LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِFebeuary 25/2011

Bible Of The Day
Peter's Second Letter 2/1-11: " But false prophets also arose among the people, as false teachers will also be among you, who will secretly bring in destructive heresies, denying even the Master who bought them, bringing on themselves swift destruction. 2:2 Many will follow their immoral ways, and as a result, the way of the truth will be maligned. 2:3 In covetousness they will exploit you with deceptive words: whose sentence now from of old doesn’t linger, and their destruction will not slumber. 2:4 For if God didn’t spare angels when they sinned, but cast them down to Tartarus, and committed them to pits of darkness, to be reserved for judgment; 2:5 and didn’t spare the ancient world, but preserved Noah with seven others, a preacher of righteousness, when he brought a flood on the world of the ungodly; 2:6 and turning the cities of Sodom and Gomorrah into ashes, condemned them to destruction, having made them an example to those who would live ungodly; 2:7 and delivered righteous Lot, who was very distressed by the lustful life of the wicked 2:8 (for that righteous man dwelling among them, was tormented in his righteous soul from day to day with seeing and hearing lawless deeds): 2:9 the Lord knows how to deliver the godly out of temptation and to keep the unrighteous under punishment for the day of judgment; 2:10 but chiefly those who walk after the flesh in the lust of defilement, and despise authority. Daring, self-willed, they are not afraid to speak evil of dignitaries; 2:11 whereas angels, though greater in might and power, don’t bring a railing judgment against them before the Lord.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Thousands Protest After Murder of Egyptian Coptic Priest/DPA/February 24/11
Egyptian Armed Forces Fire At Christian Monasteries, 19 Injured/AINA/February 24/11
Iran’s latest propaganda stunt/By: Tony Badran/ February 24/11
A big hat to fill/By: Ana Maria Luc/February 24/11
Statements won't halt Gadhafi's crimes/By Michael Young/February 24/11
Regime Change in the Arab World: An Islamic Domino Theory/By: Dr. Paul Cole/February 24/11
Muslim Brotherhood sita at Egypt's new democratic table/By: David E. Miller/February 24/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for February 24/11
Report: Satellite images expose covert Syria nuclear facility/Haaretz & News Agencies
Iran warships dock in Syria after crossing Suez/News Agencies & Haaretz
Barak: Iranian ships crossing Suez part of 'wider scheme'/J.Post
Hamas Iran-made missiles hit Beersheba as Iranian warships dock in Syria/DEBKAfile
Photos point to second Syrian nuclear site/Now Lebanon
Qaddafi firms grip, prepares to retake rebellious Cyrenaica/DEBKAfile
Interior portfolio to go to independent figure/Daily Star
Second Suspected Nuclear Site Identified in Syria/Wall Street Journal
Sen. Kerry, Syria's Assad working to renew talks with Israel/Haaretz
Sleiman and Sfeir attend pope's unveiling of St. Maroun statue/Daily Star
Karam says he confessed to spying under torture/Daily Star
Chamoun says Interior ministry will not be given to Aoun/ iloubnan.info
Iranian naval ships arrive in Syria/Ynetnews
In Syria, Regime Squelches All Attempts at Protest/Middle East Media Research Institute
Majdalani says Hezbollah to control Presidency through Aoun/iloubnan.info
Saleh says Hezbollah, Berri and Jumblatt to facilitate cabinet formation/iloubnan.info
Saudi-Syrian Summit in Riyadh Next Week to Discuss Lebanon among Other Issues /Naharnet
New Commander for UNIFIL Maritime Task Force /Naharnet
Leader of Bahraini Opposition Movement Arrested at Beirut Airport /Naharnet
Fears over Gasoline Shortage as Lebanese Await for Update of Prices /Naharnet
In Rome, Sfeir Denies Political Reasons behind Resignation /Naharnet
Saint Maroun Statue Unveiled at the Vatican /Naharnet
Williams Reiterates Importance of Lebanon's Respect of International Obligations /Naharnet
Berri Holds Talks with Miqati on Government Formation /Naharnet
March 14 Likely to Announce Boycott of Cabinet Soon /Naharnet
Suleiman Meets Pope Benedict XVI at the Vatican /Naharnet
Cabinet Formation Delayed Amid Report Independent Figure Would Get Interior Ministry /Naharnet
Saudi-Syrian Summit in Riyadh Next Week to Discuss Lebanon among Other Issues /Naharnet

In Rome, Sfeir Denies Political Reasons behind Resignation
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir on Wednesday denied media reports that he has submitted his resignation to the Holy See for "political reasons."
In an interview with OTV in the Vatican on the sidelines of a ceremony to unveil the statue of Saint Maroun, Sfeir said: "They're free to say what they want, but the real reason is that I have reached the age of 90." The patriarch noted that "the biggest threat facing the Lebanese is their split." He added, however, that the Lebanese situation "is still better than the situation in neighboring countries." Asked whether he had concerns over a possible plan to naturalize Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, Sfeir said "some people in Lebanon might employ the naturalization (of Palestinian refugees) to achieve certain goals." "There are no contacts with Hizbullah anymore," the patriarch answered to a question, noting that "the Shiite sect constitutes a part of the Lebanese and we yearn to see everyone agreeing on an independent Lebanon." Addressing the Lebanese, Sfeir thanked those who aided him in his "tough mission." "I ask God to guide the Lebanese and help them in their country and in the Diaspora," the patriarch added.

Saint Maroun Statue Unveiled at the Vatican
Naharnet/The statue of Saint Maroun was unveiled at Saint Peter's square at the Vatican on Wednesday during a ceremony attended by President Michel Suleiman, Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir and Pope Benedict XVI. A large number of Lebanese MPs, officials and former lawmakers also attended the event which was followed by a mass held by Sfeir.
After the mass, a luncheon banquet was held in Suleiman's honor by the Maronite Diaspora Institution, during which he stressed the importance of dialogue and implementing the Taif Accord. He also highlighted the ties between Maronites and Christians with other sects in Lebanon, as well as the need to protect Lebanon as an example of dialogue and coexistence between sects. Suleiman is scheduled to meet with Pope Benedict on Thursday. The statue, donated by the late Antoine Shoueiri's family at a cost of 500,000 euros, sits alongside several other figures of saints.The five-meter-tall statue was sculpted by an Italian artist.Saint Maroun was a 5th century monk who after his death was followed by a religious movement that became known as the Maronites. His holiness and miracles attracted many followers. After his death in the year 410, his spirit and teachings lived on through his disciples. He is buried in Brad village, north of the Syrian city of Aleppo. Beirut, 23 Feb 11, 11:51

Sleiman and Sfeir attend pope's unveiling of St. Maroun statue
By Elias Sakr /Daily Star staff
Thursday, February 24, 2011
BEIRUT: Pope Benedict XVI unveiled Wednesday a statue of Saint Maroun, the founder of the Maronite Church and voiced prayers that the fifth century monk, whose followers took refuge in Lebanon, watch over the country and its people. Leading Lebanese officials, politicians and religious figures, President Michel Sleiman and Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir stood by the pope at St. Peter’s Square as the latter wished that peace, stability and security would prevail in Lebanon. More than 4,000 Lebanese from around the world have flocked to the Vatican over the past few days to participate in the ceremony, which falls on the 16th centennial anniversary of Saint Maroun’s death. The five-meter high statue, sculpted by an Italian artist, was placed in the last available site on the outer wall of St. Peter Basilica, and depicts Saint Maroun holding a walking-stick. “The founder of the Maronite Church” and “Unveiled with the blessing of Pope Benedict XVI and Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir” were inscribed on the left and right bottom side of the statue, respectively. The unveiling of the statue was followed by a Mass at the basilica, celebrated by Sfeir. In his sermon, the patriarch asked Saint Maroun to bless “Lebanese Maronites and illuminate their path wherever they may be.”
“The Maronites did not establish a new patriarchate, but rather selected a patriarch for a vacant seat. Maronites have reached many countries in the East and the West, and had their own bishops and priests who look after their religious education, while preserving their traditions and loyalty to Rome and the pope,” Sfeir said.
Sleiman called on the Lebanese to unite in order to preserve the country‘s model of coexistence as a guarantee for long-term stability. Sleiman added that this model should be based on inter-Christian and Christian-Muslim dialogue, to guarantee genuine partnership rather than mere power-sharing. Another guarantee to safeguard the Lebanese model, according to Sleiman, lies in strengthening the foundations of the country’s democratic regime based on freedom of expression and diversity, as well as the organization of Lebanon’s ties with its surrounding countries. The president added that the survival of Christians in the East was linked to their capability to express openness toward other communities within the boundaries of a just and free state, rather than resorting to isolation or reliance on foreign powers. Sleiman and Sfeir are scheduled to meet Thursday with the pope to discuss both recent developments in Lebanon and Sfeir’s resignation, according to some news reports. Sfeir submitted his resignation to the Vatican late last year, but it remains unknown when the election of a new patriarch will take place.
Some media reports indicate a new patriarch will be elected on March 8, but sources close to Bkirki have denied this, since Sfeir’s resignation has yet to be accepted by the pope.

Suleiman Meets Pope Benedict XVI at the Vatican
Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman met on Thursday with Pope Benedict XVI who is also scheduled to hold talks with Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir the next day. The pope unveiled the statue of Saint Maroun at St. Peter's square on Wednesday in a ceremony attended by Suleiman, Sfeir and scores of officials and personalities. The five-meter high statue, sculpted by an Italian artist, was placed in the last available site on the outer wall of St. Peter Basilica, and depicts the saint holding a walking-stick. Following a mass celebrated by Sfeir at the basilica Wednesday, Suleiman urged the Lebanese to unite to preserve the country's model of coexistence as a guarantee for long-term stability.
Beirut, 24 Feb 11, 14:40

Saudi-Syrian Summit in Riyadh Next Week to Discuss Lebanon among Other Issues
Naharnet/Informed Syrian circles revealed on Thursday that a summit between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Saudi King Abdullah may be held in Riyadh next week.
The Italian news agency AKI reported that should the meeting take place, it will be non-political, but it will be a congratulatory visit by Assad to the monarch after the latter's recovery from his health setback. The circles added however that the situation in Lebanon will be addressed during the talks, as well as the popular revolts in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen.The two leaders will also address the political developments that have taken place in the Arab world during the past three months. Beirut, 24 Feb 11, 16:27

New Commander for UNIFIL Maritime Task Force
Naharnet/Rear Admiral Luiz Henrique Caroli of Brazil assumed command of the Maritime Task Force (MTF), the naval component of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), in a ceremony Thursday aboard a ship at Beirut Harbor. The first Naval Force to be part of a U.N. peacekeeping mission, UNIFIL-MTF has been deployed at the request of the Lebanese government to assist the Lebanese Navy to help prevent the unauthorized entry of arms or related materiel by sea into Lebanon. MTF has been working jointly with the Lebanese Navy to that end. UNIFIL Force Commander Major General Alberto Asarta Cuevas handed over the MTF command to Rear Admiral Caroli aboard the Frigate Yildirim (Turkey) in the presence of representatives of the Lebanese army, as well as diplomats and officers from UNIFIL Troop Contributing Countries.
Asarta thanked Brazil for its contribution and praised the work of the MTF and the Lebanese Navy. "The MTF is playing a critical preventive role, warding off attempts at illegal arms trafficking and incidents on the line of buoy," he said. "The Lebanese Navy, despite constraints, has demonstrated, time and again, its professionalism and outstanding commitment towards securing Lebanese waters, in close partnership with the MTF." The force commander reiterated that sustainable peace is achievable in southern Lebanon. "The continued efforts of the MTF will be vital to seize the momentum and build on the achievements made thus far," he added.
"The Brazilian Navy is very proud to join the MTF and we hope we can help on the successful work that has been done," Caroli said. "The growing capacities of the Lebanese Navy allow us to see a promising future," he added. Since the start of its operations on October 15, 2006, MTF has hailed around 36,000 ships and referred nearly 900 suspicious vessels to the Lebanese authorities for further inspections. A native of Rio de Janeiro, Caroli attended the Brazilian Naval College in 1973 and rose in the ranks to the admiralty in 2007. He was assigned to a number of naval posts, served as Commanding Officer of the Aircraft Carrier "Sao Paulo", Riverine Patrol Ship "Pedro Teixeira", minesweeper "Atalaia" and the Brazilian Navy Fleet Training Center "Almirante Marques de Leao". He was awarded a number of Brazilian military medals.
Caroli earned a doctorate in Naval Sciences from the Brazilian Naval College and attended courses on naval warfare, strategy, policy, planning and management. He studied English at the University of Cambridge, England. UNIFIL-MTF currently comprises naval units from Bangladesh (2 ships), Germany (3 ships), Greece (1 ship), Indonesia (1 ship) and Turkey (1 ship). Beirut, 24 Feb 11, 15:44

March 14 Likely to Announce Boycott of Cabinet Soon
Naharnet/The March 14 forces will reportedly announce their official stance not to participate in the new government in the next 48 hours, paving the way for Premier-designate Najib Miqati to form a one-sided cabinet. Caretaker Labor Minister Butros Harb told An Nahar daily in remarks published Thursday that "nothing encourages (us) to participate in the cabinet particularly that the other team's stance from the March 14 principles is not clear." He accused the March 8 coalition of seeking to have "hegemony" over state institutions.
"We are heading towards announcing (our decision) in the next 48 hours. It is probably a negative response," Harb told An Nahar.
The caretaker minister stressed that March 14 was insisting on not repeating the mistakes of the previous government. "We hold onto the democratic system in which the majority rules and the minority opposes in parliament." Harb's remarks came as March 14 leaders confirmed to pan-Arab daily al-Hayat that the alliance's officials were holding talks to announce their unified stance from the cabinet. They said the alliance would most probably not participate in the government after Miqati made unclear stances on its demands to keep Lebanon committed to the international tribunal and resolve the problem of arms. The sources confirmed that the coalition had started to prepare for the March 14 Cedar Revolution anniversary on the basis of being the new opposition. Beirut, 24 Feb 11, 08:19

Leader of Bahraini Opposition Movement Arrested at Beirut Airport
Naharnet/Lebanese authorities arrested the leader of the Bahraini opposition Haq movement after arriving at Rafik Hariri international airport on Tuesday, An Nahar daily said.
Hassan Mashaima was arrested after Lebanese authorities discovered he was wanted by Bahraini Interpol, the newspaper said Thursday. Mashaima was one of 32 Shiite activists who received a royal pardon from King Hamad on Wednesday. He was being tried in absentia. He had been expected to return to Manama on Tuesday but did not, said Agence France Presse. Bahrain protesters have vowed not to budge from Pearl Square, epicenter of anti-regime demonstrations, despite the release of the leading opposition activists and renewed calls by the king for talks.(Naharnet-AFP) Beirut, 24 Feb 11, 07:30

Report: Satellite images expose covert Syria nuclear facility
Institute for Science and International Security says new intel proves site suspected as a nuclear facility serves as a uranium conversion plant, adds photos prove Syrian attempts to hide its nuclear attempts./By Haaretz Service
Satellite images show a Syrian nuclear facility thought to be related to the one Israel reportedly destroyed in a 2007 strike was in fact a uranium conversion site, a U.S.-based research institute reported on Wednesday. The report comes as Syria continues to claim that the Dair Alzour site bombed in a 2007 aerial strike was not a nuclear facility, while it also continues to prevent United Nations scientists from inspecting the site, with the last such visit taking place in 2008. Suspected Syrian nuclear facility reportedly bombed by Israel in 2007.
In late December 2010, Haaretz cited a report by the German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung, alleging that three news site linked to the one allegedly bombed by Israel in 2007 had been uncovered. On Wednesday, however, Washington's Institute for Science and International Security cited another Sueddeutsche Zeitung report saying that recent satellite images showed one of the sites to be a "small uranium conversion facility," adding that the site was "functionally related" to the reactor Israel reportedly destroyed in 2007.
The report, relating to a compound outside the town of Marj as Sultan, near Damascus, said that the facility was intended for "processing uranium yellowcake into uranium tetrafluoride (UF4)." "This facility could have been related to the process of making fuel for the planned al Kibar reactor," the report stated, citing the location of the reactor Israel bombed.
ISIS claimed, in addition, that the photos also uncovered Syrian attempts to conceal their nuclear attempts. Late last year, the United States warned Syria on Friday it may face action by governors of the United Nations nuclear watchdog if Damascus continued to black attempts to give its inspectors access to the remains of a suspected nuclear site in the desert.
U.S. intelligence reports have said it was a nascent North Korean-designed reactor geared to produce bomb fuel. Syria, an ally of Iran which is under IAEA scrutiny over its uranium enrichment drive, denies hiding nuclear work from inspectors. Glyn Davies, Washington's IAEA envoy, said in a speech posted on the U.S. mission's website on Friday it was "urgent and essential" that Syria heed UN inspectors' requests for extended access to sites, personnel and material.
"Absent clear action by Syria to cooperate fully with the IAEA, we are rapidly approaching a situation where the (IAEA) board (of governors) and secretariat must consider all available measures and authorities...," he said. Davies said earlier this year that a number of countries were beginning to ask whether it was time to invoke the IAEA's "special inspection" tool to give its inspectors the authority to look anywhere necessary in Syria at short notice. The Vienna-based, UN-affiliated body last resorted to such a prerogative in 1993 in North Korea, which still withheld access and later developed nuclear bomb capacity in secret. Syria is seen as unlikely to yield to a special inspection. Diplomats and analysts believe the IAEA will refrain from escalating the dispute at a time of rising tension with Iran, which the West suspects of seeking nuclear weapons

Barak: Iranian ships crossing Suez part of 'wider scheme'
By JPOST.COM STAFF /02/24/2011 14:07
Defense minister says that Iran wants to project assertiveness, but does not intend to use vessels to bring weaponry to Hezbollah. The two Iranian naval vessels crossing the Suez Canal was a show of power and part of a "wider scheme" to exert influence in the Middle East, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in an interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer Thursday. The ships' crossing was the first time the Islamic Republic has sent a naval convoy through the Suez Canal in over three decades. He added, however, that sending the naval ships through the canal does not worry him. He commented that the US and Israel both send ships through the canal, and that the crossing cannot avoid Iranian movement, "as it's a frigate and some support vessel with some cadets on it." Barak said that, "I don't like it, but I don't think that any one of us should be worried by it." The defense minister commented that Iran was trying to assert their power in the region by sending ships to the Syrian port, and that the move was nothing more than them "projecting...self-confidence and certain assertiveness in the region." Despite reports that Iran may have been bringing advanced weaponry to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Barak suggested that the focus of the trip is for Iranian cadets to visit Syria. In regards to the Iranian nuclear threat, the defense minister said that the Iranians were "moving slower than expected," having encountered "certain hold ups along the way." Barak estimated that it would be "several years" before Iran developed a nuclear weapon. The head of IDF Military Intelligence Maj-Gen. Aviv Kohavi expressed similar sentiments in January, when he said it would take more than two years for Iran to develop a nuclear missile. He had said that even if the Iranians could develop a nuclear bomb within a year or two, they did not currently have the technology to create a missile for delivering the bomb, a development which would take considerably more time.

Hamas Iran-made missiles hit Beersheba as Iranian warships dock in Syria
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 24, 2011, Israel's security leaders ought not to have been surprised when Hamas fired two long-range Iranian-made Grad missiles Wednesday night, Feb. 23 at the Negev cities of Beersheba and Netivot. The attack occurred exactly when Iranian Navy commander Adm. Habibollah Sayyari was due in Syria's Latakia port to attend the welcoming party for the two Iranian warships which made it through the Suez Canal without US or Israeli interference. It also marked a fresh, redoubled Hamas offensive against Israel.
The occupants of the Beersheba home, hit by the first long-range Grad surface missile to reach the Negev city from the Gaza Strip (30 km away) since Israel's Cast Led campaign of 2009, saved themselves by using the seconds between the warning siren and the explosion to take shelter in a bomb-proof room. That was the only part of their home to survive the blast. Eleven shock victims were hospitalized along the battered street.
The town of Netivot was spared by the Grad falling outside the built-up area.
Earlier that day, a shoot-out flared at the Karni crossing when a Palestinian gang laid explosives at the border fence and followed up with mortar fire. IDF border patrols and tanks crews returned the fire, injuring 11 Palestinians. A second round of Palestinian mortar fire followed against a Shaar Hanegev kibbutz.
No Israelis were hurt in this round of incidents.
Wednesday night, Israel put the communities within range of the Gaza Strip, including the cities of Beersheba, Netivot, Ofakim, Sderot, Ashkelon and Ashdod, on heightened alert status for further Palestinian attacks. That night, Israeli air strikes hit a Jihad Islami missile team and then spread out to bomb Hamas command centers, which had meanwhile been hurriedly evacuated in expectation of Israel's routine aerial reprisal.
debkafile's military sources report that more aggression from the Gaza Strip is inevitable given the Netanyahu government's feeble or non-response despite the urgent need to shore up Israel's security situation continuously eroded by the turbulence in Arab capitals.
Even though it was obvious that Hamas had been strengthened by Hosni Mubarak's fall in Egypt, Israel stood by as Hamas rampaged out of Gaza and into Sinai and the Egyptian-Israeli border areas – even when a Hamas special team on Feb. 5 blew up the Egyptian pipeline which conveyed 43 percent of Israel's gas needs. Replacement sources have added close to $400 million a month to Israel's energy bill. All Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu did was to permit an additional Egyptian troop brigade and a half to enter Sinai, some of them to guard the pipeline, which Cairo shows no sign of repairing. Western military sources report that the Iran-backed Palestinian Hamas is further exploiting the shaky situation in Cairo and Israeli inaction to double or even triple the quantities of weapons smuggled via the Suez Canal and Sinai into the Gaza Strip. One Israeli officer said he had never before seen surface-to-surface missiles, anti-aircraft missiles and anti-tank missiles secreted into Gaza in such bulk. The free passage afforded the two Iranian warships for transiting the Suez Canal Tuesday, Feb. 22 – without Egypt or US and Israeli warships even inspecting their cargoes - has encouraged Tehran to press on with its expansionist ambitions. Hamas understood that its redoubled offensive against Israel would be most welcome. The Palestinian extremists held their fire until Tehran announced the warships had put into Latakia Wednesday and the arrival of Iran's navy chief that night. And then they went into action – first against an IDF border patrol, then to fire Grads at Beersheba and Netivot.
Israel's policy-makers have chosen to ignore the role of those two vessels as the thin edge of a wedge: They are to set up a permanent base on the Mediterranean with more Iranian naval vessels continuing to pass through the Suez Canal and joining them at Latakia. Hamas is counting on Iran building up its military presence and on Israel to stand by helplessly – just as it did when its request to the new military rulers of Egypt to stop the Iranian flotilla's passage through Suez went unanswered. The Palestinians ruling Gaza are sending Grad missiles as messengers to Israel that they now enjoy Iranian support close by in the Mediterranean. debkafile's military sources wonder if this message will not finally act as a wakeup call for Jerusalem.

Iran’s latest propaganda stunt
Tony Badran, February 24, 2011
For the first time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, two Iranian warships crossed the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean and docked in Syria on Wednesday, where a joint military reception is scheduled to take place. There is no doubt that the Iranian move is a carefully-timed, opportunistic propaganda stunt aimed at sending several messages in multiple directions. Moreover, Iran is testing the new political situation in Egypt as it relates to the future of Cairo’s security cooperation with Israel. However, whether this presages a bolder operational objective down the road – and whether such an objective is feasible – is far less certain.
It’s not been lost on any observer that Tehran’s decision to send these two ships – a frigate and an accompanying supply vessel – through the Suez Canal was an integral part of the narrative the Iranian regime has been conveying in an attempt to control the perceptions surrounding the region’s unfolding developments.
The Iranians were quick to paint the developments in Egypt in particular as the manifestation of an Islamic awakening, following the example set by Iran’s own revolution. In so doing, Tehran was casting itself as the leader of a popular Islamic wave that would overturn the American regional architecture and replace it with an Iran-led order. The message is that America’s allies are falling, and Iran is reaping the benefits, increasing its regional sway.
Hence, the dispatch of the naval vessels served as a display of Iranian confidence and power projection. Furthermore, the intended symbolism of the shift in the regional power structure was rather obvious: Whereas a year ago it was an Israeli ship that crossed the Suez Canal on to the Red Sea, in this new era, it’s the Iranian navy that’s dispatching its vessels in the opposite direction, docking to Israel’s north on the Syrian coast.
Beyond the propaganda, the Iranians also wanted to test the interim Egyptian military government, as well as the pulse of the post-Hosni Mubarak political landscape and its attitude toward the peace treaty with Israel, the policy toward Gaza and Hamas, and Egypt’s security cooperation with Israel. By pushing the passage of their vessels at this moment, the Iranians calculated that their move would appear to have clinched an Egyptian break with the Mubarak-era policies.
Furthermore, although the Iranians are aware that this is the same Egyptian army that has been behind the Mubarak regime, they also realize that the military government has to contend with a host of more pressing domestic issues. In addition, they are probing Egyptian antipathy to the peace treaty with Israel, while banking that the treaty’s association with Mubarak will push his successors to maintain at least a cooler posture toward it, if only for domestic purposes.
On this count, Tehran’s calculation may not be off. To be sure, while this stunt may have caused a diplomatic headache for the Egyptians, it also provided them with an opportunity to send a message of their own to the US and Israel that they no longer can be taken for granted. On the other hand, it’s also been pointed out that Cairo didn’t have much of a choice, as it was required to allow the vessels’ passage, once Iran paid the entry fee.
However, all these factors notwithstanding, does the passage of the Iranian warships have concrete operational value? It’s quite clear that Iran’s modest, aging navy poses no serious conventional threat. That’s why one theory holds that the Iranian intention is to establish a direct naval route to smuggle arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The comment by State Department spokesman P. J. Crowley seemed to reflect concerns about this possibility. “It’s not really about the ships,” Crowley said. “It’s about what the ships are carrying, what’s their destination, what’s the cargo on board, where’s it going, to whom and for what benefit.”
Of course, the concern goes beyond this particular convoy to future ones, should Iran actually decide to make this a routine practice. However, there is skepticism regarding Iran’s capabilities to sustain such an operation. After all, one can reasonably ask, if the Egyptians legally had no option but to let them pass, why didn’t the Iranians try to pull this stunt before? But even should it somehow obtain the logistical capacity, Iran would still face several hurdles, not least of which is the Israeli military.
Indeed, Israel’s defense minister, Ehud Barak, was quite clear about how his country would act in that situation, openly declaring that were the two vessels “bringing rockets or weapons or explosives to Hamas or Hezbollah, we would have probably acted against them.” And while some might think that the Israeli navy – or anyone else for that matter – would have to think twice before intercepting an Iranian vessel, they seem to forget that there are other ways to sabotage such decrepit convoys.
In any case, one would think that the US, as it carefully monitors the effects of the region’s upheavals on its strategic interests, would not stand by and allow Iran to set up an unmolested naval pipeline to Hezbollah. However, even if Iran’s stunt has little operational value at this stage, Washington has its work cut out for it if it is to make sure that Tehran doesn’t turn its propaganda to reality.
**Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Iran warships dock in Syria after crossing Suez
By News Agencies /An eyewitness says two Iranian warships arrived on Thursday at Syria's Latakia seaport.
The witness spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. The Iranian navy's replenishment vessel IS Kharg passes through the Suez canal at Ismailia, Egypt on Feb.22, 2011. In a move that has been referred to by Israel as a "provocation", the ships sailed through Egypt's Suez Canal. The northern mouth of the canal is just 100 kilometers from Israel. The vessels are the first Iranian naval ships to enter the Suez Canal since the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. The ships entered the canal at 5:45 A.M. on Wednesday and passed into the Mediterranean at 3:30 P.M., a source at the Suez Canal Authority told Reuters. “Their return is expected to be on March 3,” the source added. The voyage had raised tensions of a further destabilization in the Middle East, while the region is already reeling from the unprecedented wave of anti-government rebellions. Iran has in the past been accused of smuggling money and weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel has said that they are closely monitoring the ships' voyage. The chief of Iran's navy on Wednesday rejected Israeli criticism of the ship's voyage, saying the vessels pose no threat to the region. Iran has said the ships are in Syria for a training mission. The ships are "carrying a message of peace to the nations of the world" the commander of the Iranian navy Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said on Thursday. Israel Radio quoted Iran's ambassador to Lebanon on Thursday, who denied reports that the two ships were carrying advanced arms destined for Hezbollah. Vice Prime Minister Moshe Ya’alon described the move as “an Iranian provocation,” speaking to Channel 2 television on Wednesday.
“When you look at the Middle East, wherever the Iranians weigh in, the situation is never good,” he said. “It certainly does not bode well, but these two ships are not an immediate threat against us.”

Nuslim Brotherhood sita at Egypt's new democratic table
By DAVID E. MILLER / THE MEDIA LINE /J.Post
02/23/2011 22:08
The group's new political party, Freedom and Justice, faces an uphill struggle; group has yet to define its positions. The Muslim Brotherhood – which had been the standard bearer of Egypt’s opposition until non-aligned protesters forced President Husni Mubarak out of office this month – is forming a political party, as it seeks to ensure it place for itself in the country’s new democratic politics. But the new party, to be called Freedom and Justice, faces an uphill struggle. The Brotherhood officially remains banned in Egypt and its leaders declined to detail what its positions will be or even state with certainty whether non-Muslims will be able to hold leadership positions. Analysts say many Egyptians are suspicious of its Muslim agenda.
Moreover, once the only significant opposition to the rule of Mubarak and his predecessors – Gamal Abd Al-Nasser and Anwar Sadat – was largely sidelined during the three weeks of protests that shook Egypt and now faces a plethora of new rivals for Egyptian votes.
"This is a major political maneuver," Gamal Abd Al-Gawad, director of Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, told The Media Line. "The Brotherhood is trying to establish itself as a legitimate power in society, which enjoys legal status." The US and Israel will be carefully monitoring the Brotherhood’s success. They fear the group aims to recast Egypt is the mold of Islamic Iran, tearing up the 1979 peace treaty with Israel and opposing American interests in the region. Some analysts have questioned its fealty to democratic values and fear it will use elections to seize power. So far, however, the Brotherhood has presented itself as a force for Islamic moderation and has
The announcement of the new party on the group’s website was brief, and Muhammad Badi', its general guide, added little at a Monday press conference. "This move has been taken in response to the hopes and aspirations of the Egyptian people for a better future and a bright tomorrow,” he said.
The Brotherhood has been illegal in Egypt since it was alleged to have been involved in an assassination attempt on Nasser in 1954. Nevertheless, officially running as independents, 88 Brotherhood candidates won seats in the People's Assembly, occupying 20% of Egypt's lower house, in 2005 elections. The ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) dominated parliament, but the Brotherhood dwarfed the other, legal opposition parties.
The US pressured Mubarak that year to conduct a freer and fairer vote than he had allowed in the past, but by 2010 the Egyptian leader reverted back to fixing elections, and the Brotherhood was crushed by the NDP. The group began the move to form a party in August 2007, but did not submit the legal paperwork to Egypt's political party committee, headed by Safwat Sharif, a Mubarak loyalist.
With a transitional government promising elections later this year, other opposition groups are coming back to life or being formed. Earlier this week, an Egyptian court authorized the registration of the Wasat, or Center Party, headed by Abul-Alaa Madi and Issam Sultan, two Brotherhood breakaways. On Tuesday, it held a press conference
The Freedom and Justice Party will be entirely independent of the Brotherhood, Muhammad Al-Katatni, a member of the group's Guidance Council who has been named the new party’s chairman, told Egyptian daily Al-Masry Al-Youm on Wednesday. Under current Egyptian law, the party can still not run, because it is based on a "religious or sectarian tendency."
Abd Al-Gawad said the Brotherhood was making a special effort to "play by the rules" in order to dispel internal and external anxieties.
"The Brotherhood is trying to avoid scaring the Egyptian public, because most Egyptians, like many foreign players, are afraid of it," he said. "The Brotherhood has announced it will not appoint a candidate for president nor will it seek a majority in parliament, trying to look magnanimous." But on Wednesday Katatni did not rule out the possibility of Freedom and Justice nominating a presidential candidate. "It is hard to tell right now. When the party is formed, it will decide the matter," he told Al-Masry Al-Youm.
Abd Al-Gawad said that although a major player in the Egyptian scene, the Muslim Brotherhood was by no means the leading force in Egypt. He said the Brotherhood was scared of mounting an aggressive political campaign only to lose, so it has adopted the "patronizing" tactic of treading carefully.
Nevertheless, Maye Kassem, a political science professor at the American University in Cairo, said she supported the Brotherhood's decision to form a party, saying it would put the group firmly inside into Egypt's political arena and force it to conform to the country's rules. "The exclusion of the Brotherhood has given it an aura that other political parties in Egypt never enjoyed," Kassem told The Media Line. "Now they will no longer be perceived as persecuted martyrs." While the Brotherhood right now enjoyed its effective organization and grassroots social work, especially with the poor, other parties – even in the socialist left - could be as popular if they were equally well-organized, Kassem maintained.
The Brotherhood indicated it has reconsidered its previous stance of excluding Coptic Christians and women from leadership roles in Egypt. General Guide Badi' said the new party would be "open to all Egyptians," which led Coptic intellectual Rafiq Habib to publicly entertain the idea of joining it in an interview with Al-Masry Al-Youm this week.
Leading clerics such as Egyptian-born Sheikh Yusuf Al-Qaradawi and Tunisian Islamic leader Rashed Al-Ghanoushi were approached by the Brotherhood but preferred not to rule on whether a Copt or a woman can run for president, saying the matter was better left silent. Qaradawi, a popular Egyptian cleric based in Qatar, turned down an offer to lead the Brotherhood in 2004, saying the position would constrain his actions.

Egyptian Armed Forces Fire At Christian Monasteries, 19 Injured
2-24-2011 /(AINA) -- For the second time in as many days, Egyptian armed force stormed the 5th century old St. Bishoy monastery in Wadi el-Natroun, 110 kilometers from Cairo. Live ammunition was fired, wounding two monks and six Coptic monastery workers. Several sources confirmed the army's use of RPG ammunition. Four people have been arrested including three monks and a Coptic lawyer who was at the monastery investigating yesterday's army attack.
Monk Aksios Ava Bishoy told activist Nader Shoukry of Freecopts the armed forces stormed the main entrance gate to the monastery in the morning using five tanks, armored vehicles and a bulldozer to demolish the fence built by the monastery last month to protect themselves and the monastery from the lawlessness which prevailed in Egypt during the January 25 Uprising.
"When we tried to address them, the army fired live bullets, wounding Father Feltaows in the leg and Father Barnabas in the abdomen," said Monk Ava Bishoy. "Six Coptic workers in the monastery were also injured, some with serious injuries to the chest." The injured were rushed to the nearby Sadat Hospital, the ones in serious condition were transferred to the Anglo-Egyptian Hospital in Cairo. Father Hemanot Ava Bishoy said the army fired live ammunition and RPGs continuously for 30 minutes, which hit part of the ancient fence inside the monastery. "The army was shocked to see the monks standing there praying 'Lord have mercy' without running away. This is what really upset them," he said. "As the soldiers were demolishing the gate and the fence they were chanting 'Allahu Akbar' and 'Victory, Victory'". He also added that the army prevented the monastery's car from taking the injured to hospital.
The army also attacked the Monastery of St. Makarios of Alexandria in Wady el-Rayan, Fayoum, 100 km from Cairo. It stormed the monastery and fired live ammunition on the monks. Father Mina said that one monk was shot and more than ten have injuries caused by being beaten with batons. The army demolished the newly erected fence and one room from the actual monastery and confiscated building materials. The monastery had also built a fence to protect itself after January 25 and after being attacked by armed Arabs and robbers leading to the injury of six monks, including one monk in critical condition who is still hospitalized. The army had given on February 21 an ultimatum to this monastery that if the fence was not demolished within 48 hours by the monks, the army would remove it themselves (AINA 2-23-2011).The Egyptian Armed Forces issued a statement on their Facebook page denying that any attack took place on St. Bishoy Monastery in Wady el-Natroun, "Reflecting our belief in the freedom and chastity of places of worship of all Egyptians." The statement went on to say that the army just demolished some fences built on State property and that it has no intention of demolishing the monastery itself (video of army shooting at Monastery).
Father Hedra Ava Bishoy said they are in possession of whole carton of empty bullet shells besides the people who are presently in hospital to prove otherwise.
The army attack came after the monks built a fence for their protection after the police guards left their posts and fled post the January 25th Uprising and after being attacked by prisoners who were at large, having escaped from their prisons during that period.
"We contacted state security and they said there was no police available for protection," said Father Bemwa," So we called the Egyptian TV dozens of times to appeal for help and then we were put in touch with the military personnel who told us to protect ourselves until they reach us." He added that the monks have built a low fence on the borders of one side of the monastery which is vulnerable to attacks, on land which belongs to the monastery, with the monks and monastery laborers keeping watch over it 24 hours a day.
The monks of St. Bishoy are now holding a sit-in in front of monastery in protest against the abuse of the army by using live bullets against civilians
Nearly 7000 Copts staged a peaceful rally in front of the Coptic Cathedral in Cairo, where Pope Shenouda III was giving his weekly lecture (video), after which they marched towards Tahrir Square to protest the armed forces attacks on Coptic monasteries.
By Mary Abdelmassih
© 2011, Assyrian International News Agency. All Rights Reserved. Terms of Use.

Thousands Protest After Murder of Egyptian Coptic Priest
2-24-2011 /Cairo (DPA) -- Thousands of Coptic Christians demonstrated in the city of Assiut in Upper Egypt for the second day on Wednesday, after a priest was found stabbed to death inside his home, media reported. Protesters demanded the arrest of the murderers chanting, 'With our souls and blood we sacrifice our lives to the cross,' the Daily News Egypt reported on its website. Police found the body of Dawoud Botrous, pastor of Prince Tadros El-Shatbi church, in his home in Shatab village near Assiut on Tuesday. Preliminary investigations indicated that he had been murdered two to three days ago in a possible attempted robbery. People had grown concerned for the priest after he was absent from the church's weekly sermon on Sunday. Over three thousand protesters marched through Assiut on Tuesday night after Botrous' body was found. Some clashes erupted between Christian demonstrators and Muslim shopkeepers during the protests. Official figures estimate that Christians comprise between 10 to 15 per cent of Egypt's population. Religious tensions in Egypt have been especially high since a bomb attack on a church in the coastal city of Alexandria on New Year's Eve left 23 people dead. © 2011, Assyrian International News Agency. All Rights Reserved. Terms of Use.

A big hat to fill
Ana Maria Luca, February 23, 2011
The inauguration of Saint Maroun’s statue in Saint Peter's Cathedral at the Vatican has gathered Christian Lebanese politicians together around President Michel Sleiman, Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir and the head of the Catholic Church, Pope Benedict XVI. March 8 caretaker Minister of State Youssef Saadi, caretaker Energy Minister Gebran Bassil and caretaker Tourism Minister Fadi Abboud headed to the Vatican for the event along with MPs Alain Aoun and Simon Abi Ramia, who were there representing the Change and Reform bloc. At the ceremony they will stand side-by-side with March 14 figures such as MPs Antoine Zahra, Nadim Gemayel and Sami Gemayel.
Today’s ceremony, held around the $500,000 statue donated by late Lebanese media mogul Antoine Choueiri’s family, brought hopes of a starting point for a dialogue over the ongoing political deadlock in Lebanon. But it also brings to mind the deadlock at the top of the Maronite Church after Patriarch Sfeir sent his resignation to the Vatican at the end of 2010. The Holy See is still thinking things over before it decides if it accepts the resignation or not, and while bishops prepare for elections, analysts say that finding a replacement for Sfeir in Bkirki could be as difficult as forming a government in Beirut. According to Harry Hagopian, Middle East and inter-faith advisor to the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of England and Wales, accepting the Patriarch’s resignation after his three decades in the position is a tough decision, even for Pope Benedict XVI. “One of the reasons that Cardinal Sfeir has stayed on for so long is because there have always been concerns that none of the bishops whose names are being talked about – we know that there are three or four of them [who] might take the coveted prize – would be able to take Cardinal Sfeir’s task,” he told NOW Lebanon.
“I have raised those concerns every time I came to Lebanon, and I’ve spoken with Catholic circles in Rome. He has almost 30 years of experience; he’s got a lot of wisdom,” he added.
But Patriarch Sfeir also faces tough criticism within the Maronite community for his political stances. “Cardinal Sfeir has been viewed as somebody with a clear political position which was at times more divisive than unifying,” Hagopian said. “That brings up the whole issue of if his position increased or decreased the tensions, what is the role of the Church? Is the role of the Church to be a pastoral instrument to deal with matters of faith, or is the role of the Church much wider than that? My perception is that it’s a wider role than that.”
Lebanese Maronites tend to see Patriarch Sfeir through their political affiliation, precisely because he sides politically with the pro-Western March 14 coalition. The Kataeb and Lebanese Forces supporters NOW Lebanon spoke to look up to Sfeir, believe he is a great supporter of Christian politicians and think his resignation is just a rumor spread by his enemies.
But to March 8 supporters, the revelation of Sfeir’s resignation was good news. “We call him Abu Samir,” one Free Patriotic Movement member who didn’t want to disclose his name told NOW Lebanon, referring to the close relationship between the Patriarch and LF leader Samir Geagea. “He’s not acting like the Patriarch of all the Christians; he’s dividing them instead of uniting them,” he added.
According to sources close to the Maronite Church, several Lebanese bishops already started campaigns to succeed Sfeir. Several names are said to be circulating in circles close to Bkirki, but the final choice would be between Bishop of Jbeil Bechara al-Rai and Archbishop of Beirut Paul Youssef Matar. Bishop Rai confirmed that elections will take place in Bkirki soon, even before the eight new bishops who will replace ones who have retired are ordained.
Rai told NOW Lebanon that the Patriarch’s role is to stay in touch with politics and provide politicians with moral guidelines. “He also will offer his wisdom on political practice in terms of morality, and what is good and [can] put an end to evil,” he said. He added that he believes the role of the Maronite Church is bigger than dealing with matters of faith, as “it played a role in the making of Lebanon and a role in its relation with the Catholic, Orthodox and Evangelical Churches, and in dialogue with the Muslim community and other religions that live in Lebanon, as well as in [Lebanon’s] relationship with the Arab World and the openness to the Western World.”
Archbishop Matar was not reachable for comment.
On his way to Rome on Sunday, Sfeir confirmed to journalists accompanying him that the Holy See has yet to accept his resignation. He added that stories published by Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar saying that a new Patriarch would be elected on March 8, 2011 are just “predictions.” The Vatican’s ambassador to Lebanon, Cardinal Gabriele Caccia, would not comment on the matter. But the Vatican is planning to honor Sfeir in the near future. The prefect of the Congregation of Oriental Churches at the Vatican, Cardinal Leonardo Sandri, will visit Beirut on March 14, 2011 to celebrate the silver jubilee of Sfeir’s election as Patriarch.
But in the meantime, things are still murky in the Maronite Church. “There are reports about bishops taking trips to Rome, there are reports of bishops getting ready for the post-Sfeir stage,” Hagopian said. “The sense of careerism, of who’s going to be there next, is becoming increasingly palpable, not only within the Maronite Church, but also outside the Maronite Church,” he said. “The question is whether the new person will be a strong leader who would strengthen the Maronite Church, and it is important because there are questions by many Maronite grassroots citizens who asked me: What is the Church doing for us as orderly citizens and members of the community? Any Church, like any monarchy, like any institution, needs a breath of fresh air after a while,” Hagopian said.
**Nadine Elali contributed reporting to this article.

Statements won't halt Gadhafi's crimes
By Michael Young /Daily Star/Thursday, February 24, 2011
Consider for one moment the savagery in Libya this week, when Moammar Gadhafi unleashed his jets, helicopter gunships, and artillery on own people. Then place that against a backdrop of the speech on Tuesday by the stuttering psychopath himself, followed by his instructions to hunt down and butcher his opponents.
Do that, and then tell us, without wincing, that had some foreign power or powers magically deployed the military means to shoot down Gadhafi’s aircraft and bomb his soldiers, you would not, deep down, have taken immense satisfaction in the results – regardless of whether the United Nations had authorized the move.
It’s in times like these that the formal institutions of international relations tend to break down. What we’re witnessing today we already witnessed in early 1991, when Iraq’s Saddam Hussein used his tanks and helicopters to crush a Shiite uprising after his army’s withdrawal from Kuwait. At the time the George H. W. Bush administration permitted the massacre to continue, fearing that any intervention might topple the Iraqi regime, creating a vacuum in Baghdad. Extraordinarily, Washington somehow managed to recognize Saddam both as an agent of instability in the Gulf and one of stability at home.
That delicate American adjustment of the geopolitical dials may have imposed some quiet in the region, but at a terrible human cost. Tens of thousands – some say the figure is closer to a couple of hundred thousand – of Iraqis were killed, most of them Shiites. This was followed by a 12-year U.N. sanctions regime that debilitated the Iraqi population but also strengthened Saddam’s rule. Oddly, many of those who later demanded that President George W. Bush gain U.N. approval before sending American forces to Iraq were the very same who had earlier denounced U.N. sanctions as inhuman.
What can the international community do to confront homicidal leaders like Gadhafi? One answer came precisely two decades ago, when it did virtually nothing against Saddam Hussein. A no-fly zone was imposed over northern and southern Iraq (and some are calling for such a zone to be declared over Libya), but otherwise the Baath leadership reasserted its authority over Iraqi lives unhindered. In 2003 Bush provoked much international displeasure by ordering an invasion of the country. However, many of those who expressed outrage with American actions never bothered to qualify that outrage by recalling Saddam Hussein’s serial brutality throughout the 1980s and 1990s, when he was directly or indirectly responsible for the death of not far from 1 million people – including Kurds, Shiites, and other opponents of his regime, as well as Iraqi and Iranian soldiers and civilians killed in the Iraq-Iran war that Saddam had initiated.
Gadhafi, like Saddam Hussein before him, is not someone who would ever consider ceding power peacefully. He is not someone apt to read the solemn reports of non-governmental organizations and embrace their recommendations, or tolerate independent monitors examining the work of his people’s committees. There are autocrats and there are autocrats. No one truly regrets the ouster of Hosni Mubarak, but the worst the former Egyptian president could do was dispatch camel-riding thugs to disperse his assembled critics. Only once did Egyptian fighters fly over the demonstrations, and it was not to strafe civilians.
But when dealing with Gadhafi’s Libya, as with Saddam’s Iraq, the conceptual boundaries of international intervention change. With such individuals, we enter into the sinister world of unaccountable mass murder. It’s fine for the U.N. Security Council to demand, as it did on Tuesday, that Gadhafi’s regime “meet its responsibility to protect its population,” act with restraint, and show deference to human rights and international humanitarian law. However, this is only useful if it underpins a more potent rejoinder, including possibly seeking Gadhafi’s indictment for crimes against humanity, denying his military the means to bomb civilians, and laying the groundwork for international recognition of an alternative Libyan leadership.
For now there is still much pussyfooting over Libya. The United States, ever fearful of an Islamist takeover in Tripoli, has limited its official reaction to ejaculations of indignation over Gadhafi’s ferocity. It seems increasingly obvious that Barack Obama is just not very good at adopting unambiguous positions on mass repression – whether it takes place in Iran, Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, or now Libya. The president, so eloquent when it comes to expressing abstract values in Muslim-Western relations, is without a moral compass when facing reality.
If Obama does not take the lead on Libya, or on how to manage the momentous changes in the Middle East, no one will. In fact no one has. Europe is governed by a gaggle of superintendents devoid of any vision, whose principal preoccupation is reviving their injured economies. Say what you will about Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair, it’s difficult not to regret their absence watching the European leaders of today. But Washington is offering no contrast. Gadhafi is perhaps right in assuming that if he can turn the situation in Libya around quickly enough, Western leaders will swallow their disgust and deal with him, because the stability of oil markets demands it.
The greater probability is that this is the end for the Libyan leader. Even if he manages to tighten his grip on Tripoli, Gadhafi may not have the necessary means to reconquer his country. But let’s assume for a moment that he does. Should the international community, in particular the United States, allow that to happen? Hasn’t Gadhafi done enough to earn more than just a few disobliging communiqués? He has, but good luck in finding someone to show him the door.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR and author of “The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle” (Simon & Schuster).

Interior portfolio to go to independent figure
By Hassan Lakiss /Daily Star staff
Thursday, February 24, 2011
BEIRUT: The much-desired Interior Ministry portfolio will be allotted to an independent figure in a bid to eliminate one of the major obstacles delaying the formation of a new government, said a source close to Speaker Nabih Berri Wednesday. Berri held extensive talks over the lingering government formation process with Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati at the former’s residence in Ain al-Tineh. “It seems they have found an unaffiliated figure to lead the interior ministry,” the source told The Daily Star. The source denied that the process stood in limbo. “Things are likely to get easier once [President Michel] Sleiman is back from his trip abroad.” Tough demands put forth by various groups have rendered Mikati’s mission to form a government challenging. Sleiman and Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun area both seeking the key Interior Ministry portfolio, which Aoun is seeking for a member of his bloc. Sleiman wishes to retain caretaker Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud. Aoun’s rival, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, blamed the FPM leader for holding up the birth of the government. In comments to As-Safir newspaper on Wednesday, Geagea said Aoun’s campaign against the president was meant to force the president to submit his resignation. However, a source close to the process said while the publicized reason delaying the formation of the Cabinet was the tug-of-war between Sleiman and Aoun, the make-up of the Mikati-led Cabinet will only be announced after the Special Tribunal for Lebanon publically announces the indictment and the March 14 alliance wraps up a rally on that date to mark six years since its foundation.
The U.N.-backed STL, which is probing the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, handed down its first indictment files Jan. 17. The content of the indictment files, which are widely expected to name Hezbollah members, remain confidential pending their review by pre-trial Judge Daniel Fransen. The source said Syria’s reluctance to help solve the Mikati’s hurdles in forming a new government stemmed from Damascus’ belief that the Cabinet make-up must be announced only after the indictment is released. But the source close to Berri dismissed this, saying the formation of a new government was not tied to the STL indictment or the March 14 rally. The national-unity Cabinet of caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri collapsed after ministers affiliated to the Hezbollah-led March 8 group submitted their resignations following a dispute over the STL. Hariri resisted Hezbollah’s calls to sever ties with the court, which the party slams an “Israeli tool” aimed at sowing strife in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, a source close to Mikati said the prime minister-designate might wait until after the March 14 rally to announce his Cabinet. The source said Mikati will not abandon his mission to form the Cabinet, adding that the prime minister–designate will remain open to all groups.According to the source, Mikati was still in contact with Christian figures from the March 14 alliance, namely caretaker Labor Minister Butros Harb and Kataeb (Phalange) party leader Amin Gemayel, as well as Beirut MP Tammam Salam, in a bid to see them join his government. “Salam said his participation in the Mikati government will be made easier in the event that other groups from the March 14 coalition also take part,” the source said. But the source said Aoun’s demands constitute the main obstacle to Harb or the Kataeb finding a place inside Mikati’s government. Aoun is insisting on the lion’s share of Christian representation in the government, arguing that he heads the largest Christian bloc in Parliament.
“Aoun will not give up his Christian share inside the new government and will ask that Harb and the Kataeb be granted portfolios from the share of Sleiman, for example,” said the source.
The same source said giving legitimacy to Hezbollah’s arsenal in the new mission statement of the Mikati Cabinet will not constitute a hurdle for Harb or the Kataeb, should they join.
“They can express their reservations over this particular item just like they did last time when the Hariri government was formed, but that won’t prevent their participation in the new Cabinet,” said the source.

Karam says he confessed to spying under torture
By Youssef Diab /Daily Star staff
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
BEIRUT: A senior Free Patriotic Movement official recanted Tuesday earlier confessions that he collaborated with Israel, claiming before the Permanent Military Tribunal that he was forced to confess under torture. “These [charges] were fabricated against me by the [Internal Security Forces] Information Branch for political reasons in order to accuse me … and to accuse the Free Patriotic Movement and [its leader] … Michel Aoun,” retired Gen. Fayez Karam told the court, headed by Brig. Nizar Khalil. Speaking during his second trial session in the presence of his defense attorneys Rashad Salameh and Cinderella Merhej, Karam said he was forced to confess after he was beaten, tortured and threatened by Information Branch personnel.
He said he neither knew Israeli officials, nor collaborated with Israel or met any Israeli officer outside Lebanon. “All these facts [accusations] were written by investigators in the investigation minutes which I was forced to sign,” Karam added. Karam had earlier admitted to collaborating with Israel during preliminary investigations conducted by the Information Branch and repeated the same confessions before Riyad Abu Ghayda, the first military investigative judge and in the presence of his defense attorneys. Asked why he repeated his confessions before Abu Ghayda, Karam said that he was afraid he would be returned to Information Branch custody and again be tortured if he withdrew his admission of guilt. Karam, who was arrested by the Information Branch in August, is charged with collaborating with the Mossad and providing it with information about Lebanese parties, including Hezbollah and the FPM, in return for money. His arrest came as part of a nationwide crackdown on collaborators with Israel carried out by authorities. But Karam confirmed that he had traveled from Lebanon to France via Israel in 1992. “After I was released from Syrian prisons in 1992, Lebanese security agencies fabricated charges based on which they issued an arrest warrant against me … I [sought a friend’s help] who transferred me to [the southern village of] Bkassin,” Karam said.
He added that after that, he went to the Israeli city of Haifa with the help of Elias Karam, an officer in the disbanded South Lebanon Army which fought alongside Israel before its forces withdrew from most of south Lebanon in May 2000. “There [in Haifa], I was interrogated by two Israeli officers after which I spent one night [in the city] and I boarded a ship to Cyprus, from which I headed to France,” he explained. Karam, who was a senior general under Aoun, a former army commander who fought a war against the Syrian forces in Lebanon in 1989, was arrested by the Syrian authorities in the early 1990s. The retired general denied charges that he knew an Israeli officer called “Rafi” or an Israeli diplomat with whom he held regular meetings in Paris and denied that he informed them about his relationship with Hezbollah officials, including the party’s Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem and Zghorta MP Sulemian Franjieh. Karam justified his ownership of a large number of “suspicious” French, German, Austrian and Belgian international telephone lines, claiming that he needed them to follow up on his business outside Lebanon. Asked why he dialed a “suspicious” Israeli phone number, Karam said the number belonged to Joe Haddad, a Lebanese residing in Paris.
Concerning charges that he contacted two Israeli nationals, Karam denied they were Israelis, saying one was a foreign journalist and the other a British diplomat. Karam also dismissed charges that he expressed to Aoun his intention to telephone Israeli officials and demand that Israel halts its summer 2006 war against Lebanon. The court postponed the session to April 21 to have the opportunity to hear the testimony of witnesses and examine the list of international calls that Karam had made. The session was attended by a number of FPM lawmakers and supporters along with Karam’s relatives.

Qaddafi firms grip, prepares to retake rebellious Cyrenaica
DEBKAfile Special Report February 23, 2011, Muammar Qaddafi succeeded Wednesday, Feb. 23, in clearing the streets of Tripoli and southern and western Libya of demonstrations against his rule – partly by threats and partly thanks to American and European Union failure to put up a military or diplomatic strategy for cutting him down. For now, he has firmed up his control of those parts of the country. The US State Department was reportedly "looking at" possible sanctions against the Qaddafi regime, but there were no specifics, and EU officials also decided on sanctions in principle but omitted to set a date for their enforcement.
Once again, outbreaks of violence and military mutinies were widely reported but not independently corroborated, except for desertions on a small scale. Libyan officials invited a group of European diplomats serving in Tripoli on a tour of the sites alleged to have been bombed by Libyan war planes to see for themselves if it was true. The picture described by travelers flying out of Tripoli's international airport Wednesday was one of tense calm in the cities they passed on their way out, as well as an unusual number of military and security checkpoints where soldiers screened them for weapons. Passengers arriving in London, Valetta, Malta, and Paris from Tripoli reported the airport was operating normally. Many reported hearing a lot of gunfire in the streets during the week, but none had witnessed bomber planes or helicopter gunships firing heavy weapons at demonstrators. debkafile's sources checking Tuesday's reports of a total blockage of Libyan oil exports found that that one quarter of the regular amount of 1.8 million barrels a day was withheld from France and Spain; the rest went out.
Qaddafi's threat to "hunt down the rats and hang them" in his televised speech Tuesday night is said by our sources to have had the effect of keeping protesters off the streets Wednesday. The heavy military presence in major cities was also effective. It demonstrated that claims of desertions by entire army units to join the protesters were exaggerated. During the day, the troops appeared to be obeying their officers' orders and carrying out the security duties assigned by the leadership headed by Qaddafi.
According to our sources in Washington, there was no practical follow-up to Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry's call for sanctions against Libya to be considered, although he is often viewed as the Obama administration's informal voice. The White House just echoed the UN Security Council's condemnation.
High-ranking US officials confided off the record that, in view of the strong economic ties between Libya and at least three leading European countries – Italy, Germany and France – it would take years to formulate sanctions and get them off the ground, whereas the situation in Libya required instant remedies. West Europe's heavy dependence on Libyan oil and gas would have to be taken into account as well as the fear that sanctions might further jack up fuel prices which had already risen steeply enough to hazard fragile economies. Regarding military action, US officials rejected a proposal to impose a total no-fly zone over Libyan airspace as a means of preventing Libyan planes or helicopters from attacking the demonstrators.
One senior US official said anonymously that no European air force was capable of enforcing a no-fly zone. If Washington was determined to impose one, it would have to be left to one of the US aircraft carriers posted opposite the Libyan coast. "In the meantime," said the official," there are no such military plans."debkafile's military sources report that the lull in the demonstrations and the stabilization of Qadafi's hold on the capital Tripoli have freed him to assemble military strength for retaking the three port cities of Cyrenaica – Benghazi, Al Bayda and Tobruk – captured this week by rebels. (Click here for earlier debkafile report on this revolt.) The Libyan ruler has the edge over the insurgents in that his army is relatively well organized and he has an air force and navy, while the rebels are essentially civilians with no professional command center who are armed only with the weapons plundered from Libyan military stores in those cities. Even before the disturbances, Qaddafi made certain never to maintain advanced weapons at military facilities in Cyrenaica.

Regime Change in the Arab World: An Islamic Domino Theory
By: Dr. Paul Cole, Non-Resident Scholar, INEGMA
http://by158w.bay158.mail.live.com/default.aspx?wa=wsignin1.0
February 24, 2011
Introduction
During the Cold War, western security policy was shaped, in some cases decisively, by the Domino Theory, which stated that if one country fell under communist control, all of that country's neighbors were threatened with the same fate. Recent events in the Arab world suggest that there is an Islamic variation of the Domino Theory. If one country overturns an autocracy, then all of autocratic neighbors of that country may follow suit.
The internal story unfolding in each Arab country undergoing regime change, though extremely important, should not divert attention from a question of equal, if not greater importance. What are the implications of regime change in the Arab world for the future of the international system?
Is Conflict Permanent?
After the 1980 U.S. presidential election, outgoing Carter national security officials briefed President-elect Reagan. One of the out-going Carter people said to the in-coming Reagan people, "The U.S.-Soviet conflict is a permanent feature of the international political landscape." President-elect Reagan responded, "Says who?"
Two schools of thought among Washington's foreign policy glitterati dominated reactions to Reagan's comment. The entrenched establishment, whose entire professional life was informed by the political structures of the Cold War, immediately concluded that "Ronnie Ray-guns," as he was known by his many detractors, was a neophyte whose lack of foreign policy experience was at least naïve, if not a threat to world peace.
The acolytes of the incoming president saw things from an entirely different perspective. In their view, the management of threats was a bankrupt policy, both morally as well as intellectually. In their view, the purpose of national security policy was to eliminate threats, not to manage them. The very idea that a threat or conflict had neither counter-measure nor solution was totally anathema to the Reaganites.
Three decades on, the debate among analysts of the Cold War is whether Reagan's policies ended the U.S.-Soviet competition, or if the 40th U.S. President was merely fortunate to be in the right historical place at the right historical time, when the Soviet Empire imploded under the weight of internal contractions of its own making.
Imagine a similar briefing to an incoming president-elect in 2012. This time, however, the national security briefer asserts, "Conflict between Islam and the West is a permanent feature of the international political landscape." On what grounds could the legitimacy of this assertion be challenged with the same clarity Reagan used to question the conventional wisdom of his day? Or is the assertion true? Is the conflict between Islam and the West a permanent feature of international politics?
Jaw-Jaw or War-War?
During the Cold War, the only place where U.S. and Soviet forces fought one another openly was in the sphere of political rhetoric. Both sides engaged in hostile rhetoric, while the majority of fighting was delegated to allies and proxies. Episodes of direct fighting, between small forces or battlefield advisors, can be counted on two hands. This type of conflict was kept secret from the general public. The threat of large scale conflict between the two blocks was so remote that only two serious episodes, the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) and the Soviet nuclear alert in 1983, occurred over a period of four decades.
Over time, conflict between the two blocks became institutionalized, with codified rituals rarely violated by either side. The rules of the Cold War precluded a declaration of war. The irreconcilable nature of the underlying belief systems clearly indicated that the two were mutually exclusive, thus an open declaration would have merely stated the obvious. Both systems taught that each would triumph over the other, with or without a declaration of war. George Orwell, who invented the term "Cold War," perceived a world in which there was a "peace that was no peace" between "horribly stable slave empires." On both sides, the Cold War was understood to be a fight to the finish.
Political culture within the Sino-Soviet bloc was held together by the orthodoxy of first Marxist-Leninism, then by its variations and deviations. No other form of political discourse was admissible. From the perspective of the dialectical materialist, the dictatorship of the proletariat was inevitable. The conduct of the competing system, which was doomed by the forces of history, followed a pre-ordained script. The phrase, "No other value system is so wholly irreconcilable with ours," which featured prominently in NSC-68 (1950), could have been written by any number of Marxist theoreticians about the capitalist system.
Americans, on the other hand, devoted an inordinate amount of effort and national treasure to the dark art of Kremlinology. Interpretations of Soviet policy, discerned from scraps of information, were presented as answers to vital questions. Was the USSR expansionist? Was the Bolshevik foreign policy agenda fundamentally different from that of imperial Russia? Thousands of American academics and public servants spent their entire career pondering what, in retrospect, appear to be rather trivial issues, rather than what at the time were believed to be the indices of apocalyptic reckoning.
Over time, the two blocks became locked in a mutually-reinforcing pattern of interaction that bordered on inter-dependence. There is no telling how long the Cold War would have continued had the USSR managed its finances more effectively. One of the enduring lessons of the Cold War is that communist governments could fake anything, except the economy.
Looking back, one can clearly see that when the Cold War became a reality in 1948, no one had an inkling that it would become a semi-permanent feature of the international political landscape for fifty years, any more than Wallenstein or Gustavus Adolphus knew in 1638 that they were engaged in a Thirty Years War.
How Long?
Today, more than two decades following the collapse of the Soviet empire, the West is again confronted by an adversarial ideology, this time deriving from Islam, its variants (and deviations). Americans who struggled to distinguish between Marxists and Leninists are faced with an adversary whose variations, such as Sunni, Sufi, Shiite and others, are just as complex.
For the sake of argument, assume that there is such a thing as Monolithic Islam, although it, like Monolithic Communism, is more of an intellectual crutch than a meaningful expression of international politics. While it is early days in the modern manifestation of the conflict between the West and Monolithic Islam, a form of idealized conflict, much like that of the Cold War era, has been established. Inchoate rules of engagement, which are generally understood by both sides, encompass ideology, culture and military competition.
During the Cold War, radical intelligentsia in the West found common cause with the Communist bloc. The construction of the Berlin Wall demonstrated once and for all that the communist system in Europe lacked all legitimacy. Khrushchev's 1956 speech denounced the depravities of Stalinism, yet even so, the despots who operated under the banner of Marxist-Leninism managed to cling to power for another four decades.
A similar strain of moral equivalency in the West, while not going as far as to find common cause, has become an apologist for the anti-intellectualism and misogyny of some variants of Islam. One of the ironies of history is that the people of the various Arab states are rejecting the social straightjacket of theocracy faster than the western apologists can find reasons to warn against the unpredictable nature of democracy in the Arab world.
From Here to Eternity, Or Not
We know now that the U.S.-Soviet competition, in fact, was not a permanent feature of the international system. Protestors in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and Iran are not burning U.S. flags, or denouncing western imperialism.
The professionals in East Germany hardest hit by the fall of the Berlin Wall were those whose expertise consisted of teaching the doctrine of Marxist-Leninism. The end of the Cold War left them without a job.
It would appear, based on recent events, that the confrontation between Islamic and western nations is not a permanent feature of international politics. If this is true, the demand for Islamic extremists should be expected to decline as well.
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