LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِOctober 23/2011

Bible Quotation for today/The Mission of the Twelve
Matthew 10/05-15: "These twelve men were sent out by Jesus with the following instructions: Do not go to any Gentile territory or any Samaritan towns. Instead, you are to go to the lost sheep of the people of Israel. Go and preach, The Kingdom of heaven is near! Heal the sick, bring the dead back to life, heal those who suffer from dreaded skin diseases, and drive out demons. You have received without paying, so give without being paid. Do not carry any gold, silver, or copper money in your pockets; do not carry a beggar's bag for the trip or an extra shirt or shoes or a walking stick. Workers should be given what they need. When you come to a town or village, go in and look for someone who is willing to welcome you, and stay with him until you leave that place. When you go into a house, say,  Peace be with you. If the people in that house welcome you, let your greeting of peace remain; but if they do not welcome you, then take back your greeting. And if some home or town will not welcome you or listen to you, then leave that place and shake the dust off your feet. I assure you that on the Judgment Day God will show more mercy to the people of Sodom and Gomorrah than to the people of that town!

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
What Gaddafi’s Death Teaches the Middle East…And Should Teach the West/Barry Rubin/October 22/11
Saudi Prince Nayef's rise in tune with Muslim Brotherhood's regional takeover/DEBKAfile/October 22/11
Gaddafi: What a finale/By Tariq Alhomayed/October 22/11
Ignoring the Iranian threat/By Tony Badran/October 22/11
A mistake to be set right/By: Hazem al-Amin/October 22/11
Islamists poised to make gains in Tunisian election/By: Raphael Thelen/October 22/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for October 22/11
Former president of Lebanon and Yugoslavia tribunals Antonio Cassese dies of Cancer
Tarshish Residents Prevent Hizbullah from Expanding its Telecom. Network in Town
Geagea: government should resign for the sake of Lebanon
Lebanese Army Bolsters Presence along Border with Syria
Lebanon: Promotions from Colonel to Brig-Gen. Halted over Hassan’s Failure to be Promoted
Hezbollah meets with UNIFIL head for first time
Nasrallah: Tel Aviv first target if Israel launches war
Incursions and STL drive political divide
Syrian incursions due to lack of borders: Charbel
Nasri Khoury: Syria committed no violations since border undefined
Lebanon's Arabic press digest - Oct. 22, 2011 - 3
Future bloc MP Samir Al-Jisr: Hezbollah behind armament in Tripoli
Al-Rahi Fears Possible Syria Civil War, Displacement of Christians
Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai meets with UN chief
President Gemayel: Statelets are intersecting in Lebanon
Russia supports STL, says envoy
Energy Minister Gebran Bassil  slams ISF Director
Sleiman voices hope Gadhafi’s death ushers new era
Iran's Ahmadinejad condemns 'killings,' 'massacre' in ally Syria - 38 minutes ago
Ahmadinejad: U.S. must put an end to Middle East colonialism
'Iran to move nuclear material underground in near future'
Israeli official: Cyprus military drills not meant to 'send message' to Turkey
Syria spent $3 billion on pound defense since revolt
New Video Shows Gadhafi Begging for Mercy after Capture
Gadhafi family demands body; NATO ends Libya war
Kadhafi's burial not decided: minister
Gadhafi was looks-conscious until the end
Gadhafi's death - who pulled the trigger?
Gadhafi’s final words: Do you know right from wrong?
Saudi Crown Prince Sultan dies, focus on Prince Nayef
Lebanon lost a brother in Saudi Crown Prince: Sleiman, Mikati

Tarshish Residents Prevent Hizbullah from Expanding its Telecom. Network in Town
Naharnet/The residents of the town of Tarshish in the Zahleh region prevented on Friday members of Hizbullah from expanding the party’s telecommunications network in the area, reported the daily An Nahar on Saturday. It explained that party members sought to expand the network as a team from the Telecommunications Ministry was installing fiber optic cables to improve internet services. “The municipal police noticed the party’s activity and prevented it from continuing its work,” it added. An Internal Security Forces patrol soon arrived at the scene to tackle the situation. Soon after, Hizbullah official Hussein Janbey arrived at the scene and a meeting was held between the Tarshish municipal council, headed by Gaby Samaan, and Hizbullah delegation headed by Janbey, reported al-Liwaa daily on Saturday. The municipal delegation informed Hizbullah of the residents’ rejection of the installation of the party’s network in the town because they believe it to be illegal. For its part, Hizbullah insisted on completing its activity, while the residents maintained their position resulting in tensions between the two sides and the “stormy meeting” ended, added the daily. The party delegation informed the residents that they had experienced more difficult situations in the past, insisting on continuing its activity and stressing that no one would stop it, reported al-Liwaa. A source from Tarshish told the daily that the town was surprised when Hizbullah members arrive to expand their network, revealing that another meeting will be held to tackle the affair. In addition, it said that this issue had started three months ago and the government and concerned ministries had not taken any action over this matter “despite the fact the party is trying to expand its network in the town by force.” Meanwhile, Telecommunications Minister Nicolas Sehnaoui said in a statement: “No side, whether it is official or unofficial, has the right to use the ministry’s network for its personal use without first receiving legal permission from the ministry to do so.MTV later reported on Saturday that armed individuals and cars with tinted windows have been spotted in Tarshsih after Hizbullah was prevented from expanding its telecommunications network.

Former president of Lebanon and Yugoslavia tribunals Antonio Cassese dies of cancer
By Associated Press, Updated: Saturday, October 22,
THE HAGUE, Netherlands — Renowned international law expert Antonio Cassese, who served as first president of the Yugoslav war crimes tribunal and later as president of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, has died after a long battle with cancer, the Lebanon tribunal announced Saturday.
The court set up to prosecute the assassins of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri said in a statement that Cassese died peacefully at his home in Florence, Italy, on Friday night.
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon says its former president, renowned Italian jurist Antonio Cassese, has died after a long battle with cancer. The court said in a statement Saturday, Oct. 22, 2011, that Cassese died peacefully at his home in Florence on Friday night. His death came less than two weeks after Cassese stepped down as the tribunal’s president due to his ill health. Cassese was one of the world’s most respected experts in international law. He also served as the first president of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia from 1993-97 and led the United Nations’ International Commission of Inquiry into Genocide in Darfur in 2004.
“For members of the tribunal he was the Maestro, whose towering ability as a jurist and a statesman was equaled by the immense personal warmth and humanity which made him our dear friend,” said David Baragwanath, who succeeded Cassese less than two weeks ago as president of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon after the Italian stepped down on health grounds.
Cassese was still working as an appeals judge at the tribunal at the time of his death.
Cassese was one of the world’s most respected experts in international law. He guided the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia during its first years of operation, from 1993-97, and led the United Nations’ International Commission of Inquiry into Genocide in Darfur in 2004.
Cassese was born in 1937 in Italy. The Lebanon tribunal did not release his exact age.
“He created and was the pre-eminent figure in modern international criminal law,” Baragwanath said. “His family extended across the globe to wherever there was injustice. His vision, intellect, dynamism and courage changed attitudes, institutions and lives.”
Cassese was professor of international law at the University of Florence from 1975 until 2008 and was a visiting fellow at Oxford University’s All Souls College from 1979-80.
He published extensively on international law, particularly international criminal law, and received several awards for his work.
Funeral arrangements were not immediately announced.
Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Geagea: government should resign for the sake of Lebanon
October 21, 2011/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea urged the government Friday to resign for the sake of Lebanon and the reputation of its lawmakers, citing cracks in the government which he said had became apparent in recent Cabinet sessions. “The government should resign today as an act of mercy for Lebanon and for the sake of the Lebanese state and the reputation of the people involved in it,” Geagea told reporters at his residence in Meraab. “After the recent Cabinet session, it appeared that the government no longer has the components of a government that is without political rivalry,” he added. A verbal altercation between ministers from the Progressive Socialist Party and Free Patriotic Movement ministers dominated the Cabinet session Wednesday. Two days later, Public Works Minister Ghazi Arisi said the government was not in good shape, but that political bickering should not hamper the work of the government. The government is also split over the issue of financing the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. PSP representatives, Prime Minister Nabjib Mikati and President Sleiman support paying Lebanon’s $32 million share of the U.N.-backed court’s budget, but FPM and Hezbollah ministers have vowed to block any attempt to finance the tribunal which has accused four Hezbollah member of involvement in the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Geagea also accused the government of being concerned with a grand Middle Eastern strategy rather than with the needs of the Lebanese citizen. He emphasized the need to resolve the harsh living conditions of Lebanese in a way that is compatible with the needs of the private sector, and suggested the creation of a committee that includes representatives of the sector, plus labor unions and government officials, in order to reach a reasonable resolution.

Future bloc MP Samir Al-Jisr: Hezbollah behind armament in Tripoli,
October 22, 2011 /Future bloc MP Samir Al-Jisr said on Saturday that Hezbollah is behind the armament of different groups in Tripoli. “Hezbollah, along with other parties such as Tawhid Movement and Syrian Socialist National Party (SSNP) [are arming groups] in Tripoli,” he told Voice of Lebanon (93.3) radio. He added that the Alawites are part of Tripoli’s community and they are not in opposition with the rest of Tripoli’s residents.  Future Movement official Mustafa Allouch said in an interview published on Thursday that Hezbollah is recruiting militants in Tripoli.-NOW Lebanon

Al-Rahi Fears Possible Syria Civil War, Displacement of Christians
Naharnet /Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Friday voiced concerns over a possible Sunni-Alawite civil war in Syria that “might lead to displacing the Christians from the region, like in Iraq.” At a press conference ahead of talks with U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon in New York, al-Rahi added: “We are not with the ruling regimes, we are with the reforms that are essential for the Arab peoples, but we are also with the democratic life.” He voiced his support for “democratic reforms” in the Arab countries, but stressed that change should not happen through “violence.”The patriarch noted that the Christians “are not minorities,” highlighting the fact that they “have existed in the region since 2,000 years.”Commenting on the controversial issue of Hizbullah’s arsenal of weapons, al-Rahi said that the Shiite party’s possession of arms is “justified, as Israel is still occupying Lebanese territory and violating Lebanon’s sovereignty.”
He stressed that the international community can play an effective role in resolving the issue by “pressuring Israel into pulling out (its troops) and ceasing its violations of Lebanon’s sovereignty.”Addressing the Palestinian cause, al-Rahi emphasized the need that the United Nations help implement the relevant U.N. resolutions “so that the Palestinians can have their state in which they would live in peace.”Earlier on Friday, al-Rahi hoped the so-called Arab Spring sweeping the region will be maintained through “dialogue, not conflict and civil wars.”
He also warned against “all foreign meddling” in the ongoing popular uprisings. “It won’t be an Arab Spring should violence and war drag on, as they reap numerous innocent victims and minorities would usually pay the price,” al-Rahi warned, at a reception thrown in his honor at the Lebanese consulate in New York.
“It won’t be an Arab Spring should anyone of the children of this nation die; it won’t be an Arab Spring should we end up with civil, religious or sectarian wars,” the patriarch, who is on a pastoral visit to the U.S., cautioned. However, al-Rahi added that “we are looking forward to an Arab Spring during which Muslims and Christians would live together, as we belong to one nation, one fate, one culture and one civilization that we have built together year after year.”The patriarch stressed that “it will be an Arab Spring should the Arab peoples realize their demands and right to a decent living and should all reforms be implemented,” hoping the new regimes will be built upon the principles of justice, public freedoms and democracy.

Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai meets with UN chief
October 21, 2011 /New TV station reported on Friday that Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai met with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in New York.
The report added that the meeting was also attended by UN Special Envoy for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559, Terry Roed Larsen.
However, the report did not elaborate any further. Rai kicked off a pastoral visit to the US earlier on October. -NOW Lebanon

Promotions from Colonel to Brig-Gen. Halted over Hassan’s Failure to be Promoted
Naharnet /President Michel Suleiman has halted the decision to promote officers in all security institutions because of the objection over the promotion of the head of the Internal Security Forces Intelligence Bureau Wissam al-Hassan, reported the daily An Nahar on Saturday. Prominent March 14 sources told the daily that Suleiman froze the promotions at the behest of Hizbullah and Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun over their opposition to Hassan’s promotion. The Intelligence Bureau chief has been up for promotion since July.
The promotion is not restricted to him, but it includes officers in the army and ISF. “The problem lies in the promotion of officers in the rank of colonel to brigadier general, which should be settled by the army and security chiefs,” added the sources. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Najib Miqati’s sources told the daily that the decision over the bill over the promotion of officers is still in the hands of Interior Minister Marwan Charbel and it has not yet been transferred to the premiership. As Safir newspaper reported on Saturday that Hizbullah and the FPM are still insistent on “removing all security symbols of the Hariri regime, especially individuals linked to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.” The daily al-Liwaa said on Saturday that Charbel will try to tackle this issue once he returns to Beirut from his trip to France. The March 8 camp has been critical of Hassan’s work in the past, accusing of him, among other things, of leaking the STL indictment in July.

President Gemayel: Statelets are intersecting in Lebanon
October 22, 2011 /Kataeb Party leader Amin Gemayel said on Saturday that statelets in Lebanon are intersecting and citizens do not know to which one they belong, according to a statement issued by the Kataeb Party. “There are many examples such as the ‘farce’ of the telecommunications network in Tarchich where [Hezbollah’s] network intersected with the state’s, while the state and governmental institutions are not interfering to protect themselves,” the statement quoted Gemayel as saying while meeting with delegations at his residence in Bikfayya. “The [government’s] institutions are falling back on all levels and heading towards the unknown,” he added. MTV station reported on Friday that Hezbollah threatened residents from the Baabda town of Tarchich after they had prevented members of the Shia party from installing a telecommunications network in the town. The Kataeb Party leader also said that his party is working for dialogue and making use of the Arab uprisings to achieve a change for the better which will help establish new Arab regimes that respect democracy, freedom and the rights of minorities. “This is why we called for a [civil] code of the Arab revolutions which will lead to the formation of new Arab regimes.” The Arab Spring, also known as the “Jasmine Revolution,” is a revolutionary wave of protests that has stormed the Arab world since December 18, 2010. So far, the Egyptian, Tunisian and Libyan regimes have fallen, while Bahrain, Libya and Syria have experienced massive civil unrest. -NOW Lebanon

Nasrallah: Tel Aviv first target if Israel launches war against Lebanon
October 21, 2011/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah has warned that Tel Aviv will be the first target in any war Israel decides to launch against Lebanon, Friday’s Al-Akhbar reported.
“Any war that Israel decides to initiate in the future will start in Tel Aviv, not in the occupied northern areas.” Nasrallah was quoted as saying in one of his meetings with high-ranking officials in the party. “They [Israelis] will launch a war [but] without having any of the red lines that they have drawn for themselves in previous wars,” he said. Nasrallah also said that the resistance has plenty of surprises in store for the Israelis which would change the face of the region. “If Israel decides to launch a war against Lebanon – and I'm speaking from an insider point of view on the resistance's capabilities – this time breaking the bones of the Israeli army will not be enough, we will crush them,” he added. Nasrallah’s remarks are the latest in a series of statements by the leader and other Hezbollah officials in which they have said the resistance is stronger than it once was, and denied that recent infiltration within the party has harmed the capabilities of the group. In June Hezbollah announced that it had discovered three of its members were spying for foreign intelligence agencies, including two working for the Central Intelligence Agency.
The Hezbollah leader also touched upon domestic and regional issues, and said that he is keen to maintain the relationship with Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt, who has recently expressed views in opposition to the party’s. He also discussed the importance of strengthening ties with the group’s allies, such as Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun. Regarding the controversial issue of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which has accused four Hezbollah members of involvement in the assassination of former statesman Rafik Hariri, Nasrallah said: “It is behind us now.” He also ruled out the possibility of a civil war in Lebanon, saying that whoever sought to spread strife is no longer able to do so, referring to the March 14 coalition, the former majority in government. Nasrallah spoke about the strategic importance of the Syrian regime for the resistance in the region, from Palestine to Iraq and Lebanon, and added that the situation in the neighboring country was much better than it was four months ago. The leader also spoke about Iran and the recent U.S. accusation that the Islamic Republic was involved in a foiled plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. “Information had it that the possibility of military aggression against Iran five years ago was 90 percent, but now this has declined to 10 percent,” he said.

Lebanese Army Bolsters Presence along Border with Syria
Naharnet /The Lebanese army has bolstered its presence along the Lebanese-Syrian border in light of recent Syrian army incursions into the country, reported the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat on Saturday. Field sources told the daily that the army has also intensified its patrols in those areas. “The residents of Jabal Okroum and Wadi Khaled in the North near the Syrian border have started to sense the army’s influence since its deployment in the region and they have become more at ease with the situation following the tensions that have accompanied the Syrian incursions,” they added. A security source told the daily: “The Lebanese army and security forces are constantly present along the north eastern border and they have been performing their duties in maintaining their duties in these regions.” “These forces weren’t waiting for security instability in order to carry out their responsibilities,” they stated. “The incidents that have taken place in Arsal and al-Qaa in the Bekaa and Okroum and Wadi Khaled demanded that the military presence in those regions be bolstered,” it explained.
“Our northeastern borders are secure and there is nothing to worry about despite some individual incidents,” it assured. “There is no need for tensions because we are dealing with a fraternal state that understands our situation as we understand its own,” it stressed. On Tuesday, conflicting reports said that Syrian troops had infiltrated al-Qaa in the Bekaa region, killing two Syrian army defectors. On October 4, Syrian tanks crossed the Lebanese border and headed towards the region of Arsal in the Bekaa where they fired at an abandoned battery factory.
On October 3, more than 20 Syrian soldiers infiltrated 500 meters deep into Lebanese territory in the area of Rajam Beit Khalaf and al-Kalkha in Wadi Khaled in the northern province of Akkar. A few weeks prior to that Syrian troops entered part of northern Lebanon where they accidentally fired at Lebanese soldiers.
The Secretary General of the Lebanese-Syrian Higher Council Nasri Khoury stressed on Friday the daily coordination between the Lebanese and Syrian armies, adding that they hold field meetings on a weekly basis to this end. He said after holding talks with Prime Minister Najib Miqati: “The Syrian army did not infiltrate Lebanese territory as it had been claimed and the Lebanese army can vouch for this as it is responsible for controlling the situation on the border.”

Russia supports STL, says envoy
October 22, 2011 /Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Zasypkin said on Saturday that his country supports the UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), according to a statement issued by Future bloc leader MP Fouad Siniora’s office. “Russia has always supported the implementation of all United Nations’ resolutions related to Lebanon, including the STL. Russia has backed and contributed to the funding of the tribunal, and still upholds it as mechanism of international legitimacy,” he said after meeting with Siniora in Beirut.
The Hezbollah-led March 8 parties – which currently dominate Lebanon’s cabinet – have opposed a clause in the Lebanese annual state budget pertaining to the funding of the UN-backed court, while Prime Minister Najib Mikati has repeatedly voiced Lebanon’s commitment to the tribunal. Four Hezbollah members have been indicted by the STL in the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. However, the Shia group strongly denied the charges and refused to cooperate with the court.He also voiced his country’s support for Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence and its interest in Lebanon’s stability and security, which guarantees that Lebanon will not be affected by events taking place in Syria, the statement added.
The United Nations says the Syrian regime’s campaign to clamp down on anti-regime protests has resulted in more than 3,000 deaths since March.-NOW Lebanon

Hezbollah meets with UNIFIL head for first time
October 22, 2011/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: UNIFIL head Maj. Gen. Alberto Asarta Cuevas met with Hezbollah MP Ali Fayyad for a working lunch Friday, the first meeting between the party and a high-ranking UNIFIL official, Hezbollah’s press office confirmed Saturday.
The two met at the headquarters of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, in Naqoura, south Lebanon, according to Saturday’s Al-Akhbar.
The press office did not elaborate further on the details of the meeting, but Al-Akhbar reported that Fayyad delivered Hezbollah's view on regional and domestic politics, and discussed the presence and role of UNIFIL in the south. The MP reportedly told Asarta that the peacekeeping force’s role should be limited to supporting the Lebanese authorities to gain sovereignty over its territory. “Fayyad affirmed that southerners do not have any animosity against the UNIFIL despite having some reservations regarding UNIFIL’s measures in their villages that create fear and lead to clashes,” the paper added.
The relationship between UNIFIL and residents in the south has occasionally been tense over the years, with some residents rejecting their presence and actions in villages there. In 2010, residents of some villages in the south clashed with French members of the peacekeeping force. A number of peacekeepers have also been wounded in stone-throwing incidents.
According to the paper, Fayyad also told Asarta “attacks against the UNIFIL represent an attack against stability” in the south.
Fayyad told Asarta UNIFIL seems inefficient at halting violations of Lebanon’s sovereignty and Israel’s occupation of Shebaa Farms and the Ghajar, the paper said.
The paper also said that Fayyad discussed U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701. The resolution ended the 2006 war between Lebanon and Israel and reiterated the importance of implementing previous resolutions including U.N. Security Council 1559 which calls for the disarmament of all militias in Lebanon.
In return, the paper quoted Asarta as saying that he was keen on preserving a good relationship with the residents and that the UNIFIL commander respects all the political parties and everything that Lebanon’s democratic system produces. In January, Hezbollah and Free Patriotic Movement ministers resigned from former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s Cabinet forcing its collapse and transferring the government’s majority to Hezbollah’s coalition.

Syrian incursions due to lack of borders: Charbel
October 22, 2011/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Syrian army incursions into Lebanon are the result of a lack of demarcated borders between the two countries, Interior Minister Marwan Charbel told An-Nahar.
“The problem is the lack of demarcated borders and what is happening in the eastern part is a dispute over which country the area belongs to,” Charbel said. “In light of that, the Syrian army pursues those who escape into a territory that they consider Syrian.”
“Syria does not have the right to purse [anyone] inside our territories and we have to protect our borders to prevent any damage from Lebanon on Syria and vice versa,” he added.
Residents of border villages in the Bekaa have reported several incursions by the Syrian army in recent weeks.
Earlier this month, a farmer was killed in the village of Arsal when Syrian soldiers reportedly crossed several kilometers into Lebanese and shot in the direction of farms.
The minister also told the paper that both changing and maintaining the government in Syria would create a problem in Lebanon.
“Changing the regime in Syria would result in an internal problem for Lebanon and even if [the regime] remains [there will be a problem]. Any amendments to Syria’s position today would result in a losing and winning party [in Lebanon],” Charbel told An Nahar in a wide ranging interview conducted in Paris.
“At the end, all of the Lebanese will lose if they do not recognize the dangerous situation we are in,” he added.
Lebanon’s rival political coalitions hold opposing views regarding Syria’s unrest and the country’s relationship with Lebanon.
Damascus’ allies represented in the Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance say the situation has improved Syria in recent months, and have described the anti government protests as a foreign conspiracy targeting President Bashar Assad. The March 14 coalition have repeatedly condemned the Syrian government’s violence against protesters, with former Prime Minister Saad Hariri expressing hope that the Syrian people will be victorious and achieve their demands of freedom. Charbel also warned that the unrest in the neighboring country could extend to Lebanon, and said that such an event would deal a heavy blow to the country.
“But everyone is aware of this, and knows that everyone would lose [if it happens],” he said.
The ministry has information about the possibility of assassinations, Charbel said. “If one of the officials is assassinated, God forbid, I do not know what might happen to the country,” he said. Charbel, who has voiced his support for financing the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, said that if the majority in the government were able to gather enough opposing votes against the U.N.-backed court, then Prime Minister Najib Mikati would resign. “If they are capable of gathering a majority against financing the tribunal, then Mikati would resign. That is the democratic game,” he said, adding that he thought the financing will be agreed upon. Charbel, who repeatedly warned of the dangerous situation in the country, said sharp political division among the government’s components and the regional instability are alarming, and urged lawmakers to be aware of such a fragile situation.

Incursions and STL drive political divide
October 22, 2011/By Antoine Ghattas Saab The Daily Star
Three major issues are weighing heavily on the political scene, leading to greater division between Lebanon’s two major political camps and causing paralysis on various levels. The issues are the funding of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, Syrian incursions across the Lebanese border and this week’s semiannual report by the United Nations on the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1559.
Political sources are linking the last two issues, as they both relate to Lebanon’s sovereignty. A number of Syrian incursions into Lebanon’s territory in order to pursue Syrian protesters or defectors and the continued presence of illegitimate weapons, which are at times directed toward individual citizens, are two clear indications of the weakness of the Lebanese state in carrying out its duties. Meanwhile, the 14th U.N. report on 1559 notes that the “developments in the neighboring Syrian Arab Republic have taken a growing toll on Lebanon’s political dynamics and have deepened political and sectarian divisions in the country. The divide between March 8 and March 14 has increasingly revolved around the question of Syria.” It also complains that the delineation of the Syrian-Lebanese border which was encouraged by the Security Council in Resolution 1680 of 2006 has yet to take place. Arms smuggling and the Syrian forces’ presence in border areas is further evidence of lack of action on 1680. Separately, the report urges states close to Hezbollah to help disarm the group and transform it into a purely political party that follows democratic rules. While the U.N. is pointing to the danger of Lebanese domestic division over Syria’s popular uprising, it is also warning Damascus that its relations with the West are influenced by both its brutal domestic crackdown and its support for Hezbollah, which is being ordered to keep Lebanon open to the possibilityof Syrian military intervention. As former MP Mustafa Alloush, a Future Movement official, puts it: “The release of the report is routine, as it takes place every six months, but this doesn’t eliminate the link between the release of report and the Syrian incursions, as its concern is the removal of Syrian forces from Lebanon.”
However, Alloush believes the U.N. won’t exert pressure on Damascus as long as officials in Beirut decline to take issue with the Syrian army’s actions, which have led to tension along Lebanon’s borders in the north and the Bekaa.
Sources close to President Michel Sleiman, meanwhile, highlight another aspect of the report, namely its mentioning the need to return to the National Dialogue process. The sources add that in the wake of Syria’s 2005 withdrawal, the Lebanese must now manage their own affairs. In the past, politicians could blame their lack of independent decision-making on the presence of Syria, but this excuse is now gone. The sources maintain that the duty of local leaders is to understand all of Lebanon’s complications and problems, and confront them by building trust among the various actors.

The Syrian-Lebanese Council’s secretary-general Nasri Khoury: Syria committed no violations since border undefined
October 21, 2011 03:03 PM The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The Syrian-Lebanese Council’s secretary-general said Friday that the Syrian army had not violated Lebanon’s sovereignty during recent incidents, because they occurred in disputed areas where the borders between the countries have not been demarcated. “There were no incursions into Lebanese territory from the Syrian army as it was claimed and you could easily ask the Lebanese army who is the responsible authority on the border,” Nasri Khoury told reporters after meeting with Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the Grand Serail.
“The area that was in the news is a common, disputed area and consequently we cannot determine whether it is Lebanese or Syrian because the borders have not been demarcated yet.”
Earlier this month, a famer was killed in the northern town of Arsal when Syrian soldiers reportedly crossed several kilometers into Lebanese and shot in the direction of farms.
Arsal residents have reported several similar incursions. There have also been reports of Syrian troops crossing the border in the Wadi Khaled area.
Lawmakers from across the political spectrum have for several years been calling on the government to demarcate the border between Lebanon and Syria.
“What happened in Arsal is that there is a disputed area with each side claiming it belongs to them,” Khoury said, adding that a committee from the council was working to resolve border demarcation issues. Khoury also criticized the media coverage of the incidents, saying that most of the reports were not followed by official statements to support them, and added that the Lebanese and Syrian armies were coordinating on a daily basis on several border issues. “I think that things are good between the two countries on all levels, regardless of all attempts to disrupt the relationship,” he said.

Energy Minister Gebran Bassil slams ISF Director
October 22, 2011 /Energy Minister Gebran Bassil said on Saturday that Internal Security Forces (ISF) Director General Achraf Rifi’s “duty” is to uncover spy networks.
“The least of Rifi’s duties is to uncover spy networks and he should not [get credit] for it,” he told Voice of Lebanon (100.5) radio. Bassil also addressed the latest events that took place on Friday in the town of Tarchich where the municipality prevented members of Hezbollah from setting up a telecommunications network. “The Telecommunications Ministry said that no one has the right to use the state’s networks,” he added. MTV station reported on Friday that Hezbollah threatened residents from the Baabda town of Tarchich after they had prevented members of the party from installing a telecommunications network in the town. Bassil said that his bloc’s ministers could resign from the cabinet when “[the Change and Reform bloc] sees it fit, but not as long as we are successful [in accomplishing our goals].” However, he ruled out the possibility of the cabinet collapsing due to controversy over the funding of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) saying that “there are more important files than the [STL] funding one.” The Hezbollah-led March 8 parties – which currently dominate Lebanon’s cabinet – have opposed a clause in the Lebanese annual state budget pertaining to the funding of the STL, while Prime Minister Najib Mikati has repeatedly voiced Lebanon’s commitment to the tribunal. Four Hezbollah members have been indicted by the UN-backed court for the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. However, the Shia group strongly denied the charges and refused to cooperate with the court.-NOW Lebanon

Lebanon's Arabic press digest - Oct. 22, 2011 October 22, 2011
The Daily Star
An Nahar
The town of Tarshish and the promotion decree issues reflect division
While the consequences of the recent verbal altercations between elements of the government are still visible, two provocative issues surfaced yesterday. The first was Hezbollah's repeated attempt to extend its telecommunications network within the town of Tarshish and the second is the issue of promoting officers.
The town of Tarshish stood united against the installations of the network. The residents told An-Nahar that Hezbollah members came to the construction site of the fiber-optic network yesterday and brought with them equipment to extend the gridlines belonging to their network, which the residents have previously opposed. Municipal police became aware of the issue and prevented the men installing the network before an Internal Security Forces patrol arrived.
Later that day, Telecoms Minister Nicolas Sehnaoui released a statement saying that no party, official or unofficial, has the right to extend any cables for a personals communications network, and that it should first have a legal permission from the ministry.
Meanwhile, March 14 sources told An Nahar that President Michel Sleiman, via a request from Hezbollah and MP Michel Aoun, has frozen the decree to promote officers in all related institutions because of some opposition against promoting the head of the ISF’s information branch Wissam al-Hasan.
As Safir
Rai warns against fundamentalist rule in the region
The issue of promoting officers opened the door to a multi-dimensional political clash that is expected to confuse the government , already troubled by internal problems.
Meanwhile the region's developments were the center of a discussion between U.N. secretary general Ban Ki-moon and Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai who warned against "civil war and the growth of fundamentalist movements and the possibility of these movements reaching government, since they are armed and well-financed.”
Rai reiterated the demands of implementing international resolutions, building a Palestinian state and the right of return for Palestinians refugees.
The two also discussed the issue of Hezbollah, with Rai saying that the party represents a problem and a cause of division. Rai said the solution cannot be found in Lebanon but only within the international community which should, first, place pressure on Israel to withdraw from the occupied territories and consequently rid Hezbollah of its excuse for arms.
“ Help us internationally so we could reach an understanding with Hezbollah domestically,” the patriarch said.
Meanwhile, the issue of promoting officers surfaced on the local scene transforming it from a routine promotion to a political matter par excellence. The conflict rests within the promotion of the head of ISF information Branch Wissam al-Hassan whose name does not sit well with the majority in the government.
Regardless of whether it is legal or illegal to promote Hasan, sources close to the majority said the time to bring up the issue of promotions is suspicious because the majority, Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement, are still trying to eliminate everything in the government that has to do with Hariri, especially those who have been involved in big cases such as the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.
Ad Diyar
Sami Gemayel holds president responsible: a communications network for Hezbollah in Tarshish is not allowed.
It seems that the Christian parties are seeking to resurface, especially after the regression of the March 14 forces from the political scene.
But Christian parties have decided to resolve any issue that seems to be an attempt to get rid of them, and to launch an attack against members of March 8 especially if it is related to the Hezbollah-Michel Aoun alliance.
In this regard, MP Sami Gemayel launched a scathing attack against Hezbollah, accusing it of taking advantage of the Telecoms Ministry's network to extend its own communications network in Tarshish. Gemayel said Hezbollah underestimates the dignity of the citizens and trespasses on their public property.
He held Hezbollah, the Lebanese government, the president, interior minister and defense minister fully responsible if Israel bombs Tarshish.
Later at night, the Telecoms Ministry released a statement explaining the situation: "Regardless of the accuracy of what has been circulating in the media about a conflict in Tarshish, the Telecoms Ministry would like to affirm that no party, official or unofficial, has the right to extend any cables for a personals communications network, it should first have a legal permission from the ministry.”
Meanwhile, Greek Orthodox Patriarch Ignatius IV Hazim supported Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai's warning against fundamentalist movements gaining power in Damascus, saying: "we express the same opinion but with a different approach."
Al Joumhouria:
Search has begun for Sadr and his companions in Libya.
Following the end of a bloody period and a difficult phase and while Libya prepares today to announce its liberation and the end of NATO operations after the killing of Col. Moammar Gadhafi, the scene in Syria was shaken when the Friday protests kicked off. Lebanon also witnessed a pro-Syrian people demonstration in Tripoli.
Domestically, the heated issues remained open,especially that related to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. In light of the interview with Hezbollah's secretary general Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah on Al Manar TV Monday night, sources close to Hezbollah emphasized the importance of waiting to see what Nasrallah will announce regarding the STL, Gadhafi's end and the fate of Imam Musa Sadr and his companions.
In the first serious investigation about the fate of Sadr and his companions, Sheikh Mohammad Yaacoub and journalist Abbas Badreddine, the director general of the Foreign Affairs Ministry, Haisan Jomaa, will travel to Libya through Tunis to follow up on the case and will also meet with Libyan officials. The Higher Shiite Islamic Council will meet today to discuss the new information regarding the fate of Sadr and his companions.

Saudi Crown Prince Sultan dies, focus on Prince Nayef
October 22, 2011
Daily Star/By Angus McDowall
DUBAI: Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Sultan has died, the royal court said on Saturday, opening the way for Interior Minister and reputed conservative Prince Nayef to become the likely heir apparent of the world's top oil exporter.
Prince Sultan, whose age was officially given as 80 and who died in New York of colon cancer early on Saturday Saudi time, had been a central figure in Saudi decision-making since becoming defence minister in 1962 and was made crown prince in 2005.
Saudi analysts predicted an orderly transition at a time when much of the rest of the Middle East is in turmoil as populations have risen up against their autocratic leaders.
Sultan's health had declined in recent years and he spent long periods outside the kingdom for medical treatment. A 2009 U.S. diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks described him as "to all intents and purposes incapacitated".
The country's ruler, King Abdullah, is now likely to summon an untested Allegiance Council of the ruling al-Saud family to approve his preferred heir.
Most analysts believe that is likely to be Prince Nayef, who was appointed second-deputy prime minister in 2009, a position usually given to the man who is third-in-line to rule.
"The succession will be orderly," said Asaad al-Shamlan, a professor of political science in Riyadh. "The point of reference will be the ruling of the Allegiance Council. It seems to me most likely Nayef will be chosen. If he becomes crown prince, I don't expect much immediate change."
He has gained a reputation as more conservative than either King Abdullah or Prince Sultan, with a close relationship with the country's powerful clergy. However, as king he might be more likely to follow to a moderate line in keeping with the al-Saud tradition of governing by consensus, say analysts.
King Abdullah set up the Allegiance Council in 2006 to make the family's complex succession process more transparent. In the past, the succession was decided in secret by the king and a coterie of powerful princes, before being made public.
Under the new system, the 34 branches of the ruling family born to the kingdom's founder King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud will each have a vote to confirm the king's nominee for crown prince or appoint their own candidate.
Prince Nayef has been interior minister since 1975 and has managed the kingdom's day-to-day affairs during absences of both the king and crown prince.
KORANIC VERSES
Saudi television broke its normal schedule early on Saturday to broadcast Koranic verses and footage of pilgrims circling the Kaaba in Mecca, Islam's holiest site.
However, as the royal court prepared for the transition of Prince Sultan's role to a new crown prince, shops, schools and universities were open as normal in Riyadh.
"With deep sorrow and sadness the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz mourns the death of his brother and his Crown Prince Sultan... who died at dawn this morning Saturday outside the kingdom following an illness," said a Saudi royal court statement carried on official media.
Funeral services for Sultan, who died on Friday New York time, will be held on Tuesday in Riyadh. An official at the Saudi embassy in Washington confirmed that Prince Sultan had died in New York but declined to give further details.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed her condolences over the death, saying U.S.-Saudi ties are strong.
"The Crown Prince was a strong leader and a good friend to the United States over many years, as well as a tireless champion for his country," Clinton said during a visit to Tajikistan, in the first official U.S. comment on his death.
"Our relationship with Saudi Arabia is strong and enduring and we will look forward to working with the [Saudi] leadership for many years to come," she told a news conference.
Kuwait, where the ruling family has been allied to the al-Saud for more than a century, said it would mark Sultan's death with three days of official mourning.
Jordan's King Abdullah said: "I would like to express my sincere condolences to my brother, the custodian of the two holy mosques. Jordan mourns the passing of such an Arab statesman and a leader and a champion of the Arab and Muslim cause."
SUCCESSION
Saudi King Abdullah, who is in his late 80s, had undergone a back surgery earlier this month but has been pictured since then in apparently good health.
"The stability of Saudi Arabia is more important than ever," said Turad al-Amri, a political analyst in Saudi Arabia. "All the countries around it are crumbling. The balance of power is changing in the Middle East."
Abdullah has gained a reputation as a cautious reformer since becoming de facto regent of the conservative Islamic country in 1995 and as king since 2005.
He was absent for three months in late 2010 and early 2011 following treatment for a herniated disc that caused blood to accumulate around his spine.
Unlike in European monarchies, the line of succession does not move directly from father to eldest son, but has moved down a line of brothers born to the kingdom's founder Ibn Saud, who died in 1953.
Sultan's death also means King Abdullah will have to select a new defence and aviation minister, key posts in a country that spends billions of dollars on weapons procurement.
Prince Khaled bin Sultan, the son of the late crown prince, has been deputy defence minister since 2001 and is one candidate to replace his father as minister.
"There traditionally has been a way of balancing the power relationships within the family that are important," said Robert Jordan, U.S. ambassador to Riyadh from 2001-03. "So I don't think we should automatically assume that Khaled bin Sultan will become the defence minister, although he has much experience and his father was in place for many years."

Saudi Prince Nayef's rise in tune with Muslim Brotherhood's regional takeover
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis
October 22, 2011/
Saudi Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz's long-expected passing aged 87 in New York Saturday, Oct. 22 could not have happened at a more auspicious time for his presumed successor, Interior Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz, to move up as next in line to the throne after King Abdullah.
With the rest of the Arab world beset by anti-regime uprisings - and just two days after Libya's Muammar Qaddafi was brutally killed in the streets of Misrata - the Saudi kingdom's 60-year old succession system offers a singularly smooth transition of power.
debkafile's Saudi experts point to three reasons why the hardheaded Prince Nayef, aged 78 (a spring chicken in the Saudi gerontocracy), may already have been chosen to step into the shoes of Sultan, who served as First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense and Aviation:
1. Nayef has a solid record of suppressing domestic opposition with an iron fist, including the challenge posed by al Qaeda.
2. He is a conservative in Saudi terms, meaning he is close to the clerical establishment.
In all five Arab nations overtaken by uprisings, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Libya, the Muslim clergy sided with the rebels against the regime. In Saudi Arabia, the imams are full partners with the royal rulers and will be especially supportive of Nayef.
3. The frontrunner for Crown Prince also maintains cordial relations with foreign Muslim Brotherhood chapters. Since the Brothers appear to be on their way to power in the new societies thrown up by the Arab "spring" – a trend with which President Barack Obama sympathizes – Nayef is the right man at the right time to lead the oil kingdom into integration with the dominant trend.
Although the Saudi royal house is obsessively secretive about its internal affairs, it was obvious Wednesday, Oct. 19 that something momentous was happening: As Sultan lay at death's door in a New York hospital, King Abdullah, aged 89 or 90, summoned an urgent meeting of the princely Allegiance Council to his own bedside in the hospital wing of the royal palace in Riyadh.
He too was laid up after a minor operation to help strengthen his spine had been performed by surgeons and staff summoned from the United States.
The picture appearing on this page is the first ever of the Allegiance Council meeting at a Saudi king's bedside and also the first photograph of a Saudi monarch minus his kefiyeh headdress. Both images provide glimpses of the disarray in Saudi royal circles.
King Abdullah formed the Allegiance Council five years ago. Whereas the king and crown prince had formerly been selected mainly by seniority among the many sons and grandsons of the founder and deals among the branches, the incumbent king decided it was time to have a royal mechanism for managing the transition of power in an orderly manner to ensure stable rule.
The new council was to have begun functioning after Sultan succeeded to the throne. However, as soon as the news of Sultan's imminent death reached Riyadh, the king called the Allegiance Council into session to approve the Nayef appointment without delay.
The process was not as untroubled as the king had hoped.
Prince Talal bin Abdulaziz, Nayef's most vocal opponent was conspicuously absent from the crisis meeting as were representatives of the royal branches which had been dropped out of the line of succession.
Nayef's appointment will not be formally announced until after Sultan's state funeral next Tuesday – or even the customary 40 days of mourning. This will give his rivals time to jockey for position – either to thwart it or cozy up to the future king.
The next contest will occur when the Allegiance Council has to choose Nayef's successor as crown prince, or third in line to the throne. For now the contest is wide open.
Despite his great age, King Abdullah appears to be in full control and going forward steadily with his program of reforms, especially the steps for the partial enfranchisement of women. But he is getting progressively weaker and Nayef's position a heartbeat away from the throne should be counted in months rather than years.

Gaddafi: What a finale!
By Tariq Alhomayed
Asharq Al-Awsat
When the Libyan revolution first broke out, Colonel Gaddafi came out to call on his forces to capture those he described as “rats”, saying capture them, and clear the [Libyan] streets of their presence, in his famous Zenga Zenga speech, in which he pledged to hunt down the protesters “room by room, house by house, and alleyway by alleyway.” However, by God, the tables were turned on him, and in an astounding manner!
Qatar-based Al Jazeera broadcast a video clip showing the moment that the Libyan rebels captured the fugitive Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. His face stained with blood, he appeared stunned and terrified as the rebels surrounding him chanted “God is great…God is great!” According to reports, Gaddafi said “what is happening…don’t kill me”. And so the Libyan rebels captured him as he sought to capture them, and he found himself surrounded by jubilant Libyan fighters chanting “God is great”, with smiles of joy alighting their faces, whilst fear could clearly be seen on Gaddafi’s face…and then the story came to an end with his death!
This was Gaddafi’s end, after he ruled Libya for more than 4 decades, utilizing fear and terror, exterminating his rivals, and espousing lies. He ruled Libya as if he were the state, the law, the dean of Arab rulers, the King of Kings, and the commander of the faithful. Gaddafi decorated himself with innumerable titles; however he died unadorned on the side of the road! Of course, Gaddafi’s end does not incite pity so much as it does confusion and bewilderment, and causes one to ask the same question that was repeated after the tragic end of Saddam Hussein and his family, and that question is: will these tyrants never learn their lesson?
We witnessed the end of Saddam Hussein, and the scattering of his family, and today we have witnessed Muammar Gaddafi and the Gaddafi family sharing the same fate! What is frightening is that Gaddafi is the second Arab leader to face such a humiliating end, and within a period of just 5 years. What is even stranger is that the late Libyan leader had mocked the Arab leaders, warning them that they would face an end similar to that of Saddam Hussein, however ultimately it was Gaddafi who found himself facing this end! After more than four decades of dictatorship, during which he ruled Libya through bloodshed and violence, Muammar Gaddafi faced the same ending that he dished out to all those who opposed him or disagreed with him and his regime. He died in the same manner that he ordered his men to kill the Libyan rebels throughout the Libyan uprising. Therefore the pressing question, which must always be asked, is: will these tyrants never learn their lesson?
In order to ensure that this question remains ever-present, we must make sure that the people of Libya today understand that Gaddafi is finished, and that perhaps this was one of the easier difficult tasks facing them. More important than all of this, is for the people of Libya to rebuild the country that Gaddafi destroyed over 4 decades in power. He was a man who stood in the face of the progress of the [Libyan] people and state; a man who turned his entire country into a personal fiefdom for himself and his children. Today, it is up to the people of Libya to rebuild their country and its institutions, and protect the Libyan civilians and their dignity. By doing so, Libya will have truly washed its hands of Gaddafi. However if this does not occur, God forbid, then nobody can guarantee the return of another Gaddafi!
This is the concern of the people of Libya. As for the Arabs, we must recall that we have witnessed, over the past ten years, the end [of the rule] of a number of Arab leaders. We have seen one Arab ruler’s end [hiding] in a hole, whilst another fled his country, and a third has found his end on a sickbed in hospital, whilst the last [deposed Arab leader] was killed on the side of the road. Therefore the only question that remains is: will these tyrants never learn their lesson?

Ignoring the Iranian threat
By Tony Badran
http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=321497
The alleged Iranian plot to murder the Saudi ambassador to the United States, and to target the Saudi and Israeli embassies in Washington, has left casual observers, analysts and regional experts shocked. They see this prospective Iranian campaign as an unprecedented escalation in Tehran’s war against the US and its allies. In reality, the Iranians have been building toward something like this for months. Recognizing the strategic designs behind Iran's brazenness should spur the Obama administration to reassert its leadership in the region and refocus US priorities in the Middle East.
Some of the analysis immediately following the official disclosure of the plot’s details has tended to focus primarily on the plausibility of the US charge that the plot was “conceived, sponsored and directed” from Iran. However, when read through the prism of the regional balance of power, particularly against the backdrop of the US posture of retrenchment, Iran’s power play appears less surprising.
It is worth revisiting the context of the plot. The published complaint states that that the conspiracy began “at least in or about the spring of 2011,” and according to US officials who spoke to The Daily Beast, President Barack Obama first learned of the plot in June. In other words, the operation was set in motion at a critical time in the region: The Saudis had displayed willingness to interfere militarily in order to block what they perceived as an Iranian attempt to undermine them in Bahrain. In addition, Tehran’s strategic Arab ally, the Assad regime in Syria, was being challenged by a popular uprising, which the Iranians blamed on the US and its regional allies.
By June, Iran was already making threats against US allies, namely Turkey and Saudi Arabia, over both Syria and Bahrain. These threats recently intensified and expanded to include other regional actors as well as US interests in the region.
Last week, the Iranian Fars News Agency website published a curious item relaying a threat allegedly made by Syria’s Bashar al-Assad to Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu during the latter’s visit to Damascus in early August. Aside from the expected warning of targeting Israel, Assad reportedly threatened that, in the event of a NATO attack against Syria, “Iran will attack the US warships in the Persian Gulf, and the US and European interests will be targeted simultaneously.” In a direct reference to Saudi Arabia, Assad also reportedly said that Gulf Shia would be activated as suicide attack units.
That this threat involving Iranian intervention on behalf of its ally was reproduced on an official Iranian outlet is itself revealing. It was reinforced by a simultaneous report about the meeting between Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister and the Qatari Crown Prince in which the Iranian diplomat warned Doha that foreign interference in Syria “will push the whole region into crisis.”
Tehran’s belligerent posture is directly related to the regional developments in which Iran sees a challenge to its plans for regional hegemony. In issuing these public threats to rival regional actors, the Iranians are announcing their willingness to use force to safeguard their alliance system and ensure that the regional balance of power remains in their favor and decidedly against the US. What has been the US reaction to these public threats? Ironically, the Iranian effort has been largely effective in deterring the Obama administration, especially in Syria. For example, as The New York Times reported last month, administration officials have said that they do not want to give the Iranian government “an excuse to intervene” by appearing to be “orchestrating the outcome” in Syria.
This US posture of disinclination and reluctance has not been lost on anyone in the region. It is highly possible, therefore, that the Iranians wagered that they could push the envelope further—all the way to Washington. As some analysts have noted, it is reasonable to assume that the Iranians calculated that there would not be serious repercussions to their plan in DC. Specifically, the Iranians probably believed that there would be no military response, and therefore made a calculated risk to go on the offensive, putting to use the assets and networks the Qods Force and its Hezbollah surrogate have been developing for quite a while.
By targeting Saudi Arabia on US soil, the Iranians would be dealing a double blow. They would be striking at Washington’s primary Arab ally (especially as question marks currently surround Egypt), all while highlighting US weakness as a patron state, both in terms of its inability to protect its clients, and also in what Iran believes will be an impotent retaliation.
Iran is viewing the developments in the Arab world, including their own loss of power and prestige, in the stark terms of pure power politics. Accordingly, their response is raw force and terror. In contrast, the Obama administration has yet to account for the critical regional shifts and retailor its strategic framework to fit them. Furthermore, the White House has failed to press its strategic interests and objectives—which include destroying Iran’s alliance system and neutralizing Tehran's ability to project power.
It is now time for the US to make this clear to friend and foe alike.
*Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He tweets @AcrossTheBay. This article was first published on NOWLebanon.

Islamists poised to make gains in Tunisian election
Raphael Thelen, October 22, 2011
Tunis – Tunisia will hold the first free elections of the Arab Spring this Sunday. The Islamist Nahda Party is poised to get the most votes. Campaigning on its credentials as arch enemy of deposed dictator Zeineddine Ben Ali, and combining a vision of modern Islamist democracy with social equality and freedom of speech, it is attractive to many Tunisians.
But many wonder if the party can uphold its promises. The streets were not yet completely cleared of the rubble of the revolution when Rashid Ghannouchi, the leader of Nahda, returned to Tunis. Ben Ali had violently persecuted Ghannouchi’s followers, jailing and torturing thousands. But in January, after years of forced exile, the 70-year-old scholar was allowed to return. There weren’t Khomeini-esque masses waiting for him at the airport, but his reappearance dominated the news.
For many liberal, secular Tunisians the specter of Islamism had reappeared in Tunisia. Being well aware of this reputation, Ghannouchi’s first message was that he is committed to human rights and democracy.  “Nahda has its inspiration from Islam,” said Ali Bader Lanouar, who works for a computer game company and recently decided to vote for Nahda this Sunday. “But even in the party program, Islam is hardly visible.” The 33-year old father sees no contradiction between Islam and democracy. “Nahda is working on the social side, caring for the poor. And they have nothing to do with the old regime. That is why I will vote for them.” While Bader Lanouar is a moderate Muslim, Tunisia’s Islamic identity is important to him. “Tunisia has its own culture and its own tradition. So why are we continuously copying the Western system as if we were monkeys?”
Aref Maalej, representative of Nahda in the southern city of Sfax, agrees. “Ben Ali tried to Occidentalize Tunisia. He tried to erase our Eastern roots. We want to bring back some of this through education, family laws and social means.” Maalej, who is a professor of mechanical engineering and who has travelled extensively in the West, sees liberal Muslim countries like Malaysia and Turkey as a role model for Tunisia. But people like Lanouar and Maalej are just one reflection of Islamism in Tunisia. It is the most extreme group—the Safists—that has been making its voice heard in the weeks before the elections. One incident especially worries many Tunisians.
Recently, a group of Salafists attacked the offices of Nessma TV—a private channel that aired the movie Persepolis, which is critical of the Islamic rule in Iran—and tried to set the building on fire. The Salafists did not belong to Nahda, but to many liberal Tunisians it was proof enough of the real nature of the Islamist current—especially as Nahda’s leader, Ghannouchi, made ambiguous statements regarding the incident: He said that his party renounces all forms of violence but also claimed that Nessma TV got what it deserved.
The incident prompted much speculation among Tunisians of all backgrounds. Most agree that showing the movie was provocative. But thousands of liberal Tunisians organized rallies in different cities in support of free expression.
Ghannouchi poured more oil onto the fire. Breaking the interview ban before the elections, he said to a French news outlet that he would send his followers onto the streets if there were “irregularities” during the election. To many that sounded like a threat to sabotage the elections if he did not like the results.
Bader Lanour thinks that opponents intentionally misconstrue Ghannouchi’s messages to harm his campaign. “Most of the French-speaking media portrays Muslims as terrorists, and so Nahda is a terrorist party. They just twist Ghannouchi’s words as they like it.”
In the heated atmosphere of the pre-election days, that might be true. But nevertheless, many Tunisians are scared that Ghannouchi’s talk of democracy, freedom of speech and women’s rights will turn out to be exactly that: just talk.

A mistake to be set right
Hazem al-Amin, October 21, 2011
A businesswoman and opposition supporter from Damascus said that she will not leave Syria despite feeling besieged in her life and at work. She will not leave Syria because great missions await her in the revolution. She is an opposition supporter, albeit not an activist. She took part in a couple of protests but went back to her home and work afterward.
This lady justified her decision to stay by invoking simple and obvious pretexts, which—at the same time—highlights our mysterious insistence (i.e. the Lebanese people) on leaving our country without hesitating as soon as we get the chance to. The lady said she wanted to live in no other city than Damascus and that her only daughter’s world revolves around Damascus, its schools, its clubs and its alleys. She asserted that she cannot live away from her family, who resembles and does not resemble her at the same time, much like she cannot live away from their tyranny and love.
We hear of dozens of Syrians who feel the same and so astounded were we with the emergence of a new Syrian patriotism that we portrayed this case as a resilience decision. However, it runs far deeper than that. Resilience is actually a current and temporary boost of strength that allows us to confront a passing stance or situation, whereas the situation in Syria is based on an accumulating fatalist and psychological essence. Simply put, it is “the only country where we can live.”
Syria is a country which we—the Lebanese people—do not know; rather, many Syrians do not know Syria. In fact, the past 40 years witnessed a generalized process of willful ignorance about this country, not to mention the sick relation we have with the Syrian regime in our capacity as its nearest neighbors. Therefore, we reacted to the image that the regime wanted us to have of its country. We did so based on the conflict pitting us against this regime and from the standpoint of this regime’s affiliates, and the picture was pretty bleak in both cases.
A new Syrian patriotism is now emerging and glosses over patriotism in neighboring states in more ways than one. It may be correct to assert that this emerging patriotism is linked to the values, scenes and ambitions spread by the revolution among the Syrian people, but we still envy the Syrians for that as our own patriotism has crumbled and withered. Likewise, we envied the Damascus Spring back when Lebanon experienced a moment of patriotism on March 14, 2005 only to see it dispelled at the closest possible opportunity.
This is not a contest between patriotisms, and we should avoid self-flagellation. Yet our fascination with the emergence of Syrian patriotism is based on reasons we should comment on. First and foremost, it is necessary to acknowledge that the Baath regime succeeded in having us ignore the Syrian people’s resistance against its regime before the official start of the uprising in the country. We failed to take notice of Omar Amirlay’s movie Toufan fi Bilad al-Baath (Deluge in the Baath Country), Osama Mohammad’s Noujoum An-Nahar (Daytime Stars) before that and other art and culture works as benchmarks giving us an insight into Syrian courage and the educated force underlying it. Amirlay and Mohammad presented their movies while in Damascus. A simple comparison with the situation in Lebanon reveals that our art and culture production is nowhere near such courage in dealing with the authorities, knowing that the Lebanese authorities are less violent than the Baath power.
I saw Amirlay’s Deluge in the Baath Country before the start of the uprising in Syria, and I saw it again afterward. The first time, I admired Amirlay as a director and his warm voice, which accompanied the spectator as a commentator, made me feel a mysterious sincere affection for him. When I saw the movie for the second time, after the uprising, I was astounded by the courage of that man, who decided to take his camera to a Syrian village on the Tigris River and film the story of its “Baathization.
The movie left two different impressions, before the revolution and after it.
There is probably a mistake that should be set right.
**This article is a translation of the original, which appeared on the NOW Arabic site on Friday, October 21, 2011.

What Gaddafi’s Death Teaches the Middle East…And Should Teach the West
Barry Rubin , PajamasMedia, October 21, 2011
(…) There are three lessons for the region:
1. To get rid of a dictator, you need either Western intervention or the support of the armed forces. - Consider this simple list:
Dictatorships overthrown with Western forces taking the lead: Iraq, Libya
Dictatorships overthrown with the backing of the army: Egypt, Tunisia
Failed revolutions when these two factors are lacking: Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Yemen.
That shows that it is not popular revolt that changes things in the region.
Dictators must fight or die and concessions don’t help.
The Western view is that revolutions are prevented by moderation and compromise, steps that please the masses and thus discourage them from revolting. This is so deeply ingrained that Western observers simply cannot conceive that approach as anything but a natural law. In contrast, in the Middle East, the political philosophy has been based on the idea that force and intimidation prevail.
With one notable exception, where brilliant maneuvering and concessions (albeit often illusory ones) worked — Morocco — the Middle East has shown that its approach works locally. Even in Turkey, where democratic norms are observed, once in power the Islamist regime has gained ground through toughness and not through concessions. The prisons are full of its opponents.
The event in Eastern Europe that most impressed Arab governments was the assassination in Romania of dictator Nicolae Ceauşescu and his wife, Elena. They knew that this could happen to them. When combined with the lesson from the USSR — how Mikhail Gorbachev’s engagement in reforms brought him down — these events played a central role in destroying the 1990s era of toying with possible moderation. The “old-time religion” of toughness and repression was reaffirmed.
Nowhere has this proven to be truer than in Syria. Despite Western fantasies of moderation and reform from dictator Bashar al-Assad, there has never been the slightest chance of this happening. The whole Obama foreign policy toward Syria was demonstrably foolish.
2. The events of the last year have reinforced this worldview — repress or die. Have no illusions. - An interesting case study of how this works is offered by Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi in a superb short article, “Assessing Bahrain.” The strength of al-Tamimi’s analysis is that he points out both the real threat (Iranian-backed, radical Islamist Shia opposition) and the tragedy (the regime’s failure to deal with a more moderate Shia faction that wants a constitutional monarchy and isn’t Islamist).
But would it have been possible to work with the latter without ending up having the hardliners triumph? Impossible to say for sure, of course, but the hardline ruling faction in the monarchy wasn’t interested in finding out, and the Saudis certainly didn’t want to take any chances. Hence, they turned to pure repression and are still in power.
3. (Ironically) You can’t trust the West, so be tough and defend yourself - Remember a peculiar fact: even though Gaddafi was generally a horribly repressive anti-American dictator, in his final years he tried making a deal with the Americans.
Gaddafi was frightened by the U.S. attack on Iraq in 2003 and didn’t want to be next on the list. So he cooperated, gave up his nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction programs, and reduced his foreign subversive efforts.
That did not save him from being overthrown by the United States, just as it did not save a genuine American ally, President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. On this point, I’m not advocating anything about what the United States should have done in Libya but just observing how it will be received in the region.
**Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal.
The above article was published in pajamasmedia.com on October 20th, 2011 (4:09 p.m.).

New Video Shows Gadhafi Begging for Mercy after Capture
Naharnet /A video that went viral on Friday on social networking websites showed a bloodied Moammar Gadhafi begging the new regime fighters for mercy after his capture.
Gadhafi was later declared dead by the National Transitional Council, Libya’s new rulers.
Another video on Thursday showed the former dictator, his face half-covered in blood, being dragged towards a vehicle by a crowd, delirious with excitement.
Those at the front, pushed and shook him, pulled him by the hair, hit him until he disappeared from the screens amid a crackle of gunfire.
Disquiet grew on Friday over how Gadhafi met his end after being taken alive.
In Geneva, the U.N. human rights chief called for an investigation into the way the ousted Libyan leader was killed, saying that “the two videos ... taken together are very disturbing."
"On the issue of Gadhafi’s death yesterday, the circumstances are still unclear," Navi Pillay's spokesman Rupert Colville said.
"There are four or five different versions of how he died.
"There should be some kind of investigation given what we saw yesterday."
A senior National Transitional Council official said: "No instructions were given to kill Gadhafi, and we do not believe our revolutionaries intentionally killed him."
But he acknowledged: "There have been rumors flying around since the killing of Gadhafi, after images were released, claiming that our revolutionaries slaughtered him."
He added: "I deny that we gave orders to kill Gadhafi."
Gadhafi was caught trying to flee Sirte, his hometown which for weeks withstood the NTC siege, in a convoy of vehicles which had been targeted by NATO warplanes at around 8:30 am (0630 GMT), sources said.
The alliance confirmed on Friday that its aircraft had hit 11 armed vehicles in or around Sirte 24 hours earlier.
Agence France Presse journalists some 50 kilometers from Sirte had heard early Thursday morning a series of huge blasts coming from the city, far louder than the normal daily explosions.
French Defense Minister Gerard Longuet said French planes had "stopped" the convoy. Libyan fighters had then attacked it, destroying vehicles from which "Colonel Gadhafi had come out."Thirty minutes later, immense columns of smoke could be seen rising over west Sirte and exchanges of gunfire were heard.
Mohammed Leith, a commander from Misrata, based in the west of Sirte, said the deposed dictator died from wounds inflicted while he was being seized.
"Gadhafi was found in a jeep on which the rebels had opened fire. He came out of it and tried to flee. He took refuge in a drain. The rebels opened fire again and he emerged carrying a Kalashnikov in one hand and a pistol in the other," Leith said.
"He look left and right, shouted 'what's going on'. The rebels opened fire again, wounding him in the shoulder and the leg, and he then died."
NTC executive chief Mahmoud Jibril said the ex-dictator had been killed by a bullet in the head.
"When he was found, he was in good health and was carrying a weapon" but "when the vehicle drove off, he was caught in an exchange of fire between pro-Gadhafi fighters and revolutionaries, and was killed by a bullet in the head," he said, adding that Gadhafi remained alive until he arrived at the hospital in Misrata.
Late in the afternoon, witnesses saw Gadhafi’s body in an ambulance in a market on the outskirts of Misrata.
An AFP photographer later saw the body in a house in the town. He photographed the corpse whose chest was bare and stomach covered in blood. The impact of a bullet was visible on Gadhafi’s forehead.
British Foreign Minister William Hague said Gadhafi appeared to have been killed. "We would have liked him to face justice for his crimes in a court, in an international or Libyan court, and we don't approve of extrajudicial killing," he said, adding: "But we are not going to mourn him."
The U.N. human rights spokesman said: "The thousands of victims who suffered loss of lives, disappearances, torture and other serious human rights violations since the conflict occurred in February 2011 as well of those who suffered human rights violations throughout Gadhafi’s long rule have the right to know the truth.
"And they have the right to see the culture of impunity brought to an end and to receive reparations," he added.
Source Agence France PresseNaharnet

Kadhafi's burial not decided: minister
AFP – Fri, 21 Oct, 2011
No decision has been taken on when or where the body of Moamer Kadhafi will be buried, Libya's information minister said on Friday, amid lingering question marks over how the ousted despot met his end.
"No decision has been taken on the subject of Kadhafi's burial," nor on whether his body would remain in Misrata where it was transported after he was fatally wounded after being captured in Sirte, Mahmud Shamam told AFP.
NTC leaders have been cagey about plans for his burial, not wishing to see his grave become a rallying point for residual loyalists.
At a news conference late on Thursday, hours after Kadhafi's death was announced, the National Transitional Council (NTC) indicated that the former Libyan leader would be buried at an unknown location after an autopsy. Kadhafi was captured trying to flee Sirte, his hometown, as NTC fighters raced through to mop up the last pockets of loyalist resistance, and subsequently died of his wounds in circumstances that remain hazy. NTC leaders claim he was shot in the head when he was caught "in crossfire" between his supporters and new regime fighters soon after his capture at a sewage culvert where he had taken refuge. However, there is wide speculation he was summarily executed by his captors and UN human rights chief Navi Pillay called on Friday for an investigation, while in London Foreign Secretary William Hague made it clear Britain does not approve of "extradjudicial killing."
Kadhafi's body was laid out overnight in a private residence in Misrata -- Libya's third-largest city, which his forces devastated in a protracted siege that proved to be one of the turning points of the eight-month uprising.

Gadhafi was looks-conscious until the end
By Phoebe Connelly
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/envoy/gadhafi-looks-conscious-until-end-155524820.html
Thursday brought to an abrupt end the months-long hunt for Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi. But as authorities seek to piece together a timeline of his final moments, some striking reminders of his extravagant lifestyle have emerged.
The Washington Post reports Friday that when investigators performed DNA testing on Gadhafi's body, they learned that the vainglorious strongman was wearing a wig. Interim Prime Minster Mahmoud Jibril told the Post that an autopsy team took samples of Gadhafi's blood, saliva and hair--and soon discovered that the hair did not actually belong to the former dictator. Gadhafi's body is now at a mosque outside of Sirte.
The former dictator was known for his vanity--in March, a Brazilian plastic surgeon came forward with an account of a four hour cosmetic procedure he'd performed on Gadhafi in 1995. "He told me that he had been in power for 25 years at that time, and that he did not want the young people of his nation to see him as an old man," Dr. Liacyr Ribeiro told the AP. "I recommended a facelift, but he refused." Gadhafi received hair plugs and had fat from his belly injected into his face to counteract the appearance of aging. The operation occurred in the middle of the night in Gadhafi's compound in Tripoli. He insisted on local anesthesia, so he could remain awake during the procedure; midway through the surgery, he paused to snack on a hamburger. Gadhafi's hair, real or fake, was a signature. In a 2009 piece anointing the dictator a style icon, Vanity Fair said that Gadhafi's tonsorial look betrayed the influence of wild-maned rock impresario Phil Spector. The magazine put together a slide show of the dictator's fashions--a "homage to a sartorial genius of our time."