LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِNovember 19/2011

Bible Quotation for today/Who Is the Greatest?/Temptations to Sin
Matthew 18/01-09: " At that time the disciples came to Jesus, asking, Who is the greatest in the Kingdom of heaven? So Jesus called a child to come and stand in front of them,3 and said, I assure you that unless you change and become like children, you will never enter the Kingdom of heaven. The greatest in the Kingdom of heaven is the one who humbles himself and becomes like this child. And whoever welcomes in my name one such child as this, welcomes me. If anyone should cause one of these little ones to lose his faith in me, it would be better for that person to have a large millstone tied around his neck and be drowned in the deep sea. How terrible for the world that there are things that make people lose their faith! Such things will always happen—but how terrible for the one who causes them! If your hand or your foot makes you lose your faith, cut it off and throw it away! It is better for you to enter life without a hand or a foot than to keep both hands and both feet and be thrown into the eternal fire. And if your eye makes you lose your faith, take it out and throw it away! It is better for you to enter life with only one eye than to keep both eyes and be thrown into the fire of hell.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources

The Rai rumor tells us little/By: Michael Young/November 18/11
 Friends turned foes/By: Cagil M. Kasapoglu/November 18/11
Syria: technocrats at the crossroads/By Amir Taheri/November 18/11
The year of drafting constitutions/By Tariq Alhomayed/November 18/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for November 18/11
Iran to hold air defense drill simulating Israeli attack on its nuclear sites  
 Catholic patriarchs urge Christians to hang on to lands
 Security tightened around embassies in Lebanon
More than one person behind Tyre attacks: sources
Sleiman calls for networks to solve land feuds
 Anti-Assad rally in Lebanon warns “Hezbollah next”
Lebanon Delays Sadr Case Ruling Pending Proof Gadhafi Dead
Miqati Picture Burned, Hizbullah Warned in Tripoli Anti-Assad Demo
 Jumblat: If Proportional Representation Aims to Weaken Our Sway, We Got the Message
 PSP, independents key to AUB polls
 Hezbollah says Ban biased in 1701 report
 Tripoli residents march in solidarity with Syrian people
Lebanon court requests proof Gadhafi dead
 Syrian leader's uncle calls for him to step down
Turkey, Jordan to set up safe zones in Syria: diplomats
Arabs reject Syria amendments to observer mission: diplomat
Syria Forces Kill 17, Including 4 Children, in Friday Protests
 Canadian Foreign Minister Mr. Baird to Visit United Arab Emirates and Kuwait to Discuss Regional Peace and Security
 Can Syria's president survive?
 Syria wants amendments to Arab monitoring plan
 Syria Requests Changes to Arab League Observer Mission
 Syria and South Africa
 Report: Russia warships to enter Syria waters in bid to stem foreign intervention
 Weekly Standard: Is Our Technology Helping Syria?
 France-Turkey rivalry over Syria
 IAEA board adopts resolution rebuking Iran nuclear program
Suspicion in Iran that Stuxnet caused Revolutionary Guards base explosions
U.N. Atomic Watchdog Condemns Iran
 IAEA board adopts resolution rebuking Iran nuclear program
Benetton Shock Ad Pioneer Slams Italian Firm's Latest Effort

 

The Rai rumor tells us little
Michael Young/Daily Star/ November 18, 2011
A new book published rumors that the Syrians are blackmailing Patriarch Bechara al-Rai after catching him having an affair. (AFP photo)
For years a lubricious rumor had circulated about Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai. A Lebanese author in Paris, Antoine Basbous, has, so to speak, just torn the covers away by putting it all in print. Regardless of whether the rumor is true, the method of publicizing it remains questionable, as is Basbous’ interpretation of its significance.
In a new book, Le Tsunami Arabe, published by Fayard, Basbous argues that Rai’s recent public endorsement of the Syrian regime is a likely result of the patriarch’s being blackmailed by Damascus. Basbous was the Lebanese Forces representative in France, where he now heads the Observatoire des Pays Arabes. He describes an incident when Rai was still bishop of Jbeil: allegedly, the onetime Syrian intelligence chief in Lebanon, Ghazi Kanaan, had Rai filmed communing rather too tenderly with a member of his flock, and subsequently used this against the clergyman to shape his political attitudes.
Is the story true? If it is, Rai would hardly be the first priest to have a fondness for the fairer sex, even less so in a Maronite Church where, at a certain level of the hierarchy, married men are allowed to become clergymen. Moreover, Rai’s inherent narcissism may predispose him to such acts, whereby every conquest confirms the validity of his self-love.
However, idle speculation aside, the reality is that Basbous offers no solid evidence to substantiate his claim. Publishing a rumor does not make it any less of a rumor. It is surprising that a respectable publishing house like Fayard failed to demand more from the author by way of proof. The charge, if true, is a serious one. Given the influence of the Maronite patriarch on Lebanese politics, it merits investigation. Yet by tossing the information out as he does, Basbous actually diminishes its importance, so that the story will titillate without otherwise informing us whether Rai is indeed in Syria’s pocket.
There is a second problem with Basbous’ rationale. Why assume that Rai’s defense of President Bashar al-Assad, or for that matter Hezbollah’s weapons, has to be a consequence of blackmail? It is unfortunate, but when the patriarch implies that Maronites are better off allying themselves with other Middle Eastern minorities—Alawites or Shia—against the Sunnis and the prospect of a revived Sunni Islamism, he is not at great odds with the Maronite mainstream.
There are certainly Maronites who disapprove of the mad notion of an “alliance of minorities.” However, there are also many who remain so fearful of their minority status amid a Sunni majority in the Arab world, and who see Islamism everywhere, that they are willing to pursue the most ruinous of policies. We can, legitimately, condemn Rai for his pitiable short-sightedness, and for siding with the criminal dictatorial enterprise in Damascus against the most basic principles of his own faith. But this may not make him such a renegade as Basbous imagines.
Even Rai’s apparent disregard of the traditional outlook of Bkirki doesn’t tell us much. Yes, the new patriarch is very different from his predecessor, but there are not a few Maronite bishops who have tended to share Rai’s perspective against those of Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir. Bkirki is a house of many mansions (and given the wealth amassed by the senior clergy, you can just as well take the sentence literally), so that it is not always easy to determine which political approach best expresses the consensus in the Maronite Church.
And for that matter, what is the consensus in the Vatican? The tortuous ways of the Catholic Church are sometimes difficult to follow, but by most accounts Rai’s election was actively supported by Rome. In remarks several weeks ago, the papal nuncio seemed to back up the patriarch, despite his controversial pronouncements. Even if that was to be expected, we can assume there is a current in the Church that would agree with the way Rai seeks to safeguard the Middle East’s Christians.
Rai has been less verbose lately, so perhaps he received advice from the Vatican to be more careful. But that does not mean that the leadership of the Church is upset with him. After all, Pope Benedict XVI has made the protection of Arab Christians a priority, and earlier this year was sternly taken to task by Al-Azhar when he criticized the Egyptian government for not doing enough to protect Coptic Christians following a New Year’s bomb attack against a church.
Rai fits well into this ecclesiastical ambiance. His recent visit to Iraq, to bolster the Christian communities there, must have been welcomed at the Vatican. Benedict is no fool. He no doubt realizes that Arab Christians will not survive if they remain isolated from their predominantly Sunni surroundings. And yet there is a profoundly conservative side to the man that may explain why he has not pushed harder for a rapprochement between Christians and Sunnis, and why the Vatican has reacted with such shameful reticence to the Arab uprisings.
Neither Bkirki nor Rome has progressive impulses. The Catholic Church is headed by a man who has made the containment of change a hallmark of his tenure at the Vatican, both as pope and as prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith under Pope John Paul II. The sad truth is that Syria may not have needed to blackmail Bechara al-Rai to elicit his favorable words on Assad's rule. The patriarch’s fear of revolutionary transformation aligns with that of the institution he serves.
Michael Young is opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut and author of The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle. He tweets @BeirutCalling

Anti-Assad rally in Lebanon warns “Hezbollah next”
November 18, 2011 /Some 150 protesters gathered in Lebanon's Sunni Muslim city of Tripoli Friday to demand Syria's Bashar al-Assad step down and warning his ally, the Shia Hezbollah, that it would be next. Chanting "Down with Bashar al-Assad" and "Your turn is next, Hezbollah," they gathered outside the local Qubbah mosque before making their way through the densely populated city, which is located on Lebanon's northern coast. The rally, organized by a local Islamic group, called for Lebanon to withdraw its ambassador from Syria and demanded that Prime Minister Najib Mikati, himself a Tripoli native and Sunni Muslim, step down. Protesters also burned pictures of the premier, whose government is dominated by the pro-Syrian Hezbollah. The protest comes days after Lebanon voted against suspending Damascus from the 22-member Arab League, siding with Yemen and Syria.
The vote further escalated an already heated feud between the country's anti-Assad opposition, led by ex-premier Saad Hariri, and Mikati's government, which is standing by the embattled Syrian leader. Tripoli has regularly been the scene of clashes between Sunnis and minority Alawite Muslims, who are loyal to the fellow Alawite Assad family.
Assad's troops have cracked down on protests against the regime in Syria, killing more than 3,500 people in eight months and triggering a torrent of international condemnation.
-AFP/NOW Lebanon

Security tightened around embassies in Lebanon
November 18, 2011/ The Daily Star //By Rima S. Aboulmona
BEIRUT: Security has been beefed up around Arab and Western embassies in Lebanon after the Arab League decision to suspend Syria was met with attacks on diplomatic missions there, the interior minister's office told The Daily Star Friday. “Security around Arab and non-Arab embassies which are directly affected by the regional situation has been boosted,” Interior Minister Marwan Charbel said in remarks published Friday in pan-Arab daily Asharq Al-Awsat and confirmed by his office.
Security and ministerial sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Daily Star that security measures around embassies across the country – including those of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, France and the U.S. – have more than doubled in recent days.
The Arab League decision over the weekend to suspend Syria from its meetings over its violent suppression of anti-government demonstrations was met with angry protests and attacks on several diplomatic missions there, including those of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, France and Morocco. Rabat and Paris pulled their ambassadors out of Syria in protest.
Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat published a statement Friday from an opposition group calling itself the "Syrian Liberal Party," in which the party said it had "received information from Syrian security members cooperating with us that the Syrian Air Force Intelligence plans to attack the Qatari Embassy in Beirut and kidnap Qatari nationals in Lebanon."
Security sources told The Daily Star that personnel from the highly-trained Rapid Intervention squad of the Internal Security Forces have been put on alert to back up the various diplomatic missions across Beirut in the event of possible security threats.
Police were also directed to increase surveillance of embassies for unusual activity and intensify road patrols around the embassies as well as ambassadors’ residences, the sources added. The ISF was also instructed to be on the lookout for any suspicious persons or foreign objects around the embassies to ward against any possible explosion or attack.
The sources said Charbel had acknowledged during private meetings that security around embassies had been enhanced in “an effort to thwart any possible attack that would have repercussions on Lebanon's stability.”

Arabs reject Syria amendments to observer mission: diplomat
November 18, 2011/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: The Arab League has turned down last-minute amendments by Damascus on a deal to allow an observer mission into Syria, diplomats told The Daily Star Friday. The diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the changes requested by Syria – that human rights activists be excluded from the observer mission and only civilians working for Arab governments take part – were rejected by the regional organization.
Earlier Friday, reports surfaced saying that Syria had agreed “in principle” to allow an observer mission into the country but requested several amendments.
The Arab League formally suspended Damascus this week over its crackdown on an 8-month-old uprising, which the U.N. estimates has killed more than 3,500 people. The group wants to send hundreds of observers to the country to try to help end the bloodshed.
Syrian President Bashar Assad is facing mounting pressure from home and abroad over the country’s crisis, which appears to be spiraling out of control as attacks by army defectors increase and some protesters take up arms to protect themselves. The escalating violence has raised fears of civil war.
“We call on the Syrian opposition to avoid recourse to an armed insurrection,” French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe told a joint news conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Ankara, Turkey. “A civil war would of course be a true catastrophe.”
Asked about the possibility of foreign intervention, Juppe said: “This would have to be within the framework of the U.N. Security Council.” – With AP

Turkey, Jordan to set up safe zones in Syria: diplomats
November 18, 2011/The Daily Star/
BEIRUT: Turkey and Jordan, backed by Western and Arab powers, are preparing to set up two "safe zones" for civilians inside Syria, diplomats said Friday.
The Western and Arab diplomats told The Daily Star that Syria's two neighbors would press ahead with preparations to establish the two havens if President Bashar Assad did not sign on to an Arab plan aimed at ending a bloody crackdown on anti-regime protesters by Saturday.
The diplomats said an international meeting in Paris would discuss later Friday the details of the plans to set up the zones in southern and northern Syria.
On Wednesday, the Arab League gave Assad three days to agree in writing to allowing hundreds of observers into Syria to oversee the implementation of the Arab plan to end eight months of violence against protesters that has killed more than 3,000 people.
Representatives of the United States, France, Britain, Germany, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt and Jordan will meet to coordinate a response to Assad's possible refusal to sign on to the deal, the diplomats said.
On top of the agenda is agreeing for NATO member Turkey to establish a safe haven in northern Syria and for U.S.-ally Jordan to set up a similar zone in southern Syria.
The diplomats said with Russia and China continuing to support Assad, it was impossible to get a U.N. Security Council resolution that would impose measures to protect civilians in Syria.
In the absence of the possibility of Security Council action, Friday's meeting in Paris was the best way to provide an international umbrella for these measures, one diplomat said. The Arab League is also expected to propose economic sanctions on Damascus next week, he said.
Damascus and its allies have warned that any military intervention in Syria could lead to chaos in the Middle East.
Syrian forces have been planting mines along the Jordan border this week in what appears to be in an anticipation for such a move, the diplomats said. The Syrian forces had mined parts of the border with Lebanon a few weeks ago.
Turkey, which had set up camps for Syrian refugees inside its territory, has become more vocal in its opposition to one time ally Assad while Jordan's King Abdullah called this week on the Syrian leader to step down.
Protesters and activists in Syria have been calling for international protection for months. Some army defectors and gunmen have stepped up attacks on Syrian forces in recent days.
The diplomats also reported that Assad appeared to be growing increasingly nervous over his safety with some reports suggesting he feared being targeted by an air strike. There were also reports of discontent among his inner circle and some Syrian diplomats abroad, though no signs of that have been visible.
There has been no independent confirmation of these reports.

Syria: technocrats at the crossroads
By Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat
Syria will not be another Libya,” says Walid al-Muallem, trying to put the debate about his country’s tragedy on a different trajectory.
In a sense, he is right. History does not repeat itself often, and, when it does, does it as farce. As Marx noted, the uncle’s tri-cornered hat becomes the dunce’s cap for the nephew.
Muallem who has acted as Bashar al-Assad’s Foreign Minister for years, does not seem to appreciate that, by comparing Syria with Libya, he implicitly admits that his country is in trouble.
His admission is no surprise. The Assad regime is becoming increasingly isolated. The Europeans are already on the warpath, albeit metaphorically, against the Assad regime. As for the Arabs, always late bloomers when it comes to doing the right thing, they have started playing catch-up with Europe and Turkey.
The Assad regime is left with few supporters led by the Islamic Republic in Tehran. However, even the mullahs are beginning to have doubts about Assad’s survival. The Khomeinist regime is an opportunist power, having no qualms about ditching allies that look like losers.
In Iraq, the mullahs dropped the Hakim clan, their old instrument, to put Muqtada al-Sadr, once their loudest enemy, on the payroll. They even paid for fixing his teeth and helped him take a new wife.
In Afghanistan, Tehran distanced itself from the Northern Alliance to flirt with the Taleban. The mullahs apply the cliché in manuals of cynicism: nations have no permanent friends and enemies, only permanent interests!
Thus, it is no surprise that Tehran has opened “channels of communication” with the Syrian opposition. Contact was established at Tehran’s request, soon after opposition figures met Russian diplomats.
Tehran could not let Turkey have a monopoly of initiatives regarding Syria. Iran has invested some $20 billion in Syria, compared with Turkey’s $25 billion. In the case of Iran, the investment is more significant because much of it belongs to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). If Iran ends up on the side of loser, that is to say the despot, a lot of IRGC money may be in danger.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi have carefully tried to put blue water between Tehran and Damascus. This week it was the turn of Iran’s Ambassador to Damascus, Muhammad-Reza Raouf, to play variation on the same theme.
“Syria needs profound reforms,” he mused. “In this, we add our voice to the voice of those who insist on change.”
Using “resistance” as a shibboleth, the Assad clan tries to advertise the support it hopes to get from the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas.
However, none of the 17 branches of Hezbollah operate as independent actors on any major issue. Hezbollah is an organization created, bankrolled and controlled by Tehran the way Moscow ran the Communist International (Comintern) in the 1930s. The head of the Lebanese branch, Hassan Nasrallah is a functionary of the Iranian government. If Tehran orders him to drop Assad he will do so without hesitation.
As for Hamas, its leader Khalid al-Mishal is already seeking a new exile address.
The question that al-Muallem should ask is not whether Syria could become another Libya. He should ponder where Syria might be a year from now.
Even supposing that, pursuing his policy of rule by massacre, Assad manages to impose the calm of the graveyard, the outcome may prove to be a pyrrhic victory.
Like every country, to survive and prosper Syria needs to fit into its geopolitical habitat. Under Assad, that may have become impossible.
One key element of the Syrian geopolitical habitat is the Mediterranean. Under Assad, Syria is being shut out of that space. Even Greece and Cyprus which always had close ties with Syria are now reluctant to dine with Assad, even with a long spoon.
Another key element in Syria’s geopolitical habitat is the Levant, the peninsula between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. Here, too, Syria is being shut out.
As noted, Turkey is taking the lead in mobilizing the international community against the despot. It has established ties with the Syrian National Council and hosted the opposition’s conferences. Turkey is also contacting the United Nations to set up safe havens for Syrians fleeing massacre by Assad.
In the words of its king, Jordan has become the first Arab nation to publicly call on Assad to step aside. Jordan is also taking the first steps to create safe havens for Syrians just inside the border in Hauran.
In Lebanon, more and more political figures, encouraged by Walid Jumblatt’s recent remarks, are voicing concern about Syria. In talks with Western diplomats, even Prime Minister Najib Miqati, reputed to be a business partner of Assads, has voiced “reservations” about “the wisdom of the iron-fist policy” in Damascus.
For its part, Baghdad is beginning to show concern about the Syrian conflict spilling over into Iraqi territory. Few Iraqi leaders feel much affection for a despot who, for years, did everything to foment trouble in Iraq. Leaders of new Iraq did not love the Assad clan in the best of its days. They would be less likely to do so when, and if, Assad survives by massacring his people and becoming a pariah.Syria is also being shut out of the Arab World. In unprecedented moves, the usually anaemic Arab League has built a strong position in support of the Syrian revolution. The Assads may also be losing support from Israel. Since 1970, the Israeli elite have regarded the Syrian regime, dominated by the Nusairi minority, as a barrier against Islamists winning power by appealing to the Sunni majority. The theory was that Israel is safer when its neighbors are ruled by minorities. The theory was always daft. Today, it is also out of sync with reality. The world has changed and the Syrian uprising is not a sectarian phenomenon. Israel has no interest in backing a losing horse.
In Syria, despotism is heading for the exit. The real issue is how to organize the exit to minimize the cost in human lives. That is the question that al-Muallem, and technocrats like him, must contemplate.

The year of drafting constitutions
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
Whether this is the year of the Arab Spring or the Arab earthquake, we must acknowledge that it is also the year of drafting constitutions, whether in countries that have passed through a state of change, such as Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, or countries that are just around the corner from such change, like Syria and Yemen, or even those that have simply undertaken political reforms, such as Morocco and Jordan.
With this change, our region is witnessing a futile debate about the drafting of constitutions, and who is authorized to compose them. Should they be written by the election winners, whether they are Islamists, conservatives, or Liberals? When I say this is a “futile” debate, this is because it focuses on specific points indicating systematic errors, rather than wider social ones. So today we hear that if the Islamists are the victors in Tunisia, or Egypt, or even Libya and elsewhere, will they ensure women’s rights, pluralism, and freedoms? Of course there are no fundamental questions about whether the new constitution will guarantee the right to co-existence, the transfer of power, whether it will support development and the pursuit of science and knowledge, and whether it will ensure that freedom breeds innovation and eminence amongst nations, rather than screaming and name-calling.
We have seen, and continue to see, pointless debates about constitutions in some of our countries which are being devoured by sectarianism, such as Lebanon and Iraq, and even Egypt with regards to the rights of the Copts, and in accordance with the misleading concept of majority and minority. In Iraq, for example, if we acknowledge that the Shiites are the majority and the Sunnis are the minority, the majority here – i.e. the Shiites – does not exceed 50 percent, and the minority – i.e. the Sunnis – constitutes nearly 40 percent. So, how can you nullify nearly half of your society, and even subject them to your vision and your beliefs? This is impossible of course. In the Egyptian case, however small the Coptic proportion is in terms of percentages, the number of Copts is no less than 12 million people in any case, so how can you ignore this number? It is madness of course!Accordingly my advice for writing constitutions, and to those concerned in our region, is to read very carefully the following quote from the new book by former US president Bill Clinton (Back to Work), on the subject of the US constitution and the founding fathers who wrote it (page 28):
“In other words, our constitution was designed by people who were idealistic but not ideological. There’s a big difference. You can have a philosophy that tends to be liberal or conservative but still be open to evidence, experience and argument. That enables people with honest differences to find practical, principled compromise. On the other hand, fervent insistence on an ideology makes evidence, experience and argument irrelevant: If you possess the absolute truth, those who disagree are by definition wrong, and evidence of success or failure is irrelevant. There is nothing to learn from the experience of other countries. Respectful arguments are a waste of time. Compromise is weakness. And if your policies fail, you don’t abandon them; instead, you double down, asserting that they would have worked if only they had been carried to their logical extreme”.
In summary, those who write the constitution should be idealistic, or statesmen, and not ideological!

Suspicion in Iran that Stuxnet caused Revolutionary Guards base explosions
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report/November 18, 2011/ Is the Stuxnet computer malworm back on the warpath in Iran?
Exhaustive investigations into the deadly explosion last Saturday, Nov. 12 of the Sejil-2 ballistic missile at the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Alghadir base point increasingly to a technical fault originating in the computer system controlling the missile and not the missile itself. The head of Iran's ballistic missile program Maj. Gen. Hassan Moghaddam was among the 36 officers killed in the blast which rocked Tehran 46 kilometers away.
(Tehran reported 17 deaths although 36 funerals took place.)
Since the disaster, experts have run tests on missiles of the same type as Sejil 2 and on their launching mechanisms.
debkafile's military and Iranian sources disclose three pieces of information coming out of the early IRGC probe:
1. Maj. Gen. Moghaddam had gathered Iran's top missile experts around the Sejil 2 to show them a new type of warhead which could also carry a nuclear payload. No experiment was planned. The experts were shown the new device and asked for their comments.
2. Moghaddam presented the new warhead through a computer simulation attached to the missile. His presentation was watched on a big screen. The missile exploded upon an order from the computer.
The warhead blew first; the solid fuel in its engines next, so explaining the two consecutive bangs across Tehran and the early impression of two explosions, the first more powerful than the second, occurring at the huge 52 sq. kilometer complex of Alghadir.
3. Because none of the missile experts survived and all the equipment and structures pulverized within a half-kilometer radius of the explosion, the investigators had no witnesses and hardly any physical evidence to work from.
Iranian intelligence heads entertain two initial theories to account for the sudden calamity: a) that Western intelligence service or the Israeli Mossad managed to plant a technician among the missile program's personnel and he signaled the computer to order the missile to explode; or b), a theory which they find more plausible, that the computer controlling the missile was infected with the Stuxnet virus which misdirected the missile into blowing without anyone present noticing anything amiss until it was too late.
It is the second theory which has got Iran's leaders really worried because it means that, in the middle of spiraling tension with the United States and Israel or their nuclear weapons program, their entire Shahab 3 and Sejil 2 ballistic missile arsenal is infected and out of commission until minute tests are completed. Western intelligence sources told debkafile that Iran's supreme armed forces chief Gen. Hassan Firouz-Abadi was playing for time when he announced this week that the explosion had "only delayed by two weeks the manufacturing of an experimental product by the Revolutionary Guards which could be a strong fist in the face of arrogance (the United States) and the occupying regime (Israel)."
Iran needs time to thoroughly investigate the causes of the fatal explosion and convince everyone that the computer systems controlling its missiles of the Stuxnet malworm will be cleansed and running in no time just like the Natanz uranium enrichment installation and Bushehr atomic reactor which were decontaminated between June and September 2010.
If indeed Stuxnet is back, the cleanup this time would take several months, according to Western experts - certainly longer than the two weeks estimated by Gen. Firouz-Abadi.
Those experts also rebut the contention of certain Western and Russian computer pros that Stuxnet and another virus called Duqu are linked.
The head of Iran's civil defense program Gholamreza Jalali said this week that the fight against Duqu is "in its initial phase" and the final report "which says which organizations the virus has spread to and what its impacts are has not been complete yet. All the organizations and centers that could be susceptible to being contaminated are under control."

Friends turned foes
Cagil M. Kasapoglu, November 18, 2011
It has taken only two years for the friends to become foes. It was 2009 when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad shook hands with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul upon the signing of a visa-waiving deal between the two countries. Now, only two years later, Erdogan’s rhetoric of friendship and cooperation with Damascus has sharply changed, with him addressing the Syrian president during a speech in Istanbul on November 15, “You, Bashar! You are responsible for finding those who attacked the Turkish flag and holding them accountable for their actions.”
The attacks were carried out against the Turkish Embassy in Damascus and Turkish consulates in Aleppo and Latakia on November 12 in response to Ankara’s increasing criticism of the harsh crackdown Assad’s regime has leveled against the opposition movement in Syria since mid-March.
Because of the intensity of the Assad regime’s violence, Turkey has had to sacrifice its long-planned but short-lived “zero problem with neighbors” policy.
Turkey has for months acted as a safe haven for Syrian civilians seeking refuge from the violence. Among those who fled to Turkey’s southern city of Hatay, the Turkish Foreign Ministry is specifically protecting one particular figure, Colonel Riad al-Assad, the leader of the Free Syrian Army, a military grouping made up of defected Syrian soldiers. Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Selcuk Unal told NOW Lebanon that Colonel Assad was granted security guards by the ministry because he felt his life was still threatened by the Syrian regime even though he was on foreign territory.
According to Murat Yetkin, editor in chief of Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey is giving Syria a clear signal by hosting the dissidents on its territory.
This escalation recalls the recent past before the two countries’ cooperation, when Syria and Turkey came to the brink of a war in October 1998 due to Syria’s ties with the outlawed Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) and its sheltering the PKK leader within its borders.
“Everyone knows that Syria welcomed the PKK for almost 20 years. Anyone who wanted to meet the PKK leader in Damascus could do it,” Yetkin said. “But President Abdullah Gul warned Assad not to repeat the same mistake.”
According to Fehim Tastekin, foreign news analyst at Turkish daily Radikal, “The fact that Turkey hosts a dissident leader [Colonel Assad] within its borders makes the country a part of the armed process in Syria.”
On the other hand, Oytun Orhan, a researcher from the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies in Ankara, stressed that Turkey does not provide the dissidents with arms.
But Ankara long delayed taking more concrete steps to punish Syria, as the EU and US have done with sanctions, and as the Arab League has done by suspending Syria’s membership. Ankara has warned, however, that it was considering cutting off electricity supplies to its southern neighbor if the regime didn’t change course. Turkey provides up to 10 percent of Syria’s electricity supply. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, speaking at a conference in Istanbul on Thursday, ruled out any sanctions that would more deeply affect the Syrian people, including cutting water flow.
The possibility of imposing a buffer zone on the Syrian side of the border is also being discussed.
Tastekin stressed that “Turkey’s approach to sanctions traditionally follows UN decisions,” but he argued that the possible veto of Russia and China on the Security Council could push Turkey to impose unilateral sanctions. “But without the high flow of refugees, imposing a buffer zone would be considered the first step of foreign intervention, and Syria would see this as a cause of war,” Tastekin said, noting that Turkey wouldn’t take that risk.
According to Yetkin, sanctions have already been indirectly implemented by evacuating Turkish diplomatic staff from Syria, including the economic attaché, and the next step would be an end to money transfers and a decrease in trade. “As for military sanctions, over the last few months Turkey has increased its border patrol, but I don’t think a buffer zone is necessary at this point,” Yetkin added.
While Syria is driven further into isolation, its main ally in the region, Iran, has also begun to show signs of withdrawing its support from Damascus.
Tastekin argues that while Iran is not dependent to Syria, Tehran’s support is still a necessity for Assad.
“If the new Syrian opposition guarantees to safeguard and not threaten Iran’s interests, then Iran may easily change its policy. As a matter of fact, Iran has already begun to meet the opposition members.”Tension between Turkey and Syria is rising to levels last seen in 1998. However, Assad’s persistent use of violence and Turkey’s harboring of Syrian dissidents means that Ankara may find itself involved in the conflict in Syria whether or not it wants to stay out of it.

Canadian Foreign Minister Mr. Baird to Visit United Arab Emirates and Kuwait to Discuss Regional Peace and Security
(No. A/92 – November 18, 2011) Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird will travel to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait this week to underscore Canada’s commitment to working with regional partners to help build strong democracies that respond to the needs and interests of their citizens.
In the UAE, Minister Baird will attend the Sir Bani Yas Forum, a gathering of 19 foreign ministers, heads of governments, business leaders and decision makers who will discuss critical challenges for peace and security in the region. In Kuwait, Minister Baird will participate in the G8-Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative Forum for the Future and engage his counterparts on a range of economic and social development issues. Minister Baird will also highlight Canada’s support for the establishment of an institute to study gender in order to advance the equality and empowerment of women.
Minister Baird will hold a media teleconference to conclude his trip on November 22, 2011 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Event: Media teleconference
Date: Tuesday November 22, 2011
Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
Media representatives wishing to participate in this media teleconference should dial 1-877-413-4814 (Canada and the United States toll-free) or 613-960-7526. The access code is 2486514.
To access photos of Minister Baird’s trip, consult Minister of Foreign Affairs John Baird: Photo Galleries on Flickr.
For more information, please contact:
Foreign Affairs Media Relations Office
Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada
613-995-1874
Follow us on Twitter: @DFAIT_MAECI

Can Syria's president survive?
By Laura Smith
(CNN) -- Syria's President Bashar al-Assad looks more isolated with each passing day as his regime continues a bloody eight-month crackdown on pro-democracy protests.
His Arab neighbors signaled their displeasure with him this week by suspending Syria from the Arab League, a stinging blow for a nation that sees itself at the heart of Arab concerns. Jordan's King Abdullah went a step further, telling the BBC he would step down if he were al-Assad, an unusually blunt assessment that followed Western calls for al-Assad to go.
And Turkey, formerly an important ally and trading partner, threatened to cut off electricity supplies to Syria as the European Union moved this week to extend sanctions against more members of al-Assad's circle.
This week, the conflict inside Syria entered a new era when army defectors attacked pro-government targets. That ratcheted up the pressure even more -- the Russian foreign minister was widely quoted as saying attacks on government buildings in Syria resembled "civil war."
So can al-Assad cling to power? Or will he become the fourth leader forced from office in the Arab Spring, following in the footsteps of ousted leaders of Egypt, Libya and Tunisia?
Analysts say that the odds are stacked against Syria's president.
Steven A. Cook, Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said it is hard to predict what might come next for al-Assad -- but the pressure is on.
Syria increasingly isolated
8 months of violence in Syria
New deadline issued to Syria "The kind of traditional support he had externally is clearly crumbling," Cook said. "His prospects this week are worse than they were last week."
Emile Hokayem, senior fellow for regional security at the Bahrain office of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, thinks it highly unlikely al-Assad will hang on to power.
Three main factors will likely contribute to the downfall of Syria's president after 11 years in power, he said.
One is that he has lost legitimacy in the eyes of his own people. "It's hard to see how he would recover his legitimacy after killing almost 4,000 of his countrymen," said Hokayem. The United Nations puts the toll of deaths at well over 3,500 since protests began.
Second is the economy, as sanctions imposed by the West and Turkey start to bite. This matters, said Hokayem, because al-Assad may struggle to keep the support of the country's urban and business elites in Damascus and Aleppo if the economy is failing.
The third factor is security, despite al-Assad's mobilization of the military. Unlike previous challenges to the al-Assad regime, "this time it's the Syrian people leading it and very clearly regime change is their goal and they are not going to accept anything less," Hokayem said.
Shashank Joshi, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI), also doubts al-Assad will survive -- but says it is far from clear what might follow.
The Arab League's decision to suspend Syria, after Damascus failed to abide by a peace deal that had been brokered earlier with the 22-nation league, signals a shift in views that would have looked extremely unlikely even a month ago, he says.
The regime's military is also increasingly over-extended as those fighting against it find footholds in Lebanese and Turkish soil, he said.
Turkey might also choose to intervene more directly, perhaps by creating a buffer zone along its long border with Syria or providing weapons to the rebels, he said.
At this point, descent into civil war could be as likely a scenario as a clean change of regime at the top, he said.
Nonetheless, Joshi cautioned against thinking the 46-year-old's grip on power will be loosened immediately, pointing to the example of Iraq's former dictator, Saddam Hussein.
In 1991, he said, Hussein had just lost a major war, had two no-fly zones, U.N. sanctions and an oil embargo imposed on his country, was facing an enormous Shia uprising in the south, and endured overwhelming diplomatic isolation.
"And yet he survived for 12 years," Joshi said. "Regimes that are used to being isolated, that are used to being under sanctions and under pressure, can be extremely resilient."
Joshi also points out that while al-Assad may well be forced out, that doesn't necessarily mean the regime will fall with him.
Bashar al-Assad is not as well entrenched as was his father, the late President Hafez al-Assad, who ruled with an iron fist for three decades -- and it's possible other members of his ruling Alawite sect might decide to throw their hat in with his brother Maher, an army commander, or parts of the military instead, Joshi said.
"They might even decide to get rid of Bashar al-Assad to save themselves, and portray it as a concession, or compromise," he said.
He cites the example of Egypt, where the Arab Spring uprising may have forced President Hosni Mubarak from power in February but the military leadership has not yet handed over power to a democratically elected government.
Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center, also predicts that al-Assad will eventually go -- but that his regime will cling on for as long as possible, with Syria following the example of Libya rather than that of Tunisia, where ousted President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia.
Shaikh sees "the makings of a very powerful coalition" lined up against al-Assad, uniting the Arab nations, Turkey, the United States and Europe, which could move "quite forcefully" to sanctions.
And al-Assad has few friends to whom he can turn for help.
One key question is how long Syria can still count on the support of Russia, a historic ally and a major arms supplier to Damascus.
Moscow, which sold $3.8 billion of weapons to Syria last year -- 10% of its total arms sales, is "giving a lifeline" to al-Assad at the moment, said Shaikh, largely by delaying international action.
If Moscow opposes efforts to impose U.N. Security Council sanctions on Syria, as anticipated, international efforts to present a unified stance -- as on NATO action to protect civilians in Libya -- will be thwarted.
"The same action can be viewed as a just war or an act of imperial aggression depending on whether Russia allows a U.N. resolution to be passed," Joshi said.
Germany, France and Britain will hand in a draft U.N. resolution Thursday condemning the Syrian government's actions, a German diplomatic spokesman in New York told CNN on Wednesday. Diplomats from Arab countries are considering co-sponsoring the resolution.
An attempt this week by a Syrian opposition group to persuade Russian officials to shift their position and demand al-Assad's resignation appears to have gone nowhere, with Moscow instead reiterating a call for peaceful dialogue to resolve the situation.
China also has a history of opposing U.N action but appears at the moment to be hedging its bets on Syria, probably in the interests of stability in the region, Joshi added.
Iran has in the past few days given a strong statement of support for al-Assad, Shaikh of the Brookings Doha Center said, but Tehran may still in the end be pragmatic and seek to build ties with the Syrian opposition.
Perhaps the biggest danger ahead, the analysts say, is that whether al-Assad goes or not, Syria is teetering on the brink of civil war, as opposition elements such as the Free Syrian army turn to arms to combat pro-government forces.
Such violence lessens the chance of a peaceful resolution to the uprising and smooth shift to democracy -- and will undoubtedly lead to greater loss of life.
"We are entering into a new phase now in the Syrian situation," said Shaikh. "We are seeing a greater militarization.
"I think the window for an orderly transition is over and now it will be a mixture of international pressure and whatever support is given to these protesters and even those fighting against the regime.
"The main game for the foreseeable future will focus on the protection of civilians, and measures to ensure that, as we saw in the Libyan case."

Syria wants amendments to Arab monitoring plan
CAIRO Nov 18 (Reuters) - Syria has asked for amendments to a plan to send Arab League observers to Syria to assess the situation there where troops are cracking down on anti-government protests, the League chief said on Friday. The Syrian request is being studied, the League said. The pan-Arab body based in Cairo has demanded an end to bloodshed and called for monitors to be sent to Syria as part of an Arab initiative aimed at ending the violence and starting talks between the government and the Syrian opposition. The League suspended Syria this week. It has also drawn up a plan with civil society groups for a 500-strong fact-finding team that will include military personnel. Damascus had said it welcomed a League-backed mission whatever the make-up. League chief Nabil Elaraby said in a statement he had received a letter from Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem "including amendments to the draft protocol regarding the legal status and duties of the monitoring mission of the Arab League to Syria" agreed by a League ministerial council on Wednesday.
"These amendments are now under study," the statement quoted Elaraby as saying. He said the Syrian request was made in a letter received on Thursday evening.
The League has threatened sanctions if Syria does not heed by the end of the week the Arab peace plan that entails a military pullout from around restive Syrian cities and towns.
France and Turkey called on Friday for more international pressure on Syria to end the violent crackdown on opponents of President Bashar al-Assad, while activists said security forces shot dead five people protesting after weekly prayers. (Writing by Edmund Blair; Editing by Jon Hemming)

Syria and South Africa
Reuters/18 November/11
Owen Bennett Jones introduces insight, wit and analysis from correspondents around the world. In this edition, our diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus asks what the manoeuvring over Syria tells us about the new shape of the world, while Gareth Armstrong delves into the tangled history of the town of Mafikeng.
A new paradigm for crisis management. Anti-government mass actions in Syria began in March this year and so far the protestors have failed to achieve a breakthrough. Some of the country's government officials now believe that they have seen off the threat to those in power in Damascus. But many protestors now feel that if they stop demonstrating, the regime will arrest them one by one and possibly kill them. And so the stalemate continues at home - while in the Middle East and internationally, the country's status plummets. BBC Diplomatic Correspondent Jonathan Marcus has been wondering what the response to Syria can tell us about where real power lies.
Mafeking? Mafikeng? Mahikeng? The town still usually known as Mafikeng has had its share of historic reverses. At the very beginning of the 20th Century it saw one of the great military victories of the British Empire and its mythology - the Relief of Mafeking, during the Second Boer War, which so elated Britain and made Robert Baden-Powell into a national hero. But it's changed hands several times since, too; it was for a while the administrative capital of what's now Botswana, when it was a British territory called Bechuanaland; then living through the earlier stage of the apartheid era as a part of South Africa, and then behing handed over to the so-called "independent homeland" (in reality a puppet Potemkin state) of Boputhatswana in the final days of apartheid. Gareth Armstrong visited the town recently and found that despite its turbulent past, it's now a place blessedly free from some of the social tensions which swirl around it.

France-Turkey rivalry over Syria
BERİL DEDEOĞLU
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-263189-france-turkey-rivalry-over-syria.html
There is no doubt that the entire world is worried about what is going on in Syria. There is a growing concern, not only for humanitarian reasons, but also because of states' differing concerns for their own national interests. In this context, analyzing two particular actors' actions on Syria can be pretty instructive.
One of the countries most involved in the Syrian issue is Turkey. Syria's northern neighbor is worried first, for understandable reasons, about its own security, but also about the future of its relations with several neighboring Middle Eastern countries. Turkey's current policy on Syria is to support the opponents in their fight against the repressive Syrian government and hope that if the Muslim Brotherhood, which seems to have become the most influential opposition movement against the Bashar al-Assad regime, does accede to power, they will have a friendly policy toward Turkey. The present situation in Syria also raises several questions in Ankara about the future of the Kurds and non-Muslim populations in Syria. In order to accelerate the transition in the region, which appears inevitable now, Turkey seems to accept the idea of a no-fly zone in northern Syria to provide a safe haven for the opposition and to reinforce security at the Turkish border.
Turkey's growing role in supporting the opposition is in general endorsed by the EU, the US and the Arab League. Even Russia has remained quiet about it. Moscow must be aware that Assad's mistakes provide a good excuse to the West to intervene in Syria. While forging its policy toward Syria, Turkey is particularly careful about Iran, too. It should be noted that a no-fly zone will reduce Tehran's ability to assist the Assad regime.
The second country eager to do something about Syria is France. Syria has always been considered by Paris as a gateway to the Middle East. France, too, supports Assad's opponents, however, different groups than Turkey supports. France would prefer, rather than the Muslim Brotherhood, a secular figure (which means without Sunni references) to replace Assad. Because France is worried enough with what's going on in Tunisia, that's why it is recommending the Egyptian transition model for Syria. France counts on the US's assistance for this model as it claims that these “other opponents” are better for Israel's security than a Syria governed by the Muslim Brotherhood.
The problem is that the Muslim Brotherhood is quite disturbed by France's interference; however they are, at this moment, incapable of fighting against other opposition groups. Nevertheless, the split in the opposition reduces the possibility of having a stable Syria after the end of the current regime. Besides, it stimulates an unproductive rivalry between France and Turkey.
For some time France has opposed Turkey's policies in every domain, from Turkey's EU accession bid to Ankara's regional policies. When French officials talk about cooperation with Turkey, which is not frequent, they are content with asking Turkey to facilitate France's entry to the Middle East. Turkey's persistent answer to that is “I'll go there myself and I will not let you accompany me.” A similar dispute exists over Cyprus and Georgia (and in the Caucasus in general), too, and rather than looking for ways to really cooperate, France and Turkey have chosen to antagonize each other through economic and political crises in third countries.
Turkey would be more open to cooperation if it was convinced that France doesn't simply want to use Turkey but rather to work together with it for mutual benefit. France needs to clarify its decisions about Turkey as soon as possible because both countries' choices will have serious consequences for the future of the Syrian people.