LCCC
ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِAugust
28/2011
Bible Quotation for today.
Matthew 06/19-23: "19
“Don’t lay up treasures for yourselves on the earth, where moth and rust
consume, and where thieves break through and steal; but lay up for yourselves
treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust consume, and where thieves
don’t break through and steal; for where your treasure is, there your
heart will be also. “The lamp of the body is the eye. If therefore your
eye is sound, your whole body will be full of light. But if your eye is
evil, your whole body will be full of darkness. If therefore the light that is
in you is darkness, how great is the darkness!
Latest
analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases
from
miscellaneous
sources
The case of Wissam Eid/By:
Ana Maria Luca and Nadine Elali/August 27/11
Hezbollah's Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
Speech of 26 August/11
The Assad Regime on the
Middle East Geopolitical Chessboard/By
Elie Al-Chaer/August
27/11
The oil myth/By:
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/August 27/11
Syria’s brave demonstrators/The
Economist/August
27/11
Post Qaddafi: Insurgency and Jihad
versus Democracy/By: Walid Phares/August
27/11
Syria: Al-Assad says it’s a moral
crisis/By Tariq Alhomayed/August
27/11
Latest News
Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for August 27/11
Nigerian Islamist group known as
Boko Haram “spokesperson” claims deadly attack on UN in Nigeria
UN
headquarters car bomb in Nigeria kills 18
150 prisoners dead in Libyian
Tripoli “mass murder,” rebel chief says
Syria facing wider financial, oil sanctions
Ambassador Oren: Israel is very
concerned about Syrian WMDs
Egypt hires Sinai Bedouin militias
to combat Palestinian, al Qaeda terror
Anshel Pfeffer / Israel's biggest loss of all
'Million man' anti-Israel rally in Cairo attracts only hundreds
Second rocket hits Israel after renewal of Gaza cease-fire
NATO Bombs Gadhafi Hometown, Rebels Poised to Attack
Iran: Syria Should Recognize
People’s 'Legitimate Demands’
STL trial procedures expected to commence in mid-2012
March 14: Nasrallah is Threatening
Lebanese Public Opinion
Attacking” STL does not benefit
Hezbollah, says Future bloc MP Atef Majdalani
Saniora: Hizbullah Hiding 4 Hariri
Murder Suspects
Kataeb bloc MP Sami Gemayell
compares Hezbollah’s policies to Israel’s
Police Search for 2 Syrians
Kidnapped in Bekaa
Conflicting reports emerge on arrests of deacon’s assailants in Lassa
3 People Arrested for Attacking
Deacon in Lassa
Future bloc MP Jamal al-Jarrah
questions behavior of army officers in North
Lebanese Forces bloc MP Antoine
Zahra warns Aoun over draft energy law
Jumblat Holds Onto Stance as
Nicolas Nahhas Seeks Consensual Solution to Electricity Crisis
Report: Energy Ministry Civil
Servants Sidelined by Bassil’s Advisors
Mansour to Cairo ‘to Collaborate
with Arab Countries on Regional Stability’
Canada Marks Anniversary of
Assassination of Colonel Attila Altikat
Nigerian
Islamist group known as Boko Haram “spokesperson” claims deadly attack on UN in
Nigeria
August 26, 2011 /A man claiming to be a spokesperson for the Nigerian Islamist
group known as Boko Haram claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on UN
headquarters in the country's capital Abuja Friday."Through the wisdom of Allah,
we have launched the attack with absolute precision," the man who identified
himself as Abu Darda said in a telephone call to an AFP journalist. "The attack
was carefully scripted and executed. We have said it several times that the UN
is one of our prime targets." The veracity of his claim could not be verified.
"We will provide details of the martyr who carried out the suicide attack," the
man said. "More attacks are on the way, and by the will of Allah we will have
unfettered access to wherever we want to attack. We have more than 100 men who
are willing to lay down their lives for the cause of Allah."-AFP/NOW Lebanon
STL trial procedures expected to commence in mid-2012
August 27, 2011
By Rima S. Aboulmona The Daily Star
BEIRUT: A trial in the probe into the assassination of former statesman Rafik
Hariri six years ago will start in mid-2012, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon
confirmed Friday. “The trial will begin in mid-2012, whether in absentia or
not,” the STL registrar said in remarks published Friday, adding that the judges
would determine the exact trial date. “I can confirm that the registrar
indicated that a trial could begin in mid-2012. This date is an estimate that is
being used for administrative planning at the tribunal,” an STL spokesperson
told The Daily Star Friday. “Any decision about the start of a trial will be
made by the judges in the trial chamber alone,” he added. In a video on the STL
website, Hebel stresses that the decision over guilt of the accused will be left
to the trial and appeals chamber. In June, the STL issued an indictment and
arrest warrants for four Hezbollah members for involvement in the 2005
assassination of Hariri. The tribunal made the indictment public in mid-August
after Lebanese authorities failed to arrest the four men within the 30-day
deadline. Hezbollah has repeatedly denied involvement, dismissing the STL as an
“Israeli tool” designed to target the resistance and foment strife in Lebanon.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah has said the accused men will not be
caught “even in 300 years.” The long-awaited indictment, unsealed on Aug. 18,
relied heavily on telecommunications data linking the four Hezbollah suspects to
the murder. This has prompted Hezbollah to discredit the Hariri case, which has
divided Lebanon since the former prime minister and 21 others were assassinated
while Hariri’s motorcade drove along Beirut’s seafront. A great deal of the
content of the indictment had been leaked to the media over the past two years,
a fact that Nasrallah has said clearly shows that the investigation has been
corrupted beyond repair.
Conflicting reports emerge on arrests of deacon’s assailants in Lassa
August 27, 2011 01:47 AM The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Conflicting reports emerged Friday over the arrest of men accused of
assaulting a deacon and another man earlier this month in Lassa, a predominantly
Shiite village in Jbeil, whose residents are caught in a land ownership dispute
with the Maronite patriarchate. While Interior Minister Marwan Charbel said the
men suspected of being behind the assault on the assistant priest and his
companion were arrested, some of Lassa’s residents cast doubts over the
credibility of Charbel’s statements. Residents told the Central News Agency that
the main suspect behind the attack was seen traveling freely in the village and
raised doubts over the alleged role of the two individuals who were arrested for
the attack.
The residents described the arrest of the two individuals as “a theatrical play
to deceive the public into believing that the perpetrators were handed over to
the judiciary.”
Deacon Tony Halim and his companion were attacked a week ago as they escorted
security forces, which entered the village to implement a judicial order to
demolish illegal construction on land owned by the Maronite patriarchate. March
14 officials have accused Hezbollah of providing the assailants with political
cover and encouraging illegal construction in the area in a bid to establish a
security zone in the pre-dominantly Christian district of Jbeil. March 14
Secretariat General coordinator Fares Soueid, who formed a committee to follow
up on the issue, is formulating a plan in cooperation with Lebanese Forces
leader Samir Geagea to defend land owned by the patriarchate, sources told the
CNA.
Geagea and Soueid are expected to propose the plan during visits to Patriarch
Beshara Rai, President Michel Sleiman and Charbel. The vice president of the LF,
Chouf George Adwan, said Friday that the disputed ownership of land in Lassa
should be subject to the rule of law rather than political compromises. The
Maronite patriarchate had reportedly reached an agreement with Shiite residents
of Lassa during a meeting last month headed by Patriarch Beshara Rai with the
participation of a Hezbollah delegation. Higher Shiite Council deputy head
Sheikh Abdel-Amir Qabalan is expected to visit Lassa after Eid al-Fitr in a bid
to calm sectarian tensions and promote national coexistence, the CNA reported. A
statement released by residents of Jbeil last week said the state should fulfill
its responsibility by implementing the law and preserving civil peace. Jbeil, a
district with a majority of Christian residents and a minority of Shiite
residents in mainly its southern mountainous region, was one of the few regions
where sectarian clashes did not take place during the Civil War.
Saniora:
Hizbullah Hiding 4 Hariri Murder Suspects
Naharnet /Former Premier Fouad Saniora has reiterated that Nasrallah had links
to the four suspects indicted by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and was
contributing to their protection.
During a press conference he held in the southern city of Sidon on Saturday, the
Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc leader said Hizbullah’s rejection to cooperate with
the STL, which is probing ex-Premier Rafik Hariri’s Feb. 2005 assassination, is
“strange” and “illegal.”“Hizbullah is refusing to implement the law and
protecting the accused,” he said.
The party’s insistence that none of the four suspects made an interview with
TIME magazine, confirms that it has ties with the Hizbullah members who were
indicted by the tribunal, Saniora said. He challenged Hizbullah to provide the
evidence that the four men didn’t carry out Hariri’s murder during trials at the
STL, saying “if they have anything to say, then its place is at court where they
can make all objections and show evidence.”
Iran: Syria Should Recognize People’s 'Legitimate Demands’
Naharnet /The Syrian government should recognize the "legitimate demands" of its
people, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, whose nation is the main ally
of Damascus, was quoted as saying Saturday. "The government should answer to the
demands of its people, be it Syria, Yemen or other countries," the ISNA news
agency quoted him as saying. "The people of these nations have legitimate
demands and the governments should reply to these demands as soon as possible,"
Salehi added. "We have the same stance towards popular developments in the
Middle East and North Africa. We believe that the developments in the region
emanate from discontent and dissatisfaction in these countries," he said. But he
warned against about toppling the Syrian regime. "A vacuum in the Syrian regime
would have an unpredictable impact for the region and its neighbors," Salehi
said, referring to calls by the United States and European leaders for Assad to
step down. Washington, the European Union and Syrian opposition groups have
accused Tehran of helping Syrian security forces put down the uprising, a claim
vehemently denied by Iran. Salehi's comments came two days after Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called for dialogue between Damascus and the
opposition to end months of deadly violence. "The people and government of Syria
must come together to reach an understanding," Ahmadinejad said on Wednesday.
Tehran has supported the protests in all Arab countries except Syria, its main
Arab ally, where the Islamic republic backed the government of President Bashar
al-Assad, asking him to implement some reforms.
At the same time, Iran has accused arch-foes Israel and the United States of
trying to undermine Syria. **Source Agence France Presse
March 14: Nasrallah is Threatening Lebanese Public Opinion
Naharnet/March 14 general-secretariat coordinator Fares Soaid has stressed that
Hizbullah was threatening the Lebanese public opinion by warning the Lebanese
who are allegedly contributing to the tension in Syria. On Friday, Nasrallah
warned in a speech of the negative fallout from the turmoil in Syria on the
entire region. He warned the Lebanese who “are helping stir the tension in Syria
and sending weapons that they will not linger forever.” The Shiite party
chief “made an attempt to block any initiative that could create an Arab
salvation movement in the final 15 minutes before the collapse of the Syrian
regime,” Soaid told An Nahar daily published Saturday. “Nasrallah also
threatened to ignite the region if any military action was taken against the
Syrian regime,” he said. The Hizbullah secretary-general also sent the message
that the party has nothing to do with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, Soaid
added.
3 People Arrested for Attacking Deacon in Lassa
Naharnet /The number of suspects arrested for assaulting a deacon and another
man earlier this month in the predominantly Shiite town of Lassa rose to three
after two more people admitted to the crime, the National News Agency reported
Saturday. NNA said that Rouwad al-Moqdad, 30, and Fares al-Moqdad, 28, were
handed over to the military police after admitting that they were behind the
assault on Deacon Tony Hakim and his companion Anis Daou on Aug. 20. Security
forces arrested two days ago Mohammed Itawi who also admitted to participating
on the assault on Hakim as he escorted security forces to implement a judicial
order to demolish illegal construction on land owned by the Maronite
patriarchate. The residents of Lassa, which lies in the district of Jbeil, are
caught in a land dispute with the church. The March 14-led opposition accuses
Hizbullah of allowing the residents to build on church land and providing a
cover for the property violators. NNA said that investigations are ongoing to
find those who instigated the attack
Mansour to Cairo ‘to Collaborate with Arab Countries on Regional Stability’
Naharnet /Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour travelled to Cairo on Saturday to
attend an emergency Arab foreign ministers meeting on Syria, Libya and Yemen. He
told reporters at the Beirut airport that Lebanon “would collaborate with the
Arab countries to have stability, calm and peace in the region.” As Safir daily
quoted a source as saying that Mansour and his Syrian counterpart are
coordinating the stances that they would make at the meeting. Any statement
issued by the Arab foreign ministers requires Arab consensus in accordance with
the Arab League by-laws, the source said, adding however that the Lebanese and
Syrian viewpoints differ from that of Qatar which is seeking either Security
Council action on Syria or the formation of an Arab follow-up committee similar
to the one formed during the Lebanese civil war to pave way for the Taef
conference.
Police Search for 2 Syrians Kidnapped in Bekaa
Naharnet /Security forces were on Saturday searching for two Syrian nationals
who were kidnapped by three armed men a day earlier after crossing the Syrian
border into the Bekaa Valley. The gunmen in a Hyundai four-wheeler with tinted
glass windows intercepted a Jaguar in Bar Elias in the central Bekaa and
kidnapped Mohammad Ayman Ammar, 49 and Nour Jamil Qadoura, 30. The Lebanese
driver of the Jaguar, however, was not kidnapped and a bag containing $5,000
wasn’t taken either, media reports said. The driver, Khalil Saleh al-Agha, was
questioned by police. Security forces are also interrogating the family members
of Ammar and Qadoura. Pan-Arab daily al-Hayat said that the two Syrians enter
Lebanon regularly. Qadoura has a furniture company in Lebanon and Ammar works as
an accountant in the firm
Report: Energy Ministry Civil Servants Sidelined by Bassil’s Advisors
Naharnet /Energy Minister Jebran Bassil has signed contracts with 40 people to
assist him in the administration of his ministry, sidelining civil servants
working in the institution, al-Liwaa daily reported Saturday. The newspaper said
that the 40 advisors have received large-scale authorities. They have assumed
full control of all aspects of the ministry’s administration and limited the
role of officials in several departments. Bassil’s move has restricted the role
of the energy ministry as a state institution, al-Liwaa claimed. The minister is
currently at the center of a dispute over a draft law that his father-in-law
Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun has proposed to parliament. The
divided cabinet has so far failed to agree on the project which allocates $1.2
billion directly to Bassil to build power plants that would generate 700
megawatts of electricity.
Jumblat Holds Onto Stance as Nicolas Nahhas Seeks
Consensual Solution to Electricity Crisis
Naharnet /Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun has delegated Minister
Charbel Nahhas to discuss with Progressive Socialist Party chief Walid Jumblat
the electricity crisis but the Druze leader seems to hold onto his stance of
forming a committee that would oversee the spending of funds allocated to the
energy minister. Media reports said that Nahhas discussed with Jumblat on Friday
the proposal to form the committee, which has faced stiff opposition from the
FPM. Aoun and his son-in-law Energy Minister Jebran Bassil are insisting that
each ministry gets a similar committee but ministers loyal to Jumblat stress on
having a team of experts overseeing the expenditure of only the energy ministry
claiming that Bassil is seeking to spend from outside the state budget while the
funds of remaining ministries are from the budget. The cabinet has so far failed
to approve a draft law proposed by Aoun to allocate $1.2 billion to Bassil to
build power plants that would generate 700 megawatts of electricity. The next
government session is scheduled to be held on Sept. 7. The bill later needs the
endorsement of parliament.
Sources close to Premier Najib Miqati have unveiled that Nahhas is working on a
consensual draft law that would be proposed to the cabinet.
Social Affairs Minister, Wael Abou Faour, who is loyal to Jumblat said following
talks with Speaker Nabih Berri on Friday that the PSP was ready to hear any
suggestion or solution to the electricity crisis. But al-Liwaa daily quoted
Jumblat as telling his party members that he rejects any compromise on the power
bill. “It is necessary to monitor the spending of the money and the
implementation of the plan.” PSP sources told the newspaper that the Druze
leader’s adamancy to form a committee would have negative repercussions on the
ties between Jumblat and Aoun. Ministers loyal to Aoun have threated to boycott
cabinet sessions unless the government approves the bill.
Canada Marks Anniversary of Assassination of Colonel Attila
Altikat
(No. 247 – August 27, 2011 – 7:35 a.m. ET) Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird
today issued the following statement on the occasion of the anniversary of the
assassination of Colonel Attila Altikat, military attaché at the Embassy of
Turkey in Ottawa: “On behalf of all Canadians, I would like to renew our
expression of deep sympathy to the Colonel’s family and friends, as well as to
the Government of Turkey and the Turkish people. “Canada condemns such violence
as a means of furthering political objectives. “On this day, we underline our
commitment to working with our Turkish partners to combat terrorism in all its
forms.” The only foreign diplomat to be killed in an act of international
terrorism on Canadian soil, Colonel Altikat was assassinated on the morning of
August 27, 1982, on his way to work in Ottawa. Canada remains committed to
bringing the perpetrators to justice.
Kataeb bloc MP Sami Gemayell compares Hezbollah’s policies to Israel’s
August 27, 2011 /Now Lebanon /Kataeb bloc MP Sami Gemayel said on Saturday that
Hezbollah is practicing “a unique policy of settlements” similar to Israel’s.
“Hezbollah depended on military power to control a certain area, and the Jews
depended [on the same thing] to take over Palestine,” he told As-Sharq radio
station. The Israelis also used money to control “their areas of authority and
buy lands,” and Hezbollah is using “this style to expand inside Lebanon and
control the rest of the Lebanese people,” Gemayel added. “Hezbollah does not act
as a Lebanese party or as a partner in the country. Hezbollah [accuses] everyone
who opposes it of being an enemy.” Hezbollah does not give anyone the chance to
have an opposing opinion, the MP also said, adding that the Lebanese people are
the “ones who decide whether to cancel or to confront Israel.” “All Arab
countries are in a state of peace with Israel, in an official or a non-official
manner. Only the Lebanese people pay the price of regional interests that
[Lebanon] has nothing to do with.”
Gemayel also said it is unlikely for Hezbollah to lose its power if the Syrian
regime collapses, saying the group has its own military and financial abilities
as well as Iran’s backing.
The MP also said that if Hezbollah is innocent of assassinating former Prime
Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, it should not “place itself in confrontation with
the Lebanese people [by protecting] the cell that [is accused of] committed the
crime.” Four Hezbollah members have been indicted by the tribunal for the Rafik
Hariri murder. However, the Shia group strongly denied the charges and refused
to cooperate with the court.-NOW Lebanon
Attacking” STL does not benefit Hezbollah, says Future bloc MP Atef Majdalani
August 27, 2011/Now Lebanon /Future bloc MP Atef Majdalani said on Saturday that
Hezbollah’s press conferences and “attacks” against the Special Tribunal for
Lebanon (STL) and its indictment do not benefit Hezbollah. Majdalani told the
Free Lebanon radio station that his party did not expect Hezbollah to protect
those indicted by STL, which is probing the 2005 assassination of former Prime
Minister Rafik Hariri. “Standing in court is the only [way] to exonerate the
indicted [suspects].” Four Hezbollah members have been indicted by the tribunal.
However, the Shia group strongly denied the charges and refused to cooperate
with the court. Majdalani added that the Future Movement and March 14 are not
“attacking” the Resistance. “We are attacking their actions that took place in
Beirut and other areas and which turned [Hezbollah] into a militia,” he said in
reference to the 2008 May Events where gunmen led by Hezbollah took over half of
the Lebanese capital. Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said
on Friday that “[Our opponents] in Lebanon are collaborating with the outside to
harm…the Resistance. They have always looked to cause strife.” Commenting
on reports that the Future Movement and its MPs are launching a “campaign”
against the army, Majdalani said “we did not attack the army. We want to
military institution to be the strongest in Lebanon.” “However, we want to draw
the military institution’s attention to some violations that must be corrected.”
“We are not the ones who tried the harm the army’s credibility, and not the ones
who tried to make the army look weak.” -NOW Lebanon
Future bloc MP Jamal al-Jarrah questions behavior of army officers in North
August 27, 2011 /Future bloc MP Jamal al-Jarrah told Sawt al-Mada radio station
on Saturday that the behavior of some army officers in events that happened in
North Lebanon, particularly in Akkar, were “weird, illogical and unfamiliar.”
“Why is [Akkar] being dealt with as such?” Jarrah asked. The MP did not state
what incident he was speaking about, but did blast the army for not reacting to
an armed clash. “It is as if the army and the state are not concerned about what
is happening.”Jarrah also called on the army command to put an end to such
actions.-NOW Lebanon
Lebanese Forces bloc MP Antoine Zahra warns Aoun over draft energy law
August 27, 2011 /Lebanese Forces bloc MP Antoine Zahra told New TV on Saturday
that Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun cannot get an “illegal” draft
bill passed, in reference to the energy bill proposed by the latter’s bloc.
“If Aoun does not accept this, he [can] go and commit suicide. It is his
affair,” Zahra added. Zahra also defended March 14, saying the alliance never
claims to be infallible as Hezbollah does. “We are proud of what we achieved
[through] the Cedar Revolution, and we are not ashamed of any word we said,
before or after the WikiLeaks [leaked cables].” “If they consider leaked
WikiLeaks [cables] to be true and honest, then they should all shut up because [WikiLeaks]
shows that [former] Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, whom they accused of being a
traitor, was the most concerned [person] about Lebanon’s sovereignty.” Aoun on
August 16 warned that his bloc would withdraw from the cabinet if it does not
pursue development projects. Nasrallah on Friday said that “when Lebanese
parties [notably the western-backed March 14 coalition] talk about Lebanese
freedom and sovereignty, [their words] are empty. The leaked US cables,
WikiLeaks, proved it.”-NOW Lebanon
The case of Wissam Eid
Ana Maria Luca and Nadine Elali,
August 27, 2011
Now Lebanon
Three and a half years after her 31-year-old son, Internal Security Forces (ISF)
Captain Wissam Eid, was blown up on a highway in Beirut while working on the
telecommunications data related to the Rafik Hariri assassination in 2005,
Samira Eid says she has her own notebook of facts and dates related to his
death. Nobody was ever interested in it, but she knows all of it by heart and
hopes that someday, somebody will expose his killers.
“The Lebanese authorities?” she says. “When did they ever find anybody?” She
says her faith is that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) will someday be in
charge of her son’s case. But according to the STL statute, the international
court only has jurisdiction over the murders committed before December 12, 2005
and can only start an investigation into Eid’s case after a long series of
bureaucratic steps.
First, the Prosecutor’s Office has to prove that the case is linked with the
Hariri murder. Then the prosecutor submits a report to the president of the
court, who has to send the document to the United Nations Security Council. The
UNSC has to send the report to the Lebanese government, which has to decide if
it wants to officially ask the tribunal to investigate the case.
“If there’s any murder that the STL should look into as related to Rafik
Hariri’s case, it should be Wissam’s,” Samira Eid says. “For me there’s no
comfort in this. But I know and everybody knows why he was killed. We want the
Special Tribunal for Lebanon to reveal the truth about who is behind all these
assassinations, although deep down we know.”
According to his parents, Eid was working with the Information Branch of the ISF
and was assigned the Hariri case a few months after the former PM was killed.
“He was brilliant; he had a great future ahead of him. Wissam was initially
hired to put together the ISF’s information system,” his father Mahmoud says.
But when Eid started to work on the case, their lives began to change. “We
started getting phone calls. People called and asked when he left, when he came
back. He became very tense,” she recalls. But the situation became much worse
after Eid’s superior, Samir Chehadeh, was the target of an attack and left to
Canada. “All his responsibilities were transferred to Wissam. He had to form a
team that reported directly to [head of the ISF] Achraf Rifi and [head of the
ISF Information Branch] Wissam al-Hassan. Every time he made progress with the
investigation, the threats were greater,” his mother says.
Eid was the target of several assassination attempts. “The first time, in 2006,
they only gave him a warning. The bomb went off when he touched his front
doorknob. He ran and got his gun, went out on the balcony and he saw two men
getting into a car and driving away.”
The second attack, his mother says, was while Eid was investigating the militant
Palestinian group Fatah al-Islam, which launched a war against the Lebanese army
in the northern refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared in 2007. According to his mother,
Eid was severely wounded when the ISF raided a house in Tripoli where Fatah
al-Islam members were hiding weapons. “That night I saw a car in front of our
house. There were men there waiting, dressed in black. They saw me go out to the
balcony, and they got into the car and left,” she recalls. Later that night, she
says, her son called and told them he had been injured in a raid, and they
rushed to the hospital. “While we were [at the hospital] we received news that
they were going to come to the hospital and kill him there.” The Eids had to
leave their son and take shelter while he was being transferred to Beirut.
Even after being attacked Eid did not accept protection, according to his
mother. “He used to say that if Rafik Hariri was killed with all the protection
he had, if they wanted Wissam dead, they would have done it anyway. And he
didn’t want more people to die with him,” she says.
The attacks continued. His brother saw two men trying to place a bomb under his
car. A few months later, on January 25, 2008, Wissam Eid died in an explosion in
Hazmieh, a suburb of Beirut. “We expected it. We watched the news to see if
there was an explosion, waiting petrified to see if Wissam was the victim,”
Samira Eid says.
Three years and a half later, both of Eid’s parents are convinced that if they
ever see their child’s killers brought to justice, it will not happen soon.
“They don’t tell us anything; we don’t have any clue about what’s being reached
in the investigations. We are treated just like any normal person. We hear the
news on television,” Samira Eid says.
“He was an employee of the Lebanese state and an employee of the Internal
Security Forces. It is their responsibility to file a lawsuit,” Mahmoud Eid
points out, adding that the UN investigation commission had contacted them. He
says that he is aware that the STL has to ask permission from the Lebanese state
to investigate his son’s case, adding that he expects a refusal from the current
government. “But we also expect the STL to pressure the Lebanese authorities to
release information about the case. Wissam was a key witness in the Hariri case
and Wissam’s death itself is evidence. The whole case is based on the
information he provided,” the father says.
150 prisoners dead in Libyian Tripoli “mass murder,” rebel chief says
August 26, 2011 /Forces loyal to embattled Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi killed
more than 150 prisoners in a "mass murder" as they fled the rebel takeover of
Tripoli, a rebel military chief told AFP on Friday, "There were instances of
revenge in the last few hours before the fall of the regime," said Abdel Nagib
Mlegta, head of operations for the takeover of the capital.
"In Bab al-Aziziya there was a mass murder. They killed more than 150 prisoners.
The guards did it before running away. They threw hand grenades at them," he
said, referring to Qaddafi's fortified headquarters. Mlegta said his fighters
had seized control of 95 percent of the capital. "There are just a few pockets
of resistance," in the districts of Salah al-Din and Abu Salim, he said. The
rebel chief hoped to fully control Tripoli and capture Qaddafi within 72
hours.-AFP/NOW Lebanon
Egypt hires Sinai Bedouin militias to combat Palestinian, al Qaeda terror
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 27, 2011, The Egyptian army is negotiating
deals with 13 Sinai Bedouin tribal chiefs for setting up militias to counter
alien militant activity in their territories across the peninsula and in the
Israeli border region. On offer are new weapons, training and monthly paychecks
for undertaking this task. Sinai has a Bedouin population of approximately
100,000 from which, debkafile's military sources estimate, a fighting force of
8,000-10,000 can potentially be mustered.
Those sources note that Egypt has turned to the doctrine US Gen. David Petraeus,
now CIA Director, applied in Iraq 2006 and 2007 to enlist Iraq's Sunni tribal
leaders in the western region to the war on al Qaeda by providing them with
arms, training and regular payments.
The Egyptian army has so far managed to recruit two tribal leaders.
Abu Ahmed, chief of the Sawarkas, agreed this week to organize his men into a
fighting force for securing the Egyptian-Israeli border and safeguarding it
against terrorist and smuggling incursions from Sinai. Sawarka territory starts
at the Philadelphi strip bordering southern Gaza and runs west along the
Mediterranean coast of northern Sinai.
The Tiyaha tribe was also persuaded to join the Egyptian effort to purge Sinai
of terrorists and smugglers. It controls a large square of land between the
Nitzana border crossing south of the Gaza Strip up to central Sinai. This tribe
and the Sawarka command the routes from southern Gaza into southern Sinai. They
are partners in the arms smuggling tunnels into the Gaza Strip and control the
criminal networks smuggling people, drugs and arms into Israel.
Now Cairo wants them to turn to preventing a repeat of the Aug. 18 cross-border
terrorist raid by gunmen who killed 8 Israelis on the Eilat highway. debkafile's
military sources report that the 15-20 terrorists who carried out the Eilat
highway raid spent days in Tiyaha territory before they attacked Israel.
On the principle that it takes one to catch one, the Egyptians hope to transform
these Bedouin tribes from smugglers and abettors of terrorists into guardians of
the law and strong arms for stamping out the criminal networks and cross-border
terrorist violence in Sinai.
Their effort may face its first test quite soon: Israel has solid intelligence
of a Palestinian Jihad Islami group, which is sponsored by Tehran, heading from
Gaza into Sinai for more cross-border raids into Israel. If the new arrangement
stands up, one or both of the new Bedouin militias will intercept the attackers
in time and hand them over to the Egyptian authorities.
Movement is also reported in another part of northern Sinai, where the US
military contingent of the Multinational Force, posted there for the past three
decades to secure the Israeli-Egyptian peace accord, has been ordered to enhance
its training to meet the situation declining in Sinai since the Egyptian
revolution.
An MFO official said the nearly 900 American soldiers were being instructed in
force and facility protection amid Al Qaida-aligned attacks in Egypt.
"We have probably added more combat drills," US Army Col. Eric Evans said.
"We're doing more stuff with weapons and movements. We added a little more
intensity."
Our military sources report, however, that the claims in the Cairo media of an
Egyptian plan to demolish the Hamas smuggling tunnels were nothing more than
disinformation to mask its ongoing campaign of recruitment among Bedouin tribes.
If it takes off, Israel and its military will be confronted with three
fundamental issues:
1. Since the Egyptian-Israeli natural gas pipe was first blown up on February 5,
Israel has allowed around 3,000 soldiers to enter Sinai, over and above the
quota of limited to lightly-armed border police permitted by military clauses of
their peace treaty.
Nonetheless, Saturday, Aug. 27, Egyptian officials made a point of contradicting
an assertion by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak the day before that Israel
had already agreed to the transfer of several thousands Egyptian troops to Sinai
to tighten security there. Cairo is clearly not satisfied and wants to augment
their numbers. Israel will have to make up its mind whether to allow Egypt
pumping more troops into Sinai. Even if its consent is ad hoc, once there, the
extra Egyptian troops are unlikely to leave.
2. For the first time in Sinai history, the competent authorities will be
handing security to its indigenous inhabitants.
Since most of the Sinai tribes have kinship ties with Bedouins on the Israeli
side of the border, Israel might have to decide to set up a corresponding
Bedouin militia for guard duty on its side. The framework is there. The Israeli
army already has a Bedouin reconnaissance battalion operating in the Gaza
sector.
3. Both Egypt and Israel have had enough experience of Sinai Bedouin tribes in
at least three wars not to trust their shifting loyalties. Unlike the Iraqi
Sunni tribes of al Anbar, their obligations to paymasters whom they regard as
aliens or interlopers are interchangeable according to circumstances and the
size of imbursement on offer. So if the smugglers, al Qaeda ore Palestinian
terrorist organizations top the Egyptian offer, the tribal chiefs won't say no.
Cairo's plan for combating Sinai terror by proxy is therefore pretty flimsy.
Syria: Al-Assad says it’s a moral crisis!
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
The Syrian state news agency [SANA] quoted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as
saying that the crisis in his country is a crisis of morals. He made this
statement during an iftar banquet at the Damascene Hall held in honor of Syrian
religious scholars. These same scholars failed to express any opinion – as
reported by SANA – about the crimes that are taking place in Syria today,
whether we are talking about the crimes against Syrian citizens or against
religion.
The crisis in Syria is truly a moral crisis, for how can we say otherwise when
we see a Baathist regime that has not hesitated in killing almost 2,200 Syrian
citizens, arresting and displacing thousands more? This is a regime that cuts
the throats of anybody who chants [in support of the revolution], as well as
breaks the hands of those who draw [in support of the revolution]. How can this
not be a moral crisis when we see minarets being destroyed at the hands of the
Syrian security apparatus during the holy Islamic month of Ramadan, amidst a
shameful silence by many Arab states? This is not all, for in addition to
killing people and destroying the country, al-Assad’s supporters are also
repeating certain slogans to the Syrian people, including chanting “Bashar is
your God”. Indeed every region of Syria has been subject to an invasion by the
Syrian security forces and Shabiha [pro-regime militia] who spray graffiti on
walls like “Bashar is your God” and “Bashar is the God of the Arabs.” Indeed, we
have also seen video tapes – smuggled out of Syria – in which we see Syrian
security officers beating and humiliating [detained] Syrian citizens, forcing
them to recite that “there is no God but Bashar” or “there is no God but Maher
[al-Assad], and other even worse slogans that cannot be published here!
When we say that it is a moral crisis, this is for a very simple reason; how can
we respond to those who describe the Arabs and Muslims as being hypocritical and
enforcing double standards when they are silent to the heresy and apostasy on
the part of the al-Assad regime security forces, whilst they reacted
hysterically to the European cartoons of the Prophet, the US pastor who burnt a
copy of the Quran, and even declared Salman Rushdie an infidel for his
uninspiring novel [Satanic Verses]? Is it reasonable for Syrian Muslim scholars
to accept all of the Syrian regime’s practices, and not to issue a single
rejection or say even one word about this unjust tyrant? Why did they fail to
say anything, particularly as a number of prominent Syrian scholars were in
attendance of this iftar banquet held by al-Assad in Damascus, including Syrian
Minister of Awqaf (Religious Endowment) Mohammed Abdul Sattar, Syrian Grand
Mufti Ahmed Baderdeen Hassoun, Sheikh Mohamed Said Ramadan al-Bouti, the Mufti
of Homs, and others?
This issue does not just involve Syria, but rather all those that support the
al-Assad regime, for where is [Grand Ayatollah] Sayyid Ali al-Sistani and his
fatwas regarding what is happening in Syria? Where is the Syrian Supreme Leader
of Iran [Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] who describes himself as the “Guardian of
the Muslims”? What about the imams of Tehran’s mosques, particularly those who
love to talk about what is permissible and prohibited [in Islam] and put forward
their analysis? Where are these Iranian imams, who love to speak about
protecting the religion of Islam and attacking the enemies of religion, today?
Where are their speeches about the attacks on mosques [in Syria], and the
violation of religion, with Syrian security officers making apostatic and
heretical statements? What is even more ironic is [Hezbollah chief] Hassan
Nasrallah – the cause of regional chaos – coming out to warn against sectarian
strife in Syria in support of al-Assad, not caring about al-Assad’s attacks on
mosques or the shedding of innocent Syrian blood, not to mention the al-Assad
regime’s affront to religion! Therefore this is truly a moral crisis; one
created by the al-Assad regime and its affiliates!
N.B Mr. Alhomayed's editorials will be on hold until after Eid al-Fitr. Happy
Eid and peace be with you!
Syria’s brave demonstrators
What makes unarmed protesters defy snipers and tanks for months?
Aug 27th 2011
The Economist
MAHMOUD’S body is cut and bruised and his eyelids are swollen. Yet the first
question the 25-year-old has for the doctor treating him after a brutal beating
by security forces is when he will be well enough again to join street protests.
The determination and bravery of Syrian demonstrators has confounded outside
observers and surprised many Syrians themselves. In January, at the dawn of the
Arab spring, few thought Syria a likely participant. Its people are said to be
gentle and warm by nature, lacking the fire of those in Iraq or Libya, where
civil wars have recently raged. Years of repression had depoliticised its
society. And some people were at last reaping the rewards of economic reforms.
Yet time and again over the past five months Syrian protesters have stuck their
chests into the paths of bullets, trying to face down brutal thugs.
What has emboldened them? Syrians cite dignity. Many say they previously put up
with the regime of Bashar Assad because they thought it was getting enough
things right. “He gave us a sense of dignity by not being craven, unlike Egypt’s
Hosni Mubarak,” says one Syrian analyst of Mr Assad’s relationship with America.
But when the regime started shooting at some of its own people, many more felt
humiliated for ever having believed in it. The more violence the security forces
used, the angrier people became. With over 2,200 people dead so far, and
thousands more detained and tortured, almost everybody knows someone affected.
Mr Assad’s personal conduct has also infuriated Syrians. He shrugged off co-ordinated
calls by America, Britain, France and Germany for him to step aside, feebly
saying they were evidence of “Western colonialism”. He also made flimsy promises
of legislative reform and elections for the rubber-stamp parliament in February.
Protesters very much believe in a home-grown revolution. They are sympathetic to
the West but do not want any military intervention. They are frustrated that
Russia and China are undermining international pressure on the Syrian
government. Many hope the European Union, which buys up to 90% of Syria’s oil, a
big earner for the government, will follow America in imposing energy sanctions.
The president, once widely liked, has added insult to injury. At every turn,
most recently in a televised interview on August 21st, he has described the
hundreds of thousands of peaceful protesters as being led by armed or religious
extremists. The uprising has not been driven by religion, but Syrian society has
grown more devout in recent years. The thought of martyrdom is a comfort to
some. Unlike in neighbouring Iraq, sectarian rifts have not so far played a big
role in Syria’s attempt at regime change. They exist, but Syrians pride
themselves on their cosmopolitan history. “We have no problem between us,” has
been a common refrain during the protests.
Hezbollah's Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah Speech of 26 August/11
August 26, 2011
On August 26, Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah delivered a
televised address in an event marking the annual “Al-Quds Day” – or Jerusalem
Day, which is a ceremony held on the last Friday of Ramadan commemorating the
Palestinian struggle :
“In the name of God, the holy, the merciful. We pray for and salute our prophet
Muhammad (peace be upon him) and all the other prophets. May peace and mercy
fall upon you. First of all, I welcome you all, brothers and sisters. On this
day, [the annual Al-Quds Day – or Jerusalem Day] and this year, we chose to
celebrate this occasion here [in Maroun al-Ras in South Lebanon], because of its
symbolism and because [from here] you can see the hills of Palestine.
The struggle of the Resistance and the Lebanese army [against Israel] is ridden
with symbols. In past months, this town has also witnessed a mobilization of
people who protested for their right of return to Palestine. The West wants this
celebration to be forgotten. We are reviving it out of our eagerness to assume
our jihadist, political, financial and cultural responsibilities. Without
appreciating [this celebration], prayers and values would be pointless.
I will address the [matter of the] Palestinian [territories], the latest
developments in the Middle East, including Libya and Syria, and I will end [my
speech] with the latest developments in Lebanon. Responsibilities [should be
assumed] toward Jerusalem in order to protect the land [from the Israelis]. We
reiterate that no one should hand over any piece of Palestinian [land] to
Israel. Establishing a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders is a
Palestinian issue.
Our ambition is to see an independent Palestinian state. This state shall be
formed. We must remember the Palestinian refugees, especially those living in
Lebanon. As we remember these painful problems, we must notice that they are
caused by the [Israeli] occupation. We must resolve the root cause of this
conflict instead of resolving the conflict itself. We should tackle the main
cause, which is the [Israeli] occupation of Palestine.
The occupation of Palestine has been a source of misery for the Palestinians,
Lebanese, Syrian and for the rest of the people in the region. [We] are supposed
to stand by the Palestinians, so they can succeeded in liberating their land. Of
course, the current regional transformations are important and benefit [the
Palestinians]. We must take advantage of this to further help the Palestinian
cause.
With respect to the current developments in Egypt, the mobilization taking place
is an indicator that Egypt has entered a new phase. If [toppled President] Hosni
Mubarak were still in power, the Egyptian government would have acted
differently [vis-a-vis Israel]. Egypt would not have warned the Israelis against
their attacks on Gaza, like it is doing now. [The recent protests near the
Israeli Embassy in Egypt] are not a radical change, but a shift. The Egyptian
position [vis-a-vis Israel] is beginning to gradually change.
Regarding Libya, it is undeniable that [strongman] Moammar Qaddafi’s regime has
committed a lot of crimes and bears responsibility for the [1978] disappearance
of [Lebanese Shia Cleric] Imam Moussa as-Sadr. The Imam was detained [in Libya]
and this was a hostile act against the Lebanese and Palestinian resistance.
Today, we look forward to seeing the Libyan rebels limit [Qaddafi’s] crimes. We
also hope that the Imam [Moussa as-Sadr] and his companions will return safely
to Lebanon. The Libyan people are facing responsibilities, but the [most
important one] is to acquire and safeguard their sovereignty and independence in
the face of the assault [that will be conducted] by the West.
I move to the current Syrian developments. I will tackle two issues. The first
is the Syrian government and army’s commitment to Arab principles and causes,
despite western pressure. All the pressure did not make Syria give up. Had Syria
renounced its principles and yielded to the West, the entire political equation
in the area would have been subjected to [western concessions]. Syria played a
role in confronting the US and the West’s [greed] in the Middle East. Syria and
its [Baath ruling] regime have stood behind and supported the resistant forces
of Lebanon and Palestine [in their struggle against Israel]. This land, [South
Lebanon], would not have been liberated [from Israel] in 2000 if it were not for
Syria’s support. This land has fought and triumphed thanks to Syria’s support.
Thanks to this, the Resistance was successful [in liberating South Lebanon].
On the other hand, everyone supports the implementation of reforms in Syria so
as to have progress and growth in the country. All those who care about the
country should foster its national unity and pave the way for dialogue We want a
strong Syria. All those who claim they care about Syria, its people and its
future, should make efforts to calm things down in Syria so the situation can be
resolved peacefully. Do those who are calling on NATO forces to militarily
intervene in Syria, really care about [the country]? Do they really care if they
are inciting civil war in Syria?
Syria preserved its unity because it is governed by national principles. There
are some who want Syria divided to fulfill their ‘New Middle East’ project. Any
negative developments in Syria will bring forth harmful repercussions on the
entire [Middle Eastern] region. As [Syrian] President [Bashar] al-Assad said a
few days ago, the US and the West want Syria to compromise and do not care about
reforms. We must all stand behind Syria so that it does not make concessions,
and [support it], so it is able to steadily achieve reforms. Preserving
[Syria’s] national unity is a catalyst for reform.
I will move on to discussing Lebanese issues. Let the world hear, Lebanon is no
longer the weakest link in the region and it will never go back to being so.
Lebanon is strong and it upholds its sovereignty. Despite global calls for the
naturalization of Palestinians, the Palestinian refugees refuse to be
naturalized; no one can forcefully naturalize [them]. If some Lebanese wanted to
conspire with the West to do so, we will not accept it. We will not accept any
solution that comes at Lebanon’s expense. Lebanon has become a problem and a
trap for Israel; [the latter] is scared of Lebanon.
Israel has always been greedy and has coveted Lebanon’s territory and resources.
But now, we have the ‘army, people and Resistance’ equation to [confront
Israel]. This is what Lebanon has turned into, [the ‘army, people and
Resistance’]. There are [Hezbollah opponents] who work abroad and have support
from inside Lebanon. [Hezbollah’s opponents] in Lebanon are collaborating with
the outside to harm this equation and the Resistance. They have always looked to
cause strife between the Resistance and the people, and between the army and the
Resistance. The blood of [slain Hezbollah official, Imad Mughniyeh,] has made us
more resilient and committed [to our cause].
Concerning the [UN-backed] Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), I tell you, as
the days pass, we discover that this court and the reasons behind its
establishment are politicized. We are counting on the public opinion and its
awareness to believe [us when we say] that the STL is a conspiracy [which
targets Hezbollah]. The STL and its decisions are worthless.
Concerning the Lebanese army, some are eyeing the army and trying to target it,
as well as cut its financial support. The Lebanese army remains the main
institution that guarantees stability in Lebanon. Efforts are being made to harm
it. When Lebanese parties [notably the western-backed March 14 coalition] talk
about Lebanese freedom and sovereignty, [their words] are empty. The leaked US
cables, WikiLeaks, proved it. They proved that [US Assistant Secretary of State
Jeffrey] Feltman was the real leader of the Cedar Revolution. All those in
Lebanon who are trying to incite the Resistance, the army or are kindling
sectarianism are Israeli agents.
The time will come when you will breathe [the air] of Palestine from inside the
Palestinian [territories] and not just from [South Lebanon]. This is our goal.
In the name of the resistant forces, the wounded people and the righteous ones I
tell you: This land will be given back to its people and this is God’s will…all
the believers in the world are getting ready to retrieve the land [from the
Israelis]. May peace and mercy be upon you all.”
The oil myth
Hussain Abdul-Hussain,/Now Lebanon/ August 26, 2011
Contrary to popular belief, American oil companies have not benefitted greatly
from US presence in Iraq. (AFP photo/Essam al-Sudani)
While the abundance of oil in the Middle East has undoubtedly shaped the
region’s history, with oil becoming a market commodity the importance of this
resource in deciding the policies of Western governments has declined. The myth
that oil dictates Western behavior in the region, however, lives on.
While many Arabs believe that controlling oil fields was the "actual" reason
behind America's war in Iraq, nothing indicates that the US has had any say over
oil resources in the country since the start of the occupation in 2003. America
and its oil companies have not received any preferential treatment from the
elected Iraqi government either, at least judging by the results of the several
rounds of bidding for oil development and production.
Iraq is the home of the world's third-largest oil reservoir, with 115 billion
barrels. Since the downfall of Saddam Hussein, Iraqi oil production has sat at
around two million barrels per day. From day one, production was metered by the
UN. Its crude is classified as “light sweet,” and can be easily transformed into
gasoline. Extracting oil in Iraq is also relatively inexpensive.
Baghdad has held three rounds of bidding and is now gearing up for a fourth.
During auction, Iraqi negotiators not only proved to be stalwarts, but were so
strict in their contracts that many oil companies, including US giants like
Exxon, saw little or no profit in certain auctions and withdrew their bids.
If the US occupation led to control of the Iraqi oil fields, either for free or
at discounted prices, US companies would certainly have fared much better in
winning contracts.
Iraq auctioned 20-year service contracts for its oilfields. British Shell and
Malaysian Petronas won control of the huge field of Majnoon, beating a rival
joint bid by French Total and Chinese CNPC after Shell-Petronas lowered their
fee per barrel to $1.39.
But CNPC, together with Total and Petronas, won the smaller Halfaya field.
America's Exxon Mobil, for its part, won a bid for West Qurna 1, charging a
$1.90 fee per barrel produced, while Russia's Lukoil – together with Norway's
Statoil – won West Qurna 2 for $1.15 per barrel.
Other national companies such as Italy's Eni and Angola's Sonangol were also in
the game, showing that in Iraq, oil contracts went to the best bidders, American
or not, and that oil prices are decided by the market.
Iraq is now preparing for a fourth round of licensing, this time for oil
exploration. Although international companies prefer production-sharing
contracts for exploration blocks, Iraqi oil officials said the deals would be
based on service contracts, like in development and production, which means flat
fees rather than shares in the resources.
Libya's Moammar Qaddafi, however, offered production-sharing deals instead of
flat fees. His deals proved to be more tempting than Iraq's.
Libya also has light sweet crude, with 50 billion barrels in reserves. After
making up with Washington, London and other Western capitals in 2004, sanctions
were removed, and Tripoli offered its oil fields for development in order to
increase production capacity.
Like in Iraq, the market decided oil prices in Libya, and companies had to bid
for contracts. Perhaps feeling in the mood to make nice with Washington, Qaddafi
allowed the awarding of contracts to tilt in America's favor.
In 2005 Libya auctioned 15 exploration permits. Three US companies—Occidental
Petroleum, Chevron Texaco and Amerada Hess—won 11.
In Libya, Qaddafi had already opened his doors to Western oil companies. From a
realpolitik perspective, NATO should have ensured Qaddafi's survival in order to
guarantee its shares in the Libyan bids. If NATO's helping depose Qaddafi had
motivations, oil was certainly not one of them.
In the Arab world, the myth that oil dictates Western behavior has further
warped the already flawed Arab understanding of the world and its politics.
**Hussain Abdul-Hussain is the Washington Bureau Chief of Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Rai
Post Qaddafi: Insurgency and Jihad
versus Democracy
Walid Phares, Ph.D./ 8/26/2011
By seizing most of Tripoli and fighting what's left of the pockets of resistance
of Qaddafi forces, Libyan rebels have now almost dislodged the old regime and
are expected to begin building their own government.
The most pressing question within the international community and in Washington
is about the immediate to medium-term future of the country. Will the
Transitional National Council swiftly install its bureaucracies in Tripoli and
across the country? Will Qaddafi's supporters accept the new rule or will they
become the new rebels? And most importantly, are the current rebels united in
their vision for a new Libya?
Libya's foreign minister says Qaddafi has exhausted all of his options after
rebels take over Tripoli compound.
The following are a few projections based on past statements, known behaviors
and geopolitical realities:
1. The Transitional National Council (TNC) Will Logically Move to the Capital
and Try to Assert Its Power Over Most Cities and Towns in Libya. The rebel
"operation" in Tripoli revealed that a number of officers serving in the Qaddafi
armed forces have betrayed their command and ordered surrender to the advancing
rebel forces.
This fact could lead to future revenge actions by Qaddafi loyalists, and thus a
cycle of violence may well erupt between the new regime and the supporters of
the defunct regime.
Hence the first challenge the TNC will have to face is the need to stabilize its
own security grip on the country and its institutions in the near future.
Even if the TNC forms a government, the new regime will be assaulted by a
Qaddafi insurgency, regardless of the dictator's fate. Strongholds such as Syrt
on the coast or Sebha in the southern desert will be to the new government what
the Sunni Triangle was to the post Saddam Hussein government in Iraq.
2. The TNC has a Plan, At Least According to Its Leaders. They will dispatch
bureaucrats to run the ministries and dispatch their forces to seize and protect
state institutions and oil installations.
The interim authority will try to show the world that it is a credible force
committed to the country's international commitments. They will continue to sell
oil at a decent price, at least for a while.
Europeans, particularly the French, will get their reward for supporting the
rebels.
But expect that Qaddafi loyalists, after four decades of undisputed reign over
Libya won't vanish easily. They will become the next "insurgents" and will try
to destabilize the new TNC government. With thousands of soldiers and security
elements on the run or in the hiding among their tribes, these Qaddafi remnants
will conduct revenge strikes for a period of time.
3. Libya's Citizens, After Years of Oppression, Torture, and Folly From Qaddafi,
Will Enjoy Wider Freedoms and Pluralism. They Will Also Have a Window of
Opportunity to Develop a Democracy.
The TNC’s statements have been consistent in promising a “pluralist democracy”
once Qaddafi is removed from power. Abdel Jalil, the head of the interim
authority, has been diligent in assuring that the rebels are bent on removing a
dictator so that the country can become a haven of freedom.
But the window of opportunity may not be wide open endlessly. For another
challenge to Libyans –aside from vengeful actions by Qaddafi supporters-- will
undoubtedly be the rise to power of Islamist militias within the next
government. And add to that the ripple effect from the penetration by jihadists
of Libya’s institutions and defense institutions.
The dominant assessment in Washington and Europe since the beginning of the
Libyan uprising has been that “we don’t know the rebels,” and thus can’t predict
their future moves.”
In fact, we do know who the rebels are and can somewhat anticipate their next
major moves: The Transitional National Council (TNC) was formed in Benghazi at
the onset of the upheaval by almost all the organized Qaddafi political
opposition forces. The TNC includes former diplomats, bureaucrats, military
officers from the old regime. It also includes politicians and leaders from
movements and groups from the political left, Marxists, Socialists, Arab
Nationalists, liberals and Islamists.
The TNC’s real composition can be viewed as secularist and Islamist, the latter
being the largest organized group -- read militia -- across the country. Tribal
affiliations are important in the build-up of the new government, but the
ideological divide will also be a determinant in projecting the future of the
country.
Over the past months, we’ve seen the chief mentor of the Muslim Brotherhood and
Al Jazeera ideologue, Sheikh Yusuf al Qardawi blessing the “rebels,”
particularly their Islamist forces.
Almost all interviews with local commanders on the ground, from inscriptions on
their vehicles to war chants, to the narrative of the militiamen, have been
unmistakably Islamist, and have had, in many cases, a jihadist, identification.
The minister of information of the TNC is a sophisticated Islamist intellectual
who sits on Al Jazeera's board of governors. -- Abdelhakim Belhaj, the military
commander of the rebels in Tripoli said "we will only follow what is consistent
with Sharia."
All indications are that the TNC has a dual ideological identity: secular and
Islamist. And we know all too well what the long term agenda of Islamists is:
establishment of an Islamist state -- an emirate on the way to a caliphate.
But the Libyan Islamists, as with their counterparts in Egypt and Libya, are
savvy and also understand political tactics. At first, they will walk the walk
of a “pluralist-democratic” agenda under the TNC, until the Qaddafi remnants are
totally crushed and until ministries and educational and military institutions
are secured by their militants.
Oil will flow to the West at a good price to keep foreign pressures at bay. But
when the power is solidly in the hands of the new government and the Islamists
are well-entrenched in it, the push against the secularists will begin, a
national election would be won by the most organized forces, and the building
blocks of an Islamist Libya will rise.
As in Egypt and Tunisia, the Obama administration and European governments stood
with the rebels in the uprising against the tyrant of Libya. It was the right
thing to do. But as in the previous revolutions we've seen in this region, the
West abandoned the secularists, liberals and minorities and partnered with the
Islamists. If this repeats itself in Libya, we would have replaced one devil --
the traditional authoritarians -- with a new devil: the Islamist authoritarians.
Dr Walid Phares is a senior fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of
Democracies (FDD) in Washington, D.C., and director of the Future Terrorism
Project of the FDD. He is a visiting fellow with the European Foundation for
Democracy in Brussels. His most recent book is Future Jihad: Terrorist
Strategies against the West.
Dr Phares holds degrees in law and political science from Saint Joseph
University and the Lebanese University in Beirut, a Masters in international law
from the Universite de Lyons in France and a Ph.D. in international relations
and strategic studies from the University of Miami.
He has taught and lectured at numerous universities worldwide, practiced law in
Beirut, and served as publisher of Sawt el-Mashreq and Mashrek International. He
has taught Middle East political issues, ethnic and religious conflict, and
comparative politics at Florida Atlantic University until 2006.
Going…
Going… Gone? Not Quite Yet!
The Assad Regime on the Middle East Geopolitical Chessboard
by Elie Al-Chaer*
August 25, 2011
Bashar, the Loyal Son
For the last decade or so, western analysts puzzled over the portrayal of the
Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, trying to understand his beliefs on important
issues and how much real power he exercised within a regime that his father
built and nurtured for over 30 years. The lack of consensus on whether he was “a
neophyte”, “a closet reformer” or “a loyal son” exacerbated the lack of
consensus on the appropriate course for policy towards Syria. This debate began
in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, almost a year into Assad’s first
term, intensified after the American occupation of Iraq and became most notable
following the Hariri assassination in Lebanon in 2005. More than 10 years into
his reign, Bashar Al-Assad can no longer be seen as a neophyte and has done very
little to advance reform and democracy in Syria. The “loyal son” has proven to
be a force for continuity and stasis (if not retrogression) in Syrian domestic
and foreign policy. A thoroughgoing product of the system his father built up,
whose principal goal is to protect the core constituencies of the Assad regime
and preserve the main elements of his father’s foreign policy. Today, as the
echoes of the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen reverberate across
the Middle East, the voices of Syrian dissidents - silenced for over 40 years by
the Assad Regime - are given an audience and used as the backdrop of an
international coalition to topple young Bashar. The brittle system in Damascus
is in a fight to keep intact its old ways of control. This makes him very much
part of the “problem” in Syria rather than a prospective part of the solution.
The Shift in US Policy
Over the past few weeks, we have seen US President Barack Obama and Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton, along with a number of European leaders call on President
Bashar Al-Assad to “step down” and “go out of the way”. This represents quite a
shift, at least in US policy, towards the Assad regime and an end to the
conditional engagement1 adopted by the previous administration; an engagement
that has failed to yield the desired results. Under Bashar’s watch, Syria
continued to be on the State Department's list of states that sponsor terrorism,
it is said to pursue weapons of mass destruction in the shape of chemical and
possibly nuclear weapons and has proven time and again that democracy is not on
its regime’s menu. Most importantly Bashar’s regime - unlike his father’s - has
openly aligned itself with the Iranian camp in the Middle East region, not just
rhetorically but also on the ground in Iraq and Lebanon. Iran’s policy since the
Islamic Revolution has been persistently aimed at building a regional coalition
resistant to US influence and opposed to American interests. This Iranian-led
anti-American camp includes today many Iraqi and Bahraini Shi’a-Muslim groups on
the basis of sectarian affinity, the Shi’a-Muslim Hezbollah party-cum-militia as
a strategic arm in Lebanon and the Alawite (Shi’a sect) Assad’s regime as a
willing ally in Syria. Assad’s strategic alliance with Iran divested him of the
Saudi “laissez faire” afforded his dad for more than thirty years and with it
the approval of the pro-American camp in the region. Gone is the steady hand of
the old juggler, Hafez Al-Assad. Gone, too, is the tortured US diplomacy that
had courted Damascus and catered to its sense of importance as a big player in
the Fertile Crescent. With his regime increasingly isolated and facing
unprecedented pressure from within and on the outside, there is little Bashar
can do to weather the storm.
Persian Chessboards and Saudi Bishops
The unrest in Syria today, although similar in appearance to the popular
uprisings in other Arab countries, carries within it the imprint of a regional
conflict between the Iranian-led anti-American camp and a Saudi-led pro-American
one. The ethnic and sectarian dimensions of this conflict go back several
centuries but at heart today is the control of the Middle East geopolitical
space. America's primary interest in the Middle East is to help ensure that no
other power comes to control this geopolitical space and that the global
community has unhindered financial and economic access to it. As Zbigniew
Brzezinski2 puts it in his book The Grand Chessboard, "that puts a premium on
maneuver and manipulation in order to prevent the emergence of a hostile
coalition that could eventually seek to challenge America's primacy." This
“hostile coalition” is led today by Iran with Syria’s Assad as its primary
regional partner and Lebanon’s Hezbollah as its prominent military arm.
Following the Iraq War and banking on the suffering of Iraqi Shi’as under
Saddam’s regime and their justified mistrust of US policy, Iran extended its
hegemony over Iraq politics in a direct affront to US military presence there.
The US and its allies responded on many fronts; in addition to direct pressure
and sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, they passed UN Security Council
resolution 1559 in 2004, which mandated among other things the disarmament of
all militias in Lebanon - meaning primarily Hezbollah - and the withdrawal of
all foreign troops from Lebanese territories - meaning the Syrian army, which
had occupied Lebanon for close to thirty years.
This resolution effectively reactivated Lebanon’s front on the Middle East
“chessboard” where pro- and anti- American camps play their game. The
assassination of Rafiq Hariri - Saudi tycoon and former prime minister of
Lebanon - in 2005 was seen by many as a response to UNSC 1559 and a hit by Iran
- via Syria - on Saudi Arabia’s number one man in Lebanon. If Hezbollah
represents a “Rook” for Iran in this game of chess, Rafiq Hariri represented the
“Wazir” (Queen in Arabian chess) for Saudi Arabia. His removal could have very
well precipitated a checkmate on American interests in Lebanon and significantly
broadened Iranian influence in the region, something that did not happen
immediately.
The chess game that unfolded in Lebanon with the Hariri assassination continued
to be played over the coming years through a back and forth between the two
camps that manifested in a number of key events: the Cedar Revolution,
assassination of Lebanese public figures, withdrawal of Syrian troops from
Lebanon, UNSC 1595 establishing an international Special Tribunal for Lebanon,
Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006, Nahr El-Bared War in 2007, the May 7th conflict in
2008, the Doha accord, appointment of a president, parliamentary elections, etc.
Through it all, Syria has consistently been a key player on the anti-American
side and Lebanon’s political crisis has been spiraling out of control until the
collapse of the Lebanese cabinet headed by PM Saad Hariri (Rafiq Hariri’s son)
in January 2011. The ousting of Saad Hariri from government, through a
constitutional maneuver staged by the pro-Syrian camp in Lebanon, took place
while Hariri was meeting with Obama at the White House. If Rafiq Hariri was the
Saudi “Wazir” on the chessboard, his son Saad was one of its “Bishops”. His
removal from power dealt a major blow to the pro-American camp and necessitated
a firm response against the Iranian “Vazīr” (Queen in Persian Chess) itself on
the board: Bashar Al-Assad.
Few weeks after the government of Saad Hariri gave way in Lebanon to a
Hezbollah-led coalition, a Shiite uprising - supported by Iran and Hezbollah -
came to light in the Kingdom of Bahrain (February 14, 2011). In the span of one
month, the Iranian coalition managed to launch attacks on two fronts against
pro-American forces and was gearing to take control. Retaliation was swift on
both fronts. On March 14, troops from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
entered Bahrain with the stated purpose of protecting essential facilities
including oil and gas installations and financial institutions. The maneuver was
carried out under the aegis of the Gulf Cooperation Council. On March 15, less
than two months after Hariri’s fall and one month after the attempt in Bahrain,
the Syrian “street” was ablaze demanding the fall of the dictator!
The Pitfalls if Assad Falls
The Assad dynasty has controlled Syria for more than forty years, “raising”
generations of loyalists to a regime that advocated secularism but practiced, in
a strict sense, “Assadism”. The exile, imprisonment, torture and assassination
of dissidents and opposition figures over the Assad years in power left Syria
with very few independent leaders who have any significant presence on the
ground or influence amongst the people and who can assume the country’s charge
in a post-Assad era. The massacres carried against the Muslim Brotherhood in
Hama in 1982 - gone unnoticed by Arab and International communities - instilled
in young Syrians fear of the Assad regime and a sense of awe at its might and
invincibility. At the same time, it galvanized the hate of many Sunni Muslims,
namely radicals, towards Assad and strengthened their resolve to exact revenge
from his regime at the right time. This situation, compounded with Syria’s
diverse ethnic and sectarian mix, makes a smooth transition of power an unlikely
scenario.
In fact, ethnic and sectarian minority groups in Syria make up more than 30% of
the population (which include Alawites, Shi’a, Druze, Kurds, Christians and
Jews); despite their muted hopes and aspirations for change and democracy, they
would rather hold-on to the devil they know than face possibly a fate similar to
that of the Iraqis after Saddam. Iraq is viewed by many observers today as a
gangland rather than a nation in order. Minorities - namely Christians - are
brutally maimed, their women raped and children kidnapped and killed, ultimately
forcing them to seek refuge outside their homeland. The fear of a similar fate
in Syria if Assad is forced out of power is keeping minority groups by his side.
The slogans shouted by the demonstrators help, in many cases, to inflame those
fears. Therefore, minority participation in the current uprisings is abysmal not
to say absent. Admittedly, it is difficult - especially on the outside - to get
an objective assessment of the size and make-up of the demonstrations in Syria,
but most of them seem to follow Friday prayers in a limited number of Syrian
towns. Furthermore, Damascus and Aleppo - the two largest Syrian cities with
Sunni majorities - have seen very little movement on the ground, if any. For a
country of more than 22 Million citizens, the numbers on the streets are
nominal. For a society with a complex demographic mosaic, which prides itself in
its historic ethnic, cultural and religious diversity and its so-called
“secular” government, the demonstrators do not seem to represent a true
cross-section of the population, but rather disgruntled groups of radicals who
may have a feud with Assad’s father and with an agenda that remains ambiguous at
best. Besides, more than five months since the beginning of the unrest, the
Syrian armed forces seem to be holding together with Assad. No defections to
speak of, certainly nothing like the world saw in Egypt, Yemen or Libya.
With the internal conditions unripe yet for change, and given the tremendous
Iranian interest in the survival of Assad’s regime, any attempt at ousting him
by force could spell a civil war in Syria and ultimately breaking-up the
country. Furthermore, the unrest may not remain limited only to Syria.
Assad’s Strategic Choices
At present, it would seem that two important pieces of the Iranian coalition are
forked on the chessboard: Hezbollah, implicated in the Hariri assassination by
the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, and the Assad regime in a fight for its
survival. Iran’s options are limited: letting go of Hezbollah is out of question
for ideological and strategic reasons; on the other hand, letting go of Assad
strips it of a strong ally and disrupts Hezbollah’s arms supply route. Both
parties are vital to the survival of the anti-American coalition in the region.
That being the case, it would be safe to assume that any outside military
intervention against Assad will unavoidably clash with massive resistance on
several fronts. Inside Syria, Assad can always count on a cache of armed
loyalists whose interests are intertwined with those of the regime. Hezbollah
could mobilize the “resistance” from military training camps throughout the
country. This move may substantially weaken the “Party of God” in neighboring
Lebanon, but rescuing the Assad regime is a primary strategic goal. Assad’s
defense strategy may as well stretch beyond Syria’s borders. This could spell
trouble for Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Bahrain, for the pro-American camp in
Lebanon, for Israel on the Lebanese and Syrian borders, for Egypt in Sinai and
for the United States in Iraq. In fact, the Iraqi insurgency is known to often
wax and wane with the “mood” of the Syrian-American entente. Egypt, right before
the fall of Mubarak, arrested a number of Hezbollah cells operating on the
border with Gaza. Similar cells may be ready in Bahrain and other Arab
countries. Iran and Venezuela will make sure Assad has enough liquidity to
survive and he can always rely on Russia and China to protect him at the UNSC.
At present, a smooth change of guard in Syria seems unlikely. It is more likely
that Assad may stay in power, possibly for years. The situation could remain in
flux for a long time and the unrest could progress into chaos and possibly a
civil war. On the other hand, Assad’s regime could very well weather the storm à
la Saddam after Desert Storm. He may even reinvent his policies and seek
international acceptance like Gadhafi did in 2007. That may cease to be the case
if a handful of senior army officers were to take charge of Syria on a
transitional basis, appease minorities’ fears and institute necessary reforms
that take into account Syria’s diverse society, rich history, its aspirations
for a secular democratic government and its rightful place in the world. That
would mean for starter a Syria oblivious to Iranian and Saudi influences and
focused on the rebuilding of its institutions. The coming few months will tell.