LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِMarch 30/2011

Biblical Event Of The Day
The Good News According to Mark 8/22-25: "He came to Bethsaida. They brought a blind man to him, and begged him to touch him. 8:23 He took hold of the blind man by the hand, and brought him out of the village. When he had spit on his eyes, and laid his hands on him, he asked him if he saw anything. 8:24 He looked up, and said, “I see men; for I see them like trees walking.” 8:25 Then again he laid his hands on his eyes. He looked intently, and was restored, and saw everyone clearly. 8:26 He sent him away to his house, saying, “Don’t enter into the village, nor tell anyone in the village.”

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
For Patriarch Rahi, "Lebanon’s glory" is necessary for peace and stability in the Middle East/By: Fady Noun/March 29/11
Bahrain is not Lebanon/By Tariq Alhomayed/March 29/11
Libya or Syria: Which war of choice should the US be fighting?/Pajamas Media/March 29/11
TRENDING: Pawlenty: Obama administration 'naive' on Syria/CNN/March 29/11
Who will be the Brothers’ keepers?/By: Hussein Ibish/March 29/11
What is at stake if Syria's regime falls/By:By Nicholas Blanford/March 29/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for March 29/11
Patriarch Al-Rahi Heads to the Vatican April 11 to Meet with the Pope, Celebrate Mass/Naharnet
Future News: Gang of Lebanese, Syrians behind kidnapping of Estonians/Now Lebanon
Lebanese Army Identifies Estonians' Abductors as Intelligence Bureau Member is Injured in Bekaa Raids/Naharnet
Mass protests support Syria's hard-line regime/AP
Syria's Never-Ending State of Emergency/Huffington Post
Observations and provocations/Los Angeles Times
Protesters in South Draw Fire From Syrian Forces/New York Times
Mideast revolutions could be good for Israel, says Peres/Haaretz
Egyptian American Held in Syria for Allegedly Taking Photos of Protests/VOA
Turkey urges reforms in Syria, dispatches intelligence chief/Hurriyet Daily News
Obama and aides: The US can't intervene everywhere/USA Today
Syrian TV: Boats with weapons seized coming from northern Lebanon/Monsters and Critics.com
Israel Deploys Shield against Iran-Backed Hamas, Hezbollah Attacks/The Israel Project (press release)
'Lebanese officials arrest man for conspiring with Israel'/J.Post
Sleiman asks Bahrain to protect Lebanese expats/Daily Star
Jumblatt: Cabinet, national dialogue needed to bridge gap/Daily Star
Speculation abounds amid rumors of imminent cabinet breakthrough/Daily Star
Patriarch's comments on Baroud draw Free Patriotic Movement ire/Daily Star
Turkey pushes Syria, gently, to reform its regime/The National
US not going to intervene militarily in Syria according to Hillary Clinton/New Box
Syria awaits end of decades-old state of emergency/AFP
UNIFIL denies reports of clashes with locals in south, says ties excellent/Daily Star
Lebanese Cabinet Deadlock Expands over Demands for Faisal Karami's Representation/Naharnet
Mario Aoun: I Didn't Say al-Rahi's Remark on Baroud was 'Irresponsible'/Naharnet
No Progress in Probe on Church Blast Amid Plan to Put Cameras at Zahle Entrances/Naharnet
Jumblat: Jumping to Conclusions over Developments in Arab States May Harm Interests of Lebanese Residing There/Naharnet
Syria Releases Two Lebanese Reuters Journalists/Naharnet
Lebanese Embassy in Abidjan Threatened, Advises Expatriates to Exercise Caution/Naharnet
Phalange Calls for Confronting Plan Threatening Lebanon's Security as Soon as Possible/Naharnet
Suspect Arrested on Charges of Collaborating with Israel/Naharnet
Nasrallah, Jumblat Discuss Cabinet Formation Efforts/Naharnet
Shia ex-MPs exposed to prosecution in Bahrain/Now Lebanon
Obama’s Libyan strategy: Recipe for a deeper, lengthier US military role/DEBKAfile

TRENDING: Pawlenty: Obama administration 'naive' on Syria
By: CNN Political Coverage Manager Steve Brusk
Washington (CNN) - Likely Republican presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty accused the Obama administration of "naivety" on Syria, as he called for the United States to recall its ambassador and toughen sanctions on the country. Pawlenty's comments came in a radio interview on the Hugh Hewitt Show Monday evening, shortly before President Obama addressed the nation on the military operation in Libya.
"Our interests in Syria are at least as strong, if not stronger, than in Libya", Pawlenty said when asked what the United States should do after violent crackdowns on demonstrators in Syria. “Here you have a country (that has) enabled and accommodated people to go into Iraq and kill American soldiers. They house Hamas and allow them to exist in Syria as they continue to be a terrorist organization in Israel and elsewhere. And the list goes on and on about the problems that the Syria, and specifically Bashir Assad, has caused the region and the world and also the United States of America." Pawlenty told Hewitt the U.S. needs a tougher stance on the Syria protests, first calling for President Obama "to speak strongly and clearly to the people of Syria that we hope and believe and support their drive towards freedom and getting rid of Bashir Assad.” The former Minnesota governor, who last week launched an exploratory committee for a White House run, said the administration needs to recall Ambassador Robert Ford from Damascus. President Obama named Ford as Ambassador in 2009, four years after the U.S. withdrew its envoy in protest at the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. “President Obama made the mistake of sending an ambassador to Syria, legitimizing that country and his regime in ways that I don't think are appropriate. Recall the ambassador,” Pawlenty said. In the interview, he also called for the United States to start invoking further sanctions on Damascus, “both economically and otherwise." Palwenty called any belief that Syria and Assad could be peace agents in the region "a complete crock." He said it "shows the naivety of the Obama administration. And to have the secretary of state on a Sunday morning talk show implying that he's a reformer; to have his administration essentially embracing in any manner or degree Bashir Assad and Syria as a peace agent - or an agent for reform and stability in the region - is either ignorant or frighteningly misguided."
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was asked on CBS' “Face the Nation” how the situation in Libya was worse than repression over the years in Syria, including by Assad's father. Clinton said, "There is a different leader in Syria now. Many of the members of Congress of both parties who have gone to Syria in recent months have said they believe he's a reformer. What's been happening there the last few weeks is deeply concerning."

Future News: Gang of Lebanese, Syrians behind kidnapping of Estonians
March 29, 2011 /Future News television reported on Tuesday that security forces identified a gang of three Lebanese and two Syrians led by Darweesh Khanjr is behind last week’s kidnapping of seven Estonians. An unnamed security source who spoke on condition of anonymity said the gang is now in a confined area. The source added that the gang may be involved in the Sunday bombing of a church in Zahle. Seven European citizens were kidnapped near the Bekaa city of Zahle on Wednesday after they had entered Lebanon from Syria on their bikes. A top security official told AFP earlier on Tuesday that the abductors of the Estonians have been identified and a raid is underway to arrest them. An explosive device detonated outside the door of Saida Church in the Zahle industrial city early Sunday morning. -NOW Lebanon

Army Identifies Estonians' Abductors as Intelligence Bureau Member is Injured in Bekaa Raids
Naharnet/Security officials have identified those behind the kidnapping of seven Estonians abducted a week ago at gunpoint in Lebanon and a raid is ongoing to arrest them, a top security official told AFP Tuesday. "We know who is behind the kidnapping, we have identified them and an operation is underway to arrest them," the security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said. He said the raid, which began overnight, was taking place in the towns of Jeb Jennine, Majdal Balhis, Majdal Anjar, and al-Sweiry on the Bekaa region. One member of intelligence bureau was wounded when security troops stormed the area, he said. He was transported to a hospital in Beirut where he is receiving treatment. The official said three people were arrested in recent days in connection with the kidnappings that took place last Wednesday, after the seven Estonians had crossed legally into Lebanon from Syria on bicycles. "Those arrested led us to the kidnappers," he said, adding that he believed the Estonians were still alive. The men were abducted in the industrial part of the city of Zahle, located some 50 kilometers (30 miles) east of the capital Beirut. The National News Agency reported on Tuesday that the army cordoned off the town of Majdal Anjar where it also conducted several raids. One citizen was arrested in the town of al-Sweiry on suspicion of being involved in the kidnapping, but he was later released.(naharnet-AFP)

No Progress in Probe on Church Blast Amid Plan to Put Cameras at Zahle Entrances
Naharnet/The blast at the Syriac Orthodox church in Zahle went off after a call was made to a mobile phone attached to the detonation fuse, the first time a bomb has been detonated via cell phone in Lebanon, An Nahar daily reported Tuesday. The newspaper said the investigation into the bombing on Sunday revealed that the culprits linked the detonation fuse of the 2 kilogram-TNT device to a phone that has a SIM card. Its remains were found near the church. Despite the discovery, no major progress has been made yet in the probe into the 4:15 am bombing that blew out a side door of the church and damaged benches inside as well as the altar. As Safir newspaper said that Internal Security Forces carried out patrols on major roads in the Central Bekaa the day before. It said more than 30 four-wheelers took part in the operation. While camera footage of the area surrounding the church did not reveal any leads, Zahle municipality chief Joseph Diab al-Maalouf said that the municipality was fully coordinating with security forces to establish a center to monitor the city's entrances through cameras. Beirut, 29 Mar 11, 11:32

Al-Rahi Heads to the Vatican April 11 to Meet with the Pope, Celebrate Mass
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi will travel to the Vatican on April 11 to meet with Pope Benedict XVI and celebrate mass there at St. Peter's Basilica, the deputy chief of the Episcopal committee on the media announced Tuesday. Father Elie Madi said during a press conference that the patriarch would visit the Vatican April 11-16 during which he would thank the pope for the letter he sent to al-Rahi the day he was elected. During his stay at the Vatican, the new patriarch will celebrate mass at St. Peter's Basilica during which he would express gratitude to the pope for his confidence, said Madi. Several bishops will accompany al-Rahi to attend his meeting with the pope on April 14, he added. Beirut, 29 Mar 11, 14:49

Nasrallah, Jumblat Discuss Cabinet Formation Efforts
Naharnet/Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Progressive Socialist Party chief Walid Jumblat discussed the latest developments and cabinet formation efforts, a Hizbullah statement said Monday. The statement said that Caretaker Minister Ghazi Aridi and Wafiq Safa attended the meeting at an undisclosed location. It did not say when the meeting took place.
The men discussed the latest developments in Lebanon and the Arab world and bilateral ties, said Hizbullah. The Hizbullah secretary general and the head of the National Struggle Front bloc also held talks on the efforts to form the new government, the statement added. Beirut, 29 Mar 11, 10:25

Jumblat Urges Hariri to Return to Dialogue Table in 1st Phone Conversation in 2 Months
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat has reportedly held a telephone conversation with Caretaker Premier Saad Hariri, the first contact between the two men since the Druze leader named Najib Miqati as premier-designate more than two months ago. Pan-Arab daily al-Hayat quoted informed sources as saying on Tuesday that Jumblat called Hariri and stressed to him the need to return to the national dialogue table. The PSP chief also told the caretaker prime minister during their phone conversation several days ago that contacts between different parties should continue despite differences between them, the sources said. However, Hariri stressed to Jumblat that he wasn't the reason behind the standstill in the national dialogue, adding he did not seek to "topple consensus," in reference to Hizbullah and its allies. The sources told al-Hayat that the importance of the phone conversation lies in the fact that it took place. When asked by Voice of Lebanon radio station on the talks, al-Mustaqbal movement official Mustafa Alloush said: "Contacts between Hariri and Jumblat haven't been fully severed." Hariri met with Qatar's emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani in Doha on Monday following a visit to Riyadh. The caretaker premier's press office said the two men discussed bilateral ties and the latest developments in Lebanon. A source accompanying Hariri told Agence France Presse that the visit was not linked to the developments in the country. Beirut, 29 Mar 11, 08:49

Cabinet Deadlock Expands over Demands for Faisal Karami's Representation
Naharnet/Premier-designate Najib Miqati is expected to visit President Michel Suleiman on Tuesday and propose to him a de facto cabinet lineup, former Prime Minister Omar Karami's sources told As Safir daily. They said the draft lineup does not include the name of Faisal Omar Karami. According to the sources, Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun is not aware of it and Hizbullah has already informed Miqati that it rejects a cabinet that doesn't include Karami. Asked what stance Omar Karami would take if the prime minister-designate goes ahead with his de facto cabinet, the sources said the former premier "would remain in his opposition and as usual he would monitor" Miqati's moves. However, As Safir said that Miqati froze his decision to propose a 30-member cabinet lineup to Suleiman on Tuesday over an advice by Speaker Nabih Berri. An Nahar daily said, however, that the premier-designate held talks with Suleiman on Monday away from the media spotlight. The report comes amid signs that the government formation efforts have gone back to the initial stages, casting doubts about an early formation. An Nahar said that Aoun continues to hold onto his demand for the interior ministry portfolio and has refused to name his proposed candidates for the cabinet seats before Miqati accepts Aoun's tough demands for the lion's share of Christian participation. However, a breakthrough was made later Tuesday when Miqati held talks with the advisors of the speaker and the Hizbullah leader, Ali Hassan Khalil and Hussein Khalil, in addition to Caretaker Ministers Jebran Bassil and Ghazi Aridi. Beirut, 29 Mar 11, 10:44

Mario Aoun: I Didn't Say al-Rahi's Remark on Baroud was 'Irresponsible'
Naharnet/Former minister Mario Aoun stressed on Tuesday that he described Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi's remark on Caretaker Interior Minister Ziad Baroud as "unprecedented" but not "irresponsible.""I didn't say it was irresponsible," Aoun told Voice of Lebanon radio station. "It is unprecedented … We haven't gotten used to such remarks from a high religious authority."The Free Patriotic Movement official made his comment a day after he said that al-Rahi's remark hinted that the patriarch wanted Baroud "to be the country's next president."
Al-Rahi expressed support to Baroud on Sunday, saying he is a "patriotic minister who brings hope to every Lebanese."FPM chief Michel Aoun and President Michel Suleiman have been at loggerheads over the interior ministry portfolio. Both want the ministry to be part of their share in the new cabinet. Suleiman insists on keeping the portfolio with Baroud. Asked about efforts to form the government, Mario Aoun told VDL: "A de facto cabinet will be stillborn because it doesn't respect the Christian majority." Beirut, 29 Mar 11, 12:30

Syria Releases Two Lebanese Reuters Journalists
Naharnet/Two Reuters journalists who went missing at the weekend while covering the recent unrest in Syria have been released by authorities and have returned to Beirut, the news agency said Monday. Reuters editor-in-chief Stephen Adler was quoted as saying that television producer Ayat Basma and cameraman Ezzat Baltaji were back in their home base in Beirut and were doing well. "Reuters is concerned that its journalists were detained and held incommunicado for so long. We are delighted by their release and look forward to welcoming Ayat and Ezzat back," Adler was quoted as saying. "We would like to thank everyone who helped us resolve the issue." Reuters said a Syrian official informed the agency that the two journalists were detained because they did not have a permit to work in Syria and had filmed in an area where that was not permitted. Both journalists disappeared Saturday evening after sending a message to a colleague that they were headed back to Beirut. The Lebanese journalists were reporting on unprecedented protests in Syria in the last two weeks which have threatened the authoritarian regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Reuters said that another of its journalists had been expelled from Syria last week after authorities accused him of filing "unprofessional and false" reports on the country's unrest. Senior correspondent Khaled Yacoub Oweis, a Jordanian national, worked in Damascus from February 2006 until Friday, when he was asked to leave by the information ministry.(AFP) Beirut, 28 Mar 11, 22:53

Lebanese in Ivory Coast under Threat as Lebanon's Ambassador Assures Plane Tickets and Aid Being Provided
Naharnet/The Lebanese Ambassador to the Ivory Coast Ali Ajami stressed on Tuesday that the situation in the African country is "getting more complicated as the political and security situations are unstable." He added to Voice of Lebanon radio on Tuesday that the Lebanese expatriates are being robbed, saying that several of them have already left the country.
He revealed that some 5,000 expatriates had left the country during March. They managed to flee the Ivory Coast through the assistance of a businessman in the African country who provided them with plane tickets, Ajami stated. On Monday, the Lebanese Embassy in Abidjan revealed that it had received a threat by an individual claiming to be speaking on behalf of the "invisible commandos" warning foreign expatriates, especially the Lebanese one, against meddling in the Ivory Coast's political affairs. The embassy said in a statement that the letter was received by email, adding that the commandos announced that they were behind the kidnapping and murder of Lebanese citizen Ali Khalil Fawwaz. They held the Lebanese ambassador to the Ivory Coast responsibility for the development. The statement added that it had informed the Lebanese and Ivory Coast Foreign Ministries of the threat, urging the need to start an investigation in the affair. Lebanese expatriates have been advised to exercise caution even if the letter's authenticity is in question, the embassy stressed. The "invisible commandos" are loyal to Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara and opposed to incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo. Beirut, 29 Mar 11, 16:29

Phalange Calls for Confronting Plan Threatening Lebanon's Security as Soon as Possible
Naharnet/The Phalange party condemned on Monday the "criminal attack" that targeted a Zahle church on Sunday, noting that it is most likely linked to other attacks that had taken place against churches in the Jbeil and Metn areas and the South. It said in a statement after the weekly meeting for its politburo: "These attacks threaten Lebanon's security and such a plan should be confronted as soon as possible as it may threaten the country's national unity." Furthermore, it condemned last week's kidnapping of seven Estonian tourists, questioning the internal security forces' failure to issue a statement on the matter. Turning to the government formation process, the statement criticized the delay, especially "since the March 14 camp's boycott of Cabinet should speed up its formation, unless personal interests are taking precedence over all other matters." Addressing regional developments, the politburo questioned some statements on these issues, especially the Bahrain protests, by some Lebanese political figures "that have only set fuel to the fire" and therefore placed the Lebanese, "who have long been the symbols of openness", in a confrontation with countries that have harbored them. Beirut, 28 Mar 11, 19:56

Patriarch's comments on Baroud draw Free Patriotic Movement ire
By The Daily Star /Tuesday, March 29, 2011
BEIRUT: Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai’s subtle expression of support for the re-appointment of caretaker Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud in the next government was answered promptly Friday by Free Patriotic Movement officials. FPM official and Jezzine MP Ziyad Aswad described Rai’s remarks as “an emotional position,” saying that though Baroud was a patriotic man, he had failed in his role as interior minister. FPM official and former Social Affairs Minister Mario Aoun also expressed annoyance with the praise Rai expressed for Baroud Sunday.
“He is a patriotic man who represents hope to all Lebanese and is a figure that cannot be sidelined,” Rai said of Baroud Sunday as deliberations to form the new cabinet by Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati intensified. Among the major hurdles reportedly hindering the cabinet’s formation is FPM leader MP Michel Aoun’s insistence that the Interior Ministry fall under his parliamentary bloc’s share of ministerial portfolios. Meanwhile, President Michel Sleiman insists on retaining the portfolio, which he assigned to Baroud in the previous government.
Also, in a message of support to Baroud, Kataeb Party MP Elie Marouni said he supported the re-appointment of Baroud as interior minister in the new cabinet. “Minister Baroud is an independent figure and we agree with the patriarch regarding Baroud,” he said. The patriarch warned Monday against undermining Lebanon’s multiculturalism and underscored the importance of “social and spiritual cooperation to rebuild Lebanon’s make up.” Rai said Lebanon’s diverse make up and multiculturalism remain the main reasons behind the country’s existence.FPM leader Michel Aoun had tense ties with Rai’s predecessor, Cardinal Nasrallah Butros Sfeir, who Aoun had accused of showing bias toward Christian parties in the March 14 coalition. Aoun had hoped the election of Rai would lay the foundation for new cooperation with Bkirki. – The Daily Star

Maronites and Muslims
New patriarch's motto is 'communion and love,' indicating his commitment to interreligious dialogue in Lebanon.
Share by DOREEN ABI RAAD (CNS) 03/28/2011
http://www.ncregister.com/daily-news/maronites-and-the-muslims/
INSTALLATION. New Maronite Catholic Patriarch Bechara Rai looks on during his installation ceremony in Bkerke, Lebanon, March 25.
BEIRUT (CNS) — The new patriarch of the Maronite Catholic Church pledged to work with Muslims, noting that Lebanon is a country of partnership between Muslims and Christians.
Patriarch Bechara Rai said that, for the sake of communion and love, he would work “to establish a sincere and complete dialogue” with Muslims “and build together a future in common life and cooperation.” Thousands of people, accepting the open invitation from Bkerke, the patriarchal seat of the Maronite Church, flocked to witness the patriarch’s enthronement.
They came from all over Lebanon, many arriving in convoys of buses decorated with pictures of the new patriarch, papal flags waving from windows. The patriarchate said people filled all 16,000 seats outside the domed church on the sprawling grounds. Of the approximately 5.5 million Maronites worldwide, about 1 million live in Lebanon.
Crowds cheered and ululated as the new patriarch made his way on the red carpet followed by his predecessor, 90-year-old Cardinal Nasrallah Sfeir, who resigned in February because of his age. Among those seated inside the church for the enthronement Mass were Lebanese President Michel Sleiman, a Maronite Catholic; caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Prime Minister-designate Nagib Mikati, Sunni Muslims; and Speaker of the House Nabih Berri, a Shiite Muslim; rival politicians, including a representative from Hezbollah; diplomats, dignitaries, patriarchs and other religious officials; nuns and priests.
In his homily, Patriarch Rai called attention to the significance of the date, March 25, the feast of the Annunciation, pointing out that it was instituted in 2010 as a national holiday in Lebanon because it is holy to Christians and Muslims. The patriarch also noted the special meaning of the Annunciation for him personally, as he was baptized on the feast at the Church of Our Lady of the Annunciation in the village of Chouya, Lebanon, 71 years ago. His name, Bechara, means “Annunciation” in Arabic. The new patriarch referred often to “communion and love,” which he chose as the motto for his patriarchal ministry. He lamented how Lebanon’s diversity of religions had become “tainted by political and partisan colors that have stripped them of their sanctity, the purity of their faith and the spirituality of their religion.” As is customary for the patriarchs of the Eastern Churches in union with Rome, the new Maronite leader — elected March 15 — formally requested communion with Pope Benedict XVI, which was granted. The Vatican published the exchange of letters between Patriarch Rai and Pope Benedict March 25. Patriarch Rai takes leadership of the Maronite Catholic Church during a period of political divisions in Lebanon, particularly among Christians.
The new patriarch warned that Lebanon “is not for one religion, party or group alone, and it should not be monopolized by any, because the monopolization of Lebanon by a single group would represent humiliation to all and a loss to the country whose greatness lies in the diversity of its spiritual families and their richness.” He said he was following events surrounding the unrest sweeping the Arab region with anxiety and was praying for stability and peace. Patriarch Rai said his predecessor “struggled with insistence to free both the national decision-making and the land of Lebanon from all forms of tutelage and occupation, worked for reconciliation in Mount Lebanon and realized needed Church reforms.”
“All of these constitute an extension of the Church’s springtime started by the Second Vatican Council,” he said. Patriarch Rai called upon the intercession of St. Rafqa — who, like the patriarch, was born in Himlaya, Lebanon — and her mission of suffering. He said he relies on the merits of the blood of the martyrs of Lebanon, the intercession of its saints, and the prayers of the sick, the handicapped and the elderly “who join their suffering to the redemptive suffering of Christ.” The patriarch also said the youth and the nation’s 1.3 million students are “our future and the hope of our Church and homeland.” He added, “Our concern is also the family — the essential cell of our society and the natural and first school of our values — and the ‘domestic church’ which educates in faith and prayer.”

Who will be the Brothers’ keepers?
Hussein Ibish, March 29, 2011
The passage in late March of constitutional amendments allowing for early parliamentary and presidential elections in Egypt has revived concerns about the impact of likely major electoral successes for Islamist parties in emerging Arab democracies. Some Egyptian reformers had warned that at least a year was needed to allow new political parties to begin to function. As things stand, there are only two well-organized parties in Egypt: the discredited former ruling National Democratic Party and the Muslim Brotherhood. The NDP probably still has some constituency and could remain a presence in the new parliament. But the deeper concern is that the only opposition group well positioned at this early stage to launch an effective nationwide campaign is the Brotherhood. The demonstrations that ousted President Hosni Mubarak were not driven by Islamist rhetoric or ideology; they were secular, ecumenical and patriotic. However, the Muslim Brotherhood has the national infrastructure to campaign village by village, and it has a history of providing basic social services like health and education that the government has often failed to secure.
Because they have never held power anywhere outside of Gaza, Arab Sunni Islamists can claim the mantle of good governance, invoking the silly but commonplace idea that the devout are, by definition, honest. And while Islamist ideology didn’t carry much sway with the urban demonstrators in Tahrir Square, it might have much broader appeal in villages generally not part of the anti-Mubarak uprising. So, there is every indication that the Muslim Brotherhood is poised to perform extremely well in early Egyptian elections. But is that a reason for alarm? After all, the religious right will have to be a part of any genuinely democratic order, as long as it is unarmed and plays by constitutional rules. Like all other parties, it has every right to stand for elections and seek a popular mandate for governance.
Some American observers such as Robert Satloff of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy advocate “discriminate democracy,” which he has defined as a “democracy for all but the Islamists.” Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen has bluntly written that the prospect of Islamists coming to power might threaten Israel and therefore Egyptian democracy is to be feared and rejected.
These are ridiculous arguments. There is a robust religious right in Israel, heavily represented in the current Israeli cabinet, that has propagated perfectly outrageous policies regarding the Palestinians, peace and Israeli minority groups. Is that a reason to reject democracy in Israel? There is also a robust and pernicious religious right in the United States, represented by demagogues such as Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee, but their presence is hardly an argument for scrapping the Constitution.
The concern about Islamists and democracy is wrongly framed as the threat of “one man, one vote, one time,” as if Islamists generally intended to hold only one election, seize power and then shut down the process altogether. I think this is a serious misreading of the actual strategy of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. It appears that most Arabs, including Islamists, have understood that governmental legitimacy requires elections, and that can’t be based on only one election. On the contrary, the Brotherhood seems to have a quiet confidence that it can consistently do well in elections over time, and that this is sufficient to pursue its agenda, at least at this stage.
The real challenge is very different: it is that the other side of the democratic coin – the need to restrain the power of democratically-elected majorities – is far less well understood or accepted. The Muslim Brotherhood, for example, is currently embroiled in a ridiculous debate about whether a woman or a Christian might one day serve as Egyptian president. Other than ruling parties and families, Arabs generally seem to have embraced the idea that elections are essential for legitimacy. But the need to protect the rights of individuals, minorities, women and others from potentially tyrannous majorities has not penetrated sufficiently.
Should democracies featuring regular, free and fair elections take hold in key Arab states such as Egypt, the challenge will probably not be a shutting down of the electoral process. It will be maintaining and enforcing restraint on the powers of potentially tyrannous majorities over individuals, women and minorities. Democracy promotion work in the Arab world, both internal and external, should move quickly away from an already established consensus in favor of elections, and begin to focus on the equally vital need to put clear limitations on the powers of democratically-elected majorities.
Under such circumstances, with strong constitutional limitations on the power of democratically-elected governments in place, backed up by neutral militaries committed to defending the Constitution rather than the regime, it should be possible to reconcile robust Islamist parties with real, functional democracy in the Arab world.
Hussein Ibish is a senior research fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine and blogs at www.Ibishblog.com.

What is at stake if Syria's regime falls
By Nicholas Blanford, Correspondent / March 28, 2011
Beirut, Lebanon
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is not alone in keeping a wary eye on the two weeks of protests in his country that have left dozens dead and show little sign of abating.
Repression or reform? Deadly protests may force Syria's Assad to choose.
Syrian troops enter key port city of Latakia after 12 killed in protests
Syria's Assad willing to lift emergency law
.If Syria collapses into Libya-style chaos or Mr. Assad is ousted like his counterparts in Tunisia and Egypt, it will have major strategic ramifications on Syria’s close regional allies – Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas – and possibly alter the balance of power in the Middle East. Even opponent Israel is watching the unrest with some trepidation, as Syria has been a hostile but predictable neighbor.
Despite having frail economy, rampant corruption, few natural resources, a growing population, and rising unemployment, Syria has a proven ability to punch above its weight, exerting influence in key hot spots in the region – Lebanon, Iraq, the Palestinian territories – and has become a gateway for Iran to extend its reach into the Middle East.
Think you know the Middle East? Take our geography quiz.
“A new regime in Syria definitely will have an effect [on the region], but it depends on the nature of the new regime,” says Ahmad Moussalli, a professor of politics at the American University of Beirut. “Syria holds the cards of Iran, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and Hamas, and whatever regime rules in Syria, it will not want to throw away those cards for nothing.”
Why Syria is the linchpin
Syria is the geostrategic linchpin connecting Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon, granting Tehran a toehold on Israel’s northern border. Syria and Iran provide the bulk of Hezbollah’s massive arsenal of guided rockets, antitank missiles and mortar shells that allegedly enter Lebanon via the rugged mountainous border with Syria.
Last year, a top Israeli intelligence officer said that the huge quantity of arms sent to Hezbollah via Syria could no longer be described as smuggling but was an “organized and official transfer” of weapons." If the Syrian border is shut to Hezbollah, it would complicate the group’s ability to fill its arsenals, especially if there is another war with Israel.
Furthermore, when weighing the possibility of a confrontation with Hezbollah, Israel has to analyze whether the conflict could escalate and draw in Syria. The Syrian Army may be no match for the Israeli military, but the regime has invested heavily in recent years in long-range rockets, which could reach targets throughout Israel. It has also invested in antiaircraft and antitank weaponry to dent Israel’s superiority in the air and on the ground.
The country has been ruled by the Baath Party since 1963 and by the Assad dynasty since 1970. Although the Syrian state is nominally secular, the Assad clan and the core of the regime are drawn from the minority Alawite sect (an offshoot of Shiite Islam), which accounts for about 15 percent of the population in the majority Sunni-populated country.
What Syria's neighbors want
If Syria falls into turmoil, analysts say that its neighbors – chiefly Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, but also the US and possibly even Israel – will try to influence an outcome that suits their respective interests:
Iran will be looking for a state hostile to Israel and the West and willing to maintain the existing strategic relationship.
Saudi Arabia will want Syria to abandon its ties to Iran, limit Tehran’s influence in Lebanon, and return fully to the Arab fold.
The US will aspire for a democratic secular Syria open to the West and peace with Israel
Israel’s primary concern is to prevent the country falling into the hands of Islamist Sunnis, such as the Muslim Brotherhood.
It has long been a paradox of the Arab-Israeli conflict that Syria is one of the most ardent opponents of the Jewish state, yet its joint frontier, which includes the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, has barely seen a shot fired in anger since the October 1973 war. Successive Israeli governments rail against Syria’s alliance with Iran and its support for Hezbollah and Hamas, yet they also tacitly acknowledge that the tough secular regime in Damascus is preferable to potential alternatives.
“To Israel, the great advantage of Assad’s regime is its lack of daring and its tendency to avoid risk and direct conflict,” wrote Israeli columnist Aluf Benn in the daily Haaretz newspaper last week.
Syria, Iran, Hezbollah vying for influence in Lebanon
Any changes in Syria will certainly have an impact in Lebanon, which has traditionally fallen within the influence of its larger neighbor to the east. During its three-decade alliance with Syria, Iran generally respected the prerogative of Damascus in Lebanese affairs. That changed from 2005, however, when Syria withdrew its forces from Lebanon following the assassination of former premier Rafik Hariri.
Iran swiftly filled the vacuum left by the Syrians and helped its ally Hezbollah emerge as the dominant political player in Lebanon. Now, after several years of regional and international isolation, Syria has begun to reassert its influence in Lebanon. This has generated some friction with Iran and Hezbollah, neither of which are willing to return to playing a subordinate role to Damascus.
If a collapse of the Assad regime leads to the emergence of a stable Sunni-dominated order, “it would represent a clear and severe blow to Hezbollah, Iran and to some degree Hamas,” says a Lebanese political analyst who requested anonymity because of the tensions in Lebanon generated by the Syria crisis. The analyst added that a Sunni regime in Syria would attempt to cut off Iran’s access to Lebanon and reduce Hezbollah’s influence.
For now, most Lebanese are fearful of the crisis in Syria spilling across the border. There have been several pro-Assad demonstrations in Beirut, which led to minor clashes on Sunday. Last week, seven Estonian tourists on a cycling holiday in Syria and Lebanon were kidnapped in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. Their bicycles and bags were left on the side of the road, and the Estonians have not been seen since.

Shia ex-MPs exposed to prosecution in Bahrain
March 29, 2011 /Bahrain's parliament on Tuesday accepted the resignations of 11 Shia MPs who quit over the use of deadly force against pro-democracy demonstrators, in a vote exposing them to possible legal action. The house in a unanimous vote "accepted the resignations of 11 MPs of Al-Wefaq,” which with 18 seats makes up the largest bloc in the 40-member parliament of the Shia-majority state, official news agency BNA said. It said that parliament decided to postpone a vote on the other seven members of Al-Wefaq, which heads the opposition in the Gulf country ruled by a Sunni royal family. Tuesday's vote cleared the way for the possible prosecution of the outspoken former MPs now stripped of parliamentary immunity, following calls for the opposition to face charges in court. On March 16, Bahraini security forces drove the mostly Shia protesters out of central Manama's Pearl Square under a state of emergency, ending a month-long campaign on the streets against the regime.-AFP/NOW Lebanon

Obama’s Libyan strategy: Recipe for a deeper, lengthier US military role
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis March 29, 2011, In his Libya address to Americans early Tuesday, March 29, President Barack Obama failed to resolve the inner contradictions in his strategy for US involvement in the Western campaign against Muammar Qaddafi:
“The United States would work with its allies to hasten the day when Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi leaves power, but would not use force to topple him,” he said, indicating that US allies France and Britain and Libyan rebels would be in the forefront of the mission for ousting the Libyan ruler.
Shortly before the Obama speech, French and British leaders, President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister David Cameron, declared that Muammar Qaddafi “must go now.”
This was exactly the language the US president used to topple Hosni Mubarak as Egyptian President but has avoided in reference to the Libyan ruler or Syrian President Bashar Assad, although the latter has ordered soldiers to shoot to kill hundreds of civilian demonstrators – and continues to do so.
Obama did not refer explicitly to US military support for Libyan rebels – except to promise “to help the opposition” while at the same time insisting “the US would play more of a supporting role.”
Yet at the Pentagon US Navy Vice Adm. William Gortney, staff director to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Monday that the rebels are not well organized. (This is a tactful understatement given their chaotic makeup) “Clearly they’re achieving a benefit from the actions that we’re taking,” and “They are not a very robust organization. So any gain that they make is tenuous…”
He was not just referring to intelligence and logistical support but rather
to low-flying US Air Force AC-130 and A-10 attack aircraft which were used to pin down Qaddafi’s loyalist forces and clear the way for the rebels to sweep back to the eastern cities they lost, Adjabiya, Brega and Ras Lanuf where fighting is still raging.
And Army Gen. Carter Ham, commander of the Libya mission told the New York Times: “The regime possesses the capability to roll them (the rebels) back very quickly. Coalition air power is the major reason that has not happened.”
He added that only very small numbers of Qaddafi’s troops have defected to the opposition.
debkafile’s military sources: The only way to “help the opposition” in its campaign against Qaddafi is to transform a pack of squabbling dissidents into military-capable units with proper training and arms, a feat requiring a substantial US military presence on Libyan soil and time – as Washington has discovered painfully in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The transition of the US command to NATO welcomed by President Obama was likewise a play on words given the pre-eminent role America plays in the Northern Alliance in terms of command, capabilities and budget.
Qaddafi is fully capable of retaliating against the coalition campaign with terrorist strikes in other parts of the Middle East and in Europe. Therefore, the only way to stop the Libyan war may turn out to be its ruler’s demise, a goal clearly aimed at by British and French bombardments since Saturday night, March 26 but excluded from UN Security Council Resolution of March 19.
Having failed to achieve that goal, British and French leaders have called more than 40 foreign ministers and regional group representatives together in London for Tuesday, March 29, to find ways of intensifying the pressure on him to step down. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will attend as well as UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.
Military sources in London report that the UK lacks the air crews for strikes against Qaddafi’s forces and has therefore withdrawn instructors from RAF training courses and assigned them to operational duties.
Back here to debkafile’s earlier report of March 29.
Despite protestations to the contrary, debkafile’s military and intelligence sources find the American role in the operation against Muammar Qaddafi heading only one way: Instead of a transition “in a few days” to NATO i.e. Europe - which US President Barack Obama will no doubt reiterate when he addresses the nation Tuesday, March 29 - the United States is sliding deeper day by day into a third war in a Muslim country.
In the last three days, US air strikes have beaten Qaddafi’s forces into tactical retreat from all its conquests in the rebel-held eastern province of Cyrenaica. This operation rescued the rebels from the certain defeat they faced in the middle of last week, allowed them to retake the strategic oil towns of Ajdabiya, Brega and Ras Lanuf and opened the way for them to drive forward to Qaddafi’s home town of Sirte, the key to Tripoli.
In the view of debkafile’s military experts, the Libyan opposition’s gains are no more than a victory on paper, not the battlefield. Qaddafi and his commanders executed tactical retreats from those towns - not because they were beaten in battle but to avoid being ground down by superior US sea-based and air power. That power opened the door for the opposition rebels to recover the towns they lost in the last three weeks and pose as victors.
For Washington, the implication is clear: Continuing rebel momentum against Qaddafi’s forces depends on United States commitment to two steps:
1. Keeping up the aerial and sea-based bombardment of government forces. Nothing, otherwise, will stop Qaddafi’s troops turning around and heading back east to recapture the towns they left. Containing Qaddafi’s army cannot be left to the limited capabilities of France and Britain or any other members of NATO which has assumed token command of the Libya operation.
2. Organizing the rebels into regular combat units and furnishing them with arms, funds and military instructors. The other alternative would be for the Americans to invest increasing numbers of ground forces into Libya to defend the eastern provinces against Qaddafi reasserting control.
Saturday, March 26, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates admitted, “Libya did not pose a threat to the United States before the US began its military campaign.” Asked whether ongoing developments indicated that US military involvement might continue at least until the end of the year, Gates replied: “I don’t think anybody knows the answer to that.”
In other words, no one in Washington, including no doubt the president, can say with any certainty exactly where the American campaign in Libya is heading or its duration.
In just a few days, the gap has widened exponentially between America’s first commitment to supporting a European-Arab operation mandated by the UN for enforcing a no-fly zone over Libya and protecting civilians plus an imminent transition of the US lead role and President Obama’s pledge not to involve ground troops – all the way over to an expanding commitment to supporting an armed revolt against the Qaddafi regime.
Aware of the Obama administration’s quandary, Qaddafi offered Washington a way out. By pulling his troops out of the eastern towns, he gave the Americans a chance to chalk up a rebel victory – or at least a standoff - and leave it at that. At this stage, he would accept the loss of Cyrenaica so long as the Americans give up their assaults.
However, should the Obama administration decide to persist in its active military support for the rebellion, the Libyan ruler may consider three counter-steps:
One, to carry out the threat he made prior to the coalition campaign against his regime to strike back at American, British and French targets in the Middle East and Europe;
Two, to activate Libyan undercover terrorist networks in Europe against US targets as well as local ones;
Three, to retreat along with his family to a secret sanctuary among loyal Saharan tribes and from there to fight for his survival against both the Americans and Al Qaeda which he accuses of penetrating the opposition and turning his people against him.

For Patriarch Rahi, "Lebanon’s glory" is necessary for peace and stability in the Middle East
by Fady Noun/AsiaNews.It
The head of the Maronite Church is concerned about developments in the Arab world. He said he would focus on young people for the future of the “Church and Lebanon”. Top state officials from various factions attend the investiture ceremony. Following in the footsteps of John Paul II and Patriarch Sfeir, he speaks out in favour of a pluralistic nation.
Beirut (AsiaNews) – Israel’s occupation, Syria’s control, Hizbollah’s hegemonic temptations, Christian-Muslim equality, from the Taif accord, in an evolving context, to Lebanon’s formula for Christian-Muslim dialogue are all hints to the overall political situation of the Maronite Church in Lebanon and, to some extent, Christians in the Arab world. They were mentioned in the address Patriarch Béchara Boutros Rahi delivered last Friday during his investiture ceremony as Patriarch Sfeir’s successor.
The event took place at the headquarters of the Maronite Patriarchate in Bkerké, on the day of the Annunciation, according to the wishes of the new patriarch, whose name ‘Béchara’ means ‘Annunciation’ in Arabic.
All of Lebanon’s top state officials attended the ceremony, starting with President Michel Suleiman, a Christian. For the occasion, all divisions were put aside. Political adversaries like Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces, General Michel Aoun, Hizbollah parliamentary leader Mohammed Raad, Prime Minister designate Nagib Mikati and his rival, outgoing Prime Minister Saad Hariri, were all seated in the front row.
Many grassroots delegations were also present, confirming, as if that was necessary, that the new patriarch is held in high esteem by the faithful and that his election, achieved with an almost unanimous vote in just three days, represents the will of the faithful.
Following in a 1,600-year-old process of succession, coming especially after his 91-year-old predecessor retired because of age, the new Patriarch, hinting at Hizbollah’s use of weapons, said that “no one can monopolise it (the fatherland) because if one faction claims it for itself it does so at the expense of others.”
Speaking on the feast day of the Annunciation, which has been “a national holiday for Christians and Muslims” since 2010, Patriarch Rahi did not hesitate to say that the Patriarchal motto “Lebanon received its glory”, which alludes to a passage from the Prophet Isaiah, cannot be fulfilled if the Patriarch’s actions do not fit into a context in which all of Lebanon’s “spiritual families” are open to one another.
Under the circumstances, the glory bestowed upon the Patriarch falls on Lebanon, its message and model, as Pope John Paul II defined them once and for all. Indeed, in the 1990s, the great pontiff came up with a popular aphorism. “Lebanon is more than a country. It is a message of freedom and an example of pluralism for East and West,” the Pope said.
For the new Patriarch, following such an inspired definition, the path is the same as that followed by Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir over the years, namely that Lebanon does not belong to the Maronites, but the Maronites and the Maronite Church belong to Lebanon.
During his address, the new head of the Maronite Church pledged that the fate of 1.3 million young people in school and university would be his absolute priority. They are the “future of the Church and Lebanon”, he said, and a good proportion of them are studying in Catholic institutions.
The patriarch stressed his commitment to the millions of Maronites living abroad. The World Maronite Foundation would like to see them regain their Lebanese nationality, which they might have lost out of necessity or carelessness.
Finally, he said that he was following developments across the Arab world “with great concern”, whilst praying for “stability and peace” in the region.

Bahrain is not Lebanon
29/03/2011
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
The worst thing that the Shiite opposition in Bahrain could do now is to accept external mediation to resolve their problems with the government, because this would have serious consequences for the opposition itself, even if Kuwait were to mediate.
By merely accepting Kuwaiti mediation, this is a genuine sectarian move on the part of the opposition. The Shiite opposition criticized the decision to send the Peninsula Shield force to Bahrain, although the force was deployed to maintain security and not to deal with the demonstrators. The opposition considered this to be a form of 'Saudi occupation', and defamed Riyadh in the Western media, even though the Saudi troops were accompanied by the rest of the Peninsula Shield forces, which entered Bahrain in accordance with a Gulf convention that has stood for nearly 30 years. How can the opposition say all this, and then accept Kuwaiti mediation between them and the government? Is this because Kuwait hesitated to send troops to Bahrain, or is it in response to sectarian advice from within Kuwait?
Of course, I have nothing but the utmost love and respect for Kuwait. I previously commended the Emir of Kuwait's initiative to resolve the dispute between Oman and the UAE, but now I also criticize the proposal for Kuwaiti mediation in Bahrain. What Kuwait accomplished between Muscat and Abu Dhabi was both necessary and praiseworthy, because it purified the relationship between two Gulf States. However, mediation in Bahrain would mean interfering between a particular component of society, and the government, and this model has no parallel other than in Lebanon, where everyone acts as mediator to solve the country's problems with the Iranian-sponsored Hezbollah. Is this what the Bahraini opposition wants? This is incomprehensible, even if the Bahraini government agreed to it, or if the initiative was sponsored by the UAE, Qatar or Saudi Arabia.
Bahrain must not become another Lebanon. Rather we must enhance the sense of citizenship in our countries, and our region, instead of entrenching the sense of sectarianism which is manipulated by external forces. The Gulf States have a problem with the Iranian regime, not its citizens, and not the Shiites. Citizenship should be all-encompassing, and it is wrong to classify between components, not just in Bahrain but in all Gulf States. The fear is that the Bahraini opposition wants to manipulate Kuwaiti mediation in order to embarrass the Gulf States, but the truth is that the opposition will only embarrass themselves, because they are repeating a universally rejected model, that of Hezbollah.
Consequently, my message to the Gulf States is that the Shiites are citizens like everyone else. My message to the Bahraini opposition is that they have committed an age old mistake by declaring a sectarian identity, and advocating the use of external mediation to solve domestic problems. This would be the last thing any rational observer would wish for, even if it came from a trusted mediator such as Kuwait. Thus it is up to the Bahraini opposition to choose their own form: Do they want to be like the Houthis in Yemen, when Qatar served as a mediator? Do they want to be like Hezbollah, which would be the worst possible outcome? Or do they want to be like the Kuwaiti opposition, incorporating both Sunnis and Shiites, who did not accept foreign interference between them and their government, not even in the darkest of times, and did not raise the ceiling of their demands, or exploit the Arab scene and its emergency circumstances, as the Shiite opposition in Bahrain are doing today. Thus the Bahraini opposition must choose the most appropriate model, because everything has its price!