LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 24/2011
Bible Quotation for today/The Parable of the Lost Sheep
Matthew 18/10-14: " See that you don't despise any of these little ones. Their
angels in heaven, I tell you, are always in the presence of my Father in heaven.
What do you think a man does who has one hundred sheep and one of them gets
lost? He will leave the other ninety-nine grazing on the hillside and go and
look for the lost sheep. When he finds it, I tell you, he feels far happier over
this one sheep than over the ninety-nine that did not get lost. In just the same
way your[ Father in heaven does not want any of these little ones to be lost.
Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from
miscellaneous sources
For
Kataeb, Lebanon's future is decentralization/By: Matt Nash/November 22/11
Lebanon's seniors nostalgic for first Independence Day/ By Brooke
Anderson/November 23/11
Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood Versus Army: Disastrous Elections or Bloody Civil
War?/By Barry Rubin/November 23/11
Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for November
23/11
Medvedev takes aim at US missile
shield, targeting also Israel's missile defenses
Huge blast rocks Hezbollah stronghold in south Lebanon
STL head says trials
likely to last 3 years
Hariri tribunal: No immediate trials in absentia
Hezbollah claims
'victory' in intelligence war with CIA
Arab League breaks
habit, turns on Syria
Yemen's Saleh signs
deal to give up power
Lebanon to ask
ambassador for clarification on CIA spy network: sources
U.S. urges expats in Syria to leave on last remaining flights
U.N. deputy head arrives in Lebanon
Monastery janitor admits raping, killing Lebanese woman
Army: Siddiqin Blast Caused by Mine or Cluster Bomb
UN rights panel condemns Syria, Lebanon abstains
Lebanese woman found raped, murdered
Report: Monastery Janitor Confesses to Killing 28-Year-Old Woman
Lebanese dream of greater independence
Hezbollah, Amal stand by Iran, Syria against
U.S., Israeli threats
Sleiman reiterates commitment to tribunal
Geagea: Lebanon Facing Struggle between Rule of State and that of Statelet
Lebanese Army under fire in Bekaa
Report:
Hezbollah considering military coup if Assad falls
Terrorized by crime,
Baalbek residents buy arms
Mustaqbal MPs: Army Intelligence, Hizbullah Tried to Nab Syrian from Arsal
Aoun: I Won't Defend Govt. against Mustaqbal Bid to Oust It
Mikati to resign if Cabinet votes down funding
for Special Tribunal
Lebanon lose to
Saudi in Asian handball championship
U.S. Puts Lebanon-based Saudi Militant on Terror List
Tantawi:
Presidential elections next June, Muslim Brothers in government
Egypt Military Ruler Suggests Referendum on Immediate Power Transfer
Canada's Foreign Minister Mr. Baird Concludes Successful Visit to the Gulf
Region
Analysis: Syria's Assad seen ignoring Gaddafis' fate
Syrian
regime's thugs kidnap woman for protesting
Canada laments cracks in Iran, Syria sanctions
Syria eyes Iraq, Lebanon economic lifelines
Turkish prime minister tells Syria's Assad to step down
Iraq: US hands over detainees save Hezbollah agent
Bahrain opposition says repression 'systematic'
- 12 hours ago
Iran sanctions buoy oil prices despite
demand worry
- 12 hours ago
International court: Libya can try Gadhafi's son
Leftist Ben Jaafar Elected Head of Tunisia Constituent Assembly
Hatred leads to self destruction
Elias Bejjani/23.11.11/ I can see it coming very soon when Egypt will go back to
Abdel Nasser's horrible era in regards to hostility towards Israel. The Egyptian
Military council is worst than any dictator in the region. It is playing the
people in the country against each other on sectarian and hatred bases and
instigating against the Christian Coptics to get some publicity among the
Islamic fanatics. They initially used the Islamists and now they are facing them
because these Islamists believe it is time to take over the country. initially
they used these stone age thugs to attack the churches and the Coptics. The army
officers of the military council are so corrupted, full of hatred and will play,
use and invest in the hatred education against Israel so they can keep on
holding to power. It is very sad that the hoped Arabic spring is turning
more and more to an Islamist means of control over the Arab countries from
Tunisia to Egypt, Libya etc. In conclusion unless the Arab countries change
their education curriculums and clean them from hatred and rejection of others
they will keep dragging the Arab countries from one disaster to another and from
one hole to another. Blind leaders and those who follow them all fall into their
own traps and holes.
Medvedev takes aim at US missile
shield, targeting also Israel's missile defenses
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report /November 23,/2011? After deploying three
warships in Syrian waters, Moscow continues to beat war drums against the United
States followed closely by Tehran. Wednesday, Nov. 23, Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev told state television: "I have ordered the armed forces to develop
measures to ensure if necessary that we can destroy the command and control
systems" of the planned US missile-defense system in Europe. These measures are
appropriate, effective and low-cost."
Iranian Supreme Leader's top advisor for military affairs Major General Yahya
Rahim Safavi came next. He said: "The Iranian Revolutionary Guards controls the
identity and destination of every US warship which intends to pass through the
Strait of Hormuz."
debkafile's military sources report that the US missile shield's command and
control systems which the Russian president spoke of destroying are linked
directly to Israel's missile defense network against Iranian, Syria and
Hizballah missiles and the X-Band radar station located in the southern Israeli
Negev.
Medvedev's threat to American "command and control systems" was therefore
comprehensive. It referred not just to the US anti-missile shield facilities
planned for Europe, but also to preparing measures for use ("if necessary") - in
the course of a possible American or Israeli attack on Iran or Syria - for
striking the US missile defense systems in Europe before they can intercept
Iranian missiles.
Knocking out the European shield would leave Israel completely exposed to
Iranian missile attack.
In a very few terse words, the Russian president has made it clear that the
Kremlin will not allow Iran and its Middle East allies be prevented from missile
retaliation in the event of war. That threat also explains why at least two of
the three Russian naval vessels moved into Syrian territorial waters last week
were equipped for surveillance and electronic warfare, exactly what is needed
for a Russian operation to destroy US missile shield command and control centers
near the Syrian border, such as the one stationed in Turkey.
In another part of his announcement, President Medvedev also threatened to opt
out of the new START arms control deal with the United States and halt other
arms control talks if the US proceeds with the missile shield without meeting
Russia's demand for it to be managed jointly, which NATO has rejected.
The Iranian General Savavi's assertion of the IRGC's exclusive control of the
Strait of Hormuz was in direct response to the crossing of two US carriers, the
USS Stennis and USS Bush, through the strait to take up position opposite the
Iranian coast. This was reported exclusively by debkafile Monday, Nov.
Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood Versus Army: Disastrous Elections or
Bloody Civil War?
By Barry Rubin
Only days before parliamentary elections, Egypt is in a huge crisis whose
outcome will determine the future of almost 80 million people and perhaps the
Arabic-speaking world's fate for decades to come.
Will the army go ahead with elections that will be won by the Muslim Brotherhood
and other radical Salafist groups, thus producing an Islamist regime or
Will it cancel elections, declare martial law in some form and set off a
passionate civil conflict?
Or will it find some compromise that quiets the disorder but doesn't solve the
problems (see below for the proposed new deal).
That’s quite a difficult choice and not one the army prefers. Understandably,
the military has a third alternative: set up some compromise rules for the new
Egyptian state that leave it feeling secure even if this plan sacrifices a lot
of other factors.
The nominal cause of this upheaval are the demonstrations in Tahrir square that
have produced a bloodier tool than any single event in the entire Egyptian
revolutionary process, with more than 30 people dead. But the real background is
this:
Despite the persistent mocking of Western officials, media, and “experts” about
the Muslim Brotherhood’s weakness and moderation, it has become increasingly
apparent that a very radical Muslim Brotherhood will take power and
fundamentally transform Egypt into something far worse than that which existed
during the six-decades-long Nasser-Sadat-Mubarak regime.
The army’s compromise went along the following lines:
A parliament would be elected on November 28. In April 2012 it would choose a
100-member assembly to write a new constitution, a process that would take one
year. After the constitution was written by April 2013 it would be ratified.
Only then, in the second half of 2013, would a president be elected and the
military junta stand aside and yield executive authority.
So much for the delaying aspects of the plan; there were also provisions for
protecting the military’s interests. It would retain control of its own budget,
which would remain secret; moreover the junta could veto the constitution
entirely or in part. And finally, though vaguely, it wanted some provisions to
protect rights including those of the Christian minority. The last item
presumably was out of concern with the country’s international reputation.
The junta’s position is a combination of greed and its self-image as guardian of
Egypt’s national interest. Officers enrich themselves by large-scale business
enterprises.
At the same time, they are no doubt aware of the likelihood that an Islamist
regime would eventually purge the army and arrest officers—as is happening in
Turkey, the explicit model for the Muslim Brotherhood’s strategy—and replace
them with its ideological followers. They also might take into account that the
Brotherhood is likely to get Egypt into a losing war with Israel and take steps
that would cost the military hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. aid.
Now this clash in itself has added still another dimension. It is said that if
you wound an elephant you have to kill it as otherwise the enraged leviathan
will trample you. The Brotherhood now sees the military as an enemy and if it
comes to power would have all the more incentive to crush that rival.
There are no good options. As the two sides maneuver here are the precedents
that must affect their thinking:
Algeria: In 1991, the Islamists won the first round of elections and were headed
for a landslide victory. The army declared a state of emergency and cancelled
the elections. A long and bloody civil war ensued in which to say that only
30,000 people were killed is an understatement. In the end, the military won.
Turkey: For almost a decade the army stood aside and let the Islamists win
repeated elections and govern as they wished. The generals considered a coup
attempt but never tried one as they knew there would be no external support and
it might set off a civil war. In the end, the Islamists accused them of planning
a coup anyway, broke the power of the military, and arrested dozens of current
and former high-ranking officers.
Tunisia: The army stood aside and let the Islamists win an election. They will
now govern in a coalition with the left. It is unclear what will happen and what
the military thinks about the situation.
As you can see, the alternatives are unattractive and we don’t know what will
happen. The West is siding with the civilians: democratic rule, elections, a
military regime is bad. See for example the somewhat bizarre Washington Post
editorial that attacks the Obama Administration for being too soft on the
generals! It demands that Obama threaten to cut off military aid unless the
junta gives in. This is a misreading of the White House stance that is critical
of the junta but doesn’t want to get directly involved.
That makes sense in normal conditions but might be disastrous on a strategic
level. We’ve been through this kind of thing before in which the supposed good
becomes the worse of two evils.
The Bush Administration supported Hamas participating in the Palestinian
election out of some sense of misguided fairness plus depending on fantasy-laden
Fatah polls predicting that Hamas would lose. The Bush and Obama administrations
stood by and cheered the “moderate Islamists” in Turkey as they moved step by
step to install and strengthen an anti-American regime there.
In contrast, regarding Algeria the presidents at the time took a realpolitik
view, arguably maintaining their distance and neutrality while in practice
supporting the military’s victory. France did the dirty work, something that
doesn’t apply to these contemporary situations.
The attitude of the moderate Egyptian parties is interesting. On one hand, they
are totally against the military retaining power or even a lot of power; on the
other hand, they are starting to get real scared about what it would be like to
live in an Egypt governed by the Muslim Brotherhood and even more violent
Islamists. They are pulling back a bit from taking sides in this struggle.
After meeting with the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups (but not the
liberals who were left out, an indication of how insignificant they are becoming
politically!), the junta has a new proposal: The new constitution is set to be
finished by June 2012 (not April 2013) and the presidential election will be
held no later than June 2012 (instead of June 2013). The parliamentary elections
will happen as scheduled. If this is so and it is implemented, it means that the
Islamists have forced the military to back down completely, a victory that will
add to their confidence that they will get everything they want. Arguably, Egypt
is even worse off now than it was a weak ago. Perhaps, though, there are other
aspects to the eal we haven't heard about yet.
Blast rocks Hezbollah stronghold in south Lebanon
November 23, 2011/ By Mohammed Zaatari The Daily Star
SIDDIQIN, Lebanon: An explosion shook a Hezbollah stronghold near Siddiqin in
the Tyre region of south Lebanon overnight, a security source told The Daily
Star Wednesday.
The source said the cause of the blast, which was heard shortly before midnight,
could not be determined due to the heavy security blanket by Hezbollah. Lebanese
security forces were unable to access the scene of the explosion after the
resistance group set up a security perimeter around the blast site, which is
located in a valley called Wadi Al-Jabal al-Kabir between Siddiqin and Deir
Ames, the source added. Local media said the explosion likely took place at a
Hezbollah arms cache."There are no comments so far," Hezbollah’s office said
when contacted by The Daily Star. As four Israeli warplanes flew over Siddiqin
at around 10.00 a.m., patrols by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon
were active in the area, where village life has returned to normal. A UNIFIL
helicopter could also be seen flying over the village. A spokesman for the U.N.
peacekeeping force said UNIFIL had heard about the explosion on the news. "We
have no information at the moment. We are checking this report," Andrea Tenenti
told The Daily Star by telephone.
VOL: Hezbollah weapons’ stockpile
explodes in Tyre
November 23, 2011/The Voice of Lebanon (100.5) radio reported on Wednesday that
a weapons’ stockpile belonging to Hezbollah exploded at midnight in the Tyre
town of As-Siddiqin. The report also said that security forces tried to reach
the place of the explosion, but Hezbollah members had cordoned the site,
preventing anyone from getting in. The radio station also reported that As-Siddiqin
is located in an area controlled by the United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon
(UNIFIL).-NOW Lebanon
Lebanese dream of greater
independence
November 22, 2011/By Dana Khraiche/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: As Lebanon commemorated 68 years of independence Tuesday, Lebanese in
Beirut said they felt disheartened by the country’s lack of decision-making
power. “Independence in Lebanon is the biggest joke,” Saadi Hakim, 46, said,
adding that he had returned to Lebanon in the 1990s and is now ready to leave
again. Sitting in one of Hamra’s many coffee shops, Hakim said Lebanon has never
truly enjoyed independence. Many share Hakim’s cynicism, blaming the lack of
independence on rival politicians whose affiliations, they say, do not serve the
interest of the country. “I don’t feel that I live in an independent country and
the blame lies with the political class,” Elie, 26, who hails from the north
eastern village of Hadsheet, said.
Nahla, an employee at a travel office in Beirut’s southern suburbs, said the
political factions’ strong foreign ties make it difficult to call Lebanon a
“truly independent country.” Political rivalry in Lebanon has long been seen as
a source of instability, with the March 8 and March 14 coalitions accusing each
other of obstructing the work of the government. Political rifts forced the
collapse of the Cabinet in January, and political debate has intensified since,
as rising tension in neighboring Syria threatens to spill over into the country.
“On a day like today, we liberated the country from the French, we got our
freedom. But today, we can’t even form a Cabinet by ourselves,” Ahmad Ramadan,
the owner of a pet shop in Beirut’s suburbs of Ouzai, said. When asked what
Independence Day meant to them, many Lebanese chuckled, and scoffed at the
suggestion that it was a day that held any resonance.
On the busy intersection of Dikwaneh in the Qada of Metn, Roger Fadel, 30, said
there are still occupied Lebanese territories, and shrugged off the idea of
independence. “We have stages of independence. First in 1943, then in 2000 when
Israeli soldiers withdrew from south Lebanon, and another when Syrian soldiers
withdrew from the country, and we still have occupied territories in Shebaa
Farms and Kfasrhouba Hills,” he said. Lebanon has long been calling for the
withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from the southern territories of Shebaa Farms and
Kfarshouba along with the northern village of Ghajar. Marcel, a sandwich shop
owner in Antelias, Metn, agreed with Fadel. “Independence means having complete
freedom and sovereignty. We do not have any of that.”
Marcel switched to a local radio station playing the national anthem, sighed and
shook his head in disappointment. “Foreign hands in our country prevent us from
having independence.” Others think that Independence Day should have had a
different flavor, and blame the government for the lack of awareness for such a
national day. Ahmad Khattab, from al-Tariq al-Jadideh in greater Beirut, said
local television stations should be airing documentaries about the 1943
independence. “There is no awareness. They should have viewed documentaries
about the day or held various events in celebrations. So we could actually feel
it,” Khattab said, concurring with others that Lebanon does not enjoy
independence because the decision-making power is not in the hands of Lebanese.
In Verdun, a man in his 70s voiced discontent over the situation in the country,
and said Lebanon lacks economic and political independence. “It should include
economic, social and political independence and we have none of that,” the man,
who preferred to stay anonymous, said. “Independence is about living in a
dignified way, it’s about freedom,” he added, before being interrupted by a
newspaper salesperson asking everyone to leave his post and not ask silly
questions.
Lebanon's seniors nostalgic for
first Independence Day
November 22, 2011/By Brooke Anderson/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The last time Arife Alamy can remember her country truly united was the
day Lebanon achieved independence from France, on Nov. 22, 1943. “It was
beautiful. It was the best independence day,” recalls the 75-year-old, who was a
young girl at the time. “Fouad Chehab was the best president. There was peace,
prosperity and stability.” The celebrations every year since have never been
able to top that day, she says. Living in a country that endured 15 years of
civil war and to this day is something of a proxy for competing powers to wage
their own disputes, many Lebanese are conflicted over the meaning of
Independence Day, or if it is indeed something to celebrate. “We all lived
together and loved each other... Now we’re all controlled by different
countries.” In 1920, five years after the fall of the Ottoman Empire, the League
of Nations, the precursor to the United Nations, gave France the mandate to
govern Lebanon, as had been agreed between Britain and France during World War
I. Twenty-one years later, in 1941, France announced that Lebanon would become
independent, but under the authority of the Free French government. The Lebanese
held free elections two years later, and on Nov. 8, 1943, the new government
abolished the mandate. After initial resistance, the French finally accepted
Lebanon’s independence.
Some of those who were old enough to remember Lebanon’s original Independence
Day appear to be nostalgic for a time when they believed that – after centuries
of Ottoman and then decades of French rule – the country would at last stand on
its own. Instead, this optimism would be short-lived.
“We demonstrated for days, and when we got our independence we celebrated for
days,” says Bader Takkoush, 83, who was 15 when Lebanon won its independence. He
protested against the French imprisonment of Lebanese government officials
following the unilateral declaration of independence, but holds no resentment
toward the French, instead blaming his own compatriots for the divisions that
followed. He remembers with nostalgia the time when his compatriots came
together to fight for a common cause.
“We all lived together and loved each other,” Takkoush, who know works at a
flower shop in Hamra, says. “Now we’re all controlled by different countries.”
Takkoush says when he was young, politicians were good statesmen. Today, “under
the sectarian system, especially after the outbreak of the civil war, everything
is wasta,” he says. “There’s no system to represent the Lebanese, just the
different communities.” Jafar Shahour, 85, similarly laments a lack of pride in
independence in present-day Lebanon. In the first few years, “There were
parades, bigger than now. And all the shops were closed. It’s not like today,
everyone’s just thinking about work,” the shoe-shiner said, looking around at
the stores open for business on the national holiday in the Hamra area of
Beirut. “Today, everything is expensive, and people have to think about work all
the time.”Still, Takkoush said he’s still glad that Lebanon is independent, even
if it’s not in the way he would have hoped.
“At least we have our own country. That’s good,” he said. “There’s some unity,
but not much.”
Report: Hezbollah considering
military coup if Assad falls
Sources tell al-Arabia network Shiite group planning to 'seize parts of Beirut'
should Assad's regime fall for fear of foreign intervention in Lebanon
Roee Nahmias Published: 11.22.11, 14:34 / Israel News Report:
Hezbollah considering military coup if Assad falls
Sources tell al-Arabia network Shiite group planning to 'seize parts of Beirut'
should Assad's regime fall for fear of foreign intervention in Lebanon control
of Beirut and effectively carrying out a military coup in Lebanon should the
current Syrian regime fall, the al-Arabia network reported Tuesday. According to
the report, Hezbollah members have expressed concerns over the escalation of the
civil uprising in Syria, which could lead to the fall of Bashar Assad's regime.
The Syrian president is an ally of the Lebanese Shiite group.Sources close to
Hezbollah noted that it was due to those concerns that the Hezbollah leadership
was examining various scenarios - including a "broad maneuver on the ground,"
similar to the takeover of Beirut in May 2008. However, the current plans
apparently include a much more extensive maneuver which may expand to a military
coup. "As soon as Hezbollah will sense that the collapse of Assad's regime is
imminent, armed cells will quickly begin operating to seize control of Beirut's
eastern and western parts," one of the sources told al-Arabia. "This operation,
which will be coordinated with Hezbollah's allies, including Michel Aoun's Free
Patriotic Movement, will be carried out under the banner of 'protecting the
resistance and its weapons inside Lebanon,'" he said. According to the source,
Hezbollah will explain that the takeover "as an act that is aimed at countering
Lebanese forces plotting to suppress the resistance in cooperation with foreign
elements - headed by Israel – and take advantage of (Assad's downfall) to
annihilate Hezbollah." About a week and a half ago Hezbollah Secretary-General
Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel and the US that a war against Iran and Syria
would lead to an all-out regional conflict. "They should understand that a war
on Iran and Syria will not remain in Iran and Syrian territory, but it will
engulf the whole region and there is no escaping this reality,” Nasrallah said
during a televised speech honoring "Martyrs' Day."
Lebanese woman found raped,
murdered
November 22, 2011 03:06 PM The Daily Star /BEIRUT: The body of a 28-year-old
Lebanese woman who was raped before she was killed was found Tuesday in the
woods of Sahel Alma near Jounieh, north of Beirut, a security source said. The
source said the woman was found covered in blood, naked from the waist down. A
Syrian national working as a janitor at a monastery some 600 meters away from
where the body was found has been arrested on suspicion of carrying out the
murder.
Lebanese Army under fire in Bekaa
November 22, 2011/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: A Lebanese Army patrol came under fire
in the Bekaa town of Arsal overnight as it chased several wanted men, a military
communiqué said Tuesday. The report issued by the army headquarters said a
military patrol “came under fire and attack by a large number of people who
surrounded the patrol Monday evening.”The statement said two army vehicles were
severely damaged. It said army troops, already deployed in Arsal, were called in
to disperse the crowd. The hunt for the wanted men, who are wanted on various
crimes and fled to an unknown destination, continued Tuesday, the communiqué
added.
For Kataeb, Lebanon's future is
decentralization
Matt Nash, November 22, 2011 /Now Lebanon
Kataeb supporters wave flags during a recent rally. The party, smaller today
than when it was founded, is banking on a new national vision to try winning
broad, national appeal. (AFP Photo/Joseph Barrak)
In death, Pierre Gemayel helped bring his family together. Shot and killed at a
busy intersection in broad daylight five years ago this week, Gemayel was a
driving force behind re-uniting the Kataeb Party, which his grandfather and
namesake founded in 1936, and was often at odds with both his younger brother,
Sami, and cousin, Nadim.
One of only two political parties when Lebanon gained independence in 1943, the
Kataeb today is the third most popular of the country’s leading Christian
parties but on the cusp of revealing a plan for reorganizing the Lebanese state
that it hopes will rally the nation behind it. The party’s plan is all but
complete, Political Bureau member Albert Constanian told NOW Lebanon, but will
certainly call for administrative decentralization—giving more authority to
regional and municipal governments at the expense of Beirut.
The argument for decentralization, perhaps championed loudest by MP Sami Gemayel,
posits that giving power to local governments—on issues such as spending on
infrastructure, education and health care—will help re-build and improve the
country faster and better than the current system, where the central government
basically controls all spending and stands accused of neglecting development
more or less everywhere except Beirut.
Critics, however, contend that decentralization would strengthen sectarian
divisions, with communities effectively living in isolated “cantons.”
Diminishing the central government’s power has been debated in Lebanon for
decades.
Constanian would not provide a specific timeframe for when the Kataeb would
release their full decentralization plan, but he was quite confident it would
translate into a popularity boost for the party. It would also represent a
significant moment for a party seriously crippled by both the civil war and the
Syrian occupation that followed.
The Kataeb entered the 1975-1990 conflict as one of Lebanon’s strongest parties.
By the late-1980s, however, the Lebanese Forces—founded as the Kataeb’s military
arm—had formally split from the party, and internal fractures, primarily over
how to deal with the Syrians, further divided it. Splintered throughout the
1990s, a move to re-unite the party and bring former leader and president of
Lebanon from 1982 to 1988, Amin Gemayel, back to the helm began at the end of
that decade under Amin’s son, Pierre.
Amin returned from exile in 2000, and he and Pierre tried to bridge divisions in
the party. Kataeb Party members, who spoke to NOW Lebanon on the condition of
anonymity, said that in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Pierre and his brother
Sami were often at odds. At the same time, Nadim Gemayel—son of assassinated
President-elect Bashir, who founded the LF and was Amin’s brother—was not always
in lockstep with Pierre and Amin.
Notably, in 2003, Nadim backed Hikmat Deeb in a by-election to fill a vacant
parliamentary seat in the Baabda-Aley district. His allies in supporting Deeb
were mostly members of the Free Patriotic Movement—headed by Michel Aoun, who at
the time was in exile in France. Pierre and Amin backed Henry Helou, a consensus
candidate with Damascus’ blessing.
Nadim took an indirect shot at his relatives during an election rally in early
September 2003, describing the contest as a choice between “a loyalist candidate
[Helou] and an opposition candidate [Deeb],” hinting Pierre and Amin were
buckling to Syrian pressure. Nadim was also reportedly much closer to the LF
than the Kataeb in the first half of the 2000s.
The 2005 assassination of former Primer Rafik Hariri ushered in widespread
street protests—and an occupation by anti-Syrian protesters of parts of Beirut’s
downtown. Demonstrations coupled with international pressure pushed the Syrians
to withdraw from Lebanon after nearly 30 years.
Lebanon’s so-called “Cedar Revolution” pushed Nadim into the family fold, as he
saw “a historic opportunity to launch his political career officially and engage
in his father and grandfather's party, the Kataeb Party,” according to his
website.
The protests and ensuing formation of the March 14 coalition, however, pushed
Sami in a different direction. He formed a group, never officially a political
party, called Loubnanouna (“Our Lebanon”), which still exists as a
pro-decentralization lobby, largely in protest of the Kataeb’s joining March 14,
several sources told NOW Lebanon. Sami came back to the Kataeb following the
November 21, 2006 assassination of his brother.
Today the Kataeb Party is in an interesting position. Sources from all of the
main Christian parties have told NOW Lebanon that, on the ground, the Kataeb is
losing support among the youth to the LF, an ally with whom the party does not
see eye-to-eye on every issue, though Constanian said they agree on “90 percent”
of issues.
Constanian recognized the competition, but called it “legitimate and healthy.”
He was not concerned about any potential diminishing of the party, but said they
want to focus on energizing the youth with a “new vision” for the country,
centered on decentralization.
Sami seems to be the favored heir for his father Amin—though many supporters
insist internal elections are democratic, and no leader will be imposed on the
party—which might not sit well with his cousin Nadim. Reports of tensions
between the two are widespread, and in April 2010 Nadim walked out of a party
meeting after Sami and Amin were allowed to address members while his own
request was rebuffed.
On record, everyone NOW Lebanon spoke to about the rivalry played it down,
though one source said that in the unlikely event tensions heated up, it would
be a near disaster for the party.
Terrorized by crime, Baalbek residents buy arms
November 22, 2011 /By Rakan al-Fakih/The Daily Star
Shop owners in Baalbek protest outside the municipality against deteriorating
security situation in their city.
BAALBEK, Lebanon: Following a string of violent robberies and killings in recent
months, Baalbek-Hermel residents are taking security into their own hands while
renewing calls on the government to take action. Shop owners have been
repeatedly robbed at gunpoint and personal disputes have escalated into armed
clashes with machine guns and rocket propelled grenades, spreading fear among
residents and bringing commercial activity in the city to a near standstill.
Asaad Qaraa, the head of the Gathering of Baalbek Residents, a local civil
society group, said that the situation in the city has reached a “very dangerous
level.” “Shops in the city’s neighborhoods begin closing at 6 p.m. and all forms
of activity come to a halt,” he told The Daily Star.
Qaraa said that local Baalbek figures were spearheading efforts to find a
radical solution to the spike in criminal activities, but he was not optimistic.
He said that security could not be improved without a heavy state presence in
social, economic and security matters, “but it doesn’t seem like that will
happen in the foreseeable future, given the spreading chaos and how any personal
dispute now seems to become an exchange of gunfire.” Another prominent Baalbek
figure taking part in efforts to restore security noted that around 35 percent
of families Baalbek-Hermel live under the poverty line. The man, who declined to
give his name, said that the area had become a hub for networks of car thieves,
drugs smugglers and armed gangs.
Last month, armed clashes broke out in Baalbek after members of the Jaafar
family kidnapped an individual from the Rifai family, killing one person
involved in the abduction and a Palestinian child in the nearby Palestinian
refugee camp of al-Jalil. A number of other violent incidents shook the district
earlier in the fall.
Syrian national Duna al-Hayr, 55, was killed in Baalbek during a robbery and a
girl caught in the middle of a dispute at a mobile phone shop in the Hermel
village of Shawagheer was also killed. Two Lebanese men, Abbas Raad and Hussein
Yaghi, and a number of Syrian workers were robbed shortly after arriving in
Lebanon. A supermarket in the village of Bidnayel to the west of Baalbek, a
restaurant in the village of Duris, and a roastery and a gas station in Baalbek
were also targeted in robberies.Maher Kiwan, a Lebanese, was kidnapped and
released and a high school principal in upper Hermel was assaulted by students.
With the spike in crime, residents are acquiring guns to protect themselves and
their property and holding strikes to bring attention to their plight.
Prominent figures from the city and Baalbek-Hermel MPs met earlier this month
and urged the government to take action, while stressing that those responsible
for the crimes were not being protected by any political faction. Last week,
around 600 merchants and shop owners staged a demonstration in front of
Baalbek’s Serail to protest the deterioration of security in the city, following
the municipality’s call to strike. Mohammad Kanaan, the head of the Shop Owners
Association in the Bekaa, held security bodies and the judiciary responsible for
security lapses, accusing them of “negligence.”
“The city residents have decided to start a movement to direct the attention of
officials to what’s happening in the city, so that their shops do not turn into
arms caches for their own protection,” he said.
Kanaan called on Interior Minister Marwan Charbel to visit the city at the
soonest to see the situation for himself. Baalbek’s Mayor Hashem Othman said
that steps were being taken to improve security in the region. He explained that
a delegation from the municipality and the city’s civil society organizations
had visited Defense Minister Fayez Ghosn to underscore the “dangers” plaguing
the district.
Ghosn, said Othman, expressed his surprise with the level of crime and contacted
the Lebanese Army command, requesting that they increase security measures in
the area.
“This [strict security measures] was clearly observed by the visiting delegation
and [was also demonstrated] by more checkpoints especially at night,” he said.
“This is a real start to ending to this problem which has caused suffering and
affected all aspects of life.”
Iraq: US hands over detainees
save Hezbollah agent
By QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA, Associated Press
BAGHDAD (AP) — The U.S. handed over all of the remaining detainees in U.S.
custody in Iraq Tuesday, except for a Lebanese Hezbollah commander linked to the
death of four American troops, Iraqi and American officials said. The prisoner
transfer marks another step toward the American military's withdrawal from Iraq,
as it plans for all U.S. troops to be out of the country by the end of this
year.
It still leaves the contentious issue of what to do with a prisoner that many in
the U.S. worry will walk free if he's handed over to the Iraqi government.
Iraqi Deputy Justice Minister Busho Ibrahim said 37 detainees were transferred
to Iraqi custody Tuesday morning. A U.S. military official confirmed all the
remaining prisoners were transferred with the exception of Hezbollah operative
Ali Mussa Daqduq, who he said is still in American custody while the U.S. weighs
his situation. The official spoke on condition of anonymity due to the
sensitivity of the issue. Washington is worried that if Daqduq is transferred to
Iraqi custody, he'll be released. The Lebanese militant from that country's
Shiite Hezbollah guerrilla group was captured in 2007 in the Iraqi Shiite holy
city of Karbala. Hezbollah is an Iranian-backed militant group that the U.S. has
branded a terrorist organization. Daqduq is accused of working with Iranian
agents to train Shiite militias who targeted American soldiers in Iraq. He was
linked to a brazen 2007 raid in which four American soldiers were abducted and
killed in Karbala. He has been dubbed by a former CIA officer as "the worst of
the worst," and U.S. officials are worried that if he is transferred to Iraqi
custody, he could escape from Iraq's troubled prison system or simply be allowed
to walk free. The Obama administration is considering what to do with the
Hezbollah operative and has been weighing whether to transfer him to the United
States for a military trial. That would likely require the approval of the Iraqi
government. Under the security agreement, all detainees in U.S. custody must be
transferred to Iraqi authorities by the end of this year as part of plans to end
the American military presence in Iraq by 2012. At the height of the conflict,
the U.S. military held as many as 90,000 prisoners. Those numbers have slowly
dwindled as the U.S. has either released or transferred to Iraqi custody
thousands of the detainees. The U.S. now has just under 20,000 troops in Iraq on
eight bases. U.S. and Iraqi officials negotiated for months about whether to
keep a residual force of American troops in the country past the deadline, but
those plans were scuttled when Iraq refused to grant the troops the legal
protections the U.S. government required. Copyright © 2011 The Associated Press.
All rights reserved.
UN rights panel condemns Syria, Lebanon abstains
November 22, 2011/15 PM Daily Star
UNITED NATIONS: The U.N. General Assembly's human rights committee on Tuesday
condemned Syria for its eight-month crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in
a vote backed by Western nations and most Arab states. The resolution, drafted
by Britain, France and Germany, received 122 votes in favor, 13 against and 41
abstentions. Thirteen Arab states, including the six Arab co-sponsors, voted for
it, as did Syria's erstwhile ally Turkey. Russia and China, which vetoed a
European-drafted U.N. Security Council resolution last month that would have
condemned Syria and threatened possible future sanctions, abstained, according
to an official U.N. tally, which diplomats said could indicate a shift in their
positions.
Countries that voted against the resolution included Iran, North Korea, Belarus,
Nicaragua, Venezuela and Vietnam.
The overwhelming support for the committee's non-binding resolution showed how
isolated Damascus has become. Compared to the three other countries singled out
for condemnations by the General Assembly's Third Committee -- Iran, North Korea
and Myanmar -- Syria had the least number of supporters.
Arab states voting for the declaration were Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait,
Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Tunisia and the
United Arab Emirates. Syria was the only Arab state to vote against it, while
Algeria, Comoros, Lebanon and Yemen abstained.
Arab League members Iraq, Djibouti and Somalia did not vote in the committee,
where all 193 U.N. nations are represented.
Syrian U.N. Ambassador Bashar Ja'afari said the resolution had no meaning for
Damascus and portrayed it as a U.S.-inspired political move.
"Although the draft resolution is submitted primarily from three European
countries it is not a secret that the United States of America is the mastermind
and main instigator of the political campaign against my country," Ja'afari
said.
BACK TO THE SECURITY COUNCIL?
"This draft resolution definitely has nothing to do with human rights; it is
only a part of the typically hostile policy by the United States against Syria,"
he added.
Ja'afari held up for delegates what he said were documents naming terrorists
arrested while smuggling arms into Syria. He said the documents offered clear
proof of a U.S.-led plot to topple the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
The resolution says the committee "strongly condemns the continued grave and
systematic human rights violations by the Syrian authorities, such as arbitrary
executions, excessive use of force and the persecution and killing of protesters
and human rights defenders."
It also demands an immediate end to "arbitrary detention, enforced
disappearances, torture and ill treatment of detainees, including children" in
Syria, where more than 3,500 people have died in the crackdown, according to
U.N. figures.
German Ambassador Peter Wittig said it was time to move the issue back to the
15-nation Security Council, which has been deadlocked on Syria due to Russian
and Chinese opposition.
"The Security Council cannot fall behind the region," he said, referring to the
Arab League suspension of Syria. "We would encourage the ... council to come
back to this issue."
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said in a statement that the resolution
"sends a signal of united condemnation of the Syrian regime's systematic human
rights abuses."
"As long as the crisis in Syria continues the international pressure on the
Assad regime will only intensify," he said.
U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice also welcomed the committee's adoption of the
resolution, which will be confirmed by a new vote in a plenary meeting of the
General Assembly next month.
"By overwhelmingly adopting its first-ever resolution on Syria's human rights
abuses, the ... Third Committee has sent a clear message that it does not accept
abuse and death as a legitimate path to retaining power," she said in a
statement.
Philippe Bolopion of Human Rights Watch praised the committee's vote: "By siding
with the victims of the Syrian government's ruthless repression, the General
Assembly has succeeded where the Security Council had failed, paralyzed by the
vetoes of Russia and China," he said.
Canada's Forgein Minister Mr. Baird Concludes Successful
Visit to the Gulf Region
(No. 351 - November 22, 2011 - 10:15 a.m. ET) Foreign Affairs Minister John
Baird today concluded a highly successful visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
and Kuwait, where he took part in discussions about important developments in
the Middle East and North Africa region. In the UAE for the Sir Bani Yas Forum,
Baird met with his counterpart Sheikh Abdallah Bin Zayed alNahyan. They
discussed the mutually beneficial relationship between our two countries—one
that is strong and getting ever stronger based on solid commercial ties and a
growing number of people-to-people ties.
At the Forum, participants discussed a range of regional issues. In Kuwait,
Baird continued the progress made by G-8 leaders at Deauville, France, earlier
this year as part of the G-8/Broader Middle East North Africa (BMENA) Forum for
the Future.The Forum focused on the challenges facing the Middle East and North
Africa. “Canada will continue to support people who are seeking to bring
freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law to their respective
countries,” said Baird. At both events, Baird stressed the need for religious
freedoms to be respected and for women to be given central roles in the region’s
emerging democracies. “Canada will continue to protect Canada’s interests and
promote Canadians’ values around the world. Religious freedoms and the role of
women in civil society are two incredibly important features to safeguard in
these new and emerging democracies,” said Baird.
Canada laments cracks in Iran,
Syria sanctions
(AFP) – OTTAWA — Canada's top diplomat on Tuesday lamented cracks in the West's
imposing of sanctions on Syria and Iran while also urging Russia and China to
get onboard.
"We'd like to see others follow suit with the tough sanctions that Canada has"
imposed on Iran, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird said one day after
new sanctions against the Islamic republic were announced by the United States,
Britain and Canada. On Syria, he added: "We can't even get a resolution of
condemnation, let alone sanctions... through the UN Security Council."
"That's regrettable," he said in comments directed at Russia and China after the
two permanent members of the Security Council blocked UN sanctions against
Syria.
The new sanctions aimed at pressuring Tehran after the publication of the UN
nuclear watchdog's most damning report yet on the Iranian nuclear program.
The measures seek to limit the West's links with the Iranian Central Bank --
which has been key in funneling proceeds of energy sales to Iran's government.
Iran's energy sales are thought to account for around 70 percent of the
government's budget and are crucial to the broader Iranian economy.
However, the US government stopped short of adopting fully blown sanctions
against Iran's central bank. And the British measures reportedly will not
directly impact trade in Iranian oil.
Canada does not import oil from Iran, but banned sales to Iran's petrochemical,
oil and gas industry.
Iran, already hit with four rounds of UN sanctions, strongly denies its nuclear
program is geared towards making a bomb.
Copyright © 2011 AFP. All rights reserved.
Tantawi: Presidential elections next June, Muslim Brothers in government
DEBKAfile Special Report/November 22, 2011/ The riots in Cairo and other
Egyptian cities do not count as the country's second revolution this year. The
angry masses battling police in Cairo's Tahrir Square and the centers of
Alexandria, Ismailia and Port Said for four days – even if they do muster a
million demonstrators for removing the military council ruling Egypt since Hosni
Mubarak's overthrow last February – are not backed by any serious political
entity, including the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Supreme Military Council chairman, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi's
proposition Tuesday, Nov. 22, will have put some of them on the spot: They must
decide if their deadly clashes with police have achieved their purpose – or
carry on until every last general has retired.
In a TV broadcast Tuesday night, Field Marshal Tantawi announced decisions to
set up a new civilian national salvation government, hold parliamentary polls on
time next Monday, Nov. 28, and bring forward the presidential election to the
end of June 2012. Before the rioters hit the streets, the presidential election
date was open-ended and stretched well into 2013.
The new government will be led by a "technocrat" prime minister rather than a
politician, to speed up the transition to civilian rule. Until it is in place,
the incumbent administration which resigned will carry on.
The military council is clearly trying to buy some control over the street and
time, debkafile's Middle East sources report. It is the president who holds
supreme power in Egypt; the government is subordinate to him. But because
Egypt's post-Mubarak constitution has not been written, the procedures for
electing a president and his powers are still open-ended.
Tuesday, as the violence escalated in Cairo's Tahrir Square, the military
council invited mainstream political leaders, dominated by the Muslim
Brotherhood and mainstream political parties, to decide together how to calm the
unrest and save Egypt from total anarchy in time for Monday's vote. The
parliamentary election cycle goes on for four months until March 12.
They agreed that the unity government taking over would be a coalition between
the politicians and the generals. The former understand they cannot control the
street or attain elective power without the army's support.
It has not been missed in the West and Israel that the new civil government
allows the Muslim Brotherhood for the first time in its history to hold office
in national government.
A former Israeli defense minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, known for his dovish
views and tendency to nag Israeli officials to make every effort to come to
terms with the post-Mubarak rulers, offered a different message Tuesday: He
urged the government to start getting used to the disappearance of the 32-year
old peace treaty between the two countries, warning it would soon make way for
full-blown conflict.
At the same time, the apparent handover of rule from the armed forces to a civil
government is not expected to reduce the military junta's powers.
The party leaders and the presidential hopefuls Tuesday were faced with a choice
between cooperating with the military rulers or else lining up with the Tahrir
Square demonstrators. They opted for the former after noting that the protesters
speak with several voices and have no real leaders.
On Nov. 22, Egypt therefore found itself pulled by two opposing currents: A
civilian political system dominated by Islamic parties who are hand in glove
with the military and committed to preserving the generals' powers; and popular
street activism unabated by promised elections – at least until the military
rulers step aside.
Tantawi and his council hope the protesters will soon get tired and go home.
Syrian regime’s thugs kidnap woman for protesting
Tuesday, 22 November 2011 /The Syrian student Yaman al-Qaderi, known as the
Flower of Damascus, is still missing three weeks after being abducted for
attending a protest against President Bashar al-Assad
By Kamal Kobeissi /Al Arabiya
The Flower of Medical School or the Flower of Damascus is the nickname of Yaman
al-Qaderi, the 18-year-old girl who was abducted by the thugs of the Syrian
regime three weeks ago for taking part in protests against President Bashar al-Assad.
Her whereabouts remain unknown. Qaderi, along with a male classmate, was
abducted at the entrance to the Medical School where they both study, for taking
part in anti-regime protests. Her classmate, however, was released shortly
thereafter but she remains in detention at an unknown place. The magnitude of
the event and the way it serves as an indication of the brutality of the Syrian
regime is demonstrated in the Facebook page dedicated to her which has so far
attracted more than 13,000 members. There is also a website called “The Syrian
Revolution Against Bashar al-Assad”, both of which declared today the “Tuesday
of Freedom to Yaman al-Qaderi” and vowed to spare no effort to release her. On
another dissident website called Syria al-Mondasa, Arabic for “Sneaky Syria” in
reference to the word used to label protestors who are viewed as traitors, an
eye witness writes the details of Qaderi’s abduction. According to the witness,
25 cars loaded with regime thugs, also known in colloquial Arabic and
particularly in Syria in as “Shabeeha,” stopped at the Medical School on
November 2. “They got out of the cars with stun guns and locked the gates
of the campus then started violently dispersing students who were taking part in
an anti-regime protest,” wrote the witness. “They then arrested 12 students,
five male and seven female, and locked them up in one of the university
buildings.” The witness adds that students were infuriated by the arrest of
their colleagues so they rallied the following day in front of the building
where those arrested were detained and demanded their immediate release. Yaman
Qaderi was one of the protestors and it was then that she and her colleague were
arrested after the protest was violently crushed with the aid of employees at
the university.
Another eye witness adds that 10 of the regime’s thugs took Qaderi and started
beating her up brutally. “She kept screaming and crying while one of those
thugs, a woman, was standing there watching her and smiling,” the witness wrote
on the website. The comments on the website demonstrate the support Qaderi
is getting and the growing indignation of Syrians at the atrocities committed by
the regime.
“I feel we have boarded a time machine and gone back 610 years at the time of
Tamerlane,” wrote a medical student. “Our cities are besieged, our youth are
getting killed and our girls are being abducted.”
Another colleague of Qaderi’s wrote, “How can my peaceful friend who is known
for her ethics and comes from a very good family be a member of the armed gangs
the regime claims the revolutionaries belong to?”According to information
available online, Qaderi’s family lives in Riyadh and she came to Damascus to
enroll in the medical school.*(This article was translated from Arabic by Sonia
Farid)
Turkish prime minister tells Syria's Assad to step down
Turkey's prime minister Tayyip Erdogan says Syrian president Bashar al-Assad
should resign for the sake of regional peace.
By Jonathon Burch, Reuters / November 22, 2011/Ankara, Turkey
Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan called on Tuesday for Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad to step down for the sake of peace in the region and said Turkey
could not turn its back on the Syrian people.
Erdogan said Assad should learn a lesson from the fate of Muammar Gaddafi -- the
Libyan leader toppled by rebels in August and killed after his capture last
month -- and that criticism of the Syrian government's violent crackdown on
protesters did not amount to a call for international military intervention. In
a further signal Turkey was stepping up pressure on its one-time ally, Turkish
broadcaster CNN Turk reported that Turkey's land forces commander had travelled
to a city near the Syrian border to inspect Turkish frontier troops."Without
spilling any more blood, without causing any more injustice, for the sake of
peace for the people, the country and the region, finally step down," Erdogan
said in a speech aimed directly at Assad. "We do not have eyes on any country's
land, we have no desire to interfere in any country's internal affairs. "But
when a people is persecuted, especially a people that are our relatives, our
brothers, and with whom we share a 910 km border, we absolutely cannot pretend
nothing is happening and turn our backs," Erdogan said. After long courting
Assad, Turkey has in recent months stepped up criticism over its neighbour's
failure to end an eight-month crackdown on protests and implement promised
democratic reforms. Turkish leaders have taken aim at the Syrian leader almost
every day since Turkish diplomatic missions inside Syria were assaulted by pro-Assad
crowds earlier this month. Erdogan called on Assad again to find the
perpetrators for those raids and for an attack on a bus carrying Turkish
pilgrims in Syria on Monday.
In an interview with Britain's Guardian newspaper on Tuesday, Turkish President
Abdullah Gul said Syria was now at a "dead end" and that change was "inevitable"
but said that change should not come about through external intervention.
Erdogan said Turkey's criticism of Assad was not a call for outside
interference. "Criticising a dictator who persecutes and turns his weapons on
his own people is not interfering in internal affairs, it is not a call to the
world for a military intervention," he said. "We want nothing more than peace
and welfare for a people who are our brothers." While Turkey is opposed to
outside intervention, it has met with Syrian opposition groups and allows them
to operate in Turkish cities. It has also given refuge to Syrian army defectors
but denies it is supporting an armed resistance.
On Tuesday, CNN Turk reported the commanding general of Turkey's land force's
was in the southern city of Sanliurfa near the Syrian border to inspect troops.
It gave no more details.
Turkish newspapers quoted officials at the weekend saying Turkey could set up a
no-fly or buffer zone in Syrian territory to protect people from Assad's
security forces, in order to head off a potential mass exodus of refugees from
Syria. There are currently more than 7,000 Syrian refugees living in camps
inside Turkey. Ankara has bad memories of the 1991 Gulf War, when some 500,000
Iraqi refugees fled to Turkey to escape Saddam Hussein's forces.
Analysis: Syria's Assad seen ignoring Gaddafis' fate
By Samia Nakhoul/LONDON | Mon Nov 21, 2011
LONDON (Reuters) - The chilling spectacle of Muammar Gaddafi's brutal end last
month and the capture of his son Saif al-Islam this week, far from deterring
Bashar al-Assad, seem to have energized him into redoubling his efforts to crush
Syria's eight-month rebellion. As the Arab League intensified Assad's isolation
by suspending Syria's membership, defecting soldiers in the Free Syrian Army
carried out their boldest attacks so far at Deraa in the south and on an Air
Force intelligence base near Damascus. Unconfirmed reports said the rebels also
fired rockets at a headquarters of the ruling Ba'ath party in Damascus, until
now firmly locked down by the regime's security apparatus. The country of 22
million, convulsed this year by a civil uprising like those that brought down
dictators in Tunisia and Egypt, now appears to be on the brink of a Libya-style
armed insurgency, with arms flowing in from Lebanon, Jordan and from soldiers
who have deserted with their weapons. Most observers believe Assad will fight it
out, playing on fears of a sectarian war between minorities and the Sunni
majority if the country's complex ethno-sectarian mosaic unravels, and that
neither western powers nor Arab neighbors would risk military intervention to
prevent it.
Arab leaders and Syrian opposition figures, with growing support from the Arab
League, are now lobbying for a "Contact Group" for Syria, led by Britain and
France, to help prepare for a transition in the belief that Assad's days are
numbered and preparations to deal with the fall-out are now essential. "I think
we've entered into a new phase. I don't know if it's the final phase but it is
significant because of two things: on the ground there is a more militarized
environment, and in the diplomatic sphere, a more determined effort which
includes Arab cover," Salman Shaikh, Director of the Brookings Doha Center, told
Reuters. As Assad expands his military onslaught, which might soon include the
use of air power, Arab leaders want the group to consider contingency plans for
no fly zones and safe havens near the Turkish and Jordanian borders to protect
civilians.
"The Assads are finished and the dam could burst as soon as next year," one
senior Arab diplomat said. "The Arabs have acted because they know he cannot
survive." There is now, moreover, an Arab, international and Turkish coalition
that has proven to be effective in Libya and will be effective with Syria,
according to Salman Shaikh. "If you look at the core countries that are driving
this: France, Turkey, Qatar and the U.S. This disengagement and attempt at
isolating Syria, particularly by these countries, is very significant and I
think will have, in the longer run (and it is a long run game) a debilitating
effect on the regime," Shaikh said. The Arab League said it would follow through
with its decision to suspend Syria, establish contacts with the opposition and
examine how the Arab bloc and the United Nations can protect civilians from
military attack."An international consensus is emerging with the exception of
Russia that Syria is to blame for the violence," said Fawaz Gerges, Professor of
Middle Eastern Politics at the London School of Economics.But the 46-year-old
Assad looks set to tough it out. "The conflict will continue and the pressure to
subjugate Syria will continue. Syria will not bow down," Assad told the Sunday
Times.Most analysts said Assad, who can depend on the loyalty only of two elite
Alawaite units - the Fourth Armoured Division and the Republican Guard - cannot
maintain current military operations without cracks emerging in the armed
forces.
TAKING A GAMBLE
They say Assad is taking a gamble because of his growing deployment of regular
units whose rank and file are Sunnis.
"If you have to move these people around, they are going to get tired ... They
are going to crack," the Arab diplomat said.
Assad, who inherited power from his father Hafez al-Assad 2000, is a member of
the minority Alawite community, an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam that amounts to
about 12 percent of the population and dominates the state, the army and the
security services in the majority Sunni Muslim country.
The 260-member Syrian National Council, which is leading the opposition against
the Assads' 41-year rule, said a conference will take place in Egypt under the
auspices of the Arab League, to bring together political factions and
independent figures to plan the transition and set rules for a democratic
system."The opposition is more mature now. It is ready to agree on a common
vision," said SNC spokeswoman Bassma Kodmani.
There are many scenarios that could see Assad brought down; none of them neat
and orderly.
Some see an Alawite who is part of the community's hierarchy - but not the
regime's inner circle - moving to oust Assad and his family and, in the interest
of the Alawites and other minorities such as the Christians and Druze, to embark
on an orderly transition toward a new democratic Syria.
"I think efforts to try and pressure the Alawite security core by slapping
sanctions, asset freezes and travel bans with the promise of putting them on a
list for the International Criminal Court in the future is a good thing, that
should concentrate their minds," Shaikh added.
Observers say there are some prominent Alawite figures who could play a role in
a post-Assad Syria while defecting military officers could also be at the
forefront.
Related to that, there are groups within the opposition working on a strategic
10-year transition plan.
It involves some sort of a national unity government, which comprises major
blocs and is as inclusive as possible and could last for a couple of years. This
would set the stage for parliamentary elections and a new constitution. As
opposition plans start to crystallize with increased external support, Assad is
trying to present himself as the only shield against a slide into chaos,
Iraq-style sectarian carnage, and the triumph of hardline Islamists from the
Sunni majority. While the struggle still looks unequal, Assad has already lost
the political battle in cities such as Homs, Hama or in the Idlib and Deraa
areas, where he has only been able to maintain control through overstretched
military units. Many Syrians have defied the military crackdown to keep up
demands for change, despite bloodshed which the United Nations says has cost
3,500 lives -- as well as those of 1,100 soldiers and police, according to the
government.
Aside from the human, military and political cost, Assad faces U.S. and European
sanctions against Syria's oil exports and an economic collapse that is crippling
his government.
MILITARY MEANS
But nobody believes sanctions alone can bring down Assad.
"I am not suggesting that there's going to be some orderly disintegration of the
regime. It is likely that there will be a continued militarization and the
regime will be ousted through military means, with the assistance perhaps of
Turkey and other Arab states - perhaps with buffer zones in both Jordan and
Turkey which would be focused on protecting civilians and offering a safe haven
for those launching attacks," Shaikh said.
The big powers are more united in their campaign to subdue Assad, while ruling
out military intervention.
"A military intervention is not likely and the NATO example of Libya is not
applicable to Syria. Where would they hit? Gaddafi had military bases entrenched
across the country. Any attack on Syria would have reverberations and reactions
in neighboring countries," said Middle East expert Jamil Mroue.
Armed with a U.N. Security Council mandate to protect civilians, Western powers
provided air support to Libyan rebels who toppled Gaddafi, but are not inclined
to repeat the feat in Syria, in a far trickier arena of the Middle East.
Russia, which believes NATO stretched the U.N. mandate on Libya to embrace
regime-change, firmly opposes any resolution against Syria, where it has its
only permanent Mediterranean port facilities at Tartous. Assad's own
specter-waving has reinforced the fears of Syria's neighbors - Israel, Lebanon,
Iraq, Jordan and Turkey - about the possibly seismic consequences of a power
shift in a nation on the faultlines of several Middle Eastern conflicts.
Instability in Syria, an ally of Shi'ite Iran and Hezbollah, could spread to
volatile Lebanon or Iraq.
Israel relies on Assad to stabilize their common border, and fears his fall
could herald less predictable rulers.
Undeniably, too, Assad still retains substantial support within his own Alawite
minority, parts of the business elite, Christians and others who fear that
Islamist radicals might come to the fore, and, crucially, army and security
force commanders. "The Syrian regime is not isolated internally as many would
like to believe. It retains a strong social base of support in major centers
like Damascus, Aleppo and Latakia where 60 percent of the population live,"
Gerges said. "There is a real danger that Syria has already descended into a
prolonged conflict no one knows its outcome internally and regionally. I don't
see a way out for the Assad regime. Assad has no exit strategy. This is a fight
to the bitter end for the family, the clan, with the mentality: either I am
going to be killed or I kill my enemy," Gerges said.
There are those who believe that Assad's last real ally, Iran, will help him
financially."Iran will not give up on Bashar. It is a matter of survival for
them too," said Mroue. "Iran believes that targeting Syria is a first step in
clipping the wings of the Islamic Republic. The same goes for Hezbollah."
Yet some observers note that the Iranians, struggling with U.N. sanctions and
economic problems of their own, are already making tentative contact with the
Syrian opposition.
(Editing by Giles Elgood)
Syria eyes Iraq, Lebanon economic lifelines
November 22, /By Sammy Ketz /Daily Star
DAMASCUS: Syria, isolated over its deadly protest crackdown, hopes to cash in on
support from neighbours Iraq and Lebanon to counter Arab sanctions that threaten
to choke its economy. "We know how to manage when the going gets rough, because
we have been facing sanctions for years," a Syrian official told AFP on
condition of anonymity. "Russia is our political shield while Iraq, Lebanon and
Iran are our economic lungs," the official added. The Arab League, which has
suspended Syria's membership in the 22-strong bloc, has threatened Damascus with
punitive measures over the crackdown on protests and is due to meet on Thursday
for more crisis talks. Lebanon had voted against suspending Damascus along with
Yemen at an emergency meeting of the bloc on November 12, while Iraq abstained.
Syria's traditional allies Russia and Iran both slammed the suspension. The
European Union and the United States have already imposed a raft of sanctions on
the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his inner circle to press for
an end to the bloodshed. More than 3,500 people, mostly civilians, have been
killed in the country since mid-March when the wave of anti-regime protests
erupted, according to the United Nations. The Arabs are also preparing to punish
Syria after it failed to implement a plan that had been endorsed by Damascus to
pull its troops from the streets, free prisoners and engage in talks with the
opposition. And experts warn that the raft of sanctions the Arabs plan to impose
could asphyxiate the country. "We want to strangle financially the Assad regime,
not punish the people," Arab League deputy chief for economic affairs Mohammad
Twaijri said in statement published on Monday in the Saudi business daily Al-Iqtissadiya.
The Arab sanctions could include "travel bans, halting bank transfers, freezing
Syrian assets in Arab countries, halting Arab projects in Syria and joint
Arab-Syrian projects," the paper said quoting Twaijri. He also said Syria's
membership in the Arab free trade zone could be frozen and that an Arab League
economic and social committee would meet to decide which sanctions to impose
before asking the bloc to vote on them. According to Syria's bureau of
statistics, 52.5 percent of all Syrian exports went to Arab countries in 2009
while 16.4 percent of imports came from Arab nations. Neighbouring Iraq, whose
ties with Damascus have improved in the aftermath of the fall of Saddam
Hussein's regime, tops the list of importers, buying up 31.4 percent of outgoing
Syrian goods. "I don't think that Iraq will take part in sanctions against
Syria," a government official with close ties to Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki
told AFP. Syria also imports 4.1 percent of its goods from Lebanon, where the
government is dominated by the Syria- and Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group.
A European economic expert based in Damascus says the Arabs have no legal basis
to freeze Syria's membership in the Arab free trade zone.
"There are no clauses in the pact calling for exclusion or suspension of a
member. A nation can pull out but cannot be excluded. There is no legal basis
for that," the expert said.
Furthermore Syria can hit back and punish the Arabs by closing its borders with
neighbours Turkey and Jordan -- which have been critical of the crackdown --
cutting off a major conduit for the transit of European goods destined for Saudi
Arabia and other Gulf nations, the expert added. Syrian businessmen meanwhile
said whatever the case, the imposition of Arab sanctions on the country, in
addition to a raft of US and EU measures, will make life miserable. "We'll
breathe with much difficulty but we won't die as long as the government sets up
a real economic strategy" to counter the sanctions, said a Syrian who imports
medical products. Another trader said the poor would suffer the most, regardless
of Arab League assurances that it wants to spare the Syrian population of any
added hardships.
"For years we have faced Western embargoes and it has forced us to become
inventive," the businessman said.
"Many Syrians have set up offshore companies in several countries, including
Lebanon, to sell or buy merchandise," he added.