LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِApril 13/2011

Biblical Event Of The Day
Luke 13/18-21: " He said, “What is the Kingdom of God like? To what shall I compare it? 13:19 It is like a grain of mustard seed, which a man took, and put in his own garden. It grew, and became a large tree, and the birds of the sky lodged in its branches.” 13:20 Again he said, “To what shall I compare the Kingdom of God? 13:21 It is like yeast, which a woman took and hid in three measures of flour, until it was all leavened.”

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Can the US block Iran's drive for regional hegemony?By: DAN MERIDOR/April 12/11

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for April 12/11
Al-Rahi Meets Vatican Foreign Minister and Cardinal Sandri, Reception Scheduled in his Honor/Naharnet
Bahrain Expels More Lebanese, No Info on Similar Measures in other GCC Countries/Naharnet
Syrian human rights watchdog: Death toll in protests reaches 200/Reuters
Chamoun: Hizbullah Never Represented our Politics as it Wants to Establish Iranian State in Lebanon/Naharnet
Syria's Banias Besieged, Nearby Village Raked with Gunfire amid Call for New Demos/Naharnet
Saudi Arabia: Second Fukushima if Iranian Bushehr activated in May/DEBKAfile
Report: Egypt's Mubarak hospitalized in Red Sea resort/AP
Iran's IRGC 'now occupies Syria'; Civilians killed in protests/World Tribune
Syrian opposition says 200 killed in protests/Reuters
Turkey police detain 40 suspected members of Al-Qaida and Islamist militant group/Haaretz
Syria blocked injured from medical care, group says/CNN
Student killed after Syria forces attack Damascus University protest/Haaretz
Rights group: Scores of anti-government activists arrested in Syria/CNN
London, Rome condemn Syria crackdown/AFP
In Iran, dozens of students attack Saudi embassy with firebombs/WFP
Next 48 hours crucial for Lebanon's Cabinet formation/Daily Star
New Lebanese cabinet expected to be announced this week/J.Post
Williams Meets Hariri, Renews Appeal for 'Immediate Release' of Estonians/Naharnet
May Chidiac Lectures in Washington on Lebanese Political Situation, Events in Syria, Region/Naharnet
Berri Threatens to Expose 'Another Kind' of WikiLeaks/Naharnet
Geagea: Each Individual is Ready to Abuse the State to Fulfill his Party's Goals/Naharnet
Haitham Joumaa: Abidjan Airport is Secure and Air Traffic Has Returned to Normal/Naharnet
Iraqi Ambassador Slams al-Akhbar Daily's Alleged Meddling in Iraq's Affairs/Naharnet
2 People Killed in Car Accident in Jal el-Dib, One Injured in Shooting in Dekwaneh/Naharnet
Iran-Saudi Cold War Sparked Backlash in Lebanon/Naharnet
Six Years On, No Solution for Missing Lebanese/Naharnet
Jumblat Questions Purpose of Launching Debate with Iran: Let us Instead Focus on Ending Internal Tensions/Naharnet
Phalange: One-Sided and Technocratic Governments Cannot be Formed Given Regional Developments/Naharnet
Williams Meets Baroud, Hopes New Government Will be Formed in a Few Weeks' Time/Naharnet
On Civil War Anniversary, Suleiman Slams Division of Shares and Urges Dialogue on Controversial Issues/Naharnet
Cabinet Discussions Reportedly Make Progress as FPM Dismisses Atmosphere of Optimism/Naharnet
Aoun: I Have No Demands Concerning New Cabinet, I Am Only Defending Constitution and National Charter/Naharnet

UN rights chief calls on Syria to halt force on protestors
April 12, 2011 ghts chief on Tuesday called on Syrian authorities to halt the excessive use of force on peaceful protestors, particularly the use of live fire. "The High Commissioner has emphasized to the Syrian authorities that the use of force against peaceful protestors has not quelled discontent anywhere in the region and to take immediate action to stop the excessive use of force, particularly the use of live ammunition against peaceful protestors," said Ravina Shamdasani, spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. The spokesperson also highlighted a reported "intensification of killings of protestors" by Syrian security forces, mass arrests of activists and harassment of journalists, saying that such action had to stop."A number of journalists, international and Syrian, as well as Syrian bloggers have reportedly been arrested and TV signals suspended of at least one private TV station," said Shamdasani. "Syrian authorities must immediately release journalists detained for doing their jobs and to respect the right to freedom of expression," she added. A coalition of six Syrian human rights groups has issued a statement accusing the Syrian authorities of carrying out "arbitrary arrests" over the past few days, particularly in the protest hub of Daraa, south of the capital.-AFP/NOW Lebanon

On Civil War Anniversary, Suleiman Slams Division of Shares and Urges Dialogue on Controversial Issues
Naharnet/resident Michel Suleiman urged the country's politicians to fully implement the Taef Accord lamenting that the constitution was transformed into a mechanism of division of shares.
"We haven't yet been able to form a modern state that protects itself and watches over the interests of its citizens," Suleiman told An Nahar daily in remarks published Tuesday on the eve of the 36th anniversary of the Lebanese civil war. He regretted that the National Accord reached as part of the Taef Agreement was not fully implemented. "We deliberately distorted the constitutional concepts and transformed them into means of division of shares." "Political parties should continue to implement the Taef Accord with all its articles and adopt dialogue as the only means to discuss controversial issues," Suleiman added. The president told An Nahar that politicians should work on solving constitutional problems after Lebanon became "solely responsible for its security, policies and economy without any assistance or interference by a foreign side." Suleiman reminded politicians that they have a responsibility in implementing the coexistence article in the constitution, stressing that this article unlike what some people think that it is aimed at dividing shares among sects, it urges officials to implement laws and modernize them to form a modern state. Asked by An Nahar about the formation of the government, Suleiman said: "We should seek to avoid gaps and not to transform the democracy that we enjoy into vacuum and chaos." "That's why we should make an immediate initiative to form the cabinet and … comply with the constitution," he added. Beirut, 12 Apr 11, 09:21

Al-Rahi Meets Vatican Foreign Minister and Cardinal Sandri, Reception Scheduled in his Honor
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi held talks Monday night with the Vatican Foreign Minister Dominique Mamberti as part of his trip to the European country, which started on April 11. On Tuesday, the patriarch met with Prefect of the Congregation for the Oriental Churches, Cardinal Leonardo Sandri. Later in the day, a reception will be held in al-Rahi's honor by Lebanon's Ambassador to the Vatican, George Khoury, during which he is also scheduled to meet with Lebanese expatriates residing in Italy. The patriarch is set to meet with Pope Benedict XVI on Thursday.He is also scheduled to celebrate mass at St. Peter's Basilica during which he will express gratitude to the pope for his confidence. Al-Rahi will return to Beirut at the end of the week. Beirut, 12 Apr 11, 12:45

Geagea: Each Individual is Ready to Abuse the State to Fulfill his Party's Goals
Naharnet/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea noted on Tuesday that a new Lebanese government will not bolster the Lebanese state, but it will instead support the March 8 camp "that likes to call itself a Resistance." He said: "We have not recognized it as a Resistance as no law has been approved in parliament to officially call it so." The other camp believes that the state answers to it, he added. "Each one of us has a free opinion towards a party and we don't have any obligations except towards the Lebanese state's constitutional institutions," he stressed. "How are we supposed to build a state if each individual only takes into account his party's interests?" Geagea asked. Addressing Hizbullah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's recent statements on the March 14 camp and the WikiLeaks cables, he said: "People are free to express their opinions." "Why is the other camp relying on WikiLeaks while we have been announcing our opinions in the open? We have been demanding on a daily basis the end of the possession of arms outside the state's authority," he stressed. Beirut, 12 Apr 11, 17:53

Williams Meets Hariri, Renews Appeal for 'Immediate Release' of Estonians
Naharnet/Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri held talks Tuesday at the Center House with U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams, in the presence of advisor Mohammed Shatah. Talks tackled "the situation in Lebanon and also the dramatic developments in the broader Arab region," said Williams after the meeting. "We agreed on the need to preserve Lebanon's security and stability at all costs. In this regard, we touched on the events last week in Roumieh prison, as well as on the abduction of the seven Estonian nationals in the Bekaa Valley," Williams added. "Hariri updated me on the efforts of the government under his leadership to address these issues," the U.N. official said. He renewed his appeal for "the immediate release of the Estonian citizens." Hariri and Williams also discussed the situation in Ivory Coast and the plight of thousands of Lebanese who remain in that country. "I assured the Prime Minister that the United Nations is doing all it can to ensure stability in Côte d'Ivoire and to help those Lebanese who need the U.N.'s assistance," Williams noted. Beirut, 12 Apr 11, 19:47

Syria's Banias Besieged, Nearby Village Raked with Gunfire amid Call for New Demos
Naharnet/Syrian security forces locked down the protest flashpoint town of Banias and raked the nearby village of Baida with gunfire on Tuesday, witnesses told Agence France Presse by telephone. "Security forces and armed men are firing machine guns indiscriminately at the village," a witness said. "The gunfire against Baida is intense like the rain. At least one person was injured," another witness told AFP. The army kept a stranglehold on the coastal town of Banias, 280 kilometers north of Damascus, where residents said they faced a bread shortage.
"Security forces and the army continue to assault Banias and we know what they are preparing for us," said Anas al-Shuhri, one of the leaders of anti-regime protesters.
"There is a shortage of bread in the city, electricity is cut and the majority of phone lines are too," he added. Several residents of the coastal town, northwest of Damascus, confirmed al-Shuhri's testimony, particularly the bread shortage. Abdul Basset, an electrician, told AFP the situation was "extremely bad".
"The army was redeployed outside the city and the security forces and shabbiha (regime agents) conducted a number of arrests. The town is dead, shops are closed," he said.
"Banias is surrounded by tanks, no one can get in or out. It is like a prison," said Yasser, a shopkeeper. "We cannot get bread anymore in Banias. Bread supplies were brought from (the city of) Tartus but that is not enough. The petrol stations are also closed," he added. Yasser said: "Security forces were responsible for killing soldiers in Banias because they had refused to attack the city," an account which differed sharply from the official version of events. Preacher Sheikh Mohammed said: "Several families evacuated women and children (to the outskirts of the town), because we are in the Ras al-Nabee neighborhood which was targeted by gunfire from al-Quz neighborhood. "The bakers of the town do not have enough bread," he added.
The army has encircled Banias since Sunday, when regime agents opened fired on residents, particularly those in mosques, killing four people and wounding 17, according to witnesses.
The official Sana news agency had said nine soldiers, including two officers were killed on Sunday when their patrol was ambushed outside the coastal town.
Meanwhile, a Facebook group called for fresh protests in Syria on Tuesday to show "loyalty with the martyrs, wounded and prisoners" after a bloody weekend crackdown on anti-regime demonstrators. "Today, March 12, is the day of loyalty towards the martyrs, wounded and prisoners, who are the heroes of the free youth revolution," said the organizers on Facebook page the Syrian Revolution 2011, which has played a key role in mobilizing recent protests. "We will shout slogans despite our wounds and hold peaceful sit-ins until we obtain our freedom," the group said. "We will not stop, nor backtrack. Our cause is clear. It is a revolution by the people for the people and the demands are clear. Our path is peaceful and the objective is freedom." Faced with unrelenting protests and a rising death toll, Syrian authorities have adopted a sharper tone in recent days, blaming the violence on "troublemakers" trying to sow discord. The interior ministry on April 9 warned he would deal harshly with "armed groups" who "shoot indiscriminately" on "both demonstrators and security forces". State media on Tuesday slammed "those sowing trouble, disorder and discord when Syria has already begun to address the problems and pave the road for change and reform".
The semi-official al-Watan newspaper said youth groups had appealed to the president, as commander in chief of the army, "to call on the army's reserves to pursue and arrest those who dare point their weapons on citizens and soldiers". Syrian students on Monday staged a rally, rare for Damascus, to express solidarity with protesters who were killed in a bloody weekend crackdown that left at least 30 civilians dead. Protests erupted in Syria on March 15 calling for the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, who has been in power since 2000, to introduce sweeping political reforms.(AFP) Beirut, 12 Apr 11, 17:24

Bahrain Expels More Lebanese, No Info on Similar Measures in other GCC Countries
Naharnet/Bahrain expelled 5 more Lebanese citizens on Monday, As Safir newspaper said, raising the total number of those asked to leave the kingdom to 24. But Lebanon's Ambassador to Manama, Aziz al-Qazzi, told LBCI TV network on Tuesday that only 19 Lebanese have so far been expelled from Bahrain without any justification. "We have no confirmation whether similar measures have been taken in the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," he said. Al-Qazzi told LBC that he was exerting efforts to prevent more expulsions and trying to urge the Bahraini authorities to limit entry hardship to the Lebanese. A foreign ministry source told As Safir that at least 14 of those expelled from Bahrain are Shiites. Among them are women. The newspaper said that Caretaker Foreign Minister Ali al-Shami will contact his Bahraini counterpart on Tuesday to inquire about the reasons behind the expulsions. Some of those expelled told As Safir that they were summoned by the Bahraini interior ministry's immigration bureau and were asked to sign a pledge to leave the country within 48 hours. The officials didn't give any reason for their decision, they said. The news came after Bahrain's foreign minister accused Hizbullah of backing Shiite protesters against the Sunni monarchy. Beirut, 12 Apr 11, 11:19

Syrian human rights watchdog: Death toll in protests reaches 200
The Damascus Declaration group implores the Arab League to sanction the Syrian government; Human Rights Watch reports security forces prevented wounded protesters from reaching hospitals./Naharnet
By Reuters/Israel news
Syria's main human rights movement has said the death toll from less than a month of protests has reached 200 and called on the Arab League to impose sanctions on the ruling hierarchy.
"Syria's uprising is screaming with 200 martyrs, hundreds of injured and a similar number of arrests," the Damascus Declaration group said in a letter sent on Monday to the secretary general of the Arab League. Anti-Syrian government protester, displays Arabic words on his hands, reading 'Yes for freedom, no to violence' in Damascus, March 25, 2011.
The letter continued, saying "the regime unleashes its forcers to besiege cities and terrorize civilians, while protesters across Syria thunder with the same chant 'peaceful peaceful'."
The group implored the Arab league to "impose political, diplomatic and economic sanctions on the Syrian regime, which continues to be the faithful guardian of Hafez al-Assad's legacy," the letter said, referring to the iron-fisted rule of President Hafez Assad, father of current President Bashar. Bashar, facing unprecedented protests against his 11-year-old rule, has responded with a synthesis of force -- his security forces have fired at unarmed protesters, according to witnesses -- and vague promises to relax bans on freedoms, such as replacing emergency law with anti-terrorism law. The protests, which erupted in the southern city of Deraa last month before spreading, have demanded freedom of expression and assembly and an end to corruption. The authorities have blamed violence on armed gangs and "infiltrators", saying that soldiers and police also have been killed. "President Assad has been only giving promises for the last 11 years. Instead of solutions he talks, as the regime usually does, about an outside conspiracy," the letter said. The Damascus declaration is named for a document signed in 2005 by prominent civic, Islamist and liberal leaders calling for the end of 41 years of Assad family rule and its replacement with a democratic system.
The document demanded the lifting of bans on freedom of speech and assembly and the abolition of emergency law, under which Syria has been governed since 1963 when the ruling Baath Party took power in a coup and banned all opposition. Most of its members have spent long periods as political prisoners, including leading opposition figure Raid al-Turk, who spent more than 17 years in solitary confinement under Hafez Assad. Fayez Sara, a journalist who was jailed for two-and-a-half years along with 11 Damascus Declaration members and released in 2010, was arrested again on Sunday, rights activists said. "The secret police have been rounding up every outspoken figure they can get their hands on. They either call them in for 'interrogation' and keep them, pick them up from the street or break into their homes," one of the human rights defenders said. Human Rights Watch reported Tuesday that Syrian security forces prevented wounded protesters from reaching hospitals and stopped medical teams from treating them in two towns during last Friday's demonstrations.
HRW said 27 people were killed in the southern city of Deraa and one other in the Damascus suburb of Douma on Friday. "To deprive wounded people of critical and perhaps life-saving medical treatment is both inhumane and illegal," said Sarah Leah Witson, HRW's Middle East director. She continued, saying "Syria's leaders talk about political reform, but they meet their people's legitimate demands for reform with bullets."
Based on witness accounts, HRW said security forces set up a roadblock near a bridge in Deraa to prevent protesters crossing to the other part of town. One witness said about 50 soldiers were in front, surrounded by several thousand uniformed and civilian-clothed members of security services as well as snipers. When protesters ignored the army's warnings to stop, security forces fired with Kalashnikovs and snipers opened fire at the same time. A HRW witness said security forces did not allow ambulances to pick up the wounded and continued shooting when protesters tried to carry the wounded away. "(The witness) said that he later saw the bodies of a doctor, a nurse and an ambulance driver, who, other witnesses told him, were shot when their ambulance tried to reach the wounded protesters," HRW said in its statement. HRW also documented the accounts of two witnesses in the Damscus suburb of Harasta who said security forces fired on protesters trying to help the wounded. Two doctors said they each treated four wounded protesters with bullet wounds in various parts of their bodies. Several were children. "The Syrian authorities are responding to protests against repression with more repression: killings, mass arbitrary arrests, beatings and torture," Whitson said.
President Assad has said the protests are part of a foreign conspiracy to sow sectarian strife. His father used similar language when he crushed leftist and Islamist challenges to his rule in the 1980s, killing thousands. Syrian security forces sealed off the coastal city of Banias on Monday following pro-democracy protests and killings by irregulars loyal to Assad, residents said.

Saudi Arabia: Second Fukushima if Iranian Bushehr activated in May
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 12, 2011, 1
Saudi and Kuwait officials have warned the US that if Iran activates its first nuclear reactor at Bushehr in May as planned, there is a good chance it will blow up and the entire Gulf region suffer a nuclear disaster on the scale of the misfortune at Japan's Fukushima and expose millions to radiation contamination. This issue was urgently raised in recent Saudi-US talks – first on April 4 with US Defense Secretary Robert Gates and again Monday, April 11, with the National Security Adviser to the US President Tom Donilon.
The two high-level US official visits to Riyadh in six days attest to the fierce discord between Saudi King Abdullah and the administration - not just over Iran and its nuclear activity but the entire gamut of US Middle East policy.
When he met the defense secretary, the king took Gates charged that the White House ignored Saudi intelligence evidence passed to the CIA that Tehran and Hizballah were actively fomenting the unrest in Bahrain with a view to igniting parallel disturbances in the eastern Saudi oil regions among the two million Shiites living there. Abdullah complained bluntly that no matter what evidence is put before President Obama, he refuses to budge from his course of engagement with regard to Iran.
The king declared angrily that the lax American attitude toward Islamic Republic's nuclear aspirations places the very existence of Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf nations in peril. Washington had twisted Saudi arms to refrain from challenging the Bushehr nuclear plant when preparations for its activation were completed last year, despite its harmful potential for the region. (debkafile reported last August that similar pressure was applied to Israel.) Even the Iranians, Abdullah told Gates, were scared to switch it on out of concern for their own people. It was the first time the Saudi monarch linked the Iranian plant with the Japanese nuclear calamity. Tuesday, April 12, Japan raised its severity to maximum seven the same as Chernobyl. Four months ago, on Jan. 26, Moscow acted outside the rules of conventional diplomacy when Russian ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin publicly demanded a NATO investigation into the effects of the Stuxnet malworm on the Bushehr reactor. He repeated a previous warning to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that "The virus attack on a Russian-built nuclear reactor in Iran could trigger a nuclear disaster on the scale of Chernobyl." debkafile's intelligence and Russians sources report that Russian concerns focused on the discovery of the unexplained entry of small pieces of metal into the cooling system. This told them that the Iranians had not managed to stop Stuxnet or its impact on the reactor's control systems and there was no guarantee that more malfunctions capable of causing the plant to blow up had been were not in store. These warnings were initially heeded: Russian-Iranian preparations to active the reactor were suspended and it was emptied of nuclear fuel. But then Friday, April 8, the fuel was reloaded the fuel. The next day, the head of Iran's Nuclear Energy Commission Fereydoun Abbasi said: "Even before the earthquake and nuclear contamination crisis in Japan, Iran had accepted Russian experts' proposal to revise its plant to load fuel into the core of the Bushehr power plant's reactor."Iran had never before referred to the Fukushima in relation to Bushehr. Our sources add that the Abbasi statement clearly held Moscow responsible for any potential nuclear disaster that may beset the Iranian facility. It also confirmed the Saudi claim. Riyadh has accordingly demanded that Washington act without delay and by all means possible to prevent Bushehr going on line next month according to plan. Such US action would be diametrically opposed to the Obama administration's Iran policy at present. However, failure to meet the Saudi demand will deepen the acute crisis in Saudi-US relations and mistrust sparked by the overthrow of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak - with effect on other related issues such as Yemen and even Pakistan.

Iran's IRGC 'now occupies Syria'; Civilians killed in protests
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2011/me_syria0417_04_11.asp
WASHINGTON — Iran has deployed 10,000 elite troops in Syria to protect the regime of President Bashar Assad and has been in effective control of the country for the past week, the opposition said. The Reform Party of Syria said Iran has deployed its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria to bolster Syria's defense. The Washington-based opposition group said the IRGC contingent in Syria contains 10,000 troops, with headquarters in the northern province of Homs.
"In essence, the IRGC now occupies Syria and has become its de facto ruler," RPS spokesman Farid Ghadry said. "Syria has become the 32nd province of Iran."

Can the US block Iran’s drive for regional hegemony?
By DAN MERIDOR /J.Post
04/11/2011 01:51
http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?id=216037
Analysis: Iran has added the religious element to the conflict in a very detrimental way, playing its hand through the proxies it has in this area.
In the Arab-Israeli conflict, the addition of a religious layer to the conflict is new. Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah are all religiously-based. When one speaks and acts for God, there is no compromise.
Iran is a nation of merchants, and it needs the world and its financial system.
This gives leverage to those who want to do something about its nuclear plans. If there is leadership, resolve, and persistence, with more sanctions, and more partners in the game, there is a chance that Iran will have to rethink its policy. Europe can do more. The volume of trade between certain European countries and Iran remains quite heavy.
In the end, this battle will determine the standing of the United States and its power and role in the world in the 21st century. I believe that America has enough power to reinvent itself economically and restore the power that it had, but the perception that Iran is spreading is just the opposite.
Israel is part of the camp that America has been leading for the last 70 years in terms of values, way of life, and democracy.
It is important to us that this camp not lose its power in the world, and that is why a strong America is a very clear Israeli interest, regardless of whether the Democrats or Republicans are in power.
Compare the United States with its arsenal and al-Qaeda; of course the United States is much stronger. The Israeli army is much stronger than Hezbollah or Hamas, but the wars with Hezbollah in 2006 and Hamas in 2009 did not end in unconditional surrender of the other side. Success does bring deterrence, but not surrender.
Years ago it was important to know what was happening with your neighbor because he could attack you, but Manhattan was attacked from Afghanistan. The whole world becomes a potential enemy or ally. The modern technological era has reduced the importance of borders for barring information, people, or missiles. Nations can no longer control the flow of information.
People are much more powerful, while states are less so. This also means that the bad guys become very potent as well.
This has meant a change in the nature of war. Wars are now fought where everybody sees them in real time on television.
This puts limits on what you can do in an open world today. The stronger side becomes weaker because everyone can see what he does, while the weaker side becomes stronger because everyone can see what is done to him. It does not mean that the strong side is bad and the weak side is good, but it changes the nature of war.
The players also now include nonstate actors. Most threatening to some Arab regimes is the Al-Jazeera television channel. Other important actors that are not states include the Taliban, al- Qaeda, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and Hamas.
Another new factor is a return to religion in the Muslim world, as in other parts of the world. If you ask people how they identify themselves, in the past you would hear many people speak of their Arab identity as their first identity.
Today more people will say that they are first of all Muslim. The Taliban, Islamic Jihad, al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Hezbollah are all religiously-based.
When one speaks and acts for God, there is no compromise. In the Arab- Israeli conflict, the addition of this religious layer to the conflict is new.
Egypt’s Nasser never said that he fights for Allah against the Jews, nor did the Syrians or Jordanians. Now one hears from Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas that there cannot be a non-Muslim state here.
The most important conflict that is developing in the world today is the Iran-America conflict over the nuclearization of Iran. If Iran does go nuclear, this will have implications for the world order as we know it. First, it may spell the end of the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime. Some countries, such as Egypt, have said that if Iran goes nuclear, they would too.
Others may do it without saying it.
In a world in which more countries are going nuclear, rather than giving up on nuclear weapons or playing within the rules, the ability of the superpowers to intervene will be harder and perhaps non-existent.
The alliance between the West and the Arab Gulf area states has been based on those states giving access to oil – a key element in the world economy. At the same time, the West/America is leading the defense of those regimes against radical movements. Those countries have been concerned with Iranian nuclearization, which would mean Iranian hegemony, coupled with the declared Iranian policy of exporting its revolution. If America and the West cannot protect them, they might go along with Iran. Think of a world where Iran and its allies have such an influence over the price of oil.
Out of the 1.4 billion Muslims, the vast majority want, like every human being, a good life and stability, although not necessarily democracy. Yet in all these societies there are minority groups that want to destabilize this way of life and create something new and more religiously observant, as they understand it. They are fighting a battle against Western ideas, such as equality of women, and against basic freedoms, such as freedom of speech. All of them are looking at the Iran-America conflict to see who will win. A victory for Iran is a victory for all these groups. Think of how arrogant Hezbollah may become if Iran wins over America. Think of how arrogant Hamas will be vis-à-vis the PLO.
Iran has added the religious element to the conflict in a very detrimental way, playing its hand through the proxies it has in this area. Hezbollah is a unique phenomenon, a Lebanese party that is also Syrian and Iranian. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah calls himself the personal emissary of Iran’s Supreme Leader. Here you see more evidence of a change from a national to a religious identification. Nasrallah is an Arab and Lebanese by nationality, and a close friend and military ally of a non-Arab, non-Lebanese, Persian Iranian called Ahmadinejad, fighting against other Arabs and Lebanese. This is because Nasrallah and his followers are first and foremost Shiites, which is more important to them than all the other components.
Iran and Syria support Hezbollah with weapons systems, intelligence, training, and an ideology of delegitimizing and liquidating Israel.
Hezbollah has 50,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israel from the north, more than any other country in the world. Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, which are Sunni, have more than 5,000 rockets aimed at Israel, some of them from Iran and Syria.
What is the exact point at which we say that Iran is nuclear? Every day of enrichment, Iran gets closer to its goal.
Every day in which they build more missiles with which to launch warheads, they get closer. Every day they proceed with the weaponization process, they get closer. It has not happened as quickly and as successfully as they wanted it to happen, but the world needs to act so that the world order is not totally undermined by an Iranian nuclear capability as well as its possible hegemony within the Muslim world.
This ongoing battle between America and its allies and Iran is of major importance to all of us. We should not ask others to fight for us. However, if there is real world interest in stopping Iranian hegemony and its nuclear capability, then they may do something about it in time.
As the Iranians continue with their nuclear plans, they defy the West, the UN, and the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran is an ancient nation with a proud history and culture. It is a nation of merchants, and it needs the world and its financial system. This gives leverage to those who want to do something about its nuclear plans. Last year we began seeing some steps that were quite important: UN sanctions, EU sanctions, and US sanctions.
If there is leadership, resolve, and persistence, with more sanctions, and more partners in the game, there is a chance that Iran will have to rethink its policy.
The United States has been quite successful in getting the Russians on board for the UN resolution. Somewhat reluctantly, even the Chinese got on board.
Europe appears determined in declaring the importance of putting an end to the Iranian attempt to go nuclear, but Europe can do more. The volume of trade between certain European countries and Iran remains quite heavy. An organized world has the ability to act in a concerted manner to make it clear to Iran that it needs to change its policy.
In the end, this battle will determine not only the standing of Iran, but, to a large extent, the standing of the United States and its power and role in the world in the 21st century. Iran says that America is an empire of the past, and that the American economy, the bedrock of American strength, is weak. I believe that America has enough power to reinvent itself economically and restore its power, but the perception that Iran is spreading is just the opposite.
Israel did not need WikiLeaks to know what some neighboring regimes think of Iran. In meetings with an important American politician who was in Israel after having visited six or seven Arab countries regarding the Palestinian- Israeli issue, he said that on average each meeting was 10 percent about the Palestinian issue and 90% about Iran. If the countries which oppose Iran get weaker, it is better for Iran. Egypt was one of those countries which stood against Iran with the West. We do not want to see the strengthening of the radical axis and the weakening of the moderate axis.
The role of the free world is to support the Iranian opposition. Not that support will immediately bring them victory, but support is the main source of their confidence in the possibility of victory. Many people who lived in the Soviet Union and fought against the Soviet regime to let the Jews out have said that as long as nobody in the world knew about them, from the time of Stalin to Brezhnev, there was little chance of success. When the world started to know and react, the Jews knew there was a chance of success and this reinforced their struggle.
It is important that Iran’s perception does not gain a hold on the thinking of people in the Middle East and around the world. If America takes an openly stated, clear lead and coalesces with its natural partners in this campaign, this can improve America’s role in the world order that all of us want to see. Even though we all have different state interests, we are part of the camp that America has been leading for the last 70 years in terms of values, way of life, and democracy. It is important to us that this camp not lose its power in the world, and that is why a strong America is a very clear Israeli interest, regardless of whether the Democrats or Republicans are in power.
Negotiating with Syria? Syria is the main political ally of Iran in the Arab world. I am one of those few Israelis who think that we should negotiate with Syria, not that I like what the Syrian regime is doing. Will there be an agreement in the end? I know what they want from me, but what I want from them is a full peace, like Jordan and Egypt. They must stop the support of terror organizations, including Hezbollah, and cut away from the Iranian axis. It is an open question whether we can get all of this.
It has to do with the strength of America and Iran. There is not just an Israeli- Syrian closed circle; there is a bigger circle of power relationships that needs to be taken into account.
**The writer is deputy prime minister and minister of intelligence and atomic energy. This Jerusalem Issue Brief is based on a recent presentation to the Institute for Contemporary Affairs at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.