LCCC
ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِJuly
10/2011
Bible Quotation for today
Matthew 18:6: "But if anyone
causes one of these little ones who believe in me to sin, it would be better for
him to have a large millstone hung around his neck and to be drowned in the
depths of the sea".
Latest
analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases
from
miscellaneous
sources
Syrians under the protection of the
ambassadors/By
Tariq Alhomayed/July
09/11
Examining Hezbollah’s Activities in
the Americas/By
Carlton Purvis/July
09/11
The Hezbollah Apocalyps/By:
Nicholas Noe/July
09/11
Syria’s rival hegemons/By:
Caroline B.Click/July
09/11
The game in
Syria/Editorial
By The Daily Star/July
09/11
Latest News Reports From
Miscellaneous Sources for July 09/11
Body of Lebanese Man Killed in DRC
Plane Crash Found/Naharnet
Report: Hizbullah Anti-Terrorism
Act to be Approved in Fall/Naharnet
US, French envoys signal Assad: If
army storms Hama, Turkish troops march in/DEBKAfile
Iran says its missiles have reached
Indian Ocean for first time/Haaretz
New U.S. defense chief: Defeat of
al-Qaida 'within reach'/Haaretz
South Sudan Becomes World’s Newest
Nation/Naharnet
Sudan Recognizes Republic of
South Sudan/Naharnet
Egypt Appoints New Information
Minister/Naharnet
Human Rights Watch: Syria troops
describe shooting protesters/Haaretz
Canada Welcomes Independence of
South Sudan/Canadian Government
13 Dead, 40 Hurt in Syria: Half a
Million Flood Hama amid Demos in Central Damascus/Naharnet
STL Spokesman Reiterates Bellemare
Won’t Debate Probe in Media/Naharnet
US sends message to Syria, Congress with diplomacy/AP
U.S. emboldens Hama protesters/Daily
Star
Lebanon sees no big Syrian cash flow -senior banker/Reuters
Maronite patriarch treks through northern towns and villages/Daily Star
France 'concerned' by Lebanon's
stance on tribunal/The Daily Star
Mikati extends his hand to
March 14 coalition/Daily Star
Miqati from Serail: I Urge
Cooperation between Opposition, Pro-Cabinet Forces to Achieve Nation’s Interest/Naharnet
Interior Minister Marwan Charbel
says indictment procedures making progress/Daily
Star
Asarta Visits Newly Deployed Irish
UNIFIL Battalion/Naharnet
Hariri to make TV appearance
Tuesday: report/The Daily Star
Lebanon's
Arabic press digest - July 9, 2011/The Daily Star
Lebanon: Judge orders arrest of
woman over Justice Palace bomb hoax/Now Lebanon
Mikati has no power to decide on
STL, says MP Samir al-Jisr/Now Lebanon
Lebanese
Cabinet to Start Dealing with 1,500
Issues Starting Thursday/Naharnet
Miqati Travels to Italy, Says March
14 Wants to Paralyze him to Regain Power/Naharnet
Minister
Faisal Karami Slams STL, Says
Bellemare Employee of Lebanon/Naharnet
Estonian Ministry Sends Videos of 7
Kidnapped Men to their Relatives/Naharnet
US, French envoys signal Assad: If army storms Hama,
Turkish troops march in
DEBKAfile Special Report July 9, 2011,
The visits the American and French ambassadors, Robert Ford and Eric Chevalier,
paid to Hama Friday, July 8, in the thick of the half-million turnout in Orontes
Square, were more than just a provocative gesture of solidarity with the forces
rallying to oust Bashar Assad; they provided a rare glimpse of the joint effort
underway between Barack Obama, Nicolas Sarkozy and Tayyip Erdogan to solve an
Arab Revolt conflict by compromise.
Ambassador Ford visited Hama twice – the first time Thursday. He made a point of
showing Washington's
outrage at the Assad regime's barbaric use of tank artillery, snipers and abuse
to suppress the nearly four-month uprising by a visit to Hourani Hospital. There
he watched the casualties of Syrian military fire being brought in, including 26
fatalities.
Those visits sparked a sharp exchange: The Syrian Interior Ministry accused the
US ambassador of meeting "saboteurs and inciting them to violence, protest and
rejection of dialogue," which the authorities say will begin on Sunday, July 10.
debkafile sources report that Assad has selected 244 Syrian figures for inviting
to the talks. None represent the protesters or any part of the real opposition
to his rule.
Damascus condemned the envoy's visits to Hama as "proof that Washington was
playing a role in 15 weeks of unrest." The US State Department rejected the
Syrian charge, saying the American envoy was welcomed with flowers and olive
branches by peaceful civilians seeking change. They also chanted "No to
dialogue!" and "Down with the regime!"
In Washington, Syrian ambassador Imad Mustapha was summoned to the State
Department and warned to stop his staff spying on Syrian residents rallying
against the Syrian ruler and threatening to harm their families back home.
Notwithstanding these harsh exchanges, debkafile's Middle East sources report
that the Ambassadors' Hama visits were part of a complicated, high-stakes
diplomatic maneuver undertaken by the US, French and Turkish leaders to forge a
compromise between Assad and opposition leaders that would leave the president
in place provided he accepted democratic reforms and agreed to make room for
political opponents in government.
Four steps have been taken in this direction:
1. By announcing the start of dialogue with the opposition, Assad feels he is
meeting a key condition for staying in power:
2. He has held back from a major military assault on the center of Hamas where
demonstrators mass day by day and opted for dialogue rather than repeating the
massacre his father ordered in 1982 which left at least 25,000 dead. The army
has so far been restricted to forays on the town's outskirts;
3. The two ambassadors could not have visited the flashpoint city unless the
military checkpoints at its approaches had been forewarned to let them through
and the protesters' leaders tipped off to expect them. This concurrence between
the two sides over the diplomats' presence in Hama was treated by them as a
hopeful sign for the coming "national dialogue."
4. At the same time, 400 kilometers from Hama, Turkish troops are ranged on the
border prepared to march into Syria and carve out a 800-square kilometer buffer
zone between the Syrian, Iraqi and Turkish borders and the Mediterranean.
Our sources report this enclave would serve two objects:
One would be to provide asylum under Turkish military protection for Syrian
refugees in flight from their homes. Ankara is anxious to keep down the numbers
entering Turkey and plans to relocate the 25,000 already housed in tent cities
there into the enclave.
The other would be to provide Syrian opposition leaders with a stronghold and a
safe place to establish an alternative administration to the Assad regime in
Damascus.
The Syrian conflict is now at a standoff: A massacre in Hama at the hands of the
Syrian army would trigger a Turkish military incursion into Syria.
At the same, time, debkafile's sources stress, not all the protesters of the
largely Muslim town of Hama are in favor of US-French-Turkish tactics. While
some greeted Ambassador Ford's car with flowers and olive branches, others made
a bonfire of American dollars in Orontes Square.
Canada Welcomes
Independence of South Sudan
(No. 196 – July 9, 2011 – 7:35 a.m.) John Baird, Canada’s Foreign Affairs
Minister, today issued the following statement regarding the independence of
South Sudan:
“The Government of Canada welcomes South Sudan into the community of nations as
an independent state. After decades of conflict and underdevelopment, this
historic occasion represents an important opportunity for the people of South
Sudan to build a brighter, better future for themselves. We encourage the
leaders of South Sudan to do all they can to deliver on this promise.
“I will write to my South Sudanese counterpart, as soon as he or she is named,
for the purpose of establishing diplomatic relations with the Republic of South
Sudan.
“Canada hopes that Sudan and South Sudan will use dialogue to resolve any
outstanding issues between them and work toward becoming two viable states that
are at peace internally and with each other.
“Canada will continue to focus on stability in the Sudans. Since 2006, the
Government of Canada has contributed more than $885 million toward humanitarian
assistance, development and peacebuilding in the region.”
Deepak Obhrai, Parliamentary Secretary to Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister,
represented Canada and Prime Minister Stephen Harper at the independence
ceremony in Juba, South Sudan.
Judge orders arrest of woman over Justice Palace bomb hoax
July 9, 2011 /Attorney General Judge Said Mirza ordered the arrest of a woman
identified as M.Sh.Sh. for calling in a hoax bomb threat at the Baabda Justice
Palace. “The woman, along with her brother who is currently in Canada, made the
warning calls on June 24 and July 8 and demanded the Justice Palace [be
evacuated] in order to postpone the hearing of a man arrested for drug charges,”
the National News Agency reported. The report also said that Mirza ordered the
arrest after a series of investigations – which revealed the identity of the
woman – were launched in collaboration with the Telecommunications Ministry. The
Baabda Justice Palace was evacuated several times after bomb threats were called
more than once over the past month. -NOW Lebanon
Report: Hizbullah Anti-Terrorism Act to be Approved in Fall
Naharnet /The Hizbullah Anti-Terrorism Act is still under discussion by the U.S.
House Committee on Foreign Affairs and is likely to be adopted in the fall,
congressional sources told As Safir daily Saturday. U.S. Congressman Howard
Berman has introduced the HATA that sets rigorous requirements for the provision
of foreign assistance to Lebanon during periods when Hizbullah is part of the
majority governing coalition. The cosponsors of HATA include three Congressmen
of Lebanese origin -Darrell Issa, Charles Boustany, and Nick Rahall.
Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is
seeking to introduce stronger wordings in the Act but without making major
amendments to it, the congressional sources told As Safir. However, the
legislation is likely to be approved after the summer vacation of Congress that
lasts from August 8 till September 5, they said.
The report came amid growing concern in the U.S. over Hizbullah’s influence in
Latin America and its implications on U.S. Homeland security.
The Committee on Homeland Security’s Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and
Intelligence held a hearing on the issue on Thursday.
Roger Noriega from the American Enterprise Institute said in his remarks that
Hizbullah acts as a proxy for Iran, specifically, of the Qods Force of the
Iranian Revolutionary Guards. “These determined and deadly enemies of the United
States have made substantial progress in the last six years to expand their
influence and operations in Latin America.”
“Hizbullah operatives have provided weapons and explosives training to drug
trafficking organizations that operate along the U.S. border with Mexico and
have sought to radicalize Muslim populations in several Mexican cities,” he
said. Noriega expected to see the Shiite party presence in Latin America become
more active and deadly in the coming years.
Researcher at The International Assessment and Strategy Center Douglas Farah
said that in addition to its growing presence in Latin America, Hizbullah has a
smuggling network in West Africa to move contraband diamonds and other
commodities. It is now involved in the trafficking of cocaine from Latin America
to Europe, he said.
Melani Cammett, who is Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of
Middle East Studies Program at Brown University, said during the hearing that
the Special Tribunal for Lebanon “continues to destabilize Lebanese politics,
with Hizbullah declaring its firm opposition to the proceedings and attempting
to undermine the investigation’s credibility, particularly after prosecutors
announced the indictments of four Hizbullah members.” She said, however, that
there is no evidence that the Shiite party aims to launch global operations, as
carried out by Sunni extremist groups such as al-Qaida. “To the contrary, the
organization has explicitly and repeatedly condemned the indiscriminate,
large-scale acts of violence perpetrated by Sunni extremists,”.
Mikati has no power to decide on STL, says MP Samir
al-Jisr
July 9, 2011 /Future bloc MP Samir al-Jisr said on Saturday that Prime Minister
Najib Mikati does not have the authority to take any decision regarding the
UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), which is probing former PM Rafik
Hariri’s 2005 assassination. “Mikati does not want to confront the international
community, but he does not have [the power] to make any decisions,” Jisr told
the Voice of Lebanon (100.5) radio station, in a reference to Hezbollah’s
alleged control of the government.
The MP voiced hope that President Michel Sleiman “would be able to play the role
of an arbiter” in the issue of the tribunal, which is considered by Hezbollah to
be a “US-Israeli tool that intends to implicate” the Shia group in Rafik
Hariri’s murder. “We will not [make concessions] regarding the STL,” Jisr added.
The Lebanese government won the parliament’s vote of confidence on Thursday, as
Mikati vowed that his cabinet would cooperate with the STL, that charged four
Hezbollah members in Rafik Hariri’s murder. However, Hezbollah ruled out the
arrests of his party members, while March 14 parties have called on Mikati to
either commit to the tribunal or step down.
-NOW Lebanon
Syrians under the protection of the ambassadors
09/07/2011
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
It is not easy to believe that the American and French ambassadors to Damascus
travelled to Hama to monitor what is happening there with regards to the popular
uprising, not to mention the heavy security cordon being imposed around the city
by the Syrian army, much less that they did this without the knowledge of the
Syrian authorities.
The Syrian regime has been building up the presence of its forces around the
city of Hama over the past week, in preparation for the demonstrations that took
place yesterday on Friday, and in order to ensure that the events of last week's
"Friday of Departure" were not repeated. The entire world closely monitored this
situation, warning that if the Syrian troops entered the city in the manner
expected of them, this would undoubtedly result in a humanitarian
disaster…therefore the international community, including the western
ambassadors to Syria, took action to prevent this from happening.
From here, observers can only express wonder at the Syrian escalation against
the American and French ambassadors, particularly the statement issued by the
Syrian Interior Ministry which stated that "the US ambassador met with saboteurs
in Hama…and he incited these saboteurs to violence, to demonstrate, and to
refuse dialogue." The statement added that "the [Syrian Interior] ministry
wondered at the US ambassador's arrival in Hama contrary to the diplomatic norms
and despite the roadblocks set up by the saboteurs to prevent citizens from
reaching their jobs."
If the Syrian Interior Ministry was truly surprised by the US ambassador's
arrival in Hama despite the presence of roadblocks – according to the statement
– then those monitoring the situation can only wonder how the American and
French ambassadors were able to leave Damascus and reach Hama without the Syrian
Interior Ministry being aware of this. Syria is a police state in every sense of
the word, so how could the Syrian security apparatus not be aware that the two
ambassadors were travelling to Hama? Does this mean that the al-Assad regime's
grip on Syria has finally begun to slacken? This is not all, for when the Syrian
regime says that the American ambassador is inciting violence, merely by
visiting Hama, then the question that immediately comes to mind is: why did the
Syrian regime taken foreign ambassadors – including the US ambassador – on an
official visit of the Jisr al-Shughour area a few weeks ago when the American
ambassador's presence represents "incitement"?
However the unfortunate issue, which the Syrian regime – and its supporters –
have failed to see, is that the people of Hama today are safe and secure because
of the presence of the American and French ambassadors, rather than due to any
wisdom on the part of the Syrian regime. This is does not represent a blemish in
the record of the two ambassadors, but rather in the record of the Syrian regime
that has failed to understand the extent to which it has been implicated in the
eyes of the Syrian citizens. The regime fired the Governor of Hama last week
because he guaranteed the people of the city their safety, whilst today the
regime itself is accusing the people of Hama of treason because two western
ambassadors have joined them. The Damascus regime does not want anybody to see
that the people of Syria are safer under the protection of foreign ambassadors
rather than in the presence of the Syrian security apparatus.
Of course, there are a lot of implication to this, internally and externally.
For the message has reached the people of Syria – of all backgrounds – that were
it not for the presence of foreign ambassadors in Syria than the security
apparatus would have killed the citizens [of Hama], and this simply means that
the legitimacy of the Syrian regime is being eroded in a dramatic fashion.
EU, France 'concerned' by Lebanon's
stance on tribunal
09.07.11/Daily Star/PARIS: France said Friday it was "concerned" by the Lebanese
government's attitude toward the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon into
the murder of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. A Foreign Ministry spokesman
said France had noted Prime Minister Najib Mikati's promise that his
Hezbollah-dominated Cabinet would continue to cooperate with the court.
"We are nevertheless concerned by the formulation used to refer to the Special
Tribunal for Lebanon, which appears to cast doubt over the impartiality and the
professionalism" of the court, spokesman Bernard Valero said. In a statement
released late Thursday EU High Representative Catherine Ashton said Thursday's
vote of confidence was a "welcome development," but added that she was
"concerned by the absence of an explicit commitment to cooperate" with the STL.
The clause regarding the Special Tribunal for Lebanon in the new Cabinet’s
policy statement, which received a narrow vote of confidence in Parliament
Thursday, states that the government “respects international resolutions” and
“will follow the progress of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon,” and has been
criticized by the opposition for lacking a clear commitment to the court. – With
The Daily Star
Interior Minister Marwan Charbel says indictment procedures making progress
July 09, 2011 /By Antoine Ghattas Saab/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Interior Minister Marwan Charbel said Friday that the judicial
authorities entrusted to serve arrest warrants to the four Hezbollah members
indicted by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon had achieved progress in their
mission. “As for the arrest warrants, General Prosecutor Saeed Mirza has tasked
judicial authorities to launch their investigations directly to identify the
locations of the indicted [in order to serve them the arrest warrants],” Charbel
told The Daily Star in an interview.
“They [judicial authorities] are informing him about any new developments, hour
by hour. Based on information I received … progress had been made on this
level,” Charbel said.
The STL, established by the U.N. to prosecute those responsible for the
assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and others, released its
indictment in late June, which included arrest warrants for four Hezbollah
members. For the past year, Hezbollah has dismissed the STL as an “Israeli
project,” while denying involvement.
After the release of the indictment, the party’s leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah
said no one would be able to arrest the four individuals, even in“300 years.”
Charbel said that the protocol of cooperation inked between the STL and Lebanon,
in line with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, had tasked General
Prosecutor Saeed Mirza with following up on the matter.
“In line with applicable laws, he chooses the suitable side to execute the
indictment … I do not know the content of the indictment so far. Not even the
president, the prime minister or any official knows its content,” Charbel said.
Separately, Charbel praised the director general of the Internal Security
Forces, Major General Ashraf Rifi, and rejected the idea of sacking him. There
has been speculation that the March 8-dominated Cabinet of Prime Minister Najib
Mikati would engage in acts of political “vengeance” against state employees who
are seen as allies of the March 14 coalition. “I consider Major General Rifi …
to be a disciplined officer and the most important thing is that he did not
violate the law,” Charbel said. “For me, acts of vengeance are unacceptable. I
do not work in politics, but deal with soldiers.”
Asked whether he had any solution for the security incidents that take place in
the country, Charbel said the ISF would act firmly to keep the peace.
“More than this, we promise that [similar] incidents will not happen again. We
will accompany demonstrations, whether licensed or unlicensed, to prevent the
outbreak of any security incident,” Charbel said. Eight people were killed last
month in the northern city of Tripoli in armed clashes between gunmen from the
predominantly Sunni neighborhood of Bab al-Tabbaneh and the mainly Alawite
district of Jabal Mohsen, shortly after supporters of anti-regime protests in
Syria marched to Bab al-Tabbaneh.
“Security bodies are taking action in all directions to thwart any attempt by
certain sides to tamper with security and stability,” the minister said.
Charbel, whose appointment came as a result of agreement between President
Michel Sleiman and Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, said he would
only refer to the Interior Ministry when encountering a “thorny issue.” “I came
to implement law and create a fundamental nucleus for the state and I have
nothing to do with anything else,” Charbel said.
Asked about his evaluation of the three-day discussions of Mikati’s Cabinet
policy statement at Parliament, which saw heated debates, Charbel said they
exhibited “a breath of democracy.”
“But it was a tough democracy, which saw escalatory positions and foul language,
which harms the image of Parliament,” Charbel noted. Asked what he would promise
the Lebanese, he said, “we promise them to establish a network of security and
to preserve their civil peace, along with ensuring every person his rights.”
Hariri to make TV appearance Tuesday: report July 09, 2011
The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Former prime minister and opposition leader Saad Hariri will make an
appearance Tuesday evening on MTV to discuss the latest developments in Lebanon,
reported Mustaqbal newspaper Saturday. Hariri, whose Cabinet collapsed in
January following a dispute with the Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition over the
Special Tribunal for Lebanon, has been abroad for at least the past month
because of fears of an assassination attempt, Future Movement MP Jamal Jarrah
told the media last month.
The STL was established in 2007 to try those involved in the assassination of
Hariri’s father, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was killed on Feb. 14,
2005, when a massive car bomb detonated his motorcade as he drove past the Saint
George hotel in Ain el-Mreisseh, near Downtown Beirut.
Members of Hezbollah have been indicted by the U.N. court. On June 30, a
delegation from the STL handed Lebanon’s state prosecutor indictments and arrest
warrants against four members of the Lebanese group. Lebanon has 30 days to
carry out the arrest warrants.
Hezbollah has denied involvement in the assassination of statesman Rafik Hariri
and has accused the STL of being a “American-Israeli project” aimed at targeting
the resistance group and sowing civil strife in Lebanon. Sayyed Hasan Nassrallah,
Hezbollah’s leader, described the indictments by the as unjust and said the four
members would not be apprehended, but tried in absentia instead. The Cabinet of
Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who was nominated by the March 8 coalition to
succeed Saad Hariri, won a parliamentary vote of confidence Thursday following
three days of heated debates of its policy statement during which March 14
lawmakers lambasted the prime minister, accusing him of renouncing the STL and
putting the country on a collision course with the international community.
Hariri did not attend the parliamentary sessions.
The game in Syria
July 09, 2011 /Editorial By The Daily Star
A game is afoot in Syria, but it’s one that is not as clear-cut as people might
think.
The United States, European countries and the Arabs are all involved, but the
most striking development arose this week, when the French and American
ambassadors to Syria journeyed to the city of Hama to show solidarity with a
popular uprising there. It would be naïve to think that the ambassadors would
have made the trek without securing some type of official Syrian government
approval beforehand. European countries and the U.S. have made repeated
statements of disapproval and condemnation about the Syrian government’s harsh
crackdown on protesters, but for now, there has been a considerable amount of
smoke but no fire.
Washington has urged Syrian President Bashar Assad to undertake political
reforms, but Assad has been able to claim that he is also a champion of such a
reform movement. Judging by the actions of Europe and the U.S. thus far, the
Syrian regime is safe. The problem lies in the outside world’s double standards
on the bloodshed that has been rampant in the Arab world over the past six
months. The international community has not, is not, and will not act on the
basis of lofty moral principles, but rather on the basis of naked political
interests.
People in this part of the world are often deceived by the rhetoric of foreign
officials, believing that dramatic new developments might be under way, when in
fact the real message is one of “business as usual.” The U.S. supports a host of
regimes throughout the world with records on human rights that would, in another
context, would set off alarm bells.
Arab peoples, and their governments, should become too concerned when they hear
that they have the support of the outside world, or the non-support of the
outside world.
The situation in Libya, for example, should not be taken as a measure of
anything significant when it comes to a country like Syria. The departure of
Libyan leader Moammar Qadhafi will not leave a dramatic regional political
vacuum, while the departure of Assad and his government will have significant
repercussions in neighboring countries, whether it’s Iraq, or Lebanon, or
elsewhere. So far, Washington is offering tacit support for Assad, despite the
news flashes that one might hear from time to time. The U.S. is not in a
position to take the risky move of choosing sides, and is aware that Assad’s
government, in its own way, offers the kind of “security” that Washington and
other foreign capitals are anxious to see.
The most important lesson from this week is that the Arab peoples who are
engaging in courageous public protests should focus on the internal requirements
of their actions. They should not wage on the outside world to help them,
because history has shown that only interests, and nothing else, guide such
policies.
Maronite patriarch treks through northern towns and villages
July 09, 2011/By Antoine Amrieh The Daily Star
BSHARRI, Lebanon: On the way to his summer residence in Diman, Maronite
Patriarch Beshara Rai trekked through a series of towns and villages in the
country’s north Friday, where hundreds of residents welcomed him for the first
time since his election as head of the Maronite Church in March.
Rai’s convoy arrived in the Batroun town of Shekka and was greeted by town
officials and hundreds of enthusiastic local residents.
From the early hours of the day, the town was decorated with billboards, giant
posters of Rai and papal flags to welcome the patriarch.
Bishop George Abu Jaoude, who presides over the Maronite archdiocese of Tripoli,
and Shekka’s mayor, Farjallah Kfoury, welcomed Rai from the crowd of
well-wishers, who had come from the surrounding towns of Kfarhatta, Kalbaata,
Ijd Abrin, Kefraya, Zakroun and Enfeh. “It’s an honor to welcome you [Rai] at
this gathering before your trip to Diman this summer,” Bishop Abu Jaoude said.
Speaking at the Our Lady of Deliverance Church of Shekka, Abu Jaoude said that
Rai’s visit was unique because it was the first to the archdiocese of Tripoli.
Rai also visited the district of Koura Friday and was greeted at the entrance of
the Municipality of Amioun. Amioun Mayor Jerji Barakat and members of the
municipality welcomed Rai as hundreds of Amioun residents flocked to the area to
greet the Maronite patriarch. From Amioun, Rai’s convoy drove to the town of Dar
Baashtar, where many of the faithful followed him toward the Church of St.
George. Later in the evening, Rai arrived at his summer residence in Diman, in
the Cedars above Bsharri. Former Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir, Bishop
Francis Bassiry, Bsharri MP Elie Keyrouz and Bsharri Mayor Elie Makhlouf were on
hand to welcome him. The northern village of Diman is the Maronite
Patriarchate’s summer headquarters and historically most patriarchs have taken
up residence there from July to September. Speaking to the crowd as Rai reached
the Patriarchate’s courtyard of Diman, Bsharri’s mayor said that the Union of
Municipalities of Bsharri supported Rai and his vision in reviving spirituality
in the area. “We place all our capabilities in the service of your initiatives
in leading the Maronite Church toward a new renaissance,” said Makhlouf. Rai
gave his blessings to the crowd and officials who greeted him at Diman and
thanked everyone for the affection they have for the Bsharri region.
Examining Hezbollah’s Activities in the Americas
By Carlton Purvis/Security Management
http://www.securitymanagement.com/news/examining-hezbollah%E2%80%99s-activities-americas-008732
It’s known that Hezbollah has established itself in the tri-border area (TBA) of
South America where Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay meet. It uses the area to
conduct fundraising activities to funnel money back to the Middle East. But over
the last six years, experts say, Hezbollah has made substantial progress in
widening its operations throughout Latin America. Experts agree that Hezbollah
is digging-in in the Americas, but what they don’t agree on is whether the
organization still poses as much of a threat to the United States as it did in
the 1980s.
Support from South American countries like Bolivia and Venezuela has allowed
Hezbollah to operate freely in South America. The group’s ties to the Iranian
government, paired with Iran’s interest in relationships with South American
countries, could be a recipe for disaster, some experts say.
Thursday at a House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and
Intelligence hearing, experts discussed the scope of Hezbollah’s operations in
Latin America and concerns that the group is positioning itself strategically in
and around the United States with the help of Iran.
Iran’s pursuit of diplomacy in South America stems from its desire to put an end
to its former international isolation for the sake of furthering its nuclear
program and getting access to raw uranium in Venezuela, Ilan Berman, and vice
president of the American Foreign Policy said. Furthermore, Iran hopes to build
a coalition in the Americas to lessen the United Sates’ power, he said. And what
better way to loosen a tight grip than to throw in some gremlins.
More than 80 Hezbollah operatives actively operate in 12 countries in the
region, Ambassador Roger F. Noriega testified. Noriega said past intelligence
suggests that Hezbollah uses Latin America to both recruit and train operatives.
In the United States, Hezbollah has active cells in 15 cities from Los Angeles
to New York and “has operational capability to strike a target if it chooses to
do so,”Berman testified. Berman said law enforcement is making the mistake of
addressing Hezbollah as part of the war on drugs rather than acknowledging that
the materials and money gained in Latin America fund a State
Department-designated group of terrorists. Hezbollah is also active in at least
four major cities in Canada, he said.
And although Hezbollah is strapped for cash, Douglas Farah, senior fellow at the
International Assessment and Strategy Center said “they seem to be spending a
lot of resources to stay and operate in this area.”
There is little to indicate the group has plans to attack the United States,
Melani Cammett of Brown University testified. Cammett, the only witness to have
ever directly spoken with members of Hezbollah, said that, based on her
interviews with Hezbollah officials for a book she’s writing on its social
programs, she doesn’t believe Hezbollah is interested in targeting the United
States militarily. Cammet noted that Hezbollah’s acts of violence are almost
exclusively toward Israel, and it hasn’t called for, or planned, any attacks in
the United States since the 1980s.But if Hezbollah isn't targeting the Unites
States, then what are they doing here, Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY) wanted to know.
“To suggest that Hezbollah does not pose a direct threat to the Unites States is
inconsistent in a very compelling way with the facts that are presented here.
You don’t infiltrate an area if you don’t have an intent, and the intent is not
benevolent…. It’s pretty clear to me what their intent is whether it’s immediate
or long term,” he said.
Cammett says the group’s focus in the Americas is on fundraising and sending
money back to strengthen their power in the Middle East – Lebanon in particular.
Many South American supporters of Hezbollah aren’t any more active than
providing occasional donations. Other experts on the panel agreed that at the
moment Hezbollah didn’t present an immediate threat, but they said that it could
in the future.
Witnesses suggested Hezbollah was positioning in the Americas as a defense in
case United States attacked Iran. But when asked by Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas)
how many terrorists have been apprehended that had come through the U.S.
States/Mexico border, the panel had no answers. Farah said close diplomatic ties
with South American countries would allow greater freedom for Hezbollah members
to travel using diplomatic passports so they wouldn’t need to sneak across the
border. Ceullar also noted that the Department of Homeland Security has no
evidence of the existence of Hezbollah training camps south of the border.
The subcommittee concluded by calling for increased action to prevent Latin
American from becoming a safe haven for Hezbollah and other terrorists. “Today’s
hearing was a significant step toward enhancing awareness about Hezbollah’s
activities in Latin America and understanding this very important threat to
America here at home,” chairman Rep. Patrick Meehan (R-Pa.) said.
US sends message to Syria, Congress with diplomacy
By BRADLEY KLAPPER, Associated Press – WASHINGTON (AP) — The Obama
administration sent two distinct messages by dispatching the U.S. ambassador to
Syria to meet anti-regime protesters in a besieged city. To Syrian President
Bashar Assad: Reform now. To critics in the U.S. of its engagement policy: Stop
complaining.
Greeted by demonstrators with roses and cheers, the envoy, Robert Ford, on
Friday finished a two-day trip to the restive city of Hama aimed at driving home
the message that the United States stands with those in the Syrian streets
braving a brutal government crackdown.
The visit prompted fierce reaction from the Syrian regime and a renewed American
warning that Assad was failing to stabilize his country by satisfying the
democratic yearnings of his people.
Ford "had a chance to talk to lots of average citizens — these were shopkeepers,
people out on the street, young men," said Victoria Nuland, the State Department
spokeswoman. "When he got into the city, the car was immediately surrounded by
friendly protesters who were putting flowers on the windshield, they were
putting olive branches on the car, they were chanting 'Down with the regime!' It
was quite a scene."So far, the U.S. government has refused to call for an end to
the Assad family's four-decade dynasty. The government's harsh repression of
dissent has escalated the crisis with protesters increasingly calling for
Assad's ouster after 11 years full of promises of democratic reform but little
change from the iron-fisted rule of his father. The Obama administration has
grown increasingly disgusted with the violence in Syria that has claimed the
lives of 1,600 people plus 350 members of the security forces. Yet it hasn't
mustered sufficient international outrage to secure a U.N. condemnation of
Assad's government or a unified global demand that he step down.
The administration cannot press too hard by itself because the threat of
military action would not be taken seriously while it is trying to wind down
wars in neighboring Iraq and in Afghanistan, and struggling to justify its
participation in an international coalition against Moammar Gadhafi in Libya.
The solution has been to balance stinging criticism of the Assad regime's
conduct with continued pleas for it to lead a democratic transition. But the
measured approach has faced a clamoring at home and in Syria for tougher action.
There has been no U.S. ambassador in Syria for the five previous years in
protest of alleged Syrian involvement in the assassination of a Lebanese
politician who had criticized Syrian domination of his country. Republican
members of Congress have challenged Ford's continued presence in the country,
calling it an unwarranted reward to Assad's often pro-Iran and anti-U.S.
government stance, and untenable in light of recent violence against civilians.
Ford's participation in a Syrian government-organized trip to the country's
north last month didn't help. The State Department said at the time that Ford's
outing to the abandoned town of Jisr al-Shughour allowed him to "see for himself
the results of the Syrian government's brutality." However, he mostly
encountered deserted streets and buildings that wouldn't prove the existence of
a foreign conspiracy to destabilize Syria, as the government claims, or mass
atrocities, as Western governments and human rights groups allege.
Ford has been rebuffed in several attempts to speak directly with senior Syrian
officials.
"Any continued presence of a U.S. ambassador will either be used by the regime
for propaganda purposes or just plain ignored," Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen said
last month. The Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said
Ford's participation in the government trip "compromised U.S. credibility with
freedom and pro-democracy advocates within Syria."
U.S. officials nevertheless insist that Ford is serving a vital role in making
American concerns known to the Syrian government and providing assessments to
policymakers back in Washington. Beyond that, he is providing moral support to
protesters, officials say. Ford's trip allowed him to see firsthand the lies of
the Syrian regime, Nuland told reporters. While the government blames foreign
instigators or armed gangs for unrest, Ford "witnessed average Syrians asking
for change in their country," she said.
In recent days, Hama residents have largely sealed off their city, setting up
makeshift checkpoints with burning tires and concrete blocks to keep security
forces away.
The government seized on Ford's visit to insist that foreign conspirators lay
behind the unrest and called it proof the U.S. was inciting violence in the Arab
nation. The U.S. is trying to "aggravate the situations which destabilize
Syria," the state-run news agency said Friday. Nuland called the claim "absolute
rubbish."
"The reason for his visit was to stand in solidarity with the right of the
Syrian people to demonstrate peacefully," she said.
Nuland also disputed the Syrian argument that Ford's trip was unauthorized,
explaining that the U.S. embassy informed the government ahead of time.
"They really need to focus their attention on what their citizens have to say,
rather than on spending their time picking at Ambassador Ford," Nuland said.
Ford left Hama during Friday prayers ahead of what are usually the week's
largest protests. He returned to Damascus safely Friday afternoon.
Copyright © 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
STL indictments cannot foment sectarian strife in Lebanon
By Hossein Ruivaran
Tehran Times/July 9, 2011
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=243796
The recent indictment issued by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) can be
analyzed from various perspectives.
The stance adopted by Hezbollah Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah has
been expressed in unambiguous language. Hezbollah believes that the decision to
name four members of the Islamic resistance group in the STL indictments was a
completely politicized action and there is no clear evidence supporting the
charges. Hezbollah will not allow these people to be handed over to the STL for
the so-called international investigation into the assassination of former
Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri. Nasrallah openly declared that even if the
tribunal lasts for three hundred years, the Hezbollah members will not be handed
over.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese government has taken the stance that it will cooperate
with the tribunal on the condition that it does not undermine the independence
of the country. The question is whether the government’s decision to cooperate
with the tribunal is going to infringe on Lebanon’s sovereignty or not.
The answer to this question is very important. But, given the fact that the
current government has been formed by a coalition that includes Hezbollah, it
seems highly unlikely that the state prosecutor will hand over these four men.
From this perspective, the new STL indictment has no special implications for
Lebanon’s current situation. In fact, the tribunal will be forced to halt the
proceedings if it is not able to summon these people to court.
However, advocates of the new indictments are making efforts to impose sanctions
on Lebanon to force the government to cooperate with the Western-backed
tribunal. The main issue is whether the call to impose sanctions on the Lebanese
government is a serious threat or just a political maneuver.
The STL has accused four Shias of killing a Sunni, so there is a possibility
that it is meant to be a signal to begin fomenting sectarian strife between
Shias and Sunnis. Therefore, many believe that, backed by certain Western
governments, the tribunal is attempting to provoke Shias and Sunnis into
engaging in a confrontation.
However, based on Hezbollah’s calculations, this devious plot cannot be realized
in Lebanon’s current situation. The revelations made by Nasrallah about what
happened behind the scenes have undermined the credibility of the tribunal.
Moreover, the conspiracies against Lebanon and the STL’s conduct in recent
months show how volatile the tribunal is. The tribunal first blamed Syria, but
now others have been accused. It is possible that the tribunal will make more
mistakes in the future.
But even if these errors are not corrected, the naive attempt to foment
sectarian strife between Shia and Sunni in Lebanon cannot be realized.
**Hossein Ruivaran is a Middle East expert based in Tehran.
Tehran proposes Iran-Lebanon joint committee on abducted diplomats
Tehran Times Political Desk
Tehran Times 09 July/11
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=243799
TEHRAN – A presidential advisor has called for the establishment of a joint
Iranian-Lebanese committee to determine the fate of four Iranian nationals who
were kidnapped in Lebanon in 1982. Maryam Mojtahedzadeh made the proposal
during a meeting with Lebanese President Michel Suleiman on Wednesday.
Four Iranian nationals, chargé d’affaires Mohsen Mousavi, military attaché of
the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ahmad Motevasellian, Taqi Rastegar
Moqaddam, a diplomat from the embassy, and Kazem Akhavan, a reporter and
photographer from the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), were captured by a
Phalangist militia while traveling to southern Lebanon in 1982, then handed over
to the Zionist regime and transferred to a prison in occupied Palestine.
Michel Suleiman also said he feels a moral duty to pursue the case of abducted
Iranian diplomats and promised to take appropriate measures in this regard.
On Iran-Lebanon ties, Suleiman said that Tehran and Beirut enjoy favorable
relations.
The Hezbollah Apocalyps
By: Nicholas Noe | July 8, 2011
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-hezbollah-apocalypse-5581
| July 8, 2011/The National Interest
In the opening weeks of the year 2000, Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, leader of
Lebanon’s militant Shiite movement Hezbollah, granted a series of lengthy
interviews to the Arab media that directly addressed the gravest threat hitherto
seen to his party’s continuation as “The Resistance”: a looming peace agreement
between Syria and Israel.
Acknowledging that such a deal would necessarily obligate Hezbollah as well as
Lebanon (given the tens of thousands of Israeli and Syrian troops occupying
different swaths of the country), Nasrallah answered the provocative question of
what he would do when the Star of David flag was raised over the Israeli embassy
in Beirut by saying that this would, in fact, represent a victory for the
“rationale of resistance” which had forced an end to Israeli occupation. Still,
he and his constituents would “refuse to normalize” the relationship in the
coming years.
No trade, no Israeli tourists visiting South Lebanon, he suggested.
Backs turned.
Crucially though, no rockets and no car bombs.
The end of violent resistance.
The “Syria Track,” of course, collapsed spectacularly in March of 2000, largely
as a result of a dispute over a few hundred meters of shoreline around Lake
Tiberius which the Syrians and the Israelis refused to concede (although U.S.
President Bill Clinton didn’t help matters by lying to the dying president of
Syria, Hafez al-Assad, promising him that he had the shoreline in his pocket as
a means to cajole Assad into coming to Geneva to sign a deal).
Eleven years on from this intensely regrettable episode, Hezbollah again faces a
major existential challenge, but this time the ending, if there is to be one,
looks decidedly more violent and open to all possibilities.
Indeed, much to its surprise and chagrin, the party is now besieged.
The Iranian regime, and the supreme guide for Hezbollah, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
is involved in a bitter power struggle.
Syria, where Hezbollah finds much of its logistical support—or “strategic
depth”—is in crisis.
And it is Hezbollah’s stalwart backing of the Assad regime, which even Hamas has
bucked, that is largely eroding its vital claim to reason and genuine public
support at home and in the Middle East more broadly (even though most of
Hezbollah’s enemies think it relies only on a toxic mixture of fear and
brainwashing to sustain its power, officials and cadres have long deemed the
party’s ability to appeal to reason as indispensable).
In a similar vein, even though the party has done a good job of discrediting the
Special Tribunal for Lebanon that is set to try Hezbollah members (and possibly
others) in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri, the
indictments for the murder of a leading Sunni in the Middle East, when combined
with Hezbollah’s use of arms in May 2008 against its mainly Sunni opponents in
the streets of Beirut, has only exacerbated the sectarian divisions and outright
hatred which many of its opponents—and Hezbollah itself—rightly view as the most
potent offensive weapon it faces in the field.
Across the border in Israel, Nasrallah’s multifaceted strategy and multiple
pronouncements vis-à-vis his most bitter enemy are also fast unravelling.
For the last few years, Nasrallah had been able to masterfully appeal to those
in the region who yearned for a final settlement as well as those who yearned
for a total victory over Zionism.
On the one hand, he exhorted, Hezbollah’s critics and opponents in the Arab
world should use the growing—though still asymmetric—military strength of
Hezbollah and its Resistance Axis allies in the region (mainly Syria, Iran and
Hamas) to force Israel into a two-state, negotiated solution. Though Hezbollah
did not want this to come to pass, he admitted, the only way to get Israel to
change its bargaining position is to increase your side’s military power in the
field.
On the other hand, since the internal contradictions of the Resistance Axis
states were lessening, Nasrallah stressed, while Israel’s were growing, time was
on the side of those who would prefer to patiently wait and see a one-state
solution rise from the internal implosion of Zionism (on account of demography,
emigration as a result of growing fear over military encirclement, corruption,
international deligitamazation etc.).
Unfortunately for Nasrallah, all of the resistance clocks appear to be ticking
down far faster than Israel’s, where the economy is humming along and the United
States is funding a massive effort to “Iron-Dome” the country against the threat
of the Resistance Axis’s rockets and WMDs.
All of this, understandably, begs the question: What will Hezbollah do in this
next stage?
Should Assad’s multiplying list of enemies, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey,
choose to go in for the kill, either bluntly or obliquely, Hezbollah, it now
seems evident after meeting with party officials, is prepared to use all
necessary means to fight back, and fight back widely.
A collapse of the Levant leg of the Resistance Axis is simply unacceptable for
Hezbollah. And seeing no reasonable options for escaping such an outcome in a
"just" manner (a course that was available in March 2000 when the party was
ready to lay down its arms), Hezbollah will have little choice but to become a
part and parcel of one last climactic conflict.
Since the Assad regime’s threshold for doing the same is probably lower (and far
more incendiary with its WMD capability), the actors now consolidating
themselves to boil Assad (and secondarily Hezbollah) to the breaking point,
including many influential voices in Washington and European capitals, need to
very carefully consider the wisdom of the road that they are going down—a road
that will, in all probability, bring great destruction to the region, including
to Israel whose home front will undoubtedly be a main frontline.
Saying this, however, does not have to mean simply withering away in the face of
a threat. Instead, it could mean—it should mean—that outside actors who hold
such comparatively great power (Israel alone could probably bomb both Syria and
Lebanon back into the Stone Age whereas its opponents cannot), might finally
have to find a means and a discourse to grant concessions to far weaker, though
to many still detestable, parties—a course that would actually fatally undermine
their ability and desire to exercise violence over time, either against their
own people or against other nations.
Question: "Is a believer supposed to be able to feel the Holy Spirit?"
GotQuestions.org
Answer: While certain ministries of the Holy Spirit may involve a feeling, such
as conviction of sin, comfort, and empowerment, Scripture does not instruct us
to base our relationship with the Holy Spirit on how or what we feel. Every
born-again believer has the indwelling Holy Spirit. Jesus told us that when the
Comforter has come He will be with us and in us. “And I will ask the Father, and
he will give you another Counselor to be with you forever—the Spirit of truth.
The world cannot accept him, because it neither sees him nor knows him. But you
know him, for he lives with you and will be in you” (John 14:16-17). In other
words, Jesus is sending one like Himself to be with us and in us.
We know the Holy Spirit is with us because God's Word tells us that it is so.
Every born-again believer is indwelt by the Holy Spirit, but not every believer
is controlled by the Holy Spirit, and there is a distinct difference. When we
step out in our flesh, we are not under the control of the Holy Spirit even
though we are still indwelt by Him. The apostle Paul comments on this truth, and
he uses an illustration that helps us to understand. “Do not get drunk on wine,
which leads to debauchery. Instead, be filled with the Spirit” (Ephesians 5:18).
Many people read this verse and interpret it to mean that the apostle Paul is
speaking against wine. However, the context of this passage is the walk and the
warfare of the Spirit-filled believer. Therefore, there is something more here
than just a warning about drinking too much wine.
When people are drunk with too much wine, they exhibit certain characteristics:
they become clumsy, their speech is slurred, and their judgment is impaired. The
apostle Paul sets up a comparison here. Just as there are certain
characteristics that identify someone who is controlled by too much wine, there
should also be certain characteristics that identify someone who is controlled
by the Holy Spirit. We read in Galatians 5:22-24 about the “fruit” of the
Spirit. This is the Holy Spirit’s fruit, and it is exhibited by the born-again
believer who is under His control.
The verb tense in Ephesians 5:18 indicates a continual process of “being filled”
by the Holy Spirit. Since it is an exhortation, it follows that it is also
possible to not be filled or controlled by the Spirit. The rest of Ephesians 5
gives us the characteristics of a Spirit-filled believer. “Speak to one another
with psalms, hymns and spiritual songs. Sing and make music in your heart to the
Lord, always giving thanks to God the Father for everything, in the name of our
Lord Jesus Christ. Submit to one another out of reverence for Christ” (Ephesians
5:19-21).
We are not filled with the Spirit because we feel we are, but because this is
the privilege and possession of the Christian. Being filled or controlled by the
Spirit is the result of walking in obedience to the Lord. This is a gift of
grace and not an emotional feeling. Emotions can and will deceive us, and we can
work ourselves up into an emotional frenzy that is purely from the flesh and not
of the Holy Spirit. “So I say, live by the Spirit, and you will not gratify the
desires of the sinful nature … Since we live by the Spirit, let us keep in step
with the Spirit” (Galatians 5:16, 25).
Having said that, we cannot deny that there are times when we can be overwhelmed
by the presence and the power of the Spirit, and this is often an emotional
experience. When that happens, it is a joy like no other. King David “danced
with all his might” (2 Samuel 6:14) when they brought up the Ark of the Covenant
to Jerusalem. Experiencing joy by the Spirit is the understanding that as
children of God we are being blessed by His grace. So, absolutely, the
ministries of the Holy Spirit can involve our feelings and emotions. At the same
time, we are not to base the assurance of our possession of the Holy Spirit on
how we feel.
Syria’s rival hegemons
By CAROLINE B. GLICK /Jerusalem Post
07/08/2011 16:22
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=228411
While it is true that Turkey and Iran are rival hegemons, it is also true that
they’re allied hegemons
Last Saturday, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah gave Hezbollah-backed Lebanese
Prime Minister Najib Mikati the political equivalent of a public thrashing. Last
Thursday, Mikati gave a speech in which he tried to project an image of a leader
of a government that has not abandoned the Western world completely. Mikati gave
the impression that his Hezbollah-controlled government is not averse to
cooperating with the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon. The Special Tribunal just
indicted four Hezbollah operatives for their role in the 2005 assassination of
former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri.
But on Saturday night, Nasrallah gave a speech in which he made clear that he
has no intention whatsoever of cooperating with the Special Tribunal and that
since he runs the show in Lebanon, Lebanon will not cooperate in any way with
the UN judicial body. As an editorial at the NOW Lebanon website run by the
anti- Hezbollah March 14 movement wrote, last Saturday night Nasrallah
“demolished Mikati’s authority and the office from whence it comes, and used it
as a rag to mop up what is left of Lebanese dignity.”
The March 14 movement has tried to make the Special Tribunal the litmus test for
Mikati’s legitimacy, demanding that his government either cooperate with the UN
Special Tribunal, or resign. But the fact is that the March 14 movement is no
match for Hezbollah. Its protests are not capable of dislodging the
Iranian-controlled jihadist movement from power.
Just as it always has, the fate of Lebanon today lies in the hands of outside
powers. Hezbollah rules the roost in Lebanon because it is backed by Syria and
Iran. Unlike the US and France, Iran and Syria are willing to fight for their
proxy’s control over Lebanon. And so their proxy controls Lebanon. It follows
then that assuming the US and France will continue to betray their allies in the
March 14 democracy movement, Hezbollah will be removed from power in Lebanon
only if its outside sponsors are unseated.
And it is this prospect, more than the UN Special Tribunal, that is keeping
Nasrallah up at nights.
Last month, France’s Le Figaro reported that Hezbollah has moved hundreds of
long-range Iranian-built Zilzal and Fajr 3 and Fajr 4 missiles from its missile
depots in Syria to Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. The missile transfer was due to
Hezbollah’s fear that Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime is on the verge of
being toppled.
And there is good reason for Hezbollah’s concern. The breadth and depth of the
anti-regime protests in Syria far overshadow the anti-regime protests in Egypt
and Tunisia. As Victor Kotsev noted this week in the Asia Times, something like
half a million people participated in the anti-regime demonstrations in Hama
last Friday. Since, according to Syria’s 2009 census, Hama has just over 700,000
residents, the rate of public participation in the anti-regime protests dwarfs
anything seen in any other Arab state since the anti-regime protests began last
December.
According to Tariq Alhomayed, the editor in chief of Asharq Al-Awsat in English,
Assad fired his provincial governor of Hama following last Friday’s
demonstration for not shooting the demonstrators.
Assad’s move is yet another clear sign that he has no intention of compromising
with his opponents. He will sooner destroy his country then let anyone else rule
it.
And this makes sense. A son of the Alawite sect that makes up just 12 percent of
Syria’s population, Assad has no serious support base in Syrian society outside
his family-controlled military. He has repressed every group in his society
including much of his own Alawite sect. As Syria expert Gary Gambill noted in
Foreign Policy on Thursday, Assad has no post-regime prospects.
And so he can entertain no notion of compromise with his people.
Like Hezbollah, Assad’s ability to survive is also going to be determined
elsewhere. To date, the US has backed Assad against the Syrian people and Europe
has gone along.
For their part, the Iranians and their Hezbollah proxies are actively working to
ensure their favored outcome in Syria. In testimony before the Knesset’s Foreign
Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday, IDF Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Aviv
Kochavi repeated his claim that Iran and Hezbollah are actively assisting
Assad’s forces in killing and repressing the Syrian people.
Kochavi explained, “The great motivation Iran and Hezbollah have to assist
[Assad] comes from their deep worry regarding the implications these events
might have, particularly losing control of their cooperation with the Syrians
and having such events slide onto their own territories.”
From Iran’s perspective, the prospect of a renewal of the Green Movement
anti-regime protests is the gravest threat facing the regime today as it reaches
the nuclear threshold. As Iran expert Michael Ledeen wrote this week at Pajamas
Media, the Iranian regime itself is plagued by internal fissures due to
escalating estrangement and rivalry between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and
supreme dictator Ali Khamenei.
Their infighting can be compared to pirates arguing over the division of their
stolen loot as their ship sinks to the bottom of the ocean. Iran’s economy is
failing. Its inflation rate is around 50%. Its people hate the regime. Lacking
the ability to win the public over through politics, since the Green Movement
protests in 2009 the regime has simply terrorized the Iranian people into
submission.
Their fear of their people has only grown since the anti-regime protests in the
Arab world began last December. And in line with this heightened fear, the
regime has tripled its rate of public executions since the start of the year.
The Iranian regime understands that if Syria falls, it is liable to lose its
ability keep its people down. The Alawite-dominated Syrian military is far more
loyal to the Assad regime than the Iranian army is to the Iranian regime. And
there have already been defections from the Syrian army among the junior officer
corps.
Fearing insubordination in the ranks of its military and Revolutionary Guards,
in 2009 the regime reportedly brought Hezbollah operatives to Iran to kill
anti-regime demonstrators.
If Assad falls, Hezbollah will lose its logistical supply line from Iran.
Moreover, Hezbollah will be so busy fending off challenges from
no-longer-daunted Lebanese Sunnis empowered by their Syrian brethren, that its
operatives will be less available to kill Iranian protesters.
With the US compliant with Assad and maintaining its policy of appeasing the
Iranian regime, the only outside government currently making an attempt to
influence events in Syria is Turkey. Although it is being careful to couch its
anti-Assad policy in the rhetoric of compromise, given Assad’s inability to make
any deal with his opponents, simply by calling for him to compromise, the
Turkish government is making it clear that it seeks Assad’s overthrow. Turkey’s
talk of sending troops into Syria to protect civilians and its willingness to
set up refugee camps for the Syrians from border towns fleeing the Assad
regime’s goons, make clear that Ankara is vying to expand its sphere of
influence to Damascus in a post-Assad Syria.
Ankara's plans are all the more apparent when seen in the context of Turkish
Prime Minister Recip Erdogan’s moves to reinstate Turkey as a regional hegemon
along the lines of the Ottoman Empire. To this end, according to a report this
week in The Hindu, since Erdogan’s Islamist AK Party formed its first government
in 2003, it has been actively cultivating ties with Muslim Brotherhood movements
throughout the region. The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood has deep ties to the
Turkish government and the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood branch Hamas has been
publicly supported by Erdogan’s government since 2006.
In the event that Turkey plays a significant role in a post-Assad Syria, it can
be expected that the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood would fairly rapidly take control
of the country.
Many commentators have argued that Turkey’s anti-Assad stance indicates that the
recent warming of ties between Tehran and Ankara, (which among other things saw
Erdogan siding with Iran against the US at the UN Security Council), is over.
But things in the Middle East are never cut and dried. While it is true that
Turkey and Iran are rival hegemons, it is also true that they’re also allied
hegemons. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Syria and Gaza have close ties to
Hezbollah and Iran as well as to Turkey. Al-Qaida in Lebanon has close ties to
Syria and working relationships with Hezbollah.
Then again, if Assad is overthrown, and his overthrow reinvigorates the Iranian
Green revolution, given the pro-Western orientation of much of Iranian society,
it is likely that at a minimum, Iran would drastically scale back its
sponsorship of Hezbollah and other terror groups.
For Israel, Assad’s overthrow will be clear strategic gain in the short-and
medium-term, even if a post-Assad Syrian government exchanges Syria’s Iranian
overlords with Turkish overlords. Syria’s main threats to Israel stem from
Assad’s support for Palestinian terrorists and Hezbollah, and from his ballistic
missile and nuclear programs. While Turkey would perhaps maintain support for
Palestinian terrorists and perhaps for Lebanese terrorists, it does not share
Syria’s attraction to missiles and nuclear weapons as Iran does. Moreover,
Ankara would not have a strong commitment to Hezbollah and so the major threat
to Israel in Lebanon would be severely weakened.
Moreover, if Assad’s potential overthrow leads to increased revolutionary
activities in Iran, the regime will have less time to devote to its nuclear
program, and its nuclear installations will become more vulnerable to
penetration and sabotage. A successor regime in Iran, seeking close ties with
the West and be willing to pay for those ties by setting aside Iran’s nuclear
program.
In the long-term, the reestablishment of a Turkish sphere of influence in the
Arab world in Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority and Egypt through the
Muslim Brotherhood will be extremely dangerous for Israel. With its jihadist
ideology, its powerful conventional military forces, its strong economy and its
strategic ties to the US and Europe, Turkey’s rise as a regional hegemon would
present Israel with a difficult challenge.
Despite the massive dimensions of the anti-regime protests, it is still
impossible to know how the situation in Syria will pan out. This uncertainty is
heightened by the US’s passivity in the face of the uprising against its worst
foe in the Arab world.
Given the strategic opportunities and dangers the situation in Syria presents to
it, Israel cannot be a bystander in the drama unfolding to its north. True,
Israel does not have the power the US has to dictate the outcome. But to the
extent it is able to influence events, Israel should actively assist the
non-Islamist regime opponents in Syria. This includes first and foremost the
Syrian Kurds, but also the non-Islamist Sunni business class, the Druse and the
Christians who are all participating the anti-regime protests. Israel should
also oppose Turkish military intervention in Syria and openly advocate the
establishment of a democratic, federal government in Syria to replace Assad’s
dictatorship.
It might not work. But if it does, the payoff will be extraordinary.
caroline@carolineglick.com