LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِMay 14/2011

Biblical Event Of The Day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 16,20-23. Amen, amen, I say to you, you will weep and mourn, while the world rejoices; you will grieve, but your grief will become joy. When a woman is in labor, she is in anguish because her hour has arrived; but when she has given birth to a child, she no longer remembers the pain because of her joy that a child has been born into the world. So you also are now in anguish. But I will see you again, and your hearts will rejoice, and no one will take your joy away from you. On that day you will not question me about anything. Amen, amen, I say to you, whatever you ask the Father in my name he will give you.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Crime Wave in Egypt Has People Afraid, Even the Police/By: David D. Kirkpatrick/May 13/11
Israel has only one option when it comes to Iran/By: Carlo Stenger/May 13/11
Rattling the Cage: There's no double standard/Jerusalem Post/May 13/11
Syrian disappointments and the Arab reality/By: Abdul Rahman Al-Rashid/May 13/11
But where are the republics?/By: Tariq Alhomayed/May 13/11
Bkirki drops the ball/Daily Star/May 13/11
Freeing Israel from its Iran bluff/By: Trita Parsi/May 13/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for May 13/11
Suicide bombing kills 80 in Pakistan/Agencies/Ynetnews
Up to 850 killed in Syria -U.N. rights office/Reuters
Report: Fingers pointed at Syria in Hariri probe/Ynetnews
Report: Russia blocks UN report on Iran arms/Reuters
Bin Laden stayed obsessed with mega-attacks for toppling America/DEBKAfile
Shin Bet: Gaza arms smugglers operating freely since fall of Mubarak/Reuters/Haaretz
Israelis train to shoot down missiles as warfare focuses increasingly on home/Washington Post
Syria, Libya, Yemen and Middle East unrest - live updates/The Guardian
Russia calls for Libya talks, warns on Syria, Iran/Reuters
Turkish PM says “early” to call on Assad to go/Now Lebanon
Syria Braces for More Anti-Regime Protests/VOA
Tribunal pre-trial judge grants Sayyed access to documents/Daily Star
Fear lingers for Syrians who fled to Lebanon/Times Live
'Jews and Christians share democratic values'/Israel Today
Bahrain military chief says Gulf troops to stay on/SFC
Death Toll Mounts in Syria as Army Deploys Tanks Against Demonstrators/Bloomberg
Accidental eyewitness/BBC
Fransen orders Bellemare release files to Sayyed/Daily Star
Staying Out of Syria/American Conservative Magazine
Mikati is discontent with Conelly's Thursday statement/iloubnan.info
Abi Ramia says Sleiman and Mikati are obstructing the cabinet formation/iloubnan.info
Fearing Assad demise, Hezbollah may move assets from Syria/J.Post
STL judge orders access to former Lebanese general's file/AFP
Israeli army boosts presence along Blue Line near Adaysseh/Daily Star
Charbel confirms nomination for Interior Ministrytop post/Daily Star
Eight Cluster Bombs End up in Man's Garden in the South/Naharnet
Obstacles of Telecom, Energy and Justice Ministries Begin Appearing/Naharnet
Dispute Over 6 Maronite Ministers: Aoun Wants 5 while Suleiman Wants 2/Naharnet
Conflicting Reports on Whether Meeting Between Miqati and Envoys of Berri, Nasrallah, Aoun was Held/Naharnet
No Plans for Imminent Visit by Feltman to Beirut/Naharnet
Fransen Orders Release of More Than 270 Probe Documents to Sayyed/Naharnet
No Timeframe for Indictment Review, Says STL Spokesperson/Naharnet
Connelly Meets Miqati, Hopes New Govt Will Uphold STL Support/Naharnet
UNIFIL Delivers Vehicles to Lebanese Army/Naharnet
Report: Estonians YouTube Video Uploaded from Damascus/Naharnet
Geagea: Hizbullah and Syria Want to Form a Cabinet that Reflects their Image/Naharnet
Roumieh Inmates Call for Liberation of Prisoners Day on May 25/Naharnet
Suleiman Says 'Crippling Demands' Obstructing Cabinet Formation/Naharnet
Higher Islamic Shiite Council Objects to 'State's Right to Liberate its Land'/Naharnet
Syria Informed Jumblat about its Frustration over Cabinet Deadlock/Naharnet

Egypt's New Rulers Must Protect the Copts, not Persecute them
By: Elias Bejjani
Were we all fantasizing, naive and foolish when the recent peaceful and civilized Egyptian revolution led by the new youthful generation made us and the whole world believe that its prime objectives were stability, freedom, justice, peace, equality, democracy, openness, respect for human rights, a dignified life with no oppression, education about hatred and discrimination and a secular constitution that secures equality in rights and obligations for all Egyptians citizens of all religions?
Like many others, we are enraged, disappointed and sad because the "Higher Military Egyptian Council” that assumed power after the ousting of President Hosni Mubarak and his government, has badly covertly and overtly adopted all the previous Egyptian regimes' despicable inhuman practices, intolerance, discrimination, injustice and persecution of the Christian Copts. Not only that, but against all logic, patriotism, and obligations towards other Arab countries has embraced the Iranian mullahs' fundamentalist and terrorist regime, undeterred by its flagrant terrorism, hostility, and interference in the internal affairs of the Gulf Arab States, Lebanon and Iraq. One wonders if the only achievement of the Egyptian revolution was the replacement of one Pharaoh with another.
Sadly, so far, nothing substantial has changed in Egypt, except in the camouflaged firing, hiring and arrest of a number of high ranking officials, mainly ministers, army intelligence officers and governors.
The first and major failure and setback committed by the "Higher Military Egyptian Council" members was in their stubborn clinging to Article Two in the country's constitution that legalizes discrimination and apartheid. It states verbatim: "Islam is the religion of the state, Arabic is its official language, and the principles of Islamic Sharia are the main source of legislation".
In this realm of discrimination, the Council refused to appoint Christians and women in the judicial committee that was designated to study and propose constitutional amendments. The approved amendments were few, insubstantial and merely decorative and cosmetic.
Constitutions in all free and democratic countries are secular and not based on any religion because a free and democratic state does not require the protection of any one religion, but its institutions assume the responsibility of protecting and facilitating the religious rights and freedom for all citizens. Religion must be a free personal choice and should not by any means be forced on any individual no matter what, while no one legally or morally has the right to impose any religious lifestyle or beliefs on others.
Article Two preaches, fosters and fortifies racism and discriminates between the citizens of Egypt according to their religious beliefs. It cultivates and nurtures par excellence feelings of hostility, grudges, inequality and a sense of superiority for Muslims and inferiority among Christians.
The Council refused to amend this discriminating article without giving any justifications; and while the majority of the Egyptians are Sunni Muslims, there are more than 15 million Christians, more than one million Shiite Muslims, as well Baha'is, Jews and even atheists.
The racist Article Two has been for many, many years encouraging the Egyptian Muslim Salafists and other Islamic fundamentalists to deal with their fellow Christian citizens with superiority, contempt, humiliation, hostility, intolerance, ongoing bloody violent infringements on the Coptic faith, rituals, everyday lifestyle, property, freedom of work, residence, movement, family affairs, and churches.
In reality, Egyptian authorities have always turned a blind eye on the fanatical assailants and perpetrators, protected their violent acts and ignored enforcing the law on them. Earlier this month (08.05.11), Coptic Christians in the area of Embaba (Cairo) were massively attacked by 3,000 Muslim Salafists continuously for 14 hours without any police or army intervention. The attackers fired guns and rifles and hurled Molotov cocktails at Coptic churches, houses and businesses. Twelve Copts were killed and 232 wounded. The Higher Military Egyptian Council did not assume its national duties, declined from protecting the Copts and just passively watched while the Copts were being slaughtered.
The Free World countries and UN have a moral obligation to intervene by all available means and on all levels in a bid to protect the Egyptian Copts and to condemn the stance of dire indifference that the actual new military rulers of Egypt are taking, while the fanatical Muslim Salafists are attacking the Copts, invading their homes, killing them, burning their churches and threatening to kill their clergy including the Coptic Pope Shenouda.
Apparently, the Council has abandoned its security obligations and it is either not interfering at all or succumbing to the Salafist fundementalists’ threats. Last month, the Salafists challenged the Council when it appointed a Christian Governor and through violent demonstrations it was forced to retreat and rescind the appointment.
It's really a huge insult to the new Egyptian rulers and to all the Arab countries when the persecuted, threatened, scared and abandoned Copts need to call on the UN and Free World countries to step in and protect them from their own rulers, army and people. In conclusion, it’s the national duty of the Egyptian state and people to produce an effective legal, social and security apparatus through which the safety, freedom, faith, churches and property of the Copts are safeguarded from the savagery of the Salafists and other fanatics. Meanwhile, all Copts' rights as equal Egyptian citizens should be fully honored without racism, discrimination or injustice. And most importantly, both Article Two of the Egyptian constitution and the "Hamayoni Decree" (a clause in the Egyptian law, dating back from Ottoman rule, February 1856, that regulates Church construction and maintenance), MUST be abolished.

Turkish PM says “early” to call on Assad to go
May 13, 2011 /Turkey's prime minister has said it is premature to say whether Bashar al-Assad should quit, while renewing a call on the Syrian leader for speedy reform to end bloody turmoil in his country. Recep Tayyip Erdogan described Assad as a "good friend" and said Ankara had begun applying pressure for reform even before a wave of uprisings began in Arab countries, in an interview aired on the US television channel Bloomberg late Thursday. "He was late... I hope he takes those steps quickly and gets integrated with his people because in each of my visits to Syria I see people's love for Bashar al-Assad," Erdogan said through voice-over translation. Asked whether Assad could survive or should go, Erdogan said: "It's early to make a decision today because the final decision will be made by the people of Syria... The unity and integrity of Syria should be preserved." Erdogan said he had "long conversations" with Assad last year on the need to lift emergency rule in Syria, release political prisoners, amend the election system and introduce multi-party politics. "I said 'if necessary, send us your people and we can train them'... how does a political party gets organized, how to communicate with the people," he said. "Then we actually agreed on these points. However taking these steps was delayed and this domino effect [of the Arab uprisings] eventually caught Syria as well," he added. Turkey, whose ties with Syria have flourished in recent years, has said that it is against foreign intervention in its southern neighbor and that the unrest-hit country should solve its own problems.Assad’s regime has been rocked by unprecedented protests since mid-March. -AFP/NOW Lebanon

Higher Islamic Shiite Council Objects to 'State's Right to Liberate its Land'
Naharnet/The Higher Islamic Shiite Council's objections against the Christian-Islamic summit's closing statement reflected the turbulent political situation in Lebanon and raised questions over the possibility of holding another summit in the future, reported As Safir on Friday. "Should the summit have been held without an agreement being reached or was it better that it not be held at all?" it asked. The Higher Islamic Shiite Council objected to the closing statement's position on the conflict with Israel, in that it called it a "Palestinian-Israeli" conflict instead of "Arab-Israeli" conflict. Such phrasing has never been adopted by Islamic leaderships, especially Dar al-Fatwa and the Shiite and Druze councils, said As Safir.
It pointed out that changes on the final printed version of the closing statement were done with ink, which raises questions that the change was deliberate in order to spark a dispute over this matter. Another change was made to the statement regarding Lebanon's role in confronting Israel. Vice President of the Higher Islamic Shiite Council Sheikh Abdul Amir Qabalan had insisted that the closing statement demand that Lebanon, meaning its people, army, and Resistance, has the right to liberate its land, reported An Nahar on Friday. The final version stated however that "the Lebanese state has the right to liberate occupied territory." This prompted the Higher Islamic Shiite Council to issue its statement in objection to the change, saying that an agreement was reached at the summit that issues of dispute would not be addressed in the closing statement. It revealed that only matters that had enjoyed consensus at the meeting would be addressed in the final statement. This raises questions over who decided to include contentious issues in the closing statement and their motivations for such an action, said As Safir.
It also wondered why other religious and political leaderships, including Sunni authorities, Speaker Nabih Berri, Hizbullah, and PSP leader MP Walid Jumblat, did not issue objections over the summit's closing statement. The Higher Islamic Shiite Council meanwhile stressed that it was not concerned with the Christian-Islamic summit's statement. Beirut, 13 May 11, 12:09

Suleiman Says 'Crippling Demands' Obstructing Cabinet Formation
Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman's circles have unveiled that "crippling demands" were further delaying the formation of the cabinet despite consensus on nominating retired Internal Security Forces Maj. Gen. Marwan Charbel for the interior ministry post. The circles told As Safir daily in remarks published Friday that no major progress was made on the level of consultations between the different parties involved in the formation of the government. While the circles did not confirm or deny that Suleiman retracted his agreement in principle on naming Charbel as interior minister, they said there are "crippling demands.""Anyways the obstacle doesn't lie with the president. It is somewhere else," they added. The report came as hopes for the imminent formation of Premier-designate Najib Miqati's government faded after squabbling over the distribution of portfolios. Beirut, 13 May 11, 08:55

Syria Informed Jumblat about its Frustration over Cabinet Deadlock
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat expressed the Syrian officials' annoyance over the delay in the Lebanese cabinet formation, after his return from Damascus Thursday night. "The Syrian officials are aware of the true reasons behind the delay in the government formation," according to information obtained by al-Liwaa newspaper on Friday.
Jumblat discussed the Syrian-Lebanese bilateral relations and the general developments with Maj. Gen. Mohammed Nassif and a number of officials in Damascus.
Meanwhile, the PSP leader's envoy Caretaker Minister Ghazi al-Aridi held talks with Premier-designate Najib Miqati on Thursday, the second meeting between the two men in 24 hours.
Aridi informed Miqati about Jumblat's visit to Syria. The caretaker minister told al-Manar television after his return to Beirut that Syria encouraged the government's formation. Beirut, 13 May 11, 10:20

Dispute Over 6 Maronite Ministers: Aoun Wants 5 while Suleiman Wants 2
Naharnet/A solution to the stalemate of the interior ministry portfolio gave rise to a dispute between President Michel Suleiman and Free Patriotic Movement chief Michel Aoun on the Maronite ministers. An Nahar daily said that after Suleiman approved Aoun's suggestion to name retired Internal Security Forces Maj. Gen. Marwan Charbel for the interior ministry post, he asked for a second Maronite minister to be part of his share in the new cabinet given that the FPM chief has claimed that Charbel is a consensual candidate and should not represent the president alone. The dispute over the sixth Maronite minister in the government is expected to further delay the formation of the cabinet.
As Safir newspaper also confirmed reports about the bickering between Aoun and Suleiman. It said that Aoun's envoy Caretaker Minister Jebran Bassil had asked for the remaining five Maronite seats to be all from the Change and Reform bloc's share. Meanwhile, Charbel visited Premier-designate Najib Miqati on Thursday. Beirut, 13 May 11, 11:08

Fransen Orders Release of More Than 270 Probe Documents to Sayyed
Naharnet/Special Tribunal for Lebanon Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen has ordered that STL Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare release more than 270 documents to Maj. Gen. Jamil Sayyed, Lebanon's former General Security chief, STL's press office said Thursday. "Fransen ruled that Mr. Sayyed would receive some of the documents in the possession of the STL Prosecutor very soon. A large majority of these will be disclosed to Mr. Sayyed, whilst others can only be inspected by his counsel," the press office clarified in a communiqué.
Fransen also ruled that these documents can only be used for "legitimate purposes," the press office said, noting that the use of these documents "must respect the presumption of innocence, the right of the defense and the right to privacy of third parties."  Sayyed was one of four Lebanese generals detained by the Lebanese authorities in connection with the 2005 assassination of then prime minister Rafik Hariri and others. He was released in April 2009, just weeks after the establishment of the STL, following an order by Judge Fransen.
Sayyed has claimed that he was wrongly detained by the Lebanese authorities on the basis of libelous denunciations. He had asked the STL for access to some investigation documents so that he can pursue civil claims in national courts. "This process has taken some time. First the Prosecutor identified and listed several hundred documents in his possession and then the Pre-Trial Judge has individually reviewed each of them before reaching his decision," STL's press office noted in its communiqué. "Fransen has ordered the Prosecutor to file a report by June 13th that explains how he has completed the obligations required in this decision," the press office added. The Pre-Trial Judge has also ordered the Prosecutor to review some additional documents, which may be released to Sayyed in the future, according to STL's press office. Beirut, 12 May 11, 18:15

Fearing Assad demise, Hezbollah may move assets from Syria
By YAAKOV KATZ /J.Post
05/12/2011 23:55
Israel concerned about fate of advanced missiles and extensive chemical weapons held by Assad’s military, and the question of whose hands they would fall into in the event that his regime is toppled. Concern is growing among Western intelligence agencies that Hezbollah might try to transfer advanced weaponry it reportedly maintains on Syrian soil if it feels that President Bashar Assad’s reign is on the verge of ending.
Last year, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu revealed in a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi that Hezbollah was storing Scud missiles in military bases in Syria.
The London Times revealed at the time a compound near the town of Adra, northeast of Damascus, where it said Hezbollah fighters had their own living quarters and which housed arms and a fleet of trucks used to ferry weapons into Lebanon.
Hezbollah is believed to have stored other advanced arms in Syria – including long-range rockets – as part of its logistical deployment along Israel’s northern border.
Israel’s main concern in Syria has to do with the fate of the advanced missiles and extensive chemical weapons held by Assad’s military and the question of whose hands they would fall into in the event that his regime is toppled. Since Israel’s bombing of the nuclear reactor Assad was covertly building in 2007, Syria has put a stronger emphasis on chemical weapons and nonconventional warheads.
At the moment, the Syrian military is believed to still be in full control of its assets and troops, although some lowlevel soldiers have defected to the opposition.
A senior IDF officer said on Thursday that Hezbollah and Iran were extremely concerned by the protests in Syria.
“They worry about what will happen to their axis, that included Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, if Assad falls,” the senior officer said. According to the officer, both Iran and Hezbollah have sent advisers to Syria to assist the military in quelling the growing protests.
In recent years, a significant portion of Hezbollah’s weaponry has been manufactured in Syria or smuggled into Lebanon via Syria. One known route was over land – originating in Iran, moving through Turkey, into Syria, and then into Lebanon. Another was by sea from Iran to Syria and then by land to Lebanon. There have also been instances of planes that have taken off from Iran and landed in Lebanon with weaponry.
The land route involving Turkey has for the most part been exposed and is no longer believed to be in use, due to a Turkish decision to distance itself from its relations with Syria amid Assad’s violent crackdown on his people.

Report: Fingers pointed at Syria in Hariri probe
New information linking Syrian officials to 2005 assassination may isolate Damascus further. Lebanese media report suggests France considering cutting ties with Assad
Ynet Published: 05.13.11, 10:30 /
Ynetnews/The spotlight is once again on Syria as another turning point is noted in the UN tirbunal's investigation into the death of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.
According to Lebanese press reports, prosecutor Daniel Bellemare has obtained new information indicating the involvement of Syrian senior officials in the 2005 assassination. The material was included in the amended indictment draft which was filed last week. The report indicated that the information was provided by Syrian expats in Hague who claimed they witnessed the event. Meanwhile, the as-Safir newspaper quoted a French source who said the UN prosecutor discussed cooperation with French security authorities with Paris officials. According to the report, the prosecutor promised to track down the Syrian organizers of the Hariri assassination. Twenty-two other people were killed in the 2005 attack which ignited a protest wave which led to Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon. At the time, Syria was marked as the prime suspect for the hit as Hariri was known as fiercely critical of its involvement in Lebanon. Later, fingers were pointed at a Syrian ally – Hezbollah. The French source told the paper that Paris was on the verge of cutting ties with Damascus, in the backdrop of Syria's violent crackdown against protestors. They believe that blaming the Syrian regime for Hariri's murder will isolate President Bashar Assad further.

Up to 850 killed in Syria -U.N. rights office
GENEVA May 13 (Reuters) - The death toll in Syria may be as high as 850 and thousands of demonstrators have been arrested during a two-month military crackdown, the United Nations human rights office said on Friday. "We again call on the government to exercise restraint, to cease use of force and mass arrests to silence opponents," Rupert Colville, spokesman of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, told a news briefing. The toll of 700-to-850 dead, based on information provided by human rights activists, was "quite likely to be genuine", he added. Colville voiced concern about arrest and torture of dissidents in Bahrain, including the death of four detainees while in custody, and announced that Yemen had accepted a visit by a U.N. human rights mission, suggesting a date of late June. (Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay and Barbara Lewis; Editing by Michael Roddy)

Assad broadens Syria crackdown, tanks push south
Reuters) - Syrian forces spread through southern towns Thursday and tightened their grip on two other cities, broadening a crackdown ahead of what could prove a pivotal day for protests against President Bashar al-Assad. While Assad has promised reforms in the hope of dampening dissent, tanks advanced in the southern towns of Dael, Tafas, Jassem and al-Harra before Friday -- the Muslim day of prayer which has become the main day of protests across the Arab world. A Geneva-based jurists' group said troops have killed 700 people and rounded up thousands while indiscriminately shelling towns during the nearly two-month crackdown, the biggest challenge to Assad's 11-year authoritarian rule. Friday prayers offer the only chance for Syrians to assemble in large numbers, making it easier to hold demonstrations. This week will be a particularly important test after the government said it had largely put down the unrest.
Tanks were deployed in areas on the Syrian coast, the central region of Homs, outside the city of Hama to the north and now across the southern Hauran Plain, regions which cover large swathes of the country of 20 million people.
The official SANA news agency said army units were chasing "armed terrorist groups," backed by Islamists and foreign agitators, whom authorities have blamed for the violence. The government says about 100 soldiers and police have been killed, including two Wednesday in the cities of Homs and Deraa.
Foreign journalists have been barred from the country, making independent accounts difficult to obtain. The Geneva-based International Commission of Jurists said reports it had received from lawyers and rights groups in the country described attacks on civilians that amounted to crimes under international law.
"More than 700 people have reportedly been unlawfully killed and hundreds subjected to enforced disappearances," it said. "The ICJ continues to receive credible reports that bodies have been left in the streets for days and the injured blocked from accessing medical facilities."
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington and its allies would hold Assad's government to account for "brutal reprisals" against protesters and may tighten sanctions, but she stopped short of saying Assad should leave power. Washington and its European allies have been criticized for a tepid response to the violence in Syria, in contrast with Libya where they are carrying out a bombing campaign they say will not end until leader Muammar Gaddafi is driven from power. The United States and Europe so far have imposed economic sanctions on a handful of senior Libyan officials, not including Assad himself. "President Assad faces increasing isolation and we will continue to work with our international partners in the EU and elsewhere on additional steps to hold Syria accountable for its gross human rights abuses," Clinton said. Asked if Assad had lost his legitimacy to rule, she demurred but said Washington had watched with "great consternation and concern as events have unfolded under his leadership."
UPRISING
A prominent lawyer in the southern Hauran region, where the uprising erupted in March, said hundreds of people had been arrested in the region since Wednesday, when a rights activist said 13 people were killed by tank shelling in the area.
There was no immediate comment from Syrian authorities.
In the besieged coastal city of Banias and nearby village of Baida, security forces arrested scores of residents Thursday, two Syrian human rights organizations said.
"The sound of heavy gunfire was heard as security forces made the arrests," a spokesman for the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
In Homs, security forces arrested a veteran human rights campaigner, Naji Tayara, Thursday, the group said. Tayara had been an outspoken critic of a military incursion into the city's residential neighborhoods.
A main residential neighborhood in Homs remained sealed by security forces after it was shelled by tanks Wednesday and at least five people were killed, a witness said.
"I passed by a major road block at the main entrance to Homs off the highway to Damascus. Armed security men were checking names and they asked me what business I had going into Homs," a woman who traveled to Homs from Damascus to see relatives said.
Assad has responded to the unrest with promises of reform, lifting a 48-year-old state of emergency and granting stateless Kurds Syrian citizenship last month. Rights groups say thousands have been arrested and beaten since he made the promises. The 45-year-old president, who had been emerging from Western isolation before the unrest and strengthening ties with NATO member Turkey, has reinforced an alliance with Iran. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan criticized Syria's use of force, saying this week: "it's not an armed group you're firing at ... it's just people in this case." Protests have continued for nearly eight weeks, but the two main cities of Damascus and Aleppo have not seen major unrest. In rare public remarks, the head of Israel's domestic security service, the Shin Bet, said Syria would be "soaked in blood," because Assad's ruling Alawite Shi'ite minority sect was "fighting for its life" in the majority Sunni Muslim country.
(Additional reporting by Suleiman al-Khalidi in Amman, Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva, Andrew Quinn in Nuuk, Greenland, and Dan Williams in Jerusalem; Editing by Jon Boyle)

Clinton: U.S. looking to raise pressure on Syria
Reuters) - Washington and its allies will hold Syria to account for "brutal reprisals" against protesters, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Thursday, but stopped short of saying President Bashar al-Assad should go. Clinton, in Greenland for talks with foreign ministers from other countries with Arctic territory, said the United States and its allies were looking for ways to raise pressure on Assad to agree to democratic reforms to end a seven-week uprising. "President Assad faces increasing isolation and we will continue to work with our international partners in the EU and elsewhere on additional steps to hold Syria responsible for its gross human rights abuses," she said.
"I think it's fair to say that we're going to hold the Syrian government accountable." The Obama administration has been sharply criticized by human rights groups and others for what they say has been a tepid response to Syria's unrest following much stronger U.S. support for popular uprisings in Egypt and Libya.
The United States, like Europe, has imposed economic sanctions on a handful of senior Syrian officials deemed most responsible for the violence, not yet including Assad himself.
The response contrasts notably with Libya, where U.S. and European forces are carrying out air strikes they say will not end until leader Muammar Gaddafi leaves power.
Asked if Assad had lost his legitimacy to lead Syria, Clinton demurred but said the United States had watched with "great consternation and concern as events have unfolded under his leadership." "Despite overwhelming international condemnation, the Syrian government continues to exact brutal reprisals against its own citizens," she said, citing unlawful detention, torture, and denial of medical care to wounded persons. Syrian forces spread through southern towns Thursday and tightened their grip on two other cities, broadening a military crackdown on protests against Assad's government. Clinton indicated the United States could expand sanctions in concert with allies. The European Union listed 13 Syrian officials on a sanctions list Tuesday, including a brother of Assad but not Assad himself. Diplomats say the aim is to introduce punitive measures gradually. "We are working with our international partners to make as strong a case as possible to sanction those who are leading and implementing the policies that are coming from the government," Clinton said.
Danish Foreign Minister Lene Espersen, speaking at an appearance with Clinton in Greenland, said the Europeans too were looking at tougher measures.
"We're calling for the Syrian leadership to actually deliver on the promises that they've made...about political reforms and national dialogue," Espersen said. "If the Syrian leadership does not deliver on reform, we are prepared to tighten the sanctions against the Syrian regime."Editing by Peter Graff)

Suicide bombing kills 80 in Pakistan
Suicide bombers strike paramilitary training center in northwestern Pakistan killing nearly all recruits. Pakistani Taliban claims responsibility for 'first revenge for martyrdom of bin Laden'
Reuters Latest Update: 05.13.11, 09:49 / Ynetnews/Pakistani Taliban suicide bombers killed at least 80 people at a paramilitary force academy in the northwest on Friday, and vowed further bloodshed in retaliation for the death of Osama bin Laden in a US raid in the country. The first major bombing in Pakistan since bin Laden's death on May 2, it will reinforce the common view that his elimination will not ease violence because al Qaeda is not centralized and will keep inspiring groups, like the Pakistani Taliban, which are scattered globally and loosely bound by ideology. "It's the first revenge for the martyrdom of ... bin Laden. There will be more," Taliban spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan said by telephone from an undisclosed location.
The bomber struck soon after dawn as the recruits were on their way out of the gates of the Frontier Constabulary academy in the town of Charsadda on leave.
"It was a suicide bombing," said Nisar Sarwat, police chief of Charsadda, a market town surrounded by wheat fields 135 km (85 miles) from the capital Islamabad.
One of the suicide bombers was on a motorcycle and police were investigating reports that the other attacker was too, he said.
Of the dead, 65 were recruits. Sixty people were wounded. In the last major attack in Pakistan, an unstable South Asian country with a stagnant economy, two Taliban suicide bombers killed at least 41 people at a Sufi shrine on April 3 in a central city. A new push by militants is the last thing Pakistan needs now.
The US special forces operation to kill bin Laden embarrassed the Pakistani government and military, who are under pressure to explain how the al Qaeda chief lived undetected in the garrison town of Abbottabad, about a two hour drive from intelligence headquarters in Islamabad.
The United States, which has questioned Pakistan's reliability as a partner in the American war on militancy, provides billions of dollars of aid to Islamabad.
Security force camps, posts and training grounds have been attacked repeatedly in Pakistan over recent years and many civilians have died.
'Whose war?'The scene outside the academy was familiar - pools of blood mixed with soldiers caps and shoes. The wounded, looking dazed with parts of their clothes ripped by shrapnel, were loaded into trucks. Body parts of the suicide bomber served as a reminder of the steady supply of Pakistanis willing to blow themselves up, inspired by al Qaeda's calls for holy war.
"As we were sitting in the buses there was a small blast. Within moments there was a second, big blast. I fell on the road and became unconscious," said soldier Shafeeq-ur-Rehman, whose leg was wounded in the blast. As he spoke from a bed at Lady Reading hospital in the city of Peshawar, tearful people brought in dead and wounded relatives to the facility that has treated thousands of victims of the struggle between the army and militant groups. "Why are we being killed? Whose war is this? What is our sin"," asked an elderly man with a grey beard as the body of his teenage son was carried in on a stretcher. The Pakistani Taliban launched their insurgency in 2007 after a military raid on Islamabad's Lal Masjid, or Red Mosque, where militant leaders and others were holed up. A series of army offensives against their bases in the lawless Pashtun tribal belt on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border have failed to break their resolve. They just move from one mountain area to another when the heat is on. The killing of bin Laden in Pakistan is thought unlikely to weaken the Pakistan Taliban, while the United States has stepped up drone attacks on militants since bin Laden's death. One of bin Laden's widows told investigators he lived in Pakistan for more than seven years, security officials said.

Report: Russia blocks UN report on Iran arms
Western diplomats accuse Russia of attempting to suppress UN report that says Iran has been breaking a UN arms embargo by shipping weapons to Syria 'It's obviously an attempt to protect Assad'
Reuters Published: 05.13.11, 10:56 /
Russia is attempting to suppress a United Nations report that says Iran has been breaking a UN arms embargo by shipping weapons to Syria, Western diplomats said Thursday.
"Russia has objected to the publication of the report as an official Security Council document," a council diplomat told Reuters on condition of anonymity. Several other diplomats confirmed it. It's obviously an attempt to protect (Syrian President) Bashar al-Assad," who is coming under increasing international pressure over his violent crackdown on anti-government protesters, another council diplomat said.  The confidential report, obtained by Reuters, said most of Iran's breaches of the embargo have been deliveries of weapons to Syria, which Western diplomats say were to be passed on to Lebanese and Palestinian militants. The report by the UN Security Council's so-called Panel of Experts, a newly formed committee that reports on compliance with four rounds of UN sanctions imposed on Iran for refusing to halt its nuclear enrichment program, also says Tehran flouts the sanctions as it continues to develop its atomic program.
Diplomats said Russia offered a procedural justification for objecting to the publication of the report -- it should first be discussed by the Security Council's Iran sanctions committee before being released to the public. "Eventually they'll have to give in but we don't know how long it will take," a diplomat said. Seeking condemnation
Russia is able to block the Iran report because decisions about such reports are made by consensus among the 15 members of the Security Council.
Russia's decision to block the report comes as diplomats said Britain and France were attempting to revive plans to have the Security Council condemn Syria for its crackdown against demonstrators. A previous attempt failed after Russia, China and India objected to the proposed condemnation. A spokesman for Russia's UN mission did not immediately respond to a request for comment. China has prevented the publication of similar UN expert panel reports on North Korea and Sudan, two countries that Beijing routinely tries to shield from Security Council criticism, for as long as half a year. Russia has long acted as a kind of protector for Iran on the council, working hard to dilute the four sanctions resolutions on Iran between 2006 and 2010 before voting in favor of them. It also has close commercial ties to the Islamic Republic. A senior Russian diplomat was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying Thursday that Iran's Russian-built Bushehr nuclear power plant will be fully operational within weeks

Bin Laden stayed obsessed with mega-attacks for toppling America
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 12, 2011
The mountain of materials taken from the computers, disks and the journal found in Osama bin Laden's Abbottabad villa after his death on May 2 confirms that the al Qaeda leader's strategy was dominated by his fundamental drive to achieve a huge attack on a US city, preferably New York, Chicago, Los Angeles or Houston, that would be devastating enough to rock the American economy and make Washington pull US forces out of the Middle East.
He discounted the value of al Qaeda's small-time terrorist activity
As US intelligence analysts continued to sift through the captured materials, US Secretary of the Interior Janet Napolitano said early Thursday morning, May 12 (Wednesday night US time): "One source of concern is what is called 'the lone wolf.' And a sole actor who's not in contact with anyone – that's very difficult to prevent."
But then she switched back adding: "But I can say that we do operate under the premise that, be it a homegrown terrorist or a group, they may be actually operationally in touch with Al Qaeda. We just operate under that assumption."
In the light of the several proposals found in bin Laden's files for bombing the US rail system, Napolitano said that her office was in touch with the American railroad companies to be sure that there were following all the safety directives given to them.
debkafile's counterterrorism sources infer from the Secretary of the Interior's comments and other sources that the materials from Abbottabad examined so far are disappointing. They have contributed no information that would help prevent further terrorist attacks in the US. Neither did they offer leads to any new or established Al Qaeda terror networks assigned to hit major cities in the US, Europe and the Middle East, or yield any links between Bin Laden and active terror networks.
Our counter-terror experts are not surprised. Even in the late 1990s and in 2000-2001, when the dead al Qaeda leader was involved in preparing the 9/11 terror attacks on New York's Trade Center and Washington - whose success he later admitted had surprised even him - he was never in direct contact with the 19 hijackers.
Their leader Mohammed Atta made his preparations from Hamburg, Germany. And even when Bin Laden and Atta met, apparently three times, they talked more in general terms about the impact of a mega-attack on America's standing as an economic and world power than about the nuts and bolts of the attack itself.
The extensive material found in Bin Laden's compound is therefore more a testament to his terrorist ideology than a hard intelligence trove that could avail the American counter-terror campaign against al Qaeda in Pakistan, Yemen, North Africa, the Far East and Central Asia.
The captured materials show, say debkafile's counterterrorism sources, that the 9/11 attacks on America which consummated the Bin Laden conception of terror in action, was accepted as a lofty ideal by the various al Qaeda networks around the world, although most found it unattainable. Therefore, no other major terrorist attack against the West has come anywhere near to achieving the goal he set, which was to topple America as a military and economic power, or undermine an allied political system. The only exception was the multiple train bombings in Madrid in March 2004, in which 191 people were killed and 1,800 injured, forcing Spain to pull its troops out of the Iraq war. Not even the July 7, 2005 attacks on London transport had the effect designated by bin Laden. The captured files show Bin Laden is attaching no strategic importance to lone wolf operations of the kind the US Secretary of the Interior referred to Thursday – unless they use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. So far, there is no indication that Al Qaeda ever had the practical ability for this sort of attack.

Shin Bet: Gaza arms smugglers operating freely since fall of Mubarak
By Reuters/Haaretz
Smugglers transporting arms into the Gaza Strip are operating almost freely after a change of leadership in Egypt, Israel's Shin Bet security agency said Friday.
A report by the domestic intelligence agency said with Egypt's new leaders preoccupied with stabilizing their country, "governance in Sinai is not high and this allows smugglers to operate almost without hindrance. "Today the Egyptian regime's attention is focused on stabilizing the new government and this eases the Sinai smugglers' task," the report said.
The Sinai forms a huge desert buffer zone between Egypt and Israel, which sealed an historic peace treaty in 1979 after fighting two wars against each other in less than a decade.
The Bedouin people of the Sinai, for whom smuggling is a major source of income, was the group mostly involved in getting weapons into Gaza to supply the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas which controls the enclave and other smaller militant groups, it said  It also reaffirmed Israel's belief that Iran, in seeking to strengthen its influence in the region, was supplying Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants with "choice military-grade weaponry." It said hundreds of rockets with a range of 20-40 kilometres (12-25 miles), at least 1,000 mortar bombs, some anti-tank missiles and tons of high explosives and raw material to make high explosives had entered Gaza since the start of 2010. Outgoing Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin, who hands over the role to his successor Yoram Cohen on Monday, said in a rare speech earlier this week: "In Egypt it is very hard to assess what will happen in the elections expected in the summer ... it's not a good idea to rest on our laurels." Even under the rule of ousted president Hosni Mubarak, who was considered a partner of Israel in the Middle East, "Egyptian actions did not significantly reduce the scale of munitions smuggling," the report said. But matters have now worsened. The Shin Bet report said munitions were transported from Iran to Sudan, across Egypt's Sinai Peninsula and through smuggling tunnels into the Gaza Strip. Sudan accused Israel of launching an air strike in April near Port Sudan airport that killed two people. Khartoum has close ties with Hamas, but denies giving it direct support. Israel is also suspected of carrying out an air strike on an arms convoy in eastern Sudan in 2009 for which it has neither admitted nor denied responsibility.

Syrian disappointments and the Arab reality
12/05/2011
By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashid/Al SharAlawsat/
Damascus must be shocked from what it hears and sees from its former regional allies. Turkey has not ceased its denouncement of Syria's security practices, and public criticism of the Syrian leadership. Qatar has also dealt with Damascus negatively, with regards to what is happening there. In an acrobatic move, Hamas turned on Damascus, flew to Cairo and reconciled with the Palestinian Authority, in the absence of the Syrian leadership that is busy putting out fires in Daraa, Duma, and the rest of its burning cities.
The Syrian regime must now see the failure of its foreign policies and not only because of the positions of these three parties, but more importantly because it overlooked local factors in its foreign dealings. What is the point of Syria's alliance with Iran, which has become a burden, and where are the allies of the good days? The three Syrian disappointments; Turkey, Qatar and Hamas, reflect the realism that exists in the management of Arab politics. No state wants to be seen alongside a regime that is in conflict with its own people, unless it is going through the same thing. After the fall of the regime in Egypt, the myth of the iron regime was dispelled, and states learned to delay the disclosure of their real positions for a while. In addition, the horror of repression in Syria makes Arab governments an embarrassment to their citizens. No government could provide open support unless it was engaging in similar practices itself.
This reminds me of the embarrassing position I went through about 30 years ago, when I was a university student in the United States, whilst working at the same time as a reporter for "al-Jazeera" newspaper. On my way home during the university's Christmas holidays, the editor Khalid al-Malik asked me to stop over in Damascus in order to complete some work for the newspaper. In the lobby of a hotel I sat next to a Saudi diplomat, and we talked about the situation in the Syrian capital, where there was a military deployment and the route to the Sheraton Hotel contained many barriers and checkpoints. At that time, what became known as the "massacre of Hama" was taking place. I told the diplomat that I was here on a task unrelated to the incident, and he advised me to leave immediately. It was feared that my presence would contribute to the looming political crisis, because a former colleague had passed me in Damascus. It was said that the late President Hafez al-Assad seemed like he wanted to talk about what had happened to the Saudi press, and in order to conduct the interview, Syrian media officials had found an obscure journalist like me who was on a visit to the capital. [It was said that I would be] quickly brought to the president for a photo opportunity, and then conduct an interview about the good relations and communication with Saudi Arabia. In short the diplomat told me that such an interview would not be published. It was clear that everyone was deliberately distancing themselves from the regime which was engaged in a bloody confrontation with its citizens. The next day I left the city which was covered in white snow.
Today history is repeating itself. Here is a friend of Damascus, Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey, publicly warning the Assad regime that his government cannot remain silent about what is happening there in terms of repression, especially with the Turkish elections coming up.

A conspiracy against Egypt
12/05/2011
By Osman Mirghani/Asharq Al-Awsat/
Last week the Supreme Council of the Egyptian Armed Forces warned that "unidentified" websites are working to destabilize [the country] and incite sectarian sedition and violence by broadcasting rumors. In a message posted on its own internet website, the Supreme Council noted that the sources of such websites, including pages on Facebook, were unidentified, and some of these web-sites were based in foreign countries, making it difficult to identify their owners. The Supreme Council concluded its message by warning people to be wary of rumors, or calls for sedition, made on the internet or elsewhere, for these aim to sow fear and suspicion, undermine Egypt's stability, and spread chaos.
A few days after this warning, the poor neighborhood of Imbaba in Cairo, which is considered one of the city's most densely populated areas, witnessed sectarian violence that resulted in 12 deaths and left more than 180 people injured. This led to Prime Minister Essam Sharaf cancelling his Gulf tour, despite its importance, in order to attend an emergency cabinet meeting to discuss the repercussions of this event. It is interesting that the clashes erupted following rumors that a Coptic woman was being held against her will in the Church of Saint Mina because she wanted to convert to Islam. This resulted in crowds of people, including Salafists, gathering in front of the church demanding her release. Matters soon developed into clashes where bullets and even Molotov cocktails were used, whilst another church in the neighborhood was set on fire, thus pouring more fuel on the burning flames of sectarian tension.
This is a "war of rumors" being waged by those who want to transform the Egyptian revolution from a wedding into a funeral; they are working to spread chaos and destabilize security to increase frustrations in the hearts of the people and to quell the spirit revived by the Tahrir Square revolution. Sectarianism is the greatest threat to Egypt, just as frustration is the revolution's most dangerous enemy; the former results in the fragmentation of the fabric of society, placing the entire country on the verge of a serious crisis, whilst the latter erodes the morale of the people and causes fear and doubt to supersede the great hopes for change.
The war of rumors, and rogue internet websites, is nothing new; this is something that has accompanied the Egyptian revolution since the early days, initially with the aim of frustrating the revolution, and then later trying to abort this. People spoke, at various levels, about a counter-revolution aiming to create chaos and disrupt the steps towards democratization in a country with an indisputable role and ability to influence its surrounding environment. Internally there are forces that want to thwart the revolution, whilst others that are seeking to seize control of it; there are those who are afraid for the revolution, and others who are afraid of it. While externally, there are also those who want to set back the hopes of the "Arab Spring". The problem is that matters have reached the extent that some people in Egypt (as well as in Tunisia) are now talking about the "Algerian scenario", in the sense of the presence of parties working to create confusion, thus creating conditions for an Islamist victory in the upcoming elections amidst this tense atmosphere. The objective of this is to prompt the military to intervene under the slogan of "saving the country".
In Egypt specifically, such conversations are also fuelling sectarian tensions, where the Coptic community is now feeling concerned by the rise of the Islamists, and in particular the extremism of the Salafists, who suddenly raised their voices in Egypt following the revolution. The direction of many of the Salafist actions and statement is a subject of increasing concern for the Copts, who are fearful of the "Iraq scenario", which saw terrorist and extremist movements target Christians in order to displace them.
It is striking that the pace of sectarian incidents in Egypt has accelerated since the revolution, from the burning of a church in the center of Atfih, Giza, and clashes that killed 13 people, to Islamists cutting off the ear of a Copt in Upper Egypt, and then demonstrations against the appointment of a Copt to the position of Governor of Qena. In the context of this continuing escalation, several demonstrations have also been organized in the past few weeks to revive the issue of Camilia Shehata and Wafaa Constantine, two married Copts who sparked wide controversy months ago after it was rumored that they were being imprisoned in a Church against their will because they wanted to convert to Islam.
The issue of sectarian strife has become the biggest threat to Egypt and its revolution, and indulgence or negligence can no longer be tolerated. The Copts, with estimates on their total population varying between six and ten million, represent an integral part of Egyptian society; they are not newcomers or outsiders, and there are many Copts who have done great service to Egypt. Throughout its history, Egypt was a model of coexistence, before certain movements of intolerance and religious extremism appeared, threatening to destroy its national unity and disrupt the fabric of its society. Following a wonderful example of cohesion during the days of the revolution, today movements and voices are looming, rejecting the principle of equal citizenship for all, seeking to marginalize minorities, and attempting to impose their view on everyone.
It is necessary to protect the revolution, but protecting the homeland and its unity is a sacred duty. If the basics of democratic transformation allow freedom of expression and association, then the protection of democracy requires the rule of law and the protection of the rights of all citizens equally and without discrimination. The law must remain above all else, and an independent judiciary must be the first recourse. It is not the right of any movement or group of people to set fire to houses of worship, or to organize rallies demanding that individuals be handed over to them, in order to confirm their religious affiliation. If someone is being held against their will, it is the law that will protect them...this is the manner in which people should behave. Egypt is currently going through a difficult transition, and revolutions are usually most fragile during this phase. However, the revolution requires patience, perseverance and vigilance in order to achieve its objectives, and in order to protect itself from those who want to thwart it or abort it by spreading chaos, rumors and discord. At this stage, the Egyptian army, which provided a sublime model in its discipline and commitment to protecting the homeland when it refused to use arms against its own people, must now strengthen channels of communication and consultation with other civil and political social forces in order to integrate efforts to protect the revolution and national unity, and in order to overcome the feelings of anxiety and frustration at this sensitive stage.

But where are the republics?
12/05/2011
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/The first reaction to the decision of the GCC summit in Riyadh to welcome the request of Jordanian kingdom to join the Council, and at the same time inviting the Kingdom of Morocco to join was to ask: is this an alliance of monarchies?
The answer; why not? There is nothing wrong with that. According to what an Arab official told me previously, "Arab monarchies enjoy legitimacy, and [in such systems] popular demands for reform do not affect the ruler or the regime", but rather legislation, laws and so on. The pressing question here is: are our republics fundamentally republic? In Arab republics the presidents remain in power longer than kings and princes. Power is then bequeathed, even in state institutions, and not only at the top of the pyramid. It is suffice to consider the situation in Libya, and the role of Gaddafi's sons.
The key factor today, with regards to the political earthquake that has struck the region as a whole, is that monarchies do not kill their people, but are in fact more flexible in accepting their demands, and more connected and closer to them. Similarly, monarchies did not bargain with their Arabism and did not use it as a commodity. But is this the entire story? Of course not.
Accepting the request of Jordan to join the GCC has great significance, and provides many benefits to all parties. Through Jordan's accession, it means the spread of more stability to the country as a whole, and the first security steps to block the mere thought of the "alternative homeland". Of course, some will say that Jordan is a state in confrontation with Israel, and this means that the entire Gulf is now also in confrontation. The repost to this is clear; Jordan today is a state with peaceful relations with Israel on the one hand, and on the other hand, the Gulf States have contributed to, and participated by all means in supporting the Arabs in their struggles and wars against Israel for six decades, and without being in direct confrontation. Therefore, Jordan's accession, as well as Morocco's should it decide to accept, mean that the Council will be a focal point consisting of prudent political entities, countering the threat of non-Arab regional forces against them, first and foremost Iran and its agents. This is a matter that all the Gulf countries have been exposed to, as well as Jordan and Morocco.
The entry of Jordan and Morocco into the GCC is not merely a superficial gesture as some say, but it disproves the argument that the GCC is an exclusive club for the rich. Politically speaking, the entry of the two monarchies Jordan and Morocco can be considered a message that the countries of the Council do not object to political reform, as Jordan and Morocco are constitutional monarchies. In addition to what is happening in GCC countries such as Kuwait, Bahrain, and elsewhere, it also means that the time for political reforms in all GCC countries has come, without exception.
Of course, the benefit that the GCC draws from Jordan, and Morocco if it joins, is that the political influence of this important bloc will be expanded in front of the international community. This may be the nucleus and catalyst for joint Arab action, based on new foundations. Of course, the public are still awaiting answers on many questions, and this is a task for Council members, but it is important here that everyone unites and works together, and this is certainly a good thing.

Bkirki drops the ball
May 13, 2011 /Daily Star
A long-heralded “spiritual summit” was convened Thursday in Bkirki, the seat of Lebanon’s Maronite patriarchate. On hand were leading figures of the country’s sects. On the agenda was, supposedly, a group of topics that would provoke little in the way of controversy. However, before the proverbial ink was even dry on the post-summit joint statement, the objections began to appear. All it took was a “counter-statement,” by the Higher Shiite Council, to torpedo the Bkirki declaration, and send everything back to square one.
Statement number one, issued from the patriarchate, contained the expected list of items deserving the support of everyone: national unity, patriotism, dialogue and strengthening the performance of the state.  Statement number two, from the council, expressed objections about item 6 on the list, concerning the right of “the state” to liberate Israeli-occupied territory. Naturally, the problem was that “ the people and the resistance” were left out.
It would be easy to categorize Thursday’s meeting as an abject failure, but this is too harsh. The clerics, who rarely convene in such multi-sided settings, actually sat down and discussed things. More significantly, they are in agreement about, it appears, many things. A disagreement later surfaced, but this was expressed by using fax machines, emails and the media, not bombs or bullets to relay the position. It is essential to see Lebanese political and religious leaders keep their disagreements confined to the political arena, and not in the military or “security” arena.
But while the meeting was a step in the right direction, it also exposed some worrying aspects of the domestic scene.
The resistance and its role have been central topics of public debate in recent years. One might have expected that, from among the various sectarian groups that took part in the Bkirki summit, a few people would have anticipated the question of the final statement, and how it would address the resistance. This would have saved the embarrassment of seeing one of the major players publicly wash its hands of the wording of the final communiqué.
In the end, ignoring the fact that the country is divided over the question of the resistance leads nowhere. Workable solutions that enjoy the support of all sides are needed.
The Bkirki conclave will be remembered for the statement and counter-statement, and a failure to realize that whether one likes it or not, the resistance remains a controversial issue. The debate was one thing before 2000, and then it changed; after 2005 there have been further developments in the centrality of the issue. There is no use ignoring this fact. By dropping the ball on this central issue, the clerics have merely re-affirmed that there is an elephant in the room, which no one is debating in serious and peaceful fashion. The only direction to move now is forward, since the country is still at square one.

Israel has only one option when it comes to Iran
Israel's right entertains the myth that the country can solve every problem by resorting to force, rather than diplomacy. If Israel were to establish win-win interactions with its neighbors, its decision makers would have to totally change that mentality.
By Carlo Stenger /Haaretz
http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/strenger-than-fiction/israel-has-only-one-option-when-it-comes-to-iran-1.361290
Albert Einstein used to say that insanity can be defined as continuing to do the same thing, while expecting different results. That makes Israel’s right-wing the epitome of insanity. It keeps trying to solve all of Israel’s problems by force, and consistently expecting the result to be other than what it was in the past.
Israel tried to solve the Lebanese problem by force and created Hezbollah; it tried to solve the Palestinian problem by force and created Hamas. It has tried to vanquish Hamas by force, and is gradually getting Al-Qaida in its stead. Now Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is insisting on solving the Iranian problem by force, trying unsuccessfully to convince the world that he is right. Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan, who could certainly not be considered a starry-eyed leftist, made a blunt statement last week of great importance: The idea of attacking Iran from the air is "the stupidest thing I have ever heard", he said.
A few days later, two other past Mossad chiefs, Ephraim Halevy and Danny Yatom, agreed with his judgment. Our politicians, who have always spoken highly of Dagan, felt uncomfortable with his statement, but limited their criticism to saying that not everything needs to be brought to the public stage.
Dagan made clear what is already rather well known: a confrontation with Iran would exact an enormous price on Israel. We would be under rocket attack from both Iran and Hezbollah, potentially for months. The human, economic, and political costs could be exorbitant - and through it all, Israel would not have neutralized Iran’s nuclear program.
Dagan went further in his declarations by stating overtly that Iran would never use an atomic bomb against Israel, thus undermining Netanyahu’s endless warnings that the next holocaust is around the corner.
Netanyahu doesn’t want Dagan to say that Israel has no real military option because he has made it part of his image that as prime minister, he will solve Israel’s Iranian problem.
Dagan has made clear that despite Netanyahu’s insinuations, Israel doesn’t actually have the real option of taking out Iran by air strikes. What Israel has succeeded in doing - according to a plethora of sources – is slowing Iran's nuclear ambitions by infecting its computers with the Stuxnet virus.
Netanyahu and his government do not want to put forth Israel's limitations for public discussion. Such an admission runs counter to the notion that Israel can deal with each of its security issues on its own, without help from any partner. More importantly, such an admission means abandoning the myth that Israel can solve every problem by resorting to force, rather than diplomacy, if necessary.
Israel cannot solve the Iranian problem by force. Period. Dagan’s remarks show that Israel’s whole conception of foreign policy and its management of security risks must undergo a radical change. The mantra that Israel can and should rely only on its own devices for defense has become useless. Nothing less than a paradigm change is in order.
Israel’s only viable strategy on Iran is to join the worldwide attempts to weaken that regime. U.S. President Barack Obama, who Netanyahu depicts mostly as too soft on Iran and too weak in his Middle East policy, has put together the most crippling set of sanctions to date, ones which are having a devastating effect on the Iranian economy.
In due course, this raises the possibility that the Iranian regime can indeed change. Most experts on Iran agree that a very different state could emerge in place of the current regime, potentially even to become a functioning democracy.
Forging a peace agreement with Syria would also help weaken Iran, as it could substantially destabilize Hezbollah and force Hamas to change its policies, thus depriving the Islamic republic of its proxies to attack Israel. Weakening Iran also requires a restoration of Israel’s relations with Turkey, a country which must be pulled from out of Iran’s orbit. That is an option, however, that cannot be realized as long as our foreign minister and his deputy do their all to aggravate Turkey at every conceivable opportunity.
This paradigm change, of establishing win-win interactions with Israel's neighbors, means our decision makers must totally change their mentality. Such a change in mentality cannot happen easily, because Israel's political left has in the past misrepresented peace as a as a messianic promise in which sheep and wolves would dwell together for eternity. The resulting disappointments have made Israel’s electorate weary of giving peace another chance.
A realistic peace camp must make clear that taking the road of peace is not a foolproof way for Israel to achieve total security for all generations to come. Risk-free strategies do not exist – certainly not in the Middle East. There are only ways to balance risks entailed by different strategies.
Seeking peace with our neighbors is not a messianic vision. Yes; it is based on values of cooperation and justice rather than unilateral power; but it is also a strategy that needs to be carefully calibrated. Despite its perils, it primarily has advantages ranging from the development of positive relations with our neighbors to ending Israel’s international isolation.
The right’s insistence on the status quo is not only risky, it will unfailingly lead to the end of Israel’s existence as a democratic country with a Jewish character. It has proven to be incapable of dealing with Hamas, Hezbollah or any of Israel’s other major security threats.
Striving for peace is a strategic option far superior to the right’s tactic of stalling, because the perils of peace do not endanger Israel’s long-term survival: rather, it offers a positive vision for Israel’s future.

Freeing Israel from its Iran bluff
Posted By Trita Parsi
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Foreign Policy/
http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/05/11/freeing_israel_from_its_iran_bluff
One of the great bluffs in the foreign policy community in the previous decade was that Israel would have no choice but to attack Iran's nuclear facilities unless Washington stepped up and took military action first. With predictable frequency since the mid-1990s, reports emerged claiming that Israel was months, if not weeks, away from bombing Iran. And every time a new dire warning was issued, a new rationale was presented to convince the world that the latest Israeli warning was more serious than the previous one. The Israeli threats, however, were bluffs all along. Israel did not have the capacity to take out Iran's nuclear facilities. But the huffing and puffing ensured that the American military option remained on the table; that Washington would not deviate from the Israeli red line of rejecting uranium enrichment on Iranian soil; and that the Iranian nuclear program was kept at the top of the international community's agenda.
But the persistent bluffing also carried a price. The Israeli narrative on Iran has grown increasingly alarmist, desperate, and existential over the past 15 years. Inflating the Iranian threat served several purposes domestically. It provided Israeli Prime Ministers Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres a rationale to push for peace with the Palestinians in the 1990s, while more recently Benjamin Netanyahu has used it to resist pressure from Washington to do just that. But the domestic benefits came at the price of limiting Israel's options and flexibility vis-à-vis Iran. As Israeli politicians built up the Iranian threat and established a near-consensus that Tehran constituted an existential threat, it became increasingly difficult for any Israeli politician to walk back the threat depiction without losing critical political capital at home. As a result, there was a steady escalation of the threat depiction from Iran and no clear ways to de-escalate.
I wrote about this in the Forward in late 2007, pointing out that Israel was suffering from strategic paralysis due to its inability to adjust to the region's new realities and walk back its alarmist position on Iran. Today, Israel's strategic position in the region is at even greater risk. In the past few years, for instance, tensions have steadily increased between Israel and Turkey with the friction reaching a boiling point after the Gaza flotilla incident in 2010. As a result, the strategic alliance with Turkey seems to be lost for the foreseeable future. Now, with the fall of the Mubarak regime in Egypt, Israel has lost its most important Arab ally. Thus, the cost of the strategic paralysis is greater today than it was even a few years ago.
Against this backdrop, statements by both Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and former Mossad Chief Meir Dagan in the past few days have stirred the political pot in Israel and made headlines worldwide. Speaking at a conference in Jerusalem, Dagan said that bombing Iran's nuclear installations would be "a stupid idea," adding that military action might not achieve all of its goals and could lead to a long war. Numerous Israeli officials have derided him for undercutting the pressure on Iran.
Yet, Dagan is not the first Israeli to contradict the official Israeli line shortly after leaving office. His predecessor at the Mossad, Efrahim Halevi, challenged a related Israeli talking point on Iran after having retired -- the idea that the Iranians are irrational and as a result neither containment nor diplomacy can be pursued. "I don't think they are irrational, I think they are very rational. To label them as irrational is escaping from reality, and it gives you kind of an escape clause," he told me in 2006.
Similarly, on the eve of his departure from political life, outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert delivered a stinging parting shot in 2008 questioning the feasibility of an Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Olmert told the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth that Israel had lost its "sense of proportion" when stating that it would deal with Iran militarily. "What we can do with the Palestinians, the Syrians and the Lebanese, we cannot do with the Iranians," Olmert said. "Let's be more modest, and act within the bounds of our realistic capabilities," he cautioned.
One of the few Israeli leaders who has consistently cautioned against Israel's alarmist line on Iran is current Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Earlier this week, he warned against hysteria on the Iranian threat and argued that Iran is unlikely to attack Israel with a nuclear bomb. "I don't think in terms of panic," he said. "What about Pakistan, some political meltdown happens there and four bombs wind up in Iran. So what? So you head for the airport? You close down the country? Just because they got a shortcut? No. We are still the most powerful in the Middle East." Barak's position on this matter is not new. He warned against making Israel a target of Iran by inflating the Iranian threat as far back as 1993. "We should, therefore, not create a climate of hysteria by setting ourselves up as Iran's main target," Barak said according to Agence France Presse.
Dagan's challenge to the official Israeli line may have been calculated to do exactly what no sitting Israeli Prime Minister seems capable of doing -- breaking the strategic paralysis, and to stop painting Israel in a corner where pressure on the U.S. to attack Iran chips away from Israel's credibility due to its repeated inability to fulfill its threats.
If so, Dagan's move may not just enable Israel to more effectively adjust itself to the new regional realities, it may also enable Washington to address the broader set of challenges presented by Iran that have been neglected -- which include Iran's regional policies, its human rights abuses, and the repression of the Iranian people's struggle for democracy. Dagan's injection of realism, by reducing the nuclear hysteria that has inhibited America's maneuverability, may free Washington to paint itself out of its own nuclear corner and begin working to address the totality of the Iranian challenge.
**Trita Parsi is president of the National Iranian American Council and author of Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the U.S.

March 14’s regrettable minimalism
Michael Young/Now Lebanon
May 13, 2011
It has been a debilitating transition since Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s government fell months ago. One reason is that the majority has proven utterly incompetent in forming a new government. The rapaciousness of some of its members has been disgraceful, exposing the hollowness of the majority’s alleged reformist agenda.
However, direct your criticism at March 14 as well, and that includes Saad Hariri as caretaker prime minister. Hariri is still smarting, justifiably, over the way he was ousted from power. Hezbollah barred the prime minister’s return to office in favor of Najib Mikati, against the wishes of most Sunnis. And then, with Syrian assistance, it flipped Walid Jumblatt, forming a new majority. Since then, Mikati has been bogged down in a grinding government-formation process, and Hariri has had no incentive to assist the majority out of its morass.
But it’s also fair to say that, both in form and content, March 14 has not played the interim period well. The coalition has missed a rare opportunity to bolster its credibility at the expense of its rivals, and more important, to guarantee the continuity of proper governance.
First, the form. In recent weeks, Hariri seems to have disappeared from the political landscape. At a time of political anxiety in the country and rising economic woes, this is no time for the caretaker prime minister to lie low. One can interpret the caretaker role in a minimal or in a maximal way. Hariri has tended to favor the former, clearing out of the prime minister’s office too soon after Najib Mikati was appointed. This created the semblance of a vacuum at the head of the executive, when Hariri could have used the long interregnum to reassert his bona fides as the right person for the job.
Hariri’s absence also heightened a sense that he has put his personal ill feeling above the interests of the state. Many Lebanese believe the caretaker prime minister is still boiling over his sense of betrayal by Mikati, but that it’s not up to the country to pay the price for that sentiment. The accusation may be unmerited, but it does carry great negative weight at a moment when Hariri and March 14, who have portrayed themselves as the paramount defenders of the project of a sovereign state, cannot afford to be perceived as capricious.
Then there is content. Around the time of the February 14 commemoration of Rafik Hariri’s assassination, Hariri and his allies began raising the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons. The caretaker prime minister made several strong statements declaring that the party’s arms had become a major source of national discord. Who can deny they are? However, the way the matter was formulated allowed no room for flexibility. Nothing was put on the table; no quid pro quos were offered. Hezbollah was simply told that it must disarm, with the objective not presented as part of a broader strategy whereby it could become the object of constructive negotiations in the future.
Just demanding that Hezbollah surrender its weapons will lead nowhere. All it will do, in fact, is further strengthen the party among Shia, who will construe calls for disarmament as an effort to marginalize the community. What March 14 must do is integrate that demand into a larger proposal that aims to give Shia more political power in exchange for disarming, but in the context of the state and the Taif reform process. Because March 14 has failed to do so, Hariri’s denunciation of Hezbollah’s weapons has become merely a slogan.
Worse, it has become a slogan that has drifted under the radar, with no one in March 14 raising the subject anymore. This has debased the seriousness of the weapons question, making the public assume that Hariri broached it only as a tactical ploy in his standoff with Mikati.
And then there is the state of affairs in Syria. Wherever one stands on Syrian developments, the caretaker government has taken almost no measures to shield Lebanon from the tremors next door. The blame can be spread around, of course; after all, the government is purportedly one of national unity. However as prime minister, Saad Hariri should take the lead. Lebanon is functioning today as if it were somehow isolated from Syria. Yet the situation there can break down very quickly. We need a government in Beirut that has contingency plans in the event Syrian instability decisively shifts. As things stand, Lebanon is complacently assuming that the Assad regime will crush the protests and maintain an equilibrium in Damascus.
Last February 14, the leaders of the March 14 coalition apologized to their followers. They had made mistakes, they admitted, by taking decisions that jarred with the better instincts of their base. Yet since the government was brought down, the former majority has not done enough to elucidate why it is better than Hezbollah and Michel Aoun. The new majority has been stumbling terribly, but March 14 has exploited this not a bit. Ready your storerooms for fresh apologies.
*Michael Young is opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut and author of The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle, which the Wall Street Journal listed as one of its 10 standout books for 2010. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Crime Wave in Egypt Has People Afraid, Even the Police
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK
Published: May 12, 2011
The New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/13/world/middleeast/13egypt.html?pagewanted=2&_r=2&ref=world
CAIRO — The neighbors watched helplessly from behind locked gates as an exchange of gunfire rang out at the police station. Then about 80 prisoners burst through the station’s doors — some clad only in underwear, many brandishing guns, machetes, even a fire extinguisher — as the police fled.
“The police are afraid,” said Mohamed Ismail, 30, a witness. “I am afraid to leave my neighborhood.”
Three months after the ouster of Hosni Mubarak, a crime wave in Egypt has emerged as a threat to its promised transition to democracy. Businessmen, politicians and human rights activists say they fear that the mounting disorder — from sectarian strife to soccer riots — is hampering a desperately needed economic recovery or, worse, inviting a new authoritarian crackdown.
At least five attempted jailbreaks have been reported in Cairo in the past two weeks, at least three of them successful. Other attempts take place “every day,” a senior Interior Ministry official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk publicly.
Newspapers brim with other episodes: the Muslim-Christian riot that raged last weekend with the police on the scene, leaving 12 dead and two churches in flames; a kidnapping for ransom of a grandniece of President Anwar el-Sadat; soccer fans who crashed a field and mauled an opposing team as the police disappeared; a mob attack in an upscale suburb, Maadi, that hospitalized a traffic police officer; and the abduction of another officer by Bedouin tribes in the Sinai.
“Things are actually going from bad to worse,” said Mohamed ElBaradei, the former international atomic energy official, now a presidential candidate. “Where have the police and military gone?”
The answer, in part, is the revolution’s legacy. Public fury at police abuses helped set off the protests, which destroyed many police stations. Now police officers who knew only swagger and brute force are demoralized.
In an effort to restore confidence after the sectarian riot last weekend, the military council governing the country until elections scheduled for September announced that 190 people involved would be sent to military court, alarming a coalition of human rights advocates.
After an emergency cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Essam Sharaf reiterated a pledge he made before the riots: The government backed the police in using all legal procedures, “including the use of force,” to defend themselves, their police stations, or places of worship.
It was an extraordinary statement for a prime minister, in part because the police were already expected to do just that. “This may be the first time a government ever had to say that it was fully supporting its police,” said Bahey el-din Hassan, director of the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies. “It is an indication of the seriousness of the problem.”
Many Egyptians, including at least one former police officer, contend that the police learned only one way to fight crime: brutality and torture.
Now police officers see their former leader, Interior Minister Habib el-Adly, serving a 12-year prison term for corruption and facing another trial for charges of unlawful killing. Scores of officers are in jail for their role in repressing the protests.
“They treated people like pests, so imagine when these pests now rise up, challenge them and humiliate them,” said Mahmoud Qutri, a former police officer who wrote a book criticizing the force. “They feel broken.”
Mr. Hassan, who has spent his career criticizing the police, said he sympathized. Police officers who defended their stations from protesters are in jail, while those who went home to bed are not facing any trial, he said.
“So the police are asking, ‘What is expected of us?’ It is a very logical question, and the problem is they don’t have an answer,” he said, blaming higher authorities.
Shopkeepers say the police used to demand goods for just half the price. Now, said Mr. Ismail, the witness to the police station jailbreak, the officers who visit his cellphone shop murmur “please” and pay full price. “The tables have turned,” he said.
The change in public attitudes is equally stunning, said Hisham A. Fahmy, chief executive of the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt. “It’s: ‘Talk to me properly! I am a citizen!’ ”
The spike in crime is a remarkable contrast to life in the Mubarak police state, when violent street crime was a relative rarity and few feared to walk alone at night. “Now it is like New York,” said Mr. Fahmy, adding that his group, which advocates for international companies, had been urging military leaders to respond more vigorously.
At a soccer match pitting a Cairo team against a Tunisian team, police officers ringed the field until a referee made a call against an Egyptian goalie. Then the officers seemed to vanish as a mob of fans assaulted the referee and the visiting team. Five players were injured, two of them hospitalized, and the referee fled.
When the violence erupted, the police just disappeared,” said Mourad Teyeb, a Tunisian journalist who covered the game. The one policeman he found told him, “I don’t care, I don’t assume any responsibility,” Mr. Teyeb said, adding that he feared for his life and hid in the Egyptian team’s dressing room.
Some see a conspiracy. “I think it is deliberate,” said Dr. Shady al-Ghazaly Harb, an organizer of the Tahrir Square protests, contending that officials were pulling back to invite chaos and a crackdown. “I think there are bigger masterminds at work.”
Interior Ministry officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to discuss the security situation, said the destruction of police stations had contributed to the disorder. The remaining stations are overcrowded with prisoners from other facilities. Of the 80 escapees from the police station, 60 have been recaptured, an officer said.
Mansour el-Essawy, the new interior minister, has called the lawlessness an inevitable legacy of the revolution. Of the 24,000 prisoners who escaped during the revolution, 8,400 are still on the run, and 6,600 weapons stolen from government armories have not been recovered, he said in an interview with an Egyptian newspaper, Al Masry Al Youm.
After the revolution, he said, the police justifiably complained of working 16-hour shifts for low pay. Bribery customarily made up for the low wages, critics say. So the ministry cut back the officers’ hours, and as a result also cut the number on duty at any time. And the sudden loss of prestige made it harder to recruit. “People are not stepping forward to join the police,” he complained.