LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِJUNE 29/2011

Bible Quotation for today
The Good News According to John 14/1-7: “Don’t let your heart be troubled. Believe in God. Believe also in me. 14:2 In my Father’s house are many homes. If it weren’t so, I would have told you. I am going to prepare a place for you. 14:3 If I go and prepare a place for you, I will come again, and will receive you to myself; that where I am, you may be there also. 14:4 Where I go, you know, and you know the way.” 14:5 Thomas said to him, “Lord, we don’t know where you are going. How can we know the way?” 14:6 Jesus said to him, “I am the way, the truth, and the life. No one comes to the Father, except through me. 14:7 If you had known me, you would have known my Father also. From now on, you know him, and have seen him.”

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
The Syrian regime is facing a great predicament/By Tariq Alhomayed/June 28/11
New Opinion: The right to say no/Daily Star/28June/11
Nasrallah has no Facebook/Hanin Ghaddar/June 28/11
Syria and Russia/Hazem Saghiyeh/June 28/11
And Syria/By: Hussain Abdul Hussain/28 June/11
Let the flotilla go/Haaretz Editorial/June 28/11
Hezbollah and Syria: Who abandoned who?/By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashid/June 28/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for June 28/11
Patriarch calls for dealing positively with new government/Now Lebanon
Future bloc warns against renouncing STL/Now Lebanon
Lebanon among U.S. human trafficking blacklist/AP/Daily Star
Iran unveils underground missile silo, poises for US-Turkish attack on Syria. Iron Dome for Haifa/DEBKAfile
Netanyahu to Abbas: Accept Israel as Jewish state - it's a basic demand for peace/Haaretz
Lebanon braces for indictment/The Daily Star
STL: Judicial Procedures Not Bound by Timeframes, Mirza: I Haven’t Received Any Document/Naharnet
International Criminal Court decision to arrest Gadhafi met with jubilation/Daily Star
Mirza, Qortbawi Deny Judiciary Received Hizbullah Spy Ring File /Naharnet
U.N. Security Council Votes for New Sudan Peacekeeping Force/Naharnet
U.S. Lawmaker Kucinich on 'Fact-finding' Visit to Lebanon, Syria /Naharnet
Assad Meets U.S. Lawmaker, Talks of People's Legitimate Demands /Naharnet
Policy statement lingers as pressure mounts/The Daily Star
Policy Statement Committee Delays Discussing STL Clause Pending 'Consensus Formula' /Naharnet
Iran unveils underground missile silo, poises for US-Turkish attack on Syria. Iron Dome for Haifa/DEBKAfile
Lebanon failing prisoners in Syria: activists/Daily Star
Israel fears Gaza flotilla activists may try to kill IDF soldiers/Haaretz
Jumblatt: The prisoner mentality is over/The Daily Star
Phalange Holds Govt. Responsible for Consequences of Failing to Abide by Int'l Commitments /Naharnet
Hezbollah relocating weapons from Syria to Lebanon, Antoine Saad says/Now Lebanon
2 UN troops wounded in attack by south Lebanon residents/Daily Star
Lebanon's Arabic press digest - June 28, 2011/Daily Star
Further 200 Irish troops join peacekeeping force/Daily Star
Interior minister denies preventing Rifi from leaving Lebanon/The Daily Star

Interior minister denies preventing Rifi from leaving Lebanon
June 28, 2011/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: The interior minister Tuesday denied reports that he had prevented Internal Security Forces chief Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi from leaving Lebanon. “This report is not true,” an official at the Interior Ministry told The Daily Star. He was commenting on a report published Tuesday by Al-Akhbar newspaper in which it said Interior Minister Marwan Charbel had asked Rifi not to leave the country “during this sensitive period.”Al-Akhbar said Rifi was scheduled to attend a security conference in Paris. It did not elaborate. Rifi’s office would not comment on the report when contacted by The Daily Star.

Lebanon among U.S. human trafficking blacklist
June 28, 2011 /Associated Press
WASHINGTON: The Obama administration is expanding the number of countries that may face U.S. sanctions for not doing enough to combat human trafficking. In its annual Trafficking in Persons report released on Monday, the State Department identified 22 nations as failing to meet minimum international standards to curb the scourge, which claims mainly women and children as victims. That's up from 13 in 2010. Another 41 countries were placed on a "watch list" that could lead to sanctions unless their records improve. Among the countries on the blacklist are Cuba, Iran, Myanmar and North Korea along with frequent U.S. foes Libya, Zimbabwe and Venezuela. Others include Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Yemen. The report also cited six nations for using child soldiers and not taking steps to end the practice.

Iran unveils underground missile silo, poises for US-Turkish attack on Syria. Iron Dome for Haifa
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report/June 27, 2011
Iran's big Great Prophet Mohammad War Games 6 was launched Monday, June 27, ahead of a Turkish operation against Syria's Assad regime which is anticipated by its military and Revolutionary Guards chiefs. debkafile reports Tehran expected the Turkish army to have US air and naval support in case of Iranian reprisals against them both. On Day One of the exercise, Iran unveiled its first underground missile silo immune to air strikes. It held what looked like a Shahab-3 ballistic missile. Israel has responded to Iran's military exercise and the spiraling regional tension by positioning one of its new Iron Dome rocket interceptor batteries in the northern city of Haifa.Last week, Iranian warships and submarines deployed in the Red Sea tracked the movements of two big US aircraft carriers, the USS Enterprise and USS George H. W Bush, which crossed each other in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on June 21 heading in opposite directions through this strategic chokepoint between the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean. The USS Enterprise, the world's largest aircraft carrier, was on its way from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean via the Red Sea and Suez Canal, while the USS George H.W. Bush, the US Navy's newest carrier with the greatest fire power of any of its warships, left the Mediterranean and headed in the opposite direction for the Persian Gulf with a crew of 9,000 and 70 fighter bombers. On the same day, Iranian naval surveillance picked up the arrival of the Los Angeles-class USS Bremerton nuclear-powered attack submarineoff Bahrain opposite Iran.
Strategists in Tehran see danger in these crisscross movements by US war fleets. According to our military sources, the Enterprise, which is older, slower and has less fire power than the Bush, was moved to the Mediterranean because there it is supported by American air bases scattered across western and central Europe, whereas the Bush was consigned to waters opposite Iranian shores because it is virtually a single-vessel fighting machine capable of operating without support.
The Iranian exercise has two primary objectives:
1. To spread Iran's ballistic missiles to their maximum operational extent in support of Iran's signals to Washington and Ankara in the past two weeks warning that an attack on Syria by a US-backed Turkish or NATO force would spark Iranian missile reprisals against Turkish and US military targets on Turkish soil and other parts of the Middle East.
2. Iran has fanned its fighting forces out across the country, with the densest concentrations on its Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea coasts, ready to repel any American attack that might follow an Iranian missile assault on US, Turkish or allied targets.
The ground-air-naval exercise is scheduled to last 10 days – unusually long for a military drill – so that Iran stands ready for a decision in Washington and/or Ankara to attack Syria.
The announcement of the exercise by Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force commander Gen. Amir-Ali Hajizadeh Sunday, June 26, made Tehran's intentions clear: He said the exercise was being staged in response to the "growing US military presence in the region" and noted that the missiles practiced would include the Saijil and the Fateh 110.
He did not need to spell out the facts that the Saijil-2 has a range of 2,000 kilometers and can reach any point in the Middle East and further - up to the Black Sea region, for instance, where US air and naval units are posted; or that the improved Fateh 110 has been supplied to Syria and Hizballah for use against Israel. Iran would expect to be joined by both in any military flare-up.

Netanyahu to Abbas: Accept Israel as Jewish state - it's a basic demand for peace
Haaretz/ Netanyahu on Monday implored Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to accept the existence of Israel as a Jewish state, calling it a "basic demand" for achieving peace in the region. "I stood before my people and said I would accept a Palestinian state," Netanyahu told a Jewish Agency Board of Trustees meeting in Jerusalem, in remarks carried by Army Radio. "Now President Abbas must stand before his people and say, 'I accept a Jewish state'." Netanyahu directly addressed Abbas in this plea, imploring the Palestinian president: "Just say these words – 'I accept a Jewish state'. It is a basic demand for peace." The prime minister's comments came a day after Palestinian officials said that the Palestinian Authority had deplotyed delegations to make the rounds of nearly a dozen countries to try to drum up more support for their bid to have the United Nations recognize a Palestinian state. Palestinian officials will visit Canada, Australia, New Zealand and several other countries that have not yet endorsed the Palestinian plan for recognition, said Hana Amireh, a member of the Palestine Liberation Organization's decision-making Executive Committee. Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad Malki said all Palestinian ambassadors would meet in Madrid in early July to discuss how to approach all-important European Union member states, whose support would be crucial to giving the plan diplomatic heft. Foreign Minister Riad Malki said Palestinian ambassadors had been instructed not to be absent from their offices or take vacations "because of the importance of the coming period." The statehood campaign was born out of the long deadlock in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and the Palestinian conviction that Netanyahu's government is not serious about making peace. On Sunday, the West Bank Palestinian leadership formally decided to seek UN recognition in September of a state in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem

The Syrian regime is facing a great predicament
28/06/2011/By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/The Assad regime has allowed the opposition to meet in a hotel Damascus to discuss the situation in the country, its future, and the future of reform there. Yet the doubts surrounding this step are sizeable, and justified. The meeting comes with the approval of the regime, so is this meeting a lifeline for the regime, or is it merely an attempt to divide the opposition internally? I am convinced that the Assad regime is trying to find a way out of its impasse, both internally and externally, using all its tricks. This becomes clear especially when considering that none of the regime's promises, since the outbreak of the uprising, have been implemented. To understand the Syrian regime's tactics, we must be aware of an important point; the Assad regime also resorted to the opposition in 2002 after coming to power. President al-Assad met one day with a leading dissident, asking for the opposition to meet and provide a road map, or proposals for reform, which they deemed necessary for the country. Subsequently, the Syrian opposition met and drafted proposals, first and foremost the elimination of government corruption. The proposals were then handed over to President al-Assad, but what was the result? The result was that members of the opposition were imprisoned, including the dissident whom al-Assad requested a meeting with. Some of them were released from prison in 2005, and at this time the President used them to consolidate his latest message, that he wanted the legitimacy enjoyed by his father within Syria, and he wanted to appear before the Syrians as a man of reform and development, and not just as a president who inherited his position. Today the regime is using the opposition again, not because it believes in reform and the legitimate demands of the Syrian citizens – if it believed that then it would not continue with the murder, repression, arbitrary detention and displacement – but rather the regime is using the internal opposition these days to give itself legitimacy outside Syria. The regime also tried to incense the Turks across the border, along the lines of its provocation policy which it has mastered externally. But, as we said that time, the regime was not successful with the strategy of "I'll do this and take that". On a weekly basis the international community struck Syria with the hammer of sanctions, leaving only its petroleum exports. If the regime continues to stand, rumors suggest that this sector could be next. Therefore, the predicament of the al-Assad regime today is sizeable for many reasons, most importantly, consider what if the opposition proposes all it wants, and the international community persists? The demonstrations last Friday were the same as they are every Friday, continuing to reject the regime, whilst the regime countered this as usual with killing and torture. What is the stance of the opposition now? What is the position of the regime and the masses which reject it, along with the opposition which met in a hotel? Here is a predicament for the regime which is hard to resolve, both internally and externally. It is the regime itself which described the opposition as foreign conspirators. It is the regime itself which has forced the father to abandon his sons, and the son to abandon his father. It is suffice here to consider the father of the murdered child Hamza al-Khatib, who went on to praise the Syrian President in a depressing manner. After that how can the world believe the Syrian account of events, especially as nothing tangible has been achieved on the ground?
In summary: the regime is in a very difficult position, by virtue timing and its structure: If it carries out reform, it will fall, if the status quo remains, it will fall, and if it deviates further, it will also fall. Thus the regime is facing a great predicament, and let's see what happens in the coming days.

Hezbollah relocating weapons from Syria to Lebanon, Antoine Saad says
June 28, 2011 /MP Antoine Saad said on Tuesday that Hezbollah is publicly relocating its weapons from Syria to Lebanon for fear of the growing Syrian opposition.
Saad told Al-Mustaqbal newspaper that “the overland transfer is taking place day and night and without any control,” adding that the weapons are being sent to South Lebanon, Baalbeck, Hermel and the southern suburbs of Beirut - Hezbollah’s stronghold. “These weapons are to be used against Israel in the future, so Hezbollah needs ammunition to be able to resist in a long term war,” added Saad. “Transferring the weapons indicates that there is a possibility that a war might break out between Hezbollah and Israel.” Commenting on Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun’s speech, Saad voiced his hope that the atmosphere created by the recent critique against ousted PM Saad Hariri does not resemble the same atmosphere that preceded the assassination of late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Asked about the new cabinet’s performance, Saad said that the newly-formed cabinet was “a blow to Lebanon’s political life” and “a coup against the Doha Agreement.” As for the expected ministerial statement, Saad said that March 8 coalition will not issue a statement that reflects what the Lebanese people want especially regarding the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) and Lebanon’s commitment toward the international community. Saad also expected that the indictment will be issued before the new government’s ministerial statement. The new Lebanese cabinet—headed by Prime Minister Najib Mikati—was formed on June 12 after almost five months of deliberations between the March 8 parties. Before bringing down Saad Hariri’s cabinet in January, Hezbollah had been pressing him to disavow the STL, which is probing the 2005 assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri and likely to implicate members of the Shia group. Meanwhile, the Syrian government is engaged in a deadly crackdown on protesters who since March have been demanding the end of 48 years of rule by the Baath Party, which is controlled by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. -NOWLebanon

STL: Judicial Procedures Not Bound by Timeframes, Mirza: I Haven’t Received Any Document
Naharnet/Future News television on Monday quoted the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon as saying that “judicial procedures are not bound by timeframes and only these procedures can define what to be published and when.”Meanwhile, Lebanon’s State Prosecutor Saeed Mirza, who paid a sudden visit to the Grand Serail on Monday, denied to Future News that he had received any document from the STL. “There is no decisive information on the release date of the indictment,” Mirza told the TV network. Earlier on Monday, the Central News Agency quoted a judicial source as saying that the recent summoning of STL’s Lebanese judges to The Hague, where the court is based, had nothing to do with the indictment’s release date. The judges traveled to The Hague, the source added, to attend a session for the STL Appeals Chamber that will look into an appeal filed by Maj. Gen. Jamil Sayyed against a ruling by Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen to give him partial access to his case file. The judicial source, however, did not rule out the possibility that the indictment might be released soon, noting that the session on Sayyed’s appeal “requires the participation of the Lebanese judges.” Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Anbaa has recently quoted sources as saying that “Judges Afif Shamseddine, Walid Akoum, Micheline Braidi and Ralph Riachi” had been summoned to The Hague.

Lebanon braces for indictment
June 28, 2011/By Patrick Galey/ The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The U.N.-backed court probing the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri is poised to release its indictment within a matter of days, sources told The Daily Star Monday. A source familiar with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon said that while the court had been expected to provide Lebanese authorities with an indictment Monday, there had been a short delay and its release was imminent. A spokesperson for the tribunal said that the indictment was being worked upon and would be issued independent from events in Lebanon, whose government is still trying to work out how to deal with the STL in its forthcoming policy statement.
“The STL has no comment to make about the content of the indictment. The mandate of the STL is of a judicial nature,” the spokesperson said. “The integrity of the STL proceedings requires that legal considerations alone determine if and when the tribunal will make any announcement about the completion of the review process.”
A judicial source told The Daily Star that the indictment was set to publicly name individuals accused of murdering Hariri.
“The indictment will definitely be public: it will be announced in The Hague before it even reaches Lebanon, unless the STL requested from Lebanese authorities the arrest of some individuals secretly,” the source said. State Prosecutor Saeed Mirza met at the Grand Serail Monday with the Secretary General of the Lebanese Premiership Suheil Bouji, to inform him of the procedures the government should take once the indictment lands. Mirza’s arrival at the Serail during a ministerial committee meeting concerning the drafting of Cabinet’s policy statement aroused speculation that an indictment had been received, although this later proved premature.
At the Serail, Minister of State for Administrative Reform Mohammad Fneish suggested that the indictment’s released would precede the policy statement. “It seems that the tribunal [indictment] is coming to us first,” he said. Conflicting reports emerged Monday over the exact timing of the indictment, which has been altered twice by STL Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare since he initially presented the document to Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen in January. Pan Arab dailies Ash-Sharq al-Awsat and Al-Hayat ran reports Monday on the looming indictment submission, reporting that it was due in the next couple of days. Ash-Sharq al-Awsat, citing well-informed sources, said that the indictment would name five Hezbollah members, an assertion the court refused to be drawn on. The STL has polarized opinion in Lebanon since its inception in 2009. Last week, Minister of State Salim Karam told The Daily Star that no mention would be made of the court in the new Cabinet’s policy statement, although Lebanon agreed with the U.N. back in 2007 to cooperate with the tribunal, including putting up its share of the running costs.
Al-Hayat wrote that Lebanese tribunal judges and staff had left Beirut ahead of the indictment as a precautionary measure. However, the judicial source said the departure was unrelated to the indictment and that staff were summoned to The Hague concerning “requests related to [former general] Jamil al-Sayyed.” Sayyed was one of four pro-Syrian generals arrested in the immediate aftermath of Hariri’s assassination. He was held for four years, without charge, until Bellemare ordered the men’s release upon taking charge of the tribunal.
Sayyed maintains that his detention was illegal and politically motivated and has commenced proceedings with the court, which ruled that the ex-general was allowed to see tribunal documents relating to him. “The STL has decided to meet in The Hague to prepare a formal response to Sayyed’s complaints,” the source added. Former statesman Hariri was killed in a huge car bomb blast on Feb. 14, 2005, an act that prompted popular demonstrations leading to Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon after nearly three decades of military tutelage. Twenty-two others died in the attack

Policy statement lingers as pressure mounts
June 28, 2011 /By Hussein Dakroub, Hassan Lakkis/ The Daily Star
BEIRUT: A ministerial committee charged with drafting the government’s policy statement appeared to be in a race against time Monday amid reports that a U.N.-backed court’s indictment into the killing of statesman Rafik Hariri was imminent. The 12-member ministerial committee met Monday under Prime Minister Najib Mikati as backstage efforts were made to bridge the gap between Mikati and Hezbollah over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which is investigating Hariri’s 2005 assassination. Committee member Hezbollah’s Minister of State for Administrative Reform Mohammad Fneish, summed up the rift over the STL when he was asked about the fate of the article concerning the tribunal in the statement.
“It seems that the tribunal’s [indictment] is coming to us first,” Fneish told reporters jokingly after the meeting held at the Grand Serail. Sources told The Daily Star that the STL is poised to release its indictment. A source familiar with the STL said that while the court had been expected to provide authorities with a sealed indictment Monday, there had been a short delay and its release was imminent.
It was the committee’s fifth meeting since Mikati formed a 30-member Cabinet in which Hezbollah and its March 8 allies have a majority.
The committee was endeavoring to work out a formula acceptable to Mikati and the parties participating in the Cabinet on how to deal with the sensitive and thorny issue of the STL which has sharply divided the Lebanese into two rival camps: The Hezbollah-led March 8 camp which rejects the tribunal, and the March 14 camp which strongly supports it.
Information Minister Walid Daouk said the committee’s discussions have not yet reached the issue of the STL. “The ministerial committee continued its work. It discussed the amended version of the policy statement pertaining to telecommunications, tourism, environment, social issues, health coverage and strengthening the woman’s role in public life,” Daouk told reporters after the meeting. He said the committee will meet again Tuesday. Daouk also said that the absence of women in the Cabinet will be compensated by boosting their role in public departments. Ministerial sources said committee members were awaiting an agreement on how to include the STL article in the policy statement.
The committee will not discuss the STL article as long as an agreement on a certain formula has not yet gained the approval of the prime minister and the unanimity of its members, a ministerial source said. “Consultations and contacts on the STL issue are taking place outside the committee’s meetings,” the source said.
The source added that Mikati was waiting Monday night to receive a formula from Hezbollah which did not agree with the prime minister’s draft proposal presented in the past few days.
Committee member, Health Minister Ali Hasan Khalil, a political adviser to Speaker Nabih Berri, said he saw no difficulty in solving the problem over the STL. “It is not a difficult problem. A solution must be found to it,” he said. Fneish has acknowledged that there are at least two or three different viewpoints inside the Cabinet on the STL.
Hezbollah and its March 8 allies have called for an end to Lebanon’s cooperation with the STL, which they dismissed as “an American-Israeli project” designed to incite sectarian strife.
Mikati is coming under heavy pressure from the March 14 coalition and the U.S. and other Western countries to uphold the STL as the only means to uncover Hariri’s killers. Mikati, seeking to avoid a confrontation with the international community, was trying to find a formula acceptable to all the parties participating in the government. Mikati has reiterated Lebanon’s commitment to international obligations, including the STL and U.N. Resolution 1701 that ended the 2006 Israeli summer war against Lebanon.
Meanwhile, U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams reiterated U.N. expectations that the government’s policy statement will restate Lebanon’s commitment to its international obligations.
“We discussed many issues, including Security Council Resolution 1701 and I reiterated my expectation and the expectation of the secretary-general that the government will restate its full support and commitment to the full implementation of 1701 in its ministerial declaration,” Williams told reporters after meeting Mikati at the Grand Serail Monday.
“Prime Minister Mikati has expressed to me on several occasions his personal commitment to this resolution and to the work of the U.N. and of UNIFIL here in Lebanon and I warmly welcome his reiteration of this support,” Williams said. “I also restated the expectation of Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon that the government’s policy platform contain a clear commitment to all of Lebanon’s international obligations,” he added. Labor Minister Charbel Nahhas said he expected the drafting of the policy statement to be finished Thursday at the latest “because the issues [under discussion] have been crystallized.” He told the Voice of Lebanon radio station that the article on the STL has not been discussed yet by the ministerial committee because it is a sensitive issue. The Phalange (Kataeb) Party reaffirmed its support for the STL and warned the government against attempts to obstruct the tribunal’s work.
A statement issued after a meeting of the party’s political bureau, chaired by party leader Amin Gemayel, stressed that the tribunal was the “only chance to uncover the killers of martyrs.”
“Therefore, the tribunal cannot in any way be a subject of concessions or bargaining,” the statement said. It held the Lebanese government responsible for “any dereliction or attempts to shirk the state’s commitments toward the international tribunal.” “Any attempt to stop or obstruct the tribunal’s work in any form and failure to cooperate with the demands of the U.N. prosecutor general will be met by the party with all available democratic means,” the statement said.

Israel fears Gaza flotilla activists may try to kill IDF soldiers
By Barak Ravid/Haaretz
Senior officials in Jerusalem said Monday that Israel has received information that organizers of the Gaza flotilla may be bringing chemical substances on the ships to use against Israeli soldiers to prevent them from boarding the ships. The senior officials also said that Israel had been notified that several extremists among the Gaza flotilla participants had recently claimed that they intend on “shedding the blood of IDF soldiers.” Israel Navy forces approach one of six ships of an aid flotilla bound for Gaza on May 31, 2010.
Moreover, despite earlier reports, it seems that activists from the Turkish organization IHH, which was involved in the deadly IDF raid on the Mavi Marmara in last year’s Gaza flotilla, will be joining several of the ships sailing for Gaza as part of the flotilla. Israeli officials claim that two activists participating in the flotilla have connections to Hamas. They named the first one as Amin Abu Rashad, who they claim is one of the head Dutch organizers for the Gaza flotilla and had served in the past as the head of the Hamas’ Charitable Foundation in Holland. The foundation closed down following Dutch authorities’ probe into its involvement in funding terror activities. The second activist is Mohammed Ahmed Hanon, which Israel claims is a Hamas activist who stands at the head of the ABSPP, which is involved in transferring funds to terrorists.

Let the flotilla go
Haaretz Editorial
The term "flotilla" is understood in Israel as a declaration of war. This is the case with respect to the latest Gaza-bound flotilla, just as it was with the one that set off from Turkey in May 2010. Furthermore, due to unstable relations with Turkey, Israel is still feeling the repercussions of its deadly raid on that maritime convoy.
The latest flotilla, which has already begun heading toward the Gaza Strip and is scheduled to reach its shores Thursday, will apparently be far larger than the previous one. It will include about a dozen ships holding some 500 activists, along with food and medicine that is considered to be humanitarian aid for Gazans.
At first glance, there does not appear to be a practical reason to send the aid, since in the wake of the 2010 flotilla, Israel was compelled to lift many restrictions it had put in place as part of its brutal blockade, and Egypt has decided to open the Rafah crossing to civilians. Moreover, Israel has even offered to transfer the aid shipment to Gaza, as long as the ships don't dock there. At best, the flotilla's contribution to lifting the blockade is symbolic, in that it reminds the world that Israel's closure policy is still partially in effect, and that the population of Gaza remains under occupation. But the Israeli government imputes far greater significance to symbols than it does to wise policy. The government seems to be as frightened of the flotilla as one would think it would be of an attack by an armed naval fleet. It is preparing to keep the ships from reaching the Gaza coast as though it were preparing to fight an enemy seeking to infringe on Israeli sovereignty. It appears that even though a year has passed since the first flotilla fiasco, Israel is showing that it has learned just one lesson: the military lesson. As though better military preparation or training for specific scenarios are what will save Israel's honor. The country is not willing to give up a display of power, thereby no doubt contributing to inflating the flotilla's importance. Now trying to find ways to reconcile with Turkey, Israel would do well to avoid simultaneously finding new means to engage in conflict with countries whose activists will be on the Gaza-bound ships. A less fearful country would certainly have offered even to go as far as escorting the flotilla to the Gaza coast.
From Israel, we can at least demand that it let the flotilla get through to the Gaza Strip without once again endangering the country's position in the world.

Hezbollah and Syria: Who abandoned who?
27/06/2011/By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashid/Asharq Alawsat
Hezbollah's mission, since the group's establishment in 1982, has been extremely easy in that it has been limited to confronting Israel. This mission allowed Hezbollah to obtain Arab respect, Iranian funding, and local influence. However today Hezbollah finds itself in an extremely difficult situation; its enemies have multiplied and increased to the extent that Israel is now the least of their worries. More then half of the Lebanese people are against Hezbollah, whilst most Arabs are against them as well, and Syria seems to have abandoned them or at least distanced themselves from the Lebanese group.
The majority of Sunnis in Lebanon view Hezbollah with suspicion, or indeed hatred, because they believe that Hezbollah was responsible for the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, as well as for occupying areas of Beirut three years ago. In addition to this, at least half the Christian population of Lebanon oppose Hezbollah, demanding that it give up its arms, fearing that Hezbollah wants to establish an Islamic republic along the lines of the Islamic Republic of Iran. We must also not forget that the International Criminal Court [ICC] is carefully observing and investigating Hezbollah, and will prosecute some of its members on charges of assassinating Hariri.
However none of this can be compared to what Hezbollah will face in the future because the most dangerous challenge for Hezbollah today has come from an unexpected side, namely Syria. Syria has been Hezbollah's neighbor, ally, and protector for over 30 years, however the popular uprising spreading throughout Syria is witnessing the demonstrators openly chanting anti-Hezbollah slogans and accusing the Lebanese group of supporting the al-Assad regime in suppressing and even killing the demonstrators.
In the speech he gave a few days ago, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah tried to defend the Syrian regime, yet at the same time, his rhetoric seemed to suggest that he advocates the demonstrators' calls for reform. Nevertheless, this speech served only to further anger the Syrian people who regard Nasrallah as al-Assad's partner in suppressing them.
Doubts about the relationship between the oppressive Syrian security regime and the Hezbollah militia have been raised after the French Le Figaro newspaper published a report claiming that Hezbollah has moved weapons – that were previously being stored in Syria – to Lebanon's Bekaa valley. The French newspaper added that Hezbollah fears the Syrian regime being overthrown.
There can be no doubt that Hezbollah is very aware of what is happening in Syria, and is conscious that the al-Assad regime is now on the verge of collapse and may be overthrown. However I am not sure that Hezbollah would dare to shows its doubts over the possibility of the Syrian regime remaining in power by withdrawing secret weaponry [from Syria]. There are therefore two ways to explain the reports which emphasized the departure of trucks from Syria bound to Lebanon. Firstly, either al-Assad had finally decided to satisfy Israel and the US by abandoning Hezbollah and removing its arms and weaponry from Syrian soil in line with this new stance. The second way of explaining this is that Hezbollah is frightened that its weapons stores [in Syria] could be targeted by foreign countries, most likely Israel, exploiting the Syrian military and security chaos. This may explain the recent massacres spoken about by al-Assad, and the news reported by the official Syrian media about attacks outside of the framework of the uprisings.
Whether the al-Assad regime is overthrown or not, Hezbollah is now surrounded by enemies in Lebanon and is like an orphan after it has lost the geographic and political dimensions afforded to it by Syria. Therefore, just like any other Lebanese political party, Hezbollah should consider an equation that does not rely upon weapons.
Hezbollah's mentality of seeking to dominate Lebanon by force will be confronted and face severe challenges in the forthcoming stage. Hezbollah's pretext of confronting Israel has been removed since Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon 11 years ago. Since then, Hezbollah has transformed into an organization that serves Iran's interests with regards its battle to obtain nuclear weaponry and impose its influence on the region. Syria was playing the role of custodian and ally to Hezbollah, a role which it seems to have given up, even before the situation in Damascus is resolved one way or another.

Jumblatt: The prisoner mentality is over
June 28, 2011 /The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt said Monday that only free people will lead the liberation of the oppressed people in Palestine and the Arab world.
“The ordinary, modest and free citizen will prove to us that only free people will liberate oppressed people in Palestine or elsewhere,” Jumblatt told the audience at a class reunion organized by the American University of Beirut’s Alumni Association. “The difference between today and before is simple: There are no historic leaders who think for us, no superpowers, and the world is within our grasp through Facebook. An ordinary, modest Arab citizen with determination walked out to say, ‘I want my dignity and a different life not bound by one party or infallible leader.’” Criticizing those with a “prisoner mentality” who claim that a U.S. conspiracy is behind the popular uprisings in the Arab world, Jumblatt said that the technology revolution has put the world within the reach of ordinary people and fueled demands for freedom. “Sometimes decades pass and nothing happens, and then sometimes weeks pass and decades happen,” said Jumblatt, quoting Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin.
Jumblatt recalled the Lebanese civil war era as time of the “prisoner mentality,” as rival camps erected barriers to separate people. “All those factors destroyed the possibility of an open-minded mentality and led to barriers which later made our mentality [like that of a] prisoner,” he added. The 1975-90 Lebanese Civil War came to an end with the signing of the Taif Accord in 1989, which reformed Lebanon’s political system under the tutelage of Syria. Jumblatt said he had hoped he could make up for many of the past compromises he had approved, without specifying which decisions he regretted. Over the four-month course of a popular uprising against Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime, Jumblatt has repeatedly urged the Syrian leadership to swiftly implement promised reforms and refrain from resorting to force against opposition groups, for the sake of the country’s unity and stability.
The PSP leader has had a tumultuous relationship with Damascus over the past 30 years.
Jumblatt was an ally of Damascus for many years after the assassination of his father, Kamal Jumblatt, in 1977, but his relations with Syria begin to deteriorate in 2000. Ties were fully severed following the extension of the mandate of former President Emile Lahoud in 2004, which Jumblatt opposed. The assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005 led Jumblatt to publicly accuse the Syrian regime of the killing and during that time he also publicly blamed Damascus for his father’s death. Bloody clashes pitted PSP supporters against pro-Hezbollah militants in the Chouf region in May 2008, following the Cabinet’s decision to dismantle Hezbollah’s telecommunication network. After the clashes, however, Jumblatt began to realign with Syria, and its major ally, Hezbollah. Jumblatt fully withdrew from the March 14 coalition following the 2009 parliamentary elections, arguing that his alliance with March 14 political groups had been driven by necessity

And Syria!
By HUSSAIN ABDUL-HUSSAIN
 The Weekly Standard weekly newsletter
If Sir James Wolfensohn, the cofounder of Edward Said’s West-Eastern Divan Orchestra, doesn’t deserve to be honored at the American University of Beirut (AUB), then who does? Recently, the former World Bank chief found himself in the midst of controversy after AUB had announced that he would receive an honorary doctorate and deliver the June commencement address. Faculty members and students signed a petition in protest, arguing that honoring Wolfensohn “undermines AUB’s legacy in the struggle for social justice and its historical connection to Beirut, to Palestine and beyond.”
In a statement, an embarrassed AUB president Peter Dorman argued that Wolfensohn was “on record” for having “criticized Israeli military operations in the Palestinian territories,” and had extensive pro-Palestinian credentials. For instance, Wolfensohn resigned his position as quartet chief after the international boycott of the Hamas government in Gaza, and in 2007 he was rewarded with the Palestinian Authority's prize for excellence and creativity. Apparently AUB agitators have tougher standards than the PA.
The Ramallah-based Palestinian Campaign for the Academic and Cultural Boycott of Israel (PCACBI) was part of the campaign, as was Al Akhbar, a Hezbollah-affiliated newspaper where the anti-Wolfensohn crowd was given free rein to vent against the university for daring to honor him. On the other hand, another Beirut newspaper, the Daily Star, which has no ties to Hezbollah, was much more circumspect in its criticism of the boycott. One AUB professor, who felt compelled to comment without attribution, dismissed the campaign “as an ‘illusion of victory’ for the Palestinian cause, given what he termed the 'moderate' position on Israel often espoused by Wolfensohn.”
The problem of course is that Hezbollah, through its media outfits, is setting the ideological tone in Beirut these days—even on the campus of the American University in Beirut. Accordingly, AUB activists conveniently give Hezbollah allies a pass. For example, no one had any problem last year when the AUB awarded an honorary degree to comedian Doreid Lahham. Of late, Lanham has distinguished himself for his unwavering support for Syrian president Bashar Assad, even as the Damascus regime’s security forces have been targeting the unarmed peaceful Syrian opposition. AUB professors and students keen to protect “AUB’s legacy in the struggle for social justice” are in the headlines only when it comes to the Arab-Israeli conflict. When it comes to calling attention to the repression and violence of the Syrian regime, AUB's social justice advocates are nowhere to be found.
It appears that, for some, the long arm of Syria and Hezbollah extends even across the waters. Months before Dorman had to deal with the Wolfensohn issue, there was already some indication that the AUB president wasn’t the man to face down a campaign of intimidation. At an AUB alumni event in Washington in March, Dorman delivered a speech about the Arab Spring and avoided naming Syria—even as the mostly Lebanese crowd shouted, “And Syria!”
Hussain Abdul-Hussain is the Washington bureau chief of the Kuwaiti newspaper Alrai.

Dissidents openly call for democracy at Damascus meeting
June 27, 2011  /Now Lebanon
More than 100 dissidents heard calls for a peaceful transition to democracy at a public meeting in Syria's capital on Monday, which they said was unprecedented in five decades of Baath Party rule. The opposition figures, all of them independent of any party affiliation, gathered in a hotel in Damascus to discuss a way out of the deadly clashes between security forces and protesters that have rocked Syria since mid-March. "There are two ways forward -- the first a clear and non-negotiable move to a peaceful transition to democracy which would rescue our country and our people," opposition activist Munzer Khaddam told the meeting. "The alternative is a road that leads into the unknown and which will destroy everyone," he said.
"We are with the people and we, like them, have chosen the first path. Those who refuse to take it will go to hell." The president of the Syrian League for Human Rights, Abdel Karim Rihawi, stressed that the meeting was not intended to take the place of the "protesters in the street." "We will talk so that we can formulate a national strategy on how to end Syria's current crisis," he earlier told AFP. Anwar Bunni, a prominent human rights lawyer who has spent five years in Syrian jails, said it was the "first meeting of its kind at a public venue announced in advance." Bunni told AFP that opponents of President Bashar al-Assad would take part in the "national dialogue" he proposed last week only if peaceful demonstrations were authorized, political prisoners released, the opposition recognised and the use of force ended. The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says 1,342 civilians have been killed in the government's crackdown and that 342 security force personnel have also died.
-AFP/NOW Lebanon

New Opinion: The right to say no
June 27, 2011 /Now Lebanon
The spark that ignited the Syrian Arab awakening was arguably the arrest of 15 young boys from Daraa who had been spraying anti-regime graffiti. But a little-known part of this story was reported in the German weekly news magazine Der Spiegel. “Their fathers and the local sheikh went to the provincial intelligence chief, Atif Najib, a cousin of the president, to plead their cases, arguing that those arrested were just children. Forget them, Najib allegedly said, and send me your wives so that I can make more children for you.”
The comment was monstrous for many reasons, but it will particularly offend those who are fighting an archaic attitude still held in many corners of the Arab world that married women have little or no say in what is perceived as a marital obligation to have sex with her husband whenever he wants. Najib’s comments fall into the most hidebound part of this culture – a wife is a slave, period – but across the region many married women do live as sexual slaves to their husbands’ cruel demands, victims of marital rape that comes with the full blessing of the religious authorities.
Lebanon being Lebanon, it is not surprising that many women are campaigning for the ratification of a civil personal status law that allows them to seek redress for what is essentially domestic violence outside the religious courts, most of which do not see martial rape as a crime and will back the husband nine and a half times of out ten. Lebanon also being Lebanon, the Administration and Justice Parliamentary Committee has approved a draft law on domestic violence and other issues of personal freedom. But the opposition is massing its troops.
On Thursday Grand Mufti of the Lebanese Republic Sheikh Mohammad Rashid Qabbani chaired a meeting at Dar al-Fatwa after which the participants issued a statement rejecting the bill. Days earlier Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem weighed in with his party’s view on the matter, arguing that to consider forced marital sex as a crime was “a dangerous matter”…end of story.
According to Dar al-Fatwa, the proposed law actually harms Muslim women and denies them the rights granted to them by the Islamic judiciary. The participants went further, arguing that should such a law come into being, it would threaten to tear apart the very fabric of Lebanese family life. It was the thin end of a wedge that would see decent Lebanese Muslims descend into the inferno of Western morals and family values. It also lamented the fact that “health and social” institutions would become places of “complaint” rather than treatment. One assumes they mean it is one thing to complain of a bad back, but another to whine about being raped at home.
As they have done for centuries, the religious authorities live in fear of the secular alternative. No doubt they disapprove of civil marriage for the same reasons: that any union not made before God is easier to break, and that if such a union were to become legal, then the country would go to hell in a hand basket.
But just as the Arab awakening has seen the veil of political subjugation lifted from the eyes of millions of Arabs across the region, then surely the time has come for women to break free from the misogynistic attitudes that have at best kept them from fulfilling their potential and exercising their personal freedoms, and at worst have seen them condemned to lives of misery from abusive spouses with no legal recourse except a religious court.
The law is a necessary safety valve for Lebanon’s confessional system, one that from the day a person is born identifies him or her as belonging to a particular religion or sect. It is obscene to assume that everyone will choose to follow the letter of that faith’s law, and it is incumbent upon the state to create legislation to protect those who for whatever reason wish to follow a secular path. Lebanon has always prided itself on its liberal values and forward-thinking attitudes. Now is not the time to duck the issue.

Lebanon failing prisoners in Syria: activists
By Dana Khraiche/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Lebanon has not done enough to follow up on the potential release of Lebanese from Syrian prisons following the general amnesty declared by President Bashar Assad, activists said. Since May 31, Assad has issued two decrees of general amnesty, which include members of all political parties, yet no Lebanese prisoner has been released.
“The Lebanese government should demand the release of people who should be on a list [provided by the Syrian government],” Ghazi Aaz, president of NGO Support of Lebanese in Detention and Exile (S.O.L.I.D.E) told The Daily Star Monday.
“But they are waiting for the Syrians to decide who they would release and maintain in detention. This is a scandal,” he added.
It is not known exactly how many Lebanese nationals are in Syrian prisoners, but NGO estimates put the number at around 130.
Based on a judicial treaty signed between Lebanon and Syria in 1951 the two countries should inform each other when they arrest nationals of the other state, giving the name of the prisoner and the crime committed.
However, according to Aaz, Lebanon does not have such a list, meaning that the country lacks official information about Lebanese prisoners in Syria.
Wadih al-Asmar, secretary-general of the Lebanese Center for Human Rights accused the government of negligence in regards to Lebanese prisoners in Syria.
“There is great negligence regarding this issue,” Asmar said.
State prosecutor Saeed Mirza defended the government and said that Lebanon should not interfere in the legal procedures of other countries.
“We should not interfere in other countries’ affairs … we are not negligent and we know our responsibilities,” Mirza told The Daily Star. “The decree that has been announced by the Syrian president should be implemented by the Syrian authorities.”
On June 6, former Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar asked Mirza to look into whether Lebanese prisoners in Syria could benefit from the decree.
On June 18, Nasri Khouri, the head of the Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council, said that the decree included Lebanese prisoners and that the council was working with the Syrian government to obtain a list of these prisoners.
The release of Lebanese prisoners under Assad’s amnesty would also give NGOs and activists such as Aaz the opportunity to learn information about Lebanese political prisoners who are believed to be victims of enforced disappearance during the 1975-1990 Civil War. Lebanese NGOs say they have names of 545 people who went missing and are now in Syrian prisons.
“Practically speaking, any Lebanese person who would be released from Syrian prison would be a good source of information,” Aaz said. “They could probably give us information regarding Lebanese prisoners there and Syria might not let that happen.”
Both activists are also urging the government to investigate whether those who have been kidnapped and held in Syrian prisons are included in the general amnesty.
Although NGOs have a list of names of these prisoners, there are many obstacles preventing any real initiative from the Lebanese government.
“It is unsuitable for some people in the government to open an investigation that leads to identify those who had kidnapped Lebanese or the groups behind such acts,” Khoury said, adding that this was not the goal of NGOs.
“Our goal is to tell the families of the kidnapped and imprisoned whether their loved ones are alive or dead and help them either receive the body or locate them,” said Khoury, appealing to Mirza to investigate this issue and find out whether abducted Lebanese were in Syria.
Mirza, however, said that the issue of enforced disappearance was “completely different” to that of the general amnesty

Nasrallah has no Facebook
Hanin Ghaddar/Now Lebanon June 27, 2011
Whoever is still listening to Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s speeches would think that he is either unaware of the uprising in Syria, or that he is in denial. Any person with a minimum level of common sense understands now that there is no turning back in Syria. The people on the streets will not go back home, and it is just a matter of time until the regime of Bashar al-Assad falls.
So what does Hezbollah have in the tube?
One would wonder if Nasrallah is watching the YouTube videos coming from the Syrian streets like the rest of us, or if he is following the news and the discussions on the Facebook groups. If he does, he would have changed his rhetoric a long time ago for one simple reason: to protect his party from increasing isolation and eventual collapse due to the loss of its only Arab ally—unless, of course, he has other plans to change the course of regional events.
Of course Nasrallah is very much aware of the events in Syria, and he is worried. Hezbollah is faced today with a double danger: the fall of the Assad regime and the upcoming indictment from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), which many predict will point the finger at party members. The new government was formed to face these two dangers, and there is no doubt that Hezbollah’s next steps are going to be in that direction.
Last week, some reports mentioned that Hezbollah might start a war with Israel to protect the Syrian regime or at least to turn attention away from the daily demonstrations and Assad’s brutal crackdown on them.
According to Reuters, a Lebanese official close to Hezbollah said that the Party of God is “committed to do whatever it takes politically to help deflect what it sees as a foreign campaign against Damascus, but it is also readying for a possible war with Israel if Assad is weakened.”
As for the tribunal’s indictment, the official said the new government might halt the state's cooperation with and funding of the court, as well as withdrawing Lebanese judges.
A war between Hezbollah and Israel, on the other hand, has been on the horizon since the 2006 July war ended. But it seems less looming today, as Hezbollah is less likely to initiate any military conflict with the Jewish State for three reasons.
Firstly, Hezbollah’s support base cannot take another war with Israel. The Shia community in the South, the Bekaa and the southern suburbs of Beirut is still suffering from the 2006 war’s repercussions. The reconstruction of damaged buildings is not finished, and many Shia haven’t received their full compensations.
In addition, Hezbollah’s double-standards vis-à-vis the Syrian uprising would make another war with Israel a clear attempt to protect the Assad regime rather than the Lebanese people and land, even according to Hezbollah’s supporters. Hezbollah can’t risk alienating a major chunk of its backers who believe in the Resistance as the protector of the underprivileged, not of autocrats.
Second, were Hezbollah to enter into a war with Israel, which will react much more viciously than it did in 2006, it might risk losing the balance of terror created by its “Divine Victory.” Hezbollah is not guaranteed a win and will deplete its arsenal, which the beleaguered Syrian regime cannot afford to replenish and which provides the main weapons-smuggling channel.
Without its weapons, Hezbollah can’t keep its power internally and use the threat of violence to stay in control of Lebanese state institutions and political decisions. If the Party of God loses both its weapons and its neighboring ally, it will be left with nothing to fight for or with.
Three, immediately after the 2006 war, aid poured in from many donor states in the region. Qatar heavily participated in rebuilding the South. In addition, lots of money came in from Iran in bags in order to avoid bureaucratic procedures. The first rounds of compensations were paid immediately to the people in parallel with heavy doses of Divine Victory rhetoric.
This time, aid is not going to be that abundant or immediate. Iran is suffering from sanctions and deep economic problems, in addition to an internal political struggle with many layers, which would hamper the bags of money coming into Lebanon. In addition, Qatar is today having a serious problem with Hezbollah after its recent stance against the Syrian regime.
Moreover, in 2006, the Lebanese government was considered legitimate by many regional and Western states, unlike today’s Mikati cabinet, which many in the West have labeled “Hezbollah-led” and which has yet to hand in its ministerial statement, upon which other states will judge it.
It would be suicidal for Hezbollah to start another war with Israel, unless, of course, Iran asks the party to do so in order to protect the Syrian regime. But is the Assad regime more important to Iran than Hezbollah?
At any rate, a new war will probably not divert attention away from the Syrian uprising. The Syrians will not stop demonstrating against their regime, and the international community will understand the goal behind any war mongering by Hezbollah.
With Hezbollah’s double-standards and violent rhetoric, the peaceful Syrian uprising has only diverted attention away from Hezbollah, not vice versa.
Maybe Nasrallah should seriously start considering a Facebook profile.
*Hanin Ghaddar is managing editor of NOW Lebanon

Syria and Russia
Hazem Saghiyeh, June 27, 2011e
Now Lebanon/There are various analyses concerning Russia’s stance on Syria and Moscow’s obstruction of any international condemnation of President Assad and his regime. In addition to the military base in Banias, some emphasize Damascus’ indebtedness to Moscow, which Russia fears may be lost if the Syrian regime were to be toppled. Others speak of Russia’s cultural influence and military creed on the Baath regime and institutions, which date back to the old days of the Soviet Union. Others still mention Moscow’s fear that a post-Baath Syria would become part of the Western circle of influence, especially in light of NATO’s new role in Libya, not to mention other analyses whereby Russia’s intransigence in the Middle East is an appropriate means to improve its negotiating conditions with the United States regarding Eastern and Central Europe. Those in favor of this latter theory tend to predict that Russia will revert to a more flexible position as it did in Libya, especially if Turkey – Russia’s southern neighbor – succeeds in pushing things in that direction.
In any case, these assumptions are not wholly unfounded. However, they fit within the broader context of a despotic link bringing Moscow and Damascus closer to one another. While it is true that the communist regime fell along with the fall of the Soviet Union as such, the one that replaced it in the Kremlin stands midway between old despotism and impaired democracy. This explains Russia’s attachment to the “leader” represented by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, not to mention the dire situation of party and media freedoms.
In reality, Russia, which undertook to undermine “the spring of peoples” in its European neighborhood during the 19th century, is still playing this function within the available realms. We thus notice that it impedes democratic development in its neighborhood and, in so doing, takes advantage of some reckless and selfish US stances and of some deficiencies in the democracy-building process in its immediate Western neighbors. Nevertheless, we know from experience that the world might stumble and walk askew, but it is still moving in another direction. Looking back to the individual experiences of each country, we can derive an almost infallible equation: Russia’s support for a cause or regime has seldom saved such a regime or cause. We have a long list of losers worldwide, more than 90% of whom were former friends of Russia.
The Syrian regime would better remember that.

Iran unveils underground missile silo, poises for US-Turkish attack on Syria. Iron Dome for Haifa
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
June 27, 2011/Iran's big Great Prophet Mohammad War Games 6 was launched Monday, June 27, ahead of a Turkish operation against Syria's Assad regime which is anticipated by its military and Revolutionary Guards chiefs. debkafile reports Tehran expected the Turkish army to have US air and naval support in case of Iranian reprisals against them both. On Day One of the exercise, Iran unveiled its first underground missile silo immune to air strikes. It held what looked like a Shahab-3 ballistic missile.
Israel has responded to Iran's military exercise and the spiraling regional tension by positioning one of its new Iron Dome rocket interceptor batteries in the northern city of Haifa.
Last week, Iranian warships and submarines deployed in the Red Sea tracked the movements of two big US aircraft carriers, the USS Enterprise and USS George H. W Bush, which crossed each other in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on June 21 heading in opposite directions through this strategic chokepoint between the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean.
The USS Enterprise, the world's largest aircraft carrier, was on its way from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean via the Red Sea and Suez Canal, while the USS George H.W. Bush, the US Navy's newest carrier with the greatest fire power of any of its warships, left the Mediterranean and headed in the opposite direction for the Persian Gulf with a crew of 9,000 and 70 fighter bombers.
On the same day, Iranian naval surveillance picked up the arrival of the Los Angeles-class USS Bremerton nuclear-powered attack submarineoff Bahrain opposite Iran.
Strategists in Tehran see danger in these crisscross movements by US war fleets. According to our military sources, the Enterprise, which is older, slower and has less fire power than the Bush, was moved to the Mediterranean because there it is supported by American air bases scattered across western and central Europe, whereas the Bush was consigned to waters opposite Iranian shores because it is virtually a single-vessel fighting machine capable of operating without support.
The Iranian exercise has two primary objectives:
1. To spread Iran's ballistic missiles to their maximum operational extent in support of Iran's signals to Washington and Ankara in the past two weeks warning that an attack on Syria by a US-backed Turkish or NATO force would spark Iranian missile reprisals against Turkish and US military targets on Turkish soil and other parts of the Middle East.
2. Iran has fanned its fighting forces out across the country, with the densest concentrations on its Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea coasts, ready to repel any American attack that might follow an Iranian missile assault on US, Turkish or allied targets.
The ground-air-naval exercise is scheduled to last 10 days – unusually long for a military drill – so that Iran stands ready for a decision in Washington and/or Ankara to attack Syria.
The announcement of the exercise by Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force commander Gen. Amir-Ali Hajizadeh Sunday, June 26, made Tehran's intentions clear: He said the exercise was being staged in response to the "growing US military presence in the region" and noted that the missiles practiced would include the Saijil and the Fateh 110.
He did not need to spell out the facts that the Saijil-2 has a range of 2,000 kilometers and can reach any point in the Middle East and further - up to the Black Sea region, for instance, where US air and naval units are posted; or that the improved Fateh 110 has been supplied to Syria and Hizballah for use against Israel.
Iran would expect to be joined by both in any military flare-up.

Lebanon's Arabic press digest - June 28, 2011
June 28, 2011/ The Daily Star
Following are summaries of some of the main stories in a selection of Lebanese newspapers Tuesday. The Daily Star cannot vouch for the accuracy of these reports.
An-Nahar: Tribunal faces same crisis as government formation
Amid confusion raised by reports about the possibility of an imminent release of the indictment by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, the government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati faced a new round of stagnation over the STL issue, meaning the finalization of the government’s policy statement before the end of the constitutional deadline [of 1 month] is being blocked.
Disagreement between the supporters of the two approaches to the STL prevented the subject from being discussed at a fifth round of a ministerial committee meeting Monday.
Ministerial sources said the STL was facing the same crisis as that of the government formation process in terms of the inflexibility shown by the team that refuses to include any STL formula in the policy statement, and as a result is trying to buy time.
The sources told An-Nahar that all aspects of the draft policy statement are being revised except for the main obstacle [the STL] in the light of ongoing differences between Mikati and Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, political circles were preoccupied Monday with reports about the imminent issuance of the indictment.
Following an unannounced visit to the Grand Serail Monday that was described as “private,” State Prosecutor Saeed Mirza said Lebanon has not been informed about an imminent release of the indictments or a request for the interrogation of any Lebanese citizens.
As-Safir: Mikati’s line on thorny [STL] clause not achieved ... Court: No date for indictments
Lebanon remained affected by a torrent of leaks about an imminent release of the indictments in Hariri’s assassination, a development that is swamped with question marks about the significance of raising this issue at this particular time amid approval of a policy statement.
While ministerial sources said the approval of the STL clause awaits a “Mikati formula,” As-Safir learnt that consultations held by Mikati over the past 48 hours did not produce a compromise over the STL issue.
Al-Mustaqbal: Rai receives message from Hariri … Beirut lives on the prospect of imminent release of indictments
The STL clause in the policy statement and the possibility of an imminent release of the STL indictments dominated the political scene Monday.
In a telephone call with Al-Mustaqbal, Mirza denied having received anything related to the STL indictments, stressing that in line with the agreement with the STL, Lebanon is the first to receive a copy of this decision.
Meanwhile, ex-PM Saad Hariri dispatched his political adviser Daoud Sayegh to Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai with a message related to the current situation in Lebanon and the region.
Ad-Diyar: Dispute between Mikati, Jumblatt and majority over STL
It became clear that there is difference in views between Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who is backed by MP Walid Jumblatt, and between Hezbollah, [Michel Aoun’s] Free Patriotic Movement and the majority – who make up about 18 ministers of the 30-member Cabinet – over a formula for the STL clause in the government’s policy statement.
Ad-Diyar came up with a conclusion that differences between Mikati and Hezbollah have taken place recently with regards to the government formation or the perception of many issues. This dispute, however, is confined to certain points and is not wide-ranging.
A source close to Mikati told Ad-Diyar that the Prime Minister is obliged to take into account the resistance’s status and at the same time he is compelled to take into account the international community, on top of his standing within the Sunni community, which would accuse him of betraying the STL investigation concerning Hariri’s assassination, thus forcing Mikati to look for a formula that satisfies both the resistance [Hezbollah] and takes into account the reality of the Sunni community.
Hezbollah’s stance, according to Ad-Diyar assessments, is that the resistance cannot but accept a formula on the STL approved by the majority which has 18 ministers in the government.
Al-Akhbar: Ministerial Committee: fifth juice-free meeting
The weekend’s efforts failed to produce a deal on the STL clause in the policy statement that could be put on the table for discussions during a fifth round of ministerial committee talks Monday, which led to the postponement of the issue to a sixth meeting, with no signs that could be the last one, particularly after the emergence of a Hezbollah position which stressed that the Mikati policy statement won’t come out unless there is a unanimous agreement by the new majority [March 8 coalition].

Ships of fools
By JERUSALEM POST EDITORIAL
06/27/2011 23:18
Although the Israel Navy is preparing for the worst case scenario, there is still a chance that a clash on the open seas can be avoided. The US, Canada, France, Australia, Greece and other countries have issued strong warnings to their nationals not to participate in the latest flotilla that aims to try and break Israel’s sea blockade on the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. Cyprus has banned flotilla members from using its port – one of the closest to Gaza – as a point of rendezvous. These steps underline Israel’s legal right to maintain a naval blockade aimed at thwarting arms smuggling, in order to protect its citizens from a terrorist organization which has fired thousands of rockets and mortar shells into Israel and killed hundreds of Israelis in suicide bombings and other attacks.
Meanwhile, Israel and Egypt have announced they will allow ships taking part in the flotilla to unload what they say is their cargo of humanitarian goods at the Egyptian port of El-Arish, to be transferred on land to Gaza, after being thoroughly inspected. Israel has made it clear that while it is resolved to enforce the blockade, it will also facilitate the transfer of any humanitarian cargo destined for Gaza that arrives at Ashdod port.
An impressive amount of cooperation and responsible behavior both locally and internationally might yet prevent a potentially disastrous scenario from playing itself out.
Unfortunately, some organizers of the flotilla seem to be foolishly throwing caution to the wind, and appear bent on pushing ahead with plans for a confrontation on the open seas with the Israel Navy. Organizers of the flotilla claim their goal is to end Gaza’s “humanitarian crisis.” Yet, while they are more than willing to challenge Israel’s right to defend itself against the importation of murderous weaponry by means of a carefully monitored blockade, activists have precious little criticism for Hamas, an anti-Semitic terrorist organization that vows to destroy the Jewish state, regularly violates basic human rights and the religious freedom of non-Muslims, and receives funding and backing from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Iran.
Gazans are undoubtedly suffering the consequences of their decision in the 2006 Palestinian elections to vote for Hamas, an Islamist movement officially ostracized by the US, the EU and other countries due to its terrorist activities.
Until recently, Egypt has been no less stringent than Israel in its land blockade of Gaza, out of a refusal to recognize Hamas’s violent seizure of power in 2007. Gazans’ suffering under Hamas leadership explains the terrorist organization’s waning popularity. A Pew Research Center poll conducted in March and published in May found that just 34 percent of Gazans gave the organization a positive rating; in 2007, six in 10 Palestinians had a positive view of the organization.
But while the situation is tough – unemployment is about 25%, according to a Hamas minister quoted by the New York Times, and three-quarters of the population relies on food aid – there is no humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Literacy is nearly universal and infant mortality is relatively low. Health conditions remain better than across much of the developing world.
Since June of last year Israel has allowed most everything into Gaza, except cement, steel and other construction material (other than for internationally supervised projects), out of concern that such supplies can be used by Hamas for bunkers and bombs. But in recent months, tunnels under the southern border with Egypt have facilitated the smuggling of building materials, sparking a new construction boom in Gaza. And since the ouster of president Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian security authorities are no longer arresting the smugglers.
IF SO, what is the real motivation of those “activists” intent on challenging Israel’s blockade, these activists targeting an Israel that seeks to protect its civilians from terrorist attacks, these activists choosing to pour their passion into this cause while ignoring genuine humanitarian disasters and outrages elsewhere in this same region, notably including Bashar Assad’s brutal repression of his own Syrian people? Could it be their stubborn preoccupation with Israel’s purported abuses and “collective punishment” of Gazans, while conveniently ignoring the injustices of an increasingly unpopular Hamas regime, are the result of a certain ingrown prejudice against the Jewish state? Hopefully, reason and international pressure will win out, and the Gaza flotilla will not sail insistently into confrontation.
Preventing a repeat of the Mavi Marmara debacle, by pulling back from a misguidedly motivated and thoroughly unnecessary confrontation with Israeli forces, would be the most fitting way for the flotilla activists to commemorate that recent one-year anniversary.