LCCC
ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِJuly
21/2010
Bible Of
the Day
Psalm 27:1/The LORD is my
light and my salvation; whom shall I fear? The LORD is the stronghold of my
life; of whom shall I be afraid?
Today's Inspiring Thought: Whom Shall I Fear?/Naharnet
Children aren't the only ones afraid of the dark. Many adults fear darkness. In
fact, life presents us with more than one kind of darkness. Besides the
blackness of night, darkness can represent a lack of understanding, an absence
of joy, the threat of danger, instability, vulnerability, and any number of fear
inducing circumstances
Free Opinions, Releases,
letters, Interviews & Special Reports
Losing the Scent in South
Lebanon/By Jonathan Spyer/July 20/10
Short-term
interests occupy American-Israeli relations/By: Yossi Alpher/July 20/10
Turkey plays out of its
league/Tony
Badran/ July
20/10
Latest News
Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for July 20/10
US brainstorms over STL
indictment/Now Lebanon
Hariri's Assassination to Be
Reenacted at Military Base in Bordeaux Next Fall/Naharnet
Ashkenazi: Israel to Move into
Lebanese Populated Areas If Need Be/Naharnet
Preventing the Next Lebanon War/Wall
Street Journal
Sleiman set to begin meetings to
defuse political tension/Now Lebanon
UN peacekeepers in Lebanon deny acting timidly/Los
Angeles Times
Syria bans full Islamic face veils at universities/The
Associated Press
Conference held by Islamist party raises
concerns/Daily
Star
Israel to deploy new anti-missile
system in November/AFP
Report: 5000 Hezbollah fighters
along the Lebanese-Israeli borders/Ya
Libnan
Baroud Remains Quiet for Now but will Answer Nasrallah's Questions Through
Official Channels/Naharnet
Report: Bellemare Said
Army Won't Arrest Hizbullah Member in Case of Involvement in Hariri Murder/Naharnet
Ex-U.S. Official: It Was
Obvious Syrians Were Not Behind Hariri Killing/Naharnet
Baroud Hands over to
Hariri Report on Qazzi: Telecom Ministry Delayed Database of Calls/Naharnet
New Israeli Anti-missile
System Ready for Deployment in November/Naharnet
Berri from Geneva: UNIFIL
Part of Our People and Army/Naharnet
Kidnappers of Lebanese Man
in Benin Ask for Ransom/Naharnet
Hariri Returns to Beirut
after Talks with Assad, Turkish FM/Naharnet
Jumblat Says Regional
Circumstances Similar to those of 1982: U.S. Cover for Israeli War Starting to
Emerge/Naharnet
Kataeb Calls for Keeping
STL Away from Lebanese, Regional Conflicts/Naharnet
Human Rights Watch Urges
UAE to Allow Appeals for Expelled Lebanese, Gazans/Naharnet
12 Policemen Hurt as ISF
Truck Overturns on Dinniyeh Road/Naharnet
1 Killed Near Masnaa, 2 Others Die
on Sebline Road Traffic Accidents/Naharnet
US brainstorms over STL
indictment
July 20, 2010 /As-Safir newspaper reported on Tuesday that several US think
tanks looked into the possible repercussions on Lebanon should the Special
Tribunal for Lebanon (STL)’s indictment name Hezbollah as being involved in the
2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The daily quoted an
unnamed US source as saying that the court’s indictment will be issued in two
rounds between September and the end of the year. The indictments will name
high-ranking Hezbollah officials in the ex-premier’s murder, added As-Safir.
However, no indictment would be issued against the party’s leadership, referring
to Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, said the daily. The
source also said that “it has been clear for some time now that the Syrians were
not behind the assassination. But they probably knew about it.”
-NOW Lebanon
Hezbollah to seek Syria’s
support after STL indictment
July 20, 2010 /A top Lebanese official who spoke on condition of anonymity told
Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Anbaa on Tuesday that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL)’s
indictment will include Hezbollah officials, which, he added, would force the
party to turn to Syria for damage control. According to various media reports,
the STL – which is probing the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik
Hariri – is to issue its indictment before the end of the year. The source also
said that if Hezbollah members are to be indicted, “this means that Damascus’
influence on Hezbollah will increase significantly.” -NOW Lebanon
Michel Aoun in his capacity as a “popular organization”
Hazem Saghiyeh, July 19, 2010 /Now Lebanon
In semi-totalitarian and totalitarian regimes, the “masses” or “popular
organizations” urge the leader to take the initiative and settle issues. They
warn him against dangers and conspiracies he may have overlooked and call on him
to take speedy action to crush the conspirators and preserve “the people’s
gains.” Hence, voices, shouts and banners are raised by organizations of
peasants, workers, students, women, etc. warning the leader against yielding to
his humanitarian dispositions, mercy and compassion by overlooking or being
lenient with the major conspiracy and those behind it.
The leader actually never overlooks these details and never slackens when
dealing with them, and he always has an insatiable appetite to “crush the
conspirators.” However, every play has its plot and every behavior calls for a
proper pretext, such as the leader’s saying: Due to the pressure exerted on me
by the people and popular organizations, I am compelled to take this or that
initiative.
This is exactly what General Michel Aoun has done recently: play the role of
popular organizations. According to As-Safir’s July 17 edition, he got
“information” from “Western diplomatic sources” and recently transmitted them in
substance to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah Secretary General
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah briefed some allies on them, including
Speaker Nabih Berri and MP Sleiman Franjieh, during the prolonged meeting with
the latter over dinner the night before last.
Sources told As-Safir that Aoun expressed his concern regarding a potential
dramatic scenario in which the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, Israel and Lebanese
domestic issues are overlapping. This scenario would be to provide the adequate
domestic political environment for the STL’s indictment through the theory of
“the undisciplined group.” This goes along with domestic tensions among the
Lebanese, and between the Lebanese and the Palestinians. When the indictment is
issued, it would trigger the countdown to an extensive Israeli military action,
thus trapping the Resistance between Israeli fire and domestic strife. The
Resistance’s supporters would thus be caught in the crossfire. Aoun expressed
his concerns that the indictment and the Israeli aggression would come alongside
new action undertaken by military groups domestically, especially on the
Christian level, to impose a new status quo in Christian areas. At the same
time, Aoun went on, some extremist groups, especially within the Palestinian
camps, would draw the outline of new realities in some communities. The strife
project in Lebanon would, thus, “be open to several possibilities.”
Here comes the lustful moment where Aoun’s and As-Safir’s “information” seem to
concur:
Given these factors, Aoun asked Hezbollah to be ready for strife, starting with
a review of the current cabinet lineup, since such a cabinet will not be able to
confront strife given the existence of an influent party within it, one that is
betting on strife and perhaps even playing a role in covering it. Aoun addressed
Nasrallah in those terms: “They want to kill you again, Sayyed … And it is
forbidden for you to defend yourselves. A certain Lebanese party is still
betting on a new Israeli war. Therefore, I advise you to change the rules of the
game.”
The author of these lines apologies to the readers for this lengthy quote, but
the quoted sections are worth knowing by heart. Indeed, they are probably the
most important Lebanese statement in the culture of “popular organizations” when
they urge a leader to take action, knowing that he lacks neither the will nor
the determination to do so.
**This article is a translation of the original, which was published on the NOW
Arabic site on Monday July 19, 2010
Hariri's Assassination to Be Reenacted at Military Base in Bordeaux Next Fall
Naharnet/The assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri will be reenacted at a
military base in the French city of Bordeaux next fall to allow international
investigators a glimpse of the bombing at the Beirut seafront on February 14,
2005, security sources told the French daily Le Figaro. Official sources at the
Special Tribunal for Lebanon also confirmed to An Nahar newspaper Le Figaro's
report. As Safir daily said Tuesday that earlier this year international
investigators carried out a similar reenactment of the killing with 1,300
kilograms of explosives using 3-D technology . The reenactment in Bordeaux will
help investigators compare the explosion sound waves, the crater and the amount
of explosives in the Mitsubishi van with those of the crime scene. As Safir said
explosives experts and investigators from the office of STL Prosecutor Daniel
Bellemare will attend the event. However, it is not known if Bellemare himself
will be there. The reenactment is an indication that investigation has reached
technical conclusions, the newspaper said, adding that the prosecutor now needs
to back up his findings about those involved in Hariri's assassination. Beirut,
20 Jul 10,
Ashkenazi: Israel to Move into Lebanese Populated Areas If Need Be
Naharnet/Israeli army chief Gabi Ashkenazi said Tuesday that the Jewish state is
ready to attack Hizbullah in populated areas if the need arises. "Hizbullah is
consolidating its presence in inhabited areas where the United Nations Interim
Force in Lebanon can't discover weapons," Ashkenazi told Israel radio while on a
visit to Rome. "We will move in these areas if need be," he said. Ashkenazi
reiterated that Israel was "ready for all possibilities" although he said the
situation on the border is currently calm. Earlier this month, the Israeli
military published a series of aerial photographs of south Lebanon showing what
it says is evidence of Hizbullah stockpiling weapons in towns and villages near
the border. The images and maps show what the military says are bunkers and arms
caches located in the middle of al-Khiam village, only four kilometers from the
border. Beirut, 20 Jul 10,
Ex-U.S. Official: It Was Obvious Syrians Were Not Behind Hariri Killing
Naharnet/A former high-level U.S. official has said that Washington was lately
aware that no Syrian stood behind the assassination of ex-Premier Saad Hariri.
"It was lately obvious to us that the Syrians were not behind the assassination.
However, they probably knew about it," the former official told As Safir daily.
Asked about the political intentions of Hizbullah, the official said: "We don't
know yet. We have thought about many scenarios." Another U.S. official told As
Safir that Special Tribunal for Lebanon Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare is routinely
visiting Washington to ask in vain for U.S. financial assistance. The Obama
administration wants to distance itself from the STL in order not to affect its
operations, he said. Beirut, 20 Jul 10,
Sleiman set to begin meetings to defuse political tension
July 20, 2010/ President Michel Sleiman will kick off on Tuesday a series of
meetings with all political leaders in an attempt to defuse political tension
that arose in the past few days from Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah’s speech on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), As-Safir newspaper
quoted an unnamed ministerial source close to Sleiman as saying. This comes
after Nasrallah accused in a speech on Friday the STL of being an “Israeli
project” designed to target Hezbollah by stirring up sectarian strife in
Lebanon. His speech has since drawn harsh criticisms mainly from March 14 MPs
and politicians, with some saying the speech fueled sectarian tension in the
country. Media reports have said that the tribunal’s indictment will be issued
before the end of 2010. Also, there are reports that some Hezbollah members
could be named in the indictment. -NOW Lebanon
Baroud Remains Quiet for Now
but will Answer Nasrallah's Questions Through Official Channels
Naharnet/Interior Minister Ziad Baroud on Tuesday remained quiet over the
controversy that erupted following Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's
remarks over the spy case.
"This issue is linked to security forces and I will not spread info and become
part of the bickering," Baroud told LBC TV network. "Nasrallah has the right to
ask the question he wants and the way he wants and the government has the right
to choose the most suitable way to answer him," the minister said. He told LBC
he will propose the issue for discussion during the next cabinet session and the
appropriate answers will come through official channels and not through the
media. Last week the Hizbullah secretary-general wondered during a speech
whether the Internal Security Forces' Intelligence Bureau knew about
telecommunications spy Charbel Qazzi before his arrest by the Army Intelligence.
"The issue is sensitive, technical and also political. That's why I can't answer
it alone. I am part of the government and I handed over a special report to
Premier Saad Hariri last night," Baroud told LBC. He said the ISF was making
strong efforts to unveil spy networks. Beirut, 20 Jul 10,
1 Killed Near Masnaa, 2 Others Die on Sebline Road Traffic Accidents
Naharnet/One person was killed and several others were injured on Tuesday when a
truck rammed into at least 3 vehicles near the Masnaa border checkpoint in
eastern Lebanon.
The National News Agency said seven people, including a Lebanese police officer
and a Saudi were among the injured. It identified the dead person as the truck
driver, Syrian national Ahmed Ayman al-Nabulsi. Voice of Lebanon radio station
said, however, that the dead man was a Saudi citizen. In a separate incident, a
Syrian and a Lebanese were killed when their pickup rammed into two trucks on
the Sebline-Wadi al-Zayneh road. VDL said Syrian Mohammed al-Kerdi and Lebanese
Ali al-Khatib died when they hit the trucks, one of them loaded with cement.
Beirut, 20 Jul 10,
New Israeli Anti-missile System
Ready for Deployment in November
Naharnet/Israel will deploy in November its anti-missile system designed to
combat threats from the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, the defense ministry said on
Monday. "The Iron Dome interceptor, in conjunction with air force and
anti-aircraft systems, successfully downed a large number of threats in fully
operational mode," the ministry said in statement.
"The first two batteries will become operational in November 2010," it said
adding that "the defense ministry will soon place orders for additional
batteries." The system is designed to intercept short-range rockets and
artillery shells, of which Hamas and Hizbullah have fired thousands at Israel in
the past. The system is expected to be first deployed along the border of
Hamas-run Gaza from where a daily barrage of home-made rockets fired at the
Jewish state prompted Israel to launch a devastating 22-day offensive on
December 27, 2008.
It will then be deployed on Israel's border with Lebanon, where Hizbullah fired
some 4,000 rockets into northern Israel during a 2006 war. Israel believes
Hizbullah now has an arsenal of some 40,000 rockets. Defense Minister Ehud Barak
praised the developers for the short timeframe in which they had managed to make
the system operational.
"We will act to actively deploy the batteries in the field as soon as possible,"
he said in the statement. In May, U.S. President Barack Obama asked Congress to
approve giving Israel 205 million dollars to develop the system, on top of the
billions of dollars in aid it gives Israel each year. The Iron Dome will join
the Arrow long-range ballistic missile defense system in an ambitious
multi-layered program to protect Israeli cities from rockets and missiles fired
from Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, Syria and Iran. A third system specifically aimed
at countering medium-range missiles is still in development.(AFP) Beirut, 20 Jul
10,
Kidnappers of Lebanese Man in Benin Ask for Ransom
Naharnet/Gunmen have kidnapped a Lebanese man identified as Abdel Rida al-Duhaini
in the West African country of Benin asking for a 30,000 dollar ransom. A police
source said al-Duhaini, 33, was kidnapped by four gunmen while he was on his way
home. He works in the trade of cars. The kidnappers, who were making calls from
Nigerian phone lines, asked for a 50,000 dollar ransom. However, they agreed to
accept 30,000 dollars after negotiations, the source said. Beirut, 20 Jul 10,
Jumblat Says Regional Circumstances Similar to those
of 1982: U.S. Cover for Israeli War Starting to Emerge
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat said Monday that
the regional circumstances are similar to those of 1982, adding that an American
cover for a possible Israeli war on Lebanon are starting to emerge given the
political and media discourse in the U.S. He said in his weekly editorial in the
PSP-affiliated Anbaa magazine: "Israel does not need an excuse to wage a war on
Lebanon," pointing out to an American study that stated that an Israeli war is
imminent and that the U.S. would be unable to prevent it.
In addition, the MP observed that a new equation is emerging in the region that
calls for accepting Israel's military and nuclear superiority or be faced with
war, adding: "There are sides in Lebanon that are still living in the past and
whose only interests are their own narrow ones." Jumblat urged for some
"political humility, perhaps it would spare Lebanon and the Lebanese from new
chapters of division and tension." He also wondered how some sides still believe
that peace will be achieved in the region while the U.S. continues its absolute
support for Israel and the Jewish state maintains its expansionist policies.
Addressing local developments, the MP hoped that the consensus over granting
Palestinian refugees their rights would not lead the failure of the efforts,
saying that he would not back down from his proposals over this matter. Beirut,
19 Jul 10,
Kataeb Calls for Keeping STL Away from Lebanese,
Regional Conflicts
Naharnet/The Phalange Party on Monday reiterated its "proclaimed stance" on
improving the living conditions of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, "especially
after this stance has been met with comfort and welcoming by a Lebanese public
opinion which is keen on the higher interests of Lebanon." In a statement issued
after the weekly meeting of its politburo, Kataeb voiced its rejection to "any
proposal that may lead to a gradual legitimization of naturalization" of
Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, calling for "discussing all the aspects of the
issue of Palestinian existence in Lebanon, from an Arab and international
scope." On the other hand, the party said that "the productive talks conducted
by Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as well as
the meetings made by a broad governmental delegation in Damascus, has put the
relations between the two fraternal peoples and independent states, Lebanon and
Syria, in their institutional and legitimate frame." As to the controversy about
the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, Kataeb called on all parties to keep the
tribunal away from the ongoing conflicts in Lebanon and the region, "and to stop
politicizing this international authority, which enjoyed national consensus upon
its establishment." Beirut, 19 Jul 10,
Short-term interests occupy
American-Israeli relations
By Yossi Alpher
Daily Star/Tuesday, July 20, 2010
The Obama-Netanyahu meeting in Washington two weeks ago was an elegant exercise
in short-term realpolitik. Very short-term.
US President Barack Obama needed urgently to project an image of tranquility,
friendship and cooperation in his relationship with Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu. This helps his administration ensure the support of a
variety of pro-Israel sectors of American society as mid-term congressional
elections approach. It also seeks to correct the impression that Obama has
simply mismanaged his relations with Netanyahu and Israel and fumbled the peace
process from the start.
Netanyahu, after a series of problematic meetings with Obama and against the
backdrop of prolonged failure in the peace process, needs to demonstrate to the
Israeli public that he is maintaining a high level of traditional
Israeli-American friendship and strategic cooperation. He knows from personal
experience (the 1999 elections) that Israel’s citizenry will punish any leader
suspected of undermining US support. He also presumably understands that the
specter of American pique with his government is bad for Israel’s deterrence
posture.
The two leaders confront two deadlines of immediate relevance. First comes
September 27, when the current settlement-construction freeze ends. Washington
wants to find a formula to make that deadline irrelevant by moving Israel and
the Palestine Liberation Organization into direct final-status talks whose
momentum overshadows whatever gestures Netanyahu must make to his right-wing
coalition. This requires a series of confidence-building measures on Israel’s
part, involving territory and security in the West Bank – enough ostensibly to
assuage fears on the part of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas lest he be
maneuvered into pointless negotiations that he cannot defend against criticism
from within his own Fatah party.
The second deadline is November 2, election day in the United States, after
which – whatever the results – Obama will regain greater freedom of maneuver
regarding Israel.
An additional deadline of less urgent but more important relevance concerns
Iran’s possible emergence as a nuclear power. Netanyahu asked for and received
from Obama assurances regarding Israel’s military freedom of action and American
support for Israel’s independent nuclear status. He presumably “paid” in
commitments to advance the peace process through confidence-building measures
and the like. Only time will tell whether either side’s commitments last beyond
September and then November.
Perhaps the most telltale indication of the problematic nature of the two
leaders’ relationship even after last week’s meeting was the body language.
As their White House new conference began, Netanyahu leaned far forward, elbows
on knees, in what looked like a characteristic gesture of submission. Obama, for
his part, leaned as far away from Netanyahu as possible, arms crossed,
demonstrating both disdain and defensiveness. After a few minutes, both caught
themselves and assumed more conventional poses. But the careful observer could
not avoid the impression that their one-on-one conversation had in no way
created a genuinely positive relationship – despite the words of praise and
admiration they heaped on one another.
Then there was what went unsaid. In opting for direct Israeli-Palestinian peace
talks at an early date, Washington as much as admitted that proximity talks had
failed. Publicly, settlements and the settlement freeze were never mentioned.
Nor were the administration’s abortive efforts to bring Israel into peace talks
with Syria.
Just days later, Netanyahu confronted the suspicions of a majority of his
hawkish “Cabinet of Seven” in seeking approval for a relaxation of Israel’s
security operations in the West Bank in favor of Palestinian Authority security
forces. Obama must still convince Abbas to move to direct talks. Netanyahu has
somehow to finesse an uneventful complete or partial end to the settlement
freeze. Further afield, tension on Israel’s border with Lebanon continues, as do
attempts to send additional aid flotillas to Gaza.
And the US is supposed to proceed with its withdrawal from Iraq next month
despite the absence of a government there and the possible negative consequences
for regional stability.
In short, the atmospherics in Washington were positive, but realities on the
ground in the Middle East could make us forget this Obama-Netanyahu summit
meeting very quickly
Yossi Alpher is a former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at
Tel Aviv University, and was a senior adviser to former Prime Minister Ehud
Barak. This commentary first appeared at bitterlemons.org, an online newsletter
publishing contending views of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Iran uses small bank in Germany
to beat sanctions - report
By Agence France Presse (AFP) /Tuesday, July 20, 2010
BERLIN: Tehran has used a small Iranian-owned bank in Germany to circumvent
sanctions slapped on firms blacklisted for involvement in the Islamic Republic’s
missile programs, a newspaper report said Monday. Citing unidentified Western
officials, the Wall Street Journal said the European-Iranian Trade Bank AG (EIH)
had done more than $1 billion of business for firms subject to US, UN and EU
sanctions. The German Finance Ministry said Monday it was not aware of any such
infringements but that the country’s financial regulator, Bafin, and the
Bundesbank central bank were looking into the claims made by the newspaper. “At
present we are not in possession of any information … about these reported
infringements. But the Bafin and the Bundesbank are currently investigating all
allegations against this bank,” spokesman Michael Offer said. Contacted by AFP,
the bank, known in Germany as the Europaeisch-Iranische Handelsbank AG, declined
to comment. The UN Security Council slapped a fourth set of sanctions against
Iran in June for refusing to halt its uranium enrichment work, the most
sensitive part of Tehran’s atomic drive. The sanctions authorize states to
conduct high-seas inspections of vessels suspected of ferrying banned items to
Iran and add 40 entities to a list of people and groups subject to travel
restrictions and financial sanctions. Meanwhile, the US administration added
Iranian individuals and firms to a blacklist as part of US and European efforts
to tighten the screws on Iran. The new sanctions target insurance companies, oil
firms and shipping lines linked to Iran’s nuclear or missile programs as well as
the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s Defense Minister Ahmad
Vahidi. The Wall Street Journal said that EIH’s business partners include units
of Iran’s Defense Industries Organization, the Aerospace Industries Organization
and the IRGC. In 2009, EIH appears to have been involved in a broad
sanctions-evasion scheme, conducting transactions on behalf of Iran’s Bank Sepah
that has been sanctioned for facilitating Iran’s weapons trade and proliferation
activities, the paper said. EIH was founded by a group of Iranian merchants in
Hamburg in 1971, according to the Journal. It operates openly under the
supervision of German bank regulators, however the US Treasury Department
blacklisted it for alleged illicit business with Iran, the report noted. – AFP
Ambassador denies rift between
Spain and UN peacekeeping force
‘I reject linking UNIFIL to any national, regional, international file’
By Patrick Galey and Carol Rizk
Daily Star staff
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
HADATH: The Spanish ambassador to Lebanon denied Monday that there was a rift
between his country and other peacekeeping contingents in the United Nations
Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Juan Carlos Gafo, during a news conference
held at his private residence, also refuted recent allegations that the force
was politicized and served international agendas ahead of Lebanon’s interests.
“All units of UNIFIL are linked to UNIFIL commander [Major General Alberto
Asarta Cuevas]. I refuse any attempts to create a gap between UNIFIL units no
matter the objective of these attempts,” Gafo told reporters. “I completely
reject attempts to use UNIFIL as a means to send messages to certain parties and
I reject linking UNIFIL to any national, regional or international file,” he
added, in reference to recent claims by some political pockets that UNIFIL was
gathering information for the UN’s Special Tribunal for Lebanon. “Such a thing
is unjustifiable.” Gafo, as head of Spain’s diplomatic mission in Lebanon, was
commenting on UNIFIL following attacks on force patrols in recent weeks, which
resulted in the injuries of three soldiers. The anti-UNIFIL aggression has come
six months into Spaniard Cuevas’ tenure.
Following the attacks, Gafo, along with French and Italian ambassadors, met with
Premier Saad Hariri, Defense Minister Elias Murr and other army and security
officials to discuss the importance of UNIFIL’s mission in south Lebanon. “The
conclusion we made was that the incidents could have a positive effect in the
future,” Gafo said. “All parties in the incident have recognized the importance
of UNIFIL in the south and the need to facilitate the tasks of UNIFIL in order
to execute [Security Council] Resolution 1701.”
Gafo urged the Lebanese Army to step up its coordination with UNIFIL and
welcomed Murr’s decision to send an additional 3,000 to 5,000 troops south of
the Litani River.
“UNFIL has to complete its tasks, despite dangers that might face the force
during its work,” he said. “All concerned parties, in addition to UNIFIL …
should perform their duties … in order to allow UNIFIL to successfully finish
its task and in order to reduce tension in the area.
“It is very necessary to support the cooperation between UNIFIL and the Lebanese
Army to avoid any errors that might occur on the political or media levels,” he
added. “But I have to note that coordination doesn’t mean limiting UNIFIL’s
freedom because the latter should have freedom of movement and freedom to
execute its daily tasks.”
UNIFIL has close to 13,000 troops permanently based in Lebanon and its primary
task is to implement Resolution 1701, which stipulates that Lebanese sovereignty
not be breached and weapons not exist in the country outside of state control.
The attacks of recent weeks have been treated by some as an indication of
residents’ growing antipathy toward a force they see as hamstrung in the face of
Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace and land. “We [need to] keep the best
relations between UNIFIL and the locals,” Gafo said. “I would like to note that
UNIFIL’s services surpass security and include educational, development and
medical services, demining and agricultural development.” He pointed out that
since the force was beefed up following the conclusion of the summer war of 2006
between Israel and Lebanon, “south Lebanon has witnessed stability it hasn’t
seen for a long time. This is thanks to the efforts of UNIFIL.” “We need to
benefit from this small crisis so that another won’t occur in the future,” Gafo
said. “All parties should assume their responsibilities to guarantee the success
of UNIFIL.”
Losing the Scent in South
Lebanon
By Jonathan Spyer*
July 20, 2010
http://www.gloria-center.org/gloria/2010/07/losing-scent-in-south-lebanon
Last week, the IDF released evidence of Hizbullah stockpiling of weaponry in
populated civilian areas of southern Lebanon. The IDF material showed an aerial
map of the Shi'ite town of El Khiam. The map showed details of a developed
military infrastructure woven into the fabric of the town's civilian population.
While the precise details were new, the fact of Hizbullah's use of civilian
areas as bases for its military reconstruction after 2006 is by now no longer a
major revelation.
The fact of this activity is not seriously in doubt. It is in direct
contravention of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war.
The mechanisms by which Hizbullah and its allies act to neutralize the 12,000
strong international force tasked with preventing the movement's military
activities in Lebanon's south have also been in evidence over the last couple of
weeks.
Tensions have been steadily rising between elements of the UNIFIL forces
deployed in south Lebanon (specifically - the French contingent) and supporters
of Hizbullah's "resistance." A number of incidents have taken place. On June 29,
UNIFIL conducted a 36-hour deployment exercise.
In the days that followed, members of the French contingent were attacked in the
village of Touline by a crowd which pelted them with rocks, sticks and eggs.
On Saturday, July 3, in the village of Kabrikha, a gathering of around 100
civilians blocked the road, preventing a French UNIFIL patrol from entering the
village. The soldiers were reportedly disarmed, and a number were injured. The
Lebanese army eventually intervened to separate the crowd from the patrol.
Villagers interviewed after the incidents claimed that UNIFIL troops had tried
to enter homes - a claim which a spokesman for the UN forces denied.
Michael Williams, UN special coordinator for Lebanon, meanwhile, described the
incidents as "clearly organized."
Williams was correct. Mobs of 100 civilians do not suddenly appear by accident
in southern Lebanon. It is not an area known for its liberal attitudes toward
freedom of political association. In the Shi'ite villages of the area, the only
force able to march, demonstrate and make its presence felt is the "resistance"
- that is Hizbullah - and its allies.
Sure enough, as UNIFIL commander Alberto Asarta Cuevas sought assurances in the
days that followed, Hizbullah leaders issued a number of statements expressing
puzzlement at UNIFIL's recent increase in activity. The movement's deputy chief
Naim Qassem laconically advised UNIFIL to "watch what it does." Hussein Haj
Hassan, a movement member who serves as minister of agriculture in the current
Lebanese government, described UNIFIL's behavior as "incomprehensible." "One
wonders what they want," he added.
In the Lebanese manner, a rumor then began to do the rounds that the UNIFIL
deployment exercise was in fact a trial run of a move whereby international
forces moved to prevent rocket fire on Israel. A Hizbullah-associated MP,
Muhammad Raad, said that that if a particular country affiliated with UNIFIL
wanted to "give the Israelis a card," it should not seek to do so at the expense
of southern Lebanon. It was unacceptable, said Raad, that "some UNIFIL units"
might be taking orders from their own minister of defense, rather than from the
UN.
In reality, Israeli commanders could only dream of such activity being
undertaken by the UN force. But such an interpretation has the unmistakable
quality of a further warning to the international forces not to overstep the
recognized rules of the game between them and Hizbullah. Hizbullah expects a
"live and let live" attitude both from the international forces and from the
Lebanese army regarding its military activities and preparations in the south.
FOLLOWING A series of consultations with the Lebanese government and armed
forces, UNIFIL commander Asarta this week issued a contrite statement,
apologizing to the residents of the south for the inconvenience to them caused
by his force's activities. He expressed his "love" for Lebanon. It was later
announced that henceforth, UNIFIL would no longer use sniffer dogs in patrols (a
point which had reportedly particularly annoyed the villagers). Also, it was
reiterated that UNIFIL would not enter houses and yards in populated areas,
except with prior coordination and the involvement of the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Given that the UNIFIL activity that prompted the actions and statements by
Hizbullah did not differ in a major way from previous practices, a number of
theories have been raised as to why the "resistance" chose to draw attention to
it in the way that it did.
In an interview with the Lebanese An-Nahar newspaper, Samir Geagea, leader of
the Lebanese Forces movement, speculated that the decision to move against the
French UNIFIL contingent related to anger at France's decision to vote in favor
of further sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council. According to such
an interpretation, the latest events would be by way of a friendly reminder to
the French of the vulnerability of their troops in southern Lebanon.
Geagea also noted French support for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. This is
the body charged with investigating the assassination of former Lebanese Prime
Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. The latest reports suggest that the tribunal is
soon to issue indictments. Hizbullah is now considered to be the main suspect in
the killing. But whatever the precise reasons for Hizbullah's latest move
against the French element in UNIFIL, the recent events once more demonstrate
the relative helplessness of the UN force.
The photos released by the IDF last week may have reassured Israelis by
demonstrating the extent of its "coverage" of southern Lebanon. But they also
showed the degree to which Hizbullah has been able to rebuild and rearm
undisturbed south of the Litani since 2006. Some 160 Shi'ite villages have been
turned into armed camps similar to El Khiam, we are told. All of this has taken
place under the sensitive noses of the (now demobilized) UNIFIL sniffer dogs.
The dogs, or someone else, have also apparently chewed up and digested UN
Resolution 1701
*Dr. Jonathan Spyer is a senior research fellow at the Global Research in
International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, Herzliya, Israel
New commander takes helm of
UNIFIL's German contingent
By Patrick Galey and Matern Boeselager
Daily Star staff
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
BEIRUT: The command of the German contingent of the United Nations Maritime
Taskforce (MTF) was transferred at a handover ceremony on Monday at Beirut port.
Around 200 troops from Germany’s naval UNIFIL operation were present to witness
Commander Martin Kubel hand control over to Commander Johannes Schmidt-Thomee,
watched by delegations from Lebanese and Germany armies.
Speaking ahead of the ceremony, Major General Wolf-Dietrich Kriesel praised his
country’s contribution to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
which has come under domestic as well as international criticism in recent
weeks.
“Our high expectations were not disappointed,” he told gathered troops. “I can
assure you that this mission is being closely watched both in political and
military circles in Germany. Your dedication and professionalism has earned much
respect from the hosting nation.”
Germany contributes three vessels to the MTF’s eight-strong fleet, including two
nautical minesweepers and a distribution frigate, stationed mainly at the
Cypriot port of Larnaca.
Since the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon in August 2006,
MTF troops – to which Germany contributes roughly 300 – have been training the
naval wing of the Lebanese Army. “Our main challenge for UNIFIL training of the
Lebanese maritime units,” outgoing MTF German commander Martin Kubel told The
Daily Star. “Of course there are challenges. Operations are getting better but
there are some problems with capacity because many of the Lebanese ships are
small.”
Although Lebanon currently operates over 40 military ships, many are of too
small a berth to operate in the winter due to adverse weather conditions.
“The fact is that we can train many [naval personnel] to a certain level, but
the material is not forthcoming at the moment. It’s important to have larger
ships,” Kubel added.
Incoming commander Johannes Schmidt-Thomee saidsummer cooperation with the MTF
was crucial for Lebanon.
“Our main aim is to support Lebanon. I would like to continue with the work we
have already done and build on it. We have to focus on the summer months and
make sure training is done properly,” he said. “We can start now but when the
winter comes UNIFIL will still be there. [The Lebanese Navy] has to learn to
take over responsibilities.”
Another part of UNIFIL’s MTF mandate is to patrol Lebanese territorial waters
and prevent the transfer of contraband goods to the mainland, in accordance with
United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. “This part of the mission is
quite successful,” Kubel said. “No one can enter Lebanese waters without being
caught by UNIFIL vessels. We are in contact with the Lebanese Navy and advise
them to take a look at certain ships.” Commander A. Russ, from UNIFIL’s German
contingent, said that popularity for the MTF had remained undimmed in the wake
of recent attacks on peacekeeping patrols in southern Lebanon. “One of our main
tasks is to tell people what we are doing and find out opinions about UNIFIL,”
he told The Daily Star. “We also counter smuggling into Lebanon. Our force helps
train the current members of the Lebanese Navy and give them expertise and make
clear that if they want to control their sea they need a functioning navy.”
Conference held by Islamist
party raises concerns
By Wassim Mroueh
Daily Star staff
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
BEIRUT: A controversial Islamist party that believes all Arab states lack
legitimacy for being “pro-Western” convened an international conference in
Lebanon this weekend, preaching the peaceful resurrection of the Caliphate. Some
500 members of Hizb ut-Tahrir gathered at the Bristol Hotel on Sunday for an
international conference to discuss challenges faced by Muslims throughout the
world, held on the 89th anniversary of the abolition of the Caliphate, according
to the Islamic calendar. Media officials from several countries in which Hizb
ut-Tahrir is active met for a news conference on Monday at the hotel, where the
party said official efforts to clamp down on the party in Lebanon had failed.
The holding of the summit raised security concerns, with the National News
Agency reporting Sunday that additional security measures were undertaken by
Internal Security Forces to accommodate Hizb ut-Tahrir members.
Ahmad Qasas, the head of the movement’s office in Lebanon, told The Daily Star
that the party was facing restrictions on its movement. “This is the harshest
campaign we have faced in Lebanon since 2006,” he said. Qasas held unnamed
Lebanese security agencies responsible for such acts, adding that they were
receiving orders from the US Embassy.
“They [security agencies] wanted to seize the opportunity of this conference to
try to ban the movement, but they failed to do so,” he added. Attempts to reach
an American Embassy spokesperson were unsuccessful. On Monday, Energy Minister
Jebran Bassil expressed his surprise that the conference took place, after
receiving promises that it would be banned by Prime Minister Saad Hariri and
Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud during the most recent Cabinet session. The
minister said the doctrine of Hizb ut-Tahrir did not recognize the Lebanese
Constitution and state, and pledged to raise the issue during the next meeting
of the government. As for Hizb ut-Tahrir, party officials stressed that its
intentions were peaceful, and didn’t sanction jihad as a means to bring about
the re-establishment of the Caliphate. “We do not seek to found an Islamic state
here, but we look at Lebanon as part of a [future] Islamic state,” said Qasas.
Osman Bakhash, the director of the party’s central media office, highlighted the
peaceful means that his movement was advocating to establish an Islamic
Caliphate.
“Our methodology [to establish the Caliphate] does not include jihad; rather we
communicate our message to build an opinion to oppose the current order [which
springs from] the colonial order,” said Bakhash. “Following the destruction of
the Islamic Caliphate in 1924, the Islamic nation has been subject to colonial
plundering,” noted Bakhash.
He said Hizb ut-Tahrir intended to remind Muslims to adopt “a certain way of
life, an Islamic life, which is a natural behavior that will lead to bringing
about an Islamic Caliphate.”
He stressed that non-Muslims would live peacefully under the rule of Islam, and
in response to a question, emphasized that Shiites were part of Muslim society.
As for Arab regimes, Bakhash said the pro-Western loyalty by all Arab regimes
meant they should be “held accountable.” Bakhash said conference participants
discussed major political and international challenges facing the Islamic
nation. A booklet distributed during the conference included the movement’s
stances on the occupation of Palestine, Afghanistan and Iraq; the potential
disintegration of Sudan; challenges facing Muslims in the West; the global
financial crisis, and the issue of nuclear arms in general and the Iranian case
in particular. According to the movement, the Caliphate-to-come would use force
to liberate occupied territories, and the party endorses Iran’s acquisition of
nuclear arms as a means of deterrence.
New Details Emerge on Imprisoned Moroccan Christian
Morocco violates international agreement
Washington, D.C. (July 19, 2010)–International Christian Concern (ICC) has
learned new information about Jamaa Ait Bakrim, a Moroccan Christian who has
been imprisoned for his faith since 2005. New information has been translated,
including interviews with a childhood friend and a businessman from his town. On
June 17, ICC issued a press release covering the basic information: Jamaa
(prisoner number 26574) was imprisoned in 2005 for his faith and is currently in
Prison Centrale, located in Kenitra, Morocco. The bulk of Jamaa’s 15 year
sentence came from the “destruction of the goods of others.” In actuality Jamaa
burned two unused wooden posts that were blocking access to his house. He
requested permission from local authorities and heard nothing until his arrest.
“Fifteen years for two abandoned posts, it is scandalous. Jamaa presented a
serious problem for the authorities. He displayed his convictions in broad
daylight and it is for this reason he underwent a crackdown,” stated a professor
who had known Jamaa since childhood. “Jamaa is a Christian who is convinced of
what he believes, he is far from being mad,” said a businessman who knew Jamaa
before he was arrested. “The business of two burnt posts gave the authorities an
excuse to rid their city of a man they hated.”< Extensive details and pictures
of Jamaa have been posted at ICC’s new Prisoner Focus page, located at
www.persecution.org/prisonerfocus/ >
Jamaa’s case has recently come to the attention of the US Congress. In a June 17
Congressional hearing on “Human Rights and Religious Freedom in Morocco,” Jamaa
was referenced by Congressman Frank Wolf (VA-10) and Senator James Inhofe (OK-R)
as an example of the ongoing persecution of Christians in Morocco.
Morocco is bound to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR),
which it ratified on March 27, 1979. Article 18 of the ICCPR states that
everyone shall have the right to freedom of thought, conscience, and religion,
including the freedom to change their religion. This freedom includes the right
to manifest the individual’s belief in public or private.
ICC’s Regional Manager, Logan Maurer, stated, “The sentence Jamaa is serving is
in blatant contradiction to international law agreed to by Morocco. This is the
first time Jamaa Ait Bakrim’s case has been able to get out to the west and I am
hopeful it signals the beginning of an effort that will bring freedom for Jamaa.
He has already served five years for ‘destroying’ two unused electric poles; it
is time Morocco be held accountable for the façade they have used to unjustly
imprison a man for his faith.
Turkey plays out of its league
Tony Badran, July 20, 2010
Now Lebanon/Two months after the Gaza flotilla affair, it seems the wager made
by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, namely to boost his domestic
standing while making a bid for regional primacy with an American blessing, has
not panned out. And with that, President Barack Obama’s designs for Turkey in a
post-American Middle East have perhaps hit a wall as well.
Obama signaled Turkey’s privileged place in his regional vision during his April
2009 visit to Ankara. Turkey was supposed to be the cornerstone of his policy of
engagement with the Muslim world. According to this view, the country, with its
supposedly moderate Islamic and democratic government, was the perfect partner
for Obama’s agenda. The American president at the time urged Turkey “to help
bridge the gap between the Muslim and Western worlds,” and remarked that his
visit was a “statement about the importance of Turkey, not just to the United
States, but to the world.”
In an address to the Turkish parliament, Obama laid out his view of Turkey as a
partner in traditionally American roles, such as mediating peace between
Israelis and Palestinians (and Syrians), and helping “to forge a new dialogue
that reconciles differences” in Iraq. As the United States lowered its regional
profile, Obama seemed to outline new dynamics in the region in which Turkey
enjoyed pride of place.
Not surprisingly, this led the ambitious Erdogan, whose foreign policy was
already premised on so-called “neo-Ottomanism,” to overreach. First came the
deal Turkey and Brazil negotiated with Iran. Erdogan thought he had delivered a
masterstroke, only to find himself slapped down. Worse, he embarrassed the Obama
administration and its European allies at a critical moment in the drive to
impose sanctions on Tehran. Here was Turkey appearing to be playing out of its
league.
But Erdogan thought he was operating on Obama’s behalf, and with his blessing,
in the mediator role. After all, the president had told him at a December 2009
summit at the White House that Turkey could be an important player in trying to
move Iran to abide by international rules while pursuing a peaceful nuclear
energy program.
Not only that. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu claimed the uranium swap
deal was crafted on the basis of letters sent to Brazil and Turkey by Obama
himself, and he added that an April 2010 meeting with the American president had
helped shape the agreement the Turks and Brazilians brokered. Moreover, Turkish
officials had used their summits with Obama to denounce Israel’s possession of
nuclear weapons at a time when the Obama administration was itself taking a
historic departure at the United Nations from Washington’s traditional policy
toward Israel’s nuclear program.
Then came Turkey’s reaction to the Gaza flotilla affair, which proved a step too
far. But there too, Erdogan was reading the tea leaves in Washington, where
Obama’s top counterterrorism adviser had made explicit his desire to “engage”
with groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah – a notion gradually entering the
mainstream of public debate. If Erdogan was to make a bid for primacy in the
Middle East and seize the mediator role, then becoming the interlocutor for
Hamas and showcasing Turkey’s ties to other Islamic groups made perfect sense
from his standpoint. And this did not just make sense to Erdogan, but also to
many who saw this as a way of counterbalancing Iran.
Erdogan’s mistake may possibly have been in thinking that he could expand his
role as a “bridge” and extend it to Hamas, and that Obama would give him cover.
For a moment, given the meek initial American reaction to the flotilla crisis
and Obama’s support for easing the blockade on Gaza, it looked like his
calculation was not far off target.
But it was one thing to play second fiddle to Obama’s feel-good rhetoric about
“outreach to the Muslim world,” and quite another to be the associate to radical
Islamist groups, not least of which was the IHH, the Turkish charity that
organized the Gaza flotilla. The German government has just banned the
German-based IHH for providing financial support to Hamas, which the European
Union lists as a terrorist organization. While officially separate from the
Turkish organization, the German IHH, according to German media, may be linked
to its Turkish counterpart. Last week the New York Times broke the story that
the IHH had close ties with Erdogan’s party.
With that, Obama’s sell becomes that much harder, highlighting the limits of his
vision. In fact, the Turkey gambit has created quite a mess for US allies like
Egypt and other beleaguered players, such as the Palestinian Authority, neither
of which wish to see the pressure on Hamas lifted. Meanwhile, Erdogan is not
pleased and is criticizing the US for not supporting Turkey’s position on the
flotilla and ranting against Washington’s “double standards.” So now Obama needs
to readjust and scale back some of his ill-advised policies.
This is a fitting example of the pitfalls of Washington’s lowering its regional
profile and subcontracting to middle powers important initiatives, all the while
over-inflating their stature. Obama’s impulses notwithstanding, there can be no
doubt that it is the United States that holds primacy, especially when these
powers harbor their own ambitions in a regional order that the Americans spent
decades painfully constructing. Not realizing this can mean regional disorder.
*Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Saad Hariri
July 19, 2010
On July 18, the Lebanese National News Agency carried the following report:
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri held a joint press conference with his
Syrian counterpart Naji al-Otari upon the completion of the activities of the
Follow-Up and Coordination Committee between the two countries… [Following the
statement of the Syrian prime minister], the Lebanese prime minister said:
We held excellent meetings with brother Prime Minister Muhammad Naji al-Otari
and the other ministers, and we tackled the different facets of cooperation
between Lebanon and Syria. As you know, the governmental delegation accompanying
me is an expanded one which conveys the level of the relations between the two
countries, as well as the level of our ambitions to develop these relations,
launch coordination and enhance the elements of trust between the two countries
and governments.
The dimensions of these meetings are extremely important to both Lebanon and
Syria, and the proof of this is the signing of a basket of agreements and
memorandums of understanding – after in-depth and serious consideration - which
will allow a qualitative leap at the level of the economy, education, culture,
the environment, public works, health and justice and many other issues that are
key to the citizens in the two countries. As I said to the prime minister and
the different ministers during the meetings, Lebanese and Syrians are connected
with deeply-rooted ties which must be translated into close relations between
the two countries and governments. At this point, I would like to point to
President Bashar al-Assad’s direct sponsorship of our joint action to develop
these relations, ones which are also permanently sponsored by President Michel
Sleiman.
The arena of common interests between Lebanon and Syria is extremely wide and
covers the economy, commerce, customs, culture, agriculture, environment,
tourism and security sectors. What increases the need to immunize this arena is
the fact that we are facing major challenges represented by Israeli attacks
targeting our sovereignty and soil and our joint interest to liberate our
occupied land in the Lebanese South and the Syrian Golan based on the Madrid
conference and Arab peace initiative ratified during the Beirut summit in 2002.
Lebanon is the object of violations committed by the Israeli enemy against its
air, land and water on a daily basis. It is facing these violations with
national unity firstly, but also by relying on Arab support and international
legitimacy represented by the decisions of the Security Council. The joint
statement issued following our meetings conveys an advanced wish to see
cooperation, based on the mutual respect of each of the two countries’
sovereignty and independence. We have also stressed the necessity to achieve a
just peace and secure the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, including
the right of return, the rejection of naturalization and the establishment of an
independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.
We also corroborated our insistence on proceeding with cooperation, coordination
and the exchange of visits, stressing the necessity to secure the elements of
economic comprehensiveness and complete the establishment of joint border
offices to contain the border and prevent smuggling among other illicit acts. We
also decided to proceed with efforts to link the two countries with railways and
establish a joint industrial zone on the border. Moreover, we asked the joint
committee to demarcate the border to launch its work and the missing people’s
committee to complete its tasks as soon as possible… These headlines aim to
enhance trust between the two countries as we want the relations between Lebanon
and Syria to be an advanced model for the joint Arab market. We are looking
forward to expanding the area of cooperation so that it includes other brotherly
states…
I would like to thank once again President Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian
government and its head brother Muhammad Naji al-Otari, the Lebanese and Syrian
ministers and the preparation committees which deployed massive efforts to
ensure the success of this meeting. I hope that Prime Minister Al-Otari will
respond to my invitation to visit Beirut soon in order to proceed without our
coordination and consultation.
Mubarak Will Die Within One Year, Intelligence Sources Report
by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu/Arutz Sheva
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s cancer is terminal and he will die within a
year, according to intelligence sources quoted by the Washington Times. Western
diplomats are worried whether the 1979 peace treaty with Israel will survive.
Both countries retain diplomatic embassies and exchanges, but the "cold peace"
has been increasingly chilly.
Egyptian authorities have previously denied Israeli and foreign media reports
that Mubarak has cancer. It is known that he has traveled to Germany and France
for medical care, but the Times report indicates his condition is a lot worse
than it seems.
Steven Cook, a senior fellow and Egyptian affairs specialist at the Council on
Foreign Relations, told the conservative-oriented newspaper, "When I was in
Cairo in May, it was interesting. People were mellow about the prospect of him
being ill. Everyone understood the end was near; the estimates were 12 to 18
months.”
The Egyptian president has confounded the rumors by appearing vibrant and alert
in recent meetings with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and U.S. Middle East
envoy George Mitchell, among others.
Cook said the public appearances are made possible by drugs, and explained, "I
heard that they pump him up with something that makes him able to function, so
he can do these meetings and go to these public events."
Mubarak took power in 1981 following the assassination of Anwar Sadat by
terrorists linked with the radical Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s largest
opposition party and which is officially outlawed.
Mubarak has run a tight regime, using an emergency law that effectively silences
political competitors. His likely successors are either his son Gamal, who has
displayed strong skills in economic reforms, Egyptian intelligence chief Omar
Suleiman, or Mohamed ElBaradei, the former chief of the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA).
Martin Kramer, a scholar at the Jerusalem-based Shalem Center and an analyst on
Egypt, however, told the Times that he thinks the peace treaty with Israel and
Egypt would survive Hosni Mubarak’s death. "Egypt has kept the peace deal with
Israel through the wars with Lebanon and through intifadas," Mr. Kramer said.
Mubarak and Saudi Arabia King Abdullah recently were described as “aging
autocrats” by The Economist of Britain. Mubarak is 82, and the king is 86.
“Decades of repression have ensured that the opposition is quiescent in Egypt
and virtually inaudible in Saudi Arabia, but they have also made these countries
vulnerable to violent disruption,” according to the magazine.
Noting the instability that often accompanies transition in non-democratic
countries, The Economist warned that Western interests will be in danger over
security and energy if the countries do not accomplish a smooth succession.
The underlying potential for an uprising is the elite’s ignoring the poor
majority, The Economist added. “Though blessed with natural resources,
especially the oil that has enriched Arab dynasties and their subservient elites
while often leaving the masses in penury, few Arab countries have seen their
non-oil economies flourish or their people enjoy the public services or freedoms
taken for granted elsewhere.”
It pointed out that the only stab at democracy in the Arab League has been in
Lebanon, which has been divided by civil war and near-civil war for two decades.
It added that Iraq is mired in corruption.
The Palestinian Authority’s American-sponsored elections resulted in a victory
by Hamas terrorists that left the United States in shock and has ended up with
the PA running a government that is not legal because it has unilaterally
postponed elections.
“The closed political systems of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the uncertainties of
dynastic power-mongering and the corruption inherent in patronage-ridden
autocracies still often lead to plotting at the top and frustration that could
spill over into anger at the bottom,” The Economist warned.
“That becomes more likely as the Internet, mobile phones and easier travel make
people far less easy to control."