LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِFebeuary 03/2010

Bible Of The Day
The Good News According to Luke 13/105: "13:1 Now there were some present at the same time who told him about the Galileans, whose blood Pilate had mixed with their sacrifices. 13:2 Jesus answered them, “Do you think that these Galileans were worse sinners than all the other Galileans, because they suffered such things? 13:3 I tell you, no, but unless you repent, you will all perish in the same way. 13:4 Or those eighteen, on whom the tower in Siloam fell, and killed them; do you think that they were worse offenders than all the men who dwell in Jerusalem? 13:5 I tell you, no, but, unless you repent, you will all perish in the same way.”

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Interview with Head of the STL Defense Office François Roux/Now Lebanon/January 02/11
LF leader, Dr. Samir Geagea statement.Annahar/January 02/11
Canadian Ministerial Statement on Egypt/February 02/11
Egypt: The Turning Point, The Regime's Plan on What to Do Next/By: Barry Rubin/February 02/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for February 02/11
Mubarak Says Will Not Seek Re-Election /Naharnet
Pro-Mubarak forces rally against opposition as Egypt army urges return to 'normal life'/News Agencies
Pro- and Anti-Mubarak Supporters Clash at Cairo Protest as Army Sides with Mubarak /Naharnet
Syrians Call for 'Day of Rage' on Facebook and Twitter /Naharnet
Yemeni President Says he Won't Seek Another Term or Hand Power to his Son /Naharnet
Separate whirlwinds demolish two Middle East figures in one day/DEBKAfile
Maronite Bishops Relieved at Lebanon Calm, Express Regret at Regional Bloodshed/Naharnet
Geagea: Mikati’s cabinet will toe the March 8 line/Now Lebanon
March 14: Iran Should Take Care of its Internal Affairs Instead of Ruining Arab States /Naharnet
Francois Roux: Indictment Will See Light in a Few Weeks/Naharnet
Harb Hits Back at Aoun: He is Acting as Though he is Lebanon's President/Naharnet
Jordan's king sacks Cabinet; protests possible in Syria/Los Angeles Times
Dissidents Call for 'Day of Rage' in Syria/Voice of America
IAEA chief: We may use "special inspection" powers in Syria/Jerusalem Post
Aoun launches another attack against STL/Ya Libnan
Syria again holds the strings in Lebanon: analysts/AFP
Syria: Washington's New Direction/Huffington Post
Sami Gemayel slams Aoun's press conference/iloubnan.info
Pietton reminds Aoun of Lebanon's international obligations/iloubnan.info
'Al Liwa' says Aoun has clear agenda for new cabinet/iloubnan.info
Berri Favors Participation of All Sides in Cabinet Without Setting Prior Conditions on Shares/Naharnet
Jumblat: Miqati Government Won't and Cannot Terminate STL/Naharnet
Jumblat Slams Saniora, Advises Hariri to Learn Geopolitics/Naharnet
Aoun: Miqati Didn't Pledge to Anything that Caused Collapse of Previous Government/Naharnet

Mubarak Says Will Not Seek Re-Election
Naharnet/Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak pledged on Tuesday that he would not stand for re-election in September, in an address to the nation that came after eight days of anti-government demonstrations. "In all sincerity, regardless of the current circumstances, I never intended to be a candidate for another term," he said. Mubarak vowed that he would devote the next few months of his term to a peaceful transfer of power. He also pledged to ease conditions for presidential candidacy.(AFP-AP) Beirut, 01 Feb 11, 23:28

Pro- and Anti-Mubarak Supporters Clash at Cairo Protest as Army Sides with Mubarak
Naharnet/Pro- and anti-government supporters are clashing in Cairo's central Tahrir Square, where thousands of demonstrators calling for the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak have been keeping a vigil for days. An Associated Press reporter saw the two sides hitting each other with sticks and some were injured, with their heads bleeding. The clashes came shortly after the Egyptian military called for an end to more than a week of demonstrations against President Hosni Mubarak, throwing its support behind his embattled regime hours after he defiantly rejected demands to step down immediately and said he would serve out his term in office. The declaration was a clear shift in the stand of the army, which gave a tacit endorsement to the movement on Monday by saying it would not use force against protesters, and that they had legitimate demands. The emboldened protesters brought more than 250,000 people into Cairo's main square Tuesday to demand Mubarak leave within days. The president responded before midnight with a statement pledging to serve seven more months in office "die on Egyptian soil."
Representatives of his National Democratic Party immediately began making public statements trying to project the image of the regime as Egypt's sole path back to stability and security after the disruption of normal life caused by eight days of protests, and a wave of looting and arson that gripped the country over the weekend after the government pulled police from the street. The army's message to the demonstrators Wednesday had a conciliatory tone, appealing to young protesters to stand down "out of love for Egypt."
"You have started coming out to express your demands and you are the ones capable of returning normal life to Egypt," military spokesman Ismail Etman said in an address on state television. "Your message has arrived, your demands have become known." Immediately after his statement, state television ran a scrolling message reading: "The armed forces call on the protesters to go home for the sake of bringing back stability." Internet service also began returning to Egypt after days of an unprecedented cutoff by the government, and state TV said authorities were easing a nighttime curfew, which now runs from 5 p.m. to 7 a.m. instead of 3 p.m. to 8 a.m. Several thousand pro-Mubarak demonstrators were rallying in support of him in Cairo. Ahmed Abdel Hamid, representing The Revolutionary Committee, one of several youth groups that organized the protests, said that the regime was going all out to pressure people to stop protesting.
"Starting with the emotional speech of Mubarak, to the closure of banks, the shortage of food and commodities and deployment of thugs to intimidate people, these are all means to put pressure on the people" The movement against Mubarak is fueled by deep frustration with an autocratic regime blamed for ignoring the needs of the poor and allowing corruption and official abuse to run rampant. After years of tight state control, protesters emboldened by unrest in Tunisia took to the streets on Jan. 25 and mounted a once-unimaginable series of protests across this nation of 80 million. Mubarak address to the nation around 11 p.m. Tuesday did not calm public fury as clashes erupted in at least one city between his opponents and supporters.
On Wednesday morning in the capital, long lines formed at gas stations and bakeries. Fresh vegetables have all but vanished from Cairo, with farm producers from surrounding areas unable to ferry their goods to the city of 18 million people. Some cars in Cairo had small papers stuck on their windscreen declaring 'Yes to Mubarak." On the edge of Tahrir Square , protesters from the two camps were engaged in heated arguments over whether continued protests were beneficial after Mubarak promised reforms and declared his intention not to run again.(AP) Beirut, 02 Feb 11, 13:03

Syrians Call for 'Day of Rage' on Facebook and Twitter
Naharnet/Syrians are organizing campaigns on Facebook and Twitter that call for a "day of rage" in Damascus this week, taking inspiration from Egypt and Tunisia in using social networking sites to rally their followers for sweeping political reforms. Like Egypt and Tunisia, Syria suffers from corruption, poverty and unemployment. All three nations have seen subsidy cuts on staples like bread and oil. Syria's authoritarian president has resisted calls for political freedoms and jailed critics of his regime. The main Syrian protest page on Facebook is urging people to protest in Damascus on Feb. 4 and 5 for "a day of rage." It says the goal is to "end the state of emergency in Syria and end corruption." The number of people who have joined Facebook and Twitter pages calling for protests on Friday and Saturday is still relatively small, and some are believed to live outside the country. President Bashar Assad said in an interview published Monday that his nation is immune from the kind of unrest roiling Tunisia and Egypt. He was quoted in the Wall Street Journal as acknowledging that the events signaled a "new era" in the Middle East. But he said Syria, which has gradually shed its socialist past in favor of the free market in recent years, was insulated from the upheaval because he understood his people's needs and has united them in common cause against Israel. Social networking sites were integral to rallying protesters in Tunisia and Egypt. Facebook is banned in Syria, which makes organizing more difficult — even though many Syrians manage to access the social networking site anyway. More than 2,500 people have joined the page calling for protests on Feb. 4-5, with another 850 joining a page in favor of President Assad. Assad, a 45-year-old British-trained eye doctor, inherited power from his father, Hafez, in 2000, after three decades of authoritarian rule. He has since moved slowly to lift Soviet-style economic restrictions, letting in foreign banks, throwing the doors open to imports and empowering the private sector. But Assad has not matched liberal economics with political reforms and critics of the regime are routinely locked up, drawing an outcry from international human rights groups. He is seen by many Arabs, however, as one of the few leaders in the region willing to stand up to arch enemy Israel. And his support for Palestinian and Lebanese militant groups opposed to the Jewish state as well as his opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq has won him more support among his people than other Arab rulers.(AP) Beirut, 02 Feb 11, 07:13

Maronite Bishops Relieved at Lebanon Calm, Express Regret at Regional Bloodshed
Naharnet/The Council of Maronite Bishops on Wednesday expressed gratitude that the situation in Lebanon is fine despite complications and wished Premier-designate Najib Miqati success in forming the cabinet. "We thank God that the situation in Lebanon is fine and we wish the PM-designate success in his mission to confront the current situation," the bishops said in a statement read by Monsignor Youssef Toq. The bishops held their monthly meeting in Bkirki under Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir. Turning to the regional situation, Toq said: "The situation in the region and the Arab world is worrying. There are coups and revolutions that pushed Lebanon to the streets.""We express regret that blood was spilled," the statement said.
Beirut, 02 Feb 11, 12:16

March 14: Iran Should Take Care of its Internal Affairs Instead of Ruining Arab States
Naharnet/The March 14 General Secretariat renewed on Wednesday its commitment to the values proposed by the March 14 forces to Prime Minister-designate Najib Miqati, repeating its support to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. It said after its weekly meeting: "The STL is a central part of the Lebanese state's commitment to protect its citizens and leaders of free thought from political assassination." It also repeated its commitment to "tackle the distribution of Hizbullah's arms throughout Lebanon." The general secretariat added that it was "not surprised by Miqati's failure to publicly announce his commitment to the fundamental national and humanitarian values that the Lebanese had strived for and to the two elections that have reflected these principles." It also condemned Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun's statement that anyone seeking to take part in Cabinet should announce in advance his commitment to the March 8 camp's political agenda. Addressing Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi's call for the establishment of a new Islamic Middle East, the general secretariat said that Iranian officials should "take care of their internal affairs and listen to the calls of their people who are demanding a real democracy." Iran should address its own concerns "instead of pursuing its policy of sabotage and interference in the affairs of Arab countries," it stressed. The March 14 general secretariat concluded by calling on its supporters to prepare for the commemoration of the sixth anniversary of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on February 14. Beirut, 02 Feb 11, 15:49

Francois Roux: Indictment Will See Light in a Few Weeks
Naharnet/Head of the international tribunal's defense office Francois Roux has said that the indictment in ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's assassination case will be unveiled soon. "The indictment will see light in a few weeks," Roux told An Nahar daily on the sidelines of a conference for lawyers from the Arab world to discuss the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. His statement was published in the newspaper on Wednesday. The conference was organized at The Hague by the Scientific Association for Disseminating legal culture in the Arab World.
Beirut, 02 Feb 11, 08:58

Jumblat: Miqati Government Won't and Cannot Terminate STL
Naharnet/Druze leader Walid Jumblat assured March 14 forces that Najib Miqati's would-be government will not and cannot stop the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. "Miqati's government is not willing to terminate the international tribunal because no one, except for the Security Council, can terminate it," Jumblat said in remarks published Wednesday by Al-Akhbar newspaper. "But we need to work to prevent the negative repercussions of the (STL) indictment," he stressed. Jumblat said he will seek, together with Miqati and President Michel Suleiman, to form a "centrist bloc," but sensed sabotage tactics by the U.S. and the West. "What kind of sabotage will the U.S. and the West carry out?" he wondered. Jumblat hailed Miqati as a "man of confidence." He also lauded Suleiman for his mediation effort. He said both Suleiman and Miqati are seeking to form an "effective" government," contrary to rumors launched by March 14 forces and Marwan Hamadeh that say the Hizbullah-led March 8 coalition wants to change the government into a new security regime. Beirut, 02 Feb 11, 10:03

Syria again Makes a Return to the Heart of Lebanon Politics, Analysis
Naharnet/Lebanon's former powerbroker Syria has edged its way back into the heart of local politics, analysts say, after the militant Hezbollah and its allies toppled the Western-backed government of Saad Hariri. "Over the past six years, Syria has sought to regain its influence, step by step, until the time came when it could announce to the world that Lebanon was once again squarely in its hands," said Marwan Rowayheb, political science professor at the Lebanese American University. "The rift between the (Hariri) alliance in Lebanon and Syria all these years did not prevent the latter from retaining its political hegemony over Lebanon." Syria's political tug-of-war with Lebanon runs back decades. Damascus first sent its troops into its smaller neighbor in 1976, shortly after the outbreak of the 1975-1990 civil war, at the request of the Lebanese.
But Syria continued to wield its sway over Lebanon long after the war ended, maintaining a military presence until the 2005 assassination of ex-premier Rafik Hariri.
The killing of Hariri -- father of the outgoing premier -- sparked a wave of mass protests which, combined with international pressure, forced the withdrawal of Syrian troops in April 2005.
Syria was initially accused of being behind the murder but has consistently denied involvement. Saad Hariri's anti-Syrian alliance went on to win two legislative elections after Syria's withdrawal. But the Saudi-backed Hariri was dealt a severe blow last month when a rival Hizbullah-led coalition backed by Syria and Iran toppled his government in a long-running feud over a U.N.-backed probe into his father's murder. Hizbullah's leadership believes party members stand to be accused by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) and had been pressuring Hariri to cut all ties with the Netherlands-based court.
"The collapse of the Hariri government signals Lebanon's return to the pre-2005 era, and specifically to the 1990's," when Damascus reigned supreme over Beirut, said Salman Shaikh, head of the Brookings Doha Centre. "Syria is making it known to the world that peace and stability in Lebanon cannot be preserved without its help." All eyes now are turned to Najib Miqati, the billionaire businessman appointed -- with the blessing of Hizbullah and Syria -- to form a new government. Mikati is a personal friend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his appointment is widely seen as a sign that Damascus once again is pulling the strings in Lebanon. "Syria has long recovered the self-confidence and composure it lost in the 2005 crisis," said Peter Harling of the International Crisis Group, adding that Syria had acted on "pragmatic political calculations." "Syria arguably has the best hand ever -- combining the Shiites, the Druze, an important section of the Christians, and some key Sunni figures," Harling told AFP, referring to the Hizbullah-led coalition Damascus supports. He added however that contrary to the pre-2005 era, Syria today had to take into account other players, notably Iran, Turkey, France and the United States." The new government, experts say, will reflect the role Syria and other regional powers are set to play in Lebanon's future. "Syria managed the Lebanese crisis to its advantage and placed both hands over Lebanon," Shaikh said. "The question remains what lessons Damascus learned over the past few years and how that will be applied in the near future."(AFP) Beirut, 02 Feb 11, 12:10

Jumblat Slams Saniora, Advises Hariri to Learn Geopolitics
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat accused former Premier Fouad Saniora of hoping for the failure of Saad Hariri as prime minister so that he returns to the premiership. In an interview with the Qatari al-Watan daily on Monday, Jumblat said: "If I was Sheikh Saad I would have participated in Najib Miqati's government without hesitation."
Al-Mustaqbal bloc leader Saniora "hopes (to see) Hariri failing so that he returns to the premiership," the Druze leader said without naming him. When asked about Hariri's remarks that he was betrayed by his former allies who named Miqati as premier, Jumblat told al-Watan: "Betrayal and political assassination are emotional words."
Hariri "is out of the government today but could return tomorrow. This is the political game in democratic systems," Jumblat said. "The best thing for him is to learn the lessons of geopolitics. Geopolitics means (to have) special ties with Syria based on the Taef accord and (to consider) Israel the enemy." The PSP leader reiterated that he named Miqati as premier when he saw that "the door to the Syrian-Saudi settlement's success had been shut." He stressed that Damascus was not interfering in the cabinet formation process. "Our interests lie in having good relations with Syria. Saad Hariri had a historic chance to strike a personal deal and a political trust deal with President Bashar (Assad) when he went to Damascus but I don't know why he didn't succeed." Asked why he stopped backing the international tribunal, Jumblat said: "The court could be used to attack Lebanese unity and civil peace. Eventually, such tribunals could be seen as seeking justice but in reality they would be after political gains." Meanwhile, addressing the developments in Egypt, the MP commented in his weekly editorial in the PSP-affiliated al-Anbaa magazine: "The Egyptian people have taken their stand and President Hosni Mubarak has no choice but to listen to their demands and calmly leave with the symbols of his regime."
Furthermore, he questioned the "silliness" demonstrated by some western observers and analysts who fear that the substitute to the current Egyptian regime is an Islamist one.
"The Egyptian revolution can also do without (U.S. Secretary of State) Hillary Clinton's enlightened advice seeing as it wasn't waiting for the West's approval to be launched, which explains the American and French confusion with dealing with the revolution," he noted. Beirut, 31 Jan 11, 11:25

Berri Favors Participation of All Sides in Cabinet Without Setting Prior Conditions on Shares
Naharnet/Speaker Nabih Berri said Wednesday that he favored the participation of all parties in the cabinet without setting prior conditions on the shares of each side. Following talks with President Michel Suleiman at Baabda palace, Berri said that "all former opposition parties support the premier-designate." The March 8 forces also announce their cooperation with Najib Miqati "to form a national salvation cabinet," he said. He told reporters that he didn't reject the participation of both the March 8 and 14 forces in the government on condition that they don't set their shares in the government. Beirut, 02 Feb 11, 12:33

Report: Miqati Seeking Grace Period from International Community
Naharnet/Prime Minister-designate Najib Miqati is reportedly seeking a grace period from the international community before issuing political verdicts on his cabinet. Sources following up the consultations that Miqati is carrying out with March 14 officials told pan-Arab daily al-Hayat in remarks published Wednesday that the international community doesn't object to giving Miqati "a grace period that would be a test on the extent of his willingness to avoid a clash" with the west. The grace period could be extended after the completion of the policy statement, the sources said. Consequently, the international community is monitoring Miqati's moves and would issue its final verdict on the cabinet after it studies what the policy statement would say about the international tribunal, the sources told al-Hayat. Miqati has reportedly told both the March 8 and 14 forces that he won't make any commitment on the court which is still a bickering issue among the Lebanese. He is keen on launching dialogue to agree on common grounds over controversial issues, including the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, the sources said. Beirut, 02 Feb 11, 09:54

Harb Hits Back at Aoun: He is Acting as Though he is Lebanon's President
Naharnet/Caretaker Labor Minister Butros Harb criticized Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, saying "he is acting as though he is the president of the republic and the prime minister." Harb said statements made by Aoun on Tuesday "indicated that he wants no one else but him in the Government." "His (Aoun's) position is not in harmony with the requirements for the political action, but reflects a tendency to grasp power," Harb said in remarks published Wednesday by As-Safir daily. Harb stressed that March 14 forces' decision to participate in the new government will be unanimous. He ruled out that any March 14 official would take a unilateral step in this regard "since none of us is after a portfolio." He said negotiations between March 14 and PM-designate Najib Miqati focused on the possibility of forming a national unity government. Harb said March 14 was willing to join the Miqati government based on the previous policy statement which supports the Special Tribunal for Lebanon with reservations over the article that deals with weapons. Beirut, 02 Feb 11, 08:17

Aoun: Miqati Didn't Pledge to Anything that Caused Collapse of Previous Government
Naharnet/Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun stressed on Tuesday that a new government will be formed in a few days, adding that the movement has not yet discussed with Prime Minister-designate Najib Miqati the distribution of cabinet portfolios it seeks to head. He said after the movement's weekly meeting: "Whoever wants to take part in the new Cabinet should accept the new reality and the opinion of the majority." Furthermore, he noted that Miqati didn't pledge to any matter that caused the collapse of the previous government.
"No one can continue on accepting the Special Tribunal for Lebanon after becoming part of a new government … The STL is an assault against our sovereignty and it will be tackled based on Lebanese and international law," he continued. "No one is immune" and all files will be opened, which will be handled by the judiciary, he added.
"The problem isn't sectarianism, but corruption," the MP stressed. Addressing the January 25 violent protests against Miqati's appointment, Aoun stated: "Had we been attacked, we would not have retaliated and we prevented the eruption of strife." Asked if the opposition would be granted a blocking minority in a new Cabinet, he responded: "Is the blocking minority aimed at paralyzing the country once again? When we were part of the blocking minority, we didn't present anything positive, but we thwarted several issues that were against the country's interest."
Commenting on the protests in Egypt, Aoun said that the solution to the crisis lies in changing its regime. Beirut, 01 Feb 11, 17:59

Canadian Ministerial Statement on Egypt
http://www.international.gc.ca/media/aff/news-communiques/2011/043.aspx
February 1, 2011
 The Honourable Lawrence Cannon, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today made the following statement on the situation in Egypt:
“We are closely monitoring the developments in Egypt. While we hope for an early and peaceful resolution of the situation without further violence and loss of life, the situation is very volatile and we recommend that Canadians leave Egypt. So far, we have had no reports of Canadians having been injured or killed.
“The number of Canadians registered with us is now 1,365, up from 1,131 yesterday.
“The government is providing ongoing consular assistance to Canadians who wish to leave. Two flights chartered by the Government of Canada yesterday transported more than 200 Canadians from Egypt. Both flights arrived in Frankfurt, Germany, where they were met by consular staff who assisted in arranging onward travel and overnight accommodation.
“As of today, the DFAIT Operations Centre has dealt with over 13,350 calls.
“The first two successful flights yesterday also evacuated citizens of Australia, the United States and Great Britain. An additional flight, which landed in Frankfurt at 5:30 p.m. ET, successfully evacuated 131 Canadian passengers.
“We urge Canadians to avoid travelling to Egypt due to demonstrations and protests, civil unrest, high levels of criminal activity and violence throughout the country, and the threat of terrorist attacks.
“Canadian citizens in Egypt wishing to be evacuated should contact the Canadian embassy in Cairo at 20 (2) 2791-8700 (those calling the embassy from Canada must dial 011 before the number) or make a collect call to the Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada Emergency Operations Centre at 613-996-8885 or 613-943-1055.
“Friends and relatives in Canada seeking information on Canadian citizens believed to be in Egypt should contact the Operations Centre by calling, toll-free, 1-800-606-5499 or 1-800-387-3124.
“We urge the Egyptian government to embark on meaningful dialogue to respond to the wishes of the Egyptian people for democracy and economic reforms.
“We call on all parties to renounce the use of violence, and urge the Egyptian authorities to respond to the demonstrators peacefully.
“The Government of Canada has and will continue to support Egypt and other countries in the region in addressing the region’s political, economic and social obstacles to development.”

Egypt: The Turning Point, The Regime's Plan on What to Do Next
By Barry Rubin
February 1, 2011
http://www.gloria-center.org/gloria/2011/02/egypt-the-turning-point
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In 1978 and 1979 I followed the Iranian revolution on a daily and hourly basis. Even before the hostage crisis, recognizing the importance of this event, I began work on a book. The title? Paved with Good Intentions. This came from the expression, "The road to Hell is paved with good intentions."
This is precisely might be what is happening now. Out of "good intentions," the United States is headed--though I hopes it can still be averted--the biggest catastrophe in the history of its relations with the Middle East. Thirty years after Iran's revolution produced a similar situation, nothing has been learned by U.S. policymakers. Nothing.
Let me be clear: Removing Mubarak is NOT the problem. There is little doubt that he will lose power personally, something that would have happened within months any way given his age. The most hated and corrupt figures will flee the country.
The question is whether the regime--the current system--will survive. As of this moment (for reasons you can read four paragraphs down) I believe that the regime that has ruled Egypt for 59 years is finished. Is that a good thing? Well, it depends on what happens.
It is not inevitable that the Muslim Brotherhood will take over. Even the Brotherhood doesn't want that in the near future. It is far more likely, though, that Egypt would become a radical, anti-American state perhaps with some restraint (see point 1, below). The army will play a critical role one way or the other.
But nobody should neglect the reality of public opinion. Here's a report direct from the massive demonstration in Cairo today by a friend interviewing people there:
Demonstrators in Tahrir Square are increasingly saying this is not a fight against Mubarak. This is a fight against Israel and the United States whose interests he's implementing.
But, many will say, isn't it the fault of these countries for supporting Mubarak? The answer is: And would the situation be better if they had never done so? At any rate, it is January 2011 and, like it or not, one has to deal with the existing reality.
We now have for the first time a glimpse of what the Egyptian establishment is planning, from a source very close to the vice-president Omar Suleiman, who is the closest thing to someone running the country. His plan is to dissolve parliament; write a new constitution; call new parliamentary elections; and later hold presidential elections.
Suleiman is a very positive force. He has wanted to be president for a long time, hated the idea that Gamal Mubarak, the son, would succeed Husni. If anyone in Egypt can save the situation, he's the man. For his candid views, read this Wikileaks document. Of course, precisely because he understands the Iranian and revolutionary Islamist threat, the opposition will want to get rid of him as fast as possible.
This is probably the best that can be expected. Notice that this would all be organized by Suleiman and the regime-appointed officials. If this could be implemented there would be some hope. If the incumbent ruling party and army can hold together, perhaps some continuity could be possible. Of course, a critical question is how many votes the current ruling party might muster. Would Egyptians fearful of extremism vote for those associated with Mubarak? Or would extremist Egyptians put an extremist government into office?
But note also that this plan is carefully formulated. Mubarak doesn't want to go and the establishment either doesn't want or fears confronting him. This plan, then, goes around the problem. Mubarak stays and after a year or so there would be a new election, by which time he might have died, been disabled, step down, or choose not to run. One can see the army liking this plan.
Yet for this very reason--Mubarak stays on for a while--the opposition, smelling blood, might reject it.
1. The Turkish newspaper Radikal has a very interesting item about Professor Rashid Khalidi, the Edward Said Professor at Columbia University, who it describes as "a close friend of U.S. President Barack Obama." Khalidi, it says, remarks:
"A democratic Arabic world will resemble the democracy of Turkey. The new Arabic world would be more assertive and be less willing to accept Israel's demands. The new Arabic world would also be more independent."
This is worth considering. In other words, if the worst-case scenario is a radical Islamist Egypt, the "best case" may be merely a Turkish Islamist style regime. That means: increasing Islamization in Turkey, an alignment with Iran-Syria-Hamas-Hizballah, and an indifference to U.S. interests.
I'm not being sarcastic here. The first is incredibly terribly horrendous, while the second is just incredibly terrible. Still, for those who think the first case is too exaggerated perhaps they will understand that the "best case" isn't so great either.
Presumably "willing to accept Israel's demands" means its demand for survival. And being "independent" means ignoring what the United States wants.
2. But in fact that isn't happening. I would estimate that for everyone on the mass media (experts or journalists) who are saying the Muslim Brotherhood is a radical, pro-terrorist, anti-American group, there are 10? saying the opposite.
It is rather frustrating to know the Brotherhood's history, see how extremist are its statements (including calls for Jihad against America by its leader), and then be portrayed as some marginal loony for holding that view. One major television network called the Brotherhood an admirable courageous organization fighting for the poor.
The "good news," though is that Israel and the relatively moderate Arabs are being treated on the same level. We have gone from confronting a merely anti-Israel to a pro-Islamist, anti-American interests line. And that's in America itself!
3. It is one thing for Egypt to have a revolution that might well lead into chaos and a regional disaster; it is quite another to see the U.S. government supporting this event.
One of the many amazing things left out of the current discussion is the irony of a U.S. government that came to office apologizing for past exercises in American power has now engaged in the greatest single bullying action in history. He has dismissed a 60-year-old Egyptian ally after a few days of demonstrations, reportedly telling that government it could not use American weapons to defend itself.
In other words, he treated the sovereign government of Egypt the way the United States used to treat South American "banana republics."
I realize that the previous two paragraphs might sound callous toward the fact that this regime was a repressive dictatorship. It is understandable that Egyptians want more freedom (though it might be defined differently than Americans think). If they were to attain a stable, democratic regime then that would be wonderful. I don't think that will happen; no one will be happier than me if it does happen.
4. But this raises an interesting question: Will a future American president one day apologize to Egyptians for what Obama is doing this week? Will Egyptians ten years from now hate America even more for helping saddle them with a new, even worse government?
5. There was a simple alternative: to support the regime while urging it to make some concessions and changes. A variation of this is the Tunisian model: remove the dictator, maintain the regime, but bring in some reformers and moderates. Why demand regime change?
Here is how Martin Kramer put it brilliantly in 2002:
"[When] mention [is] made of double standards in U.S. policy. I always find it striking when the Arab and Muslim worlds grow indignant about this, since in their own polities, the gap between rhetoric and reality, between principle and practice, can be positively breathtaking. But there is one gold standard that everyone in the Middle East understands: you reward your friends, and punish your enemies. They all do it. Now it is proposed that the United States reward its enemies and punish its friends...to win the good will of Middle Easterners.
"If the United States were to do this, no one would ever again risk aligning himself with this country....People may not always like U.S. policy, but they have to admit that the United States has stood by its allies, friends, and proxies. You tamper with that credibility at your very great peril."
6. Americans tend to think people in the Middle East will be grateful when they do "good" things like toppling dictatorships, be they friendly (Egypt) or unfriendly (Iraq). But an editorial in the Syrian-controlled newspaper, al-Watan, reminds us of how things really work:
"The United States dropped Mubarak not because he carried out their agenda of repressing, starving and impoverishing his people, but because he failed to control and subject them."
In other words, the United States will reap no gratitude for what it's doing now. The line will be: the revolutionary forces of the people overcame the United States once again! Just as it happened in... (following a list of real or alleged victories.) The fantasies that the United States can somehow maintain good relations with Egypt under a completely new regime are word for word the same things being said about Iran in 1978 and 1979.
7. But why take my word for it? Here's the head of the "moderate" Muslim Brotherhood explaining how people think:
The United States is at "the beginning of its end and is heading towards its demise....Resistance is the only solution....It is withdrawing from Iraq, defeated and wounded, and it is also on the verge of withdrawing from Afghanistan. Its warplanes, missiles and modern military technology were defeated by the will of the peoples, as long as [these peoples] insisted on resistance - and the wars of Lebanon and Gaza," are proof of this.
It won't be long before revolutionary Islamists in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere add to this: "and the wars of Lebanon and Gaza, as well as the people's revolution against America and its flunkies in Egypt!"8. The White House spokesman on January 31 said the United States would accept the Muslim Brotherhood in government if it rejected violence and recognizes "democratic goals." Funny, that was the U.S. government position on Hizballah (which now rules Lebanon) and Hamas (which now rules the Gaza Strip). How did that work out?
What does "violence" mean? They won't need to use violence against the government if they control the government! They will advocate violence against U.S. forces in Iraq, against Israel, and to overthrow the remaining (they seem to be shrinking in number) relatively moderate regimes. Hamas--but not Hizballah--terrorists will be trained at camps in Egypt. The Egypt-Gaza border will be open and weapons will flow steadily every day.
Then, of course, it will be too late. The same people who set or backed this U.S. policy will say that the United States must now recognize reality and accept the regime unconditionally.

Interview with Head of the STL Defense Office François Roux/Now Lebanon/January 02/11
Arthur Blok, February 2, 2011
Head of the STL Defense Office François Roux (AFP photo/ Valerie Kuypers)
François Roux is not somebody who likes to be the center of attention. With the exception of some press conferences, this is the first major interview about the Special Tribunal for Lebanon given by the Head of the Defense Office (OTD). Asked why the public sees so little of him in the media, Roux answers in his own modest way: “It is not me to be in the spotlight, and to speak. For what reason? I only like to talk when it is necessary.”
Are you really not afraid the relation between Lebanon and the STL might change in the near future? There has been a fierce debate on the STL in the past few years. The government of Saad Hariri collapsed over it. What if the new government does not recognize the STL?
François Roux: Let’s first wait and see what the new government is going to say. A new government is bound by agreements that were signed by a previous government. I mean, look at a country like Belgium; in the past nine months they did not even have a government, and Belgium is still more or less functioning. I do not have the habit of dealing with problems before they arise.
All right, but a new wind is blowing through Lebanon. What will you do if there is a complete reversal of policy toward the STL under the new government?
Roux: I follow the position of the secretary general in this matter: The tribunal will continue to do its work. It does not change anything. A government might fall, but the state continues. That also goes for the Memorandum of Understanding we signed with them last year. It will continue to be valid.
Let’s talk about the indictment. Of course as the head of the OTD you know what is inside?
Roux: No. Absolutely not. Nobody knows. Only the prosecutor and the pre-trial judge know what is inside. Please do not fail to make that distinction. It is also not our job to know or to prepare ourselves with its content. The OTD is not involved in the cases, only in the law; we are not involved in the facts. Imagine that in the future we will be in a situation with many different defense teams on board. If we were to be involved in the facts, what about the conflicts of interest? We are here to support legally the defense teams, so at this stage we know nothing about the indictment.
Is it fair that the indictment is kept secret? After all these years of waiting it is finally drafted. And now we are not allowed to read it.
Roux: I actually support that. I will explain why. In this particular indictment I can imagine that there will be names of people that are suspected of involvement in the Hariri crime. What if at the end of the day the pre-trial judge says, “With this individual I do not agree. I do not want this name to become public.” Keeping the content secret is in the interest of the suspects, because of the simple fact that everybody is presumed innocent unless proven guilty. At this stage it is the best solution.
Consider the emotion in Lebanon on the ground. People need to know what is inside, don’t you think?
Roux: I do understand your question. Let me tell you that people in this tribunal work as fast as possible to advance this case. This goes for the prosecutor and for the pre-trial judge. We will get his decision as soon as possible.
What about all the leaks in the Lebanese media? Will this harm the future work of the OTD?
Roux: No comment. That is a question for the prosecutor, not for the OTD. My only comment is that at this moment we are in a period where everything related to the investigation is kept confidential. That is the law.
What about all the debates in Lebanon, for example about the false witnesses issue? It almost looks like a soap opera.
Roux: I can imagine that a future defense team would sue these particular people. For me this file is not closed. Not at all. I saw the debate in the press, but remember that these people gave a statement to the investigation team, which they signed themselves. You can always summon them to appear in court and let them explain what happened to the judge. Future defense teams should decide how to deal with that.
Considering all the attacks on the STL, do you regret you took the job?
Roux: Regrets? No regrets at all. Why? It is a very important and interesting challenge. This is the first time in international justice that a Defense Office in a tribunal is an independent organ. That is a very important progression, and a big step for international justice. We actually build our own strong organization. We worked very efficiently from the beginning of the mandate.
Is that not common practice?
Roux: In all of the international tribunals there is a special section reserved for the defense of suspects, under the authority of the Registrar. Initially they were there only to provide legal aid. Later this task was expanded in other tribunals by giving defense teams legal support. This was, for example, the case in the Special court for Sierra Leone Court and the Cambodia tribunal.
In the STL we got one step beyond that. The Defense Office is an organ on an equal footing with the OTP, the Registry or even the Presidency. We deal of course with legal aid, we support the individual defense teams, and on top of that we are also in charge of managing our own affairs in the tribunal.
Could you give me an illustration of that?
Roux: When somebody is accused by the tribunal, this person will be defended by a team of lawyers. The OTD will be there to give these teams all kinds of support. This could be legal support or providing legal aid to those who cannot pay for it themselves. We are also there to help teams with logistics, for example when they have to go to Lebanon. All this together will be the responsibility of the OTD.
When a defense team arrives here, they have absolutely no experience with this tribunal. They will be faced with an Office of the Prosecutor that knows all the ropes. The prosecution knows all about case law, the practice, the procedures, etc. Our role here is to train them, to update them in all ways possible, so they can be on an equal footing, and so they can really defend the accused and make sure it will be a fair trial.
So if somebody shows up with a weak team, you will advise that person to change the team?
Roux: Usually it is the other way around: the accused complains about his defense team. Or we realize a defense team is not performing properly. In those cases we could advise – in extreme cases – for a change of team. That is indeed part of our new role.
In the past two years we have been preparing everything for the moment the first team will arrive. For example we have put together a list of lawyers that could be assigned under the legal aid scheme. We have interviewed over a hundred lawyers to appraise their skills, performance, etc. Once they made it on our list we provided them with a four-day intensive training in which we explained what this tribunal is all about, and what are the novelties. Think of matters regarding terrorism, the possibility for trials in absentia and the special role of the pre-trial judge. What if you were to end up in a situation with nobody in custody here in Holland? What will be your role, then, as an OTD?
Roux: Our role in the case of absentia trials is all the more important. Because this is a novelty in international law. This is the first time that we can have such a trial. Our role would be to support defense teams in that scenario by putting all our skills at their disposal, so that a trial like that can be a success.
What if, for example, individuals in Hezbollah are indicted and the Lebanese government simply refuses to arrest people from that organization?
Roux: All right, let me explain how this is going to work. Of course no one knows at this stage who the accused are going to be. Once a pre-trial judge summons somebody to court or when he issues an arrest warrant, and the person is not arrested for whatever reason, this person is nevertheless accused. The Trial Chamber can decide to start a trial in absentia.
Our role will be to appoint a defense team. This team will be provided with all the legal documents from the prosecution. And their role will be to challenge those documents and the arguments of the prosecution, but without receiving instructions from the accused, because he is not there. The fact that he is not there does not mean he does not have the right to be defended. It might be difficult, but it is possible.
With all due respect, if nobody ever gets arrested, wouldn’t you feel it was all for nothing?
Roux: Justice can work and prevail, even if that means there will be no arrests. The accused can be at least defended by the best possible defense team. Obviously this is not an ideal situation, but it is always better than nothing.
Let me ask you about a time frame for the coming months. Pre-trial judge Daniel Fransen is probably going to say something about the indictment before the end of this month. And then what?
Roux: Possible. After his ruling, the relevant authorities will have 30 days to react. They can either choose to arrest or not. If they refuse, the pre-trial judge can decide to start a trial in absentia. After that they will come back to me and say, “Mr. Roux, we are opening a trial in absentia, please design a defense team.”
Do you realize this whole procedure could lead to even more civil unrest than we already have in Lebanon? It looks nice on paper, but in Lebanon some people have guns. Much different from Belgium.
Roux: Maybe it will become difficult, but I do not know what will happen. Nobody knows really.
The STL is accused by a large part of the Lebanese population of having a hidden agenda – that it is being used as a tool first to get the Syrians out, and now to get rid of the Resistance. How do you see that?
Roux: That is not what I understood actually. There was a recent poll that showed that about 60 percent of the Lebanese population supports the tribunal and its work. I know that was just a poll, but still it was very interesting to see that you have the media, the politicians who talk a lot and a poll in which 60 percent of the population says we want to know the truth what happened to Hariri.
Unfortunately, the people of Lebanon are not in charge of their own country. A large part of the political establishment is saying: This is a biased court, created in an illegitimate way. To them this is also not up for debate. If we look at the way the STL was established, is that legitimate according to you?
Roux: I can imagine that a defense team will raise this issue in the future. That is possible.
But is it fair to say it was not created in the right way, or not?
Roux: We will see. We will deal with it, once this issue is raised.
Don’t you have an opinion about that yourself?
Roux: Of course I have my own opinion, but I keep my opinion to myself.
Do you expect the same kind of problems as the prosecutor? They have been under fire ever since they were established.
Roux: That is why in the past two years we have explained the role of the OTD to a large number of people. I visited Lebanon five or six times. We established, for example, excellent contacts with the Tripoli and Beirut Bar Associations. We have the support of both organizations.
We met politicians and also other individuals. We explained to them that this is a legal institution, not a political one. And that’s what it is indeed: an independent institution, next to the Prosecutor’s Office, and next to the judges – all independent organs that work separately from each other. The mere fact that there is an OTD means that the accused will be defended properly. This all highlights the fact that it is a judicial process, not a political one.
What do you say to the 40 percent of the Lebanese population that see this institution as a joke?
Roux: I would like to recall for them my motto: Better to light a candle than to curse the darkness. This means basically: It is better to do something than nothing.

Samir Geagea
February 2, 2011
On February 2, An-Nahar daily carried the following report:
[Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said]: To the March 14 forces, the new majority is Syria and Hezbollah and means [the return] of the era of tutelage. This majority will behave based on the old method in regard to public freedoms, the proof of that being the pressure we witnessed before the designation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati to form the government…
Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati did not make a real offer in regard to the tribunal during the meeting he held with [me].
None of the March 14 forces will participate in the upcoming government if their fears are not taken into consideration. They will thus proceed with their work to prevent the situation from going back to the way it was between 1990 and 2005.
These forces will not even consider the participation of each party alone since that should be done collectively, denying the wish of the other team to form a national unity government, in light of the statements it has launched starting with President Bashar al-Assad and ending with [Deputy Hezbollah Secretary General] Sheikh Naim Qassem. What they want is to take one party from the March 14 forces to claim that their government is one of national unity. Everyone knows our position vis-à-vis the way Prime Minister Najib Mikati was designated – although we in the March 14 forces hold Prime Minister Mikati as a person in high esteem. We all know that his designation was made through the use of power and the actions of foreign powers which are not far from Lebanon.
[Contacts were agreed on with former President Amin Gemayel] at the level of the command of the March 14 forces, because the media outlets of the other team are trying to depict the situation in a different way. Neither the Kataeb Party, the Lebanese Forces, the Future Movement, the Ahrar, the independent figures, nor the National Bloc will participate [in the government] in an individual way. [I warn the other team] against playing childish games.
[My meeting with Mikati] was direct and honest. We conveyed our fears toward the majority that named the prime minister, considering that no one gives something without taking anything in return. They may or may not have placed conditions, and I did not sense this during my meeting with him. In the end, this is the objective reality…
There is fear over actual independence and the decision regarding foreign policies and the defense strategy… in addition to the return to the same old practices in terms of the pressures exerted on the students and the spread of corruption. There are two main fears: the international tribunal and the illegitimate arms. Minister Mikati tried to reassure me and informed me that his goal was to reach consensus over the issues of dispute, namely the tribunal and the arms. I told him it was out of the question to debate any of them, after they had earned national consensus around the dialogue table… Following the experiences we have gone through, we must recognize that even if these weapons are inside warehouses, they are still casting their weight and disfiguring political life.
The problem is not with Prime Minister Mikati as a person, and had he been designated with a “Mikatist” majority we would not have asked him about anything. However, the new majority has nothing to do with Prime Minister Mikati, rather with the former tutelage regime. The March 14 team is awaiting Prime Minister Mikati’s decision, in order to come up with a clear vision in regard to the principles. In this context, we are ready to debate any ideas and to adopt the required position accordingly. [In regard to whether or not the participation of the March 14 forces in the government would give legitimacy to his government and constitute a coup against Saad Al-Hariri], we will check any offer even if we are certain about its content.
We have tried to check whether or not the prime minister-designate enjoys a wider margin of maneuver, because the issue is not just a minor choice. It is a matter of two completely different directions.
We will not even consider the participation of each party alone, rather that of all the March 14 forces combined. Until now, no clear offer was presented.

Geagea: Mikati’s cabinet will toe the March 8 line
February 2, 2011 /Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said on Wednesday that members of a cabinet headed by Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati will be required to adhere to the principles of the March 8 coalition. “Speaker Nabih Berri has always been subtle, but the members of a new cabinet are being asked to fully abide by March 8’s convictions in order to participate [in the cabinet],” Geagea said, after Berri called for involving all parties in the new cabinet.
In an interview with the LF’s official website, Geagea said that Berri’s statement does not match Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun’s Tuesday remarks.
“It has been clearly shown by Aoun that the [new] cabinet will be loyal to Syria, Hezbollah and March 8 principles.”
He said that Aoun’s recent statements contradict his past ones, “in which he used to stress that all parties should take part in the cabinet.”
He also rejected Aoun’s statement that the results of the 2009 parliamentary elections – in which March 14 won the majority of seats – were falsified.
“The 2009 elections were clean…and if Aoun assumes that he now has the majority, we are ready to hold early elections [to prove him wrong].”
“Our position as March 14 is to either participate in [the new cabinet] all of us, or to not participate at all,” Geagea also said, reiterating March 14’s commitment to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) and the limitation of non-state weapons.
Aoun on Tuesday questioned whether March 14 should be given a blocking third of seats in Mikati’s new cabinet, saying the country should not return to political paralysis.
Mikati, who was appointed to the premiership last week with the backing of March 8, has called on all Lebanese parties to join his upcoming cabinet.
However, March 14 parties have said that they will not take part in a cabinet headed by Mikati and have also asked that he first clarify his stance on non-state weapons and the STL, which is investigating former PM Rafik Hariri’s 2005 murder.-NOW Lebanon

Separate whirlwinds demolish two Middle East figures in one day
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 2, 2011, Close observation of the circumstances surrounding the seven-day popular uprising that ended Hosni Mubarak's 30-year old presidency cannot avoid noticing the skillful choreography which brought it up to a well-judged climax Tuesday night, Feb. 2. In fact, the hands of the United States, Britain and the Egyptian army heads were plain to see at every stage. Their agents pushed the levers for speeding up the street action when it flagged and hit the brakes before it went too far.
Interestingly, the outburst of fury appeared to be leaderless and totally spontaneous, an apparent liability in a popular revolution. In fact it was an asset. Mubarak's dread security forces were bereft of the power to break up the protest movement by the usual means of grabbing the ringleader, figure or group at its head. They were also denied an object of penetration for finding out what the street had in store and when - and getting their blows in first.
Without these levers of control, Mubarak's week-long struggle to keep his head above water was doomed from the start.
The master choreographers chose well when they set up their main platform at Cairo's Tahrir Square. It provided the journalists housed in the luxury hotels overlooking the square a ringside seat over a perfect arena for their cameras. The crowd scenes played out under their hotel windows were graphically and dramatically presented in the world's living rooms as an anti-Mubarak movement springing up spontaneously across the country.
In fact, most of the week, excepting the day of the March of Millions on Tuesday, the demonstrations outside Cairo did not exceed hundreds or a few thousand at most.
The identifies of the choreographers will no doubt surface in the months ahead as the reins of power slip out of Mubarak's hands and into those of the new leaders. A hint was provided by US President Barack Obama early Wednesday, Feb. 2, when he reported on his farewell phone conversation with Mubarak. Obama, who from the first made no secret of his sympathy for the protesters, told Mubarak bluntly his time was up. What must happen now, he said, is the orderly transition of power to groups of people with a wide range of views.
The US president may be presumed to know who those people are and the nature of their views.
Mubarak, along with Saudi Arabia's royal house and Israel, was for 30 years one of America's three staunchest allies. If the 82-year old Egyptian leader finds it hard to smoothly sustain the transition momentum, the mechanism which fostered the protest movement will not doubt apply another prod to remind him of his pledge to leave at the end of his term in September.
We may not have to wait until then for his successors to step out of the shadows and into the light as the members of the old regime step down.
The termination of Maj. Gen. Yoav Galant's military career, just weeks after the government designated him Israel's next chief of staff, is a separate and different episode from Mubarak's ouster. But they have common features. For one, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu cancelled Galant's appointment to the top IDF job Tuesday on the same day as Mubarak publicly accepted his marching orders.
Neither case developed spontaneously without help.
Galant was disqualified under deftly-choreographed public pressure on the parties who were asked to review his appointment. The Attorney General Yehuda Weinstein informed the prime minister Tuesday, Feb. 1, that he could not defend the appointment in the High Court against a petition revolving around a decade-old dispute over land he acquired for his home in Moshav Amikam. The moshav itself is divided on this issue. Netanyahu thereupon revoked the appointment. Defense Minister Ehud Barak refuted the AG's view but said he would respect it and named the Deputy Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Yair Nave stopgap for 60 days until a new candidate is approved.
The following day, retired Judge Yaacov Turkel, head of the Civil Service Appointments Commission, said Galant had come out of every stage of his exhaustive pre-appointment examination with a clean sheet. The commission had agreed unanimously that if there had been issues in his past, they were too trivial to bar his appointment, a view the judge still holds. In a radio interview, he hinted that a witch hunt in which the media had colluded had brought Gen. Galant down. He too found it hard to believe that justice had triumphed in this case.
The fact that the only winner was the outgoing chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi, who ends his stint on Feb. 14, provides a clue to the hand behind it. There was another one: Wednesday, two opposition leaders from Kadima and Labor challenged Barak for failing to extend Ashkenazi's term to bridge the gap until his successor is selected.
Throughout the ups and downs of this affair, Ashkenazi made no secret of his opposition to the Galant appointment as part of his campaign against the man responsible for it, Defense Minster Barak.
But it was also part of another campaign which Ashkenazi has been waging without publicity: to take the IDF out of the jurisdiction of the defense minister, a political civilian appointee, and award the IDF chiefs greater autonomy.
Ashkenazi has been seeking to demote the defense minister to the professional level of the US military secretaries for the ground forces, air force and navy and strip him of the powers he holds today as senior strategic policy-maker like the US Secretary of Defense. To this end, the chief of staff while still in uniform lobbied in secret for the amendment of the Basic Law: Israel Defense Forces. He and his team had even prepared a draft amendment for presentation to lawmakers.
While it may be legitimate for a general to promote ideas and reforms, the defense minister is equally entitled to dispute them. In this case, however, Ashkenazi and his aides crossed certain constitutional red lines while still members of the armed forces, because their campaign was designed primarily to catapult the outgoing chief of staff into politics after he became a civilian.
Just as Mubarak's enemies chose Tahrir Square in Cairo as their arena of confrontation, so Galant's opponents filmed his moshav home from every possible angle with accompanying maps marked with bold red circles just like a crime scene. As in Tahrir Square, all that was missing was the hand which guided the cameras to target.
Besides General Galant, who ends a brilliant army career in undeserved ignominy, the big losers of this affair are the prime minister and defense minister. The two men responsible for Israel's security and wellbeing missed the unfolding of a deliberate scheme that could only harm the country and the IDF and failed to abort it. Galant's fall may well presage theirs. Ashkenazi and his following will target them next.

Pro-Mubarak forces rally against opposition as Egypt army urges return to 'normal life'
Haaretz/By Anshel Pfeffer and Reuters
Tags: Israel news Egypt protests
Hundreds of pro-government supporters attacked protesters in Cairo's central square on Wednesday, where thousands were pushing ahead with demonstrations demanding the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak despite the Egyptian army's public appeal to restore "normal life."
Mubarak supporters were out in the streets for the first time Wednesday in large numbers, with thousands demanding an end to the anti-government movement a day after the president went on national television and rejected demands for him to step down.
Fevruary 2, 2011.
The president did say, however, that he had no plans to seek re-election.
Those calling for Mubarak to go have been out in Cairo and many other cities for more than a week, and they drew by far their largest crowd on Tuesday when at least a quarter million packed the central Tahrir Square and the downtown area around it. Hundreds of thousands more have turned out in other cities across this nation of 80 million.
By early afternoon, Mubarak supporters were breaking through a human chain of anti-government protesters trying to defend thousands gathered in Tahrir Square.
They tore down banners denouncing the president and fistfights broke out as they advanced across the massive square in the heart of the capital. At least 10 of those involved were injured and some were bleeding from their heads.
The anti-government protesters grabbed Mubarak posters from the hands of the supporters and ripped them.
A Reuters witness said those involved in the clashes were using stones and sticks, but not weapons. The witness also said that Mubarak supporters charged on horses and
camels towards Tahrir Square.
"These are the thugs of the (ruling) National Democratic Party. I was at the entrance of Tahrir making a human wall and a and then a group ... scuffled with us and then a rock hit me," said Waleed who was bleeding from his head. "I want Mubarak out."
The confrontations began just hours after a military spokesman went on national television and asked the protesters to disperse so life in Egypt could go back to normal. During the clashes, soldiers and tanks that have been guarding the square did not appear to intervene.
"The army forces are calling on you ... You began by going out to express your demands and you are the ones capable of restoring normal life," a military spokesman said in a televised statement, adding that the message and demands of the people had been heard.
The army has previously issued statements saying it would not use violence against opposition protesters and saying it understood the "legitimate demands" of the people.
Egyptian authorities announced that curfew times would be shortened starting from Wednesday, to run 5 P.M. to 7 A.M. instead 3 P.M. to 8 A.M. Internet service also began returning to Egypt after days of an unprecedented cut-off by the government.
Although SMS messaging was still patchy, mass circulation messages were landing. One which arrived on Wednesday said:
"The armed forces are concerned with your security and well-being and will not resort to the use of force against these great people." It was reiterating the army stance announced on Monday that they would not use violence against protesters.
The core of opposition protesters will have to convince the broader public to keep up the momentum in pushing for Mubarak to go in a country where many Egyptians have been shocked by the convulsions on their normally quiet street.
At least 1,500 people - including members of the opposition parties - were in the central square, which has become a focal point for the protests and drew hundreds of thousands on Tuesday. Many had camped in tents and under blankets, determined to stay until Mubarak goes.
Banners measuring some 20 meters long read: "The people demand the fall of the regime."
Many shops remained closed in downtown on Wednesday, but some customers said on Tuesday that several ATMs they tried were working and giving out cash as normal.
Many Egyptians live hand to mouth and have felt the strain as protests demanding Mubarak step down have spread across the country, disrupting services ranging from food supplies to cash machines.
An Egyptian opposition coalition called on Wednesday for more protests and said it would only enter into a dialogue with Vice President Omar Suleiman if Mubarak stepped down.
But some ordinary Egyptians, tired of the disruption, appeared ready to accept Mubarak's concessions.
A senior official indicated that the government also felt the protest had lost the momentum.
"I think it's over. We have demonstrations all over the country to support Mubarak. The minute [Mubarak] finished his speech we had 3,000 people under the [state broadcast] building. I think the mood is turning," he told Reuters.
"We have waited on him for 30 years, can't we give him eight more months?" asked Mohamed Ahmed, a lawyer, in downtown Cairo.
"The president has tackled most of the youth demands and he had done a lot to the country and served it for so long. He is a hero of war and peace he deserves to leave with dignity," said another lawyer, Kamal Mohamed Mansour.
As the opposition protests picked up speed, dozens of Egyptians supportive of the president gathered just outside the army perimeter surrounding Tahrir on Wednesday, chanting "Our soul and blood we sacrifice for you Mubarak" and "No to destruction, give a chance to Mubarak". One sign read: "Yes, Yes, Mubarak".
In Suez, some 300 to 400 pro-Mubarak supporters carried Egyptian flags and banners saying "Yes to Mubarak", "Mubarak, you are in our hearts".
The organizing committee which controls access to Tahrir Square was taking precautions for fear that pro-Mubarak groups might try to cause trouble there, organizers said.
At the checkpoint on the western side near Kasr el-Nil Bridge, members of the committee prevented about 10 pro-Mubarak protesters from entering the square.
Similarly, on Talaat Harb Street to the northeast, the organizers made a human chain across the road. One of them said they had identified a group of state security people who had tried to enter Tahrir Square.
State television coverage of the demonstrations has flip-flopped from almost totally ignoring them in the first days to extensive coverage since Friday's mass "Day of Wrath".
Immediately after Mubarak spoke late on Tuesday, state television showed images of pro-Mubarak protesters in the square.
"The demonstrations I saw yesterday looked like they were orchestrated," said Mayan Fawaz, a 30-year-old PR professional, who saw nearly 2,000 pro-Mubarak demonstrations near the area of Cairo where she lives on Wednesday.
"If these people were really pro-Mubarak where on earth have they been the past week? People on the streets were saying these demonstrators were hired by the NDP [ruling party]," she said.