LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِFebeuary 19/2011

Bible Of The Day
The Good News According to Luke 22/23-30: " They began to question among themselves, which of them it was who would do this thing. 22:24 There arose also a contention among them, which of them was considered to be greatest. 22:25 He said to them, “The kings of the nations lord it over them, and those who have authority over them are called ‘benefactors.’ 22:26 But not so with you. But one who is the greater among you, let him become as the younger, and one who is governing, as one who serves. 22:27 For who is greater, one who sits at the table, or one who serves? Isn’t it he who sits at the table? But I am in the midst of you as one who serves. 22:28 But you are those who have continued with me in my trials. 22:29 I confer on you a kingdom, even as my Father conferred on me, 22:30 that you may eat and drink at my table in my Kingdom. You will sit on thrones, judging the twelve tribes of Israel.”

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Statement by Minister Cannon on Iran to House of Commons/February 18/11
Law of the jungle in Lebanon/Daily Star/February 18/11
March 14’s hazy self-definition/By: Michael Young/ February 18/11
Lebanese Minister of Interior in the caretaker government Ziad Baroud held a press conference/Now Lebanon/February 18/11
Hizballah: Governing Faction in Lebanon, Criminal Group Abroad/By: By Matthew Levitt/February 18/11
The army’s regime/By: Tony Badran/Now Lebanon/ February 18/11
Katherine Butler : Iran's tyranny will pass, but not peacefully/The Independent/February 18/11
Israeli-Egyptian relations / Quiet military coup was behind Mubarak's resignation/By Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel/February 18/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for February 18/11
U.S. Think Tank Unveils Alleged List of Hizbullah Members Named in Hariri Case/Naharnet
Netanyahu lets Egypt build up its Sinai army to 4,000 troops/DEBKAfile
Israeli diplomatic missions take precautions against Hezbollah threats/Now Lebanon
Shalom: We Will Have to Return Nasrallah to his Underground Hideout/Naharnet
Siddiq says tribunal witness known as 'Mr. X' is MP Ali Hassan Khalil/Daily Star
Amin Gemayel rejects Siddiq’s statement on Pakradouni/Now Lebanon
US Ambassador to Lebanon Maura Connelly. sheds light on Washington’s expectations for Mikati’s cabinet/Now Lebanon
Tension mounts on southern border with Israel/Daily Star
Fate of two Iranian warships headed for Syria still unclear/Haaretz
'Israeli embassy in Ankara closed due to Hezbollah threat'/J.Post
Wary Syrians test Middle East 'domino theory'/Financial Times
Time for a Syrian Revolution/Huffington Post (blog)
Israel, Hezbollah trade threats/UPI.com
Vatican still weighing resignation of aged Maronite Patriarch/Catholic Culture
Siddiq: Mps Sami, Nadim Gemayel are facing a real threat/Ya Libnan
Jarrah from Maarab lashes out at Aoun/iloubnan.info
Deputy Speaker MP Farid Makari : March 14 will no longer bargain/Now Lebanon
Work at Israel Embassy in Turkey Stops Over Fear from Hizbullah Attack/Naharnet
Jumblat Calls Participation of March 14 in Cabinet an 'Illusion'/Naharnet
U.S. Think Tank Unveils Alleged List of Hizbullah Members Named in Hariri Case/Naharnet
Israeli Spy Sentenced to Death/Naharnet
Berri: No Justification for all the Fuss on New Parliamentary Majority/Naharnet
Report: Qahwaji Discusses with Syrian Officials Consolidation of Lebanon Stability/Naharnet
Hariri: It's Unacceptable that Arms Become Means to Influence Political Life in the Country/Naharnet
Suleiman Responds to Barak: Entering Lebanon No Longer Walk in the Park/Naharnet
STL Public Affairs Chief Says Indictment Release Date Unchanged/Naharnet
Harb Meets Gemayel: Lebanon Can't Remain a State within a State of Illegitimate Arms/Naharnet
ISF Arrests Lebanon's Most Wanted Individual at Baroud's Orders/Naharnet
Connelly Meets Miqati and Geagea, Stresses Need to Form Government Away from External Influence/Naharnet
Work at Israel Embassy in Turkey Stops Over Fear from Hizbullah Attack /Naharnet
Israeli Spy Sentenced to Death in Lebanon/Naharnet
Report: Qahwaji Discusses with Syrian Officials Consolidation of Lebanon Stability/Naharnet
Hariri: It's Unacceptable that Arms Become Means to Influence Political Life in the Country/Naharnet
Suleiman Responds to Barak: Entering Lebanon No Longer Walk in the Park/Naharnet

Siddiq says tribunal witness known as 'Mr. X' is MP Ali Hassan Khalil  /Naharnet
By The Daily Star /Friday, February 18, 2011 /BEIRUT: A prominent Lebanese politician known as “Mr. X” whose telephone call was intercepted by the U.N. probe investigating former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination is Amal Movement MP Ali Hassan Khalil, said a former witness Mohammad Zuheir Siddiq Thursday. “To this day there are still officials in Syria who know the details of the murder of [Hariri] and I hope they will confess at the tribunal [Special Tribunal for Lebanon,]” Siddiq told the Voice of Lebanon radio station. Siddiq also blamed former Kataeb (Phalange) president Karim Pakradouni of leaking the movements of former minister Pierre Gemayel to what he called “traitors” of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. “An intelligence decision in Syria was taken to assassinate Kataeb Party leader Amin Gemayel but some March 8 officials suggested to them that they kill his son, Pierre Gemayel instead,” said Siddiq, who is currently living in Holland.
After the interview, Pakradouni rebuffed the accusations made by Siddiq and called them “fabricated stories.” – The Daily Star

Gemayel rejects Siddiq’s statement on Pakradouni
February 18, 2011 /Kataeb Party leader Amin Gemayel rejected a statement made by former Syrian intelligence operative Mohammad Zuhair Siddiq about Karim Pakradouni—the former leader of Gemayel’s party, and slain Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel, who is Amin’s son. “[Addressing the murder of Pierre Gemayel] is the specialty of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) only,” a statement issued by Gemayel’s office quoted him as saying.  “The STL is the body that is authorized to achieve [justice] in the murder case of [former Prime Minister] Rafik Hariri, Pierre Gemayel, [Kataeb MP] Antoine Ghanem and the Cedar Revolution martyrs.”“[Siddiq’s statement] is totally unacceptable.”Siddiq said on Thursday that “Pakradouni was the person who knew about Pierre [Gemayel’s] movements” adding that “[Pakradouni] leaked information about [the slain minister’s location before his murder].”Pierre Gemayel was assassinated in 2006.-NOW Lebanon

Fate of two Iranian warships headed for Syria still unclear
By Amos Harel, Avi Issacharoff and News Agencies
According to Egyptian authorities, Cairo refused to allow the Iranian vessels passage, but Iranian state television has insisted that permission was granted.
As of late last night it was still not clear whether Egypt would allow the two Iranian warships in the Red Sea and reportedly bound for Syria to transit through the Suez Canal and into the Mediterranean Sea. Officials in Jerusalem are closely monitoring the movement of the two ships, which sailed from Iran two and a half weeks ago, and have been lobbying officials in the United States and other friendly states to use their influence to keep the vessels out of the canal. The Iranian warship Alvand docked in the Persian Gulf in 2009. According to Egyptian authorities, Cairo refused to allow the Iranian vessels passage, but Iranian state television has insisted that permission was granted and the ships will cross the canal into the Mediterranean.
“Iranian authorities were in touch with the authorities in Cairo in order to secure the passage for the ships,” the statement on Iran’s official television broadcast read, quoting an Iranian navy source. The Associated Press, meanwhile, reported a senior canal official as saying the Iranian request had been withdrawn earlier yesterday, without giving an explanation for the application’s withdrawal. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to brief the media. Reuters also reported, quoting a senior source in the Suez Canal, the cancelation of the ships’ transit through the canal. The source said no date was given for a future passage.Ahmed al-Manakhly, a senior Suez Canal official, told AP that said international agreements regulate the traffic through the canal. He said that only in the case of war with Egypt may vessels be denied transit through the waterway. Al-Manakhly noted that Iran and Egypt are not at war, and said the final decision on whether to grant the vessels’ passage lies with the Defense Ministry. The Suez Canal official identified the two vessels as the Alvand, a frigate, and the Kharq, a supply ship, and said they were en route to Syria. He said they were now in an area near Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Jiddah. The naval vessels are not expected to carry out military exercises near the Israeli coast, and are not expected to pose any genuine threat to Israel.

US Ambassador to Lebanon Maura Connelly. sheds light on Washington’s expectations for Mikati’s cabinet
February 18, 2011 /US Ambassador to Lebanon Maura Connelly met on Friday with Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati and voiced her country’s “expectation that the new Lebanese cabinet will uphold the government’s responsibilities to the international community.”“Connelly expressed the United States’ expectation that the ministers in the new Lebanese cabinet will continue to work to uphold the government’s responsibilities both to its own people and constitution as well as to the international community,” according to a statement issued by the US Embassy in Lebanon. The US ambassador also said that Washington does not want the government formation process be affected by foreign powers, the statement added. “They both affirmed the importance for the United States and Lebanon to maintain the strong and fruitful relationship between the two countries.”“The US believes the way forward for US – Lebanese relations will be guided by how the new government determines its program of work and implements its policies,” the statement said.It added that “Lebanon’s continuing commitment to its international obligations will be judged in the actions taken by the next government in regard to the relevant UN resolutions, beginning with the content of the next government’s ministerial statement.” “A government that is truly representative of the interests of the people of Lebanon will continue to support and sustain the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.”Mikati was appointed to the premiership on January 25 with the March 8 coalition’s backing and has called on all parties to join his cabinet.-NOW Lebanon

Israeli diplomatic missions take precautions against Hezbollah threats
February 18, 2011 /Israeli diplomatic missions in Turkey have stopped working while security measures are implemented in response to threats by Hezbollah, an Israeli diplomatic source said Friday."Officially, we are not closed, but practically we are not functioning... because of security problems," the source told AFP on condition of anonymity. "We are changing our rules drastically. We are not closed, but we have flexible hours, so you don't know exactly when we are there," the source said. The situation applies to both the Israeli embassy in Ankara and the consulate in Istanbul. Hezbollah threatened Wednesday to attack Israel and target its leaders if Israeli forces invade Lebanon as in 2006. Israel's foreign ministry said Tuesday said it had temporarily closed four of its diplomatic missions after receiving attack threats, but did not specify which. Israel's anti-terrorism bureau has also warned Israelis against travelling to Egypt and eight other countries including Turkey for fear of reprisals on the anniversary of the assassination of two top Hezbollah militants. The other countries named were Armenia, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Georgia, Ivory Coast, Mali, Mauritania and Venezuela. Top Hezbollah commander Imad Mugniyeh was killed in a car bombing in Damascus on February 12, 2008, while Abbas Moussawi, the group's secretary general, was killed by an Israeli missile on February 16, 1992.-AFP/NOW Lebanon

Deputy Speaker MP Farid Makari : March 14 will no longer bargain
February 18, 2011 /“The March 14 [coalition] will no longer bargain [on its principles],” Deputy Speaker MP Farid Makari said on Friday. “The Cedar Revolution did not yet end,” Makari told Voice of Lebanon (100.5), adding that extending ending former President Emile Lahoud’s term in 2004 was a mistake.  “The delay in the cabinet formation is caused by regional [reasons] and disputes within the March 8 [coalition].”He also said that “[Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel] Aoun’s stance comes at the expense of Lebanon and its Christians.”On Wednesday, Aoun said that President Michel Sleiman “broke the conditions of his election and went down into the [political] square.”Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati was appointed to the premiership on January 25 with the March 8 coalition’s backing and has called on all parties to join his cabinet. On Monday outgoing PM Saad Hariri, Kataeb Party leader Amin Gemayel and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea all said that March 14 would enter the opposition. However, the Future Movement asked again Wednesday that Mikati clarify his stances on the STL and non-state weapons, and March 14 minister Boutros Harb said in an article in As-Safir newspaper’s Thursday edition that talks with Mikati are continuing.-NOW Lebanon

Report: Qahwaji Discusses with Syrian Officials Consolidation of Lebanon Stability
Naharnet/Army chief Gen. Jean Qahwaji has reportedly visited Damascus to discuss with top Syrian military commanders cooperation between the two countries to preserve stability in Lebanon. Lebanese security sources told pan-Arab daily al-Hayat in remarks published Friday that Qahwaji visited the Syrian capital several days ago and discussed with officials there "the ongoing military cooperation between the two countries to preserve security and stability in Lebanon which is witnessing political bickering over ongoing consultations to form the new government." Qahwaji and the Syrian officials also discussed the latest developments in southern Lebanon amid continued Israeli threats, the sources said. Discussions focused on ways to defend the Lebanese army in case of an Israeli aggression, they added. Beirut, 18 Feb 11, 07:28

U.S. Think Tank Unveils Alleged List of Hizbullah Members Named in Hariri Case
Naharnet/Hizbullah is greatly concerned about the prospect of public indictments in ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's assassination case, in large part because some of the group's senior members have already been named in the media as potential suspects, said the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The Hizbullah members include Qassem Suleiman, Hajj Salim, Abdul Majid Ghamloush, brothers Hussein and Mouin Khreis, and, most significantly, Mustafa Badreddine, the institute said in a report written by Matthew Levitt. Badreddine is the brother-in-law of Imad Mughniyeh -- the assassinated chief of Hizbullah's external operations. "Hizbullah's acute anxiety over the forthcoming indictments can be seen most prominently in its public denunciations of the tribunal as an American project based on false communications data fabricated by Israeli spies embedded in Lebanon's telecommunications industry," said the institute which has close ties to Israel. The Shiite group is conducting periodic surveillance of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon headquarters in The Hague, wrote Levitt. "Hizbullah regularly follows tribunal investigators on the ground in Lebanon and uses intimidation tactics against them. "The group reportedly collects information on tribunal officials entering and leaving the country through airport surveillance, creating an environment in which investigators do not feel safe," the report added. Levitt recounted how a Canadian Broadcasting Corporation report implicated two more senior Hizbullah officials, Hussein Khalil and Wafiq Safa, in Internal Security Forces captain Wissam Eid's assassination in January 2008. Beirut, 18 Feb 11, 07:59

Shalom: We Will Have to Return Nasrallah to his Underground Hideout
Naharnet/Israeli deputy Prime Minister Silvan Shalom threatened on Friday Hizbullah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah by saying: "We are not keen on battle, but if it is imposed on us, them we will return you Nasrallah to the underground hideout where you will stay for years.""The Galilee is prospering and we are spending money on it for it to prosper," he stated.On Wednesday, Nasrallah had warned Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Chief of Staff Benny Gantz that his fighters are prepared for a war should it be imposed on Lebanon, adding that they may be requested to occupy the Galilee. Meanwhile, Barak had announced during a tour of the Israeli-Lebanese border on Tuesday that the Israeli army may once again enter Lebanon. Beirut, 18 Feb 11, 16:30

Connelly Meets Miqati and Geagea, Stresses Need to Form Government Away from External Influence
Naharnet/U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Maura Connelly stressed on Friday the need to form a new Lebanese government away from external influence. She made her statements after holding talks with Prime Minister-designate Najib Miqati on his ongoing efforts to form a new government. They both affirmed the importance for the United States and Lebanon to maintain the strong and fruitful relationship between the two countries. The United States believes the way forward for U.S.-Lebanese relations will be guided by how the new government determines its program of work and implements its policies. Connelly expressed to Miqati the United States' expectation that the ministers in the new Lebanese cabinet will continue to work to uphold the government's responsibilities both to its own people and constitution as well as to the international community. Lebanon's continuing commitment to its international obligations will be judged in the actions taken by the next government in regard to the relevant U.N. resolutions, beginning with the content of the next government's ministerial statement. A government that is truly representative of the interests of the people of Lebanon will continue to support and sustain the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Connelly also me on Friday Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea during which she stressed that the formation of a new government is an internal Lebanese affair. A statement from Geagea's media desk said that the ambassador had emphasized that any government should respect international resolutions. The meeting also addressed the developments in the Middle East, especially those in Tunisia and Egypt. She had also expressed the United States' concern with Iran's deployment of two warships in the Mediterranean Sea. Beirut, 18 Feb 11, 17:00

Jumblat Calls Participation of March 14 in Cabinet an 'Illusion'
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat said that the March 14 coalition has already made up its decision not to participate in Premier-designate Najib Miqati's cabinet.
"March 14 has made up its mind and we have done so as well," Jumblat told As Safir daily in remarks published Friday. He called an "illusion" the possible participation of March 14 in the government. "The issue is not about the distribution of seats. The issue is about a choice" that an alliance makes in taking part in the cabinet or not, the Druze leader said.
"We should get ready to become a political team with a unified vision," he added. Beirut, 18 Feb 11, 09:30

Suleiman Responds to Barak: Entering Lebanon No Longer Walk in the Park
Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman condemned on Thursday Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's recent threat against Lebanon, saying that it was a violation of international law and U.N. Security Council resolution 1701.The president said that the threat was aimed at lifting the Israeli army and the new Israeli chief of staff's morale "because he knows full well that entering Lebanon is no loner a walk in the park as demonstrated by the July 2006 war."He added that Barak believes that the current Lebanese tensions over the formation of a new government would be a suitable time for an Israeli assault. Suleiman said that such an assault would backfire against the Jewish state because the Lebanese will retaliate with their army, people, and Resistance. He therefore stressed the importance of internal unity and the need to form a new government in order to fortify the country against foreign threats.
The president is scheduled to travel to the Vatican on February 22 in order to attend the unveiling ceremony of a statue of Saint Maroun in the Saint Peter's Square.He is also expected to meet with Pope Benedict XVI on February 24, then return to Lebanon, and later travel to Kuwait on the 26th to attend Kuwait's independence day celebrations. Beirut, 17 Feb 11, 14:28

Hariri: It's Unacceptable that Arms Become Means to Influence Political Life in the Country
Naharnet/Outgoing premier Saad Hariri stressed Thursday that "it is unacceptable that weapons become a means to influence political life in the country," noting that the Lebanese "cannot build a country that way, as a country should have one army, one authority and one State." "The weapons of any party must not become a means to undermine civil peace and the democratic system," Hariri added. Speaking during a meeting at the Center House with Mustaqbal Movement cadres, Hariri said he had been "honest" during the failed Saudi-Syrian brokered talks with the Hizbullah-led camp on reaching a solution to the crisis over the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon, accusing the rival camp of "resorting to deceit."
"We are not weak, but rather strong through our words, steadfastness, solidarity and faith in our cause," Hariri added. The caretaker premier reiterated that his camp will rally en masse on March 14 in support of "the State, the Constitution, the institutions, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and truth." "This tribunal is neither Israeli nor American," Hariri stressed, adding that "people should know the truth, not only behind the assassination of (ex-PM) Rafik Hariri, but also the truth behind the murder of all the martyrs." On January 12, Hizbullah and its allies toppled Saad Hariri's cabinet in a long-running feud over the U.N.-backed STL, which the party believes will accuse several of its members of being involved in the 2005 murder of former premier Rafik Hariri. Hizbullah-backed Najib Miqati was then appointed to form a new government, which Hariri's alliance has refused to join and has labeled "Hizbullah's government". Hariri has refused to join Miqati's government unless he guarantees his cabinet will see the tribunal through. Hizbullah meanwhile is demanding Lebanon end all cooperation with the court, which it says is a U.S.-Israeli conspiracy. Beirut, 17 Feb 11, 21:48

Tension mounts on southern border with Israel
By Patrick Galey and Mohammed Zaatari
Daily Star staff
Friday, February 18, 2011
BEIRUT/ADAYSSEH: President Michel Sleiman Thursday slammed Israel’s threat that its forces could enter Lebanon as a barefaced violation of international law, warning that any military confrontation between the two countries would not be “a walk in the park.” Sleiman said that saber-rattling by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak earlier this week was a ploy to “raise the morale” of newly appointed Israeli Army chief Benny Gantz. “[Israelis] know so very well that any attempt to enter Lebanon once again is no longer a walk in the park,” Sleiman was quoted as saying in a statement from Baabda Palace, in reference to the devastating 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel. Israel upped its activity close to the Blue Line Thursday, carrying out
surveillance and maintenance work near to the village of Adaysseh – the scene of last year’s deadly clash between the Israeli and Lebanese armies.
Patrols of Israeli soldiers planted additional communications cables and early-warning systems on its side of the Technical Fence, as an ambulance was scrambled on the request of the Lebanese Army. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon sent soldiers to Adaysseh to monitor the situation.
Deputy UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti told The Daily Star that the organization’s movements Thursday constituted routine work. “There were a few activities, including some work on the Technical Fence [by Israel], but there were no violations [of Lebanese territory],” he said. “Of course, whenever there is work on the Technical Fence we have peacekeepers there to monitor it.”
In addition to a company of 25 Israeli soldiers at Adaysseh backed up by armored vehicles and unmanned reconnaissance drones, a separate team carried out maintenance work on electromagnetic cables, spanning a distance of 250 meters next to the Blue Line – the boundary of Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and the de facto border between the two warring states.
A UNIFIL helicopter undertook a flight along the Blue Line and a Lebanese security source told The Daily Star that UNIFIL commander Maj. Gen. Alberto Asarta Cuevas was aboard. Tenenti could not confirm who was in the helicopter, but insisted such activity was routine.
“We have flights every day,” he said. “Even if the force commander was on board a helicopter, this is something that happens on an everyday basis.”
The security source said that Israel’s Blue Line surveillance network had not been functioning for the past two days, following an unexplained disruption to its reconnaissance cables.
In his statement, Sleiman voiced his support for Lebanon’s tripartite formula for repelling Israeli belligerence. “The Lebanese Army, people, and resistance, are ready to confront any aggression to target Lebanon's stability and security,” he added.Sleiman, addressing Barak, warned that any repeat assault on Lebanon would be a “dim-witted act.” He also voiced his conviction that Israel and its people would be made to pay a high price in the event of renewed hostilities in south Lebanon. The president’s words were the latest warning shot in an exchange of heightened rhetoric between Lebanon and Israel. Barak, during a speech to soldiers on a northern border tour Wednesday, said Israeli soldiers may be “called to enter [Lebanon] again.” Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah told his party members Wednesday to prepare for war with Israel, a proclamation that prompted a withering response from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli leader derided Nasrallah’s claim that Hezbollah could liberate Galilee in the event of another provocation from south of the Blue Line.
Gantz, who is a veteran of both 1982 and 2006 Israeli invasions of Lebanon, took charge of the largest military in the Middle East last week.

The death of the equation: Army, Resistance and Citizens
by Lubnan Awalan
February 17, 2011
Mr. President we are not going to confront Israel with the equation Lebanese Citizens, Lebanese Army and Resistance, for those reasons
1- If the Irano /Syrian backed up agents (False Resistance) are going to make any Don Quixotic move alike the 2006 war, we Lebanese are not ready to support their lost cause.
2- What resistance are we talking about Mr. President; in the eyes of the Lebanese majority those are criminals, drug dealers, money launderers, road blockers, Agents, spreaders of terrorism? They have proved that numerous times, mainly when they attacked unarmed neighborhoods and massacred unarmed Lebanese citizens in West Beirut and in the Mountain, blood did not dry yet, are those who will have to support against Israel a real Resistance?
3- Will remind the Lebanese and bet you are aware better than me, that with the so called Resistance’s arms few weeks back they imposed a putsch (intimidating Parliamentarians.
No Mr. President we are not going to support those criminals,
4- We don’t want our glorious army to be a false witness, neither involved in conflicts that are not ours nor pay any blood tribute for the eyes of the Iranian Mullah’s and or the Dictator of Damascus
5- We the peaceful citizens will never backup criminals in any adventure dictated by Iran and Syria
6- This equation Army, Citizens, false Resistance does not exist anymore. We Citizens with our Army are Lebanese and will remain. They are a false Resistance, the Welaet Al Fakih followers and have no legacy to Lebanon. We heard their Leader bragging with kind of loyalty all the time. He is proud to be a Fakih Boy sold to the Mullahs of Tehran
7- What about Shebaa, the  forgotten occupied land? Instead they are talking about Liberating Galilee now. We don’t want to be involved in any wars with Israeli or the Fakih’s Boys.
Mr. President being the ex Chief of Staff of our brave Army, you know how easy it is to declare and play wars with binoculars, through huge TV screens and from under ground Bunkers, the Nasrallah style
Please Mr. President spare us the destruction of our beloved country for the satisfaction of Iran and Syria
Thank you for considering
Respectful
Lubnan Awalan
 

Statement by Minister Cannon on Situation in Bahrain
(No. 69 – February 18, 2011 – 10:30 a.m. ET) The Honourable Lawrence Cannon, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement concerning the protests that have taken place in Bahrain: “Canada regrets the loss of life in Bahrain and calls on all parties to refrain from violence. We urge the Bahraini authorities to exercise restraint, and we encourage the Bahraini government to promptly investigate the deaths of protesters.“Canada urges Bahrain to respect its citizens’ rights to freedom of expression and assembly, and to engage in peaceful dialogue with its people to address their concerns.”

Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Statement by Minister Cannon on Iran to House of Commons
(No. 68 – February 17, 2011 – 3:40 p.m. ET) The following is an edited transcript of a statement made in the House of Commons by the Honourable Lawrence Cannon, Minister of Foreign Affairs, on the situation in Iran. The statement was made in the House at 7:15 p.m. on Wednesday, February 16, 2011:
“Madam Speaker, a year and a half ago, an extraordinary, peaceful people’s movement took to the streets in Iran. This movement rejected the results of the election, which had obviously been rigged, and called for radical reforms. Millions of Iranians took to the streets in June and July 2009, braving suppression, intimidation, arrest and violence by the Iranian authorities currently in power. “As we witnessed the wave of democracy surging through Tunisia and Egypt in recent weeks, we were reminded that Iran had set an example of courage and hope for the Middle East. Canadians and the other members of the international community had promised never to forget the bravery of the Iranian activists.
“Where are the Green Movement leaders now? Unfortunately, while the events in Egypt and Tunisia sent out messages of hope, the events in Iran reveal an oppressive regime. The 2009 activists are now under house arrest; their telephone lines have been cut and security officers have been stationed outside their homes. These leaders were once the Iranian prime minister [Mir Hossein Mousavi, prime minister 1981-1989], the speaker of the Iranian parliament [Mehdi Karroubi, speaker 1989-1992 and 2000-2004] and the country’s president [Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, president 1993-1997]. And now, the judiciary and members of the Iranian parliament are calling for their arrest and even their execution for having ‘corrupted the earth.’
“The flagrant disregard and egregious abuse of the most basic human rights by the Iranian authorities have always been and will continue to be denounced by our government and by the House. Actions taken by the Iranian authorities against peaceful protesters in Tehran as recently as this week give our government much cause for concern. The hypocrisy of the Iranian authorities’ support for democracy in Egypt and the suppression of the same demands in Iran is outright unacceptable. The use of tear gas, batons and pepper spray against peaceful protesters by Iranian security forces is a gross violation of the right to free expression and assembly.
“Our government will continue to call on Iranian authorities to allow for peaceful gatherings and the immediate release of any protesters who are being unjustifiably detained, and we will continue to take Iran to task for its continued violations of human rights and freedom of expression and association.
“Unfortunately, these recent events have a long history. We will not forget that many of the young people arrested during the 2009 protest were taken to Iran’s notorious Kahrizak prison, where they were brutally beaten and packed into small, unventilated cells by the dozens. At least three died from beatings or asphyxiation, while others were reportedly raped by their jailers. The Iranian parliament [the Majlis] itself investigated these incidents and found that there were indeed severe abuses, including by Saeed Mortazavi, the same man implicated in the murder of Canadian journalist Zahra Kazemi in 2003. However, in spite of the Majlis’s conclusions, the world is still waiting for those responsible for the crimes at this prison to be held accountable.
“The activists of the Green Movement have disappeared from Iranian society. Intellectuals, students, senior officials and clerics who joined the quest for freedom and reform are now either locked away or silenced forever. Many of them were forced to appear in humiliating televised show trials, where they confessed their so-called crimes, clearly under duress. Many have been given severe punishment after a highly questionable process by the Iranian courts.
“However, in such cases as these, the word “many” can detract from the individual tragedies and suffering involved. In particular, I would call to the attention of the House the stories of:
“Jafar Panahi, the gifted filmmaker honoured last September at the Toronto Film Festival, sentenced to six years in jail and banned from pursuing his craft for 20 years;
“Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a respected cleric and former deputy minister of culture [and vice president], was detained for 160 days;
“Mostafa Tajzadeh, a former deputy minister, was detained for 10 months and then rearrested for stating that the 2009 elections were rigged;
“Ibrahim Yazdi, veteran political leader and activist, was arrested in June 2009 and again in October 2010. He is now in declining health in prison and his trial date is reportedly postponed.
“I could go on.
“The courageous Iranians who fought for democracy in 2009 are today facing serious consequences, including the death penalty.
“On January 29, [2011] an Iranian-Dutch woman named Zahra Bahrami was executed on the basis of questionable drug-related charges that were laid after her arrest during an anti-Ahmadinejad protest.
“On January 24, Jafar Kazemi and Mohammad Ali Haj Aghaei, who were arrested during the 2009 protests, were executed after being accused of having ties to a terrorist group.
“The Government of Canada is very concerned and believes that this trend will continue and that the Iranian judiciary will hand down death penalties in the cases of other people who gathered to peacefully demonstrate their democratic opposition. The government is also worried that the approximately 100 civilians arrested during the February 14 demonstrations will be subject to the same non-transparent, draconian treatment.
“Other activists arrested following the election in 2009 are now receiving harsh sentences, including corporal punishment, for their peaceful opposition activities and for vaguely defined offences that carry the death penalty. Here again are a few of the many who are suffering at the hands of a government that does not respect their basic democratic rights: Mehdi Aghdam, a youth activist, received six years in prison for participating in demonstrations; Emad Bahavar, a student activist, received 10 years in prison and a 10-year ban on participating in political activities; Amir Khorram, a youth activist, received seven years in prison and 74 lashes; Sarah Tavassoli, a youth activist, received six years in prison and 74 lashes; a construction worker with two young children, Behzad Arabgol, received six years in prison for participating in a demonstration; Shiva Nazar-Ahari, a women’s rights activist, received four years in prison and 74 lashes.
“These terrible punishments of individuals exercising their universal rights of freedom of expression and assembly are an offence to reasonable people the world over, and they must stop.
“The Government of Canada condemned the repression after the June 2009 elections, and we have continued to condemn the systematic and violent suppression of peace demonstrations ever since. These ongoing and unjustifiable violations of universal human rights will remain a core issue in Canada’s foreign policy regarding Iran.
“Our stand will not soften, our international leadership will not lessen and our principled voice will not be diminished until Iran’s leaders turn away from the path of repression and all citizens of Iran can enjoy the freedoms and rights we hold to be universal and undeniable.”
For further information, media representatives may contact:
Lynn Meahan
Press Secretary
Office of the Minister of Foreign Affairs
613-995-1851
Foreign Affairs Media Relations Office
Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada
613-995-1874

March 14’s hazy self-definition
By: Michael Young, February 18, 2011
March 14’s leaders need to tell their supporters what they stand for instead of only saying what they’re against. (AFP Photo/Joseph Eid)
This week March 14 again indicated that it intended to oppose a government headed by Najib Mikati if it were shaped by the priorities of Hezbollah and Michel Aoun. Mikati still wants to reach a consensus with March 14. But for now, does the former majority have what it takes to win a confrontation if it were to definitely decide to stay out of Mikati’s government, assuming one will actually be formed?
In his speech on the sixth anniversary of his father’s assassination, Saad Hariri listed the three principles guiding the new opposition: a commitment to the Lebanese constitution; a commitment to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon; and a commitment to protecting public and private life in Lebanon from the threat of weapons. All this as leaders of the former majority have engaged in sustained self-criticism for having disappointed their political base in recent years.
Self-criticism can be a good thing, but in this case it may not be enough. Hariri’s speech at the BIEL on Monday, like that of the Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, essentially announced a fundamental philosophical rupture with the new majority over the principles of Lebanon’s social contract. That was to be expected, and it was undoubtedly time for someone to affirm without ambiguity that a sovereign Lebanon cannot conceivably coexist with an armed group that is more powerful militarily than the state. But surely, in order to succeed down the road, March 14 must tell us a bit more.
The Lebanese constitution, no less than the special tribunal and the implied or overt violence routinely directed by one group of Lebanese against the other, is undeniably of vital importance. Lebanon will remain a dysfunctional country until all three are resolved. However, if March 14 is to have any chance against a Lebanese government controlled by its political adversaries—a government that will almost certainly seek to eliminate the levers still held by March 14 in the system—then it must offer a broader program to its followers.
It is no longer enough to say that March 14 represents a different vision than Hezbollah and its allies. At this stage this vision needs to be carefully defined, and then transformed into a program of opposition. Though many Lebanese believe in the special tribunal, in the constitution and in the need for the state to provide security to all its citizens, most of them have more immediate concerns: economic stability, the high cost of living, bureaucratic corruption, the quality of their children’s education, the precarious supply of electricity and water, and myriad other problems the state has failed to resolve.
Neither Hezbollah nor Aoun has offered a systematic agenda for reform, but March 14 hasn’t either. And yet to capture the imagination of the Lebanese, the former majority will need to move beyond the constitution, the tribunal and safety from Hezbollah’s weapons, and address reform in a convincing way. Perhaps March 14’s inclination is to dump the sick Lebanese state into the lap of Hezbollah and Aoun so that they can absorb the blame for the breakdowns likely to occur. But what kind of shallow scheme is that for a political alignment that claims to embody Lebanon’s salvation?
Control of the state would be a powerful weapon in the hands of Syria, Hezbollah and Aoun. They would use that weapon, even if they anger many people by seeking to marginalize their political foes. That’s because there is legitimacy attached to the state. In 1992, Christians largely boycotted parliamentary elections. But the credibility of parliament survived and the state functioned normally without Christian endorsement. When new elections came around in 1996, many in the community recognized that it would have been better to be in the system than outside of it and went to the polls in droves.
For March 14 to be seen as a credible alternative to a state controlled by Syria, Hezbollah and Michel Aoun, it must think as if it were in charge of the state. For a time it was—at least of a sizable portion of the state. However, it never managed to stand for something distinct in Lebanese minds, hence the apologies now being issued.
For all its shortcomings, March 14 has respected the limits of Lebanon’s social contract. It has understood that sectarian intimidation can only elicit the same dangerous aspiration from those on the receiving end. March 14 has quite rightly concluded that the state alone should have a monopoly over the use of force, and that imposed coexistence between the national army and an armed group that is independent of the state, under the rubric “the army, the people, and the resistance,” is bound to fail. And March 14 has understood that Lebanon cannot survive by forever seeking out conflicts regionally and internationally, egged on by supreme egoists whose ultimate political objective is the stifling of pluralism.
But March 14 can also no longer afford to define itself merely by telling the Lebanese what it stands against. If the coalition’s leaders feel that now is the time to do battle over Lebanon’s future, in government or out, then let them inform their supporters, perhaps even themselves, what a March 14-dominated future would look like.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut and author of the recent The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle (Simon & Schuster).

Ziad Baroud
February 18, 2011
On February 17, the Lebanese National News Agency carried the following report:
Minister of Interior in the caretaker government Ziad Baroud held a press conference today at noon in his office at the Ministry to announce the completion of the document related to administrative decentralization based on the stipulations of the Taif Accord. He said: “I will not talk about the government formation in light of all the commotion and I choose to remain silent and speak as little as possible, considering that the issue requires calm and follow up from those concerned, at the head of whom is the prime minister-designate.” He added: “But this silence [does not] mean that the Interior Ministry’s work has stopped. Believe me when I tell you that the challenges of caretaking are growing more difficult. Therefore, we are continuing to work to ensure people’s security and interests.” He then described the situation as being one of “a power transition, which is natural and is related to political forces that chose to compete over power,” adding: “The caretaking situation has affected people’s interests and security, because productivity is weaker and the capabilities are not similar to those of a newly-formed government.”
He therefore mentioned “there are thefts and the ending of this phenomenon requires a political decision and striking with an iron fist. As for the traffic problem, it also requires a political decision.” And while he assured that “the situation is still acceptable,” he hoped to see the formation of the government “regardless of who is appointed as interior minister.” He announced on the other hand that he will assess his ministry’s work later on, assuring: “Although I do not like the word accomplishments, the Ministry has achieved around 90% of the promises we have made. As for what we did not achieve, it required a decree or a decision from the Cabinet or parliament.” He thus indicated: “The goal behind this conference is to announce the completion of the document related to administrative decentralization in accordance with the stipulations of the Taif Accord,” explaining: “Since the Taif Accord was concluded, the project to apply administrative decentralization was not linked to any decision, knowing it is a Lebanese demand and that administrative decentralization is not federalism.”
He stated that the “preparation of the aforementioned project was made through 100 questions that were put forward to complete the research featured in this document,” adding: “The document will feature the entire research work we have done. We are not claiming it adopted a comprehensive approach or comprehensive answers, but these answers can constitute the basis of the discussion.” He then considered that “decentralization is a developmental action that concerns the citizens more than the electoral law,” assuring: “The document will be a means to achieve two things: presenting the issue from a holistic angle, asking questions and seeking answers. It is a document-tool in the hands of all those concerned. We worked on it with parliament and its Speaker Nabih Berri and the head of the administration and justice committee, Robert Ghanem…” He stressed: “This is the work we have undertaken and the institutions will proceed, no matter who will occupy the Interior Ministry in the future.”
He also called on the media to contribute to the debates surrounding this issue, “just like it followed up on the preparations for an electoral law to be raised before the Cabinet once it is capable of discussing it...” He was asked about the attack against the president of the republic, to which he said: “The president of the republic should be distanced from the disputes. What is required is the enhancement of the constitutional authorities and the presidency is at the head of the constitutional institution, which is why this position must be strengthened.” He believed it was necessary for the entire issue to remain in its “institutional framework,” recalling that “the political forces have their projects which they see fit [to execute]. However, everything can proceed without escalation.” He was also asked whether or not he will accept the naming of an interior minister by someone other than the president of the republic, to which he said: “I enjoyed the best relations with all the forces to accomplish the tasks that were required of me, especially during the parliamentary and municipal elections and the events witnessed between the two. My performance aimed at opening the doors of the Ministry before all the sides, and my openness does not mean being loyal to the person who chose me as minister two years ago.
“President Sleiman gave me his trust and I will offer him my loyalty regardless of the positions. I was raised to be clear and loyal toward those who put their trust in me.” He continued: “We must expect everything in politics. We should not be sensitive vis-a-vis each and every word. I do not claim to be successful at this Ministry, but I completed many of my duties. The president of the republic offered me the necessary support along with some political forces, but still I suffered from harassments.” Baroud then expressed his admiration toward “Minister Khalifeh and his successful experience at the Health Ministry and the insistence of the minister of tourism on settling the Jeita Grotto file. Although he did not succeed, this does not mean that he failed.” He thus concluded by saying: “This government was burdened by accumulations due to the postponements.”

Hizballah: Governing Faction in Lebanon, Criminal Group Abroad
By Matthew Levitt
Washington Institute For Near East Policy
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3308
February 16, 2011
This week marked the sixth anniversary of the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri, killed in a Beirut bombing on February 14, 2005. Noting the solemn occasion, UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon issued a statement paying tribute to Hariri and the other twenty-two people killed that day and reaffirming the UN's "commitment to the efforts of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon to uncover the truth so as to bring those responsible to justice and send a message that impunity will not be tolerated." Meanwhile, outgoing prime minister Saad Hariri, Rafiq's son, pledged to abstain from the coalition government led by Hizballah, whose members include several of the Special Tribunal's primary suspects. Joining the political opposition, Saad called for mass protests on March 14 -- the date of the 2005 Cedar Revolution and the name of his own coalition -- and accused Hizballah and its allies of "lies, betrayal, and lack of loyalty."
Even as the Hizballah-led coalition prepares to take the reins of power, crowning the group as the dominant political force in Lebanon, a series of international criminal investigations have highlighted the organization's illicit activities at home and abroad. From money laundering and narcotrafficking to the Hariri assassination, Hizballah's track record of worldwide criminal activity may soon catch up with its political ambitions at home.
Conspiracy to Support the Taliban
The latest charges against Hizballah, released February 15, are the product of an international sting operation led by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), targeting seven suspects who allegedly conspired to provide support to DEA sources posing as Taliban representatives. Beginning in summer 2010, meetings in Benin, Ghana, Ukraine, and Romania were caught on audio and videotape.
Some of the suspects agreed to receive, store, and move tons of Taliban heroin, while others were wiling to sell the Taliban representatives substantial quantities of cocaine that could then be sold at a profit in United States. Still others -- including an Israeli national, Oded Orbach, and Alwar Pouryan, an Iranian national described by one of his fellow conspirators as "a weapons trafficker affiliated with Hizballah," both U.S. citizens -- allegedly held a series of meetings in Ghana, Ukraine, and Romania to discuss the weapons they planned to sell to Taliban representatives. These reportedly included surface-to-air missiles, antitank missiles, grenade launchers, and AK-47 and M-16 rifles.
Trafficking Drugs and Laundering Money
Last month, the U.S. Treasury Department blacklisted Lebanese drug trafficker and money launderer Ayman Joumaa, along with nine other people and nineteen businesses involved in his enterprise. According to Treasury, an extensive DEA investigation revealed that Joumaa laundered as much as $200 million per month from the sale of cocaine in Europe and the Middle East via operations in Lebanon, West Africa, Panama, and Colombia, using money exchange houses, bulk cash smuggling, and other schemes. In addition, several Lebanese entities were designated under the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act, including the landmark Caesar's Park Hotel, a shipping company, several money exchanges, and a holding company. Two weeks after this drug-related action, authorities targeting a Hizballah-affiliated Lebanese bank revealed that the group "derived financial support from the criminal activities of Joumaa's network."
On February 10, the Treasury Department identified the Lebanese Canadian Bank (LCB) and its subsidiaries as "a financial institution of primary money laundering concern" under section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act. Aided by key bank managers, including some with family ties to members of his network, Joumaa used LCB accounts to execute sophisticated trade-based money laundering schemes. For example, LCB used U.S. correspondent banking relationships to send suspiciously structured electronic wire transfers to American used car dealerships, some of which have come up separately in other drug-related investigations. The funds were used to purchase cars in the United States, which were then shipped to West Africa or elsewhere and sold. Ultimately, the proceeds were repatriated to Joumaa's network in Lebanon. Based on information from "law enforcement and other sources," Treasury reported that LCB was complicit in international drug trafficking and money laundering.
LCB is the eighth-largest Lebanese bank by assets, worth more than $5 billion in 2009, with thirty-five branches in Lebanon and a representative office in Montreal. Treasury linked LCB managers to Hizballah officials based outside Lebanon, including Abdallah Safieddine, the group's Tehran-based envoy. The bank was also tied to Hizballah through one of its subsidiaries, the Gambia-based Prime Bank, which Treasury revealed is partly owned by a Hizballah supporter in Lebanon.
Prime Suspects in Hariri Assassination
Hizballah is greatly concerned about the prospect of public indictments in the Hariri case, in large part because some of the group's senior members have already been named in the media as potential suspects. These include Qassem Suleiman, Hajj Salim, Abdul Majid Ghamloush, brothers Hussein and Mouin Khreis, and, most significantly, Mustafa Badreddine. The latter is the brother-in-law of Imad Mughniyah -- the assassinated chief of Hizballah's external operations, known as the "Islamic Jihad Organization" (IJO) -- and himself a senior IJO official.
Hizballah's acute anxiety over the forthcoming indictments can be seen most prominently in its public denunciations of the tribunal as an American project based on false communications data fabricated by Israeli spies embedded in Lebanon's telecommunications industry. Similarly, Hizballah chief Hassan Nasrallah has blamed "false witnesses." The group's public relations campaign against the tribunal began in earnest after a May 2009 Der Spiegel story reported new evidence implicating Hizballah as the primary suspect. That report also named Ghamloush as an Iranian-trained Hizballah operative who made the critical error of calling his girlfriend from an operational cellphone tied to the group. Following a February 2010 Le Monde report underscoring the Hizballah angle and requests by tribunal investigators to interview group members, Nasrallah took to the airwaves to condemn the prosecution as a U.S.-Israeli political tool. Exhorting the Lebanese people against cooperating with investigators, he went so far as to claim that Israel was behind Hariri's assassination.
Moreover, long before taking this public stance, Hizballah conducted quiet surveillance of the tribunal's headquarters in the Hague. The Netherlands considers Hizballah a terrorist group, and Dutch intelligence has been conducting bimonthly assessments of any potential threat to the tribunal. So far, they have found no active plots. What they have noted, however, is periodic surveillance of tribunal headquarters. In particular, before the tribunal occupied its newly refurbished building, a Lebanese camera crew was caught taking suspicious pictures and video of the unfinished facility.
Meanwhile, Hizballah regularly follows tribunal investigators on the ground in Lebanon and uses intimidation tactics against them. The group reportedly collects information on tribunal officials entering and leaving the country through airport surveillance, creating an environment in which investigators do not feel safe. The January 25, 2008, assassination of Lebanese Internal Security Forces captain Wissam Eid, who was detailed to the Hariri investigation, underscored those fears. According to a Canadian Broadcasting Corporation report, the investigation of Eid's murder -- which also falls under the tribunal's jurisdiction -- implicated two more senior Hizballah officials, Hussein Khalil and Wafiq Safa.
Conclusion
Many factors undermine Hizballah's self-promoted image as the incorruptible defender of the oppressed, but none as powerfully as the Hariri investigation. Charges of engaging in terrorism against fellow Lebanese (particularly a Sunni leader such as the late Hariri) are completely at odds with the group's longstanding position that it is first and foremost part of the fabric of Lebanese society, and only secondarily a pan-Shiite or pro-Iranian movement. Hizballah was widely criticized for occupying downtown Beirut in March 2008, when the government tried to rein in the group's airport surveillance activities and its maintenance of a private telecommunications system. At the time, many Lebanese viewed Hizballah as putting its own interests ahead of the country's. Yet that incident would pale in comparison to the charges the tribunal appears set to release within the next few weeks. In the meantime, Saad Hariri's calls for massive protests in Beirut on March 14, coming on the heels of events in Egypt and Tunisia, could pose a more immediate political challenge to Hizballah -- especially when it is already under the spotlight for operating less like a "resistance group" and more like a global criminal organization.
**Matthew Levitt is director of The Washington Institute's Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence.

The army’s regime
By: Tony Badran/Now Lebanon
, February 17, 2011
When commenting on Hosni Mubarak’s resignation, President Obama spoke about the Egyptian people’s “hunger for change,” which “bent the arc of history toward justice.” Perhaps. But for now, Egypt’s military will continue to run the show. The feel-good references to the American civil rights movement mask a worrying uncertainty over how the policies upheld by Egypt for the last three decades might now change, profoundly impacting US interests. While most observers are focusing on the Muslim Brotherhood as the agent of such potential change, it is the Egyptian military, and the course it decides to chart, that will be of the utmost consequence.
It was interesting to see how Western jubilation over the Egyptian revolution was shared – albeit for very different reasons – by the Iranian alliance system. The so-called “Resistance Axis” painted the events in Egypt and President Mubarak’s resignation with the brush of Egypt’s return as a “confrontation state,” joining in “resistance” against Israel.
At the Hezbollah-organized festival of “Egyptian Arabism and the path of Resistance,” the tone was delirious as self-professed resisters and rejectionists began discussing the reopening of the “southern front,” and calling on Egypt to “follow the model of the Resistance” and restore its leadership position in the “nationalist jihad” against Israel.
Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah had called on the Egyptian military to join the people in embracing Resistance during the 2009 war in Gaza. This was in line with the Iranian doctrine of distinguishing between the region’s peoples and regimes, painting the former as natural and willing supporters of resistance, hindered only by oppressive pro-Western governments.
Of course, despite Mubarak’s departure, there has been no actual regime change in Egypt. The system has been dominated by the military for decades and looks poised to remain so. Therefore, the notion that, merely as a result of Mubarak’s resignation, the Egyptian military is on the verge of embracing the people’s allegedly natural resistance ethos, is overstated.
All propaganda aside, however, one must still seriously consider what the posture of the new Egyptian government will be toward its relationship with Israel – a main pillar of the US order in the eastern Mediterranean.
While most observers have framed this issue in terms of the possible rise to power of the Muslim Brotherhood, the real question is how the military itself will come to view what everyone had heretofore believed it regarded as being its own fundamental interest. Specifically, will the military regime see a value in revising the policy it has upheld for the last 30 years, and if so, in what way?
There’s room for some speculation. The scenario of a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated (or -penetrated) regime aligning with the pro-Iranian camp and revoking the peace treaty with Israel may not be the likeliest to come to pass. One can conjure several arguments for why that is the case. For instance, the deep regional divisions and rivalries are likely to kick in, and Egypt, seeking to preserve a leadership role in the Arab world, would not wish to play a supporting role in Iran’s production, à la Syria. And so, the Egyptians will likely not turn around all of a sudden and welcome Hezbollah and Iranian arms-smuggling cells on their soil.
But just as the inherent regional rivalries impose limits, they also raise the point of how the military will go about managing them in order to press Egypt’s prestige and project influence.
A key question is the value the military will now assign to maintaining the peace treaty, at least in the way it had up to this point.
It’s probably safe to say that the military is unlikely to abandon the peace treaty. However, thanks to the way the Obama administration handled the situation, it may now decide that its price has gone up. One way to recalibrate the bill could be through controlled proxy violence – the tried-and-true tactic of Arab regimes – and through reviewing Cairo’s Hamas policy, if only to refresh the Obama administration’s memory about the value of an ally that kept the peace for three decades, and pursued shared objectives with the US.
More broadly, and again as a result of the Obama White House’s mistakes, the Egyptian military might chart out a more independent strategy, signaling that they can no longer be taken for granted. And so, rather than fall in Iran’s orbit, Egypt could decide to pull a Turkey and exhibit ever-increasing triangulation, freelancing and disregard for US priorities, thereby making cooperation much more difficult – and much more costly.
US influence and prestige have been badly battered during this episode, due in large part to the administration’s poor performance. The US will now have to scramble to ensure that its key strategic interests continue to be shared by the Egyptian military, and that its regional security architecture isn’t bent beyond repair. For the Iranian camp too is hungry for change.
**Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Katherine Butler : Iran's tyranny will pass, but not peacefully
The Independent
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/katherine-butler--irans-tyranny-will-pass-but-not-peacefully-2217193.html
International Studies: The propagandists in the state media are relentless, and in rural areas people don't have satellite TV, never mind Twitter or Facebook
Thursday, 17 February 2011
Where next? That's what everyone from the tweeters and youth organisers credited with mobilising Egypt's revolution, to the King of Bahrain and Colonel Gaddafi, is asking.
Who, just a few weeks ago, would have predicted protests on the streets of Manama or Tripoli? Yet, even if 2011 turns out to be the Middle East's answer to Europe in 1848, can we imagine the dominoes from Tunisia and Egypt tipping into Iran? Can we really see Ayatollah Ali Khamenei climbing into a helicopter and being airlifted off to exile? (Where, Brazil?) Can we imagine the jubilant crowds on Valiasr Street, the doors of the political cells in Evin prison flung open and Iran's women stamping on their chadors?
The ferocity of the crackdown on street demonstrations in Tehran this week (as well as the frenzy of executions under way in the jails) are signs of a regime with a terrifying will to cling to power. But they are also signs of the regime's weakness. Divided and out of touch, it was caught unawares by the scale of protests, failing to anticipate that Mubarak's overthrow would be hailed, not as a mirror of the 1979 Islamic revolution, but of Iran's "green" uprising of June 2009. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was so confident Egypt was on the brink of Islamic revolution that he said it was surely the work of the Twelfth Imam (a messianic Shia figure he believes in).
The opposition movement, on the other hand, has been hugely reinvigorated. And the shot in the arm from Egypt and Tunisia taps into a climate of growing anger over economic conditions in Iran. Shirin Ebadi, Iran's only Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has refused to accept the death of Iran's opposition movement despite evidence that it has been beaten into submission. "There is fire beneath the ashes," she told me last June. Just weeks earlier in Tehran, I'd found a mood of utter despondency. Yes, change will come, young people said, but it will be too late for us. Faced with the might of the state security apparatus, the movement's leaders had pulled back. And faced with Orwellian televised show trials, mass jail-rapes, torture and hangings, most people just wanted to get on with their private lives, or get out.
Yet, it was significant that what started as anger over a fraudulent election result, had, a year later, evolved into the demand for a different form of rule. Iran was never politically sclerotic like Egypt or Tunisia. For 30 years it has had different and competing centres of power, elements of secular government, a religious hierarchy and mediating forces between them. But it also has interest groups like merchants or students and until recently a credible judiciary. Criticising the political class is routine, mocking Ahmadinejad a national sport. What was never possible before June 2009 was to attack the name of the supreme leader, guardian of the revolution, or to question the Islamic system.
But the shocking repression of 2009 changed that. People stopped believing it was possible for the rule of law to operate within a reformed Islamic republic. Many came to realise that their state was not even a conservative theocracy any more, it was a corrupt militaristic dictatorship cloaked in religion, no different from any other tyranny. That's when the graffiti in the Tehran underground began mocking Khamenei, a sure sign that, as Abbas Milani, professor of Iranian studies at Stanford University, puts it: "Inside people's heads" a profound democratic revolution has already taken place.
Yesterday, it was reported that one of the two main opposition leaders, Mehdi Karroubi, has said he is prepared to "pay any price". Are enough ordinary Iranians also ready for such sacrifice? In Ryszard Kapuscinski's seminal account of the 1979 revolution, Shah of Shahs, he describes how the people's exhaustion with despotism gave way to the moment when the nation's patience snapped and fear evaporated. In Cairo last week, the moment when the citizens stopped believing the soldiers would fire on them is now identified as the turning point.
But the Egyptian model is not easy to transpose to Iran. Yes, there is a huge young population and their internet activism has kept the ashes warm, but Iran remains isolated. The propagandists in the state media are relentless, and in rural areas people don't have satellite TV, never mind Twitter or Facebook. Even for the millions of urban, middle-class Iranians who watched the Arab revolutions live on BBC Persian until it was jammed, there is also a deep-seated fear that revolutions can bring worse rulers than those they oust. Those who remember 1979 recall how secular forces were swamped by Khomeini and the clerics. Nor do Iran's reformists have any great faith that Western powers (who toppled an Iranian democracy in 1953) won't do a Libya-type deal with the regime over its nuclear programme. In some ways, everyone in Iran, and not just the rulers, has an aversion to risking the status quo.
Perhaps the biggest factor is the military. Egypt's army is drawn from conscripts. The 120,000-strong Iranian Republican Guards and the 10 million part-time militias, the Basiji, that they control, are separate from the regular army. To say they have a vested interest in preventing revolution is an understatement. They control most of the economy. The idea that they would stand aside for a peaceful transition to democracy is fanciful.
The Islamic regime will not be able to filter the internet and jam the BBC forever and the pressure cooker will, sooner or later, blow its lid. Unfortunately, this is a revolution that won't be bloodless when it happens.
k.butler@independent.co.uk
twitter.com/ButlerKatherine

Law of the jungle in Lebanon?
Daily Star
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&article_id=125018&categ_id=17#axzz1EAm7okka
Friday, February 18, 2011
Forging a new government in Lebanon has proved to be quite simple, judging by the dozens of Cabinet formations that have been “produced” by a range of politicians, all of whom lack the clout and authority to actually do so. Hurdles to forming a new government have always existed, along with a process of leaks and counter-leaks, but the process has never descended to the level where a leading politician can publicly dictate who should get exactly how much, and what, in terms of specific portfolios. The latest chapter in the saga unfolded this week when Michel Aoun declared that President Michel Sleiman had been “disqualified” from requesting a share of influence in the executive branch, after supposedly forfeiting his position as a consensus head of state. Meanwhile, other groups have taken a different track, solemnly declaring that Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati is free to do as he wants, and faces no constraints or pressure as he seeks to form a government. One might say that only a child would believe such a thing, but in Lebanon, not even children are politically naive enough to buy such rhetoric.
While forming a government has always seen regional involvement, and frenzied horse-trading, it has rarely reached such a dysfunctional level.
The names of “favorites” for certain ministerial portfolios are routinely tossed around, and these trial balloons often carry the names of the brothers, cousins, sons-in-law, and brothers-in-law of leading figures, signaling the degree to which national politics remains a “family affair.” For such wheelers and dealers, the Cabinet is merely a big cake, which deserves a fierce feeding frenzy. Meanwhile, the only person who has not made sweeping pronouncements about what is likely to come, how long it will take, and what the new government will stand for, is Mikati himself. Not to worry, since various sides have stepped into the breach and come up with their own Cabinet make-up, and details of its policy statement.
The process, as such, is an insult to the Lebanese, and it is a shame that democracy has come to this. If the formation process reflects the law of the jungle, only the strongest will have his say. By continuing in this fashion, leading politicians risk alienating one of the country’s biggest sects, namely young people, as they watch a captivating process these days. Unfortunately, this process is playing out in other Arab countries, where young populations are struggling for a say in deciding who rules them, and how. Lebanese politicians might think they can ignore the aspirations and needs of their youth-dominated population, but that is exactly what their colleagues in other countries believed a few short months ago.

Netanyahu lets Egypt build up its Sinai army to 4,000 troops
DEBKAfile Special Report February 18, 2011, Without serious aforethought, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have waved through another 3,000 Egyptian troops into North Sinai, topping their number up to 4,000 and virtually scrapping the key demilitarization clause of the 1979 peace treaty. debkafile's military sources report that the men belong to the Egyptian army's 18th mechanized infantry division. Earlier this month, Israeli permitted the first 1,000 Egyptian troops to enter Sinai to guard Sharm el-Sheik and the hotel and resort strips of eastern Sinai. Senior Israeli military officers report that Israel posed no conditions for its permission then or now – not even demanding a timeline for their withdrawal so that Sinai might revert to the military-free buffer status which buttressed the peace for 32 years. Neither were limits placed on the Egyptian troops' operations and movements.
There is little doubt in the IDF's high command that the Egyptian troops are in Sinai to stay, whereas Israel's forces on the their side of the border are seriously undermanned for dealing with an unforeseen cross-border flare-up.
Some of the Egyptian units have taken up positions along the main coastal highway from El Arish in northern Sinai to Qantara on the eastern bank of the Suez Canal, debkafile's intelligence sources report. Other units have taken control of the Philadelphi corridor between the Gaza Strip and Sinai, as well as the Rafah, El Arish and Sheikh Suweid police stations which Hamas and Bedouin gunmen overran and torched during the riots in Cairo. Their officers warned the Bedouin chiefs of northern Sinai that their orders were to shoot all lawbreakers.
Israel's easy and unconditional consent to an Egyptian military presence in Sinai paved the way for Cairo to ignore Israel's concerns about permitting an Iranian war flotilla pass through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean and up to Syrian military ports, even when an Israeli request to deny Tehran permission was routed through and supported by Washington. The military rulers brushed Israel's request aside and did not bother to reply. By Friday, Feb. 18, Jerusalem had discovered that Cairo's explanation for its North Sinai deployment was the need to guard from further attacks the pipeline supplying Israel and Jordan with gas, which was blown up by Hamas on Feb. 5, was nothing but a pretext. For now, Egypt is not repairing the damage or offering to resume supplies. The Netanyahu government missed its chance to make consent for the troop deployment contingent on the resupply of gas.

Israeli-Egyptian relations / Quiet military coup was behind Mubarak's resignation
By Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel /Haaretz/18.2.11
The Egyptian media were celebrating yesterday after it was announced Friday night that President Hosni Mubarak was stepping down, after what appears to have been a quiet military coup. For the first time in decades, newspapers came out uncensored. The headlines, befitting the day after the fall of a dictator who ruled for 30 years, were dramatic: "The people are victorious" (Al Shorouk ); "The people brought down the regime" (Al-Ahram ); "The January 25 revolution was victorious" (Al Gomhuria ). On Thursday night Mubarak announced he was transfering his powers to Vice President Omar Suleiman but would not resign. Senior U.S. and Egyptian officials yesterday said that was the turning point for the army. According to sources in Washington, agreement was reached in the middle of last week that the army would take over, but not on whether Mubarak would step down or merely cede his authority.
After Mubarak's Thursday-night address Egyptian military leaders, anticipating the anger of the protesters, told Mubarak that if he did not step down voluntarily the army would force him out. Suleiman announced that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces was taking control. The army emphasized yesterday that it will act slowly and cautiously. A spokesman delivered a message of assurance not only to Egypt but also to Israel and the international community. Egypt will honor its international agreements, the current government is provisional and preparations for democratic elections will begin. Yet many Egyptians fear that the civilian dictatorship will be replaced by a military one.
The army spokesman's statement did not define the relationship between the military council, headed by Defense Minister Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, and Suleiman. These are Egypt's two strongmen, who had been considered the main candidates to succeed Mubarak (together with his son Gamal ). Suleiman's appointment as vice president on January 29 made him the most likely successor, but the army's new dominance in Egypt may now make Tantawi the frontrunner.
Tantawi, 76, is considered a war hero in Egypt for his role as a battalion commander in the 1973 Yom Kippur War at the battle of the "Chinese Farm". He developed good relations with the Israeli security establishment recently. Yesterday he spoke on the phone with Defense Minister Ehud Barak. No details of their conversation were made available.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed yesterday's announcement, calling the Egypt-Israel peace treaty a "cornerstone of Mideast stability." Israeli security officials said they hoped the role of the Egyptian army would resemble that of the Turkish army, protecting the state and ensuring democracy. Egyptian officers recently assured Israel Defense Force officers that peace with Israel was a strategic choice, and that they would be moving ahead on elections in the coming months. However, Israeli security officials say that while it is not at all certain that Egypt will fall to the Muslim Brotherhood, instability in the region could require the IDF to make changes in preparedness in the long term.
Meanwhile, in Cairo yesterday, tens of thousands of people streamed to Tahrir Square to celebrate victory with dancing and singing, and fewer protests against the regime. But organizers of the revolution said yesterday morning they would continue to demonstrate until all their demands were met, among them revoking the state of emergency and releasing all political prisoners.
It is hard to say at this point how the army will treat the demonstrators. Reports yesterday from Cairo indicated that the protesters would meet on Fridays only. Congratulations to the Egyptian people poured in yesterday from across the Arab and the Muslim world. Syria, Yemen, Kuwait and other countries said a new era had begun in the Middle East, without mentioning that at least some of their regimes deny their citizens the same rights that Mubarak denied Egyptians. None of these rulers is immune. Although the "days of rage" declared in Syria and Gaza fizzled out, stormy protests in Yemen and Algeria yesterday signaled that Egypt's revolution may not be the region's last. What appears to be the beginning of a more democratic era in the Middle East is a mixed bag for Israel. On the one hand, the moderate axis in the region led by Egypt and Jordan is at risk. On the other hand, although Tehran is relentless its use of force and repression, there may be a glimmer of hope for a future revolution in Iran.