LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِDecember 11/2010

Bible Of The Day
The Good News According to Matthew 23/11-23
23:11 But he who is greatest among you will be your servant. 23:12 Whoever exalts himself will be humbled, and whoever humbles himself will be exalted. 23:13 “Woe to you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! For you devour widows’ houses, and as a pretense you make long prayers. Therefore you will receive greater condemnation. 23:14 “But woe to you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! Because you shut up the Kingdom of Heaven against men; for you don’t enter in yourselves, neither do you allow those who are entering in to enter. 23:15 Woe to you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! For you travel around by sea and land to make one proselyte; and when he becomes one, you make him twice as much of a son of Gehenna as yourselves. 23:16 “Woe to you, you blind guides, who say, ‘Whoever swears by the temple, it is nothing; but whoever swears by the gold of the temple, he is obligated.’ 23:17 You blind fools! For which is greater, the gold, or the temple that sanctifies the gold? 23:18 ‘Whoever swears by the altar, it is nothing; but whoever swears by the gift that is on it, he is obligated?’ 23:19 You blind fools! For which is greater, the gift, or the altar that sanctifies the gift? 23:20 He therefore who swears by the altar, swears by it, and by everything on it. 23:21 He who swears by the temple, swears by it, and by him who was living in it. 23:22 He who swears by heaven, swears by the throne of God, and by him who sits on it. 23:23 “Woe to you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! For you tithe mint, dill, and cumin, and have left undone the weightier matters of the law: justice, mercy, and faith. But you ought to have done these, and not to have left the other undone. 23:24 You blind guides, who strain out a gnat, and swallow a camel!

Free Opinions, Releases, letters, Interviews & Special Reports
Egypt after Mubarak/By: Lee Smith/Middle East Quarterly/December 10/10
Lebanon needs a breath of fresh air/Daily Star

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for December 10/10
US diplomat accused France of succumbing to March 8 - cables/Daily Star
Sfeir: Suspected spies should face trial or be freed/Daily Star
Murr: Try those who called me a traitor/Daily Star
Herman von Hebel Appointed Registrar of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon/Naharnet
Harb Proposes Solution to Break Impasse, Revive Constitutional Institutions/Naharnet
Syria's Assad says no one wants Lebanon strife/AFP
U.S. Sanctions 'Two of Hizbullah's Top Financiers in Africa'/Naharnet
Williams discusses plans for Ghajar withdrawal with Hariri/Daily Star
Al-Akhbar newspaper shuts down website following hack attack/Daily Star
Hariri raps efforts to paralyze government/Daily Star
Assad: 'No one wants strife in Lebanon'/Daily Star
Assad from France: We Won't Present Initiative End Crisis Even Though Lebanese are Incapable of Settling it/Naharnet
PSP: Jumblat is Aware of Dangers on Internal Scene, Politicians Must Make Concessions/Naharnet
Cabinet Meeting Hits Dead End as March 8 Adamant to Have False Witnesses File at Top of Agenda/Naharnet
Fadlallah: Indictment's Real Purpose is to Tarnish Resistance's Image/Naharnet
Australian Customs Find Cocaine in Sunscreen Jars Sent from Lebanon/Naharnet
Man Assaults Head of EDL's Jounieh Department/Naharnet
Gates: Gulf States Concerned about Iran's overall Aggressive behavior with respect to Hizbullah, Lebanon/Naharnet
Israeli Envoys Warned of Hizbullah, Iranian Revenge/Naharnet
STL Registrar: Hariri Assassination Indictment 'Very, Very Soon'/Naharnet
Aoun: Abnormal Situation We're in Cannot Remain Like This/Naharnet
Assiri: Lebanese Should Consolidate Unity to Confront Indictment/Naharnet
Rifi Commenting on Karam's Indictment: I Knew Aoun Would Not Win the Battle/Naharnet
Hariri in 'Shakespearean' Dilemma on his Father's Murder Probe/Naharnet
Russia's Sultanov to Beirut to Meet Lebanese, Hizbullah Officials/Naharnet
Najjar: Solution to False Witnesses is to Allow Ordinary Judicial Authority to Deal with Issue/Naharnet
Syria-Saudi Agreement on Lebanon Waits for Signal from King Abdullah/Naharnet
Will Hizbullah Wage War on Israel to Avoid Civil Strife in Lebanon?: Haaretz/Naharnet
2 Molotov Bombs in Dekwaneh, Borj Hammoud/Naharnet
Barak: Tribunal is Lebanese-International Issue and Israel Doesn't Interfere/Naharnet
Lebanese Couple Facing Deportation from U.S. as Son Fights for Life/Naharnet

US diplomat accused France of succumbing to March 8 - cables
By Patrick Galey /Daily Star staff
Friday, December 10, 2010
BEIRUT: The US blamed Paris for succumbing to “shameless fear-mongering” and empowering minority MPs during Lebanon’s 2007 presidential impasse, according to leaked diplomatic documents seen by The Daily Star. Cables obtained by WikiLeaks and seen exclusively by The Daily Star suggested that former US Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman had repeatedly expressed alarm at what he saw as France opening the door to March 8 lawmakers and their Syrian allies as the 12-month political deadlock deepened in late 2007.
“Having watched the French badly fumble or [intentionally foul] the presidential elections so far, we assume we will need to take on the leadership role in building an international consensus for presidential elections now, without complicating linkages,” said one cable from December 2007. “We recommend starting to point fingers at who is to blame for Lebanon’s presidential vacuum.” At the time, March 14 figures advocated a president voted for on a “half plus one” basis – meaning the majority could effectively elect its own president – while March 8 lawmakers demanded a two-thirds majority vote. After former President Jaques Chirac cut diplomatic ties with Damascus, new President Nicolas Sarkozy’s administration had showed signs of openness toward Syria. As France’s efforts to generate a consensus between majority and minority blocs showed signs of collapse, a cable voiced US discontent at Paris’ supposed volte-face. “Abandoning the [former Prime Minister Rafik] Hariri focused Lebanon policy of Jacques Chirac is one thing (arguably even a good thing),” a September 2007 cable said. “But the Sarkozy team looks to us to be on the verge of jettisoning the very pro-independence fundamentals that led to some of the most noteworthy accomplishments of the last several years: Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon, the closure of Syria’s intelligence offices here, the deployment of the [Lebanese Army] to the south, the expansion of UNIFIL, elections free of Syrian interference, establishment of the [Special Tribunal for Lebanon] and so forth.” The cable accused allies of Free Patriotic Movement Leader Michel Aoun – whose movement is allied with Hizbullah – of threatening civil war should a compromise not be reached. It also accused France of succumbing to “the shameless fear-mongering by March 8-Aoun figures … Instead of condemning this intimidation, the French … shudder in fear and then rush to embrace the idea of compromise.” – P. G.

Assad: 'No one wants strife in Lebanon'
Syrian president says ‘there is no Saudi-Syrian initiative per se’ to resolve Lebanese crisis
By Agence France Presse (AFP) and The Daily Star
Friday, December 10, 2010
PARIS: Syrian President Bashar Assad said Thursday that no one wants civil strife in Lebanon, amid tensions ahead of indictments over the 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. “No one wants there to be clashes, fitna [strife within the Muslim community], between Lebanese,” Assad said after lunchtime talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy centered on Lebanon, for decades dominated by Syria. Assad also highlighted his country did not want to meddle in Lebanese affairs concerning the current deadlock over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). Asked about an eventual Syrian-Saudi initiative in Lebanon, Assad said his country and Saudi Arabia were helping the Lebanese find solutions to the deadlock. “There is no Saudi-Syrian initiative per se,” he told reporters. “The solution can only be Lebanese, it can be neither Syrian, nor Saudi, nor French. Hariri was assassinated in a massive car bombing in Beirut that killed 22 others, and the UN-backed STL tasked with finding who was responsible has said it will issue indictments “very soon.” The killing led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops who had been in neighboring Lebanon since the early days of the devastating 1975-1990 Civil War. Several foreign media have reported that the tribunal will indict members of Hizbullah, Syria’s strongest ally in Lebanon. The group has warned any such accusation would have grave repercussions in Lebanon. Assad traveled to Saudi Arabia in October to discuss Lebanese tensions heightened by the UN-backed probe into the Hariri killing. Assad said that his country, and Saudi Arabia and France, were coordinating on Lebanon. But he reiterated that a solution ought to be a purely Lebanese one. “We [Syrians] don’t want to intervene, we don’t want to interfere in an internal Lebanese situation,” Assad said. Tackling the peace process, Assad said Israel was not a peace partner, while also slamming an Israeli law requiring a referendum ahead of a withdrawal from Arab lands occupied since 1967.
“This Israeli position is completely unacceptable from a legal point of view,” Assad said of the November 23 law, following talks with Sarkozy. The law requires any government signing a peace deal that cedes territory in occupied East Jerusalem or the Golan Heights, seized from Syria in 1967, to secure approval either from parliament or a referendum.
It would not affect territorial concessions within the occupied West Bank or the Gaza Strip. With peace talks stalled as Israel continues to authorize settlement building in the West Bank, Assad said that US mediation efforts should not be blamed. “Before blaming the sponsor, you have to blame the concerned parties. Today, we notice that there is no Israeli peace partner,” he said. Assad added that he was opposed to the issue of Jewish settlement building on occupied Arab land being at the center of peace talks. – AFP, with The Daily Star

Sfeir: Suspected spies should face trial or be freed
By The Daily Star /Thursday, December 09, 2010
BEIRUT: Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir said Tuesday individuals arrested on suspicion of spying for Israel should be either put on trial or released if proven innocent. The prelate added that justice must be served if the suspects are found guilty. Sfeir made his remarks before a delegation of the detainees’ families who submitted its complaints to the patriarch condemning the alleged mistreatment of those arrested on suspicion of collaborating with the Mossad. Speaking on behalf of the delegation, Sofia Diab said violations against detainees included the extension of their arrest beyond 48 hours, banning lawyers from meeting their clients and subjecting suspects to torture during investigations. “We express our regrets after hearing your statements, and if this is true then it is in violation of laws and justice and thus we demand that justice takes its course and those arrested should be put on trial and freed if proved innocent,” Sfeir said. “But if they are found guilty of harming the state then they should of course be punished and justice should take its course. This our demand and no one is demanding otherwise,” he added. The issue of violations by the Information Branch of the Internal Security Forces against those arrested on suspicion of collaborating with Israel follows a heated debate between the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and the branch over the arrest of former General Fayez Karam. Karam, a senior FPM official, was arrested in August on suspicion of spying for Israel’s intelligence services but the FPM hasargued that investigations by the Information Branch involved legal violations because the establishment of the branch was illegitimate. FPM officials also argue that political motives were behind Karam’s arrest by the Information Branch.
However, the judiciary, along with ISF officials, has refuted such claims, underlining that investigations were carried out in line with legal norms. – The Daily Star

Murr: Try those who called me a traitor
Defense Minister reacts to WikiLeaks, says he will not attend Cabinet until issue addressed
By Patrick Galey /Daily Star staff
Friday, December 10, 2010
BEIRUT: Defense Minister Elias Murr called Thursday for the trial of anyone who labeled him a traitor after he was implicated in WikiLeaks revelations.
“Who will try those who are accusing other Lebanese of treason only because they hold a different opinion?” Murr asked in a statement, in reference to some MPs and media outlets who had accused him of treason. A diplomatic cable obtained by whistle blowing website WikiLeaks alleges Murr advised US officials how to ensure a fresh Israeli onslaught on Lebanon would weaken Hizbullah while protecting the Lebanese Army and civilian Christian areas. He vowed not to attend a Cabinet meeting until action was taken against those who leveled accusations of treachery at him. “I refuse to attend any Cabinet session that will not address the issue of trying the ones who are continually threatening violence and civil strife,” Murr said. “This issue must be added to the [Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL)] ‘false witnesses’ issue.” The Cabinet has not met for a month as the debate continues over STL “false witnesses,” which opposition lawmakers want to see stand trial before the Judicial Council. March 14 figures would prefer trial by regular judiciary.
Murr joined US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman in commenting on the fallout from leaked cables concerning Lebanon.
Feltman, who was Lebanon’s US Ambassador between January 2004 and July 2008 and has been mentioned in dozens of intercepted cables, said that the documents were being used to harm US interests in Lebanon. “WikiLeaks cables are being used to achieve political gains in Lebanon and to harm US-Lebanon relations,” Feltman told reporters in a telephone conference call. “I am truly worried by the dangers that will hang on those Lebanese nationalists who were working in the interest of their state and are now being threatened because they tried to establish strong relations between our countries,” he said. Feltman also addressed Lebanon’s heightened tensions surrounding the UN-backed probe into the 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. “The problem in Lebanon is not with the STL but with those who are threatening, with violence, to stop the path of justice,” Feltman said.
One of the most potentially combustible Lebanon cables intercepted by WikiLeaks detailed a May 2008 meeting between one time Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal and former US Ambassador to Lebanon David Satterfield, in which the prince is alleged to have countenanced an “Arab Force,” backed up by US naval and aerial support to remove Hizbullah from Lebanon. Both the Riyadh administration and Arab League chief Amr Moussa reacted to the cable in question.
“These reports are based on lies because the Saudi Prince [Saud Faisal] was in collaboration with us trying to stop the fighting in May 2008,” Moussa told pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat. “The confusion is between two separate subjects – and discussions that happened [concerned sending] peacekeeping forces to Sudan and Somalia and not to send any Arab force to Lebanon. Whatever WikiLeaks reported on Prince Faisal, I did not have any knowledge of it. The reports are not true at all.” The spokesperson of the Saudi Foreign Ministry Osama al-Naqli, in remarks published Thursday, said the WikiLeaks cables “do not concern” his regime. “These cables do not concern Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia does not have any role in the release of these cables. This means that Saudi Arabia cannot comment on the cables. Saudi Arabia’s stance is always clear,” Naqli was quoted as saying.

Hariri raps efforts to paralyze government
By The Daily Star
Friday, December 10, 2010
BEIRUT: Prime Minister Saad Hariri said Thursday attempts to paralyze the government were disrupting “positive” Saudi-Syrian dialogue concerning resolving Lebanon’s political impasse.
“The disruption of the state … is first and foremost a disruption of a positive and successful dialogue between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Syria to preserve stability in our country,” Hariri said during the award ceremony of the Arab Thought Foundation. Hariri said paralyzing dialogue, the decision-making process and the administration dealt a blow to the stability sought by Syria and Saudi Arabia. Lebanon’s two main power brokers have been mediating efforts to solve the deadlock over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, probing the 2005 assassination of Hariri’s father, statesman Rafik Hariri. The Netherlands-based court is set to indict Hizbullah in the 2005 assassination of senior Hariri. Hizbullah has blatantly rejected the court and said it will “cut off the hand” anyone that tries to arrest anyone its members. Hariri said while “political crises are an integral part of our democratic life and democratic system,” he refuses that the Lebanese are held hostage to the current political struggle. “It is impermissible and unacceptable to take the Lebanese people, their interests and affairs, as hostages to the political struggle,” he said. Hariri’s Cabinet has not met since November 10 over the issue of “false witnesses,” which the March 8 coalition accuse of misleading the probe into
Hariri’s assassination. The March 8 coalition demand that “false witnesses” be referred to Lebanon’s highest court the Judicial Council, while the prime minister and his allies argue that the issue ought to be handled by regular judiciary. Hariri said he would endure, as his father did before him, “the defamation, yelling and insults, in order to continue working for the sake of Lebanon and its people.” He called on rival groups to put their differences aside and abide by the Constitution and the Cabinet’s platform in order to serve the needs of citizens.
Hariri accused Israel of working to paralyze Lebanon on all levels. “The enemy wants our country to be paralyzed and our citizens to be economically, socially, intellectually and culturally exhausted,” he said. Hariri, however, vowed to pursue efforts to achieve stability and resort to dialogue to solve domestic problems and so that Lebanon remains a place “for the freedom of thought, expression, and creativity.” – The Daily Star

Lebanon needs a breath of fresh air
Daily Star/Friday, December 10, 2010
The university sector and the business community have joined forces to act on the question of air pollution in Lebanon. They are launching a study that will be conducted by van in Greater Beirut, to monitor vehicle emissions and the wider issue of air quality. A day earlier, the American University of Beirut, which is involved in the van study, warned that air pollution is unsafe in the capital, as the AUB team behind the effort focused on the danger posed by carbon emissions, related to having too many cars on the roads.
Meanwhile, government officials from around the world are gathering in Cancun, to grapple with pressing environmental issues, such as climate change and the worrying role of carbon emissions in this phenomenon. One might think that with all the environment-related problems of late, whether in Lebanon or the region, politicians might have sat up and taken notice. It’s a daunting challenge to face, but there are several areas of concern in Lebanon: water quality, susceptibility to fires and the loss of green spaces, the air people breathe, and the country’s dumps, landfills and quarrying. Amid all of these alarm bells, politicians are often occupied elsewhere. There has been a pledge to improve the ratios of the energy sector, to reduce the percentage of polluting energy in the mix. However, the latest signals from AUB indicate that the problem doesn’t seem to be near a solution, but might be getting worse.
The new study will focus on roads and highways, one of the obvious culprits. Is it too much to expect politicians to focus on this vital yet needlessly chaotic sector? Instead of fighting over civil service posts, and which sect gets to fill them, and whose prerogatives will be bolstered in a petty turf war, can politicians get serious about a policy item such as ensuring the country doesn’t have too many cars on its roads? Anyone who drives from the mountains around Beirut into the capital takes a dip into an ugly layer of brown smog – the evidence is already there, even before AUB completes its latest study. In other countries, taking steps to reduce air pollution levels is something that is actually debated, seriously, and then implemented, and finally followed-up. In Lebanon, there are hardly any serious plans for how to deal with next month, or worse, trivial personal interests block any process of improving governance.
Ruin the country’s landscape by giving out licenses to parties that harm the environment? No problem. Mismanage water resources? Fine. Allow fires to ravage vitally-important green spaces? Why not? Instead of talking so much about the dangers posed by Israel and Iran, politicians should remember the environmental degradation that has afflicted these two states, which are even more capable of fending off disaster than the dysfunctional system in Lebanon.
 

Al-Akhbar newspaper shuts down website following hack attack
By The Daily Star /Friday, December 10, 2010
BEIRUT: The website of Al-Akhbar newspaper, which has been publishing leaked US diplomatic cables, has been shut down following a hacker attack, an editor said Thursday. Omar Nashabe, a member of Al-Akhbar’s editorial board, said the newspaper’s website was hacked at 5 am Thursday in an attack linked to the newspaper’s political line. “Al-Akhbar’s computer engineers and scientists are investigating the attack to determine who might be the perpetrators,” Nashabe told The Daily Star. Asked who might be behind the hacking, he said he does not want to accuse anyone before the probe is concluded. Despite being an outspoken critic of some Gulf Arab states, Nashabe said: “Al-Akhbar has no problem with any Arab country. But if any country is to be suspected of responsibility for the attack, Israel is the primary suspect.” Nashabe, a criminal justice analyst, said it was not the first time his newspaper was targeted. He recalled that the paper’s correspondent in south Lebanon had been killed by an Israeli shell this year, while another reporter was briefly detained by Lebanese authorities for writing an article about Defense Minister Elias Murr. The privately owned Al-Akhbar is close to Hizbullah and its allies in the March 8 camp. Al-Akhbar claims to have obtained an advance copy of secret US diplomatic cables from the whistle-blowing website WikiLeaks and has been publishing them since last week. – The Daily Star

Egypt after Mubarak
by Lee Smith/Middle East Quarterly
Fall 2010, pp. 79-83
http://www.meforum.org/2792/egypt-after-mubarak
The Middle East Quarterly is pleased to inaugurate a new section dedicated to the region's current affairs. Written by scholars, journalists, and practitioners, Dateline offers succinct analyses of recent trends. Its main focus will be capitals and flashpoints, but it will offer regular reporting from the United States where many of the Middle East's political issues are played out, and from Europe where Muslim communities have an increasingly prominent role. This feature begins with an article by Lee Smith on the imminent succession problem in Egypt as seen from Washington. —The Editors
Gamal Mubarak may not be entirely interested in following his father Husni as Egypt's president. His background is in finance and economics, and some analysts suggest that politics leave him cold.
As the Obama administration crosses its fingers in the hope that an Iraq currently without a government will somehow stabilize and justify the American blood and money spent over the last seven years, Washington has started to turn its attention to what has historically been one of Baghdad's rival centers of Arab power—Cairo.
A Democratic Hereditary Succession?
Things are changing in Egypt as well, for barring any last-minute surprises, the ailing 82-year-old president, Husni Mubarak, is reportedly on the verge of enjoying the highest privilege afforded Arab rulers—to die in bed of natural causes. It seems almost certain that he will be succeeded by his second son, Gamal, the 46-year-old, one-time London financier.[1] The speculation inside the Beltway is that either Gamal will replace his father on the ruling National Democratic Party's (NDP) ticket for next September's presidential elections, or that Husni Mubarak will not last that long and the constitutional process will kick in, paving the way for Gamal's nomination and election.
Another Mubarak would spell continuity of a sort even if it meant an end to nearly six decades of military rule by the "Free Officers" regime. While it is true that Gamal has relationships with the military establishment not only through his father but also by way of intersecting business interests—some Egyptian industries are essentially military-run concessions—the fact remains that he is not a military man. "To be part of the military establishment is not just about your connections or family," says Muhammad Elmenshawy, Washington bureau chief for the independently owned Egyptian daily newspaper Al-Shorouk. "It means that you've worn a uniform, or you've fought in a war. Gamal is a complete outsider."
This perhaps raises a historical analogy: The Mamluk sultans (1260-1517) tried to get their non-slave sons to succeed them and sometimes managed it, but they were not from the military slave caste and eventually petered out, to be replaced by a proper Mamluk. The bulk of Gamal's task, at least early on, may be to ensure that history does not repeat itself.
Most Washington officials are comfortable with Gamal and see no fundamental change in the U.S.-Egyptian relationship on the horizon or adverse effects on the Egyptian-Israeli peace accord that is the foundation of the U.S. position in the eastern Mediterranean. Indeed, the fact that Gamal accompanied his father to the pre-Labor Day peace summit in Washington[2] that also included Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas along with Jordan's King Abdullah II, was read as a signal that the succession issue had been resolved.
Until now, Mubarak has not only declined to appoint a successor, or even name a vice president who would assume the presidency in the event of an emergency, but has also avoided discussing the political prospects of his second son. According to officials from the Bush administration, whenever the president asked after Gamal, the Egyptian ruler would quickly change the subject. It is widely believed that the Egyptian president is less eager to have his son inherit the post than is his mother, the first lady Suzanne Mubarak.
Does Gamal Even Want the Job?
Other U.S. policymakers are not sure that Gamal himself is entirely interested in the job. His background is in finance and economics, subjects that seem to elicit his passion. And indeed, thanks largely to Gamal and his cadre of technocrats in the NDP, the Egyptian economy has enjoyed a period of growth for half a decade or more. Even as little of the wealth has trickled down to improve the lot of the poor—20 percent of Egyptians live in abject poverty, and 60 percent live on $2 a day—the thriving economy has changed middle-class perceptions. Egyptian parents, Elmenshawy explains, are less impressed these days when their daughters are courted by members of the military and security establishment and more apt to be swayed by young men who have made careers in banking, telecommunications, or the big real estate deals taking place in New Cairo.
If Gamal cares about the economy, this seems to come at the expense of his interest in politics, a topic that leaves him cold or, in the words of someone who has been in the room with him, brain dead. This is a dangerous liability for a man required to keep in check competing centers of domestic power—including the Muslim Brotherhood, the Egyptian military, and the intelligence services (mukhabarat)—and regional actors while also accommodating his U.S. benefactors without aggravating an Egyptian population that has always been, at best, wary of U.S. influence in the Middle East. On the other hand, it is possible he has just learned well from his father, the stone-faced former Air Force commander who has steered the Free Officers' regime on a steady course for almost thirty years between the radicalism that devastated Nasser's Egypt and the then-startling accommodations with the United States and Israel that got Sadat killed. And so the question in Washington is, what will this transitional Egypt look like?
"The physical decline of Husni Mubarak coincides with the decline of Egypt as a regional actor," says David Schenker of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Never mind the fact that Iran sets the region's political tempo while Qatar and Dubai's satellite TV networks have eclipsed Cairo's as the region's media capital. "Egypt can't even get a veto on upstream Nile development projects anymore from upstream African riparian states, like Ethiopia."
Michele Dunne of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace agrees that the Cairo regime is not what it once was. "Domestic affairs take up so much time that Egypt is far less able to play an effective role in regional affairs. Even the succession issue itself preoccupies them and absorbs energy. Egyptian influence is much less than it was even twenty years ago though part of that is because other Arab states have caught up in terms of education and communication and moved past Egypt in terms of development. But Egypt just can't present a compelling model, a compelling argument, or philosophy that other Arabs want to imitate."
The Egyptian opposition, says Dunne, is another matter. "Look at Kifaya, which started in 2004, and then the way Facebook took off and rallied people. These things inspired imitators around the region. Egypt is still an important country that other Arabs look up to, but its energies ensue not from the government but from those that are opposed to government."
Competition from Mohamed ElBaradei
To be sure, one of the biggest stories surrounding the succession issue is Mohamed ElBaradei's decision to challenge the regime with his unofficial campaign. Even as the Nobel Peace Prize winner and former International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief is not—not yet anyway—a member of a political party and thus not eligible to run in next fall's elections, his presence has generated attention both inside and outside Egypt.
"There's a weird infatuation with Baradei," says Steven Cook at the Council on Foreign Relations, referring to fawning notices in U.S. press outlets including The Washington Post and The New Yorker. "But in a fairly bleak political environment lacking charisma, Baradei shakes things up. He says, 'I am not going to run unless I can be assured of free and fair elections,' and this really throws a monkey wrench into the system and shakes up Gamal's claims to legitimacy."
"I like the idea of Baradei," says Schenker. "I like the idea of an ostensible liberal. Baradei came along and said things openly, and no one could touch him. He seems to be in the vanguard of a political culture that is less fearful of the government." Nonetheless, explains the former Bush administration Pentagon official, ElBaradei wouldn't be particularly palatable in Washington. "He politicized the IAEA, oversaw the nuclearization of Iran, and maintains that Israel is the most dangerous state in the Middle East," says Schenker.
Given that ElBaradei was comfortable working with the Islamists who govern Iran, it is hardly surprising that he has joined forces with Egypt's own Islamists, the Muslim Brotherhood, in order to focus on political reform.[3] Presumably the Brotherhood is happy to let ElBaradei take the lead since his previous employment and profile afford him international political protection not extended to the Islamists. The Brotherhood, says Joshua Stacher, an assistant professor at Kent State, is not going to make a big deal out of the succession.
"I have talked about it with them exhaustively, including senior leadership," says Stacher, who has done extensive research on the movement. "All oppose an inherited succession in principle, but they will not mobilize in an organized way, and there will be no overt signs of discontent. Presidential succession is extremely important to the elites in Egypt, and the Muslim Brotherhood doesn't want to challenge them on something they hold this close to their hearts. They all think it's unjust but, as one told me, 'at the moment of the transfer of power, the Brothers will be silent.'"
In exchange, says Stacher, the Brotherhood is not exactly expecting a quid pro quo. "The MB is not going to be handed the keys to the parliament, but they're not going to be shut out completely either," he explains. "Gamal or whoever becomes president will have to renegotiate with a large array of interests and social forces, which includes the Muslim Brotherhood."
Consolidating Power and Shifting Allies
Indeed, Washington policymakers and analysts concur that the real campaigning will take place after Gamal becomes president rather than before. "Arab leaders are always most vulnerable just when they take office," says Stacher. "They are busy consolidating power and eliminating enemies."
The two most obvious, and recent, examples are Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and Jordan's King Abdullah II, both of whom also followed their fathers. According to press accounts and contemporary scholarship, both Abdullah and Bashar spent a considerable amount of energy during their early years at the helm building their power bases and eliminating the so-called "old guard" remnants from their fathers' diwans. However, the fact is that both Bashar's and Abdullah's paths to power passed directly through regime strongholds. Abdullah was the commander of the Hashemite Kingdom's special forces, an elite unit that ensures the regime's survival; and Bashar was handed the extremely sensitive Lebanon portfolio, which during the years of the Syrian occupation was essentially Damascus' ATM, feathering the nests of the country's numerous security chiefs.
Unlike those two soon-to-be peers, Gamal has no such foundations in regime management, which is why so many believe that Omar Suleiman, chief of Egypt's General Intelligence, is the man to watch. While it had been rumored that Suleiman was another presidential possibility, and still may be, he is ineligible, right now anyway, since he is without membership in a political party. At any rate, the key issue is where Suleiman stands on Gamal, and whether or not he will stick his neck out for a novice with no military or security credentials tasked to run what is still a military regime. Certainly the $1.3 billion in U.S. military assistance to Egypt is evidence that Washington, however happy with the country's recent economic performance, still sees Cairo as such.
Perhaps a more useful question is, how does Cairo see itself? In a sense, Mubarak was only continuing Sadat's work of extricating Egypt from troublesome regional issues, especially the Arab-Israeli conflict, as it went from frontline combatant to peacemaker and mediator. Gamal is likely to wish for more of the same inward turn and to focus on the economy, but the Middle East has its own energies and forces to which an untested leader, one at the helm of the largest Arab state, may be especially vulnerable.
The main issue right now is Iran, which has effectively patterned itself after Nasser's Egypt in its struggle to build a regional hegemony and challenge the U.S.-backed order, which presently includes Egypt and the other "moderate" Arab states along with Israel. The Egyptian masses might be infatuated with Iran, says Elmenshawy, "but the elites see it as anti-Western and isolated from the rest of the world. It is not an appealing model for them." Still, Cairo has decided to restart its own nuclear program but understands that the prospect of an Iranian bomb is only one aspect of Tehran's regional strategy. Even without a nuclear weapon, Iran is dangerous to Egypt through its allies and assets, from Syria to Hezbollah, and especially Hamas, sitting on Egypt's border.
"If I were part of the Egyptian elite," says Stacher, "I'd be most worried about Gaza. If that spills over the border, it can derail everything."
One way to defend against Hamas is to seek to co-opt them as the Turks have tried. And indeed one possibility considered throughout Washington is what might happen if Cairo follows Ankara's lead. If U.S. power is perceived to be on the decline, what if Egypt, like Turkey and Iran, questions some of the assumptions of the U.S. order? Egypt could force the issue with the Israeli nuclear program and could even question demilitarizing the Sinai. It is highly unlikely that the Egyptians would take it as far as making war on Israel, but they could make themselves more obstreperous, just as the Turks have done, such as when they dispatched the "humanitarian flotilla" to Gaza. Now that the Turks are bending to the new regional winds, it is hardly clear that Washington has exacted a price for their behavior or even warned them. That it is acceptable to cross Washington is not a message the United States wants to send its regional allies, especially Egypt, one of the foundations of its Middle East strategy.
From Nasser through the pre-October 1973 Sadat, Washington was accustomed to Egypt being the primary regional power that questioned the U.S. order. Sadat's strategic shift made Egypt one of the pillars of the U.S. camp, which Washington has taken for granted just as it had done with regard to Turkey's strategic orientation. The passing of Mubarak and the rise of his successor, presumably his son, means that the largest Arab state's future orientation can no longer be taken for granted.
Lee Smith is a Senior Editor at The Weekly Standard and the author of The Strong Horse: Power, Politics and the Clash of Arab Civilizations.
[1] Daniel Sobelman, "Gamal Mubarak, President of Egypt?" Middle East Quarterly, Spring 2001, pp. 31-40; "Gamal Mubarak: 'We Need Audacious Leaders,'" Middle East Quarterly, Winter 2009, pp. 67-73.
[2] Ha'artez (Tel Aviv), Aug. 31, 2010.
[3] Ilan Berman, "The Islamist Flirtation," Foreign Policy, Apr. 2, 2010.

Williams discusses plans for Ghajar withdrawal with Hariri
By The Daily Star /Friday, December 10, 2010
BEIRUT: UN Special Coordinator to Lebanon Michael Williams and commander of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) Major-General Alberto Cuevas Asarta discussed Israel’s withdrawal from the border village of Ghajar with Prime Minister Saad Hariri Thursday.
They visited Hariri at the Grand Serail to brief him on their talks in Israel last week.
Last month, the Israeli security cabinet announced its intention to pull out of the northern section of Ghajar, the area falling north of the border Blue Line inside Lebanese territory that has been under Israeli occupation since the 2006 summer war. Ghajar straddles the border between Lebanon and Israeli-occupied Syrian territories.
“We believe that this is an important development and a step forward,” Williams told reporters. “At the same time,” he added, “it is important to highlight this would only be a first step toward resolving the status of Ghajar so that Lebanese sovereignty is fully restored over all Lebanese territory and that the humanitarian requirements of the villagers are met.” Williams and Asarta are scheduled to meet President Michel Sleiman Friday to debrief him on the issue.
Williams told reporters that talks with Hariri also addressed the overall situation in Lebanon.
“I have been concerned by the political deadlock that has prevailed in the country,” said Williams. The UN official said he continued to hope and call on all sides to engage in open dialogue and to use the regular institutions of the state to resolve any differences, irrespective of how sensitive. “There can be no alternatives to this,” said Williams. – The Daily Star
 

U.S. Sanctions 'Two of Hizbullah's Top Financiers in Africa'
Naharnet/The U.S. Treasury Department has said it sanctioned two brothers and their business interests for allegedly doing fundraising for Hizbullah.  Ali Tajideen and Husayn Tajideen, brothers who served as business partners for the previously sanctioned Kassim Tajideen, were targeted along with their business interests in The Gambia, Lebanon, Sierra Leone, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, and the British Virgin Islands. Ali is a former Hizbullah commander in Hanouay, Tyre, Lebanon, and has provided cash to Hizbullah, in tranches as large as $1 million, the Treasury said. Husayn operated primarily in The Gambia. "Today's designation targets two of Hizbullah's top financiers in Africa," said Stuart Levey, undersecretary of the Treasury for terrorism and financial intelligence. "Ali and Husayn Tajideen's multinational network generates millions of dollars in funding and secures strategic geographical strongholds for Hizbullah," he added.

Harb Proposes Solution to Break Impasse, Revive Constitutional Institutions
Naharnet/Labor Minister Butros Harb on Friday suggested the Syrian judiciary to refer the file of a lawsuit filed by Maj. Gen. Jamil Sayyed against Lebanese politicians and other figures to the Lebanese judiciary to prosecute them if they were found guilty. After the release of the indictment by the Lebanese judge, the file would be referred to cabinet to have the final say, Harb said. His proposal came after March 8 forces conditioned attending a cabinet session on having the issue of false witnesses at the top of the agenda. He said he made his proposal to President Michel Suleiman and will suggest it to Prime Minister Saad Hariri to find a way out of the Lebanese crisis and "revive constitutional institutions" which Harb said is threatening security and stability.

Herman von Hebel Appointed Registrar of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon
Naharnet/United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon has appointed Herman von Hebel to the post of Registrar of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.
Von Hebel, is a Dutch national with decades of experience in international law at three tribunals including the STL, as well as for the Government of the Netherlands.
"My appointment comes at a very important time for the STL", said Herman von Hebel. "The tribunal is moving from a predominantly investigative phase towards judicial proceedings, and during this period the Registry will be critical to ensure the smooth running of the court." The Registrar is in effect the Chief Executive of the tribunal and is responsible for all aspects of its administration including the budget, fundraising, relations with states and court management. Von Hebel's extensive brief also includes oversight of the victim participation unit, witness protection and detention facilities. "Herman von Hebel has served international criminal justice for many years with competence and independence," said the President of the Court, Judge Antonio Cassese. "I am sure that in his position he will continue to show great professionalism and integrity." Since March 2010, von Hebel served as the acting Registrar for the STL.
He also served as the Registrar of the Special Court for Sierra Leone and a senior legal officer for the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia.
He was also instrumental in the negotiations of the Rome Statute, which led to the establishment of the International Criminal Court. "Von Hebel's appointment comes as a well-deserved recognition of his efforts to consolidate the work of the Tribunal since its very early days", said the Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare. "I am confident that our shared experience and commitment will be most valuable to further advance the Tribunal's challenging mission." Those sentiments were shared by the Head of the STL's Defense Office, Francois Roux. "It is a good thing for our Tribunal", said Roux. "I am happy to be able to continue working together with him to ensure that the STL remains a model of impartial and fair justice in which the Defense is able to wholly fulfill its mandate."The Special Tribunal for Lebanon was created by the United Nations Security Council, at the request of the Government of Lebanon in 2007. The STL started its work on March 1st 2009 and there are currently 333 members of staff from 62 countries.