LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِFebeuary 26/2011

Bible Of The Day
Peter's Second Letter 2/10-19: "But chiefly those who walk after the flesh in the lust of defilement, and despise authority. Daring, self-willed, they are not afraid to speak evil of dignitaries; 2:11 whereas angels, though greater in might and power, don’t bring a railing judgment against them before the Lord. 2:12 But these, as unreasoning creatures, born natural animals to be taken and destroyed, speaking evil in matters about which they are ignorant, will in their destroying surely be destroyed, 2:13 receiving the wages of unrighteousness; people who count it pleasure to revel in the daytime, spots and blemishes, reveling in their deceit while they feast with you; 2:14 having eyes full of adultery, and who can’t cease from sin; enticing unsettled souls; having a heart trained in greed; children of cursing; 2:15 forsaking the right way, they went astray, having followed the way of Balaam the son of Beor, who loved the wages of wrongdoing; 2:16 but he was rebuked for his own disobedience. A mute donkey spoke with a man’s voice and stopped the madness of the prophet. 2:17 These are wells without water, clouds driven by a storm; for whom the blackness of darkness has been reserved forever. 2:18 For, uttering great swelling words of emptiness, they entice in the lusts of the flesh, by licentiousness, those who are indeed escaping from those who live in error; 2:19 promising them liberty, while they themselves are bondservants of corruption; for a man is brought into bondage by whoever overcomes him.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Israel could still strike Iran, despite Mideast unrest/By Aluf Benn/Haaretz/February 25/11
Little appetite for a government/By: Michael Young/February 25/11
The face of madness/Now Lebanon/February 25/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for February 25/11
US military advisers in Cyrenaica. Qaddafi's loses his air force/DEBKAfile
Pope sees Lebanon as model for Christian-Muslim coexistence/Catholic Culture
Syria: Iranian Warships Arrive With 'Message of Peace'/New York Times
Syria may have built atom site near Damascus-report/Reuters
Lebanon Threatened by Gasoline Crisis as Stations Shut Down Over Political Bickering/Naharnet
Libya Revolt May Clear Moussa al-Sadr Mystery/Naharnet
March 14 MPs to Announce Over the Weekend their Boycott of Miqati's Cabinet/Naharnet
Salameh from Washington: Lebanon's Banking Sector Not Targeted by U.S./Naharnet
3 Lebanese Suspects Extradited from Paraguay to U.S./Naharnet
Lebanese Dentist Arrested on Suspicion of Spying for Israel/Naharnet
Jumblat: Aoun Should Not Try to Eliminate Suleiman/Naharnet
5 Spanish Soldiers Preparing for UNIFIL Mission Killed in Accidental Blast/Naharnet
Saudi-Syrian Summit in Riyadh Next Week to Discuss Lebanon among Other Issues/Naharnet
MEA Cancels Flight After Libya Denies its Entry to Evacuate Lebanese Citizens/Naharnet
Miqati in Tripoli Friday Amid Revival of Proposal to Grant Finance Portfolio to Aoun/Naharnet

Pope Meets Sfeir at the Vatican
Naharnet/Pope Benedict XVI held talks with Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir at the Vatican on Friday, a day after meeting with President Michel Suleiman. A Vatican statement said Thursday that Suleiman and the pope expressed hope that a new government in Lebanon would bring stability to the country. Sfeir has submitted his resignation to the Vatican. It was not clear yet whether the pope had accepted the resignation. If accepted, it remains unknown whether the election of a new patriarch will take place before or after the election of a number of Maronite bishops to replace those who have reached the retirement age of 75. The bishops who have reached retirement age could still vote to elect a new patriarch as long as their successors have not been appointed. Beirut, 25 Feb 11,

Salameh from Washington: Lebanon's Banking Sector Not Targeted by U.S.
Naharnet/Central Bank Governor Riyad Salameh has said U.S. officials confirmed to him that no other Lebanese bank would be targeted by the Treasury Department. Salameh, who is currently in Washington, told Marcel Ghanem's Kalam al-Nass talk show on Thursday that the U.S. "isn't targeting Lebanon's banking sector." No other Lebanese bank would be targeted the same way the Lebanese Canadian Bank was designated by the Treasury Department as a primary money laundering concern. Earlier this month, Salameh said the Lebanese Canadian Bank has the absolute support of the Central Bank. The BLC was Lebanon's 9th largest by the end of 2009 with assets worth $5 billion. Its deposits stood at $4.4 billion by the end of 2009 while its profit that year reached $35 million. Beirut, 25 Feb 11,

Libya Revolt May Clear Moussa al-Sadr Mystery
Naharnet/Lebanon's Shiites are hoping that the revolt in Libya may shed light on the fate of their revered spiritual leader Moussa al-Sadr, whose 1978 disappearance soured relations between the two countries. "We have long been waiting for Moammer Gadhafi the tyrant to fall or be killed in the hope of knowing what happened to our Imam," said Hussein Maana, 51, a resident of the southern Lebanese village of Maaraka, the hometown of Sadr's family. Sadr's daughter Hawra, who is married to an Iranian, said earlier this week that the uprising in Libya has nurtured hope her father may be alive. The Iranian-born Lebanese cleric, who would be 83 in April, mysteriously vanished on August 31, 1978 while on a trip to Libya.
Abdel Moneim al-Honi, a former colonel in the Libyan army who took part in the 1969 revolution that brought Gadhafi to power, revealed this week that the Libyan strongman had ordered Sadr killed during his visit and that the cleric was buried in the southern region of Sebha. But members of Lebanon's Shiite Amal movement, founded by Sadr, believe he is not dead.
"We have information indicating that Imam Sadr is alive and is being held in a Libyan prison," Khalil Hamdan, an Amal official, told Agence France Presse.
He added that a crisis cell had been set up to follow the case since the uprising in Libya started on February 17. A soft-spoken scholar widely popular among Lebanon's Shiites as well as the country's other communities, Sadr's fateful trip to Libya was at the invitation of Gadhafi. At the time, Sadr was trying to negotiate an end to Lebanon's civil war (1975-1990), in which Palestinian factions were involved. Gadhafi was believed to be shipping weapons to the Palestinians and other groups and Sadr, according to reports, was hoping to convince the Libyan despot to refrain from stoking the unrest in Lebanon. But his visit to Tripoli along with two aides took a sour turn after he got into a heated argument with Gadhafi who ordered that the three men be "taken away," according to an indictment against the Libyan leader issued by Lebanese authorities. Relations between Libya and Lebanon have been at a low point since the cleric's disappearance, which dealt a heavy blow to the Shiite community. The NBN television station, run by Amal, has in recent days continuously broadcast archive footage of Sadr giving speeches and greeting people while portraying Gadhafi as a devilish figure with blood on his hands. Hizbullah's al-Manar television station has also portrayed Gadhafi as a murderer, running footage of victims of the uprising in Libya and some of the Libyan leader's rambling speeches.(AFP) Beirut, 25 Feb 11,

Lebanon Threatened by Gasoline Crisis as Stations Shut Down Over Political Bickering
Naharnet/A gasoline crisis was gripping Lebanon on Friday with no solution in sight amid the continued bickering between Caretaker Energy Minister Jebran Bassil and Finance Minister Rayya al-Hassan over prices. The new crisis turned eyes away from the political deadlock on the formation of Premier-designate Najib Miqati's government. Around 70-80 percent of gas stations were shut on Friday due to a shortage in gasoline reserves following the halt of fuel supply by importing companies, according to the head of gas station owners syndicate, Sami Brax. The companies have cut supplies because of continuing revenue losses as a result of Bassil's failure to issue updated prices on the cost of gasoline in tandem with the rising cost of oil in international markets. The dispute between Bassil and al-Hassan began when Customs authorities refused to lower gasoline tariffs in accordance with a proposed LL3,000 tax cut by the energy minister. Pro-Hassan officials argue that only the finance ministry has the authority to pass tax cuts. The crisis led panicky drivers to flood gas stations on Thursday and early Friday in a reminder of long lines of vehicles during the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbullah. Media reports said the shortage raised the black market price of gasoline in some areas to LL40-45,000 per 20 liters. The price currently stands at LL36,300 per 20 liters. In a statement released Friday, Bassil accused Customs authorities of failing to meet his tax cut request and made a 24-hour ultimatum to "take the appropriate decision" to find a solution to the crisis. He said he will file a complaint against the Customs Higher Council. Miqati's sources also told An Nahar daily that the prime minister-designate hopes the problem would be solved quickly and urges officials for joint efforts to "defend the people's rights." Beirut, 25 Feb 11,

March 14 MPs to Announce Over the Weekend their Boycott of Miqati's Cabinet
Naharnet/Sixty lawmakers from the March 14 coalition and its allies are scheduled to hold a meeting over the weekend to announce their non-participation in Premier-designate Najib Miqati's cabinet, An Nahar daily said Friday. The alliance took the decision to boycott the cabinet after Miqati didn't officially announce that his government would remain committed to the international tribunal and would resolve the issue of illegitimate arms – two key demands by March 14 to participate in the cabinet. After attending a meeting of March 14 leaders on Thursday night, Lebanese Forces MP George Adwan told An Nahar that the coalition's MPs would issue a statement following their meeting at a hotel in Beirut either on Saturday or Sunday. The statement would explain the decision of the alliance to boycott the cabinet, Adwan said. The meeting of the lawmakers will be followed by another conference at the Bristol hotel next weekend. It will be dubbed the "national council of March 14" that would issue a political document prepared by a committee from the general-secretariat and March 14 parties, An Nahar said. Beirut, 25 Feb 11,

3 Lebanese Suspects Extradited from Paraguay to U.S.
Naharnet/Paraguay extradited three Lebanese men to the United States on Thursday — two on drug trafficking charges and another who faces trial in Philadelphia for allegedly selling stolen cell phones and used cars to raise funds for Hizbullah. Paraguayan anti-drug trafficking agent Maria Mercedes Castineira told The Associated Press that the three men were put on a U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration plane after being held for months in Paraguayan jails. Nemir Ali Zhayter and Amer Zoher El Hossni were captured Aug. 6, 2008, in Ciudad del Este on Paraguay's "Triple Frontier" with Brazil and Argentina. Both were allegedly involved in trafficking cocaine to the U.S., Castineira said. Moussa Ali Hamdan was arrested last June 16 in the same Paraguayan city shortly after arriving from New York. Prosecutors in Philadelphia said Hamdan, a dual U.S.-Lebanese national, bought what he thought where stolen goods from a U.S. government informant. Hamdan allegedly exported more than 1,700 cell phones, 400 Sony PlayStation 2 systems and three used cars after the informant told him the money as well as counterfeit currency would go to finance Hizbullah. He faces 25 years if convicted of 31 charges filed in November 2009 in Philadelphia. Hamdan said after his arrest that he's been falsely accused, and that if he weren't Muslim he would not have been charged.(AP) Beirut, 25 Feb 11,

5 Spanish Soldiers Preparing for UNIFIL Mission Killed in Accidental Blast
Naharnet/A powerful explosion at a Spanish military academy killed five soldiers and wounded three others on Thursday when a bomb disposal drill went awry, the Defense Ministry said.
Soldiers getting ready to deploy as peacekeepers with the U.N. mission in south Lebanon were carrying out an exercise involving a controlled detonation of anti-tank mines when the ordnance exploded before the soldiers could move a safe distance away, a ministry official. "They were preparing to deactivate explosives in Lebanon. They were preparing to save lives in Lebanon when they lost their own," Defense Minister Carme Chacon said. The blast occurred at an army academy in Hoyo de Manzares, about 30 kilometers northwest of Madrid.
Chacon described the explosion as very powerful and said the victims included some of Spain's top experts in bomb disposal and troops who had just returned from service in Afghanistan, where Spain also has forces deployed. Three of the dead were from the Army and two were Marines. Spain has about 1,000 troops stationed in south Lebanon as part of the United Nations peacekeeping mission.(AP) Beirut, 25 Feb 11,

The face of madness
February 24, 2011
If ever there were a reason for why the current Arab awakening is a glorious, if overdue, phenomenon, it was encapsulated by the insanity of Moammar Qaddafi’s by-now-infamous speech on Monday night in which he urged “loyal” Libyans to “capture the rats” of subversion. It contained every cliché imaginable, ideas that have been peddled to the Arab street for decades and which have been in these past heady weeks exposed, to borrow from the Egyptian commentator Mona Eltahawy, as the opium of the Arab people.
The demonstrators in Benghazi, parts of Tripoli and elsewhere in the beleaguered North African nation have been accused of being on drugs and of being in the pay of foreign governments. But what else can a despot who has ruled a country with an iron fist for more than four decades do? The rhetoric reeked not only of desperation, but also of madness.
Yet, despite the bloodshed, we have seen magnificent acts of courage from the demonstrators who have braved the bullets and those soldiers who have refused to kill their countrymen. We have seen two fighter pilots seek political asylum in Malta rather than fire their deadly payload into the pro-democracy demonstrators. These are not the actions of state servants who believe their country is under threat from sinister forces hell-bent on inciting sedition. They are the actions of people who can smell the whiff of genuine change.
Qaddafi, like the other Arab rulers who were forced to step down, ruled his country with one weapon: fear. Now the fear of fear has gone. Even his ambassadors are speaking out against him. Now the international community must seize the initiative and bring all the pressure it can to bear upon the regime to step down and ensure a smooth transition of power with an interim administration.
For it surely must be all over for the Qaddafi family. The cult of the personality is over. The Arab world is shedding what German historian Jacob Burkhardt called the “veil woven of faith, illusion and childish prepossession” when he described the awakening consciousness of the Italian Renaissance. Indeed, we might just be experiencing an Arab Renaissance of sorts. For too long the majority of the Arab world has played second fiddle to their regimes. Now they want a say. They will no longer just accept and keep quiet.
All Arab nations must take a long, hard look at themselves. Ben Ali has gone. Hosni Mubarak has gone. It is likely that Qaddafi will be toppled. There has been violence in Yemen, Bahrain, Algeria and Iran. The people now have a voice, and they have seen what can be done if they present a united front to the totalitarian regimes that have taken much and given little. The days when ruling families would appoint ambassadors, key civil servants and army generals from their extended family or inner circle are numbered.
Their people have travelled and been educated abroad. They have witnessed democracy firsthand, and they will no longer be silent. They want to play a genuine part in their countries’ future. The message to the regimes is clear: The people want a more equitable say in how their nations are run. They will no longer be told what to do and think. They have a voice, and they want to be heard and treated with respect. They want a transparent government and a legal system that operates independently of the government. These are the demands of the Arab world in 2010. In Lebanon, we have different challenges, and the journey to fully-fledged democracy is still not complete. Even in this, the most democratic of Arab countries, we too still place too much emphasis on the personality. We too need to decide on what is good for ourselves rather than what we should accept. Our mechanisms are in place, but there is still an unhealthy disconnect between those empowered to represent us and how, in reality, we are represented.  If events in the region are anything to go by, the winds of change will blow for some time yet. The latest we hear is that in Libya the army is in disarray and fragmenting. This could either lead to the eventual expulsion of Qaddafi and his family, or it could lead to civil war. The Libyans must decide. We hope they choose wisely.

Little appetite for a government
Michael Young, February 25, 2011
The prime minister-elect, Najib Mikati, must be wondering how much latitude he really has to form a government. Even if the blockages are in Beirut, events in the Middle East have further complicated his task.
The most visible obstacle facing Mikati is Michel Aoun. The general has demanded an inordinately large share of ministers, enough to hold veto power over government decisions, as well as either the Interior Ministry portfolio or that of financial affairs, which the prime minister-elect wants to offer to his political ally, Mohammad Safadi. All efforts to persuade Aoun to compromise have failed.
The enormity of Aoun’s appetite is a headache for his allies; but it is also tactically understandable given the general’s political agenda and, more broadly, the regional context in which Lebanon finds itself.
Here’s why. It is increasingly apparent that the Syrian leadership is in no hurry to see a new government formed. With the situation unraveling regionally and the possibility that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon may indict Syrian officials in the coming weeks, Damascus is not keen to take steps in Beirut that might constrain its margin of maneuver while also inviting international opprobrium. The Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, is not about to make the same mistake he did when he extended Emile Lahoud’s mandate in 2004.
Assad probably has three major concerns. If Syrians are implicated in the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the president will want to ensure that any new Lebanese government is capable of shielding Syria. In all likelihood that means that Saad Hariri must in some way be represented, because only he has the standing to grant Damascus a certificate of innocence in his father’s killing. A government dominated by Hezbollah and Aoun could never do that. In fact it is more likely to intensify Assad’s tribulations if Syria finds itself confronting a hostile international community over the tribunal.
A second concern for Assad is that his regional allies are unhappy. We know that the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, expressed displeasure with developments in Lebanon when he met Assad in Aleppo a few weeks ago. That displeasure is apparently shared by another state that has supported Syria in recent years, namely Qatar. The Qataris saw their efforts to help find a solution in Beirut after the government’s collapse derailed by Hezbollah, which rejected outright the return of Hariri as prime minister.
Moreover, Assad knows that France is also keeping close tabs on Syrian steps in Lebanon. The French warned Assad when he visited Paris last that Syria would be held responsible for instability in the country. Assad cannot afford strained relations with France, Turkey and Qatar in the shadow of the Special Tribunal indictment.
A third concern for the Syrian president is the regional upsurge taking place against authoritarian regimes. Until now Syria has been spared unrest, but Assad cannot take chances. Any blame directed against Syrians in the Hariri affair and backed up by international pressure to deliver suspects to the tribunal could challenge the authority of his regime. This, in turn, could give ideas to those who stand opposed to Assad’s rule. In times of crisis the Syrians prefer to bide their time. Forcing too hasty an outcome in Beirut, they realize, could backfire.
Hezbollah’s priorities are different from Syria’s in this regard. The party is in a hurry to establish a government in order to officially terminate Lebanon’s ties with the Special Tribunal and move ahead with the investigation of so-called “false witnesses.” However, the party cannot readily ignore Syrian vacillation. Even if Damascus has remained ambiguous over the new government, not declaring itself for or against an early resolution to the current stalemate, this ambiguity has effectively slowed Mikati’s negotiations.
In light of this, Aoun’s intransigence makes more sense. If Syrian interests prevail and no government is formed until after the tribunal issues its indictment, then the general has no motivation to be flexible. And if Hezbollah is so keen to impose an agreement now over a government, then the only way it can realistically do so is by satisfying Aoun’s conditions. Aoun could tell his critics in March 8 that he has backed Hezbollah enough in difficult times not to have to undermine his own political ambitions today on the party’s behalf.
And what are Aoun’s ambitions? Evidently, to gain substantial sway in the government, impose himself as the sole Christian interlocutor, and eventually replace Michel Sleiman in office, under the pretext that the president’s election was unconstitutional. Indeed, under Article 49 of the constitution, and absent a constitutional amendment mandating an exception, Sleiman was obligated to resign from his post as commander of the army two years before being elected.
Had Aoun been named president in 1989, when the Taif Accord was being negotiated, it is doubtful that he would have been so scrupulous. But the narrow reality is that even March 14 politicians, for example Boutros Harb, contested Sleiman’s election on constitutional grounds. Aoun now sees an opening to strike, most probably by having 10 of his deputies appeal to the Constitutional Council, then using his veto power to hold the government hostage.
Aoun will probably be unsuccessful in the end, but that’s irrelevant. He regards the situation today as his last opportunity to satisfy his presidential aspirations and more. If he wants his political movement to survive, especially in the hands of his son-in-law, then Aoun needs to make personnel appointments in the administration, the army and the security services to protect his stakes. That is another reason why he needs to reinforce his leverage over the government.
Amid these intricate local and regional calculations, Mikati’s challenge is a singularly difficult one. He has nothing to gain from forming a government of “one color,” since he would end up being marginal in it, while March 14 is reportedly on the verge of refusing to join in a cabinet of national unity. So, for now, we seem to be in a deadlock. But can we expect Hezbollah to give in so easily?
**Michael Young is opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut and author of The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle (Simon & Schuster).

US military advisers in Cyrenaica. Qaddafi's loses his air force
DEBKAfile Exclusive , Hundreds of US, British and French military advisers have arrived in Cyrenaica, Libya's eastern breakaway province, debkafile's military sources report exclusively. This is the first time America and Europe have intervened militarily in any of the popular upheavals rolling through the Middle East since Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution in early January. The advisers, including intelligence officers, were dropped from warships and missile boats at the coastal towns of Benghazi and Tobruk Thursday Feb. 24, for a threefold mission:
1. To help the revolutionary committees controlling eastern Libyan establish government frameworks for supplying two million inhabitants with basic services and commodities;
2. To organize them into paramilitary units, teach them how to use the weapons they captured from Libyan army facilities, help them restore law and order on the streets and train them to fight Muammar Qaddafi's combat units coming to retake Cyrenaica.
3. The prepare infrastructure for the intake of additional foreign troops. Egyptian units are among those under consideration.
Click here for first debkafile report of Feb. 21 on the Cyrenaica insurgency.
Qaddafi was shaken up badly Friday, Feb. 25, when many of his air force commanders decided to no longer obey his orders or those of his commanders, debkafile's exclusive military sources report. This loss deprived him at one stroke of one of the key pillars sustaining his fight for survival against the opposition since Sunday, Feb. 20. It means he is short of an essential resource for recapturing the eastern half of the country where half of Libya's oil wealth and its main oil export terminals are situated.
Friday, NATO Council and the UN Security Council meet in separate emergency sessions to consider ways to halt the bloodletting in Libya and punish its ruler Qaddafi for his violent crackdown of protesters. debkafile reported on Feb. 22: The 22,000-strong Libyan Air Force with its 13 bases is Muammar Qaddafi's mainstay for survival against massive popular and international dissent. The 44 air transports and a like number of helicopters swiftly lifted loyal tribal militiamen fully armed from the Sahara and dropped them in the streets of Tripoli Monday Feb. 21. Thursday Qaddafi launched an offensive to wrest the coastal towns around Tripoli from rebel hands. Our military sources report that tanks pounded opposition positions in the towns of Misrata, 25 km to the east of Tripoli and Zawiya, 30 km west of the capital, under the command of Gen. Khweldi Hamidi, a Qaddafi kinsman.
In a bloody battle, the insurgents ousted Qaddafi's forces from Misrata, but his troops broke through to Zawiya and captured the town at great loss of life. There are no reliable casualty figures but hundreds are believed to have been killed Thursday on both sides. Later that day, the insurgents of Cyrenaica announced they were firmly in control of the region including Libya's main export oil terminal in Benghazi, the country's second largest town. Whether or not they decide to block the fuel supplies coming from Qaddafi-ruled areas, their seizure of the facility alone was enough to send oil prices shooting up again on world markets. Thursday night, Brent crude went for $117 the barrel in London and $103 in New York.
In a 30-minute telephone interview Thursday night, Qaddafi again charged that Al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood had instigated the protest uprising in Libya. He warned that the fall of Cyrenaica would open Libya to the establishment of a Muslim jihadi and radical rear base for attacks on Europe and incursions into Egypt.

Israel could still strike Iran, despite Mideast unrest
By Aluf Benn/Haaretz
http://www.haaretz.com/weekend/week-s-end/israel-could-still-strike-iran-despite-mideast-unrest-1.345608
February 25/11
The uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya have focused Israeli attention on the west, and overshadowed the disturbing news from the east: Iran has succeeded in repairing its uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz, whose functioning had been disrupted by the Stuxnet computer worm. The 1,000 centrifuges that were destroyed - about one-tenth of those in the installation - have been replaced by new ones. The Iranians are maintaining their rate of production and continuing to stockpile enriched uranium.
The reports on the success of Stuxnet, the attacks on atomic scientists in the heart of Tehran, and the assessment of outgoing Mossad chief Meir Dagan that Iran will not obtain a nuclear bomb before 2015, have created the impression that certain recent activities, combined with economic sanctions against Tehran, have succeeded in blocking the Iranian threat or at least delaying it by a number of years. The idea that Israel would embark on a preemptive war and bomb the atomic facilities in Iran appeared irrelevant.
This impression is deceptive and the optimism is unwarranted. We have not "won" yet and the military option vis-a-vis Tehran has not been dismissed. Its proponents explain that an Iranian nuclear bomb would change the face of the Middle East forever. After Iran will come Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and the identities of the regimes that will rule there are less important than the geopolitics: None of them will agree to the dominant status afforded to Iran by the bomb, and they will also want one. When the bombs proliferate, the danger of them falling into terrorist hands will also increase.
An Israeli attack will not be able to wipe out the knowledge possessed by the Iranian scientists and engineers. Experience does teach us, though, that it is hard to rehabilitate destroyed atomic installations. Iraq and Syria, whose nuclear reactors were bombed by Israel, could have rebuilt them elsewhere but did not, even though they had the blueprints and calculations in hand. The secondary structures discovered in Syria this week were erected at the time that the reactor was originally being built. Iraq tried a secret channel for enriching uranium, which did not come to fruition before the 1991 Gulf War derailed the effort.
By the same logic, an Israeli bombing of Iran, which, according to experts' assessments, would delay the project by three or four years, could also conceivably spell the end of it - just like in Iraq and Syria. The concerns Israel has about an attack on Iran have less to do with the chances of the success of the long-range action, and more to do with what would happen on the home front: Thousands of rockets and missiles launched by Hezbollah, Iran, Hamas and perhaps Syria as well, would hammer residential and economic centers, air force bases and Ben-Gurion airport. The economy would be paralyzed, there would be many casualties and the war could last for years.
Supporters of the attack do not disagree with this assessment. They just point out that Hezbollah is in any case able to attack Tel Aviv any time it wants, in response to a spontaneous shooting incident along the northern border or some other excuse - and then Israel will sustain damage for naught, without having destroyed Natanz .
The dispute over how Israel should deal with Iran has split the defense and policy elite. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are more in favor of taking action. On the other side are Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor, Vice Prime Ministers Moshe Ya'alon and Silvan Shalom, and also, apparently, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman; they are considered moderates on this subject, holding similar views to the coalition that includes Dagan, former Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi and Military Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin. The moderates prefer a combination of diplomatic pressure, sanctions and clandestine activities over going into battle.
What all the moderates including the (former ) chief of staff and Mossad head have in common, however, is that all of them hold advisory positions. The responsibility is on the statesmen and the public, and history will judge them if Israel does nothing and Iran goes nuclear. The decision as to whether to go to war will be borne by Netanyahu and Barak - not by their colleagues in the ministerial forum of seven or the heads of intelligence.
Dagan has publicly warned against an attack on Iran and has offered a wealth of arguments in support of his view. However, what he says could also have a different interpretation: With all the achievements he chalked up in his eight years on the job, Israel has not succeeded in stopping Tehran's nuclear project. Our intelligence services can contribute something to this goal, but clandestine operations do not win wars and cannot replace a military strike. At most, they can postpone it.
A successful strike requires the right combination of capabilities, international legitimacy and timing. Israel's capabilities are not known. Furthermore, there would not be formal legitimacy of any action, but "the world" would not necessarily excoriate Israel if it bombs Iran. In all probability, the condemnations would be inversely related to the success of the operation.
The U.S. administration, which opposes an Israeli strike, is still careful about saying an explicit "no." In conversations with top Israeli officials, the Americans offer their assessments of the situation and support the use of economic sanctions, while their interlocutors talk about the right to self-defense. Both sides maintain a sense of ambiguity. The administration does not want to be caught with prior knowledge of Israel's intentions, and for his part, Netanyahu does not raise tricky questions like: "Do we have a green light to act?" The messages are implicit and can be denied in case of complications. And the timing? In winter you don't go to war, according to the cliche, because of the clouds that impede the air force.
In a little while, spring will arrive and after that summer, with an election race for the next Knesset looming on the horizon. Menachem Begin bombed Iraq on the eve of the election in 1981, when public opinion polls were predicting a defeat for him, and when his rival, Shimon Peres, opposed that action (today, from his presidential seat, he also opposes attacking Iran ). The Iraqi reactor was destroyed and Begin won the election. Meanwhile, as their political activism wanes, Netanyahu and Barak could very well deduce that opposition leader Tzipi Livni will not decide to bomb and that a successful strike will help keep Likud-Atzmaut in power.
All this notwithstanding, in the meantime there are no signs that Netanyahu, who until now has stuck to a "zero risk" policy, will dare embark on such an adventure.