariri’s Future Movement faced questions on the extent of their support for the Syrian revolution.
The Future Movement has long supported the rebels seeking to overthrow the regime of President Bashar Assad but had maintained its role is limited to political and moral support. But Future bloc MP Oqab Saqr admitted in remarks published Monday to arranging arms transfers to aid the Syrian opposition. The admission came after transcripts of recordings of the lawmaker in conversation with a rebel leader were published by the Lebanese daily, Al-Akhbar, which maintains Saqr was acting under Hariri’s direction. Hariri has not commented on the recording. In the meeting, Hariri underscored his complete solidarity with the rebellion and its political leadership and said Lebanon was eager for the establishment of a democratic system in the neighboring state. “We in Lebanon are looking forward to the day when the aspirations of the Syrian people to establish a democratic system and end the era of tyranny, which oppressed them for many years, are achieved.”

Saqr unlikely to lose immunity for arming rebels
December 04, 2012 /By Wassim Mroueh/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: A move to strip Future bloc MP Oqab Saqr of his immunity for providing arms to Syrian rebels is unlikely to take place soon, as Speaker Nabih Berri said he will wait for the lawmaker’s case file before deciding how to proceed. “Speaker Nabih Berri will behave accordingly whenever he receives a documented case on Saqr from the public prosecutor’s office,” a source close to the speaker said Monday.
Saqr confirmed in remarks published Monday the authenticity of recent audio recordings implicating him in the transfer of arms to Syrian rebels and said he was ready to face any legal measures.
Former MP and legal expert Mikhael Daher said Parliament is able to strip an MP of his immunity to criminal prosecution with a quorum of 65 lawmakers and a simple majority. Speaking to The Daily Star, Daher said the public prosecutor’s office can request that immunity be removed if there is a case against an MP, adding that inciting fighting in another country is a crime.
“When the General Prosecutor’s Office decides to pursue someone, it asks for him to be stripped of his parliamentary immunity,” Daher said.“Once the speaker receives a request for stripping [an MP] of [his] immunity, he informs Parliament’s secretariat about it and subjects it to a vote before the General Assembly,” Daher added.
Commenting on the authenticity of the audio recordings, Saqr told pan-Arab Ash-Sharq al-Awsat: “Yes. This is my voice and those are my words. I am not in the habit of denying my voice and words, and I am not ashamed of what I have done and am doing.”
Last week, Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar published a three-part series on recordings it obtained in which the MP can be heard discussing supplying weapons to alleged Syrian rebels. “Greetings. Go ahead ... tell me what kind of weapons you want, what are the quantities [you seek]?” Saqr asks his interlocutor, who identifies himself as Abu Numan, in one of the recordings.
“We need around 300 rocket-propelled grenades and 20 launchers. And if it is possible to provide 250,000 Russian rounds, 300 machine guns and some special pieces of arms,” Abu Numan responds.
Saqr and the man who Al-Akhbar describes as a leader of a militant group in the Syrian opposition can also be heard making arrangements for the drop-off of the weapons referred to in their conversation.
“Just like always, I am under the law ... if some want to strip me of my [parliamentary] immunity, let them do so: I am not hiding behind my immunity,” Saqr told Ash-Sharq al-Awsat. “But I ask: Do others accused of being involved in [unrest in] Syria accept to strip one [from their group] of his immunity and we both go to trial?”
Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah dismissed in October claims by March 14 coalition that his group was fighting alongside the troops of Syria’s President Bashar Assad. But he said that some party members are defending their villages, which lie on the Syrian side of the border, against attacks by Syrian rebels.
In the wake of the uprising against Assad, Lebanon adopted a policy of dissociation toward events in the neighboring country. Rival political leaders, who are divided over the Syria crisis, vowed over the summer to keep Lebanon neutral from developments in Syria. Many officials from the March 8 coalition accused Saqr and the Future Movement leader, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, of violating this policy, calling for Saqr to be stripped of his parliamentary immunity. The Future Movement has repeatedly insisted that its support to the Syrians is solely on moral and humanitarian grounds. But Al-Akhbar said Saqr was acting at the behest of Hariri.
In one of the recordings, Saqr, addressing Louay Meqdad, the spokesman for the Free Syrian Army’s Higher Military Council, says: “Hariri is losing [patience]! He wants to settle [the battle].”
But Saqr told the newspaper that Hariri had tasked him solely with providing Syrians support at the humanitarian, political and media levels.
“What I am doing in Syria reflects my absolute convictions and is first and foremost in the interest of Lebanon,” he said. “I am personally, and only personally responsible for what I am doing.”
Saqr said he would speak publicly on the subject in the near future. “I have lots to say soon and I will speak frankly.”Last month, Saqr denied any form of military involvement with the rebels and said Hariri asked him to follow up humanitarian issues.Meqdad confirmed that it was he who was speaking in the recordings. “We and Saqr share an operations room,” he told a local TV. Meqdad also said that a voice Al-Akhbar attributed to Hariri in one of the recordings is actually his own.

Judge probes Saqr's calls over arms to Syrian rebels
December 04, 2012 /The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Lebanon's Prosecutor Judge Hatem Madi Tuesday tasked the Central Criminal Investigations Bureau with examining audio recordings implicating a Lebanese lawmaker in arms transfers to Syrian rebels, judicial sources told The Daily Star. Future MP Oqab Saqr admitted Monday in comments to pan Arab Ash-Sharq al-Awsat that his voice could be heard in recordings published by a local newspaper discussing supplying weapons to alleged Syrian rebels.On the series of recordings, published by Al-Akhbar daily, Saqr and a man Al-Akhbar describes as a leader of a militant group in the Syrian opposition make arrangements for the drop-off of weapons to rebels.Investigators will listen to the audio recordings by Saqr to decide on the correct judicial measures according to Lebanese law and the judicial cooperation agreements between Lebanon and Syria, said the sources.
In his Monday comments, Saqr said he was ready to face any potential legal measures against him over the affair. The MP said he has always abided by the law and does not hide behind his parliamentary immunity.
In the wake of the uprising against President Bashar Assad, Lebanon has adopted a policy of dissociation over events in Syria. In mid-2012 rival political leaders, who are divided over the Syria crisis, vowed to keep Lebanon neutral from developments in its neighbor.The Future Movement, a major component of the Lebanese opposition, has repeatedly insisted that its support to Syrians is solely of a moral and humanitarian nature.
Speaking earlier to The Daily Star, a former MP and legal expert Mikhael Daher said the public prosecutor’s office can request that immunity be removed if there is a case against an MP, adding that inciting violence in another country is a crime.According to Daher, Parliament is able to strip an MP of his immunity from criminal prosecution with a quorum of 65 lawmakers and a simple majority.
“When the General Prosecutor’s Office decides to pursue someone, it asks for him to be stripped of his parliamentary immunity,” Daher said. “Once the speaker receives a request for stripping [an MP] of [his] immunity, he informs Parliament’s secretariat about it and subjects it to a vote before the General Assembly,” Daher added.

Lebanon's Internal Security Forcesofficial denies ISF asked for passwords
December 05, 2012/By Van Meguerditchian, Annie Slemrod/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: A day after the telecoms minister claimed that the Internal Security Forces had asked for access to passwords for email and social media sites as well as text messages, a senior security official denied Tuesday that the ISF had asked for the passwords at all.
Reports that the ISF’ Information Branch was seeking this information prompted unease about privacy, but some Internet security experts are casting doubt on whether the ministry would be able to collect this Internet data or would have the capacity to analyze it. The senior official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, confirmed that the ISF requested the content of all text messages sent in and around Beirut for two months prior to and one day after Oct. 19 to facilitate its investigation into the assassination of Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan, who was killed in a car bomb that day. He denied that the ISF had asked for any internet-based information.
Unlike past flare-ups of the data controversy – intelligence bodies and the Telecoms Ministry sporadically spar about data access – the official said the ISF had not asked for records about phone conversations because “we are now sure criminals are now calling each other on cellphones to prepare and execute assassinations in the country.”
For his part, Telecommunications Minister Nicholas Sehnaoui has said he opposes the request – whose existence the security official denied – for passwords to email and other social media sites.
Experts were divided on the extent to which such Internet data could really be accessed by the Telecommunications Ministry, and whether security bodies had the resources to analyze it for intelligence purposes.
Imad ElHajj, an associate professor of electrical and computer engineering at the American University of Beirut, cast doubt on the extent to which the Telecommunications Ministry would be able to provide such data.
Email services such as Gmail and Hotmail, he said, are theoretically secure and thus it is “not feasible” for the government to gain such a wide breadth of information.
“If somebody really wants to break in there might be ways in, but this would take much effort and resources, and would have to be done on an individual basis,” he said, adding that he suspects “most of the popular sites are secure, so with Twitter or Facebook, anything where the [web] address starts with https, you can be relatively confident it is secure.”
But security varies with the service used, and some email providers hosted within the country may be vulnerable, he added.
ElHajj also noted that investigators could easily watch and track the websites an individual visits and when.
But Nadim Kobeissi, the creator of the encrypted chat program Cryptocat, said if a security body wanted to access login information for secure https sites, “it is possible to install equipment that can mass [monitor] ... every single internet connection in Lebanon.”This would be done using what is known as a mass “HTTPS man-in-the-middle” hack that would intercept login attempts to various websites.
Kobeissi said it is unknown whether individual Internet service providers in Lebanon already use these types of methods, but foreign Internet service providers have been caught doing this. Some countries are said to use large-scale attacks that monitor all connections. Riad Bahsoun, an independent technology consultant with experience in the telecoms sector, said that although it might be difficult, “in theory if someone wants to get the information they can do so.” On the question of text messages, the experts agree. Bahsoun, ElHajj, and Kobeissi all said the content is on hand as it is stored on the servers of the state-owned companies Alfa and touch, formerly MTC.
The security source said that the Telecommunications Ministry provided security bodies with telecoms data for six months after the Cabinet’s formation in the summer of 2011, but this is the first time the ISF has asked for text messages. But Bahsoun cast doubt on whether the ISF truly has the capacity to sift through the vast quantity of text messages or emails they could amass from the request.
While he called the prospect of such access “scary” and said there is a possibility that it will “create a big disturbance in people’s minds,” he said it was unlikely that the Lebanese authorities could realistically sift through so much information. “I really don’t think they know what they have asked for.”

Lebanese Cabinet appoints Roger Salem dep. com. of ISF

December 05, 2012/By Hasan Lakkis/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: The government appointed Brig. Gen. Roger Salem as deputy commander of the Internal Security Forces Tuesday, a promotion that means he will serve as acting commander of the ISF in the absence of Commander Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi. The Cabinet appointed Salem to replace Brig. Gen. Robert Jabbour, who retired a month ago, during a session at Baabda Palace.
“The decree called for the appointment of Inspector General Brig. Gen. Roger Salem as deputy commander of the Internal Security Forces for being the most senior official among the officials in the council,” an ISF statement said. Salem, 57, will serve as deputy commander of the ISF until he reaches retirement age in eight months, a security source told The Daily Star. Although tradition dictates the appointment of a Sunni to head the ISF command council under Lebanon’s 1943 National Pact, Salem, a Greek Catholic, will serve as acting commander of the ISF in the absence of Rifi. The appointment comes following the assassination of the chief of the ISF’s Information Branch, Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan, which prompted concern that other senior security figures could be targeted. It also comes one day after Prime Minister Najib Mikati told The Daily Star that Cabinet would call for parliamentary elections to be held in June. According to ministerial sources, some ministers asked Mikati whether, in announcing his intention to call for elections, he was signaling to Rifi to resign in order to become eligible to run for Parliament. “Health Minister Ali Hasan Khalil and Labor Minister Salim Jreissati asked Mikati whether he seeks to give a signal to some security officials to submit their resignation to be eligible for running in next year’s elections,” the ministerial sources said. The sources said that several ministers also criticized Mikati’s remarks, which they argued indicate that the Cabinet has agreed to carry out the upcoming elections based on the 1960 law. The law, which was partly amended and used in 2009 parliamentary elections, is based on the winner-take-all system with qadas as the electorate. Mikati said that unless an alternative law is agreed upon, the government would carry out the elections in June based on the existing law. With March 14 boycotting parliamentary sessions in the presence of Mikati’s government and less than nine months before the Parliament’s four-year term ends, time is running out for the proposals for a new electoral law made by the Cabinet and opposition lawmakers.

Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun : Providing SMS data unconstitutional
December 05, 2012/By Hasan Lakkis/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun said Tuesday that the government cannot grant the Internal Security Forces access to SMS data, and that such a step would be a constitutional violation.
“The government cannot carry the burden of a constitutional violation: It has already inherited many constitutional violations and we cannot accept such a demand since it is related to the privacy of citizens,” Aoun added.
Speaking after the Change and Reform bloc’s meeting in Rabieh, Aoun said the ISF Information Branch wants to use the private information for the purpose of intimidation.
“The Internal Security Forces’ Information Branch has raised the level of its demands; they want information found in text messages of people. This means that all information would be used for trading and intimidation,” Aoun said. When the issue was addressed at Tuesday’s Cabinet session at Baabda Palace, Telecommunications Minister Nicolas Sehnaoui criticized the ISF’s demands for wider access to citizens’ telecoms data.
The government postponed discussing the issue to another session after Sehnaoui’s objections against it. The minister argued that such a move would infringe on the personal liberties of the Lebanese people.
While the ISF officials insist that such telecoms data is crucial for the investigation of attempted assassinations and a number of other national security threats, the issue has turned into a political battleground between the March 8 coalition and the March 14 politicians over the past two years. Earlier this week, Sehnaoui said he received threats from security officials for his refusal to provide the Information Branch access to the data. “I told the ministers during the Cabinet session the threats that were made by a security official against me,” Sehnaoui told The Daily Star. “We asked Interior Minister Marwan Charbel to take the necessary measures against this official,” Sehnaoui added. According to Sehnaoui, most ministers in the Cabinet agree with him in his rejection of handing the data to the ISF. He also said that Charbel had informed him of the identity of the official who had made the threats.
But the Future Movement accused Sehnaoui of providing political cover to the criminals who stand behind the assassination of Information Branch head Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan.
“What the security forces are asking for is an exceptional and limited request in time and place, and it is not aimed at violating the people’s privacy but it aims to protect them from criminals,” Minieh MP Ahmad Fatfat said. Speaking after the Future Movement’s weekly meeting in Beirut, Fatfat said “those who carried out the assassination of Hasan were sure that there were those who were going to defend them, and it seems like Sehnaoui is involved in this mission.” “The movement sees that the logical step under these circumstances should be to protect the lives of people and their privacy at the same time by helping uncover the identity of the criminals and the way they are working,” Fatfat said. “This happens through providing the security forces with the data they have requested,” he added.

Ansar AllahPalestinian Islamist group severs Hezbollah ties

December 05, 2012/By Mohammed Zaatari/The Daily Star
SIDON, Lebanon: The largest Palestinian Islamist group allied to Hezbollah announced Tuesday a “military, security and political disengagement from Hezbollah,” cutting all ties with the group.
In a Tuesday statement, the Ansar Allah Movement, which has been a Hezbollah ally since the mid-1980s, said “in line with our pioneering Jihadist path ... and in line with the interests of our people and nation, the Ansar Allah Movement announces its military, security and political disengagement from Hezbollah in Lebanon and severs all ties.”
Sources connected the rupture to a possible shift toward backing the Syrian uprising on the part of Ansar Allah, as well as a financial dispute.
Ansar Allah said it would “continue on the path of jihad and resistance” as an “independent Palestinian Islamist movement that will continue to uphold the rights [of Palestinians] no matter how great our sacrifice is.”They said that they would continue to use arms to liberate Palestine and to “defend their people wherever they are to achieve the goals of freedom, return and independence.”
Ansar Allah had its genesis in the 1990, when Amal and Hezbollah were battling over a string of southern villages called Iqlim al-Tuffah. Amal Movement leader Nabih Berri, who later became speaker, asked then-Fatah leader Yasser Arafat for help fighting Hezbollah, despite the fact that Amal and Fatah had just finished the three years of clashes in the Beirut and southern Palestinian refugee camps known as the “War of the Camps.”After Fatah agreed to help Amal, a Fatah officer named Jamal Suleiman opened fire on the two groups with his brigade from a hill overlooking the southern camp of Ain al-Hilweh. He announced his defection and left the camp, saying he planned to fight with Hezbollah, which eventually took over most of Iqlim al-Tuffah.
In the mid-1990s, Suleiman returned to the camp and announced the formation of the Ansar Allah Movement, with the stated goal of fighting Israel and opposing peace negotiations.
The group gained influence in Palestinian camps in the north, south and Beirut, and established headquarters in Ain al-Hilweh. They opened a small hospital in the camp called Al-Quds [Jerusalem] Hospital.
Ansar Allah, which has hundreds of armed members in Lebanon’s camps, was rumored to be involved in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires that killed 85. They claimed inspiration from Hezbollah, which provided the group with arms, money and training. Ansar Allah is also known for the yearly parades and military demonstrations it holds on the last Friday of Ramadan for Jerusalem Day, a holiday created by Iran’s late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
Palestinian sources familiar with Ansar Allah said that their decision could be motivated by a decline in monetary support from Hezbollah or a shift by the Palestinian group toward supporting the 20-month long uprising against the regime of Syrian president Bashar Assad. Suleiman’s son Khaled left Ain alHilweh to fight with Syrian rebels two months ago, but his father convinced him to return home, in what was likely an embarrassment for the allies, given Hezbollah’s close ties with the Syrian regime.
The sources said that Ansar Allah has been signaling that it would back the Syrian uprising. Hezbollah previously gave money to Ansar Allah and Suleiman monthly, but they stopped their funding this month. When Ansar Allah’s leadership asked about the halt, a Hezbollah official said that a discussion was needed before sending money in light of “changes.” According to the sources, Ansar Allah believes Hezbollah wants to impose new conditions on it in return for continued financial support. These conditions are still unclear, but other sources who are familiar with the relationship said that ties have cooled recently and Hezbollah has begun to enhance ties with other Islamist Palestinian groups in Ain al-Hilweh such as Usbat al-Ansar and the Islamic Jihadist Movement. Hezbollah officials have met several times with these groups and are providing them with financial and other support, antagonizing Ansar Allah.

Syria considering returning bodies of Lebanese fighters
December 04, 2012/ The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Syria is considering handing over the bodies of Lebanese nationals killed in an ambush in Syria’s Tal Kalakh, the country’s ambassador said Tuesday.
“Syria’s Cabinet is examining a request by Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour to hand over the bodies of the fighters who died in Tal Kalakh, for humanitarian reasons,” Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdel-Karim Ali said in a statement. Mansour contacted the Syrian ambassador Monday to forward a request to Syrian authorities to hand over the bodies of the fighters from the north Lebanon city of Tripoli “for humanitarian reasons.” Ali said that the Syrian Cabinet is examining the case and will determine later the right steps and mechanisms to address the issue. “The steps will be in coordination with minister Mansour,” said the ambassador. Syrian state television broadcast images Sunday of more than five dead bodies with Lebanese identification, reporting that the men were among 21 Lebanese Salafist fighters who fell into a Syrian Army ambush last Friday.
Amid conflicting reports about the number of casualties, Prime Minister Najib Mikati Monday asked the International Committee of the Red Cross to help retrieve the bodies of the slain Lebanese and obtain information about the fate of the others. Also Monday, the families of the slain Lebanese staged a sit-in in Tripoli’s Tal Square, demanding that Lebanese authorities act to reveal the fate of their loved ones.
 

Prime Minister Najib Mikati says to call for elections June 9
December 04, 2012 01:46 AM
By Mirella Hodeib/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The 2013 parliamentary polls will take place as scheduled on June 9 based on the 1960 law if no alternative is agreed, Prime Minister Najib Mikati told The Daily Star in an interview Monday.
“We will call on the Lebanese electorate to cast their votes to elect a new Parliament on Sunday, June 9, 2013, based on the current [1960] law,” Mikati said. “As long as this government exists, and unless an alternative is found, we will carry out elections on time, in June, based on the existing law.”
Mikati’s announcement is expected to spark the ire of his partners in the government, the March 8 alliance, who argue that the modified version of the 1960 law according to which the 2009 elections were held fails to ensure fair representation. The leader of a main group in the Cabinet, Progressive Socialist Party chief MP Walid Jumblatt, however, favors the 1960 law, and Mikati’s rivals in the Future Movement of Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri also back the legislation. Mikati, who reiterated he will run for elections in his hometown of Tripoli, explained that unless a new government is formed or a new electoral law is devised, polls should take place according to “existing resources.” Responding to calls by the March 14 coalition and more recently Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai for the formation of a new government to oversee next year’s vote, Mikati said only dialogue among various factions could make such a scenario possible. The March 14 alliance has accused Mikati’s government of complicity with the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad in the Oct. 19 assassination of intelligence chief Wissam al-Hassan and has called for the resignation of the Cabinet and the formation of a neutral salvation government.
Supporters of the anti-Assad coalition have since been camping meters away from Mikati’s residence in Tripoli to press for his resignation.
But Mikati is unfazed by the protests, saying that the March 14’s campaigns fail to serve their purpose.
“Matters should not be dealt with in such a manner,” the prime minister said. “If you want a new government and a new electoral law that ensures fair representation, dialogue and communication are imperative.”
Mikati also urged Hezbollah and other parties who are allegedly involved in the ongoing fighting in Syria to abide by the Lebanese government’s dissociation policy.
“We don’t have any proof that Hezbollah is fighting in Syria,” he said. “But in case they are, I personally call on Hezbollah and other parties to dissociate themselves from events in Syria.”
As for Future bloc MP Oqab Saqr confirming the authenticity of audio recordings implicating him in the transfer of weapons to Syrian rebels, Mikati said the Lebanese government’s dissociation policy with regard to Syria was clear to all, adding that it cannot be held responsible for “individual acts.”
“MP Saqr has admitted a role in arming Syrian rebels and he is operating outside Lebanese territories,” Mikati said. “The Lebanese government cannot force individuals to abide by its policy. We cannot monitor the activities of each and every Lebanese.” Mikati, who admitted that a spillover of the turmoil in Syria was unavoidable, said the effects could be drastically reduced through unity.
He also described the weekend killing by the Syrian Army of a group of Lebanese fighters who sneaked into Syria through the border region of Tal Kalakh as “very unfortunate.” The majority of the men were members of Salafist cells operating in Tripoli and other regions of north Lebanon.
He said that while his government had no contact with those organizations, he, acting in his capacity as a Tripoli lawmaker, has repeatedly urged Salafist organizations to shun violence. “While I understand their [Salafists] frustrations and concerns, I have repeatedly urged them to pursue a nonviolent path and follow the veritable teachings and principles of Islam.”
Commenting on the growing numbers of Syrian refugees crossing into Lebanon, Mikati said the Lebanese government has asked donor countries and organizations for $178 million to cater to the needs of 200,000 refugees in 2013.He said the ministries of social affairs, health and education in addition to the Higher Relief Committee have come up with a study detailing the needs of refugees. He added the plan has won the praise of representatives of donor countries who convened at the Grand Serail earlier Monday to discuss aid to Syrian refugees.
“Everyone is aware of Lebanon’s economic woes and the budget deficit,” Mikati said. “So if we are to continue taking in more refugees we need help on various levels.”
Mikati added his government was “brainstorming” ideas that would ensure social justice while not jeopardizing the already suffering state budget in response to the waves of protests in recent weeks by the Union Coordination Committee, a coalition of teachers and public sector employees, calling for the Cabinet to refer a draft law to increase salaries to Parliament.
He also revealed that two Turkish electricity-generating barges, which are expected to partially solve Lebanon’s electricity crisis, will head to Lebanon “in the next weeks.”
“They got delayed because the downpayment hasn’t been disbursed, but now that we transferred the necessary funds they should be docking in the next few weeks,” he said.

Three killed in fresh Tripoli fighting
December 05, 2012/By Misbah al-Ali, Antoine Amrieh The Daily Star
TRIPOLI, Lebanon: Three Lebanese were killed and at least 10 wounded Tuesday in fresh armed clashes between supporters and opponents of Syrian President Bashar Assad in Tripoli, further stoking tensions in the north of the country. Intermittent sniping began in the morning between supporters of Assad in the neighborhood of Jabal Mohsen and rivals in Bab al-Tabbaneh, and the conflict developed into intense fighting in the afternoon and evening. The Lebanese Army responded by beefing up its presence and responding to sources of gunfire. The renewed violence is the seventh round of fighting to erupt between the two neighborhoods since the uprising against Assad’s government began 20 months ago. Tensions had already been running high in Lebanon’s second city since the weekend when news broke that a group of Salafist fighters from Tripoli who had gone to support rebels had been killed by the Syrian army near the Syrian town of Takl Kalakh. Syrian state television broadcast images Sunday of more than five dead bodies shown with Lebanese IDs, reporting that the men were among 21 Lebanese Salafist fighters who fell into a Syrian Army ambush last Friday.Conflicting reports on the exact number of dead and the circulation Tuesday of alleged photos and videos of mutilated bodies of the dead further exacerbated the situation.
Fighting in the Tripoli neighborhoods intensified in the afternoon, with gunmen exchanging rocket-propelled grenades. Mohammad Ibrahim from Jabal Mohsen, and Abdel-Rahman Nassouh and Khaled Mustafa from Bab al-Tabbaneh, were killed in the clashes. Sniper fire made the highway connecting Tripoli to Akkar inaccessible, and bullets reached the Zahrieh neighborhood, which is some distance from the fighting. Rival gunmen built sandbag barriers on both sides of Syria Street, which separates the two neighborhoods, in an act that is repeated with every new wave of violence.
Schools, Lebanese University faculties and shops close to the scene of clashes closed earlier than usual and streets quickly emptied. Private and Public schools in Tripoli canceled Wednesday’s classes.
The Lebanese Army said in a statement that it would respond to sources of gunfire from any side. “The Army Command warns the gunmen against going too far in tampering with the security and stability of the city, and stresses that it will strictly respond to sources of gunfire from any side,” the Army said.
The statement urged residents of Tripoli to fully cooperate with measures taken by the Army to preserve their security.
“The Army units responded to sources of gunfire with suitable weapons,” the Army said, adding that it erected checkpoints and continues to organize patrols, raid areas where there is gunfire and boost its presence in tense areas. Speaking during a Cabinet session he chaired at the Grand Serail, Prime Minister Najib Mikati urged residents of Tripoli, his home city, to stay calm and be wary of rumors and attempts to stoke tension and spread violence elsewhere in the city.
“The Lebanese Army and Internal Security Forces have taken all the appropriate measures to restore security and prevent any attempt to spark strife in Tripoli,” he said.
Separately, Syria’s Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdel-Karim Ali said his country was considering handing over the bodies of Lebanese fighters killed in an ambush in Tal Kalakh. “Based on the request of Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour to help in retrieving the bodies of the fighters who died in Tal Kalakh ... The government of my country is considering resolving this matter for humanitarian reasons,” Ali said in a statement. “We will later specify steps to be taken in cooperation with Minister Mansour.”The National News Agency reported that five names of those killed had been revealed following discussions between Mikati and Mansour.
They are Malek Hajj Dib,23, Abdel-Karim Ibrahim, 18, Abdel-Rahman al-Hasan, 22, Youssef Abu Arida, 26 and Bilal Ghoul, 22.
Samar Qadi, the spokesperson of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Lebanon, said the committee was considering Mikati’s request to retrieve the men’s bodies and to ask about the other Lebanese. “We do not take part in negotiations to retrieve the bodies ... if we were asked to retrieve the bodies and the conditions for us to do so are met, then we do it,” she told The Daily Star. “These conditions are that all sides make the request and if the security situation permits [us] to do so,” she said. Speaking during the Cabinet session, Mikati said the government would spare no effort to uncover the fate of Lebanese nationals.
“We reiterate our call for all the Lebanese to distance our country and ourselves from interfering in events in Syria so that we do not pay the price of a conflict that we cannot confront,” the prime minister said.
Mikati said Cabinet adheres to the policy of dissociating Lebanon from unrest in neighboring Syria to protect the country and it citizens from the repercussions of the conflict. The premier began a two-day-official visit to Italy Tuesday evening. President Michel Sleiman followed up on the security situation in the north with relevant officials. He was briefed by Army Commander Gen. Jean Kahwagi on measures to control the security situation there and to prevent arms smuggling in order to preserve stability and civil peace.
For its part, the Future parliamentary bloc of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri said the Cabinet and Hezbollah were responsible for the “disaster” that happened in Tal Kalakh.
After its weekly meeting, the bloc said the government had ignored calls to deploy the Lebanese Army along borders with Syria to prevent arms smuggling and to prevent gunmen crossing from Lebanon and Syria and vice versa.It added that Hezbollah’s “sending gunmen to fight alongside the Syrian army” has prompted some young men in Lebanon to join the rebels in Syria and defend the oppressed. The bloc urged young men in Lebanon not to fight alongside Syrian rebels, saying that they are not in need of fighters.
 

Terror attacks quadrupled since 9/11
Reuters Published: 12.05.12/Ynetnews
Global Terrorism Index shows disconcerting spike in terror activity worldwide; says overall number of deaths down from 2007 peak
The number of terrorist attacks each year has more than quadrupled in the decade since September 11, 2001, a study released on Tuesday said, with Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan the most affected.
The number of annual deaths in attacks, however, peaked in 2007 – the height of the Iraq conflict – and has been falling ever since. The survey reported 7,473 fatalities in 2011, 25% down on 2007. That figure included dead suicide bombers and other attackers.
Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India and Yemen were the five countries most affected by terrorism in descending order, it said, based on a measure giving weightings to number of attacks, fatalities and injuries and level of property damage. The Global Terrorism Index, published on Tuesday by the US and the Australia-based Institute for Economics and Peace think tank, ranked countries based on data from the Global Terrorism Database run by a consortium based at the University of Maryland, a commonly used reference by security researchers. The US military interventions pursued as part of the West's anti-al Qaeda "war on terror", the researchers suggested, may have simply made matters worse – while whether they made the US homeland safer was impossible to prove.
30% of terrorism deaths – in Iraq
"After 9/11, terrorist activity fell back to pre-2000 levels until after the Iraq invasion, and has since escalated dramatically," Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of theInstitute for Economics and Peace, said.
"Iraq accounts for about a third of all terrorist deaths over the last decade, and Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan account for over 50% of fatalities."
The study found terrorism incidents numbered 982 in 2002, causing 3,823 deaths, rising to 4,564 terrorist incidents globally in 2011, resulting in 7,473 deaths. The researchers used the University of Maryland definition of "terrorism": "The threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a non-state actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation". It did not include casualties from government-backed action such as aerial bombing or other killings. The study said its methodology allowed researchers the scope to exclude actions that could be seen as insurgency, hate crime or organized crime and incidents about which insufficient information was available. The upswing in attacks in both Afghanistan and Pakistan only occurred after the Iraq war, the study showed, coming at largely the same time as heightened US-backed military campaigns there by NATO and the Pakistani government respectively. Situation in Syria, Yemen worsening .The findings suggested foreign powers should think twice before intervening militarily, Killelea said, even in countries such as Syria, already seeing widespread bloodshed. Unless the conflict was brought to a swift end, terror attacks might actually increase, he said. The greatest deterioration in 2011 took place in Syria and Yemen, the report said. Yemen has seen a dramatic upsurge in al Qaeda-linked activity in recent years, while Syrian rebels fighting President Bashar Assad have increasingly turned to suicide attacks and bombings. Of the 158 countries surveyed, only 31 had not experienced a single event classified as a "terrorist act" since 2001, the report said.
Even when the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington were taken into account, North America remained the least-affected region over the period studied. Western Europeans were 19 times more likely to die in a terrorist attack than North Americans, the report said. Aside from the United States – whose rating improved sharply over the decade as the casualties of 2001 were no longer factored in – the greatest improvements were seen in Algeria and Colombia.
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How Would Assad Use Chemical Weapons?
Jeffrey White/December 4, 2012/Washington Istitute
Amid new chemical weapons activity in Syria, Washington must prepare for the practical implications of acting on its warnings.
U.S. intelligence has detected increased activity at Syrian chemical warfare facilities, raising concerns about the regime potentially using chemical weapons (CW) against the opposition. Although such an action would likely only be carried out in extremis, Bashar al-Assad and his cohorts are approaching that very status. Given the regime's lack of regard for the casualties it has already inflicted and the value it places on its own survival above all else, the United States must prepare for the growing possibility of CW use in Syria.
WHY NOW?
After twenty months of internal war, the regime is in an increasingly difficult military situation. It suffered substantial reverses in November, losing territory, positions, troops, and equipment, including combat aircraft. The fighting capacity of its forces appears to be diminishing, and its standard tactic of bombing and shelling opposition areas, primarily civilian, is becoming less effective and more costly due to rebel antiaircraft fire and other tactics. As a result, pressure is undoubtedly rising within the regime to take different and more effective action -- that has been the pattern for Damascus since the emergence of armed opposition in summer 2011.
THE REGIME'S CHEMICAL ARSENAL
Syria has a formidable CW capability. Its large inventory reportedly includes the nerve agents sarin and possibly VX, as well as mustard gas, a blister agent. Means of delivery include aerial bombs, missiles (e.g., Scuds), and artillery shells and rockets.
The Syrian military is trained to use these weapons and has the doctrine, forces, and munitions to carry out such attacks. These forces can reach anywhere in the country, and there is very little the opposition Free Syrian Army could do to stop them. Without intelligence warnings from external sources, rebel combatants and civilians would be highly vulnerable to surprise chemical attacks, increasing the chances for major casualties.
CW SCENARIOS
The regime could use chemical weapons in a variety of ways, from a limited or demonstration attack to large-scale offensive or defensive use to fundamentally change the military situation. At present, reports that the regime is weaponizing relatively small quantities of agent suggest the former. Limited CW use could be controlled better in terms of effects and visibility. The regime might also find it easier to explain away small-scale strikes as the work of "terrorists" or as a justifiable response to the military situation and the threat to the country.
One form of limited attack could be a strike against a specific military target, aimed at affecting a local but important tactical situation. Such an attack would also demonstrate that the regime was ready, willing, and able to carry out such actions.
The regime could also conduct small-scale strikes on civilian targets to intimidate the population or punish them for supporting the rebels. This would be an escalation from the regime's routine use of explosives and incendiary weapons against civilians and could produce substantially greater casualties. It would undoubtedly have profound psychological effects on an essentially defenseless population.
As for broader CW use, the regime could employ such weapons to support ground offensives in key areas where its forces have been unable to achieve success via conventional tactics (e.g., around Maarrat al-Numan in Idlib province; in and around Aleppo city; in Deir al-Zour province, perhaps near Abu Kamal or Mayadin). It could use them to support defensive operations in places where rebel forces are on the offensive (e.g., the relatively remote Raqqa province) or have regime forces surrounded (as happened at the 46th Regiment base near Atareb in Aleppo province and the artillery fire base at Mayadin; in both cases, the positions fell to the rebels after prolonged siege and final assault). Using CW in close proximity to its own forces would be risky, but the military has some chemical defense equipment and training and might be able to provide a measure of protection.
The regime could also use persistent CW agents for area denial, striking lines of communication, shelters, and medical and food facilities to prevent rebels and civilians from using them. Finally, local military commanders operating independently of the government could decide to use CW on their own, whether out of revenge, frustration, fear, or other motivations. This would of course depend on access to munitions and delivery means, but in conditions where units are isolated or the chain of command is breaking down, such use is possible.
REGIME CONSTRAINTS
Unfortunately, the international community's track record so far may have given Assad a bad lesson regarding the potential consequences of CW use. The regime's massive escalation of violence throughout the war -- including use of field artillery against civilians, aerial bombing of population centers, and routine use of cluster munitions -- has gone largely unpunished, and Damascus has likely concluded that raising the stakes even higher would carry few real repercussions. It may therefore believe it can get away with limited CW use.
In theory, various political constraints could deter the regime from such a course. These include a likely irreparable break with the country's entire Sunni population, a probable rupture in relations with China and Russia, and great embarrassment for its allies Iran and Hizballah. More important, CW use would probably mobilize the West and Sunni Arab states to directly intervene in the conflict, sealing the regime's fate. Additionally, all those involved in ordering and carrying out CW attacks would risk international judicial action -- a prospect that could spur some regime members to mount a coup. Finally, the regime would have to deal with the massive public relations disaster that CW use would bring.
There are also military constraints. Chemical weapons are not just another device that can be pulled from storage and fired -- regime forces must also consider accuracy and reliability issues, meteorological factors (wind, humidity, temperature), agent choices (persistent vs. nonpersistent), and consequence-management issues (treatment of casualties, force protection, decontamination).
IMPACT OF CW USE
If the regime does decide to use chemical weapons, it could have significant effects on the military situation. The rebels have no protection against CW and no training to deal with such weapons; they barely even have experience with the effects of riot-control agents and smoke. They would be highly vulnerable, and the regime could achieve tactical or broader gains.
Politically, CW use could weaken the opposition, undermining the all-important link between the civilian population and the armed rebels. The significance of this deterioration would depend on the resilience of the population, which so far has proven steadfast in the face of all regime attacks.
There would also be humanitarian consequences, including probable refugee flows out of affected areas, the need to treat casualties, and decontamination requirements. The ability of NGOs and humanitarian groups to continue operations in such conditions would be tested.
CONCLUSION
Yesterday, President Obama reiterated that the United States would not accept the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime, and that there would be consequences for such use. Although Washington issued similar warnings in the past, the situation has changed, and the administration must be prepared to have its declaration tested. CW use is by no means a given, but the potential has gone up substantially and will grow as the regime's fall comes closer.
Upholding the U.S. declaration requires readiness to commit armed forces to eliminating Syria's CW capability and punishing the regime and its forces for using them. It means having military assets earmarked or in place to act quickly with overwhelming force, and to deal with the post-attack environment. It does not mean relying on diplomacy as the sole or even main response. Failure to respond with force to any use of chemical weapons would be dire. The regime would see it as a signal to conduct more attacks, and the opposition would see it as a complete abandonment.
**Jeffrey White is a defense fellow at The Washington Institute and a former senior defense intelligence officer.

Correcting the Brotherhood’s reading of Egyptian society
By Ali Ibrahim/Asharq Alawsat
In describing the political crisis that Egypt is currently witnessing, it can be said that everybody has climbed the tree but do not know how to get down. This demonstrates the escalatory positions being taken by the competing political forces over the constitutional declaration, the constitutional referendum, the Constituent Assembly and the shape of the future state that should follow the present transitional phase.
On the part of the Egyptian President, his climbing of the tree is represented by the escalation that followed the strong response from the opposition powers – civil parties and forces – to his constitutional declaration in which he grasped all three branches of government. He then escalated matters with a referendum on the constitution that the Constituent Assembly rushed to complete in just two days, after it had previously been granted two months to do so. In response, the other forces did not find any other option but to also adopt an escalatory position, calling for a boycott of this referendum and a million-man protest today to march to the presidential palace. This comes amidst fears of clashes and violence, particularly if the Islamist forces – represented by the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist parties – take the decision to confront this march with a counter-march.
The current political and social situation is epitomized by division, and this is something that may have been present since the first referendum on what should come first, elections or the constitution? The gap between the two parties has increased until reaching the point of tension and the current crisis. Furthermore, it seems that there is no clear exit from this as long as there is no willingness for genuine compromise and concessions, in order to achieve a degree of national consensus and emerge unscathed from this dangerous situation, which everybody is talking about.
The natural situation that should have been in place two years after the 25th January revolution and a stuttering transitional stage would have seen legitimacy gradually being transferred from the public squares to the elected authorities and institutions, and that has not happened. In fact, the state of division and tension has reached unprecedented levels: the judiciary is in conflict with the presidency, whilst Islamist powers are launching fierce attacks against it; and the state cannot impose its authority. The best example of this is the inability of the Constitutional Court to hold its sessions; and although the army is monitoring the situation, it would be very difficult to intervene in such a case of societal division. A huge part of the reason why we have reached this state of affairs is due to a mistaken reading of the situation by the Muslim Brotherhood, particularly regarding society, its political forces and the traditions of its institutes. Nobody can accept the assault and transgression that occurred in front of the Constitutional Court and put simply it is the lowest form of demagoguery. In addition to this, the signs of tension are clear to see amongst normal Egyptians, who view this as an attempt to abduct them down a path that is inconsistent with the makeup of their society.
This may be the result of delusions of grandeur following the results the Brotherhood achieved at the ballot box at the parliamentary and Shura Council elections, which took place during abnormal and confused conditions. This may explain the Brotherhood’s mistaken reading of the situation, which may also be the reason for the escalation on the part of the presidency, putting forward this disputed constitution for referendum, without first obtaining a reasonable assessment of the response of the other powers, who have found themselves in a position where their only choice is further escalation. Nobody can predict what the next few days will bring, or what will happen during today’s protests, however if this constitutional referendum takes place amidst the boycott of the opposition and a large part of the judiciary, then it will always be a constitution of questionable legitimacy, whilst it would also not be able to put an end to the state of division and tension. On the contrary, it will only serve to increase this. Constitutions must be based on national consensus for these are not things that can be changed every few months. The solution to the crisis is to search for ways to climb down from the tree by putting forward political concessions, particularly on the part of the ruling party. This must take into account the fact that the vision for the future of the country must not be a partisan one, or one put forward by a certain group that has come to power and believes that this is its opportunity after 80 years on the street. Instead, there must be a comprehensive vision that takes everybody into account, and does not contradict the social and political development of the country.

NATO warns Syria not to use chemical weapons
BEIRUT, (AP) — NATO told Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Tuesday that any use of chemical weapons in his fight against encroaching rebel forces would be met by an immediate international response.
The warning from NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen came as U.S. government sources said Washington had information that Syria was making what could be seen as preparations to use its chemical arsenal.
Syrian forces meanwhile bombarded rebel districts near Damascus in a sustained counter-attack to stem rebel gains around Assad's power base.
Syrian state media said a rebel mortar attack on a school had killed 28 students and a teacher.
International concern over Syria's intentions has been heightened by reports that its chemical weapons have been moved and could be prepared for use.
"The possible use of chemical weapons would be completely unacceptable for the whole international community and if anybody resorts to these terrible weapons I would expect an immediate reaction from the international community," Rasmussen told reporters at the start of a meeting of alliance foreign ministers in Brussels.
The chemical threat made it urgent for the alliance to send Patriot anti-missile missiles to Turkey, Rasmussen said.
The French Foreign Ministry referred to "possible movements on military bases storing chemical weapons in Syria" and said the international community would react if the weapons were used.
U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday told Assad not to use chemical weapons, without saying how the United States might respond. The Foreign Ministry in Damascus said it would never use such weapons against Syrians.
The U.S. has collected what has been described as highly classified intelligence information demonstrating that Syria is making what could be construed as preparations to use elements of its extensive chemical weapons arsenal, two U.S. government sources briefed on the issue said.
One of the sources said that there was no question that the US "Intelligence community" had received information pointing to "preparations" under way in Syria related to chemical weapons. The source declined to specify what kind of preparations had been reported, or how close the intelligence indicated the Syrians were to deploying or even using the weapons.
Western military experts say Syria has four suspected chemical weapons sites, and it can produce chemical weapons agents including mustard gas and sarin, and possibly also VX nerve agent. The CIA has estimated that Syria possesses several hundred liters of chemical weapons and produces hundreds of tonnes of agents annually.
FLIGHTS SUSPENDED
The fighting around Damascus has led foreign airlines to suspend flights and prompted the United Nations and European Union to reduce their presence in the capital, adding to a sense that the fight is closing in.
The army fightback came a day after the Syrian foreign ministry spokesman was reported to have defected in a potentially embarrassing blow to the government.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 200 people were killed across Syria on Monday, more than 60 of them around Damascus. Assad's forces bombarded districts to the south-east of the capital on Tuesday, near to the international airport, and in the rebel bastion of Daraya to the south-west.
Opposition footage posted on the Internet showed a multiple rocket launcher fire 20 rockets, which activists said was filmed at the Mezze military airport in Damascus.
Reuters could not independently verify the footage due to the government's severe reporting restrictions.
In central Damascus, shielded for many months from the full force of a civil war in which 40,000 people have been killed, one resident reported hearing several loud explosions.
"I have heard four or five thunderous blows. It could be barrel bombs," she said, referring to makeshift bombs which activists say Assad's forces have dropped from helicopters on rebel-dominated areas.
The state news agency said that 28 students and a teacher were killed near the capital when rebels fired a mortar bomb on a school. Rebels have targeted government-held residential districts of the capital.
The mainly Sunni Muslim rebel forces have made advances in recent weeks, seizing military bases, including some close to Damascus, from forces loyal to Assad, who is from Syria's Alawite minority linked to Shi'ite Islam.
Faced with creeping rebel gains across the north and east of the country, and the growing challenge around the capital, Assad has increasingly resorted to air strikes against the insurgents.
A diplomat in the Middle East said Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi had left the country and defected, while the British-based Observatory said it had information that he flew from Beirut on Monday afternoon heading for London.
In Beirut, a diplomat said Lebanese officials had confirmed that Makdissi spent several days in Beirut before leaving on Monday, but could not confirm his destination.
"We're aware of reports that he has defected and may be coming to the UK. We're seeking clarification," a Foreign Office spokeswoman in London said.
Makdissi was the public face to the outside world of Assad's government as it battled the 20-month-old uprising. But he had barely appeared in public for several weeks before Monday's report of his defection.
He had little influence in a system largely run by the security apparatus and the military. But Assad's opponents will see the loss of such a high profile figure, if confirmed, as further evidence of a system crumbling from within.
ESCALATED VIOLENCE
The United Nations and European Union both said they were reducing their presence in Syria in response to the escalated violence around the capital.
A spokesman for U.N. humanitarian operations said the move would not stop aid deliveries to areas which remained accessible to relief convoys.
"U.N.-funded aid supplies delivered through SARC (Syrian Arab Red Crescent) and other charities are still moving daily where the roads are open," Jens Laerke told Reuters in Geneva.
"We have not suspended our operation, we are reducing the non-essential international staff."
Three remaining international staff at the European Union delegation, who stayed on in Damascus after the departure of most Western envoys, crossed the border into Lebanon on Tuesday after pulling out of the Syrian capital.

The exclusionary media and the Muslim Brotherhood's popularity
By Dr. Hamad Al-Majid/Asharq Alawsat
Influential liberals in the Egyptian media have given President Mursi and the Islamist trend a gift on a silver platter. Unbalanced media coverage, performed by the liberal elite’s politicians, writers and intellectuals across their huge and vocal media platform, has prompted the crowds of Egyptians who were previously undecided to finally point the direction of their compass towards supporting President Mursi and his controversial decrees. This was shown clearly in the mass demonstration at Cairo University Square last Saturday, which was organized by various Islamist movements, where banners were raised against the biased stars of the Egyptian media.
Furthermore, the liberal media’s fierce antagonism towards political Islamists such as the Brotherhood has also released the Salafi genie from its bottle. Previously, the Salafis did not move a muscle in politics and had no interest in it, but recently they have acted politically with great fervor and declared their strong alignment with the Muslim Brotherhood. This is remarkable given that anyone familiar with relations between the two trends would be well aware of the systematic “friction” between them in the past.
No one imagined there would now be such intimacy between these two movements, yet the liberal media, fiercely biased in its approach, has contributed to this phenomenon.
The fatal error that a number of Egyptian satellite channels and newspapers have committed is that they expressed the sentiments of their owners and mentors rather than those of the Egyptian street. However, it must be said that in light of President Mursi’s recent sweeping constitutional decrees, these media outlets dealt with the subject intelligently and calmly. They deliberately avoided adopting a strong bias in their choice of topics and guests, and thus they drew the attention of new segments of the Egyptian people who were previously undecided, or at least managed to keep them neutral instead of pushing them to favor the Brotherhood.
Many of those in the television and print media imagined that their mere control was enough to propagandize their agenda, market change and brainwash their audience, as long as their voice was loud and audible, but this is not accurate. Media dominance to the extent of severe exclusion can backfire completely, like a harsh, exclusionary ruler who thinks that his control, authority and the exclusion of his opponents will strengthen his position against them, whereas the truth is the opposite. The Mubarak regime, with its severe policy of exclusion, its manipulation of parliamentary elections and the imprisonment of its Brotherhood opponents, undoubtedly contributed to boosting the Brotherhood’s popularity. This popularity no doubt contributed among other reasons to Mursi coming to power after the ouster of the Mubarak regime, whereupon he has been nothing but an enemy and a source of sorrow for them [the remnants of the former regime]. This is exactly what the liberal media machine is doing in Egypt…It is true that it has no whip in its hand, but its oppression has been generated by its exclusion, its lies, its tendency to amplifying the small and downplay the large, its denial of rival achievements, and its curses and insults. This behavior automatically instills sympathy for the Brotherhood among the target audience.


Dignity and freedom for all
Rafif Jouejati, December 5, 2012/Now Lebanon
We, as Syrians, must not limit our post-Assad narrative to simply repeating the goals of the revolution; we must act to implement them. Dignity and freedom for all must be more than a platitude or a sound bite; it must include dignity and freedom for women. Democracy implies that all citizens are equal before the law, and by extension, enjoy equal opportunity. We cannot address human rights in Syria without discussing women’s rights, just as we cannot expose human rights abuses without calling to attention the specific abuses against women. We too have been the victims of Assad’s brutality: detention, sexualized torture, and systematic destruction of our homes, our children, and our society.
Until the formation of the National Coalition for the Syrian Revolution, the Syrian National Council (SNC) was the main opposition group abroad. It had little regard for women, as evidenced by its abysmal failure to give women any significant voice or vote. The SNC, dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood and its allies, did not promise much for a free and democratic Syria unless one was a member or a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood. If nothing else, by its very name the Muslim Brotherhood excludes women and non-Muslims. There is no dignity, freedom or democracy for all in this. The new National Coalition faces similar challenges. It can begin to overcome them by refusing to marginalize women and by including them in every step of political strategies and negotiations. The many important tasks ahead of the National Coalition must include bringing gender equality into its efforts to declare a government in exile. Thus far, women have been excluded from real positions of power, and key opposition members, many of whom have not been in Syria for 30 or 40 years, have made such inane claims as “nobody inside will accept that women have 50 percent representation, ” as one SNC member said during a meeting.
Who is “nobody”? More than half of Syrian society is made up of women. Women’s representation should be equal to the number of women. If women make up 50 percent of the population, their representation should be 50 percent, not “negotiated” to a lesser number predetermined to keep men in power. Indeed, women must be recognized and empowered as a political and economic force in the rebuilding phase, if for no other reason than dictated by the practicality of having so many men killed in combat or in torture centers—otherwise, Free Syria risks marginalizing more than half its population.
The increasingly Islamist armed resistance is not reassuring. With some groups calling for an Islamist state in Aleppo, we, as women of all faiths, need to stand up to this. We must question how such a state would achieve democracy, dignity or freedom for anyone who holds different beliefs or values. Neighboring Iran and other regional theocracies provide a glimpse of what that future would look like if we do not make our voices heard now. We cannot merely rely on Syria’s traditional cultural mosaic, or the progressive thinking in Syria’s larger cities, to lead the way to full equality once Assad is gone.
We can nostalgically and romantically call up such female personalities as Nazeq Al-Abd, who fought with the Syrian rebel army against the French military in 1920 and who was dubbed The Syrian Joan of Arc. We can extol the virtues of a society that is far more progressive than, say, Saudi Arabia’s, where women cannot drive, let alone participate in the political process. But what does this mean, on a practical level, in post-Assad Syria?
We need to focus on the meaning of equality and find a way to implement it in Syria. Through education, we can change misogynistic notions that women are not suited for certain tasks because “they are emotional and therefore make decisions based on emotion” or because their “physiology prevents them from performing the same tasks as men,” as one anti-Assad activist claimed. Notions that women are the “weaker” sex have been perpetrated by men around the world since the beginning of time, and we have an opportunity to rise to the challenge and chip away at that myth in Free Syria. After all, Free Syria will require the active participation of all its citizens, regardless of gender, ethnic background or religious belief.
Through education, training and empowerment, women can help Syrian society shed the notion that they are equal participants simply because they raise children or keep tidy homes. Women will continue to work in administrative jobs, or as teachers, nurses and volunteers. But they also must take leadership roles in business, government and society. Let us see Syrian women as CEOs, doctors, mayors, governors, ministers, and yes, president. Let us see women working as peers, side-by-side with men, in professional, political and domestic capacities. Let us see Syrian women demand, and receive, the right to the same education, opportunities and pay as their male counterparts. Let us put to rest the old ideas that women must be hidden, covered or isolated to protect family honor. Instead, let us measure our honor by our work ethic, by how we treat others, and by our accomplishments, not just in the home, but in the hospital, in Parliament, in the ministry and the president’s office. Let us continue the good work of our revolutionary heroines Razan Zeitouneh of the Local Coordination Committees in Syria, Suhair Atassi of the Syrian Revolution General Commission and National Coalition, Rima Dali of the Nonviolence Movement, and Thwaiba Kanafani of the Free Syrian Army. Let us continue to honor and support the thousands of other women who have served as equal contributors to the revolution. All of these women have risked their lives and been subjected to the same abysmal conditions as their male counterparts.
The Assad regime has destroyed nearly all of Syria—from the lives of tens of thousands killed, disappeared and displaced, to our infrastructure, to the bonds keeping our communities together. This murderous regime has destroyed so much that we will need to rebuild our country, society and institutions from scratch. Syrian women, let us stand together and seize the opportunity to introduce and implement full equality. Let us accept nothing less. Let us rebuild our country with dignity, freedom and democracy for all—ALL—Syrians.
*Rafif Jouejati is the English-language spokesperson for the Local Coordination Committees in Syria, and the director of the Foundation to Restore Equality and Education in Syria (FREE-Syria).