LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِJanuary 22/2010

Bible Of The Day
Isaiah/3/1-12: "For, behold, the Lord, Yahweh of Armies, takes away from Jerusalem and from Judah supply and support, the whole supply of bread, and the whole supply of water; 3:2 the mighty man, the man of war, the judge, the prophet, the diviner, the elder, 3:3 the captain of fifty,  the honorable man, the counselor, the skilled craftsman, and the clever enchanter. 3:4 I will give boys to be their princes, and children shall rule over them. 3:5 The people will be oppressed, everyone by another, and everyone by his neighbor. The child will behave himself proudly against the old man, and the base against the honorable. 3:6 Indeed a man shall take hold of his brother in the house of his father, saying, “You have clothing, you be our ruler, and let this ruin be under your hand.” 3:7 In that day he will cry out, saying, “I will not be a healer; for in my house is neither bread nor clothing. You shall not make me ruler of the people.” 3:8 For Jerusalem is ruined, and Judah is fallen; because their tongue and their doings are against Yahweh, to provoke the eyes of his glory. 3:9 The look of their faces testify against them. They parade their sin like Sodom. They don’t hide it. Woe to their soul! For they have brought disaster upon themselves. 3:10 Tell the righteous “Good!” For they shall eat the fruit of their deeds. 3:11 Woe to the wicked! Disaster is upon them; for the deeds of his hands will be paid back to him. 3:12 As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. My people, those who lead you cause you to err, and destroy the way of your paths.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
The end of the affair/Michael Young/January 21/11
Saad Hariri's speech of January 20/2011
How justice for Rafiq Hariri's killers could help the Middle East/Washington Post/January 21/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 21/11 
Lebanon's Druze leader says backs Hezbollah/Reuters
Lebanon Political Crisis Deepens/CBS News
Chamoun's National Liberal Party : March 14 is being asked to surrender/Now Lebanon
Monday Consultations on Forming New Government Likely to be Postponed, Suleiman Sources/Naharnet
Sfeir Never Hesitated in Taking Positions in Lebanon's Interest/Naharnet
Clinton Says Lebanese Must Find Their Own Way Out of Crisis/Naharnet
Jumblat to Support Karami for Premiership: Naming Hariri Will Lead to Catastrophic Results/Naharnet
Abul Gheit: Whoever Wants to Mess with Lebanon Stability Will Have to Face Local, Arab Foes/Naharnet
Al-Faisal Surprised by 'Erroneous Interpretations,' Stresses Support for Lebanese Legitimacy/Naharnet
Hariri challenges Nasrallah, announces bid to lead new government/DEBKAfile
Syria's Assad rocked by four bombings in Aleppo/World Tribune
Hezbollah ally questions Hariri's tenure/UPI
Turkey, Qatar suspend mediation in Lebanon/Washington Times
Lebanese Crisis Deepens as Talks Break Down/New York Times
Lebanon's trial/Washington Post
Hezbollah, Amal officials head to Syria, report/Ya Libnan
Lebanon crisis a test for the US/ABC Online
Israel concerned about possible fallout from Lebanon government split/Christian Science Monitor
Saudi Arabia says to maintain backing Lebanon's majority/Xinhua
Berri Welcomes Hariri's Speech but Says Cabinet Formation Won't be Easy/Naharnet
Soaid Doesn't Rule Out Hizbullah Effort to Resort to the Street to Nominate Karami/Naharnet
Monday Consultations on Forming New Government Likely to be Postponed, Suleiman Sources/Naharnet
Le Roy: UNIFIL Took 'Precautionary Measures' to Confront any Possible Deterioration of Situation/Naharnet
March 14 Re-Nominates Hariri/Naharnet
Assad, Hamad Stress 'Importance of Preventing Aggravation of Situation in Lebanon'/Naharnet
Jumblat Resolute to Vote for Opposition PM, But Not Sure All Allied MPs Will Vote against Hariri/Naharnet
France's FM in Mideast Peace Push, To Discuss Lebanon/Naharnet
Aoun Challenges al-Faisal and Says Hariri Can't be Imposed on March 8/Naharnet
Airtight Security Dragnet Around Hariri's Office as Crisis Deepens/Naharnet

Syria's Assad rocked by four bombings in Aleppo
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2011/me_syria0042_01_20.asp
WASHINGTON — Thursday, January 20, 2011/ The Syrian opposition reported that the regime of President Bashar Assad has been shaken by four suicide attacks in one day. The opposition said the bombings took place in the northern city of Aleppo on Jan. 17, and at least seven people were killed. "The car bombs were detonated in the Ashrafiyeh area mostly populated by the Kurds," the Washington-based Reform Party of Syria said. "The Assad regime has successfully suppressed the information from reaching the outside world." RPS said the Syrian opposition has been galvanized by the successful revolt in Tunisia. The statement said Syrians have been stunned by the sudden flight of Tunisian President Zein Al Abidine Bin Ali, who found a haven in Saudi Arabia. Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria, has long been regarded as a hotbed of unrest. In addition to the Kurds, Aleppo has a large Sunni population with sympathy for Al Qaida. "Sending military reinforcements to Aleppo is counterproductive to the regime because the majority of the foot soldiers in the Syrian Army are Sunni Muslims," RPS said. "Turning their guns on Damascus is the last thing Assad can afford in a post-Tunisia atmosphere." In a Jan. 19 statement, RPS, regarded as a reliable opposition source, said many people were also injured in the bombing. So far, nobody has claimed responsibility for what was regarded as the worst attack on the Assad regime in at least two years. "Some experts claim it is the work of the regime itself as a warning shot across the bow against any uprising by the Kurds a la Tunisia," RPS said. The Syrian government has not confirmed the attacks. Over the last year, Kurdish unrest has risen in northern Syria, particularly near the borders of Iraq and Turkey.

Monday Consultations on Forming New Government Likely to be Postponed, Suleiman Sources
Naharnet/Consultations on forming a new government -- scheduled to begin on Monday – are likely to be postponed to give negotiations a chance, President Michel Suleiman sources told al-Amustaqbal newspaper in remarks published Friday. "There is serious talk in this context, and President Michel Suleiman is seeking contacts in two directions: the first is regional-political and internal with the various parties, and the second is security with the concerned security authorities to prevent violations that could occur in the street, " one source said. Experts and politicians have predicted a protracted crisis that could lead to similar violence as that in May 2008, which brought the country close to a new civil war. Beirut, 21 Jan 11, 10:37

Hariri: Sfeir Never Hesitated in Taking Positions in Lebanon's Interest
Naharnet/Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri stated on Friday that Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir's submission of his resignation requires a "moment of contemplation that goes beyond the feelings of appreciation and respect for a career spanning a quarter of century." He said in a letter directed to the patriarch: "Throughout his career, he never hesitated in taking the position that falls in Lebanon's interest and committing to principles that constitute Lebanese values."For his part, Sfeir thanked Hariri for the positions he made Thursday night Later on Friday, Hariri received at the Center House the Cypriot Foreign Minister Marcos Kyprianou at the head of a delegation. After the meeting, Kyprianou said: "Cyprus is not just a neighbor of Lebanon, but also a friend and a close ally, and you can rely on us as a strong supporter within the European Union. Talks will be held in the coming days in Brussels in the framework of a ministerial meeting, and the talks will deal with the situation in Lebanon.""I will hold a series of meetings with the officials in Lebanon, to get informed on the situation here, and will share this information with my colleagues in Brussels," he continued. "What is important is that any initiative that could take place during this European meeting will only aim to help resolve the various issues in Lebanon, but always in the framework of the full respect of the sovereignty of this country," he stressed. Hariri also received the Uruguayan House Speaker, Ivonne Pasada, at the head of a parliamentary delegation. Pasada said after the talks: "We informed Hariri of the importance of holding joint agreements between our two countries in order to bring our two peoples closer together, knowing that they are geographically distant but they share a similar history." She added: "We signed an agreement between the parliaments in both Lebanon and Uruguay, and this will be an opportunity for us to deepen the relations between our two countries." Beirut, 21 Jan 11, 15:58

Jumblat Resolute to Vote for Opposition PM, But Not Sure All Allied MPs Will Vote against Hariri
Naharnet/Druze leader Walid Jumblat can only secure five votes from his Democratic Gathering parliamentary bloc, including his own vote, March 14 sources told An-Nahar newspaper in remarks published Friday. The sources said most Democratic Gathering MPs refuse to give up on the nomination of Saad Hariri as Lebanon's next prime minister.  They noted that a "conflict" revolves around seven votes. The majority of votes, the sources said, were considered during a consultative meeting on Thursday at "a secret place," during which it was established that the March 14 coalition still enjoyed the majority. Jumblat, who holds the decisive vote in Parliament, will reportedly declare his position on Hariri's nomination at a news conference that was rescheduled for Friday afternoon. He told As-Safir newspaper in remarks published Friday that he will take a "carefully-studied" stance. Beirut, 21 Jan 11, 07:17

Jumblat to Support Karami for Premiership: Naming Hariri Will Lead to Catastrophic Results
Naharnet/Naharnet has learned that Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat has informed concerned officials in the Mustqbal movement that he is being subject to great pressures against naming Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri as the premier of a new government, knowing that he had previously informed Hariri that he would be naming him.
Jumblat did not elaborate on the reasons for his new position.However, he did inform his circles that the policy of insisting on Hariri as the new prime minister will lead to "catastrophic consequences" on the security field, on him personally, PSP members, and the Druze in the Shouf, Alley, Hasbaya, and the western Bekaa. Jumblat added that matters "have become greater than him and his ability to maintain the middle ground in a harsh battle in which Hariri's regional and international backers only resort to statements, while his opponents turn to all manners of military and popular pressure." The MP revealed that he has now been forced to name former PM Omar Karami as the new prime minister and that he will place the PSP MPs before their responsibilities, adding that he has not given them a choice to name a prime minister and everyone should be held accountable for their actions should they not take his advice. Beirut, 20 Jan 11, 16:08

Hariri Says Will Run Again for Premier, Vows to Accept Consultations Result
Naharnet/aretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri confirmed on Thursday his candidacy for a new term, after Hizbullah and its allies prompted the collapse of his government last week. "A constitutional process is under way and we will accept its results despite intimidation on the street and elsewhere," Hariri said in a televised address to the nation. "We will go to the parliamentary consultations organized by the president on Monday and I remain committed as a candidate, in line with my parliamentary bloc's decision," he added.
Hariri accused Hizbullah, without naming it, of seeking his political demise and of rejecting any compromise to break the current impasse that has plunged the country into a deep crisis.
The standoff between Hariri's camp and Hizbullah is linked to a dispute over a U.N.-backed probe into the 2005 assassination of Hariri's father, former premier Rafik Hariri.
On Monday, Special Tribunal for Lebanon Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare submitted a sealed indictment in the case, which is now being reviewed by STL Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen.
Hizbullah has said it expects some of its members to be implicated by the tribunal, which the party accuses of being part of a U.S.-Israeli plot. Hariri said efforts by Qatar and Turkey to mediate in the crisis had failed because of Hizbullah's insistence to prevent his return as premier. "At dawn, they (Hizbullah) informed the Qatari and Turkish mediators that they wanted one thing ... for Saad Hariri not to return as head of government," he said. "They put aside all other solutions ... and demanded only that Saad Hariri be prevented from once again becoming premier." He warned Lebanon stood at a decisive juncture which could plunge the country into an abyss. "If the Lebanese leaders decide to move away from this abyss, Lebanon will be safe," he said. Hariri vowed his camp would not impose its agenda through violence as it had chosen the legal path. "We will not resort to the streets because from the onset we have chosen state institutions," he said. "One single drop of Lebanese blood is worth more to me than all power," he added. Consultations on forming a new government are scheduled to begin on Monday but experts and politicians have predicted a protracted crisis that could lead to similar violence as that in May 2008, which brought the country close to a new civil war.
Tension soared on Tuesday after dozens of black-clad unarmed Hizbullah supporters appeared on the streets of several neighborhoods of west Beirut, prompting schools to shut down and the army to deploy in those areas.(AFP) Beirut, 20 Jan 11, 21:10

One of Qabbani's Bodyguards Killed by Friendly Fire, Civilian Injured
Naharnet/A bodyguard of Mufti Sheikh Mohammed Rashid Qabbani was killed in a friendly fire and another civilian was injured in the Beirut neighborhood of Aisha Bakkar. Policeman Youssef Shbaqlo was killed and Mohammed al-Rassem was wounded when several shots were fired from the bodyguard's gun as he was putting his weapon at a depot. A communiqué released by the Internal Security Forces General-Directorate said the incident took place at 10:30 am after the Mufti's motorcade returned to his home in Aisha Bakkar. The shots were fired when the bodyguard was handing over the gun to his chief, the communiqué added.Al-Rassem was mildly wounded in his foot and was taken to the American University of Beirut. Beirut, 21 Jan 11, 14:06

Berri Welcomes Hariri's Speech but Says Cabinet Formation Won't be Easy
Naharnet/Speaker Nabih Berri welcomed Caretaker Premier Saad Hariri's speech and lauded the Mustaqbal movement leader's decision to abide by the constitution and accept democratic results. However, in remarks to An Nahar and As Safir dailies on Friday, Berri wondered why the March 14 forces severely criticized the March 8 alliance's "constitutional" decision to resign from the government. "We exercised our constitutional right to resign from the cabinet," he said. "A constitutional process is under way and we will accept its results despite intimidation on the street and elsewhere," Hariri said in a televised address to the nation on Thursday. "We will go to the parliamentary consultations organized by the president on Monday and I remain committed as a candidate, in line with my parliamentary bloc's decision," he added to applause from party members. "I welcome Hariri's speech as much as former PM Fouad Saniora welcomed it," Berri told An Nahar and As Safir.However, he stressed that no matter which side wins in its choice for the premiership nominee, "the government won't be formed easily." Beirut, 21 Jan 11, 08:45

March 14 Re-Nominates Hariri
Naharnet/The majority March 14 coalition announced it was re-nominating Saad Hariri as their candidate for the premiership. The announcement was made shortly after Hariri delivered a speech, declaring his re-nomination. The position came after a late Wednesday meeting of the March 14 leaders at Hariri's residence in Qoreitem. The coalition also warned against March 8's "ongoing attempts to seize political power through pressures." Beirut, 21 Jan 11, 06:23

Abul Gheit: Whoever Wants to Mess with Lebanon Stability Will Have to Face Local, Arab Foes
Naharnet/Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit has stressed that Lebanon will not be able to "turn the page on political assassinations forever without achieving justice," noting that stability in Lebanon was "everyone's essential demand.""Any party that wants to mess with it (stability) will have to confront several foes -- Lebanese, Arabs and others," Abul Gheit said in an interview with Kuwaiti daily Al-Rai to be published Friday. "Egypt is in contact with the Lebanese parties, as well as with Arab and international parties, and we're using these contacts to stress the elements of the Egyptian stance and help achieve the difficult equation: preserving stability in Lebanon together with adhering to achieving justice," he added. Asked about what caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri was required to do during this period, Abul Gheit said: "We believe that Sheikh Saad Hariri has taken constructive and positive stances for the sake of his country throughout the past months, and it will be unfair that he be asked to endorse stances that go beyond what he has already voiced." "Egypt totally sympathizes with Saad Hariri's position and appreciates his stances, and we believe that his vision for Lebanon can bring together the biggest number of his country's parties, and it is a vision that is supported by Egypt," the Egyptian minister stressed. Beirut, 20 Jan 11, 18:57

Le Roy: UNIFIL Took 'Precautionary Measures' to Confront any Possible Deterioration of Situation
Naharnet/U.N. Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Affairs Alain Le Roy expressed "deep concern" over the situation in Lebanon and said UNIFIL has taken "precautionary measures" to confront any possible deterioration. "We are deeply concerned over the political developments particularly in Beirut," Le Roy said in New York on Thursday.
"We are taking precautionary measures," he said. Asked about Israeli warnings from a deterioration of the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border, Le Roy said: "We haven't seen any suspicious movement on the border between Lebanon and Israel." He said UNIFIL's mission is to guarantee that the U.N.-drawn Blue Line won't be affected by any deterioration.
UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti stressed on Thursday that peacekeepers did not make changes to the "security and protection" measures that they had already taken.
"UNIFIL has already taken comprehensive security and protection measures. No changes were made" following the collapse of the Lebanese government, Tenenti told As Safir daily. Beirut, 21 Jan 11, 08:15

Soaid Doesn't Rule Out Hizbullah Effort to Resort to the Street to Nominate Karami
Naharnet/March 14 General-Secretariat Coordinator Fares Soaid stressed that the ruling coalition was the strongest in Lebanon and accused the March 8 alliance of seeking to bring in a new premier by the force of arms. "We are still the strongest team because we hold onto the right of the Lebanese to decide their fate," Soaid told pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat in remarks published Friday. "We reject attempts by an armed party to lay its hand on Lebanon." "It is clear that the other party will nominate (former PM) Omar Karami after MP Walid Jumblat announced that he would vote for the March 8 team" during the parliamentary consultations next week, he said.
"Meaning, they would bring in a prime minister under the force of arms," Soaid told Asharq al-Awsat. He didn't rule out an attempt by Hizbullah to exert pressure to nominate Karami by resorting to the street before the consultations. In remarks to Voice of Lebanon, the voice of dignity and freedom, radio station, Soaid said the postponement of parliamentary consultations from last Monday to January 24 paved way for "parties that own weapons to terrorize citizens." Beirut, 21 Jan 11, 11:13

Airtight Security Dragnet Around Hariri's Office as Crisis Deepens
Naharnet/Lebanese troops tightened security around Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri's office and other government buildings Thursday as a political crisis deepened over the international tribunal. A senior security official confirmed to The Associated Press that the security measures in and around Beirut stem from "concerns of movements on the ground by some parties." Special police forces were seen hauling cement barriers around the Grand Serail in Beirut and putting up reinforcements around government buildings and banks. Tanks deployed in many areas of the city. The new measures follow the departure from Beirut of Qatari and Turkish mediators after two days of talks that apparently failed to resolve the differences between Lebanon's main rival factions and bring them back together in a coalition government.(AP-Naharnet) Beirut, 20 Jan 11, 13:34

Al-Faisal Surprised by 'Erroneous Interpretations,' Stresses Support for Lebanese Legitimacy
Naharnet/Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said he was surprised by the "erroneous interpretations" of his remarks on the situation in Lebanon and stressed support for Lebanese legitimacy. In a statement to the Saudi Press Agency, al-Faisal denied that he had told al-Arabiya TV network there was a change in Saudi policy towards Lebanon. "This is untrue. Only the mediation has changed," said al-Faisal. On Wednesday, al-Faisal told al-Arabiya that Riyadh abandoned efforts to mediate in Lebanon's political crisis, warning of a "dangerous" situation. He stressed to SPA on Friday that his country "will continue to back Lebanese legitimacy because it is the basis for Lebanon's stability and its security and safety."
Al-Faisal reiterated that Riyadh supports the Lebanese parliamentary majority headed by Caretaker PM Saad Hariri. Beirut, 21 Jan 11, 09:44

The end of the affair
Michael Young, January 21, 2011
Now Lebanon/While there is still some doubt as to what will happen next Monday, when President Michel Sleiman will call for consultations to form a new government, the likelihood is that Saad Hariri will not return as prime minister. If so, this could represent the end of the experiment of 2005, when the Lebanese came out in droves after the assassination of Rafik Hariri to demand a Syrian withdrawal and a sovereign Lebanon in which the rule of law would prevail.
The numbers don’t look good for Hariri. The Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt, has switched sides, evidently under threat from Hezbollah, which reportedly cut off all contacts with him after he declared earlier this week that he would support a Hariri bid. But even if Jumblatt fails to bring his entire bloc over to the opposition, the race is close enough where even a few abstentions by individuals elected on Hariri lists in 2009 – for example Muhammad Safadi, Najib Mikati, Ahmad Karami, and Qassem Abdul Aziz – would ensure victory for an opposition candidate who will have the advantage of unified support.
Where Hariri’s decision to go to consultations may have an impact is in determining which Sunni stands against him. If Omar Karami is the favorite, the former prime minister may yet hesitate to accept the poisoned apple of a contest against the most legitimate of Sunni politicians. The next head of government will have the unenviable task of ending Lebanon’s ties with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, and in that way will be perceived by his coreligionists as covering for Rafik Hariri’s assassins. If Karami decides not to run as a consequence, the opposition would have to bring in an even less credible Sunni figure, which would make even trickier and more contentious the measures taken against the tribunal.
The new government, if Hezbollah and its allies win, will be lacking in legitimacy, with a vast majority of Sunnis and a large proportion of Christians opposing it; but it will also enjoy all the advantages that accompany being in power. It will take over state institutions and the army will implement its orders. That this will represent a coup of major magnitude against the Lebanon that had struggled to consolidate itself on the gains of 2005 is obvious. One can also expect that the new team will go a long way toward dismantling what March 14 built up in the years following the Hariri murder.
The new government will almost immediately sever ties with the Special Tribunal, precipitating a crisis with the international community. How the United Nations reacts will be important, because this will have a definite echo in Beirut, where Hariri will seek to portray himself as the leader of a principled opposition unwilling to abandon justice on behalf of the victims of political crimes in the past five years. The standard warnings against Syria will not do the trick. Unless there is a concerted international effort to go to the wall on Lebanon, the country will remain an Iranian outpost with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fronting this state of affairs, because his doing otherwise means surrendering Syria’s Lebanese stakes.
A key indicator will be the economy. While a run on the banks may not happen soon, or at all, overall confidence in the financial management of the Aounists and Hezbollah will almost certainly decline. We can probably assume that Gulf money to bolster the economy will go down, since Saudi Arabia, above all, will think twice before handing the Hezbollah-controlled government an economic lifeline. Perhaps it’s not a bad thing that Michel Aoun and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah will finally have to put their money, literally, where their mouth is and manage Lebanon’s accounts, though most people would surely prefer not to become their guinea pigs.
If Hezbollah takes effective control in Beirut, this will represent an essential challenge for the international community, above and beyond what it means for the Special Tribunal. Such a development will make very relative Hamas’ takeover of the Gaza Strip. While the new government will try to sell itself more as a Syrian than an Iranian construct, the fact is that it will be propped up by Hezbollah’s bayonets, with Syria facing the discomfort of being blamed for the behavior of a cabinet actually controlled by Tehran. Can the world’s leading states accept a Hezbollah-dominated administration in Beirut? The unfortunate answer is that there may be little they can do against it, at least enough to shake Nasrallah’s determination.
But what about Israel? Can Israel accept a Hezbollah-dominated cabinet in Beirut, whose policy statement will beyond question further reinforce Lebanon’s official endorsement of the party’s weapons? For a time it might if Hezbollah maintains calm along the Lebanese-Israeli border, as the party has an interest in doing. However, we can also expect Israeli military officials to upgrade their contingency plans for Lebanon, this time with American encouragement, so that any future conflict is one that cripples Hezbollah for good.
It’s difficult to see how Damascus gains from this situation. The late Syrian president, Hafez al-Assad, sent his soldiers into Lebanon in 1976 to prevent the onset of a Palestine Liberation Organization-ruled Lebanese state, fearing that this would lead to an Israeli-Lebanese war that might draw in a weaker Syria. Yet Bashar al-Assad, unlike his father, is on the verge of consenting to such a situation, and it is Syria, not Iran, that will be in the front lines.
What lies ahead will not be easy for Hezbollah and Syria to manage. Hezbollah’s single-minded focus on undermining the Special Tribunal is compelling it to make mistakes elsewhere. Sponsoring a government against Lebanon’s Sunnis and a large share of the Christians, who despite their decline still represent the economic backbone of the country, is a disaster waiting to happen. Weapons can do many things, but they cannot purchase legitimacy and prosperity.
Lebanon is bound to suffer as the irresistible force of Lebanese sectarianism meets the immovable object of Hezbollah’s weapons. My bet is on sectarianism, but the price paid could be prohibitive.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut and author of the recent The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle (Simon & Schuster).

National Liberal Party : March 14 is being asked to surrender
January 21, 2011
“The March 14 alliance is being asked to surrender in return for the March 8 coalition not using [its] arms,” the National Liberal Party said in a statement issued following the Friday meeting of its higher council.
The NLP called on President Michel Sleiman to not postpone the parliamentary consultations for a new premier again.
“Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal’s latest statement is a clear evidence of Hezbollah’s refusal to make any concessions,” the statement added.
The NLP added that Tuesday’s gatherings carried “revolutionary intentions.”
Crowds of young men gathered in some Beirut neighborhoods early Tuesday morning, causing some schools to close amid fears of potential violence. Parents were seen taking their children out of classesz.
Faisal said in an interview with Al-Arabiya television on Wednesday that his country has abandoned mediation efforts in Lebanon, where he described the situation as "dangerous.”
Beirut has been in political turmoil since the UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) on Monday filed indictments for the 2005 murder of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri implicating the powerful Hezbollah group—a move that prompted the collapse of the Western-backed unity government led by his son, Saad Hariri.
Saad Hariri is now heading a caretaker government pending the outcome of consultations already postponed to next Monday between Sleiman and parliamentarians.
Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement said that they will not back Hariri for the premiership, while the Democratic Gathering bloc – headed by Walid Jumblatt – has not yet officially announced whether it will side with the opposition to name former Prime Minister Omar Karami, or if it will back Hariri for the premiership.
-NOW Lebanon



Saad Hariri
January 20, 2011
Prime Minister Saad Hariri made a speech on January 20, 2011, a week after Lebanon’s national government collapsed:
“Brothers and sisters, friends, 6 years ago, I entered the Lebanese political life. This would not have happened without the terrorist crime that killed former PM Rafik Hariri and his companions. I made the decision with my family to enter [politics] to pursue Rafik Hariri’s path, and to uncover the truth behind the assassinations of Lebanese political figures. Preserving Rafik Hariri’s political heritage and [committing to the truth] is a way to achieve justice in Lebanon. I vow that I will not give up on this. Today, we’re at a crossroads.
I have announced that the dignity of my family and people is more precious [than anything], and based on how I have been raised, it will drive me to be more committed. One drop of the blood of Lebanese citizens is more precious than [anything else]. We have to determine where we should move and [what path] to follow in Lebanon.
We, the leaders of Lebanon, hold the destiny of Lebanon. It is not true that foreign plans drive us to the abyss. If Lebanon’s leaders decide to back the country away from the abyss, the country will remain. Taking to the streets is [not a nationalistic] rhetoric. We decided not to take to the streets… because we [are committed] to the constitution.
I made efforts in the past month, and God knows, I tried to prevent strife in the country. I made one initiative after another and one sacrifice after another. I saw a way to help end the impasse in [the efforts of] Saudi Arabia and Syria.
Unfortunately [Saudi-Syrian] efforts failed. A diplomatic movement was re-launched based on the Saudi-Syrian talks, which [led into the visits of Turkish and Qatari officials on Tuesday].
I [feel the need] to address all the Lebanese to say that we have reached the level of martyrdom. I decided to commit to a compromise in order to preserve coexistence. But once again, [the March 8 coalition] informed Qatari and Turkish officials that [their party is against] renaming Saad Hariri for premiership. [They] want to [kick] Saad Hariri out of politics.
If [March 8 wants] to kick Hariri out of the premiership, then fine.
We will take part in the consultations for premiership nominations that will be held by President [Michel Sleiman] next Monday, and we will commit to my candidacy as prime minister. The most important thing is that [parties] adhere to the constitution.
I have lived 39 years of my life in a country that swings between unity and division, war and peace, reassurance and worry. Today, I look for salvation from this distress. I have faced confrontation due to my position in politics, which is similar to the circumstances faced by my father. We belong to a national school, called ‘The Rafik Hariri School,’ which chooses to follow the path of truth and justice. They managed to [kill Rafik Hariri], but they were not able to kill coexistence.
Strife is not the price of achieving justice and truth [behind the Rafik Hariri murder]. We did not make all these sacrifices and support economic development in order to submit to strife. Our political system does not and will not mean anything if we deliver a future of turmoil to our children. The priorities of the people will remain our primary concern. Oppression will not prevent me from pursuing the path. Long live Lebanon [and its people].”



Hariri challenges Nasrallah, announces bid to lead new government
DEBKAfile Special Report January 20, 2011, Lebanon swerved closer to a factional conflagration Thursday night, Jan. 20, after Saad Hariri, whose coalition Hizballah toppled eight days ago, announced he would form a new government in defiance of the opposition. Hassan Nasrallah's supporters warned he was leading Lebanon to disaster.
debkafile's sources note that by standing his ground against Hizballah's efforts to oust him from Lebanese politics, Hariri may be able to abort Nasrallah's plan for an alternative Lebanese government that would disqualify the UN tribunal and its indictment of senior Hizballah officials for complicity in the six-year old assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
Nasrallah has sworn never to surrender his loyalists to the Netherlands-based court. Therefore, by thwarting him, Hariri has raised the Lebanese crisis to a new and dangerous pitch. Nasrallah must now decide whether to rise to the challenge and go through with the steps for seizing control of the capital which his troops practiced this week, or give up and accept defeat.
Thursday afternoon, Lebanese forces showed themselves willing for the first time to stand up to Hizballah's superior strength and ward off its takeover of the capital. Extra security was laid on for Hariri, guards were reinforced at government institutions and traffic hubs secured. Police units were seen unloading concrete blocks at the main city intersections after which military units moved in to man them.
A Lebanese military official commented that these measures were prompted by "concerns over movements on the ground by some parties."
No one doubted he was referring to Hizballah and its repeated exercises this week to practice the rapid seizure of Beirut.
Our sources report that Hariri and Nasrallah camps now face each other for a straight duel after the latest mediation effort was abandoned. Thursday morning, the Turkish and Qatari foreign ministers departed Beirut announcing they were "halting their mediation" in the Lebanese crisis.

How justice for Rafiq Hariri's killers could help the Middle East
Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/20/AR2011012005513.html
Thursday, January 20, 2011; 8:24 PM
LIKE OTHER international courts, the U.N. Special Tribunal for Lebanon has been at best a slow and weak instrument of justice - but it may be the strongest card held by the United States and its allies in a crucial power struggle with Syria and Iran. On Monday, the tribunal's prosecutor delivered a sealed indictment against suspects in the February 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. The indictment is widely believed to name senior officials of the Hezbollah movement, the Shiite political party and the heavily armed militia. Hezbollah withdrew from the Lebanese government last week, causing its collapse; it has the military strength to seize control of Beirut at any time. But if it is not able to stop the tribunal, both it and Iran could suffer a significant political setback.
Hariri, a Sunni billionaire who led the reconstruction of Lebanon after its civil war, was widely revered in the country and respected around the region. Convincing evidence that the massive car bomb that killed him and 22 others was planted with the help of Hezbollah could badly damage a group that claims its militancy and massive arsenal is directed entirely at Israel. That evidence could be laid out at a trial in the Netherlands this year or next. That is why Hezbollah has been seeking for months to force the government headed by the slain man's son, Saad Hariri, to renounce the tribunal, which is a hybrid that includes Lebanese judges and is partly funded by Lebanon.
Saad Hariri so far has refused, and negotiations between the Saudi and Syrian governments to broker a compromise have failed. That has destabilized Lebanon's delicate balance between pro-Western factions and those favoring Iran and Syria and prompted talk of a new civil war. Hezbollah, which lost Lebanon's past two elections, often gets it way through the threat of force, and it may be able to intimidate the Lebanese parliament into replacing Mr. Hariri with a prime minister who will do its bidding or force Mr. Hariri to back down.
The Obama administration has rightly encouraged Mr. Hariri to stand his ground. President Obama met with the prime minister last week, and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has been arguing that Lebanon need not choose between stability and justice. Neither Mr. Hariri nor the United States has the capacity to disarm Hezbollah or to end the threat it poses to Lebanon, Israel and the broader Middle East. By insisting that the tribunal proceed, however, the United States and its allies have the opportunity to expose the movement's homicidal terrorism, directed at fellow Arabs and Muslims, and its dependence on the Syrian and Iranian dictatorships. That's an outcome worth taking risks for