LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِMay 31/2011

Biblical Event Of The Day
The Letter from James 3/13-18: "Who is wise and understanding among you? Let him show by his good conduct that his deeds are done in gentleness of wisdom. 3:14 But if you have bitter jealousy and selfish ambition in your heart, don’t boast and don’t lie against the truth. 3:15 This wisdom is not that which comes down from above, but is earthly, sensual, and demonic. 3:16 For where jealousy and selfish ambition are, there is confusion and every evil deed. 3:17 But the wisdom that is from above is first pure, then peaceful, gentle, reasonable, full of mercy and good fruits, without partiality, and without hypocrisy. 3:18 Now the fruit of righteousness is sown in peace by those who make peace."

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Rescuing the foe/By: Hazem al-Amin/May 30/11
Who bombed UNIFIL?
/By: Ana Maria Luca/May 30/11

Change Appears Inevitable In Syria, Analysts Say/By: Michele Kelemen/NPR/May 30/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for May 30/11
Report: Nasrallah Has Held Several Meetings with Assad over Reforms/Naharnet
Several People Arrested in Connection with Attack on UNIFIL/Naharnet
Obama Names General Martin Dempsey Top U.S. Military Official‎/Naharnet
Rifi on al-Adliyeh Incident: I Was Performing My National Duty, Within My Jurisdiction/Naharnet
Berri: Cedar Revolution Set Lebanon Back 60 Years Legally, Demographically/Naharnet
Jumblat: UNIFIL Attack Aimed at Pressuring Participating Countries to Lower Number of Troops/Naharnet
Khalife Denies His Convoy Pelted with Stones: I Was in Beirut All Morning/Naharnet/Naharnet
Miqati Renews Condemnation of UNIFIL Attack: It is Aimed at Destabilizing Lebanon/Naharnet
March 14 to Seek Signature of 20 Ministers as Berri Calls for Parliament Session on June 8/Naharnet
Several People Arrested in Connection with Attack on UNIFIL/Naharnet
Former Tunisian President’s Wife’s Assets in Lebanese Bank Frozen/Naharnet
Heated Debate at Telecom Committee Meeting as it Fails Agree on Investigation /Naharnet
Kuwait busts alleged Iran and Hezbollah spy rings/Gulfnews
Rifi on al-Adliyeh Incident: I Was Performing My National Duty, Within My Jurisdiction/Naharnet
Israel braces for border clashes in coming days/AP
Syrian forces kill 8 during attacks on towns/LAT
US wants Syria reported to UN on nukes/News24
Top UN official says brutality of repression in Syria, Libya is 'shocking'/CP
Syria protests escalate over death of boy/FT
Mikati vows transport plan after Cabinet is formed/Daily Star
Hezbollah denies role in delaying formation of government as deadlock drags on/Daily Star
Rai: Christians always victims in Middle East/Daily Star
Cutting Edge Terrorism Analyst/The cutting Edges
Draft laws in Lebanon fall short on equality/Daily Star
Lebanon getting squeezed by pressure of Arab uprisings/Daily Star
Syria offers to cooperate on nuclear inquiry/The Guardian
Bombing will not affect troop numbers in the south: UNIFIL/Daily Star
Houri: Nahhas intended to give “third mobile network”
to Hezbollah/Now Lebanon
Aridi says Lebanon is heading toward chaos/Ya Libnan
Report: Lebanon Foils Plot to Fire Rockets on Israel/TIP
Restore president powers to pre-Taif: Rai/Daily Star
Irish
Defence Forces send 90 members to UN mission in Lebanon/IE
Berri: Cedar Revolution Set Lebanon Back 60 Years Legally, Demographically Naharne
Jumblat: UNIFIL Attack Aimed at Pressuring Participating Countries to Lower Number of Troops/Naharnet
Miqati Renews Condemnation of UNIFIL Attack: It is Aimed at Destabilizing/Naharnet
Al-Rahi Doesn’t Oppose Amending Taif Accord: Experience Has Revealed Some of its Flaws/Naharnet
March 14 to Seek Signature of 20 Ministers as Berri Calls for Parliament Session on June 8/Naharnet


Al-Rahi Doesn’t Oppose Amending Taif Accord: Experience Has Revealed Some of its Flaws

Naharnet Newsdesk /Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi stated on Monday that he does not oppose amending the Taif Accord “as experience has revealed several of its flaws.”
He said after holding talks with Change and Reform bloc MP Nematallah Abi Nasr: “We don’t mind change and if we needed a new agreement, then why not.”
The patriarch also called for devising a new electoral law, stressing that the law should not be modified to accommodate political leaderships. The president should be granted more privileges, al-Rahi added.

March 14 to Seek Signature of 20 Ministers as Berri Calls for Parliament Session on June

Naharnet Newsdesk /The March 14 forces might resort to adopting a “mobile” draft-law to thwart an attempt by Speaker Nabih Berri to hold a parliamentary session on June 8 to renew the mandate of the Central Bank governor.Berri is seeking to give the parliament executive powers amid an absence of a government and a need to find solutions to pressing issues such as the renewal of Riyad Salameh’s mandate and amnesty for several prisoners. Berri set Wednesday, June 8 as the date for the legislative session “to discuss draft-laws that the parliament bureau would set before the session.” The meeting will be held at 10:30 am, said a brief statement issued by his office. But the March 14 leaderships are seeking to resort to a “mobile” draft-law in the sense that it would be presented to 20 ministers for signature rather than holding a parliamentary session, An Nahar daily said Monday. The leaders discussed the possibility of adopting such a move during a meeting held at Center House last Tuesday, it said. They are expected to hold another meeting headed by former PM Fouad Saniora this week to decide on their next step. But the presence of Caretaker Premier Saad Hariri, who is abroad, is necessary for the approval of the draft-law, An Nahar added.

Rifi on al-Adliyeh Incident: I Was Performing My National Duty, Within My Jurisdiction

Naharnet Newsdesk 2 hours agoInternal Security Forces chief Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi has stressed that he was performing his “national duty” when he dispatched an Intelligence Bureau unit on Thursday to protect the second floor of a building affiliated with the telecom ministry in al-Adliyeh district, Future News television quoted him as saying on Monday.
Rifi described his step as “legal,” stressing that it falls within his jurisdiction. The ISF chief said the issue was blown out of proportion, adding that “what’s happening today resembles what happened concerning the security agreement with the United States and the issue of ‘false witnesses’. It turned out that we were right.” President Michel Suleiman has requested that the justice ministry take legal action against Rifi over his refusal to obey the orders of caretaker Interior Minister Ziad Baroud, who has absolved himself of his duties as a caretaker minister in the wake of the incident. On Thursday, Baroud had ordered Rifi to pull out Intelligence Bureau personnel from the second floor of the building affiliated with the telecom ministry in al-Adliyeh, where OGERO Telecom is in charge of the installations of a third mobile network donated by China to Lebanon according to a cabinet resolution. A dispute erupted on Thursday between caretaker Telecommunications Minister Charbel Nahhas and security forces at the building when the latter denied the minister entry to the second floor of the building.  Nahhas wanted to access the second floor to dismantle the installations of the third GSM network. Lebanon's telecommunications sector has emerged as yet another bone of contention between the country's feuding political camps. Hizbullah and its ally Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun have accused Rifi's police force -- considered close to caretaker premier Saad Hariri -- of using what would be a state-owned network for their personal ends. Lebanon, which has one of the world's priciest telecoms sectors, has two mobile service providers, Alfa and MTC Touch. OGERO Telecom has said the third mobile network is still being tested, but Aoun has raised suspicion that the network is already in use by the Hariri-led camp.
Hizbullah for its part has slammed the ISF intelligence bureau as "the intelligence militia" over the telecoms controversy.

Berri: Cedar Revolution Set Lebanon Back 60 Years Legally, Demographically
Naharnet Newsdesk /Speaker Nabih Berri on Monday expressed his belief that “the Cedar Revolution has set Lebanon back 60 years legally and demographically, squandered public money, and provided the suitable atmosphere for further foreign intervention in Lebanon’s present and future.”“This is the reason behind its failure,” Berri noted in a speech at a ceremony organized by the International Intellectual Conference to honor late Shiite clerics Mohammed Makki al-Jizzini and Zeineddine al-Jabhi. Berri said recent visits to Lebanon by foreign officials were aimed at “using our country as a platform for undermining Syria.” But he went on to say: “We are reassured that the Syrian army knows its national duties regarding the safeguarding of the borders and that Syria does not have a history of sectarian conflict.” “The recent events in Syria have opened the door for a second Corrective Movement that should be led by President Bashar al-Assad,” Berri added. “The political behavior of some parties has made us realize that some people are trying to defy geography and create frontlines in the North with Syria,” Berri said. On a separate note, he stressed that “Shiite Arabs, especially the Lebanese, will not fall into the sectarian trap or be dragged into civil strife.”
“We in Lebanon will be the keenest on national unity and the coexistence formula,” Berri noted.

Jumblat: UNIFIL Attack Aimed at Pressuring Participating Countries to Lower Number of Troops

Naharnet Newsdesk/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat condemned Friday’s attack against the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, wondering whether the timing was connected to “very sensitive” political situation on the internal and regional scenes. He asked in his weekly editorial in the PSP-affiliated al-Anbaa magazine: “Was the attack aimed at pressuring the participating countries in UNFIL to lower the number of troops who have played a major role in implementing U.N. Security Council resolution 1701?”
He chose not to comment on other local developments. Addressing regional developments and Egypt’s decision to open the Rafah crossing between it and the Gaza Strip, Jumblat described it as a major step forward that could help alleviate the Gazans’ plight. On the situation in Yemen, the MP noted: “It seems that the Yemeni president’s stubbornness is aimed at destroying the country and dragging it to civil war and division.

Miqati Renews Condemnation of UNIFIL Attack: It is Aimed at Destabilizing
Naharnet Newsdesk 10 hours agoPrime Minister-designate Najib Miqati condemned on Monday the attack against a U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon on Friday, stressing the important role the Italian contingent plays in the international force. He said after holding talks with Italian Ambassador to Lebanon Giuseppe Morabito: “The attack was primarily aimed at destabilizing Lebanon.” He also hoped that the attack would not affect Italy’s participation in UNIFIL and its ties with Lebanon.

Who bombed UNIFIL?
Ana Maria Luca, /May 30, 2011
For the Italians, the difference between Lebanese Saida and Afghanistan’s Herat in terms of danger to their troops is very slim. After six Italian soldiers, part of the United Nations peacekeeping force in South Lebanon, were injured last Friday in an explosion targeting them in Rmeileh, a few kilometers away from the southern port city, the Italian government gave in to internal political pressure and announced it might reduce its troops.
The Italian contingent is made up of 1,780 soldiers and is the biggest in UNIFIL. Leaders in Rome were discussing reducing their presence in Lebanon even before Friday’s attack, but the incident in Rmeileh created even more agitation in Italy. The 10-kilogram bomb that exploded was set next to a main road junction, hidden in an islet between two lanes, and was detonated by remote control. The UNIFIL truck’s jammer, which sends impulses to diffuse bombs from a distance, didn’t work this time, although it was on, the Italian media reported.
Even though the attack in Saida caused no casualties, it did damage to Lebanon’s relationship with Italy and might lead the country to reduce its troops by a third. Italian Minister of Defense Ignazio la Russa suggested reducing the number of troops from 1,780 to only 1,100, and his proposal was backed by Minister of Foreign Affairs Franco Frattini. “It’s a UN mission, not an Italian one,” Frattini said, referring to the fact that Italy contributes most to UNIFIL’s 12,000 troops.
A joint investigation of the Lebanese army and the Italian military police led to the arrest of five people, three Lebanese and two Palestinians, on Monday. Security sources close to the investigation also stated that “Terrorist organizations who aim to destabilize the security situation in Lebanon and disrupt relations between Lebanon and UNIFIL are behind the attack.” The statement came after a meeting between UNIFIL and the Lebanese security forces.
Italian media and some politicians in Beirut say the incident was Syrian revenge on Europe for the sanctions imposed last week on the regime of President Bashar al-Assad in light of the bloody crackdown on anti-government protesters across the country. According to the Italian daily La Stampa, an intelligence report sent from Beirut to New York had warned that UNIFIL might be targeted following Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem’s statement that “There will be consequences” for the Europeans following the issuing of sanctions. UNIFIL’s spokesperson refused to comment on the La Stampa article and told NOW Lebanon that no information will be disclosed before the end of the investigation.
Many politicians in Beirut also attribute the attack to the Syrian regime. According to Future Movement MP Mustapha Alloush, “When things get complicated between Syria and Europe, it gets complicated [in Lebanon].”
“Usually, some Lebanese parties are used [to incite unrest], and then Syria shows up with a solution,” he told MTV television.
But both Italian government sources and analysts say that speculations on Syria’s involvement in the attack are far-fetched. Italian Minister of Defense Ignazio la Russa also said that the most plausible lead is that the perpetrators belonged to a Salafist group linked to al Qaeda and that there was no proof of Syrian involvement in the incident.
Former UNIFIL spokesperson and international relations analyst Timur Goksel explained that UNIFIL’s soldiers have always been a soft target for whoever wants to send a message to West European countries, because it has a deep emotional impact on public opinion. “I don’t agree with the theory of Syria’s involvement in the attack. I think it is more likely to have been an attack against Western military, as vengeance for the death of Osama Bin Laden,” he told NOW Lebanon.
“It is not a very professional attack. If the Syrians had been involved in this, they would have had access to technology which would have been more damaging. The location also suggests that it was somebody from the Saida area. My first reaction was that it must be one of the small religious groups that must make a point against the Western countries,” he added.
In the wake of the attack, the Italians’ intention is to pressure other countries to contribute troops to the peacekeeping force in Lebanon and lessen the pressure and cost on the Italian Ministry of Defense. The Italian government has been under pressure by rightist parties to completely withdraw their troops from Lebanon, after the League of the North already asked for a special meeting of the General Affairs Council to evaluate if it is appropriate to keep a permanent mission in certain “war theaters.” According to Goksel, this is a normal reaction in a Western European country where public opinion matters in terms of government. But even so, the Italian government will not withdraw their entire contingent from UNIFIL. “Completely withdrawing would be a mistake,” Italian Defense Minister La Russa said.

Rescuing the foe

Hazem al-Amin,
May 30, 2011
According to some not-so-reassuring indicators, the March 8 forces are likely to make an offer to the March 14 coalition regarding the formation of the cabinet after they failed to form it themselves. This offer, if and when it is made, is not so reassuring because accepting it would be a major gift allowing the March 8 forces to catch their breath in the aftermath of domestic and regional failures. Yet this is but a trivial thing compared to the major loss the March 14 coalition would incur if it were to accept the offer that would be part of a regional deal, according to many rumors. And God only knows who would pay the price for it then.
The offer is not so reassuring because we are not certain that the March 14 forces are immune and wise enough not to be tempted by it. It’s been said that power is inexperience, and we all know that the March 14 coalition is not the master of its own choices, especially if such choices are part of some regional drive.
As a result, the Lebanese would miss several opportunities, some of which are summarized hereunder:
1 – There is an opportunity to score a precedent represented by the ruling of a slight majority. Indeed, the need for entrusting the formation of the cabinet to the party that wins the elections should be a constant principle in politics, especially following the resounding failure of the so-called national-unity governments.
2 – The idea of swapping the premiership for the parliament speaker’s position should be avoided, as it consolidates a majority-rule formula that would have to be implemented with regard to the premiership.
3 – The fact that the opposition in parliament is not represented in the cabinet helps to exert a genuine monitoring of the cabinet performance, especially given the slight advantage the majority has over the minority, which makes the latter’s objection even more valuable and provides multiple monitoring channels.
These reasons involve all the Lebanese, but more reasons still imply that the March 14 coalition necessarily has an interest in allowing the March 8 forces to form the cabinet, as summarized in the following:
A March 8 cabinet is almost certainly doomed to a performance as poor as that of the process leading to its formation. First and foremost, it would be a Hezbollah cabinet, and this entails regional and international pressure on the political, economic and diplomatic levels. Second, the cabinet would have to face the indictment to be issued by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. PM-designate Najib Mikati already said that he would abide by the Dar Al-Fatwa statement in this respect, whereas Hezbollah is expecting some other stance from him on this issue. In that case, either a clash between Hezbollah and the prime minister it designated is likely, or Mikati will not abide by the commitments he made in Dar Al-Fatwa, which would be detrimental to him. An offer will very likely be made to the March 14 coalition regarding the formation of the cabinet, not only because of the March 8 forces’ resounding failure to form it on its own, but also because of the events in the only regional country sponsoring Mikati’s cabinet, as some early signs seem to be indicating.
If the March 14 coalition were to accept this offer, it would be taking part in an operation to rescue a foe faced with domestic failure and blocked regional prospects. It would be yet another failure to abide by the promise it made to its public regarding issues it now refers to as postulates, particularly illegitimate weapons, which will not be included in a potential cabinet deal.
Accepting the offer would not only be rescuing its foes: This would be political suicide.


Report: Nasrallah Has Held Several Meetings with Assad over Reforms

Naharnet Newsdesk 14 hours agoHizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has held more than one meeting with Syrian President Bashar Assad to discuss reform in Syria, al-Akhbar daily reported Monday. The newspaper did not say when the talks were held. It quoted Assad as saying that he did not need encouragement to go ahead with planned reforms. Steps needed to implement the reforms are linked with his efforts to confront some countries who are attempting to topple the Syrian regime over his ties with Hizbullah, he reportedly said. Assad rejects to hear messages that he should give up his support for Hizbullah, al-Akhbar added.

Several People Arrested in Connection with Attack on UNIFIL

Naharnet Newsdesk 12 hours agoFive people, including 3 Lebanese and 2 Palestinians, were arrested in connection with the roadside bombing that targeted a UNIFIL convoy in southern Lebanon last week, Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5) said Monday. Al-Liwaa daily quoted security sources as saying that police questioned witnesses and arrested several people to unveil the culprits behind the bombing that left six Italian peacekeepers injured on Friday. Nobody has yet claimed responsibility for the explosion which occurred at the entrance to the southern port city of Sidon. The attack has also wounded two passers-by. The last bomb attack on peacekeepers was in January 2008, when a roadside bomb struck a U.N. vehicle traveling along the coastal highway south of Beirut, lightly wounding two Irish peacekeepers. Diplomatic sources told As Safir newspaper that Friday’s bombing was similar to the attack on the Irish troops. They expressed belief that the target was UNIFIL in general and not the Italian contingent in particular given that patrols only hoist U.N. flags. Every time UNIFIL is attacked, unknown assailants fire rockets at Israel, they said. The sources unveiled that the Lebanese army foiled an attempt to fire rockets at the Jewish state two days before the attack on the Italian peacekeepers. They also told As Safir that during the last tripartite meeting at Naqoura, Israel warned that Sunni extremist groups at the Palestinian refugee camp of Ain el-Hilweh were planning to attack U.N. troops, the Lebanese army and Hizbullah.  The investigation is moving forward given the expertise of Lebanese investigators and the Italian military team that is taking part in the probe along with UNIFIL

Obama Names General Martin Dempsey Top U.S. Military Official‎

Naharnet Newsdesk/U.S. President Barack Obama announced Army General Martin Dempsey as his choice to succeed Admiral Mike Mullen as chairman of the military Joint Chiefs of Staff Monday, rounding out an overhaul of his national security team in his third year in office. Marine Gen. James Cartwright had long been rumored to be Obama's favorite, and the president singled him out for praise at Monday's Rose Garden announcement. But he turned instead to Dempsey, an accomplished veteran of the Iraq war, to succeed Mullen.
Obama called Dempsey "one of our nation's most respected and combat-tested generals." The president also announced he has chosen Navy Adm. James Winnefeld to succeed Cartwright as vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs and Army Gen. Ray Odierno as his candidate to replace Dempsey as Army chief of staff. The nominees have to be approved by the Senate, and Obama voiced hope that could happen in a timely fashion. Obama called America's servicemen and women "the best our nation has to offer, and they deserve nothing but the best in return, and that includes leaders." The president immediately headed to venerable Arlington National Cemetery to lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknowns and to pay respects to all who have been killed in war. The president earlier this month decided to send CIA Director Leon Panetta to the Pentagon to succeed Robert Gates as defense secretary and chose Afghanistan war commander Gen. David Petraeus to replace Panetta at the CIA. Both of those men, too, will need to be confirmed by the Senate. Dempsey began a four-year term as Army chief of staff on April 11.
Appearing in a nationally broadcast interview Monday morning, Mullen said he's encouraged that the Pakistani government is launching a major offensive on militants in the North Waziristan area near the border with Pakistan. "It's a very important fight and a very important operation," he said. Mullen also said he has perceived strong support among the American people for American servicemen and women and said he's grateful for that. He said he doesn't want to see a "disconnect" between the uniformed men and women and the population at large.
Asked if a change of guard at the Joint Chiefs means a change of strategy in Afghanistan, he replied, "We obviously have added these forces ... and we've really seen progress on the security side. ... We will sustain losses as we have in the last few days. ... That said, I am confident that by the end of the year, we'll be in a much, much better position."
He said he hopes the public understands "the depth of sacrifice" made by servicemen and women. Mullen appeared on ABC's "Good Morning America," CBS's "The Early Show" and NBC's "Today" show. Source Associated Press

Heated Debate at Telecom Committee Meeting as it Fails Agree on Investigation

Naharnet Newsdesk 5 hours agoThe parliamentary telecommunications committee held a meeting on Monday to discuss the suggestion to form a specialized technical team to determine what is located on the second floor of a Telecommunications Ministry building at Adliyeh, revealed the head of the committee MP Hasan Fadlallah. He said during a press conference after a heated committee session at parliament: “A dispute erupted over who has the authority to appoint an Ogero Telecom member in the technical team.” He explained that caretaker Telecommunications Minister Charbel Nahhas insisted that he has the authority to make the appointment. “A final decision has not been made to form the team because of the dispute over it,” he added. The MP stated that the discussions focused on who should be held responsible for the Internal Security Forces Intelligence Bureau “rebellion” against the Interior and Telecommunications Ministers. They also centered on whether Ogero had committed a violation in installing the third GSM network, as well as the functioning of the network itself and for whom it works for. Fadlallah stated: “An investigation will be launched in all the aspects of the case even if it means holding another session for the parliamentary telecommunications committee.”  “We want to know the truth behind the network,” he stressed. “Nahhas should form the technical team,” he added. March 8 has accused state-run Ogero of running the network outside the legal authorities and for “suspicious objectives,” reported the daily An Nahar on Monday. A dispute erupted on Thursday when ISF chief Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi refused to abide by the orders of Caretaker Interior Minister Ziad Baroud to vacate the Adliyeh building. He ordered the Information Branch to control the facility and ban an attempt by Nahhas from relocating the facility’s equipment.



Change Appears Inevitable In Syria, Analysts Say
by Michele Kelemen/NPR
http://www.npr.org/2011/05/30/136727264/change-appears-inevitable-in-syria-analysts-say
May 30, 2011
of Arab League headquarters in Cairo.
 May 30, 2011
U.N. Security Council diplomats have been studying a draft resolution condemning Syria for its deadly crackdown on demonstrators protesting the rule of President Bashar Assad. As the crisis drags on and the Security Council weighs its options, U.S. policymakers are trying to plan for what might come next. In Washington, there is a growing sense that Assad's rule is coming to an end.
So far, the U.S. and its partners have been unable to get the Security Council to condemn the violence. The resolution under consideration was drafted by Britain and other countries, but diplomats are trying to persuade Russia not to block it.
For now, this division plays into the hands of Assad, says Murhaf Jouejati, a Syrian-born professor of Middle East studies at the National Defense University.
"The Assad regime knows full well that there are divisions in the Security Council. They know that the U.S. will not intervene militarily in Syria. They know that there is going to be opposition in the Security Council by Russia and by China to condemn Syria," Jouejati says. "If things, I think, were held equal today, the Assad regime will survive, but it's not going to be able to survive for very long."
'Lost Legitimacy'
Jouejati says the political and economic costs of the crackdown are rising quickly, and he thinks there's no going back.
"The Assad regime has lost credibility, it has lost legitimacy, and what is going to be needed for it to fall is really a pincer movement between the international community and [the] domestic society that is in an uprising against the regime," Jouejati says.
There is a growing sense among Syria experts that change is inevitable. At least, that was the mood among analysts gathered for a recent discussion at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Tamara Wittes, the deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, represented the U.S. government there.
"One way or another, change is coming. And it's very important for us, all of us, therefore, to focus on how that's going to happen. Because how it happens is as important — in fact, in some ways at this point, more important — than when. Change is inevitable," Wittes said.
U.S. Strategy
So the U.S. needs to start making plans, says Andrew Tabler of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
"The U.S. has to think about a strategy for bringing about what kind of government it would like to see in Syria after the Assads go," Tabler says. "This might not be something that happens right away; this will take a lot of time. But there's a general agreement that while the Assad regime is not at a tipping point, it is on a downward trajectory and we all have to prepare for that."
Tabler says the Obama administration also recognizes another key point when it comes to Syria.
"The Assad regime is not an ally of the United States. In fact, it's an ally of Iran, so this is a golden opportunity to be on good terms with the incoming powers."
Tabler thinks the U.S. can do more to help opposition figures get organized and counter Internet restrictions. The U.S. should also continue to try to squeeze the Assad regime financially, he says.
So far President Obama has stopped short of saying Assad must go. But his recent speech on the Middle East came awfully close, at least to the ears of Ammar Abdulhamid, a U.S.-based Syrian opposition activist:
"When they give [Assad] a choice between lead democratic transition or, sort of, get out of the way, they really mean get out of the way either with some dignity or without dignity. So in a sense, they are pressing for complete change and overhaul of the system," he says.
Abdulhamid and other opposition figures plan to meet in Turkey later this week to try to get better organized and lobby the West for a tougher response.

US wants Syria reported to UN on nukes
2011-05-30 /News24
Syria was building reactor - UN agency
Vienna - The United States will ask the UN atomic watchdog to report Syria to the UN Security Council over its alleged illicit nuclear activity, according to a draft resolution obtained by AFP on Monday.
At a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) board of governors next week, Washington will urge member states to report Syria to the Security Council, despite an apparent pledge by Damascus to break a three-and-a-half-year silence over its alleged nuclear ambitions.
"We are aware that the Syrian government has sent a letter to the IAEA regarding the agency's long-standing requests for full Syrian co-operation," the US Charge d'Affaires in Vienna, Robert Wood, wrote in restricted letter circulated to member states last Friday.
"Such co-operation indeed would be welcome, but would not have any bearing on the finding of non-compliance or the board's responsibilities with regard to that finding."
Washington has drawn up a resolution for adoption by the IAEA's 35-member board of governors next week finding Syria in so-called "non-compliance" with its international obligations and calling on watchdog chief Yukiya Amano to report this non-compliance to the UN Security Council in New York.
The last time a member state was reported to the UN Security Council was Iran in September 2005.
"We believe that board action... is critical for preserving the credibility of the IAEA and the safeguards system in light of Syria's continued stonewalling of the agency's investigation," the letter said.
IAEA not convinced
The United S has long argued the Syrian nuclear dossier should be sent to New York because of Damascus's stubborn refusal to answer allegations it was building an undeclared nuclear reactor at a remote desert site called Dair Alzour until it was bombed by Israeli aircraft in September 2007.
In the latest report on the matter last week, the IAEA - clearly frustrated with Syria's stonewalling - decided to state publicly for the first time that all the evidence suggested the building was indeed a nuclear reactor.
Damascus has always denied the allegations and said Dair Alzour was a non-nuclear military installation, but provided no evidence so far to back this up.
The IAEA, for its part, is not convinced.
And in its toughest-ever report since starting its probe in 2008, it concluded that "based on all the information available to the agency and its technical evaluation of that information, the agency assesses that it is very likely that the building destroyed at the Dair Alzour site was a nuclear reactor which should have been declared to the agency".
Western diplomats said IAEA chief Amano has sent a note to member states indicating that Syria has said it is now ready to "fully co-operate with the agency".
The diplomats said they saw it as a move by Damascus to avoid a referral to the UN Security Council in New York.
- AFP