LCCC
ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِJuly
19/2010
Bible Of
the Day
Isaiah 40:31/"but they who wait for the LORD shall renew their
strength; they shall mount up with wings like eagles; they shall run and not be
weary; they shall walk and not faint".
We have always to Wait for the Lord's work and mercy, and when for any reason we
get no strength, feel cornered or helpless, we have to wait and Wait?! We don't
know much about waiting in this instant age of ours. But God tells us to wait.
If we want to renew our energy and exchange our weakness for his strength, we
must wait. Oh, but the reward is worth it! we won't just walk without fainting,
or run without weariness—we will soar on heights like the eagles. So, we have to
wait while holding on to faith and hope.
Free Opinions, Releases,
letters, Interviews & Special Reports
The Iranian Regime’s Numbered
Days/By: Melik Kaylan/July
18/10
Lebanon and the lack of
security/By: Elie Fawaz/July
18/10
Sending Hizbullah a
message: Israel is ready/By
YAAKOV KATZ/July
18/10
Latest News
Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for July 18/10
Sfeir Launches Kesrouan Tour by
Visiting Oqaibeh/Naharnet
17 Agreements Signed during
Follow-up and Coordination Board Meeting Headed by Hariri and Otary/Naharnet
Hariri cites honesty and
understanding in relationship with Assad/Now Lebanon
From Damascus, Hariri urges closer
bilateral ties/Now Lebanon
Syrian PM reassured after meeting
with Hariri/Now Lebanon
Aridi calls Hariri’s
Damascus visit exceptional/Now Lebanon
Muallem: STL is a Lebanese Matter
and Demarcating Border is Not Facing Difficulties/Naharnet
Khalifeh: Hariri's Damascus Visit
Culmination of Lebanon-Syria Efforts/Naharnet
Nasrallah links infiltration of Lebanon's
phone network
to Hariri murder plot/National
4th Telecom Spy Suspect Escapes
into Israel, Baroud Receives Preliminary Investigation Report/Naharnet
Sayegh Slams Nasrallah: Most Spies
Belong to His Sect/Naharnet
Hobeich: Nasrallah’s speech targets
Lebanese, not Israelis/Now Lebanon
Alloush: If Nasrallah Knows Spy
Names Let Him Reveal Them/Naharnet
Baroud: Contacts Made to Deal with
Nasrallah's Questions/Naharnet
Saqr: Telecoms Ministry Waited 20
Days before Watching Qazzi/Naharnet
Fadlallah: What is Being Revealed
Will Lead to the Uncovering of Major Spies/Naharnet
4th Telecom Spy Suspect Escapes
into Israel, Baroud Receives Preliminary Investigation Report/Naharnet
Berri Refers Budget Plan to Finance
Committee before Heading to Geneva/Naharnet
Fadlallah: What is Being Revealed
Will Lead to the Uncovering of Major Spies/Naharnet
Jumblat: Let Us Set Political
Disputes Aside and Focus on Development/Naharnet
Hand Grenade is Found at Bab al-Tebbaneh
and Security Forces Work on Dismantling it/Naharnet
Abbas: Palestinian Rights Not
Linked to Naturalization or Arms/Naharnet
Arslan urges STL not to
get political/Now Lebanon
Wahab Urges Hariri to Stop Dealing
with Tribunal, Warns Those who Deal with Court/Naharnet
Abu Faour: Druze Delegation Defies
Israeli Ban by Visiting Lebanon/Naharnet
Zahra Attacks Bassil: March 8
Turning Institutions into Farms/Naharnet
Aoun: As-Safir's Report a 'Mere
Analytical Reading/Naharnet
Berri Refers Budget Plan to Finance
Committee before Heading to Geneva/Naharnet
Sfeir Launches Kesrouan Tour by Visiting Oqaibeh
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir launched his tour of Kesrouan Sunday
by visiting the village of al-Oqaibeh. He thanked the residents for their warm
welcome during his visit of the Qawala church before heading to the town of
Zeitoun, the next stop in his tour.Sfeir is expected to end his trip with a mass
in the town on Ghabala. Beirut, 18 Jul 10,
Hariri cites honesty and understanding in relationship with Assad
July 18, 2010 /Prime Minister Saad Hariri said from Damascus on Sunday that his
relationship with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is built on honesty and
understanding, MTV’s correspondent reported. When asked about the Special
Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), he called on “everyone to deal with the matter
calmly.”
The STL is probing the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
Media reports say the tribunal’s indictment will be issued before the end of
2010. There are also reports that some Hezbollah members are named in the
indictment. Hariri met earlier in the day with his Syrian counterpart, Mohammad
Naji al-Ottari, ahead of talks between delegations from both countries to sign
new bilateral agreements. -NOW Lebanon
Hobeich: Nasrallah’s speech targets Lebanese, not Israelis
July 18, 2010 /Lebanon First bloc MP Hadi Hobeich told New TV on Sunday that
Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s Friday speech was not
targeting Israel but was aimed against “a certain Lebanese party,” in a
reference to the March 14 alliance and the figures supporting the Special
Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). Nasrallah on Friday accused the STL of being an
“Israeli project” designed to target the Resistance by stirring up sectarian
strife in Lebanon. Hobeich said Hezbollah does not benefit from describing the
STL as an “Israeli project.”
-NOW Lebanon
4th Telecom Spy Suspect Escapes into Israel, Baroud Receives Preliminary
Investigation Report
Naharnet/Sources revealed to the daily An Nahar Sunday that a suspected Lebanese
spy collaborating with Israel and working for the Alfa mobile phone operating
company managed to escape across the border into Israel through "Kilo 9"
crossing gate in the South two days ago. They also said that Interior Minister
Ziad Baroud had requested the Internal Security Forces to provide him with the
facts surrounding the investigation on Israeli agents. He is expected to hold
talks with President Michel Suleiman on the matter and later Prime Minister Saad
Hariri in order to reach a unified stand on the issue. Security sources told the
daily Al-Hayat that the intelligence branch in the ISF had handed Baroud all
information it had acquired over Lebanese agent Charbel Qazzi two hours after
Hizbullah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's speech Friday.
The minister said that he would not be issuing any statements over Nasrallah's
remarks over the investigation on the issue of Lebanese collaborating with
Israel. Beirut, 18 Jul 10, 09:35
17 Agreements Signed during Follow-up and Coordination Board Meeting Headed by
Hariri and Otary
Naharnet/Lebanon and Syria signed 17 agreements and memorandums of understanding
during a meeting for the Follow-up and Coordination Board that was headed by
Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his Syrian counterpart Mohammed Naji Otary.
Hariri and Otary discussed cooperation and fraternal ties between the two states
and the joint desire to develop and expand them in a way that would live up to
the Lebanese and Syrian people's expectations. The two sides also pledged to
bolster Lebanese-Syrian ties within the framework of the Treaty of Brotherhood,
Cooperation and Coordination between the two countries in the economic,
political, and developmental fields among others. Hariri and Otary also stressed
the need to revive the work of the Higher Lebanese-Syrian Council and coordinate
activity and positions on the foreign policy level. Meanwhile, a meeting for the
Follow-up and Coordination Board headed by the two prime ministers took place at
the Syrian governmental building to discuss its meetings that were held on June
12 and the recommendations that were presented by both sides over modifying and
developing existing agreements between the two countries.
Hariri arrived in Damascus Sunday at the head of a ministerial delegation where
he was welcomed by Otary. He is in the Syrian capital on a two-day visit to hold
what were described as "foundational" talks for Lebanese-Syrian relations. He is
accompanied by 13 ministers on his trip during which he is set to sign 17
agreements, memorandums of understanding, and executive protocols covering a
range of fields such as economy, trade, education, agriculture, tourism among
others. Agreements over defense, security, and foreign affairs, however, have
yet to be reached. Hariri and Otary are expected to hold talks before signing
the agreements, which will be followed with a lunch in his honor and the
ministerial delegation. The prime minister is not scheduled to hold talks with
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but sources from the Lebanese delegation did
not rule out a meeting. Otary was reported as saying that there are high
expectations from Hariri's visit that is aimed at "restoring warmth between the
two nations". He said: "It is important to us that Lebanon be strong and
prosperous because Lebanon derives its strength from Syria and Syria derives its
strength from Lebanon and this is what we will try to convey to Hariri." Beirut,
18 Jul 10,
Muallem: STL is a Lebanese Matter and Demarcating Border is Not Facing
Difficulties
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem voiced his hopes Sunday that visits
between Lebanese and Syrian officials would increase in the future, adding that
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's trip to Lebanon "will take place at the
appropriate time". He denied on the margins of the meeting between the Lebanese
and Syrian delegations as part of Prime Minister Saad Hariri's visit to Syria
that there are difficulties in reaching an agreement between the two states over
matters of defense and foreign affairs. He said that he and his Lebanese
counterpart Ali al-Shami constantly coordinate matters, adding that Lebanese
Minister Elias Murr's absence from the trip has thwarted them from discussing
defense issues. Addressing the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, Muallem stressed:
"We seek the whole truth and if it targets one political party in Lebanon or
Syria or anywhere, then that means that it has been politicized."
"If any Syrian citizen was proven to be involved in the assassination, then he
will be tried in Syria on charges of grand treason," the foreign minister added.
Furthermore, Muallem denied that the demarcation of the Lebanese-Syrian border
is facing difficulties, saying that committees have been formed in Lebanon and
Syria over this matter. Beirut, 18 Jul 10, 15:00
Fadlallah: What is Being Revealed Will Lead to the Uncovering of Major Spies
Naharnet/Hizbullah MP Hasan Fadlallah stated Sunday that the discovery of
Lebanese spies collaborating with Israel will eventually lead to the uncovering
of major agent, and "that may be the final bullet" Israel may be using in
Lebanon "since it is incapable of directly confronting the Resistance." He
stressed: "We are at the stage of dismantling an Israeli agenda that may be the
most dangerous against Lebanon since the July 2006 defeat, with spy networks at
the spearhead of this battle." "We will not spare any efforts in defeating the
Israeli agenda regardless of the local or regional consequences and no matter
who is involved, no matter how great or small," the MP continued. Beirut, 18 Jul
10,
Jumblat: Let Us Set Political Disputes Aside and Focus on Development
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat hoped that
political disputes in Lebanon could be put aside in favor of focusing on
development. He said during a meeting with the heads of municipalities in the
Iqlim al-Kharroub region: "The municipality heads were elected in a consensual
and competitive atmosphere, but we should now focus on development." He also
stressed the importance of the 2010 state budget being approved in order to
speed up services in the country. Beirut, 18 Jul 10,
Hand Grenade is Found at Bab
al-Tebbaneh and Security Forces Work on Dismantling it
Naharnet/Citizens found a hand grenade with its detonator removed
at the Bab al-Tebbaneh neighborhood in Tripoli on Sunday. An army unit
immediately arrived at the scene where it closed off the area as it attempted to
dismantle it and uncover those who planted the grenade. Beirut, 18 Jul 10,
Wahab Urges Hariri to Stop Dealing with Tribunal, Warns Those who Deal with
Court
Naharnet/Tawheed Movement leader Wiam Wahab on Saturday called on Prime Minister
Saad Hariri and his government to stop dealing with the Special Tribunal for
Lebanon.
"Anyone who deals with the outcome of the court (case) by pointing his arrow at
Hizbullah will be considered an Israeli," Wahab threatened. His remarks came in
an interview with Al-Manar television channel. Beirut, 17 Jul 10,
Saqr: Telecoms Ministry Waited 20 Days before Watching Qazzi
Naharnet/MP Oqab Saqr said Saturday that the police intelligence bureau had
asked the Telecoms Ministry to keep an eye on Alfa spy Charbel Qazzi. "But the
ministry lagged by 20 days," Saqr told Al-Jadid television channel. In a related
issue, Saqr said he bears responsibility for criticizing the Lebanese army,
announcing his readiness to lift his own parliamentary immunity and submit to
investigation on condition that it involves the Directorate of Intelligence.
Beirut, 17 Jul 10,
Aoun: As-Safir's Report a 'Mere Analytical Reading'
Naharnet/Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun said that a report published
Saturday by As-Safir newspaper was "merely analytical reading.""What has been
attributed to me by As-Safir newspaper is just analytical reading based on facts
and political signs that have emerged a while ago," Aoun said. "But making such
information public is good anyhow," he added. Beirut, 17 Jul 10,
Khalifeh: Hariri's Damascus Visit Culmination of Lebanon-Syria Efforts
Naharnet/Health Minister Mohammed Khalifeh said Saturday that Prime Minister
Saad Hariri's visit to Damascus is the "culmination of efforts by officials in
both Lebanon and Syria to reach a number of agreements."Khalifeh, in an
interview with Asharq radio station, said the visit also aims at "moving towards
improving relations and implementing these agreements."
Beirut, 17 Jul 10,
Berri Refers Budget Plan to Finance Committee before Heading to Geneva
Naharnet/House Speaker Nabih Berri has referred on Sunday the 2010 budget plan
to the Finance and Budget Committee. He has also signed the laws that were
approved during Thursday's parliamentary session. The Speaker is expected to
head to Geneva Sunday to participate in the third World Conference of Speakers
of Parliament taking place from July 19 to the 21st. Berri is set to hold talks
with a number of heads of parliaments on the margins of the conference. He also
sent a cable of condolences to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Supreme
leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and parliament Speaker Ali Larijani over the
recent bombings in the Islamic Republic. Beirut, 18 Jul 10,
Waiting for good wages
Aline Sara , July 18, 2010
Now Lebanon/Luxury goods are off-limits to Lebanon’s young working class, who’ve
found that cost of living has drastically outstripped salaries. (AFP
photo/Joseph Eid)
“There are days when I feel like a mosquito in a box, or like Vladimir and
Estragon in Waiting for Godot,” says 29-year-old Sarah, whose name has been
changed, from Beirut. Though she holds a Bachelors and Masters degree from the
American University of Beirut, she says Lebanon offers little hope for
ambitious, young individuals. As a research assistant at AUB’s Department of
Public Health, Sarah makes $821 a month.
While Sarah has found a way out – she was recently accepted at a Masters’
program in the US – others, such as Firas Haidar, were not so lucky. Haidar’s
body was found under the landing gear of a Nas Air jet that arrived in Riyadh
from Beirut last Saturday. According to Haidar’s family’s lawyer, the Lebanese
national had smuggled himself into the wheel bay of the plane to get a free ride
to the Gulf, where he was hoping to find work.
While a bad job market and low minimum wage – the government set the lowest
monthly salary at 500,000 LL, or $300, in May 2008 – contribute to the problem,
Mohamad Chamseddine, a policy research specialist at Information International,
says the main problem here is the disproportionate rise in the cost of living
compared to average salaries. “Someone’s salary might have gone from $300 to
$500, an increase of approximately 66 percent, but his rent will increase by
more than 100 percent, from $200 to $500.” Although common in the Levant, such a
discrepancy is not normal in Dubai or Abu Dhabi, where companies similar to
those in Beirut operate.
As such, 28 year-old Lebanese Ralf, whose name has also been changed, says he
survives on savings from former employment in the Gulf. There, he made four
times his current salary – approximately $7,500 a month – and got yearly
bonuses. The construction manager, who has been with the Solidere real estate
company for the past three years, says there has been “no increment, bonus, or
even talk of a potential raise” at his current job. Ralf, who says he returned
to Lebanon for personal reasons, has a degree in Mechanical Engineering from AUB
and an MBA from the University of South Hampton, UK. “They compare my wage to
other salaries in the country and say what I am making is good,” he said.
The situation is worse for those with families. For Jules and his wife,
excitement about their newborn is offset by significant financial strains, as
they grapple with the cost of their baby’s vaccinations, daycare and other
necessities. Jules, a capital market officer in one of the country’s major
banks, and his wife, a nurse manager, make about $1,800 a month combined. Jules’
salary has increased by only $70 a month in five years. “They use the fact that
I don’t have an MBA as an excuse, but then you see a 21-year-old entry-level
employee getting a salary of $2,000 to $3000, only to find out after that his
father knows the boss and has a wasta [connection].”
Haissam Minkara, a research manager at the International Foundation for
Electoral Systems, meanwhile, argues that the strong family ties in Lebanon are
what are keeping youth afloat; parents are often willing to support their
children, who typically live at home until they get married, thus sparing the
cost of rent, he notes.
But that is often not enough. In order to make ends meet, people have their
salary, but they also have side jobs and support from their political party or
parish, said Chamseddine. To give an extreme example of moonlighting,
Chamseddine cited prostitution. “I see these women, secretaries that make $500 a
month, always made up, sporting Gucci bags and driving a Mercedes Benz. Where do
you think the money comes from? And why do you think Arabs from the Gulf come
here?”
Tourists are another reason prices are so inflated. They, along with wealthy
expatriates who return to Lebanon to buy property, are sending prices up. “It’s
not me who’s eating a $15 salad at Lina’s Cafe; it’s them,” Chamseddine said.
“In this country, it’s the law of the jungle, all about survival. Most Lebanese
find ways to live with the bare minimum, and a small group is completely
neglected,” Chamseddine said. “There is not much we can do, because nothing
functions normally,” he added, “and sectarianism stops all social revolution
anyways.”
Lebanon and the lack of security
By: Elie Fawaz, Now Lebanon
July 16, 2010
Now Lebanon/It is no coincidence that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon takes
precedence over domestic events as the date for issuing the indictment in the
Rafik Hariri case draws near. It also comes as no surprise that some are
strutting about like peacocks on TVs, warning of destructions and afflictions if
PM Saad Hariri does not relinquish his quest for the truth about his father’s
assassination.
Likewise, it comes as no surprise that a threatening press publishes articles
that are closer to war declarations than to rational and reasonable political
analyses.
The Lebanese have been given a choice between justice and stability. They have
been threatened that Sunni-Shia strife may erupt as a result of the indictment,
and allusions have been made regarding a remake of the May 7 events, albeit one
with more violence, killing and destruction. Having heard all that, the Lebanese
now find themselves warned by some journalistic imagination speaking of a
scenario that may bring Syrian troops back to Lebanon with Western blessing in
order to break the civil fight in Lebanon if it ever takes place.
Quite expectedly, the abovementioned strutting peacock has never heard in his
life about the relation between justice and civil peace, or about the function
of justice to break the circle of violence, hatred and sanctions outside the
framework of the law. The esteemed journalist failed to note that his Israeli
enemy would be the first one to stand against Syria’s intervention on the
Lebanese battlefield, since Israel has the arguments and means to convince the
Syrian army to be content with watching Lebanese bloodshed from afar.
The questions that come to mind are the following: Why make all this fuss about
an indictment about which no one has any information yet, especially since it is
an indictment, not a definitive ruling? Why all these tense reactions? This
holds true knowing that, in form, the STL’s proceedings will be public and
accessible to all attorneys in the world to see, whereas, in shape, any ruling
or indictment by STL judges will be a scientific decision backed by irrefutable
elements of evidence and proof, which everyone will be able to consult as well
to ascertain their authenticity and accuracy. Anything that does not abide by
these conditions will be easily uncovered and then, conspiracy theorists, like
our strutting peacock, will be able to accuse the STL of collaborating with
Israel.
Furthermore, what underlies these stances against the very principle of the
Special Tribunal for Lebanon? Indeed, throughout history, international
tribunals have successfully found out the truth and tried criminals in several
occasions, the latest of which being the International Criminal Tribunal for the
former Yugoslavia and the Kosovo massacres. On whether the truth will embarrass
many domestic parties and lead to strife, PM Saad Hariri asserted back when the
STL decided to release the four security officials that the STL aims to achieve
justice and protect Lebanon and the Lebanese from the machine of indiscriminate
killings, and that it is definitely not for revenge. Therefore, the choice the
Lebanese people should be offered is one between the chaos of killings and
security, or between justice and the law of the jungle, unless someone wants us
to remain crippled by bloodshed. In that case, it would be possible to initiate
a new May 7 chain of events under the pretexts of collaboration accusations or
of obedience to Western wishes. Let us allow the Lebanese to judge the STL’s
proceedings by themselves and hope that they have enough discernment and
awareness to move beyond this trial. This would pave the way for reconciling the
Lebanese with their past by knowing the truth rather than burying it so that our
tragedies are not repeated over and over again.
**This article is a translation of the original, which appeared on the NOW
Arabic site on Wednesday July 14, 2010
No Place Like Iran
by Mark Hosenball/Newsweek
July 17/10
Until he flew home to Iran last week, claiming to have been kidnapped and
tortured by American agents, Shahram Amiri was a client of the CIA’s National
Resettlement Operations Center (NROC). That experience may not have improved his
attitude toward America. The NROC, an office in the agency’s National
Clandestine Service, is supposed to keep foreign defectors as happy and
comfortable as possible—a frequently thankless task, since they tend to be a
stressed-out lot. What makes the center’s task even tougher is that it’s widely
dismissed by high-flying CIA officers as little more than baby-sitting
emotionally fragile foreigners. Former intelligence officials say the NROC’s
ranks are often populated by retirees, contractors, and spies who have seen
better days.
For the record, national-security officials emphatically deny the Iranian’s
allegations. “Amiri wasn’t kidnapped and he wasn’t coerced,” insisted one U.S.
official familiar with Amiri’s case, asking not to be named discussing sensitive
information. No one is saying why the alleged nuclear researcher left his wife
and child behind when he vanished while on pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia a year
ago, only to reappear in America months later. But an Iranian official,
requesting anonymity for obvious reasons, says Amiri’s family was warned that
they would suffer unless he went home—and last week he made a very public
redefection back to Iran. “He chose a stupid way to do it, lying about what
happened to him here to try to build up his credibility back home,” the American
official says.
To put Amiri on trial for spilling nuclear secrets would be to admit that Iran
has a nuclear program. Still, his best hope of protecting himself and his family
against reprisals—perhaps death—may well be to attract as much publicity as
possible with allegations of CIA mistreatment. “His safety depends on him
sticking to that fairy tale about pressure and torture,” the U.S. official said.
“His challenge is to try to convince the Iranian security forces that he never
cooperated with the United States. It’s a tall order. He’s gambling on them
being dumb.”
But officials in Washington aren’t helping Amiri’s odds. They confirm that he
began supplying information to U.S. intelligence even before he was brought to
America a year ago. Another American official (also asking for anonymity) says
Amiri may well have been a significant source for a controversial 2007 U.S.
National Intelligence Estimate saying Iran had quit working on nuclear weapons
in 2003. An update to that assessment, also likely to rely on Amiri’s input, is
expected to say Iran has resumed research on designing nuclear bombs, but hasn’t
made a final decision to build them. Although the Iranian official tells
NEWSWEEK that Amiri oversold himself to the CIA, the agency checked out his
information and began paying compensation to him to the eventual tune of $5
million. But Amiri left it all behind to go home. “Anything he got is now beyond
his reach, thanks to the financial sanctions on Iran,” says one of the U.S.
officials. “He’s gone, but the money’s still here.”
*With Maziar Bahari
The Iranian Regime's Numbered Days
Melik Kaylan,
07.16.10,
The country's conservative and influential merchant class is on strike. This
does not bode well for Ahmadinejad's government.
As I have said here before in this column, the cleanest option for liberating
Iran lies within Iran itself. The various other scenarios--the U.S. military
option, the Israeli military option, international sanctions--have been
exhaustively debated and found, if not impossible, imperfect owing to the
collateral costs, and perhaps ineffectual. Sanctions, at least in the short
term, will enrich and empower the ruling elite. Military action will spur
Iranian authorities to retaliate in Iraq and Afghanistan, and possibly block oil
transit in the straits of Hormuz and destabilize the world economy. But if
Iran's nuclear plans can be delayed, time is against the regime because of
building domestic pressure.
There's a terrific July 14 exegesis in the New Republic on one method of delay:
Letting Iran acquire sabotaged nuke hardware. The West has, for some time, run a
coordinated campaign against Tehran's program, sowing enough damage, doubt and
confusion to slow things down. Here's one of several examples cited in the
article:
Yahoo! Buzz"Efforts to steer defective products toward Iran have taken a number
of forms. For instance, according to a former Mossad operations officer who goes
by the alias Michael Ross, in 1998 the Mossad and the CIA developed a plan to
sell a supposedly helpful chemical substance--which would, in fact, gum up
centrifuges over time--to Iran on the black market."
But as the article argues, the campaign cannot work forever and is not a
substitute for sound policy. Luckily, as the regime slaloms between crises of
its own making--from the post-election unrest to the current strike by Bazaaris--its
inherent instability grows ever more acute. The best policy might be to simply
hurry the process along and prevent the regime from sparking regional
destruction in its death throes. The arrival in June of a massive Western fleet
including a second U.S. aircraft carrier off Iran's coast may be precisely for
that purpose--that is, to prevent Iranian attacks on Gulf states' oil
installations and the like. There has been to date no official explanation for
the buildup of naval hardware in the area, which includes both German and French
warships. But the White House is no doubt keenly aware of the Iranian regime's
accelerating downward spiral.
Most Americans do not stay informed of Iran's troubles day to day. The general
impression is that there were massive street demonstrations for a while and the
regime successfully suppressed them. But as the veteran Iran observer Michael
Ledeen argued in a July 12 Wall Street Journal op-ed entitled “Iran's Revolution
Has Only Just Begun” the situation goes from bad to worse for the rulers in an
endless struggle to contain the cracking of the entire system. Just in the last
few weeks, the government has suffered one setback after another. Here is a
short list of such items, some from Ledeen's article and others from the
indispensable website planet-iran.com: A refinery in the southern city of Abadan
was torched; a top regime apparatchik (head of the automobile industry) was shot
in Damascus; explosions and fires consumed parts of Tehran's notorious Evin
prison, where many political prisoners are kept; two suicide bombers killed
scores of Revolutionary Guards at a mosque in the province of Baluchistan. And
these are the more routine of the miseries and crises daily endured in Iran.
Far more critical are two other recent developments. First, the United Arab
Emirates has chosen, in effect, to back sanctions by freezing 41 top regime bank
accounts and is boarding ships with suspicious cargo bound for Iran. The UAE was
hitherto a leading port for goods being smuggled into Iran and a top beneficiary
of off-shore Iranian bank accounts. The pressure is now on Dubai to follow suit.
Second, the Bazaaris in Tehran and other major cities have gone on strike. This
could topple the regime entirely on its own. The Bazaaris, Iran's highly
conservative merchant class, the backbone of the retail and wholesale economy,
were the pivotal force in collapsing the Shah's rule. As Iranian commentators
have observed down the years, once the Bazaaris turned, the Shah's days were
numbered. Now they've turned against Ahmadinejad's government.
The trouble began when Tehran announced on July 6 a 70% tax hike on the Bazaari
merchants. They immediately went on strike and the tax authorities backed down.
But the strikes have not stopped. Instead they have spread to other major cities
such as Tabriz and Isfahan. On Monday and Tuesday of this week the government
suddenly declared a “general holiday” due, it claimed, to the hot weather. In
reality, state officials panicked in the face of a growing national strike of
Bazaaris and wanted quiet time to force guild and community leaders back to
work. Thus far they have not succeeded.
The Bazaaris are a bellwether of the economy and the national mood. They have
been staunch supporters of the Islamic Revolution when it was run doctrinally by
the Mullahs before the Revolutionary Guards became the primary center of power.
They consider the new ruling elite to be outside the law, bad for business and
bad for the country. Their defection is a great blow to the regime against whom
they now represent a genuine existential threat, not least because of their
oddly influential urban locations: the warren of enclosed spaces they
traditionally occupy at the heart of Iranian cities. It's in exactly such places
that conspiracies grow unhindered into demonstrations and movements and spill
fully grown out into city streets. That's what happened in the Shah's time.
We will have to see how much better the current regime handles the threat. That
anyone in power even tried to hike taxes on the Bazaaris, knowing the potential
consequences, suggests that the authorities are desperately hurting for funds.
For a system that survives through central funding of loyalist enforcers and
keeping the populace quiet via welfare payments--$100 billion a year for fuel
subsidies alone-- the evidence of collapse keeps mounting. Exactly at such
moments regimes of this kind do desperate things abroad to divert and control
popular anger at home. It's a good time for the fleet to be in the region.
**Melik Kaylan, a writer based in New York, writes a weekly column for Forbes.
His story "Georgia in the Time of Misha" is featured in The Best American Travel
Writing 2008.
Sending Hizbullah a message: Israel is ready
By YAAKOV KATZ
07/09/2010 16:50
Intel on Hizbullah declassified this week makes clear: Israel can still destroy
the group's missiles should another war break out.
Talkbacks (20)
Four years ago, on the eve of the Second Lebanon War, the IDF had just a few
hundred designated Hizbullah targets throughout Lebanon. About 90 of them were
longrange missiles that had been stored in the homes of top Hizbullah operatives
and these were destroyed by the air force within 36 minutes on the first night
of the war.
While by the end of the war, the air force had bombed close to 8,000 targets,
the fact that it knew about only a few hundred before the war partially led to
the failure to stop the rocket fire and fatally hurt the guerrilla group.
On Wednesday, top IDF officers revealed that the air force today has thousands
of designated targets it can bomb if war were to break out.
Some of them, like those that appear on the maps of the southern Lebanese
village of el-Khiam that were declassified on Wednesday, are of arms caches,
command-and-control centers and rocket launchers; others are likely longrange
rockets, like the highly accurate M600 or Scuds, which Syria recently
transferred to Lebanon.
In the four years that have passed since the Second Lebanon War, both the IDF
and Hizbullah have been busy studying their mistakes and implementing the
necessary lessons. The IDF, for example, significantly increased training
regimens, developed and procured active-protection systems for tanks and armored
personnel carriers and is investing in building new urban warfare training
centers due to an understanding that the next conflict would be fought in the
narrow streets of southern Lebanese villages.
Hizbullah, senior officers said this week, mostly consists of a lot more of the
same encountered in 2006, except today its command posts, rocket launchers and
guerrilla forces are deployed inside villages and not in the notorious “nature
reserves” it had created in the forests of southern Lebanon before 2006.
THERE ARE two main reasons for Hizbullah’s change in strategy. The first is the
presence of UNIFIL, which immediately following the war was beefed up to some
13,000 soldiers, throughout the open areas in southern Lebanon. These soldiers
operate throughout southern Lebanon, but only in open areas, claiming that their
mandate does not allow them to independently enter villages.
To enter a village, even after receiving intelligence regarding a Hizbullah arms
cache, the peacekeeping force needs to coordinate ahead of time with the
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), which Israel suspects in previous cases of having
tipped off Hizbullah. In other cases, LAF simply does not want to clash with the
more powerful Hizbullah.
The second reason is Hizbullah’s desire to draw IDF troops into the 160 or so
densely populated villages in southern Lebanon. This is a similar strategy to
the one employed by Hamas in the Gaza Strip during Operation Cast Lead, which
resulted in the Goldstone report and the continued international criticism which
has caused far greater damage than any Kassam rocket fired from Gaza.
In a 2008 newspaper interview, OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Gadi Eizenkot
explained what will happen in a new conflict.
The IDF’s plan for a future war, he said, would be based on the “Dahiya
doctrine” – in reference to Hizbullah’s stronghold in Beirut which was flattened
by IAF smart bombs during the war.
“What happened in the Dahiya neighborhood of Beirut in 2006 will happen in every
village from which Israel is fired on,” Eizenkot said. “We will apply
disproportionate force on it and cause great damage and destruction there. From
our standpoint, these are not civilian villages, they are military bases.”
More recently, at a conference in Tel Aviv, Eizenkot explained that the IDF will
first attack immediate threats, and will then begin warning the civilian
population throughout southern Lebanon to vacate their homes ahead of a ground
offensive and aerial bombardment.
“I am convinced that this mode of operations is moral and is the right way to
operate,” he said. “Hizbullah is the one that is turning these hundreds of
villages into war zones.”
The heavy deployment inside the villages serves as a major challenge, but some
in the IDF hope it could also deter Hizbullah from launching another offensive.
In 2006, Hizbullah came under harsh domestic criticism for provoking a war which
ruined Lebanon’s usually profitable summer tourist season.
This is even truer today when Lebanon’s economy grew by 8 percent over the past
year and more than 2 million tourists, mostly from Arab countries, visited.
Either way, the IDF’s decision to declassify intelligence information on
Hizbullah should be viewed as the opening shot in a public relations campaign
ahead of the next war. The village chosen to present to the media was el-Khiam,
which should more appropriately be called a town – it has a population of close
to 25,000.
Predominantly Shi’ite, el-Khiam was, before the IDF’s withdrawal from Lebanon in
2000, home to a detention center where Hizbullah operatives were interrogated.
It is located about 4 kilometers from the border.
The maps and videos declassified by the IDF show the homes that Hizbullah has
taken over and used to store weapons and establish bunkers and
command-and-control centers. It also revealed the location of improvised
explosive devices, some of them weighing up to half a ton, mostly at the
entrance to the village.
The declassification is aimed at deterring Hizbullah from attacking by
demonstrating the IDF’s deep penetration of its most carefully- guarded secrets.
The IDF is also hoping to achieve a diplomatic victory. It recently sent a
delegation of top officers to UN headquarters in New York to present the
evidence to foreign diplomats. Northern Command also presented the evidence to
UNIFIL commander Maj.-Gen. Alberto Asarta Cuevas.
The release of the information also results from the lessons learned from the
Goldstone report and the handling of the Gaza-bound flotilla in late May. In
both cases, Israel felt that it was justified in taking action, but was
genuinely frustrated by the world’s decision to ignore its case. As a result, it
is now preparing the world for what will happen in the event of a new war. By
showing the public the Hizbullah positions in villages, they will likely better
understand why there will be so much devastation throughout Lebanon.
Israel’s main problem with Hizbullah continues to be its unprecedented military
buildup. In 2006, Hizbullah had 14,000 fighters compared to 30,000 today; it had
15,000 rockets compared to 40,000 today.
And in 2006, just 10,000 of them were in southern Lebanon compared to 30,000
today.
It also has long-range missiles, such as the Fateh-110, 220 mm. and 320 mm.
Katyushas and the Syrian-made M600 – which has a solid propellant and has a
range of 250 km., a 500 kg. warhead and is equipped with a sophisticated
guidance system. Hizbullah also recently received Scud missiles with a range of
about 300 km.
Israel’s hands are pretty much tied when it comes to stopping the rearmament.
Several months ago, when the government debated the possible bombing of a
weapons convoy from Syria to Lebanon, the plan was nixed due to the fear that
war would erupt – this according to foreign reports.
In closed-door meetings, Eizenkot has said a number of times that it is almost
impossible to deter a state or terror organization from building up its
military. “It is however possible to deter that state or organization from using
it,” he said.
That is exactly what Israel is hoping for.
While it continues to prepare for war, it is no secret that the past four years
have been the quietest in decades along the northern border.
During Operation Defensive Shield in 2002 – when the IDF took up positions in
all major cities in the West Bank – Hizbullah fired 600 rockets and mortar
shells and 300 anti-tank missiles into Israel. Fourteen people were wounded.
During Operation Cast Lead, Hizbullah did not fire a single rocket.
While deterrence can temporarily postpone a conflict, it ultimately wears off.
That is why Israel continues to take action against Hizbullah. On the one hand,
Israeli officials speak publicly about the destruction expected in Lebanon but
the IDF also operates openly along the border, sometimes even beyond the border
fence but within the Blue Line border which does not always correspond with the
physical barrier.
These crossings of the fence take place almost every day and are meant to send
Hizbullah a clear message – Israel is ready.