LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِJanuary 14/2010

Bible Of The Day
The Good News According to John 3/2736
3:27 John answered, “A man can receive nothing, unless it has been given him from heaven. 3:28 You yourselves testify that I said, ‘I am not the Christ,’ but, ‘I have been sent before him.’ 3:29 He who has the bride is the bridegroom; but the friend of the bridegroom, who stands and hears him, rejoices greatly because of the bridegroom’s voice. This, my joy, therefore is made full. 3:30 He must increase, but I must decrease. 3:31 He who comes from above is above all. He who is from the earth belongs to the earth, and speaks of the earth. He who comes from heaven is above all. 3:32 What he has seen and heard, of that he testifies; and no one receives his witness. 3:33 He who has received his witness has set his seal to this, that God is true. 3:34 For he whom God has sent speaks the words of God; for God gives the Spirit without measure. 3:35 The Father loves the Son, and has given all things into his hand. 3:36 One who believes in the Son has eternal life, but one who disobeys the Son won’t see life, but the wrath of God remains on him.”

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
New Opinion: Another act of blackmail/Now Lebanon/January 13/11
Amid stalemate, let negotiations begin!/By Michael Young/ January 13/11
Cabinet collapse part of bigger campaign/By Michael Bluhm/January 13/11
Time for Lebanese to re-think stances/Daily Star/January 13/11
Resignations Deepen Crisis for Lebanon/New York Times/January 13/11
What's next for Lebanon?/By Ben Gilbert/January 13/11
Neutrality will not shield Sweden from terrorism/by Walid Phares/ January 13/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 13/11
Analyst Predicts Prolonged Crisis for Lebanon that is Likely to Spiral into Violence/Naharnet
British Dailies Warn of Renewed War, Say Cabinet Collapse Worrying for Entire Mideast/Naharnet
Clinton: When Israel Pulled Out of Lebanon it Got Hizbullah and 40,000 Rockets/Naharnet
Sfeir Hopes Situation Won't Spill over into Street Violence/Naharnet
Eyes Turned to March 8's Choice of PM as Suleiman Asks Cabinet to Act as Caretaker/Naharnet
Israel watching Lebanon crisis carefully/Now Lebanon
Britain Says Hizbullah Withdrawal 'Extremely Serious'/Naharnet
Ban Urges Lebanese to Maintain Dialogue, Reiterates Support for STL/Naharnet
Italy Urges Lebanese not to be Dragged to Violence/Naharnet
Thousands of Israeli Troops on Alert after Lebanon Government Collapsed/Naharnet
EU: Political Actors Should Work Constructively to Seek Negotiated Solution/Naharnet
Iran: U.S., Israel Responsible for Lebanon Government Collapse/Naharnet
U.S. Diplomatic Source to Naharnet: Hizbullah Practicing Blackmail, No Other Party is Threatening Violence/Naharnet
Hizbullah move to thwart Special Tribunal will not work: Clinton/Daily Star
Uncertainty grips Lebanon/Daily Star
Government crisis prompts mixed public reaction/Daily Star
Capital market first victim of Cabinet resignation/Daily Star
Hariri Camp Backs UN Probe as Hezbollah Fells Cabinet/BusinessWeek
Israel troops on alert after Lebanon govt falls/Washington Post
Jumblatt: Too early to name Democratic Gathering bloc’s PM choice/Now Lebanon
Consultations for new premier to begin/Now Lebanon
Jordan urges Lebanon to avoid “escalation”/Now Lebanon
Raad says next premier should have career of “national resistance”/Now Lebanon
Zahra: No Substitute for Hariri/Naharnet
Qahwaji Rules Out Sectarian Strife: Army Fully Prepared to Curb Tension/Naharnet
Egypt Calls on Lebanese Parties to Exercise 'Restraint', Keep Dialogue Door Open/Naharnet
Crowley: Too Early to See if Hariri Could Form New Government/Naharnet
U.S. Official: Washington to Tell Syria that Ties with U.S. will Suffer if It Harms Lebanon/Naharnet
Republican Lawmaker Calls for 'Robust' Support for STL/Naharnet
Harb on Behalf of March 14: Opposition Ministers' Resignation Has Complicated Matters Further/Naharnet
U.S. Insistence on STL Backfired on Lebanon, Expert/Naharnet
Sarkozy Calls Assad, Voices Support for 'Lebanese Authorities, Institutions'/Naharnet
Qatari PM: We're Not Thinking of 'Doha 2', But of Activating 'Doha 1', Taef Accord/Naharnet
Britain Says Hizbullah Withdrawal 'Extremely Serious'/Naharnet
Ban Urges Lebanese to Maintain Dialogue, Reiterates Support for STL/Naharnet
 

Clinton: When Israel Pulled Out of Lebanon it Got Hizbullah and 40,000 Rockets
Naharnet/U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Thursday that Israel was cautious in making peace with the Palestinians because of its bad experience with Hizbullah and Hamas.
Clinton acknowledged the limits of U.S. power in a combative exchange with an Al-Jazeera reporter, saying, "We can't stop a lot of countries from doing things that we disagree with and we speak out against." In the Qatari capital of Doha for a regional development conference, Clinton was asked why Arab countries should listen to her criticism when the U.S. can't even get its longtime ally, Israel, to make peace with the Palestinians. "Israel is a sovereign country and it makes its own decisions," Clinton responded. "I wish there were a way we could tell a lot of countries what they should do because there are a lot of countries doing things that are not in the best interests of their own people, their neighbors or the world," she added. Clinton pointed out that Israel has reasons to be cautious. "You often make decisions based on your own experience and history," she said. "And when the Israelis pulled out of Lebanon they got Hizbullah and 40,000 rockets and when they pulled out of Gaza they got Hamas and 20,000 rockets." Still, she said, the U.S. will continue to work toward achieving a separate state for the Palestinians. "We have spent a lot of time and we will continue to spend a lot of time working to build enough confidence on both sides that they can make decisions that will by necessity mean compromises," the secretary said.(AP-Naharnet) Beirut, 13 Jan 11, 13:26

Sfeir Hopes Situation Won't Spill over into Street Violence
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir on Thursday urged commitment to the Constitution, stressing that Lebanon stability was most important. "Unless the alternative government will stand in a spirit of solidarity and keenness for the country's fate to confront future perils, Lebanon is prone, God forbid, to serious split," Sfeir was quoted as telling visitors.
Sfeir expressed hope that the situation will not spill over into street violence and that political bickering will stop. Beirut, 13 Jan 11, 13:14

Eyes Turned to March 8's Choice of PM as Suleiman Asks Cabinet to Act as Caretaker
Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman met with Speaker Nabih Berri on Thursday to set a date for consultations with MPs in the aftermath of the collapse of the government and after asking it to continue in a caretaker capacity pending the formation of a new government. According to article 69 of the constitution, the 14-month-old cabinet is now considered resigned after more than one third of its ministers walked out -- 10 from the March 8 coalition and a minister loyal to Suleiman. An Nahar daily said that the president is waiting for Prime Minister Saad Hariri's return to Beirut to issue the decree accepting the ministers' resignation. However, the presidency issued a statement on Thursday asking the cabinet to stay on in a caretaker capacity until a new government is formed. "In line with clause one of article 69 in the Lebanese constitution on the circumstances under which the government is considered to have resigned ... and as the government has lost more than one third of its members ... his Excellency ... has requested the cabinet act as a caretaker government until the formation of a new government," read the statement released by Suleiman's office. Suleiman should later issue a decree setting a date for binding consultations with MPs on the appointment of a new prime minister. The president discussed the issue with Berri on Thursday. "The atmosphere is good," he told reporters at Baabda palace before his meeting with Suleiman. Media reports said Syrian President Bashar Assad telephoned his Lebanese counterpart to discuss the political situation.  The immediate trigger for the withdrawal from the cabinet was the failure of talks between Syria and Saudi Arabia to try to find a solution to the Lebanese crisis that erupted over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. "This cabinet has become a burden on the Lebanese, unable to do its work," Jebran Bassil, who resigned his post as energy minister, said at a news conference, flanked by the other ministers who stepped down. "We are giving a chance for another government to take over," he said. As Safir daily on Thursday was not optimistic about Suleiman's ability to form a new government quickly. It said the reasons that led to the collapse of the government will hinder the process of cabinet formation if a political understanding was not reached on how to deal with the indictment that will be issued by the tribunal.
Opposition sources told As Safir that the March 8 forces will not name Hariri as premier during consultations with Suleiman. "He has become part of the problem," they said.
The sources expected Syria to have the upper hand in deciding the name of the new premier. However, the March 14 forces are holding onto Hariri as premier. He is expected to get the largest numbers of backers given that he heads the largest bloc in parliament, but he could not build a coalition again without appealing to Hizbullah and its allies. Beirut, 13 Jan 11, 08:30

Israel watching Lebanon crisis carefully
January 13, 2011 /Israel is carefully watching developments in Lebanon, where the government collapsed after Hezbollah ministers walked out, a senior government official told AFP on Thursday. The crisis erupted on Wednesday after Hezbollah and its allies resigned from cabinet in protest over a UN probe into the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. "This crisis is an internal Lebanese issue. But we are following everything that is happening with vigilance," the official said, adding that Israel was "clearly opposed to any escalation" in the situation along the northern border. His comments echoed remarks by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who said on Wednesday that Israel is "vigilantly following the situation in Lebanon." Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who is currently meeting Greek leaders in Athens, described Hezbollah's sudden withdrawal from the government as an attempt to "blackmail" the international community in order to prevent the publication of results of the UN inquiry, in a statement from him issued by his office.Most Israeli commentators said they were confident Hezbollah would refrain from using the crisis as an excuse to start a confrontation with Israel.-AFP/NOW Lebanon

EU: Political Actors Should Work
Naharnet/Constructively to Seek Negotiated Solution
European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton called on Thursday for a negotiated solution to Lebanon's political crisis after the government collapsed with the withdrawal of Hizbullah. "I am concerned by the situation in Lebanon. I want to reiterate our support for the government of national unity," Ashton said in a statement. "I call on all political actors to work constructively to seek a negotiated solution to the current situation," she said. "Dialogue and stability are essential to respond to (Wednesday's) events in the interest of the Lebanese people."
Prime Minister Saad Hariri's 14-month-old government collapsed Wednesday after Hizbullah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from the cabinet. An 11th minister close to President Michel Suleiman also quit the 30-member cabinet, providing the minimum number of resignations required to topple the government.(AFP) Beirut, 13 Jan 11, 10:51

New Opinion: Another act of blackmail
January 13, 2011 /Now Lebanon
Wednesday’s cabinet walkout led by March 8 ministers is the latest outrageous setback, both to Lebanon’s bid to build an independent, sovereign and democratic nation as well as its quest for justice and respect for the rule of law. This time the objective is to destroy, at any cost, even to the country, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which is likely to indict members of Hezbollah in the killing of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
It is a political battle that has raged since the murder of Hariri, whose death on February 14, 2005 led not only to the Independence Intifada and the departure of Syrian troops after a three-decade presence, but also to the creation of the STL, the court mandated to bring to justice not only Hariri’s killers, but those of other, subsequent victims of political violence. The former may have given Lebanon hope, but it is the latter that in recent years has dominated the political landscape and sapped the energy of the Lebanese people.
It is not the first time that the opposition has walked out of the government. On November 13, 2006, as Lebanon was licking its wounds after a terrible month-long war with Israel, March 8 politicians also resigned before a cabinet debate on the tribunal. Seventeen days later, and for the next 18 months, opposition protestors laid siege to the Beirut Central District in a bid to topple what was left of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s administration. The state could not risk removing the protestors by force because of the ever-present threat of violent retaliation.
Since then, Lebanon has endured an attempted coup – when, on May 8, 2008, Hezbollah-led gunmen overran Beirut – and has had to overcome other obstacles to constitutional harmony that have been thrown in its path, such as delays in electing a president and forming a government. Even at the cabinet level, the day-to-day running of the country has been squeezed by an opposition hell bent on smothering the work of the so-called national-unity government.
And for what? Every single move the opposition March 8 bloc has made has been predicated on disruption: disrupting the pursuit of justice, disrupting attempts to create a country in which the right to carry weapons is reserved for the army and security forces, and disrupting Lebanon’s bid to make sovereign decisions.
And for whom? Only a blinkered fool would claim that March 8 has Lebanon’s best interests at heart. Since it was forced to leave Lebanon in the wake of the 2005 Independence Intifada, the Syrian regime has, through its allies in March 8, clawed back a major portion of the influence it once wielded. Meanwhile, Iran, via its military proxy Hezbollah, has what is arguably its most powerful asset in its bid for regional domination.
Iran may have a loyal ally in Damascus. It may have groomed Shia cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr in Iraq, and it may control the strings of Hamas in Gaza, but Hezbollah and its highly disciplined military wing is the jewel in the Iranian crown and the entity that creates most concern both in Lebanon and the region. No wonder it has steadfastly refused to disarm or cooperate with the STL. Many Lebanese will have woken up this morning so sick to the back teeth by the antics of an entire political class that appears to have lost its way, that they will not have the goodwill to consider who is right and who is wrong in all this mess. They will be fed up, and rightly so. But the priority today is to ensure that the STL must not be sacrificed at the altar of concession. As Labor Minister Boutros Harb said on Wednesday, “We are open to dialogue that is not at the expense of justice,” and it is this mantra that should define the upcoming negotiations on the forming of a new government. Many of us who took to the streets on the day that eventually gave its name to the political grouping have also felt let down by March 14’s internal bickering and its inability to consolidate the gains it so dearly won. But it is surely fair to say that it is the bloc most committed to creating the country in which most of us would like to live, a country that eventually can be a beacon of democracy, justice and the rule of law. To achieve this we must not blink in the face of this latest act of blackmail. To do so would be to dishonor those who have died for a better Lebanon.

Raad says next premier should have career of “national resistance”
January 13, 2011 /Loyalty to the Resistance bloc leader MP Mohammad Raad said on Thursday that the next cabinet should be headed by someone who has “a career of national resistance.”“The country is passing through a delicate situation…we hope to resolve [the impasse] in order to protect Lebanon and empower it against foreign interference,” the National News Agency quoted Raad as saying following a meeting with former President Emile Lahoud. “We are consulting with all parties and we are certainly keen to hold talks with the parties who have an experience in protecting Lebanon.” “The resignation of March 8 ministers surprised everyone and brought down what [others] were plotting,” he added.
Lebanon's unity government collapsed Wednesday after Hezbollah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from cabinet and one minister close to President Michel Sleiman announced his withdrawal, providing the necessary number of resignations for the government to collapse. Hezbollah and its allies have for months been pressing Prime Minister Saad Hariri to disavow the Special Tribunal for Lebanon – probing the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri – on the grounds that it is part of a US-Israeli plot that will indict Hezbollah members.
-NOW Lebanon

Consultations for new premier to begin Monday, says Berri
January 13, 2011 /Following his meeting with President Michel Sleiman at the Baabda Presidential Palace on Thursday, Speaker Nabih Berri said that the consultations to name a new premier will begin Monday at noon, the National News Agency (NNA) reported. The meeting with Sleiman was very good, he added. Lebanon's unity government collapsed Wednesday after Hezbollah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from cabinet and one minister close to Sleiman announced his withdrawal. Hezbollah and its allies have for months been pressing Prime Minister Saad Hariri to disavow the Special Tribunal for Lebanon – probing the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri – on the grounds that it is part of a US-Israeli plot that will indict Hezbollah members.-NOW Lebanon

Jordan urges Lebanon to avoid “escalation”
January 13, 2011 /Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh on Thursday called for restraint in Lebanon after the collapse of its government, urging all parties to avoid an “escalation” of the crisis. “Jordan is closely following the developments in Lebanon, urging restraint and calling on all Lebanese to avoid an escalation,” the minister was quoted as saying by the state-run Petra news agency. Judeh, who is currently in the Qatari capital Doha, said his country backed "Lebanese national unity, security and stability."
"I hope the Lebanese people will responsibly deal with the situation in line with their national interests and in accordance with the constitution to preserve their country and regional stability," he said. Lebanon's unity government collapsed Wednesday after Hezbollah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from cabinet and one minister close to President Michel Sleiman announced his withdrawal, providing the necessary number of resignations for the government to collapse. Hezbollah and its allies have for months been pressing Prime Minister Saad Hariri to disavow the Special Tribunal for Lebanon – probing the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri – on the grounds that it is part of a US-Israeli plot that will indict Hezbollah members.-AFP/NOWLebanon

Jumblatt: Too early to name Democratic Gathering bloc’s PM choice
January 13, 2011 /Democratic Gathering bloc leader MP Walid Jumblatt told AFP on Thursday that it is too early to say whom the bloc will nominate for the country’s premiership.
"When the consultations on naming a new premier begin, we'll see." Lebanon's unity government collapsed Wednesday after Hezbollah and its allies pulled their 10 ministers from cabinet and one minister close to President Michel Sleiman announced his withdrawal, providing the necessary number of resignations for the government to fall.Hezbollah and its allies have for months been pressing Prime Minister Saad Hariri to disavow the Special Tribunal for Lebanon – probing the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri – on the grounds that it is part of a US-Israeli plot that will indict Hezbollah members. -AFP/NOW Lebanon

Zahra: No Substitute for Hariri
Naharnet/Lebanese Forces MP Antoine Zahra on Thursday said there is no substitute for Prime Minister Saad Hariri.
"There is no substitute for PM Saad Hariri to head the Lebanese government in the next phase because he enjoys an overwhelming support from the majority of Sunnis," Zahra told AL-Arabiya television channel. He said Lebanon would be faced with a new problem if a candidate failed to enjoy the support of his sect. Beirut, 13 Jan 11, 14:33
 

ACKERMAN CALLS FOR CONTINUING SUPPORT FOR LEBANON IN CRISIS
News from Congressman Gary Ackerman
5th District – New York
Queens & Long Island
January 12, 2011
Contact: Jordan Goldes, 718-423-2154
U.S. Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-NY), who is expected to be the Democratic Ranking Member on the House Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia, today issued the enclosed statement following the action of the 11 Lebanese cabinet ministers who resigned as part of an effort to bring down the government of Prime Minister Sa’ad Hariri because of his continuing support of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon:
“At this moment of political chaos in Lebanon, I think it’s absolutely essential that the United States continue to support Prime Minister Hariri in his efforts to maintain stability, to protect Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence, and to preserve the quest for justice embodied in the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). Prime Minister Hariri has been steadfast, disciplined and focused on protecting Lebanon’s vital interests and maintaining calm in his country.
“Today, in his meeting with Prime Minister Hariri, President Obama made crystal clear the enduring support of the United States for Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence, as well as the continuing need to implement all the relevant UN Security Council resolutions regarding Lebanon. I commend the President for standing up so clearly for Lebanon in its time of need.
“In the face of provocation, threats of insurrection, and attempts at intimidation, extortion and blackmail by the terrorists in Hezbollah, an arm of the barbaric theocratic dictatorship in Iran, and an ally of the thuggish regime in Damascus, Prime Minister Hariri has stood firm, yielding only that ground necessary to preserve calm inside his country. But on the fundamental principle of the government’s sovereignty and the importance of the STL in the search for justice for his murdered father, the former prime minister, as well as 21 other innocent Lebanese citizens, he has been unwavering.
“The United States must continue to support those Lebanese committed to a future of peace, justice and stability for their country and for the region.”

Berman Reacts To Hezbollah’s Forced Collapse of Lebanese Government
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
CONTACT: Gabby Adler
Gabby.Adler@mail.house.gov
202.225.8110, office
202.215.4509, cell
Washington, DC – Congressman Howard L. Berman, Ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, released the following statement in response to Hezbollah’s forced collapse of the Lebanese Government.
“I stand firmly behind Prime Minister Hariri’s decision not to cave in to Hezbollah’s blackmail. This is a critical time for Lebanon to find a peaceful way forward, and I urge all Lebanese to reject violence in resolving this matter.”

Ros-Lehtinen Statement on Situation in Lebanon
House Foreign Affairs Committee
U.S. House of Representatives
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Ranking Republican
January 12, 2011
CONTACT: Brad Goehner or Andeliz Castillo, (202) 226-8467,
http://foreignaffairs.house.gov
For IMMEDIATE Release
(WASHINGTON) – U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, released the following statement today on the reported fall of the Government of Lebanon after the withdrawal of ministers representing Hezbollah and its partners:
“As the government of Lebanon appears to enter a period of transition at this crucial time, we must strongly and consistently support pro-democracy and pro-freedom Lebanese and the formation of a government free from the destructive influence of Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah.
“The Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis is working to put an end to any hope for sovereignty, democracy, and freedom for Lebanon and the Lebanese people. The United States and other responsible nations must not repeat past mistakes where we failed to stand up to those who threaten Lebanon and all free nations.
“We must be vigilant against efforts to obstruct the work of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and to evade accountability for the assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri.”

Congressman Chris Murphy issued the following statement in reaction to the Hizbollah-led coalition’s efforts to bring down the government as a path to delegitimize the UN Special Tribunal’s investigation of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
January 12, 2011
Congressman Chris Murphy issued the following statement in reaction to the Hizbollah-led coalition’s efforts to bring down the government as a path to delegitimize the UN Special Tribunal’s investigation of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
By walking out of the governing coalition today, Hizbollah and its allies unveiled their determination to hold the Lebanese unity government hostage to their own parochial interests. The Lebanese people shouldn’t have to choose between justice and stability – they deserve both. The work of the Special Tribunal must be allowed to continue without interference from any outside party, and the individuals responsible must be held accountable without threats of violence from any side. I join President Obama in reaffirming the U.S. commitment to our partnership with Lebanon, and strongly support Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s determined effort to protect Lebanese sovereignty and promote peace and stability in his country.
Jessica Elledge
Executive/Legislative Assistant
Congressman Christopher Murphy (CT-5)

Resignations Deepen Crisis for Lebanon
By NADA BAKRI
Published: January 12, 2011
Hezbollah and its political allies withdrew from Lebanon’s cabinet on Wednesday, toppling a national unity government that had brought a measure of calm to the troubled Middle Eastern country since 2009 and deepening an emerging crisis over a United Nations-backed tribunal investigating the assassination of a former prime minister.
The resignations returned Lebanon to familiar terrain. Hezbollah and its foes have wrestled over the direction of the country since the former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, was killed in a bombing along the Beirut seafront in February 2005.
After a lengthy investigation, the tribunal is now expected to indict members of Hezbollah, a Shiite movement that the United States considers a terrorist organization and the single most powerful force in Lebanon.
Hezbollah has denied any involvement in the attack and denounced the tribunal as an Israeli-American tool. It has further urged Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Mr. Hariri’s son, to end all cooperation with the tribunal and to reject its findings. Otherwise, it has promised to act, with Wednesday’s resignations serving as its first salvo.
In Washington to meet President Obama on Wednesday, Mr. Hariri has so far resisted the pressure, and American officials have sought to rally friendly Arab states to his aid.
For Mr. Obama, the point of the meeting was twofold: not just to ensure that Mr. Hariri did not fold but also to send a message to Syria that its continued backing of Hezbollah and its interference in Lebanon would further erode its already fragile relationship with the United States.
The Obama administration appears to be calculating that even if the prospect of the indictments has led to the collapse of Mr. Hariri’s government, he can continue in an interim capacity long enough for the actual indictments — which it expects to be deeply embarrassing to Hezbollah and Syria — to come out.
“We’re sort of in uncharted territory now,” said Robert Malley, head of Middle East affairs with the International Crisis Group. “We’re in the position where we’re supporting him, but he doesn’t have a government, nor is it clear that he has a parliamentary majority.”
Mr. Hariri left shortly after the meeting for Paris, where he was scheduled to meet with President Nicolas Sarkozy before returning to Lebanon on Thursday. France has closer ties to Syria than the United States, and French officials hope to mediate with Syria to avert any violence in Lebanon in the coming days and weeks.
As is often the case with Lebanon, internal crises take on disproportionate importance, given the role that foreign powers habitually play in the country’s domestic affairs. Hezbollah is supported by Iran and Syria, while the United States, France and Saudi Arabia have backed Mr. Hariri’s government.
This crisis has the added danger of offering little room for compromise. For months now, Hezbollah has staked its reputation on having the tribunal discredited. To comply completely with Hezbollah’s demands, Mr. Hariri would probably sacrifice his political career.
“There is no easy solution,” said Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut. “It is a dilemma. You have two polar-opposite positions, and there is no way that you can reconcile the two camps.”
The unity government had been widely expected to collapse after the tribunal announces the indictments, but few expected it to fall so soon.
Nevertheless, the withdrawal by Hezbollah’s ministers and their allies has almost certainly created the worst crisis in Lebanon since 2008. In that year, an agreement was reached in Qatar to end sectarian clashes that had killed 81 people and brought Lebanon to the brink of a renewal of its 15-year civil war, which ended in 1990.
The national unity government was a step away from that brink. It was made up of 15 ministers from Mr. Hariri’s bloc and 10 from Hezbollah and its allies. The remaining five were nominated by President Michel Suleiman, under a formula that gave neither side a majority. Hezbollah managed to persuade one of Mr. Suleiman’s nominees, Minister of State Adnan Sayyed Hussein, to submit his resignation, which he did in a statement.
As soon as the government fell, both sides defended their positions.
After a meeting, Mr. Hariri’s bloc released a statement, expressing a willingness to compromise. But the statement, read by Boutros Harb, a lawmaker and minister, added, “There’s no way to compromise on the issue of the court and justice.”
Hezbollah refused to comment until Thursday. But an allied official, Health Minister Mohamad Jawad Khalifeh, said: “We don’t want any escalation. We are committed to the Constitution. We don’t know what commitment the others are talking about.”

Neutrality will not shield Sweden from terrorism
by Walid Phares, Ph.D.
http://worlddefensereview.com/phares011311.shtml
Published 13 Jan 11
World Defense Review columnist
Until Taimour Abdulwahab al-Abdaly's explosive belt went off prematurely in Stockholm last month, Sweden was the poster child for isolationism in the war on terror. While Abdulwahab's bomb failed to achieve his desired result, it did obliterate the myth that nations can remain neutral to global terrorism.
Abdulwahab's failed attack typifies the jihadis' all-out war against "infidels." He was a doctrinaire jihadist with ties to a local militant Islamist organization, and his attack didn't spring up out of nowhere. There had already been warning signs that terrorists were mobilizing against the Scandinavian democracy. Militants had threatened Swedish artist Lars Vilks for his satirical cartoon portrayal of the prophet Mohammed, attacking his home and attempting to murder him with an axe. Others threatened Vilks.
The Iraq-born Abdulwahab was a member of the Facebook group "Islamic Caliphate State." He lived in Luton in Bedfordshire, England, home to four of the terrorists who killed 52 and injured more than 2,000 in the 7/7 train bombings.
Swedish authorities claimed that Abdulwahab had been "completely unknown" to them before the blast, and that they were trying to ascertain when he was first "radicalized." Swedish prosecutor Tomas Lindstrand said that the country's security apparatus "was not a Stasi organization engaged in analyzing people's Facebook pages."
The irony is that Abdulwahab's musings on Facebook are the only evidence of his radicalism prior to the attack.
Farasat Latif, the secretary of the Luton mosque to which Abdulwahab belonged, said, "Despite Abdulwahab's extreme views nothing pointed to the fact that he was going to do something stupid."
While not rock-solid evidence of a plot in the making, Abdulwahab's "extreme views" were at least an indication that he was a potential danger to others. Contradicting his statement above, Latif added, "Soon Abdulwahab began making extremist statements focusing on suicide bombings."
From Stockholm to Luton, confusion seems to be the order of the day. No one seems to be able to comprehend how Abdulwahab became radicalized, what his motives were, nor the extremist network in which he was radicalizing.
Abdulwahab arrived in Sweden as a child in 1992 and obtained a European passport. In 2001, he moved to Great Britain to study at the University of Bedfordshire in Luton, where a jihadi network was already growing. Between 2004 and 2007, his activities were unknown.
In late 2009, during a resurgence of jihadi actions in Europe, Abdelwahab appears to have joined the campaign on the Continent. In a recorded message he made before the attack and sent to the Swedish government and the TT news agency, he said, "I never went to the Middle East to work or to make money; I went for jihad."
Last Sunday, the al Qaeda-affiliated Shumokh al-Islam website posted a message calling Abdulwahab a "brother" and quoted a prayer that says "God let me die as you are satisfied with me." European authorities have a lot of catching up to do. Whether or not they wish to admit it, they are at war. Even when jihadists act as "lone wolves," they always have ties to some kind of radicalizing environment. The internet is always a vehicle for radicalization, but small cadres of global jihadists create the habitat that cultivates terrorists like Abdulwahab. Luton had been a known hotbed of radicalization since July 7, 2005. The Swedes have now joined the community of nations besieged by Salafi terrorists. They may entertain notions of neutrality, but the jihadists who attack them don't care. — Professor Walid Phares is a Professor of Global Strategies and an advisor to the Counter Terrorism Caucus of the US House of Representatives. He is the author of The Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad.

What's next for Lebanon?
By Ben Gilbert - GlobalPost
Published: January 12, 2011
The Lebanese government has collapsed. So what comes next?
This scenario has played out before. In November 2006, after Hezbollah fought a grueling month-long war against Israel, the Shiite ministers in Fouad Siniora’s cabinet, Lebanon's prime minister at the time, resigned, leading to an 18-month political crisis. A Hezbollah-led sit in paralyzed downtown Beirut. Street clashes between Sunnis and Shiites were common. General strikes halted traffic at the airport.
The crisis climaxed in May 2008, when Hezbollah fighters and their allies took over Sunni neighborhoods in Beirut.
The crisis was diffused when a deal brokered by Qatar led to the Doha agreements. The U.S.-backed March 14 movement, of which current Prime Minister Saad Hariri is a key leader, largely gave the more powerful Hezbollah-led opposition what they wanted.
The fruit of those concessions came to bear today, when the opposition used its one-third plus one veto power to bring the government down — a key request made in 2006 and gained in 2008 at Doha.
At the heart of the matter during the 2006-2008 crisis was Hezbollah’s belief that Siniora’s government posed a threat because of its alignment with the United States and, by default, Israel. The climax came when Siniora’s government attempted to cut Hezbollah’s secret telecommunications network and remove one of its allies from the head of the airport. Hezbollah showed they could defeat Siniora and Hariri’s Sunnis on the streets. And the Doha agreement was born.
But, for both sides, the issues in 2008 appear to pale in comparison to the current crisis.
On the one hand, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is poised to indict members of Hezbollah in the murder of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.
Hezbollah views this as an existential threat. Killing the Sunni leader of Lebanon and former prime minister would destroy any claims the group has toward “defending Lebanon” with its massive arsenal of weapons, which Hezbollah says it needs to defend against Israeli aggression.
But the crisis is also existential for Saad Hariri. He cannot give in to Hezbollah’s demand to renounce the tribunal investigating the murder of his father. Lebanon analysts say this would be akin to political and professional suicide.
One of the biggest differences between this latest cabinet resignation and the one in 2006 is that, back then, Hariri and his allies held a parliamentary majority and could form a government without Hezbollah. Now, it is Hezbollah and its allies who may claim the majority. Some analysts said that if members of parliament allied with Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader and one-time March 14 leader, join the opposition, Hezbollah will have the parliamentary majority necessary to form a new government.
If Hezbollah can form a government composed of only its allies, it would allow Hezbollah to possibly withdraw funding for the tribunal, recall Lebanese judges assigned to the case and perhaps reject its findings.
But this tactic doesn't really achieve Hezbollah's goals: They want Hariri to disavow the tribunal, not be in the opposition voicing support for it.
If a government is formed without Hariri, he may play a card Hezbollah used in 2006: accuse the government of being unconstitutional because it does not include him and ministers from his Future Movement, the party representing the Sunni Muslim community in Lebanon’s religion-based political system.
Nor is forming a new government an easy prospect. When Hariri returns to the country today or Thursday from his trip to Washington and a meeting with French President Nicholas Sarkozy in Paris, he will apparently be in charge of a “caretaker” cabinet until a new government can be formed. It will be responsible for day-to-day workings of the state and cannot make policy. But Lebanese governments, no matter their makeup, do not simply appear out of thin air. It took nearly six months, from June until November 2009 to form the current government.
Hariri may well just bide his time in the opposition until the tribunal’s indictments come out. Besides disavowing them, there is nothing he or Hezbollah or their allies can do to stop the tribunal; the indictments are expected to be transferred to the pre-trial judge in the coming weeks. The judge must then confirm the indictments, which could take several weeks or even months. At that point, the indictments will be revealed publicly.
Hezbollah has hinted at using its arms again on the streets of Beirut as it did in 2008. But it would likely not pursue that move until after an attempt to form a new government amenable to its objectives of discrediting the court in Lebanon and the region. Nor is it clear what street violence could do at this point besides destabilize the country and further blemish Hezbollah’s image, which is exactly why the group is so focused on trying to get Hariri to disavow the tribunal.
But an indictment that points a finger at Hezbollah, however, could spark clashes. And Hezbollah has warned that they would “cut the hand” of anyone who attempted to arrest members of the group. The fall of the government does increase the stakes in Lebanon’s fragile arena of 18 different religious sects. Although the cabinet hasn’t met since Dec. 18 due to the tribunal issue, this government’s collapse can only serve to inflame already simmering tension between the country’s Sunni and Shiites and increases the risk of politically related street violence.
So far, the opposition has used political and constitutional, not violent, means to bring down the government. But, as a precaution, the Lebanese army moved out in force onto the streets of Beirut to try to stymie any clashes. According to Lebanese in Beirut, many people were staying at home for fear another round of violence is just around the corner. Unfortunately, it’s a situation the Lebanese have often been subjected to during the past six tumultuous years

Hizbullah move to thwart Special Tribunal will not work: Clinton
By The Daily Star /Compiled by Daily Star staff /Thursday, January 13, 2011
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Wednesday that Hizbullah’s move to topple Lebanon’s government and undermine a U.N.-backed tribunal into the murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri “will not work.” “Trying to bring the government down as a way to undermine the Special Tribunal [for Lebanon] is an abdication of responsibility, but it also will not work,” she said. “We view what happened today as a transparent effort by those forces inside Lebanon, as well as interests outside Lebanon, to subvert justice and undermine Lebanon’s stability and progress,” Clinton told a news conference in Doha, Qatar, where she is attending a meeting of regional leaders. “The work of the Special Tribunal must go forward so justice can be served and impunity ended,” Clinton said. “Lebanon needs now to rally behind its own interests. The Lebanese people need to get beyond political party. It’s not political parties that would be put on trial, its individuals,” she said.

Capital market first victim of Cabinet resignation
But most economists confirm Lebanon has all means to overcome major problems
By Osama Habib /Daily Star staff/Thursday, January 13, 2011
BEIRUT: The resignation of 11 ministers from the Cabinet of Prime Minister Saad Hariri Wednesday jolted the stock exchange market in Beirut as economists and experts warned of grave consequences if a new government is not formed soon to tackle Lebanon’s public debt problem. However, the Lebanese pound remained stable and there were no reports of any rush on the U.S. dollar or to convert accounts from Lebanese pound to foreign currencies. This is the first time in Lebanon’s history the government was forced to resign after one third of the Cabinet members declared that they are stepping down in an attempt to compel President Michel Sleiman to form another government.
The local market was not surprised by the resignation of the opposition ministers after the repeated calls by March 8 to discuss the controversial issue of the false witnesses who allegedly misled investigators into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
But nevertheless, shares of all listed banks and companies fell considerably, reflecting the growing fears of investors about Lebanon’s future.
The shares of the giant real estate company Solidere A and B fell by 8.18 percent and 6.72 percent respectively on Wednesday.
A broker at the Arab Financial Corporation told The Daily Star that shares are expected to fall further in the coming few days before adjusting next week.
“Some of the holders of Solidere shares decided to sell their stocks to other investors at lower prices. But what is interesting is that the exchange of shares were strictly among Lebanese investors,” Jean Tawyleh told the paper.
BLOM stock index fell to 1,488.65 points Wednesday from 1,538.13 Tuesday, a drop of 3.22 percent.
Brokers argue that the stock market in Lebanon usually moves on political sentiment instead of the performance of listed companies. “Solidere for example is making good profits. This also applies to other listed banks. But when we have a delicate political situation these shares tumble,” Tawyleh said.
He added that Solidere is paying $1 dividend on every share. “This means the investor is collecting 5 percent from each share if the price stood at $19.”
Solidere net profits fell 0.76 percent to reach $1.822 billion. The company’s share rose to an all time high of $39.8 on July 7, 2008.
Former Finance Minister Jihad Azour did not expect any major impact on the economy as a result of the resignation of 11 ministers. But he feared that the only thing which would cause alarm was the security situation.
“Today no one can tell how things will develop. But if we have a caretaker government then the Finance Ministry will spend money as it did in the past,” Azour said, adding that the government had practically talen no economic or reform measures for months.
Some critics sarcastically say the Lebanese do not feel there is a real government which looks after their welfare.
“The most important element is the political uncertainty if the security situation deteriorated for some reason. If this happens then the economy will surely suffer,” said Azour, who along with other economists was not too concerned about the monetary situation or the stability of the Lebanese pound.
The capital inflow, building permits and number of tourists, the three main driving force of the Lebanese economy, maintained good records despite the deep political discord and occasional security setbacks.
Bur economist Ghazi Wazneh warned that if one of the powerful sides decided to use its influence in the financial market to undermine its opponents then this would have a negative impact on the economy.
“This scenario can happen but I wonder if this group with huge financial resources has an interest in pursuing this goal. If this scenario happens then the side which is using its influence will suffer heavy financial losses,” Wazneh said.
He also ridiculed the notion that the United States and the Security Council could apply economic sanctions on Lebanon if authorities did not hand over suspected Hizbullah members who may be involved in the assassination of Hariri and other political figures.
All of the economists interviewed by The Daily Star stress that Lebanon is a unique country. They point out the fact that capital inflows, remittances, customer deposits and investment in real estate were not relatively affected by the past pace and sometimes alarming political and security developments.
Wazneh said the Central Bank has more than $30 billion in foreign currency reserves and another $13 billion worth of gold reserves.
He believes that even if a new government received no substantial assistance from the United States or Europe, Lebanon has adequate means to override any future problem.
With almost $130 billion in assets, Lebanese banks are even looking outside the country to make new investments.
“I believe any new government can come up with funds to implement some of the vital infrastructure projects. Funding is the least problem of any new government,” Wazneh said.
U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon threw his “full support” behind the tribunal.
“The secretary general is monitoring closely developments in Lebanon, where the situation is fast evolving,” said spokesman Martin Nesirky in a statement. “He emphasizes the importance that calm be preserved. The secretary general further calls for continuing dialogue among all parties and respect for the Constitution and the laws of Lebanon. He reiterates his full support for the independent work of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon,” Nesirky added.
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani said Qatar had no plans to mediate as it has in previous Lebanese political crises, but added that the Gulf region hoped the Saudi initiative to find a solution could still move forward.
“We still hope that there will be a solution which will avoid Lebanon slipping into conflicts of any sort,” he said at a joint appearance with Clinton.
A White House statement issued after U.S. President Barack Obama met with Saad Hariri in Washington commended Hariri for his “steadfast leadership and efforts to reach peace, stability and consensus in Lebanon under difficult circumstances.”
“The efforts by the Hizbullah-led coalition to collapse the Lebanese government only demonstrate their own fear and determination to block the government’s ability to conduct its business and advance the aspirations of all of the Lebanese people,” the statement said.
Obama also stressed the importance of the tribunal’s work as a “means to help end the era of political assassinations with impunity in Lebanon.”
Amr Moussa, Arab League secretary general, said the mass resignation “comes in dangerous circumstances and fears that Lebanon would enter once again the tunnel of crisis, political tension and disharmony among the Lebanese, which carry risks and threats to the march of security, stability and development in Lebanon.”
He called on Lebanese political leaders to seek calm and keep greater national interests and avenues for dialogue in mind.
The United Kingdom said Hizbullah’s withdrawal from the government was “extremely serious” and could have “grave implications” for stability across the Middle East.
British Foreign Secretary William Hague condemned any attempt to undermine the tribunal.
“This is an extremely serious development which could have grave implications for Lebanon and for regional stability,” Hague said in a statement.
“I call on all parties to work together for a peaceful resolution of the crisis caused by Hizbullah’s decision to withdraw from government.”
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal urged Hizbullah, which is backed by Iran and Syria, to rejoin the government. “The resignations will be dangerous as they will cause clashes once again,” Faisal told a joint news conference with his Turkish counterpart in Ankara. “They have the potential to cause everything built so far to collapse,” the Saudi minister said, warning of repercussions around the region. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that he hoped Hizbullah would rethink the resignations and voiced support for Syrian and Saudi mediation efforts. – Agencies, with The Daily Star

Uncertainty grips Lebanon
Western powers accuse March 8 of subverting justice after government toppled
By Hussein Dakroub and Hassan Lakiss /Daily Star staff
Thursday, January 13, 2011
BEIRUT: Lebanon was plunged deeper into political turmoil Wednesday with the collapse of Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s national unity Cabinet after 10 ministers from the March 8 coalition and a minister loyal to President Michel Sleiman resigned over the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Regional and world leaders expressed deep concerns over the dramatic developments, with the United States and Britain blaming Hizbullah for attempting “to subvert justice” and undermine Lebanon’s stability and security.
Energy Minister Jibran Bassil, reading the statement of the 10 ministers’ resignations at a news conference, called on Sleiman to quickly launch parliamentary consultations to form a new government. Later, Minister of State Adnan Sayyed Hussein, close to Sleiman, said in a statement he was stepping down after “political differences” had threatened unity among Cabinet members. Under the Constitution, the resignation of one-third plus one of Cabinet members automatically leads to the collapse of the 30-member government.
The resignations came as Hariri was meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House in Washington to discuss the Lebanese crisis over the S.T.L., which is probing the 2005 assassination of Hariri’s father, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
Hariri did not speak to reporters after the talks with Obama and left the U.S. for France, where he is expected to meet with French President Nicolas Sarkozy Thursday.
A White House statement said Obama and Hariri vowed to pursue stability and justice in Lebanon. It said the actions by Hizbullah “only demonstrate their own fear and determination to block the government’s ability to conduct its business and advance the aspirations of all of the Lebanese people.”
“The president and prime minister expressed their determination to achieve both stability and justice in Lebanon during this challenging period of government volatility, and agreed that all parties should avoid threats or actions that could cause instability,” the statement said. Obama commended Hariri “for his steadfast leadership and efforts to reach peace, stability, and consensus in Lebanon under difficult circumstances.” Following the ministers’ resignations, a senior March 8 source told The Daily Star that the March 8 coalition has a majority in the 128-member Parliament, which enables it to go ahead with naming a candidate of its own for prime minister during the president’s binding parliamentary consultations.
A presidential statement is expected to be issued Thursday accepting the ministers’ resignation and asking the Cabinet to stay on in a caretaker capacity until a new government is formed, a political source said. Sleiman will also issue another statement setting a date for binding consultations with legislators on the appointment of a new prime minister, the source said. He added that Sleiman showed “understanding” toward Sayyed Hussein’s resignation. It was the first time in Lebanon’s politically turbulent history that a government collapsed under pressure of the resignations of one-third plus one of its members. The ministers’ resignations were part of the March 8 coalition’s escalatory steps after Sleiman and Hariri failed to meet the coalition’s demand for an immediate Cabinet session to end Lebanon’s cooperation with the S.T.L.
The March 8 ministers had given Sleiman and Hariri a Wednesday morning deadline to call for a Cabinet session to stop payment of Lebanon’s share toward the financing of the STL, withdraw the Lebanese judges from the tribunal, end cooperation with the STL, and prosecute the “false witnesses” linked to the UN probe into Rafik Hariri’s killing.
Hizbullah and its March 8 allies have for long been urging Hariri to disavow the S.T.L. on the grounds it is part of a U.S.-Israeli plot aimed at targeting the resistance.
The resignations of the 11 ministers came a day after the March 8 coalition declared that Saudi-Syrian efforts have failed to break Lebanon’s months-long political stalemate over the S.T.L.’s impending indictment, which is widely expected to implicate some Hizbullah members in Hariri’s killing, raising fears of sectarian strife.
The ministers’ resignations came after they met at the residence of Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun at Rabieh, north of Beirut.
Reading a statement after the meeting on behalf of the 10 March 8 ministers, Bassil said the ministers “regret that opportunities to ensure the success of these efforts, spare Lebanon any attempt to undermine its stability and protect it from strife have been wasted.” He blamed Washington for the Saudi-Syrian efforts reaching a dead end. “The other side bowed to external, especially American pressure, ignoring the advice and wishes of the Saudi and Syrian sides,” Bassil said.
He added that after the demand for a Cabinet session went unanswered, the ministers tendered their resignations in order to set the stage for “a new government capable of shouldering responsibility of the next stage and carrying out its duties to maintain stability, ward off dangers and ensure real justice.”
“The ministers hope the president will quickly take necessary measures for the formation of a new government,” Bassil said.
Marjayoun M.P. Ali Hassan Khalil of Speaker Nabih Berri’s parliamentary bloc who attended the Rabieh meeting described the ministers’ resignations as “a pure political process,” adding: “We want to be more keen than those who served in the Cabinet for a long time but did not maintain the logic of national accord.”
M.P.s who met Berri Wednesday quoted him as saying that the Saudi-Syrian settlement was in favor of all Lebanese factions. He was quoted as saying that the Saudi and Syrian leaders were honest in reaching a solution for the Lebanese crisis “but it seemed that the Big Powers’ game was bigger [than them].”
Labor Minister Butros Harb, from the March 14 coalition, said the resignations of the 11 ministers have further complicated the country’s political crisis. “There is no room for compromise over the issue of the tribunal. Because we are keen on the country, we announce that we are open to dialogue [with the March 8 camp],” Harb told a news conference following a meeting of the March 14 coalition.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Lebanon’s Cabinet crisis was a transparent attempt to subvert justice, but vowed that the STL’s work would go on.
“We view what happened today as a transparent effort by those forces inside Lebanon, as well as interests outside Lebanon, to subvert justice and undermine Lebanon’s stability and progress,” Clinton told a joint news conference in Doha, Qatar, with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani.
“The work of the Special Tribunal must go forward so justice can be served and impunity ended,” Clinton said. “Lebanon needs now to rally behind its own interests. The Lebanese people need to get beyond political party. It’s not political parties that would be put on trial, it’s individuals.”
Sheikh Hamad said Qatar had no plans to mediate as it has in previous Lebanese political crises, but added that the Gulf region hoped the Syrian-Saudi initiative to find a solution could still move forward. “We still hope that there will be a solution which will prevent Lebanon from slipping into conflicts of any sort,” Hamad said.

Government crisis prompts mixed public reaction
Blame spread widely across domestic and international forces as few see return of Hariri
By Elias Sakr /Daily Star staff
Thursday, January 13, 2011
BEIRUT: Ordinary Lebanese were sharply divided over whom to blame for the collapse of Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s Cabinet Wednesday after the withdrawal of ministers loyal to Hizbullah and its allies. But irrespective of their political affiliations, the majority expressed concerns about violence breaking out when the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (S.T.L.), as is widely expected, issues an indictment against members of Hizbullah over the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Some even wished for a breakout of violence in a bid to settle the political dispute through force, in any direction.
In the neighborhoods of Tariq al-Jadideh, Burj Abi Haidar and Achrafieh, some fear the Cabinet void paves the way for instability that might escalate into Sunni-Shiite strife. Army patrols and checkpoints were seen throughout the capital Wednesday night in a pre-emptive move against potential incidents.
While Tariq al-Jadideh’s mostly Sunni residents blamed the failure to reach a compromise on Hizbullah and its regional backers, Shiites in Burj Abi Haidar accused Hariri of surrendering to the will of Washington in an attempt to corner the resistance by falsely implicating Hizbullah in the assassination of his father.
Youssef Rmeidi, a Burj Abi Haidar, resident said both camps were guilty in the failure of Syrian-Saudi talks and called on the resistance “to attempt a coup to counter groups seeking a victory that serves Israel.”
Rmeidi felt the renomination of Hariri as prime minister was unlikely, and predicted Hizbullah and its allies would declare civil disobedience.
Echoing Rmeidi, Ibrahim Jawad said he expected the situation to deteriorate as he accused the Hariri-led March 14 coalition of plotting “against the resistance and the country.”
Though he said a breakout of violence would serve the interests of the U.S., Jawad said he wished it would take place, “so that everyone becomes aware of his true [political weight],” in reference to Hizbullah’s military supremacy over the March 14 coalition.
On the other side of the political divide, Abed, a 40 year old from Tariq al-Jadideh, said Hizbullah and its allies sought to destroy Lebanon.
He added that while he did not expect Hariri to head the new Cabinet, the formation of one as matters stand today faces major difficulties, despite the realignment of Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt with the March 8 coalition. “Jumblatt is counted as a member of the opposition, and despite his compassion toward Hariri, he will comply with Hizbullah’s position when it comes to parliamentary consultations.” President Michel Sleiman is expected to call for binding parliamentary consultations to nominate the new premier, with the possibility Hariri’s March 14 led coalition may lose the Parliamentary majority if all of Jumblatt’s Democratic bloc lawmakers realign with March 8.
Nevertheless, other supporters from both camps said the collapse of the Cabinet was simply a case of political theater, mapped out by foreign superpowers, although opinions differed on the motives behind such a plot. Some said the Cabinet vacuum was planned by domestic parties with the approval of foreign powers as a compromise, to allow the Lebanese to avoid assuming the responsibility of cooperating with the S.T.L., which might involve arresting Hizbullah members named in the court’s indictment. “This is a game to say that no government is present to implement the indictment,” Ali, 30, from Burj Abi Haidar said. Others said rival parties have agreed that Hariri step aside to avoid embarrassment; allowing another prime minister to assume the responsibility of halting cooperation with the tribunal. In Achrafieh, a majority of mostly Christian residents held all parties responsible for the failure to break the deadlock, accusing both the March 14 and 8 camps of surrendering to the will of foreign parties.Elie, 38, dismissed the likelihood of a new Cabinet being formed soon “without foreign intervention.” Asked whether he feared security instability, Elie said he had “no concerns,” even though he could not rule out such a scenario. Michel, another Achrafieh resident, said the Cabinet “should have been brought down a long time ago after its failure to make any achievements.”

Amid stalemate, let negotiations begin!
By Michael Young /Daily Star
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Michel Aoun has announced the end of the Syrian-Saudi initiative, with no results. “[W]e’ve reached a dead end,” said the general Monday. But is that true? It’s just possible that we are at the start of a new negotiating phase, this time one in which Hizbullah will have to negotiate in earnest, and in which the Syrians will continue to try playing the party off against Prime Minister Saad Hariri.
A key test to gauge Syrian intentions will be whether Damascus orders its allies in Beirut to pull out of the government and bring it down. At the time of writing this was likely to happen, but the step represents a major risk for Syria’s President Bashar Assad. Hariri and the Saudis remain Syria’s principal tickets back into Lebanon politically, and Assad is not after a divorce with Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah. Still, the Syrians want Hariri to do more to discredit the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, as the institution might yet point the finger at them.
This leaves Hariri facing one of two situations. If the government falls, he will in all probability be asked to form a new government. The prime minister might refuse, compelling the opposition, with Walid Jumblatt, to form a government of its own, with a pro-Syrian Sunni as prime minister. However, this would be no easy task, as there are few legitimate Sunnis eager to head a government against their own community, its principal aim to shield the assassins of Rafik Hariri. Or, the opposition, aware of this difficulty, will sooner or later see that they can deal only with Saad Hariri, which will force them to enter into talks with him in order to find an agreeable exit for all.
Jumblatt tartly summed up the situation recently by observing, “They say you can make a camel cross the desert, but can you make a camel cross the Atlantic?” The Obama administration refused to do any such thing, and last week Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made it clear to Hariri and his sponsor, King Abdullah, that Beirut should not touch the tribunal. This came after President Barack Obama made a recess appointment that sent a new U.S. ambassador to Damascus, but also after an unidentified American official (the odds-on favorite being the assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs, Jeffrey Feltman) told the Saudi-owned Al-Hayat that any Syrian-Saudi arrangement that undermined the special tribunal would constitute “blackmail.”
After the Clinton-Hariri meeting in New York, the Saudis suddenly reversed course, and “sources” were telling Al-Hayat that the Syrian-Saudi dialogue was, in fact, a Hariri-Syrian dialogue. That sounded the death knell for the Syrian-Saudi exchanges, but one thing should be kept in mind: The Obama administration never opposed, as such, the Abdullah-Assad discussions over Lebanon, nor was it particularly hostile to the Saudis’ idea of giving Damascus power in Beirut in exchange for containing Iran and Hizbullah. The Americans may not have had high hopes for the scheme, but they did not obstruct it.
That doesn’t diminish the fact that Assad is smarting from the American derailing of Syrian-Saudi talks. This obliged him to instruct his friends in Beirut to tighten the screws on Hariri. But how far will the Syrian president go, and how far can he go? Assad does not want to be blamed by Washington and Paris for whatever goes wrong in Lebanon, and he grasps that any confrontation between the Lebanese might only reinforce Hizbullah, and more importantly Iran, at Syria’s expense. Hariri’s neutralization would deny Syria a strong card in reimposing its writ in Lebanon. A Hariri politically defeated effectively means a Syria fully dependent on Hizbullah to protect its Lebanese stakes, a situation that Assad doesn’t relish.
What is Hariri hoping for? If he is given the choice of heading a government in which he is much weakened, he would probably not accept to become prime minister. Ideally, he would like to bargain with Hizbullah, but will only surrender something substantial on the tribunal if the party does the same elsewhere. And what might Hariri demand? Complete disarmament is surely out of the question. But maybe not some form of disarmament in the heart of Beirut; and the appointment of Hariri loyalists to senior security posts. Anything less, Hariri must feel, would only disgrace him in Sunni eyes.
Neither Hizbullah nor Syria is pleased with what is going on. For the party, all the contentious means of crippling the tribunal have grave shortcomings. A serious political or security escalation would only harden discord at a moment when Hizbullah’s primary goal is to show that Lebanon is united in its rejection of the special tribunal. As for Assad, if he pushes too hard, he may lose for good the Lebanese Sunni card, which he has worked for years to regain. Hariri alone can issue Hizbullah with a certificate of innocence, and if the prime minister decides to sit the coming period out of office, it is difficult to see how any opposition-led government would function properly.
There are rarely dead ends in Lebanon, and Michel Aoun’s pessimism betrayed a more profound realization: that the first stage of Hizbullah’s strategy, based on intimidation, had failed. Things now become very complicated for everyone. Only negotiations between Hariri and Hizbullah are likely to result in a resolution, nothing else.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR and author of “The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle” (Simon & Schuster).

Cabinet collapse part of bigger campaign
Further escalation likely, but both sides wish to avoid violence, analysts say
By Michael Bluhm /Daily Star staff
Thursday, January 13, 2011
BEIRUT: The March 8-led mass resignation from the Cabinet Wednesday marked the first strike in a pressure campaign almost certain to include street protests and further escalation, in order to force rival March 14 politicians to renounce support for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (S.T.L.), a number of analysts have said. Eleven ministers announced their resignations, bringing down Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s government as Saudi-Syrian attempts to broker a deal over the tribunal failed over alleged U.S. rejection of the agreement.
Paul Salem, the head of the Middle East Carnegie Center, said the Hizbullah-led March 8 alliance would probably soon call for massive popular demonstrations over economic and social issues, in essence following its script from late 2006 and 2007, when the faction brought state institutions to a standstill with protests and a sit-in in Downtown Beirut.
“The opposition now has to go back to its original plan of pressure; step one is … the government,” Salem said.
Although rumors of imminent civil strife are percolating, analysts said both sides want to avoid violence. Marwan Rowayheb, who teaches international relations and political science at Lebanese American University, said fears of armed confrontation would, however, persist during the coming political interregnum because the political camps divide along traditionally hostile sectarian lines. According to Hilal Khashan, who teaches political studies at the American University of Beirut, whatever the various scenarios for the next cabinet’s formation, in the end the polarized political groups will still in all likelihood reach a deal over the international court, simply because Lebanon’s delicate confessional balance requires that all sides compromise to keep the country afloat.
Nevertheless, the collapse of the government indicates that the contentious factions will need much more time to conclude an agreement over the S.T.L., Khashan added.
“The death of the Saudi-Syrian agreement is not the end of the world – an agreement will be reached,” he said.
Hariri’s Cabinet was effectively comatose in recent months because of conflicts over the tribunal, so having a caretaker government will only continue the political status quo, Khashan said. “The Cabinet is already in a state of paralysis,” he said. “The resignation of the opposition Cabinet members will only formalize an existing situation. Cabinet members are already acting in a caretaker capacity.”
President Michel Sleiman will likely proceed gingerly before launching consultations with various parties to select a new prime minister, and the analysts said it remained unclear whether either camp had the votes in Parliament to push through a candidate, meaning the caretaker administration could also last until the next general elections, slated for 2013.
After toppling the government, March 8 occupies a “precarious political position,” in which Hizbullah remains the strongest domestic political actor but also feels acute stress over the tribunal’s looming indictment, which Hizbullah leaders have said will name party members in connection with the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Saad’s father. Hizbullah has also said the court is a tool wielded by the US and Israel to weaken the group.
The Shiite movement still desires a speedy settlement of differences over the S.T.L., because it fears the potential damage the tribunal could do to Hizbullah, Khashan said. “They have been frantic, trying to get Saad Hariri to denounce the tribunal, to attenuate the effects [of the indictment],” Khashan added. “Hizbullah wants a quick resolution, because they feel the indictment will come very soon. The opposition is escalating.”
Linking Hizbullah cadres to Rafik Hariri’s killing would thoroughly sully the group’s image in the Middle East as the vanguard of resistance against Israel and the U.S., Khashan said. “The indictment will vilify Hizbullah, and this is their concern,” he said. “They are worried about their reputation in the Arab-Islamic world.”
Hizbullah is also apprehensive that being implicated would offer a credible international justification for Israel or the U.S. in any future conflict against the group, Salem said. “They fear that the U.S. will use this, as it were, against them in the next war,” he added.
With Washington offering a convenient target, Hizbullah and its allies will continue to blast the U.S. as the culprit for the failure of the Saudi-Syrian initiative, Salem said; while U.S. opposition undoubtedly played a role in scuttling the negotiations, March 8 politicians still want to avoid rhetoric too deeply antagonizing to Hariri or Saudi Arabia, because Riyadh and Damascus will continue to mediate talks to extinguish the crisis here, Salem added.
“At the end of the day, they don’t want to alienate Saudi Arabia; they also don’t want to alienate Saad Hariri, because they have to negotiate with them,” Salem said.
As for Hariri, he may take some comfort that his allies in Washington appear to categorically refuse any compromises over the tribunal, Khashan said. Hariri remains committed to the court’s efforts to uncover the truth behind his father’s killing, and Hariri and his March 14 cohorts have also for some time felt neglected by the U.S. as Syrian and Iranian influence spread in Lebanon, Khashan added.
“When the U.S. vetoed the deal, they were doing a favor to Saad Hariri,” he said. “Saad Hariri accepted the terms [of the Saudi-Syrian initiative], but under duress. He couldn’t say no to the Saudis. The American veto on this deal came to Saad Hariri’s rescue, because he can’t say no, but the U.S. can say no.
“The American resolve shown has reversed this sense of abandonment felt by the March 14 coalition.”
On the other hand, said Habib Malik, who teaches history at the Lebanese American University, Hariri and the March 14 coalition might be suffering from unfounded confidence that U.S. support and the S.T.L. indictment put them in a position of strength. The exit of Progressive Socialist Party head Walid Jumblatt from March 14 ranks in August 2009 might have deprived March 14 of a majority in Parliament, and throughout Lebanon’s history many politicians have endured defeat when counting on U.S. backing.
“There’s a lot of self-deception here,” Malik said. March 14 “falsely gets the impression that they’re strong and can stick to their guns.”
Meanwhile, only a major event such as war or a geopolitical shift will alter the alliances of Lebanon’s divided parties, Salem said.
“I don’t think this will change the political alignments in Lebanon,” he said. “The impact in Lebanon … is probably going to be just a lot of tension without changing the alignment.”
Hariri, meanwhile, still finds himself in a treacherously difficult position. Despite firm support in his Sunni constituency, his March 14 coalition consists of parties with contradictory aims, while he also has a raft of varying international obligations and a strong wish not to go down in history as having brought disaster to Lebanon in his first term as prime minister, said Rowayheb.
However the new phase sparked by the ministerial resignations turns out, the key point is that months of Saudi-Syrian efforts failed to bring the sides together, Salem said.
“The positions remained unbridgeable,” he said. “There’s been an expectation that the crisis would be resolved. It became clear in the past few days that that negotiation was not going to work. What the opposition wanted from Saad Hariri … he simply was not willing to do. What they wanted was for Saad to break with the tribunal, because he is the only one with the credibility to do it.”

Time for Lebanese to re-think stances
Daily Star/Thursday, January 13, 2011
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&article_id=123582&categ_id=17#axzz1As2WCx7N
From outside, Wednesday’s events in Lebanon might appear to be an exercise in democracy and normal constitutional procedures. But the Cabinet’s collapse amid a dispute over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon comes at a time of extreme sensitivity in the Mideast, and after months of Arab mediation failed to solve the impasse.
Politicians are now calling for a homegrown, Lebanese solution, but this is difficult to envision as the next expected steps take place: the formal resignation of the government and the president’s call for binding consultations to name the next prime minister. The “opposition” may have taken the step of resigning en masse and bringing down the Cabinet in the belief it has secured a majority of Parliament, which will allow the naming of a prime minister who is not Saad Hariri.
It is well-understood that such a figure would struggle mightily as premier, because he would lack the support of leading members of the Sunni community.
Such a scenario would signal that the Lebanese have learned little in recent decades. In the 1950s, President Camille Chamoun was mired in a dispute with leading Muslim politicians and named a prime minister (Sami Solh) who was quickly ostracized by the Sunni community. The same was experienced by Salim al-Hoss, when President Emile Lahoud named him to the prime minister’s post in 1998.
Leading Christian parties suffered from political “frustration” in the 1990s when they were excluded from government, and the government of Fouad Siniora encountered huge difficulties trying to govern while at odds with the leaders of the Shiite community a few years ago, in the wake of the assassination of Rafik Hariri. Under Lebanon’s sectarian system, marginalizing a leading group leads nowhere. Despite all of its faults, the outgoing government was much more representative than others, as the fruit of the 2008 Doha accord. Its successor might make a top priority out of derailing the S.T.L., by refusing to cooperate with, fund, or staff the tribunal.
Such a course would bring Lebanon into a confrontation with the international community whose repercussions will be difficult to predict, other than the certainty that all of Lebanon’s sects will be affected. Lebanon is a fragile place, but when there is stability, the country can capitalize on its prime resource: serving as an oasis of investment, a symbol of diversity, and a hive of cultural and social activity. However, the country is awash in socio-economic problems and faces an array of challenges. If the next government embarks on a course of provocation, it will only add to a depressingly long list of problems. As long as the rhetoric and actions of politicians remain within acceptable norms, perhaps Lebanon can find a way out of its impasse. But if the rival sides fail to re-think their positions, and generate a truly workable political formula, a bleak future awaits.