LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِJanuary 01/2010

Bible Of The Day
The Good News According to Matthew 5/1-11: "5:1 Seeing the multitudes, he went up onto the mountain. When he had sat down, his disciples came to him. 5:2 He opened his mouth and taught them, saying, 5:3 “Blessed are the poor in spirit, for theirs is the Kingdom of Heaven.* 5:4 Blessed are those who mourn, for they shall be comforted.5:5 Blessed are the gentle, for they shall inherit the earth. 5:6 Blessed are those who hunger and thirst after righteousness, for they shall be filled. 5:7 Blessed are the merciful, for they shall obtain mercy. 5:8 Blessed are the pure in heart, for they shall see God. 5:9 Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called children of God. 5:10 Blessed are those who have been persecuted for righteousness’ sake, for theirs is the Kingdom of Heaven. 5:11 “Blessed are you when people reproach you, persecute you, and say all kinds of evil against you falsely, for my sake. 5:12 Rejoice, and be exceedingly glad, for great is your reward in heaven. For that is how they persecuted the prophets who were before you.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters, Interviews & Special Reports
Turmoil in Lebanon/By: Joseph Puder/December 31/10
Lebanese on the sidelines in this game of political football/By: Michael Young/December 31/10
A New Ambassador to Syria, but Little Hope of Change/New York Times/December 31/10
The keys to the Middle East/By Avi Issacharoff/December 31/10
Baroud’s dilemma/Now Lebanon/December 31/10

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for December 31/10
Lebanon approaches new year with crises hanging/Daily Star
Pakistan makes two nuclear weapons available to Saudi Arabia/DEBKAfile
Lebanese flee Ivory Coast/Now Lebanon
Soueid: Lebanese want justice/Now Lebanon
Marouni: March 8 suggesting the elimination of March 14/Now Lebanon
Ghattas Khoury: No compromise will annul the STL/Now Lebanon
Baroud: ISF officers should get their promotions/Now Lebanon
Politicians comment on Harb’s bill/Now Lebanon
Conflicting reports on Saudi-Syrian initiative/Now Lebanon
Assiri Urges Hizbullah, Allies to Return to Dialogue Table/Naharnet
Hizbullah: Saudi will Impose Solution on March 14/Naharnet
Jumblat Hits Back at Harb: Your Draft Law is Madness/Naharnet
4 Danish Terror Plot Suspects, Including 1 Born in Lebanon, Remanded in Custody/Naharnet
Foreign Ministry to Send Ban Letter on Israeli Violation of Petroleum Wealth/Naharnet
Mortar Shell Found in Tripoli's Al-Miten Street/Naharnet
Geagea Stresses after Meeting Qahwaji Army's Central Role in Protecting Peace/Naharnet
Sources: S-S Will Call for Governmental Change after Release of Indictment/Naharnet
Shami after Meeting Ali Calls for Confronting Israel over its Exploitation of Petroleum Wealth/Naharnet
Harb Presents Draft Law Preventing Sale of Property between Lebanese Sects for 15 Years/Naharnet
Najjar: Mirza will Play Ghanem's Role Until Replacement Found/Naharnet
Army Sources Accuse U.N., UNIFIL of Neglect in Maritime Border Delineation/Naharnet

Lebanon approaches new year with crises hanging
Discord over tribunal prevails as country braces for 2011 with paralyzed government
By Mirella Hodeib
Daily Star staff
Friday, December 31, 2010
BEIRUT: The central political theme of 2010 – tension over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) – looks set to dominate 2011, as Lebanese wonder whether the country is headed for a “grand settlement” or only a temporary truce.
The stalemate over the STL, which is investigating the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, took shape in mid-year, as Hizbullah, expecting to be implicated in the long-awaited indictment, stepped up its campaign against the tribunal.
By year’s end, the central government was mired in paralysis. Cabinet sessions on November 10 and December 16 were adjourned shortly after convening, with ministers unable to compromise over the contentious issue of “false witnesses” who misled international investigators into Hariri’s killing. Meanwhile, the government’s ability to function as a cohesive whole, never strong in the first place, disappeared entirely.
In a bid to avert possible civil strife, regional players will exert exceptional efforts to contain fierce tension that has crippled Lebanon this year, analysts said.
“Let’s face it, countries of the region will not allow the court to jeopardize the overall stability of the area,” Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut (AUB) told The Daily Star. “The situation in the region is not opportune for the tribunal to easily perform its tasks,” he said.
In the last six months, Lebanon has been ravaged by a flood of rumors over the post-STL indictment repercussions.
In a speech in July, Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah slammed the court as an “Israeli project” aimed at striking at the resistance and sowing strife in Lebanon.
Nasrallah’s sharp condemnation forced the leaders of Lebanon’s two main powerbrokers, Saudi Arabia and Syria, to fly to Beirut on July 30 and call for calm.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan also paid visits to Lebanon in late 2010 in a bid to ease the mounting tension.
However, the joint visit by Syrian President Bashar Assad and Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah took center stage.
“I am convinced that Saudi-Syrian efforts are serious and fall in the interest of Lebanon,” said Fadia Kiwan, head of the political science department at Saint Joseph University. “Both Syria and Saudi Arabia are interested in Lebanon avoiding strife.”
According to Khashan, Saudi Arabia was trying to prevent any potential escalation in Lebanon. “Saudi Arabia’s main concern right now is not to know the truth [about who killed Hariri],” he said. “Iran’s rising influence in the region, internal problems such as political succession, as well as monitoring the insurgency in Yemen, are Saudi Arabia’s areas of interest at the moment.”
Local media has been rife with speculation about what Hizbullah might do if named in the STL indictment, with party officials remaining tight-lipped about their future plans.
According to Khashan, the media-spun scenarios were “baseless.” He downplayed serious violence following the release of the indictment, and predicted that Hizbullah would not take over Lebanon, as some have suggested.
Kiwan also dismissed the possibility of major clashes occurring, but did not exclude the possibility of sporadic security incidents, especially in mixed Sunni-Shiite areas.
A dispute in August over parking space in the mixed Beirut neighborhood of Burj Abi Haidar quickly degenerated into armed clashes between the supporters of Hizbullah and those of an ostensibly allied Sunni Islamist faction, the Association of Islamic Charitable Projects (Al-Ahbash). The incident was seen as a sample of the intensity of clashes that might occur if the STL points the finger at Hizbullah.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri has so far remained silent over the presumed involvement of Hizbullah in his father’s murder, which was first widely blamed on Syria. Immediately after the killing, Damascus came under tremendous international pressure to withdraw its troops from Lebanon after a 29-year presence.
Nonetheless, after he was appointed prime minister in 2009, ties between Hariri and the Syrian regime have warmed. In line with his rapprochement to Damascus, which he visited four times this year, Hariri said he was mistaken to accuse Syria of killing his father.
“At a certain stage we made mistakes and accused Syria of assassinating Rafik Hariri,” he told Saudi daily Ash-Sharq al-Awsat in September. “This was a political accusation, and this political accusation has finished,” he added.
However, Hariri again lost touch with Assad in October, when the Syrian judiciary issued 33 arrest warrants against individuals said to have misled investigations into the Hariri killing, based on a lawsuit filed by former head of Lebanon’s General Security, Jamil al-Sayyed.
Sayyed, who was detained in 2005 for alleged involvement in the brutal assassination but released four years later for lack of evidence, argued defendants were involved in a conspiracy of false testimony intended to point to the involvement of Syria and its supporters in Hariri’s killing.
Many of those named in the Syrian arrest warrants are political allies or associates of Saad Hariri.
In July, Sayyed appeared before the STL in the body’s first public hearing, seeking to obtain information from the court to support his lawsuit.
In parallel, Hizbullah sought to discredit the Netherlands-based tribunal over the issue of so-called “false witnesses,” while demanding that Beirut block funding for the STL, withdraw Lebanese judges from the court and cancel its cooperation protocol with the body.
Analysts, however, agreed that the young prime minister caving in to Hizbullah’s demands would amount to political suicide.
Kiwan said the prime minister was currently in a “very critical position.”
“Hariri discrediting the tribunal is unthinkable,” she said, adding that Syria and Saudi Arabia were working out a formula that would likely see the Lebanese government express its reservations over any indictment accusing Hizbullah until clear-cut evidence is provided by the STL.
Khashan, meanwhile, considered Hariri’s comments to Ash-Sharq al-Awsat as having considerably weakened his position. “Hariri is already doing a good job of committing political suicide; his comments to Ash-Sharq al-Awsat stand as proof,” said the analyst.
Kiwan said Hariri completely bowing to Hizbullah’s demands will have drastic repercussions.
“Discrediting the tribunal will weaken Hariri’s position … He is not ready to do it,” she said. Such a move, Kiwan continued, would likely create major divisions among the Sunni community. “There will be divisions among Hariri’s Future Movement and the emergence of Sunni Jihadi groups which would embrace the cause.”
Another flare-up took place in late October, when dozens of women attacked two investigators and an interpreter dispatched by the STL’s Office of the Prosecutor to a gynecology clinic in Hizbullah’s stronghold in the southern suburbs to inquire about telephone numbers of patients there.
The clinic, owned by gynecologist Imane Charara, is believed to provide medical services to the wives of top Hizbullah commanders.
The STL vowed that the attack would not deter its investigators, while Nasrallah demanded that the government boycott the tribunal and warned in a speech on November 11 that Hizbullah will “cut off the hand” that dares arrest anyone of its members.
While Khashan highlighted that the court will not be able to apprehend suspects, Kiwan viewed any such attempt as the start of a violent confrontation. “The court should avoid making forced arrests because this will spark violent confrontations,” she said.
The two analysts agreed that the most plausible scenario was for the STL to carry out trials in absentia because Lebanon will not hand over suspects. “Trials will drag for years and are unlikely to reach any tangible conclusions,” said Khashan.
Several reports, including a controversial documentary broadcasted on November 22 by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, suggested that STL Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare will base his indictment on the analysis of telephone data records.
Hizbullah reiterated on several occasions that such a premise was unreliable, backed by Telecommunications Minister Charbel Nahhas, who said in November that Israel widely intercepts Lebanon’s telecommunications network and could tamper with phone records. Since 2009, Lebanon has arrested more than 150 individuals, including high-ranking telecom employees, on charges of spying for Israel.
This month, Israel remotely detonated spying devices it planted in south Lebanon, while the Lebanese Army, operating on a tip from Hizbullah, uncovered two sophisticated Israeli spying devices planted in mountainous regions of Lebanon.
Nasrallah had called on Bellemare not to overlook the premise that Israel might be involved in the Hariri assassination, and used an August news conference to unveil footage from Israeli spy planes of routes used by the slain former prime minister.
Amid a stalemate that has seen American officials vow the STL must continue, while Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has declared the tribunal “null and void,” analysts said only a comprehensive deal was likely to spare Lebanon the drastic repercussions of the indictment. Khashan said since Lebanon could not be considered an independent political entity, the country’s problems were a reflection of regional developments.
Kiwan said the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process, will definitely reflect on the situation in Lebanon.
“We need to reach a minimum level of accord in order to face the difficult times in the region,” Kiwan added.
The analyst said the Saudi-Syrian initiative, which is trying to sort out the post-indictment phase, should mainly focus on preventing any confrontation between the government and Hizbullah.
“The deal might include a minor government change, with the new government vowing not to handover suspects to the tribunal,” she said.
Thorny issues such as “false witnesses” will also be resolved through judicial means, according to Kiwan. “The country is moving toward a settlement, although not a long-term one,” she added. “Let’s call it a temporary truce.”

Conflicting reports on Saudi-Syrian initiative
December 31, 2010 /A Syrian source told Al-Liwaa newspaper in an interview published on Friday that the Saudi-Syrian initiative to end Lebanon’s political impasse will call for changing the government “to overcome the repercussions of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) indictment.” However, a Democratic Gathering bloc MP – who spoke on condition of anonymity – said that reports of government change “are wrong and irrelevant.” Saudi and Syrian officials have reportedly been communicating in efforts to reach a compromise that would resolve tensions in Lebanon due to reports that the STL may soon indict Hezbollah members in its investigation of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri’s 2005 murder, a move the party repeatedly warned against/-NOW Lebanon

Ghattas Khoury: No compromise will annul the STL
December 31, 2010 /“There is no [Saudi-Syrian] compromise that annuls the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL),” said Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s aide Ghattas Khoury in an interview on Friday. “The Saudi-Syrian compromise will find a way to deal with the STL, not to remove it,” Khoury told the Voice of Lebanon (100.5) radio.
Saudi and Syrian officials have reportedly been communicating in efforts to reach a compromise that would resolve tensions in Lebanon due to reports that the STL may soon indict Hezbollah members in its investigation of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri’s 2005 murder, a move the party repeatedly warned against-NOW Lebanon

Soueid: Lebanese want justice
December 31, 2010 /“No one can enforce his opinion on the Lebanon people, who demand justice,” said March 14 General Secretariat coordinator Fares Soueid on Friday.
He told the Voice of Lebanon (100.5) radio that “no one can affect the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL)’s indictment,” adding, “We reject any compromise reached outside Lebanon.”
Saudi and Syrian officials have reportedly been communicating in efforts to reach a compromise that would resolve tensions in Lebanon due to reports that the STL may soon indict Hezbollah members in its investigation of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri’s 2005 murder, a move the party repeatedly warned against.-NOW Lebanon

Marouni: March 8 suggesting the elimination of March 14
December 31, 2010 /“March 8 scenarios of the Saudi-Syrian compromise [to end Lebanon’s political impasse] suggest the elimination of the March 14 alliance,” said Kataeb bloc MP Elie Marouni on Thursday. He told LBCI television reports that the compromise will call for the rejection of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) are incorrect, adding that Prime Minister Saad Hariri will refuse such an agreement. Saudi and Syrian officials have reportedly been communicating in efforts to reach a compromise that would resolve tensions in Lebanon due to reports that the STL may soon indict Hezbollah members in its investigation of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri’s 2005 murder, a move the party repeatedly warned against-NOW Lebanon

Baroud: ISF officers should get their promotions
December 30, 2010
“Officers of the Internal Security Forces (ISF) should get their promotions by early 2011,” said Interior Minister Ziad Baroud in an interview on Thursday.
He told NBN television that he would be a “criminal” if he does not sign off on the Legislation and Consultation Commission in the Ministry of Justice permission to promote officers.
However, the law states that the minister signs off on promotions “after names are suggested by the ISF Command Council,” which, according to An-Nahar’s Thursday report is no longer valid because it has lost its legal quorum
On Thursday, An-nahar newspaper had raised the issue of a legal hurdle delaying the promotions of ISF officers.
-NOW Lebanon

Baroud’s dilemma
December 31, 2010
“Officers of the Internal Security Forces (ISF) should get their promotions by early 2011,” said Interior Minister Ziad Baroud in an interview on Thursday.
He told NBN television that he would be a “criminal” if he does not sign off on the Legislation and Consultation Commission in the Ministry of Justice permission to promote officers.
However, the law states that the minister sign off on promotions “after names are suggested by the ISF Command Council,” which, according to An-Nahar’s Thursday report is no longer valid because it has lost its legal quorum
Baroud, in another interview on Thursday, said the issue of promotions should remain away from politics.
He told LBCI television that he has not received a response from the Ministry of Justice’s Legislation and Consultation Commission on the matter.
“If this issue is not resolved by [2010], a [new] law will be required.”
Meanwhile, Future bloc MP Mohammad Qabbani spoke about the issue last night, denying rumors that the Future Movement was “putting pressure on Baroud.”
According to some March 8 members, ISF Director General Achraf Rifi – who is reportedly backed by the Future Movement – is pressuring Baroud into signing off on ISF officers’ promotions without the consent of ISF Command Council.
On Thursday, An-nahar newspaper had raised the issue of a legal hurdle delaying the promotions of ISF officers. However, Baroud said he is waiting for the Legislation and Consultation Commission in the Ministry of Justice’s permission to promote officers.
In other news, the Palestinians and Arabs will shortly bring a draft resolution before the UN Security Council calling on Israel to halt Jewish settlements in Palestinian territories and Jerusalem, a senior Palestinian official said on Thursday.
"We will go before the Security Council in the coming days to stop the Israeli settlements in the Palestinian territories, especially Jerusalem, capital of a Palestinian state, which is a red line for all Palestinians and Arabs," said Nabil Abu Rudeina, spokesperson of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
"We will present a Palestinian and Arab resolution," he told AFP from Brazil, where he is accompanying Abbas on an official visit.
Following a breakdown of direct peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians over settlements, the Arab League announced on December 15 that it would seek a Security Council resolution against Israel, ordering a halt to Jewish settlements.
It also called on the United States, which has vetoed resolutions against Israel in the past, not to obstruct such a move.
The draft resolution is due to come before the United Nations in January, when Bosnia takes the rotating presidency of the Security Council from the United States.
Direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians launched on September 2 were suspended three weeks later after an Israeli moratorium on settlement building expired and the Jewish state refused to renew it.
-NOW Lebanon/AFP

Lebanese flee Ivory Coast
December 31, 2010
Lebanese welcome relatives arriving from the Ivory Coast at Beirut’s international airport Thursday. (AFP/Joseph Eid)
Hundreds of Lebanese are fleeing Ivory Coast amid fears of violence and confusion over mixed diplomatic signals from Lebanon in the presidential standoff following an election in the troubled west African country.
"I left Lebanon 30 years ago because of the civil war, and here I am again running away from civil war," said Youssef Safieddine, who hails from the southern coastal city of Saida.
Safieddine, 58, runs a construction company in Abidjan. He is among a growing number of Lebanese, mainly entrepreneurs, who are leaving their homes and businesses over fears of civil strife.
Many say they were threatened after Lebanon's ambassador attended the swearing-in of Laurent Gbagbo, the controversial strongman who has refused to step down despite rival Alassane Ouattara being internationally recognized as having won the election.
Ali Ajami was the only foreign envoy to show up, aside from Angola's ambassador.
A government official in Beirut told AFP that Foreign Minister Ali Shami, acting of his own accord without cabinet approval, had instructed Ajami to attend.
"Shami's behavior has jeopardized the security of the Lebanese community in Ivory Coast," the official said, requesting anonymity. "What he did was a mistake."
Lebanon's government is paralyzed over a UN probe into the murder of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri and has not yet adopted an official position on last month's election.
And Ajami's attendance at the swearing-in contradicts Beirut's position at the UN Security Council. On December 8, the council voted overwhelmingly to endorse Ouattara as the victor in a move that non-permanent member Lebanon supported.
On Wednesday, Ajami filed a cable to Shami complaining that he and the Lebanese community had received threats after he attended Gbagbo's swearing-in.
"I have begun to receive news that some Lebanese in northern Ivory Coast [an area controlled by Ouattara supporters] have been receiving threats," read the cable, a copy of which was obtained by AFP.
Ajami added that he supported the decision to attend the swearing-in on grounds that the majority of the Lebanese in Ivory Coast live in areas under Gbagbo's control.
"But I would have hoped for a clarification from the foreign ministry to undo the harm that I have been subjected to," the cable states.
Ivory Coast hosts the largest Lebanese community in Africa, estimated at some 80,000 who mainly work in trade. The majority are Shia Muslims who hail from the country's south.
"The Lebanese are familiar with civil war," said Abbas Dakhlallah, who returned from Abidjan to his hometown of Qana in southern Lebanon one month ago.
"We experienced it first-hand ... and it is fear of civil war that has pushed hundreds of families to leave the Ivory Coast", said the 54-year-old building contractor.
Lebanon's privately owned carrier Middle East Airlines (MEA) has said it was ready to schedule additional flights from Ivory Coast if necessary.
Meanwhile, many Lebanese, mainly women and children, are opting to flee by land to neighboring states like Liberia, Ghana or Burkina Faso from which it is easier to book flights.
"My husband sent me and our three children back to Lebanon after we started to see gunmen in the streets," said Iman, who returned to Saida three days ago.
"We call him every day to check on him, but we are still terrified that something will happen to him," said Iman, not wishing to reveal her family name.
Mohammad Freim, a 32-year-old businessman who arrived from Ivory Coast on Thursday, said uncertainty and fears of violence were building up in the country as the standoff between Gbagbo and Ouattara continues."We are closely watching developments but we Lebanese are used to unrest and, for that reason, I will return to Abidjan next week whatever happens," he said.
-AFP/NOW Lebanon

Report: New War on Hizbullah: Drug-Trafficking
Naharnet/A new war will reportedly be declared on Hizbullah -- this time accusing the Shiite group of drug-trafficking. The daily Al-Akhbar newspaper on Friday, citing a retired French security expert that had worked for long on global-related security issues, said the word "drugs" is going to be replaced by the word "tribunal" in statements by Hizbullah opponents.
The expert believed the new approach aims at "criminalizing" Hizbullah, leading to strip the group of the Resistance glory.
Next, the campaign aims at expanding through media "reportages" reaching the mafia and cartels in Latin America that signals "close" cooperation with terrorist organizations before offering Hizbullah's name as the most prominent of these organizations that benefit from drug-trafficking.
Al-Akhbar said more than one European observer agrees with the French expert. They argue that sticking drug-trafficking accusation on Hizbullah "is the only way to put Hizbullah on the terrorism list, as it is almost certain that the (STL) indictment, whatever its content and the possible resultant reaction, will not allow for placing Hizbullah on the terrorist list for various reasons, among them was that this would assert the political objectives behind the tribunal."
Also, according to the daily, European officials' emphasis on Hizbullah's political role and their rejection of Washington' demand to include Hizbullah's name on the terrorism list, make it difficult to change attitudes upside-down unless the situation deteriorates in Lebanon and Hizbullah resorts to the use of weapons domestically – a matter practically ruled out by decision-making circles even if the situation worsens. Moreover, it became evident that the Israeli scenario which sees a "Hizbullah takeover of Lebanon" is not taken too seriously in Europe, Al-Akhbar reported. Beirut, 31 Dec 10, 08:21

Jumblat Hits Back at Harb: Your Draft Law is Madness
Naharnet/Druze leader Walid Jumblat hit back at Labor Minister Butros Harb who suggested banning the selling of land between the various sects in Lebanon.
"His project is madness. It represents a dead-end finale to Maronite politics," Jumblat said in remarks published Friday by the daily Al-Akhbar. "After having failed in politics and after having achieved some successes in the economy at the expense of tradition and heritage, we reached to what some had looked forward to – a phoenix-made society," Jumblat explained.
"After Maronite politics reached a dead-end through the alliances it made from 1958 till May 17, they turned Minister Michel Edde's suggestion to establish a land purchase fund to this bill," he added. Beirut, 31 Dec 10, 07:14

Hizbullah: Saudi will Impose Solution on March 14
Naharnet/Hizbullah MP Ali Fayyad said Saudi Arabia will impose a solution on the majority March 14 coalition.
He believed March 14 was suffering from two problems – first, they are outside the game and second, this camp does not want a solution.
"Let's wait for Prime Minister Saad Hariri's return to see how this would reflect on March 14 speeches … A solution is going to be imposed on them by Saudi Arabia," Fayyad stressed. Beirut, 31 Dec 10, 09:19

Pakistan makes two nuclear weapons available to Saudi Arabia
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 30, 2010/With an eye on the nuclear arms race led by its neighbor Iran, Saudi Arabia has arranged to have available for its use two Pakistani nuclear bombs or guided missile warheads, debkafile's military and intelligence sources reveal. They are most probably held in Pakistan's nuclear air base at Kamra in the northern district of Attock. Pakistan has already sent the desert kingdom its latest version of the Ghauri-II missile after extending its range to 2,300 kilometers. Those missiles are tucked away in silos built in the underground city of Al-Sulaiyil, south of the capital Riyadh.
At least two giant Saudi transport planes sporting civilian colors and no insignia are parked permanently at Pakistan's Kamra base with air crews on standby. They will fly the nuclear weapons home upon receipt of a double coded signal from King Abdullah and the Director of General Intelligence Prince Muqrin bin Abdel Aziz. A single signal would not be enough.
Our military sources have found only sketchy information about the procedures for transferring the weapons from Pakistani storage to the air transports. It is not clear whether Riyadh must inform Pakistan's army chiefs that it is ready to take possession of its nuclear property, or whether a series of preset codes will provide access to the air base's nuclear stores. The only detail known to our Gulf sources is that the Saudi bombs are lodged in separate heavily-guarded stores apart from the rest of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
This secret was partially blown by Riyadh itself. In recent weeks, Saudi officials close to their intelligence establishment have been going around security forums in the West and dropping word that the kingdom no longer needs to build its own nuclear arsenal because it has acquired a source of readymade arms to be available on demand. This broad hint was clearly put about under guidelines from the highest levels of the monarchy.
Partial nuclear transparency was approved by Riyadh as part of a campaign to impress on the outside world that Saudi Arabia was in control of its affairs: The succession struggle had been brought under control; the Saudi regime had set its feet on a clearly defined political and military path; and the hawks of the royal house had gained the hand and were now setting the pace.

Turmoil in Lebanon
Friday, December 31, 2010
By: Joseph Puder
FrontPage.
http://frontpagemag.com/2010/12/31/turmoil-in-lebanon/
Lebanon is in a state of turmoil. Hezbollah, the powerful Shiite-Muslim guerrilla terrorist organization, is threatening to take over the country if the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon indicts its members in the murder of Rafik Hariri and demands their arrest. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri (Rafik Hariri’s son) “walked” earlier this year in submission to the proverbial Canossa to bow before “Pope” Bashar Assad and asked “forgiveness” for his indirect accusations against the Assad regime, suggesting that it was responsible murdering his father. It now seems that Saad Hariri might swallow the bitter pill of truth about the murderers of his father by avoiding a confrontation with Hezbollah and “re-inviting” Syria back to Lebanon.
The confessional system in Lebanon, whereby a Christian holds the presidency, a Sunni-Muslim the prime-minister’s office, a Shiite-Muslim the speaker of parliament office, a Maronite-Christian the commander of the army post, and a Druze the army chief of staff position, is under siege.
The civil war in Lebanon has reduced the Christian majority in the country, as hundreds of thousands of Christians left the country and joined the large Lebanese-Christian Diaspora in the West.
The Sunni-Muslims led by Prime Minister Saad Hariri are seeking ways in which to enfranchise some of the 400,000 Sunni-Palestinian refugees in Lebanon to gain greater power in the country. The Shiite-Lebanese, in the meantime, have grown to become the largest confessional group in Lebanon, and are demanding the reshuffling of the National Pact of 1943.
Demographic changes alone, however, do not explain the turmoil in the Land of the Cedars. Neighboring Syria has reasserted its influence on Lebanon from whence it was ejected following massive demonstrations and international pressure in the aftermath of the assassination of Hariri. Iran, which supports Syria both militarily and financially, is also the singular force training, arming, and funding Hezbollah, and has become the major foreign power asserting its influence.
The perceived weakness of the Obama administration for having chosen to appease Iran and Syria rather than counter their growing influence over Lebanon, has undermined the emerging Lebanese democracy and the Cedar Revolution in particular. It has enabled Hezbollah to become the strongest military force in Lebanon, capable of intimidating the government and superseding the strength of the Lebanese army.
Revealed diplomatic dispatches via WikiLeaks support the assertion that the Obama administration’s pandering to Syria was an unrealistic fantasy. Obama sought to engage Syria and reactivate the Syrian peace track in order to distance Damascus from Tehran, and he did so against the advice from regional allies such as the Emirates Crown Prince Muhammad bin Zayed, who cautioned the Obama administration against wasting time on trying to pry Syria away from Iran.

Lebanese on the sidelines in this game of political football
Michael Young
The National/Dec 30, 2010
Since July, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, set up to try the assassins of the former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri, has occupied all the political space in Beirut. That won't end soon, as the indictment process, once it begins, could take months, after which the tribunal will prepare for the trial - probably in autumn.
Until now, the prosecutor of the tribunal Daniel Bellemare has yet to present draft indictments to the pre-trial judge Daniel Fransen, who must confirm them in writing. Mr Bellemare is on vacation, and once he returns to The Hague, presumably he will need more time to finalise his case before sending draft indictments on. If, and here we are being optimistic, he does so by the middle of January, officials at the tribunal do not expect confirmations before March or April.
During this period, an important development is likely to take place. The bylaws of the tribunal allow Mr Fransen to accelerate the confirmation phase by transmitting legal queries he might have to the appeals chamber for discussion. The hearings are public, and even if none of the indicted will be named, observers will get a sense of the tenor of the case through the subjects debated. Lebanese actors, like states involved in Lebanon's affairs, will be watching carefully to stake out their political positions before formal indictments are released.
Throughout the latter part of this year, the special tribunal has become a crucial instrument in a wider power game for control of Lebanon. This has principally affected, and been shaped by, the intricate triangular relationship between Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia. The divided Lebanese, their allegiances offered to one or several of these states, have been turned into, or rather have turned themselves into, a political football, their destiny defined by outsiders.
During the past year, Saudi Arabia has sought to ease Syria's political return to Lebanon in the hope that this would contain Iran's growing influence in the country, and that of Hizbollah. Last summer, King Abdullah flew to Beirut with Syria's President Bashar Assad in a clear message along these lines to the Iranians. Hizbollah was visibly displeased, and soon thereafter the party appeared to play a key role in provoking a military confrontation between friendly units of the Lebanese army and Israeli soldiers along the southern border, as if to show that the party had the final say on Lebanon's stability.
Mr Assad was delighted to be brought into the mix by the Saudi king, as it allowed him to exploit Saudi-Iranian disagreements to Syria's advantage. The Syrian president will not break with Tehran or allow Hizbollah to be decisively weakened by the tribunal, but he wants to regain the paramount role that Syria had in Lebanon before 2005, when the Hariri killing forced its army out of the country. To do that, Mr Assad needs to take back political and security levers held by Iran, which, through Hizbollah, controls the ground in Lebanon.
In October, Iran organised its rejoinder to the Assad-Abdullah visit, when President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Lebanon. The symbolism of the trip left no doubt that Tehran regarded itself as the dominant actor on the Lebanese scene. This confidence was echoed by Iran's ambassador in Beirut the following month, in an interview with the daily Al Hayat. He was asked in a roundabout way whether Syria was not more entitled than Iran to have the greater say in Lebanon. The ambassador evaded the question, before pointing out that the relationship between Lebanon and Iran was an ancient one. The tribunal is at the heart of this interplay of interests. Iran and Hizbollah want the Lebanese government to discredit the institution and terminate cooperation with it. Syria concurs, fearing the tribunal might undermine Hizbollah and perhaps point the finger at Syrian officials. But just as Mr Assad does not want to lose the Hizbollah card, he does not want Hizbollah to cripple Lebanon's prime minister, Saad Hariri, politically, since Damascus gains by playing the Lebanese parties off against one another. This has injected an unstable equilibrium in Beirut. Next page

A New Ambassador to Syria, but Little Hope of Change
By ROBERT F. WORTH
The New York Times
Published: December 30, 2010
WASHINGTON — When Robert S. Ford, a career diplomat with deep experience in the Middle East, presents his credentials as ambassador to Syria, he will be the first person to hold the job since 2005, and the public face of the Obama administration’s belief in engagement over isolation.
Robert S. Ford, at hearings in March on his nomination as ambassador to Syria. Senate Republicans blocked confirmation.
Yet few hold out much hope that Mr. Ford’s arrival in Damascus will change much. With Syrian-American relations still mired in mutual recriminations, his appointment seems to have more modest goals: among them, a better window on Syria at a time of rising tensions across the border, in Lebanon.
Mr. Ford was first nominated for the post in February, but Senate Republicans blocked his confirmation to protest Syrian policies in Lebanon, including continuing military support for Hezbollah, the militant Shiite group.
With the Senate now adjourned, Mr. Obama used his recess appointment powers on Wednesday to fill the Syrian ambassador’s job and five other posts. Those appointments included naming Francis J. Ricciardone Jr. the new ambassador to Turkey. His nomination was also held up in the Senate for months, over concerns that Turkey has grown increasingly hostile to Israel and closer to Iran.
Winning Senate approval of the nominations would have grown only more difficult with a shrunken Democratic majority in the wake of November’s elections. Mr. Ford was ambassador to Algeria from 2006 to 2008. He has also worked as political counselor and deputy chief of mission in Baghdad, and held a number of other Middle East positions.
Mr. Ricciardone has also had a long State Department career, including a term as ambassador to Egypt. Most recently, he served as chargé d’affaires and deputy ambassador at the American Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan.
Mr. Ford’s first priorities are likely to include the situation in Lebanon, where a United Nations-backed international tribunal is expected to indict members of Hezbollah in the 2005 killing of a former prime minister, Rafik Hariri. Hezbollah and its allies — including high-ranking Syrian officials — have warned that an indictment could set off civil conflict. They have pressed Mr. Hariri’s son, Saad Hariri, who is now prime minister, to distance himself from the tribunal, to no avail. The impasse has paralyzed the Lebanese government, which is always hobbled by political and sectarian struggles. The appointment of Mr. Ford may provide the United States with more diplomatic leverage and a better view on the conflict over the tribunal, analysts said.
“It’s certainly valuable to have someone in place in Syria if and when the tribunal issue is going to blow up,” said Paul Salem, the director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Center, in Beirut.
But Mr. Ford’s appointment does not herald any meaningful change in Syrian-American relations, which have been locked in mutual suspicion and hostility for more than five years. The United States withdrew its ambassador in 2005 after Mr. Hariri was killed in a car bombing in Beirut along with 22 others. Syria was widely accused of having orchestrated the killing, though it has vehemently denied involvement. The Bush administration imposed economic sanctions on Syria, as part of a broader effort to isolate the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Mr. Obama proposed to renew official contacts with Syria and Iran, saying the Bush administration’s policy of isolation had simply limited American diplomatic options without winning any concessions. So far, however, the engagement has been limited. American diplomats have visited Damascus, but have reiterated the same priorities as the Bush administration: protesting Syria’s military support to Hezbollah and Hamas, and its strong ties with Iran. Mr. Ford made it clear in his confirmation hearings that those priorities would not change.
Mr. Assad, who had hoped to persuade the Americans to separate the Israel-related issues from broader security concerns — like fighting jihadist groups — had voiced disappointment with the Obama position. “The appointment of Ford means Obama has shown some good will, and the Syrians will have to show some good will in return,” said Joshua **M. Landis, a Syria expert and professor at the University of Oklahoma. “It will ease communication, but it will not change the policy. From the Syrian point of view, Israel still dominates the relationship with the U.S.”

The keys to the Middle East
By Avi Issacharoff /Haaretz
Published 10:31 31.
Trapped between his roles as prime minister and son of the deceased, Lebanon's Saad Hariri will likely wait until indictments against Hezbollah are made public before calling off further investigation into his father's death
By Avi Issacharoff
It would not be overly dramatic to argue that Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri holds in his hands the keys to his country's stability, and to a large extent that of the entire Middle East, in the coming year. The son of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was assassinated in February 2005, and the man who led a very impressive popular protest movement that accelerated the expulsion of the Syrians from Lebanon (the "Cedar Revolution" ), has now reached a critical crossroads.
During the coming year, the younger Hariri will have to choose between insisting that the circumstances of his father's death be investigated - thereby endangering his own life and potentially pushing Lebanon toward a civil war that could end in a Hezbollah takeover - or, alternatively, submitting to the demands of the Shi'ite organization, which has already threatened his life, and publicly disassociating himself from the international tribunal examing the murder and its conclusions. He has already been depicted as a tragic Middle Eastern figure, trapped between his conflicting roles as ibn al marhum (the son of the deceased ) and as za'im al dawla (leader of the country ).
Family fortune
Saad Hariri was born in 1970 in the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh, where his family was managing a number of economic projects that made it one of the wealthiest clans in the Middle East and in the world. After completing his bachelor's degree at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., Hariri focused on business and the management of the family firm.
When Rafik Hariri was assassinated, on February 14, 2005, Saad was called back to Lebanon, where he chose to head the March 14 alliance (marking the one-month anniversary of the murder ) and the "march of the million" held on that date in Beirut to protest the continued Syrian presence in Lebanon.
After his camp's victory in the June 2005 elections, Saad Hariri preferred not to be appointed prime minister but rather to oversee the activity of Fouad Siniora in the position. But in the last elections, in June 2009, Hariri decided to lead the government following his victory. After prolonged negotiations, he established a cabinet that included members of Hezbollah, the very organization suspected of being behind his father's assassination.
Like his father, Saad Hariri is considered a protege of the Saudis. This week, however, Haaretz reported that Riyadh (in cooperation with Damascus ) has joined the effort to persuade him to disassociate himself from the international tribunal investigating the assassination. Thus far, Hariri has hesitated to issue an unambiguous statement on the matter. When the newspaper Al Diyar reported that he had decided to reject the tribunal's conclusions, he officially denied this.
But a compromise between the younger Hariri and Hezbollah, proposed jointly by the Syrians and the Saudis, demands that he disassociate himself explicitly from the court in The Hague, in return for Hezbollah's promise not to harm him. Apparently, if he rejects this proposal, Hariri will be depicted as having acted against the preservation of Lebanon's stability.
If, however, he accepts the proposal, it will disappoint an entire camp in Lebanon, which sees him both as a leader courageous enough to demand the pursuit of those responsible for his father's murder and as the prime minister who prevented the fall of Lebanon into Iranian and Syrian hands.
How to please Hezbollah
While the security detail around Hariri has been beefed up, if an organization like Hezbollah wants to make an attempt on his life, it will be able to do so. This is exactly what happened to his father, who, together with another 21 people, was killed when a car bomb exploded in the vicinity of his motorcade in Beirut. One of the suspects in the assassination was the individual who'd been in charge of Rafik Hariri's security arrangements and who became head of intelligence in Lebanon.
It is difficult to believe that Saad Hariri will enter into a direct confrontation with Hezbollah. Even though the group's leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, made a speech several days after the 2005 assassination, accusing those responsible for Rafik Hariri's death of betraying Lebanon, the current prime minister understands that even if Hezbollah were behind his father's murder he still won't be able to accuse it of treason. Saad Hariri is not the scion of a warrior family with a glorious past in combat, but rather a prince who inherited more than $4 billion.
It is impossible to overlook the family's importance and the key role Hariri's father played when he was alive. His mother has made it clear she wants to arrive at the truth behind her husband's assassination. Saad Hariri is likely to wait until indictments against Hezbollah activists are made public and then, after the status of the Shi'ite organization has been damaged, he will announce his wishes to preserve the unity of the country and renounce the demand to continue the investigation of his father's death.
But this may not satisfy Hezbollah. A violent coup in Lebanon and harm inflicted on members of the Hariri family both seem probable. Another option, of which Hariri is also aware, is that, in the event that the indictments are published, Hezbollah will likely try to divert public opinion from the case by dragging Lebanon into a military operation against Israel. Should that be the case, Israel has already made it clear that a Lebanese government whose members include Hezbollah people will become a legitimate target.