LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِApril 22/2011

Biblical Event Of The Day
The Good News According to John 19/31-37: "Therefore the Jews, because it was the Preparation Day, so that the bodies wouldn�t remain on the cross on the Sabbath (for that Sabbath was a special one), asked of Pilate that their legs might be broken, and that they might be taken away. 19:32 Therefore the soldiers came, and broke the legs of the first, and of the other who was crucified with him; 19:33 but when they came to Jesus, and saw that he was already dead, they didn�t break his legs. 19:34 However one of the soldiers pierced his side with a spear, and immediately blood and water came out. 19:35 He who has seen has testified, and his testimony is true. He knows that he tells the truth, that you may believe. 19:36 For these things happened, that the Scripture might be fulfilled, �A bone of him will not be broken.�* 19:37 Again another Scripture says, �They will look on him whom they pierced.�

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Gathering Clouds for Syria's Assad/By: Mohamad Bazzi/ April 21/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for April 21/11
West-backed Libyan rebels face Qaddafi who is aided by China, East Europe/DEBKAfile
AMAL, Hizbullah to Address Illegal Construction as 2 People Killed in Clash over Violations in Tyre/Naharnet
Report: Israel Fears Kidnap Plots by Hizbullah Abroad/Naharnet
Ban Urges Miqati to Speed Up Govt Formation: Militias Threaten Lebanon, Region Stability/Naharnet
ISF 'Thoroughly Examines' Video of 7 Estonians, Rifi Doubts Abductors are after Ransom/Naharnet
Italy Seeking to Reduce Troops in Lebanon/Naharnet
SYRIA: Prominent dissident writer says country is ripe for change/Los Angeles Times
Why Does Syria See a Threat Coming from Tiny Lebanon?/Time
Syria: States of emergency/The Guardian
Syria: opposition figures arrested as protests continue/The Telegraph
Bloodbath would follow overthrow of Assad in Syria'/J.Post
Clinton says Syria must stop detention, torture/Reuters
Lebanon bans pro- and anti-Assad demos in north/AFP
US-Backed Alliance In Lebanon Denies Backing Syria Protesters/Zawya
Bahrain Eases Action Against Lebanese Expats/Zawya
Lebanon: 2 killed in clash over illegal building/AP
Geagea Says Kidnapping of Foreigners Sign that 'Illegitimate Arms' Hinder State Establishment/Naharnet
Search Procedures at Northern Border Intensified to Thwart Smuggling/Naharnet
Mustaqbal Denies Link to Tripoli Rally as Hizb ut-Tahrir Remains Adamant on Holding Demo/Naharnet
Preliminary Deal on Lineup Brings Hope of Cabinet Formation after Holidays/Naharnet
Report: Israel Pressured U.S., France into Halting Military Assistance to Lebanon/Naharnet
Miqati Meets Suleiman, Calls for Consolidating the Country/Naharnet
Berri Says Cabinet 'Gift' After Easter, Formation Needs a 'Prayer for the Dead'/Naharnet
Qahwaji: We Seek to Prevent Lebanon from Becoming Center to Create Unrest in Any Arab State/Naharnet

Ban Urges Miqati to Speed Up Govt Formation: Militias Threaten Lebanon, Region Stability
Naharnet/U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon warned on Wednesday that the presence of "militias" in Lebanon continues to threaten security in the country as well as the region, urging a formal border delineation with Syria. "The delineation of the Syrian-Lebanese border ... has not yet taken place," read Ban's report on the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1559, which was adopted in 2004 and calls for "the disbanding and disarmament" of all factions in Lebanon. "More importantly, the existence and activities of Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias continue to pose a threat to the stability of the country and the region," the report added. The U.N. secretary general said in the report he was concerned by recent security incidents in Lebanon, including the explosion last month of a small bomb in a church in the eastern town of Zahle. "These occurrences confirm yet again the possession of lethal weapons by non-state actors," he said. Hizbullah argues that its powerful arsenal of weapons is necessary to deter Israel. The armed party has repeatedly warned Lebanese leaders that its arms are not open to discussion.
Hizbullah fought a month-long war with Israel in 2006 during which it fired more than 4,000 rockets on the Jewish state. Israel estimates that Hizbullah has since stockpiled more than 40,000 rockets, some of which could reach major Israeli population centers. Palestinian factions inside refugee camps across the country, which are off-limits to the Lebanese army, are also armed. Ban said U.N. Security Council member states had provided information on weapons-smuggling across Lebanon's porous northern border with Syria, which, along with Iran, is a major backer of Hizbullah. The U.N. could not independently verify the reports. Ban said Lebanon's failure to delineate a formal border with Syria was largely due to the governmental and budgetary deadlock in Lebanon. "Government officials in Lebanon have acknowledged the porous nature of the border and the possibility that arms smuggling occurs and over the past three years, and have taken limited steps to confront the issue," he said. In a copy of Ban's report obtained by Lebanon's MTV, the U.N. chief calls on Prime Minister-designate Najib Miqati to speed up the cabinet formation process and respect Lebanon's international obligations. Ban also calls on Lebanon's rival political factions to return to the national dialogue table, according to MTV. Against the backdrop of the current deterioration in Lebanon over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and illegal weapons, the TV network added, Ban also calls on the Lebanese government to protect its citizens and urges the international community to continue supporting the Lebanese army. The Netherlands-based court is tasked with investigating the 2005 assassination of ex-premier Rafik Hariri and is widely expected to indict Hizbullah figures in the killing.(AFP-naharnet) Beirut, 20 Apr 11, 22:43

Geagea Says Kidnapping of Foreigners Sign that 'Illegitimate Arms' Hinder State Establishment
Naharnet/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea stressed on Thursday that the abduction of the seven Estonian tourists is a clear sign that "illegitimate arms" are hindering the establishment of a real state.In remarks to a delegation of students from the Lebanese University, Geagea wondered whether it was natural for foreigners to be kidnapped in the country 21 years after the end of the civil war. "Isn't this move a clear sign that an actual state is non-existent in Lebanon?" he asked. "Doesn't this provide further proof from among a series of evidence that inform us every day that the presence of illegitimate weapons and decisions outside the control of the state are hindering the establishment of a real state?" he wondered. Geagea also slammed illegal construction on state property in several regions, saying it wasn't a coincidence that such an activity was taking place in areas where there is an "illegitimate authority," in reference to Hizbullah. The LF leader advised the students not to emigrate and urged those planning to work abroad to return to their home country after a few years and make investments in Lebanon and help in the society's development. Geagea reiterated that Caretaker Foreign Minister Ali al-Shami should "give the appropriate instructions to involved institutions at his ministry to continue with the necessary preparations that allow non-resident Lebanese to vote." "This demand is the legitimate right of Lebanese expatriates and it is the duty of the Lebanese state to guarantee ways to exercise it," he said. Beirut, 21 Apr 11, 13:38

ISF 'Thoroughly Examines' Video of 7 Estonians, Rifi Doubts Abductors are after Ransom
Naharnet/Internal Security Forces chief Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi said the ISF was "thoroughly examining" the online video posted on YouTube in which seven Estonian tourists, who were kidnapped in the Bekaa valley on March 23, pleaded for help. Rifi told As Safir daily in remarks published Thursday that the ISF was studying how the content of the video could help in the investigation. A security source believed that the video was posted by a professional person to prevent police from tracking its source. The video, which was later removed, runs one minute and 47 seconds and shows each of seven men in sportswear, begging for help in English. "We are turning to you, prime minister of Lebanon Saad Hariri, the King of Saudi Arabia King Abdullah, the King of Jordan King Abdullah, the President of France Mr. Sarkozy, please do anything to help us to get back home," said one of the seven. Estonia's foreign ministry confirmed that "several institutions are dealing now with the question of finding out from where the video was posted onto the Internet." A previously unheard of group, Haraket al-Nahda Wal-Islah (Movement for Renewal and Reform), has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping and demanded an unspecified ransom to free the seven Estonians. But Rifi told As Safir that the Estonians did not specify any ransom in their video. Asked why they pleaded for help from different heads of state, the ISF chief said he believed that the demand for ransom was aimed at concealing the real demand of the kidnappers. "Security agencies are taking all possibilities into consideration," he said. He reiterated that half of the abductors were in custody while the remaining half was still at large. On April 11, a police intelligence officer and a main suspect in the kidnapping were killed in a shootout in the Bekaa town of Majdal Anjar. Unconfirmed reports had said that the Estonians may have been moved across the porous border to Syria. But Rifi said there was no conclusive evidence on whether the seven Estonians were still in Lebanon or not. Beirut, 21 Apr 11, 08:47

Report: Israel Fears Kidnap Plots by Hizbullah Abroad
Naharnet/Several warnings received by Israeli security agencies indicate that Hizbullah and Hamas will seek to abduct Israelis vacationing in the Mediterranean area, Haaretz daily reported on Thursday. The warnings prompted the Counter-Terrorism Bureau to issue a travel alert on April 10, before the week-long Jewish Passover holiday, which began on Monday, the Israeli newspaper said. The Bureau advised Israelis that if they choose to travel despite the warning, they should stay away from sites with a high concentration of Israeli tourists and should reject unusually tempting business offers while abroad. Haaretz said that Hizbullah is seeking to avenge the February 2008 assassination in Damascus of the party's military commander, Imad Mughniyeh. Hizbullah has blamed Israel for the killing. "Since his murder, Hizbullah has made approximately 10 attempts to carry out a revenge attack on Israeli targets abroad, but failed in its efforts to abduct Israelis and to set off car bombs near the Israeli embassy in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku," the daily added. Beirut, 21 Apr 11, 07:46

AMAL, Hizbullah to Address Illegal Construction as 2 People Killed in Clash over Violations in Tyre
Naharnet/Two people were killed and others wounded in a clash with armed forces as the latter were thwarting illegal construction in the southern city of Tyre.
The National News Agency reported on Thursday that residents prevented the security forces from performing their duty, which led them to open fire, killing a Palestinian Wissam al-Tawil and Lebanese Ali Nasser. The residents retaliated by setting an ISF vehicle on fire and blocking the road with burning tires. The ISF issued a statement later on Thursday clarifying the morning's clashes, explaining that as an ISF force, backed by the Lebanese army, was heading to thwart a construction violation in Tyre, it was obstructed by a large number of youths who pelted them with rocks. Gunshots were also fired at the security forces from nearby residential neighborhoods, forcing them to retaliate by firing into the air into order to intimidate the protestors. Four people were injured as a result and they were later transported to hospital where two of them passed away. The protestors also burned three military vehicles, said the statement. It announced that a joint committee from the army and ISF supervised by the military judiciary was formed to investigate the incident.
LBC reported that another clash broke out between security forces and residents in the Ouzai area, adding that residents have surrounded an ISF vehicle.
Journalists on the scene were also attacked and accused of incitement by the residents who also surrounded them as the security forces attempted to free them.
Caretaker Transportation and Public Works Minister Ghazi Aridi contacted President Michel Suleiman, Speaker Nabih Berri, caretaker Interior Minister Ziad Baroud, and the Hizbullah leadership, urging them to put an end to public property violations, especially those near Beirut's international airport. He demanded that strict measures be taken against all violators.
NNA later reported that a meeting was held between ISF officials and party and municipal figures at the Tyre military barracks in order to study ways to address this morning's clash.
They agreed to form a committee to inspect the death of the two residents. Meanwhile, AMAL and Hizbullah officials and the head of the Dahiyeh municipalities Mohammed al-Khansa held a meeting on Wednesday to address random construction in Beirut's southern suburbs. They condemned in a statement all construction violations, especially illegal construction on public property, most notably in the areas surrounding the airport, which they said may harm public interests. They added that all violators should be brought to justice.
Furthermore, the gatherers called on the security forces to thwart violations through legal means, urging them to remove any violation as soon as it is discovered.
"The southern suburbs have and will always be open to official institutions, especially security ones, to carry out their duties, implement the law, and protect national interests," they stressed.
Security forces earlier this month launched a crackdown on illegally-constructed buildings on public lands, particularly in Hizbullah-controlled areas in the south of Beirut and in southern Lebanon. On Wednesday, a number of women and youths prevented security forces from stopping a construction violation on public property in the Tyre province, by blocking the road with metal barriers. As the security forces approached, the residents unleashed bees upon them from hives in their possession, forcing them to retreat without thwarting the violation.
On Tuesday, an ISF patrol was pelted with rocks by residents in Tyre as it was attempting to stop another violation. Six policemen were injured Monday when they were attacked by residents of a southern suburb of Beirut as their patrol tried to vacate illegal houses in area. Lebanon's pro-Western political alliance, led by Saudi-backed caretaker premier Saad Hariri, has hinted that the Iranian-backed Hizbullah had consciously turned a blind eye on the constructions. Hizbullah has defended itself against the charges and urged officials to "severely punish" such violations.(naharnet-AFP) Beirut, 21 Apr 11, 10:31

Qahwaji: We Seek to Prevent Lebanon from Becoming Center to Create Unrest in Any Arab State
Naharnet/Army Commander General Jean Qahwaji noted on Thursday that the ongoing political tensions in Lebanon will not affect the army's performance, which distances itself from the political and sectarian divisions in the country. He stressed the military institution's role during "the sensitive phase the country is going through, especially regarding maintaining the peace and defending its southern border from Israeli attacks." "It is also keen on preventing Lebanon from becoming a center for targeting any of the Arab countries," he added. Qahwaji emphasized that external factors will not be employed in order to drag Lebanon into strife like what happened in 1975 at the start of the Lebanese Civil War. "The military institution's unity is the one guarantee for the country's stability," he said. Beirut, 21 Apr 11, 17:13

Search Procedures at Northern Border Intensified to Thwart Smuggling
Naharnet/Lebanese army and Internal Security Forces patrols intensified search procedures at Lebanon's border with Syria in Akkar in an effort to thwart smuggling, reported the National News Agency on Thursday. Witnesses informed NNA that the procedures were intensified along the al-Kabir River where Syrian border guards opened fire at individuals, who turned out to be smuggling gas across the border. The Lebanese army and ISF patrols arrested one individual after conducting searches throughout Wednesday night and early morning on Thursday.
The witnesses added that the Syrian forces have also intensified their searches on their side of the border. Beirut, 21 Apr 11, 13:10

Mustaqbal Denies Link to Tripoli Rally as Hizb ut-Tahrir Remains Adamant on Holding Demo
Naharnet/Al-Mustaqbal movement denied on Thursday that it was involved in calls to hold a demonstration in support of the Syrian people in the northern port city of Tripoli. The movement said in a statement that some media outlets and politicians were seeking to accuse al-Mustaqbal of involvement in the invitations for a demonstration against Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime on Friday. "Al-Mustaqbal movement confirms that it has nothing to do" with such invitations, said the statement. It urged its supporters to abide by the instructions of Caretaker Premier Saad Hariri and commit to internal stability. Al-Mustaqbal's statement came after the north Lebanon branch of the national security council banned rallies for or against Syria's regime. But Pan-Islamic group Hizb ut-Tahrir insisted it would go ahead with its demonstration in support of Syrian protesters. "We have decided not to approve any requests for demonstrations as they fail to meet legal conditions," the council said. "The local branch of the security council has informed us that our gathering this Friday should take place inside an assembly hall and not in the street," Hizb ut-Tahrir's spokesman Ahmad Kasas told Agence France Presse on Wednesday. "But our decision has been made and we will not give in." On Thursday, Kasas said during a press conference that the demonstration had originally been planned under the slogan "In support of the Syria protests and against the Syrian regime."
"Today, we have added the slogan 'Against the regime of oppression in Lebanon,' a regime which has arrested 16 activists of our party and beaten some of them," he said.
He vowed to carry through with the rally, saying "Our protest will be held tomorrow at Nour Square" in Tripoli. "We will walk together from Mansour mosque to the square without forming any other gatherings in the streets of Tripoli, in order to abide by the instructions of the security council." Sixteen members of the party were arrested earlier this week for posting leaflets calling for protests, security sources said. Five of them are from Tripoli, two from Nahr al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp and the remaining nine from Beirut and the southern port city of Sidon, said As Safir daily. The newspaper added that the army and Internal Security Forces took extra measures in Tripoli and its entrances to prevent incidents and the rally from taking place.(Naharnet-AFP) Beirut, 21 Apr 11, 10:58

Preliminary Deal on Lineup Brings Hope of Cabinet Formation after Holidays
Naharnet/A preliminary agreement has been reached between the different parties of the March 8 forces amid hopes that more efforts would be exerted in the coming days despite Premier-designate Najib Miqati's private visit to London. Pan-Arab daily al-Hayat quoted March 8 leaders as saying in remarks published Thursday that consultations between Miqati and Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun through the mediation of Hizbullah led to a "semi-deal." Aoun, who has been bickering with President Michel Suleiman over the interior ministry, has agreed to get along with his allies the Marada movement and the Tashnag party 10 ministries, including one state minister, the sources said. They told al-Hayat that Aoun hasn't so far delivered Hizbullah the names of the ministers proposed by his Change and Reform bloc, saying he is conditioning agreement on distribution of shares before naming the ministers. As for the interior ministry, agreement has been reached not to give the portfolio to Caretaker Interior Minister Ziad Baroud, who is backed by Suleiman, in return for not granting the ministry to an FPM official, the sources said. However, high-ranking political sources told An Nahar newspaper that the deal consists of either keeping both Baroud and Caretaker Energy Minister Jebran Bassil, who is an FPM official, in the cabinet or providing them with a safe exit. They said the interior ministry portfolio continued to be the main obstacle in the cabinet formation process. Despite reports about the preliminary deal, the government would witness light only after the Easter holidays. Beirut, 21 Apr 11, 10:55

Report: Israel Pressured U.S., France into Halting Military Assistance to Lebanon
Naharnet/Israel confirmed that both the U.S. and France suspended deals that are meant to provide assistance to the Lebanese military, over fears that the munitions would fall into the hands of Hizbullah if it controlled the new government, Israeli newspaper Maariv reported. "It took a lot of effort to convince Washington� we made it clear that in a scenario where Hizbullah controls the Lebanese government, the arms will endanger Israel," a high-rank Israeli official told the daily. Maariv reported that a similar decision was taken by the French authorities. "France has frozen an advanced arms deal, which was meant to support the Lebanese military with 'HOT' and anti-tank missiles." The shipments to the Lebanese army included aircrafts capable of carrying radar missiles, patrol boats, helicopters and sniper rifles, the report said. The newspaper remarked that the U.S. Department of Defense is also reconsidering military deals with the Gulf states including Saudi Arabia because of the latest developments and instability in the Arab world. Beirut, 21 Apr 11, 10:17

Gathering Clouds for Syria's Assad
By: Mohamad Bazzi, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies
April 18, 2011
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is facing the most serious challenge to the Ba'athist regime since the 1980s. Assad's security forces have been unable to quell a wave of protests that began last month in the southern town of Deraa and have since spread across the country. On April 15, Syria witnessed the largest demonstrations yet, as tens of thousands of protesters marched from several suburbs into central Damascus.
Assad initially responded to the country's protests with a violent crackdown and token concessions--such as appointing a new cabinet--that failed to appease Syrians seeking dramatic change after forty-one years of autocratic rule by the Assad family. On April 16, Assad promised to lift the state of emergency in place since 1963 that grants wide authority to the security forces. But protests erupted again the next day, as thousands took to the streets across Syria chanting: "The people want the overthrow of Bashar!"
Assad enjoys greater popular support than other Middle Eastern rulers ousted by recent uprisings, such as Tunisian leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak. But he is squandering this political capital as his crackdown intensifies and he continues to ignore the need for fundamental change.
In his April 16 address, Assad tried to strike a conciliatory tone after an earlier speech in which he dismissed pro-democracy activists as "dupes" or saboteurs in a plot hatched by "foreign agents" to weaken Syria. Aside from his pledge to repeal the emergency law within days, he vowed to fight corruption, reduce unemployment, and to "study" new laws that would allow the formation of political parties and guarantee the right to peaceful assembly. But repealing the emergency law would do little to restrict the power of various security agencies because Syria has other laws that guarantee members of the secret police immunity for virtually any crime committed in the line of duty.
Assad also warned that these concessions would be followed by a crackdown. Once these changes are in place, he said, "there will no longer be a need to organize demonstrations in Syria." He added ominously that the government would not "tolerate any act of sabotage."
These measures did not appease the protestors because Assad failed to loosen the Ba'ath Party's monopoly on power. In refusing to make substantial concessions, Assad is relying on a tactic he learned from his father: The Syrian regime does not respond to pressure, whether external or internal, and this principle has served it well in times of crisis. While this approach worked for Hafez Assad during the three decades he ruled Syria, it is unlikely to succeed over the long term for his son, as he confronts a different and unprecedented type of pressure rooted in deep popular grievances.
[M]any secular Sunnis, especially in Damascus, are still on the sidelines. If these Sunnis take to the streets in sustained, large-scale protests, then Assad's government will face a grave danger.
The unrest shows little sign of letting up. Over the past week, protests spread to several coastal towns, Damascus, and Aleppo--one of Syria's largest cities that was once a center of resistance to the Ba'ath Party. Human rights activists estimate that more than two hundred demonstrators have been killed and hundreds arrested since protests began in Deraa, a Sunni town near the border with Jordan that has suffered from economic neglect by the central government.
It is especially troublesome for Assad that the unrest started in Sunni areas that traditionally supported the Ba'ath Party and have provided recruits for the Syrian military. On March 6, the police arrested fifteen teenagers who had scrawled anti-government graffiti on several buildings in Deraa. The arrests set off large demonstrations, which led to clashes with security forces and dozens of casualties. Assad and his advisers bungled the initial response: The president failed to offer condolences to the families of those killed or to visit the town, setting off a new round of protests that spread to other areas. As the crackdown intensified, demonstrators also honed their rhetoric from demands for "freedom" and "dignity"--and an end to abuses by the security forces--to calls for Assad's overthrow.
Assad's main goal is to preserve the rule of his Alawite regime in a Sunni-dominated country. (The Alawites, who make up about 12 percent of Syria's population, are an offshoot sect of Shiite Islam.) Unlike the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, it is unlikely that the Syrian military leadership would abandon Assad. Most of the country's generals and top security officials are Alawite, and their fortunes are tied to Assad's survival. Syria is also home to Christian, Druze, and Shiite minorities--about 15 percent of the population--and they tend to support the Alawite regime. Along with many secular Sunnis, these minorities look to Assad as a source of stability, and they fear that his fall could precipitate a civil war.
The Ba'athist regime has a history of using extreme violence to suppress opposition. In 1982, as the Muslim Brotherhood carried out attacks against military and civilian targets in several cities, Hafez Assad dispatched troops to the city of Hama to put down an Islamist uprising. Assad's forces leveled sections of the city, killing an estimated twenty thousand people. Since then, membership in the Muslim Brotherhood has been punishable by death.
While the current wave of protests has been partly inspired by Sunni preachers in some cities and towns, Syria is not facing another Islamist uprising. Like other rebellions in the Arab world, the largest protests have taken place after Friday prayers. But many secular Sunnis, especially in Damascus, are still on the sidelines. If these Sunnis take to the streets in sustained, large-scale protests, then Assad's government will face a grave danger.
For an oil-poor country that has little economic clout, the Syrian regime derives its power from its strategic position and carefully nurtured alliances. Syria has played the role of a regional spoiler and Arab nationalist standard-bearer since 1970, when Hafez Assad rose to power in a military coup. He perfected the art of shifting alliances, stirring up trouble in neighboring countries, and keeping his enemies mired in costly battles.
When Hafez died in 2000 and was succeeded by Bashar, many believed the soft-spoken ophthalmologist could never balance the regional cards as masterfully as his father. But it is clear that the younger Assad has grown comfortably into the role of a strongman who must adapt to shifting Middle East realities.
Assad did not have much time to master regional dynamics before he confronted a serious external challenge. After the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Bush administration turned its attention to Damascus as another candidate for "regime change." Syria meddled in Iraq, nurtured Palestinian militants opposed to peace with Israel, and dominated its smaller neighbor, Lebanon.
By 2009, Assad had waited out the Bush administration and was maneuvering himself out of international isolation. At the same time that he was reaching out to Saudi Arabia and other Arab powers, Assad maintained his relationship with Iran and its allies in the region: Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi Shiite factions. These moves are a classic example of the statecraft practiced by Hafez Assad.
The younger Assad has been deft at dealing with external pressure on Syria, applying the lessons of his father's foreign policy. But today, he cannot hunker down and wait for the storm of protests to pass. To avoid considerable bloodshed, Assad must move beyond the survival methods and political instincts of his father.
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West-backed Libyan rebels face Qaddafi who is aided by China, East Europe
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 21, 2011, 1
Both of Libya's fighting camps are taking delivery of a surging influx of weapons shipments and military personnel � each hoping to use the extra aid for breaking the military standoff in its own favor, debkafile's military sources report. The British, French and Italian military officers bound for rebel headquarters in Benghazi are part of a package that includes arms and military equipment from the US, Britain, France, Italy and Qatar.
On the other side of the Libyan divide, China, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Serbia are keeping the pro-Qaddafi camp's arsenals stocked with new hardware along with combat personnel from Eastern Europe and the former Yugoslavia.
Building up in Libya is a confrontation that recalls the 1999 war in Yugoslavia (Serbia today) when NATO's four-month Operation Noble Anvil hammered Yugoslav forces to force their retreat from Kosovo. The Serbs were backed then by clandestine Chinese-Russian support in tactical advice, intelligence, fighting men and arms.
Just like 12 years ago, our military sources report that from mid-March, hundreds of "volunteers" - professional soldiers ranking from colonel down to corporal - have joined the army loyal to Qaddafi. Calling themselves "nationalists" operating in paramilitary organizations without the knowledge of their governments, these foreigners claim they have come "to repulse the Western-Muslim onslaught on Qaddafi's regime."
Of course, they are handsomely paid from Muammar Qaddafi's plentiful war chest.
One group says it is in Libya for unfinished business with the West, especially the United States, for their role in the Bosnia and Kosovo conflicts.
China is helping him with arms, mostly through African neighbors, and intelligence on NATO strikes in order to limit the damage they inflict (a service like that performed for Serbia in the 1990s). Beijing thinks it has a stake in helping the Libyan ruler after being informed that the Obama administration seeks to sever Chinese-Libyan oil ties before Beijing sinks tens of billions of dollars in tranforming Libya into its primary oil and gas supplier on the African continent.
The NATO bombardment of a large ammunition dump near Tripoli on April 14 aimed at destroying the latest Chinese arms shipments. However, debkafile's military sources point to four major difficulties still confronting the next, intensified, round of Western coalition operations in Libya:
1. Pushing Qaddafi too hard could split NATO between West and East European members;
2. The alliance is short of fighter-bombers for blasting the arms convoys destined for government forces in western Libya, and lacks the precision bombs and missiles for these attacks. These shortages have forced NATO to limit its air strikes for now.
3. It is not clear that UN Security Council resolutions provide a mandate for this kind of attack. The Russians criticize the Western alliance almost daily for exceeding its mandate.
4. In view of this criticism, Washington, London, Paris and Rome are careful to label their war aid to Libyan rebels as "non-lethal military aid" and the military personnel helping them "military advisers" � raising memories of the euphemisms used in previous wars.
The trouble is that all the additional military assistance the West is laying on is barely enough, say debkafile's military experts, to maintain the current stalemate against the Qaddafi regime's boosted capabilities - certainly not sufficient to tip the scales of the war.
Qaddafi holds one major advantage: His army can absorb foreign assistance without delay and almost seamlessly, whereas Western aid drops into a pit of uncertainty with regard to the rebel groups and their chiefs. The military advisers arriving in Benghazi first need to guide the opposition's steps in fighting Qaddafi's forces, then form the rebels into military units and teach them how to use the weapons they are receiving.
It could take months for regular rebel units to take shape under the direction of British, French and Italian military personnel who, too, are not necessarily working in harness.