LCCC
ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِApril
02/2011
Biblical Event Of The
Day
Luke 12/8-12: "I
tell you, everyone who confesses me before men, him will the Son of Man also
confess before the angels of God; 12:9 but he who denies me in the presence of
men will be denied in the presence of the angels of God. 12:10 Everyone who
speaks a word against the Son of Man will be forgiven, but those who blaspheme
against the Holy Spirit will not be forgiven. 12:11 When they bring you before
the synagogues, the rulers, and the authorities, don’t be anxious how or what
you will answer, or what you will say; 12:12 for the Holy Spirit will teach you
in that same hour what you must say.”
Latest
analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases
from
miscellaneous
sources
Stabilization time for Lebanon/By:
Michael Young/April
01/11
Middle East unrest and home
strife weigh on Lebanon/Michael Karam /April
01/11
Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for April
01/11
Thousands defy Assad to protest in
Syria/Now Lebanon
Security Forces Fear that
Estonians Are No Longer in Lebanon/Naharnet
Suleiman Meets al-Rahi, Urges
Shami to Intensify Efforts to Ensure Lebanese's Safe Return from Abidjan/Naharnet
New Maronite
patriarch pledges to work in partnership
with Muslims/The Pilot
Abidjan Fighting Delays Evacuation of Lebanese Amid Fears for their Lives/Naharnet
Around 100000 Lebanese remain in
crisis-hit Ivory Coast/Daily Stars
Hezbollah refuses to comment on
Israeli maps allegedly detailing its military sites/Daily
Star
Arslan meets Aoun, says
Mikati must be transparent/iloubnan.info
Berri suggested solution for
cabinet impasse, 'As Safir'/iloubnan.info
Berri Suggests Way Out of Government Crisis/Naharnet
Moussawi: Lebanon Should
Take Official Stand and Respond to Israeli Leaks/Naharnet
Israeli Army Exercises on
All-out War with Hizbullah/Naharnet
Japanese Radiation Reaches
Region: Not Harmful to Humans/Naharnet
Intense Meetings Seek to
End Cabinet Deadlock/Naharnet
Caretaker PM Unveils
Statue of ex-PM Hariri: They Have Turned the Weapons against Beirut in Your
Absence/Naharnet
Jumblat: Syria's Security
Essential to Lebanon's Security, it Doesn't Need Lectures on Nationalism from
West/Naharnet
Miqati Telephones Assad,
Praises Syrian People's Support for his Leadership/Naharnet
Bassil: We Haven't Yet Reached
the Point of Regret for Naming Miqati/Naharnet
Security
Forces Fear that Estonians Are No Longer in Lebanon
Naharnet/High-ranking security sources have expressed fear that Wael Abbas, the
ringleader of the cell that kidnapped the seven Estonians, might have handed
over the hostages to another network.The sources told An Nahar daily on Friday
that Abbas could have also transferred the cyclists, who were kidnapped near
Zahle's industrial zone on March 23, "to outside the Lebanese territories," in
reference to Syria. Abbas was hiding inside houses in the Bekaa town of Majdal
Anjar as security forces carried out raids in the area on Thursday, they said.
But the sources said the town's residents were cooperating with police to track
him and another member of the cell who is also from Majdal Anjar. The network's
four other members are now in custody. Abbas reportedly told them before their
arrest that the Estonian tourists "were handed over to the sides" that ordered
the kidnapping.
The sources also said that the claim by the previously-unheard of group, Haraket
al-Nahda Wal-Islah (the Movement for Revival and Reform) for the abduction was
aimed at distracting investigators. Beirut, 01 Apr 11, 10:13
Suleiman Meets al-Rahi, Urges Shami to Intensify Efforts to Ensure Lebanese's
Safe Return from Abidjan
Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman held talks on Friday with Maronite Patriarch
Beshara al-Rahi and former Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir at the Baabda palace.The
president congratulated al-Rahi for his election, commending Sfeir's tenure as
patriarch for 25 years and awarding him the Order of the Cedars. Suleiman also
held a close-door meeting with al-Rahi during which they discussed matters of
joint interest between the presidency and patriarchate. A luncheon banquet was
later thrown in al-Rahi and Sfeir's honor. The president the held talks with
caretaker Foreign Minister Ali Shami who informed him of the measures being
taken to evacuate the Lebanese from the Ivory Coast. Suleiman urged Shami to
intensify his contacts with concerned states, especially France, to protect the
Lebanese in the African country and ensure their safe return to their homeland.
Beirut, 01 Apr 11, 14:10
Around 100000 Lebanese remain in crisis-hit Ivory
Coast
Daily Star - Lebanon
BEIRUT: Around 100,000 Lebanese are believed to be caught up in civil strife in
Ivory Coast, with a surge of violence in the West African country prompting
Lebanese officials to act.
Speaker Nabih Berri contacted several French officials Thursday to secure
assistance in protecting the lives of Lebanese nationals in Abidjan and other
cities in Ivory Coast as the country plunges into an all-out civil war.
Berri also contacted caretaker Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Shami after
canceling his appointments and meetings to remain updated on the situation.
Violence was renewed in Ivory Coast following presidential elections last
November which sparked a dispute between the reported winner, Alassane Ouattara,
and incumbent Laurent Gbagbo, who has refused to leave office. Shami contacted
Lebanon’s ambassador to Ivory Coast, Ali Ajami, to receive assurances about the
safety of the Lebanese expatriates there.
“The Lebanese community is doing fine and the security situation in Abidjan is
still acceptable,” said Ajami, despite reports that Ouattara’s rebels have
reached the outskirts of Abidjan, the former Ivorian capital. But the head of
the World Lebanese Cultural Union, Ahmad Nasser, urged the government to act
quickly and evacuate women and children through coordination with other friendly
states. Nasser expressed his worries to Shami in a telephone call Thursday,
conveying reports that the financial losses of Lebanese nationals had reached
millions of dollars as a result of the chaos. The Lebanese community has also
been targeted following accusations by many of Ouattara’s forces that Lebanese
have been meddling in Ivorian affairs by funding Gbagbo and his forces across
the country. Earlier this month, Lebanese businessman Ali Fawwaz was found
murdered in a river in Abidjan, raising concerns in the Lebanese community as
Ouattara’s forces close in on the largest city, Abidjan. According to Nasser,
Lebanese in Ivory Coast are living in a state of “fear and anxiety,” especially
in the capital city of Yamassoukro. Nasser added that Lebanese have repeatedly
called for an increase in the number by Middle East Airlines between Lebanon and
Ivory Coast.
Security sources told The Daily Star that although riots have broken out in many
places, the unrest has yet to reach Ivorian airports, meaning that Lebanese in
the country still have access to international flights from Abidjan. According
to a security source at the Rafik Hariri International Airport, a special flight
by a Middle East Airlines Airbus 332 to help the Lebanese community in Abidjan
is set to depart from Beirut at 8 a.m. Friday.
The Airbus, with a capacity of 240 seats, is expected to arrive back late
Friday. – The Daily Star
Hezbollah refuses to comment on Israeli maps allegedly detailing its military
sites
Party denies any involvement in destabilizing events in Bahrain
By Marlin Dick /Daily Star staff/Friday, April 01, 2011
BEIRUT: Israel’s latest media salvo against Hezbollah, the release of maps
claiming the existence of around 1,000 military sites in South Lebanon, was met
by an official stance of “no comment” by the party Thursday. The Israeli
military released a map detailing what it says are approximately 550 underground
bunkers, along with 300 monitoring sites and 100 weapons storage facilities. The
Israelis have highlighted the location of the sites, saying that they are
located near homes, schools and hospitals, to hammer home the argument that
Hezbollah takes advantage of hiding among civilian populations. A spokesman for
the party contacted by The Daily Star said Hezbollah had “no comment” on the
news.
The Israeli military website says the resistance has built up the sites since
the July 2006 war, and claims that “Hezbollah militants have doubled in number
since that time.”
The item re-states earlier estimates by Israeli officials and politicians that
Hezbollah has an arsenal of more than 40,000 rockets, predicting that in the
event of a new armed conflict, “Hezbollah will be able to launch between 500 and
600 rockets at Israel every day.” The Israelis also posted a second map
detailing what it said was a “main civilian center” for storing munitions, in
the village of Khiam. It added that “more than 100 Hezbollah militants operate
in the village, including special forces ready for combat with [Israeli Army]
soldiers.”
A military analyst, retired General Elias Hanna, told The Daily Star the item
could be considered a case of “pinging the system,” to provoke Hezbollah into
moving its positions in the south, as well as a message with multiple goals.
“It’s meant to delegitimize Hezbollah, as violating [United Nations Security
Council Resolution] 1701,” which ended the 2006 conflict, Hanna said.
“They are saying: we know where your posts are, your command and control areas,
and that you are near urban areas, so you have no right to hide,” Hanna said.
Hanna added that the Israelis were probably focused on warning Hezbollah against
taking advantage of regional instability, after a recent spate of violence
between Israel and Palestinian groups. He also speculated that the Israelis
might be sending a message to Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati, who is
seeking to form a government in which Hezbollah will be represented. The Israeli
army accused Hezbollah of “trying to distort the balance of power in Lebanon and
return to full, routine militant activity in southeast Lebanon, similar to its
activity levels just prior to the war in 2006.” Separately, Hezbollah denied
Thursday that it was involved in destabilizing events in Bahrain, which
experienced violence last month between government forces and protestors
demanding reform. Hezbollah said that after its leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
earlier expressed support for the anti-regime demonstrators in the Gulf country,
it refrained from responding to the wave of condemnation for getting involved in
the affairs of an Arab country. “But the accusation of training [by Hezbollah of
Bahraini opposition groups] or giving a military or security dimension to what
is happening in Bahrain is something that we cannot remain silent about,” the
party said in a statement. “None of our Bahraini brethren has every requested
security or military training from us,” Hezbollah said, reiterating its support
for the popular protests and condemning the government’s “arbitrary repression”
of demonstrators there.
Thousands
defy Assad to protest in Syria
April 1, 2011 Thousands of Syrians emerged from prayers to protest in the
country's north and south on Friday, in the first rallies since President Bashar
al-Assad dashed hopes for greater freedoms. Witnesses in Daraa, one of the main
focal points of rising dissent, told AFP that thousands of faithful gathered
outside the flashpoint southern town's courthouse after leaving a mosque. "Death
rather than humiliation," and "National Unity," they shouted. Chants were also
directed against Assad, whose highly anticipated speech to parliament on
Wednesday failed to match the demands of pro-reform protests that erupted more
than two weeks ago. Protests took place for the first time in the mainly Kurdish
populated northeast by hundreds of people.
"Hundreds of people marched peacefully through the streets after Friday prayers
in Qamishli and Amuda chanting 'We want freedom' and 'God, Syria and freedom',"
Kurdish rights activist Radif Mustafa told AFP. The "Friday of Martyrs" protests
were also held from the coastal city of Latakia to Homs and Darriya, near the
capital Damascus, where people chanted: "My beloved Syria, give me my freedom."
The official SANA news agency confirmed demonstrations took place without
incident near mosques in Daraa and Latakia, where protesters paid tribute to
martyrs and called for speedier reforms. In Damascus, hundreds of protesters
locked themselves up inside Al-Rifai mosque in the city centre chanting
"Freedom, freedom," as security forces tried to break in, a demonstrator said,
and a group of pro-regime loyalists gathered in the square opposite. It was the
third week in succession for protests following Friday Muslim prayers. President
Assad, who is facing domestic pressure unprecedented in his 11-year rule, failed
to lift almost 50 years of emergency rule in his first address to the nation
since the protests demanding greater freedoms broke out on March 15. Instead, he
said there was a "conspiracy" targeting unity in Syria, blaming the country's
"enemies" for taking advantage of the needs of the people to incite division in
the country ruled by emergency law since the Baath party seized power in 1963.
The Syrian Revolution 2011, a wildly popular yet anonymous Facebook group that
has emerged as a motor of the protests, had called for rallies at all mosques
after Friday prayers until their demands for "freedom" are met. "The real cause,
the ultimate cause, is that we have been... beaten in our own streets, silenced,
for more than 40 years," one activist, who preferred to remain anonymous, said
before the midday prayers. "But the most pressing cause, in today's rallies, is
the president's speech, which dashed all our hopes and expectations," he told
AFP. "We have been hearing the same speech for decades." In a video message
posted online, Syrian human rights lawyer Haytham Maleh had called on protesters
to keep up their pressure until the government bows to their demands. "I appeal
to Syrians to continue to put pressure on the authorities to fulfill the
legitimate demands they have," said Maleh, warning authorities would "assume
full responsibility" if they fail to satisfy the protesters. The protests so far
have been deadly with activists estimating more than 160 people killed in
clashes with security forces, mainly in Daraa, a tribal area on the Jordanian
border, and the coastal city of Latakia. Officials put the death toll at about
30 and have accused Muslim extremists and "armed gangs" of pushing peaceful
rallies into violence with the aim of inciting sectarian unrest in Syria, which
prides itself on coexistence in a region torn by confessional strife.
In a conciliatory move, Assad on Thursday ordered a string of reforms, including
a study of new laws on the media and political pluralism and plans to tackle the
plight of 300,000 Kurds who have been denied Syrian citizenship for close to
half a century. He has also ordered an immediate investigation into the Daraa
and Latakia killings and the formation of a committee to draft new laws on
national security and counter-terrorism. The committee would "pave the way for
ending the state of emergency" and should complete its work by April 25.
Yet the state's attempt to reach out to protesters has failed to impress
opposition movements and international rights groups, which say the president
has missed a golden opportunity.
-AFP/NOW Lebanon
Bassil:
We Haven't Yet Reached the Point of Regret for Naming Miqati
Caretaker Energy Minister Jebran Bassil has stressed that the Change and Reform
bloc "hasn't yet reached the point of regret" for nominating Najib Miqati as
premier but described the status quo as "dangerous" which will impose a review
of the bloc's policies. In remarks to An Nahar daily published Friday, Bassil
said that Miqati believed the bloc's demand for 12 ministers in the new cabinet
was exaggerated. "We haven't yet reached the point of regret" in choosing Miqati
"but surely this frustrating and dangerous situation will make us take another
look at this issue," he said. Bassil reiterated that Free Patriotic Movement
leader Michel Aoun's Change and Reform bloc was holding onto its demand for the
interior ministry portfolio in the new cabinet, adding: "This does not mean we
don't have a say on other ministries." The FPM official said there was an
attempt to transform the new parliamentary majority into two teams – the
previous opposition and an independent group. While Bassil did not name any
single party behind the delay in the formation of the government, he said: "The
essential problem today is that there isn't a unified understanding on the
source of the problems or the differences." He hinted that the obstacles facing
the cabinet formation won't be removed as long as "there isn't a unified
understanding on the nature of the problem." Bassil also described reports about
a possible proposal of a "de facto government" as a "threat." Beirut, 01 Apr 11,
09:22
Moussawi:
Lebanon Should Take Official Stand and Respond to Israeli Leaks
Naharnet/Loyalty to the Resistance bloc MP Nawwaf Moussawi stressed on Friday
the need for Lebanon to take an official stance and respond to Israeli leaks of
military and security plans to attack Lebanon. It should retaliate through a
media, political, and diplomatic campaign that would prevent the Jewish state
from "fabricating facts before the international public opinion."
"Lebanon should assert that it has always been a victim of Israeli aggression
and it has the right to take defensive measures against it," he stated. "The
leaks should not be met with such silence, but the Israeli military and
political criminals should be put on trial … The Lebanese foreign ministry
should charge Lebanon's ambassadors to foreign countries to take the emergency
procedures to highlight Israel's war crimes," Moussawi added. Earlier this week,
the Israeli military held a set of war games aimed at preparing the army for
all-out war with Hizbullah, Syria and Hamas, the Jerusalem Post reported.
Beirut, 01 Apr 11, 12:56
Miqati Telephones Assad, Praises Syrian People's Support for his Leadership
Naharnet/Prime Minister-designate Najib Miqati praised in a telephone call with
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Thursday the Syrian people's support for his
leadership.
The premier also lauded them for obstructing attempts to create strife given the
recent demonstrations in Syria. Miqati and Assad also addressed developments in
the Middle East. Earlier on Thursday, the prime minister-designate held talks on
local and regional developments with former French Prime Minister Laurent Fabius
in the presence of the French Ambassador to Lebanon. Miqati also met with the
Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon Ahmed al-Bedewi. Beirut, 31 Mar 11, 12:01
Question:
"What is moral relativism?"
GotQuestions.org
Answer: Moral relativism is more easily understood in comparison to moral
absolutism. Absolutism claims that morality relies on universal principles
(natural law, conscience). Christian absolutists believe that God is the
ultimate source of our common morality, and that it is, therefore, as unchanging
as He is. Moral relativism asserts that morality is not based on any absolute
standard. Rather, ethical “truths” depend on variables such as the situation,
culture, one's feelings, etc.
Several things can be said of the arguments for moral relativism which
demonstrate their dubious nature. First, while many of the arguments used in the
attempt to support relativism might sound good at first, there is a logical
contradiction inherent in all of them because they all propose the “right” moral
scheme—the one we all ought to follow. But this itself is absolutism. Second,
even so-called relativists reject relativism in most cases. They would not say
that a murderer or rapist is free from guilt so long as he did not violate his
own standards.
Relativists may argue that different values among different cultures show that
morals are relative to different people. But this argument confuses the actions
of individuals (what they do) with absolute standards (whether they should do
it). If culture determines right and wrong, how could we have judged the Nazis?
After all, they were only following their culture's morality. Only if murder is
universally wrong were the Nazis wrong. The fact that they had “their morality”
does not change that. Further, although many people have different practices of
morality, they still share a common morality. For instance, abortionists and
anti-abortionists agree that murder is wrong, but they disagree on whether
abortion is murder. So, even here, absolute universal morality is shown to be
true.
Some claim that changing situations make for changing morality—in different
situations different acts are called for that might not be right in other
situations. But there are three things by which we must judge an act: the
situation, the act, and the intention. For example, we can convict someone of
attempted murder (intent) even if they fail (act). So situations are part of the
moral decision, for they set the context for choosing the specific moral act
(the application of universal principles).
The main argument relativists appeal to is that of tolerance. They claim that
telling someone their morality is wrong is intolerant, and relativism tolerates
all views. But this is misleading. First of all, evil should never be tolerated.
Should we tolerate a rapist's view that women are objects of gratification to be
abused? Second, it is self-defeating because relativists do not tolerate
intolerance or absolutism. Third, relativism cannot explain why anyone should be
tolerant in the first place. The very fact that we should tolerate people (even
when we disagree) is based on the absolute moral rule that we should always
treat people fairly—but that is absolutism again! In fact, without universal
moral principles there can be no goodness.
The fact is that all people are born with a conscience, and we all instinctively
know when we have been wronged or when we have wronged others. We act as though
we expect others to recognize this as well. Even as children we knew the
difference between “fair” and “unfair.” It takes bad philosophy to convince us
that we are wrong and that moral relativism is true.
**Recommended Resource: Relativism: Feet Firmly Planted in Mid-Air by Francis
Beckwith
Stabilization time for Lebanon
Michael Young, /Now Lebanon
April 1, 2011
For a man who was supposed to shield the Maronite Church from the tremors of
politics, Patriarch Bishara al-Rai has launched himself into the political pit
feet first and head forward. After offering a ringing endorsement of Minister
Ziad Baroud last weekend, Rai declared on Wednesday that a government of “one
color” was undesirable.
The patriarch will have gotten significant assistance from Bashar al-Assad. The
Syrian president’s speech on Wednesday was seen by most people as profoundly
disappointing; but worse, it was viewed by many Syrians as an insult. This can
only complicate the political situation in Syria, which means the Assad regime
may be loath to sanction a government in Beirut that creates more headaches for
Damascus.
A headache is precisely what the Syrian president may face by endorsing a
one-sided government under the influence of Hezbollah. Assad does not want to
alienate the Sunni-dominated states of the Gulf, whose leaders this week called
to express support for his regime. But he had already gotten a warning last
Friday, when Sheikh Yusif al-Qaradawi, in his Friday sermon from Doha, welcomed
the fact that “the train of revolution” had reached Syria. For Assad, this was a
troubling reminder that his margin of maneuver in dealing with Syria’s Sunni
community, and by extension Lebanon’s, is limited.
It is doubtful that the protests in Syria will die down in the foreseeable
future. Indeed, the contrary is more probable. In that context, Rai’s advice is
sound. It would be a grave mistake for the prime minister-elect, Najib Mikati,
to go through with establishing a government allowing Hezbollah and Michel Aoun
to impose agendas that might only increase tension in Lebanon. Until now Mikati
has refused to do so, and in this he has had the backing of President Michel
Sleiman, but also, more furtively, of Walid Jumblatt.
This week Jumblatt spoke for the first time in months with Saad Hariri, and has
called for a resumption of the national dialogue. The Druze leader is worried
about events in Syria and their repercussions for Lebanon. He is also annoyed
with Michel Aoun’s rapacious cabinet demands. Jumblatt has made it clear to his
allies that he is the one responsible for taking the parliamentary majority away
from March 14, and therefore will not consent to being marginal in the
government.
Almost everyone appears to be quietly but firmly abandoning the notion of a
government led by Hezbollah and the Aounists. According to Al-Jumhouria on
Thursday, the Qatari government has circulated ideas, allegedly with Syrian
knowledge, to refloat the present Hariri government. The idea would be to revive
the previous ministerial statement approving Hezbollah’s weapons, in exchange
for a reaffirmation of Lebanon’s commitment to United Nations resolutions. This
would shelve Hezbollah’s plan to use the “false witnesses” controversy to
discredit the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.
Hariri is not soon likely to accept such a proposal, however there is a definite
need to go along with the Qataris’ rationale: Namely, to find a formula to
stabilize the Lebanese political scene at a moment when developments in Syria
may exacerbate Lebanese sectarian differences. Not many in March 14 are willing
to listen to Jumblatt these days, but he’s correct in that a vacuum in Beirut at
such a sensitive moment next door is in the interest of none of the Lebanese
parties.
Complicating matters is Michel Aoun’s health. He reportedly suffered an ischemic
incident this week, most commonly caused by a blood clot in the brain.
Reportedly, the attack was transient, which means that Aoun may emerge with
little or no lasting negative consequences. However, many will be watching to
see whether this situation affects the political calculations of the poles
within the Aounist movement, particularly those family members competing for
Aoun’s legacy.
At the least, Aoun’s health crisis, like his political intransigence in
negotiating cabinet shares, makes it increasingly certain that we have entered a
new phase in the months-long political face-off in Lebanon. The Special Tribunal
is no longer the main preoccupation of the hour. Hezbollah’s strategy toward the
so-called false witnesses has hit up against numerous obstacles, above all the
fact that Sunni-Shia relations will suffer if Lebanon severs ties with the
tribunal.
Perhaps Hezbollah can take some solace in the fact that the tribunal’s
prosecutor, Daniel Bellemare, recently filed what was described as an expanded
draft indictment. For some foreign legal experts, this was very possibly a sign
that his initial draft was deficient.
Mikati cannot fashion a government of national unity, but he should think
seriously of a government of national consensus. The new cabinet should include
competent independents, approved by the major political factions. Call them
whatever you want, but the prime objective of this team should be to do what the
Mikati government of 2005 did: manage affairs impartially until parliamentary
elections, while shielding Lebanon from the convulsions of the Middle East.
The prime minister-elect should begin by bluntly announcing that the “government
of one color” project is dead. Hezbollah and Aoun might resist, but it’s time
for Mikati to show nerve. Lebanon needs someone to lead, and Mikati stood
against Hariri and a majority of Sunnis in saying that he could do so. With
events in Syria as they are, the prime minister-elect should downgrade his
ambitions and manage a delicate Lebanese transition. We shouldn’t expect more
for now.
Michael Young is opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut and author
of The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life
Struggle, which the Wall Street Journal listed as one of its 10 standout books
for 2010.
Middle East unrest and home
strife weigh on Lebanon
Michael Karam /The National
http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/industry-insights/economics/middle-east-unrest-and-home-strife-weigh-on-lebanon
Last Updated: Mar 31, 2011
You know those images one sees on the news during hurricane season in the
Caribbean? The ones of wearily resigned, often rain-lashed residents boarding up
their property ahead of the impending storm?
You do? Well that's how many in the Lebanese business community are feeling.
We know a storm is coming. We saw dark clouds on the horizon when Barclays
Capitalforecast a dip in growth of 2 percentage points, but I suspect that was
based mainly on the fact that Lebanon has not had a government for two months
and tensions surrounding the tribunal examining the death of a former prime
minister are mounting.
That was before Bahrain declared Hizbollah a terrorist organisation, accusing it
of training Shia protesters, and severed virtually all ties with Lebanon.
That was before civilians were dying in the streets of Syrian towns and cities,
and definitely before seven Estonians on a cycling holiday were kidnapped in the
Bekaa Valley in broad daylight soon after crossing into Lebanon from Syria.
Suddenly, Lebanon finds itself in a three-pronged pincer that threatens
isolation, political fallout and a return to the days when it was the place to
avoid.
Manama's anger at Hassan Nasrallah, the Hizbollah leader who has offered support
- moral and material - to the Bahraini Shia, could have huge economic
implications.
Mr Nasrallah might have raised his stock among the region's Shia but many other
Lebanese are groaning.
A friend, busy chasing payment for work lost during the first days of the crisis
on Bahrain, suddenly found he could not even call the country, while Bahraini
students at the fee-paying American University of Beirut were summoned home.
More worrying is the real possibility that many Bahrainis will not be
vacationing in Lebanon this summer. The decision to give Lebanon a miss might
become contagious and it is this scenario the hospitality sector dreads the
most. Lebanon has been lazy in diversifying its tourism portfolio. It has relied
on the dirham, riyal and dinar by offering a tried and tested formula based on
luxury hotels, restaurants, cafes and boutiques. Lebanon knows the Arab tourist,
as regional visitors are known in these parts, comes for the relative coolness,
the mountain air and the chance to kick back in a way they cannot at home. It is
such a winning formula that there have been only token efforts to truly develop
Lebanon's other niche tourist sectors - religion, wine, heritage, ecology and
winter sports - all of which tend to appeal more to Europeans (although we
probably won't see any cyclists in the Bekaa for a while).
Arabic language newspapers comment the moral war against Qaddafi, Syrian claims
that Palestinians are behind unrest, and the red herring of "intruders" in Arab
revolutions.
Tourism officials and members of the private sector have always boasted that
Lebanon is not for the mass market. Club Med is unlikely to be coming to town
soon. They know who their clients are and they know how to make them happy. That
all might change if the boycott spreads.
Of further concern are events in Syria. Not only could the demonstrations have
economic consequences with a major trading partner but the political fallout
could very easily spread over the border.
Indeed, on Sunday, a bomb exploded in a church in Zahle, the Bekaa city close to
where the Estonians disappeared - and they are still missing.
"Bekaa Valley" - and its associations with shady guerrilla groups, drug lords
and missile sites - and "kidnapping" are words that have fuelled many thrillers.
They are the cliches that the Lebanese had hoped the West had banished from its
Lebanon lexicon. However shallow, the Lebanese would much prefer their country
to be defined by words such as parties (the fun kind), nightlife and glamour.
The last thing Lebanon needs, after much good press in the world's media, is to
be re-labelled a bad place. There's more: a regional economic downturn caused by
the mayhem in Libya and the transition of power in Egypt could easily see a
greater reliance on local hirings. Foreign remittances make up nearly a third of
Lebanon's GDP and any depletion would hit hard. We haven't even mentioned the
effect a surge in oil prices would have on the cost of manufacturing and
consumer goods. Last week, I wrote, "suddenly Lebanon doesn't look too bad",
arguing that at least it has the democracy much of the Arab world is demanding.
I may have spoken too soon.