LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
August 31/12

Bible Quotation for today/
Saint Mark 6/14-29.: "King Herod heard of it, for Jesus’ name had become known. Some were saying, ‘John the baptizer has been raised from the dead; and for this reason these powers are at work in him.’ But others said, ‘It is Elijah.’ And others said, ‘It is a prophet, like one of the prophets of old.’ But when Herod heard of it, he said, ‘John, whom I beheaded, has been raised.’ For Herod himself had sent men who arrested John, bound him, and put him in prison on account of Herodias, his brother Philip’s wife, because Herod had married her. For John had been telling Herod, ‘It is not lawful for you to have your brother’s wife.’ And Herodias had a grudge against him, and wanted to kill him. But she could not, for Herod feared John, knowing that he was a righteous and holy man, and he protected him. When he heard him, he was greatly perplexed; and yet he liked to listen to him. But an opportunity came when Herod on his birthday gave a banquet for his courtiers and officers and for the leaders of Galilee. When his daughter Herodias came in and danced, she pleased Herod and his guests; and the king said to the girl, ‘Ask me for whatever you wish, and I will give it.’ And he solemnly swore to her, ‘Whatever you ask me, I will give you, even half of my kingdom.’ She went out and said to her mother, ‘What should I ask for?’ She replied, ‘The head of John the baptizer.’ Immediately she rushed back to the king and requested, ‘I want you to give me at once the head of John the Baptist on a platter.’ The king was deeply grieved; yet out of regard for his oaths and for the guests, he did not want to refuse her. Immediately the king sent a soldier of the guard with orders to bring John’s head. He went and beheaded him in the prison, brought his head on a platter, and gave it to the girl. Then the girl gave it to her mother. When his disciples heard about it, they came and took his body, and laid it in a tomb".

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Can Hezbollah Survive the Fall of Assad/By HANIN GHADDAR/August 30/12
Recognizing the provisional Syrian government/By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/ August 30/12
Interview: Egyptian presidential aide Samir Murqus/Interview: Egyptian presidential aide Samir Murqus August 30/12
Syria: Facts and red lines/By Abdullah Al-Otaibi/Asharq Alawsat/August 30/12
Balkanization or Lebanization/By Ali Ibrahim/Asharq Alawsat/August 30/12

Can Hezbollah Survive the Fall of Assad
By HANIN GHADDAR
Published: August 28, 2012
New York Times
THE Syrian government has tried many times to transfer its crisis to Lebanon, but it has failed to cause a real explosion that would lead to another Lebanese civil war. It has, however, succeeded in inciting small outbreaks of violence that have pushed the country to the verge of a breakdown for the past 17 months.
Clashes in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli between Sunnis and Alawites have intensified in recent days — but this time the Lebanese Army intervened to stop the fighting.
Something fundamental has changed: the Shiite militant group Hezbollah, long Syria’s powerful proxy in Lebanon, has become a wounded beast. And it is walking a very thin line between protecting its assets and aiding a crumbling regime next door.
It seems that the Lebanese Army has finally received political cover, mainly from President Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister Najib Mikati, to confront Hezbollah and its allies and to put an end to the violence. On Sunday, 18 armed men from a family with links to Hezbollah were arrested by the Lebanese Army. Two trucks and a warehouse full of weaponry were confiscated.
This arrest is politically significant. It means that the Lebanese prime minister and president are no longer willing to jeopardize stability in Lebanon by giving Hezbollah full cover, as they have usually done since June 2011, when a Hezbollah-dominated government came to power. Indeed, Syria is losing sway in Lebanon, and Hezbollah no longer exercises the same level of control over state institutions as it once did.
Today, Hezbollah is regarded by the Arab street as an ally of a dictator who is killing his people. Losing regional popularity is one thing, but losing its constituency at home is something Hezbollah cannot tolerate. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2013, and Hezbollah prefers not to take any risks. It will do whatever it takes to maintain its control in Lebanon. So will Iran. Iran is doing its utmost to prolong Mr. Assad’s rule in Syria, and it would likely do much more to hang on to Lebanon. Tehran can’t afford to lose both.
The erosion of Hezbollah’s control started with the arrest on Aug. 9 of Bashar al-Assad’s friend and adviser, the former Lebanese information minister Michel Samaha, in connection with a seizure of explosives that were to be used in northern Lebanon. Lebanese authorities jointly charged him and the Damascus-based Syrian national security chief, Gen. Ali Mamluk, with plotting “terrorist attacks” and the assassination of political and religious figures in Lebanon.
While none of Syria’s allies in Lebanon spoke in defense of Mr. Samaha, a reaction came from the street a few days later. A Shiite family whose son was abducted in Syria began a wave of random kidnappings of Syrians; rioters blocked the road to the Beirut airport; dozens of Syrians were abducted, and their shops were vandalized.
The political storm that followed Mr. Samaha’s arrest subsided immediately. Hezbollah did not comment on the arrest, but in a speech following the events, its chief, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, told the public that he and his party were incapable of controlling the street, hinting at more chaos to come.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese government, which is still dominated by Hezbollah, has failed to address several basic domestic issues like public services and security. Many communities, including Shiites in the south and in Beirut’s southern suburbs, have taken to the streets in the past few months to protest increasing power outages.
Mr. Assad may not yet realize that he is a dead man walking, but Hezbollah does. That does not mean, however, that the party will change its stance on Syria as the Palestinian militant group Hamas has done. If it did, it would lose its supply lines from Iran. So Hezbollah’s main objective is to avoid a full explosion before the parliamentary elections. After all, an election victory would allow Hezbollah to maintain its political control over Lebanon democratically, without having to resort to arms. Tehran would also prefer to avoid any war that would force Hezbollah to get involved — namely, a war with Israel. That could lead to the party’s losing both its weapons and its supporters.
Hezbollah has an interest in keeping the violence at a simmer for the moment, but the longer Mr. Assad stays, the greater the risk that sectarian tensions will boil over in Lebanon.
**Hanin Ghaddar is the editor of NOW Lebanon.

Al-Qaeda threatens Shiites of Lebanon
August 30, 2012 /The Daily Star/BEIRUT: A statement issued by Al-Qaeda threatened Lebanese Shiites that they will “pay” for their support of the Syrian regime. The statement, which appeared as an audio message on a Jihadist website on Aug. 17 and was recently picked up by the media, warned Shiites in Lebanon that “the positions of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement vis-à-vis the Syrian revolution do not serve the sect’s best interest ... If you maintain your arrogant attitude, you will be punished and you will pay. You only have yourselves to blame.” The statement was attributed to the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, an alleged Al-Qaeda branch that is active in Lebanon and Syria. It has claimed rocket attacks from Lebanon into Israel in the past.

Gen. Jean Kahwagi : Lebanese Army could smash gunmen if given green light
August 30, 2012ظThe Daily Star
BEIRUT: Gen. Jean Kahwagi said Thursday that the Army could crush armed elements on the street should the political situation in the country be made conducive to such an undertaking, and added that the military would not allow any political party to blackmail it on any issue. Speaking at a ceremony honoring retired officers in Yarze, the head of the Lebanese Army issued a stern warning. “The Army has informed all political parties of its ability to settle issues and deliver debilitating blows to all gunmen regardless of the party they belong to, on condition that [these parties] lift the cover they are providing [the gunmen] through clear media pronouncements that are free of duplicity.” Kahwagi was referring to events in north Lebanon, where weeklong clashes between supporters and opponents of Syrian President Bashar Assad left at least 16 dead and over 120 wounded, including 11 soldiers. Rival figures in the northern city of Tripoli agreed to a ceasefire last week and asked the Army to deploy heavily in the area and crack down on violators in order to restore order. As part of its security plan for the city, the Army detained 18 people on suspicion of involvement in the clashes. It also raided several safe houses, seizing weapons and ammunition. Referring to the events in Tripoli, Kahwagi said that the Army’s initiative in launching communication between rival groups and bridging gaps between them is a means to resolve the standoff in the city. He also hit back at his critics for fostering what he described as a “hostile environment” toward the Army.
“The Army's keenness on an environment of freedom in Lebanon does not mean accepting the exploitation of this principle and hiding behind it to promote destructive ideas and create a hostile environment toward the Army and constitutional institutions,” he said.
Kahwagi was recently subjected to a withering attack by Future Movement MP Mouein Merhebi, who accused him of taking advantage of his military rank to position himself for the country’s presidency. The Akkar MP also called Kahwagi a “failure” and deemed him “responsible for civil strife in the country.” In response, the Army filed a complaint against the parliamentarian via the Defense Ministry. The complaint accuses Merhebi of slandering and defaming the Army and its command. “The Army will not allow any political party to blackmail it on any issue,” Kahwagi declared.
In his speech, Kahwagi also said that the military is committed to preventing its border with Syria “from becoming a passage for sedition” in either direction, and that it will thwart attempts to establish a buffer zone. “The Army is working at both ends [of Lebanon] to save the country, whether via its readiness on the southern border to face potential aggression by Israel and preserve Lebanon's legitimate rights in its regional waters and the special economic zone, or through controlling security on the Lebanese-Syrian border,” he said.

Lebanese Firefighter injured by celebratory gunfire after prisoner’s release
August 30, 2012/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: A firefighter was wounded by celebratory gunfire after the Wednesday release on bail of a man accused of a June attack on a local television station, security sources told The Daily Star. Wissam Alaaeddine was released on LL1 million bail after the Beirut Accusatory Committee overturned a previous decision to deny his release. Residents of Alaaeddine’s Beirut neighborhood, Khandaq al-Ghamiq, shot the celebratory rounds that accidentally wounded the firefighter. The gunfire came during a Cabinet meeting, and its proximity to the Grand Serail put security forces there into a state of high alert. Alaaeddine is accused of attempted murder as well as trying to burn down the Al-Jadeed building in Beirut. Two other suspects are still at large. The attack came after the station ran an interview with Sheikh Ahmad Assir, who criticized Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah and Amal Movement leader and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Alaaeddine’s arrest prompted masked gunmen to close off several Beirut roads with burning tires.

French Judiciary Says Providing Security Agencies with Complete Telecom Data Violates Privacy
Naharnet /A delegation that recently visited France to view the modern mechanisms in intercepting phone calls came back with results contradictory to what the government decided regarding allowing the security agencies to benefit from the telecom data to track crimes. According to local newspapers published on Wednesday, French authorities pointed out that such a decision would violate the constitution and the privacy of the citizens. Head of the Shura Council Judge Shukri Sader and several officers and telecom technicians held meetings with Lebanese officials briefing them on the information they took from French authorities regarding this matter. As Safir newspaper reported that the competent French judiciary said that the telecom data “is part of the freedom of communication that the French and Lebanese constitutions preserve, therefore, the security agencies have no right to obtain the full telecom data.” The daily said that the French authorities noted that the security agencies can only obtain the telecommunication data of certain phone numbers and for “justified reasons.” The delegation also informed officials that the norms require the security agencies to explain the results they reached after analyzing the data, “if the results don’t fulfill the purpose the data was taken for then the side that demanded to acquire the data would be held accountable.”
A security source told An Nahar newspaper that obtaining the telecom data wouldn’t be useful if the Lebanese authorities didn’t consult the legal French judicial references concerning the legality of the matter in light of the developments. The March 14 alliance has constantly demanded the cabinet to approve providing the telecom data to security agencies to uncover the security incidents in Lebanon after MP Butros Harb and Lebanese Forces Leader Samir Geagea were the targets of a murder attempts. The government agreed on the demands of the opposition, however, President Michel Suleiman, Prime Minister Najib Miqati and the concerned ministers, judges and senior security officials decided to delegate a team to France to view the French judicial authorities’ stance over the matter.

Lebanese Killed in Syria, Another Abducted near Douma
Naharnet /A Lebanese man has been killed in Syria while another has been abducted since 11 days in two separate incidents, LBCI television reported on Wednesday. “Lebanese citizen Shamel Shammout was killed by gunfire in the Syrian area of Jdeidet Artouz and his body was transported to Lebanon,” LBCI said. The TV network also reported that “Lebanese citizen Mahmoud Mohammed Faqih, 72, was abducted 11 days ago in the Syrian area of Otaya near (the Damascus suburb of) Douma.”“His family has been negotiating his release with a group calling itself Liwa al-Islam,” LBCI added.
Liwa al-Islam had claimed responsibility for the bomb attack on the National Security headquarters in Damascus that killed Defense Minister Daoud Rajha, President Bashar Assad's brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, head of Syria's crisis cell General Hassan Turkmani and National Security chief General Hisham Ikhtiyar.

Decree for missing persons nearly finalized, Lebanese justice minister says
August 30, 2012/By Jana al-Hassan/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Justice Minister Shakib Qortbawi said Wednesday that his ministry was finalizing the draft decree to establish the Independent National Commission tasked with investigating the fate of Lebanese missing persons.“Hopefully, the draft will be ready within the next few days [and I will] sign it and refer it to the Cabinet,” Qortbawi told The Daily Star.
Qortbawi said that the INC is taking into consideration the observations of the Shura Council, but stressed that it will be an independent and nongovernmental body. He added that its members would include judges as well as representatives of the Red Cross and the families of the missing.
“They will be tasked with gathering information about the missing Lebanese,” said Qortbawi.
Commenting on the release of Lebanese citizen Yaacoub Shamoun, who was released three months ago after having been imprisoned in Syria for 27 years, the minister said that the Lebanese Judicial Committee was following up on his case.
Shamoun’s release has only recently been made public, as he initially refused to make his situation known for fear of being subjected to violence at the hands of pro-Syrian elements.
Qortbawi said that the committee would want to hear from Shamoun whether he had come into contact with other Lebanese detainees in the Syrian prisons in which he had been held.
“We will meet with Shamoun Thursday at 10:30 a.m. at the committee’s office in Beirut to hear about his imprisonment in Syria,” Judge George Rizk, one of the committee’s two members, told The Daily Star.
Rizk also indicated that the committee was seeking to determine whether any other Lebanese prisoners were still detained in Syria.
According to Rizk, the committee had been working on the case with its counterpart, the Syrian Judicial Committee, until the Syrian security situation deteriorated.
“We had a few names of missing [Lebanese] possibly detained in Syria, but the Syrian side continued to deny that it had any information on them,” said Rizk.
Ghazi Aad, founder and director of SOLIDE (Support of Lebanese in Detention and Exile), voiced optimism over Qortbawi’s efforts, saying that establishing the INC is a very positive step toward revealing the fate of the missing Lebanese.
“We have been calling for establishing such a body for a long time, and we hope it will finally see the light of day,” Aad told The Daily Star.
He added that Shamoun’s release proves that reports denying the presence of Lebanese detainees in Syrian prisons are wrong.
“I met with Shamoun and talked to him. He mentioned five detainees we didn’t have in our 600 missing persons list, which means there might be even more Lebanese in Syrian jails.”
Shamoun also met with Metn MP and Kataeb party member Sami Gemayel in Bikfaya, Mount Lebanon, Wednesday afternoon, according to the National News Agency. Gemayel praised Shamoun and presented him with an award for his many sacrifices.
For his part, Shamoun said: “I am happy to return to my house and to the house of the Kataeb,” and thanked those in attendance for the appreciation and affection they showed him.
Shamoun’s release has given hope to the relatives of hundreds of other Lebanese who were kidnapped during the 1975-90 Civil War.
The Syrian government has long denied holding Lebanese prisoners of conscience, only to release a few every so often.

March 14 starts campaign to expel Syrian envoy
August 30, 2012 /By Van Meguerditchian/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Several hundred students and activists of the March 14 coalition marched to the Foreign Affairs Ministry in Beirut Wednesday, calling for the expulsion of Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdul-Karim Ali.
While Ali played down the demands for his expulsion in a meeting with a March 8 delegation earlier in the day, the March 14 coalition’s student organizations said that he is not the ambassador of the Syrian people but “the Syrian regime’s representative in Lebanon.”
During a meeting with a March 8 delegation at the Syrian Embassy in Yarzeh near Beirut, Ali dismissed the calls for his expulsion, describing March 14’s demands as a sign of “frustration and desperation.”
“The demonstration by a small segment of the March 14 forces outside the Foreign Ministry is part of a split in the country and is a sign of frustration and despair felt by them,” said Ali.
Demonstrators in front of the Foreign Ministry later in the afternoon said that their next march would be to the Syrian Embassy in Yarzeh.
“Syrian Ambassador! Go Home!” read many banners carried by the March 14 activists. Calls for summoning Damascus’ ambassador to Beirut have dominated March 14’s rhetoric since charges were filed against Former Information Minister Michel Samaha and two Syrian officials for carrying explosive devices from Syria to Lebanon and plotting terror attacks in the country.
Ongoing investigations have pointed to a clear link between Samaha and Syria’s National Security chief Brig. Gen. Ali Mamlouk. Foreign Affairs Minister Adnan Mansour’s refusal to summon Ali has triggered waves of condemnations by the March 14 opposition.In addition to politicians and students of the March 14 coalition, Syrian activists who have taken refuge in Lebanon also attended the rally.
Alia Mansour, a member of the Syrian National Council, told The Daily Star that Ali only represents Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime in Lebanon and works to target Syrian activists in the country.
“We know how much the Lebanese suffered from this oppressive regime. This ambassador doesn’t represent us [the Syrian people] because he is working as an informer to the Syrian regime about the Syrian activists in Lebanon,” said Mansour.
Draping herself with the Syrian rebel flag, Mansour said that the Syrian Embassy had its own “group of thugs” who were monitoring the work of Syrian activists and sometimes kidnapping them.
Former MP Elias Atallah said that Wednesday’s rally was only a warm-up compared to the upcoming events the coalition was planning.
“This is only a students’ movement and the rally wasn’t organized on the level of the March 14 politicians.
“Had the politicians called for a rally, you would have seen a different picture,” said Atallah.
“I hope the Lebanese government understands this message today and stops disassociating itself from all brutal acts being carried out by the Assad regime.”
Atallah also said that the regime in Damascus had been oppressing not only Syrians, but also Lebanese and Palestinians.
“This regime has killed three peoples, and these three people should unite to get rid of this murderous regime,” he said.
“This government was not established here [Beirut], but in Iran and Damascus ... and most of its ministers are partners of the Assad regime,” said Atallah.
Wissam Shibli, head of the Future Movement’s student organization, said that Lebanese could no longer remain silent on the violations of the Syrian regime.
“As student organizations we decided to come together once again as March 14 activists and say enough for the violations,” said Shibli.
Shibli said that the rally is against all institutions and individuals who stand behind the Syrian regime in its daily violations of Lebanon’s sovereignty.
“This demonstration is against the government, the Syrian ambassador, the Syrian regime and everything that is threatening Lebanon, its stability and the project of the state that former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri died for,” Shibli said.
“Assad would defect before his Lebanese allies because his allies wouldn’t be aware of his defection as they are unaware of what is happening in Syria,” Shibli said.
Minieh MP Ahmad Fatfat said the rally was a protest against the ignorance of the foreign affairs minister.
“The minister has not even summoned the Syrian ambassador to talk about the case of former Minister Michel Samaha,” said Fatfat.
Recalling a number of kidnappings that targeted Syrian activists in Lebanon, Fatfat said that the Syrian ambassador had had a role in security incidents since his appointment as ambassador.
“We should not forget the Jassem brothers and Shibli al-Aisamy, who were probably killed after the kidnapping ... We should not even forget the insults he made against President Michel Sleiman,” he said.
“The Syrian ambassador represents the Damascus regime which sent explosive devices to Lebanon to cause instability, and the least we can do is to expel him from the country,” the Future Movement MP added. A week after a rally by the Kataeb Party’s youth department, all youth departments of the March 14 coalition agreed to coordinate on upcoming protests.
Wednesday’s rally was attended by Jamaa Islamiya, the Future Movement, the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party, the National Liberal Party and the Independence Movement.
Head of Lebanese Forces’ Students League Nadim Yazbeck criticized the foreign affairs minister for refusing to summon Syria’s ambassador.
“We are demonstrating today to tell the minister that Lebanese people are paying for him to be responsible, protect Lebanon’s sovereignty and not serve the interests of the Baath Party in the country,” said Yazbeck. Hisham Mahmoud, a student supporter of the Future Movement who came from Akkar to take part in the rally, said that Lebanese could no longer tolerate Syrian violations of Lebanon’s sovereignty. “As Lebanese we have fought for our freedom and we can no longer remain silent in the face of the Syrian regime’s threats against our freedom,” he said.

Lebanese Ministers trade blame over oil committee delay
August 30, 2012/By Hasan Lakkis, Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: A Cabinet session was marred Wednesday by a long-running dispute among ministers over the formation of a committee to administer the oil sector amid mounting calls for Lebanon to begin exploration of its offshore oil and gas deposits in the eastern Mediterranean. The Cabinet, which met under Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the Grand Serail, was supposed to discuss the demarcation of Lebanon’s maritime boundaries in line with a report prepared by the Foreign Ministry’s maritime demarcation committee. But the Cabinet shelved discussion of the issue because Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour was absent, attending the Non-Aligned Movement’s summit in Iran.
The report recommends that the Cabinet establish a team to propose a new Exclusive Economic Zone for Lebanon, which would bypass current boundary disputes with Israel and Cyprus and move ahead with oil and gas exploration in the country’s waters. Dispute broke out Wednesday both in and outside the Cabinet session with Health Minister Ali Hasan Khalil and Energy Minister Gebran Bassil trading blame for the delay in forming the board for the proposed oil committee. Speaker Nabih Berri also entered the fray, demanding that the government accelerate efforts to start exploration of natural gas and oil deposits in Lebanon’s territorial waters, saying this issue would have an “important and influential factor” on the country’s economic situation.
Berri, who has criticized the government for being slow in dealing with the issue of Lebanon’s offshore oil and gas, strongly denied media reports that a dispute between his Amal Movement and Hezbollah over naming a Shiite candidate was behind the delay in the formation of the oil committee. “Such reports are entirely untrue. I can confirm that we [Amal and Hezbollah] are in agreement on this issue and on the name [of a Shiite candidate] too,” he said during his weekly meeting with lawmakers at his residence in Ain al-Tineh.
Berri stressed “the need to act quickly in finalizing this vital issue and complete the necessary steps to begin the executive stage of oil and gas exploration ... Israel has taken speedy steps to benefit from this vital wealth while we are still dealing with this issue by [wasting] more time,” he said. Khalil, the health minister and who belongs to Berri’s parliamentary bloc, also denied reports of an Amal-Hezbollah rift over a Shiite candidate to the oil committee. “We are committed to the mechanism of appointments whose results led to a set of candidates ... We are in agreement [with Hezbollah] even on names [of candidates]. Therefore, no one must throw the ball into our court,” Khalil told reporters.
Khalil reiterated his position during the Cabinet session. Taking a direct swipe at Bassil, he said after the meeting: “There is no dispute over names [of candidates]. Responsibility falls on the one who must bring up the issue in the Cabinet. The names of three [candidates] have been proposed and there is no dispute on them between us and Hezbollah.” For his part, Bassil acknowledged differences within the Cabinet over proposed names of candidates to the oil committee. “We are still searching for a consensus inside the Cabinet on names in order to propose the appointment of the oil committee [members]. But so far this consensus has not happened,” Bassil told reporters after the meeting. He said once a consensus on names of candidates to the oil committee has been reached, he would present those names to Mikati in order to put them on the Cabinet’s agenda.
Noting that there was no link between oil exploration and the demarcation of the maritime boundaries, Bassil, who belongs to MP Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement, said: “We are late in issuing a decree on the creation of the [oil] committee and also in the appointment of its members. This is part of our responsibility.” Last year Parliament endorsed a draft law demarcating the country’s maritime boundaries with Israel and Cyprus and, months later, Israel mapped out its own maritime boundary overlapping with Lebanon’s.
At stake is a treasure trove of natural resources that could be worth billions of dollars. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that the Levantine Basin in the eastern Mediterranean, which includes the territorial waters of Lebanon, Israel, Syria and Cyprus, could hold as much as 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 34.5 trillion cubic meters of gas.
Meanwhile, Mikati said his government would take necessary measures to crack down on people blamed for a wave of kidnappings targeting Syrian, Turkish and Kuwaiti nationals and gunmen involved in last week’s deadly clashes between pro- and anti-Assad factions in the northern city of Tripoli that left 17 people dead and more than 120 wounded.
Referring to Tripoli, he said: “We reaffirm absolute support for the Army and security forces to control the situation and not to allow anyone to cover violations. The Lebanese judiciary has been issuing the necessary summons on these and other incidents in order to deter and arrest those who undermined security.”
Mikati confirmed that Lebanon starting from Sept. 5 would take over the presidency of the Arab League ministerial meetings for six months. He praised Pope Benedict XVI’s upcoming visit to Lebanon next month as “an historic visit of extraordinary significance.”
The Cabinet also approved a $700,000 grant from Norway to aid Syrian refugees in Lebanon, as well as an allocation of LL45 billion for substitute plantations in the Baalbek-Hermel province after security forces destroyed cannabis crops.

Soaring fuel prices deal another blow to Lebanese economy
August 30, 2012/By Mohamad El Amin/The Daily Star
Industries, particularly those that are energy-intensive, will bear the brunt of the higher fuel prices.
BEIRUT: Soaring fuel prices have exacerbated Lebanon’s already battered economy as rising production costs put more pressure on industrialists and farmers, economists said Wednesday. Prices of gasoline and petroleum products reached the highest levels in four months Wednesday. “Given the already receding markets and security turmoil, this is particularly bad for the whole economy,” Economist Ghazi Wazni told The Daily Star. Wazni said that businesses, which Tuesday reported a 50-percent decline in sales over the last two months, were likely to suffer from even slower sales if gasoline prices continued to soar. But it is not only transportation costs that will be impacted. Commercial and industrial businesses, in addition to households, pay significant amounts to private generator owners for electricity during power cuts across the country. But while households and businesses face higher private generator bills, industries, many of which run their own generators, are particularly vulnerable to higher fuel prices. Industries, especially energy-intensive ones, will bear the brunt of the higher fuel prices, leaving them with one of two alternatives: to either hike commodity prices or concede a lower margin of profits, economist Louis Hobeika said. Compared to countries that offer reliable and cheaper electricity, or those providing fuel subsidies, the competitiveness of Lebanese products could suffer a blow because of the fuel price increases, Hobeika said. According to the head of the Farmers Association Antoine Howayek, the increases in fuel prices pose a higher risk to the agricultural sector, particularly in the Bekaa region where farmers depend on pumps powered by fuel oil for most of their irrigation.
“Irrigation is responsible for no less than 20 percent of costs,” he said, complaining that plummeting exports and lower demand for produce over the past year have rendered farmers unable to increase prices to match increases in production costs. Elie Yachoui, a professor at the Notre Dame University, told The Daily Star that the standard inflationary impact of fuel price increases amounts to 2-3 percent for every 10-percent increase. “But it is common practice in Lebanon for businesses to increase prices by a ratio [equal] to the actual increase in the fuel component,” Yachoui added.
All economists interviewed by The Daily Star said that the impact of higher fuel prices was significant for the Treasury, which is already excessively burdened by fuel purchases for the cash-strapped Electricite du Liban. Gasoline prices rose sharply Wednesday, gaining LL1,100 and LL1,000 for its 95-octane and 98-octane varieties respectively, reaching LL36,400 and LL37,000 per 20 liters – their highest level since May. Both diesel and fuel oil increased by LL600.
In a recent interview with The Daily Star Monday, Dania Naka, the general manager of fuel importer Wardieh, said that gasoline prices would continue to increase over the next three weeks.
She added that gasoline could increase by an additional LL600 next week, followed by LL400 and LL200 in the two following weeks, before possibly stabilizing if international oil prices level off.

Sheikh Ahmad Assir denies plans to disrupt Sadr ceremony
August 30, 2012/By Mohammed Zaatari/The Daily Star
SIDON, Lebanon: Ahead of the anniversary of Musa Sadr’s disappearance Friday, rumors persist in Sidon that controversial Sheikh Ahmad Assir might try to disrupt proceedings by blocking the southern road heading to Nabatieh, where the ceremony will take place. There is talk in Sidon that Assir intends to hold a sit-in in the Hisbeh area, close to Ain al-Hilweh. Assir said in an interview that people traveling to Nabatieh from across the country are safe, but added that he intends to send a peaceful message to the Shiite sect at Friday prayers. Meanwhile, political and security meetings have taken place in Sidon to discuss how the presence of Assir’s followers might interfere with those travelling to Nabatieh for Friday’s commemoration of the Shiite imam, who disappeared during a visit to Libya in 1978.
The Amal Movement, of which Sadr was a founding member, has placed the final touches on the preparations for Friday’s ceremony – the 34th anniversary of the Imam’s disappearance.
The organizing committee says that thousands of seats have been arranged and that all logistical preparations have been completed, with the streets of Nabatieh decorated with victory arches and resistance banners. Lebanese and Amal flags have been raised, along with photos of Sadr and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, pictured together on posters which read: “For every oppressor there is an end, and we are waiting.” A Lebanese ministerial committee has been tasked with investigating Sadr’s disappearance. Previously, Lebanese authorities in charge of the case had issued an arrest warrant for then-Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, who died in last year’s Libyan revolution. During the commemoration, Berri will comment on the situation in the country, as well as reveal what the committee and the Libyan authorities have discovered so far. The head of the committee, Judge Hasan Shami, dismissed Tuesday claims that Sadr’s remains had been discovered, adding that he believed the imam and his two companions were being held in an unknown detention center in Libya.
Amal has refrained from raising any commemorative banners or posters in the city of Sidon itself to avoid creating tension. One victory arch was raised at the southern entrance to Sidon, but was later unintentionally destroyed by a road accident. Speaking to The Daily Star at his home in the village of Shwaliq, Assir said he was preparing further “peaceful and civilized” action, as no solution had yet been reached on the issue of non-state arms. Assir and his supporters previously held a monthlong sit-in between July and August in protest of Hezbollah’s arms, during which the northern entrance to Sidon was blocked.
Assir denied that he had visited the Ain al-Hilweh camp in order to coordinate a new sit-in.In response to rumors that he intends to hold a protest Friday to obstruct the movement of Sadr supporters, Assir said: “We are not thugs who would block the road. We are protesting the tyranny of weapons, because of repeated violations against us and the Lebanese people. That doesn’t mean we would right a wrong by committing further wrongs.”“Our sit-in was peaceful and civilized, and the seaside road remained open,” he added. During the sit-in, Assir’s supporters clashed with members of the Popular Nasserite Organization in a gun battle that left five people injured. Assir describes the sit-in as being “designed to raise the issue of weapons, so that they can be discussed seriously. If it is not discussed at the dialogue table we will return to our peaceful and civilized sit-in – but as of yet we haven’t determined when and where.”
During Ramadan, Assir promised to take action after Eid al-Fitr.
The March 14 coalition have, to varying degrees, withdrawn from recent National Dialogue sessions over the omission of non-state arms from the agenda, but President Michel Sleiman has vowed the issue will be discussed at the next meeting, scheduled for Sept. 20. Sources close to Assir have said that he has been warned by local security officials not to act recklessly, and that he would be prevented from carrying out a similarly disruptive sit-in again to prevent growing tension in Lebanon. According to the sources, Assir has been warned that taking action Friday would be a “suicide attempt,” and he has been advised to keep any civil action within the walls of his mosque. They added that Sidon MP Bahia Hariri had requested that Army commander General Jean Kahwagi prevent Assir from obstructing the passage of those heading to Nabatieh to participate in Friday’s ceremony. Also Wednesday, Jamaa Islamiya official Bassam Hammoud visited Amal Movement’s office in Haret Saida, where he discussed ways to strengthen dialogue in Sidon.
Also discussed was how best to resolve any problems that might arise as a result of the growing tensions in the country. Hammoud was also accompanied by Islamic forces from Ain al-Hilweh and a representative of the Salafist movement in the city. After the meeting, Hammoud said: “The region and Lebanon are going through delicate times, which require from everyone high levels of national responsibility [in order] to prevent strife in the country.” “There are already a number of areas across Lebanon which have been experiencing instability and chaos, including the bloody battles in north Lebanon, and the kidnappings in Beirut and the Bekaa.”
“All this is jeopardizing the stability and civil peace, which is already fragile in Lebanon,” he added.
In order to maintain Sidon as a “symbol of coexistence,” Hammoud said that “we met with our brothers in the Amal Movement and there was clear agreement that Sidon and its Hara and camps are one unit.
“Any violation against these places will be rejected and condemned, and the perpetrator will be held responsible.”
Sidon’s former mayor, Abdul-Rahman Bizri, issued a statement Wednesday rejecting the use of the city’s streets to express political opinions.
He stressed his “rejection that the city’s streets and squares be used to express personal opinions and to harm the interests of the people, by blocking roads and obstructing traffic. This will only harm Sidon, its heritage, and civil, social and political peace.”
Bizri added that the Lebanese government and the Interior Ministry were responsible for preventing a repetition of the crisis which Sidon experienced during Assir’s sit-in.He added that the anniversary of Sadr’s disappearance was important to Sidon, as it was the capital of the south, and so also the capital of the resistance against Israel.

U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon Tells Iran Leaders 'Concrete' Progress Needed on Nuclear Drive
Naharnet/U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon told Iran's supreme leader and president on Wednesday that "concrete" progress is needed to end the showdown over their country's nuclear drive, a U.N. spokesman said. Ban also had a tough message for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on human rights, their caustic comments on Israel and Iran's involvement in the Syrian civil war, U.N. spokesman Martin Nesirky told U.N. correspondents from Tehran.
The U.N. leader "conveyed extremely clearly and in no uncertain terms" international expectations on the nuclear dispute and a range of other topics which have led to international efforts to isolate the Islamic state, Nesirky said. Ban went to Tehran to attend the Non-Aligned Movement summit in the face of opposition from Israel and the United States.
He called for "concrete steps to address the concerns of the International Atomic Energy Agency and to prove to the world that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes."
The United States and its European allies accuse Iran of seeking a nuclear bomb and stonewalling efforts by the U.N. atomic agency to get firm information on the research which the Tehran government has insisted is peaceful. Talks between Iran and the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany have failed to start serious negotiations on ending the showdown.
In his separate meetings with Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, Ban "regretted that little tangible progress has been achieved so far during those intensive talks" and added "that the talks needed to be serious and substantive." Ban also condemned what Nesirky called "recent rhetoric we have heard from all kinds of quarters" about a possible Israeli or U.S. military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
But the U.N. leader took the Iranian leadership to task over their comments on Israel.
Khamenei this month called Israel a "cancerous tumor" while Ahmadinejad has repeatedly cast doubt on Israel's right to exist. Ban "strongly objected to recent remarks from Iranian officials denying the Holocaust and Israel's right to exist. He said such offensive and inflammatory statements were unacceptable and should be condemned by all," Nesirky said. The Syria conflict and human rights also took a prominent role in the talks. The U.N. chief urged the president and supreme leader "to use Iran's influence to impress upon the Syrian leadership the urgent need for the violence to stop and to create the conditions for genuine dialogue." Iran has been accused of breaching U.N. sanctions by providing arms to President Bashar Assad's forces. The Tehran government has given backing to the mediation efforts of U.N.-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan and his replacement Lakhdar Brahimi. But it has said that Assad cannot be forced out of power.
Ban "called on all states to stop supplying arms to all sides in Syria," his spokesman said. The U.N. leader reaffirmed his comments that Iran has "an important role" to play in any solution to the Syria conflict, which activists say has left about 24,000 dead.
Human rights in Iran "remains a source of concern," Ban told the country's top leaders. "He said fundamental civil and political rights should be respected," Nesirky said, amid mounting international criticism of Iran's use of capital punishment and action against political opponents and ethnic minorities.
Nesirky said that Ban had also met Saeed Jalili, former nuclear negotiator and top aide to the supreme leader and other top officials in the parliament and government. "These have been very serious meetings and extremely detailed meetings," the spokesman commented.

UN chief to Khamenei: Stop threatening Israel
Dudi Cohen, agencies / 08.29.12/Ynetnews
During Tehran meeting with supreme leader, Ban says verbal attacks on Jewish state offensive, inflammatory; urges Iran to 'prove nuclear program is peaceful.' Netanyahu: International participation at Iran summit a 'stain on humanity' UN chief Ban Ki-moon met Iran's president and supreme leader in Tehran on Wednesday to urge them to take concrete steps to prove the country's nuclear program is peaceful and to use their influence to help end Syria's 17-month conflict. Ban's spokesman Martin Nesirky said that in Ban's separate meetings with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he further said their verbal attacks on Israel were offensive, inflammatory and unacceptable. He said Iran needed to take concrete steps to address the concerns of the International Atomic Energy Agency and prove to the world its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes," Nesirky, speaking from Tehran, told reporters in New York.
Iran says its program is peaceful, but Western powers and their allies fear it is aimed at developing atomic weapons. Iran has been hit with four rounds of UN Security Council sanctions for refusing to halt its nuclear enrichment program. Khamenei said during the meeting that Iran was "working to allay the concerns regarding nuclear weapons.
"The Americans know Iran is not interested in (developing) nuclear weapons. They are just looking for an excuse," he said.
The supreme leader said nuclear weapons in Israel's hands poses a greater threat to the region. "I expect the UN to act on this issue," he said. Israel has never acknowledged having nuclear weapons but is widely believed to have a large arsenal.Following an earlier meeting with parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani, Ban told a press conference that "Iran can play an important role in solving the Syrian crisis peacefully," adding that "the Syrian people have suffered a lot ... with more than 20,000 dying in the past 18 months."Larijani, for his part, said "unfortunately, some big countries have acted adventurously in the region and have created disruption in the region like what we are witnessing in Syria."
Iran, the chief ally of Syria's regime, accuses the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar of sustaining the armed revolt in Syria
Addressing the Syrian crisis, Khamenei told Ban that the solution is to stop weapons shipments to the Syrian rebels, or as he put it, "irresponsible groups inside Syria," according to his website.
A senior Iranian official gave details of the plan Iran is proposing at the summit.
"Iran's proposal ... is a cease-fire and the implementation of a three-month mechanism for national reconciliation talks in this country," the official IRNA news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian as saying Wednesday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the Non-Aligned Movement summit in Iran a "disgrace" to humanity. During a meeting Wednesday evening with the Prime Minister of Lower Saxony, Germany, David McAllister, the PM said "Seventy years ago, six million of our people were destroyed in an act of genocide. The world pledged ‘never again’ . . . It appears that many among the international community haven’t learned anything. I think this is a disgrace and a stain on humanity."
Netanyahu said that the Iranian "regime denies the Holocaust and is working to destroy the Jewish state. This regime oppresses its people, takes part in the butchering of innocent Syrians, and calls for death to America, death to Israel."
Reuters, AFP, AP contributed to the report

Recognizing the provisional Syrian government
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
French President Francois Hollande announced that “France will recognize the provisional government of Syria once it is formed”. The truth is that this is the least that can be done for the Syrian revolution. This is the reasonable minimum response to the crimes being committed by the al-Assad regime gangs against the Syrian people, and this is therefore something that the Arabs and the West must do.
Al-Assad’s gangs are bombarding Damascus and other Syrian cities, whilst one of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders has announced that his country has sent officers, snipers and infantry to support al-Assad against the Syrian people. In addition to this, the death toll in Syria has exceeded 27,000, and we have seen Syrian children – not even 12 months old – being shot and killed by al-Assad’s gangs, whilst more than 200 people are being killed in the country every day. In light of all this, what is the international community – and particularly the Arab world – waiting for in order to save the Syrian people from al-Assad’s criminal gangs? This is a truly confusing state of affairs, particularly as some are continuing to talk about a peaceful solution and rejecting military intervention. The last such figure to talk about this in the Arab world was the Egyptian president, and this raises the following question: how can we rescue the Syrian people and put an end to al-Assad’s killing machine whilst the international community – and prior to this the Arab world – have failed to take any concrete steps to convince al-Assad that he is facing a hopeless situation, no matter what he does? How can we rescue the Syrian people when we have failed to convince the Iranians that it has no hope of utilizing half-solutions in Syria?
Therefore, the least that we can do for the Syrian revolution today is what was proposed by the French president in his speech on Monday, during which he announced that his country would recognize the provisional government of Syria as soon as it is formed. However we must not stop here, we must also see all Arab states without exception, including Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, as well as Egypt, publicly receive the leadership of the opposing Syrian National Council [SNC] and Free Syrian Army [FSA], particularly as these organizations are very serious, and low-level meetings are insufficient. In fact, there must be a clear and public message to al-Assad and Iran that the game is over and that what is happening in Syria is a crime, not a “misunderstanding” between the people and regime, as the Syrian National Reconciliation Minister stated pathetically in his most recent statement.
This is the minimum requirement for the international community, and particularly the Arab world, today. However this does not mean that this is the only required solution, rather this is just the urgent requirement today, and something that must be implemented as soon as possible. This is in order to send a clear message to Iran and others who are trying to dilute the positions regarding the Syrian crisis, particularly those who are misleading people regarding their true intentions on issues such as dialogue and military intervention and others. Therefore recognizing the provisional government of Syria now, and publicly receiving Syrian opposition leaders at the highest levels, means that everybody will have taken concrete action for the post-Assad period. This would also mean that there is no longer any room today for applying half-solutions or attempting to Lebanonize Syria, something that would enable Iran to extend its influence in the Levant.
In conclusion, recognizing the provisional government of Syria is the least that we can do today to send a clear message that there is no hope for the criminal of Damascus.

[Asharq Al-Awsat/Interview with Samir Murqus Coptic Egyptian Presidential Assistant
In the first interview since assuming his new post, Coptic Egyptian Presidential Assistant for Democratic Transition,
Samir Murqus, spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat about the future of the country, his hopes for the new Egyptian presidency and the problems that may face Egypt’s Coptic community under an Islamist president.
Murqus is one of Egypt’s most respected Coptic political figures. A one-time member of the Tagammu Party, he is a prominent liberal Coptic scholar and writer. His appointment as one of President Mursi’s advisers, working out of the presidential palace in Cairo, may do much to allay the Coptic community’s fears regarding life under an Islamist president.
The following is the full text of the interview:
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you consider the appointment that a Christian has been appointed as an assistant to an Islamist president?
[Murqus] First, I hate the religious classification of Egyptians as Muslims and Christians, and I do not want to be referred to according to my religious affiliated, particularly since the Christian issue and the problems of the Christians in Egypt are only one of many various concerns. In any case, there can be no doubt that one of the objectives of the 25 January revolution, which then became one of its first achievements, was to expand and dismantle the closed elite network – if we can use this term– of government…which would supply the state establishment with executive officials. Therefore, there has been a change within this closed network regarding who was considered “trusted” or not. As for now, following the revolution, this network has largely been expanded, first in terms of the age standpoint, namely the age of prospective officials, and secondly from an ideological standpoint, as we are now seeing intellectuals assuming executive positions. For example, I am considered a member of this intellectual group, and I was appointed as a deputy to the Cairo governorate almost one year ago. This was the first appointment of an intellectual, and represents a positive sign and an experience that deserves contemplation, which also creating a challenge for success. Therefore, the [political] appointments in Egypt should include all groups; men and women, Christians and Muslims who are not affiliated with the elite or prominent families. Such appointments must solely be based on the yardstick of efficiency and service to the homeland.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] What are the thorny issues that you intend to work on and prioritize as presidential assistant? What is the first decision that you intend to take?
[Murqus] Firstly, there is something that concerns me personally, which is how to implement everything that I have struggled for – even in terms of my writing – which deals with freedom, democracy, citizenship rights, and equality. In addition to this, there is my political struggle and action in the street over the past decades, and how to translate this in a practical and scientific way and become an effective servant of the Egyptian people. The other issue, which is very important, is to shift the presidency from the level of the pharaoh and the rule of one figure to the level of the presidential team, in accordance with specialization, as well as making attempts to modernize the Egyptian state since the advanced world is based on the idea of qualitative specialization, and this is the starting point for progress.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you truly possess the power and capabilities to achieve all this, considering that many in Egypt believe this presidential team is nothing more than an empty gesture on the part of the Egyptian president and that it will not effectively participate in the decision-making process?
[Murqus] I certainly possess such powers. As for the file related to my job, I possess wide-ranging powers and a specific mission which will help me communicate with all the national forces and also issue decisions. The file I am in charge of is far broader than the Coptic issue, which is something that I view as a narrow issue. In any case, the reality will impose itself, and we should not prejudge things. All those who know me are well aware that I will either leave my fingerprints on the post that I have been assigned, or I will leave. I will not accept to continue in a post where I do not have a clear role. As far as the democratic transition file is concerned, there are clear and specific tasks that have been agreed upon between the president and myself during our previous meeting. He gave me the freedom to form my team and appoint my assistants, and this is a positive sign. All that is left is the practical implementation of this. Ultimately, I am carrying out a public service for the sake of God and the homeland.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you not have a problem in dealing with a president who is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, particularly as you are a Christian liberal intellectual who must therefore have strong ideological differences with him?
[Murqus] You must realize that the Muslim Brotherhood is a reality. I am, in the first place, against any party being excluded by any other party, and I have been promoting this idea for a long time. My personal history testifies to this, and in the past I have opposed the [political] exclusion of Communists and the Muslim Brotherhood. I also opposed the former regime’s policy of arbitrary arrests. We must realize that the issue is for every [political] force or trend to be granted a fair degree of political expression. If we called for this right for the Muslim Brotherhood in the past, then they must now be eager to achieve this for the other parties. I have a famous saying which is that "Egypt cannot be built with only one colour…Egypt is built by all trends."
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you truly believe that this is possible?
[Murqus] The initial shape of President Mursi's regime confirms this. There is also political and ideological diversity in the presidential team. I am personally affiliated with the nationalist forces in their broader shape and with the trend that is able to communicate with all the national forces. I am participating in the presidential team even though I am liberal in my ideology and left-wing as far as social justice is concerned. I also have a special interest in the issue of the Islamic-Christian relations, and I have written many books on this topic.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] One of the main problems in Egypt today is regarding the Coptic community’s demands. How are these being dealt with? How can we reassure the Coptic community regarding a Muslim Brotherhood presidency? [Murqus] I am from the school of thought that calls for reassuring the Christians by providing security and reassurance to the Egyptians in general. We should ensure citizenship rights for all and provide justice for all. Security cannot be ensured for a single individual in isolation of others. If the president and the government ensure citizenship rights and justice for all, this will include the Christian community and women. However if you give reassurances to a certain group, this would appear as if you are granting it special privileges, and this would be a mistake, because if you grant a privilege today, you can withdraw it tomorrow. However if this is granted to everybody, then it will become the rule that nobody can withdraw; this will become a right for all Egyptian citizens.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] There are international concerns about the rights of Christians in Egypt, particularly after the Islamists assumed power. What is your own view over such concerns? How can these be tackled? [Murqus] What is going on in Egypt is an Egyptian affair and the nation should tackle this. The side that asks for protection from abroad is, at the same time, asking for others to be punished. Any national group can coexist with other groups. However for any party to seek strength from abroad, this will only serve to punish others. The Christians in Egypt have understood this reality and come to the realization that the struggle for their cause must take place through involvement in the public work, participation with the Muslims and expanding the base of the Muslims who pay attention to Christian problems.

Balkanization or Lebanization?
By Ali Ibrahim/Asharq Alawsat
When we talk about a civil war, we instantly think of the Lebanese conflict - in which the sectarian element mingled with ideology and regional struggles - or the events that took place in the former Yugoslavia, where violence took on an ethnic dimension. However, people tend to forget that the most notorious civil war in modern history was the Spanish civil war between 1936 and 1939. This revolved around the very identity of the state, and was waged between ultranationalists on the one hand, and a mixture of Spanish leftists on the other, the latter with foreign backing from the global left-wing movement.
With regards to the Syrian crisis, providing an accurate description of the situation can be very confusing. This was made apparent by the controversial comments of Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN's new international envoy, who said explicitly that what is required now is not to prevent a civil war in Syria, but rather to bring it to an end, implying that a civil conflict is already taking place on the ground.
Yet this only adds to the confusion because the elements of a civil war are not present in Syria. At the beginning, the entire spectrum of the Syrian people staged an ordinary, peaceful uprising, having been driven mad by decades of restlessness. They rose up against a rigid, totalitarian regime that had achieved nothing politically, and had failed to offer anything economically. The Syrian protestors were seeking to channel the experiences of both Tunisia and Egypt, and they never expected the al-Assad regime to react in a manner whereby bullets would be fired at peaceful demonstrators. This response caused the uprising to gradually shift into an armed revolution, which the regime is repelling everyday by escalating its use of force. Bullets have become mortar shells, and now tanks, missiles and aircraft are being used.
The images uploaded every day on the internet - whether by the opposition or by the regime and its Shabiha forces – are reminiscent of the massacres that were committed in Bosnia in the 1990s. On the other hand, the scenes of mass shelling and demolished houses and neighborhoods are all reminiscent of the scenes of the civil war in Lebanon.
It is no secret that some believe the Syrian crisis, in the worst-case scenario, could follow a similar course to the events in the Balkans in the 1990s. Some support this argument by citing the threats made by the al-Assad regime and its adherers, warning that they will export the crisis and set the entire region on fire. We may be witnessing the beginning of this with clashes in the Lebanese city of Tripoli, and with Turkey’s complaints that Syria is inciting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). A second scenario, reflected in the statements of Syrian and Hezbollah officials, sounds more Lebanese. These officials propose to enter into dialogue on equal footing after the fighting stops, where neither party will be declared the winner or the loser, and may God be merciful with those who were killed.
The truth is that neither a Balkan nor Lebanese style settlement will be appropriate for Syria. This is because no crisis is exactly the same as another even if the features seem similar, and similarly, solutions of the past cannot be applied to the present because each era has its own dimensions and mechanisms. The battles taking place now in Syria may constitute a civil war, yet it is a fight between a regime and its beneficiaries on the one hand, and ordinary people on the other. The demands of these ordinary people are, and always have been, freedom and social justice. We did not hear anyone within the opposition advocating the exclusion of certain Syrian groups, or for a specific region to be granted independence. On the contrary, the evidence suggests that it is only the al-Assad regime that is seeking to do so.

Syria: Facts and red lines
By Abdullah Al-Otaibi/Asharq Alawsat
Amidst the scenes of bloodshed and torn-off limbs in Syria, the unlimited support the Bashar al-Assad regime is receiving from Russia, China and Iran, and the futile Western attempts find means of salvation and ensure the protection of the Syrian people, a number of facts must be pointed out:
First: The Syrian revolution began as a peaceful one, influenced by the so-called Arab Spring. Yet, the Syrian revolution is a special case, for it is being fuelled by the bloodthirsty history of a tyrannical regime par excellence, on a scale unrivaled by any other country in the region or the contemporary world. The regime opted to counter the revolution with the maximum amount of force, violence and bloodshed possible, in an effort to quell the uprising in accordance with its own experience and oppressive history. This naturally and logically prompted the uprising to develop into an armed revolution, whereby the people responded to the regime’s use of force by using weapons of their own, with increasing emphasis on al-Assad’s downfall, and many believe the hour has come.
Second: The use of weapons began on an individual level and was fueled by the rage and hatred that the regime spread widely among the peaceful public. Many of those people had not previously participated in the ongoing peaceful revolution, and nevertheless their towns and homes were bombarded. The killing of their relatives and friends prompted them to transform into resilient opponents of the wild regime, seeking to enact revenge and commit violence against it.
Third: In a new development, the mass anger and protests developed from mere reactions into political and military action with systematic organization and planning. Politically, this was undertaken by the Syrian National Council (SNC), and militarily by the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Whilst the political approach failed to make much headway given that feeble Western powers were unsuccessful in issuing any international resolutions, or in taking any action outside of international organizations, the military process was effective and influential, albeit through a zigzag course for a variety of reasons, and qualitative operations were carried out with the FSA gaining control of large areas of the country.
Fourth: An outside observer of the situation would confirm that, in general, the regime's power is in decline; it is shrinking and losing control of numerous areas, whilst on the other side the FSA's power is on the rise and gaining more strength and influence. This is despite the fact that the regime's army and troops are being constantly resupplied by Russia and Iran. As for the FSA, it only receives backdoor support that cannot be compared to the al-Assad regime’s resources. Nevertheless, the regime's symbols and supporters (before anyone else) are becoming convinced day after day that the regime's end is imminent. Fifth: The imminent collapse of the regime is clearly being reflected by major defections, whether militarily, politically, diplomatically or culturally. Everyone has begun to look for a safe way to jump off the sinking ship. Some have succeeded in doing so whilst others have failed, ultimately being killed by the regime's oppressive machine. Everyone now expects the regime to fall soon or later. There still seems to be a group seeking to defect but it is fearful of al-Assad’s oppression, aware that the regime will not hesitate to use the most violent and repulsive means to confront its opponents and defectors, whether inside Syria or in Lebanon, where the Syrian regime has long-term connections.
Sixth: the al-Assad regime has long considered Lebanon to be its back yard that supports its allies and represses, kills and bombards its opponents. The history of this relationship is long and there is countless evidence. However, the scene inside Lebanon is different now, as some have come to view the Syrian state as a rival whilst al-Assad’s supporters in Lebanon are growing frustrated at the status-quo and the future. Following the scandal of Michel Samaha, the stances of the pro-Assad Lebanese – whether they provide support in practice or merely in rhetoric – have differed markedly. This was clearly seen with Hezbollah – a party that receives its highest commands from Iran – which has adopted a particularly feeble discourse. There are others who seem less enthusiastic in their rhetoric than ever before, for example former General Michel Aoun. There are also others who are considering defecting but lack the courage of Walid Jumblatt, who once submitted to the will of al-Assad and caused the March 14th alliance to divide, thus enabling the Hezbollah government to seize control of Lebanon. However, Jumblatt has since spared no effort in calling for the end of al-Assad.
Seventh: All international and regional powers have drawn red lines for their opponents. The US has drawn a red line for the Syrian regime (only) with regards to chemical weapons; whist Russia has drawn similar borders as expressed by its Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who said "the red line is clear." The Islamic Republic of Iran never hesitates to say that Bashar al-Assad's security represents a red line. Finally the British Daily Telegraph newspaper, relying on Western intelligence, has uncovered an Iranian report, produced under the auspices of the Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei, which states that Iran “should demonstrate to the West that there are red lines over what it will accept in Syria". This all is happening whilst the Syrian people continue to suffer without a red line to protect their lives and futures, or to defend them. Eighth: All the Syrian regime's masks of resistance have fallen completely. Those who supported the regime politically, culturally and in the media all frantically searched for an exit strategy to preserve their personal dignity and stature. However, they were all exposed and are now searching for a new slogan or fabrication to hide behind.
Ninth: Lakhdar Brahimi’s mission will not fare any better than Kofi Annan's, for it is doomed to failure before it has even started. Its only achievement will be to grant al-Assad more time to kill his own people. Arab and Muslim states, and countries around the world, must draw red lines to prevent the extermination of the Syrian people and the al-Assad regime’s creation of a civil war in Syria. Those states must protect their interests in Syria and the region and establish themselves as strong and active players. They must prove that they are capable of responding to the new Iraq and its full submission to the Iranian agenda. Furthermore, Arab decision-makers must be wary of two trends within America: Firstly, there is a definite US bias towards supporting political Islam movements as they attempt to claim power in several Arab states, and secondly, the US is seeking to grant Turkey a dominant role with regards to what is happening in Syria, and therefore in the region as a whole.

Russia is disengaging from Syria: Arms shipments stopped, warships exit Tartus
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 29, 2012
Russian naval vessels have unexpectedly departed the Syrian Mediterranean port of Tartus and Russian arms shipments to Syria have been suddenly discontinued. debkafile’s military sources reveal that those and other steps indicate that the Russians are rapidly drawing away from the Syrian arena to avoid getting caught up in the escalating hostilities expected to arise from military intervention by the US, Europe and a number of Arab states. Russian intelligence appears to have decided that this outside intervention is imminent and Moscow looks anxious to keep its distance for now.
According to our military and Russian sources, these drastic steps must have been personally ordered by President Vladimir Putin. He is believed to have acted over the objections of some of his army and naval chiefs. This would explain the mixed statements issuing from Moscow in recent days about the disposition of Russian personnel at the naval base in Tartus and Russian military personnel in Syria.
Wednesday, Aug. 22, Commander of the Russian Navy Vice Adm. Viktor Chirkov said that if the fighting in Syria reached Tartus, Moscow may decide to evacuate the base. He stressed that this decision would have to be taken on the authority of President Putin. He was the first Russian official to suggest the possibility of an evacuation.
A week later, Aug. 28, Russian chief of staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov denied anything had changed in the working procedures of Russian military personnel in Syria or that there were any plans to evacuate the Russian naval base in Tartus:
"I think it's too early to draw conclusions [from the situation in Syria]," said the general. "No one is running away from there.”
When a Russian journalist pressed the general and ventured to ask whether Moscow was terminating its military involvement in Syria, Marakov retorted, “Why are you so worried about Syria?"
But he didn’t answer the question.
debkafile's military sources disclose that the Russians have taken five significant military steps with regard to Syria in the last two weeks:
1. They cancelled a large-scale naval exercise dubbed “Caucasus 2012” scheduled to start mid-August in the eastern Mediterranean opposite the Syrian coast;
2. Warships from three fleets - the Northern, Baltic and Black Sea – concentrated opposite Syria have dispersed and returned to their bases;
3. Syrian President Bashar Assad was notified that Moscow was halting military aid to his army - except for intelligence updates and advice on logistics from Russian military advisers;
4. Moscow has not clearly announced a freeze on arms shipments, including replacement parts for Russian weapons, which make up the bulk of the Syrian army's weaponry. Officials have only said, “There are no large Russian weapons shipments planned in the near future to Syria."
5. The only Russian naval ship left in Tartus - a floating Russian Navy PM-138 shipyard – is also under orders to depart Tartus and return to the Black Sea in September.
A Russian source disclosed that all the remaining Russian personnel in Tartus have gathered on the floating shipyard, except for two officers on shore. This vessel and the remaining personnel are evidently packed up and ready to sail at any moment out of the Syrian port.

Assad says war takes time, downplays defections
August 30, 2012 /By Daily Star Staff/Agencies
BEIRUT/DAMASCUS: Syrian President Bashar Assad said Wednesday his regime needed more time to win the war raging in his country, acknowledging that his forces were struggling to contain the rebel challenge. The Syrian leader also addressed the growing stream of defections from the military and the government, but tried to play down the flight by saying it was healthy.
“We are fighting a regional and global war, so time is needed to win it,” Assad said in an interview with the pro-regime private TV station Dunya.
“We are moving forward. The situation is practically better but it has not been decided yet. That takes time,” Assad told the station, which is majority owned by Rami Makhlouf, a cousin of Assad and one of Syria’s richest men. He appeared to make light of the significant number of defections, some of them senior military and political officials – including the prime minister – and diplomats.
“Defections are a mechanism of self-cleansing of the nation,” said Assad. “If there is a Syrian citizen who knows of someone who wishes to flee but is hesitant to do so he should encourage him,” he said with a smile. He blamed his difficulties in defeating the rebels on the support being provided by outside forces that he said are fueling the rebellion.
Assad responded with a hearty laugh when told by the interviewer that rumors about his whereabouts often made the rounds among Syrians.
“I am here with you in the studio in Damascus,” he said.
Assad has rarely appeared in public since four of his top security officials were assassinated in a July 18 bombing in Damascus.
Appearing confident and relaxed, Assad paid tribute to the Syrian people, saying they stood steadfastly behind him and his armed forces.
But he criticized the leaders of onetime ally Turkey, saying some of them were “ignorant.”
Syrian officials routinely cite neighboring Turkey, along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, as among the rebels’ main supporters, providing them with money and weapons.
“The fate of Syria, I tell the Syrian people, is in your hands,” Assad said. “This broad base of the Syrian people protects the country.”
He also paid tribute to government forces. “If we ask ourselves which segment [of society] did more than all others in enabling this country to stand fast, it is undoubtedly the armed forces.”
Meanwhile, Syrian rebels said they destroyed five helicopters in a raid on a military airport between the cities of Aleppo and Idlib, while state television said the attack was repelled.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that the regime used fighter jets and helicopter gunships in clashes with rebels near the base.
Abu Mosaab, a rebel who said he took part in the attack, told AFP via Skype that opposition forces shelled Taftanaz airport, capturing two army tanks and destroying five helicopters.
“We destroyed five helicopters as well as buildings in the airport,” Abu Mosaab said, although the facility remained in army hands after the raid, during which the rebels lost two men before pulling back.
“The regime’s MiGs continue to bomb houses in Taftanaz, which has been emptied of its inhabitants,” the rebel added.
Syrian state television said the military repelled the attack with the airport suffering “no material damage.”
Initial reports indicated government troops suffered 14 casualties in Taftanaz, while two rebels and a civilian were killed elsewhere in Idlib province, according to the Observatory.
The airport has been the target of several attacks in past weeks by insurgents entrenched in Aleppo and Idlib, which have come under daily shelling by government forces.
In Aleppo, where the army and rebels have battled for over a month for control, fierce clashes broke out between the two sides in several districts, according to the Observatory, as rebels posted videos on YouTube purporting to show that they continued to hold territory in Syria’s largest city.
Meanwhile, air and ground bombardment killed at least 27 people in eastern neighborhoods of Damascus, prompting thousands of people to flee the area, opposition activists said. Many more were killed when troops briefly entered several districts after the shelling and airstrikes, carrying out summary executions before withdrawing, the activists said.
The civilian exodus was the largest from the area since the revolt against Assad began, they said.
Obaida Omar, an activist in Ain Tarma, said troops entered the house of his neighbor, a carpenter, and killed him as they conducted house-to-house raids.
“He had managed to send his family away. I entered after the troops left and found him hacked [to death]. I saw the bodies of three other men with bullet holes to their heads in another building the army stormed,” Omar said by phone.
An activist, who gave her name as Reem and who has relatives in the area, said: “Basically, anyone who has a car or got hold of transport fled.”
She said the bombardment had killed eight people in the Jobar district. The rest of the casualties were reported in Zamalka, Irbin, Kfar Batna, and Ain Tarma to the east, a string of working-class Sunni Muslim suburbs that surround the capital.
Activists said most residents of these areas were fleeing toward Damascus or northward to the town of Dumair.
State media said “terrorist mercenaries” had killed four civilians in Zamalka, using its term for rebels. They had “murdered citizens, including women and men, under the eyes of inhabitants ... The terrorists then gathered the bodies of the victims and put them in a mosque in Qadi Askar” district, news agency SANA said.
It said the assailants had planned to blow up the mosque and then blame the attack on government forces.
The Observatory also reported clashes in Aleppo, the central cities of Homs and Hama as well as the suburbs of Damascus.
For its part, the Local Coordination Committees in Syria said 122 people were killed in the day’s violence, with 58 of them in Damascus and its surrounding areas.
Violence Tuesday cost 189 lives: 143 civilians, 14 rebels and 32 soldiers, according to the Observatory.

Iran will form troika to explore Syria solution
August 30, 2012/By Marcus George, Yeganeh Torbati
Daily Star/DUBAI: Iran will form a troika with other non-aligned countries to explore solutions to the crisis in Syria, the Iranian foreign minister said Wednesday, and U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon called on Iran to use its influence to help end the violence there.
“It was recommended that the NAM [Non-Aligned Movement] troika get involved, with cooperation with other international organizations, specifically the United Nations,” Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi told a news conference Wednesday.
Such a troika would include Egypt, Iran and Venezuela, as the former, current and future holders of the NAM rotating presidency, as well as Lebanon and Iraq, said senior Iranian lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi, who visited Syria this week for meetings with senior officials, in comments to Fars news agency.
Ban met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran Wednesday, and urged them to use their influence to call on Assad to end the violence, Ban’s spokesman Martin Nesirky said.
“The secretary-general reiterated his opposition to the further militarization of the conflict and called on all states to stop supplying arms to all sides in Syria,” he said. Tehran accuses the West and Sunni Muslim Gulf countries of fueling Syria’s civil war by supporting the rebels. “Solving the crisis in Syria has one natural requirement, which is preventing the sending of arms to ... groups in Syria,” said Khamenei. Iran’s proposal for a three-month cease-fire has been presented to NAM foreign ministers for discussion and the outcome will be presented at the end of the summit Friday. Ban also addressed Iran’s nuclear program, calling for “concrete steps” from the Islamic Republic to prove its nuclear program was peaceful, and expressed concern about human rights in the country, Nesirky said.
But speaking in Jerusalem Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the NAM attendees were “saluting a regime that not only denies the Holocaust but pledges to annihilate the Jewish state, brutalizes its own people, colludes in the murder of thousands of innocent Syrians and leads millions in chanting “Death to America, death to Israel.”
Mohammad Mursi, the first Egyptian president to visit Iran since 1979, is also expected to present his own plan to stop the violence in Syria.
Last week, he spoke of forming a contact group comprising Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to resolve the crisis, an initiative the Iranian leadership is keen to pursue. But speaking to Reuters earlier this week, Mursi called for Assad to be removed from power, something Tehran would oppose.
Mursi’s message could also prevent the normalization of diplomatic relations between Cairo and Tehran, which broke down over Egypt’s peace agreement with Israel.
The summit was a tricky balancing act for Mursi, said Dina Esfandiary, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “This was a bit of a catch-22 situation for Mursi,” she said. “He would have attracted criticism either way, and only chose the option of going because it seemed the least controversial thing to do.”