LCCC
ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِAugust
16/2011
Bible Quotation for today.
Luke 01/46-55/Mary said, “My soul
magnifies the Lord. My spirit has rejoiced in God my Savior, for he
has looked at the humble state of his handmaid. For behold, from now on,
all generations will call me blessed. For he who is mighty has done great
things for me. Holy is his name. His mercy is for generations of generations on
those who fear him. He has shown strength with his arm. He has scattered
the proud in the imagination of their hearts. He has put down princes from
their thrones. And has exalted the lowly. He has filled the hungry with
good things. He has sent the rich away empty. He has given help to Israel,
his servant, that he might remember mercy,
As he spoke to our fathers,
Latest
analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases
from
miscellaneous
sources
Iran looking beyond Al-Assad/By
Tariq Alhomayed/August
15/11
The end of a cowardly
Regime/By
Hussein Shobokshi/August
15/11
The Lessons of the Second Lebanon
War
Five years later/August 15/11
Michael Aoun, The maestro of
envy/By: Michael Young/August 15/11
Zero intolerance/Now
Lebanon/August
15/11
Latest News
Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for August 15/11
Report: STL Probing Evidence
Leading to Iran
Mubarak Back in Court for Trial
Syria tanks enter Homs while
fighting Palestinians in Latakia
Heavy Gunfire as Syria Troops,
Tanks Enter Homs
Saudi, Turkish leaders meet
Turkey suggests Assad lead
transition, paper reports
Hezbollah's Naiem Qassem Advises
Opposition Not to Waste its Time
Hezbollah, Amal say dialogue only
way to solve problems
Lebanon: Officials Say Prison Break
Probe Ongoing, Accomplices Will be Punished
Lebanon: Week of Confrontation Over
Electricity as Miqati, Bassil Clash
Druze Leader Jumblat: Proportional
Representation in Limbo
Progressive Socialist Party leader
MP Walid Jumblatt left on Monday for Egypt
Lebanese pro Syrian President
Suleiman to Monaco on Thursday Amid Continued Efforts to Lay Dialogue Foundation
Presence of Palestinian arms in
Lebanon is “valueless,” says Palestinian President
Palestinian President Abbas in
Beirut Tuesday to Seek ‘Effective’ Role in Palestinian U.N. Bid
Lebanon's General Prosecutor Saeed
Mirza Mirza Confirms Release of Alleged Arms Smugglers to Syria
Kataeb Party bloc MP Fadi al-Haber:
National dialogue calls to confirm Hezbollah controls the state
U.N. documents contradict Irish
Army over 1989 UNIFIL deaths: report
Israel approves 227 new homes in
West Bank settlement of Ariel
Hamas chief, Israeli negotiator in
Cairo for talks on Shalit deal
Syria calls on UN to thwart
Israel's 'separation fence' on Golan Heights
Iran looking beyond
Al-Assad
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
Previously I wrote here, citing an informed official, stating that Iran is
counting on Iraq as an alternative to Syria, in the case of Bashar al-Assad's
regime collapsing. Today, new information indicates that Iran is also
maneuvering with the Houthis; supporting the notion that Tehran has become
convinced that there is no hope for its Baathist ally in Damascus.
Information suggests that the Houthis, with the help of Tehran, are arranging
their ranks today in preparation for the post-Ali Abdullah Saleh phase. Sources
say that the Houthis, in significant numbers, are carrying out extensive
military exercises, firing rockets, and conducting military operations. All of
this is being carried out so that the Houthis are ready to engage Saudi Arabia
in the coming phase.
Here some might say: What does this have to do with Iran, Syria and Iraq? The
answer is clear. Tehran feels that it received a violent blow with the
intervention of the Gulf Peninsula Shield forces in Bahrain, which thwarted
Iran's plan to contain Saudi Arabia through its eastern border. Iran also feels
threatened today by a genuine danger in Lebanon, and particularly in the event
of the fall of al-Assad. [Should this happen], the sectarian belt - which Iran
has imposed on the region through the Iran-Syria-Lebanon axis, and more recently
through Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein, a scenario that the Jordanian
monarch [King Abdullah II] warned of on the day he spoke of the danger of the
Shiite crescent - will be torn apart.
Today, after the al-Assad regime has been exposed to an unprecedented blow
through the Syrian popular uprising, Iran is afraid that its affiliated groups
in our region will become surrounded from the Syrian side, after [the fall of]
al-Assad. Here the Lebanese situation comes to mind, in the form of Hezbollah,
not to mention the painful blow dealt to Tehran in Bahrain, leading Iran to feel
that Saudi Arabia is in a state of diplomatic awakening today, in order to be
liberated from the surrounding constraints threatening its national security,
and to address the Iranian expansion in the region. Therefore, Iran today is
trying to maneuver in areas of geographical proximity to Saudi Arabia, searching
for suitable locations to foster agents of Tehran.
Hence the importance of Iraq, where all recent indications coming from there
point to an increase in Iranian activity in Iraqi areas, not only through al-Maliki's
government, but through Shiite militia loyal to Tehran, in Baghdad and other
areas.
As for Yemen, and in the absence of a clear vision about whether President Saleh
intends to step down, when, how, and who will replace him, and how the new Yemen
will be formed, the political situation there today is an opportunity for Tehran
to groom its Houthi allies in Yemen, preparing them for the days to come. Iran
seeks to strengthen the position of the Houthis in the forthcoming political
process in Yemen, as well as strengthening their military positions on the
southern Saudi border.
What Tehran is doing today, in Iraq and Yemen, means that Iran is becoming more
and more convinced that Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria is coming to an end,
and it also means that Iran is preparing to re-engage with Saudi Arabia, by way
of Yemen and Iraq, along the lines of a game of chess. Will Tehran succeed in
its plan, or will those targeted realize the gravity of the matter? This is the
question.
Syria tanks enter Homs while fighting Palestinians in Latakia
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 15, 2011, Encouraged by the 15-day leeway
granted him by the US President Barak Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip
Erdogan, Bashar Assad Monday, Aug. 15, sent his tanks backed by mechanized
infantry into Homs, a town of 1.5 million inhabitants. Witnesses report heavy
shelling and clouds of smoke. Homs is Syria's third largest town and the biggest
the Syrian military has assaulted in the course of the five-month uprising
against the Assad regime.
While Obama and Edrogan presented the extra time they granted Assad as his last
chance to implement reforms, the Syrian ruler is making use of it to crack down
harder and grind the opposition to dust. After that, the Assads will reign
supreme and there will be no one left to fight for reforms.
Sunday, Aug. 14, debkafile reported on Palestinian armed resistance to Syrian
tank incursions in the coastal town of Latakia.
For the first time in the five-month anti-Assad uprising, Syrian forces clashed
with dissident Palestinians Sunday, Aug. 14, in the al-Raml a-Filistini district
of Syria's biggest port Latakia. As they moved toward the town center, the two
Syrian tank divisions and armored infantry were challenged by Palestinians
firing heavy machine guns, anti-tank RPGs and roadside bombs. Nineteen of the 24
dead Sunday were Palestinians.
debkafile's military sources affirm that contrary to earlier reports, the Syrian
missile ships cruising offshore took no part in the attack on Latakia. Their
function is to blockade the port against arms smuggling. Nevertheless the
weapons used by Palestinians fighting in Latakia Sunday came from Lebanon aboard
smugglers' boats. There are almost daily incidents of Syrian ships firing on
suspect vessels.
NATO headquarters in Brussels and the Turkish high command are meanwhile drawing
up plans for their first military step in Syria, which is to arm the rebels with
weapons for combating the tanks and helicopters spearheading the Assad regime's
crackdown on dissent. Instead of repeating the Libyan model of air strikes, NATO
strategists are thinking more in terms of pouring large quantities of anti-tank
and anti-air rockets, mortars and heavy machine guns into the protest centers
for beating back the government armored forces.
Since the Syrian air force would certainly shoot down air transports making the
drops, the tendency is to get the weapons to their destination overland, namely
through Turkey and under Turkish army protection by either of two routes: The
Turkish plan drafted some months ago for establishing buffer zones inside the
Syrian border, is one. The refugees from the battle zone would be given
sanctuary there instead of crossing into Turkey and the protected enclaves would
also serve as weapons distribution depots.
Alternatively, the arms would be trucked into Syria under Turkish military guard
and transferred to rebel leaders at pre-arranged rendezvous.
NATO and Turkish military sources have declined to indicate when, how and by
what means, the Syrian rebels, civilians with no experience in firearms, will
receive the weapons.
debkafile's military sources disclose that for the past two weeks, at least,
Syrian protest leaders and army deserters have been training in the use of the
new weapons with Turkish military officers at makeshift installations in Turkish
bases near the Syrian border.
Also discussed in Brussels and Ankara, our sources report, is a campaign to
enlist thousands of Muslim volunteers in Middle East countries and the Muslim
world to fight alongside the Syrian rebels. The Turkish army would house these
volunteers, train them and secure their passage into Syria.
These NATO plans were the underlying script for US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton's call on unnamed nations Friday, August 12 to stop sending arms to
Syria.
Our sources report she was referring to Russia which has stepped up its
shipments of ammunition and tank spares in the last two weeks.
All the tanks the Syrian army is using to crush protest are made in Russia.
Military sources in Washington Brussels would like to put a mechanism in place
for counter-balancing the Syrian army's hardware deliveries from Russia or Iran
by Western supplies to the opponents of the Assad regime, turning the asymmetric
contest into an arms race.
Report: STL Probing Evidence Leading to Iran
Naharnet /The Special Tribunal for Lebanon probing the assassination of ex-Prime
Minister Rafik Hariri is investigating Iran’s possible involvement in the Feb.
2005 bombing that killed Hariri and 22 others, the German Der Spiegel magazine
reported on Monday. The report said that there is evidence that link Iran with
the murder of Hariri.
The four men named in the indictment issued by the STL are members of Hizbullah
and the tribunal is “following evidence that lead to Iran.”
The magazine said that the four suspects traveled to Iran in 2004 and during
their stay, they went through military training in “Khomeini’s training camp”
near the city of Qom.
It added: “The training supervisors built sets similar to the crime scene” of
Hariri’s murder. Der Spiegel said that “al-Quds brigades” that is considered the
revolutionary guards right hand, supervised the entire operation. “Syrian
intelligence officials also participated” in the training, the magazine
reported.
The STL’s president, Judge Antonio Cassese, on Thursday urged the four wanted in
the case to appear before the court.
He made the appeal in an open letter two days after he was told by Lebanese
authorities that none of the four men identified by the tribunal as suspects has
been arrested.
The Hague-based tribunal's head said he was studying Lebanon's report, with the
next possible step to advertise the indictment, or part of it, in Lebanese
media.
Hizbullah’s leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has ruled out the arrest of the four
suspects, hinting that the STL was heading for a trial in absentia.
Hezbollah, Amal say dialogue only way to solve problems
August 15, 2011 /The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Hezbollah and the Amal Movement said Monday that dialogue is the only
way to solve problems among Lebanese. “The only way for the Lebanese to solve
their problems is dialogue,” said a joint statement issued after a meeting of
local Hezbollah and Amal Movement in the southern town of Nabatieh. “Those who
bet on regional or other changes and build strategies based on rejecting
dialogue, crippling [the government] and heightening the crisis are the ones who
threaten Lebanon’s stability,” the statement said.Hezbollah and Amal stressed
the need to adhere to the “army, resistance, people formula in the face of
Israel and its ambitions in both our land and water.”On the unrest in Syria, the
statement also underlined the need to “stand by both the Syrian people and the
leadership.”
Qassem Advises Opposition Not to Waste its Time
Naharnet /Hizbullah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem has advised some Lebanese
parties to put Lebanon’s interest before any other interest and work to solve
the daily problems of the people rather than betting on the Shiite party’s
downfall. In an interview with As Safir daily published Monday, Qassem said:
“Lebanon’s interest should be put before other personal interests and before the
logic of farms and different foreign guardianships.” Asked if he thought that
Israel would launch a new war on Lebanon, the Hizbullah deputy chief told the
newspaper that the Jewish state is marred by problems on living conditions and
economic hardships. Last week, 250,000 people flooded into Israel's main cities
to demand economic reforms to ease the cost of living and income disparity.
“That’s why we rule out any Israeli adventure against Lebanon,” Qassem said.
He stressed that the resistance was on the right track no matter how much
Lebanon witnessed clashes among different political parties and no matter how
critical the situation in the Arab world became.“We always stress (Hizbullah’s)
readiness because it is not linked to negative or positive political
developments,” he told his interviewer.
Qassem was adamant that even the developments in Syria will not affect Lebanon,
which according to him is characterized by the bond between the army, the people
and the resistance.
He advised “those who are betting that the changes in Syria will affect the
resistance not to waste their time or wrongly mobilize their supporters.”
He said in reference to the March 14-led opposition that it should contribute to
finding solutions to problems which fall in the interests of both Lebanon and
Syria.
When asked about President Michel Suleiman’s invitation for national dialogue,
Qassem said: “We support the dialogue to discuss the national defense strategy
and we reject any preconditions and changes.”March 14 is conditioning its
participation in the all-party talks on finding a solution to Hizbullah’s
“illegitimate arms.”
“Lebanon has a single enemy which is Israel and we should discuss the defense
strategy to protect Lebanon in the appropriate way. Full stop,” he said.
Raad: We'll Keep Our Guns Pointed at Israeli Enemy
Naharnet /MP Mohammed Raad, head of Hizbullah’s Loyalty to Resistance
parliamentary bloc, has stressed that “the resistance’s guns will remain pointed
at the Israeli enemy, no matter how much we suffer harm domestically.” “We will
only point our guns at the Israeli enemy, which is the enemy of the nation and
humanity,” Raad vowed during an Iftar banquet in the South.
“This Israeli enemy, which we defeated in 2006, should not be given a chance
neither now nor in the future to wage an aggression against Lebanon another
time, and the enemy must know that the era of its wars against Lebanon is over,”
Raad added. “Today, war is not measured by the number of its days anymore, it
would rather be a war that would decide the fate of the region and the Israeli
enemy realizes this,” the MP concluded.
General Prosecutor
Saeed Mirza Mirza Confirms Release of Alleged Arms Smugglers to Syria
Naharnet /General Prosecutor Saeed Mirza confirmed on Monday that the two
suspects accused of smuggling weapons from Lebanon to Syria through Beirut
Marina were released, As Safir newspaper reported. Mirza told the daily that
“interrogations with them by the army intelligence and the military prosecutor
general didn’t prove the allegations.”
The military prosecutor general charged two weeks ago two Lebanese men with
allegedly smuggling weapons from the Beirut Marina to Syria.Mirza noted that
there’s no such case known as “weapons smuggling from Beirut Marina.”“Even the
army intelligence has no such thing,” he added. As Safir reported on Friday that
the suspects have been directed to the military court, and then were transferred
to al-Qobbeh prison in Tripoli. Lebanon's largest company real estate developer,
Solidere, issued a statement after the allegations of smuggling arms saying “the
Lebanese security authorities are the only sides entitled with the preservation
of security, inspection and monitoring at the Beirut Marina.”The company, which
was founded by former Premier Rafik Hariri in 1994 to rebuild downtown Beirut,
denied its knowledge or link to any operation of arms smuggling from the
facility.
Week of Confrontation Over Electricity as Miqati, Bassil
Clash
Naharnet /The government faces the biggest test ever of bridging the gap among
its different members this week after a dispute erupted over a draft law aimed
at granting Energy Minister Jebran Bassil $1.2 billion to build plants to
produce 700 Megawatts of electricity. The cabinet meets at President Michel
Suleiman’s summer residence in Beiteddine on Thursday amid threats by MP Michel
Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement to withdraw its ministers from the government
over accusations that Premier Najib Miqati contributed to blocking the draft law
proposed by Aoun in parliament. Al-Liwaa daily quoted ministerial sources as
saying Monday that Miqati held talks with Bassil over the weekend. The results
of the meeting were described as “very negative.” Miqati is insisting on finding
a legal framework for spending the $1.2 billion fund that should be provided to
Bassil from the state budget.
During the last cabinet session, Bassil allegedly insisted on the government to
back his plan but he faced stiff opposition from several ministers for lack of
clarity on how he would spend that huge amount of money.
Jumblatt departs to Cairo
August 15, 2011 /Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt left on
Monday for Egypt, the National News Agency reported. The report added that
Future bloc leader MP Fouad Sinior returned to Beirut from a visit to Jeddah,
Saudi Arabia. -NOW Lebanon
Proportional Representation in Limbo
Naharnet /Lebanese politicians seem to be heading towards a new showdown over
the issue of proportional representation in the 2013 parliamentary elections
after Druze leader Walid Jumblat called for keeping the current electoral
system. During an Iftar held in the Shouf over the weekend, Jumblat said: “It
would be better to postpone discussions of proportionality and keep the status
quo to preserve diversity and plurality.” Ministerial sources told An Nahar
daily published Monday that Jumblat’s stance worsened the shaky situation that
the cabinet is witnessing. The Progressive Socialist Party leader’s rejection of
proportionality contradicts the stances of President Michel Suleiman and Prime
Minister Najib Miqati.
The cabinet is already showing signs of division among the different members
over a draft law that would allow Energy Minister Jebran Bassil to spend $1.2
billion dollars to build power plants that would generate 700 Megawatts of
electricity.
Officials Say Prison Break Probe Ongoing, Accomplices Will be Punished
Naharnet
Interior Minister Marwan Charbel said on Monday that the officers and security
members in Roumieh prison clearly neglected their duties when five inmates
escaped over the weekend.
“This is proved and doesn’t require any investigation,” Charbel told As Safir
newspaper. He stressed that the decision to punish all those responsible for the
break out of the inmates on Saturday has been taken. State Commissioner to the
Military Court Judge Saqr Saqr ordered the arrest of two officers and nine
guards on Sunday.
“Right now we’re probing whether or not any conspiracy occurred to facilitate
the prisoners’ escape,” Charbel said. The five inmates including Fatah al-Islam
terrorist network members escaped the prison by scaling down the building's
walls with bed sheets before mixing with visiting relatives and walking out of
the compound with them.
He noted that break out schemes of prisons happen; however, the newspaper quoted
him as saying: “This time the escape happened in a more comfortable way, which
raises many questions that should be answered through the investigation.” For
his part, Justice Minister Shakib Qortbawi told As Safir he is keen on
continuing the investigation until all the details are unveiled. “I have asked
the competent judicial authorities to continue their investigations until we
obtain a clear image of what has happened and determine those who are
responsible,” he stressed. The Minister noted that all theories are laid on the
table. Qortbawi told the daily the work is done on two levels; the first is
through taking immediate and decisive measures to avoid any future attempts to
escape from prison. While the second is through setting an integrated and
comprehensive plan which allows transferring the authority of Lebanese prisons
from the Interior Ministry to the Justice Ministry. He said that prisoners
should be treated as human beings who need rehabilitation and not just
punishment, which requires a specialized and trained staff. As Safir reported
that PM Najib Miqati will head a meeting on Tuesday at the Grand Serail with the
Interior and Justice Ministers to discuss ways to handle the prisons case.
Suleiman to Monaco on Thursday Amid Continued Efforts to Lay Dialogue Foundation
Naharnet /President Michel Suleiman is scheduled to travel to Monaco on Thursday
on a four-day official visit, al-Liwaa daily reported. The newspaper also said
that Suleiman held separate talks with Hizbullah MP Mohammed Raad and Lebanese
Forces leader Samir Geagea after the Iftar banquet he threw in honor of
politicians and clergymen last Thursday. The talks focused on the president’s
efforts to revive the national dialogue and adopt a calm political rhetoric, al-Liwaa
reported. Suleiman has been holding a series of consultative talks with leaders
from across the political spectrum to mull their viewpoints on his invitation
for the all-party talks and lay the appropriate groundwork for the dialogue
which he says has no alternative in confronting the ongoing challenges.
Hizbullah and its allies have stressed their support for the dialogue to discuss
the national defense strategy while the March 14-led opposition has
preconditioned its participation on discussing Hizbullah’s “illegitimate arms.”
Abbas in Beirut Tuesday to Seek ‘Effective’ Role in Palestinian U.N. Bid
Naharnet /Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who visits Beirut on Tuesday, is
expecting that the Palestinian bid for United Nations recognition will receive a
boost from Lebanon's taking over the presidency of the U.N. Security Council. In
an interview with al-Liwaa daily published Monday, Abbas hoped that Lebanon
would play an effective role in his bid for U.N. membership on September 20,
despite Israeli opposition. He said that he rejects the presence of Palestinian
arms in Lebanon “because they don’t have any value on Lebanese territories.”
“We reiterated that we will hand over the arms at the time that Lebanese
authorities see appropriate,” he told the newspaper. “We are responsible for
arms inside the camps but the weapons that are outside our responsibility,
belong to other organizations that carry them for personal reasons.” Abbas hoped
that some political parties in Lebanon would understand that giving rights to
Palestinian people does not mean naturalizing them. Diplomatic sources told An
Nahar daily that Abbas’ two day visit will be aimed at discussing with Lebanese
officials the issue of Palestinian camps, armed bases outside the shantytowns
and the improvement of the humanitarian conditions of refugees. During his
visit, Abbas will inaugurate the Palestinian embassy and hoist the flag after
the Lebanese cabinet officially recognized the state of Palestine and approved
to raise the level of diplomatic representation with it. The Palestinian
president is scheduled to meet with President Michel Suleiman, Speaker Nabih
Berri, Prime Minister Najib Miqati, Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour and Lebanon’s
envoy to the U.N. Nawwaf Salam. Abbas arrived Sunday in Bosnia, a non-permanent
member of the U.N. Security Council, seeking to win support for the Palestinian
bid for U.N. membership. His trip to Lebanon is also essential for his cause
given that Beirut assumes the presidency of the Security Council in September.
Presence of Palestinian arms in Lebanon is “valueless,” says Palestinian
President Mahmoud Abbas
August 15, 2011 /Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said in an interview
published Monday that he is against the presence of Palestinian arms in Lebanon,
in reference to Palestinian factions’ arms, adding that the presence “of such
arms in Lebanon” is valueless. Abbas told Al-Liwaa newspaper that he who says
otherwise, aims to use the Palestinian cause to serve certain aims. “We informed
the Lebanese governments [of this], and we say it again that we will hand over
the arms [whenever] the Lebanese [government] wants it.”
He also said that the Palestinians are only responsible for the presence of arms
in Palestinian refugee camps, adding that “arms that are not our responsibility
belong to other organizations that have arms for their own reasons.”-NOW Lebanon
Mubarak Back in Court for Trial
Naharnet /Former President Hosni Mubarak returned to a Cairo court Monday on a
stretcher for the next session of his trial on charges of corruption and
complicity in killing protesters during Egypt's uprising. The ailing, 83-year
old Mubarak arrived in a helicopter from a Cairo hospital where he has been held
since his first court appearance on Aug. 3. He was then wheeled into the metal
defendants' cage on a bed with his two sons, Gamal and Alaa, by his side. The
sons are facing only corruption charges. Mubarak appeared in a blue jumpsuit.
His two sons wore white prison uniforms. Before arriving in the dock, Mubarak's
older son Alaa covered a state TV camera to try to block it from filming his
father being taken out of the ambulance to go into the courtroom. Mubarak's
health had been subject of speculation for weeks before his trial, and many
suspected he might not even appear in court.
Brief scuffles between Mubarak supporters and opponents broke out outside the
trial venue at a Cairo police academy. Hundreds of Mubarak supporters protested
outside the courtroom over what they called "humiliation" of the former leader.
As Mubarak lay in the cage, lawyers for the relatives of the slain protesters
shouted and bickered before the judge arrived in the room, apparently over
seats. Mubarak is charged with complicity in the killing of protesters during
the uprising that ousted him and of corruption in accepting gifts to facilitate
a land deal. His former interior minister, who was in charge of police and other
security forces who violently confronted mostly peaceful protesters, is also a
defendant in the same case and accused of complicity in killing some of the
nearly 900 protesters who died.**Source Agence France Presse
Heavy Gunfire as Syria Troops, Tanks Enter Homs
Naharnet /Syrian troops backed by tanks clamped down Monday on the flashpoint
province of Homs, a day after gunboats joined an assault that killed more than
20 people in Latakia city, activists said. "The community of Hula is under siege
... The army is carrying out raids and arrests under the cover of heavy gunfire"
in Homs province, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. As the uprising
which has spread across Syria turned five months old on Monday, another rights
monitoring group said "a large number of tanks entered Hula this morning."
"Security agents encircled all the entrances to Hula and they started shooting
to terrify local residents. Then the army went in to make raids and arrests,"
said the Observatory.
It said pro-regime militiamen and security agents were deployed on all roads and
in villages around Hula to erase anti-government graffiti from the walls.
The operation came a day after gunboats joined the pounding of the port city of
Latakia that killed as many as 26 people, in the first attack from the sea since
Syria's anti-regime revolt erupted March 15, according to activists. President
Bashar Assad has appointed a new governor for Aleppo province in northern Syria,
the state news agency SANA announced on Monday. The decree followed the naming
of new governors for Homs and Hama in the center of the country as well as for
Daraa in the south, scene of the first major bloodshed of the uprising.
SANA also ran a denial that the navy had attacked Latakia, however, quoting its
correspondent in the Mediterranean city as saying security forces had battled
gunmen.
Activists said four more people were killed elsewhere on Sunday. The Syrian
Observatory said at least 23 people died and dozens more were wounded in Latakia,
while the National Organization for Human Rights in Syria (NOHRS) put the death
toll at 26.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory said the vessels opened up with heavy
machine guns.
"In unprecedented action... the Syrian regime used navy boats to shell innocent
civilians in the province of Latakia," the NOHRS said in a statement, backing up
the report.
It provided a list of 26 victims -- including two Palestinian men from the Ramel
refugee camp in southern Latakia -- and said one more person was killed in Homs
and another in Idlib, northwest Syria. A spokesman for the U.N. refugee agency
UNRWA, Chris Gunness, said reports from the Ramel camp spoke of "fire from tanks
which have encircled the area as well as fire from ships at sea." He called on
the Syrian authorities "to order their troops to exercise maximum restraint,"
and demanded "access for humanitarian workers to tend to the injured and dying."
SANA, quoting its Latakia correspondent, denied naval vessels had opened fire on
the city. "Law enforcement members are pursuing armed men who are using machine
guns, grenades and bombs in Ramel from rooftops and from behind barricades," it
said. The head of medical services in Latakia was quoted as saying that two
members of the security forces were killed and 41 others wounded "while chasing
armed men." On Saturday, the military killed at least two people and wounded 15,
also in Ramel, a nerve center of protests calling for the fall of Assad,
according to the Syrian Observatory. On Saturday, U.S. President Barack Obama,
Saudi King Abdullah and Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron called for an
"immediate" end to the Syrian government's deadly crackdown. The violence has
killed around 2,200 people, including some 400 members of the security forces,
according to rights activists. Syrian authorities have blamed the bloodshed on
armed gangs and Islamist militants. The U.N. Security Council is due to hold a
special meeting on Thursday to discuss human rights and the humanitarian
emergency in Syria.**Source Agence France Presse
Saudi, Turkish leaders meet
August 15, 2011 /King Abdullah and Turkish President Abdullah Gul, who have
urged reforms and an end to the bloodshed in Syria, met in the Saudi city of
Jeddah, state news agency SPA reported Monday. Saudi media said the meeting late
on Sunday homed in on "regional and international developments," without a
direct mention of the deadly crackdown on dissent in Syria. Both fellow Muslim
states have urged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to bring in swift reforms and
end the killings. The Gulf monarchy, a Sunni regional heavyweight which had
remained silent on the Syrian revolt which broke out in mid-March, earlier this
month recalled its ambassador from Damascus. Gul last week urged Assad to
implement reforms before it is too late, in a letter handed to the embattled
Syrian leader by Turkey's foreign minister. King Abdullah and US President
Barack Obama agreed in a telephone call on Saturday that "the Syrian regime's
brutal campaign of violence against the Syrian people must end immediately," the
White House said. -AFP/NOW Lebanon
Bashar al-Assad assigns new Aleppo governor
August 15, 2011 /Syrian President Bashar al-Assad issued a decree on Monday
nominating Mouwaffak Ibrahim Khallouf as new Aleppo governor, SANA news agency
reported.
-NOW Lebanon
Turkey suggests Assad
lead transition, paper reports
August 15, 2011 /Al-Jumhuriya newspaper reported on Monday that Turkey, on
behalf of the US and the Gulf countries, suggested to Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad to lead a transitory phase and form a government. The main duty of the
new government would be to oversee free elections. The suggestion also stated
that the Baath party would be allowed to take part in elections and Assad, his
family and sect would be give certain guarantees. However, the report did not
elaborate any further. The daily added that Turkey asked Syria to publicly
announce its acceptance of the suggestion, and in exchange, the Turks, in
cooperation with the US and the Gulf countries, will work on stopping the
protests. However, the daily added that there is information that the Syrian
regime’s initial answer was unclear, and that the Syrians did not find
themselves pressured into accepting the offer. Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad’s troops have cracked down on protests against almost five decades of
Baath Party rule which broke out mid-March, killing over 2,000 people and
triggering a torrent of international condemnation.
-NOW Lebanon
Zero intolerance
August 15, 2011
A bomb blast, a drink-fuelled shooting incident, a prison break, a body in a
burnt-out car and even a recaptured handbag; all in all it’s been a hectic few
days for Marwan Charbel, Lebanon’s Interior Minister, who appears to be doing
his best to let law and order drift away from his control.
First we had the bombing in Antelias on Thursday, which left two men dead in a
parking lot, apparently blown up by their own device. First reports suggested
that a judge may have been the target, but within hours Charbel appeared to have
solved the crime, declaring that the incident was nothing more than a personal
dispute over money between two car dealers. This theory has since been debunked,
but Charbel’s rush to apparently explain away the incident as good,
old-fashioned criminality instead of domestic terrorism will have done little
for his already shaky credibility.
Then there was the escape from Roumieh prison over the weekend, in which five
members of the Islamist group Fatah al-Islam made a bid for freedom. One, a
Mauritanian, has been recaptured, but one feels the other four will be harder to
apprehend. Again the rumor mill will be quick to point to the hand of Syria,
which was widely believed to have helped the group during its 2007 insurgency
near the northern city of Tripoli and which today may see no harm in throwing
what will be perceived as a gang of homicidal Sunni fundamentalists into the
community.
Other incidents have not helped. On Sunday there was an early morning shooting
at the home of Marada MP Sleiman Franjieh. It was written off as the work of
“drunk men” (but still merited a phone call from Prime Minister Najib Mikati),
while on the same day a charred body was found in the burnt-out remains of a car
left at the southern entrance to Beirut.
At a time when the potential fallout from events in Syria is making many
Lebanese nervous, the government must get a grip on security. The fundamental
problem lies in the fact that there is the (not unfair) perception that one of
this government’s key missions is to support a Syrian regime that is fighting
for its life. Any security incident, especially one as serious as Thursday’s
bombing, could be, and has been, interpreted as something far more serious than
a scuffle that went horribly wrong.
Already there are rumors that Hezbollah was involved in Thursday’s bombing, and
as long as the party has free rein to conduct what it likes to call “necessary
security operations,” then there will always be questions surrounding such
incidents and the state’s willingness to investigate them. Charbel’s swift
explanation, one on which he has since backtracked, has been questioned by
opposition MPs who suspect a cover-up. The state must conduct a thorough and
transparent investigation into the incident if the public is to be convinced
that the government is really in control. The weekend did end on a high note for
the embattled minister when it was revealed that his “convoy” intervened in a
purse-snatching incident in which a handbag was returned to its owner and the
suspect apprehended. Zero tolerance has to start somewhere.
Kataeb Party bloc MP Fadi al-Haber: National dialogue calls to confirm Hezbollah
controls the state
August 15, 2011 /Kataeb Party bloc MP Fadi al-Haber said on Monday that calls
for national dialogue “are more of an attempt to confirm that Hezbollah
[controls] the state.”
Haber told the Free Lebanon radio station that discussing the national-defense
strategy begins with handing over Hezbollah’s arms - which constitute a problem
- to the army.
“Supporting the Syrian regime is the priority of the cabinet that takes orders
from Hezbollah.” In June, a new cabinet dominated by the Hezbollah-led March 8
coalition and headed by Prime Minister Najib Mikati was formed and granted
parliament’s vote of confidence on July 7. President Michel Sleiman has been
calling for a resumption of national dialogue sessions, while figures of the
western-backed March 14 alliance have said they will only take part in talks if
they tackle the issue of Hezbollah’s arms. -NOW Lebanon
The maestro of envy
Michael Young, Now Lebanon
August 12, 2011
Though Michel Aoun has flip-flopped on serious issues such as his support for
Syria, which he fought a destructive war against, his supporters continue to
follow him without question. (AFP photo/ Charbel Nakhoul)
Among the more dismal spectacles in an already dismal political landscape is
that of Michel Aoun talking about Syria.
In the past two weeks, since the assault on Hama, Aoun has played down the
Syrian repression. This week he observed that Syria was calm and advised the
Syrian people to make their demands known through the ballot box—in a country
celebrated for its democratic standards. Aoun also invited President Bashar
al-Assad’s opponents to come to their senses and essentially embrace his rule.
It’s been clear for many years that as far back as his abortive “war of
liberation” against Syria, the general’s devouring fantasy was to become
Lebanon’s president. That plan failed time and again, despite Aoun’s acrobatics
and his alliance with Hezbollah against the majority that emerged from the 2005
elections. Today, Aoun pursues a lesser objective, namely to guarantee that his
children, with their spouses, inherit his political mantle. The boy of modest
means from Haret Hreik has made good, and aspires to bequeath a dynasty.
In that respect, Aoun is no worse, or better, than most other Lebanese political
players. However, only the foolish fail to see through his ambition, regarding
him as something of a reformer. Look closely at the laws the general is
advocating—even ask his allies in government what they think—and they will laugh
and quietly tell you that the initiatives Aoun has packaged as “reform” are
merely accelerated means of catching up for all those years when he was exiled
by Syria, incapable of securing the benefits accruing to most of his peers.
Perhaps that’s why the general’s comments on Syria are so grating. The supreme
egoist carried Lebanon into a ferocious conflict against the Syrian army in 1989
purportedly in defense of freedom—the same freedom sought by Syrians now—causing
massive numbers of casualties. Aoun’s subsequent decision to turn his guns on
the Lebanese Forces killed many more, accelerating the Christian exodus from
Lebanon. Despite the wreckage, the general’s followers still regard him as a
communal champion and have never held him to account.
Now, Aoun has not only reconciled with the Syrian regime—he is not only among
its most vocal, and willfully blind, partisans—on top of that he and many of his
supporters will blithely tell you that the Assad regime, which has done more
harm to Christian influence in Lebanon than just about anyone, is in reality a
protector of Christians.
Yet hold a snap parliamentary election in Mount Lebanon, the Christian
heartland, and Aoun would probably do as well as he did in 2009, if not better.
The man has been as acrobatic as Walid Jumblatt in his reversals—has transformed
contradiction, demagoguery and hypocrisy into powerful weapons—and all the while
he has managed to retain a solid core of Christian admirers. Aoun may embody the
very worst features of the Lebanese political class that his supporters once
claimed to oppose, but nowadays they are willing to overlook all that because
deep down, their principle difficulty with the political system was envy. They
wanted what everyone else had.
You have to admire Aoun’s cynicism. He always grasped that envy was the key to
the hearts and minds of many Christians after the war ended. It was envy
directed against the national reconstruction effort, from which many Christians,
rightly or wrongly, felt excluded; envy directed against Taif, which took power
away from the Maronite president and placed it in a cabinet led by a Sunni prime
minister; and envy directed against mainstream politicians who had cut a deal
with the Syrians, thereby monopolizing the instruments of patronage while Aoun
rotted in exile (and Samir Geagea in prison).
When Aoun returned home he continued to manipulate envy. The old resentments
were still alive, to which the general added fresh ones. He directed his flock’s
envy against the March 14 coalition, which had denied him the presidency;
against Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, whose loathing of Aoun was written
all over his mitre; against President Michel Sleiman, who occupied the office
that Aoun coveted. Envy was everywhere. Aoun became a maestro of acrimony,
issuing bilious declarations, deploying libel and imprecation, his body language
radiating annoyance as he insinuated that he and his own were entitled to much
more than they were getting.
The more ridiculous Aoun’s performances became, the more ridiculous his devotees
appeared for applauding his every asinine semi-colon. And yet many have remained
with him, so that those of us who wrote Aoun off too readily must admit that we
were partly wrong. The man has lost ground, without question, offers nothing, is
arguably the most destructive politician the Christians have had in decades, has
no vision worth mentioning, and embodies, as do others, the brutish pursuit of
naked self-interest. But his survival is ensured for as long as he can feed off
the flaws and fears of his community.
Aoun’s durability tells us much, too much, about the Christians. The general is
not alone in meriting condemnation, and the fact that the community’s principal
leaders are figures who became prominent during the war years is hardly a badge
of honor. But not a few Christians want Aoun nonetheless. As they follow him
through his labyrinth of self-serving policies, anti-democratic diatribes and
corrosive envies, it is beyond time for them to ask if Michel Aoun offers them a
better future, or more disenchantment.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut and
author of The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life
Struggle. He tweets @BeirutCalling.
The Lessons of the Second Lebanon War Five years later.
12:15 PM, Aug 12, 2011 • By LAZAR
The Weekly Standard
The recent exchange of fire between the IDF and Lebanese Armed Forces troops is
a reminder that Israel’s northern border has been relatively quiet these last
five years, or ever since the 2006 war that Israel fought with Hezbollah. Five
years ago, on July 12, a Hezbollah ambush set off the 34-day conflict that has
loomed large over the region ever since. In the war’s immediate aftermath, many
outside observers hailed Hezbollah as the winner.
However, five years later our understanding of the war is different. Israel,
despite its many blunders—political, diplomatic, and military—and despite the
sacrifice of 121 soldiers and the loss of 44 civilians, comes out looking much
better than it did back then. Deterrence has been re-established and in spite of
operations against Hezbollah targets, like the 2008 assassination of Imad
Mughniyeh in Damascus, attributed to Israel, the border is quieter than ever.
The five-year anniversary provides an opportunity to reexamine the conflict, and
what others may learn from it, including American officials.
Reservists from the 91st Division’s C Company were feeling good that July
morning. It was the last day of their deployment, and the infantrymen—students
and professionals, fathers and husbands in civilian life—were looking forward to
getting home. Though there had been warnings of infiltration attempts in the
area, the routine morning patrol left the company base without the standard
briefing; after all, they were only hours away from swapping their olive green
uniforms for jeans and shorts. Their relaxed attitude had deadly consequences.
As the patrol’s two Humvees rounded a bend on the Israel-Lebanon border road
near Moshav Zar’it, Hezbollah fighters waiting in a prepared position opened
fire at the vehicles with RPGs, killing five and capturing two, Udi Goldwasser
and Eldad Regev.
Already engaged in Operation Summer Rains in Gaza after the kidnapping of Gilad
Shalit two weeks before, Israel decided to respond with force. Though able to
achieve some initial successes, including knocking out most of Hezbollah’s
medium- and long-range rockets, the IDF proved unable to slow the rain of
short-range rockets on northern Israel. For most of the war, Israeli chief of
staff Dan Halutz introduced ground forces reluctantly, sending them to fight
urban battles only kilometers from the border, only to repeatedly relinquish
captured territory by withdrawing immediately. Though Israel managed to kill
hundreds of Hezbollah fighters, it captured very few prisoners. In short, the
IDF underperformed.
The political leadership did considerably worse. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
declared unrealistic war aims—return of the kidnapped soldiers, expulsion of
Hezbollah from the area, and fulfillment of United Nations Security Council
Resolution 1559 calling for the disbanding of all militias in Lebanon and
calling for the deployment of the Lebanese army in all of southern Lebanon. But
by leaving fulfillment of so many of the war’s aims in enemy hands, Olmert gave
Hezbollah leverage over Israel’s ability to claim victory. It was hardly a
surprise, then, when after the ceasefire was declared, Hezbollah’s general
secretary Hassan Nasrallah declared that it was Hezbollah who won the war.
Despite the initial backing Israel received from America, Europe, and many Arab
states, the lack of progress in the war and mounting civilian casualties in
Lebanon caused this rare international support to dissipate. Israel’s failure to
slow the katyusha fire or present a coherent plan for victory caused the U.S. to
push for a negotiated settlement.
The perception of failure reverberated at home as much as it did in foreign
capitals. By failing to defeat Hezbollah decisively on the ground or to achieve
the stated war aims, the IDF let the Israeli public decide it was defeated.
Israeli media promoted this narrative after the war effort began to sputter. For
instance, there was the story of Paratrooper Battalion 890. On its way out of
Bint Jbeil, the battalion received intelligence on an elite Hezbollah force on
the attack, and prepared an ambush that killed 26 Hezbollah guerrillas without
losing a single soldier. The Ma’ariv headline the next day read simply, “The
Ground Forces left Bint Jbeil”.
In hindsight, the sources of Israel’s frustration in the war seem obvious. After
years of fighting Palestinian terrorists, patrolling the territories, and
transferring money from defense to domestic ministries, the IDF lost its
fighting edge. This was especially true of the reservists, as the government
slashed their training budget drastically. The IDF adopted “Kela” in 2003, a
multi-year spending plan involving painful cuts. The IDF closed entire units and
released 6,000 regular army personnel. Only a month and a half after approving
the plan, the government slashed another NIS (New Israeli Shekel) 500 million
from the IDF budget, leading to further reductions in reserve call-ups,
training, and equipment.
The drop in training was especially severe. By 2006, the IDF training budget was
only half of what it had been in 2001. Cuts in reserve training were even more
severe, dropping by 70 percent. In fact, in 2003, the reserve training budget
temporarily dropped to zero, and training simply did not take place.
The skills of the regular army suffered as well. Instead of adhering to the
pre-2000 schedule of deploying for four months, then training as a brigade for
four months, units performed yearlong tours in the West Bank and Gaza, rarely
training between deployments. The lack of preparation showed itself in the
fighting. Combined and joint operations were often ineffective.
Perhaps the most salient example showing the deteriorated state of combined
operations was the August 11-13 battle at Wadi Saluki. The commander of the
401st Armored Brigade, Col. Motti Kidor, ordered the 9th Battalion to cross the
Saluki River, then spearhead a drive west to the coast. To reach the river, the
battalion had to traverse exposed ground dominated by surrounding villages.
Battalion commander Lt. Col. Effie Defrin called in an artillery smoke screen to
conceal his advance, but the smoke screen, improperly deployed, dissipated after
a few minutes. Defrin also expected an engineering battalion to prepare his
route, but before the tanks could advance, the engineers were withdrawn without
finishing their work.
The route Defrin took cut him off from radio communication with a Nahal infantry
brigade tasked with protecting his forces from the overlooking heights.
Moreover, the infantrymen seemed not to grasp fully that their mission was to
protect the armored advance, which came under withering anti-tank fire from
Hezbollah fighters hidden on the ridges above.
Even though Kidor and Nahal commander Mickey Edelstein established headquarters
in the same house, their coordination was minimal at best, and as a result,
Edelstein did not know the tanks were under attack and out of touch. The Saluki
crossing cost 11 dead and 50 wounded. “I never imagined,” said a general at a
post-war briefing on the battle, “that the army’s performance was so shoddy.”
Trendy, complicated ideas introduced into the IDF also left their mark on
Israel’s 2006 performance. Innovative ideas are exciting to the military, but
not all innovation is helpful. In the IDF, Gen. Shimon Naveh, director of the
IDF’s Operational Theory Research Institute from 1995-2005, introduced
innovative, exciting ideas about Operational Art, and those who refused to buy
into them were marginalized. Naveh tried to change the way IDF officers
conceived of their operations, applying ideas and terms from literary theory,
psychology, and postmodern French philosophy to military art. He assigned his
disciples books like A Thousand Plateaus: Capitalism and Schizophrenia by the
French post-structuralists Gilles Deleuze and Felix Guattari. Using their
theory, Naveh crafted a framework for commanders to make swift decisions in the
constantly changing battlefield environment. "I tried to extricate us from the
Western separation between practice and theory,” explains Naveh. “This hero, the
commander, the operative person, lives in a permanently coalescing space. He
needs a theory in order to think critically about the object of his observation,
and the moment he acts, he changes the world, thus obliging him to recast the
theory
These innovative but overly complex and theoretical ideas proved detrimental to
the IDF performance in the 2006 conflict. Naveh’s complicated terminology became
the lingua franca of some segments of the officer corps, which in practice
translated into unclear orders that were understood neither by subordinates nor
by the officers who gave them. Unclear language and thinking had an effect even
at the apex of IDF command. For instance, Halutz issued an order for entry into
Lebanon, Operation Changing Direction 3: “A system-wide, integrated, and timed
strike (Onslaught) of maneuver operations with all capabilities in order to
undermine the operational performance of the organization [Hezbollah].” An order
to conquer a hill or occupy a village is easy for commanders to follow. In the
middle of a difficult war, they should not have to start deciphering what they
might do to “undermine the operational performance” of Hezbollah, and how they
should measure success in this regard
While a core group of senior Israeli officers immersed themselves in Naveh’s
teachings, political leaders failed to maintain Israel’s deterrence against
Hezbollah. After Israel withdrew from Lebanon in 2000, then-prime minister Ehud
Barak warned both Lebanon and Syria that cross-border attacks would be
considered “acts of war.” But Barak, and later Ariel Sharon and Olmert,
repeatedly vetoed IDF recommendations to respond aggressively, protecting the
calm on the border while allowing Hezbollah to attack and build up its arsenal.
Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, then commanding the IDF’s Northern Command, wrote a letter
to his superiors in August 2000 stating that continued Hezbollah provocations
“will lead to a situation that we will not be able to accept.” Two months later,
Hezbollah kidnapped three soldiers. The IDF pushed for a determined strike to
deter future aggression, but the cabinet decided on limited and largely
ineffective aerial attacks. The 2006 war was proof that deterrence without the
determination to follow through on threats would not win Israel calm and quiet
but only war.
It was the 2006 conflict that re-established Israeli deterrence. It is true that
since the war Hezbollah has built up its arsenal beyond pre-war levels. But with
more than 500 of its fighters dead, and Nasrallah living in a bunker, Hezbollah
has never been as quiet as it has been since the 2006 war.
Despite the limits of deterrence, Israel sees it as the best available option.
“This approach provides a limited remedy,” BESA Center’s Dr. Eitan Shamir writes
in Infinity Journal. “Israel paid a high price in international public opinion
in while its approach did not solve the root causes of the problem. Moreover, it
does not even prevent the organizations from rearming and preparing for the next
round, which will most likely be more violent. However, it has bought years of
quiet borders—not a negligible achievement in this volatile region.”
American commanders see the complex challenge posed by Hezbollah as a harbinger
of future conflicts the U.S. will face. Gen. George Casey, Jr., US Army chief of
staff, declared, “the conflict that…intrigues me most, and I think speaks more
toward what we can expect in the decades ahead, is the one that happened in
Lebanon in the summer of 2006.”
The Pentagon has sent at least twelve teams to interview Israeli officers who
fought in 2006. “I've organized five major games in the last two years,” said
Frank Hoffman of the Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory in Quantico. “And all
of them have focused on Hezbollah.”
Nonetheless, several reports that came out shortly after the conflict erred on
fundamental aspects of the war. In “We Were Caught Unprepared,” a Ft.
Leavenworth Combat Studies Institute study of the war, historian Matt Matthews
claims that Israel adopted a doctrine, based on Effects-Based Operations (EBO),
that led it to believe that airpower alone could win the war. “For six years,”
contends Matthews, “the IDF conducted a ounterinsurgency campaign against the
Palestinians and developed a doctrine rooted in EBO and high-tech wizardry.”
However, Israel never adopted this doctrine, nor did it ever think it could win
from the air. Matthews misses the real problem: The IDF had no doctrine,
especially in the ground war. More troublingly, Matthews’s uncritical use of
sources leads him to present the war as a resounding victory for Hezbollah.
Despite this, “We Were Caught Unprepared” and other associated CSI studies are
among the most-cited works on the wars in the United States, causing other
students of the conflict to adopt their erroneous conclusions.
Perhaps the most pertinent lessons the United States military can draw from the
Second Lebanon War concern defense budgets and strategy against terrorist
organizations. With calls in the United States to pull money from defense
budgets, and a military focused on COIN, the American armed forces could find
themselves in a situation similar to the IDF of 2006. Without appropriate
training and resources, even the most skilled formations will struggle in
complex combat situations that differ greatly from counter-insurgency
operations. As the Israelis learned, facing a certain type of conflict for a
decade is no guarantee of the shape future warfare will take. It would be most
prudent to train and fund an American military that can handle both COIN and the
conventional ends of the spectrum. Indeed, Israeli-style deterrence may begin to
look like an attractive alternative to resource and manpower heavy population
centric counterinsurgency strategy.
There is no doubt that American adversaries are studying and perhaps preparing
to emulate Hezbollah’s strategy from 2006. Studying Israel’s successes and
failures is a key component in preparing for America’s future conflicts.
**Lazar Berman is research program manager for Foreign and Defense Policy
Studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
Assad’s tribal miscalculation
Tony Badran, August 11, 2011
Now Lebanon
Despite the escalation in Arab, Turkish and international condemnation of the
Syrian regime following its deadly assault on the city of Hama on the first day
of Ramadan, Bashar al-Assad has pressed on with his military offensives against
Syrian cities. While the protest movement has been overwhelmingly peaceful,
Assad’s large military campaign against the eastern city of Deir az-Zour might
become a turning point in the uprising.
One week after the assault on Hama, the Assad regime, which had heretofore
stopped short of an all-out offensive on Deir az-Zour—even as it launched one in
July in Al Bou Kamal, a little further south—finally raided the city with more
than 200 tanks and armored vehicles. By day’s end on Sunday, the death toll
already stood at 50. Another 17 were killed on Monday, as regime forces moved
systematically from one neighborhood to another. The number of dead is now very
likely well past the 100 mark, and residents who managed to flee have been
recounting the horror inflicted on the city, where Assad’s forces are “shooting
anything that moves.”
The regime’s calculation seems to be to crush cities that have not only defied
the regime through massive demonstrations, but which have even briefly escaped
government control. On July 22, hundreds of thousands took to the streets in
Deir az-Zour calling for Assad’s downfall. The consensus was that Ramadan
carried the potential for such protests to occur daily, and so the regime’s
thinking was to preempt such a possibility with brutal military action,
recapturing these cities, and, in Hama’s case, making sure that footage of the
carnage was broadcast as a warning.
However, unlike Hama, Deir az-Zour presents a different set of challenges that
could result in Assad’s decision ultimately backfiring, with potentially
critical ramifications on a military already stretched thin and an economy in
tatters.
One reason why the regime had hesitated to fully take on Deir az-Zour was its
tribal nature, which extends across the border into Iraq. Historically, the
Assad regime had sought a modus vivendi with the tribes of eastern Syria.
However, this had now come to an end, as was evident from the active role the
leader of the region’s main tribal confederacy, Sheikh Nawwaf al-Bashir, was
playing against the Assad regime.
Bashir is the head sheikh of the entire al-Baqqara tribal confederacy, which
encompasses thirty subdivisions. Al-Baqqara extends into the Anbar province in
Western Iraq, where its kinsmen number even more than in Syria. A couple of
weeks ago, the regime abducted and detained Bashir. The tribes were incensed.
A YouTube video of a meeting of tribal members from Deir az-Zour discussing how
to proceed, as Assad’s forces surrounded their city prior to the offensive,
shows the tribesmen’s utter distrust of the regime and their willingness to
stand up to it, and even to bear whatever arms they have against it.
This sentiment was echoed by various residents who spoke to the media on the eve
of the assault. One person who spoke to the New York Times predicted that “all
the tribes in the other provinces will demonstrate against the regime” should it
attack Deir az-Zour. Another activist noted last Sunday that tribal kinsmen on
the Iraqi side “have vowed to step in and back their brethren in Syria if they
come under attack. Until now this is rhetoric, [but a] wide-scale military
assault on Deir al-Zor … would change those calculations.”
Now that the offensive has taken place, and the city has been recaptured by the
regime, the coming days will reveal what course of action the tribes will
follow. Should they decide to pick up armed resistance, it would open a new
chapter in the Syrian revolution.
The regime is particularly vulnerable in Deir az-Zour. Already there was a
mysterious pipeline explosion there in mid-July, which the authorities said was
only an accident. These pipelines could become a deliberate target, which would
hit Assad’s last remaining source of funding: the energy sector.
For the regime to hold Deir az-Zour, it would have to allocate more resources to
the northeast, adding to the stress on force cohesion. On the one hand, wherever
the military has pulled out after operations, protesters have immediately
returned to the streets. On the other hand, an extended military occupation of
the city could spur the tribes into a war of attrition that could potentially
become a fatal wound for Assad’s forces.
The situation in eastern Syria has the potential to metastasize. Early in May,
sharp observers were expressing concern that, given the impotence of the world’s
reaction to Assad’s horrific violence, the Syrian protesters might conclude that
they need to resort to violence.
This is precisely why the US has to declare that it seeks Assad’s ouster and
begin working with its allies toward achieving that goal. The Syrian people’s
ability to remain peaceful for nearly half a year in the face of unspeakable
brutality is remarkable. The longer Assad remains, the longer violence will
continue to engulf Syria.
*Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
He tweets @AcrossTheBay.
U.N. documents contradict Irish Army over 1989 UNIFIL deaths: report
August 15, 2011 /The Daily Star
BEIRUT: An Irish newspaper has uncovered U.N. material regarding the deaths of
three Irish U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon soldiers in a roadside bomb blast in
south Lebanon in 1989 which contradict Irish Army accounts. Documents at the
United Nations in New York show that, contrary to what the army has always
maintained, the road should have been swept for mines prior to the trip as part
of Irish Army daily procedure, the Irish Examiner reported Monday.
Investigations into the deaths are ongoing after new evidence and pressure from
relatives of the killed prompted the Irish government to launch an independent
inquiry, the results of which are expected to be handed over this Friday.
Questions linger over whether the road on which the blast occurred on March 21,
1989, should have been considered safe for the convoy to use.
The U.N. documents also contradicted Irish Army claims that there was no
previous evidence of south Lebanon UNIFIL peacekeepers being targeted, the
newspaper said.
The end of a cowardly Regime
By Hussein Shobokshi
Even the most optimistic of observers couldn't have imagined such a closing
scene for the Syrian regime. The popular uprising there is glowing with
determination and enthusiasm, as internal support grows alongside international
approval and blessing. Even the staunchest followers and allies of the Syrian
regime couldn't have conceived such fragility and stupidity on its part, but
this is how events have developed. Everything happening now is the natural
outcome of an accumulative sequence upon which this regime was founded.
Bashar al-Assad tried with all means possible to convince the world and the
Syrian people that he was the one and only option for reform. Yet even Bashar
himself was not truly convinced of this claim. He appeared before his people
delivering a series of speeches which were more like academic lectures. The man
refused to accept responsibility for the crimes and failures which have occurred
over a stretch of four decades of despotic rule, and refused to have them blamed
on his late father, his party, or his government, as if what has occurred in
Syria was the result of some extraterrestrial invasion.
The Syrian regime was never, at any point in its history, honest, clear and
capable of confronting its problems. It has always acted with cowardice and
deception when dealing with the issues facing it. It was always good at offering
scapegoats who would take the rap for any failure or public anger. The regime
would offer them as a form of temporary anesthetic to absorb the popular
resentment, as happened with Refaat al-Assad, Ghazi Kanaan, Mahmud al-Zu'bi,
Abdul Halim Khadam and Ali Habib, among other familiar names.
All methods of suppression and killing have failed. All means of atrocious
terrorization employed by the Syrian army against its own people have proved
unsuccessful, including running them over with tanks, dragging their mutilated
bodies along, murdering children, torching hospitals and demolishing mosques,
not to mention other savage ways of repression.
Yet something strange happened Friday before last, known as "God with us"
Friday. The revolution started moving in a qualitative manner. Official
statements were issued by several governments, taking a clear and firm position
against the regime whilst siding with the revolution. They explicitly called for
a peaceful transition of power. No one is asking the regime to bring about
reforms anymore. The international community now realizes that those who have
destroyed the country are incapable of rebuilding it, and that those who have
lied cannot be trusted. Even the closest and strongest allies of this
bloodthirsty regime have maintained complete silence on account of its horrific
crimes.
Now there is talk about when Bashar al-Assad will go, and how. Will he flee the
country along with his ruling gang? Will he be assassinated? Will the army turn
against the regime? Will Assad be arrested or not?
This bloodthirsty criminal regime has surrounded the family residences of two
venerable clerics, namely Mohammed Said Ramadan al-Bouti and the Mufti Ahmad al-Hassoun.
The regime is threatening to kill members of both households if either cleric
utters a word against the regime, which is aware of their popularity in the
street. But there are other clerics in Syria who publicly disowned this cowardly
regime which has never been honest or candid. It is only a matter of time before
the regime collapses. This explains the frenzied nervousness within its ranks,
its savage indiscriminate killing, and its slogans emblazoned on walls. The
walls of Hama's mosques have been stained with phrases like "There is no god
except Bashar and Maher is his messenger" and "al-Assad or no one".
This is the mentality governing Syria today. But al-Assad is a ruler whose time
is up, a ruler who has lost all credibility, all respect, and all humanity. His
departure has become inevitable and his absence would be hardly mourned by
anyone with a responsible humanistic sense, a vigilant conscience, and religious
restraint. We are reading the last chapter of the story of a cowardly regime,
and I believe it will have a happy and blessed ending for the Syrian revolution
and the entire world.
Egypt's Mubarak back in court for trial
CAIRO (AP) — Former President Hosni Mubarak returned to a Cairo court Monday on
a stretcher for the next session of his trial on charges of corruption and
complicity in killing protesters during Egypt's uprising.
The ailing, 83-year old Mubarak arrived in a helicopter from a Cairo hospital
where he has been held since his first court appearance on Aug. 3. He was then
wheeled into the metal defendants' cage on a bed with his two sons, Gamal and
Alaa, by his side. The sons are facing only corruption charges.
Mubarak appeared in a blue jumpsuit. His two sons wore white prison uniforms.
Before arriving in the dock, Mubarak's older son Alaa covered a state TV camera
to try to block it from filming his father being taken out of the ambulance to
go into the courtroom. Mubarak's health had been subject of speculation for
weeks before his trial, and many suspected he might not even appear in court.
Brief scuffles between Mubarak supporters and opponents broke out outside the
trial venue at a Cairo police academy. Hundreds of Mubarak supporters protested
outside the courtroom over what they called "humiliation" of the former leader.
As Mubarak lay in the cage, lawyers for the relatives of the slain protesters
shouted and bickered before the judge arrived in the room, apparently over
seats.
Mubarak is charged with complicity in the killing of protesters during the
uprising that ousted him and of corruption in accepting gifts to facilitate a
land deal. His former interior minister, who was in charge of police and other
security forces who violently confronted mostly peaceful protesters, is also a
defendant in the same case and accused of complicity in killing some of the
nearly 900 protesters who died.