LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِSeptember 11/2011

Bible Quotation for today
Revelation 03/14-22: "To the angel of the assembly in Laodicea write: “The Amen, the Faithful and True Witness, the Head of God’s creation, says these things:
“I know your works, that you are neither cold nor hot. I wish you were cold or hot. So, because you are lukewarm, and neither hot nor cold, I will vomit you out of my mouth. Because you say, ‘I am rich, and have gotten riches, and have need of nothing;’ and don’t know that you are the wretched one, miserable, poor, blind, and naked; I counsel you to buy from me gold refined by fire, that you may become rich; and white garments, that you may clothe yourself, and that the shame of your nakedness may not be revealed; and eye salve to anoint your eyes, that you may see. As many as I love, I reprove and chasten. Be zealous therefore, and repent. Behold, I stand at the door and knock. If anyone hears my voice and opens the door, then I will come in to him, and will dine with him, and he with me. He who overcomes, I will give to him to sit down with me on my throne, as I also overcame, and sat down with my Father on his throne. He who has an ear, let him hear what the Spirit says to the assemblies.”

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Is Erdogan being reckless/
By Tariq Alhomayed/August 10/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for September 10/11
Israeli embassy break-in led by Jam'a al-Islamiya of NY 1993 bombing
Egypt: We are committed to maintaining Israel peace treaty
Erdogan slams Obama for silence on Israel's Gaza flotilla raid
Zvi Bar'el / Arab Spring succeeded, it's Egypt that failed
Analysis / Crises with Turkey and Egypt represent a political tsunami for Israel
U.K., Germany condemn attack on Israeli Embassy in Cairo
16 Killed as Arab League Launches Syria Peace Bid
Arab League chief urges stability in Syria during Assad meet
Libya fighters battle for Gadhafi-held Bani Walid
Egypt vows to try those who targeted Israel mission
Lebanese Army Thwarts Smuggling of Tasers to Syria
Assad meets Arab envoy, activists report killings
Rai’s comments on resistance draw March 14 criticism

Sarkozy to al-Rahi: Assad’s Regime is Over
Christian Figures Prepare ‘Arab Spring’ Principles to Respond to al-Rahi
Mustaqbal Pursuing Initiative to Fund STL through Draft Law
Jumblatt: Hezbollah able to defend suspects at The Hague
Berri: Rai's views on Syria helps protect Lebanon
2013 Parliamentary Polls: Opposition Fears Hizbullah’s Arms

Israeli embassy break-in led by Jam'a al-Islamiya of NY 1993 bombing
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 10, 2011,
In first new disclosures on the storming of Israel's Cairo embassy which started Friday night, Sept. 9, debkafile's counter-terror sources reveal that the mob was led by the terrorist Jama'a al-Islamiya, the Egyptian founding branch of Al Qaeda, and two other radical Egyptian Islamist groups.
The February 1993 car bombing of the World Trade Center of New York, which was the forerunner of the Sept. 11, 2001 atrocities, was an early Jama'a operation under the al Qaeda label. Closely linked to Osama bin Laden's successor, Ayman al Zawahri, Jama'a al-Islamiya is now running for election in post-Mubarak Egypt.
Its mentor is the "blind sheikh" Omar Abdel Rahman, who is serving a life sentence for masterminding the first World Trade Center bombing. Jama'a adherents stormed the Israeli embassy Friday night along with activists of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian Students April 6 Movement.
debkafile's intelligence sources also reveal that Egyptian security forces delayed for eight hours before tackling the mob smashing into the embassy building and rampaging inside – even after US Ambassador Anne Patterson interceded on behalf of the six Israel security officers barricaded in the embassy's security room as the rabble battered on its steel door.
She acted to save their lives on direct orders from President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton after Ambassador Yitzhak Levanon and 80 members of staff and families had been collected from their homes and lifted out of Egypt by two Israeli military planes.
The Egyptian authorities only tackled the mob when violent groups broke into police headquarters in the upscale Giza district, stripped the gunroom and shared the weapons among themselves before returning to the street. Before that, the local police stood by and watched them sacking and burning the embassy without moving.
Scared of the rioters, the Egyptian commandos ordered to rescue the six Israelis under threat of lynch, discarded their uniforms and mingled with the crowd. When they reached the locked room, they were unable to open the steel door. The head of Egyptian unit had to find the Israeli Shin Bet director Yoram Cohen, who was in urgent conference with Israel's national leaders in the situation room, to obtain the code.
They then dressed the six Israelis like typical Egyptians and hustled them to safety past a throng of 40,000 howling for Israeli blood.
During the embassy attack until early Saturday Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu tried unsuccessfully to raise Field Marshall Mohammed Tantawi, head of the Supreme Military Council ruling Egypt, on the phone. Tantawi refused to take his calls.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak kept open lines to US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta in Washington and Egyptian intelligence chief Gen. Murad Muwafi in Cairo. At some point, Panetta was patched through to Muwafi through Jerusalem.

Sarkozy to al-Rahi: Assad’s Regime is Over

Naharnet /French President Nicolas Sarkozy informed Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi during his visit to France earlier this week that the “regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad is over,” reported An Nahar daily on Saturday. The patriarch received assurances from various French officials that “Lebanon and Christians minorities will not be sacrificed” for regional interests. In addition, they affirmed to him their support of the implementation of United Nations Security Council 1701 and the funding of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.
However, the daily noted that al-Rahi’s positions on Syria were not positively received by French officials, with Sarkozy informing him during their Monday meeting that the Syrian regime is coming to an end. The patriarch had stated on Wednesday: “Assad must be given a chance because he is implementing reforms in Syria.” An Nahar also reported that al-Rahi’s talks in France addressed Hizbullah and the Lebanese government.

Christian Figures Prepare ‘Arab Spring’ Principles to Respond to al-Rahi

Naharnet /Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi’s recent position on Syria has created further divisions between the March 14 camp and Jamaa Islamiya on the one hand, and the March 8 camp on the other. The daily Al-Liwaa reported on Saturday that academic, political, and cultural Christian figures have agreed to hold a conference, under the preliminary title of “Christians and the Arab Spring,” to produce a number of principles on Christians’ positions on the upcoming phase in the Arab world. A leading Christians figure told the daily that the Christian March 14 leaders are determined to hold a workshop with al-Rahi upon his return to Lebanon from France to discuss his recent stances on Syria. The patriarch had stated from France that Syrian President Bashar Assad should be given “a second chance” in the face of anti-regime protests because he has started to implement reform. The March 14 source said: “We are determined to confront the patriarch on this position and his vision of the Christians’ role in this transitional period in the region.” “We will determine our stand on Bkirki and our political and national ties with based on the answers we receive from him,” it added.

Rai’s comments on resistance draw March 14 criticism

September 10, 2011/By Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai came under fire Friday from the opposition March 14 parties but won praise from March 8 politicians for indirectly defending Hezbollah’s arms and linking the party’s arsenal to the termination of Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory.
Both Lebanese Forces MP George Adwan and Fares Soueid, coordinator of the March 14 Secretariat General, rejected Rai’s remarks on the divisive issue of Hezbollah, saying they ran contrary to the concept of state building and contradicted with the Maronite Church’s long-standing position in support of state authority.
In an interview with the Dubai-based Al-Arabiya satellite channel broadcast Thursday night, Rai, who was in Paris on an official visit, said: “Hezbollah’s arms are linked to several issues. We have said this to the authorities in France. Everyone says why is Hezbollah carrying arms? We responded that the international community did not exert pressure on Israel to withdraw from Lebanese territory. As long as there is an occupied Lebanese territory, Hezbollah will maintain that it wants to carry arms in defense of its land. What will we say to it then? Isn’t it [Hezbollah] right?”Soueid said Rai’s comments on Hezbollah’s arms were “surprising” for the majority of the Lebanese people and the Christian community because they “undermined the concept of the state.”
“Patriarch Rai’s statement is coming in contradiction with the [principles] of the Maronite Church which has since 1943 been supporting the project of state building,” Soueid told The Daily Star. “The Maronite Church is condemning the presence of non-legitimate weapons in the hands of any of the communities in Lebanon, Christian or Muslim.”
Soueid reiterated the March 14 parties’ position that rejected the presence of illegitimate arms in Lebanon.
“Since the Israeli withdrawal [from south Lebanon] in 2000, Hezbollah’s project has been extra-national … Hezbollah has a regional project linked to Iran and is supporting the Syrian regime,” he said.
The opposition March 14 parties, including former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s Future Movement, have launched blistering campaigns against Hezbollah, calling on the party to hand over its arms to Lebanese authorities. They also accused Hezbollah of running its own mini-state at the expense of state authority.“The state, and not any other Lebanese party, is responsible for defending Lebanon. It is the state that takes charge of forcing Israel to leave Lebanese territory and not any Lebanese party,” Soueid said.
Bsharri MP Adwan criticized Rai’s comments, saying they contradicted the concept of the state and justified the presence of non-state arms.
“We demand that the state defend Lebanon … Patriarch Rai’s remarks give a justification for the presence of non-state [arms] and the establishment of a mini-state within the state,” Adwan told LBCI television. “We have sacrificed a lot to have a strong state … Our respect and appreciation of Bkirki [the Maronite patriarch’s seat] is firm and permanent.”
Rai, whose remarks were published by some Lebanese newspapers Friday, also said that the estimated 350,000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon have arms and they want to return to their homes in Palestine and that Hezbollah wants to help them return.
Rai emphasized that only when the international community exerts pressure on Israel to vacate a parcel of Lebanese territory – the Shebaa Farms, Kfar Shouba hills and the Lebanese part of the disputed border village of Ghajar – and Israel allows Palestinians in Lebanon to return to their homes, can Hezbollah be asked to disarm.
“The international community must exert pressure on Israel to help them [Palestinians] to return to their lands,” Rai said, adding: “[When this happens], we can then tell Hezbollah, ‘Surrender your arms because they will no longer be needed.’”
Rai’s remarks on the six-month-long popular uprising in Syria against President Bashar Assad have also caused a stir in the Christian heartland, when the patriarch warned that the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria posed a threat to the Christians there.
“If the situation further deteriorated in Syria and we reached a more radical rule than the current rule, like the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood, Christians there would pay the price, either in the form of killings or displacement. Here is the picture of Iraq is front of us,” Rai said during a news conference in Paris.
Christians and churches in Iraq have been targeted in the past by militant Muslim groups linked to Al-Qaeda.
Rai also urged the international community to give Assad a chance to carry out political reforms and launch dialogue with opposition parties. He said Assad is an “open-minded person who studied in Europe but he cannot make miracles.”
Criticizing Rai’s comments on Syria, Adwan said: “Seeking protection from any party does not protect the Christians. Portraying the Christians as if they are a party [to the conflict] in Syria does not serve the Christians or Bkirki’s historic line.”
Soueid accused Rai of supporting Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun at the expense of Christian unity.
“The Maronite patriarch should support the idea of unity of Maronite Christian leaders and not be against the point of view of other Maronite leaders,” Soueid said. “He who wants the unity of the Christian community as Beshara Rai pretends should be impartial and not support the point of view of one political camp inside the Christian community,” Soueid said. Asked to elaborate, he said that Rai is supporting Aoun.
Meanwhile, Rai’s remarks on Syria and Hezbollah won praise from the Hezbollah-led March 8 parties.
Aley MP Talal Arslan hailed Rai’s declared position in France as the peak of wisdom and responsibility, saying it was designed to “restrain the Western states’ colonialist ambitions.”
“It is the duty of every wise man and patriot to respond favorably to Patriarch Rai’s move. A national voice should be raised in the face of colonialist forces which are coveting the region’s resources and which seek to solve their economic and social problems at our expense even if this led to the destruction of our countries,” Arslan said in a statement.
Marjayoun-Hasbaya MP Qassem Hashem from Speaker Nabih Berri’s parliamentary Development and Liberation bloc, called on Lebanese factions to adopt Rai’s position.
“The patriarch’s position is the essential way to preserve and protect Lebanon amid what is happening in the region. This is the wise policy that can save the country and confirms the all-embracing national principles and choices,” Hashem said.
However, Al-Jamaa al-Islamiya criticized Rai’s comments on Syria. The group rejected Rai’s comment that a Sunni regime in Syria would escalate Sunni-Shiite tension in Lebanon.
“This has been disputed by history which [has proven] that Lebanese families have lived together for decades without fearing each other,” the statement said. It called for reviving Muslim-Christian dialogue to reassure all the country’s communities.

2013 Parliamentary Polls: Opposition Fears Hizbullah’s Arms

Naharnet /A prominent opposition source voiced on Saturday a concern that the 2013 parliamentary elections may be threatened by Hizbullah’s arms that “are still obstructing any discussion over adopting proportional or majority rule representation in the parliamentary polls electoral law.” MP Butros Harb told the daily An Nahar in remarks published on Saturday that he received complaints from Lebanese expatriates that the Lebanese government was stalling in taking the necessary measures to grant them the right to vote in the 2013 polls. The MP recently returned to Lebanon from Australia. “It’s as if the government doesn’t want expatriates to participate in the elections because the political trends outside the country lean towards establishing an independent and democratic Lebanon,” Harb added.  He therefore called on the government to adopt the law allowing expatriates to vote in the parliamentary elections before the deadline for its ratification. The cabinet has until the end of 2012 to adopt the law.

Mustaqbal Pursuing Initiative to Fund STL through Draft Law

Naharnet
The Mustaqbal movement is seeking to present a draft law on funding the Special Tribunal for Lebanon to parliament in order to tackle the $32 million Lebanon is obligated to pay for the international court. Informed sources told As Safir newspaper in remarks published on Saturday that former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his allies in the March 14 camp are aiming to counter Hizbullah and its allies’ attempts to thwart the funding of the court. Lebanon is obligated to pay a 49 percent share of the STL’s funds. The sources said that the Mustaqbal bloc MPs may seek to present a draft law on funding the tribunal after the 2012 state budget is approved. As Safir added that the opposition is confident that it will receive the majority of votes at parliament should the funding be subject to a vote, explaining the March 14 MPs, Premier Najib Miqati, National Struggle Front MPs, and MPs supporting minister Mohammed Safadi and Ahmed Karami back the tribunal. The March 14 camp is fearful however that the draft law would fall victim to stalling at joint committee meetings. Miqati had recently announced that “it is in Lebanon’s interest to pay its share of the tribunal funds.”Lebanon has not yet paid its share for the year 2011. In 2010, the Hariri government paid the funds through a treasury advance that incurred criticism from Hizbullah and its allies. At the time, the funding was not discussed at parliament due to the country’s political crisis, which eventually led to the toppling of Hariri’s government.

Jumblatt: Hezbollah able to defend suspects at The Hague
September 10, 2011 The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt expressed confidence that Hezbollah could mount a capable defense for four of its members indicted in the assassination of statesman Rafik Hariri and reiterated his support for funding the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). “I don’t think Hezbollah lacks the ability to get lawyers or that it needs someone to defend itself, I even think that Hezbollah can argue with the tribunal to prove the innocence [of its members],” Jumblatt said in an interview with As-Safir newspaper that was published Saturday. Jumblatt added that a viable defense was possible, “especially given that [Secretary-General] Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah presented evidence of high value.”
Hezbollah has on several occasions presented what it says is strong evidence implicating Israel in the assassination of Hariri.
Jumblatt, who was one of the leading figures of the March 14 coalition following the assassination of Hariri but later re-positioned himself with the March 8 alliance, has said that he aims to remain a centrist alongside President Michel Sleiman and Prime Minister Najib Mikati while being part of a wide alliance within the March 8 alliance.
In his interview with As-Safir, Jumblatt also reiterated his support for funding of the U.N-backed court, echoing recent statements by Mikati, who has expressed a commitment to pay Lebanon’s share to the STL, “if it remains in the country’s interest.”
Mikati has also said that Lebanon cannot afford to abandon its international responsibilities, which would place the country in confrontation with the international community.
Jumblatt, in the interview, agreed with Mikati that cutting the funding of the tribunal would place Lebanon in confrontation with the international community, adding that Lebanon cannot afford to face any sanctions. “I fear that if Lebanon fails to fund the tribunal, then we will have to face sanction that we cannot handle. I think it is necessary to ensure the funding and then let the court take its course for years,” Jumblatt said. Lebanon has not yet paid the 49 percent share of the court’s funding for 2011, amounting to $65 million, which it is obliged to pay under the U.N. Security Council resolution which established the court to probe the 2005 assassination of five-time Prime Minister Hariri.
“I support financing the tribunal especially that there is a segment of Lebanese who believe in this tribunal and who place great hope on its ability to reveal the truth of who assassinated Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and others,” the PSP leader said. Financing the tribunal, which indicted four Hezbollah members in late June, has been a disputed issue between rival political parties.
The March 8 alliance, led by Hezbollah, has voiced skepticism regarding the tribunal, accusing it of being politicized and biased, and has urged the Cabinet to halt funding and withdraw Lebanese judges working with the court. The rival March 14 coalition, led by Hariri’s son, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, has insisted that the government meet its international obligations, particularly toward the STL and the court’s funding. Hezbollah, which has repeatedly denied involvement the assassination of Rafik Hariri, regards the four indicted suspects - Mustafa Badreddine, Salim al-Ayyash, Hasan Aineysseh and Asad Sabra – as honorable members of the resistance who had fought valiantly against Israel.

Berri: Rai's views on Syria helps protect Lebanon

September 10, 2011/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri backed over the weekend controversial statements by Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai on the situation in Syria, describing the religious leader’s comments as serving to protect Lebanon. “The patriarch’s comments in Paris protect Lebanon from danger and I agree with what he stated and affirm his vision that is rooted in both a religious and national background,” Berri said in comments published Saturday by An-Nahar newspaper. Earlier this week Rai warned against the fall of the present leadership in Syria, stressing that power could fall into the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood and thus threaten Christians in Lebanon’s neighbor.
“If the situation further deteriorated in Syria and we reached a more radical rule than the current rule, like the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood, Christians there would pay the price, either in the form of killings or displacement. Here is the picture of Iraq in front of us,” Rai said in Paris Monday. Rai also urged the international community to give Assad a chance to carry out political reforms and launch dialogue with opposition parties. Assad is an “open-minded person who studied in Europe but he cannot make miracles,” Rai said.
In his interview with An-Nahar, Berri, who has described stability in both Lebanon and Syria as interdependent, said Lebanon held a unique position in the region that safeguarded the presence of Arab Christians. The Patriarch’s comments, reflecting Vatican fears over the presence of Christians in the region according to media reports, has sparked controversy among members in the March 14 coalition, which has voiced sympathy with pro-democracy protesters in Syria.
Rights group say around 2,200 civilians have been killed in what they describe as a brutal crackdown by Damascus.
Damascus blames the death of protesters on “armed terrorist gangs” and says members of the army have also been killed in what it describes as a conspiracy targeting the country.
The international community has condemned Assad’s crackdown and leading Western nations such as the United States have called on the Syrian president to step down.
On Saturday, Al-Jamaa Al-Islamiya and Future Movement both voiced their regrets over Rai’s statements on Syria. in their
“The Sunnis of Lebanon and Syria are the most protective of people when it comes to minorities who have lived among them for a long time and shared the best humanitarian and national relations,” Al-Jamaa al-Islamiyya official Bassam Hamoud told reporters after meeting Future Movement MP Bahia Hariri at her residence in Sidon, south Lebanon.
MP Boutros Harb, a member in the March 14 coalition, also voiced his regrets over Rai’s statements. Stressing that Christians had suffered immensely under the rule of Assad, Harb said he disagreed with the patriarch’s views. “The patriarch knows we respect him, but what he said does not reflect our point of view. I do not agree with his conclusion,” Harb told Ash-Sharq Radio Station Saturday. "He [Rai] knows what is best in terms of religious matters. However, we know what is best when it comes to political matters.”

Assad meets Arab envoy, activists report killings September 10, 2011

By Dominic Evans /BEIRUT: Arab League chief Nabil El-Araby met Syria’s President Bashar Assad Saturday to push for reforms and an end to bloodshed, even as activists said Assad’s forces killed six people in a relentless crackdown on dissent. The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said five people had been killed in the Bab Amro district of Homs during a sweep by troops and security forces. A 45-year-old man was shot dead by security forces at a checkpoint in the northern province of Idlib, it added.
Assad has responded to nearly six months of street protests, inspired by Arab uprisings that have overthrown three North African leaders, with a mix of repression and promises of reform that protesters have dismissed as too little too late.
The Syrian state news agency SANA said Araby told Assad the Arab League “rejected any form of foreign intervention in Syrian internal affairs” and that the two men agreed practical steps to speed up reforms in Syria.
Araby had originally been due to travel to Damascus Wednesday, but Arab diplomats said Syria had requested a delay, reflecting its unease over any outside criticism or involvement.
Foreign ministers of the 22-member Arab League told Syria two weeks ago to work to end the months of violence “and resort to reason before it’s too late.”
The Cairo-based organization has been under pressure to speak out more openly following the uprisings that ousted leaders in Tunisia and Egypt and led to the overthrow of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi –achieved with NATO air intervention endorsed by the Arab League.
The United States and European Union have imposed sanctions on Syria, and regional powers have grown increasingly critical of Assad, but no country has proposed the kind of international military action that helped bring down Gaddafi.
Authorities in Damascus blame armed groups for the violence and say 500 soldiers and police have been killed since the unrest erupted in the southern city of Deraa in mid-March.
The United Nations says 2,200 people have died in the uprising, while a Syrian grassroots organization says security forces have killed 3,000 civilians.
Syria has barred most independent media, making it hard to verify accounts by activists and authorities.
Activists said six people were killed during protests after midday prayers Friday.
In a change to their rhetoric, demonstrators demanded international protection to stop civilian killings in what has become one of the most violent responses to the Arab uprisings that have swept the Middle East and North Africa.
“Where is the international community?” shouted protesters in the Damascus suburb of Qudsaya.
In Hajar al-Aswad, in southern Damascus, protesters carried a large green, white and red Syrian flag dating back half a century to the era before Assad’s Baath Party seized power.
“After all these killings and assaults, where is the international protection?” read a banner carried by protesters chanting: “The people want the execution of the president.”
Syria’s powerful neighbor Turkey has indicated that its patience is wearing thin given the lack of progress in its efforts to convince Assad to halt the military assaults.
“We are moving patiently now. But after consultations, we will give our final word, which will show an exit from the tunnel,” Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Al-Jazeera Television in an interview broadcast on Thursday.
“We are not the ones who put Assad on this dead-end road. It was he and those around him who entered this dead-end road.”
The European Union, which banned imports of Syrian crude oil last week, moved closer Friday to banning investment in the oil industry, EU diplomats said. Syria is only a small oil producer but nearly all of its exports last year were bought by Europe, and European oil firms have investments there.
However, there has been no hint in the West of any appetite for military action along Libyan lines. Syria has three times Libya’s population and, unlike Moammar Gadhafi’s Libya, is intricately linked to neighbors on the fault lines of Middle East conflicts.
Syria has long had a strong regional alliance with Iran but, in an unusual sign of unease, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad urged Assad this week to open talks with the opposition, saying a military crackdown was “never the right solution.”
Iran crushed its own anti-government street protests in 2009 after Ahmadinejad’s bitterly contested re-election.

Is Erdogan being reckless?

By Tariq Alhomayed
Asharq Al-Awsat
Following the Turkish escalations towards Israel, which has occurred against the backdrop of Tel Aviv’s refusal to apologize to Ankara for the attack on the Turkish “Freedom Flotilla” that was heading to Gaza, the question that must be asked today is: Is the Turkish prime minister being reckless? Is Erdogan another Nasser?
It is difficult to answer “yes” or “no” to this question; however information indicates that Turkey’s actions may be calculated, and based on the changes that have taken place in the region, particularly the political earthquake witnessed by the Middle East this year. Those closely monitoring events will find a number of indications in this regard, most importantly is the timing, namely that the Turkish escalation towards Israel comes at a time when Ankara has decided to move away from its neutral [regional] position, allowing NATO to deploy the radar component of a US-sponsored missile shield project in its territory. This NATO anti-ballistic missile defense system aims to protect Europe from attacks from Iran, and so Turkey’s decision in this regard also explains the recent Iranian escalation against Ankara. As one Arab foreign minister informed me, “the most important thing in politics is timing”, and so Ankara has abandoned its unrealistic theory of “resetting problems” and announced its lack of neutrality towards Tehran. This is very important, and is something that will have a number of repercussions. This can be seen in the recent attacks carried out by Kurdish groups against Turkish targets; this may represent an escalation against Ankara as punishment for its position towards the al-Assad regime that is itself facing a popular uprising.
It is important here to recall that whilst Turkey refused then US President George W. Bush’s request to allow American troops to enter Iraq through its territory during the Iraq war, Ankara today is allowing President Obama to deploy an early-warning radar [as part of the US-led NATO’s missile defense system] on its soil with the objective of deterring Iran. This is a serious Turkish message to Israel, and particularly the Israeli army, to the effect that Ankara will not go too far with regards to freezing its relations with Tel Aviv. This is because the deployment of this military component on Turkish soil represents Ankara providing a great service to Israel, which is escalating its objections against Iran’s nuclear project.
This is not all regarding Turkey's position towards Israel, for Ankara is also benefitting, arithmetically speaking, from the winds of change in the region, as opposed to Tehran. Therefore Turkey’s strained relations with Tel Aviv are not important right now, for Turkey is an active member of NATO who most recently addressed the madness of Gaddafi, whilst [Turkish Foreign Minister] Ahmet Davutoglu was one of the first foreign officials to visit Benghazi following the liberation of Tripoli. In addition to this, Turkey is not affected by the changes in Egypt, rather it benefits from the strengthening of the position of the Muslim Brotherhood there. In addition to this, Ankara is no longer occupied with Syrian – Israeli mediation, for al-Assad’s position [in Syria] does not make this possible today, particularly as his regime is on the verge of collapse. This [the collapse of the al-Assad regime] would also not harm the Turks, whilst even if al-Assad does manages to remain in power; he would be weak and isolated and will need Turkey, not vice versa.
Turkey is also today playing no role in Palestinian – Israeli mediation, particularly as [Palestinian President] Mahmoud Abbas is preparing for a major battle at the United Nations later this month in an attempt to secure the international recognition of a Palestinian state, whilst Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Hamas has extended its truce with Israel, despite all the attempts to explode the situation in the Gaza Strip in defense of al-Assad. This is not to mention Israel, who is itself today experiencing a kind of international isolation. Of course, Turkey believes – and this is something that is clear for all to see – that there is a vacuum in the region today; this is a role that Ankara is eager to fill by playing a leadership role in the region, at the expense of the Arabs and Iran. Therefore, regardless of the surprise at the Turkish escalation towards Israel, we must closely look at all the information regarding Turkey, for Erdogan is not being reckless, rather he is acting as if he is another Nasser!