LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِMay 20/2011

Biblical Event Of The Day
Luke 04/31-44: " He came down to Capernaum, a city of Galilee. He was teaching them on the Sabbath day, 4:32 and they were astonished at his teaching, for his word was with authority. 4:33 In the synagogue there was a man who had a spirit of an unclean demon, and he cried out with a loud voice, 4:34 saying, “Ah! what have we to do with you, Jesus of Nazareth? Have you come to destroy us? I know you who you are: the Holy One of God!” 4:35 Jesus rebuked him, saying, “Be silent, and come out of him!” When the demon had thrown him down in their midst, he came out of him, having done him no harm. 4:36 Amazement came on all, and they spoke together, one with another, saying, “What is this word? For with authority and power he commands the unclean spirits, and they come out!” 4:37 News about him went out into every place of the surrounding region.  4:38 He rose up from the synagogue, and entered into Simon’s house. Simon’s mother-in-law was afflicted with a great fever, and they begged him for her. 4:39 He stood over her, and rebuked the fever; and it left her. Immediately she rose up and served them. 4:40 When the sun was setting, all those who had any sick with various diseases brought them to him; and he laid his hands on every one of them, and healed them. 4:41 Demons also came out from many, crying out, and saying, “You are the Christ, the Son of God!” Rebuking them, he didn’t allow them to speak, because they knew that he was the Christ. 4:42 When it was day, he departed and went into an uninhabited place, and the multitudes looked for him, and came to him, and held on to him, so that he wouldn’t go away from them. 4:43 But he said to them, “I must preach the good news of the Kingdom of God to the other cities also. For this reason I have been sent.” 4:44 He was preaching in the synagogues of Galilee

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
An end to the Syria pipe dream/By: Tony Badran/May 19/11
The old bear of the Assad regime is falling/By: Ali al-Hajj/May 19/11
European Union will sharply expand Iran sanctions, diplomats say/Reuters/May 19/11
Syria: Working From An Old Play Book/By: Wayne E. White/May 19/11
Syria Christians fear for religious freedom/JPost.com/Middle East/May 19/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for May 19/11
Change cannot be denied,’ Obama says in speech on the Middle East/Globe and Mail 
Israeli Hunt for Syrian, Hizballah spies who slipped in through Golan/DEBKAfile
Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai says Christian gathering to be held in June/Now Lebanon
We will judge the Lebanese cabinet based on its policies, says British official/Now Lebanon
What US sanctions mean for Assad and Syria's crackdown/CSM
Syria and the region: What happens if Assad goes?/The Economist
Egyptian Copts extend protest over churches/Now Lebanon
New EU sanctions target over 100 Iranian firms/Now Lebanon
UN chief says Arab leaders doing too little, too late/Now Lebanon
'Savage beatings' in Syria prisons: released journalist/AFP
Activist: Clashes in Syrian western town kill 8/Agencies
SYRIA: Assad regime denounces sanctions, says they serve Israel/LAT
IMF Chief Resigns Ahead OF Bail Hearing; Syria Condemns US Sanctions/NPR
FIFA says Syria unsafe to host football matches/AlArabiya
Fatfat warns of military intervention by Syria in Lebanon/Daily Star
Syrian buses transported Palestinians to Lebanon-Israel borders/Ya Libnan
Regional turbulence adds to urgency to solve Palestinian issue/Xinhua
Verbal war between Aoun, Mikati escalates/Ya Libnan
Lebanon's Arabic press digest - May 19, 2011/Daily Star
Making gasoline policy by telephone/Daily Star
Feltman Heads to Lebanon to Meet Suleiman, Berri, Miqati/Naharnet
Anti-Sectarian System Activists Protest Fuel Prices Rise Near Parliament/Naharnet
Suleiman Praises Agreement with Transport Unions/Naharnet
Omar Karami Undergoes Medical Checkups at AUH/Naharnet
Williams Calls for Speeding up Formation of Government Capable of Overcoming Instability/Naharnet
Wahhab Confident in Syrian Army's Capabilities, Vows to Fight to Protect Syria/Naharnet
Aoun's Bloc Nearing Decision to End Miqati's Nomination/Naharnet
Nasrallah to Make Television Appearance on Liberation Day/Naharnet
Miqati Meets Berri, New Cabinet Initiative in the Making/Naharnet
Ghosn Calls for Comprehensive Strike over Deteriorating Economic Situation/Naharnet
UNIFIL Reportedly Mulls Ways to Limit Impact of Violence but Denies Change in Rules of Engagement/Naharnet
Strike Halted as al-Hasan Decides to Give Drivers Free 12 and Half Gasoline Jerry Cans Monthly/Naharnet
Azouri to Challenge 2 Articles in Fransen Ruling on Releasing Documents to Sayyed/Naharnet

Change cannot be denied,’ Obama says in speech on the Middle East
Paul Koring /Globe and Mail Update
Thursday, May. 19, 2011
Increase text size Unveiling a sweeping vision of an Arab world transformed by uprisings against ruthless dictators and the stirrings of democracy, U.S. President Barack Obama says “change cannot be denied.” In a major policy speech timed to reach the Middle East, the president warned that change would be fitful, sometimes violent and difficult, but promised that American would champion change and human rights. H said the throngs of protesters in the Arab Spring uprisings that have already toppled dictators in Tunisia and Egypt and threatened to oust others have “achieved more in six months than terrorists have accomplished in decades.” America’s role, he said, would be to support democracy. He promised aid and support to Tunisia and Egypt and welcomed plans for early elections.
He condemned Libya’s ruthless dictator Col. Moammar Gadhafi, accusing him of waging war against his own people. “In Libya, we saw the prospect of imminent massacre, had a mandate for action, and heard the Libyan people's call for help,” so we acted along with our NATO partners, Mr. Obama said. However, he made clear that military intervention was not a precedent and was unlikely to be repeated.
He also offered a stark choice to Syria’s President Bashar Assad, saying "he can lead that transition, or get out of the way." It was his toughest challenge yet to the Syrian leader, who initially promised reform but has since sent tanks and troops into cities – leaving an estimated 1,000 dead and thousands imprisoned or arrested.
“So far, Syria has followed its Iranian ally” Mr. Obama said in the speech televised around the globe. President Assad has “chosen the path of murder.”
In a marked departure with previous American policy which, since the Second World War, has backed Arab rulers no matter how ruthless as long as they were allied with and friendly to the United States, the president said principle would drive policy.
“After decades of accepting the world as it is, in the region, we have a chance to pursue the world as it should be,” Mr. Obama said, nearly two years after he made his 'new beginnings' speech in Cairo.
But he also said that the United States could support but not dictate the outcome of change sweeping the Middle East. "We must proceed with a sense of humility,” the president said. "It is not America that put people into the streets of Tunis and Cairo - it was the people themselves who launched these movements, and must determine their outcome.”
On the vexed issue of Palestinian-Israeli peace, the president repeated his longstanding call for a two-state solution and reaffirmed America’s unwavering support for Israel. But there was no indication of a major new push to re-start moribund peace talks and no offer of a summit.
More broadly, Mr. Obama promised that his government would back reform throughout the region, if they were peaceful. "Even as we acknowledge that each country is different, we will need to speak honestly about the principles that we believe in, with friend and foe alike. Our message is simple: If you take the risks that reform entails, you will have the full support of the United States." It was unclear whether the president was prepared to take a hard line with key allies and oil suppliers - like Saudi Arabia - which, so far, have crushed even tentative pro-democracy efforts, both at home and in neighboring Bahrain. The Middle East will continue to take centre stage in Washington this week. Mr. Obama imposed sanctions on Syria’s president on Wednesday and urged Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to sign a pact that would end his decades of rule. He met with Jordan's King Abdullah, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is to arrived on Friday. This weekend, the president will make another major speech to a powerful Israel lobby group.

Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai says Christian gathering to be held in June
May 19, 2011 /Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai on Thursday said that a large Christian political gathering will be hosted in Bkirki on June 2, the National News Agency (NNA) reported. The meeting was agreed upon with Christian political leaders and will discuss the debated issues , the NNA quoted al-Rai as saying. Kataeb Party leader Amin Gemayel, Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and Marada Movement leader MP Sleiman Franjieh attended a gathering at Bkirki on April 19 that was chaired by Rai. The Maronite Patriarch also called for the fast formation of the cabinet. Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati has not yet formed his cabinet despite reports last week that President Michel Sleiman and Aoun had agreed on the nomination of three candidates for the Interior Ministry portfolio, which has been reportedly delaying cabinet formation.
-NOW Lebanon

We will judge the Lebanese cabinet based on its policies, says British official
May 19, 2011 /British government spokesperson Martin Day said on Thursday that that his government will deal with any upcoming cabinet in Lebanon based on its policies. “Any upcoming cabinet in [Lebanon] should implement its international commitments and strengthen Lebanese sovereignty,” Day told Voice of Lebanon (100.5) radio. “We want the formation of a Lebanese government which can gain trust and implement its commitments towards the international community, especially by supporting the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL),” he added. The British official added that the STL is not politicized but is an independent institution, calling on all countries to respect its independence. Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati has not yet formed his cabinet despite reports last week that President Michel Sleiman and Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun had agreed on the nomination of three candidates for the Interior Ministry portfolio, which has been reportedly delaying cabinet formation. Saad Hariri’s unity cabinet collapsed after the resignation of Syrian-Iranian backed March 8’s ministers amid a controversy over the STL and false witnesses.-NOW Lebanon

Egyptian Copts extend protest over churches
May 19, 2011 /Egypt's Coptic Christians extended a 12-day protest meant to end on Thursday, complaining the government failed to live up to a pledge to reopen all churches that had been closed. The sit-in demonstration in Cairo was prolonged after the Copts said they got word that the license for one church had been delayed, and that hardline Islamists were surrounding another. Media reports had on Thursday quoted a priest as saying the Christians would end their sit-in outside the government's television building after refusing to budge since March 8, even after being attacked by Muslims at the weekend. The protestors were taking down their tents when a priest told them a government worker was delaying the permit for the church in Maghagha, in Minya province. Copts make up roughly 10 percent of the country's 80-million people and they complain of state-sanctioned discrimination, including a law that requires presidential permission for church construction. They have also been the targets of frequent attacks, the deadliest in January when a suicide bomber killed at least 20 people outside an Alexandria church. -AFP/NOW Lebanon

Israeli Hunt for Syrian, Hizballah spies who slipped in through Golan
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 19, 2011,
Army and security services have fanned out across the West Bank in search of between five and eight Syria and Hizballah secret agents believed to have slipped across the Syrian-Israeli Golan border under cover of the Palestinian mob incursion of May 15. debkafile's counter-terror sources report that Israel intelligence believes Hamas and Hizballah clandestine West Bank terror cells were standing by to drive the infiltrators straight to hideouts where false identities awaited them. Such cells are mostly held dormant for extreme military situations such as conflagrations on Israel's borders with Syria, Lebanon or the Gaza Strip.
It is assumed that the new infiltrators will be activated when Syrian President Bashar Assad strikes again
in keeping with the threat from Damascus that unless the West backs off from supporting the protest against his regime, "instability in Syria would cause instability in Israel."
Wednesday, the Obama administration intensified its pressure on Assad by sanctioning him for the first time in person along with six heads of his regime. European governments promise to follow. Syriaa nd Hizballah are not known to have ever managed a group penetration of secret agents before. Any single operatives sneaking in from Syria in the past have usually taken the Wadi Harmiyeh smuggling route from Golan to the West Bank town of Ramallah. The northern sections of this dry waterway are too narrow, twisting and dark for electronic sensors to pick up suspicious movements.
However, the massive trampling of the Syrian-Israeli Golan border on May 15 gave the Syrian and Hizballah spies the chance to drive comfortably down Israeli highways to their hideouts.
The way the penetration was organized attested to the close collaboration between Syrian military intelligence, Hizballah's special security apparatus and the armed branches of the radical Hamas and Ahmed Jibril's PFLP-General Command. Each had a part to play in the mass assault on Israel's borders: Hizballah arranged a Palestinian demonstration opposite the Lebanese-Israeli frontier, Jibril helped round up hundreds of Palestinians for smashing into Majd al Shams, while Hamas staged a mass march on the Gaza-Israel border.
Catching the IDF unready to cope with extreme pressure on three fronts has encouraged these extremist forces to follow through quickly and exploit the perceived Israeli weakness before the IDF comes up with a cure for defending its borders against mass civilian assault that does not entail shooting hundreds of unarmed people. Western intelligence sources do not think a cure will be easy to find.
Information reaching IDF intelligence indicates that Syria has is preparing its next civilian assault on the Israeli border for June 5, which marks the 44th anniversary of the Six Day War and the delineation of new borders. The Syrians are again working hand in glove with Hizballah and the same Palestinian rejectionists to stage additional offensives for June 7, Israel's Shavuot festival and the anniversary of Jerusalem's liberation and reunification. The fundamentalist Hamas is not waiting: It has used Facebook to call on thousands of Palestinians to assemble at the Erez crossing Friday, May 20 and smash through the Gaza-Israeli border on the Majd al Shams model. Our sources say this is a red herring to misdirect Israeli commanders in the same way as the Syrians planted a false lead to Kuneitra and staged their break-in at Majd al-Shams. In fact, the attempts to breach the Gaza fence will occur somewhere else or in several places on the assumption that the IDF has not recovered from the May 15 events and lacks the trained manpower and crowd control gear for breaking up a raging mob. Hamas hopes to present the spectacle as part of the Arab Revolt against tyrannical regimes and so gloss over a hostile act of war against a sovereign state.

Iran Behind Israel Border Clashes
Tuesday, 17 May 2011 12:13 PM
By Ken Timmerman
The Iranian regime called the political leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah to Tehran last month, to work out the details of an unprecedented series of protests they wanted them to launch along Israel’s border on the anniversary of Israel’s founding in 1948, according to Iranian dissidents. The meetings were an overwhelming success. Thousands of Palestinians took place in organized protests, storming across mine fields and border fences into Israel from the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, and Syria. Israel troops opened fire on the demonstrators, killing five protestors along the border with Syria and 10 along the border with Lebanon. Thirteen Israeli soldiers were wounded in the clashes. The meetings last month in Tehran between senior Iranian government officials and Hamas and Hezbollah leaders came to the attention of Iranian dissidents through their sources inside the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
“We initially thought they had come for some kind of military training, but then our people told us it was the political leadership that had come,” said Hossein Zohari, spokesman for the Organization of Iranian People's Fedaii Guerrillas, a left-wing opposition group. “The Iranians had sent IRGC intelligence officers to Syria and Lebanon to invite these people to Tehran” well before the border clashes. “This shows that Iran was deeply involved in planning and coordinating of these attacks,” Zohari told Newsmax in an interview.
Walid Phares, a Middle East analyst, said the coordination of the attacks was a clear sign of Iranian involvement. “The three fronts that moved at the same time are all backed by Iranian assets or Iranian allies, Hamas and Hezbollah. Even the Palestinian factions that organized the thrust on the Golan are controlled by Damascus and the Iranian regime. The regional connection of all these forces is the IRGC.”
Phares believes that Iran is desperate to protect Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. “If Assad goes down, Iran's reach to Lebanon will be severely restrained. It is a strategic goal for Iran to help Assad by deflecting attention from the uprising inside Syria to a clash with Israel,” he told Newsmax.
Former IRGC officer Reza Kahlili, who worked as a spy for the CIA inside Iran for more than a decade, told Newsmax that the Iranian leadership was seeking to “turn up the heat on every front” in the region.
The border attacks on Sunday “were part of a larger plan to increase the pressure on Israel, protect Syrian president Assad, and to assert Iran’s dominance as the leader of the revolutionary forces in the region,” Kahlili said.
The Iranian regime is “itching for a fight with both Israel and the United States,” Kahlili believes.
Last month, on Iran’s orders, Hamas launched a series of rocket attacks that hit targets deeper in Israel than ever before. “They were trying to provoke an Israel reaction, but the Israelis didn’t respond. The Iranians said that Israel was being ‘besieged by Muslim anger,’” Kahlili said.
Israel’s military spokesman, Brig. Gen. Yoav Mordechai, told Israel’s Channel 2 TV that he saw “fingerprints of Iranian provocation and an attempt to use ‘Naqbah day’ to create conflict.”
The Arab states refer to the founding of the state of Israel as “al-Naqbah,” or “the Catastrophe.” Even the Palestinian Authority, which the United States believes wants to live side by side with the Jewish state — uses the term and sponsors riots to protest Israel’s founding every year.
The Syrian authorities used Palestinians from refugee camps all across the country so they could take part in the demonstrations along the border with Israel.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had ordered the military to act with “maximum restraint,” but that Israel would not tolerate further incursions across its border.
In Tehran, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the clashes showed Israel’s real nature. “Like a cancer cell that spreads through the body, this regime infects any region. It must be removed from the body,” he said.
Canadian parliamentarian Irwin Cotler calls such comments “incitement to genocide,” and has introduced legislation in Canada to refer Ahmadinejad to the World Court for violating the International Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.
Also today, a flotilla of small ships left the southern Iranian port of Bushehr heading for Bahrain, according to Iranian news reports.
Former IRGC officer Kahlili tells Newsmax that his sources inside the Guards revealed that the Bahrain flotilla was carrying “martyrdom forces,” members of the Guard and its Bassij militia who had been trained to carry out suicide attacks.
Iran and Saudi Arabia are engaged in a giant power struggle that is playing itself out all across the region, Kahlili believes. “They are fighting through proxies, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and Syria,” he said.
© Newsmax. All rights reserved.

European Union will sharply expand Iran sanctions, diplomats say
By REUTERS /05/19/2011 16:02 /100 companies are expected to be added to sanctions list, including Germany's European-Iranian Trade Bank, to target nuclear program.
BRUSSELS - The European Union is expected to expand its sanctions significantly against Iran on Monday, reflecting growing frustration among Western powers with a lack of progress in nuclear talks with Tehran, EU diplomats said.The EU's 27 governments are expected to approve the addition of around 100 companies to the bloc's embargo list -- including German-based bank EIH, which specialises in business in Iran -- at a meeting in Brussels.
"There is a list of about a 100 companies, to be added to the EU sanctions on Monday," one EU diplomat told Reuters on Thursday.
Another added: "Among those companies is the European Iranian ... Bank," he said, referring to EIH (Europaeisch-Iranische Handelsbank or European-Iranian Trade Bank).
"There would now be enough evidence that the bank financed companies involved in Iran's nuclear program."
Western powers say they suspect Iran is trying to develop atomic weapons under the cover of its declared civilian nuclear energy programme. Tehran says it needs nuclear power to meet a growing domestic demand for electricity. The West has tried to convince Iran to suspend the program in return for trade and technology, but talks have ground to a halt.
The EU's foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, expressed her frustration on Tuesday at the lack of progress in negotiations with Tehran.
Ashton said after meetings with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton where they discussed the matter that the EU had wished for a "stronger and better" reply from Iran to her call to revive the talks, and said there appeared little room for new negotiations for now. "I do urge Iran to think again and to consider coming back to the table. In terms of Iran, I would like to say there will be a new round of talks. But from the letters that I've received, I don't see that at the present time," Ashton said at the time.

UN chief says Arab leaders doing too little, too late
May 19, 2011 /Arab leaders faced by uprisings this year have always come out with too little, too late, UN chief Ban Ki-moon said in an interview with AFP on Wednesday.
Ban said he has urged Syria's President Bashar al-Assad to carry out reforms "before it is too late,” and that he hoped for a ceasefire in Libya but that the humanitarian crisis there is worsening. Leaders confronted by the Arab spring uprisings must make concessions to have any hope of "winning the hearts and minds of people," he said. "If you look at all the situations happening across the Arab world and North Africa, there is one common desire: that is genuine freedom.” "People have been oppressed under authoritarian rule for the past three or four decades. Now they believe that it is high time for rights to be respected and their aspirations to be heard." Ban told AFP last week how he has argued with the Syrian president during their telephone conversations. "Why do you keep calling me?" he quoted Assad as saying. On top of the telephone conversations with Assad and meetings with Syria's UN ambassador, Ban said in the interview how he had also tried to meet other regional leaders who could influence the Syrian president. "I have been urging president Assad to engage in dialogue and before it is too late, try to take bold and decisive measures to meet the expectations of people.” In Libya, Ban said the aim was to achieve an immediate and verifiable ceasefire. The UN chief said that his special envoy to Libya, Abdul Illah al-Khatib has been "working very hard" but he had no progress to report from efforts to sway Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi.-AFP/NOW Lebanon

New EU sanctions target over 100 Iranian firms
May 19, 2011 /The European Union on Thursday agreed to sanction more than 100 Iranian companies, sharply expanding existing measures against Iran over its disputed nuclear program.
Diplomats said the "significant expansion" in EU sanctions was expected to be approved and announced Monday by the bloc's 27 foreign ministers. Among the firms blacklisted are a German-based Iranian-owned bank believed to be involved in the Islamic republic's secret nuclear weapons' program, the European-Iranian Trade Bank (EIH).
An official in Berlin told AFP this week that "evidence pointing to the EIH's involvement in (nuclear) proliferation has multiplied and become tangible."
Five individuals are also to be hit by the new sanctions, diplomats said. Citing unnamed Western officials, the Wall Street Journal last year said the EIH bank had done more than a billion dollars of business on behalf of firms subject to US, UN and EU sanctions. In June last year, the UN Security Council slapped a fourth set of sanctions against Iran for refusing to halt its uranium enrichment work, the most sensitive part of Tehran's atomic drive.-AFP/NOW Lebanon

An end to the Syria pipe dream
Tony Badran, May 19, 2011 /Now Lebanon/
US President Barack Obama has to formulate an entirely new Syria policy. The Obama administration has finally imposed sanctions on Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. President Obama is also expected to address the situation in Syria in his major speech today. Should he call on Assad to step down, as many in the US have pressed the president to do, his administration will have completed a crucial step in its policy turnaround on Syria after two months of hesitation.
In effect, the administration’s move announces that the policy of engagement with Assad is officially over. A new policy is now required to manage the transition to a post-Assad Syria. However, such a shift requires more assertive leadership. For even now, the administration’s messaging remains somewhat dissonant, requiring more clarity and coherence, which have been sorely lacking over the past two months. The reversal of Washington’s approach appeared somewhat sudden. Barely two weeks ago, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was still repeating her talking point about Assad having “an opportunity still to bring about a reform agenda.” Then on Tuesday, during a press conference with the European Union foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, Clinton’s language changed significantly.
“President Assad talks about reform, but his heavy-handed, brutal crackdown shows his true intentions,” Clinton said, moving away from her previous hopeful remarks about Assad the “reformer.” Signaling another shift, Clinton called on Assad to “respond to the demands of the people by a process of credible and inclusive democratic change.”
Clinton’s language was noticeably different from the earlier vague references to “dialogue” and “reform.” For the first time in the last two months, the administration was talking about “democratic change,” visibly moving closer to the demands of the Syrian protesters. The meeting with Ashton also prefigured the sanctioning of Assad personally.
This change in posture toward Assad was also reflected in the media coverage. On Tuesday, David Ignatius of the Washington Post reported that the governments of France, Jordan and Saudi Arabia “are all said to have concluded that the Assad regime cannot survive,” with France also pushing Washington to “signal publicly that it is time for Assad to leave office.”
Yet, according to Ignatius, the White House still “appeared to be weighing whether to make one last attempt” at getting Assad to implement his long-promised reforms. It is unclear what lay behind this tendency, and whether it is attributable to an ongoing debate within the administration.
Whatever the case may be, this confusion was further reflected in the administration’s seemingly paradoxical public call on Wednesday for Assad to either “lead a political transition or leave.” It is unclear how, after declaring Assad a pariah by sanctioning him, the administration thought he had any legitimacy to “lead a transition,” especially when the Secretary of State had just expressed her belief that his “true intentions” were best expressed in his brutal crackdown.
One possible reason for this conflicting message is deference to Turkey’s position. In a report on the meeting between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the US ambassador to Turkey, Francis Ricciardone, on Tuesday, Hürriyet Daily News wrote that “Turkey believes [Assad’s] regime should be given more time to make reforms.” In addition, last week Erdoğan told Bloomberg TV that it was still too early to call on Assad to step down.
At the same time however, the Turks are themselves sending out conflicting messages. In its report, Hürriyet quoted a Turkish diplomat as saying that Ankara wanted “a smooth transformation and an orderly transition” – language that went well beyond “reform,” and echoed Clinton’s, as well as the State Department’s most recent talking point, explaining the latest round of sanctions as “an effort to increase pressure on the government of Syria to … begin transitioning to a democratic system.”
Perhaps, then, Washington’s seemingly dissonant position reflects Ankara’s. Both governments seem to have reached the conclusion that the Assad regime is finished, but they have not yet fully completed the shift to a post-Assad policy. It is a matter of time, as there is no chance that Assad will actually embark on a process of democratic change that would end his grip on power. Nor does Assad have any veneer of legitimacy left. After all, that was the meaning of slapping him with sanctions, holding him responsible for presiding over the savage crimes against his people. The obvious truth is that Assad always was incapable of reform. At last it would seem the administration is recognizing that its policy of “hope” toward Assad was a pipe dream. However, finally coming to this realization is only half the job. Now the administration needs to formulate an entirely new Syria policy to match this conclusion, no matter how reluctant it may be to abandon its old paradigm.
*Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He tweets @AcrossTheBay.

The old bear of the Assad regime is falling
Syria's people no longer fear the state violence machine. The only legitimacy they will accept now is from the ballot box
Ali al-Hajj guardian.co.uk,
Thursday 19 May 2011
These days wherever you go on the streets of old Damascus you can hear whispers anticipating the fall of the Assad regime. No one knows how. No one asks how.
This was, for decades, the capital of Syria's silent republic. When you visit former ministers and businessmen close to the regime, you feel as if you are in a fantasy scene on a famous Syrian TV drama. The theatrics have succeeded in convincing the Arab world that terrorist extremists have infiltrated anti-government protesters, but they have failed to persuade the children of Deraa of that.
The stooges tell you they are against the security forces' harsh tactics, and criticise the repression of the protesters. Yet at the same time they are convinced that the Syrian regime is based upon a nonnegotiable and fundamental philosophy: that of the iron fist. Political reform would require that the Assad regime unclench that fist, thus weakening itself and accelerating its collapse.
Some of these regime figures have known first-hand how the west thinks. Some have served long years as ambassadors for Hafez al-Assad and his son, Bashar. They will tell you clearly: we know that the west is not merely toying with the regime, its pressure is not without weight, and President Assad is mistaken if he thinks he will survive on this path. Some express regret at the years of effort spent building Syria's international relations, which have now been laid to waste.
Syria's people face that most violent and bloodthirsty of Middle Eastern regimes, yet take to the streets every Friday with bare hands and chests, affording tanks and snipers a simple chance to shoot to kill. The people defy all the complex and carefully organised regulations put in place by the Assad regime to prevent demonstrators from reaching squares, and to forestall the emergence of an equivalent to Cairo's Tahrir Square.
The Syrian people think the time for change has come, and they cannot go back. They do not fear the state violence machine. They will not accept reforms promised by a regime in broad daylight, then disregarded come nightfall. All credibility and legitimacy has been lost.
At last, the only legitimacy acceptable to the people of Syria is that to emerge via the ballot box. When you ask Syrians about the west's stance, they tell you there is no doubt: the civilised world will not leave them isolated; international legitimacy is the strongest path now; and the interests of the west lie in a democratic, peaceful Syria that endeavours for scientific, economic, and societal development.
In other words, the complete opposite of the current situation, which is based on meddling in the world affairs and extorting governments.
We cannot analyse the situation in Syria without observing the full picture, and without being careful not to gloss over details. A complete portrait embraces Syria's internal situation, the options for neighbouring and regional states, and the western stance. In its various shades and tones, this scene portrays the fate of the Assad regime as an aging bear, born in March 1963, now falling from the uppermost branches of the tree.
The world tries to slow the fall, so as to soften the blow and avoid an explosion in the region. Not only is there Turkey and the Kurdish question; Lebanon and the contradictions of Sunni, Shia, Christian and Druze; Iraq, Jordan and their tribal, ethnic and religious overlaps with Syria; but also Israel, which no longer trusts a regime that subjects its people to all forms of violence and lawlessness.
• This article was commissioned and translated in collaboration with Meedan.

Syria Christians fear for religious freedom
JPost.com/Middle East
05/18/2011 2
Reuters/Haaretz
Minority fears change in secular Syria, concerned over plight of Christians in Iraq, Egypt; community says it has Biblical roots.
BEIRUT - Syria's minority Christians are watching the protests sweeping their country with trepidation, fearing their religious freedom could be threatened if President Bashar Assad's autocratic but secular rule is overthrown.
Sunni Muslims form a majority in Syria, but under four decades of rule by Assad's minority Alawites the country's varied religious groups have enjoyed the right to practice their faith.\
Calls for Muslim prayers ring out alongside church bells in Damascus, where the apostle Paul started his ministry and Christians have worshipped for two millennia.
But for many Syrian Christians, the flight of their brethren from sectarian conflict in neighboring Iraq and recent attacks on Christians in Egypt have highlighted the dangers they fear they will face if Assad succumbs to the wave of uprisings sweeping the Arab world.
"Definitely the Christians in Syria support Bashar al-Assad. They hope that this storm will not spread," Yohana Ibrahim, the Syriac Orthodox Archbishop of Aleppo, told Reuters.
Protests erupted in Syria two months ago, triggered by anger and frustration at widespread corruption and lack of freedom in the country ruled with an iron fist by the Assad family for nearly half a century.
Although some Christians may be participating in the protests, church institutions have not supported them.
Christians contacted by Reuters said they backed calls for reform but not the demands for "regime change", which they said could fragment Syria and give the upper hand possibly to Islamist groups that would deny them religious freedom.
"The Christians in Syria -- whether Orthodox, Armenians, Maronites, Anglicans, Assyrians or Catholics -- consider themselves first (Syrian) citizens, the sons of the land," said Habib Afram, president of the Syriac League.
"The general atmosphere from the churches' positions and from Christian figures is fixed on stability and security because religious freedom is absolutely guaranteed in Syria," he said.
Syrian Christian: Minority "ruled by the military or the turban of a cleric"
Syria's Christian community is believed to make up around six percent of the population, down from 10 percent at the middle of the last century.
Christians have equal rights -- and the same restriction on political freedom -- as Muslims, apart from a constitutional stipulation that the president must be a Muslim.
"Our ethnicity or language may not be recognized and we are not allowed to form a party, but this is the case of all Syrians," a church source said, adding that the choice for minorities in the Middle East was "to be ruled by the military or the turban of a cleric."
In a region where minorities face growing challenges, and where tensions between Sunni Muslims and Shi'ite Muslims are on the rise, Syria still feels like a refuge to many Christians.
Iraqi Christians have frequently been targeted in violence which followed the U.S. invasion in 2003. Fifty two people were killed in an assault on a Baghdad cathedral last October.
In Egypt, where a popular uprising overthrew strongman Hosni Mubarak in February, 12 people died in a Cairo suburb last week in fighting sparked by rumors that Christians had abducted a woman who converted to Islam.
"The change that came at the hand of the American army in Iraq did not protect the Christians and the change that came from the people in Egypt could not protect the Christians," the source said."Minorities are paying the price in these revolutions".
Some Christians detect the same sectarianism in chants at recent Syrian protests.
Samer Lahham, who runs ecumenical relations at the Greek Orthodox Patriarchate in Damascus, said the fact that protests have broken out mainly after weekly Muslim prayers -- which offer a rare chance for Syrians to gather legally -- had lent a "religious identity" to the demonstrations.
"Christians cannot be part of such action, although they support tangible reformations at different levels, slowly but steadily," he said. "They fear the hidden plan is to transform Syria into a religious system governed by those who... do not have the culture of accepting the other," said Lahham.
Assad's father, Hafez, crushed an armed uprising by Islamists belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood group in the early 1980s. Islamic influence has spread in society since then, as elsewhere in the Middle East, with the government seeking to co-opt moderate Muslim leaders.
Ibrahim said that the churches are not encouraging people to take part in demonstrations nor to be involved in acts seen hostile to Assad's rule.
"In every speech we talk about awareness and that we should be vigilant to stay away from what could affect our presence."
"We have the same views (as protesters) against corruption and bribery, and with reforms but all of these demands should not lead me to participate in ruining my home and destroying my country," Ibrahim said.
"I can guarantee that 80 percent of the people come to the church to hear what the church say about (protests), and they commit (to its position)," the archbishop added

Syria: Working From An Old Play Book?
OpEdWritten by: MEI
http://www.eurasiareview.com/syria-working-from-an-old-play-book-oped-18052011/
May 18, 2011
By Wayne E. White
Developments in Syria have been growing more disturbing. The Assad regime seems to be reacting to the unrest as if it believes it can contain it with much the same approach used against the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood roughly 30 years ago, particularly during 1980-1982. Some have credited Tehran with coaching Damascus on how to contain its current popular challenge. But aside from tips on exploiting cell phones and social media activity to identify dissenters, and thereby undermining the opposition’s ability to exploit the internet, the tactics reportedly playing out militarily on the ground seem chillingly similar to those this regime used once before.
From 1979-1990, I was involved in coverage of Syria for the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research. During this time, I was able to follow in some detail the Syrian regime’s roughly five year struggle against the Muslim Brotherhood. In the weeks during which Hama was partly destroyed by regime heavy weapons in February 1982, I was responsible for all INR coverage of that repressive urban nightmare.
Syria
When Brotherhood-driven unrest rose to serious levels in Aleppo in 1980, a reinforced Syrian armored division surrounded and besieged the city with such effectiveness that the vast bulk of the populace opted to avoid a bloodbath and a crushing attack like that which would later smash much of the Brotherhood’s fighting capacity in Hama. A fearsome display of regime military power in the form of tanks and artillery was arrayed outside Aleppo for some weeks while security forces combed the city for suspected oppositionists. In the case of Hama, where far more Muslim Brotherhood cadres had gathered in 1982, the regime finally did opt to move in and crush the Brotherhood militarily after trying the same sort of powerful show of force around the city that had worked at Aleppo two years earlier.
On May 11, London Times correspondent Martin Fletcher, after some low-profile on-the-spot reconnaissance, attested to exceptionally large amounts of Syrian armor concentrated just outside Homs. Armored and mechanized units have similarly besieged other urban centers, but this particular concentration might be greater. It could be that the aging veterans of the struggle against the Muslim Brotherhood within the regime’s inner circle have convinced themselves and Bashar al-Assad that what worked before in smashing the Brotherhood also should work against the forces now challenging the regime – in spite of the larger number of outbreaks of unrest and defiance this time around.
Yet the center of gravity of active resistance back in 1980-1982, despite a number of sympathizers throughout Syria’s majority Sunni Arab community (especially outside Damascus), remained relatively confined to the ranks of the Brotherhood and its most ardent supporters. Consequently, a show of force outside Aleppo in 1980 could cause the bulk of the general populace in a major locality to back down en mass. Likewise, brutal military intervention in Hama when so many hard core cadres of the Brotherhood had gathered there to make a determined stand, could take out much of the opposition’s core in one fell swoop (and telegraph a chilling signal to potential challengers in other urban centers). This time around, however, the opposition seems more diverse and broader in societal terms. The Brotherhood was more violent then, but its popular depth probably was not nearly as substantial as that of today’s opposition.
Given the number of cities and towns having experienced significant unrest in the past two months, one would think the Assad regime would be aware that resort to more extreme measures than even those witnessed so far could generate still more instability on the national level and place even greater strain on rather stretched loyal military units attempting to contain it. One cannot exclude, however, that the regime remains hopeful that a massive show of military force — and perhaps even a bloody demonstration of its willingness to crack down with heightened ruthlessness in one particular hotbed of opposition — would stun Syria back to more manageable levels of dissent. Hopefully, such a scenario does not lie ahead, but the situation might be drifting closer to a bloodbath scenario given what could still be a frightened regime’s violent-minded (and possibly delusional) attachment to the exceedingly brutal tactics of another time.
Wayne White, a scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC, is the former deputy director of the State Department’s intelligence office for the Near East and South Asia. Assertions and opinions in this Policy Insight are solely those of the above-mentioned author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Middle East Institute, which expressly does not take positions on Middle East policy.
About the author:
MEI
Founded in 1946, the Middle East Institute is the oldest Washington-based institution dedicated solely to the study of the Middle East. Its founders, scholar George Camp Keiser and former US Secretary of State Christian Herter, laid out a simple mandate: “to increase knowledge of the Middle East among the citizens of the United States and to promote a better understanding between the people of these two areas.”