LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِMarch 23/2011

Biblical Event Of The Day
Matthew 23/1-12: " Then Jesus spoke to the multitudes and to his disciples, 23:2 saying, “The scribes and the Pharisees sat on Moses’ seat. 23:3 All things therefore whatever they tell you to observe, observe and do, but don’t do their works; for they say, and don’t do. 23:4 For they bind heavy burdens that are grievous to be borne, and lay them on men’s shoulders; but they themselves will not lift a finger to help them. 23:5 But all their works they do to be seen by men. They make their phylacteries broad, enlarge the fringes of their garments, 23:6 and love the place of honor at feasts, the best seats in the synagogues, 23:7 the salutations in the marketplaces, and to be called ‘Rabbi, Rabbi’ by men. 23:8 But don’t you be called ‘Rabbi,’ for one is your teacher, the Christ, and all of you are brothers. 23:9 Call no man on the earth your father, for one is your Father, he who is in heaven. 23:10 Neither be called masters, for one is your master, the Christ. 23:11 But he who is greatest among you will be your servant. 23:12 Whoever exalts himself will be humbled, and whoever humbles himself will be exalted.'


Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Is there a Chavez terror network on America's doorstep?/Washington Post/March 22/11
Iran Continues to Change the Balance of Power in Middle East/Family Security Matters
Canada  Condemns Ongoing Violence in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria/March 22/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for March 22/11
The Libya no-fly zone mission runs down. Just 6 warplanes aloft/
DEBKAfile
Protests spread in southern Syria as police move on mosque/AP
Syria’s Daraa hit by fifth day of protests/Now Lebanon
2 Percussion Bombs Tossed near Free Lebanon Radio Adonis HQ/Naharnet
Hariri Slams Nasrallah for 'Harming' Lebanon's Ties with Arabs Through Iranian Policies/Naharnet
Leaked U.S. cables spur more controversy in Lebanon/Daily Star
Protesters march in south Syria for fifth day/Reuters
Shooting of civilians "unacceptable," EU's Ashton tells Syria/Monsters and Critics
Human Rights Concerns In Yemen, Bahrain And Syria/Newsroom America
Erdogan warns Assad to make democratic reforms/Now Lebanon
New Israeli raid on Gaza City kills three/Now Lebanon
Israel arms tanks with new defense system/UPI
The Unraveling Middle East, Part II/FrontPage
Hamas digging 'terror tunnels' along border with Israel/J.Post
Israel Faces a Culture of Hatred and Violence/U.S. News & World Report
Aoun accuses Lebanon president of obstructing cabinet formation/Ya Libnan
Israel Kidnaps 2 Lebanese Shepherds/Naharnet
Beirut Justice Palace Evacuated After Hoax Bomb Threat
/Naharnet
Agreement to Speed up Cabinet Formation, But Lack of Consensus Over Shares
/Naharnet
Jumblat Says he Sought to Unify March 8 Vision During Talks with Aoun
/Naharnet
Aridi Says Aoun-Jumblat Meeting Doesn't Mean Cabinet Will be Formed
/Naharnet
WikiLeaks: Feltman Said Destroying 'Maronistan' Passageways Would Deal a Blow to Embassy
/Naharnet
WikiLeaks: Geagea Said Disarming Hizbullah Key to Toppling Lahoud
/Naharnet
Berri Urges Fast Cabinet Formation, Denies Accusations Against Syria
/Naharnet
Safadi Warns Those Who 'Betrayed' him: Silence is Not a Form of Weakness
/Naharnet
Jumblat Denies Remarks on Banking Sector, Salameh Confirms Banks Not Targeted
/Naharnet
Report: Suleiman Reportedly Said No Cabinet Soon Due to Local, Regional Obstacles/Naharnet
Aoun Denies Obstructing Govt Formation, Accuses Suleiman of Crippling Institutions/Naharnet

The Libya no-fly zone mission runs down. Just 6 warplanes aloft
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 22, 2011, Four days after the Western-Arab coalition decided Saturday, March 19 to enforce a no fly zone over Libya, only six Western warplanes - American, British, Canadian and French - are in the sky at any one time, debkafile's military sources disclose. This is just enough to enforce the no-fly zone over Benghazi – not the rest of Libya. It is also wholly inadequate tor collecting the basic intelligence over Tripoli and other parts of Libya for launching an offensive against Muammar Qaddafi's forces.
The assault therefore ran out of steam after the first barrage of 112 Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from the sea. Monday, a dozen Tomahawks were fired – and only at Qaddafi's coastal compounds for lack of intelligence about the rest of the thirty-one targets first postulated.
The military momentum was slowed substantially also by the haziness of the directives coming down from the coalition members' governments about the offensive's objectives. As the political leaders in Washington, London and Paris stumbled about and contradicted each other, the military commanders responded by confining their mission to the letter of UN Security Council Resolution 1973 of Friday, March 18.
The disagreements between Washington, London and Paris over the essential nature of the operation and its goals brought to light the uncomfortable fact that neither the UK nor France, alone or together, possesses the air power or crews for maintaining the no fly zone. Unless the US expands its aerial participation, most of Libyan air space will remain wide open for Qaddafi's air force to resume operations. By Tuesday, March 22, there was no sign that Washington was willing to deliver – just the reverse. The Obama administration made it clear that its participation would be confined to support functions, such as advanced electronic surveillance craft – no more warplanes.
The US Africa commander Gen. Carter Ham announced from his base in Stuttgart, Germany, that Qaddafi and his regime were not part of "our mission." He pointed out that the Security Council resolution addressed only protection of civilians and not support for the opposition. In London, the British government insisted that Muammar Qaddafi as head of his armed forces was a legitimate target of the coalition offensive. Both UK premier David Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who spearheaded the coalition assault on Libya, have pinned their political hopes on their success in removing Qaddafi from power. They are pushing hard for this end in contrast to Washington.
The Cameron government has even found itself up against the supreme commander of British forces, Gen. Sir David Richards, who openly questioned Qaddafi's legitimacy as a military target. The Obama administration, for its part, has worked itself into a jam: an acerbic argument has developed in the United States over the Libya operation's immediate and final goals.
In his latest comment, President Barack Obama Monday, March 21, stood by this opaque definition: "The goal of the United Nations-sanctioned military action in Libya is to protect citizens, not regime change – but the goal of US policy is that Muammar Qaddafi has to go."
Obama did not explain how or when he proposed to achieve this goal, although for now it is receding. In London this week, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced the US will hand over control and command of the Libya operation "within days." But who would pick up the ball? Neither France nor Britain has the military or logistical resources for taking a lead role in the coalition offensive and, anyway, who would they support? debkafile's military sources stress that the colorful depictions of jubilant Libyan rebels encouraged by the falling Tomahawks to resume their offensive against Qaddafi's forces Monday were misleading at best. According to our sources, their wild talk about retaking Adjabiya on the road to Benghazi referred to a single government A-Saiqa commando platoon, which defected in Benghazi in the early stages of the anti-Qaddafi uprising last month, and was able to drive just 50 kilometers southwest of the town before halting in the desert at a loss where to go next. That platoon is the only organized force the rebels command.
Therefore, to have any chance of their revolt against Qaddafi succeeding, these insurgents would have to rely on American, British and French ground troops fighting government forces on their behalf. That is not going to happen. The US has made it perfectly clear that no American ground forces will be used in Libya, and all Britain and France can command are small commando units. The rebels must therefore be satisfied with holding Benghazi downtown and a few sectors for as long as they can.
leaving the coalition without its Arab component
The Arab component of the Western-Arab anti-Qaddafi coalition, the pre-condition for NATO participation, has faded away since the Arab League's Secretary Amr Moussa developed cold feet after his initial wholehearted support for the operation. In any case, only one Arab country, Qatar, was willing to put up four warplanes for the no-fly zone. Based in Italy, the Qatari pilots have since been directed by Emir Sheikh Al-Thani to cross the Mediterranean only up to the point where the Libyan coast is visible – not an inch further. The United Arab Emirates, initially reported as offering to take part in the Libya mission, has not sent a single plane.

Syria’s Daraa hit by fifth day of protests
March 22, 2011 /The Syrian town of Daraa saw a fifth straight day of anti-regime protests on Tuesday, an activist said. "Around one thousand protestors gathered in and around the Omari Mosque shouting anti-regime slogans, amid a heavy security and army presence," said the activist in Daraa, 100 kilometers south of Damascus. The demonstrators formed a human shield around the mosque to prevent security forces from approaching it, he added. An AFP photographer and videographer in Daraa said their car was stopped in the old town of the city and they were beaten by security forces, who seized their equipment. After being taken in for questioning, they received an apology from the authorities, but had still not received their equipment back. The photographer said soldiers were manning checkpoints at all entries to the town and were cross-checking the identity cards of travelers with a list of names they had compiled.
Syria, which is still under a 1963 emergency law banning demonstrations, has witnessed a string of small but unprecedented protests demanding the end of the ruling regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for one week now. Daraa, a town that is home to large tribal families, has been the focal point of the rallies, the latest in a string of uprisings against long-running autocratic regimes in the Arab world. Six people have been killed in a security crackdown on the Daraa demonstrations, including an 11-year-old boy who died after on Monday inhaling tear gas the day before.-AFP/NOW Lebanon

Protests spread in southern Syria as police move on mosque
By The Associated Press
Protests spread in southern Syria Tuesday as hundreds of people marched to demand reforms in a previously peaceful village, witnesses and activists said.
Troops and protesters faced off in a nearby city outside a mosque where demonstrators have taken shelter. The government sought to contain the first serious intrusion of the Arab world's political unrest by firing the governor of the southern province of Daraa, where security forces killed seven protesters in the main city of Daraa over the weekend. The governor's dismissal failed to quell popular anger and the protests reached the village of Nawa, where hundreds of people marched demanding reforms, an activist told The Associated Press. The activist said troops were trying to reach the mosque in Daraa's historic center where protesters have sought protection. He said protesters placed large rocks in the streets near the al-Omari mosque to block the troops. There was a heavy security presence and most of the shops were closed elsewhere in the old quarter of Daraa, witnesses said.
A clip posted on YouTube showed several hundred villagers in Sanamein, near Daraa, chanting "Freedom!" while another showed dozens gathered in the Hajar Aswad neighborhood of the capital. Syrian activists who reported the protests said they took place Monday evening. The activists spoke on condition of anonymity because they feared government reprisals. The authenticity of the videos could not be independently verified. Protests also spread Monday to the towns of Jasim and Inkhil near Daraa, witnesses said.
Many demonstrators demanded the departure of provincial governor Faisal Kalthoum after security forces used tear gas, water cannons and later live ammunition to disperse the crowds, which first gathered on Friday. Enraged residents then set fire to several government buildings in a startling outburst of unrest in one of the Middle East's most repressive countries.
Kalthoum was fired on Tuesday, a Syrian official said, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with regulations barring him from being identified by name. Daraa residents accused Kalthoum - in office since 2006 - of corruption and during a demonstration Monday many chanted, "The people want to bring down the governor!"
The Damascus-based National Organization for Human Rights in Syria said authorities were continuing arbitrary and random arrests in areas that witnessed protests, adding that families of detainees said none have been freed. Like most Syrian cities, Daraa is home to ultra-orthodox Sunni Muslims. In 2006, security agents arrested 16 Syrians during a three-day sweep in Daraa province, accusing them of membership to the banned Muslim Brotherhood. In Geneva, the UN's human rights office urged Syria to investigate the death of protesters in Daraa. Rupert Colville, a spokesman for the Geneva-based office, said the government should carry out an independent, transparent and effective investigation into the killings. Colville said Tuesday that protesters had the right to express their grievances and be heard by the government.

Erdogan warns Assad to make democratic reforms

Now Lebanon/March 22, 2011 /Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Hurriyet daily on Tuesday that he warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to “make democratic reforms,” amid the growing protests in the latter’s country. The Turkish daily added that Erdogan fears “the protests could turn into a sectarian clash.”“I told him to take lessons from what has been happening in the region,” the newspaper quoted the Turkish PM as saying. Syria, which is still under a 1963 emergency law banning demonstrations, has witnessed a string of small but unprecedented protests demanding the end of the ruling regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for one week now. Daraa, a town that is home to large tribal families, has been the focal point of the rallies, the latest in a string of uprisings against long-running autocratic regimes in the Arab world. Six people have been killed in a security crackdown on the Daraa demonstrations, including an 11-year-old boy who died after on Monday inhaling tear gas the day before.-NOW Lebanon

2 Percussion Bombs Tossed near Free Lebanon Radio Adonis HQ

Naharnet/Two percussion bombs were thrown Tuesday from a speeding car near the HQ of Free Lebanon Radio in the Keserwan neighborhood of Adonis. The state-run National News Agency said four unidentified individuals in a black SUV tossed the bombs a few meters away from the radio station's building. The incident sparked panic among the area's residents, especially that there is a school in the vicinity of the station's building. Beirut, 22 Mar 11, 17:02

Beirut Justice Palace Evacuated After Hoax Bomb Threat

Naharnet/Several halls at Beirut's Justice Palace were evacuated on Tuesday after a bomb threat which turned out to be a hoax, the state-run National News Agency reported.
It said a man made an anonymous phone call saying a bomb was planted in one of the halls. However, a bomb disposal squad did not find any explosives after a thorough search.
"Things went back to normal," NNA added. In December last year, Baabda's Justice Palace also received a hoax bomb threat. Beirut, 22 Mar 11, 12:39

New Israeli raid on Gaza City kills three

March 22, 2011/Three Gazans were killed and another was wounded late on Tuesday in an Israeli air strike on Gaza City, a spokesperson for the Palestinian emergency services said.
"Three people were killed and one person was wounded in an air strike on the Zeitun district," Adham Abu Selmiya told AFP, referring to a neighborhood in the eastern part of the city.
An Israeli military spokesperson confirmed an attack on "a group of terrorists who were preparing to fire rockets towards Israel."Earlier in the evening, four Palestinians, two of them minors, were killed and another 12 people were wounded when the Israelis opened fire towards a house in another neighborhood in eastern Gaza, near the border with Israel.-NOW Lebanon

Hariri Slams Nasrallah for 'Harming' Lebanon's Ties with Arabs Through Iranian Policies

Naharnet/Caretaker Premier Saad Hariri has criticized Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah for claiming to be "the spiritual leader of revolutions in the Arab world."
"Hizbullah's leadership is seeking to make changes in the Arab world via the Iranian way and wants the Lebanese to agree on turning their country into an arena that exports revolutions," Hariri told al-Mustaqbal and Beirut families that visited him at Center House on Monday night. "This policy is rejected by the majority of Lebanese," the Mustaqbal movement leader said.
He slammed Nasrallah for pushing Lebanon into partnering with Arab divisions and for interfering in Bahrain's affairs.Hariri also accused the Hizbullah chief of implementing the policies of foreign countries, in reference to Iran, by verbally attacking Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. "This harms the interest of the Lebanese and their historic relations with the Arabs," Hariri said. Beirut, 22 Mar 11, 14:34

Report: Suleiman Reportedly Said No Cabinet Soon Due to Local, Regional Obstacles

Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman has reportedly ruled out the formation of the cabinet anytime soon, saying that Lebanon has missed investment opportunities over the deadlock.
"Lebanon is missing big economic and investment opportunities over the continued impasse in the formation of the government, particularly at a time of security shakeups in Arab countries," Suleiman's visitors quoted him as saying. They told al-Mustaqbal newspaper in remarks published Tuesday that the president has stressed the cabinet will not be formed soon "over local and regional obstacles." Suleiman "is hoping for the inclusion of all parties in the government but believes in (the need to) procrastinate in order to study the regional situation and its repercussions," the visitors said. However, As Safir daily quoted Suleiman's visitors as saying that the cabinet should be formed immediately to "consolidate the country" at a time of turmoil in the region. They said the president has reiterated that he wouldn't sign a cabinet decree that would create precedence. Beirut, 22 Mar 11, 07:43

Agreement to Speed up Cabinet Formation, But Lack of Consensus Over Shares
Naharnet/Premier-designate Najib Miqati has said contacts on the formation of the government are making progress and stressed all problems could be solved.In remarks to As Safir newspaper published Tuesday, Miqati said: "The channels of contact are open in all directions and are making progress.""All problems can be solved and the atmosphere is more comfortable and better than before," he added. Miqati's circles stressed to As Safir and An Nahar dailies that the premier-designate was waiting for local consensus and agreement on shares, denying that the formation of the cabinet needed a Syrian-Saudi deal. "We are only waiting for an internal agreement to form a balanced and productive government," they said. Refuting claims that Miqati was waiting for the Syrian green light, the circles said the regional turmoil should be "an incentive to speed up the formation of the cabinet."Despite rumors that the prime minister-designate's task is facing many obstacles, a March 8 official told An Nahar that Miqati is now discussing with involved parties the distribution of portfolios."We are confident that Miqati has no choice but to take steps forward and not to back off from his mission," the official said. However, he stressed that no specific date was set for the formation of the cabinet. "All we can say is that the (government's) birth is approaching." Beirut, 22 Mar 11, 09:40

Aoun Denies Obstructing Govt Formation, Accuses Suleiman of Crippling Institutions

Naharnet/Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun on Tuesday denied that he was behind the delay in forming the new cabinet, accusing President Michel Suleiman of "crippling governance and state institutions."Briefing reporters after the weekly meeting of the Change and Reform parliamentary bloc, Aoun said that "whatever the shape of the new cabinet may be, it remains the cabinet of the new majority." "That's why we should not act against ourselves. Everyone must realize that this cabinet is being formed by parties belonging to the same camp," he added. "There's nothing new concerning the cabinet formation process and we are hearing ambiguous remarks about the subject. If they want technocrats, we have qualified candidates," Aoun went on to say. He stressed that Prime Minister-designate Najib Miqati still enjoys the FPM's trust. Addressing the latest alleged WikiLeaks cables published by Al-Akhbar newspaper about supposed meetings between U.S. diplomats and FPM officials, Aoun said: "I bore full responsibility for my alliance with Hizbullah and I succeeded and we did not incite against anyone during the July 2006 war." "We did not join an electoral coalition to win the parliamentary majority and then betray our allies like the Mustaqbal Movement did," Aoun said of the infamous quadrilateral electoral coalition that comprised Mustaqbal Movement, Progressive Socialist Party, Hizbullah and AMAL Movement during the 2005 parliamentary elections.
Aoun also slammed the rally organized by the March 14 forces to commemorate the 6th anniversary of the Cedar Revolution. "Under which constitution are you organizing rallies for the sake of power? If you want the law of force, we are ready and no one can blame us," Aoun said. On the other hand, he noted that his meeting with Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat on Monday was aimed at evaluating the regional situations. "Because they are of concern to us," Aoun told reporters. Beirut, 22 Mar 11, 19:18

Aridi Says Aoun-Jumblat Meeting Doesn't Mean Cabinet Will be Formed

Naharnet/Caretaker Minister Ghazi Aridi confirmed on Tuesday that the meeting between National Struggle Front leader Walid Jumblat and Free Patriotic Movement chief Michel Aoun was a continuation to previous talks held between the two parties. Jumblat's meeting with Aoun "doesn't necessarily mean that the cabinet will be formed," Aridi told Voice of Mada radio station. In answering a question about Monday's talks in Rabiyeh, Aridi denied media reports that Jumblat was a mediator between Aoun and Premier-designate Najib Miqati. He called for "direct communication between all the parties, especially between Aoun and Miqati, to end the bickering" over the cabinet. Concerning an invitation to the Progressive Socialist Party leader to visit Tehran, Aridi said: "Jumblat will visit Iran at the appropriate time." Beirut, 22 Mar 11, 11:18

Safadi Warns Those Who 'Betrayed' him: Silence is Not a Form of Weakness

Naharnet/Caretaker Minister of Economy and Trade Mohammed Safadi criticized on Monday those who accused him of "betrayal" after Prime Minister-designate Najib Miqati's election, warning that they should not consider his silence as a sign of weakness.He said: "We are the most eager to adopt a position that would unite Lebanon's Sunnis. We are the most eager to uncover the truth behind the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and we will confront anyone who tarnishes his image.""Why haven't they equipped the army enough so that it would be able to protect the country?" he asked. "We support the legitimate arms, but given that the army is not being strengthened, we will not present a free gift to Israel and we will not deprive Lebanon of a power that we want incorporated into a defense strategy," the minister added. "We support the resistance against the enemy and we have never shied away from condemning the use of weapons on the internal scene and we reject any justification for such an action," he continued. Safadi demanded a halt to "accusations of treason, the falsification of facts, and manipulation of people's feelings.""We reject strife even if they lure us into it and we insist on dialogue as the only way to settle disputes," he stressed. Beirut, 21 Mar 11, 18:41


Minister Cannon Condemns Ongoing Violence in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria
http://www.international.gc.ca/media/aff/news-communiques/2011/113.aspx
(No. 113 - March 21, 2011 - 5 p.m. ET) The Honourable Lawrence Cannon, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement concerning the situations in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria: “Canada vigorously condemns the increasingly frequent and violent attacks on demonstrators in Yemen. We urge the Yemeni authorities to immediately take measures to prevent any further violence against civilians.
“Canada is also deeply concerned by the recent actions taken by the Government of Bahrain in response to protests in that country. We urge the authorities to promptly restore an environment favourable to open dialogue among all Bahraini stakeholders. Canada condemns reported human rights abuses against the Bahraini population and violations of international humanitarian law.
“Canada deplores the multiple deaths and injuries following protests in several Syrian cities over the weekend. We urge the Government of Syria to respect the fundamental human rights of its people and to immediately stop using force against peaceful demonstrators.
“Canadians are urged to read Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada’s travel reports for Yemen, Bahrain and Syria as well as to visit the Security Situation in the Middle East and North Africa page for travel advice applicable to the region.”

The Proxy Battle in Bahrain
Lynsey Addario for The New York Times
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN
Published: March 19, 2011
CAIRO — King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has demonstrated one lesson learned from the course of pro-democracy uprisings across the Middle East: The world may cheer when autocrats resign, but it picks carefully which autocrats to punish for opening fire on their citizens.
Fleeing The clashes between the Bahraini police and protesters have put the United States in a difficult spot.
That cynical bit of realpolitik seems to have led the king to send troops last week over the causeway from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain, where they backed up a violent crackdown on unarmed protesters by Bahrain’s own security forces.
The move had immediate consequences for Middle East politics, and for American policy: It transformed Bahrain into the latest proxy battle between Iran and Saudi Arabia for regional dominance. And it called into question which model of stability and governance will prevail in the Middle East, and which Washington will help build: one based on consensus and hopes for democracy, or continued reliance on strongmen who intimidate opponents, sow fear and co-opt reformist forces while protecting American interests like ensuring access to oil and opposing Iran. For Saudi Arabia, the issue in Bahrain is less whether Bahrain will attain popular rule than whether Iranian and Shiite influence will grow.
Iran and Saudi Arabia have sparred on many fronts since the Iranian Revolution of 1979 — a Shiite Muslim theocracy in Tehran versus a deeply conservative Sunni Muslim monarchy in Riyadh — in a struggle for supremacy in the world’s most oil-rich region. The animosity was evident in Saudi Arabia’s support for Iraq during its war with Iran, and it still shows in Iran’s backing for Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Now, after a decade that seemed to tilt the regional balance toward Iran, Saudi Arabia decided that Bahrain was the place to put its thumb more heavily on the scale. It sent troops under the auspices of the Gulf Cooperation Council to help crush pro-democracy demonstrations because most of the protesters were Shiites challenging a Sunni king.
“If the political opposition in Bahrain wins, Saudi loses in this regional context,” said Mustafa el-Labbad, director of Al Sharq Center for Regional and Strategic Studies in Cairo. “Saudi is regarding itself as the defender of Sunnis. And Iran is trying to defend Shiites in the region.”
The problem for the United States, however, is that Bahrain, at Saudi urging, chose to resolve its fears with force, rather than by addressing the protesters’ demands for democratic reform, as American officials had publicly encouraged.
And for that reason, the military deployment may now have a profound impact on the United States and its primary strategic interest in Bahrain, the Navy base it maintains there.
Because Washington did not ultimately support the protesters’ demands — as it came to do in Egypt and as it has now, very late in the game, come to back foreign intervention in Libya — many protesters believe that the Saudi troops were sent in with American complicity, or at least with an expectation of American acquiescence. So, among the protesters, who turned out by the tens of thousands, the crackdown may well yield animosity toward America and its Navy when events finally settle down.
One American expert in the Persian Gulf who advises policymakers in Washington said the Saudi king’s action was taken without regard for what might happen if it fails — if the violence leads only to more violence. The Saudi policy, he said, “is risky and could potentially draw us into conflicts we have not looked for.”
“What if the Bahrain venture fails, who will bail them out? It will have to be us.”
Saudi Arabia’s supporters acknowledge that this confrontation can escalate, but they tend to place the responsibility on Iran. “It can lead to that direct conflict if Iran were to interfere and use this as an excuse to interfere,” said Abdulaziz O. Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Center, which is based in Dubai. “I hope Iran can understand that any interference will not be acceptable.”
There has been no evidence that Iran played a part in Bahrain’s uprising, which was led by young Bahrainis from the Shiite majority. Still, many protesters have said, it is reasonable to expect Shiites to be more receptive to Iran if they do gain power. There is little doubt, they also say, that a Shiite-led government would be less receptive to the Saudis.
Times Topic: Bahrain News — The Protests (2011)Even some of the Iranian regime’s harshest critics are saying the Saudi military venture in Bahrain will change the narrative of the region in Iran’s favor. Abbas Milani, an Iranian who went into exile after the 1979 revolution and is now director of Iranian studies at Stanford University, put it this way: “Iran, as the most brutal authoritarian regime in the region, will now have the chance to seem to stand with the democratic aspirations of the people, and against authoritarians clinging to power.”
The Saudi king’s decision to back King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa’s crackdown in Bahrain also underscored the challenge the United States often faces with its closest allies in the Middle East, where some interests align — like protecting the flow of oil — and others do not, like financing global terrorism. Saudi Arabia has moved aggressively to cut off radical Islamic terrorism within its own borders, but it has addressed the global phenomenon with far less conviction, many American experts have said.
One of those experts was Richard C. Holbrooke, the United States special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan. Shortly before his death last year, he was asked if heroin was the top source of funds for the Taliban. The answer was no. “It’s the gulf,” he said, meaning cash from sources in Saudi Arabia and another American ally, Kuwait.
One effect of the crackdown was to underscore President Obama’s failure to close the gap in expectations between his talk of democracy during his historic speech in Cairo in 2009 and his actions on the ground. The contortions needed to preserve the old model of stability while supporting aspirations for democracy were strikingly evident in a comment by Senator John Kerry, an ally of the president. “They are not looking for violence in the streets,” the senator said of the Saudi troops moving into Bahrain. “They would like to encourage the king and others to engage in reforms and a dialogue.”
Time quickly proved him wrong. The violence started the next day, and it was not only Iran that blamed Washington. “Where are the Americans, where are the Americans, why are they allowing this, they are killing us with heavy guns, where are the Americans?” shrieked Hussein Muhammad, 37, a bookstore owner and political activist, in a breathless phone call Wednesday from Manama.
When the tear gas cleared, the streets of Manama were littered with canisters that said, on their side, that they had been made in the United States.
While Washington has pressed for restraint, it has also continued to support the monarchy.
“My guess is that there are probably very significant parts of our government that were happy with this,” said Daniel C. Kurtzer, a professor at Princeton who was ambassador to Egypt under President Bill Clinton, and to Israel under President George W. Bush. “Although they are not able to say it, because other parts of our government see it as destabilizing. I think parts of our government are looking at the Iranian threat and the possibility of Bahrain being the first dominoes in the gulf to fall.”
Mr. Kurtzer pointed to an irony in that line of thought: the decision to support Bahrain’s king this time may undermine short-run interests the United States thought it was protecting. For 60 years, the United States has based the Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. It operates openly, and its personnel have enjoyed largely unrestricted freedom of movement around the kingdom.
But last week, the Navy authorized family members and nonessential personnel to leave. The question now is: How safe will United States ships and personnel be surrounded by a population that may see Americans as complicit in the crackdown?