LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِJanuary 15/2010

Bible Of The Day
The Good News According to Matthew 14/1-13: "14:1 At that time, Herod the tetrarch heard the report concerning Jesus, 14:2 and said to his servants, “This is John the Baptizer. He is risen from the dead. That is why these powers work in him.” 14:3 For Herod had laid hold of John, and bound him, and put him in prison for the sake of Herodias, his brother Philip’s wife. 14:4 For John said to him, “It is not lawful for you to have her.” 14:5 When he would have put him to death, he feared the multitude, because they counted him as a prophet. 14:6 But when Herod’s birthday came, the daughter of Herodias danced among them and pleased Herod. 14:7 Whereupon he promised with an oath to give her whatever she should ask. 14:8 She, being prompted by her mother, said, “Give me here on a platter the head of John the Baptizer.”
14:9 The king was grieved, but for the sake of his oaths, and of those who sat at the table with him, he commanded it to be given, 14:10 and he sent and beheaded John in the prison. 14:11 His head was brought on a platter, and given to the young lady: and she brought it to her mother. 14:12 His disciples came, and took the body, and buried it; and they went and told Jesus. 14:13 Now when Jesus heard this, he withdrew from there in a boat, to a deserted place apart. When the multitudes heard it, they followed him on foot from the cities.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Canadian Statement on Dissolution of Lebanese Government/January 14/11
Beirut quiet a day after Hezbollah pullout forces collapse of Lebanon's government/By Leila Fadel& Moe Ali Nayel/January 14/11
A migraine moment for the opposition?/By: Michael Young/January 14/11
Statement by Lebanese MP, Boutros Harb/An-Nahar newspaper/January 14/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 14/11
Pope John Paul II to be Beatified May 1/Naharnet
France calls for “contact group” on Lebanon/Now Lebanon /Naharnet
Hariri meets with Turkish Prime Minister Tayep Recep Erdogan/Now Lebanon
Hariri Returns Home after Meeting Erdogan in Bid to Muster Global Support following Government Collapse/Naharnet
Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir disappointed with government resignation: Punishment Essential to Stop Assassinations/Naharnet
Battle over Nominations Rocks Lebanon: Hariri or No Hariri/Naharnet
Israel Warns Hezbollah Against Any Spillover of Violence from Lebanese Crisis/VOA
An American Ambassador To Damascus/VOA
Lebanon government crisis also shows the seeds of peace/Christian Science Monitor
Is There No Place for People Like Me in Lebanon?/Slate Magazine
Jordan urges Lebanon to avoid 'escalation'/AFP
Norquist, Lebanon and Afghanistan/American Conservative Magazine
Lieberman on Lebanon crisis: Hezbollah's attempt at extortion/Ynetnews
Lebanon 101: Why Hezbollah hates the Hariri tribunal/Christian Science Monitor
Aoun has become Hezbollah's mouthpiece? NLB/Ya Libnan
Government fall plunges Lebanon into uncertainty/The Associated Press
Lebanon opposition: Hariri will not be allowed to return as PM/Haaretz
Aoun holds talks with US and Swiss Ambassadors/iloubnan.info
Hezbollah issues ultimatum to Hariri/Ynetnews
Hariri Movement Won't Consider Alternative to Him as Leader, Sinioria Says/Bloomberg
Israel should stay out of Lebanon/Haaretz
After government collapse, Hezbollah works to get more power in Lebanon/Washington Post
Lebanese paper: UNIFIL reduced activity at southern border/Ynetnews
MP Mohammad Kabbara says only Hariri can head cabinet/Now Lebanon
Former MP Ghattas Khoury: Hariri is the only candidate for PM/Now Lebanon
MP Abbas Hashem: Hariri is unable to bear the current crisis/Now Lebanon
Lebanese Forces fires back at Mustafa Hamdan/Now Lebanon
Democratic Left Movement: Hezbollah has overthrown Doha Agreement/Now Lebanon
Aoun meets with US ambassador/Now Lebanon
MP Ammar Houri: Hariri will again be named as PM/Now Lebanon
Conflicting Reports on Indictment, Diplomat Stresses No One Can Interfere in Tribunal's Work/Naharnet
Lebanon: Political mobilization' Over the Weekend Ahead of Consultations to Name PM/Naharnet
Lebanon Crisis a Hizbullah Trick to Divert Attention from Tribunal, Israeli Opinion/Naharnet

Statement by Minister Cannon on Dissolution of Lebanese Government
(No. 19 - January 13, 2011 - 5:45 p.m. ET) The Honourable Lawrence Cannon, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement concerning the resignation of 11 members of Lebanon’s cabinet and the resulting dissolution of the country’s government:
“Despite the cabinet resignations announced yesterday, Canada continues to support a strong, independent Lebanon and the leadership of Prime Minister Saad Hariri. The people of Lebanon deserve a stable government. These resignations are an attempt to subvert a safe and secure Lebanon and cannot be tolerated.
“We urge the parties involved to work toward a solution in order to address the numerous challenges facing the Lebanese people. We also urge all political factions to exercise restraint at this time of political uncertainty. Hezbollah’s actions in bringing down the government are a clear attempt to undermine the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Canada believes that the work of the Special Tribunal should go forward so that justice can be served.”
For further information, media representatives may contact:
Lynn Meahan
Press Secretary
Office of the Minister of Foreign Affairs
613-995-1851

Pope John Paul II to be Beatified May 1
Naharnet/The pope on Friday approved a miracle attributed to Pope John Paul II's intercession and set May 1 as the date for his beatification, an event that will be a major morale boost for a church reeling from a wave of violence against Christians and fallout from the clerical sexual abuse scandal. Pope Benedict XVI declared in a decree that a French nun's recovery from Parkinson's disease was miraculous, the last step needed for the beloved pontiff's beatification. The May 1 ceremony, to be celebrated by Benedict himself, is expected to draw hundreds of thousands of pilgrims to Rome to honor one of the most popular popes of all time. A second miracle is needed for John Paul to be made a saint. Benedict put John Paul on the fast track to possible sainthood just weeks after he died in 2005, responding to the chants of "Santo Subito!" or "Sainthood immediately!" that erupted during his funeral.
Benedict waived the typical five-year waiting period before the process could begin, but he insisted that the investigation into John Paul's life be thorough so as to not leave any doubts about his virtues. The last remaining hurdle concerned the approval by Vatican-appointed panels of doctors and theologians, cardinals and bishops that the cure of French nun, Sister Marie-Simon-Pierre, was a miracle due to the intercession of John Paul. The nun has said she felt reborn when she woke up two months after John Paul died, cured of the disease that had made walking, writing and driving a car nearly impossible. She and her fellow sisters had prayed to John Paul, who also suffered from Parkinson's. Last year, there were some questions about whether Marie-Simon-Pierre's original diagnosis was correct. But in a statement Friday, the Congregation for the Causes of Saints said Vatican-appointed doctors had "scrupulously" studied the case and determined that her cure had no scientific explanation. John Paul was adored by Catholics, but he did not escape scrutiny, since many of the thousands of sexual abuse cases that emerged last year concerned crimes or cover-ups that occurred under his watch. Vatican officials have said there was nothing in John Paul's record that called into question his path to beatification.(AP) Beirut, 14 Jan 11, 14:30

Sfeir Disappointed with Government Resignation: Punishment Essential to Stop Assassinations
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir on Friday said he was disappointed with the government resignation, but stressed that "punishment is essential to stop assassinations."
"If those who carried out assassinations in Lebanon were not punished, these assassinations will continue," Sfeir was quoted as saying. "Punishment is essential to stop assassinations and deter the perpetrators," he added. Earlier Friday, Sfeir discussed latest developments with Prince Albert II of Monaco. Beirut, 14 Jan 11, 13:47

Haaretz Denies Israeli Troops on Alert
Naharnet/The Israeli daily Haaretz said that contrary to media reports, Israeli troops did not significantly increase its alert level on the northern border and did not concentrate forces there.
It said Intelligence officials during the weekly briefing with Defense Minister Ehud Barak said they did not believe the events in Beirut would have immediate implications for the situation on the border. International news agencies on Thursday quoted a senior Israeli military officer as saying thousands of troops in the north are on alert following the fall of the Lebanese government. Beirut, 14 Jan 11, 12:01

Lebanon Crisis a Hizbullah Trick to Divert Attention from Tribunal, Israeli Opinion
Naharnet/The latest political crisis in Lebanon does not threaten to spill over into Israel for the time being, Ynet News said. It said chances are that this crisis will also prevent violence within Lebanon, and this is the reason why Hizbullah quit the government.  Hizbullah wants Lebanese public opinion to be preoccupied with the task of forming a new government, thereby diverting its attention from the conclusions of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, the report added. As to Israel, it said, there were "some fears" that Hizbullah may try to divert the Lebanese public's attention from the Hariri tribunal's findings by "prompting a flare-up" on the northern border. Experience shows, the report acknowledged, that such tensions may lead to an all-out conformation, even if the sides are not interested in this. Hizbullah knows this as well, and one of the reasons it provoked a political crisis in Lebanon is its desire to avoid a violent confrontation, both within Lebanon and vis-à-vis Israel. Beirut, 14 Jan 11, 08:34

Hariri Returns Home after Meeting Erdogan in Bid to Muster Global Support following Government Collapse
Naharnet/Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri is seeking international support after Hizbullah brought down his government. On Friday Hariri discussed the political turmoil in Lebanon with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Following the talks, Hariri returned to Beirut to host lunch for Prince Albert II of Monaco. Hariri arrived in Ankara late Thursday after having met with President Barack Obama in Washington and stopped in France for a meeting with President Nicolas Sarkozy en route to Turkey. In a move led by Hizbullah, 11 ministers withdrew from Hariri's hard-won unity government Wednesday, forcing its collapse and plunging the country back into crisis. The move was linked to a long-running dispute over the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which is reportedly set to indict high-ranking Hizbullah operatives in the 2005 assassination of ex-premier Rafik Hariri, Saad's father. The resignations came after Saudi Arabia and Syria failed in their bid to find a compromise between the two rival camps. The 11 ministers withdrew from the government, formed in November 2009, at the exact moment Hariri was in Washington holding talks on the crisis with U.S. President Barack Obama. NATO member Turkey has sought a stronger role in Middle East affairs since Erdogan's Islamist-rooted party came to power in 2002. The Hizbullah- led March 8 coalition quit the government Wednesday, causing it to collapse. It is now making a bid to install an ally as prime minister. If Hizbullah succeeds, its patrons in Iran and Syria would have far more sway in that volatile corner of the Middle East — something Washington has worked to prevent, The Associated Press reported. It said that if negotiations between Hizbullah and the Western-backed bloc fail, that could rekindle street protests and violence in Lebanon. Turkey, which has built closer ties with Lebanon since participating in the Lebanon peacekeeping force after the 2006 Hizbullah-Israel war in southern Lebanon, believes it could play a role in returning stability to the region. "The stability of Lebanon is important for the stability of the region," the Anatolia news agency quoted Turkey's Foreign Minister Davutoglu as saying. "We regard all Lebanese as Turkey's friends, regardless of their political view, sect or religion." The Turkish prime minister's vociferous criticism of Israel's treatment of Palestinians has sharply raised his profile in the Islamic world. Turkey's relations with Israel hit an all-time low in May, when Israeli naval commandos killed nine activists on a Turkish aid ship that tried to breach Israel's naval blockade of Gaza.(AP-AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 14 Jan 11, 12:07

Battle over Nominations Rocks Lebanon: Hariri or No Hariri
Naharnet/March 14 and March 8 are locked in a battle over the prime minister nomination: Hariri or no Hariri. Prime Minister Saad Hariri can head the new government if he pledges to stop the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, Al-Akhbar newspaper on Friday quoted a senior Opposition official as saying. "We do not want to close the doors completely," the official said.
Hariri "could head the new government until 2013 if he pledges to terminate the plot behind the international tribunal," he added. But Damascus no longer seems interested in Hariri, pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat reported Friday.It pointed to statements made by senior Opposition officials quoting Syrian officials as saying that Damascus recommends the nomination of a "neutral" prime minister on condition he enjoys the support of both Saudi Arabia and Mustaqbal Movement, in a clear reference to former PM Najib Miqati. Al-Hayat said that Damascus' exclusion of Hariri as prime minister aims to imply that there is an intention to impose a new political reality that would push for intensified Arabic and international contacts with the Syrian leadership in order to restart negotiations – this time on a hot burner. Meanwhile, An-Nahar newspaper quoted an Opposition source as saying that Hariri can only return as prime minister under conditions. The source pointed out that the Opposition has "many" nominees for premiership – Omar Karami, Najib Miqati, Mohammed Safadi and Abdul Rahim Mrad.
"While a statement from Hariri would have been enough in the previous stage, he now has to meet a handful of conditions," one Opposition source told An-Nahar. Beirut, 14 Jan 11, 08:42

Hariri meets with Turkish Prime Minister Tayep Recep Erdogan
January 14, 2011 /Prime Minister Saad Hariri met with Turkish Prime Minister Tayep Recep Erdogan in Ankara on Friday morning for around two hours, according to a statement from Hariri’s office. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu and Hariri’s office manager Nader Hariri were present at the meeting. Hariri did not make any statement to the press afterward.
The talks covered the current Lebanese political crisis, AFP reported. Lebanon's unity government collapsed Wednesday after Hezbollah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from cabinet and one minister close to President Michel Sleiman announced his withdrawal, providing the necessary number of resignations for the government to fall.
Hezbollah and its allies have for months been pressing Hariri to disavow the Special Tribunal for Lebanon – probing the 2005 assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri – on the grounds that it is part of a US-Israeli plot that will indict Hezbollah members. Hariri is now heading a caretaker government pending the outcome of consultations due to start Monday between Sleiman and parliamentarians on the appointment of a new premier. -NOW Lebanon

France calls for “contact group” on Lebanon
January 14, 2011 /France is calling for the creation of an international "contact group" on Lebanon to negotiate a settlement to the country's latest political crisis, a European diplomat said on Friday. "The contact group would include Syria, Saudi Arabia, France, the US, Qatar, Turkey and possibly other countries with a stake in Lebanon," the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP. "The group would meet outside of Lebanon given the current tensions in the country," the diplomat added. The idea was discussed in Paris on Thursday between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Prime Minister Saad Hariri, AFP said. An-Nahar newspaper reported on Friday that Sarkozy has “received American authorization to produce a solution to the Lebanese crisis.” Saudi Arabia supports these efforts but it appears that Syria is refusing to “undertake any initiative in the direction of any solution,” the paper said, adding that the atmosphere of a recent phone call between Sarkozy and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad “was not positive.” Syria does not want to get involved in an international initiative based on the principle that justice does not contradict stability, and Damascus feels that “it is holding the cards and does not want to share them,” the report added.
Lebanon's unity government collapsed Wednesday after Hezbollah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from cabinet and one minister close to President Michel Sleiman announced his withdrawal, providing the necessary number of resignations for the government to fall. Hezbollah and its allies have for months been pressing Hariri to disavow the Special Tribunal for Lebanon – probing the 2005 assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri – on the grounds that it is part of a US-Israeli plot that will indict Hezbollah members. Hariri is now heading a caretaker government pending the outcome of consultations between President Michel Sleiman and parliamentarians on the appointment of a new premier. The consultations are due to start on Monday. -AFP/NOW Lebanon

MP Mohammad Kabbara says only Hariri can head cabinet
January 14, 2011 /Lebanon First MP Mohammad Kabbara said in an interview on Friday that Prime Minister Saad Hariri is the only one capable of heading the Lebanese government, warning against ignoring the Sunnis’ will. “No one can compromise Justice, the Martyrs or the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL).” Lebanon's unity government collapsed Wednesday after Hezbollah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from cabinet and one minister close to President Michel Sleiman announced his withdrawal, providing the necessary number of resignations for the government to fall. Hezbollah and its allies have for months been pressing Prime Minister Saad Hariri to disavow the STL – probing the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri – on the grounds that it is part of a US-Israeli plot that will indict Hezbollah members.-NOW Lebanon

former MP Ghattas Khoury: Hariri is the only candidate for PM
January 14, 2011 /“[Prime Minister Saad] Hariri is considered the only candidate for the premiership,” Hariri’s advisor former MP Ghattas Khoury said on Friday. March 8 forces’ talk about naming someone else is simply for pressure that aims to “impose conditions on Hariri,” Khoury told AFP, adding that he thinks it unlikely that anyone else will be named for the position. Hariri has been asked to disavow the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) and now it is being demanded that he make even larger concessions, but “this will not happen,” Khoury said. Lebanon's unity government collapsed Wednesday after Hezbollah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from cabinet and one minister close to President Michel Sleiman announced his withdrawal, providing the necessary number of resignations for the government to fall. Hezbollah and its allies have for months been pressing Hariri to disavow the Special Tribunal for Lebanon – probing the 2005 assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri – on the grounds that it is part of a US-Israeli plot that will indict Hezbollah members. Hariri is now heading a caretaker government pending the outcome of consultations due to start Monday between Sleiman and parliamentarians on the appointment of a new premier.
-NOW Lebanon/AFP

LF fires back at Mustafa Hamdan
January 14, 2011 /“As usual, retired General Mustafa Hamdan – a suspect in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri […] – is criminally defaming the Lebanese Forces [LF] and their head Samir Geagea,” the LF said in a statement on Friday. The LF is compelled to bring a lawsuit against Hamdan for comments he made to New TV on Thursday, the statement added. Hamdan was one of four top security officials detained from 2005 to 2009 in the international investigation into Rafik Hariri’s assassination.-NOW Lebanon

Democratic Left Movement: Hezbollah has overthrown Doha Agreement
January 14, 2011 /The resignation of March 8 ministers is an “advanced step in the coup project” and means that Hezbollah has “finally overthrown the Doha [Agreement’s] compromise,” the Democratic Left Movement said in a statement on Friday. The statement added that the announcement of the resignations from Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun’s Rabieh residence “reveals that Hezbollah did not hesitate to use General Aoun’s conceited and inflated condition. Some in his circle are spreading rumors that he agreed in Doha to limit President Michel Sleiman’s term to only two years.” Lebanon's unity government collapsed Wednesday after Hezbollah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from cabinet and one minister close to President Michel Sleiman announced his withdrawal, providing the necessary number of resignations for the government to fall.
Hezbollah and its allies have for months been pressing Hariri to disavow the Special Tribunal for Lebanon – probing the 2005 assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri – on the grounds that it is part of a US-Israeli plot that will indict Hezbollah members. Hariri is now heading a caretaker government pending the outcome of consultations due to start Monday between Sleiman and parliamentarians on the appointment of a new premier. -NOW Lebanon

Aoun meets with US ambassador
January 14, 2011 /Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun and Energy Minister Gebran Bassil met with US Ambassador to Lebanon Maura Connelly in Rabieh on Monday, according to the National News Agency (NNA). Aloun also met with Swiss Ambassador to Lebanon Rose Flint, the report said. -NOW Lebanon

MP Abbas Hashem: Hariri is unable to bear the current crisis
January 14, 2011 /“We respect Saad Hariri’s wish regarding his inability to bear the current political crisis, knowing that he has previously stated that he does not hold fast to the premiership,” Change and Reform bloc MP Abbas Hashem said on Friday. The next prime minister must “enjoy a sound national sensibility and believe that the time has come for Lebanon to turn from a card on the table of regional and international negotiations into a state living with dignity and vigor,” Hashem told AFP. March 8 forces will meet on Sunday to decide on their position for consultations to name the next prime minister, he added. Lebanon's unity government collapsed Wednesday after Hezbollah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from cabinet and one minister close to President Michel Sleiman announced his withdrawal, providing the necessary number of resignations for the government to fall.
Hezbollah and its allies have for months been pressing Hariri to disavow the Special Tribunal for Lebanon – probing the 2005 assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri – on the grounds that it is part of a US-Israeli plot that will indict Hezbollah members. Hariri is now heading a caretaker government pending the outcome of consultations due to start Monday between Sleiman and parliamentarians on the appointment of a new premier.-NOW Lebanon/AFP

MP Ammar Houri: Hariri will again be named as PM
January 14, 2011 /Lebanon First bloc MP Ammar Houri said on Friday that Prime Minister Saad Hariri will be renamed as premier “no matter what the March 8 coalition’s will is.”
He told the Voice of Lebanon (100.5) radio that Speaker Nabih Berri, Democratic Gathering bloc leader MP Walid Jumblatt and the Armenian bloc will nominate Hariri.
Lebanon's unity government collapsed Wednesday after Hezbollah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from cabinet and one minister close to President Michel Sleiman announced his withdrawal, providing the necessary number of resignations for the government to fall. Hezbollah and its allies have for months been pressing Hariri to disavow the Special Tribunal for Lebanon – probing the 2005 assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri – on the grounds that it is part of a US-Israeli plot that will indict Hezbollah members. -NOW Lebanon

Beirut quiet a day after Hezbollah pullout forces collapse of Lebanon's government
By Leila Fadel and Moe Ali Nayel/Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, January 13, 2011
BEIRUT- The Lebanese capital was largely quiet on Thursday, one day after the collapse of the country's government, as President Michel Suleiman took the first step towards putting together a new administration.
Suleiman asked the government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri to continue in a caretaker role after the Shiite group Hezbollah and its allies resigned Wednesday, toppling the governing coalition. Hariri , who met Wednesday at the White House with President Obama, had not yet returned from his overseas trip
Tensions have been growing for months over the impending indictments from a U.N.-backed tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri, father of the current prime minister.
It is widely believed that the indictments, expected in draft form this month, will implicate members of the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite militant group.
On Wednesday, 11 cabinet ministers from the Shiite group and its allies resigned in protest over the government's failure to denounce the expected indictments. Their resignations toppled the government.
The indictments could spark sectarian clashes in Lebanon, a mixed Arab nation of Christians and Sunni and Shiite Muslims. The situation could destabilize this key Middle Eastern nation, a U.S. ally that has become a regional battleground, pitting Saudi Arabia and its Western supporters against Iran and Syria.
The stakes are high for the United States. Hariri is Washington's strongest ally in Lebanon, but his faction has slowly withered as Hezbollah, backed by Syria and Iran, has grown in strength and popularity.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who was in Qatar for talks with Persian Gulf leaders, delivered a forceful rebuke of Hezbollah's move, calling it an "abdication of responsibility."
"We view what happened today as a transparent effort by those forces inside Lebanon, as well as interests outside Lebanon, to subvert justice and undermine Lebanon's stability and progress," she said at a news conference.
Clinton, who was joined at the news conference by Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim - whose own government had sought to mediate between rival Lebanese factions - noted that Hezbollah had initially acceded to the U.N.-led investigation of the Hariri assassination. She warned that attempts to derail the tribunal's effort "will not work."
"This tribunal is a creation of the U.N. Security Council, and it is supported by many governments, including my own," she said. "Its work will continue."
A regional battleground
The U.N. tribunal has indicated that members of Hezbollah will be charged in the bombing on Beirut's waterfront that killed Hariri and 22 others. But Hezbollah has denied any role and has dubbed the tribunal an "Israeli project."
"It's clear the opposition is trying to work through the constitution," said Wafic Kanso, a pro-opposition journalist with the left-leaning Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar. The resignations were "an expected step from the opposition after giving so many chances to [Hariri's party]."
While Hezbollah's withdrawal from the governing coalition is dramatic, Obama administration officials say it may have little immediate effect. It will probably be several days before Lebanon's president officially dissolves the government, and one senior administration official said it is "likely" that Hariri will remain acting prime minister for the foreseeable future.
The official said Hezbollah's departure reflects the movement's fear over the impending indictments. "We reject the false choice between justice and stability," the official said. "The Lebanese people deserve both."
At their Washington meeting, according to a White House statement, Obama and Hariri "specifically discussed united efforts with France, Saudi Arabia, and other key international and regional actors to maintain calm in Lebanon and ensure that the work of the Tribunal continues unimpeded by third parties."
The government crisis came a day after Saudi Arabia and Syria failed to reach an agreement to defuse tensions over the tribunal.
The Obama administration believed that Saudi efforts to head off a government crisis in Lebanon were promising. But their failure, administration officials said, reflects in part Syria's enduring concern over the tribunal's work. Syria has long used Hezbollah to exert its influence in Lebanon and against Israel, which occupies the Golan Heights, once held by Syria.
"Syria wants to have it both ways - to build relationships in the West and yet meddle in Lebanon," the senior official said. "I think they are going to hear a very clear message from the French, from us, and from others in the Arab world that that cannot be the case."
Hezbollah's next move
Hezbollah, an armed Shiite Muslim movement that also has a stake in the government, has turned to its arsenal before at delicate political times. But administration officials do not expect that it will do so this time.
"They are playing a longer game to some degree, and at the moment I don't know if confrontation would serve their interests or those of their Iranian patrons," the senior official said.
Officials from Hezbollah could not be reached for comment on Wednesday.
In 2006, Israel waged a devastating war against Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon, leveling much of the southern part of the country and the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Gebran Basil, Lebanon's Christian energy minister, announced the resignations Wednesday night and asked the president to form a new government on behalf of the March 8 Alliance, a coalition of parties that includes Hezbollah and makes up the opposition against Hariri's Future Movement, according to the National News Agency, a state-owned outlet.
Basil said he made the statement after Hariri did not agree to demands for an emergency cabinet meeting to discuss the tribunal. The March 8 Alliance is generally viewed as pro-Syrian
"There is more tension, and we are at a very critical point. Definitely this may entail some security problems," said Mustafa Alloush, a member of the political bureau of the Future Movement. He said Hariri will return to Beirut after meeting with President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris. "The crisis is already here and has been here for a long time. We are always worried about security in a country like Lebanon with an armed militia inside it. We are ready for all possibilities."
Lebanon has lived through a series of crises since Hariri's killing, including car bombings that targeted political leaders and sectarian fights in the streets in 2008, when Hezbollah showed its military might by taking over central Beirut briefly before standing down.
Residents of Beirut were already preparing for the worst on Wednesday, some packing up and traveling north in case of another flare-up. Others heralded Hezbollah's strength in the face of the indictments.
Mustapha, a businessman who asked to be identified only by his first name, said he called his wife to tell her they may be heading north soon. He closed two of his stores because of bad business and prayed that there would be no clashes.
"I personally don't want to know the truth anymore, and Saad Hariri should drop it - there is no point," he said. "Even if the indictments are issued, who will do the arrests? We don't know who to believe anymore. The country was dysfunctional while there was a national unity government, and now it is toppled and the country is dysfunctional and dangerous."
Staff writers Joby Warrick in Doha, Qatar, and Scott Wilson in Washington contributed to this report.

Boutros Harb
January 14, 2011
On January 14, An-Nahar newspaper carried the following report:
This is a long story and there will be no imminent solution for the political crisis. The solution requires extraordinary circumstances to mature, or else we will return to the current formula because the replacement of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri is an impossibility. It is with this introduction that Minister of Labor Boutros Harb summarized to An-Nahar yesterday the domestic situation, in light of the dramatic political developments generated by the resignation of the opposition ministers from the government of national concord. He stated that the international parties were interested in seeing Prime Minister Al-Hariri more powerful, “although his exit from the government makes him so.”
From his office at the Cabinet headquarters in the vicinity of the National Museum, Harb had entered the caretaker stage even before the issuance of the presidential decree, at a time when the Arab Labor conference will be held in March in Beirut, for the first time in half a century. He said in this regard that coordination was ongoing with the organization abroad based on the developments which will affect the domestic situation, saying: “If we detect any threats, we might seek an alternative…” But how does he describe the step of the opposition ministers? He states: “They have obstructed the government and the indictment will be issued. This means they have obstructed whichever agreement [that might have been reached]. What did they gain? Nothing. Who will they talk to after the issuance of the indictment?”
In this context, Harb refused to dictate the constitutional measures which the president of the republic should adopt, assuring: “This is unacceptable since it would turn the president of the country into a programmed machine and prevents him from exercising the discretionary prerogatives granted to him by the constitution in dealing with the events.” He indicated that President Michel Sleiman was the only one fully entitled to define the date of the parliamentary consultations based on the country’s circumstances, but also to define whether these consultations should be urgent or slow, long or short, denying the existence of a constitutional text pinpointing the deadline during which the consultations should be conducted following the government’s resignation.
He believed that any interference at this level would be an attempt to violate the prerogatives of the president of the republic “knowing that this has always prevailed over the relations between the president and the March 8 forces, and especially the relations with General (Michel) Aoun that were filled with practices attempting to violate the prerogatives of President Sleiman.” As proof of that, he recalled the conditions imposed by Aoun during the formation of the government of national concord over a year ago, especially in regard to the way the government should be formed, the allocation of the portfolios and his personal announcement of the names of the ministers who will participate in the government. [He continued that Aoun] also tried to impose on the president the issues that should be presented for voting – thus eliminating the president’s discretionary right – as was seen in the false witnesses case.
“This raises question marks in regard to the ways to combine the slogans related to the enhancement of the president’s prerogatives, and the attempts to diminish them and undermine them. The political forces, even if they enjoy a certain parliamentary representation or a parliamentary majority, cannot consequently force the president of the country to exercise his prerogatives based on their wishes. The prerogatives granted by the constitution to the president of the republic should be respected.” Asked whether or not there were any security fears vis-à-vis a future action by the opposition forces, he said he was surprised that the March 8 forces were still being referred to as “the opposition forces,” considering that the “opposition is usually present along with the government. The opposition opposes political powers in a certain government. However, it is illogical for it to oppose a government in which it is a partner.
“The March 8 forces committed a mistake when they resigned from the government. They acted rashly because what is feared by the opposition becomes easier to achieve in the absence of a government and national dialogue…” He thus believed that the government’s resignation did not resolve the false witnesses issue or the affairs of the people “since it will rather push toward further obstruction, will have a negative impact on the economy and will increase the concerns of the people. This will generate negative national and social repercussions, at a time when the March 8 team will not benefit from anything except the revival of the hopes of some to secure unreasonable ‘political reforms.’”
He added that the confrontation of the post-indictment stage will be more difficult in the absence of a government “which could have unified the internal ranks in the face of this event, and could have dealt with it in a consensual climate if it turns out that its content does not go in line with the objective regulations in this case.”

A migraine moment for the opposition?
Michael Young,
January 14, 2011
Now Lebanon
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad; and Lebanon's Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Damascus in early 2010. The three may have gambled when orchestrating the Lebanese opposition walkout this week. (AFP photo/SANA)
Did the opposition fall into a trap by bringing down the government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri? Did the United States, in aborting a Saudi-Syrian understanding that might have led Lebanon to break off its ties with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, push Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, and their allies into taking a decision they will regret?
Perhaps not, but it’s difficult to discern what definite advantages Syria and Hezbollah are likely to derive from their risky decision.
Let’s begin with Syria. For nearly six years, its strategy in Lebanon has been to re-impose Syrian hegemony over the country, after the military withdrawal in the aftermath of Rafik Hariri’s assassination. And for two years, following the Syrian-Saudi reconciliation at an Arab economic summit in Kuwait, Syria’s regime has worked on gaining Saudi approval for a political return to Lebanon. Syria did little to mobilize its partisans against Saad Hariri and March 14 during the 2009 elections, and the quid pro quo was that if Hariri became prime minister, he would be delivered to Damascus by the Saudis.
That’s precisely what happened. Since then, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has benefited from the backing of King Abdullah to reassert Syrian power in Beirut, on the assumption that better an Arab country dominating the Lebanese than Iran and Hezbollah. What remains of the contract today? The Saudis are breaking speed records in distancing themselves from any effort to undermine the Special Tribunal. Even within the Saudi leadership there appear to have been disagreements over the merits of a deal with Syria, as this brought Riyadh absolutely nothing of what it sought in Iraq, when Syria endorsed the re-nomination of Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister.
Some might say that Syria is on the cusp of forming an obedient Lebanese government, regaining much of what it lost in 2005. If Hariri refuses to become prime minister, or abandons the attempt after a period of trying to do so unsuccessfully, because he realizes the opposition will deny him a cabinet in which he is strong, Damascus and Hezbollah will endeavor to form their own, under a loyal Sunni.
However, there are serious disadvantages here. Syria will be in the forefront of the action, responsible before the international community for whatever goes wrong in Lebanon, even though Iran is the more commanding outside decision-maker. Assad and Hezbollah also need to invent a credible Sunni to head their government. That won’t be easy if the primary purpose of the new team will be to break off Beirut’s relations with the Special Tribunal set up to uncover Rafik Hariri’s killers. The Sunni community will be outraged, and Damascus will have to manage the consequences alone.
True, Syria will be able to appoint its people to senior government and security posts, but Hezbollah already controls the commanding heights of the state. Assad’s main challenge will be less to take over key positions from the relatively feeble March 14 coalition than to do so from his own allies. If the ultimate aim is to start arresting figures from the majority and suffocate Lebanese pluralism, as Hugo Chavez has tried in Venezuela, then this could be a recipe for civil war.
And how convincing would such a government be internationally? Syria always benefited from a Hariri façade in its past governments, particularly on financial matters. Does anyone seriously think that one led by Syria and Hezbollah would generate economic confidence? It would be just as naïve to assume that Lebanon would emerge a winner politically and economically if this government kicked off its mandate by defying the international community over the Special Tribunal. A Syria-Hezbollah governing team formed against Hariri and the Sunnis is a train wreck waiting to happen.
It is equally improbable that Hezbollah will come out of the situation reinforced. The party was hoping to bully Hariri into endorsing measures to cripple the Special Tribunal, and declare to the world that the Lebanese were united in their rejection of the institution. Instead, that approach collapsed resoundingly, March 14 is in a fighting mood, and anything Hezbollah does against the tribunal will stink of a cover-up and enjoy no legitimacy in Lebanon, the region or internationally. This could be calamitous for a party that purports to represent a national resistance, particularly if or when it finds itself in a conflict with Israel with a furious Sunni community to its rear.
The danger is that Syria, Iran and their Lebanese allies recognize all this, but will decide that the only alternative is to push all the way and organize a far-reaching coup to politically eliminate their rivals. This will surely backfire, but don’t ask authoritarian governments and parties to respect the subtle trip wires of Lebanese sectarianism.
Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and their lesser partners have gambled in toppling the Hariri government. Blocking the Special Tribunal is one thing, but seizing control of the state is something entirely different. For months Hezbollah had sought to attain the first objective, but now may find itself achieving the second, with a monstrous baby to feed: upholding a government of dubious authority against the international community; opposed by a large segment of Lebanese society; and dealing with a tribunal pursuing its work unhindered.
But are we missing something? Could this be a Syrian gambit to bolster its power in Lebanon, at the expense of all sides, including its Hezbollah and Iranian comrades? It’s too early to tell. But there is much more to the situation than meets the eye. There always is.
Michael Young is opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut and author of the recent The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle (Simon & Schuster).