LCCC
ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِJUNE
23/2011
Bible Quotation for today
Holy Gospel of
Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 19:16-22. Now someone approached him and
said, "Teacher, what good must I do to gain eternal life?"He answered him, "Why
do you ask me about the good? There is only One who is good. If you wish to
enter into life, keep the commandments."He asked him, "Which ones?" And Jesus
replied, " 'You shall not kill; you shall not commit adultery; you shall not
steal; you shall not bear false witness; honor your father and your mother'; and
'you shall love your neighbor as yourself.'" The young man said to him, "All of
these I have observed. What do I still lack?" Jesus said to him, "If you wish to
be perfect, go, sell what you have and give to (the) poor, and you will have
treasure in heaven. Then come, follow me." When the young man heard this
statement, he went away sad, for he had many possessions.
Latest
analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases
from
miscellaneous
sources
In Syria, Assad must go/Los
Angeles Times/June 22/11
Tripoli heats up after clashes/By:
Nadine Elali/June 22/11
What Are The Implications of
Hezbollah's Rise In Lebanon?/International Business Times/22 June/11
Latest News Reports From
Miscellaneous Sources for June 22/11
Senior Israeli source: Iran
actively helping Syria squash demonstrations/Haaretz
Syrian soldiers drive refugees back
to ghost towns. Palestinians join protests/DEBKAfile
Paris Presses U.N. on Syria, Moscow
Warns of 'Interference'/Naharnet
Ban elected for second term as UN
leader/Now Lebanon
Aoun says March 14 has no sense of
humor, hopefully some members will end up in prison/Now Lebanon
Aoun: Hariri ‘impoverished’
Lebanon/Now Lebanon
Aoun's statements convey “hatred,”
Future bloc says/Now Lebanon
Mikati surprised by statements of
“responsible” Aoun/Now Lebanon
Zahra slams Aoun’s “Rated R” press
conferences/Now Lebanon
Lebanese Cabinet policy stalls over
STL/The Daily Star
President Amin Gemayel: Syrian
officials ‘must learn’ from events in Arab world/Now Lebanon
The Price Of Doing Nothing In
Syria/NPR
Senior Israeli source: Iran
actively helping Syria squash demonstrations/Haaretz
The economic effects of Syria's
turmoil are clearly visible/Haaretz
South Lebanon suffering Civil
Defense volunteer shortage/Daily Star
War of words between Aoun Future
Movement resumes/Daily Star
Maronite patriarch wishes
Cabinet luck from Rome/Daily Star
Jumblatt says his bloc will not
cover for “vengeful actions” /Now Lebanon
Estonian FM: Kidnapped cyclists
‘alive’/Now Lebanon
Lebanon frees Syrians held for
not having identity papers/Daily Star
Gemayel Denies March 14 Forces Met
in Paris to 'Draw Up Plan for Future'
Senior Israeli
source: Iran actively helping Syria squash demonstrations
By Avi Issacharoff /Haaretz
A senior Israeli source says Iran is involved in the suppressing of the
anti-regime demonstrations in Syria. Iran's Revolutionary Guard and the Al-Quds
force, commanded by Gen. Qassem Suleimani, are operating throughout the country,
the source says.
The source told Haaretz there is clear information on Iran's involvement in the
crushing of the protests, as well as the participation of Hezbollah. Their role
is not limited to shootings; Iran has also supplied equipment to the Syrian
army, including sniper rifles and communications systems for disrupting the
Internet in the country, the source said.
Syrian residents and media reports say men in military uniforms have been heard
speaking poor Arabic or Farsi among themselves.
"In the Syrian army there is a ban on beards, so when we see military people
with beards we can assume they're not part of the regular Syrian army," the
source said.
Iran's involvement reached a new zenith, the source said, when the Revolutionary
Guard organized the demonstrations against Israel on the Golan Heights as part
of the events on Nakba Day on May 15 and Naksa Day on June 5.
"Initial reports about the presence of Iranians in the suppression of the
demonstrations were from the town of Daraa, where the mass demonstrations began.
However, since then it is possible to see Iran's presence in many other places,"
the source said.
"During the Palestinian memorial days, the Revolutionary Guard organized the
busing that was required to transfer the demonstrators to the border. The
initiative was not Syrian. However, the Syrian army approved the transfer of the
buses to the border. On Nakba Day they [the Iranians] were also involved in the
demonstrations in Lebanon, something that was not backed by Hezbollah and was
opposed by the Lebanese Army. This is the reason why in Lebanon there were not
confrontations and demonstrations on Naksa Day," the source said.
On Naksa Day, the Revolutionary Guard rallied Ahmed Jibril's Popular Front for
the Liberation of Palestine - General Command to send hundreds of demonstrators
to the border.
"The background to the riots that broke out in the Yarmuk refugee camp the day
after the demonstrations on the Golan Heights was largely the failure to pay the
money that had been promised to the participants: $1,000 for each participant
and $10,000 for anyone who became a 'martyr' - killed in the demonstrations,"
the source said.
"The families of those killed were furious with Ahmed Jibril, whom they blamed
for dragging their children to a confrontation with the Israelis. Hundreds took
part in the demonstration because they had not been paid. Jibril's security
guards feared that he would be harmed, and they opened fire, killing 14
residents of the camp. At the time there were senior Hamas figures in the camp."
The senior Israeli source said the likelihood of similar demonstrations on the
Israel-Syria border in the near future is low. He agreed with Defense Minister
Ehud Barak's assessment in an interview with Haaretz two weeks ago: The process
that will end the Assad regime is irreversible.
"His regime's legitimacy is lost. The harder he strikes, the more people take to
the streets," the source said. He added that "in the end certain senior officers
in the Syrian army - Sunnis - will reach an agreement with senior Alawi
officers, providing sufficient security guarantees for the Alawi community. They
will find a political solution that will extricate the country from the crisis
and remove President Bashar Assad from power."
However, desertions from the Syrian army have so far been limited to the lower
ranks - below battalion commanders. The senior source says there is a certain
amount of resentment in the army because regular forces and "military security"
forces have been used to suppress demonstrations.
He added that at Jisr al-Shoughour a "military security" force was sent to deal
with the demonstrations but ran into an ambush, and 120 soldiers were killed.
"There are weapons in many places in Syria, as in all parts of the Middle East,
and so far many soldiers and members of the security forces have been hit by
gunfire fired by armed supporters of the opposition," the source added.
Meanwhile, as confrontations between demonstrators and the military continued in
Syria yesterday, Assad announced yet another amnesty for everyone arrested in
the protests. A pro-Assad demonstration took place in Damascus, but Arab media
outlets noted that the participants had been forced to attend, sometimes by
labor unions.
Syrian soldiers drive refugees back to ghost towns. Palestinians join protests
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 21, 2011, The Syrian army went into action
Tuesday, June 21, the day after the Assad speech, to drive back to their homes
the nearly quarter of a million civilians who fled the towns and villages on the
Turkish borderin the last ten days to escape military persecution. debkafile's
sources reported sounds of gunfire and explosions coming from the hill refuges.
This appeared to be Syrian President Bashar Assad's answer to the phone
conversation early Tuesday between US President Barack Obama and Turkish Prime
Minister, after which a senior Turkish official gave Syrian President less than
a week to make good on his promised reforms and end the violence against his
populations.
In his speech Monday, the Syrian ruler called on the refugees to return to their
homes under the army's protection. He tried for a caring note by explaining that
"without their sons" those towns were "dead cities." But his opponents had no
doubt he was threatening displaced citizens who flouted his "call" with the same
violent treatment he has meted out to the opposition since April.Assad's
determination to crush dissent by force is as steely as ever. Contrary to
reporting from Washington, Ankara and Damascus of up to 10,000 Syrian refugees
who crossed into Turkey for shelter and a few thousand who took to the hills
inside Syria, debkafile's military sources report that the real figure is nearer
250,000.
Sunday, June 19, Turkey began ferrying food, clean water and medical supplies to
the starving and traumatized people hiding in the hills of northern Syria - many
of whom had lost family members and all their belongings and property, their
homes, businesses and crops destroyed and confiscated in such towns as Jisr al-Shugour.
Turkish helicopters dropped supplies to people hiding in inaccessible places.
Ankara was not deterred from this effort by Damascus' warning that aid to the
refugees and displaced persons on Syrian soil would be deemed foreign military
action and draw an appropriate response. On carrier of this warning was Assad's
special emissary to Ankara Gen. Hassan Turkmeni. Assad is quite barefacedly
showing he is not scared of a showdown with Washington or Ankara. He estimates
that in the final reckoning, neither will venture military action against his
regime and army. Even the US president strong condemnation of the regime's
"outrageous" use of violence against the protesters saying it must "end now"
told the Syrian ruler he still has time to play with; Obama still held back from
naming Bashar Assad as responsible for the violence or calling on him to step
down. During the day, four civilians were killed in Homs and Deir al Zor as
clashes between pro- and anti-government protesters erupted in Damascus and
other towns. Although the government managed to bring thousands of pro-Assad
supporters out on the streets after the presidential address, the situation in
Syria may be approaching a crunch:
1. For the first time, large government forces went into Hama, the town which
symbolizes Muslim Brotherhood defiance of the Assad family since the 1982
massacre. Thos forces face the strong risk of fierce armed opposition - which is
why the army did not interfere with the anti-government rallies there until
Tuesday.
2. Also for the first time, Palestinians from the refugee camps around Damascus
have thrown their weight behind the anti-Assad opposition. Over the last
weekend, small armed groups shot up buildings belonging to Assad sympathizers,
such as Ahmad Jibril's Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestinian – Central
Command and the PFL.
3. The US and NATO continue to pile up military assets in the Mediterranean and
Turkey. The huge USS George H.W. Bush carrier cruising in the central
Mediterranean opposite Syrian shores has been joined by the USS Truxtun missile
destroyer which departed the Israeli naval base in Haifa on June 17 and the USS
Barry guided missile destroyer which sailed out of the Italian port of Gaeta on
the same day.
Also that day, Turkey assumed command of the Standing NATO Maritime Group-2
Response Force in the Mediterranean.
In Paris, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin issued another warning against
military intervention in Syria on the Libyan model.
Monday, debkafile reported that some sources described Turkish military
helicopters as infiltrating northern Syria on reconnaissance missions and NATO
planning to fly extra troops from Spanish and Germany bases to the Izmir Air
base in western Turkey.
Ban elected for second term as UN leader
June 21, 2011 /The 192-nation UN General Assembly on Tuesday elected Ban Ki-moon
for a second term as the global body's secretary general. The assembly
unanimously backed the former South Korean foreign minister by acclamation. His
second five-year term will start on January 1 and run through 2016. After a
quiet start to his first mandate, Ban has become noticeable on the international
stage in recent months for his outspoken defence of protesters taking part in
the Arab Spring uprisings against strongarm leaders.-AFP/NOW Lebanon
Mikati surprised by statements of “responsible” Aoun
June 21, 2011 /Prime Minister Najib Mikati responded on Tuesday to Change and
Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun’s press conference earlier, saying that he was
surprised that “such talk came from a responsible man like Aoun.” “It is
unacceptable to trespass the limits of respect and decorum in our political
discussions, especially amid such hard circumstances that call on everyone to be
responsible,” Mikati told reporters.Earlier on Tuesday, Aoun responded to
criticisms sparked by his Friday statement that “a one-way” ticket was booked
for former PM Saad Hariri.Addressing March 14, the Change and Reform bloc leader
said “They do not appreciate a sense of humor. Since they rejected the ‘one-way
ticket’ out statement, we will issue them a ‘one-way ticket’ in. There is a big
section of Roumieh Prison that is being renovated and it fits a lot [of people].
God willing some [members of the March 14 coalition] will be in it.”
After nearly five months of wrangling, Mikati last week formed a government
dominated by an alliance led by the Iranian- and Syrian-backed Hezbollah
movement. The Saad Hariri-led March 14 alliance had announced it will not take
part in the upcoming government. -NOW Lebanon
Aoun says March
14 has no sense of humor, hopefully some members will end up in prison
June 21, 2011 /Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun on Tuesday accused
the March 14 alliance of lacking a sense of humor, saying his statement
pertaining to former Prime Minister Saad Hariri did not mean that he hopes “God
will take away [Hariri’s] life.”
Aoun said during an annual Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) dinner in Kesrouan on
Friday evening that the plan of the former PM – who has been out of the country
for almost three months – for Lebanon is over and a “one-way ticket” out was
booked for him. “[The March 14 alliance] is fierce but disrespectful,” said the
FPM leader following his bloc’s weekly meeting.
“They do not appreciate a sense of humor. Since they rejected the ‘one-way
ticket’ out statement, we will issue them a ‘one-way ticket’ in. There is a big
section of Roumieh Prison that is being renovated and it fits a lot [of people].
God willing some [members of the March 14 coalition] will be in it.” Also, Aoun
slammed US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman,
saying the US envoy is a “weird creature,” who – according to Aoun – was used to
forming the cabinet in Lebanon. “This is the first time a cabinet is formed
against [Feltman’s] will,” he said, adding that Feltman has to be more
respectful. The MP said that the newly-formed cabinet’s Ministerial Statement,
which has yet to be issued, will not target anyone. “We want justice, and we do
not want forgery. We reject decisions that are against international law and UN
legitimacy.”
He also called for waiting for the indictment of the Special Tribunal for
Lebanon, which is investigating the 2005 assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri
and will reportedly indict members of the Iranian- Syrian-back Shia group,
Hezbollah. The FPM leader addressed the ongoing events in Syria, reiterating
Syrian Bashar al-Assad’s statement that there is a conspiracy in the country.
“No one denied that reforms must be carried out in Syria,” said Aoun, adding,
“Assad developed a thorough plan.”Assad said Monday that dialogue could lead to
a new constitution and even the end of his Baath Party's monopoly on power but
refused to reform Syria under "chaos."More than 1,300 civilians have been killed
and some 10,000 people arrested, according to Syrian rights groups. Meanwhile,
the new Lebanese cabinet – headed by Prime Minister Najib Mikati – was formed
last week after almost five months of deliberations between the March 8 parties.
The March 14 coalition had announced it will not take part in the upcoming
government following the forced collapse of Saad Hariri’s unity cabinet. -NOW
Lebanon
Aoun: Hariri ‘impoverished’ Lebanon
June 18, 2011 /Now Lebanon
Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun said on Friday evening that former
Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s style of governing “impoverished” Lebanon, adding
that “the Hariri plan is over.”“Hariri will not come back [as a premier],” Aoun
said during the FPM’s annual dinner in Kesrouan. The US does not care about us,
the FPM leader also said, adding “We are resistant and we are the ones who will
be victorious.” Commenting on talk that the Change and Reform bloc ministers –
who are Christians – “will not serve their sect”, Aoun said “Yes, these
ministers are Christians, but they will work for the Christians, the Shia, the
Druze and all people.”“[The bloc] minister’s work will be fair,” he added. The
new Lebanese cabinet—headed by Prime Minister Najib Mikati—was formed on Monday
after almost five months of deliberations between the March 8 parties.
-NOW Lebanon
President Amin Gemayel: Syrian officials ‘must learn’ from events in Arab world
June 21, 2011 /Kataeb Party leader Amin Gemayel told France 24’s Arabic channel
on Tuesday that Syrian officials must learn from the events in the Arab world,
adding that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must lead the “change process” in
Syria and introduce democracy. Gemayel voiced hope that there will be stability
and freedom in Syria, adding that the Syrians have to choose the “best path.”
The Kataeb leader also said it was important that Lebanon remains neutral
regarding Arab-Arab conflicts.“Some want to engage us in the Arab-Syrian
struggle. Our aim, however, is to keep Lebanon away from these struggles.”He
also reiterated his solidarity with the Palestinian cause, and said that Lebanon
is ready to confront Israel if there is a united Arab decision.However, Gemayel
added that it is unacceptable to drag Lebanon into a confrontation with Israel
to serve regional aims. Commenting on the meetings of March 14 figures with
former Prime Minister Saad Hariri in France, Gemayel said: “March 14 figures did
not meet with Hariri to develop a plan for the future.”
“The meeting I held with him was to discuss how to deal with a cabinet
controlled by Hezbollah.”He also said that he thinks Hariri will return “very
soon” to Lebanon.
The new Lebanese cabinet was formed last week after almost five months of
deliberations between the March 8 parties. The March 14 coalition had announced
it will not take part in Najib Mikati’s government.French newspaper Le Monde
reported on Thursday that Hariri is taking refuge in France since, according to
US and Saudi intelligence, he might be killed by the Syrian regime to trigger
war in Lebanon.The Syrian government is engaged in a deadly crackdown on
protesters who since March have been demanding the end of 48 years of rule by
the Baath Party, which is controlled by Assad. -NOW Lebanon
Aoun’s statements convey “hatred,” Future bloc says
June 21, 2011 /Now Lebanon
The Future bloc said on Tuesday that statements of some Change and Reform bloc
MPs, including its leader Michel Aoun, convey how much hatred the bloc members
possess toward others.“Their statements reveal the vengeful intents that aim to
cancel others. Such a policy was mastered by Hezbollah, and is now being resumed
by [Aoun],” the Future bloc said in a statement following its weekly meeting.
Such “vengeful” logic that Aoun is proud of adopting will have negative
repercussions on Lebanon if it continues, the bloc added.
“The policy of cancelling [the other] will only lead to more losses,” the
statement also said, adding that the former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s
heritage is “deep-rooted” and “sick minds and grudges” will not be able to
uproot it. The bloc also commented on Labor Minister Charbel Nahhas’ Monday
statement that Ogero’s Director General Abdel Monem Youssef’s “days in the
Lebanese state are numbered, unless he spends his [time] in [Lebanese]
prisons.”“Nahhas’ statement is an example of the vengeful manner we warned of
when the cabinet was formed,” the bloc said.It added that a former minister, in
reference to Nahhas’ tenure as a telecommunications minister in former PM Saad
Hariri’s cabinet, does not have the right to judge any employee, especially if
the employee is not related to the ministry he heads. The statement added that
Prime Minister Najib Mikati and President Michel Sleiman should address the
labor minister’s statement. Aoun said during an annual Free Patriotic Movement
(FPM) dinner in Kesrouan on Friday evening that the plan of the former PM – who
has been out of the country for almost three months – for Lebanon is over and a
“one-way ticket” out was booked for him. -NOW Lebanon
Zahra slams Aoun’s “Rated R” press conferences
June 21, 2011 /Lebanese Forces MP Antoine Zahra criticized Change and Reform
bloc leader MP Michel Aoun’s statement that the March 14 alliance is
disrespectful, saying that Aoun should delay his Tuesday press conferences until
after mid-night so “children do not hear him.” Aoun “should teach his ministers
that MPs hold ministers accountable and not the other way around,” Zahra told
Future News television, adding that the arms of Hezbollah will not protect
them.The LF MP commented on the newly-formed cabinet, and said the government
was formed for regional aims and not domestic ones. “It was formed upon a Syrian
order.”“[Syrian] President [Bashar] al-Assad will regret forming this cabinet
[in Lebanon] because it will cause more problems with the Arab and international
communities.”Zahra added that the next cabinet will not carry out the 2013
parliamentary elections, adding that even if it does, its political party will
not win, in reference to the Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition. The new Lebanese
cabinet was formed last week after almost five months of deliberations between
the March 8 parties. The March 14 coalition had announced it will not take part
in Najib Mikati’s government.-NOW Lebanon
.Paris Presses U.N. on Syria, Moscow Warns of 'Interference'
Naharnet /France stepped up pressure Monday on the United Nations to speak out
against Syria's deadly crackdown on protests, but Russia again said it opposed
"interference" in the country's internal affairs. "The U.N. Security Council
cannot remain silent for much longer," French Prime Minister Francois Fillon
said during a joint press conference in Paris with his Russian counterpart
Vladimir Putin. "The time has come when everyone will have to face up to their
responsibilities," said Fillon. Western governments have been circulating a
draft Security Council resolution condemning Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's
crackdown -- which has cost hundreds of lives -- but Russia has warned it would
veto such a move. Putin said Tuesday in Paris: "We believe that interference in
the sovereign matters of independent states shows little promise." He denied
that Russia was keen to shield Syria from Western criticism because it had
special interests in the country, where Assad's rule has been rocked by protests
demanding greater freedoms and democracy since March. "We are not in favor of
providing cover for someone, we are in favor of finding effective instruments to
settle problems -- together," he said. Putin added however that "certainly
pressure should be applied on the leadership of any country where there is mass
unrest and especially bloodshed." Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on
Monday that Moscow was ready to use its veto to block a Western-sponsored U.N.
resolution on Syria as it could be used as cover for military action. Britain,
France, Germany and Portugal have distributed a resolution condemning the Syrian
military crackdown on the opposition. Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron has
said if any permanent member tries to veto it then "that should be on their
conscience". More than 1,300 civilians have been killed and some 10,000 people
arrested, according to Syrian rights groups, in the crackdown that has seen
troops dispatched to crush revolt in cities across the Middle Eastern country.
Assad on Tuesday ordered a new general amnesty, a day after an offer of
"national dialogue" to end the deadly unrest and as a huge crowd rallied in
Damascus in his support. Pro-democracy activists have however rejected Assad's
overtures and vowed that the "revolution" would carry on, while the U.S. State
Department called for "action, not words."
Cabinet policy stalls over STL
June 22, 2011 /By Hassan Lakkis The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Discussions over the government policy statement were stalled Tuesday
over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, pending an agreement between Hezbollah
and Prime Minister Najib Mikati. A political source told The Daily Star that the
ministerial committee tasked with finalizing the draft policy statement will
hold daily sessions until consent is reached over the article on Lebanon’s
commitment to international resolutions, particularly the U.N.-backed STL.
Mikati, who headed the committee’s meeting, said discussions were positive and
will be followed up Wednesday. Hezbollah Minister of State for Administrative
Reforms Mohammad Fneish told reporters at the Grand Serail to “forget about the
Tribunal,” when asked whether the committee tackled the issue in its second
meeting Tuesday. “There are more important points, like the economy,” he added.
Information Minister Walid Daouk said that the committee will finalize its work
over the draft policy statement during the session Wednesday.
Daouk added that the article touching on Lebanon’s commitment to the Tribunal
had not been completed.
“We are almost done with the statement’s political section … Discussions over
the issue of the STL were not completed and there are ideas being assessed and
will be finalized in the next meeting,” he told reporters. Hezbollah ally Free
Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun had said earlier in the day that the
ministerial policy statement will not be at odds with justice but added that the
March 8 alliance opposed the manipulation of the truth. “We will not confront
anyone and we want justice but we refuse forgery and decisions taken in
violation of international law. Our struggle with them is legal,” Aoun said,
referring to the March 8 argument that the U.N.-backed tribunal was established
illegally.
The STL, tasked with investigation of the 2005 assassination of former Prime
Minister Rafik Hariri, is one of two fiercely disputed issues between the March
8 and 14 camps.
Discussions over the disputed issue of Hezbollah’s weapons were concluded as
expected, after the committee decided to endorse in its policy statement its
commitment to support the “tripartite equation of the Lebanese Army, resistance
and people,” similar to the previous government.
The March 14 alliance had withdrawn its support for the above article, which
former Prime Minister Saad Hariri had originally approved in his Cabinet policy
statement, before a U-turn when Hezbollah and its allies toppled the government
in January after Hariri refused to halt Lebanon’s cooperation with the tribunal.
Hariri’s media office said Tuesday that the Future Movement leader had left for
Montreal, Canada, on a private visit with his family after having held talks
with March 14 officials over two days in Paris.Political sources told The Daily
Star that the ministerial statement would be concise, in contrast to the
previous government’s statement.
Mikati’s formation of a Cabinet, in which Hezbollah and its allies hold a
majority of seats, has raised fears in the West of the Cabinet’s intention to
end cooperation with the STL.
A U.S. official recently described the government make-up as disappointing.
However, U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams welcomed the
formation of the new government after a meeting with Speaker Nabih Berri
Tuesday.
“I welcomed the formation of the Lebanese government last week and also the
positive role that Speaker Nabih Berri played in its formation,” Williams said.
“Speaker Berri and I agreed that Lebanon now has the opportunity to address many
challenges, for example social and economic challenges, that affect the Lebanese
people. Security in Lebanon is another challenge,” he added. Williams added that
he agreed, during talks with Berri, over the need to support the full
implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701.
Among other topics on the Cabinet’s agenda is the approval of a new electoral
law, which is likely to adopt proportional representation. Sources said that the
adoption of the new electoral law was discussed during the ministerial
committee’s meeting and will be featured in the policy statement.
Hizbullah's rout of government
supporters deals blow to US policy
May 16, 2008/By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Analysis/Jocelyne Zablit
Agence France Presse
BEIRUT: The Lebanese Cabinet's climbdown in its latest showdown with Hizbullah
marks a major victory for the Shiite resistance group and a slap in the face for
US policy in the region, analysts said. "This climbdown is a major retreat, not
only for the government but the US agenda in Lebanon," Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a
political analyst and specialist on Hizbullah, told AFP."It empowers the
opposition ... and basically shows that force is the only way of dealing with
the government," she added.
Osama Safa, head of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, arued that the
reversal set a "dangerous precedent," adding: "This means that in the future the
opposition could resort to the same violence or threaten to do so. "The
government has been weakened to irrelevance by actions on the street. It is fast
becoming a lame duck," he said. Both Saad-Ghorayeb and Safa said it was likely
the government, which is backed by the United States and regional powerhouse
Saudi Arabia, would agree to proposals by Arab foreign ministers for continued
negotiations in Qatar given their weakened position. "This is probably a truce
that might be prolonged until we go to meaningful negotiations in a country that
plays more music to the ears of the opposition," Safa said, referring to Qatar,
which unlike Saudi Arabia and Egypt, is considered closer to the opposition.
Added Saad-Ghorayeb: "The fact that the Qataris will be heading those talks, and
with Qatar favoring the opposition, this is a major blow to the US."
Last week's violence, which left at least 65 people dead and 200 wounded, was
sparked by the government's decision to probe a telecommunication network set up
by Hizbullah and to reassign the head of security at Beirut airport on
suspicions he was close to the group. Hizbullah's leader, Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah, said the measures amounted to a "declaration of war." Clashes
occuring intermittently since the previous day between government and opposition
loyalist escalated, and within hours opposition supporters had taken over large
areas of western Beirut. Although the opposition withdrew at the weekend and
allowed the army to move in, it refused to lift its blockade on Beirut airport
and end a civil disobedience campaign until the government revoked its measures
against Hizbullah and returned to the negotiating table. The airport blockade
was lifted later on Thursday following the government's reversal of its
decision.
Patrick Haenni, of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group think tank told
AFP that last week's events were important in that they marked the crossing of
two red lines.
"The government for the first time took a concrete measure against Hizbullah's
arms, which were untouchable," he said. "And Hizbullah's response was very
clear. It did not carry out a coup d'etat but delivered an extremely powerful
political message."
Nadim Shehadi, a Lebanon specialist at London-based think tank Chatham House,
said all eyes will now be on how the two sides go about relaunching negotiations
on an Arab League initiative to end their 18-month-old standoff which has left
the country without a president since November. The Arab initiative calls for
the election of army chief General Michel Suleiman as a compromise candidate for
president, the formation of a national unity government and the drawing up of a
new electoral law for parliamentary polls scheduled for next year.
Although all parties agree on Suleiman's election, the opposition has insisted
on a blocking minority in the new government. Both sides also disagree on the
new electoral law.
"I think what matters now is how Hizbullah and the government translate the
military gains and losses into political ones," Shehadi said. "It is possible
that Hizbullah will lose a lot politically from this military victory. "They
became an occupation, not a resistance," he added. "They turned their arms
against the country."
In Syria, Assad must go
June 22, 2011/Los Angeles Times
Having already killed as many as 1,300 of his own people, Syrian President
Bashar Assad is now promising constitutional reform and an end to bloodshed. In
a speech Monday, he called for a "national dialogue," suggested that rival
political parties would be allowed, and urged refugees to return from Turkey.
His opponents were unimpressed, and thousands of protesters took to the streets
after the address. If President Obama is similarly skeptical — as he ought to be
— he should do what he has so far refused to do: call on Assad to step down.
The administration has assiduously avoided making such a declaration. In May,
Obama said that Assad could either lead the transition to democracy or "get out
of the way." Then, in an executive order approving sanctions against Assad and
his inner circle, Obama said he wanted to "'increase pressure on the government
of Syria to end its use of violence and begin transitioning to a democratic
system that ensures the universal rights of the Syrian people." After Assad's
latest speech, a State Department spokeswoman said, "What is important now is
action, not words. All of these statements assume that it is not too late for
Assad to lead Syria to a more democratic and pluralist society. But that
scenario is improbable at best. Change in Syria will require change at the top.
The administration's reluctance to call for Assad's resignation may reflect a
concern about parallels with Libya, where a declaration that Moammar Kadafi had
to go was followed by a U.N.-authorized air campaign. Though ostensibly designed
to protect civilians, the operation quickly mutated into an attempt to remove
Kadafi. That's a sobering precedent, but it needn't determine what the U.S. does
with Assad. Besides, NATO and the U.N. do not seem interested in a military
campaign against Syria.
So what is the point of a statement by the United States that Assad most go if
it doesn't presage military intervention? The short answer is that it would put
this country squarely on the side of those who are fighting for democracy in
Syria and who realize that it cannot come about until Assad is gone. And
although it shouldn't get involved militarily, the United States can still exert
leverage with additional, tougher sanctions and discussions with groups that
might come to power in a post-Assad Syria.
The United States has been criticized for reacting with hesitancy and
ambivalence to the so-called Arab Spring, especially in Egypt and Bahrain. But
there is no reason to temporize when it comes to Syria. Obama needs to say the
words "He must go."
Jumblatt says
his bloc will not cover for “vengeful actions”
June 21, 2011 /National Front Struggle leader MP Walid Jumblatt said on Tuesday
that his parliamentary bloc will not participate in any “vengeful actions,”
adding that it will also not cover up for such behavior. “Our participation in
the cabinet was based on that,” the National News Agency quoted Jumblatt as
saying. However, he added that the bloc agreed to holding those who broke the
law accountable but based on the “adopted procedure.” Jumblatt also said that
parties, which are part of the new cabinet, can guarantee their success by
avoiding any issue that raises political and media debates, adding that
controversies only lead to more tension. “Let us give the new cabinet a chance
to restore confidence [in the state]. Let us [quit] debates and accusations and
get to work.”The new Lebanese cabinet was formed last week after almost five
months of deliberations between the March 8 parties. The March 14 coalition had
announced it will not take part in Najib Mikati’s government.
-NOW Lebanon
Estonian FM: Kidnapped cyclists
‘alive’
Matt Nash, June 21, 2011
Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet said seven of his country’s nationals
kidnapped in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley in March “are alive” but refused to provide
details on the investigation for fear of compromising it.Speaking to reporters
during his third visit to Lebanon since the kidnapping, Paet said he met with
several Lebanese officials who told him that based on “analysis [of information
gathered so far] and all [the] pieces of information we get every week, or every
day, we may say that our people are alive.”
He gave little new information, noting the kidnappers – who initially claimed to
be from the previously unheard of group Haraket al-Nahda Wal-Islah (Movement for
Renewal and Reform) – have yet to present any demands. In the second video of
the abducted men yet to be released, all are shown in a group as one; Kalev
Kaosaar, begs for help and implores the Estonian government to meet the
kidnappers’ demands. When asked whether the Estonians, who were abducted while
riding their bicycles in the Bekaa on March 23 shortly after returning to
Lebanon from Syria, Paet said, “I don’t have any proof. But you have to look at
the area where it happened.”
The cyclists were taken near the town of Zahle and suspicions first fell on the
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command, a group close to
Damascus that runs training camps along Lebanon’s porous eastern border with
Syria. “You know better than me, there are certain areas where Syrian assistance
can make a difference,” he said. “If the Syrians can assist, then, of course, I
hope that they do. To engage them more in a positive way to look into what they
can do and how they can assist, I think the best people for this are here –
politicians in Lebanon who have professional contacts with neighboring
countries.”Paet said that there “has been a certain amount of cooperation” with
Syrian authorities, but “the domestic problems in Syria engage lots of attention
of security and other forces in [the country].”The Foreign Minister denied any
link between Estonia’s support for sanctions against Syria – which was
reportedly delayed because of fear for the cyclists’ safety – and the current
investigation.Paet met President Michel Sleiman, Army commander Jean Khawaji,
Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati and the newly appointed ministers of
Interior and Foreign Affairs, Marwan Charbel and Adnan Mansour, respectively.
Lebanon has arrested several suspects in the crime but who committed it and why
remain a mystery. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the first video of the
kidnapped men, posted on YouTube in late April, was uploaded in Damascus.
Tripoli heats up after clashes
Nadine Elali, June 21, 2011
Tensions ran high over the weekend in Lebanon’s mainly-Sunni northern city of
Tripoli after clashes erupted Friday afternoon and lasted until Sunday. The
fighting occurred between Alawite residents of the Jabal Mohsen neighborhood and
Sunnis in Bab al-Tabbaneh over an anti-Syrian regime rally the latter were
staging on Friday. Seven people were killed and many more injured.
While Prime Minister Najib Mikati accused the March 14 opposition of instigating
the instability in rejection of the new March 8 cabinet, demonstrators say that
the rally included people of different affiliations and aimed at supporting the
Syrian opposition being targeted by the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
Samir, who asked that his real name not be printed for security reasons, is a
40-year-old mechanic from Bab al-Tabbaneh and one of the rally organizers. He
told NOW Lebanon that the demonstration involved people from across the
political spectrum, including March 8 supporters.
“The rally was in support of the Syrian people who are being slaughtered,” Samir
said. “No one is saying anything to support these people, and we feel for them.
Bab al-Tabbaneh has seen what the Assad regime can do; the memory of it is
engraved in our minds,” he said, citing the 1986 massacre in which members of
Jabal Mohsen’s Arab Democratic Party, the Syrian Social Nationalist Party and
the Syrian Baath party killed over 1,000 Sunni Bab al-Tabbaneh residents
overnight.
Thousands rallied, according to Samir, some gathering at Tal Square in central
Tripoli and others in the Bab al-Tabbaneh area. As the latter group reached
Syria Street, which divides Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen, clashes broke out.
“We were chanting, ‘Allahu Akbar [God is the Greatest],’ and ‘The people want to
bring down the regime,’ when suddenly boys from Jabal and others among the
demonstrators got into a quarrel, then they started throwing stones at us,”
Samir said. “The Lebanese army told us not to react and to continue walking.
Then a grenade was thrown in our direction. It fell right between us and the
army, and two were hurt. Then firing broke out from everywhere.”
The army intervened, and Khodor Masri, a well-known Bab al-Tabbaneh resident who
is a strong supporter of Prime Minister Najib Mikati and who leads a group of
armed men in the neighborhood, was injured. “His fate is still unknown due to
the fear of the repercussions that the news of his death might have,” Samir
said.
Hani, a 40-year-old Tabbaneh resident who also asked that his name be changed,
said that he was at home having lunch when he received a call from a friend
telling him that clashes had broken out. “I went down to the street, closed my
store, got my weapons and when to the scene,” Hani told NOW Lebanon.
Refaat Eid, head of the Arab Democratic Party, an official of which was killed
in the clashes, blames March 14 for causing the unrest.
“The organizers are groups of Islamist extremists who were sent from the
[Internal Security Forces] Information Branch. It was they who shot Khodor Masri,”
Eid said. “We know where the Information Branch gets its orders from, and we
know where [ISF Director General Ashraf] Rifi’s loyalties lie.”
“At these moments, you can never know where the firing is coming from,” Mahmoud,
a 35-year-old carpenter who was at the rally, said. “Just like when the grenade
was thrown, no one knew who threw it, some say from Jabal, some say from
Tabbaneh, and others say it is a third party seeking to create strife. But we
all know who benefits from instigation in this city, we all know it’s the Syrian
regime.” Mahmoud says that Bab al-Tabbaneh has had its share of violence from
the Syrian regime. “[The 1986 massacre] is an old wound that will never heal,
and the events in Syria are reminding us of it,” he said. “There are many
refugees from Syria in Tabbaneh currently,” said Mahmoud. “Many have married
Syrians and have relatives who are coming to stay with them. They tell us what
is happening, other than what we see on news channels and follow on the
internet. Every person from Tabbaneh is against the Syrian regime; don’t let
anyone tell you different. They may differ in Lebanese politics, but when it
comes to the regime, they unite against it.”
Lebanon frees Syrians held for not having identity papers
June 21, 2011 /Agence France Presse
BEIRUT: Lebanon's authorities have released all Syrian refugees in Lebanon who
had been detained for not having identity papers, activists said on Tuesday.
"Lebanese authorities have now released all Syrians who fled into Lebanon and
were later detained for not having identity papers," human rights lawyer Nabil
Halabi, who heads the Lebanese Institute for Democracy and Human Rights, told
AFP.Sheikh Mazen Mohammed, the imam of a mosque in the northern city of Tripoli,
said authorities had released 21 Syrians overnight."They had been kept in
custody as they did not have proper identification when they were found during
the time refugees were en masse arriving to north Lebanon," Mohammed told
AFP.Mohammed, an activist who has been helping the refugees settle in north
Lebanon, said Prime Minister Najib Mikati had been in regular contact with
Lebanese security forces to ensure the refugees were released. Syrian opposition
activists along with at least 5,000 refugees have fled to Lebanon since protests
against the rule of Bashar al-Assad broke out in Syria in March.More than 1,300
people have been killed and at least 10,000 others detained as Syrian forces
crack down on protesters, according to rights groups.
The unrest in neighbouring Syria has increasingly been a point of contention
among the residents of Tripoli, a mainly Sunni Lebanese city with a minority
Alawite community.
Seven people were killed on Friday in clashes in Tripoli that pitted Sunni
supporters of Lebanon's pro-Western opposition against Alawites loyal to a
Hezbollah-led coalition backed by Syria and Iran.The armed clashes erupted
shortly after some 600 people gathered for a protest against the Assad regime.
What Are The Implications of
Hezbollah’s Rise In Lebanon
By Palash R. Ghosh /June 21, 2011 T
Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran, has gained a majority of seats in
Lebanon’s new cabinet. The move has led to much concern both in the West and
Israel about what this development could mean. The U.S. State Department
released the following terse statement when the news of Hezbollah’s emergence
came out: “We’ll judge [the new government in Lebanon] by its actions. What’s
important in our mind is that the new Lebanese government abides by the Lebanese
Constitution, that it renounces violence, including efforts to exact retribution
against former government officials, and lives up to all its international
obligations.”
International Business Times spoke with Dilshod Achilov, a professor of
political science at East Tennessee State University, in Johnson City, Tenn.,
about the rise of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the possible repercussions,
IBTIMES: Hezbollah and its allies will own a majority of Lebanon’s new cabinet
(16 out of 30 seats). Does this ratio reflect the popularity of Hezbollah among
the Lebanese people?
ACHILOV: Even though Lebanon is ethnically an Arab nation, it is highly divided
along religious identities.
Being a highly fractionalized country, Lebanon’s political platform is
vigorously contested by three main political forces represented by Sunnis,
Shi’ites and Maronite Christians. Hezbollah represents the Shi’ites who are
backed by Iran and Syria.
Over the past few decades, Hezbollah’s political leverage has been increasing in
Lebanon. However, Hezbollah does not enjoy dominant popular support in Lebanon;
in fact, it is seen as a destabilizing force within the country by many.
In this context, it is premature to link the rise of new Hezbollah- led
government to a large-scale popularity. It is important to highlight,
nonetheless, that the Lebanese grew frustrated at not having a functional
government for more than five months after the government of Saad Hariri’s
government collapsed last January.
Overall, having a government at last, after long five months, was welcomed but
yet to prove stable
Overall, having a government at last, after long five months, was welcomed but
yet to prove stable.
IBTIMES: Hezbollah toppled the coalition government of former Prime Minister
Saad Hariri (and is believed to have murdered his father Rafiq). If Lebanon is a
democratic, secular nation, doesn’t Hezbollah pose a dire threat?
ACHILOV: Despite political instabilities, Lebanon, for many years, has been a
relatively strong democratic Arab state. Hezbollah is not just a paramilitary
organization. Rather, it emerged as a major political, social, economic and
highly sophisticated network within Lebanon.
Being a paramilitary organization, Hezbollah could conceivably pose a threat to
a religiously diverse, politically divided Lebanon. However, it is hard to
imagine a consolidated democracy with Hezbollah in power that takes orders from
Iran and Syria – both of which are authoritarian states.
It is ironic that Hezbollah often criticizes Sunni- and Christian- led
governments and claims that they allow foreign meddling (mainly the U.S.) in
internal affairs while Hezbollah itself represents a clear foreign intervention
(mainly from Iran, Syria) in Lebanese politics.
Hezbollah uses its military capability to withstand against Israel to appeal to
the public for support.
In any case, if coalitions are built with a consensus (among competing
factions), and if elections are fair, frequent and free, the choice of the
Lebanese (regardless of winning party’s ideology) must be respected as should be
for any democracy.
IBTIMES: What factions in Lebanon support Hezbollah? Who opposes them?
ACHILOV: Lebanon has fought several wars with Israel. The factions that view
Hezbollah as the only security option against Israel, apart from the Lebanese
army, mainly support Hezbollah. Predominantly, the Lebanese Shi’ites make up the
core of Hezbollah.
Especially after the 2006 Israel-Lebanon conflict, Hezbollah’s popularity as a
strong deterring paramilitary force against Israel rose to a new high. In this
context, the core of Hezbollah’s political power stems from its strong military
capability and the large network of social services it provides in the south.
IBTIMES: Why do Iran and Syria support Hezbollah?
ACHILOV: Iranian and Syrian support for Hezbollah is three-dimensional:
religious, ideological and strategic.
Hezbollah has religious kinship and ideological alliance with Ayatollah of Iran
and Alawite (a Shi’a sect) rule in Syria. Strategically, both Iran and Syria
view Hezbollah as their proxy power player in Lebanon. Both use Hezbollah to
exert control over Lebanese politics and counterweight against Israel.
IBTIMES: The U.S. supported Saad Hariri, but why did the Saudis endorse him,
too?
ACHILOV: Najib Mikati, a billionaire and an experienced Sunni politician,
managed to form a government with Hezbollah’s support (which still needs to pass
a confidence vote in the parliament).
The Saudi stance against Hezbollah has always been mixed. Historically, the
Saudis silently supported Hezbollah against Israel, but actively refuted its
ideology and argued that Hezbollah represents an “arm” (extension) of Iran in
Lebanon.
Most likely, Saudi elites realize that it is hard to imagine a stable government
without Hezbollah and that a programmatic-utilitarian approach is necessary. In
the end, Saudi Arabia remains committed to pursue efforts to curb Iran’s
influence on Hezbollah and the Arab world in general.
IBTIMES: Does Hezbollah dominate the Lebanese military?
ACHILOV: Hezbollah acts separately and independently from the Lebanese army. It
views itself as a separate paramilitary, popular movement dedicated to protect
Lebanon.
The Lebanese army has no power or capacity to control or confront Hezbollah. But
the fact is, Lebanon virtually never had a strong military; the military arsenal
(air, sea and ground firepower) was, and still is, very poor.
Also, the Lebanese military has suffered from divisions stemming from religious
identities. While Lebanon is now trying to modernize its military, Hezbollah
still remains the most powerful, viable and independent military unit (with
relatively sophisticated weapons transferred from Iran via Syria) in Lebanon.
IBTIMES: Given Syria’s own internal troubles, does the rise of Hezbollah in
Lebanon mean much to them at this point?
ACHILOV: The rise of Hezbollah is a strategic victory for Syria. But the
president of Syria, Bashar Al-Assad, is highly concerned about his (regime’s)
own fate at this time.
Overall, it is good for Syria since the new Hezbollah-dominated government may
explicitly or implicitly support Assad politically. However, the foundations of
Alawite-led regime of Syria is shaking as we speak. Hezbollah is also highly
concerned by this. The incumbent Syrian regime is extremely important to
Hezbollah for tactical, strategic and financial reasons since Syria is an
important corridor to Iran.
If the Baathist regime in Syria fails, the corridor that connects Iran with
Hezbollah will be in danger.
IBTIMES: What is Iran’s current role in Lebanon? Why do they even care about
this tiny country?
ACHILOV: Iran is everything to Hezbollah; likewise, Hezbollah means the world to
Iran. Iran views Hezbollah as a strategic and tactical weapon against Israel and
the U.S.
And the fact that Iran does not have many allies in the region, Lebanon is an
important regional gateway and a means for Iran’s increasing political leverage
in the Middle East.
Had there been no (military, ideological and financial) support from Iran,
Hezbollah would not be as strong as it is today. Lebanon is important for Iran
since Hezbollah acts as its influential ambassador in the country.
IBTIMES: The US designates Hezbollah as a terrorist group – but are they are
extreme as, say, al-Qaeda?
ACHILOV: Hezbollah started out as a small militia organization against the
Israeli occupation of Lebanon in 1980s. Initially, the purpose of Hezbollah was
to drive out Israeli forces from Lebanon; it was successful in accomplishing
this, in fact. Hezbollah is also notoriously well-known for adapting and using
terrorist tactics such as suicide bombings and kidnappings to reach its ends.
These tactics, alleged/linked attacks and the strong rhetoric (e.g., destruction
of Israel and the U.S. bases) caused Hezbollah to be listed as a terrorist
organization.
But Hezbollah is not as extreme as Al-Qaida, for instance. But that does not
mean that Hezbollah is not dangerous. While Al-Qaida views the West as a
legitimate target as a whole, Hezbollah’s mission seems to be more narrow and
regionally focused – primarily against Israel.
IBTIMES: Hezbollah was formed in 1982 with Iran’s support to fight Israel’s
invasion of Lebanon. But what is Hezbollah’s long-term strategy – is it just to
destroy Israel? Or do they want to turn Lebanon into a fundamentalist Islamic
state?
ACHILOV: As claimed by its leadership, Hezbollah is a popular Shi’a movement
committed to fighting Israel and liberate the parts of southern Lebanon (Shebaa
farms) from Israel. Ideologically, Hezbollah would probably envision an
Iranian-type of theocratic state for Lebanon; but this is almost impossible
given the Lebanese demographics. Hezbollah knows it well, too.In the long run,
Hezbollah will be committed to maintaining its political leverage and influence
to push its interests within Lebanese politics as much and as long as possible.
IBTIMES: Obviously, Hezbollah’s rise in Lebanon poses a greater danger to
Israel, no?
ACHILOV: Yes, the rise of Hezbollah poses a serious threat to Israel.
Israel is, understandably and rightly, concerned about its existence and
security. The most viable and more immediate security danger to Israel (in the
whole region) is probably Hezbollah.
The summer of 2006 Israel-Lebanon war was a main learning moment for the Jewish
state in which Israel failed to stop Hezbollah’s daily barrage of missiles for
weeks. That war showed that Hezbollah is far more sophisticated, organized and
dangerous than previously thought.
IBTIMES: Why does it seem that so many top Lebanese politicians (like Hariri and
Mikati) are very wealthy men? Is Lebanon rife with corruption?
ACHILOV: Despite being a non-rentier state (not being an oil-rich state),
Lebanon is a relatively wealthy and prosperous Arab country in comparison to
other non-oil-rich states in the region. Lebanon is a capitalist economy with a
strong service-driven industry, tourism and banking sector.
The level of skillful workforce is probably the highest in the Arab world. The
economic climate and financial structure of Lebanon system allow citizens to
engage in innovative entrepreneurship and get very wealthy as a result.
But corruption is also big and rife in the country. In 2010, The Transparency
International ranked Lebanon 127th least corrupt state (with a score of 2.5 out
of 10) in the world out of 178 countries. As a comparison, Saudi Arabia ranked
50th least corrupt with a score of 4.7, Afghanistan’s score was 1.4. (176th
least corrupt) and the U.S. fared at 7.1 (20th least corrupt). Wealth and
political power go hand-in-hand in the Middle East politics.
Lebanon is not an exception. It is hard to speculate, however, about the
possible corruption among the top Lebanese elites without evidence or tangible
prosecutions.
IBTIMES: What is your near-term outlook for Lebanon if Hezbollah gains power?
Social unrest, more repression?
ACHILOV: Most likely, Lebanese citizens will carefully watch the current new
government and scrupulously evaluate its efficiency and policy outcomes. If a
Hezbollah-dominated government fails to deliver viable economic policies,
reforms, security and stability for Lebanon, than we likely will see this
government collapse or even political and social unrest.
Political repression by the incumbent government is very distant and unlikely.
Looking ahead, social and/or political unrest is a high possibility if this
government fails to deliver socio-economic goods, security and most importantly
- stability.
If Hezbollah has more weight in government today, it is not warranted that it
will always stay like this or that it will last long. The current government may
collapse in the near future if Mikati fails to effectively channel all the
competing voices of all government ministers.
The elite consensus of competing factions will be a key factor in months to come