LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِJanuary 21/2010

Bible Of The Day
The Good News According to Matthew 10/5-15: "Jesus sent these twelve out, and commanded them, saying, “Don’t go among the Gentiles, and don’t enter into any city of the Samaritans. 10:6 Rather, go to the lost sheep of the house of Israel. 10:7 As you go, preach, saying, ‘The Kingdom of Heaven is at hand!’ 10:8 Heal the sick, cleanse the lepers*, and cast out demons. Freely you received, so freely give. 10:9 Don’t take any gold, nor silver, nor brass in your money belts. 10:10 Take no bag for your journey, neither two coats, nor shoes, nor staff: for the laborer is worthy of his food. 10:11 Into whatever city or village you enter, find out who in it is worthy; and stay there until you go on. 10:12 As you enter into the household, greet it. 10:13 If the household is worthy, let your peace come on it, but if it isn’t worthy, let your peace return to you. 10:14 Whoever doesn’t receive you, nor hear your words, as you go out of that house or that city, shake off the dust from your feet. 10:15 Most certainly I tell you, it will be more tolerable for the land of Sodom and Gomorrah in the day of judgment than for that city".

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Hizballah's eleventh-hour pullback from siege of UN sites and troops/DEBKAfile/January 20/11
Lebanon: caught between flattery and dishonesty/By Tariq Alhomayed
/January 20/11

Is Hezbollah's eye mainly on Syria?/By Michael Young/January 20/11
Iran’s road rules/By: Tony Badran/January 20/11
From  An-Nahar interview with Lebanon's House Speaker, Nabih Berri/January 20/11
Last Assyrians Ponder Leaving a Hometown in Iraq/By John Leland and Duraid Adnan/January 20/11
STL Registrar to Naharnet: Street Activity, Leaks Do Not Affect Tribunal Work. Lebanon Bound to Cooperate/January 20/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 20/11
Saad Hariri delivers speech after last week’s government collapse/Now Lebanon

Jumblat to Support Karami for Premiership: Naming Hariri Will Lead to Catastrophic Results/Naharnet
Abul Gheit: Whoever Wants to Mess with Lebanon Stability Will Have to Face Local, Arab Foes/Naharnet
Beirut hotel management denies raid reports, calls for accuracy /Now Lebanon
Lebanese troops tighten security around government buildings as political crisis deepens/Canadian Press
Turkey, Qatar FMs Leave Beirut: Mediation to Halt Until We Consult with Our Leaderships/Naharnet
Faisal to Hariri: Saudi Arabia Supports Any Effort Aimed at Providing Stability in Lebanon/Naharnet
March 14 blasts Hizbullah's muscle-flexing/Daily Star
Aoun Challenges al-Faisal and Says Hariri Can't be Imposed on March 8/Naharnet
Airtight Security Dragnet Around Hariri's Office as Crisis Deepens/Naharnet
Williams after Meeting Aoun: Crisis should be Resolved Peacefully /Naharnet
Davutoglu: Situation Takes More Positive Turn, Our Work is Built On S-S Efforts/Naharnet
Arab League Official: Lebanon Sits on Volcano that Could Erupt Any Moment/Naharnet
Jumblat 'Won't Give up to Pessimism': Al-Faisal's Stance is 'Inaccurate'/Naharnet
Report: Suleiman in Visit Damascus Soon/Naharnet
Ban, Sultan of Oman Discuss Lebanon Crisis, Mideast Conflicts /Naharnet
Al-Liwaa: Hariri satisfied that Saudi Arabia will not abandon Lebanon/Now Lebanon
The Lebanese failed to respond to Saudi-Syrian efforts, says Lebanese ambassador/Now Lebanon
Fatfat: Saudi Arabia has rung the warning bell/Naharnet
Davutoglu sees improvement in Lebanese situation/Naharnet

Saad Hariri delivers speech after last week’s government collapse
January 20, 2011 /Now Lebanon
- Brothers and sisters, friends, 6 years ago, I entered the Lebanese political life.
- This would not have happened if there was no terrorist crime that killed former PM Rafik Hariri and his companions.
- I made the decision with my family to enter [politics] to pursue Rafik Hariri’s path, and to uncover the truth behind the assassinations of Lebanese political figures.
- Preserving Rafik Hariri’s political heritage and [committing to the truth] is a way to achieve justice in Lebanon. I vow I will not give up on this.
- Today, we’re at a crossroads.
- I have announced that the dignity of my family and people is more precious [than anything], and based on how I have been raised, it will drive me to be more committed.
- One drop of blood of Lebanese citizens is more precious than [anything else].
- We have to determine were we should move and [what path] to follow in Lebanon.
- We, the leaders of Lebanon, hold the destiny of Lebanon.
- It is not true that foreign plans drive us to the abyss.
- If Lebanon’s leaders decide to take the country away from the abyss, the country will remain.
- Taking to the streets is [not a nationalistic] rhetoric.
- We decided not to take to the streets…. because we [are committed] to the constitution.
- I made efforts in the past month, and God knows, I tried to prevent strife in the country.
- I made one initiative after another and one sacrifice after another.
- I saw in Saudi Arabia and Syria a way to help end the impasse.
- Unfortunately [Saudi-Syrian] efforts failed.
- A diplomatic movement was re-launched based on the Saudi-Syrian talks, which [was translated by the visits of Turkish and Qatari officials on Tuesday].
- I am entitled to address all the Lebanese to say that we have reached the level of martyrdom. I decided to commit to a compromise in order to preserve coexistence. But once again, [March 8] re-informs Qatari and Turkish officials that [they are against] renaming Saad Hariri for premiership.
- [They] want to [kick] Saad Hariri out of the political life.
- If it is asked to kick Hariri out of the premiership, then fine.
- We will take part in the consultations for premiership nominations that will be held by President [Michel Sleiman] next Monday, and we will commit to my candidacy as prime minister.
- The most important thing is that [parties] should adhere to the constitution.
- I have lived 39 years of my life in a country that swings between unity and division, war and peace, reassurance and worry.
- Today, I look for salvation from this distress.
- I have faced confrontation due to my position in politics, similar circumstances to those faced by my father.
- We belong to a national school, called ‘The Rafik Hariri School,’ which chose to follow the path of truth and justice.
- They managed to [kill Rafik Hariri], but they were not able to kill coexistence.
- Strife is not the price of achieving justice and truth [behind the Rafik Hariri murder].
- We did not make all these sacrifices and support economic development in order to submit to strife.
- Our political system does not and will not mean anything if we deliver a future of turmoil to our children.
- The priorities of the people will remain our primary concern.
- Oppression will not prevent me from pursuing the path.
- Long live Lebanon [and its people].

Jumblat to Support Karami for Premiership: Naming Hariri Will Lead to Catastrophic Results

Naharnet/Naharnet has learned that Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat has informed concerned officials in the Mustqbal movement that he is being subject to great pressures against naming Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri as the premier of a new government, knowing that he had previously informed Hariri that he would be naming him. Jumblat did not elaborate on the reasons for his new position. However, he did inform his circles that the policy of insisting on Hariri as the new prime minister will lead to "catastrophic consequences" on the security field, on him personally, PSP members, and the Druze in the Shouf, Alley, Hasbaya, and the western Bekaa.
Jumblat added that matters "have become greater than him and his ability to maintain the middle ground in a harsh battle in which Hariri's regional and international backers only resort to statements, while his opponents turn to all manners of military and popular pressure." The MP revealed that he has now been forced to name former PM Omar Karami as the new prime minister and that he will place the PSP MPs before their responsibilities, adding that he has not given them a choice to name a prime minister and everyone should be held accountable for their actions should they not take his advice. Beirut, 20 Jan 11, 16:08

Abul Gheit: Whoever Wants to Mess with Lebanon Stability Will Have to Face Local, Arab Foes
Naharnet/Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit has stressed that Lebanon will not be able to "turn the page on political assassinations forever without achieving justice," noting that stability in Lebanon was "everyone's essential demand.""Any party that wants to mess with it (stability) will have to confront several foes -- Lebanese, Arabs and others," Abul Gheit said an interview with Kuwaiti daily Al-Rai to be published Friday. "Egypt is in contact with the Lebanese parties, as well as with Arab and international parties, and we're using these contacts to stress the elements of the Egyptian stance and help achieve the difficult equation: preserving stability in Lebanon together with adhering to achieving justice," he added. Asked about what caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri was required to do during this period, Abul Gheit said: "We believe that Sheikh Saad Hariri has taken constructive and positive stances for the sake of his country throughout the past months, and it will be unfair that he be asked to endorse stances that go beyond what he has already voiced."
"Egypt totally sympathizes with Saad Hariri's position and appreciates his stances, and we believe that his vision for Lebanon can bring together the biggest number of his country's parties, and it is a vision that is supported by Egypt," the Egyptian minister stressed.
Beirut, 20 Jan 11, 18:57/Abdullah Responding to Mneimneh: You Never Extended Your Hand to the Other Camp
Naharnet/Caretaker Minister of Youth and Sports Ali Abdullah criticized on Thursday Caretaker Education Minister Hasan Mneimneh's recent statements, saying that House Speaker Nabih Berri's election to his position "was not a gift from the Mustaqbal movement or the March 14 forces as he heads a large parliamentary bloc." "We will reciprocate your failure to nominate an individual as head of parliament by not nominating anyone against Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri to head a new Cabinet," he added. The March 14 camp never extended its hand to the other camp, he stressed. Beirut, 20 Jan 11, 18:28

Beirut hotel management denies raid reports, calls for accuracy
January 20, 2011 /Following reports of raids, the Habtoor Hotel management in Beirut issued a statement calling for accuracy in news reporting, adding that the hotel is hosting a four-day conference for an international medical company. The statement said that the conference was supposed to be held in Dubai, but that it convened in Beirut instead. It also said that around 300 people of Egyptian nationality are taking part in the conference. New TV reported on Thursday that a Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) unit raided the Habtoor Hotel in Beirut’s Sin al-Fil neighborhood on Wednesday night, suspecting the presence of “security groups from two Arab countries.” The LAF, however, denied the reports.
Tensions are high in Lebanon after reports said that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) might indict Hezbollah members in former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s 2005 assassination. Lebanon’s government collapsed on January 12 after Hezbollah and its allies withdrew their ministers. Hezbollah has for months demanded that Lebanon reject the STL whose prosecutor’s indictment on the Rafik Hariri murder was submitted Monday.-NOW Lebanon

Hizballah's eleventh-hour pullback from siege of UN sites and troops

http://www.debka.com/article/20563/
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 19, 2011,With minutes to spare, Wednesday night, Jan. 19, Hizballah called off its plan to hold to siege UN buildings in Beirut and their staff of 1,000, as a show of strength in the face of the threatened UN Hariri tribunal's indictment of its high officials for the Hariri assassination six years ago. debkafile's military sources report.
The sites targeted were the offices of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia which Hizballah militiamen were ordered to seal against ingress and egress, while its armed units were to encircle and pin down UNIFIL patrols in South Lebanon and cut off isolated UN outposts and lookout posts.
Hizballah also planned to besiege the offices of the UN's Special Lebanon Emissary Michael Williams, UNWRA which deals with Palestinian refugees and various UNIFIL contact offices in Beirut.
This desperate action was planned to blackmail UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon into discussing the reassessment of the STL's indictment of Hizballah's security and intelligence chiefs for the murder of the former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
According to our sources, at 1800 hours Lebanese time, as Hizballah forces were about to set out on their missions, they received an order from their leader, Hassan Nasrallah to hold their horses for now. He offered no explanation for the postponement but, according to some sources, he was deterred by being informed of consequences of this act. Ban would have asked the Lebanese government to send troops to relieve the Hizballah siege on UN institutions, failing which he would have called on the UN Security Council to send armed units to Beirut to rescue the beleaguered UN staffers.
This step might well have ended in US, French and German marines lifting of the warships opposite Lebanese shores and landing in Beirut.
A day earlier, on Tuesday, militiamen of the Shiite Hizballah and Amal movements, unarmed and clad in black uniforms, took up positions in seven quarters of the capital, to prove the Shiites capable of capturing Beirut. They were withdrawn that night after making the point.
That was the Lebanese Shiites' concerted response to the gauntlet thrown down Monday by the Special Lebanon Court probing the 2005 Hariri murder, as reported earlier by debkafile.
The Special Lebanon Court registrar Herman von Hebel announced Tuesday, Jan. 18 that if things go well, "we may see the start of the trial toward September/October … with or without an accused." A day earlier, the STL prosecutor Daniel Bellemare submitted his draft indictment to the pre-trial judge Daniel Fransen in The Hague, thereby establishing three facts in the case of the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.
1. An approximate date has been set for the trial to begin, irrespective of the extreme upsets in Lebanon over the case.
2. The prosecution file includes names of accused individuals, members of Hizballah, who will be summoned to appear before the UN court. Bellemare stated in a video clip Tuesday that the accused he cited are presumed innocent even after they are confirmed by the judge – until the prosecution proves their guilt beyond reasonable doubt in court.
3. Any of the accused defying the court summons will be tried in absentia as debkafile reportedly exclusively first in its weekly edition on Dec. 24, 2010 and again in daily debkafile on Jan. 13.
(Click here for second report.)
http://www.debka.com/article/20540/
The registrar also stated Tuesday: "The pretrial judge is very keen to move the process forward as fast as possible."
This means that Fransen will make an effort to hand down his decision on the indictments within 6-10 weeks, much earlier than the several months originally reported, according to debkafile's sources. The court realizes that the longer the court process, the deeper Lebanon will sink into crisis.
Von Hebel also referred to the joint effort Syrian president Bashar Assad, Turkish premier Recep Erdogan and the Qatari emir Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa al-Thani were making in Beirut for a compromise that would free the Lebanese government of its commitment to honor the international tribunal's warrants and contribute to its funding. The registrar said: "We know for sure it is not easy to get accused persons arrested. The problem with international tribunals is that they do not have a police force. We are dependent on the cooperation of states."
He then remarked: "The tribunal's budget is $65.7 million for 2011 should not be affected by the collapse of the Lebanese government which is obliged to pay 49 percent. The obligation is for the state, not a government."
That comment is the key to the dispute – both over the tribunal's funding and its legitimacy which Hizballah challenges by refusing to hand over its officials for trial.
Von Hebel, the tribunal's registrar. made it clear that the Lebanese state, not its government, will be held accountable for upholding the UN court's decrees. In other words, the effort engineered from Tehran and Damascus to replace the Hariri government with an alternative will not get Hizballah off the hook. Indeed any administration in Beirut that defies the court lays Lebanon open to a complaint to the UN Security Council by the UN tribunal's judges and a demand for sanctions pending compliance.


Lebanese troops tighten security around government buildings as political crisis deepens

By Zeina Karam (CP)/BEIRUT — Lebanese troops tightened security around the prime minister's office and other government buildings Thursday as a political crisis deepened over a U.N.-backed tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of a former prime minister.A senior security official confirmed to The Associated Press that the security measures in and around Beirut stem from "concerns of movements on the ground by some parties." The official spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations.
Special police forces were seen hauling cement barriers around the government house in Beirut and putting up reinforcements around government buildings and banks. Tanks deployed in many areas of the city. The new measures follow the departure from Beirut of Qatari and Turkish mediators after two days of talks that apparently failed to resolve the differences between Lebanon's main rival factions and bring them back together in a coalition government.
The crisis stems from the investigation into who killed former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri — and 22 others — in a massive truck bombing along Beirut's waterfront.
The U.N. court, which is widely expected to accuse the Shiite Hezbollah, filed a sealed draft indictment Monday, touching off a process many fear could ignite new bloodshed nearly six years after the assassination. Hezbollah denies any role in Hariri's killing and forced the collapse of the government last week when Prime Minister Saad Hariri — the son of the slain leader — refused to renounce the tribunal and pull Lebanon's funding for the court. The militant group says the tribunal is a conspiracy by Israel and the United States. There are concerns that supporters of the group may take to the streets, setting the stage for sectarian fighting similar to Shiite-Sunni street clashes that killed 81 people in 2008. Hariri was Lebanon's most prominent Sunni leader. The collapse of the Western-backed government was a blow to the United States and its Arab allies, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Syria and Saudi Arabia — who back rival camps in Lebanon — had for months been trying to find a settlement to the crisis. When those efforts failed, ministers of Hezbollah and their allies pulled out of the unity Cabinet, toppling the government. On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia said it was abandoning efforts to mediate, dealing a setback to American diplomacy in the region and raising concerns in Lebanon the crisis was headed for a confrontation. Qatar and Turkey tried to pick up on the Saudi and Syrian initiative. But two days of meetings by their foreign ministers with rival Lebanese politicians appeared to have failed to produce a deal. A statement issued by the two before they left Beirut Thursday said they would consult with their leadership.
The statement, published in the state-run National News Agency, said they had formulated in Beirut a paper that takes into consideration "the political and legal requirements to solve the current crisis in Lebanon." "But because of some reservations, they decided to stop their efforts in Lebanon at this time and leave Beirut to consult with their leadership," the statement added. The U.N.'s special co-ordinator for Lebanon, Michael Williams, called for dialogue after a meeting with Christian leader Michel Aoun, a strong Hezbollah ally.
"I conveyed to Gen. Aoun my belief that the current crisis should be resolved in a peaceful and lawful manner," he said. In a sign of the escalating crisis, Aoun said the opposition would not accept that Hariri, who is staying on as a caretaker prime minister, return to the premiership. Copyright © 2011 The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

The Lebanese failed to respond to Saudi-Syrian efforts, says Lebanese ambassador

January 20, 2011 /Saudi Arabia’s statement that it is abandoning mediation efforts in Lebanon is the result of “Riyadh and Damascus’s understanding that their current initiative was not met with a Lebanese response,” Lebanese Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Marwan Zein said in an interview published Thursday. This proves that “the solution must be Lebanese – and then Saudi-Syrian support will follow to back Lebanese efforts,” he told the Saudi newspaper Al-Watan. On Wednesday Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal’s said that Saudi Arabia is abandoning its efforts to mediate the current Lebanese political crisis, while Turkish and Qatari envoys said later Wednesday that their talks to end Lebanon’s political impasse have stopped “due to certain reservations.” Lebanon's unity government collapsed on January 12 after Hezbollah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from cabinet and one minister in the president’s bloc resigned. Hezbollah has for months demanded that Lebanon reject the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, whose prosecutor’s indictment on former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s 2005 assassination was submitted Monday. Prime Minister Saad Hariri is currently heading a caretaker government pending the outcome of consultations that have been postponed to January 24 and 25.-NOW Lebanon

Al-Liwaa: Hariri satisfied that Saudi Arabia will not abandon Lebanon

January 20, 2011 /Prime Minister Saad Hariri is satisfied that Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal’s latest statements “do not mean that Saudi Arabia has abandoned its commitments toward Lebanon,” Al-Liwaa newspaper reported on Thursday. The PM is aware that Faisal’s Wednesday statement that Saudi Arabia is abandoning its mediation in Lebanon came after a dispute with Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Moqdad at the Arab Foreign Ministers summit in Sharm al-Sheikh, the paper quoted an anonymous visitor to Hariri as saying.
The daily also quoted an anonymous diplomatic source who said that at the Arab foreign ministers meeting on the summit’s sidelines, Faisal told Moqdad in a heated discussion that the Syrian-Saudi understandings on Lebanon were known only to the two countries’ leaders, not their foreign ministers. Faisal also told the Syrian FM that Saudi Arabia has “withdrawn its hand from these agreements” and hinted that this was due to the lack of a Syrian response, the source said. Faisal said in an interview with Al-Arabiya television on Wednesday that his country has abandoned mediation efforts in Lebanon, where he described the situation as "dangerous.” Lebanon's unity government collapsed on January 12 after Hezbollah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from cabinet and one minister in the president’s bloc resigned. Hezbollah has for months demanded that Lebanon reject the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, whose prosecutor’s indictment on former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s 2005 assassination was submitted Monday. PM Saad Hariri is currently heading a caretaker government pending the outcome of consultations that have been postponed to January 24 and 25.-NOW Lebanon

Fatfat: Saudi Arabia has rung the warning bell

January 20, 2011 /Saudi Arabia has “rung the warning bell” in order that “all sides bear their responsibilities,” Future bloc MP Ahmad Fatfat said in an interview published on Thursday.
“Lebanon now faces an extremely dangerous situation […] the Saudi statement [that the kingdom is abandoning mediation efforts in Lebanon] is clear and rings the warning bell ahead of time,” Fatfat told As-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper. “The Saudi-Syrian initiative [to resolve the Lebanese political crisis] was based on mutual trust between the two of them and required that each side implement its commitments. However, it became clear to [Saudi Arabia] that there is a side that does not want to abide by its commitments.”“Saudi Arabia will not abandon Lebanon to its fate.” Lebanon's unity government collapsed on January 12 after Hezbollah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from cabinet and one minister in the president’s bloc resigned. Hezbollah has for months demanded that Lebanon reject the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, whose prosecutor’s indictment on former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s 2005 assassination was submitted Monday. Prime Minister Saad Hariri is currently heading a caretaker government pending the outcome of consultations that have been postponed to January 24 and 25. On Wednesday Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal’s said that Saudi Arabia is abandoning its efforts to mediate the crisis, while Turkish and Qatari envoys said later Wednesday that their talks to end Lebanon’s political impasse have stopped “due to certain reservations.”-NOW Lebanon

Davutoglu sees improvement in Lebanese situation

January 20, 2011 /“The situation [in Lebanon] has changed positively after the Damascus summit,” Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said in an interview published on Thursday.
“All parties are joining efforts to reach a compromise,” Davutoglu told Al-Akhbar newspaper. “The Turkish-Qatari talks are continuing the Saudi-Syrian initiative to preserve long-term stability in Lebanon.” Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jaber al-Thani and Davutoglu arrived in Beirut on Tuesday and met separately with President Michel Sleiman, Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Speaker Nabih Berri and Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah to discuss the current crisis. Lebanon's unity government collapsed on January 12 after Hezbollah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from cabinet and one minister in the president’s bloc resigned. Hezbollah has for months demanded that Lebanon reject the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, whose prosecutor’s indictment on former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s 2005 assassination was submitted Monday. PM Saad Hariri is currently heading a caretaker government pending the outcome of consultations that have been postponed to January 24 and 25.-NOW Lebanon

Faisal to Hariri: Saudi Arabia Supports Any Effort Aimed at Providing Stability in Lebanon
Naharnet/Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal stressed on Wednesday the Kingdom's support to "any effort aimed at providing stability in Lebanon."
He made his statement after a telephone call with Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri over the current developments in Lebanon. Hariri also informed the Saudi official of the ongoing attempts to tackle the situation in Lebanon, which are based on Saudi King Abdullah's efforts and the Saudi-Syrian initiative. Beirut, 19 Jan 11, 18:12

Arab League Official: Lebanon Sits on Volcano that Could Erupt Any Moment

Naharnet/A senior aide to Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa said Thursday that Lebanon was sitting on a volcano that could erupt any moment. In remarks to Voice of Lebanon, the voice of dignity and freedom, radio station, Hisham Youssef said there is an "honest Arab willingness to solve the Lebanese crisis." But said "Lebanon is sitting on a volcano that could erupt any moment if Lebanese parties remain on their hardline stances." Youssef said the Arab efforts to solve the crisis will continue even if they face obstacles. "Lebanese forces are the only ones that have the key to a solution."Moussa said during the Arab economic summit in Sharm el-Sheikh on Wednesday that "the situation in Lebanon was still fragile." "Lebanese officials should be cautious," he told the conferees, stressing that "the role of the president was the key" in solving the crisis.Beirut, 20 Jan 11, 09:39

Turkey, Qatar FMs Leave Beirut: Mediation to Halt Until We Consult with Our Leaderships

Naharnet/The foreign ministers of Turkey and Qatar left Beirut early Thursday, announcing they were halting their mediation effort "at the moment" until they consult with their leaderships.
A terse statement issued by Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Qatar's FM and Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani said their work was built on the Saudi-Syrian efforts. "On the basis of the tripartite meeting in Damascus ... where an agreement was reached to dispatch the foreign ministers of Qatar and Turkey to Beirut to continue efforts based on the Saudi-Syrian initiative, a draft paper had been drawn up taking into account the political and legal requirements in solving the current crisis in Lebanon on the basis of the Saudi-Syrian paper," said the statement issued before their departure. "But due to some reservations, we have decided to stop our efforts at this moment and leave Beirut to consult with our leaderships," Davutoglu and Sheikh Hamad said. Beirut, 20 Jan 11, 07:21

Aoun Challenges al-Faisal and Says Hariri Can't be Imposed on March 8

Naharnet/Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun said Thursday that Caretaker PM Saad Hariri cannot be imposed on the March 8 forces and should not return to power because "he has embezzled billions." "We need a clean cabinet that respects moral laws and legal texts," Aoun said during a press conference he held in Rabiyeh. "Hariri shouldn't return to power not because we are mad at him or from Sunnis …. Such a person can't be imposed on us," he said. He stressed that Lebanon can't be divided whether Israel and the U.S. like it or not. "Our crime is that we want a new and clean country." Turning to Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, Aoun said: "Those who have an army that can impose division, let them send it."
On Wednesday, Faisal expressed fears of division in the multi-confessional nation. Aoun unveiled that he asked U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams during a meeting they held before the press conference why the international community was seeking to bring back to power a man who has allegedly embezzled billions and cooperated with false witnesses.
"He remained silent," Aoun said about Williams. The FPM leader stressed that he won't accept a solution unless violators are brought to justice. Beirut, 20 Jan 11, 12:41

Airtight Security Dragnet Around Hariri's Office as Crisis Deepens

Naharnet/Lebanese troops tightened security around Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri's office and other government buildings Thursday as a political crisis deepened over the international tribunal. A senior security official confirmed to The Associated Press that the security measures in and around Beirut stem from "concerns of movements on the ground by some parties."  Special police forces were seen hauling cement barriers around the Grand Serail in Beirut and putting up reinforcements around government buildings and banks. Tanks deployed in many areas of the city. The new measures follow the departure from Beirut of Qatari and Turkish mediators after two days of talks that apparently failed to resolve the differences between Lebanon's main rival factions and bring them back together in a coalition government.(AP-Naharnet) Beirut, 20 Jan 11, 13:34

Williams after Meeting Aoun: Crisis should be Resolved Peacefully

Naharnet/U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams hoped Thursday that the Lebanese crisis would be resolved peacefully and urged Lebanese officials to engage in dialogue to solve the deadlock. "The current crisis should be resolved in a peaceful and lawful manner," Williams said following talks with Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun in Rabiyeh.
He hoped the government would be formed "in a manner that responds to the aspirations and needs of the Lebanese people." Lebanese leaders should strengthen Lebanon's "tradition and culture of moderation, tolerance and diversity." "Despite the divisions, I underlined in my meeting with Gen. Aoun that dialogue amongst the Lebanese leaders is the only possible means for helping the country out of its present crisis. "The efforts of Lebanon's regional and international friends are encouraging but they also need to be coupled with internal Lebanese efforts to safeguard the country's stability and to reach a solution," Williams said. "The Lebanese people have the right to stability and to justice," he added. Beirut, 20 Jan 11, 11:42

Jumblat 'Won't Give up to Pessimism': Al-Faisal's Stance is 'Inaccurate'

Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat criticized Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal's stance on Lebanon as "inaccurate" and contradictory to Riyadh's historic path in dealing with the country. Damascus and Riyadh played a major role in holding the Riyadh and Cairo summits to solve the Lebanese conflict in 1976, he told As Safir newspaper. Saudi Arabia also helped Syria to topple the May 17, 1983 agreement, Jumblat said. An in 1989, Damascus and Riyadh contributed to the success of the Taef Accord after the "Liberation War," the Druze leader added. Al-Faisal said Wednesday that Riyadh has abandoned mediation efforts in Lebanon, where he described the situation as "dangerous."Jumblat vowed "not to give up to pessimism," saying he would still bet on the success of the Syrian-Saudi initiative that includes fundamental and strategic articles that consolidate Lebanon against the indictment that was released by the international tribunal. In a statement released Wednesday, Jumblat doubted the credibility of the tribunal and said Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare's decision to launch a probe into the latest unauthorized broadcasts was an underestimation of the Lebanese. "We wonder whether the tribunal is credible after the latest broadcasts" on al-Jadid TV of interviews conducted by international investigators with Caretaker PM Saad Hariri, said Jumblat. When asked by As Safir about the issue, the PSP chief said: "How could we trust an international tribunal whose credibility collapses every second and its investigators sell information?" Beirut, 20 Jan 11, 08:35

Report: Suleiman in Visit Damascus Soon
President Michel Suleiman could visit

Naharnet/Damascus soon, media reports said, although An Nahar daily quoted involved sources as saying that the head of state has scheduled meetings on Thursday. The sources said, however, that the meetings could be cancelled if the need arises. They "did not rule out any possibility" particularly amid reports that Qatar's emir will visit Damascus soon to discuss the Lebanese crisis with the Syrian leadership.  Turkey and Qatar have been involved in efforts to mediate the latest political crisis in Lebanon. Beirut, 20 Jan 11, 09:02

Last Assyrians Ponder Leaving a Hometown in Iraq
By John Leland and Duraid Adnan
New York Times
 1-20-2011 5:8:16
HABBANIYA CECE, Iraq -- The last Christian man in town goes to church each morning to clean the building and to remember the past. Romel Hawal, 48, was born in this town in Anbar Province back when most of the population was Christian. Now, he said, his 11-year-old son knows no other Christians and has no memory of attending a church service.
"When my son swears, it is on the Koran, not the Bible," Mr. Hawal lamented.
His wife wants to leave town or leave the country, joining what is becoming an exodus of Christians from Iraq and throughout the Middle East. But Mr. Hawal said he felt an obligation to stay. And he found support from an unlikely source.
"What gives me courage," he said, "is that my Muslim brothers say, 'Don't leave.' "
Here in Habbaniya Cece, residents talk about their town as an oasis of ethnic and religious harmony, where Christians and Muslims, Arabs and Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites all lived together for decades without friction. On one short stretch of rutted road near Mr. Hawal's church, Mary Queen of Peace, are an Assyrian church, a Sunni mosque, a Shiite mosque and another, older, Sunni mosque.
"This is the best place you will find in Iraq, because we have Christians and Muslims together," said the mayor, Sabah Fawzi, a Muslim, who stopped by the church to look in on Mr. Hawal. "When my wife and daughters want something, sometimes they come to the church to ask God for it."
But even on this street the buildings tell a more complicated story. The Assyrian church, St. George the Martyr, lies empty and hollowed out after an explosion in 2005. The Shiite mosque, Husseiniya Habbaniya, is a brand-new building but has no imam, or cleric, because of attacks against Shiites in the region, including a 2006 bombing that damaged the previous building.
These and other attacks shattered the mutual interdependence that had flourished for much of the past century, residents say. As Anbar Province became a stronghold for Al Qaeda in Iraq and other Sunni extremist groups, Christians and Shiites, feeling singled out, fled the area, until this town of 10,150 had only one Christian family, down from about 70 families before the American-led invasion of 2003. There were not enough Shiites to fill the big new mosque.
Khadem Owaid, the caretaker of the Shiite mosque, said people from the town had no part in the sectarian violence that swept through the province after 2003. "The occupation destroyed everything," Mr. Owaid said. "It was strangers who came and made trouble, trying to plant something between us. But we're living together now, there's no problem."
At Mary Queen of Peace, Mr. Hawal is now caretaker not just to an old church but to a history. For most of the last century Habbaniya was an important hub for Assyrian Christians from around Iraq, with an educated elite and a unique dialect. Assyrian regiments fought alongside the British against Arab nationalists and the Axis powers, and the name Habbaniya Cece comes from the Habbaniya civil cantonment established by the British air force after World War I.
From their British counterparts, Assyrians here brought soccer to Iraq, said Archdeacon Emanuel Youkhana of the Assyrian Church of the East in Beirut, who was born in Habbaniya.
The Christian population began to drop in the 1970s and 1980s for economic reasons, the archdeacon and current residents said.
Mr. Hawal, who is Assyrian, switched to Mary Queen of Peace, which is Roman Catholic, after his brother became the caretaker, and remained after his brother moved to Baghdad and then to the Kurdistan region in northern Iraq. About half of Iraq's Christians have left the country since the invasion.
Mr. Hawal remembered Christmas celebrations in the garden at Mary Queen of Peace, staying up all night with his Muslim neighbors, both Arabs and Kurds.
"This is history for us," he said. "I can still smell my friends here and my family here. Many friends now say I should leave, that they have work for me where they are, but I can't leave the church." Mr. Fawzi, the mayor, mourns the loss of his former neighbors. "I would give my life for the life that used to be here to come back."
The church building now is a monument to their absence, with its heavy wooden pews moved to the edges of a barren concrete floor. It has no heat or electricity. Next to it is a large field of garbage. "When I come here I feel pain," Mr. Hawal said. "I don't think it will ever be back again like it was, when we had a beautiful garden."
Gone, too, are the sounds that once defined the town. "The bell used to ring here, and the azzan from the mosque," said Nofah Ramah al-Dulaimi, 72, who runs a small clothing shop next to the church, referring to the Islamic call to prayer, which sounds five times a day.
Ms. Dulaimi said she used to keep a notebook of the names of all the families in town, Christian and Muslim, but she burned it two or three years ago, "because I didn't want to remember."
Like Mr. Hawal, she especially recalled celebrating Christmas together. Christian friends would remind her that the holiday was approaching, and she would bake cakes and pies for the occasion. But this year, she said, "I didn't know when it was Christmas."
Mr. Hawal said that his life had become culturally identical to those of his neighbors. At his construction materials shop he hangs a sign that says Allahu Akbar, or God is great, and the customers know him as Abu Yousif (father of Yousif) the Christian. The family prays at home, he said, but the rituals are incomplete without a priest.
The hardest part, he said, is raising his son here. "Whenever I look at him my heart breaks," Mr. Hawal said. "He is my closest friend. I just want him to live a normal life where he can practice the Christian traditions." If another Christian family would take care of the church, he said, he would leave town.
Even with security improving, he still worried about Yousif. Sometimes his wife calls him to say Yousif is missing, and Mr. Hawal has to track the boy down to the soccer field, where he is playing with Muslim friends -- enjoying the game that Assyrian Christians brought to Iraq, momentarily free of sectarian strife. But the sanctuary is fragile, Mr. Hawal knows.
"I am afraid to lose him," he said. "I always tell him not to go to far places, and not to talk to any stranger. He is everything I have left."


Kenney issues statement condemning vandalism at several Montreal synagogues and a Jewish school
Ottawa, January 17, 2011 — The Honourable Jason Kenney, Minister of Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism, issued the following statement condemning the acts of vandalism against several Montreal synagogues and a Jewish school this past weekend. “Any act of vandalism is deplorable. But vandalism against houses of worship of any faith, and places of learning, are particularly cowardly and hateful. I am also profoundly concerned that it was Jewish institutions that were targeted in these attacks. It reminds us that the threat of anti-Semitism still very much exists here in Canada. “Beth Rambam, Tifereth Beth David Jerusalem, Dorshei Emet and Beth Zion were among the synagogues targeted by vandals who threw rocks at the windows of the buildings, smashing several and causing thousands of dollars in damages. The Yavne Academy was also victimized by a cowardly act of vandalism. “Our government is deeply disturbed by the acts of individuals who promote this type of hatred within Canada and around the world. “The Government of Canada will continue to lead the fight against anti-Semitism, a uniquely durable and pernicious form of hatred. “As Minister of Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism, I call on all Canadians to reject intolerance. All forms of racism, bigotry, and vandalism are unacceptable and completely contrary to Canada’s fundamental values of freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law.”


Iran’s road rules
Tony Badran , January 20, 2011
There’s much white noise surrounding the situation in Lebanon, as several actors stir frantically on the margins. Whether it’s France’s proposal for a Lebanon “contact group,” or the Turkish-Qatari-Syrian summit, or the seemingly perpetual talk about reviving the dead Saudi-Syrian action plan, these gesticulations are all essentially irrelevant – the equivalent of garbage time in sports.
Despite their secondary importance, the Syrians are still trying to use such efforts in order to create the impression that the solution to the Lebanese crisis passes exclusively through Damascus. Nevertheless, as Hezbollah signals intent for further escalation, following its withdrawal from the cabinet and the filing of the indictment by Special Tribunal for Lebanon Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare, it’s clear none of these states vying for the diplomatic center stage possesses the initiative. Final say over Hezbollah’s actions lies in Tehran, as was always the case.
Media coverage over the last few days has focused on the loud diplomatic activity around Lebanon. To no one’s surprise, the first to throw his hat in the ring was French President Nicolas Sarkozy. After the collapse of the Lebanese government, the French immediately proposed organizing an informal international group involving, alongside them, the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Syria, Turkey and possibly Egypt.
However, French ambitions were quickly frustrated. For one, as is often the case when trying to cobble together a group of actors with widely divergent agendas, there was disagreement over who would be included in the group, with reports claiming Syrian rejection of Egypt’s participation, as relations between the two remain strained. Secondly, it was unclear what common platform this group might agree to.
The Syrians, who doubtless would love for an international forum to adopt their preferred “solution” and thereby offer them legitimization for a renewed role in Lebanon, were not certain they could forge such a consensus, having fared inconclusively with the French, and having hit a brick wall with the Americans – not to mention the breakdown of their contacts with Saudi Arabia. But most of all, the Syrians want to maintain the facade that they have a monopoly on deciding all matters Lebanese – on behalf of Lebanon. Indeed, the Syrians rejected an Egyptian proposal for an Arab follow-up committee on Lebanon, claiming that Beirut was the exclusive domain of the alleged “Saudi-Syrian understanding.”
The Syrians face a dilemma, however. The illusion of an understanding with the Saudis afforded them a convenient cover to try and impose their agenda in Lebanon. But that illusion was shattered when the talks reached a dead end and Hezbollah forced the collapse of the government. Attempting to circumvent all these hurdles, the Syrians convened a summit with their Qatari and Turkish friends. The Turks were equally interested in maintaining this masquerade in order to promote their favored self image of a primary regional mediator.
The summit was billed as an effort to reignite – and to find a formula to implement – the supposed Saudi-Syrian understanding. The way Hezbollah’s media marketed the Turkish and Qatari involvement was to bill it as providing “regional witnesses that Saad Hariri agreed to abandon the tribunal.”
Against this background, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faysal came out with a definite statement declaring that King Abdullah had ended all mediation efforts with the Syrians over Lebanon. The message was clear: Anything the Syrians and their friends were trying to sell under the rubric of the “Saudi-Syrian initiative” had nothing to do with the Saudis and did not enjoy their approval.
The Saudis realized that they were being used by the Syrians – and without getting anything in return at that. With this declaration, the Saudis lifted their cover they had so unwisely offered Damascus.
However, all these shenanigans aside, in the end neither the Turks nor the Syrians are able to bypass the basic fact that the main interlocutor over the Lebanese crisis is Iran. Regardless of the fanfare in Damascus, Turkey and Qatar soon found out that their efforts were going nowhere in Lebanon. Hezbollah met the new mediators with a hardened position: What was applicable before the filing of the indictment is no longer acceptable.
Indeed, this past Tuesday morning, Hezbollah and its allies organized a series of synchronized, weapons-free small rallies in various neighborhoods of Beirut, demonstrating how quickly they can take over the city. Hezbollah sources were also quoted as saying that this type of action is likely to target UN institutions in the country, such as the ESCWA building or even UNIFIL.
With this action plan, Iran and Hezbollah are narrowing options moving forward, and setting the stage for further escalation. The Turks and the Syrians, and whoever else for that matter, can pretend to be in the driver’s seat all they want – provided everyone understands they’re following an Iranian map, and obeying Tehran’s road rules.
**Tony Badan is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Nabih Berri
January 20, 2011
On January 19, An-Nahar daily carried the following report by Radwan Akil: At a quarter to five yesterday, the internal phone line rang in Speaker Nabih Berri’s bedroom. At first, he thought that a leader in Amal had passed away because he was in a critical condition. But the caller informed him that young men wearing uniforms had spread out around the southern suburbs at the entrance to Beirut. In the meantime, the head of the security file in the movement, Ahmad Baalbaki, was making phone calls to follow up on what was happening “on the ground.” Berri immediately said: “I will not tolerate the presence of any men on the street. Let the citizens go to work and the children go to school as normal.” He proceeded with this task with Hezbollah and security leaders, calling for the ending of the gatherings, something that indeed happened before 8 p.m.
He denied to An-Nahar the information mentioned by some news agencies that Amal participated in the morning show around the capital and at its entrances. The parliament speaker did not wish to comment on the action, which coincided with the arrival of Qatari Foreign Minister Hamad Bin Jassem Bin Jabr al-Thani and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu who brought the outcome of the Damascus summit in the hope of finding an exit to the tunnel the Lebanese have entered, in light of the resigned government and the postponement of the parliamentary consultations at the presidential palace until next Monday. Berri continued that the Qatari-Turkish delegation was “deploying welcome efforts” and preparing for a major and comprehensive accord based on the S-S understanding.
He thus tackled what was presented by the envoys, assuring that what they brought was different from what was being concocted in Beirut last Sunday… Berri thus presented to the envoys a lengthy explanation of all the developments that accompanied the indirect contacts between him and Prime Minister Sa’d al-Hariri via the head of the Democratic Gathering, Deputy Walid Jumblatt… He also mentioned there was a domestic initiative that was being worked on Sunday night, especially after the parties were informed about the date of Bellemare’s delivery of the indictment to Fransen. Berri described this initiative before the Turkish-Qatari delegation as being “the last-minute initiative” that was born when he received Jumblatt on Sunday afternoon.
During this meeting, the head of the Progressive Socialist Party informed him he had received a message from Al-Hariri via Colonel Wissam al-Hassan, saying that he approved the Saudi-Syrian paper related to Lebanon’s dealing with the international tribunal among other issues... Jumblatt carried these ideas to Berri and they focused on three points: The discontinuation of Lebanon’s funding of the international tribunal, the withdrawal of the Lebanese judges and the annulment of the protocol signed with the United Nations.
Berri also spoke about eight other points “all of which serve Al-Hariri.” He thus assured Jumblatt that if Al-Hariri holds his press conference and announces his commitment to the initiative, there would be no problem in postponing the parliamentary consultations, adding: “For my part, I say that 80% of the opposition forces will name Al-Hariri as the prime minister of the next government. If head of the Change and Reform bloc Deputy Michel Aoun disapproves, I will visit him and ask him to proceed with this effort. I will at least ask him to abstain from naming anyone so that the name of Sa’d al-Hariri will remain the only one on the table.”
Berri thus conveyed these facts to the delegation as he believed that they would be accepted by Hezbollah and Al-Hariri, provided that the latter holds a press conference in which he would announce his approval of the ideas he presented to Jumblatt, before Bellemare talked about transferring his report to Fransen… The parliament speaker hoped to get a quick answer from Al-Hariri in this regard, so that he could arrange this settlement and inform the Saudis and Syrians “who spared no effort” concerning its outcome.
At around 8 p.m. on Sunday, Deputy Talal Arslan arrived to Ain al-Tineh and told him that the president of the republic’s circles wanted him to call President Sleiman and ask him to postpone the parliamentary consultations. Berri addressed Prince Talal by asking: “Why would I make this suggestion if it is the idea of the president. But if he calls me, I will not oppose him.” The speaker thus refrained from undertaking that step “so that the majority does not say we are afraid of the outcome of the consultations.”
Before concluding his meeting with the Qatari-Turkish delegation, the speaker said – according to what he informed An-Nahar – that “the other team wasted a golden opportunity which could have allowed the exit from this crisis and the staging of parliamentary consultations in a better climate...”

Is Hezbollah's eye mainly on Syria?
By Michael Young
Daily Star/Thursday, January 20, 2011
Two questions are essential in approaching the events of the past week in Lebanon. The first is, Can Syria can accept a Hezbollah-dominated government in Beirut? The second, Why did Damascus push its political allies to bring down the government of Saad Hariri before ensuring beforehand that Walid Jumblatt and his bloc would decide against naming Hariri as prime minister?
The answer to the first question is, bluntly, no. Syria cannot any more accept formal Hezbollah hegemony over Lebanon than it could a Lebanon ruled by the Palestine Liberation Organization in 1976, when it intervened militarily to prevent such an outcome. The reasons are obvious. A Hezbollah-led government would substantially heighten the prospect of war between Lebanon and Israel, leading to an Israeli intervention that could drag Syria into a conflict not of its choosing.
Another reason, equally compelling as far as Syria's President Bashar Assad is concerned, is that ceding to Hezbollah the power of governance in Lebanon would mean effectively surrendering the country to Iran. Instead, Assad wants Lebanon to be surrendered to Syria. That is why Damascus has sought to exploit the discord over the government to do the only thing it can do to enhance its influence over Lebanese affairs: play Hezbollah off against Hariri.
This leads us to the second question. In fact, it answers it. The Syrians never had any illusions that Jumblatt would abandon Hariri. For the Druze leader, that would have been political suicide. Jumblatt's power of financial patronage comes mainly through Saudi Arabia; several of his parliamentarians are elected in Sunni-majority districts; and around 30 percent of the electorate in the Shouf is Sunni. Jumblatt never wanted to abandon Hariri, and Assad didn't make him do so. If I were a Hezbollah member, that would worry me.
And it may well have, because the party's threat of escalating actions in the street may, partly, be understood best as one facet of a complicated minuet between Syria and Hezbollah. This could be Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah's way of saying that enough room was given to the Syrians and Saudis, to no avail. Now Hezbollah will try something different. Which still doesn't answer why Syria compelled its allies to take a far-reaching decision leading nowhere, that has bought more time for Daniel Fransen, the pretrial judge of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, to confirm prosecutor Daniel Bellemare's indictment.
One explanation is that Syria had no other choice. For Assad, the Syrian-Saudi dialogue was always a cover for Syria's political comeback to Lebanon. Iran and Hezbollah sanctioned it because they could not avoid doing so, but on the assumption that it would ultimately compel Saad Hariri to break off Lebanon's ties with the Special Tribunal. Assad was more flexible. The Syrian leader grasped that if Hariri went that far, he would be politically weakened and unable to stand up to Hezbollah, therefore of no use to Syria in its game of manipulating Lebanese contradictions. So the Syrians showed a double face, urging the Lebanese government to undermine the tribunal but otherwise doing nothing to impose this.
When the Obama administration blocked a Syrian-Saudi deal that would cripple the tribunal, Assad found himself in a tight spot. Without a Syrian-Saudi mechanism, how would Damascus maneuver in Lebanon? Iran and Hezbollah were seeking to pursue a more aggressive path, and the Syrians were at risk of losing the political initiative to them. So Assad hoped to avert this by toppling the government, leading to deadlock, in that way keeping the keys of a solution in his own hands. Expecting Saudi Arabia to withdraw from Lebanese affairs, which it did yesterday, Assad sought to use the summit with Qatar and Turkey to maintain the upper hand in any settlement over a new government. While the Syrian-Saudi label may still be employed, the reality is that Assad is on his own, in search of an elusive Qatari and Turkish fig leaf to press his advantage. The Saudis, in turn, are said to be far less enthusiastic about the Syrians than they were.
Assad sees opportunities ahead. Unless Hezbollah steps in to prevent it, Saad Hariri will be asked to form a new government next week. The Syrians will not oppose this, their major incentive being that Hariri's return will mean heightened tension between him and Hezbollah, which Damascus will exploit in its own favor. Hezbollah's pressure on Hariri will ultimately play into Syria's hands, until the moment when the Special Tribunal's indictment is confirmed and Assad will contrive to step in and broker a settlement allowing him to seize a large share of the Lebanese pie. Ironically, the organization that today holds the largest share of that pie, the portion Syria covets most, namely leadership of the main security and intelligence services, is Hezbollah.
Hezbollah may escalate its actions, but this will only complicate matters. Making Lebanon ungovernable will not sway the Special Tribunal. And against whom will destabilization be directed? There is no government. If Hariri is tasked with forming one, Hezbollah will use instability to curtail the prime minister-designate's ambitions. The downside is that this may delay the cabinet's formation, giving Fransen ample time to approve the indictment.
Hezbollah is in a bind. There is no reason to celebrate, however, because Lebanon as a whole will pay a heavy price. But that won't affect what goes on in The Hague. Which is why Hezbollah should seriously consider looking for a negotiated way out of its impasse.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR and author of “The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon's Life Struggle” (Simon & Schuster).

March 14 blasts Hizbullah's muscle-flexing
By Elias Sakr /Daily Star staff
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
BEIRUT: March 14 parties described Hizbullah’s display of force Tuesday as a “masked rehearsal” of a possible armed coup in preparation against Lebanese state institutions and called on the Lebanese Army and security institutions to assume the responsibility of preserving security. Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s Future Movement parliamentary bloc said the Hizbullah orchestrated gatherings at key intersections in Beirut were masked and unsuccessful attempts in preparation of an armed coup against the Lebanese state. “It became clear that the recent attempts are a masked and unsuccessful equation of an armed coup that the Lebanese will not surrender to or accept and attempts that will not alter our convictions but rather deepen our commitment to our principles,” a statement released by the bloc said. While Hizbullah failed to comment on the organized gatherings mobilized as early as 3 a.m. Tuesday, a figure of the March 8 coalition confirmed that Hizbullah and its allies have decided to take their demands to the street. The Future Movement bloc called on the Lebanese Army and security forces to assume their responsibilities and protect people against those threatening their security and safety. Echoing the Future Movement, the March 14 Secretariat General said that the large-scale orchestrated deployment of Hizbullah members in Beirut violated constitutional norms and democratic values.
The display of force followed the adjournment of binding parliamentary consultations by President Michel Sleiman scheduled for last Monday to name a new prime minister to grant Syrian-Turkish-Qatari efforts a chance to break the deadlock over the disputed issue of the U.N.-backed tribunal.
The crisis over the U.N.-backed court has led to the collapse of Hariri’s Cabinet after he refused Hizbullah’s demand to halt cooperation with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon that is probing the assassination of his father, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
A statement released following the meeting of the secretariat’s officials said the March 8 coalition resorted to such a step after realizing that Hariri still retained a parliamentary majority that would result in his re-nomination as prime minister. “Thus the pressure exercised to postpone binding parliamentary consultations,” it said in reference to reports that Progressive Socialist Party leader M.P. Walid Jumblatt’s parliamentary bloc would have granted Hariri its votes guaranteeing his re-nomination to head the new cabinet.
While Jumblatt’s position remains ambiguous, the P.S.P. said in a statement that its leader alone was entitled to decide upon his future political positions.
Lebanese Forces M.P. Antoine Zahra said the March 8 coalition should refrain from participating in the upcoming government if Hariri gains a parliamentary majority and is re-nominated as prime minister. “The gatherings in Beirut were organized and aimed at delivering a message that Hizbullah is ready to take the action to the streets to serve Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s belief that Lebanon be turned into a battlefield with Israel,” he told LBC TV station earlier.
Zahra told The Daily Star that the Hizbullah-led March 8 coalition could take to the street and resort to force to accomplish its political agenda.
Future Movement MP Oqab Saqr said “militia acts” carried out early in the morning were the first phase of a security operation aimed at intimidating the Lebanese as he warned Hizbullah against acting as an “organized gang.”
“This shameful behavior cannot constitute leverage to the resistance because it is impossible for those who block the way of Beirut citizens to lift the motto of the resistance in south Lebanon against Israel,” he said.
Saqr added that Tawhid Movement Wi’am Wahhab’s statements aimed to undermine the authority of the Lebanese Army and security forces in a bid to guarantee a cover for “gangsters” to implement their plan.
Wahhab warned security forces against intervening to confront any popular protests and threatened to retaliate against the posts of Internal Security Forces in such an event.
“The situation is unstable and we will not allow anyone to tarnish our dignities, land and resistance,” Wahhab said.
“The S.T.L. will not enter Lebanon and whoever thinks he can bring it in will end up in The Hague,” he added.
But Hizbullah’s ally, Amal Movement caretaker Youth and Sports Minister Ali Abdullah, said the gatherings were spontaneous, unarmed and not politically motivated.

Lebanon: caught between flattery and dishonesty
19/01/2011
By Tariq Alhomayed
In a process of blackmail and a clear pressure tactic, Hezbollah yesterday sought to demonstrate its capabilities on the streets of Beirut. However, its supporters soon dispersed and withdrew, and the party was quick to say that it does not intend to resort to the street [as a form of protest]. It is clear that Hezbollah wanted to send a message to Hariri and his associates, indicating that the party is ready and able to occupy Beirut.
Hezbollah’s conduct came after a three-way summit in Damascus, involving Syria, Turkey and Qatar, who called for the activation of the Saudi-Syrian initiative. On the same day that both the foreign ministers of Turkey and Qatar arrived in Beirut, the Syrian President was meeting with the Commander of the Lebanese Army as well. Hezbollah’s behavior was seen as a message to those visiting Beirut, and to the Saudis of course, implying: Pressure Hariri to accept our demands, or else…! It may be appropriate here to share with our readers what I heard from an official close to the Hezbollah issue, who gave an important account of the situation. He said that two facts that must be pointed out, because what people see in Lebanon, and the region in general, comes from conversations that conceal more than they reveal, and simply consist of “flattery and mutual dishonesty”.
The first fact, according to the official, is that the Tribunal “is the only way to learn the truth and achieve justice. To attack and try to disable it only serves to protect the killers, and those who stood behind them, with planning and equipment”. The official believed that “their [Hezbollah’s] agenda had come to light through their attempts to overthrow the Tribunal, even before they had been exposed by it. Even if they had just a modest degree of intelligence, they would have discovered that the Tribunal in fact works in their favor, because it will only charge individual suspects. Yet everyone knows that crimes which involve the assassination of Lebanese leaders require a degree of organization and preparation that is beyond the capabilities of an individual”.
The official then revealed the second fact, namely that terrorist groups and organizations, on the one hand, and sectarian militia on the other, “are just two sides of the same evil coin, despite their false affiliations to God and religion. Their real goal is to tear the countries of the region apart, and turn them into arenas of public discord, civil wars, and conflicts between Muslims and Christians, Sunnis and Shiites. This serves those who want to transform the region into a sort of chessboard to play with, or a bargaining chip”. He added that this in turn “benefits only two parties, namely Israel and Iran. Here we understand why some want to displace Christians, or denounce Sunni moderation, when they know that the alternative is ‘al-Qaeda’ ”. The official wondered “what do you think will be the future of Lebanon if it was ruled by al-Qaeda and sectarian militia?”
Accordingly, further to what was said above, will everyone give in to Hezbollah’s blackmail, or have matters now reached a tipping point? Certainly, giving in to Hezbollah’s demands will only solidify the crisis in Lebanon and the region, whether sectarian or otherwise. However, insisting upon the Tribunal will also increase the irrational behavior of Hezbollah, and ignite the situation…so what is the solution?
It is clear that the time has come for Lebanon to move on from the state of labor it has endured for decades. The country has been built upon mistakes, and all attempts to rectify this have only made matters worse. Thus the time has come to reform Lebanon the hard way, and the International Tribunal is the best way in which to do this.