LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِJanuary 16/2010

Bible Of The Day
The Good News According to Matthew 8/19-22: "8:19 A scribe came, and said to him, “Teacher, I will follow you wherever you go.” 8:20 Jesus said to him, “The foxes have holes, and the birds of the sky have nests, but the Son of Man has nowhere to lay his head.” 8:21 Another of his disciples said to him, “Lord, allow me first to go and bury my father.” 8:22 But Jesus said to him, “Follow me, and leave the dead to bury their own dead.”

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
The US, France, and Their Allies Cannot Allow Terror Group Hezbollah to Deny Justice to the People of Lebanon/By Walid Phares/January 15/11
Report: UN tribunal to link Iran's Supreme Leader with Hariri assassination/Haaretz/January 15/11
Hezbollah’s coup and how to face it/By: Hanin Ghaddar/January 15/11
The Middle East's Christian Onslaught/IPT News/January 15/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 15/11
Hizballah races to form an anti-West government to beat STL indictments/DEBKAfile
US condemns Hezbollah's wrecking of Lebanese gov't/J.Post
Arab League Calls Lebanese Crisis 'Serious'/VOA
In Lebanon, Hariri criticizes Hezbollah/Washington Post
Scenarios: Possible outcomes of Lebanon's government talks/Reuters
Middle East Hariri vows to solve Lebanon crisis/Aljazeera.net
Lebanon's Hariri says no alternative to dialogue/Reuters
US sends ambassador to Syria for the first time in six years/Christian Science Monitor
Lebanon's Jumblatt in Syria for crisis talks/AFP
Is Iran Using Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan to Deflect the West?/AOL
Trial Egyptian accused of spying for Mossad postponed/J.Post
Sayyed Hussein Maneuvered around President, Resigned without Asking him/Naharnet
U.S. Congress Sources: Saudi King Abdullah was Very Upset from Assad/Naharnet
Mufti Qabbani Voices Attachment to Hariri: Premiership is Not a Pawn to Be Exploited/Naharnet
Berri: Let Hariri Announce his Support to S-S and Then He'll See Who I'll Name/Naharnet
Nasrallah to Speak Sunday on Lebanon Crisis/Naharnet
Hariri to Jumblat before MP's Visit to Syria: They Want Me to Surrender and They Have a Gun to My Head/Naharnet
Washington Limited in Bid to Solve Lebanese Crisis/Naharnet
U.S. Message to Suleiman, Jumblat: Naming March 8 PM Jeopardizes U.S. Aid to Lebanon/Naharnet
Hariri: Between Power and My People's Dignity, I Choose Dignity of Lebanon, Lebanese/Naharnet
Erdogan Meets Hariri, Pledges Role in Solving Lebanon Crisis/Naharnet
Connelly after Meeting Aoun: U.S. Calls on All Political Factions to Remain Calm, Exercise Restraint/Naharnet
Battle over Nominations Rocks Lebanon: Hariri or No Hariri/Naharnet
Sayyed Says False Witnesses Case Affecting Entire Nation, Bellemare's Office Asserts He Has No Right to Access Documents/Naharnet
Al-Rai: Failure to Appoint Hariri as PM Will Lead to Continuation of Crisis/Naharnet
 

Report: UN tribunal to link Iran's Supreme Leader with Hariri assassination
Published 10:11 15.01.11/
Newsmax report quoting sources as blaming Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah for the hit comes as Hezbollah ministers resign from Lebanon's unity government in an attempt to pressure Beirut away from aiding UN probe.
By Avi Issacharoff and Haaretz Service
A United Nations tribunal is to indict Iran's spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with ordering the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, U.S. news website Newsmax reported on Saturday, adding that the hit itself was planned executed by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in collaboration with Hezbollah.
The report comes just days into Lebanon's latest political crisis, as minister affiliated with Hezbollah and its allies withdrew from the unity cabinet led by Saad Hariri earlier this week, citing Hariri's cooperation with the UN-led probe of his father's killing.
Saturday's Newsmax report, also cited by Lebanese news website Naharnet, quotes source close to the UN investigation of the Hariri killing who claimed that the order to assassinate the former Lebanon premier was given by Khamenei.
The order was then reportedly passed on to Hezbollah military leader Imad Mughniyeh by the head of the IRG's Quds foece, Qassem Suleymani. Upon receiving the order, Mughniyeh and brother in law Mustapha Badr al-Dine allegedly put together an assassination squad.
Mughniyeh himself was killed in a car bombing in Damascus on February 12, 2008. Hezbollah has blamed Israel for the assassination, but Israel has denied any involvement.
Speaking with Newsmax, a conservative news website, sources close to the probe are quoted as saying that the "Iranians considered Hariri to be an agent of Saudi Arabia, and felt that killing him would pave the way for a Hezbollah takeover of Lebanon."
The report also alleges that both Syrian President Bashar Assad and the head of Syrian intelligence and brother in law Assef Shawkat were also involved in the operation.
Also on Satruday, the Lebanese daily Al Nahar reported that the UN tribunal probing Hariri's murder intended to submit a draft indictment later in the day.
According to Al Nahar's Saturday report, the tribunal is set to hand in a draft indictment as soon as 15:00 P.M. local time on Saturday to Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen.
Fransen would then have around six weeks before he decides whether or not to proceed toward a trial.
The report of Iran's alleged involvement in the planning and execution of the Hariri assassination comes in an already volatile period in Lebanese politics, as many fear that indictments against Hezbollah officials could spark a new round of factional violence, if not full-on civil war.
Hezbollah, which is supported by Syria and Iran and maintains an arsenal that far outweighs that of the national army, denounces the Netherlands-based tribunal as a conspiracy by the U.S. and Israel. It had been pressuring Hariri to reject any of its findings even before they came out, but Hariri has refused to break cooperation with the tribunal.
Now, the chasm between the two sides is deepening with Hezbollah accusing Hariri's bloc of bowing to the West. Hezbollah's ministers timed their resignations to coincide with Hariri's meeting with President Barack Obama in Washington, forcing him to meet the American president as a caretaker prime minister.
Lebanon suffered through a devastating civil war from 1975-1990, a 1982 Israeli invasion to drive out Palestinian fighters in the south, a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, and deadly sectarian fighting between Sunnis and Shiites in 2008.
An indication that some of those fears may have been founded came late Thursday as unknown individuals hurled grenades at the headquarters of Hezbollah ally Free Patriotic Movement's headquarters north of Beirut. No injuries were reported.
Speaking of the need to regain control of the potentially volatile Lebanese political scene, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said earlier Thursday that he was sure there would be no civil conflict between Shiites and Sunnis.
According to a Channel 10 reported citing the Al-Jazeera news network, Nasrallah, who had been reportedly holding meetings with other Hezbollah officials in recent days to discuss the political situation in Lebanon, blamed Hariri for the current political crisis, urging the Lebanese prime minister to remain on his overseas trip and not return to Lebanon.

Hizballah races to form an anti-West government to beat STL indictments
DEBKAfile Special Report January 15, 2011, Lebanon's ex-prime minister Saad Hariri returned home to Beirut Friday, Jan. 14, two days after his opponents led by Hizballah toppled his national unity government. He landed in the middle of a hectic race by Hizballah's leader Hassan Nasrallah to negotiate an alternative government to Hariri's pro-West regime in order to fend off indictments against his top officials for the murder of Saad's father six years ago. Suspense is high in Beirut where the Special Lebanese Tribunal prosecutor Daniel Bellemare is expected momentarily to hand his findings to the pre-trial judge Daniel Fransen for a decision on their publication. Nasrallah believes he can beat the rap by a bloodless coup through parliament. The anti-West side of the legislature commands 57 seats versus the 54 of Hariri's March 14 bloc; 17 seats are up for grabs including 11 Druze mandates. The Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt, after being cajoled and threatened by the Hizballah leader to throw his faction behind Hizballah, arrived in Damascus Saturday, Jan. 15, and was received by Syrian President Bashar Assad.
If Nasrallah succeeds in establishing an anti-Western government in Beirut, its first task would be to pronounce the international Hariri tribunal illegitimate, so saving his henchmen from being brought to justice for the assassination. At the same time, he would hand Tehran control of its first Arab government and achieve a fait accompli for beating back the Obama administration's plan to confront Iran in Lebanon. The news of his government's fall reached Hariri in conversation with President Barak Obama in Washington Wednesday, Jan. 12. Although he came away from the White House with the president's full backing, they were quickly overtaken by Iranian-backed moves in Beirut.
Hariri, when he stopped over in Paris on his way home as caretaker prime minister, was rebuffed by French president Nicolas Sarkozy whom he asked for support. He got the same treatment in Ankara. Thus far, Syria like Israel has refrained from showing its hand in Lebanon. Saad Hariri has vowed to stand solidly behind the tribunal and its right to try his father's murderers. But on his return, he said noncommittally that he would cooperate with President Michel Suleiman's efforts to stabilize the situation in Lebanon.
This uneven contest between Washington and Tehran has grabbed the attention of every capital in the Middle East and Persian Gulf.
A Hizballah-dominated cabinet in Beirut would hit Israel with the force of a strategic earthquake. Instead of being 1,200 kilometers away, its archenemy would sit on its borders at point blank range. In Beirut, Tehran would be able to add a Northern Front to the Eastern Front it is establishing in Baghdad. Iranian military steel. Already present in the form of Revolutionary Guards officers, would be on the spot for backing Lebanon's complaints about Israel's gas strikes in the eastern Mediterranean.
The official word from Jerusalem Friday, that there is no sign as yet that Hizballah is about to extend the crisis in Beirut to Lebanon's southern border with Israel, was given out to the media to account for the Netanyahu government's tendency to fall behind Washington's lead - even when passivity prejudices Israel's direct security interests.
Hizballah has made no bones about its plans to extend its "resistance" operations to supporting Hamas on Israel's southwestern border. This only awaits a settlement in Beirut and the completion of the brand-new fortifications Iran's military engineering experts are building for Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
The Lebanese constitution assigns the post of prime minister to a Sunni Muslim. Hizballah leader has tagged two pro-Syrian, former premiers as its candidates: Omar Abdul Hamid Karami, strongman of the Tripoli region in the north, and Najib Azmi Mikati, a multimillionaire business tycoon who failed to form a government in 2005.
Nasrallah has every hope of whipping the Druzes in line one way or another as indicated by his comment to Jumblatt: "Do you remember Mysore 2008?"
This was a snide reference to the four-day Hizballah assault of May 2008 on Druze villages in the Chouf Mountains east of Beirut. It ended at Mysore village where the Druzes were defeated in a bloody battle.
In Damascus, the Druze leader asked Assad for guarantees against another Hizballah attack on his villages.
Hariri also tried to line up a guarantee for his safety when he stopped over in Ankara on his way home Thursday, Jan. 13. But like in Paris, he was at the wrong address.
So committed is Turkish premier Recep Erdogan to promoting the anti-West Turkish-Iranian-Syrian alliance, that he was willing last month to become the first Sunni Muslim ever to celebrate the annual Shiite Ashura festival, which commemorates the death of Imam Hussein (for Shiites, the martyrdom) 1,300 years ago. For him, an Iranian Shiite victory in Lebanon means netting a new and important asset for that bloc.

Interview from the CNN with Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir audio & text /Naharnet
Christians' plight in Middle East 'tragic,' says Catholic leaderFrom Rima Maktabi, CNN
January 15, 2011
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/01/15/patrirach.sfeir.christians.mideast/
CNN) -- For a quarter of a century Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir has been Lebanon's most influential religious representative.
Patriarch Sfeir is the Head of the Maronite Catholic Church and such is his authority that when he speaks, both Christians and Muslims listen.
Now aged 90, Patriarch Sfeir rarely gives interviews but he made an exception for CNN's Inside the Middle East.
Here he talks about the issues facing Christians in the Middle East and how all Lebanese must make every effort for peace not war.
Patriarch Sfeir: The current situation of the Christians is tragic, by and large because many of them are leaving, especially those living in Iraq who travel to a much safer environment like the United States, Europe or elsewhere.
This is why they need to be reassured so they can go back to their brothers where they reside and to the governments who rule the lands.
CNN: Is there any clear number of the Christians in the Middle East?
PS: I don't have numbers, but it seems that the number of the Christians who (have) left Iraq is getting larger.
CNN: How can they encourage the Christians to stay in Iraq?
Christians need to be reassured so they can go back to their brothers where they reside.
PS: Of course we can't ask them to stay behind in Iraq where they are at if they are in inevitable danger. Because if they are daily facing the threats of being killed, expulsed and their homes are being demolished and they are living in fear ... no one can stay and live in constant threat, and that's why they are emigrating.
CNN: What about the Christians in Lebanon? What about their situation?
PS: All of Lebanon is worried, so the concern is not limited to the Lebanese Christians but everyone, Christians and non-Christians (are) feeling the angst. Therefore we hope that the situation will get better than what it is right now.
CNN: Did the Lebanese Christians lose their political, social and economic power because of demographics and immigration?
PS: Of course, the situation has changed. The Christians were the majority and they had a special role in Lebanon, but population growth changed the situation.
An average Christian family was satisfied with having three or four children, but a Muslim family would probably end up having 10 or 15 children, and this is a huge difference in terms of numbers between the two families.
This is why the Muslims outnumbered the Christians, not to mention that many Christians and some Muslims are emigrating to far off countries as well.
CNN: Why do you think Islamic fundamentalism is growing in this time and age?
PS: The spread of fundamentalism in this time and age has its concepts because the people assuredly abandoned the path of righteousness and benevolence and committed acts that are against justice and fairness. And that why this led some individuals to take action on their own.
This is not Islam because Islam is, of course, a religion that promotes worshipping the goodness in life, worshipping God and being fair to others.
CNN: Do you ever foresee Lebanon one day without a Christian president?
PS: I don't know. Maybe if things developed and the Christians became the minority one day, maybe. God knows.
CNN: Do you think this will happen anytime soon?
PS: This depends on the Lebanese themselves because if the number of the non-Christians in Lebanon keeps growing, and the number of Christians keeps shrinking maybe some voices will rise demanding a change in the presidency. Our message is that the people must live among each other with respect and harmony and that everyone must make every effort for peace and never for war.

US condemns Hezbollah's wrecking of Lebanese gov't
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
01/14/2011 22:37
WASHINGTON — The United States has condemned Hizbullah vigorously for quitting Lebanon's pro-Western government and causing it to collapse. A White House statement promised to help Lebanon peacefully reconstitute a government.National Security Adviser Tom Donilon said Friday that Hizbullah's intentions have been "laid bare." He said the Shi'ite militant group would have a hard time presenting itself as a "righteous resistance organization" if it continues trying to undermine "international efforts to find the truth."

Arab League Calls Lebanese Crisis ‘Serious’
Cecily Hilleary 14 January 2011
VOA/The resignations of 11 Hezbollah cabinet members in Lebanon has plunged the country into its worst political crisis since 2008, when sectarian street clashes claimed dozens of lives and brought Lebanon to the brink of another civil war. The so-called Doha agreement of May, 2008, ended 18 months of political violence.
The latest crisis revolves around the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal investigating the suicide bombing that killed former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and 22 others in 2005. Saudi-backed Prime Minister Saad Hariri, son of the slain statesman, has supported the Tribunal, which has been set to blame Hezbollah. Hezbollah has denied any involvement in Hariri’s death, shifting the blame to Israeli. Both Syria and Saudi Arabia had been working to mediate the controversy, but those talks broke down earlier this week without any resolution.
**Hisham Youssef is the Chief of Staff for the Secretary General of the League of Arab States Amr Moussa. He spoke to VOA's Cecily Hilleary from his office in Cairo.

Harb: Lebanon High Authorities Have Been Informed Indictment to Be Submitted to Fransen in 72 Hrs
The high authorities in Lebanon have been informed that Special Tribunal for Lebanon Prosecutor Danielle Bellemare will submit a draft indictment in the Hariri case to STL Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen "in 72 hours," Caretaker Labor Minister Boutros Harb said Saturday. Contacted by LBC TV network following his talks with President Michel Suleiman at the Baabda Palace, Harb confirmed media reports that a draft indictment will be submitted on Monday. "Yes, the (draft) indictment will be submitted to STL Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen on Monday, this is what Beirut has been told by The Hague," Harb said. About his talks with Suleiman, Harb noted that the president is "committed to conducting consultations with parliamentarians (on naming a new prime minister) in an atmosphere of calm, the thing that would enhance accord in Lebanon." "He is also committed to what the Constitution obligates in order to maintain the work of state institutions and the country's stability," Harb added.
Lebanese daily An-Nahar Saturday quoted sources following the STL file as saying that Bellemare will deliver the indictment in the investigation into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri to Fransen on Saturday at 3:00pm. The sources added that should any development impede the delivery on Saturday, Fransen would receive the indictment on Monday at the latest. According to the tribunal's rules of procedure, Fransen will next be tasked with confirming the confidential indictment before any arrest warrants or summonses to appear can be issued -- a process that should take six to 10 weeks. He could also reject the charges in part or in full, or ask the prosecutor for additional information. The STL declined to comment on the report. "We will say it has been done the day it has been done, we won't announce when this is going to take place," spokesman Crispin Thorold told Agence France Presse. Meanwhile at the court headquarters in the Netherlands, sources close to the assassination case said that Bellemare will deliver the indictment "soon" and it may be released next week. French daily Le Monde reported that the indictment is likely to be presented under wraps to the tribunal on Monday.
"According to several sources close to the office of the prosecutor, the charges target members of Hizbullah," said sources close to the STL.
The group and its allies withdrew from the Lebanese cabinet on Wednesday in protest against the ongoing U.N.-backed investigation, prompting the collapse of the unity government led by Prime Minister Saad Hariri, son of the murdered premier. The pending indictment has split Lebanon's unity government, pitting Hizbullah against a camp led by the Saudi- and Western-backed Saad Hariri. The STL was created by a 2007 U.N. Security Council resolution to find and try the killers of Hariri, assassinated in a massive car bombing on the Beirut seafront on February 14, 2005 that also killed 22 other people. Hizbullah, which dismisses the tribunal as part of a U.S.-Israeli plot, has repeatedly said it would not accept the indictment of its members and warned of repercussions, raising regional fears of renewed Sunni-Shiite sectarian violence. Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah warned in November the group will "cut off the hand" of anyone who tries to arrest any of its members for the Hariri killing. A trial could follow "four to six months" after the charges are confirmed, tribunal registrar Herman von Hebel told journalists in The Hague in December. "Maybe September or October, something like that, at some point of the second half of the year, (2011)" Von Hebel said, basing his assessment "on the experience of other tribunals".The STL's rules allows for a trial to be held "in absentia", meaning without the accused being present, if arrests are impossible.(Naharnet-AFP) Beirut, 15 Jan 11, 16:53

Jumblat-Assad Meeting Warns of Dangers of Foreign Meddling, Stresses Regional-Made Solutions
Naharnet/Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met with Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat in Damascus on Saturday. The Syrian news agency SANA reported that the meeting addressed the latest developments in Lebanon and the region. The two leaders stressed the importance of being aware of foreign intervention, calling for decisions and solutions to be in the hands of the sons of the region. Beirut, 15 Jan 11, 10:25

Geagea Says Hizbullah to Blame for Any Strife, Rules Out Quick Govt Formation
Naharnet/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has noted that the recent resignation of the March 8 camp ministers from the Lebanese government had always been one of the expected scenarios, adding that "the surprise was the irresponsibility of the other camp." In an interview with Egyptian newspaper Rose Al-Youssef to be published Sunday, Geagea accused the rival March 8 camp of trying to get rid of the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon. As he described the rival camp as "a major, far-reaching camp that begins in Tehran and does not end in Beirut," the LF leader said "the March 8 camp fears the findings of the (U.N.) investigation." He noted, however, that his analysis does not mean "any Lebanese party is involved" in the murder of former premier Rafik Hariri. Geagea denied that he was aware of the content of STL's much-anticipated chargesheet, which according to unconfirmed media reports will indict members of Hizbullah in connection with the 2005 murder of Hariri. The LF leader ruled out a speedy formation of a new Lebanese cabinet, following the collapse of the hard-won national unity government led by Saad Hariri on Wednesday when Hizbullah and its allies resigned over the U.N. probe. Geagea stressed that he was opposed to any armed clashes in Lebanon over the findings of the STL, noting that the March 14 forces would resort to "constitutional procedures" to deal with such a possibility.In this regard, Geagea voiced concerns over possible disturbances and rioting under the guise of protests over the living conditions -- scheduled for January 30 – and noted that Hizbullah was "the only side able to decide whether a strife will erupt or not." Beirut, 15 Jan 11, 18:17

Mufti Qabbani Voices Attachment to Hariri: Premiership is Not a Pawn to Be Exploited
Naharnet/Grand Mufti Sheikh Mohammed Rashid Qabbani stated on Saturday that it is unfortunate that matters have reached this level in Lebanon after the toppling of Prime Minister Saad Hariri's government, saying that forming a new one will benefit the whole of Lebanon. He said during a press conference: "This time around, a vacuum in the premiership will not be acceptable. It is not a weak pawn that can be exploited every once in a while." "It is the country's vital nerve, which dies if it is left vacant," he continued. "Stability, controlling the situation on the ground, avoiding a premiership vacuum, and confronting the Israeli enemy are main priorities," he pointed out. Qabbani warned against resorting to street action to resolve any political dispute, saying that it will only lead to bloodshed and creating adversity among the Lebanese. All sides, along with the army, are responsible in preventing the dispute from pouring onto the street, he stressed.Furthermore, he commended Saudi Arabia and Syria's efforts to end Lebanon's political crisis. Beirut, 15 Jan 11, 12:10

U.S. Congress Sources: Saudi King Abdullah was Very Upset from Assad
Naharnet/U.S. official sources strongly denied Syrian allegations that the U.S. had intervened in the Saudi-Syrian initiative aimed at ending the Lebanese political crisis, reported the daily An Nahar Saturday. They also condemned "rumors spread by Syria" that King Abdullah and caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri were disputed over the latter's failure to implement what was expected of him to end the crisis. The truth is, said the sources, is that Saudi Arabia did not demand any specific concessions from Hariri, but Syria did not fulfill commitments pledged to the Saudis. These commitments included demarcating the Lebanese-Syrian border, eliminating Syrian arrest warrants against a number of political and media figures close to Hariri, and tackling the Palestinians' armed presence outside the Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon. The sources stated that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad refused to fulfill any pledge and wanted "to force Hariri to make concessions", which caused the Saudi monarch to become very irritated with him, leading him to mistrust the Syrians. The sources spoke of a disappointment over Syria's lack of enthusiasm towards Obama's call to hold a dialogue, adding that the Syrian president had a number of occasions to open a new page of ties with Washington through direct dialogue with Obama, but he passed up those opportunities. They wondered that if the Syrians could not positively deal with Obama, then how would they fare with a Republic president. Beirut, 15 Jan 11, 14:21

Sayyed Hussein Maneuvered around President, Resigned without Asking him
Naharnet/Visitors to President Michel Suleiman reported his extreme disappointment from State Minister Adnan Sayyed Hussein's resignation as he was considered a minister who was affiliated with him, reported the daily An Nahar Saturday. The visitors said that Sayyed Hussein had expressed his desire to resign, but Suleiman had advised him to await caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri's return from his trip abroad before stepping down, as a sign of respect. The minister however, acted without the president's approval and hastily submitted his resignation. In contrast, the March 8 ministers had acted according to protocol in that they submitted their resignations to Cabinet Secretary General Suheil Bauji, who would then hand them over to Hariri, who in turn would deliver them to Suleiman. Beirut, 15 Jan 11, 13:22

Berri: Let Hariri Announce his Support to S-S and Then He'll See Who I'll Name
Naharnet/House Speaker Nabih Berri stressed that the Saudi-Syrian initiative is the only solution to the Lebanese political crisis. He told the daily An Nahar in remarks published on Saturday that whoever abandons the initiative will be held responsible "before God, the country, and the Lebanese for leading the country back to square one."Berri's visitors reported him as saying that he would rename caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri to head a new government, quoting him as saying: "Let Hariri voice his support to the Saudi-Syrian initiative, and then he'll see who I will name."The speaker also stressed the importance maintaining the peace in Lebanon, calling against destabilizing the situation in the country. Security is the most important matter and the current developments in Lebanon are purely constitutional and they can be tackled through politics, Berri stated. Beirut, 15 Jan 11, 10:06

Nasrallah to Speak Sunday on Lebanon Crisis
Naharnet/Hizbullah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah will speak on Sunday for the first time since ministers from his party and its allies toppled the government of Saad Hariri, al-Manar television said. The announcement comes a day after Hariri, who was in the United States when the cabinet walkout took place, returned home and vowed to cooperate in forming a new government. "The secretary general of Hizbullah, Hassan Nasrallah, will make an appearance on Sunday at 8:30 pm (1830 GMT) ... to comment on the latest developments," the television said. Hariri's government collapsed on Wednesday after the powerful Iranian-backed Hizbullah and its allies resigned in a dispute over a U.N.-backed probe into the 2005 murder of his father, ex-premier Rafik Hariri. Shortly after meeting President Michel Suleiman on Friday, Hariri said "my allies and I will participate in consultations (to name a new premier) and will fully cooperate with the president to form a new government in line with the requirements to maintain national unity."
The western-backed premier, after a week of talks in the United States, France and Turkey, said the collapse of his cabinet was "unprecedented in the history of Lebanese governments."
Hizbullah, Lebanon's most powerful armed faction, for months has been pressuring Hariri to reject the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which is reportedly poised to indict high-ranking members of the party in the Hariri assassination. The group has warned of grave repercussions should it be accused of the murder. Although he did not specifically refer to the tribunal, Hariri made clear he would not cave in to pressure to reject the court. He accused Hizbullah of refusing to make concessions while pressing him to "make personal and national sacrifices."
Hariri said his consultations abroad were aimed at "protecting Lebanon from sliding into the unknown." "Some took advantage of the situation to ... put an end to the political truce" brokered by Saudi Arabia and Syria, he said, adding dialogue was the only way out of the current impasse.
"No one party in Lebanon can rule on its own," he said. Suleiman, who declared the government a caretaker cabinet after the resignations, is to begin consultations with MPs on appointing a new premier on Monday. Turkey and France have been leading the way in efforts to prevent an outbreak of violence in the troubled Middle Eastern country.
France, Lebanon's former colonial power, has proposed the creation of an international "contact group" similar to that of the Balkans in the 1990s to negotiate a settlement, a European diplomat in Beirut told AFP. The French foreign ministry refused to confirm or deny the proposal. Turkey, a NATO member seeking to position itself as a key broker in the Middle East, has said it was ready to play "an active role" in helping end the crisis in Lebanon. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday after meeting with Hariri that he was ready to contact regional heavyweights Syria and Iran among others. And U.S. ambassador to Lebanon Maura Connelly reiterated her country's unwavering support for the tribunal, urging Lebanon's feuding camps to exercise restraint.(AFP) Beirut, 15 Jan 11, 11:40

Al-Rai: Failure to Appoint Hariri as PM Will Lead to Continuation of Crisis
Naharnet/Widely informed political circles revealed that failure to appoint current caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri as the premier of a new Lebanese government will lead to the continuation of the country's political crisis. They told the Kuwaiti al-Rai newspaper that the March 14 camp will stand firm in its demand that Hariri be named as the new prime minister seeing as he enjoys wide international and Arab support. It seems likely that Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat will name Hariri to head the new Cabinet, which would lead to the parliamentary majority maintaining its control of parliament, added the circles. His choice would also likely lead to Hariri being named as premier once again, they continued.
The March 8 forces however are seeking to appoint a figure other than Hariri, which would assert Syria's power in Lebanon and stand as a defiant position in the face of Arab and international powers, they noted. These developments mean that Lebanon is likely to endure a long political crisis, which will only be aggravated by the release of the indictment in the investigation into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the circles concluded. Beirut, 14 Jan 11, 16:56

Sayyed Hussein Maneuvered around President, Resigned without Asking him
Naharnet/Visitors to President Michel Suleiman reported his extreme disappointment from State Minister Adnan Sayyed Hussein's resignation as he was considered a minister who was affiliated with him, reported the daily An Nahar Saturday. The visitors said that Sayyed Hussein had expressed his desire to resign, but Suleiman had advised him to await caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri's return from his trip abroad before stepping down, as a sign of respect. The minister however, acted without the president's approval and hastily submitted his resignation.In contrast, the March 8 ministers had acted according to protocol in that they submitted their resignations to Cabinet Secretary General Suheil Bauji, who would then hand them over to Hariri, who in turn would deliver them to Suleiman. Beirut, 15 Jan 11, 13:22

Question: "Why is it important to study the Bible in context? What is wrong with taking verses out of context?"
GotQuestions.org/Answer: It's important to study Bible passages and stories within their context. Taking verses out of context leads to all kinds of error and misunderstanding. Understanding context begins with four principles: literal meaning (what it says), historical setting (the events of the story, to whom is it addressed, and how it was understood at that time), grammar (the immediate sentence and paragraph within which a word or phrase is found) and synthesis (comparing it with other parts of Scripture for a fuller meaning). Context is crucial to biblical exegesis in that it is one of its most important fundamentals. After we account for the literal, historical, and grammatical nature of a passage, we must then focus on the outline and structure of the book, then the chapter, then the paragraph. All of these things refer to "context." To illustrate, it is like looking at Google Maps and zooming in on one house.
Taking phrases and verses out of context always leads to misunderstanding. For instance, taking the phrase "God is love" (1 John 4:7-16) out of its context, we might come away thinking that our God loves everything and everyone at all times with a gushing, romantic love. But in its literal and grammatical context, “love” here refers to agape love, the essence of which is sacrifice for the benefit of another, not a sentimental, romantic love. The historical context is also crucial, because John was addressing believers in the first century church and instructing them not on God’s love per se, but on how to identify true believers from false professors. True love—the sacrificial, beneficial kind—is the mark of the true believer (v. 7), those who do not love do not belong to God (v. 8), God loved us before we loved Him (vv. 9-10), and all of this is why we should love one another and thereby prove that we are His (v. 11-12).
Furthermore, considering the phrase "God is love" in the context of all of Scripture (synthesis) will keep us from coming to the false, and all-too-common, conclusion that God is only love or that His love is greater than all His other attributes, which is simply not the case. We know from many other passages that God is also holy and righteous, faithful and trustworthy, graceful and merciful, kind and compassionate, omnipotent, omnipresent and omniscient, and many, many other things. We also know from other passages that God not only loves, but He also hates.
The Bible is the Word of God, literally "God-breathed" (2 Timothy 3:16), and we are commanded to ready, study, and understand it through the use of good Bible study methods and always with the inspiration of the Holy Spirit to guide us (1 Corinthians 2:14). Our study is greatly enhanced by maintaining diligence in the use of context because it is quite easy come to wrong conclusions by taking phrases and verses out of context. It is not difficult to point out places that seemingly contradict other portions of Scripture, but if we carefully look at their context and use the entirety of Scripture as a reference, we can understand the meaning of a passage. “Context is king” means that the context often drives the meaning of a phrase. To ignore context is to put ourselves at a tremendous disadvantage.
**Recommended Resource: Basic Bible Interpretation by Roy Zuck.

The WCCR issued a letter to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon stressing on the major points:
The premeditated resignation of eleven Ministers from the Lebanese Government is nothing short of a prelude to destabilize Lebanon, at the hands of the terror organization Hezbollah.
It is an act of subversion because it deliberately moved to bring down a government which has sought to deliver peace, justice and dignity to the people of Lebanon.
It is an act of subversion because Hezbollah has demonstrated total disregard for Prime Minister Saad Hariri and the elected parliamentary majority who in an act of trust, for the purpose of peace, accommodated the opposition with eleven ministers to form a consensus government to take Lebanon forward on a peaceful journey. Hezbollah Ministers and their affiliates provided nothing but obstacles in the way of progress and brought the work of government to a standstill; but rather, in spite of such a generous accommodation, the forces of evil and terror have not permitted the government to function nor to advance the cause of the Lebanese nation.
Their exclusive objective in government was to stop the independent Special Tribunal (STL) for Lebanon. Perhaps they acknowledge their own criminal behavior and will do anything to stop the STL from exposing them to the world community.
The entire world has witnessed that Prime Minister Saad Hariri has made every endeavor to work with Syria, Iran and Hezbollah but unfortunately to no avail. They simply wanted to terminate the STL.
When the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi Nijed visited Lebanon during the last summer, he instructed Hassan Nasrallah to take control of all governmental institutions in Beirut. This objective has been achieved already. This leads us to believe that Ahmadi Nijed has now instructed Nasrallah to withdraw all his ministers from government. This is a direct attempt to stop Lebanon from funding the STL and thus hoping the STL will collapse.
How long will the rest of the world continue to appease this incontrollable axis of evil?
The people of Lebanon want Independence, Democracy and Freedom. As such, we call on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to place Lebanon under tight observation and security to disarm Hezbollah as per UNSC 1559 and again we call for the placement of Lebanon under UNSC chapter 7, until peace and justice are restored to this suffering people.

The United States, France, and Their Allies Cannot Allow Terror Group Hezbollah to Deny Justice to the People of Lebanon
By Walid Phares
Published January 15, 2011
| FoxNews.com
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/01/14/united-states-france-allies-allow-terror-group-hezbollah-deny-justice-people/
On Wednesday , Hezbollah brought down Lebanon’s democratic government. The group withdrew its ministers from the cabinet, crumbling the unity government in an impeccably-timed constitutional coup only a few hours before prime minister Saad Hariri was to meet President Obama in Washington. The message came directly from Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Iran-backed militia, to Hariri, son of slain prime minister Rafiq Hariri: We won’t allow you to request international support for the United Nations tribunal investigating your father’s assassination. Hezbollah’s political preemptive strike stymies the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s ability to arrest the alleged perpetrators of the killing, who -- all signs suggest -- are members of the organization. But the play sends another more ominous message, as well: It’s Tehran’s way of telling Washington that Lebanon is now a satellite of the Islamic Republic of Iran, not an ally of the United States. After 15 years of civil war between a camp backed by Syria and Hezbollah and its moderate, pro-American opponents, most of Lebanon fell under Baathist occupation in 1990. The Israelis maintained a security zone south of the Litani river, but the rest of the country was beholden to Syria and Iran.
Ten years later, Israel withdrew, and dismantled its local proxy force on the Lebanese side of the border after Beirut’s Syrian-controlled government pledged to send in the regular Lebanese army and allow the U.N. monitoring forces to protect the demarcation lines. But Syrian intelligence ruled the country with an iron fist, and Hezbollah advanced south to Israel’s border anyway. After a few years, the Lebanese rose up against Syrian occupation and the yoke of Hezbollah. In September 2004, the United States and France introduced what became U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559, calling on Syria to withdraw from Lebanon and all militias -- meaning principally Hezbollah -- to disarm. Syrian president Bashar Assad responded by ordering a series of assassinations, culminating in the killing of Sunni prime minister Rafiq Hariri and his aides on February 14, 2005.
The Hariri assassination backfired in a way that Assad could only have imagined in his nightmares, triggering demonstrations that drew an unprecedented 1.5 million (out of a population of just four million residents) into the streets of downtown Beirut. The Cedar Revolution prompted the international community, led by the U.S. and France, to ask Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon. Assad complied with the request, but left behind its other army, Hezbollah.
The first legislative elections after the Syrian withdrawal gave the Cedar Revolution, also known as the March 14 Coalition, a majority in parliament. The government chose to include Hezbollah in the cabinet it formed in July 2005, in hopes that the group would moderate its influence in Lebanon. The government’s magnanimity was repaid with an ever-escalating terror campaign that killed members of parliament, journalists, and Lebanese army officers who opposed Hezbollah. In the summer of 2006, Hezbollah triggered a devastating war with Israel, using Lebanese opposition to the Israeli strikes to galvanize local support. In May 2008, Hezbollah invaded West Beirut and other districts, crumbling the pro-Western cabinet of prime minister Fuad Siniora and enabling it to install General Michel Suleiman, the commander appointed head of the armed forces during the Syrian occupation in 1998, as president. Having strengthened its position -- and with Washington increasingly inattentive -- Hezbollah secured a third of the Lebanese cabinet, and veto power over the government’s decisions.
But the Special Tribunal the U.N. had established to investigate and prosecute the terrorists responsible for the Hariri assassination had reached findings that implicated members of Hezbollah, and possibly Syrian intelligence. Tehran and Damascus recognize that the incrimination of their primary force in Lebanon constitutes a serious threat to their interests in the Levant.
Hezbollah has built a very powerful arsenal in Lebanon, and developed cells from Iraq, to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, northern Africa and even Latin America. Some believe Hezbollah already has terror operatives at work on U.S. soil. -- Indicting Hezbollah will jeopardize Iran’s ability to project force by unconventional means around the world.
Hezbollah’s latest move makes perfect sense: it aims to protect itself from the forthcoming judicial indictments, and deprive Lebanon of an independent government. The United States, France, and their allies cannot allow Hezbollah to deny justice to the Lebanese people.
**Dr. Walid Phares is a Fox News Terrorism and Middle East Expert and a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is the author of the newly released book, "The Coming Revolution: Struggle for Freedom in the Middle East."

Political Crisis in Lebanon Gives New Sway to
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527
48704637704576082192737957806.html
Wall Journal Street/BEIRUT—The main Lebanese factions in the political dispute that brought down the government here Wednesday are looking to Syrian President Bashar Assad for support—underscoring Syria's resurgence as a major player in the region. Lebanon's Parliament is set to pick a prime minister on Tuesday after two days of debate in the legislature—but the country's political future could be decided in Damascus this weekend. Prime Minister Saad Hariri was ousted from the post by opposition ministers led by Hezbollah, the militant Shiite political party, on Wednesday, over Mr. Hariri's refusal to reject a United Nations-backed tribunal investigating the assassination of his father, a former prime minister.
A carpet with the image of late Hezbollah commander Imad Mughnieh hung in a Beirut suburb Friday. A U.S. report leaked by WikiLeaks suggested Hezbollah believed Syria was responsible for his assassination in 2008. .The tribunal is expected in the coming weeks to indict members of Hezbollah for roles in the assassination. Damascus and Hezbollah, which also has Iran's backing, have sought to stall the indictments. Lebanon's main daily newspaper, An Nahar, reported that Hezbollah ministers withdrew from the cabinet following a call by Mr. Assad for their resignations. The collapse created the worst political crisis Lebanon has seen in over two years.
Independent parliamentarian Walid Jumblatt, whose Druze bloc has enough seats to deliver a majority to whichever candidate he chooses, was set to meet with Mr. Assad in Damascus on Saturday. Supporters of Mr. Hariri said they were hoping Mr. Jumblatt would convince the Syrian leader to endorse the prime minister's return to office. Mr. Hariri arrived in Lebanon on Friday after meetings seeking support in Washington, France and Turkey. By Lebanese law, the prime minister must be appointed from the Sunni sect. Hezbollah has said it would block Mr. Hariri's reinstatement, and threatened to force new legislative elections, extending the political uncertainty, if he is chosen. The political crisis positions Mr. Assad between Iran, which with Syria has long backed Hezbollah, and the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, which back Mr. Hariri. The situation is a test of Washington's diplomatic outreach to Syria, an effort by the Obama administration to sway Damascus away from Iran's influence. Syria's relations with the U.S. soured after the 2005 assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Washington recalled its ambassador to Syria after massive demonstrations in Beirut blaming Syria for the incident, a car bombing that killed 22 people.
Those protests led to the end of Syria's 30-year military presence in Lebanon. Syria has since shown it is most likely to stand by Iran and Hezbollah. "Syria is keeping all its cards on the table but ultimately it will chose what is in its best interest—and its relations with Iran and Hezbollah are far more important than the United States," said Sami Baroudi, professor of political science at Lebanese American University. Hezbollah and Syria have both denied charges that they played a role in the assassination.  They both stand to suffer a blow to their reputations among their constituents and Arab public opinion, if they are declared complicit in Mr. Hariri's assassination, because he was among the most popular Sunni politicians in the region. Hezollah and Syria have tried to soften the impact of the allegations by discrediting the court—saying it was influenced by Israel and the U.S. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, spiritual leader of Hezbollah, said the court's findings were null and void. But the tribunal has had substantial Western backing, including from the U.S., and while Saad Hariri has said he wouldn't support the prosecution of Hezbollah members, he has refused to reject the findings. Syria and Saudi Arabia have tried for months to broker a deal between Hezbollah and Mr. Hariri, including efforts to convince Mr. Hariri to discredit the tribunal in the interest of stability. When those talks reached a dead end, the Lebanese opposition ministers resigned, dissolving the government. "The Saudi-Syrian efforts have played a positive role in maintaining truce in the country….A real opportunity to serve Lebanon that was lost," Saad Hariri said in a televised statement on Friday.Write to Farnaz Fassihi at farnaz.fassihi@wsj.com

The Middle East's Christian Onslaught .
Friday, 14 January 2011
http://www.rightsidenews.com/2011011512579/world/terrorism/the-middle-easts-christian-onslaught.html
IPT News/Church bombings kill scores in Iraq, Nigeria and Egypt. Iran rounds up dozens of Christians for allegedly being "hard-liners" who threaten the Islamic republic. An Egyptian police officer opens fire on a crowded train, targeting only the Christian passengers.
For a region that boasts of accommodating its Christian minorities, officials seem at a loss to stem the surge in violence
While many Muslims took to Coptic churches to serve as human shields as a sign of solidarity, the Egyptian government reacted defensively to Pope Benedict's call for more "effective measures" to protect Christian minorities in the region. It recalled its ambassador to the Vatican. "Egypt will not allow any non-Egyptian party to intervene in our internal affairs under any pretext," an Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman said.
Officials have tried to cast the train shooting, which killed a 71-year-old Coptic Christian man and wounded four other Copts, as the actions of a disturbed individual and not motivated by religion. "It has to do with his personal mental state," the local governor said. "It had nothing to do with the religion of his victims. He boarded the train suddenly and emptied his pistol."
But a witness claims that the gunman screamed "Allahu Akhbar" as he opened fire, and that he targeted women who were not wearing head coverings and were likely to be non Muslims.
U.S. government officials aren't saying much about what is causing the violence.
"I'd be very wary at this point about making any sweeping statements about whether what's happened in Iraq has a bearing on what's happening in other countries such as Egypt or Nigeria," State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Jan. 4. "These are all being investigated. Clearly, there are pressures on minority groups in these countries, and we would hope and expect that in – those respective governments will fully investigate these attacks and bring those responsible to justice."
Several factors may be at play, said Nina Shea, a commissioner on the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom. Part of it is perception. Christians have been oppressed in many Muslim countries for years, driving many to move to other parts of the world. But they continue to present "soft targets" for terrorists because they are associated more with the West, with the U.S. and with Jews, she said in an interview.
What is shared by the terrorists waging attacks and the government officials leading a crackdown on Christians is "the ideological belief on the part of these Islamic extremist that they are purifying the region," Shea said.
"It's a frightening phenomenon because it's just so violent," she said.
Shea is scheduled to testify Thursday before the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, which is a part of the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs.
Radical ideas promoted for years by Saudi Arabia and Iran is another factor, she said. They have penetrated Islamist thinking and are being taken up by extremists. Those ideologies are inherently supremacist and see Christians as either inferior or as a threat. In Egypt, some accept conspiracy theories that Copts are scheming to take over the country.
Finally, al-Qaida and its franchises are issuing threats specifically against Christians. Bomb-making instructions are available online and in al-Qaida's magazine Inspire. One al-Qaida-related group published a list of 50 Coptic churches last month, including the Alexandria church where a New Year's Eve attack claimed 21 lives.
Coptic Church officials said they were not warned about the threats and even some Egyptian government officials said they, too, were caught unaware. The U.S. needs to do more to share intelligence with both, Shea said.
Other than Nigeria, government reaction to the assault on Christians has been one of denial. Egypt's ambassador to the Vatican, Lamia Aly Mekhemar, told an interviewer that Christians are not being persecuted. "Persecution is a big word," she said. "In order to prove that there is persecution, you have to be very careful. This is a legal term which should not be used casually. In this sense, we do not share the views about - that our government or some governments in the area have not provided protection for the Christians in the Middle East."
Iran's ambassador to Lebanon condemned the physical attacks, but like other Islamists, blamed them on Jews. Ghazanfar Rokn-Abadi claimed his country can serve as a model for treating the religious minority.
"Some 250,000 Christians are living in Iran peacefully and safely," he said. "They enjoy full citizenship, human and political rights the same as Muslims."
National Public Radio called the recent wave of arrests in Iran "among the biggest and most coordinated." It may be fueled by concerns that Christians, who represent less than 2 percent of the Iranian population, gather to worship in private homes rather than in churches, are trying to convert Iranians. Tehran's governor described them as missionaries who have "inserted themselves into Islam like a parasite" and hinted they have ties with Britain.
Ironically, Western pressure may be the only way to stem the tide, said Walid Phares, director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. In Egypt, the bombing attack and train shooting show that the "jihadists are omnipresent across the country," he said during an appearance on Fox News.
An international effort led by the U.S. to pressure the government to do more to protect Christians would have an effect. "And the Egyptian government must respond. They are a recipient of our foreign aid," Phares said. "And they are, along with others, members of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, which intervened in other countries to protect Muslim minorities. So they should be fair on this one

Hezbollah’s coup and how to face it
Hanin Ghaddar , January 15, 2011
A poster showing Lebanese opposition leaders, Berri (L) Aoun (C) and Nasrallah, appears on a wall in Beirut on January 12, 2011 (AFP photo/JOSEPH EID).
The Hezbollah-led opposition has succeeded in toppling PM Saad Hariri’s government through constitutional means, but will it succeed in derailing the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL)?
Killing off the STL was the main objective behind last week’s events, because over months of waiting for the so-called Saudi-Syrian initiative to produce results, Hariri refused to accept Hezbollah’s demands that his government cease funding the tribunal, withdraw the Lebanese judges, and reject any indictment against Hezbollah and its members.
This is something that Hariri could never do, so now he is, according to some of the ministers who walked out of his government, unfit for office simply because he is “collaborating against the resistance,” because he felt he couldn’t sell his father’s blood for nothing. And as ridiculous as it seems, Hezbollah did not offer anything in return. It demanded more guarantees over its arms, while it constantly threatened the Lebanese with its arms, reminding us all of May 7, 2008, when it took the country to the brink of civil war.
How can this arrogance be matched? Of course, Hariri cannot surrender. The opposition is aware of this, and their ministers’ resignations were expected. That’s why no one in Lebanon seems very surprised. But the question is, what’s next? Is Hezbollah expecting that this or any further step would lead to the annulment of the STL? Probably not.
Therefore, it can only hope for a new government, with Hariri, or another Sunni leader, as a prime minister who would keep the STL and its indictments outside Lebanon’s borders. Otherwise, this crisis will go on for a very long time, and Lebanon will probably stay without a government until further notice.
If a new government is to be formed soon, Hezbollah will make sure it will be the one to deal with the STL and the indictments. But which Sunni figure would accept heading a government without the support of the Sunni community? This would be the end of their political career. And in any case, such a government could not last.
Constitutionally, Lebanon’s president must hold consultations with parliament to choose a new prime minister. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has again positioned himself as the kingmaker. He officially left the March 14 coalition in 2009, but still maintains close ties to Hariri, and his Democratic Gathering bloc could provide either March 14 or the March 8 with a majority in the legislature. This would likely impact negotiations over the new PM. Jumblatt’s stance will be revealed in a matter of days.
If he sides with March 8, giving them the majority, then Hezbollah will be in a position to form the government it wants. However, this might ignite another war between Israel and Hezbollah, the former having previously threatened any Lebanese government controlled by Hezbollah.
Another question is whether Hezbollah would resort to violence to impose more pressure. Many expect street clashes, factional violence or a return to the assassinations and bombings that occurred sporadically between 2005 and 2008. However, regional powers, including Syria, might not favor violence at this point. The Syrian regime doesn’t mind a new government, but its fragile relationship with Saudi Arabia and the West cannot afford an escalation for which it would be blamed.
Escalation might take place gradually, depending on the reaction of March 14. Today’s situation reminds us of when Hezbollah and Amal ministers walked out of the government in December 2006. The walkout was followed by an 18-month sit-in in the downtown area that ended after the May 7 clashes and the subsequent Doha agreement, which saw the creation of a national-unity government.
Today, the Doha agreement is dead, killed by a March 8 that broke the condition forbidding resignations from the cabinet. And at the same time, its statements are, so far, very clear: There will be no Doha II. This opens the country up to many possibilities if Hezbollah’s attempts to form a government of its liking fails.
Next week’s parliamentary consultations to name a new PM might give way to a better understanding of Hezbollah’s plan, if indeed there is one. Meanwhile, the STL’s indictment is reportedly going to be issued with all international powers trying to oppose Hezbollah’s coup d’état by showing more support for the court and Hariri.
Hezbollah doesn’t care about this international support, as long as it can still control Lebanon and its institutions, as it has proved many times before. The main goal is to kill the STL, at least internally, and it will not stop until it achieves this. Meanwhile, Syria is trying to benefit from the losses both March 14 and Hezbollah will endure in the coming weeks and months.
The Syrian regime would love to see the STL vanish, but it also wants to restore its role in determining Lebanon’s future, a role Hezbollah took over after the Syrian army’s withdrawal in 2005.
Internally, nothing can be done except demonstrations of more restraint and resistance from Hariri and his allies. As for international dealings and developments, one can say that the Syrians and Saudis’ partnership in dealing with the Lebanese situation has been taken over by a Saudi-French-American team, with Turkey playing a very strong role.
Lebanon will be back on the international back burner. Hezbollah and Syria will not yield easily, and Hezbollah would prefer committing suicide before being tried at the STL. Its resignation plan was preemptive but at the same time reflects a measure of fear and political bankruptcy. The party’s plan isn’t necessarily well thought-out and might just be a knee-jerk reaction to Hariri’s rejection of its demands.
If the party is on the defensive, regional powers and the West, especially the US, should take this opportunity to pressure the Syrian regime. The newly-appointed US ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, should go to Damascus with a suitcase full of demands to pressure the regime to stop meddling with Lebanon’s sovereignty and security. Furthermore, the French should not be left alone to deal with the Syrian regime. They have made many mistakes on this front before, and the US should start playing a bigger and more constructive role.
Lebanon and its fragile sovereignty are in real danger. Unless no one really cares, it cannot be left alone.
**Hanin Ghaddar is managing editor of NOW Lebanon