LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِJune 19/2010

Bible Of the Day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 21,34-36. Beware that your hearts do not become drowsy from carousing and drunkenness and the anxieties of daily life, and that day catch you by surprise like a trap. For that day will assault everyone who lives on the face of the earth. Be vigilant at all times and pray that you have the strength to escape the tribulations that are imminent and to stand before the Son of Man."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters, Interviews & Special Reports
Interview with N. Gmayel/By:
Ben Evansky/June 18/10
If Nasrallah is killed/By:Nicholas Lowry/June 18/10
March 14, the morning after/By:Michael Young/June 18/10
The road to nowhere/Now Lebanon/June 18/10

What does Syria want from Lebanon? Daily Star/June 18/10

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for June 18/10
Sfeir: Aoun No Longer Powerful at Christian Level, Syria-LebanonTies Must be Friendly /Now Lebanon
Sfeir stresses on Lebanon’s control over arms/Now Lebanon
Israel's Barak warns Lebanese Cabinet over Gaza aid fleet/AFP
MP Gemayel: Jumblat Has Lost His Credibility, His Statements Don't Deserve a Reply/Naharnet
Nazif: Lebanon's Security and Stability are Very Important to Egypt, But We Live in a Very Difficult Region/Naharnet
National Dialogue puts off defense talks until August 19/News Agencies /Now Lebanon
Kuwait asks Lebanon not to hand over detainee to Iraq/AFP
Heed the signals from Syria, Israel/Daily Star/18 June/10 /Now Lebanon
Lebanon inks 18 deals to boost ties with Egypt/Daily Star
Suleiman to National Dialogue: Assad Showed 'Openness' to Demarcation Issue/Naharnet
Murr Rejects Merging Hizbullah Weapons with Army/Now Lebanon
Hariri Snaps Back at Williams: Border Demarcation Involves 2 Neighbors/Now Lebanon
100,000 Iraqi Refugees to Be Resettled in Lebanon, Elsewhere in Mideast/Now Lebanon
Fadlallah Urges Government to Be "Guardian" of Citizens/Now Lebanon
Lebanon, Egypt Sign 18 Agreements as Nazif Starts 2-Day Official Visit to Beirut/Now Lebanon

Sfeir back in Beirut
June 18, 2010 ظMaronite Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir returned to Beirut from France on Friday and was welcomed by Culture Minister Salim Wardeh on behalf of President Michel Sleiman at Beirut’s Rafik Hariri International Airport, the National News Agency (NNA) reported.Sfeir traveled to Paris on Monday upon an official invitation from France and met with the country’s president, Nicolas Sarkozy, as well as other high-ranking officials. “The results [of France’s visit] will be revealed later,” Sfeir said upon his arrival to Beirut.
-NOW Lebanon

Sfeir stresses on Lebanon’s control over arms
June 18, 2010
Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir told As-Sharq radio station from France on Friday that the Lebanese state should have control over the use of arms instead of certain factions, a possible reference to Hezbollah and the armed Palestinian groups in Lebanon. Sfeir traveled to Paris on Monday upon an official invitation from France.
He said that Israel’s behavior is unpredictable, adding, “When [the Jewish State] wants to attack Lebanon, it will.”Sfeir also said that Lebanon is passing through a difficult phase, which cannot be ignored, according to the patriarch. -NOW Lebanon

Geagea, Moratinos stress on Lebanon’s right to take its own decisions
June 18, 2010 ظLebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos stressed during their meeting in Spain on Friday the Lebanese state’s right to have control over the decision-making process, according to a statement issued by Geagea’s office. Geagea arrived in Madrid from Paris on Thursday as part of a regional tour that kicked off last week. Also, Moratinos briefed Geagea on the EU’s Thursday decision to impose further sanctions on Iran. This comes after the UN Security Council on June 9 slapped broader military and financial sanctions on the Islamic Republic over its suspect nuclear program, despite opposition from Brazil and Turkey. The newly imposed sanctions might increase tension in the Middle East, said the statement, adding, “Which is why the Lebanese government should seize control of the decision-making process.”The statement also said that Moratinos stressed his country backs the sovereignty and independence of Lebanon. Geagea, in turn, asked Moratinos to pressure Israel into leaving Lebanon out of any possible upcoming conflict, the statement added.-NOW Lebanon

Lebanese Politician Speaks Out
June 18, 2010 -
by: Ben Evansky
Discounting recent comments by President Obama's top adviser on counter-terrorism about engaging Hezbollah's "moderate" wing, a key Lebanese parliamentarian tells Fox News that the avowed terror group has no moderate side and that its political force exists only to legalize its armed militia.
Lebanese MP Nadim Gemayel was on a visit to the U.S. last week where he met with administration officials, politicians, U.N. officials and diplomats in talks about disarming Hezbollah. Gemayel is a member of the conservative Kataeb party which is part of the ruling coalition known as the March 14th Coalition.
Gemayel's father, Bashir, was Lebanon's president-elect in 1982 but was assassinated before taking office. Gemayel was only a few months old when his father was murdered. The Gemayel's are viewed as being one of the most influential Christian families in Lebanon.
Fox News: Does Hezbollah have a moderate wing and if so what role does it play?
Nadim Gemayel: From what we know in Lebanon, Hezbollah is one centralized organization with a clear agenda and platform. We haven't seen two messages coming from Hezbollah. People are free to qualify the message as they wish, but objectively, we haven't seen multiple wings inside the movement even though it has expanded institutions.
Fox News: How powerful is Hezbollah in Lebanese politics? Can a Lebanese government govern without them?
NG: Well first it is important to know that Hezbollah is strong because it is a military organization while all other political parties are not. To us from inside the country it is about who represents the Lebanese people not who has most guns and funds. In the last two legislative elections, the March 14 coalition and their allies have won a clear majority of the popular vote. Thus they are supposed to form the cabinet according to the Lebanese constitution. Hezbollah and its allies obtained less seats and thus according to normal democratic practices they were supposed to play the role of the opposition. But the March 14 coalition was compelled to include Hezbollah representatives in the cabinet in what we call in Lebanon, a national unity cabinet. In other words the parliamentary majority was forced by Hezbollah to be included in the cabinet or else.
What Hezbollah is trying to achieve by entering the government is to "legalize" their armed structure although without merging it with the Lebanese official armed forces. The incidents of May 2008, when the Hezbollah militias invaded parts of West Beirut and the districts of Alet and Shuf in Mount Lebanon because of the intention of the Government to extend the sovereignty of the state, were a warning to Lebanese politicians. In other words, at this stage, without international support any Lebanese government cannot govern against the will of a powerful armed group. If Hezbollah would remit its weapons to the Lebanese Army so that Lebanon becomes a normal country, only then the organization can be considered as a normal political party. The fact that an armed force that has members inside the legislative and all other state institutions doesn't mean that it has become a normal political party. It means that this armed force was able to place its members inside the Parliament while still a militia.
Fox News: Does Hezbollah hold influence at the U.N. Security Council since Lebanon now sits on the Security Council?
NG: Any armed group that influences the Lebanese Government inside the country of course can and it is influencing its foreign policy. The United Nations Security Council issued two relevant resolutions calling on all militias to disarm, UN Security Council resolutions 1559 and 1701. If any Lebanese Government wants to implement these resolutions it has two choices. Either proceed with the disarming, and that is impossible in Lebanon, because this armed groups and its allies are stronger than the state. Or the Lebanese Government will have to negotiate with the armed group, and in this case the latter has no interest in disarming. It is no secret that the Lebanese Government with Hezbollah part of it, cannot ask the United Nations for help. In that sense it is a fact that Hezbollah can influence Lebanon's diplomacy including at the United Nations. The fact that Hezbollah's forces threatened the Government in May 2008 to crumble it if it doesn't abide by its views, is the answer to your question.
Fox News: You met with high ranking officials at the United Nations and several missions including the U.S., France, UK and Italy. Did you raise this issue with them? What did they tell you?
NG: Yes we raised the issue of implementing UN resolutions. I asked them how would the UN implement its own resolutions regarding security and sovereignty in the world including regarding Lebanon. They advised Lebanon's Government and its lawmakers to act and call for it. I told them Lebanon cannot call for UN help in this regards because pro-Iranian and pro-Syrian forces on the inside are blocking any move by the Lebanese Government to seek such help. It is like the chicken and the egg. In other words we're not fully free in Lebanon and the international community, the United States must help civil societies to regain freedom.
Fox News: Do you think Syria has been supplying Hezbollah with long-range scuds?
NG: I don't have information or data about this matter. Regarding the missiles, we read, like everyone else, Hezbollah's own statement declaring to the world that they increased its missiles arsenal from 10,000 to tens of thousands of rockets and missiles since 2006. They spoke of ranges that are equal to the SCUD range or even further. So, the militia admits it in public. What we need now, since this is an international matter, is to have the UN send units of observers to the Lebanese Syrian borders and to the districts adjacent to that border to check it out. Remember that when the UN doesn't do its job well, as was the case in Iraq, dramatic consequences can follow. We are working hard on subtracting Lebanon from any conflict that can generate from this crisis.
Fox News: What are the chances of another Hezbollah/Israel war?
NG: The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has one dimension that escapes Lebanon. Hezbollah is affiliated with the leadership of the Iranian revolution. This is what the ideology, doctrine and basic documents of the group says. This is what its leaders claim and this is what the Iranian regime's leaders also say. So, if any clash comes to happen between Israel and Hezbollah, or Iran and the "World", it would create directly a war between Lebanon and Israel which the Lebanese State won't have anything to do with it. It would be against their will. The majority of Lebanese people, from all communities, do not want wars and terrorism and do not want missiles and destruction. The majority of Lebanese want their country out of any conflict, to live in peace and freedom.
Fox News: What is the role of Iran in Lebanon?
They are trying to build influence in this country and add Lebanon to the regional axis they are creating. The growing role of Iran's regime in Lebanon is not accepted by the majority of Lebanese and many Shiite spiritual and political leaders as well as civil society NGOs reject the Iranian influence.
GemayelhezbollahIranIsraelLebanonsyriaTerrorism

MP Gemayel: Jumblat Has Lost His Credibility, His Statements Don't Deserve a Reply
Naharnet/MP Sami Gemayel said on Friday that Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat has lost his credibility before the Lebanese people and himself.
He added at a press conference that Jumblat's statements are not worth responding to.
Addressing granting Palestinian refugees in Lebanon their rights, he said that state funds cannot support them joining the National Social Security Fund.
Furthermore, Gemayel demanded that the international community and Arab states should tackle the issue of the Palestinians in Lebanon through financial aid, suggesting that Arab states and the UNRWA should set up an independent fund to address refugee needs. Beirut, 18 Jun

Gates Defending New Missile System: Iran Could Fire Hundreds Missiles at Us
Manar/18/06/2010 Pentagon chief Robert Gates claimed that US intelligence has shown Iran could launch an attack against Europe with "scores or hundreds" of missiles, prompting major changes to US missile defenses. President Barack Obama in September cited a “mounting danger” from Iran's arsenal of short and medium-range missiles when he announced an overhaul of US missile defense plans. The new program, called the "phased adaptive approach," uses sea and land-based interceptors to protect NATO allies in the region, instead of mainly larger weapons designed to counter long-range missiles. "One of the elements of the intelligence that contributed to the decision on the phased adaptive array was the realization that if Iran were actually to launch a missile attack on Europe, it wouldn't be just one or two missiles or a handful," Gates told a senate hearing on Thursday. "It would more likely be a salvo kind of attack, where you would be dealing potentially with scores or even hundreds of missiles." Top US generals have said the new anti-missile system was meant to guard against a potential salvo of missiles from states such as Iran or North Korea. Gates made the comment when asked by Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss if he supported deploying improved missile defenses, including plans for an upgraded SM-3 missile by 2020, even if Russia objected. Gates said he backed the 10-year plan, despite possible resistance from Moscow, saying the new missile defenses "would give us the ability to protect our troops, our bases, our facilities and our allies in Europe." Gates, along with other top deputies in the Obama administration, appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee to argue for ratification of a new nuclear arms control treaty with Russia, trying to reassure Republican lawmakers the agreement posed no threat to the missile defense program. /Now Lebanon

Sfeir: Aoun No Longer Powerful at Christian Level, Syria-Lebanon Ties Must be Friendly
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir ended an official visit to France with an attack on the alliance between Hizbullah and Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun. "Hizbullah has its own army and receives weapons and financial help from its neighbors," the daily al-Balad quoted Sfeir as saying in Paris. Referring to the Aoun-Hizbullah alliance, Sfeir wondered what benefit it will bring to Christians. "What's the usefulness of this alliance in the Christian arena?" he asked. Sfeir believed Aoun suffered a significant decline in popularity "because of his political ambitions that are far from Christian interests in Lebanon and the region."Aoun "is no longer powerful enough at the Christian level," he said. On Lebanese-Syrian ties, Sfeir stressed that relations between the two countries should be "friendly and that from a neighbor-to-neighbor." "No side should overpower the other," Sfeir emphasized. In separate remarks, Sfeir said Israel would have to think well before launching an attack on Lebanon. "Israel has attacked us (in the past) and failed. Therefore, it has to think very well before repeating the same thing," Sfeir told Asharq radio station. Beirut, 18 Jun 10, 08:40

Murr Rejects Merging Hizbullah Weapons with Army

Naharnet/Defense Minister Elias Murr has reportedly rejected merging Hizbullah weapons with the Lebanese army. Murr's remarks came during a national dialogue session held at Baabda Palace on Thursday. The meeting ended with a decision to postpone talks till Aug. 19. The daily As-Safir on Friday said Murr was responding to Deputy Speaker Farid Makari who suggested merging Hizbullah weapons with the military institution. All-party talks, launched in 2006, are aimed at discussing the thorny issue of Hizbullah weapons as part of a national defense strategy. Makari called for a timetable for placing Hizbullah's arsenal and rocket power under the Lebanese army command. Hizbullah MP Mohammed Raad, in turn, urged National Dialogue leaders to be united with regard to the foundations of a national defense strategy. He also called on participants to refrain from discussing Hizbullah arms individually.
Phalange Party leader Amin Gemayel, for his part, called for separating Lebanese politics and military from regional and international dangers by adopting a neutral strategy.
Gemayel said a proposal about "positive neutrality" is in the works. The idea, he explained, aims at preserving Lebanon's stability on the one hand and guaranteeing its support to Arab causes, particularly the Palestinian conflict, on the other hand. But Druze leader Walid Jumblat blasted Gemayel's offer, calling for the liberation of Shebaa Farms through "resistance."
One dialogue participant told An-Nahar newspaper that the leaders discussed a little bit of everything. He said in remarks published Friday that topics ranged from the defense strategy and the gas and fuel issue to Shebaa Farms and Palestinian refugees. Beirut, 18 Jun 10, 08:11

The road to nowhere
June 17, 2010 /Now Lebanon
FPM leader MP Michel Aoun, Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Marada Movement leader Sleiman Franjieh, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on the sidelines of the last national dialogue session on March 9, 2010. (AFP/Dalati and Nohra)
It was national dialogue time again and, given the absence of former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea – hardly a vote of confidence in the process – this round was another non-event that yielded little or no progress on key issues and ended with a whimper, with President Michel Sleiman adjourning the session until August 19.
The debate on the much-pregnant national defense strategy appears to be going nowhere fast. The majority March 14 bloc wants a practical blueprint that gives the state the final say over all issues of war and peace, including a final resolution on the status of Hezbollah and its ever-increasing arsenal, while the pro-Syrian March 8 opposition, of which Hezbollah is part, is determined to maintain the autonomy of the Resistance in any final agreement.
But how much room is there for genuine debate on an issue that has massive regional implications, given the vested interests of Syria and Iran? It is clear by the words and actions of the opposition – especially Hezbollah, whose weapons and increasingly robust martial posture vis-à-vis Israel are the main bone of contention in the debate – that it is happy to sit back and watch the national dialogue wither and die on the branch.
With its allies in the Syrian regime in the regional ascendency following the forging of a new relationship with Saudi Arabia, and with key seats in Lebanon’s so-called national unity government, Hezbollah has a new lease on life. It controls, directly or indirectly, many of the state institutions; it takes the lead on any perceived threat from Tel Aviv (as we saw last month when it “mobilized” in reaction to Israeli maneuvers); and, judging by the regular fiery rhetoric of its secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, it does not appear to be ready to either relinquish its arms or even accommodate the wishes of those Lebanese who want matters of defense to fall under some kind of state control.
But arguably the most sinister clue that all is not well, or ever was well, with the debate over a national defense strategy was a statement issued by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) on Wednesday. The militant group, which has been allowed to operate training camps in remote (and some not-so-remote) parts of Lebanon for decades, declared that what it called “all sleazy attempts” to disarm Palestinian factions in Lebanon had “failed” and, once again, cited its right to oppose Israel and protect Palestinians living in Lebanon.
Clearly the timing of the statement was not a coincidence, coming as it did on the eve of the national dialogue. In 2006, the first rounds of the national dialogue saw a commitment by all sides to work toward disarming the Palestinian groups operating outside the camps. It is not clear whether that commitment still exists.
Then again the Lebanon of 2006 was not the Lebanon of today. Then, the country may have been reeling from a devastating war, but it still had the glow of optimism created by the 2005 Independence Intifada. Since then, the pro-Syrian opposition has wrestled back the initiative, despite losing in the 2009 parliamentary elections, a ballot that was for all intents and purposes a referendum on Hezbollah and its weapons.
On the same day that the PFLP-GC issued its defiant statement of intent, March 14’s General Secretariat called for the setting of a timeline to achieve the goals of the national dialogue committee – one side arguing with the rifle and the stench of a revolution that died decades ago, and the other proposing peaceful dialogue through the offices of the state.
These, it appears, are the choices in the modern Lebanon.

March 14, the morning after

Michael Young, /June 18, 2010
NOW Lebanon
It was a foregone conclusion that once Saudi Arabia decided to reconcile with Syria in February 2009, the March 14 coalition would soon find itself on its last legs. From that moment on, Saad Hariri’s opposition to Damascus slowly began to dissolve, and with it the glue holding together the multifarious majority.
However, in recent weeks we’ve seen behavior by present or former March 14 leaders that has crossed all previous red lines in its parochialism. The inevitable conclusion is not only that the majority is in disarray, but that there is no majority to speak of anymore.
The most recent example is Walid Jumblatt’s request on Tuesday that parliament fast-track legislation allowing Palestinians to benefit from social security and own property. When Christian deputies from the Kataeb, the Lebanese Forces, and the Aounists asked that the matter be delayed for further study, Jumblatt went on the attack, declaring: “The [political] right everywhere in the world is stupid, and in 62 years [since the Palestinian defeat in 1948] nothing has changed; I’ve never seen more stupid than the Lebanese right!”
Jumblatt’s proposal was pure theater. He knew very well that such a sensitive scheme could not be fast-tracked, but the Druze leader wanted to achieve something else. For Jumblatt, politics has become a perpetual struggle to remain relevant, and the Palestinian issue allowed him to do two things simultaneously: reassert his Arab nationalist and pro-Palestinian bona fides while also momentarily splitting Saad Hariri’s Future Movement and separating the prime minister from his Christian allies in the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb.
In fact, two Christian deputies from Future sided with the Christian parties, while the Future movement in general, along with Hezbollah and Amal, backed Jumblatt’s proposal, because they could not afford politically to take an anti-Palestinian stance. The chaos that Jumblatt engendered allowed him to seize center stage, set the political agenda, and sell a favor to the Syrians, who like nothing more than to see the Lebanese at odds with each other, Christians against Muslims.
The Druze leader also managed to take the limelight away from another Christian, Michel Sleiman, who was still basking in the glow of his audience with Bashar al-Assad in Damascus the same day. The implicit message in Jumblatt’s maneuver was plain: Sleiman should not assume he can take the lead in the Syrian-Lebanese relationship.
But if Walid Jumblatt was able to so easily set a trap for the Christians, that was because he was working on fertile ground. Since the election at the Order of Physicians over two weeks ago, relations between Future and the Lebanese Forces have been strained. Recall that in the second round of voting for the president of the syndicate, the Lebanese Forces refused to withdraw from the race their candidate, Najib Jahshan, and rally to Ghassan Skaff, the candidate supported by the other March 14 groups. This split the vote, allowing the opposition-backed candidate, Sharaf Abou Sharaf, to win.
Various reasons were offered up to explain why Jahshan was kept in the race, but only one was convincing: The Lebanese Forces preferred to allow someone close to the Aounists to head the Order of Physicians rather than Skaff, who, while independent, would have been viewed as beholden to Future. In other words, better a syndicate president perceived as being under full “Christian” control than one seen as being named by the “Sunnis.” And if you have any doubts, note that Sharaf received votes from Lebanese Forces physicians.
This is a far cry from the idealism that some people injected into the March 14 demonstration in 2005, the notion that sectarianism could be transcended in favor of a more modern polity. However, there was a definite logic to Samir Geagea’s actions in the physicians’ vote. The Lebanese Forces leader is making a deliberate bid for leadership of the Christian community and likely believes the Aounist movement will fragment once Michel Aoun departs this vale of tears. Geagea is gambling that he can pick up a good portion of that electorate if he can project himself as a credible champion of Christian interests.
There is also something else. Geagea is not convinced that Hariri will long be able to resist Syrian, and with it Saudi Arabian, demands that the prime minister break with the Lebanese Forces. So Geagea needs to consolidate himself within his own community as security.
All this explains why Geagea preferred to side with the Aounists in the physicians’ elections. He can no longer afford to be depicted as Saad Hariri’s junior partner. It is also why the Lebanese Forces joined with the Aounists and the Kataeb in initially reacting negatively to Jumblatt’s proposals on the Palestinians. And it explains why Geagea has played up his visits to Cairo, Paris and Madrid for all they are worth, to burnish his image as a leader with regional and international stature – if also to protect himself from Syria’s efforts to stifle him politically.
Some will interpret these gestures by Jumblatt and Geagea as self-centered and partisan, therefore of particular delight to those in Syria or Tehran, or even in Beirut’s southern suburbs, whose primary concern is to prevent the emergence of a unified force that might defend Lebanon’s sovereignty. March 14, which claimed to be such a force, held its own for a time, even if its followers made it more interesting than its leaders. But the leaders are now fully in charge, their interests are wildly divergent, and 2005 is a distant memory.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut. His book, The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle (Simon & Schuster), has just been published.

If Nasrallah is killed

Nicholas Lowry
June 17, 2010/Now Lebanon
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on a public appearance before he went into hiding during the July War. (AFP photo/Hassan Ammar)
In the immediate aftermath of the February 1992 killing of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Abbas Moussawi, Israeli leaders were jubilant.
A day before the assassination, military and political officials were struggling to explain a stunning lapse in security: On Friday the 14th, Palestinian fighters had managed to infiltrate an army base in northern Israel, hack to death three sleeping soldiers, and escape undetected.
The Israeli public’s outrage over the ineptitude demonstrated by their military in “The Night of the Pitchforks,” as the incident was dubbed, would not last the weekend. On the 16th, as Moussawi was being driven from a public appearance at a rally in the town of Jibchit, near the Israeli occupied-zone of southern Lebanon, Israeli Air Force Apache helicopters fired at the Hezbollah chief’s convoy, killing the 38-year-old Moussawi along with his wife and young child.
“This was an operation that, in my opinion, was proof that when Israel Defense Forces are determined to do something, they do it beautifully,” Uri Lubrani, Israel’s coordinator for activities in Lebanon, told international press agency UPI at the time.
But whatever the tactical skill of the operation, Moussawi’s killing can be read as a textbook example of the boomerang effect such assassinations can produce.
For one, Moussawi’s death spurred an escalation of violence in the South, with Hezbollah firing more rockets than ever before at Israel. Then, almost a month to the day after Moussawi was killed, Israel suffered the deadliest attack to date against its diplomatic missions, when a suicide bomber drove an explosive-laden truck into the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aries. Israel quickly placed blame for the attack on Hezbollah, though the Party of God has always denied responsibility for the explosion.
But it was Moussawi’s own successor, Hezbollah’s current secretary general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who perhaps most clearly demonstrates how the consequences of assassination are not necessarily to the benefit of the aggressing party. Taking over Hezbollah’s top position shortly after Moussawi’s death, Nasrallah told the official Iranian news agency IRNA, "The coming days will prove that the assassination of Moussawi was the biggest mistake of the Zionist regime ever since its illegitimate creation.” It took more than days, but given the events of the nearly two decades since Nasrallah took over the reigns of Hezbollah, his prediction was not entirely hyperbole.
Arguably the most powerful man in Lebanon and widely hailed as the only Arab leader to successfully withstand the might of the Israeli military, Nasrallah lives under a more intense threat of assassination than anyone outside of Waziristan. Nasrallah’s public appearances in the four years since the July War can be counted on one hand; he addresses his followers and the world by television. His location is the most closely-guarded secret in Lebanon.
A reminder of the reason for that secrecy, if any were needed, came earlier this month, when unnamed Israeli sources told the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida that Israel was making “great efforts” to monitor Nasrallah’s movements and that twice in recent months it had managed to locate his position, first at a Hezbollah security building in Beirut’s southern suburbs and again during Nasrallah’s trip to Syria in February.
The source claimed Israel called off the first strike due to the presence of a large number of children. But that contention was met with skepticism in Lebanon.
Qassem Kassir, a journalist at the Lebanese daily An-Nahar who studies Islamic movements, said that he doubted “if Israel had or has the chance to kill Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah that it would let that opportunity go. [Israel] would consider [his death] a major achievement that would erase all past failures.”
While the assassination of Nasrallah could have profound repercussions, whether it would deal a crippling blow to Hezbollah is open to question, given the highly institutionalized nature of the party, said Lockman Slim, the director of Hayya Bina, a Lebanese civil society organization based in the Hezbollah-dominated southern suburbs of Beirut.
Slim, for his part, questioned whether Israel really was actively trying to kill Nasrallah.
Citing the 2008 assassination of Imad Mugniyah, Hezbollah’s military chief, Slim said that “that those who could kill Mugniyah should presumably be able to get Nasrallah, but, in this sense liquidating Nasrallah is not [their immediate intention]… With Nasrallah, who they have been fighting for years, they can know what his reactions are; they know his psychological profile, so from their perspective it is better to keep someone you know than someone you don’t.”
Still, Nasrallah’s death would likely have some effect on Hezbollah given how long he has been in charge. Kassir said that while it is unclear what the direct impact Nasrallah’s death would have on the party, “usually if Hezbollah [undergoes] a strike, it adapts quickly to the strike, in terms of organization and politics. But if the assassination happens it will not pass without a reaction; it will for sure cause an explosion on the Lebanese-Israeli front, and it might not only be confined to Lebanon – it will extend to include Palestine, for example.”
Lebanon has seen more than its share of assassinations in the last decade, some of which have reshaped the whole political landscape, such as the killing of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. While the reverberations of Hariri’s assassination were far-reaching for Lebanon – leading as they did to the withdrawal of Syrian forces from the country after three decades of occupation, and the divide between the March 8 and March 14 coalitions that has shaped Lebanese politics in the years since – the killing of Nasrallah could potentially spark a full war.
As Kassir commented, the 1992 Moussawi assassination “led to an explosion on the southern Lebanese border, but in the case of Sayyed Nasrallah I believe that it would lead to… war.”
In such a scenario, Kassir said, Hezbollah would respond to Nasrallah’s death with an attack on Israel. At that point, “Israel for sure will not stand idle; it will attack all of Lebanon,” and “military reactions will widen to include the region.” Nasrallah has shown in life that he, more than anyone else in Lebanon, has the power to plunge the country into war. That power may extend to his death as well.

EU leaders agree to impose tougher sanctions on Iran oil and gas
Friday, June 18, 2010
Luke Baker and David Brunnstrom
Reuters /BRUSSELS: European Union leaders agreed tighter sanctions against Iran on Thursday, including measures to block oil and gas investment and curtail its refining and natural gas capability. The measures, which go well beyond those approved by the United Nations on June 10, are designed to pressure Tehran to return to talks on its uranium enrichment program which Western states believe aims to produce nuclear weapons.
Russia sharply criticized the EU and the United States for imposing additional sanctions on top of those that Moscow agreed to support in the UN Security Council last week.
“We are extremely disappointed that neither the United States nor the European Union is heeding our calls to refrain from such steps,” Russian news agencies quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying. The EU sanctions, which could come into force within weeks, will focus on trade, banking and insurance, transport including shipping and air cargo, and key sectors of the gas and oil industry. The energy sector sanctions will prohibit “new investment, technical assistance and transfers of technologies, equipment and services related to these areas, in particular related to refining, liquefaction and liquefied natural gas technology,” the heads of state and government said in their statement, issued during an EU summit in Brussels.
The measures, drawn up in discussions over the past week, go beyond what some diplomats had foreseen and are likely to put strong financial pressure on Iran, which is the world’s fifth largest crude oil exporter but has little refining capability.
But diplomats acknowledged that the strength and effects of the sanctions would depend on the work done by EU foreign ministers over the next month to work out how they will be imposed and to ensure compliance. “It’s a question of scope,” said one diplomat. “The measures in principle are good, they are hard-hitting. But it will depend what is worked out on implementation in the next month, that will determine how much of an impact they will have.”
Another diplomat described the measures as “potentially a big stick,” but it would depend on how it was wielded when the time came.
In their statement, the EU heads of state said time was running out on Iran and further action needed to be taken. “The European Council deeply regrets that Iran has not taken the many opportunities which have been offered to it to remove the concerns of the international community over the nature of the Iranian nuclear program,” the EU leaders said. “Under these circumstances, new restrictive measures have become inevitable.” Diplomats said some EU states, notably Germany which has large investments in Iran’s oil and gas sector, had concerns about strengthening the sanctions, but in the event all EU members moved quickly behind the strongly worded statement. Iran denies its nuclear program is aimed at producing weapons, saying it is for energy and other peaceful purposes. The EU steps coincided with efforts by the US Congress to draw up its own set of additional punitive measures against Iran designed to add bite to last week’s UN sanctions package, parts of which were watered down as a result of Russian and Chinese opposition.

What does Syria want from Lebanon?

By The Daily Star /Friday, June 18, 2010
BEIRUT: After discussing Lebanese perceptions of Syrian ambitions in Lebanon last week, the Issam Fares Center on Wednesday held a talk to highlight Syria’s point of view.
At the talk, “What does Syria want from Lebanon? – a Syrian perspective,” Samir Altaqi, director of the Orient Center for International Studies in Damascus, and Syrian economic expert Samir Saifan, argued that friendly relations were of great importance to both neighbors.
Altaqi highlighted Syria’s strategic position in regional affairs, noting the recent rapprochement with European states and the US. There has been a geostrategic shift in the arena of international struggle from Europe to the Middle East and Western Asia, he said. The shift now focuses around the modern fight for natural resources and the policing of their safe supplying routes. Altaqi, who is also a cardiologist, added that following the US-led wars on Afghanistan and Iraq, American presence in the Middle East was mainly aimed at assigning regional powers to carry out their interests in the region. He called on Syria to have a strong standing in the region and to enhance its regional alliances to avoid becoming an arena where regional and international powers fought out their battles. The withdrawal of Syrian troops in 2005 cured Damascus of many of its ills, he added, noting that no Syrian citizen wished to return to the bilateral relations prior to the withdrawal. Altaqi said that both countries were looking to initiate a new phase of relations and that chances to strengthen such relations had to begin with coordinating their strategic regional views. A common Lebanese vision of Beirut’s “higher interests” could contribute to improving bilateral relations and could enable the Syrian government to enjoy a better relationship with the Lebanese, Altaqi argued. He said a stronger Lebanese state was in the interest of Syria. Eltaqi highlighted the ongoing threats to Syria emanating from Lebanon’s borders, noting the dangers posed by the country’s delicate sectarian balance and political differences. The fact that Lebanese-Syrian relations had not been institutionalized when Syria was in Lebanon was a grave error, he said. Saifan meanwhile recognized the numerous errors in Syrian policy in Lebanon over the last 30 decades, highlighting mutual “suffering” inflicted upon both the Syrian and Lebanese people. Following the withdrawal of Syrian troops in 2005, Damascus’ key aspiration was for Lebanon to emerge as a strong state that was friendly to Hizbullah goals, he said. Saifan argued that bilateral ties were being perceived in paradoxical ways. There were those who merely focused on the negative aspects of Syrian-Lebanese relations, and others who advocated closer diplomatic relations. The economist likened relations between the two countries to a Christian husband and wife that are unable to seek a divorce. He noted that despite the numerous bi-lateral agreements, pragmatism remained very limited. – The Daily Star

Heed the signals from Syria, Israel

Friday, June 18, 2010 /Editorial/Daily Star
A meeting this week of Israeli Labor Party officials has in effect issued Ehud Barak an ultimatum: get serious about generating a peace policy by the end of the summer: otherwise, the party should bolt Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition. Senior Labor figures like Benjamin Ben-Eliezer and Isaac Herzog have pressed Barak to advance the ultimatum, in turn, to Labor’s partners in the government, in the form of its top seven ministers. The message: Israel needs a daring political initiative to exit the impasse caused by the government’s latest outrage, the deadly attack on the Mavi Marmara. Meanwhile, Syrian President Bashar Assad told the BBC this week that Israel’s “pyromaniac” government is set on launching a new military conflict in the Middle East. Assad says the deadly attack on the Gaza aid flotilla marked a turning-point, as the clearest indication yet of how the government in Tel Aviv opposes engaging in any meaningful peace moves. One can read much into the timing of these coinciding developments, but one thing is clear. Both sides – senior figures in the Labor Party, and the person at the head of the regime in Syria – are pointing to the same incident, the Freedom Flotilla massacre, as a signal that things have gone too far.
The ultimatum to produce peace, by the Israelis, and the warning of a coming conflagration, by the Syrians, should naturally register in Washington. However, the White House has a full plate. The BP oil spill is sapping much of the administration’s time, and more importantly, there is a November deadline approaching: President Barack Obama has less than four months to improve his team’s performance, in time for congressional mid-term elections. The tenor of the second half of his term, and the possibility of obtaining another, hinge on this poll.
Meanwhile, the American administration’s headline-grabbing confrontation with Iran will continue to play out in the wake of the recent United Nations sanctions vote.
Tehran isn’t facing a unified front; there’s a divergence in the Russian and Chinese positions and the situation is certainly fluid, as the Iranian regime, or presidency, appears to march to its own drummer. While Iraq and Afghanistan-Pakistan provide still other diversions for the White House, in the “traditional” Middle East, the latest pronouncements coming out of Syria and Israel signal that things are heating up here, to a dangerous degree. And when domestic politics in Israel moves toward confrontation, we can expect the government to take steps to remain in power. We might experience a cool summer, followed by a heated fall and winter, but in any event, we must except “something” from Israel in the near future, whether it’s a positive move, in the form of sincere peacemaking, or a negative one, and we all know what those are like.

Israel's Barak warns Lebanese Cabinet over Gaza aid fleet

By Agence France Presse (AFP) and The Daily Star
Friday, June 18, 2010
BEIRUT: Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned the Lebanese government on Thursday that it will be responsible for any Lebanese ship heading to the besieged Gaza Strip.
Responding to reports that two Lebanese ships carrying human rights activists will be leaving in the next few days to bring medical and children’s supplies to Gaza, Barak said Israel would not allow the vessels to reach their destination. Addressing the Lebanese government, Barak said: “You are responsible for the ships leaving Lebanese ports with a clear and known intention of trying to break the naval cordon on Gaza.” The defense minister, who is a former Israeli prime minister, also said the Lebanese government would be held to account for prohibiting the ships from loading “weapons, military equipment, ammunition, explosives and anything similar that could lead to a violent and dangerous confrontation.” Earlier this week, a group of Lebanese women said they would be sailing to Gaza in the coming days to deliver medical and children’s supplies. “We are all independent women who believe in breaking the siege on Gaza,” said Samar Hajj, who is coordinating the trip. Israel has maintained a four-year siege on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip, preventing much needed medical, development and food supplies from getting in. “This has nothing to do with Hizbullah, even though it is an honor for us to be supporters of the resistance,” said Hajj, dismissing claims that the aid ship was affiliated to the Shiite political party. Around 50 Lebanese and foreign women have signed up for the trip on board the cargo ship “Mariam,” Hajj said. Other pro-Palestinian activists in Lebanon have announced they are planning a separate aid ship to Gaza, carrying educational supplies and journalists. The planned trips come in the wake of Israel’s May 31 attack on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla that left nine Turkish rights activists dead. – AFP, with The Daily Star

Lebanon inks 18 deals to boost ties with Egypt

By Nafez Kawas
Daily Star correspondent
Friday, June 18, 2010
BEIRUT: Lebanon and Egypt inked 18 bilateral agreements on Thursday in the sectors of economy, trade, transport, environment, youth and sports and society.
“Egypt considers Lebanon a strong partner, but let’s face it; our cooperation did not fulfill all its ends,” said Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Nazif during the 7th edition of the Higher Lebanese-Egyptian Committee held at the Grand Serail.
He highlighted the importance of bilateral cooperation in the economic field, in light of the global financial crisis. Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Nazif discussed means to protect Arab economies and promote Arab institutions. Nazif and the accompanying delegation arrived in Beirut Thursday afternoon. During a joint news conference, Hariri said talks touched upon regional developments and the stalled peace process. Both Hariri and Nazif slammed Israel’s siege on the Gaza strip and the building of settlements in the West Bank.
They also hoped that Palestinian factions would reconcile. Hariri told reporters that the meeting discussed the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war with Israel. “We also tackled Lebanon’s role at the UN Security Council and our role in communicating Arab interests to the international community,” he said. Lebanon is one of 10 non-permanent members of the Security Council. In May, Lebanon abstained from voting on new sanctions against Iran, stirring a heated domestic debate.
On Wednesday, Lebanese and Egyptian ministers met at the Grand Serail to discuss bilateral ties as well as areas of cooperation between the two countries. The delegation of Egyptian ministers was headed by International Cooperation Minister Faeza Abu al-Naga, while the Lebanese one was headed by acting Economy and Trade Minister Adnan Qassar.
One of the main items on the agenda of this week’s meetings of the Higher Lebanese-Egyptian Committee was the follow-up on a project to supply Lebanon with natural gas.
Nazif said the project was put into effect last November. “Since then we have supplied the Deir Ammar power plant with 30 million cubic foot of gas on a daily basis,” Nazif said.
Other items on the agenda included increasing the number of bilateral investments and trade. Hariri said the meeting also discussed means to bolster tourism in both countries.
Later on Thursday, Hariri held a dinner banquet for Nazif that was attended by an array of political and social figures at the Grand Serail.

National Dialogue puts off defense talks until August 19
Gemayel, Jumblatt spar over right of Resistance
By The Daily Star and Agence France Presse (AFP)
Friday, June 18, 2010
BEIRUT: Rival Lebanese politicians on Thursday postponed until August 19 talks on a national defense strategy that would incorporate the arms of Hizbullah, a presidential statement said.
“The dialogue committee continued talks on a defense strategy and agreed on August 19 as the date for the next session,” a statement said, as the politicians failed again to reach an accord.
The session was missed by Future Movement bloc head and former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea and Economy Minister Mohammad Safadi, who were all traveling abroad. The defense strategy talks were launched in 2006 and have been repeatedly adjourned because of successive political crises and the thorny issue of Hizbullah’s weapons. During the session, Deputy Speaker Farid Makari called for a “timetable for the process of placing Hizbullah’s military and rocket power under the command of the Lebanese army.” Makari, who is part of the parliamentary majority, urged Hizbullah to openly declare that its weapons aimed “exclusively to defend Lebanon against any aggression and are not tied to other axes or alliances. “Lebanon’s current defense power could turn into a risk factor if perceived as part of the wider struggle between Iran and the West,” Makari warned in a transcript released by his office. For his part, Hizbullah’s Loyalty to Resistance bloc leader Mohammad Raad called on participants to unite with regard to the foundations of a national defense strategy and refrain from discussing Hizbullah’s weapons separately.
Meanwhile, Phalange Party leader Amin Gemayel called for distancing Lebanon politically and militarily from regional and international dangers through the adoption of a neutral strategy.
Gemayel added that he was in the process of formulating a comprehensive proposal about “positive neutrality” that would preserve Lebanon’s stability on the one hand and guarantee its support to Arab causes, particularly the Palestinian one. However, Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt slammed Gemayel’s proposal and called for the liberation of Shebaa Farms through the resistance. “Jumblatt rejected earlier in Parliament that Shebaa Farms are Lebanese territories and added they were Syrian lands; thus he dropped the resistance’s right to liberate them,” Gemayel said in response to Jumblatt. Thursday’s session comes amid heightened tension in the region over allegations that Hizbullah was stockpiling sophisticated rockets smuggled through Syria. However, national dialogue talks did not tackle disarming Palestinian factions outside Lebanon’s 12 refugee camps.
In the last rounds of dialogue prior to the 2006 July War, Lebanese leaders agreed to disarm Palestinian groups outside refugee camps and organize arm possession within camps to be restricted to certain Palestinian factions. The army does not enter the camps by long-standing convention. However, no practical steps were taken since then. Armed Palestinian groups in the Bekaa are known for their affiliation to Damascus and have recently tied the surrender of their weapons to granting Palestinian refugees their civil rights.
On the sidelines of the national dialogue session, attendants discussed the issue of the Palestinian refugees’ civil rights ahead of the resumption next week of discussions by the Lebanese-Palestinian committee. On Tuesday, Parliament saw fierce debates over the amendment of labor, social security and foreign property ownership laws, to the benefit of Palestinian refugees.
Over 400,000 Palestinian refugees live in Lebanon in refugee camps across the Lebanese territories. Many are the descendants of refugees who fled Palestine in 1948, following the establishment of the state of Israel. Palestinians in Lebanon are denied major civil rights, including ownership of property, access to employment and social security services.
Christian parties have opposed the amendments in the past while expressing fears in Tuesday’s parliamentary session that rushing the amendments was a prelude for the naturalization of Palestinians in Lebanon, which could alter the demographic balance in favor of a Sunni Muslim majority. On another note, Speaker Berri called for the maritime border demarcation between Israel and Lebanon to face Israeli ambitions in oil fields with Lebanese waters. In response to Berri, Premier Saad Hariri said that the Cabinet was in the process of formulating a plan to follow up on the issue. – The Daily Star, with AFP

Kuwait asks Lebanon not to hand over detainee to Iraq

By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Friday, June 18, 2010
KUWAIT CITY: Kuwait has asked Lebanon not to hand over to Iraq a Kuwaiti citizen serving a life term in Beirut for alleged Al-Qaeda links, a Foreign Ministry official said on Thursday.
The ministry has expressed “through official contacts the state of Kuwait’s total rejection of the extradition of citizen Mohammad al-Dossari to any side other than Kuwait,” said the official, cited by the state news agency KUNA. According to Lebanese media, a military court in January sentenced Dossari and two men from Syria and Tajikistan to life in jail on charges of belonging to Al-Qaeda and plotting attacks on UN peacekeepers in Lebanon. Dossari was arrested at Beirut’s Rafik Hariri International airport in December while trying to enter the country on a fake Moroccan passport. In May, a Kuwaiti court tried and acquitted Dossari and seven other Kuwaitis on charges of plotting to attack a major US army base in the Gulf state. Dossari and another suspect were tried in absentia. The issue of Dossari was raised by Islamist MP Mohammad Hayef who said the Lebanese government had agreed to an Iraqi request to extradite Dossari to Iraq to face trial on terrorism-related charges. – AFP