LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 20/2011
Bible Quotation for today/Jesus Condemns Their Hypocrisy
Matthew 23/13-15: "How terrible for you, teachers of the Law and Pharisees! You
hypocrites! You lock the door to the Kingdom of heaven in people's faces, but
you yourselves don't go in, nor do you allow in those who are trying to enter!
How terrible for you, teachers of the Law and Pharisees! You hypocrites! You
sail the seas and cross whole countries to win one convert; and when you
succeed, you make him twice as deserving of going to hell as you yourselves are
Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from
miscellaneous sources
Beyond Russia’s UN draft resolution on Syria/By: Ana Maria
Luca/December 19/11
Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for
December 19/11
Amir Oren / No sign U.S. has given Israel green light to
strike Iran
Erdogan's
illness impacts events around Syria and Iran
Arab League 'Optimistic' Syria to Sign Observers Deal by
Monday
Syria signs Arab League
deal to allow observers
Ahmadinejad Describes Arab States' Actions on Syria as
'Joke'
Syria Loyalists Rally as Arabs Await Response on Deal
Syria Releases Blogger Razan Ghazzawi on Bail
Syria Expected to Agree Observer Deal Monday Afternoon
Islamists win 70 percent of the vote in second round of
Egypt elections
Iran TV shows suspected U.S. spy 'confessing'
South Lebanon: Katyusha Rockets Found in Hasbaya
Lebanon's Arabic press digest - Dec. 19, 2011
Beirut MPs to renew
demand for declaring Beirut arms-free city
Report: Hezbollah in dire financial straits
Maronite agreement on
election law draws fire
Lebanon's Interior minister refuses to adopt Orthodox plan
on electoral law
Future bloc MP Samir al-Jisr: Future Movement commission
formed to follow up on electoral law talks
Jamaa al-Islamiya group MP Imad al-Hout says non-state
arms in Beirut “incite strife”
Future Movement official Mustafa Allouch warns against new
“security incidents” in Lebanon
Heavy Clashes in Ain al-Hilweh after Another al-Lino
Bodyguard Killed
Syrian unrest to slow
Lebanon in 2012
Lebanon:
Red Diesel Prices Drop as Cabinet Decision Comes into
Force
Lebanon: Ghosn Says Authorities Have New Leads on Rocket
Attack
Lebanese Cabinet Expected to Issue Wage Hike Decree on
Wednesday
Lebanese Security Forces ‘Closely Monitor’ Ain el-Hilweh
Amid Fears of Outbreak of Major Violence
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri Willing to Leave If
People Vote him Out
Iraq VP Barred from Overseas Travel in Political Crisis
Swedish Carmaker Saab Files for Bankruptcy
N. Korean Leader Kim Jong-Il Dies at 69
World Reacts to N. Korea Leader’s Death
Syria signs deal to let in Arab monitors
CAIRO, (Reuters) - Syria signed a protocol on Monday to allow in monitors, part
of an Arab peace plan that aims to end a nine-month crackdown on protests
against President Bashar al-Assad's rule.
A Reuters witness saw Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad sign the
protocol at the Arab League headquarters in Cairo and a League diplomat
confirmed it had been inked.Syria has stalled for weeks over signing the
protocol on monitors, although it had agreed to other parts of the plan. The
League suspended Syria from the pan-Arab body and announced sanctions against
Damascus
Report: Hezbollah in dire financial straits
French daily Le Figaro says Lebanese terror group hit hard by civil uprising in
Syria, sanctions against Iran
Ynet Published: 12.18.11, 17:44 / Israel News
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4163386,00.html
While Hezbollah General Secretary Hassan Nasrallah appeared to be in high
spirits recently during a rare public appearance in a suburb of Beirut, his
organization is experiencing a severe financial crisis, French daily Le Figaro
reported over the weekend. According to the article, which was based on
information obtained by French intelligence agencies, the civil uprising against
President Bashar Assad in Syria has significantly reduced the flow of money to
the Lebanese terror group. Moreover, the report said, Iran has recently cut its
financial aid to Hezbollah by 25% due in part to the international sanctions
imposed on the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program. Le Figaro said the
financial crisis has led some Hezbollah terrorists to deal drugs in north
Lebanon. Just last week US prosecutors indicted a Lebanese national who they
said led a massive international drug smuggling ring with links to Hezbollah.
The US Treasury and the FBI have banned American organizations from donating to
Hezbollah, which is designated under US law as a terrorist organization. Last
month Nasrallah claimed Hezbollah had unraveled a web of CIA informants and
officers in Iran and Lebanon. According to Le Figaro's report, the network
caused significant damage to the Shiite group. Hezbollah's financial woes are
also the result of corruption, the report said. According to Le Figaro, the
terror group's investment manager had embezzled close to $1.6 billion. The
report said that during a speech in Beirut two weeks ago Nasrallah chastised the
organization's female members for becoming, as he put it, too "bourgeois" and
spending too much of the organization's money. Le Figaro said this was yet
another indication of Hezbollah's dire financial situation. The French daily
claimed that the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri in 2005
was planned by top Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, without Nasrallah's
knowledge.
Erdogan's illness impacts
events around Syria and Iran
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report /December 18, 2011/ Extreme concern was quietly
voiced Sunday, Dec. 18, by American and European official circles over the state
of Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's health – and especially its impact on
present and impending events in Syria and other parts of the Middle East,
including Iran, debkafile's Western intelligence sources report. Those sources
say Erdogan is suffering from Rectosigmoid cancer, but were not sure if it had
reached the advanced Stage TIII (spread out of the colon to regional lymph
nodes).
They also said they did not know what treatment he had received at the Istanbul
hospital where he was first admitted and latterly at the Hacettepe Hospital in
Ankara.
Sunday, Turkish Health Minister Recep Akdag, talking to local journalists, told
them not to pay attention to the "gossip" that the hospital had prepared a
special room for the prime minister to conduct affairs of state, but did not
deny it. No denials were issued either of Turkish news reports about Erdogan
undergoing "abdominal surgery " on Nov. 26. They also reported that, since he
was released, an air force ambulance helicopter had been standing outside his
home.
According to reports flying around Ankara Sunday, which were neither confirmed
nor denied, the Turkish prime minister is back in hospital.
debkafile's sources would only admit they are worried because the lengthy
medical treatment he needs has already had an effect on the state of Middle East
decision-making, especially in relation to the urgent Syrian crisis.
Thursday night, Dec. 15, Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul led a top military
command council meeting in Ankara to review preparations for war on two possible
fronts - Syria and Iran, if Tehran decides to come to Bashar Assad's aid.
On Friday, the Turkish prime minister met US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta who
flew in from Baghdad.
When Turkish journalists asked after his health, Erdogan replied: "I'm fine and
I will be better."
Our sources point out that whatever decisions were made at the Turkish military
council conference and the consultations between Turkish and American security
chiefs, Erdogan's ill health was clearly uppermost in every mind in Ankara – and
not only there.
In Washington, there is considerable anxiety. US President Barack Obama regards
Erdogan as a personal friend and his senior ally in the execution of
administration Middle East policies, especially with regard to Iran and Syria.
The two leaders were recently described by insiders as having developed
"intimate relations of trust." According to some sources, they had at least 14
phone conversations in recent months.
The question asked in Washington is this: Is the Turkish leader in fit condition
to continue to help the Obama administration carry forward their agreed plans in
the region?
They were not encouraged by the comment heard from Deputy Prime Minister Bulent
Arinc while Erdogan was away from Ankara.
He chastised the ruling Justice and Development Party –AKP for "divisions… in
Edrogan's absence…" over a bill for regulating the nomination of party
candidates.
Turkish pundits saw those "divisions" as symptoms of a power struggle already
afoot over the Erdogan legacy.
And so the next day, Arinc admitted "he had made a very big mistake" in bringing
the argument out in the open.There were no comments in Israel on the Turkish prime minister's medical
condition.
N. Korean Leader Kim Jong-Il Dies at 69
Naharnet /North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il has died aged 69 of a
heart attack, state media announced Monday, plunging the impoverished but
nuclear-armed nation into uncertainty amid a second dynastic succession. The
official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said the leader "passed away from a
great mental and physical strain" at 8:30 am on Saturday (23:30 GMT Friday),
while on a train for one of his "field guidance" tours. It urged people to
follow his youngest son and heir apparent Kim Jong-Un, who is aged in his late
20s and until last year had no public profile. "All party members, military men
and the public should faithfully follow the leadership of comrade Kim Jong-Un
and protect and further strengthen the unified front of the party, military and
the public," said the news agency and a weeping black-clad TV announcer. KCNA
said Kim died of a "severe myocardial infarction along with a heart attack". It
said an autopsy was performed Sunday.
The leader suffered a stroke in August 2008 which left him with impaired
movement in his left arm and leg. His funeral will be held on December 28 in
Pyongyang but no foreign delegations will be invited, KCNA said. A period of
national mourning was declared from December 17 to 29. South Korea placed all
troops on emergency alert after the shock news, the South's Yonhap news agency
reported. It summoned a meeting of the National Security Council and President
Lee Myung-Bak cancelled all his schedules. The Joint Chiefs of Staff said it had
increased monitoring along the border along with U.S. forces in the country but
no unusual activity had been observed. North and South Korea have remained
technically at war since their three-year Korean conflict ended only in an
armistice in 1953.
KCNA, quoting a statement from the national funeral committee headed by Jong-Un,
said Kim Jong-Il's body would lie in state in Kumsusan palace where his father's
embalmed body is on display.
It said mourners would be allowed to visit the body from December 20 to 27.
Following the funeral, another event to mourn the leader would be held on
December 29. Mourning shots would be fired and three minutes of silence would be
observed. All trains and ships would sound their horns. Kim took over after his
father and founding president Kim Il-Sung died in 1994. In the mid- to
late-1990s he presided over a famine which killed hundreds of thousands of his
people. Severe food shortages continue and the U.N. children's fund estimates
one-third of children are stunted by malnutrition. But Kim still found resources
to continue a nuclear weapons program which culminated in tests in October 2006
and May 2009. For several months there have been diplomatic efforts to restart
six-nation nuclear disarmament talks which the North abandoned in April 2009.
U.S envoy Robert King held talks in Beijing last week about the possible
resumption of U.S. food aid. There had been speculation the two sides would meet
in Beijing this week for separate talks about reviving the six-party
process.Source Agence France Presse
World Reacts to N. Korea Leader’s Death
Naharnet /Minutes after the announcement of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il’s
death, the world leaders were on alert on Monday urging Pyongyang to engage with
the global community.
The United States swiftly closed ranks with its ally South Korea, as President
Barack Obama called his close friend President Lee Myung-Bak of South Korea at
midnight on the U.S. east coast, as Washington and its regional allies digested
the death of the Stalinist state's volatile 69-year-old leader.
"The President reaffirmed the United States' strong commitment to the stability
of the Korean peninsula and the security of our close ally, the Republic of
Korea," the White House said in a statement.
South Korea ordered its military on emergency alert and increased border air
surveillance. Seoul also asked its U.S. ally, which stations 28,500 troops in
the South, to step up surveillance by planes and satellites, a JCS spokesman
said. No unusual activity had been observed from the North, officials said.
President Lee ordered all government officials on emergency response status,
meaning they are restricted from taking leave or traveling. Kim's death came as
North Korea and the United States were making tentative efforts to restart
stalled six-nation talks on the North's nuclear program.
Nuclear envoys from Washington and Pyongyang met in New York in July and in
Geneva in October, but reported no breakthrough. South Korea's Yonhap news
agency said that a third meeting could have taken place soon.Meanwhile, Japan
called an emergency security meeting to formulate its reaction to news of the
death of Kim.
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda cancelled a speech and rushed back to his
office where he held a meeting of senior ministers.
"I am aware that the report has been made. I have instructed that the facts be
checked," he told reporters after returning to his office.
He said he had ordered officials to beef up intelligence-gathering on North
Korea, to work closely with the United States, China and South Korea, and to
prepare for further unexpected developments.
U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon was among world leaders put on alert over the
death of Kim Jong-Il, officials said.
"The secretary general is aware but of the reports but we don't have an
immediate reaction," U.N. spokesman Martin Nesirky told Agence France Presse.
The United Nations has been desperately trying to raise international funds to
provide food for North Korea. It appealed for $218 million dollars this year but
less than 20 percent has been raised.
Ban, who is from South Korea, has in turn regularly expressed concern at the
deadlock in international talks on the North's nuclear arms program. He said
last week that the mood on the Korean peninsula was almost "frozen". Australia
also said it was critical governments exercised calm and restraint after the
death announcement.
Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd said nuclear North Korea was the single
most armed military zone anywhere in the world and it was at a critical
juncture.
"Two critical points need to be emphasized at this important time," he said.
"The first is that all governments, including the government of North Korea,
should at this time be exercising maximum calm and restraint both in terms of
what they do and in their diplomatic signaling.” Rudd said Canberra would remain
in close contact with allies the region in the days and weeks ahead, with the
leadership transition "uncertain". Kim's youngest son Kim Jong-Un, who Rudd said
was 28, is seen as the heir apparent.
China offered its "deep condolences" on the death of the North Korean leader Kim
Jong Il, a foreign ministry spokesman said.
"We are shocked to learn that DPRK top leader comrade Kim Jong Il passed away
and we hereby express our deep condolences on his demise and send sincere
regards to the DPRK people," foreign ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said. China
is a neighbor and close ally of the isolated Stalinist state, whose official
media announced on Monday that its leader had died of a heart attack at the age
of 69 and that his son, Kim Jong-Un, would succeed him. Analysts said his death
would be a source of concern to stability-obsessed leaders in Beijing who would
be anxious that Kim Jong-Un has not had enough time to secure control over the
country's government and military. Britain said Monday the death of Kim could be
a "turning point" for the isolated nation and urged his successor to engage with
the international community. "The people of North Korea are in official mourning
after the death of Kim Jong-Il. We understand this is a difficult time for
them," said Foreign Secretary William Hague in a statement.
"This could be a turning point for North Korea. "We hope that their new
leadership will recognize that engagement with the international community
offers the best prospect of improving the lives of ordinary North Korean
people."He also urged the nuclear-armed, famine-ridden state "to work for peace
and security in the region and take the steps necessary to allow the resumption
of the Six Party Talks on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula".Source
Agence France Presse
Ahmadinejad Describes Arab States' Actions on Syria as
'Joke'
Naharnet /Actions by Arab states towards Iran's restive ally Syria are "like a
joke," Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Monday, amid signs Damascus
was about to bow to Arab League demands to admit observers."Certain regional
countries carry out acts which Iran considers to be more like a joke," the
official IRNA news agency quoted Ahmadinejad as saying."Some regional countries,
which have never held an election, have come together and pass resolutions
against another country saying 'why don't you hold an election'?" he said.The
criticism came as indications mounted that Syria could soon allow in foreign
observers to monitor an Arab League-sponsored deal meant to quell nine months of
bloodshed.An Arab diplomat told Agence France Presse in Egypt that Syria's
deputy foreign minister, Faisal al-Maqdad, was expected to sign the agreement
later Monday.Cairo airport sources confirmed that Maqdad had arrived in the
Egyptian capital. The Arab League last month suspended Syria and imposed a raft
of sanctions on the country for refusing to let in the observers. Early this
month Syria finally said it would allow in the mission, but only if the
sanctions were lifted.
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri Willing to Leave If People Vote him Out
Naharnet/Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri stressed late Sunday that he was
willing to quit politics if the Lebanese people voted him out. “If people vote
me out I am willing to leave is that fair enough,” he said on Twitter when one
follower told him that Syrian President Bashar Assad’s father Hafez left his
post for him as Rafik Hariri did. “This is Nepotism and wrong,” the follower
said. “So you want me to leave politics?,” Hariri asked. He reiterated that he
has no problem with the Shiite sect and that his differences are with Hizbullah.
“I have a lot difference with Hizbullah politics and what they do, I have no
issue with the Shiites because we are Lebanese,” he said. Asked what his wish is
for New Year, the former PM tweeted: “My wish is to give every Lebanese the
freedom to speak and all infrastructure that is needed, from electricity to
roads to telecom.” He reiterated that he will be back to Beirut, stressing that
his “wish is to see Lebanon the way” his father slain ex-Premier Rafik Hariri
wanted it.
Future Movement official Mustafa Allouch warns against new “security incidents”
in Lebanon
December 19, 2011 /Future Movement official Mustafa Allouch on Monday warned of
possible “security incidents” in Lebanon, saying that Sunday’s clashes at the
Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp “might escalate.”He told the Free Lebanon
radio station that Sunday’s skirmish “might be [a preview] to a bigger explosion
[of the situation].”Allouch added that Hezbollah is the “decision maker on the
security level” in South Lebanon. Palestinian factions clashed heavily on Sunday
in the southern Lebanese refugee camp of Ain al-Hilweh after the bodyguard of a
top Palestinian commander, Mohammed Abdel Hamid Issa, alias “Al-Lino,” was shot
dead. -NOW Lebanon
Jamaa al-Islamiya group MP Imad al-Hout says non-state arms in Beirut “incite
strife”
December 19, 2011 /Jamaa al-Islamiya group MP Imad al-Hout said on Monday that
the presence of non-state weapons in Beirut fosters “sectarianism.”“[Non-state]
arms in the capital are weapons [that incite] strife,” he told Future News.In a
reference to a dispute, which escalated into gunfire and injured one person in
Beirut’s area of Zaidaniyeh near Aisha Bakkar, Hout said that such incidents
“confirm the need for the state to ensure security.”Future News television
reported last Friday that the dispute took place between a Hezbollah and an Amal
member, adding that the argument escalated into gunfire and injured two people
in the area.-NOW Lebanon
Future bloc MP Samir al-Jisr: Future Movement commission
formed to follow up on electoral law talks
December 19, 2011 /Future bloc MP Samir al-Jisr said on Monday that his party
does not support the adoption of the Orthodox electoral law plan, saying that a
commission was formed to communicate with other Lebanese parties regarding the
issue.“A Future Movement commission was formed and tasked with contacting all
allies regarding the [drafting of a new] electoral law,” Jisr told Voice of
Lebanon (93.3) radio station. He added that the Orthodox plan, which suggests
that citizens should vote for candidates from their own sects, favors “sectarian
federalism.”During a gathering held at Bkirki last Friday, Christian leaders and
MPs assigned a commission to consult with all “national components” to come up
with a draft parliamentary electoral law based on the Orthodox proposal.
Lebanese parties are presently debating the electoral law for the upcoming 2013
parliamentary elections.After the parliament agreed on drafting a law based on
proportional representation, some parties rejected the proposed law and called
for adopting the 2009 electoral law, which is based on simple majority
representation.-NOW Lebanon
Lebanon's Interior minister refuses to adopt Orthodox plan on electoral law
December 18, 2011 /Interior Minister Marwan Charbel said on Sunday that he will
not support the Orthodox plan pertaining to the electoral law.“I will not sign
[up for] it,” Charbel told New TV in a reference to the plan, which states that
citizens should vote for candidates from their own sects.He said that the
proposal “abolishes” the bill drafted by his ministry, which suggests that
Lebanon should adopt the proportional representation system in its upcoming 2013
elections.Lebanese parties are presently debating the electoral law for the
upcoming 2013 parliamentary elections.After the parliament agreed on drafting a
law based on proportional representation, some parties rejected the proposed law
and called for adopting the 2009 electoral law, which is based on simple
majority representation.
-NOW Lebanon
Cabinet Expected to Issue Wage Hike Decree on Wednesday
Naharnet/The cabinet is expected to swiftly issue the decree on the
controversial wage hike during its session on Wednesday, according to al-Liwaa
newspaper.
Sources denied that the appointments of the top civil servants to administrative
posts reserved for Christians, among them the Higher Judicial Council, will be
tackled during the session.
The agenda of the cabinet will include 54 items. The sources revealed that the
cabinet will hold another session on December 27 at the Grand Serail as the
General Labor Confederation is set to stage a strike across Lebanon to protest
the cabinet wage hike. Sources close to Prime Minister Najib Miqati told al-Joumhouria
newspaper on Monday that the cabinet will “issue the wage hike decree in
accordance with the Shura Council recommendations, although they’re not
binding.”The sources added that the PM “hopes” that the ministers take into
consideration the economic and financial status of the treasury before
“proposing any project that would cost the state millions.”The Shura Council
approved on Friday the cabinet’s controversial decision on the wage hike, by
adding some modifications to it but without interfering with the amount of
increase on brackets.The cabinet’s wage proposal made by Miqati states that the
minimum wage should be increased by LL100,000 to LL600,000, salaries under LL1
million by 30% up to a LL200,000 increase, and salaries above LL1 million by a
20% increase up to LL275,000.
Al-Lino: Architects of Ain al-Hilweh clashes ‘dangerous’
December 18, 2011 /A top Palestinian commander said on Sunday the parties
responsible for the clashes that erupted in Lebanon’s Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp
are “more dangerous” than the Sunni Islamist group Jund al-Sham. Mohammed Abdel
Hamid Issa, alias “Al-Lino,” who heads Palestinian party Fatah's police force in
the camp, told MTV that “there are intentions to incite strife [in the camp].”
However, he said that “such attempts will not be successful.”Al-Lino added that
the clashes that erupted in the camp “will not be repeated.” “There will not be
war in Ain al-Hilweh.”Palestinian factions clashed heavily on Sunday in the
southern refugee camp after the bodyguard of Al-Lino was shot dead by a masked
gunman.
-NOW Lebanon
Security Forces ‘Closely Monitor’ Ain el-Hilweh Amid Fears
of Outbreak of Major Violence
Naharnet/Lebanese security forces have gone on alert to “closely
monitor” the situation in the southern Palestinian refugee camp of Ain el-Hilweh
after the assassination of a bodyguard of Palestinian Armed Struggle chief
Mahmoud Issa. An Nahar daily on Monday quoted informed sources as saying that
the security forces are “closely monitoring” the camp amid reports that the
tension between the Fatah movement and Islamic militants had reached its climax.
Despite the reports, Issa who also goes by the nom de guerre of al-Lino, told
al-Liwaa newspaper that the security situation in the camp is “under control”
and that his group was coordinating with Lebanese authorities to guarantee a
stable situation. Al-Lino said on Sunday he suspected that remnants of the Jund
al-Sham militant group and Fatah al-Islam killed his bodyguard Amer Fustoq after
a masked gunman opened fire on him. But he stressed “there won’t be any war”
saying “there is an insistence to shove the Palestinian factions in a battle
whose shrapnel would reach” elsewhere. His comments came as several families
left the camp and headed to the city of Sidon after clashes broke out between
different factions. Automatic gunfire could still be heard inside the refugee
camp on Sunday evening.The National News Agency said that a percussion grenade
was also tossed near the vegetable market in the camp.As Safir daily quoted
sources of Ain el-Hilweh’s follow-up committee as saying that the situation in
the camp has become very dangerous and could “explode.”An Nahar’s sources also
expressed fears that the tension at the shantytown might be linked to the
roadside bombing that targeted French peacekeepers near the southern city of
Tyre and the rocket that was fired towards Israel but landed instead in
Houla.Last week, another al-Lino bodyguard was killed by a masked gunman.
A hard head makes a soft behind
Beyond Russia’s UN draft resolution on Syria
By: Ana Maria Luca/December 19, 2011
Russia’s envoy to the United Nations proposed on Friday a draft resolution on
Syria, sending a “clear message” to the Syrian government and its opposition to
launch dialogue and put an end to the nine months of violence that left more
than 5,000 people dead. Not surprisingly, Moscow’s draft resolution doesn’t call
for any sanctions against the Syrian government or its leader, President Bashar
al-Assad. Russia, which provides Syria with arms, argued that western
governments are trying to bring about regime change in Damascus by force,
similar to what happened in Libya after the UN sanctioned the bombing of Tripoli
and other major Libyan cities by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
But the US and France received Russia’s proposal with skepticism, saying it is
an attempt to equate Assad’s crackdown on protests with the self-defense
measures taken by the Syrian opposition.
Russia has consistently refused to acknowledge the one-sided brutality meted out
by the security forces on Syrian protestors, but admitting that there is
violence in Syria was a big concession to make for the Russian government. Syria
is important to the Kremlin. It is not just a business partner and a
long-standing regional ally; Assad’s rule is even more valuable in terms of
security as Russia fears the region will ignite if a full-blown civil war breaks
out in Syria.
But for the moment, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin finds himself between
a rock and a hard place. After the legislative elections on December 4, the
ex-Russian president, current PM and candidate for the next presidential
elections had a brief taste of what Assad has been going through for the past
nine months: Moscow’s streets filled with opposition supporters in the largest
protests since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, accusing him of ballot
fixing and calling for new elections. Many of the protestors were even calling
for a “Russia without Putin,” but state-controlled TV never broadcast these
images.
Putin, an experienced and cunning former KGB boss who knows that protests of
this size cannot happen spontaneously without strong encouragement from the
West, no doubt sees that the hard line he has taken in refusing to cooperate in
the UN Security Council on Syria has left him vulnerable at home.
Once one looks beyond the regional and historical particularities of Syria and
Russia, the similarities between Putin and Assad and their governments are
obvious. Both politicians worked hard in building their public image as modern
leaders; they spoke about reforming corrupt systems to please the masses, while
keeping their political rivals in prison or exile.
The two regimes are more authoritarian than pure dictatorships. The Baath Party
has ruled Syria for over 40 years, while Putin’s United Russia has been in power
since 1999. It is clear that Putin, who wants the presidency again, is not ready
to step down just yet.
As in Syria, Russian opposition leaders are under house arrest, in prison or
exile, beaten up in public squares, intimidated, framed in unfair trials and
banned from appearing on television. Journalists critical of the Kremlin have
also been threatened, silenced and in some cases even murdered.
But there was one space neither leader could control: the Internet. Protests in
Moscow were based on the Arab Spring model, resorting to Facebook, Twitter and
the blogosphere to organize and mobilize.
The Russians, who had fallen into a sort of political lethargy - discouraged and
intimidated by the tight grip on social and political freedoms, but appeased by
an acceptable standard of living - had a surprise this winter. While Russia’s
candidates dominated the political debates on television, bloggers debated
whether to boycott the elections or to vote for any other party competing with
Putin’s.
The Russian PM is a supremely cunning politician. He is neither emotional nor –
unlike many dictators – delusional, and he knows that revenge is a dish best
served cold. In Putin’s Russia, a country with a rather negative record in terms
of human rights, according to a report released by Human Rights Watch,
violations happen under the cloak of “rhetorical commitments to human rights and
the rule of law.”
Unlike Assad, who cannot fool anyone anymore, Putin can still ride out the
crisis, but he has to make compromises to be able to win the next presidential
elections in June 2012. He knows he cannot ignore the Syrian uprising and cannot
dub the protestors as terrorists. But Putin also knows that he cannot accuse
Assad directly of a disproportionate crackdown on the protests either. Instead,
he has come up with a little distraction to buy him some time: a UN Security
Council resolution draft on Syria which will be discussed, re-discussed,
negotiated, amended and re-amended.
But the West is aware of Putin’s plan. His solidarity with Damascus may have
made Assad feel that he had the protection of Big Brother, but the recent
political whirlpool in Moscow has altered the game plan. If it comes to
sacrificing a friend in the Middle East, leaving him to fight his own domestic
battles to avoid a diplomacy headache, Putin will not hesitate to do it.