LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِMay 10/2011

Biblical Event Of The Day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 21,15-19. When they had finished breakfast, Jesus said to Simon Peter, "Simon, son of John, do you love me more than these?" He said to him, "Yes, Lord, you know that I love you." He said to him, "Feed my lambs."He then said to him a second time, "Simon, son of John, do you love me?" He said to him, "Yes, Lord, you know that I love you." He said to him, "Tend my sheep." He said to him the third time, "Simon, son of John, do you love me?" Peter was distressed that he had said to him a third time, "Do you love me?" and he said to him, "Lord, you know everything; you know that I love you." (Jesus) said to him, "Feed my sheep. Amen, amen, I say to you, when you were younger, you used to dress yourself and go where you wanted; but when you grow old, you will stretch out your hands, and someone else will dress you and lead you where you do not want to go."He said this signifying by what kind of death he would glorify God. And when he had said this, he said to him, "Follow me."

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Muslims Attack Christians in Egypt, 12 Killed, 232 Injured/AINA/May 09/11
Hezbollah's (Shamless) Sheikh Naim Qassem must be joking/Now Lebanon/May 09/11
Amr Moussa, The last Nasserist/By Barry Rubins/May 09/11
Syria: President Assad should be brought to book over violence/The Observer/May 09/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for May 09/11
Israel's next challenge: Obama's outreach to Muslim Brotherhood/DEBKAfile
Egyptian Christians Occupy Cairo Square to Protest Muslim Violence/VOA
Miqati Frustrated over Attempts to Throw Cabinet Deadlock Ball in his Court /Naharnet
Robert Ford: U.S. Asking Syria to Immediately End Assistance to Hizbullah /Naharnet
Suleiman Meets Jumblat: Dialogue Best Solution to Ease Tensions between East and West /Naharnet
Several protesters killed as Syria continues crackdown/Los Angeles Times
Syria Escalates Crackdown; 14 Killed in Homs/VOA
Why is the West so sluggish on Syria?/Washington Post
Britain calls for Syria to be refused place on UN Human Rights Council/Telegraph
Black market arms sales up on Syria demand/Daily Star
Q1 oil-product imports to Syria rise 9 percent/Daily Star
Syria blames 'armed gangs' for deadly attack/Aljazira
Syria Broadens Deadly Military Crackdown on Protesters/NYT
Syria Crackdown Drives Activists Into Hiding/WSJ
Report: Iran Increasing Support to Help Assad Kill His People/About news & Issues
What Is Syria Trying To Hide?/Sky News
West risks sending wrong signal on Assad/Financial Times
UBC Journalism School calls for release of journalist Dorothy Parvaz in Syria/UOBC
Jordan says it is working to release 20 Jordanians in Syria?Canadian Press
Gunmen kill 10 Syrian workers on way back from Lebanon: SANA/Daily Star
South Lebanon man kills relative, injures 4 in shooting/Daily Star
Kassem: The state cannot be built according to the mentality of the militia/iloubnan.info
Israeli FM: 'Our answer to terrorism: Open more Israeli missions'/J.Post
Berri: Resistance's arms not in way of forming state/Daily Star
How Apprehensive Should an Israeli Be?/American Thinker
Unlikely Lebanon will have a cabinet anytime soon/Ya Libnan
Security Forces Shoot Demonstrators in Syria, Yemen; Egypt Clashes Kill 12/Bloomberg
Turkey's Middle East drive falters in Arab Spring/J.Post
'Mother-in-law dies' on news of bin Laden killing/AFP
Hezbollah voices optimism over Cabinet formation/Daily Star
Berri: Regional Turmoil Should Compel Lebanese to Consolidate 'Immunity' /Naharnet
WikiLeaks: Hariri Says Iran Has Taken Control of Lebanon /Naharnet
WikiLeaks: Al-Muallem Urges U.S. Not to Be Linked to Lebanon, Calls for Peace Talks with Israel /Naharnet
WikiLeaks: Miqati Described Demianos Qattar as Smart but Lazy /Naharnet
WikiLeaks: Murr Said Hizbullah Intended to Kill him, Qaida Planned to Attack Lebanese Plane /Naharnet
Gueant: Paris Should Congratulate Itself for Helping Lebanon, Syria Exchange Embassies /Naharnet
Report: Lebanese Consul-General Leaves Australia Over Fears of Arrest /Naharnet
Fatfat: Mikati fell into Hezbollah’s trap/Now Lebanon
Jumblatt visits Qabbani, anticipates spiritual summit/Now Lebanon
Al-Hayat: Hezbollah, Amal negotiators ‘test Syrian intentions’ on cabinet formation/Now Lebanon

Egyptian Christians Occupy Cairo Square to Protest Muslim Violence
Posted GMT 5-9-2011 2:18:27
(VOA) -- Thousands of Coptic Christians protesting Egypt's latest round of deadly sectarian violence are calling for the removal of the country's top military ruler, and are vowing not to leave a sit-in outside the state television building in Cairo.
By late Sunday, demonstrators were demanding that Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi step down and that the arsonists who burned two Coptic churches be brought to justice. Protesters also want to make it a crime to instigate religious violence. Earlier in the day, fighting broke out when Muslim youths attacked the protesters.
State media have reported that 12 people were killed and more than 220 wounded during two days of sectarian clashes that began late Saturday in the poverty-stricken Cairo slum of Imbaba. Medical sources said 65 of the injured were shot.
Witnesses say a group of about 500 conservative Salafist Muslims converged on a Coptic church in response to rumors that a Christian woman was being held there to prevent her from converting to Islam. Other reports said the crowd believed the woman had already converted and was being prevented from marrying a Muslim man.
Egypt's civilian leaders have promised a swift response to the clashes, including more security at houses of worship and a new ban on demonstrations outside churches and mosques. Military leaders said Sunday that 190 people detained in connection with the violence will face trial in a military court.
Hundreds of heavily armed riot police deployed to Imbaba Sunday, stationing military vehicles near churches and blocking access to the Church of St. Mina, where the fighting began.
Egyptian Prime Minister Essam Sharaf canceled a tour of neighboring Gulf states and called an emergency Cabinet meeting in response to the clashes.
Reports say members of the crowd began throwing firebombs and stones, setting some nearby buildings aflame. Security forces fired shots in the air and used tear gas to separate the two sides.
Members of Egypt's extreme Salafi movement have been blamed for other recent attacks on Christians that have met with little interference from the country's military rulers.
Interfaith relationships are a source of tension in Egypt, where Coptic Christians comprise about 10 percent of the country's population of 80 million.
© 2011, Assyrian International News Agency. All Rights Reserved. Terms of Use.

Muslims Attack Christians in Egypt, 12 Killed, 232 Injured--
 5-8-2011 19:41:14
(AINA) -- Christians Copts in the area of Embaba were attacked Saturday evening by Muslim Salafis. The attacks lasted for 14 hours. The Muslims fired guns and rifles and hurled Molotov cocktails at Coptic churches, houses and businesses. 12 Copts were killed and 232 injured.
The church of Saint Mina church was the first to be attacked. According to its pastor Fr. Abanoub the attack started at 5.30 PM on Saturday May 7, when church parishioners noticed a large number of Salafis, estimated at 3000 men, congregating near the church. Anticipating trouble, the army was called. The Salafis went to the church and asked to search it because they believed a Christian girl named called Abir, who had converted to Islam, married a Salafi and wanted to revert back to Christianity, was hiding inside the church. The Muslims circulated a rumor that the husband of Abir received a call from her asking him to save her as she was being "tortured" inside the church.
The governor of Giza said that there are no girls hiding in St. Mina Church. He falsely claimed that things were under control and a "reconciliation" meeting will be arranged for tomorrow. The army later cordoned off the entire district of Embaba.
Father Yohanna Mansour from Giza Bishopric confirmed that no one knows this alleged girl called Abir. He said the congregation was meeting at church and the Salafis wanted to break into the church and force a search to look for this alleged convert, he said in an interview with the Egyptian State TV. "Muslims always come invited to church, but this would have set a precedent that Muslims would use to search our churches." He refused the "reconciliation" meeting and insisted on the application of the law.
According to Fr. Abanoub the Salafis started shooting at 5:30 but the army arrived at 10 PM. "I called everyone, but no one bothered to come." He said six policemen came and left when they saw the shooting. There were also snipers shooting the parishioners from rooftops. "I mourn all those young people who died. We now must ask for international protection."
The second church attacked by Salafis was St. Mary and St Abanob, also in Embaba. Muslims prevented the fire brigade from reaching it. Copts were also shot. This video shows the wounded brought inside the church.
The third church attacked was St. Mary Church in Wehda Street in Embaba, the ground floor of which was completely torched (video).
An apartment complex inhabited by Copts, near St. Mina Church, was set on fire after being looted. Another two houses were torched (video).
Youssef Edward, a deacon at St. Mina Church, said the army and security forces stood watching while Muslims threw Molotov cocktail at homes. He said the Muslims who attacked the church came from outside, as Muslims from the area live peacefully with them. "The army was not able to control the situation, and the mob was chanting 'Islamic', 'Islamic'" (video showing wounded Copts and a dead Copt named Medhat in St. Mina).
As soon as Copts heard of the Salafi attacks, they rushed to protect their churches. There were contradictory reports of Copts using guns to defend themselves.
Witnesses reported the Salafis were wearing Taliban style clothes. "I believe they are of the 3000 Jihadis who returned lately from Afghanistan," Saber Loutfi, one of the Embaba residents told Coptic Free Voice.
Renowned Muslim liberal writer Nabil Sharaf el Din said on the Coptic Hope Sat Channel "The army is either incapable or is an accomplice to the Salafis." He believes that what took place today exceeds anything else that had previously happened to the Copts. "If the army does not takes a stern position with the Salafis they will look real bad." He said that all moderate Muslims and Copts should stick together to overcome the Salafis. In his opinion the Salafis, who were encouraged and nurtured by the old State Security, are like the genie who has come out of the lamp and now cannot be restrained or controlled.
The Bishop of Giza, Anba Theodosius, said "These things are planned. We have no law or security, we are in a jungle. We are in a state of chaos. One rumor burns the whole area. Everyday we have a catastrophe." Addressing the Salafis he said "We will never leave our country".
Most witnesses interviewed asked for international protection of the Copts, as the army does nothing when it comes to attacks on Copts. Others accused the army of complicity.
Camelia Shehata, who the Muslims claim had converted to Islam and was held by the church against her will, appeared today on Hayat Christian TV and said Muslim claims are groundless and that she is 100% Christian. She denied that she had met any of the Salafi sheikhs who claimed they went with her to Al-Azhar to convert to Islam.
A large number of Copts are presently staging a sit-in in front of the US Embassy in Cairo, asking for International Protection for the Copts.
Coptic groups have called for a "million-man" protest in Cairo and Alexandria on Sunday to protest the Embaba attacks. The march will start at the High Court and end in Maspero, in front of the State TV Building.
The funeral of the Coptic victims will take place on Sunday at St. George's Church in Giza.
By Mary Abdelmassih
© 2011, Assyrian International News Agency. All Rights Reserved. Terms of Use.

Al-Rahi: Officials Neglecting People's Demands and Rights
Naharnet/aronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi said on Monday that the Lebanese officials are paralyzing the state while the citizens are trying to preserve it. Al-Rahi expressed his regret that leaders have neglected the people's demands and their rights. He stressed that Lebanon is rich in its religious and cultural diversities. "If the officials do not become aware of this … then Lebanon would lose its value." The Maronite Patriarch reiterated to visiting delegations his regret over the paralysis of constitutional institutions, which "negatively affects the economic situation and reflects in the increasing emigration of youth." During a mass at the Harissa basilica on Sunday, al-Rahi prayed that Lebanon comes out of its crisis and hoped that the relationship between officials would be based on mutual respect.  "Nations are not built by trade, money or seats," al-Rahi said Saturday during a ceremony organized by Radio Charity to honor him and former patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir. Beirut, 09 May 11, 12:48

Fatfat: Mikati fell into Hezbollah’s trap
May 9, 2011 /“Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati fell into a trap laid by Hezbollah, which wants to control state institutions,” Future bloc MP Ahmad Fatfat said on Monday.
He told New TV that it is up to Mikati to decide whether or not to give up on his efforts to form the cabinet. “He fell into a trap and it is clear that he cannot get out of it at the moment,” Fatfat added. “If he wants to appear as a statesman, he must call a press conference, [speak frankly] and excuse himself [from the premiership] afterward if he wants, so that they do not blame him.”Mikati was appointed in January with the March 8 coalition’s backing and has not yet formed his cabinet. -NOW Lebanon

Bellemare’s amendment shows STL is continuing its work, Najjar says
May 9, 2011 /Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar said on Monday that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) amended indictment means that the tribunal is “continuing in full swing.”
STL Prosecutor-General Daniel Bellemare’s submission of an amended indictment shows that “those who buried [the tribunal] wagered on things that did not happen,” the National News Agency quoted him as saying. Najjar added that he does not know “Bellemare’s secrets,” and that he does “not want to know what [Bellemare] is doing. Let the judiciary be independent.”
On Friday, Bellemare filed an amended indictment that will replace the previous indictment he filed in March. The tribunal will reportedly indict Hezbollah members in its investigation of Rafik Hariri’s 2005 assassination. -NOW Lebanon

Lebanese army working to thwart smugglers
May 9, 2011 /The Lebanese army has set up sand berms on roads used by smugglers to cross the Syrian-Lebanese border, the National News Agency (NNA) reported on Monday. Berms have been set up in the Rashaya District in the southern Bekaa, the report added. -NOW Lebanon

Jumblatt visits Qabbani, anticipates spiritual summit
May 9, 2011
Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt met with Grand Mufti Mohammad Rashid Qabbani on Monday morning at Dar al-Fatwa and voiced his anticipation for the “spiritual summit next Wednesday, in which Muslims and Christians will gather.”Jumblatt said that Muslims and Christians together should “affirm coexistence and declare, and we declare with them, solidarity with all Arab peoples, especially the Egyptian people, which today are passing through a critical phase of strife due to incitement from here or there,” according to the National News Agency (NNA). He also voiced hope for “a Syria of stability and reform too, in this critical phase that it is passing through.” He added that he plans to continue visiting spiritual leaders “in this general atmosphere of positivity and openness.” Hundreds of Syrians have been killed since protests erupted in the country in mid-March, while sectarian clashes rocked Egypt over the weekend. -NOW Lebanon

You must be joking, Sheikh Naim Qassem
May 9, 2011 /Hezbollah’s deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem said on Sunday that Lebanon could not be built “with the mentality of militias that seek to create strife and chaos.” Qassem cited WikiLeaks, that seemingly plentiful well of discomfiture, to back up a claim that in 2008, March 14, supported by the US, was buying weapons “to wreak havoc in the country.”
March 14, he claimed, wished to rule Lebanon alone and “prevent others from participating in building the state.” According to this bizarre historiography, such a catastrophic fate was only averted by “vigilant and faithful Lebanese parties,” who were able to “prevent civil strife… and restore stability.”
Where does one begin? Let us humor Qassem and assume that what he is saying has a grain of truth (for Lebanon is a country of half-truths and mirrors). Let us go along with his claim that some elements of March 14 were arming, and let us for the sake of this exercise agree that such activities do indeed fly in the face of the notion of state building. After all, Lebanon knows better than almost any country on earth what it means to have a nation divided by marauding, private armies.
But surely if March 14 was arming (remember we are working on the assumption that it was) – and here we come to the stunning hypocrisy of Qassem’s argument – it could have been because it was inspired by the alarm felt by Lebanon’s other communities that Hezbollah was too. The Party of God, arguably the biggest and most powerful militia in the Middle East, was in fact not only arming (and we are not talking about the odd truckload of AK47s either) but rapidly establishing – to borrow a bon mot from Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati, also from WikiLeaks – a “cancerous” state within a state.
In such a climate of fear and suspicion is there any wonder that other groups might have retreated behind their sectarian sandbags and reverted to more basic instincts? It is mind boggling, therefore, to hear Qassem say that March 14’s so-called arms race prevented the “rise of the state,” when his party, through its activities, was, as it is now, thwarting any notion of the state.
But let us return to May 7, 2008, the day that Qassem says his party foiled the creation of a March 14 militia and the end of Lebanon as we know it. Hezbollah’s reaction to this threat (the rest of us thought it was provoked by the government’s decision to close down Hezbollah’s illegal phone network and sack the head of security at Beirut airport) was to take to the streets of Beirut at the head of a band of “vigilant and faithful parties” and embark upon a three-day orgy of violence that saw the deaths of innocent Lebanese caught in the sectarian crossfire. The “vigilant and faithful parties,” by the way, were none other than Amal and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, hardly proponents of democracy and state building, but then again, what do we know? What happened to non-violence? What happened to resorting to the offices of the state in which Qassem claims to believe? This is, of course, all nonsense. Hezbollah cannot exist within the confines of the state. Hezbollah is, for all intents and purposes, the only militia in the country. Hezbollah’s weapons have influenced national policy over the past five years. These weapons took the party to war with Israel in 2006, they occupied central Beirut in 2007, they invaded Beirut in 2008, and they brought down a government in January of this year, simply because the shadow of international justice loomed. Was that working for the state? One could go on and posit that the Hezbollah-led government-in-waiting has absolutely no interest in the state. For if it had, it could have formed a government in a day, rather than taking three months and still not reaching a decision.
**Naim Qassem should tell us exactly what he means by the “state.” We would love to know.

Al-Hayat: Hezbollah, Amal negotiators ‘test Syrian intentions’ on cabinet formation
May 9, 2011 /Speaker Nabih Berri’s political aide, MP Ali Hassan Khalil, and Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s political adviser, Hussein Khalil, are in Damascus to ascertain Syria’s wishes concerning the Lebanese cabinet-formation process, Al-Hayat newspaper reported Monday. The two headed to Damascus on Sunday to “consult with high-ranking officials in the Syrian leadership on the developments that Syria is witnessing on the one hand, and in the continuing ‘tug of war’ in Lebanon and its effect on delay in the birth off the cabinet,” the paper said, citing an anonymous source in the new majority. The daily said that the visit “reflects a decisive wish to test Syrian intentions regarding cabinet formation and to confirm that Damascus supports expediting the formation process, since it is rumored in Beirut that there are regional and international considerations behind the delay.”Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati was appointed in January with the March 8 coalition’s backing, but has not yet formed his cabinet. March 14 politicians have said that the Syrian government is preventing the Lebanese cabinet from being formed, while it struggles against anti-regime protests that have rocked the country since mid-March.-NOW Lebanon

Syria: President Assad should be brought to book over violence
The Observer, May 9, 2011 /In the Arab Spring, a great deal of violence has been used by regimes against their people. Confronted with these events, the international community has struggled to come up with a coherent response, hesitating over Tunisia and Egypt, then rushing into a military intervention in Libya. Now, as tanks attack another town in Bashar al-Assad's Syria, the response of the EU and the US appears to be based on a wild gamble. The plan appears to be to apply limited sanctions which exclude Mr Assad himself, while targeting others in his entourage, including his brother, Maher. This discriminating approach is meant to split the regime, with Mr Assad nudged back on to the course of reform he appeared to espouse when he succeeded his father a decade ago. How risky the pursuit of that policy has been should be clear as another Syrian town, Baniyas, has come under vicious assault.
The entire policy looks dangerously dependent on wishful thinking. Authoritarian regimes habitually deploy the promise of "liberalisation" and "reform" to prolong their existence in tandem with repression. Most of the states which have faced uprisings in the Arab Spring have tried this tactic. Mr Assad's liberalisation has been so modest as to be invisible in the police state he has overseen. His father's Ba'athist ideology has been effectively replaced by an emerging crony capitalism as he has moved slowly to open up Syria's economy – his sole significant reform.
In these circumstances, and with so little to show for the years of attempted engagement with him, it seems only right to judge him for the murderous acts of the state over which he presides – unless he meaningfully distances himself from that violence. Until then, as the head of a corrupt state, guilty of terrible human rights abuses, he should be held responsible and face sanctions, alongside other members of the regime, for the horrors unfolding in Syria. The international community, through its inaction, is increasingly complicit.
The above editorial was published in The Observer, Sunday’s issue of The Guardian on May 8th, 2011.

The Region: Amr Moussa, The last Nasserist
By BARRY RUBIN
05/08/2011 23:11/J.Post
Amr Moussa, most probably Egypt’s next president, has given a comprehensive picture of his views, a taste of the likely policies of someone about to become the most powerful individual in the Arab world. Moussa, a former Egyptian foreign minister (1991-2001) and head of the Arab League until his resignation takes effect on May 15, is a figure from the old Egyptian regime. But which aspect of the old regime – that of the centrist Hosni Mubarak, the moderate Anwar Sadat, or the radical Arab nationalist Gamal Abd al Nasser? Moussa is the last Nasserist. He knows the next president must also be a populist to survive, so he will bash Israel, the United States and the Egyptian upper class. The hope is that he will be pragmatic enough to restrict his demagoguery to rhetoric. It might seem ironic that a revolution against the old regime ends up electing a figure from the old regime. Yet Moussa perfectly combines experience and name recognition with radicalism. A recent Pew poll shows him with an 89-percent positive rating. Moussa’s prospects look so good because the Islamists aren’t running a presidential candidate, while moderate democrats are restricted to a small urban middle class constituency and four of them are running, thus further splitting that vote.
Another reason Moussa’s election appears likely is his deft use of the anti-Israel card. So identified is Moussa with hostility to Israel that in 2001 a popular song titled “I Hate Israel (I love Amr Moussa)” zoomed to the top of the Egyptian hit parade. Indeed, Moussa is now claiming that much of the reason for his break with Mubarak was his desire to take a stronger stance against Israel. Moussa’s basic argument in his Wall Street Journal interview is that Egypt has obtained nothing from peace with Israel, and that Israel is completely at fault for the lack of an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement. Of course, Egypt has received the return of the Sinai; the reopening of its oil fields and of the Suez Canal; and the opportunity for more trade, tourism and a lower military budget. Failure to take advantage of the latter points was due to Egyptian decisions. In addition, Egypt and Israel had what amounts to an alliance against revolutionary Islamism, particularly Hamas in the Gaza Strip. President Moussa will reverse this policy and see Hamas as an ally, albeit one that he won’t trust. HAMAS IS now starting to believe that by attacking Israel it will have the power to draw Egypt into a war. If that view is not countered decisively by the next Egyptian government, the result will be a return to the 1960s and a terrible major conflict. Unfortunately the current US government cannot be counted on to help eliminate that problem.
As the Wall Street Journal accurately notes: “US and European officials said they don’t see the Egypt-Israel peace agreement in danger in the near term. They say Cairo won’t place in jeopardy billions of dollars in aid.” We’ve seen this kind of economic determinism before, and every time it is applied to Middle East states it has failed. Examples: – Yasser Arafat will make peace with Israel because he wants to get a state and huge compensation funding. – Syria will moderate and turn toward the West – and away from Iran – in order to get trade and investment. – Iran would much rather become wealthy than pursue these silly ideas about spreading Islamist revolution.
Now, here’s what’s really shocking in the interview. To quote the Journal’s account, Moussa “described a political landscape in which the Muslim Brotherhood...
is dominant. It is inevitable, he said, that parliamentary elections in September will usher in a legislature led by a bloc of Islamists, with the Brotherhood at the forefront.”
Think about that. Even Moussa, who is anti-Islamist, admits this.
He is running as an independent, meaning he will have no political party behind him. Thus, Moussa must constantly compromise with the majority in parliament, and he is assuming that it will be an Islamist majority. While I doubt that the Islamists will have an outright majority, I think they will certainly be the largest bloc. That also means they will take a leading role in writing the constitution. After many years in which Egypt was oriented inward, Moussa will reassert a leading Egyptian role in the Arab world. That probably means conciliation with Syria and the recreation of a radical Arab bloc that includes Egypt for the first time in more than 30 years. The best thing that can be said is that neither Iraq nor the Saudis would participate, while the Jordanians would be wary. Egypt will no longer be a US ally; the question is the degree to which it will become an enemy . Finally, he knows that he will have to deliver economic benefits to the masses. But that probably means higher subsidies and more government jobs – policies that will do nothing to improve Egypt’s economy. The worse the economy gets, the more virulent the anti- Israel, anti-American demagoguery will be. We are able to predict this crisis more than six months ahead of time, yet Western countries, media and experts have not yet seen what is coming down the road toward us.
**The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center (www.gloria-center.org) and editor of Middle East Review of International Affairs Journal and Turkish Studies. He blogs at www.rubinreports.blogspot.com

Israel's next challenge: Obama's outreach to Muslim Brotherhood
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 9, 2011,
Israelis celebrate the 63rd anniversary of their independence this week in good cheer. Neither by word nor hint have its leaders referred to the challenge facing the country in the year to come: Barack Obama, President of Israel's best friend and ally, has picked the Muslim Brotherhood movement of the Middle East as his chosen partner for promoting American interests in the Arab world in place of its ousted rulers. His courtship of this organization, which he regards as moderate, was the rationale, say debkafile's Washington and counter-terror sources, behind his bold decision to get rid of Osama bin Laden, a step which his two predecessors, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, held back from although they knew where he was.
Many people forgot the vow Obama made in Cairo on June 4 to mend America's fences with the Muslim world, but he meant every word. His White House has made forging a pact between the United States and the Muslim Brotherhood their ultimate policy objective, although they do not expect to achieve it in one fell swoop.
Bin Laden's death was part of the US president's unfolding game plan
1. He needed to demonstrate unswerving resolve to eradicate the terrorist threat posed by Islamic extremists;
2. The Muslim Brotherhood and its national chapters needed to be held back from falling into the arms of Islamic radicalism if it were to qualify as the centerpiece of America's new beginning with the Arab world.
Another part of the Obama game plan was the "Arab Spring" for paving the way to that beginning by making decades'-old autocratic rulers redundant.
Egypt's Hosni Mubarak had to go first - and he was therefore the only Arab ruler whom the US president told bluntly to leave, unlike Muammar Qaddafi or even Bashar Assad – very simply because Egypt is the center of the many-branched Muslim Brotherhood's and its Shura Council.
More than any other Middle East party or organization, the Brotherhood holds powerful levers of influence in Libya, Syria, Jordan, the Palestinian arena and even in Saudi Arabia through its presence in national religious institutions and broad membership. It is therefore suppressed by all those regimes as it was in Egypt.
Mubarak's fellow Arab rulers watched and noted how quickly and ruthlessly Obama disposed of him and mustered all their resources to defeat the US-backed revolts against their regimes before they too were tossed on the rubbish heap.
Saudi King Abdullah fought back with a divorce from Washington. He is bitterly hostile to the Obama administration – not just over Mubarak's humiliating downfall, but because he believes that a US-Muslim Brotherhood pact would threaten the royal House of Saud by engulfing the clerical institutions which give the throne its legitimacy.
Libya's Qaddafi tried to save himself by pointing to his common cause with the US against a rebellion penetrated by Al Qaeda and other Muslim extremists. When he realized that Washington did not share his view and favored the Muslim elements, he decided to fight back against the rebellion and defy their NATO backers.
Syria's Bashar Assad, who represents a secular regime and creed, has resorted to tanks, artillery and live bullets for a ferocious crackdown to end what he regards as the continuation of the Muslim Brotherhood-led challenge to the Alawite Assad family rule launched first against his father 19 years ago.
Another piece of the Obama game plan was put in place in Cairo Wednesday, May 4, with the inking of the Palestinian unity pact by Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas for Fatah and Khaled Meshaal for Hamas.
After Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu warned Abbas that the Palestinians must choose between peace and Hamas, Abbas is reported by debkafile's Cairo sources as privately asking why the Israelis complained to him. They should complain to Obama, he said. Hamas is an offshoot of the Egyptian and Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood branches. "I am only acting out his guidelines by helping the Brotherhood's integration in Middle East government."
The US president has taken certain steps to get his plan in motion. It will be far from plain sailing. In Israel and in some Western capitals, the military junta which has succeeded Hosni Mubarak in Cairo is not expected to tamely open the door to the Muslim Brotherhood. The Egyptian generals have meanwhile taken the lead in steering Palestinian moves in the hope of focusing the Muslim Brotherhood's attention on the Palestinian issue rather than its drive for power. This device worked for Gemal Abdul Nasser in the 60s and 70s.
But sooner or later, the Brotherhood and Washington will realize that the military rulers fully intend to hold onto power. Instead of standing aside for a Brotherhood presidential candidate, they will run one of their own. President Obama will then be confronted with a hard decision.

Sensing the supportive winds blowing in from Washington, Muslim activists attacked a Coptic Christian church in Cairo Saturday, May 7, sparking a violent sectarian clash that raged through Sunday night leaving more than 20 dead and raising fears of a Muslim power grab.
With the White House busy juggling the balls of its primary Middle East policy, there is not much Israel can do. Therefore, Prime Minister Netanyahu's meeting with Obama on May 21and his speech to the joint Houses of Congress during his Washington visit are not expected to yield momentous changes.
There is not much point in his unveiling any new peace proposal as long as the Palestinians are stuck betwixt and between their next moves, or trying to warn Obama against a US-Muslim Brotherhood rapprochement. While a Brotherhood takeover in neighboring Arab countries, however gradual, would pose a direct threat to Israeli security, Obama in the full flush of success of his initial steps will not be receptive to Israel's arguments

Robert Ford: U.S. Asking Syria to Immediately End Assistance to Hizbullah
Naharnet/U.S. Ambassador to Damascus Robert Ford expressed his country's concern about ties between Syria and Hizbullah and voiced alarm over reported transfers of arms to the Shiite party. In an interview with Radio Sawa, the Arabic language radio station funded by the U.S. government, Ford said "the U.S. administration asked Syria to immediately stop its assistance to Hizbullah and to recognize the sovereignty of Lebanon on its territory as part of friendly ties" between the two countries. The ambassador also urged Syrian authorities to start a "real dialogue" with representatives of the opposition and civil society and end their violent crackdown on protestors seeking democracy in the country. The majority of victims in the past weeks of violence were unarmed civilians, Ford told the radio station, saying the Assad regime should allow peaceful demonstrations in Syria. The ambassador added that he wasn't seeing any serious political dialogue with protestors despite the mass demonstrations. Beirut, 09 May 11, 13:55

Suleiman Meets Jumblat: Dialogue Best Solution to Ease Tensions between East and West
Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman held talks on Monday with Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat on the government formation process and local developments.
The MP left the meeting without issuing a statement. Earlier on Monday, the president had stressed before a Christian delegation the importance of dialogue in tackling the mounting tensions between the East and West. Suleiman expressed his regret over attacks against places of worship, emphasizing that they should never be targets under any excuse. Beirut, 09 May 11, 14:07

WikiLeaks: Hariri Says Iran Has Taken Control of Lebanon
Naharnet/Syria and Iran will turn Lebanon into a second Gaza, feared Mustaqbal movement leader Saad Hariri on May 15, 2008, revealed a leaked U.S. Embassy cable published exclusively in al-Akhbar newspaper on Monday. He made his statements during a meeting with then U.S. Charge d'Affaires Michele Sison in the aftermath of Hizbullah's May 7, 2008, takeover of Beirut, said the WikiLeaks cable. Hariri said that Iran and Syria had taken control of Lebanon and the May 7 clashes have "reopened deep wounds in Lebanon that will be hard to heal", said the cable. Supporting the Lebanese army was the only way possible to confront Hizbullah, he continued. Furthermore, Sison reported that Hariri seemed pessimistic that the Doha meeting aimed at solving the Lebanese political crisis would achieve its purpose. He explained that the wounds have become too deep given the recent clashes, noting however that the army succeeded in restoring order and "prevented a massacre from taking place against Sunnis near Tripoli."He wondered however how long this reality would last. Hariri also had some doubts over then Army Commander General Michel Suleiman's capabilities, but he did not go into any details. Addressing the May 7 clashes, the Mustaqbal movement leader said that Hizbullah incurred much more losses than it had admitted to, including prominent military commander Abu Fadel. His death was main instigator for Hizbullah attack on the Chouf region, he added. "A second round of clashes will take place, but I will not turn my movement into a militia," he stressed. Hizbullah agreed to return to the national dialogue in order to remove its fighters off the streets, "which has tarnished its image in the Arab world," he noted. In addition, Hariri stated that the army had been equipped properly as it should have, then it would have been more capable to confront the M16 rifles and Russian RPG rockets of the Hizbullah "terrorists." Beirut, 09 May 11, 12:11

WikiLeaks: Miqati Described Demianos Qattar as Smart but Lazy
Naharnet/Prime Minister-designate Najib Miqati has allegedly said that he committed two mistakes when he formed the technocrat cabinet in 2005. According to a WikiLeaks cable published by al-Joumhouria daily on Monday, Miqati said the first mistake was to give the Labor Ministry portfolio to Trad Hamadeh. Another mistake was granting Demianos Qattar the finance portfolio. According to the cable, Miqati said that Qattar was smart but lazy and trivial. He only cares about hearing himself brag about his work, Miqati allegedly said. But the premier-designate stressed that the man is beneficial in analysis but not as a person responsible for the administration of a ministry. Beirut, 09 May 11, 11:08

WikiLeaks: Al-Muallem Urges U.S. Not to Be Linked to Lebanon, Calls for Peace Talks with Israel
Naharnet/Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem urged U.S. not to use Syria "as a hostage for the Lebanese situation or the Palestinian-Israeli conflict," stressing that Damascus was ready to make a peace agreement with Israel. In a WikiLeaks cable dated January 2, 2008, al-Muallem discussed with U.S. Senator Arlen Specter and U.S. official Patrick Kennedy the Syrian cooperation with France to seek a political solution in Lebanon. "The U.S. government was wrong in linking the resumption of the peace talks between Syria and Israel, or the Syrian-U.S. relations with the situation in Lebanon and with the actions of Hamas and Hizbullah," the foreign minister said, according to the cable. The foreign minister urged the U.S. "not to take Syria as a hostage" for caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri or Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, saying that "once Syria completes the peace process with Israel, it can play the peace-maker role in the region." Beirut, 09 May 11, 12:02

WikiLeaks: Murr Said Hizbullah Intended to Kill him, Qaida Planned to Attack Lebanese Plane
Naharnet/Caretaker Defense Minister Elias Murr stressed that Hizbullah planned to kill him, in addition to former Premier Fouad Saniora, and Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri, according to a leaked U.S. Embassy cable published in al-Akhbar on Monday. The WikiLeaks cable dated May 14, 2008 reported about a meeting between Murr, Gen. Martin Dempsey, Maj. Gen. Robert Allardice, Director of Strategy, Plans and Policy for the U.S. Military Central Command, and former U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michele Sison. Murr allegedly told his guests that Hizbullah had planted surveillance cameras at Beirut airport in order to target the balance in the government and closely monitor its upcoming target before taking action. He pointed out that the cameras stolen in September 2007 from the offices of a private airline helped Hizbullah plan for an imminent assassination attempt targeting him, Saniora and Hariri. The possible assassination of Hariri would lead to a civil war between Shiites and Sunnis whereby Hizbullah would surely blame Sunni al-Qaida members for the murder. Moreover, Murr revealed a report saying that al-Qaida was plotting for an attack on a plane overflying Rafik Hariri International Airport. During the meeting, the minister praised the Druze performance when fighting Hizbullah in the Shouf mountains during the May 7 events. "The Druze men were barely armed and still they were capable of defeating those who fought Israel in 2006." The Lebanese army is very weak and will be alienated if being forced into a civil war, he told the conferees, according to the cable. Murr stressed that Hizbullah should be weakened by either an Iranian pressure or an Israeli attack in order for the military to defeat the Shiite group. He also mentioned a long term plan to strengthen the Lebanese army gradually by providing it with arms and ammunition. Beirut, 09 May 11, 10:53

Report: Lebanese Consul-General Leaves Australia Over Fears of Arrest
The Lebanese Consul-General to Sydney has reportedly come to Lebanon after a warning he would be arrested if he failed to turn up at an Australian court hearing. A warrant for Robert Naoum's arrest is now in the process of being issued after he ignored an order to appear in court over legal and court expenses he incurred in a failed defamation action against a Sydney journalist, said the Sydney Morning Herald.  Naoum's troubles began almost two years ago when he unsuccessfully took defamation action in the Supreme Court to stop Nabil Dannawi's Arabic website, www.alankabout.com, from publishing material about him, which he argued was defamatory. The website likened Naoum to a mafia leader, and accused him of being a Zionist supporter, a spy, hypocritical, conceited, narcissistic and possibly a bully, said the Australian newspaper. However, he lost the defamation case. The court rejected Naoum's claims. The Consul then appealed to the New South Wales Court of Appeal but lost again and had costs awarded against him. Arguments by Naoum's lawyer that the court should grant him immunity from the debt in the interest of good relations between Australia and Lebanon also failed.
Beirut, 09 May 11, 10:02

LIBAN INTERVIEW
Walid Pharès à « L’Orient-Le Jour » :
Damas risque d’exploiter la liquidation de Ben Laden
pour télécommander des attentats au Liban
Par Michel TOUMA |
vendredi, mai 6, 2011
Analysant les retombées de l'opération ayant conduit à la décapitation d'el-Qaëda, Walid Pharès, conseiller auprès du Congrès US pour les Affaires du terrorisme, souligne que le régime syrien risque d'exploiter la situation pour télécommander, sous prétexte de représailles, des attentats au Liban.
À n'en point douter, tout développement dramatique qui serait susceptible de toucher de près ou de loin au contexte présent au Moyen-Orient risque d'avoir une répercussion quelconque, directe ou indirecte, sur la scène libanaise. Tel est plus particulièrement le cas de la récente liquidation du leader politico-spirituel d'el-Qaëda, Oussama Ben Laden, aux mains d'une unité d'élite américaine.
Dans une interview à L'Orient-Le Jour, accordée par téléphone de Washington où il est établi, Walid Pharès, conseiller auprès du groupe parlementaire sur le terrorisme au Congrès américain et professeur à la National Defense University de Washington, fait le point sur les possibles retombées sur le Liban de la liquidation de Ben Laden, évoquant, par la même occasion, les tenants et les aboutissants de l'opération américaine qui a décapité el-Qaëda.
M. Pharès indique notamment qu'une bonne partie du réseau salafiste implanté au Liban a été récupérée par le régime syrien par le biais d'officiers sunnites syriens totalement acquis au pouvoir en place à Damas. Cette entreprise de récupération, précise-t-il, s'est faite avec le soutien, voire à l'instigation, de la République islamique iranienne et du Hezbollah libanais qui ne peuvent se livrer à une telle démarche pour des raisons communautaires évidentes. Walid Pharès souligne à cet égard que parallèlement à cette faction salafiste encadrée et récupérée par le régime syrien, il existe au Liban un autre courant salafiste, beaucoup moins important au niveau des effectifs, relié directement au commandement d'el-Qaëda (et qui était donc en
relation avec Ben Laden), échappant au contrôle du régime syrien. Cette branche est implantée principalement à Saïda, dans certains secteurs de Beyrouth, ainsi qu'au Akkar, alors que la faction « proche » de Damas se trouve principalement à Tripoli.
Dans le contexte présent marqué par le soulèvement populaire auquel est confronté le régime de Bachar el-Assad, principal soutien stratégique de Téhéran dans la région, M. Pharès exprime la crainte que l'axe syro-iranien exploite la liquidation de Ben Laden pour inciter les salafistes manipulés par le pouvoir syrien à mener au Liban des opérations terroristes contre les intérêts américains et occidentaux, en général. L'objectif sur ce plan serait double : détourner l'attention des troubles en Syrie, ce qui permettrait à l'appareil de répression syrien de poursuivre et de mener à bien son action répressive contre les opposants ; et tenter de « marchander » avec les États-Unis et l'Occident un contrôle, par Damas, des groupes salafistes... contrôlés par Damas !
« Nous avons déjà été témoins d'une telle attitude par le passé (de la part du régime syrien), déclare Walid Pharès. Et aujourd'hui, le pouvoir de Bachar el-Assad étant en difficulté, il pourrait tenter de saisir cette opportunité qui s'offre à lui pour pousser Washington à relâcher sa pression contre Damas et Téhéran. »
Une telle manoeuvre, qui s'inscrit parfaitement dans le sillage de la traditionnelle politique syrienne de pyromane-pompier, n'exclut pas dans le même temps que la faction salafiste non inféodée à Damas tente aussi de se livrer à des actions terroristes antioccidentales au Liban, relève Walid Pharès qui souligne que la menace est donc double : celle émanant d'une possible manipulation syrienne, et celle du courant relié au commandement d'el-Qaëda. Et dans ce cadre, indique aussi M. Pharès, le régime syrien pourrait également se livrer à un autre jeu tout aussi cynique et traditionnel, qu'il a déjà pratiqué : transmettre aux services de renseignements américains et occidentaux des informations sur des éléments salafistes... mais ceux relevant de
la faction échappant à son contrôle.
Les retombées arabes
D'une manière plus générale, quelles pourraient être les retombées de la liquidation de Ben Laden sur les mouvements de soulèvement dans les pays arabes ? Walid Pharès estime à ce sujet que l'opération ayant décapité el-Qaëda ne devrait pas influer négativement sur le cours de l'insurrection populaire arabe, d'autant, précise M. Pharès, que ces insurrections sont en grande partie l'oeuvre « des forces de la société civile, lesquelles, par essence, sont hostiles aux méthodes et à l'idéologie d'el-Qaëda ». « Quant aux islamistes, et plus particulièrement les Frères musulmans, qui sont partie prenante dans les mouvements de soulèvement arabes, ils pourraient sans doute être entraînés dans des débats internes au sujet de l'attitude qui devrait être adoptée après la liquidation de Ben Laden », déclare M. Pharès qui relève toutefois à cet égard que c'est surtout pour des « raisons d'ordre idéologique » que les Frères musulmans ont
condamné l'opération contre Ben Laden. « Mais dans le même temps, souligne-t-il, les Frères musulmans pourraient faire parvenir discrètement des messages aux États-Unis pour souligner qu'ils n'ont pas l'intention de réagir à la liquidation de Ben Laden. L'objectif des Frères musulmans actuellement, indique M. Pharès, est de grignoter le pouvoir et non pas de soutenir el-Qaëda. »
En tout état de cause, M. Pharès souligne que dans le contexte présent, les factions
démocratiques et les forces de la société civile dans les pays arabes ont tout intérêt à accentuer l'insurrection populaire afin de ne pas laisser le champ libre aux courants radicaux, de manière à pousser les pays occidentaux à soutenir davantage les soulèvements populaires, notamment en Syrie, et à s'opposer à la répression sanglante à laquelle continuent de se livrer certains régimes arabes.
L'avenir d'el-Qaëda
En ce qui concerne les retombées de la liquidation de Ben Laden sur la situation d'el-Qaëda, M. Pharès a prédit un éclatement de l'organisation terroriste. « L'organisation centrale traditionnelle, a-t-il notamment déclaré dans ce cadre, sera vraisemblablement dirigée pour un certain temps par Ayman Zawahiri, mais sans doute pas pour un long laps de temps. L'organisation centrale a été affaiblie et la liquidation de Ben Laden ne lui permettra pas de regagner la place qu'elle occupait par le passé. Le gros d'el-Qaëda se situera au niveau des commandements régionaux, notamment au Yémen avec al-Awlaki, en Somalie avec les "shabab", au Maghreb, au Sahel, en Irak, en Indonésie, et évidemment en Afghanistan et au Pakistan avec les talibans. Ces réseaux continueront à être opérationnels et un leader pourrait émerger éventuellement. » Pour Walid Pharès, ce sont ces commandements régionaux qui pourraient principalement se livrer à des opérations terroristes de représailles pour venger la liquidation de Ben Laden.
Parallèlement, des groupuscules plus ou moins proches d'el-Qaëda pourraient également tenter de mener des attaques de représailles. En tout état de cause, précise M. Pharès, les responsables américains concernés disent s'attendre effectivement à des actes de vengeance. Abordant ensuite la conjoncture globale dans la région, M. Pharès note que le timing de l'opération qui a abouti à la décapitation d'el-Qaëda a été dans une large mesure choisi à la lumière des bouleversements qui ébranlent l'ensemble de la région à la faveur des soulèvements populaires. Les principaux pays arabes sont en effet tous préoccupés par les crises internes qui les secouent, de l'Égypte à la Libye, en passant par la Tunisie, la Syrie, Bahreïn, la Jordanie, l'Arabie saoudite, le Yémen, sans compter l'Iran, souligne M. Pharès. De ce fait, le timing n'aurait pas pu être plus favorable.
L'important dans une telle conjoncture reste que la liquidation du symbole et du leader
emblématique d'el-Qaëda n'aboutisse pas à une relance d'un cycle terroriste qui aurait pour fâcheuse conséquence d'occulter les mouvements d'insurrection populaire susceptibles de donner naissance à un nouveau Moyen-Orient.
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