LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِMay 08/2011

Biblical Event Of The Day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 5,38-42. You have heard that it was said, 'An eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth.' But I say to you, offer no resistance to one who is evil. When someone strikes you on (your) right cheek, turn the other one to him as well. If anyone wants to go to law with you over your tunic, hand him your cloak as well. Should anyone press you into service for one mile, go with him for two miles. Give to the one who asks of you, and do not turn your back on one who wants to borrow.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
The FPM Demagoguery/By Ghassan Karam/May 07/11
Access denied/By: Matt Nash/ May 7/11
Syria: Has Communiqué No. 1 been issued?/By Tariq Alhomayed/May 07/11
Pakistan: A Terrorist State/Banaras Khan/May 07/11
Syria's Assad Bashes Heads, Hoping His Regime's Strategic Importance Buys It a Pass/By Rania Abouzeid/May 07/11
Amid Syria's turmoil, Israel sees Assad as the lesser evil/By Joshua Mitnick/07May/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for May 07/11
Rights group: Syria uprising death toll reaches 800/Haaretz/Agencies
The US pushes Pakistani intelligence to the wall/DEBKAfile
U.S. Warns of More Steps Against Syria, Welcomes EU Sanctions/Agencies/Naharnet
EU Slaps Sanctions on 13 Syrian Officials, Spares Assad for Now/AP/Naharnet
30 Dead, Top Dissident Held in Syria 'Day of Defiance' Demos/Agencies/Naharnet
Tanks storm Syrian flashpoint city Banias/AP/Now Lebanon
Germany to deport 200 lebanese charged with crimes/Ya Libnan
Thousands protest across Syria in a 'day of defiance'/Los Angeles Times
SYRIA: Syrian soldiers storm coastal town of Baniyas overnight/Los Angeles Times
Arab states, fearing backlash, keep quiet on Syrian crisis/M.G
Syria kills dozens, US warns of more action (VIDEO)/GP
Jay Carney's newest warning to Syria on violence/LAT
More than 30 killed in Syria as security forces open fire on protesters/DFP
U.S. threatens new action unless Syria stops killings/Reuters
Missing in Syria: a brave journalist, a close friend/IT
World-wide calls for Syria to release Al-Jazeera journalist/TheGuardian
Lebanon prosecutor amends Hariri killing indictment/Xiagua
UN chief warns political tension growing in Lebanon/Daily Star
Aoun: Some politicians are unconscious/Now Lebanon/May 7/11
Ban: Disarmament of Armed Groups Can Best Be Achieved through Political Process /Naharnet
Saniora from U.S. Calls for Equipping Army, Dropping Excuse that Arms May Fall in Hizbullah's Hands /Naharnet
Islamic-Christian Summit in Bkirki to Stress Need to Resume National Dialogue /Naharnet
Khalil Warns against Creating Chaos in Syria: We Demand Salvation Government /Naharnet
Hizbullah and Syria Support Formation of Government 'from Pre-Arab Revolution Era' /Naharnet
Ban: Disarmament of Armed Groups Can Best Be Achieved through Political Process /Naharnet
Strict Security Measures in Bekaa to Prevent Arms Smuggling to Syria /Naharnet
Williams Meets Geagea: We Hope New Government Will Be Formed within Days to Protect the People /Naharnet
Bellemare Files Amended Indictment Containing 'Substantive New Elements' /Naharnet
Miqati Promises Berri to Put off Announcement of De Facto Cabinet Amid Full Discretion on New Proposal /Naharnet
Higher Islamic Legal Council Questions Governmental Vacuum: We Should Respect Miqati's Privileges /Naharnet
Hunger Strike at Roumieh as Justice and Interior Ministry Delegation Listened to Inmates' Demands /Naharnet
Saniora from U.S. Calls for Equipping Army, Dropping Excuse that Arms May Fall in Hizbullah's Hands /Naharnet
Islamic-Christian Summit in Bkirki to Stress Need to Resume National Dialogue /Naharnet

Bellemare submits new indictment, U.N. warns of tensions
May 07, 2011/By The Daily Star Agencies
BEIRUT: U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon warned Friday of rising political tensions in Lebanon over the international court probing the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, after the court’s prosecutor submitted an updated indictment in the case. In the report to the United Nations Security Council, U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon said the increased tension in Lebanon was “fueled among other things by speculation and public pronouncements concerning the proceeding of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon,” a U.N. spokesman said.
Ban’s statement came after the tribunal’s prosecutor, Daniel Bellemare, filed an amended indictment in the case. Bellemare cited further evidence in the Hariri probe as prompting the decision. The Netherlands-based STL, established in 2007 to investigate the assassination of Hariri, has been at the heart of political tension between Lebanon’s rival March 8 and March 14 camps.The indictment, which remains confidential pending review by the pre-trial judge, is widely expected to implicate some Hezbollah members in the assassination, raising fears of sectarian strife. In a statement Friday, Bellemare said an indictment that had been filed on March 11 was replaced in order to “include substantive new elements unavailable until recently.”
A prosecutor spokeswoman declined to comment on what those elements were. “The amendment of an indictment or the filing of new indictments is and will continue to be guided solely by the evidence uncovered by the ongoing investigation,” the prosecutor said in the statement. Hariri was killed by a huge truck bomb, triggering international condemnation that forced Lebanon’s neighbor Syria to end a 29-year military presence in the country. Tension over the STL forced the collapse of Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s Cabinet in Jan 12, when 10 March 8 coalition ministers and a minister loyal to President Michel Sleiman tendered their resignations. The resignations came after the Hezbollah-backed March 8 alliance urged Hariri to disavow the STL, halt payment of Lebanon’s share toward the financing of the STL, withdraw Lebanese judges from the tribunal, end cooperation with the STL, and prosecute the “false witnesses” linked to the U.N. probe. Hezbollah has repeatedly accused the STL of being a U.S.-Israeli plot aimed at targeting the resistance group.Earlier this year, the president of the STL, Italian judge Antonio Cassese, said that the review of the court’s indictment might take longer than expected, while fervently defending the U.N.-backed body against accusations of being politicized. “Through credible, fair and unbiased action, the tribunal thus aims at contributing to reconciliation in Lebanon,” Cassese wrote in his second annual report on the STL, which reviews the work achieved during 2010-11 in the controversial court. In his report, Cassese argued that the STL was an impartial judicial institution established to punish culprits in the Hariri assassination.

The US pushes Pakistani intelligence to the wall
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis May 7, 2011,
The Obama administration is presenting the successful Osama bin Laden hit as an epic American solo operation, unparalleled in military and intelligence annals, while leaning hard on Islamabad to sack certain officers of the powerful military intelligence army ISI including its head Lt. Gen. Ahmad Shuja Pasha, accusing them of keeping the dead al Qaeda leader hidden for eight years. The ISI chief is a close confidant of Pakistan's chief of staff Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani with whom Washington works closely and so the demand for Pasha's head is seen as casting aspersions on him too.American sources reported Saturday, May 7 that five days earlier, just hours after bin Laden was killed in Abbottabad, Pakistan, a high-ranking US official landed in Islamabad with a demand to bring the ISI officers involved in sheltering the al Qaeda leader to book.
It now appears that the iconic jihadi leader first arrived in Pakistani in 2003 and stayed in the small village of Chak Shah Mohammad near Haripur 40 kilometers north of the Pakistani capital. According Pakistani sources, this information came from questioning the Bin Laden wife found and detained in the Abbottabad villa where he was killed. She said the family stayed in the village two and-a-half years before moving to Abbottabad in 2005. debkafile's intelligence sources report that details are slipping out over bin Laden's secret Pakistani addresses over the years. The ISI used some of those compounds as safe houses for terrorists from other organizations. The Abbottabad villa compound is now revealed as having served as a byway station for terrorists from Pakistan-backed organizations heading for Kashmir, long a violent bone of contention with India.
In summer, however, it had a very different use: High-ranking diplomats and officials of the Pakistani foreign office used it as a holiday villa, attracted by the pleasant climate in this North West Frontier town. Far from being off the beaten track, the property was therefore in regular use by the authorities in Islamabad.
In the mounting duel between the Obama administration and Pakistan, two conflicting versions of the bin Laden episode are unfolding, with potentially detrimental effect on the Afghan War and global war on terror.
The Americans have embarked on a two-pronged strategy:
1. Friday, May 6, President Barack Obama was cheered by members of the 101st Airborne Division at Fort Campbell, Kentucky, when he said: "Now in recent days, the whole world has learned just how ready they were. These Americans deserve credit for one of the greatest intelligence military operations in our nation's history." Pakistan was not mentioned.
Obama had just shaken the hands of the Seals members who returned from Abbottabad.
2. Washington is not only cutting Pakistan out of any role in the feat but bent on weakening Pakistani military intelligence and, in particular, the officials tied to Osama bin Laden, on the assumption that they are also in touch with other high-profile al Qaeda leaders and may even be harboring them too. The US also presumes them to be in connection with the very Taliban leaders American soldiers are fighting in Afghanistan.
The Obama administration is vitally interested in weakening the Pakistani factions maintaining those ties and showing Taliban they can no longer be relied on as protection against America's long arm. The US will ultimately corner Taliban's leaders, whether by diplomatic engagement or the methods which ended Osama bin Laden's life.
Pakistan's take is not just different but increasingly resentful: Its military intelligence insists the bin Laden operation would not have succeeded without close cooperation between the CIA and ISI and the two armies – or some factions thereof – which was maintained at least up until President Obama's decision to authorize the Abbottabad raid. This view is supported by some Western counterterrorism agencies engaged in the war on al Qaeda. Pakistani officials suspect the US administration heads is deliberately denying them a measure of credit for the successful mission because, with bin Laden gone, Obama feels confident enough to go straight to the Taliban to negotiate an end to the Afghanistan war and dispense with Pakistan's good services as intermediaries. With the al Qaeda leader out of the way, he wants to see the back of a Pakistan role in Afghanistan. debkafile's counter-terror sources warn that the rising acrimony between Washington and Islamabad may well deter Pakistani intelligence from fingering more wanted al Qaeda figures and their hideouts - or even encourage the ISI to stand aside when Taliban goes for American targets in revenge for bin Laden's termination.

Syria: Has Communiqué No. 1 been issued?
07/05/2011
By Tariq Alhomayed
http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=2&id=25094
For the seventh week in a row, the Syrian people's uprising against the regime has continued, without showing any indication of stopping or weakening, in fact the protests have spread to various geographic regions across Syria. This is something that reflects the strength of the protestors' momentum within the country, and the depth of the crisis that this regime, which is sinking in quicksand, is facing.
This Friday, dubbed the "Friday of Challenge" in Syria, saw new escalations, including previously seen phenomenon, but on a larger scale. We saw the huge number of hand-held banners being carried by the Syrian protests which personally denounced the Syrian president himself, not just his policy of suppression, or his political party. This means that the regime and the Syrian rebels have reached the point of no return, and we can no longer view the protestors as being a minority or belonging to a single sect. This is because the protest movement has taken root in all Syrian cities, including Damascus, Homs, Aleppo, and Hama, as well as the Kurdish region and other cities and regions, including even those that are majority Alawite.
What will the regime do now? Will it rule the people and protect the cities with tanks, and continue as a divided and weak regime, along the lines of the al-Bashir regime in Sudan, which split the country in two in order to stay in power? Will there be an internal coup from within the regime in order to set right what can be set right? Or will this "Friday of Challenge" continue week after week until the army splits – especially as there have been reports of clashes between the army and the security forces in Homs and other regions – and so will we see al-Assad's Syria following in the footsteps of Gaddafi's Libya? These are all good questions! It is clear that the Syrian regime does not understand what is happening, and indeed cannot believe that the people have risen up against it, something that reminds us of the Libyan leader Colonel Gaddafi's famous "Zenga Zenga" speech in which he addressed his people asking "what has happened to you? Why are you acting like this?" It seems that the Libyan regime does not understand that the rules of the game have changed, and that they can no longer govern through fear, in the same manner as Saddam Hussein, the other face of Baathism; this is something that indicates that the end is approaching.
The fact that the rules of the game have changed in Syria has now become clear, and today we have seen the people of Homs, Aleppo, and Damascus come out to protest against the Syrian government. The Syrian regime's suppression of protestors even included the suppression of religious figures, which may serve to further divide the army and security services. Following the protests in Aleppo, the city of merchants, as well as Damascus, and the Syrian regime arresting a prominent imam in the capital, and the protests now engulfing the rural areas, as well as the capital city, in addition to the recorded cases of mutiny in the army, what is left of the regime?
Therefore, protests have broken out in all of these cities, for the seventh consecutive week, and there is talk today about the disappearance of influential Syrian figures from the scene, not to mention the silence of others, particularly as almost everything we hear today is attributed to a military or security source, or a statement from the Syrian Interior Ministry. This is contrary to the normal Syrian mode of operation where the most prominent spokesperson for the Syrian regime was either the president himself, or his media representative Bouthaina Shaaban. All of this raises real questions about the extent of the cracks within the Sryian regime today, which has caused observers to feel as if a Syrian Communiqué No. 1 [along the lines of Communique No. 1 issued by the Egyptian army just days before Mubarak stepped down] has been issued without anybody realizing. Some faces have disappeared, to be replaced by ghostly "sources" and statements, and this raises more questions than answers, and serves as evidence that the Sryian regime itself is its own worst enemy, for it does not want to acknowledge the facts.

Tanks storm Syrian flashpoint city Banias
May 7, 2011
Syrian troops backed by tanks swept early Saturday into Banias, a hub of anti-regime protests, as residents formed human chains in a bid to halt the military operation, rights activists told AFP. Electricity and communications were cut as the tanks entered along three axes heading towards the southern sector of the city on the Mediterranean coast, the bastion of the protesters. Protesters were resisting by forming human chains, the activists said, reached by telephone from Nicosia. Tanks also encircled the nearby town of Bayda while an army boat patrolled offshore, they added. The military sweep into Banias comes two days after a convoy of 40 military vehicles pulled out of the southern town of Daraa, which the military had locked down since April 25. Human rights groups say that more than 600 people have been killed and 8,000 jailed or gone missing in the crackdown on protesters since demonstrations against President Bashar al-Assad erupted in mid-March. -AFP/NOW Lebanon

Germany to deport 200 lebanese charged with crimes
Ya Libnan/May 7, 2011/Germany sent Lebanese the authorities a list of 200 Lebanese nationals residing in Germany whom it intends to deport after having charged them with various criminal offenses, including some theft and rape cases, AFP reported on Friday. German Foreign Ministry spokesperson Stefan Bredohl told AFP that “the German government has a great interest in returning Lebanese nationals charged with crimes to their country.” Berlin has “given Lebanon’s representative a list of more than 200 people whose cases are considered dangerous and this list is currently being studied in Beirut,” he said. Now Lebanon

U.S. Warns of More Steps Against Syria, Welcomes EU Sanctions
Naharnet/The United States warned Friday it would take "additional steps" against Syria if it continues a brutal crackdown on protesters, a week after imposing tough sanctions on the Arab nation. "The United States believes that Syria's deplorable actions toward its people warrant a strong international response," the White House said in one of its strongest statements yet since the outbreak of unrest there. It warned that unless President Bashar Assad's government halted its repression of peaceful pro-democracy protests, "the United States and its international partners will take additional steps to make clear our strong opposition to the Syrian government's treatment of its people." It also welcomed the European Union's decision to impose sanctions on Syrian officials "responsible for human rights abuses." On April 29, the United States ordered the freezing and restricting of Syrian financial transactions, notably targeting Maher Assad, the powerful brother of the president, who commands Syria's feared Fourth Armored Division. Also named in an executive order from President Barack Obama were Ali Mamluk, director of Syria's Intelligence Directorate, and Atif Najib, the former head of intelligence in Daraa province, the epicenter of political violence. But the Obama administration stopped short of targeting the Syrian president himself, and has so far not withdrawn the U.S. ambassador to Damascus, Robert Ford, who only arrived in January in a bid to improve relations. The latest White House statement came after rights groups said Syrian security forces shot dead at least 26 protesters Friday during a huge "Day of Defiance" against the regime. "We strongly condemn and deplore the Syrian government's use of violence and mass arrests in response to ongoing demonstrations," the statement said.
"We again salute the courage of Syrian protestors for insisting on their right to express themselves and we regret the loss of life on all sides." It blamed Damascus for following "the lead of its Iranian ally in resorting to brute force and flagrant violations of human rights in suppressing peaceful protests." "The United States and the international community will adjust their relations with Syria according to the concrete actions undertaken by the Syrian government," it added. Late Friday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she was "deeply troubled" that the Syrian government continues to use force and intimidation against the Syrian people. "The United States condemns in the strongest terms the Syrian government's actions over the past five weeks and calls on it to immediately cease the killing, arrest, and harassment of protestors, activists, and journalists," Clinton said in a statement. "I am particularly troubled by ongoing reports of deaths of citizens at the hands of the Syrian government, including accounts today that at least 30 people were killed when Syrian security forces again opened fire on peaceful protestors throughout the country."(AFP) Beirut, 07 May 11, 08:34

EU Slaps Sanctions on 13 Syrian Officials, Spares Assad for Now
Naharnet/The European Union on Friday agreed punitive sanctions against 13 Syrian officials involved in the regime's violent crackdown on protests, but momentarily held off sanctioning President Bashar al-Assad. Diplomats told Agence France Presse that ambassadors from the 27-nation bloc would take a new look on Monday at whether to add Assad's name on a list of Syrians to be hit by an assets freeze and travel ban. At Friday's talks, ambassadors agreed to "work without delay on additional restrictive measures against people responsible for violent repression against civilians, and in particular to look fully at including the highest level of the Syrian leadership on the list." Sanctions against the 13 other regime officials listed by the ambassadors need to be endorsed by governments and are expected to come into force by Tuesday through publication in the EU Official Journal, the diplomats said.
European nations were split over taking punitive measures against officials blamed for the bloody repression of recent weeks, and particularly over whether to target Assad.
Britain, France and Germany argued in favor of a swift and clear message while smaller states -- notably Cyprus, Portugal and Greece -- were reticent over targeting Assad. Estonia for its part is concerned for seven of its nationals kidnapped in Syria's neighbor Lebanon. Among EU sanctions already agreed in principle are an embargo on the sale of weapons and equipment that might be used for internal repression as well as a review of the bloc's cooperation with Syria. France in particular had urged Assad's name remain on a 14-member list of Syrians targeted by restrictive measures, but several smaller EU nations were reticent, said diplomats who requested anonymity. "The French strongly favor inclusion, Britain and Germany support that but not at the expense of holding up the rest" of the sanctions, said a diplomat. The talks were held as activists said Syria's security forces shot dead at least 20 people when thousands rallied on a "Day of Defiance" against Assad's regime. Human rights groups say more than 600 people have been killed and 8,000 have been jailed or gone missing since the protests began in mid-March. But an influential Brussels-based think-tank, the International Crisis Group, warned this week that there was little scope for the international community to influence Syria.
"Outside actors possess little leverage, particularly at a time when the regime feels its survival is at stake. It has survived past periods of international isolation and likely feels it can weather the storm again," the ICG wrote. "The sanctions targeting individual officials involved in acts of repression that have been announced are unlikely to have any effect," it added.
"Broader sanctions run the dual risk of serving the regime by bolstering the claim that it is facing a foreign conspiracy and of harming ordinary citizens."(AFP) Beirut, 06 May 11, 20:24

Higher Islamic Legal Council Questions Governmental Vacuum: We Should Respect Miqati's Privileges
Naharnet/The Higher Islamic Legal Council questioned on Saturday the ongoing governmental vacuum in Lebanon, attributing it to the accumulation of "contradictory demands and conditions that violate national consensus and the constitution." It called in a statement, after a meeting headed by Mufti Sheikh Mohammed Rashid Qabbani, for "committing to national principles that the Lebanese asserted in the Taif Accord." It also urged respecting national Islamic principles that have been issued by Dar al-Fatwa aimed at asserting the role of the state in performing its duties through the legal political, judicial, and security institutions. The council hoped that constitutional values would once again be respected in forming governments "on the basis of respecting Prime Minister-designate Najib Miqati's privileges." Addressing Thursday's expected Islamic-Christian summit, it hoped that it would pave the way for restoring the state's "absolute authority." Beirut, 07 May 11, 17:26

Ban: Disarmament of Armed Groups Can Best Be Achieved through Political Process
Naharnet/U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon remains convinced that the disarmament of armed groups in Lebanon, in particular Hizbullah, can best be achieved through a political process, a U.N. spokesman said. "He calls on Lebanese leaders to reconvene the national dialogue under the auspices of President Michel Suleiman," the spokesman Farhan Haq said.
The U.N. chief also emphasized that the proliferation of weapons outside the State's control and the presence of heavily armed militias were a threat to the country's peace and prosperity.
In a report to the United Nations Security Council on UNSCR 1559, Ban also said that increased tension in Lebanon was "fueled among other things by speculation and public pronouncements concerning the proceeding of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon," according to Haq. Ban warned that increasingly entrenched positions for and against the tribunal were polarizing the country, Haq added. The tribunal's prosecutor, Daniel Bellemare, on Friday filed an amended indictment based on further evidence in the probe into the 2005 assassination of Lebanon's then prime minister Rafik Hariri, his office said. The indictment, which is being kept confidential, has to be examined by Belgian pre-trial judge Daniel Fransen, who has the responsibility of confirming it before arrest warrants or summonses are issued. Hizbullah argues that it needs its powerful arsenal of weapons to defend the country against Israel.
The armed group has let it be known repeatedly that disarmament is not on the table for discussion. Israel, which fought a month-long campaign against Hizbullah in 2006, says the party has accumulated 40,000 rockets including some that were capable of striking Israeli urban centers. Palestinian factions based in refugee camps in Lebanon, which the Lebanese army does not enter, are also armed.(AFP) Beirut, 06 May 11, 22:32

Saniora from U.S. Calls for Equipping Army, Dropping Excuse that Arms May Fall in Hizbullah's Hands
Naharnet/Former Prime Minister Fouad Saniora demanded on Friday that the United States maintain its support to the Lebanese army by continuing on providing it with proper equipment.
He made his statements before a number of American officials at the end of his trip to the U.S. He also demanded that the excuse that the weapons may fall in the hands of Hizbullah should be dropped "because the party does not need the army's weapons, but the army needs these arms in order to make its presence felt on the ground."Commenting on the developments in the Arab world, the head of the Mustaqbal bloc said: "The revolutions are a product of the failure to implement reforms." "The Arab spring was launched in Lebanon but it did not blossom and therefore, it's important that it be maintained and that the United States commit to the calls it issues," Saniora stressed. "Lebanon has nothing to do with the developments in Syria. We did not, don't want to, and cannot interfere in its affairs," he added. "It's true that we support reform, but due to out special relationship with Syria, we only wish Syria and its people what they wish for themselves," he continued. Beirut, 07 May 11, 17:55

Hunger Strike at Roumieh as Justice and Interior Ministry Delegation Listened to Inmates' Demands
Naharnet/The Interior Ministry announced on Saturday that a delegation from the interior and justice ministries visited Roumieh prison in order to listen to the demands of inmates who had gone on hunger strike on Friday. It said in a statement: "These demands included issuing a general pardon, speeding up trials, tackling prison overcrowding, improving the quality of food, and increasing the number of doctors at the jail." The ministers of interior and justice were informed of the demands and they will be referred to the parliament, government, ministries, and concerned sides, it concluded.Some 122 inmates in Roumieh prison began a hunger strike Friday night in protest against the failure to improve the conditions in the jail, reported Voice of Lebanon radio on Saturday. Father Marwan Ghanem said that inmates noted for their good behavior are carrying out the strike. VDL added that the prisoners are demanding meeting caretaker Interior Minister Ziad Baroud and caretaker Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar in order to present their demands.
A judicial-security committee is scheduled to visit Roumieh prison on Saturday in order to tackle their demands based on the two ministers' request. Beirut, 07 May 11, 16:00

Hizbullah and Syria Support Formation of Government 'from Pre-Arab Revolution Era'
Naharnet/Lebanon may be faced with a number of challenges in the government formation process given the unrest in Syria, reported the Kuwaiti al-Rai newspaper.
Widely informed sources said that Hizbullah and Syrian want the formation of a government that belongs to the pre-Arab revolts era, which is being faced with opposition in some sides in Lebanon.This explains the ongoing delay in the Cabinet formation, they stressed. Furthermore, the unrest in Syria is easing the pressure on the Lebanese sides regarding the formation process. They added however that Hizbullah would be the main beneficiary from the formation of the government, which is why it is approaching this issue with caution
The party is adopting a more pragmatic approach on the internal scene, which refutes claims that it is heading towards forming a one-sided Cabinet, the sources continued.
"It knows that assuming complete control in Lebanon would give Israel an excuse to launch a destructive war against the party and Lebanon," they stressed.
Hizbullah is already beginning to feel that burden of the rampant chaos in the country, they said in reference to the construction violations on public property in the South and Beirut's southern suburbs. In addition, the party's cautious approach is also linked to the international community's scrutiny of Lebanon should any violations against the Special Tribunal for Lebanon be made. Beirut, 07 May 11, 14:37

U.S. threatens new action unless Syria stops killings
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis, Reuters
http://xfinity.comcast.net/articles/news-general/20110319/NEWS-US-SYRIA/
AMMAN — The United States, reacting to the killing of 27 protesters by Syrian security forces on Friday, threatened to take new steps against the Syrian government unless it stopped killing and harassing its people.
Rights campaigners said the dead were among thousands of protesters who demonstrated after Friday prayers in cities across the country, from Banias on the Mediterranean coast to Qamishly in the Kurdish east, demanding an end to President Bashar al-Assad's rule.
The European Union agreed to impose sanctions in response to Assad's violent crackdown on protesters, which rights campaigners say has killed more than 580 people.
"The United States believes that Syria's deplorable actions toward its people warrant a strong international response," White House press secretary Jay Carney said in a statement.
"Absent significant change in the Syrian government's current approach, including an end to the government's killing of protesters ... the United States and its international partners will take additional steps to make clear our strong opposition to the Syrian government's treatment of its people."
The United States imposed sanctions of its own last week against some figures in the Syrian government.
Friday's bloodiest confrontation was in the city of Homs where 15 protesters were killed, activist Ammar Qurabi said.
State television said an army officer and four police were killed in Homs by a "criminal gang," though another activist, Wissam Tarif, said witnesses told him nine soldiers defected in Homs to the protesters and may have clashed with other troops.
Four protesters were killed in Deir al-Zor, said a local tribal leader from the region which produces most of Syria's 380,000 barrels per day of oil. They were the first deaths reported there in seven weeks of nationwide unrest.
International criticism has mounted against Assad, who has gone on the offensive to maintain his family's four-decade grip on power in the country of 20 million and crush demonstrators demanding freedom.
European Union governments agreed on Friday to impose asset freezes and travel restrictions on up to 14 Syrian officials responsible for the violent repression.
Officials blame "armed terrorist groups" for the violence, give a lower death toll and say half the fatalities have been soldiers and police. They say demonstrators are few in number and do not represent the majority of Syrians.
Assad himself was not targeted by the sanctions, which follow last week's EU agreement in principle to impose an arms embargo on Syria. The measures will be approved on Monday if no member state objects.
Assad's security forces and troops, which stormed the city of Deraa last week, have prevented demonstrators establishing a platform such as Egypt's Tahrir Square by blocking access to the capital Damascus. But every week protesters have used Friday prayers to launch fresh marches.
"The people want the overthrow of the regime," shouted 2,000 demonstrators in the Damascus suburb of Saqba.
Footage released on the Internet and aired on Al Jazeera television showed protesters in several towns and cities echoing the same calls for freedom and change of leadership.
"7,000 ARRESTED"
In Hama, where Assad's father brutally suppressed an armed Islamist uprising in 1982, a rights activist said security forces shot dead six demonstrators.
The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said a protester was killed in Latakia and three were wounded.
Despite the harsh crackdown, protesters appear determined to maintain demands for an end to years of repression, arrests without trial and corruption by the ruling elite.
"The Syrian people will not back down after the country's budding youths were killed in their hundreds," said Montaha al-Atrash of the Syrian human rights organization Sawasiah.
Opposition leader Riad Seif, who helped initiate a peaceful movement seeking political freedoms and democracy 10 years ago, was arrested at one of Friday's protests, his daughter said.
On Thursday authorities arrested prominent Damascene preacher Mouaz al-Khatib, a major figure in the uprising, rights campaigners said on Friday.
A Western diplomat said 7,000 people had been arrested since the demonstrations broke out on March 18 in Deraa.
DERAA "SIEGE"
Last week, Assad ordered the army into Deraa, cradle of the uprising that began with demands for greater freedom and an end to corruption and is now pressing for his removal.
An ultra-loyalist division led by his brother Maher shelled and machinegunned Deraa's old quarter on Saturday, residents said. The United States condemned the assault as "barbaric."
Syrian authorities said on Thursday the army had begun to leave Deraa, but residents described a city still under siege.
Human Rights Watch cited figures from Syrian rights groups saying 350 people had been killed there.
(Additional reporting by Yara Bayoumy and Mariam Karouny in Beirut, Suleiman al-Khalidi in Amman, Adrian Croft in London, Luke Baker, David Brunnstrom and Ilona Wissenbach in Brussels; Writing by Dominic Evans; editing by Tim Pearce)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2011. Check for restrictions at: http://about.reuters.com/fulllegal.asp

Access denied
Matt Nash, May 7, 2011
Since Lebanon was a French mandate there have been disputes over land ownership in the area now called Ouzai, the once-sandy coast immediately south of Beirut. Today it’s a densely-packed neighborhood of low-rise buildings – for the most part illegally developed years ago by internally-displaced Lebanese – and yet another dispute is raging because of a flurry of more illegal construction.
In the early 1970s, Ouzai was known for its swanky beach resorts that catered to elite local members and VIP foreigners – not too far a cry from the expensive beach clubs that gobble up other parts of the coast now in contravention of laws and decrees guaranteeing public access to the sea. The land in Ouzai is both public and private, but parts of it became a haven for squatters as early as the 1950s.
In 1958, according to a 2002 research paper by Mona Fawaz and Isabelle Peilen, the Lebanese army raided Ouzai in Lebanon’s “first (recorded) slum clearance operation.” It was unsuccessful. With the onset of the civil war, wave after wave of mostly Shia internally-displaced people headed to Ouzai and started building.
Today they’re at it again. After the war, there seems to have been an amnesty granted by the state to not only those in Ouzai but also to residents in many other areas where the internally displaced built illegally after fleeing their towns and villages. Based on interviews in Tyre (NOW Lebanon has not been able to reach officials responsible for granting construction permits), it seems the amnesty deal came with a caveat: People can stay but they can’t add on to existing structures.
There was once a plan to more or less level Ouzai (and most of the rest of Beirut’s southern suburbs, infamously known as dahiyeh) after building alternate housing for the people who live there. In the early 2000s, the state built a new highway over Ouzai (much to residents’ chagrin), but the housing project, Elissar,seems to now be nothing but a memory.
Last week my colleague Nadine Elali and I went to Ouzai to try interviewing residents about why they’re building now. All throughout the rather large neighborhood people are putting additional floors on their houses and businesses. Politicians at the time were clamoring about dangers of construction in Ouzai near the airport, so we went to check it out.
I was personally interested in whether people were actually building in such a way that they’d be at risk of getting hit by airplanes (I’ve heard there’s a very tall hotel in a different Beirut suburb that’s actually smack in the middle of a possible flight path, limiting, most likely against the law, the comings and goings of planes from the airport).
After one interview, we found that planes did not fly all that close over the area we were in. A resident told us we needed to head down the road a bit, so we set off to do so. As we headed back to our car, a man on a motor bike stopped us. He told us he was a member of Hezbollah and wanted to know why we were gathering statistics in the neighborhood.
We told him we were journalists working on an article, trying to get people’s opinions in order to tell their stories, not gathering statistics. Convinced we were lying, he took our IDs and my notebook and asked us, very politely but in a way that was clear we could not refuse, to wait a little while.
As a second man drove off on a motorbike with our belongings, we sat and waited. We were questioned thrice by two different men about who we were, why we were there and where we lived. They asked Nadine for her parents’ names (including her mother’s maiden name) and ultimately wrote all of our personal details down on a notepad.
We explained that we are quite familiar with Hezbollah’s press office and knew we needed permission to travel and ask questions in other parts of the southern suburbs, but didn’t realize we needed permission to travel in Ouzai – both of us were actually under the impression it was more of an Amal area. We offered to call the Hezbollah press people we knew, but they refused.
Twice during our questioning police officers drove past, looked over at the crowd of around eight people and kept on driving (a rarity for the curious Lebanese who often stop to see what’s going on, especially when a foreigner is involved).  After a bit more than an hour, our IDs were returned. I asked if I could have my notebook back. The man who questioned us longest took it from his back pocket, ripped the notes I’d taken that day out and handed it back. “We’re very sorry we kept you here so long,” he told us. “You can go now.”
“So, we can continue reporting now?” Nadine asked. “No, you can go home.”

Aoun: Some politicians are unconscious
May 7, 2011
“Some politicians are in a state of unconsciousness – they do not look [at matters] with a comprehensive perspective,” Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun said on Saturday.
“Today we have begun to sell our country without feeling it – we are selling our land and properties to foreigners,” he said while receiving visitors, according to the National News Agency (NNA). He also said that no treasury accounts have been properly settled since 1993 and that Lebanon has taken on more public debt that it can bear. -NOW Lebanon

Pakistan: A Terrorist State
Banaras Khan / AFP-
Osama bin Laden died the day after Walpurgisnacht, the night of black Sabbaths and bonfires. Not an inappropriate time for the Chief Witch to fall off his broomstick and perish in a fierce firefight. One of the most common status updates on Facebook after the news broke was “Ding, dong, the witch is dead,” and that spirit of Munchkin celebration was apparent in the faces of the crowds chanting “U-S-A!” on the night of May 1 outside the White House and at Ground Zero and elsewhere. Almost a decade after the horror of 9/11, the long manhunt had found its quarry, and Americans will be feeling less helpless now, and pleased at the message that his death sends: “Attack us and we will hunt you down, and you will not escape.”
Many of us didn’t believe in the image of bin Laden as a wandering Old Man of the Mountains, living on plants and insects in an inhospitable cave somewhere on the porous Pakistan-Afghanistan border. An extremely big man, 6 feet 4 inches tall in a country where the average male height is about 5 feet 8, wandering around unnoticed for 10 years while half the satellites above the earth were looking for him? It didn’t make sense. Bin Laden was born filthy rich and died in a rich man’s house, which he had painstakingly built to the highest specifications. The U.S. administration confesses it was “shocked” by the elaborate nature of the compound.
We had heard—I certainly had, from more than one Pakistani journalist—that Mullah Mohammed Omar was (is) being protected in a safe house run by the powerful and feared Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate somewhere in the vicinity of the city of Quetta in Baluchistan, and it seemed likely that bin Laden, too, would acquire a home of his own.
In the aftermath of the raid on Abbottabad, all the big questions need to be answered by Pakistan. The old flimflam (“Who, us? We knew nothing!”) just isn’t going to wash, must not be allowed to wash by countries such as the United States that have persisted in treating Pakistan as an ally even though they have long known about the Pakistani double game—its support, for example, for the Haqqani network that has killed hundreds of Americans in Afghanistan.
This time the facts speak too loudly to be hushed up. Osama bin Laden, the world’s most wanted man, was found living at the end of a dirt road 800 yards from the Abbottabad military academy, Pakistan’s equivalent of West Point or Sandhurst, in a military cantonment where soldiers are on every street corner, just about 80 miles from the Pakistani capital of Islamabad. This extremely large house had neither a telephone nor an Internet connection. And in spite of this we are supposed to believe that Pakistan didn’t know he was there and that Pakistani intelligence and/or military and/or civilian authorities did nothing to facilitate his presence in Abbottabad while he ran Al Qaeda, with couriers coming and going, for five years?
Pakistan’s neighbor India, badly wounded by the Nov. 26, 2008, terrorist attacks on Mumbai, is already demanding answers. As far as the anti-Indian jihadist groups are concerned—Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Muhammad—Pakistan’s support for such groups, its willingness to provide them with safe havens, its encouragement of such groups as a means of waging a proxy war in Kashmir and, of course, in Mumbai, is established beyond all argument. In recent years these groups have been reaching out to the so-called Pakistani Taliban to form new networks of violence, and it is worth noting that the first threats of retaliation for bin Laden’s death were made by the Pakistani Taliban, not by any Qaeda spokesman.
India, as always Pakistan’s unhealthy obsession, is the reason for the double game. Pakistan is alarmed by the rising Indian influence in Afghanistan, and fears that an Afghanistan cleansed of the Taliban would be an Indian client state, thus sandwiching Pakistan between two hostile countries. The paranoia of Pakistan about India’s supposed dark machinations should never be underestimated.
For a long time now, America has been tolerating the Pakistani double game in the knowledge that it needs Pakistani support in its Afghan enterprise, and in the hope that Pakistan’s leaders will understand that they are miscalculating badly, that the jihadists want their jobs. Pakistan, with its nuclear weapons, is a far greater prize than poor Afghanistan, and the generals and spymasters who are playing Al Qaeda’s game today may, if the worst were to happen, become the extremists’ victims tomorrow.
There is not very much evidence that the Pakistani power elite is likely to come to its senses any time soon. Osama bin Laden’s compound provides further proof of Pakistan’s dangerous folly.
As the world braces for the terrorists’ response to the death of their leader, it should also demand that Pakistan give satisfactory answers to the very tough questions it must now be asked. If it does not provide those answers, perhaps the time has come to declare it a terrorist state and expel it from the comity of nations.
Rushdie is the author of 11 novels. He is currently working on a memoir.
Rushdie's Terror Reading List
Taliban by Ahmed Rashid. In the aftermath of 9/11, Rashid's book was one of the few authoritative works available for Americans to turn to. Long before that calamity, he had been doing the hard work on the ground that has made him the foremost authority on the region.
Osama bin Laden by Michael Scheuer. Fine, skeptical reporting. I assume there will be a new final chapter soon.
The Wasted Vigil by Nadeem Aslam. Takes us inside the lived experience of Afghanistan in its nightmare years as no journalism can. Aslam is one of the finest of the fine crop of Pakistani novelists.
Curfewed Night by Basharat Peer. Beautifully done memoir-reportage about Kashmir, whose people are trapped between jihadist fanaticism and the brutality of the Indian security apparatus.

Syria's Assad Bashes Heads, Hoping His Regime's Strategic Importance Buys It a Pass
By Rania Abouzeid / Beirut Friday, May 06, 2011 /The TIMES
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2070070,00.html
Protesters march through the streets in Homs, Syria May 6, 2011 in a still image taken from video. The banner reads, "We are not seeking destruction and division, we are seeking freedom and peace."
Location, in real estate and sometimes in politics, is everything. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad lives in a very different geopolitical neighborhood from his erstwhile, but now-ousted counterparts in Tunisia and Egypt, as well as the teetering leaders of Libya and Yemen. It's a tumultuous patch of the Middle East, populated by an uneasy mix of religious and ethnic groups, frequently in turmoil. Fear of the chaos and instability his ouster might unleash is Assad's greatest advantage as he races to brutally crush a seven-week uprising before the rapidly rising body count forces world leaders to act more forcefully against him.
Despite widely shared misgivings about the consequences of regime-change in Syria, the international community is slowly hardening its stance toward the ruling Ba'athist regime. The U.S. has targeted new sanctions at three senior figures, including the president's brother Maher al-Assad, who heads the army's 4th Division and Republican Guard units tasked with subduing protests in the southern city of Dara'a, where the current uprising began in mid-March. The European Union has agreed to impose sanctions on 13 top Syrian officials, but remains divided as to whether or not Bashar al-Assad himself should be censured.
The ambivalence over targeting Assad himself could be a product of the "good cop" image the young president has cultivated during his 11 years in power. According to that narrative, Assad is good, humble and close to his people, but he is surrounded by bad apples, especially senior intelligence operatives and holdovers from the regime he inherited from his father, Hafez al-Assad. In this version of reality, Bashar has long wanted to implement reforms, but he has been hamstrung by the consequences of such developments as 9/11, the Iraq war and the 2006 Lebanon war. Even as he has sent tanks into towns and presided over the killing of close to 600 protesters and the arrest of as many as 8,000 others, the "good Bashar" story insists that world leaders could still cajole him into curbing the bloodbath. It's enough to make Libya's Moammar Gaddafi choke on his chai.
Even as the Syrian regime's measures against pro-democracy protesters are rapidly approaching the brutality unleashed by Gaddafi's forces when the protest movement broke out in Libya, nobody's expecting NATO to scramble its jets to protect Syrians, says Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center. Western leaders still harbor a hope that "traditional tools of diplomacy" will sway Assad, says Hamid. "I think there's a realization that where Gaddafi was delusional and not open to compromise, I think there still is a hope that pressure can work on Assad."
Still, some — including Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, an Assad friend and ally — appear to be losing patience. The Turkish leader this week issued a scathing critique of Assad's actions, warning him against "another Hama," a reference to the Syrian city bombed to rubble in 1982 by Hafez al-Assad after an Islamist insurrection there. At least 10,000 people were killed in that uprising, although the exact figure is not known. Ammar Qurabi, head of the National Organization for Human Rights in Syria, says the Turkish about-face came because "the Turks realized that the presence of this regime is a factor creating instability in the region, the opposite of what the West thinks."
Assad's immediate problem, however, is that brute force is not having the desired effect. On Friday, tens of thousands of protesters once again demonstrated across Syria following afternoon prayers, despite the regime having repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to open fire on them. As many as 21 people were killed in the city of Homs in central Syria, activists said, and more than a dozen injured in what has become a regular cycle of protests, deaths and further protests.
Both sides appear to have boxed themselves in.
Although Assad has talked of reforms and abolished the 48-year emergency law, his regime has continued to kill and arrest protesters. Even if he amends the Constitution to allow multi-party politics and makes other concessions, many Syrians will want him to pay for the blood he has spilt in recent weeks. Protesters are rapidly approaching the point where they believe that ceasing their actions offers them no greater hope of physical survival than does fighting on. "The more the regime has shot into crowds, the larger the protests have become. It's a lose-lose situation," Hamid says. "More repression, even if it works, will remove the regime's last shreds of legitimacy. Less repression may embolden the opposition and lead to regime change."
Which brings us back to geography: Syria is a linchpin state, one that may be too strategically important to fail because of the ethnic and sectarian strife the regime's collapse could spark in the tinderbox states next door. To Syria's east is strife-torn Iraq; to its west, weak and volatile Lebanon. In the north, Turkey's restive Kurdish areas abut Syria's long-marginalized and politically disenfranchised Kurds. In the southwest lurk Jordan's Islamists, while Israel, which has occupied Syria's Golan Heights since the 1967 war, remains a hostile state. Damascus is also at the center of the so-called anti-American, anti-Israeli "resistance axis" grouping Iran, the militant groups Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, with Syria.
The potential consequences of Syria's political unraveling are unclear, but potentially very dangerous. Decades of Ba'athist repression have precluded the emergence of an organized democratic opposition. Assad's opponents are a disparate group of aging intellectuals, exiled Islamists, and widely distrusted former regime figures like Abdel-Halim Khaddam, a long-serving vice president who also held several posts under Bashar's father.
(Can Assad reform the government without causing his own downfall?)
Still, rights activists say fear of the unknown and geopolitical calculations are poor reasons to keep a tyrant in power. "If anything, Syria is a source of instability in Iraq, in Palestine, and Lebanon," Qurabi says. "A weakening of the regime in Syria or its change, or its reform so that it represents Syrian society, I think will result in positive change in the region." Sometimes, it requires a dramatic change to improve a difficult neighborhood.

The FPM Demagoguery.
May 7, 2011
By Ghassan Karam /Ya Libnan
No one doubts that Gibran Basil is not another political figure who lost his parliamentary seat in the last elections in Lebanon. He is much more than that, he is the son in law of Gen Michel Aoun, and the head of the FRM political party in Lebanon and thus is entitled to a cabinet ministry in every Lebanese government. Most assume that the present standoff where the Prime Minister designate, Mr. Mikati, has not been able to form a cabinet, is primarily due to the obstructionists policies followed by Michel Aoun in which he demands that Mr. Basil his protégé be given the Interior Ministry. (It is ironic that such nepotism is being advocated by the party who claims the mantel of reform, go figure).
As bad as the above might sound, the recent positions of the FPM, as articulated through its favourite politician, is nothing short of pure demagoguery. It does not take a genius to figure out that when a government, an institution or even a household that is already running a deficit will be committing suicide by decreasing the level of income when the expenditures are essentially contractual agreements that cannot be reduced. But that is exactly what the FPOM has been suggesting openly and I might add with the implicit support of its allies who have stood by as this destructive charade is allowed to continue.
Lebanon consumes every year about 500 liters of gasoline per capita. These 2 Billion liters of gasoline have been subject to a tax LL953 per 20 liters. The revenue derived by the Lebanese authorities from this tax amounted to over $650 million during 2010. The government used these funds, in combination with its other revenues, to finance the national debt and provide the meager level of services that its equally meager resources allow it to provide. Note that the Lebanese government is not in a position to adopt an austerity budget since things cannot possibly become more austere than they currently are. So what does the think tank of the FPM come up with to ease the pain and the burden ofon the Lebanese citizen? Why not cut the revenue of the government from the oil tax by half? Yes you heard it right. All sorts of political pressures were used to force the tax to be cut from LL9530 to LL4530. That effectively took away from the already strapped Lebanese government over $300 million each year. But that was not enough, the FPM is at it again. Mr. Basil, with the blessings of the FPM and all its allies wants to eliminate this government revenue totally. They wish to eliminate the remaining $300-320 million of annual revenue. So what is wrong in taking the side of the poor consumer you ask? Well everything in this case. Any individual with an IQ above 70 would tell you that when the government is in such a tight fiscal position then no tax relief is acceptable unless it is paid for. This simply means that a decrease of the sum of revenue from one source needs to be compensated for by an equal increase from another source otherwise bankruptcy and financial collapse will become inevitable. The $650 million lost to the Lebanese treasury, if not compensated for would increase the level of national indebtedness. Ironically the debt will increase by more than the tax cut since the new debt carries a rate of interest . In addition had the $650 million tax cut not been exercised, it would have decreased the level of debt and the interest rate required to finance it. In a world best characterized by peak oil, a region in political turmoil, a global economy struggling to find its footing and above all the threat of climate change hanging in the balance it is wrong, immoral and irresponsible to encourage the consumption of fossil fuels. The current proposal for tax relief suffers of two major shortcomings: (1) It is ecologically irresponsible and (2) it is economically misinformed. A far better strategy would be to reinstate the first LL 5000 tax per 20 liters that has already been implemented by offering an equal tax cut targeted to benefit the poor and the needier. This policy must not be allowed to pass. Note: The suggestion by Mr. Basil to transition to natural gas is not without merit except for the fact, and he would be the first to admit it, that such a plan is for the long run not the short or even the intermediate since it places major needs on the infrastructure).
 

Amid Syria's turmoil, Israel sees Assad as the lesser evil
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0506/Amid-Syria-s-turmoil-Israel-sees-Assad-as-the-lesser-evil/(page)/2
By Joshua Mitnick/Christian Monitor/06 May/11
Assad allows Iranian weapons to cross Syria’s border with Lebanon to Hezbollah, which fought a month-long war with Israel in 2006 and has since rearmed. Syria also provides a headquarters of Hamas, which fought a three-week war with Israel two years ago. In previous years, Israeli military exercises in the Golan Heights, captured from Syria in the 1967 war, have escalated fear about an outbreak of war. And in 2007, Israel bombed a site in Syria believed to be the location of a nuclear reaction in construction.
But Syria’s authoritarian regime has honored the cease-fire lines separating the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. As a result, those lines have been Israel’s most quiet border over the past three decades.
Indeed, on a recent visit to the Golan Heights during the demonstrations, the border region was calm. An Israeli military spokesman declined to comment whether the turmoil in Syria had prompted the army to change its deployment – a move that could spike tension between the countries
Why Israeli officials are quiet on Syrian turmoil
As in the case of Egypt’s wave of protests against former President Hosni Mubarak, Israeli government officials have refused to discuss the turmoil in Syria.
While Western countries have condemned the regime’s repression of protests, Israel’s government has maintained a studied silence for fear that Damascus may seize on the comments to recast the unrest as Israeli meddling in domestic affairs. Mr. Kara, the legislator, is one of the few officials to speak out on the issue.
Officials have also expressed worry if Assad’s regime, in a fit of desperation to cling to power, would foment a limited border conflict with Israel to distract attention from the domestic unrest.
"We don’t want to be seen as part of the story. There are elements on both sides that could use any sort of Israeli involvement to accuse the other side," said an Israeli official, explaining the silence from the government. "We are close to the ground, and we could easily get pulled into this. We have to be more sensitive than other countries [in commenting on the violence] … We are not exactly surprised by what Assad is doing. We knew what kind of a regime this was."
Why peace proponents are becoming more cautious
Kara, a Druze Arab, says he has been trying to help Syrian opposition leaders in Europe open a channel of negotiations on reform with representatives of the Assad regime in order to dampen the turmoil. A gradual process of reform under the current government is preferable to continuing unrest which could empower Islamists from the country’s Sunni majority, who he says are radicals.
But the protests have prompted former proponents of peace talks to reconsider. For years, some Israelis have argued that an accord to return the Golan Heights to Syria would break Iran’s influence and would be less complicated than a deal with the Palestinians.
But, with Assad’s legitimacy in question, the thinking goes, Israel should be more cautious about taking security risks. Indeed, if Israel had already negotiated peace with Assad, the turmoil would have put that deal at risk.
At the moment, Israel's 'Syrian option' will be shelved," wrote Itamar Rabinovitch, an Israeli expert on Syria and a former negotiator, in the daily Yediot Ahronot. "There is no sense in making a deal like that with a regime whose stability is strongly in question."
Tel Aviv
As Syria's Assad regime buckles under mass protests for reform and democracy, neighboring Israel is watching with unease.
True, the downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would ostensibly remove a key player in the Iranian-led alliance threatening the Jewish state on several fronts. But Syria under Mr. Assad has been a stable neighbor and maintained a regional balance that officials and analysts fear could crumble – providing an opening for hard-line Islamist groups.
"I prefer the political extremism of Assad over religious extremism," says Ayoub Kara, a parliament member from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party. "We don’t want religious extremism on the border."Syria 101: 4 attributes of Assad's authoritarian regime
Two worst-case scenarios envision a boost for groups considered Islamic radicals. In one, Iran could gain greater influence in post-Assad Syria. In the second, contradictory scenario, the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood could control a new government.
While most analysts agree that the fall of Assad’s regime would remove a reliable ally of Iran, the Islamic Republic might use that power vacuum to forge a closer bridge to Hezbollah or gain sway over a fledgling Syrian ruler. And even the weakening of Assad's rule could give Iran an opportunity to expand its influence in Syria, by propping up Assad.
Israel is also afraid that if Syria’s Sunni majority were to replace the Alawite minority now in charge, it would give the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood a dominant role in the country. Even if the Sunni leadership were secular, analysts in Israel said they are likely to take even more of a hard line against Israel because of historic ties to Sunni Muslims in the Palestinian territories.
"Assad is definitely an enemy who helps Hamas and Hezbollah. But the disintegration is frightening," says Alon Liel, a former managing director of the Israeli foreign ministry who has advocated in the past for Israel-Syrian peace talks. "There is no one opposition group that can take control of Syria. It’s quite a mess."
Syria's Assad: A stable neighbor
In the past three decades, Israel and Syria have fought three wars with each other and another by proxy in Lebanon. Since then, Israel has accused Syria of sponsoring low-level violence in third party countries that occasionally flares up into a limited conflict, like Israel’s war with Hezbollah in 2006 and with Hamas in 2008-09.
During the same period, three rounds of peace talks have failed.
Giora Eiland, a former national security adviser under former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, said Mr. Sharon once slammed an Israeli who suggested that regime change in Syria. "Sharon said, 'Are you crazy?' " he recalls. "The best for the time being, is having a Bashar Assad who is fighting for his legitimacy.' "
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To be sure, Syria provides support for Hezbollah on the Israel-Lebanon border, and for Hamas on Israel’s border with the Gaza Strip. Both groups have fired rockets into Israel