LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِJuly 10/2011

Bible Quotation for today
Matthew 18:6: "But if anyone causes one of these little ones who believe in me to sin, it would be better for him to have a large millstone hung around his neck and to be drowned in the depths of the sea".

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Syrians under the protection of the ambassadors/By Tariq Alhomayed/
July 09/11
Examining Hezbollah’s Activities in the Americas/By Carlton Purvis/
July 09/11
The Hezbollah Apocalyps/By: Nicholas Noe/July 09/11
Syria’s rival hegemons/By: Caroline B.Click/July 09/11
The game in Syria/Editorial By The Daily Star/July 09/11

 Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for July 09/11
Body of Lebanese Man Killed in DRC Plane Crash Found/Naharnet
Report: Hizbullah Anti-Terrorism Act to be Approved in Fall/Naharnet
US, French envoys signal Assad: If army storms Hama, Turkish troops march in/DEBKAfile
Iran says its missiles have reached Indian Ocean for first time/Haaretz
New U.S. defense chief: Defeat of al-Qaida 'within reach'/Haaretz
South Sudan Becomes World’s Newest Nation/Naharnet
Sudan Recognizes Republic of South Sudan/Naharnet
Egypt Appoints New Information Minister/Naharnet
Human Rights Watch: Syria troops describe shooting protesters/Haaretz
Canada Welcomes Independence of South Sudan/Canadian Government
13 Dead, 40 Hurt in Syria: Half a Million Flood Hama amid Demos in Central Damascus/Naharnet
STL Spokesman Reiterates Bellemare Won’t Debate Probe in Media/Naharnet
US sends message to Syria, Congress with diplomacy/AP
U.S. emboldens Hama protesters/Daily Star
Lebanon sees no big Syrian cash flow -senior banker/Reuters
Maronite patriarch treks through northern towns and villages/Daily Star
France 'concerned' by Lebanon's stance on tribunal/The Daily Star
Mikati extends his hand to March 14 coalition/Daily Star
Miqati from Serail: I Urge Cooperation between Opposition, Pro-Cabinet Forces to Achieve Nation’s Interest/Naharnet
Interior Minister Marwan Charbel says indictment procedures making progress/Daily Star
Asarta Visits Newly Deployed Irish UNIFIL Battalion/Naharnet
Hariri to make TV appearance Tuesday: report/The Daily Star
Lebanon's Arabic press digest - July 9, 2011/The Daily Star
Lebanon: Judge orders arrest of woman over Justice Palace bomb hoax/Now Lebanon
Mikati has no power to decide on STL, says MP Samir al-Jisr/Now Lebanon
Lebanese
Cabinet to Start Dealing with 1,500 Issues Starting Thursday/Naharnet
Miqati Travels to Italy, Says March 14 Wants to Paralyze him to Regain Power/Naharnet
Minister
Faisal Karami Slams STL, Says Bellemare Employee of Lebanon/Naharnet
Estonian Ministry Sends Videos of 7 Kidnapped Men to their Relatives/Naharnet


US, French envoys signal Assad: If army storms Hama, Turkish troops march in
DEBKAfile Special Report July 9, 2011,
The visits the American and French ambassadors, Robert Ford and Eric Chevalier, paid to Hama Friday, July 8, in the thick of the half-million turnout in Orontes Square, were more than just a provocative gesture of solidarity with the forces rallying to oust Bashar Assad; they provided a rare glimpse of the joint effort underway between Barack Obama, Nicolas Sarkozy and Tayyip Erdogan to solve an Arab Revolt conflict by compromise.
Ambassador Ford visited Hama twice – the first time Thursday. He made a point of showing Washington's
outrage at the Assad regime's barbaric use of tank artillery, snipers and abuse to suppress the nearly four-month uprising by a visit to Hourani Hospital. There he watched the casualties of Syrian military fire being brought in, including 26 fatalities.
Those visits sparked a sharp exchange: The Syrian Interior Ministry accused the US ambassador of meeting "saboteurs and inciting them to violence, protest and rejection of dialogue," which the authorities say will begin on Sunday, July 10.
debkafile sources report that Assad has selected 244 Syrian figures for inviting to the talks. None represent the protesters or any part of the real opposition to his rule.
Damascus condemned the envoy's visits to Hama as "proof that Washington was playing a role in 15 weeks of unrest." The US State Department rejected the Syrian charge, saying the American envoy was welcomed with flowers and olive branches by peaceful civilians seeking change. They also chanted "No to dialogue!" and "Down with the regime!"
In Washington, Syrian ambassador Imad Mustapha was summoned to the State Department and warned to stop his staff spying on Syrian residents rallying against the Syrian ruler and threatening to harm their families back home.
Notwithstanding these harsh exchanges, debkafile's Middle East sources report that the Ambassadors' Hama visits were part of a complicated, high-stakes diplomatic maneuver undertaken by the US, French and Turkish leaders to forge a compromise between Assad and opposition leaders that would leave the president in place provided he accepted democratic reforms and agreed to make room for political opponents in government.
Four steps have been taken in this direction:
1. By announcing the start of dialogue with the opposition, Assad feels he is meeting a key condition for staying in power:
2. He has held back from a major military assault on the center of Hamas where demonstrators mass day by day and opted for dialogue rather than repeating the massacre his father ordered in 1982 which left at least 25,000 dead. The army has so far been restricted to forays on the town's outskirts;
3. The two ambassadors could not have visited the flashpoint city unless the military checkpoints at its approaches had been forewarned to let them through and the protesters' leaders tipped off to expect them. This concurrence between the two sides over the diplomats' presence in Hama was treated by them as a hopeful sign for the coming "national dialogue."
4. At the same time, 400 kilometers from Hama, Turkish troops are ranged on the border prepared to march into Syria and carve out a 800-square kilometer buffer zone between the Syrian, Iraqi and Turkish borders and the Mediterranean.
Our sources report this enclave would serve two objects:
One would be to provide asylum under Turkish military protection for Syrian refugees in flight from their homes. Ankara is anxious to keep down the numbers entering Turkey and plans to relocate the 25,000 already housed in tent cities there into the enclave.
The other would be to provide Syrian opposition leaders with a stronghold and a safe place to establish an alternative administration to the Assad regime in Damascus.
The Syrian conflict is now at a standoff: A massacre in Hama at the hands of the Syrian army would trigger a Turkish military incursion into Syria.
At the same, time, debkafile's sources stress, not all the protesters of the largely Muslim town of Hama are in favor of US-French-Turkish tactics. While some greeted Ambassador Ford's car with flowers and olive branches, others made a bonfire of American dollars in Orontes Square.

Canada Welcomes Independence of South Sudan
(No. 196 – July 9, 2011 – 7:35 a.m.) John Baird, Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister, today issued the following statement regarding the independence of South Sudan:
“The Government of Canada welcomes South Sudan into the community of nations as an independent state. After decades of conflict and underdevelopment, this historic occasion represents an important opportunity for the people of South Sudan to build a brighter, better future for themselves. We encourage the leaders of South Sudan to do all they can to deliver on this promise.
“I will write to my South Sudanese counterpart, as soon as he or she is named, for the purpose of establishing diplomatic relations with the Republic of South Sudan.
“Canada hopes that Sudan and South Sudan will use dialogue to resolve any outstanding issues between them and work toward becoming two viable states that are at peace internally and with each other.
“Canada will continue to focus on stability in the Sudans. Since 2006, the Government of Canada has contributed more than $885 million toward humanitarian assistance, development and peacebuilding in the region.”
Deepak Obhrai, Parliamentary Secretary to Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister, represented Canada and Prime Minister Stephen Harper at the independence ceremony in Juba, South Sudan.


Judge orders arrest of woman over Justice Palace bomb hoax
July 9, 2011 /Attorney General Judge Said Mirza ordered the arrest of a woman identified as M.Sh.Sh. for calling in a hoax bomb threat at the Baabda Justice Palace. “The woman, along with her brother who is currently in Canada, made the warning calls on June 24 and July 8 and demanded the Justice Palace [be evacuated] in order to postpone the hearing of a man arrested for drug charges,” the National News Agency reported. The report also said that Mirza ordered the arrest after a series of investigations – which revealed the identity of the woman – were launched in collaboration with the Telecommunications Ministry. The Baabda Justice Palace was evacuated several times after bomb threats were called more than once over the past month. -NOW Lebanon

Report: Hizbullah Anti-Terrorism Act to be Approved in Fall

Naharnet /The Hizbullah Anti-Terrorism Act is still under discussion by the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs and is likely to be adopted in the fall, congressional sources told As Safir daily Saturday. U.S. Congressman Howard Berman has introduced the HATA that sets rigorous requirements for the provision of foreign assistance to Lebanon during periods when Hizbullah is part of the majority governing coalition. The cosponsors of HATA include three Congressmen of Lebanese origin -Darrell Issa, Charles Boustany, and Nick Rahall.
Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is seeking to introduce stronger wordings in the Act but without making major amendments to it, the congressional sources told As Safir. However, the legislation is likely to be approved after the summer vacation of Congress that lasts from August 8 till September 5, they said.
The report came amid growing concern in the U.S. over Hizbullah’s influence in Latin America and its implications on U.S. Homeland security.
The Committee on Homeland Security’s Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence held a hearing on the issue on Thursday.
Roger Noriega from the American Enterprise Institute said in his remarks that Hizbullah acts as a proxy for Iran, specifically, of the Qods Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. “These determined and deadly enemies of the United States have made substantial progress in the last six years to expand their influence and operations in Latin America.”
“Hizbullah operatives have provided weapons and explosives training to drug trafficking organizations that operate along the U.S. border with Mexico and have sought to radicalize Muslim populations in several Mexican cities,” he said. Noriega expected to see the Shiite party presence in Latin America become more active and deadly in the coming years.
Researcher at The International Assessment and Strategy Center Douglas Farah said that in addition to its growing presence in Latin America, Hizbullah has a smuggling network in West Africa to move contraband diamonds and other commodities. It is now involved in the trafficking of cocaine from Latin America to Europe, he said.
Melani Cammett, who is Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of Middle East Studies Program at Brown University, said during the hearing that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon “continues to destabilize Lebanese politics, with Hizbullah declaring its firm opposition to the proceedings and attempting to undermine the investigation’s credibility, particularly after prosecutors announced the indictments of four Hizbullah members.” She said, however, that there is no evidence that the Shiite party aims to launch global operations, as carried out by Sunni extremist groups such as al-Qaida. “To the contrary, the organization has explicitly and repeatedly condemned the indiscriminate, large-scale acts of violence perpetrated by Sunni extremists,”.

Mikati has no power to decide on STL, says MP Samir al-Jisr
July 9, 2011 /Future bloc MP Samir al-Jisr said on Saturday that Prime Minister Najib Mikati does not have the authority to take any decision regarding the UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), which is probing former PM Rafik Hariri’s 2005 assassination. “Mikati does not want to confront the international community, but he does not have [the power] to make any decisions,” Jisr told the Voice of Lebanon (100.5) radio station, in a reference to Hezbollah’s alleged control of the government.
The MP voiced hope that President Michel Sleiman “would be able to play the role of an arbiter” in the issue of the tribunal, which is considered by Hezbollah to be a “US-Israeli tool that intends to implicate” the Shia group in Rafik Hariri’s murder. “We will not [make concessions] regarding the STL,” Jisr added.
The Lebanese government won the parliament’s vote of confidence on Thursday, as Mikati vowed that his cabinet would cooperate with the STL, that charged four Hezbollah members in Rafik Hariri’s murder. However, Hezbollah ruled out the arrests of his party members, while March 14 parties have called on Mikati to either commit to the tribunal or step down.
-NOW Lebanon

Syrians under the protection of the ambassadors
09/07/2011
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
It is not easy to believe that the American and French ambassadors to Damascus travelled to Hama to monitor what is happening there with regards to the popular uprising, not to mention the heavy security cordon being imposed around the city by the Syrian army, much less that they did this without the knowledge of the Syrian authorities.
The Syrian regime has been building up the presence of its forces around the city of Hama over the past week, in preparation for the demonstrations that took place yesterday on Friday, and in order to ensure that the events of last week's "Friday of Departure" were not repeated. The entire world closely monitored this situation, warning that if the Syrian troops entered the city in the manner expected of them, this would undoubtedly result in a humanitarian disaster…therefore the international community, including the western ambassadors to Syria, took action to prevent this from happening.
From here, observers can only express wonder at the Syrian escalation against the American and French ambassadors, particularly the statement issued by the Syrian Interior Ministry which stated that "the US ambassador met with saboteurs in Hama…and he incited these saboteurs to violence, to demonstrate, and to refuse dialogue." The statement added that "the [Syrian Interior] ministry wondered at the US ambassador's arrival in Hama contrary to the diplomatic norms and despite the roadblocks set up by the saboteurs to prevent citizens from reaching their jobs."
If the Syrian Interior Ministry was truly surprised by the US ambassador's arrival in Hama despite the presence of roadblocks – according to the statement – then those monitoring the situation can only wonder how the American and French ambassadors were able to leave Damascus and reach Hama without the Syrian Interior Ministry being aware of this. Syria is a police state in every sense of the word, so how could the Syrian security apparatus not be aware that the two ambassadors were travelling to Hama? Does this mean that the al-Assad regime's grip on Syria has finally begun to slacken? This is not all, for when the Syrian regime says that the American ambassador is inciting violence, merely by visiting Hama, then the question that immediately comes to mind is: why did the Syrian regime taken foreign ambassadors – including the US ambassador – on an official visit of the Jisr al-Shughour area a few weeks ago when the American ambassador's presence represents "incitement"?
However the unfortunate issue, which the Syrian regime – and its supporters – have failed to see, is that the people of Hama today are safe and secure because of the presence of the American and French ambassadors, rather than due to any wisdom on the part of the Syrian regime. This is does not represent a blemish in the record of the two ambassadors, but rather in the record of the Syrian regime that has failed to understand the extent to which it has been implicated in the eyes of the Syrian citizens. The regime fired the Governor of Hama last week because he guaranteed the people of the city their safety, whilst today the regime itself is accusing the people of Hama of treason because two western ambassadors have joined them. The Damascus regime does not want anybody to see that the people of Syria are safer under the protection of foreign ambassadors rather than in the presence of the Syrian security apparatus.
Of course, there are a lot of implication to this, internally and externally. For the message has reached the people of Syria – of all backgrounds – that were it not for the presence of foreign ambassadors in Syria than the security apparatus would have killed the citizens [of Hama], and this simply means that the legitimacy of the Syrian regime is being eroded in a dramatic fashion.


EU, France 'concerned' by Lebanon's stance on tribunal
09.07.11/Daily Star/PARIS: France said Friday it was "concerned" by the Lebanese government's attitude toward the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon into the murder of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. A Foreign Ministry spokesman said France had noted Prime Minister Najib Mikati's promise that his Hezbollah-dominated Cabinet would continue to cooperate with the court.  "We are nevertheless concerned by the formulation used to refer to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which appears to cast doubt over the impartiality and the professionalism" of the court, spokesman Bernard Valero said. In a statement released late Thursday EU High Representative Catherine Ashton said Thursday's vote of confidence was a "welcome development," but added that she was "concerned by the absence of an explicit commitment to cooperate" with the STL. The clause regarding the Special Tribunal for Lebanon in the new Cabinet’s policy statement, which received a narrow vote of confidence in Parliament Thursday, states that the government “respects international resolutions” and “will follow the progress of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon,” and has been criticized by the opposition for lacking a clear commitment to the court. – With The Daily Star

Interior Minister Marwan Charbel says indictment procedures making progress
July 09, 2011 /By Antoine Ghattas Saab/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Interior Minister Marwan Charbel said Friday that the judicial authorities entrusted to serve arrest warrants to the four Hezbollah members indicted by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon had achieved progress in their mission. “As for the arrest warrants, General Prosecutor Saeed Mirza has tasked judicial authorities to launch their investigations directly to identify the locations of the indicted [in order to serve them the arrest warrants],” Charbel told The Daily Star in an interview.
“They [judicial authorities] are informing him about any new developments, hour by hour. Based on information I received … progress had been made on this level,” Charbel said.
The STL, established by the U.N. to prosecute those responsible for the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and others, released its indictment in late June, which included arrest warrants for four Hezbollah members. For the past year, Hezbollah has dismissed the STL as an “Israeli project,” while denying involvement.
After the release of the indictment, the party’s leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah said no one would be able to arrest the four individuals, even in“300 years.”
Charbel said that the protocol of cooperation inked between the STL and Lebanon, in line with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, had tasked General Prosecutor Saeed Mirza with following up on the matter.
“In line with applicable laws, he chooses the suitable side to execute the indictment … I do not know the content of the indictment so far. Not even the president, the prime minister or any official knows its content,” Charbel said. Separately, Charbel praised the director general of the Internal Security Forces, Major General Ashraf Rifi, and rejected the idea of sacking him. There has been speculation that the March 8-dominated Cabinet of Prime Minister Najib Mikati would engage in acts of political “vengeance” against state employees who are seen as allies of the March 14 coalition. “I consider Major General Rifi … to be a disciplined officer and the most important thing is that he did not violate the law,” Charbel said. “For me, acts of vengeance are unacceptable. I do not work in politics, but deal with soldiers.”
Asked whether he had any solution for the security incidents that take place in the country, Charbel said the ISF would act firmly to keep the peace.
“More than this, we promise that [similar] incidents will not happen again. We will accompany demonstrations, whether licensed or unlicensed, to prevent the outbreak of any security incident,” Charbel said. Eight people were killed last month in the northern city of Tripoli in armed clashes between gunmen from the predominantly Sunni neighborhood of Bab al-Tabbaneh and the mainly Alawite district of Jabal Mohsen, shortly after supporters of anti-regime protests in Syria marched to Bab al-Tabbaneh.
“Security bodies are taking action in all directions to thwart any attempt by certain sides to tamper with security and stability,” the minister said.
Charbel, whose appointment came as a result of agreement between President Michel Sleiman and Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, said he would only refer to the Interior Ministry when encountering a “thorny issue.” “I came to implement law and create a fundamental nucleus for the state and I have nothing to do with anything else,” Charbel said.
Asked about his evaluation of the three-day discussions of Mikati’s Cabinet policy statement at Parliament, which saw heated debates, Charbel said they exhibited “a breath of democracy.”
“But it was a tough democracy, which saw escalatory positions and foul language, which harms the image of Parliament,” Charbel noted. Asked what he would promise the Lebanese, he said, “we promise them to establish a network of security and to preserve their civil peace, along with ensuring every person his rights.”

Hariri to make TV appearance Tuesday: report July 09, 2011
The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Former prime minister and opposition leader Saad Hariri will make an appearance Tuesday evening on MTV to discuss the latest developments in Lebanon, reported Mustaqbal newspaper Saturday. Hariri, whose Cabinet collapsed in January following a dispute with the Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, has been abroad for at least the past month because of fears of an assassination attempt, Future Movement MP Jamal Jarrah told the media last month.
The STL was established in 2007 to try those involved in the assassination of Hariri’s father, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was killed on Feb. 14, 2005, when a massive car bomb detonated his motorcade as he drove past the Saint George hotel in Ain el-Mreisseh, near Downtown Beirut.
Members of Hezbollah have been indicted by the U.N. court. On June 30, a delegation from the STL handed Lebanon’s state prosecutor indictments and arrest warrants against four members of the Lebanese group. Lebanon has 30 days to carry out the arrest warrants.
Hezbollah has denied involvement in the assassination of statesman Rafik Hariri and has accused the STL of being a “American-Israeli project” aimed at targeting the resistance group and sowing civil strife in Lebanon. Sayyed Hasan Nassrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, described the indictments by the as unjust and said the four members would not be apprehended, but tried in absentia instead. The Cabinet of Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who was nominated by the March 8 coalition to succeed Saad Hariri, won a parliamentary vote of confidence Thursday following three days of heated debates of its policy statement during which March 14 lawmakers lambasted the prime minister, accusing him of renouncing the STL and putting the country on a collision course with the international community. Hariri did not attend the parliamentary sessions.

The game in Syria
July 09, 2011 /Editorial By The Daily Star
A game is afoot in Syria, but it’s one that is not as clear-cut as people might think.
The United States, European countries and the Arabs are all involved, but the most striking development arose this week, when the French and American ambassadors to Syria journeyed to the city of Hama to show solidarity with a popular uprising there. It would be naïve to think that the ambassadors would have made the trek without securing some type of official Syrian government approval beforehand. European countries and the U.S. have made repeated statements of disapproval and condemnation about the Syrian government’s harsh crackdown on protesters, but for now, there has been a considerable amount of smoke but no fire.
Washington has urged Syrian President Bashar Assad to undertake political reforms, but Assad has been able to claim that he is also a champion of such a reform movement. Judging by the actions of Europe and the U.S. thus far, the Syrian regime is safe. The problem lies in the outside world’s double standards on the bloodshed that has been rampant in the Arab world over the past six months. The international community has not, is not, and will not act on the basis of lofty moral principles, but rather on the basis of naked political interests.
People in this part of the world are often deceived by the rhetoric of foreign officials, believing that dramatic new developments might be under way, when in fact the real message is one of “business as usual.” The U.S. supports a host of regimes throughout the world with records on human rights that would, in another context, would set off alarm bells.
Arab peoples, and their governments, should become too concerned when they hear that they have the support of the outside world, or the non-support of the outside world.
The situation in Libya, for example, should not be taken as a measure of anything significant when it comes to a country like Syria. The departure of Libyan leader Moammar Qadhafi will not leave a dramatic regional political vacuum, while the departure of Assad and his government will have significant repercussions in neighboring countries, whether it’s Iraq, or Lebanon, or elsewhere. So far, Washington is offering tacit support for Assad, despite the news flashes that one might hear from time to time. The U.S. is not in a position to take the risky move of choosing sides, and is aware that Assad’s government, in its own way, offers the kind of “security” that Washington and other foreign capitals are anxious to see.
The most important lesson from this week is that the Arab peoples who are engaging in courageous public protests should focus on the internal requirements of their actions. They should not wage on the outside world to help them, because history has shown that only interests, and nothing else, guide such policies.

Maronite patriarch treks through northern towns and villages

 July 09, 2011/By Antoine Amrieh The Daily Star
BSHARRI, Lebanon: On the way to his summer residence in Diman, Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai trekked through a series of towns and villages in the country’s north Friday, where hundreds of residents welcomed him for the first time since his election as head of the Maronite Church in March.
Rai’s convoy arrived in the Batroun town of Shekka and was greeted by town officials and hundreds of enthusiastic local residents.
From the early hours of the day, the town was decorated with billboards, giant posters of Rai and papal flags to welcome the patriarch.
Bishop George Abu Jaoude, who presides over the Maronite archdiocese of Tripoli, and Shekka’s mayor, Farjallah Kfoury, welcomed Rai from the crowd of well-wishers, who had come from the surrounding towns of Kfarhatta, Kalbaata, Ijd Abrin, Kefraya, Zakroun and Enfeh. “It’s an honor to welcome you [Rai] at this gathering before your trip to Diman this summer,” Bishop Abu Jaoude said. Speaking at the Our Lady of Deliverance Church of Shekka, Abu Jaoude said that Rai’s visit was unique because it was the first to the archdiocese of Tripoli.
Rai also visited the district of Koura Friday and was greeted at the entrance of the Municipality of Amioun. Amioun Mayor Jerji Barakat and members of the municipality welcomed Rai as hundreds of Amioun residents flocked to the area to greet the Maronite patriarch. From Amioun, Rai’s convoy drove to the town of Dar Baashtar, where many of the faithful followed him toward the Church of St. George. Later in the evening, Rai arrived at his summer residence in Diman, in the Cedars above Bsharri. Former Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir, Bishop Francis Bassiry, Bsharri MP Elie Keyrouz and Bsharri Mayor Elie Makhlouf were on hand to welcome him. The northern village of Diman is the Maronite Patriarchate’s summer headquarters and historically most patriarchs have taken up residence there from July to September. Speaking to the crowd as Rai reached the Patriarchate’s courtyard of Diman, Bsharri’s mayor said that the Union of Municipalities of Bsharri supported Rai and his vision in reviving spirituality in the area. “We place all our capabilities in the service of your initiatives in leading the Maronite Church toward a new renaissance,” said Makhlouf. Rai gave his blessings to the crowd and officials who greeted him at Diman and thanked everyone for the affection they have for the Bsharri region.

Examining Hezbollah’s Activities in the Americas

By Carlton Purvis/Security Management
http://www.securitymanagement.com/news/examining-hezbollah%E2%80%99s-activities-americas-008732
It’s known that Hezbollah has established itself in the tri-border area (TBA) of South America where Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay meet. It uses the area to conduct fundraising activities to funnel money back to the Middle East. But over the last six years, experts say, Hezbollah has made substantial progress in widening its operations throughout Latin America. Experts agree that Hezbollah is digging-in in the Americas, but what they don’t agree on is whether the organization still poses as much of a threat to the United States as it did in the 1980s.
Support from South American countries like Bolivia and Venezuela has allowed Hezbollah to operate freely in South America. The group’s ties to the Iranian government, paired with Iran’s interest in relationships with South American countries, could be a recipe for disaster, some experts say.
Thursday at a House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence hearing, experts discussed the scope of Hezbollah’s operations in Latin America and concerns that the group is positioning itself strategically in and around the United States with the help of Iran.
Iran’s pursuit of diplomacy in South America stems from its desire to put an end to its former international isolation for the sake of furthering its nuclear program and getting access to raw uranium in Venezuela, Ilan Berman, and vice president of the American Foreign Policy said. Furthermore, Iran hopes to build a coalition in the Americas to lessen the United Sates’ power, he said. And what better way to loosen a tight grip than to throw in some gremlins.
More than 80 Hezbollah operatives actively operate in 12 countries in the region, Ambassador Roger F. Noriega testified. Noriega said past intelligence suggests that Hezbollah uses Latin America to both recruit and train operatives. In the United States, Hezbollah has active cells in 15 cities from Los Angeles to New York and “has operational capability to strike a target if it chooses to do so,”Berman testified. Berman said law enforcement is making the mistake of addressing Hezbollah as part of the war on drugs rather than acknowledging that the materials and money gained in Latin America fund a State Department-designated group of terrorists. Hezbollah is also active in at least four major cities in Canada, he said.
And although Hezbollah is strapped for cash, Douglas Farah, senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center said “they seem to be spending a lot of resources to stay and operate in this area.”
There is little to indicate the group has plans to attack the United States, Melani Cammett of Brown University testified. Cammett, the only witness to have ever directly spoken with members of Hezbollah, said that, based on her interviews with Hezbollah officials for a book she’s writing on its social programs, she doesn’t believe Hezbollah is interested in targeting the United States militarily. Cammet noted that Hezbollah’s acts of violence are almost exclusively toward Israel, and it hasn’t called for, or planned, any attacks in the United States since the 1980s.But if Hezbollah isn't targeting the Unites States, then what are they doing here, Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY) wanted to know. “To suggest that Hezbollah does not pose a direct threat to the Unites States is inconsistent in a very compelling way with the facts that are presented here. You don’t infiltrate an area if you don’t have an intent, and the intent is not benevolent…. It’s pretty clear to me what their intent is whether it’s immediate or long term,” he said.
Cammett says the group’s focus in the Americas is on fundraising and sending money back to strengthen their power in the Middle East – Lebanon in particular. Many South American supporters of Hezbollah aren’t any more active than providing occasional donations. Other experts on the panel agreed that at the moment Hezbollah didn’t present an immediate threat, but they said that it could in the future.
Witnesses suggested Hezbollah was positioning in the Americas as a defense in case United States attacked Iran. But when asked by Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) how many terrorists have been apprehended that had come through the U.S. States/Mexico border, the panel had no answers. Farah said close diplomatic ties with South American countries would allow greater freedom for Hezbollah members to travel using diplomatic passports so they wouldn’t need to sneak across the border. Ceullar also noted that the Department of Homeland Security has no evidence of the existence of Hezbollah training camps south of the border.
The subcommittee concluded by calling for increased action to prevent Latin American from becoming a safe haven for Hezbollah and other terrorists. “Today’s hearing was a significant step toward enhancing awareness about Hezbollah’s activities in Latin America and understanding this very important threat to America here at home,” chairman Rep. Patrick Meehan (R-Pa.) said.

US sends message to Syria, Congress with diplomacy

By BRADLEY KLAPPER, Associated Press – WASHINGTON (AP) — The Obama administration sent two distinct messages by dispatching the U.S. ambassador to Syria to meet anti-regime protesters in a besieged city. To Syrian President Bashar Assad: Reform now. To critics in the U.S. of its engagement policy: Stop complaining.
Greeted by demonstrators with roses and cheers, the envoy, Robert Ford, on Friday finished a two-day trip to the restive city of Hama aimed at driving home the message that the United States stands with those in the Syrian streets braving a brutal government crackdown.
The visit prompted fierce reaction from the Syrian regime and a renewed American warning that Assad was failing to stabilize his country by satisfying the democratic yearnings of his people.
Ford "had a chance to talk to lots of average citizens — these were shopkeepers, people out on the street, young men," said Victoria Nuland, the State Department spokeswoman. "When he got into the city, the car was immediately surrounded by friendly protesters who were putting flowers on the windshield, they were putting olive branches on the car, they were chanting 'Down with the regime!' It was quite a scene."So far, the U.S. government has refused to call for an end to the Assad family's four-decade dynasty. The government's harsh repression of dissent has escalated the crisis with protesters increasingly calling for Assad's ouster after 11 years full of promises of democratic reform but little change from the iron-fisted rule of his father. The Obama administration has grown increasingly disgusted with the violence in Syria that has claimed the lives of 1,600 people plus 350 members of the security forces. Yet it hasn't mustered sufficient international outrage to secure a U.N. condemnation of Assad's government or a unified global demand that he step down.
The administration cannot press too hard by itself because the threat of military action would not be taken seriously while it is trying to wind down wars in neighboring Iraq and in Afghanistan, and struggling to justify its participation in an international coalition against Moammar Gadhafi in Libya.
The solution has been to balance stinging criticism of the Assad regime's conduct with continued pleas for it to lead a democratic transition. But the measured approach has faced a clamoring at home and in Syria for tougher action.
There has been no U.S. ambassador in Syria for the five previous years in protest of alleged Syrian involvement in the assassination of a Lebanese politician who had criticized Syrian domination of his country. Republican members of Congress have challenged Ford's continued presence in the country, calling it an unwarranted reward to Assad's often pro-Iran and anti-U.S. government stance, and untenable in light of recent violence against civilians.
Ford's participation in a Syrian government-organized trip to the country's north last month didn't help. The State Department said at the time that Ford's outing to the abandoned town of Jisr al-Shughour allowed him to "see for himself the results of the Syrian government's brutality." However, he mostly encountered deserted streets and buildings that wouldn't prove the existence of a foreign conspiracy to destabilize Syria, as the government claims, or mass atrocities, as Western governments and human rights groups allege.
Ford has been rebuffed in several attempts to speak directly with senior Syrian officials.
"Any continued presence of a U.S. ambassador will either be used by the regime for propaganda purposes or just plain ignored," Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen said last month. The Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Ford's participation in the government trip "compromised U.S. credibility with freedom and pro-democracy advocates within Syria."
U.S. officials nevertheless insist that Ford is serving a vital role in making American concerns known to the Syrian government and providing assessments to policymakers back in Washington. Beyond that, he is providing moral support to protesters, officials say. Ford's trip allowed him to see firsthand the lies of the Syrian regime, Nuland told reporters. While the government blames foreign instigators or armed gangs for unrest, Ford "witnessed average Syrians asking for change in their country," she said.
In recent days, Hama residents have largely sealed off their city, setting up makeshift checkpoints with burning tires and concrete blocks to keep security forces away.
The government seized on Ford's visit to insist that foreign conspirators lay behind the unrest and called it proof the U.S. was inciting violence in the Arab nation. The U.S. is trying to "aggravate the situations which destabilize Syria," the state-run news agency said Friday. Nuland called the claim "absolute rubbish."
"The reason for his visit was to stand in solidarity with the right of the Syrian people to demonstrate peacefully," she said.
Nuland also disputed the Syrian argument that Ford's trip was unauthorized, explaining that the U.S. embassy informed the government ahead of time.
"They really need to focus their attention on what their citizens have to say, rather than on spending their time picking at Ambassador Ford," Nuland said.
Ford left Hama during Friday prayers ahead of what are usually the week's largest protests. He returned to Damascus safely Friday afternoon.
Copyright © 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

STL indictments cannot foment sectarian strife in Lebanon
By Hossein Ruivaran
Tehran Times/July 9, 2011
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=243796
The recent indictment issued by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) can be analyzed from various perspectives.
The stance adopted by Hezbollah Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah has been expressed in unambiguous language. Hezbollah believes that the decision to name four members of the Islamic resistance group in the STL indictments was a completely politicized action and there is no clear evidence supporting the charges. Hezbollah will not allow these people to be handed over to the STL for the so-called international investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri. Nasrallah openly declared that even if the tribunal lasts for three hundred years, the Hezbollah members will not be handed over.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese government has taken the stance that it will cooperate with the tribunal on the condition that it does not undermine the independence of the country. The question is whether the government’s decision to cooperate with the tribunal is going to infringe on Lebanon’s sovereignty or not.
The answer to this question is very important. But, given the fact that the current government has been formed by a coalition that includes Hezbollah, it seems highly unlikely that the state prosecutor will hand over these four men. From this perspective, the new STL indictment has no special implications for Lebanon’s current situation. In fact, the tribunal will be forced to halt the proceedings if it is not able to summon these people to court.
However, advocates of the new indictments are making efforts to impose sanctions on Lebanon to force the government to cooperate with the Western-backed tribunal. The main issue is whether the call to impose sanctions on the Lebanese government is a serious threat or just a political maneuver.
The STL has accused four Shias of killing a Sunni, so there is a possibility that it is meant to be a signal to begin fomenting sectarian strife between Shias and Sunnis. Therefore, many believe that, backed by certain Western governments, the tribunal is attempting to provoke Shias and Sunnis into engaging in a confrontation.
However, based on Hezbollah’s calculations, this devious plot cannot be realized in Lebanon’s current situation. The revelations made by Nasrallah about what happened behind the scenes have undermined the credibility of the tribunal. Moreover, the conspiracies against Lebanon and the STL’s conduct in recent months show how volatile the tribunal is. The tribunal first blamed Syria, but now others have been accused. It is possible that the tribunal will make more mistakes in the future.
But even if these errors are not corrected, the naive attempt to foment sectarian strife between Shia and Sunni in Lebanon cannot be realized.
**Hossein Ruivaran is a Middle East expert based in Tehran.

Tehran proposes Iran-Lebanon joint committee on abducted diplomats

Tehran Times Political Desk
Tehran Times 09 July/11
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=243799
TEHRAN – A presidential advisor has called for the establishment of a joint Iranian-Lebanese committee to determine the fate of four Iranian nationals who were kidnapped in Lebanon in 1982.  Maryam Mojtahedzadeh made the proposal during a meeting with Lebanese President Michel Suleiman on Wednesday.
Four Iranian nationals, chargé d’affaires Mohsen Mousavi, military attaché of the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ahmad Motevasellian, Taqi Rastegar Moqaddam, a diplomat from the embassy, and Kazem Akhavan, a reporter and photographer from the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), were captured by a Phalangist militia while traveling to southern Lebanon in 1982, then handed over to the Zionist regime and transferred to a prison in occupied Palestine.
Michel Suleiman also said he feels a moral duty to pursue the case of abducted Iranian diplomats and promised to take appropriate measures in this regard.
On Iran-Lebanon ties, Suleiman said that Tehran and Beirut enjoy favorable relations.


The Hezbollah Apocalyps

By: Nicholas Noe | July 8, 2011
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-hezbollah-apocalypse-5581
| July 8, 2011/The National Interest
In the opening weeks of the year 2000, Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Lebanon’s militant Shiite movement Hezbollah, granted a series of lengthy interviews to the Arab media that directly addressed the gravest threat hitherto seen to his party’s continuation as “The Resistance”: a looming peace agreement between Syria and Israel.
Acknowledging that such a deal would necessarily obligate Hezbollah as well as Lebanon (given the tens of thousands of Israeli and Syrian troops occupying different swaths of the country), Nasrallah answered the provocative question of what he would do when the Star of David flag was raised over the Israeli embassy in Beirut by saying that this would, in fact, represent a victory for the “rationale of resistance” which had forced an end to Israeli occupation. Still, he and his constituents would “refuse to normalize” the relationship in the coming years.
No trade, no Israeli tourists visiting South Lebanon, he suggested.
Backs turned.
Crucially though, no rockets and no car bombs.
The end of violent resistance.
The “Syria Track,” of course, collapsed spectacularly in March of 2000, largely as a result of a dispute over a few hundred meters of shoreline around Lake Tiberius which the Syrians and the Israelis refused to concede (although U.S. President Bill Clinton didn’t help matters by lying to the dying president of Syria, Hafez al-Assad, promising him that he had the shoreline in his pocket as a means to cajole Assad into coming to Geneva to sign a deal).
Eleven years on from this intensely regrettable episode, Hezbollah again faces a major existential challenge, but this time the ending, if there is to be one, looks decidedly more violent and open to all possibilities.
Indeed, much to its surprise and chagrin, the party is now besieged.
The Iranian regime, and the supreme guide for Hezbollah, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is involved in a bitter power struggle.
Syria, where Hezbollah finds much of its logistical support—or “strategic depth”—is in crisis.
And it is Hezbollah’s stalwart backing of the Assad regime, which even Hamas has bucked, that is largely eroding its vital claim to reason and genuine public support at home and in the Middle East more broadly (even though most of Hezbollah’s enemies think it relies only on a toxic mixture of fear and brainwashing to sustain its power, officials and cadres have long deemed the party’s ability to appeal to reason as indispensable).
In a similar vein, even though the party has done a good job of discrediting the Special Tribunal for Lebanon that is set to try Hezbollah members (and possibly others) in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri, the indictments for the murder of a leading Sunni in the Middle East, when combined with Hezbollah’s use of arms in May 2008 against its mainly Sunni opponents in the streets of Beirut, has only exacerbated the sectarian divisions and outright hatred which many of its opponents—and Hezbollah itself—rightly view as the most potent offensive weapon it faces in the field.
Across the border in Israel, Nasrallah’s multifaceted strategy and multiple pronouncements vis-à-vis his most bitter enemy are also fast unravelling.
For the last few years, Nasrallah had been able to masterfully appeal to those in the region who yearned for a final settlement as well as those who yearned for a total victory over Zionism.
On the one hand, he exhorted, Hezbollah’s critics and opponents in the Arab world should use the growing—though still asymmetric—military strength of Hezbollah and its Resistance Axis allies in the region (mainly Syria, Iran and Hamas) to force Israel into a two-state, negotiated solution. Though Hezbollah did not want this to come to pass, he admitted, the only way to get Israel to change its bargaining position is to increase your side’s military power in the field.
On the other hand, since the internal contradictions of the Resistance Axis states were lessening, Nasrallah stressed, while Israel’s were growing, time was on the side of those who would prefer to patiently wait and see a one-state solution rise from the internal implosion of Zionism (on account of demography, emigration as a result of growing fear over military encirclement, corruption, international deligitamazation etc.).
Unfortunately for Nasrallah, all of the resistance clocks appear to be ticking down far faster than Israel’s, where the economy is humming along and the United States is funding a massive effort to “Iron-Dome” the country against the threat of the Resistance Axis’s rockets and WMDs.
All of this, understandably, begs the question: What will Hezbollah do in this next stage?
Should Assad’s multiplying list of enemies, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, choose to go in for the kill, either bluntly or obliquely, Hezbollah, it now seems evident after meeting with party officials, is prepared to use all necessary means to fight back, and fight back widely.
A collapse of the Levant leg of the Resistance Axis is simply unacceptable for Hezbollah. And seeing no reasonable options for escaping such an outcome in a "just" manner (a course that was available in March 2000 when the party was ready to lay down its arms), Hezbollah will have little choice but to become a part and parcel of one last climactic conflict.
Since the Assad regime’s threshold for doing the same is probably lower (and far more incendiary with its WMD capability), the actors now consolidating themselves to boil Assad (and secondarily Hezbollah) to the breaking point, including many influential voices in Washington and European capitals, need to very carefully consider the wisdom of the road that they are going down—a road that will, in all probability, bring great destruction to the region, including to Israel whose home front will undoubtedly be a main frontline.
Saying this, however, does not have to mean simply withering away in the face of a threat. Instead, it could mean—it should mean—that outside actors who hold such comparatively great power (Israel alone could probably bomb both Syria and Lebanon back into the Stone Age whereas its opponents cannot), might finally have to find a means and a discourse to grant concessions to far weaker, though to many still detestable, parties—a course that would actually fatally undermine their ability and desire to exercise violence over time, either against their own people or against other nations.

Question: "Is a believer supposed to be able to feel the Holy Spirit?"

GotQuestions.org
Answer: While certain ministries of the Holy Spirit may involve a feeling, such as conviction of sin, comfort, and empowerment, Scripture does not instruct us to base our relationship with the Holy Spirit on how or what we feel. Every born-again believer has the indwelling Holy Spirit. Jesus told us that when the Comforter has come He will be with us and in us. “And I will ask the Father, and he will give you another Counselor to be with you forever—the Spirit of truth. The world cannot accept him, because it neither sees him nor knows him. But you know him, for he lives with you and will be in you” (John 14:16-17). In other words, Jesus is sending one like Himself to be with us and in us.
We know the Holy Spirit is with us because God's Word tells us that it is so. Every born-again believer is indwelt by the Holy Spirit, but not every believer is controlled by the Holy Spirit, and there is a distinct difference. When we step out in our flesh, we are not under the control of the Holy Spirit even though we are still indwelt by Him. The apostle Paul comments on this truth, and he uses an illustration that helps us to understand. “Do not get drunk on wine, which leads to debauchery. Instead, be filled with the Spirit” (Ephesians 5:18). Many people read this verse and interpret it to mean that the apostle Paul is speaking against wine. However, the context of this passage is the walk and the warfare of the Spirit-filled believer. Therefore, there is something more here than just a warning about drinking too much wine.
When people are drunk with too much wine, they exhibit certain characteristics: they become clumsy, their speech is slurred, and their judgment is impaired. The apostle Paul sets up a comparison here. Just as there are certain characteristics that identify someone who is controlled by too much wine, there should also be certain characteristics that identify someone who is controlled by the Holy Spirit. We read in Galatians 5:22-24 about the “fruit” of the Spirit. This is the Holy Spirit’s fruit, and it is exhibited by the born-again believer who is under His control.
The verb tense in Ephesians 5:18 indicates a continual process of “being filled” by the Holy Spirit. Since it is an exhortation, it follows that it is also possible to not be filled or controlled by the Spirit. The rest of Ephesians 5 gives us the characteristics of a Spirit-filled believer. “Speak to one another with psalms, hymns and spiritual songs. Sing and make music in your heart to the Lord, always giving thanks to God the Father for everything, in the name of our Lord Jesus Christ. Submit to one another out of reverence for Christ” (Ephesians 5:19-21).
We are not filled with the Spirit because we feel we are, but because this is the privilege and possession of the Christian. Being filled or controlled by the Spirit is the result of walking in obedience to the Lord. This is a gift of grace and not an emotional feeling. Emotions can and will deceive us, and we can work ourselves up into an emotional frenzy that is purely from the flesh and not of the Holy Spirit. “So I say, live by the Spirit, and you will not gratify the desires of the sinful nature … Since we live by the Spirit, let us keep in step with the Spirit” (Galatians 5:16, 25).
Having said that, we cannot deny that there are times when we can be overwhelmed by the presence and the power of the Spirit, and this is often an emotional experience. When that happens, it is a joy like no other. King David “danced with all his might” (2 Samuel 6:14) when they brought up the Ark of the Covenant to Jerusalem. Experiencing joy by the Spirit is the understanding that as children of God we are being blessed by His grace. So, absolutely, the ministries of the Holy Spirit can involve our feelings and emotions. At the same time, we are not to base the assurance of our possession of the Holy Spirit on how we feel.



Syria’s rival hegemons
By CAROLINE B. GLICK /Jerusalem Post
07/08/2011 16:22
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=228411
While it is true that Turkey and Iran are rival hegemons, it is also true that they’re allied hegemons
Last Saturday, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah gave Hezbollah-backed Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati the political equivalent of a public thrashing. Last Thursday, Mikati gave a speech in which he tried to project an image of a leader of a government that has not abandoned the Western world completely. Mikati gave the impression that his Hezbollah-controlled government is not averse to cooperating with the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon. The Special Tribunal just indicted four Hezbollah operatives for their role in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri.
But on Saturday night, Nasrallah gave a speech in which he made clear that he has no intention whatsoever of cooperating with the Special Tribunal and that since he runs the show in Lebanon, Lebanon will not cooperate in any way with the UN judicial body. As an editorial at the NOW Lebanon website run by the anti- Hezbollah March 14 movement wrote, last Saturday night Nasrallah “demolished Mikati’s authority and the office from whence it comes, and used it as a rag to mop up what is left of Lebanese dignity.”
The March 14 movement has tried to make the Special Tribunal the litmus test for Mikati’s legitimacy, demanding that his government either cooperate with the UN Special Tribunal, or resign. But the fact is that the March 14 movement is no match for Hezbollah. Its protests are not capable of dislodging the Iranian-controlled jihadist movement from power.
Just as it always has, the fate of Lebanon today lies in the hands of outside powers. Hezbollah rules the roost in Lebanon because it is backed by Syria and Iran. Unlike the US and France, Iran and Syria are willing to fight for their proxy’s control over Lebanon. And so their proxy controls Lebanon. It follows then that assuming the US and France will continue to betray their allies in the March 14 democracy movement, Hezbollah will be removed from power in Lebanon only if its outside sponsors are unseated.
And it is this prospect, more than the UN Special Tribunal, that is keeping Nasrallah up at nights.
Last month, France’s Le Figaro reported that Hezbollah has moved hundreds of long-range Iranian-built Zilzal and Fajr 3 and Fajr 4 missiles from its missile depots in Syria to Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. The missile transfer was due to Hezbollah’s fear that Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime is on the verge of being toppled.
And there is good reason for Hezbollah’s concern. The breadth and depth of the anti-regime protests in Syria far overshadow the anti-regime protests in Egypt and Tunisia. As Victor Kotsev noted this week in the Asia Times, something like half a million people participated in the anti-regime demonstrations in Hama last Friday. Since, according to Syria’s 2009 census, Hama has just over 700,000 residents, the rate of public participation in the anti-regime protests dwarfs anything seen in any other Arab state since the anti-regime protests began last December.
According to Tariq Alhomayed, the editor in chief of Asharq Al-Awsat in English, Assad fired his provincial governor of Hama following last Friday’s demonstration for not shooting the demonstrators.
Assad’s move is yet another clear sign that he has no intention of compromising with his opponents. He will sooner destroy his country then let anyone else rule it.
And this makes sense. A son of the Alawite sect that makes up just 12 percent of Syria’s population, Assad has no serious support base in Syrian society outside his family-controlled military. He has repressed every group in his society including much of his own Alawite sect. As Syria expert Gary Gambill noted in Foreign Policy on Thursday, Assad has no post-regime prospects.
And so he can entertain no notion of compromise with his people.
Like Hezbollah, Assad’s ability to survive is also going to be determined elsewhere. To date, the US has backed Assad against the Syrian people and Europe has gone along.
For their part, the Iranians and their Hezbollah proxies are actively working to ensure their favored outcome in Syria. In testimony before the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday, IDF Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi repeated his claim that Iran and Hezbollah are actively assisting Assad’s forces in killing and repressing the Syrian people.
Kochavi explained, “The great motivation Iran and Hezbollah have to assist [Assad] comes from their deep worry regarding the implications these events might have, particularly losing control of their cooperation with the Syrians and having such events slide onto their own territories.”
From Iran’s perspective, the prospect of a renewal of the Green Movement anti-regime protests is the gravest threat facing the regime today as it reaches the nuclear threshold. As Iran expert Michael Ledeen wrote this week at Pajamas Media, the Iranian regime itself is plagued by internal fissures due to escalating estrangement and rivalry between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and supreme dictator Ali Khamenei.
Their infighting can be compared to pirates arguing over the division of their stolen loot as their ship sinks to the bottom of the ocean. Iran’s economy is failing. Its inflation rate is around 50%. Its people hate the regime. Lacking the ability to win the public over through politics, since the Green Movement protests in 2009 the regime has simply terrorized the Iranian people into submission.
Their fear of their people has only grown since the anti-regime protests in the Arab world began last December. And in line with this heightened fear, the regime has tripled its rate of public executions since the start of the year.
The Iranian regime understands that if Syria falls, it is liable to lose its ability keep its people down. The Alawite-dominated Syrian military is far more loyal to the Assad regime than the Iranian army is to the Iranian regime. And there have already been defections from the Syrian army among the junior officer corps.
Fearing insubordination in the ranks of its military and Revolutionary Guards, in 2009 the regime reportedly brought Hezbollah operatives to Iran to kill anti-regime demonstrators.
If Assad falls, Hezbollah will lose its logistical supply line from Iran. Moreover, Hezbollah will be so busy fending off challenges from no-longer-daunted Lebanese Sunnis empowered by their Syrian brethren, that its operatives will be less available to kill Iranian protesters.
With the US compliant with Assad and maintaining its policy of appeasing the Iranian regime, the only outside government currently making an attempt to influence events in Syria is Turkey. Although it is being careful to couch its anti-Assad policy in the rhetoric of compromise, given Assad’s inability to make any deal with his opponents, simply by calling for him to compromise, the Turkish government is making it clear that it seeks Assad’s overthrow. Turkey’s talk of sending troops into Syria to protect civilians and its willingness to set up refugee camps for the Syrians from border towns fleeing the Assad regime’s goons, make clear that Ankara is vying to expand its sphere of influence to Damascus in a post-Assad Syria.
Ankara's plans are all the more apparent when seen in the context of Turkish Prime Minister Recip Erdogan’s moves to reinstate Turkey as a regional hegemon along the lines of the Ottoman Empire. To this end, according to a report this week in The Hindu, since Erdogan’s Islamist AK Party formed its first government in 2003, it has been actively cultivating ties with Muslim Brotherhood movements throughout the region. The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood has deep ties to the Turkish government and the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood branch Hamas has been publicly supported by Erdogan’s government since 2006.
In the event that Turkey plays a significant role in a post-Assad Syria, it can be expected that the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood would fairly rapidly take control of the country.
Many commentators have argued that Turkey’s anti-Assad stance indicates that the recent warming of ties between Tehran and Ankara, (which among other things saw Erdogan siding with Iran against the US at the UN Security Council), is over.
But things in the Middle East are never cut and dried. While it is true that Turkey and Iran are rival hegemons, it is also true that they’re also allied hegemons. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Syria and Gaza have close ties to Hezbollah and Iran as well as to Turkey. Al-Qaida in Lebanon has close ties to Syria and working relationships with Hezbollah.
Then again, if Assad is overthrown, and his overthrow reinvigorates the Iranian Green revolution, given the pro-Western orientation of much of Iranian society, it is likely that at a minimum, Iran would drastically scale back its sponsorship of Hezbollah and other terror groups.
For Israel, Assad’s overthrow will be clear strategic gain in the short-and medium-term, even if a post-Assad Syrian government exchanges Syria’s Iranian overlords with Turkish overlords. Syria’s main threats to Israel stem from Assad’s support for Palestinian terrorists and Hezbollah, and from his ballistic missile and nuclear programs. While Turkey would perhaps maintain support for Palestinian terrorists and perhaps for Lebanese terrorists, it does not share Syria’s attraction to missiles and nuclear weapons as Iran does. Moreover, Ankara would not have a strong commitment to Hezbollah and so the major threat to Israel in Lebanon would be severely weakened.
Moreover, if Assad’s potential overthrow leads to increased revolutionary activities in Iran, the regime will have less time to devote to its nuclear program, and its nuclear installations will become more vulnerable to penetration and sabotage. A successor regime in Iran, seeking close ties with the West and be willing to pay for those ties by setting aside Iran’s nuclear program.
In the long-term, the reestablishment of a Turkish sphere of influence in the Arab world in Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority and Egypt through the Muslim Brotherhood will be extremely dangerous for Israel. With its jihadist ideology, its powerful conventional military forces, its strong economy and its strategic ties to the US and Europe, Turkey’s rise as a regional hegemon would present Israel with a difficult challenge.
Despite the massive dimensions of the anti-regime protests, it is still impossible to know how the situation in Syria will pan out. This uncertainty is heightened by the US’s passivity in the face of the uprising against its worst foe in the Arab world.
Given the strategic opportunities and dangers the situation in Syria presents to it, Israel cannot be a bystander in the drama unfolding to its north. True, Israel does not have the power the US has to dictate the outcome. But to the extent it is able to influence events, Israel should actively assist the non-Islamist regime opponents in Syria. This includes first and foremost the Syrian Kurds, but also the non-Islamist Sunni business class, the Druse and the Christians who are all participating the anti-regime protests. Israel should also oppose Turkish military intervention in Syria and openly advocate the establishment of a democratic, federal government in Syria to replace Assad’s dictatorship.
It might not work. But if it does, the payoff will be extraordinary.
caroline@carolineglick.com