Another Targeted Execution of an Assyrian in Mosul
18/03/2010
Assyrian International News Agency
http://www.aina.org/news/20100317201629.htm
Baghdad (AsiaNews) -- Another targeted execution of an Iraqi Christians in Mosul, northern Iraq. This morning, an armed commando killed a businessman aged 55, married and father of a child. Meanwhile, the Iraqi Electoral Commission has scrutinized the 80% of the votes. According to an AFP projection it will be a head-to-head between Allawi and al-Maliki, with a slight margin of advantage for the former premier, who came to power after the fall of Saddam Hussein.
The murder took place this morning in the neighbourhood of al Saa, near the monastery of the Dominican fathers. Sabah Yacoub Adam, 55, married and father of a child, was shot down in cold blood. Sources for AsiaNews in Mosul report that he was a Chaldean Catholic, owner of a glass factory and lived in the Arab area of the city, to the left of the river Tigris.
Today's shooting is just the latest in a long trail of blood that has forced hundreds of Christian families to flee the city toward the plain of Nineveh or abroad. A spiral of violence that grew in the weeks preceding the parliamentary elections of 7 March, so much so that Msgr. Emil Shimoun Nona, Chaldean archbishop of Mosul, spoke of an "Endless Via Crucis".
Meanwhile, the Iraqi Electoral Commission continues to scrutinise votes with now 80% of the ballots counted. An Afp a projection released yesterday shows a head to head between the current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and former interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawy, head of the government between May 2004 and April 2005.
The projection assigns 87 seats to two lists of candidates, about 310 of which make up the Iraqi parliament. The Iraqi National Alliance, which brings together the Shia religious parties, follows in third place with 67 seats and the list that combines the two major Kurdish parties is at 38 seats. Of the 310, 15 will be reserved for religious minorities in the country, including Christians.
Based on the number of votes obtained, which supports Allawi's secular bloc - the list al-Iraqiya - has collected 2,102,981 votes, with a margin of 8984 votes ahead of the coalition led by al-Maliki, the State of Law (2039 .997). The Shiite religious parties have obtained 1,597,937 votes and the Kurdish bloc 1,132,154.
The current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has the greater consensus in Baghdad, the largest basin in the allocation of seats, and six Shiite-majority areas. Allawi, however, despite being a Shia Muslim has a wide margin of advantage in four Sunni-majority areas. The secular vision and the support of Sunnis and Shiites have rewarded the program proposed by the former Prime Minister.
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Deconstructing the Wahhab assault
Michael Young,
Now Lebanon/ March 18, 2010
The embattled president needs to fight for his political survival. (Archive)
You have to feel sorry for President Michel Sleiman. Here he is doing his very best to satisfy all sides, and what does he get in return? An invitation to resign from Syria through one of its local megaphones, Wiam Wahhab.
Perhaps Sleiman will soon wake up to the fact that he is in a battle for his political survival. He has no choice but to fight back, and there are few ways to do so better than to play confessional politics. He needs to stiffen his back by garnering stronger Christian, particularly Maronite, support; he needs to portray all attacks against him as attacks against the Christians in general; and he really needs to move beyond the quaint notion that he can remain above the fray, and instead tighten his alliances with those having a stake in defending him against his enemies.
Sleiman’s only hope is to bargain with Damascus from a position of relative strength, not to benignly try to dodge Syrian bullets.
It’s remarkable the extent to which some Maronite leaders are willing to be used by Syria and its followers against one another. Wahhab’s broadside against Sleiman came after his meeting with Michel Aoun in Rabieh. Although Aoun’s media outlet, OTV, reported that the assault had taken the general by surprise, he has done everything possible in the past year and a half to undermine the president’s position. Deep down Aoun still harbors the hope that Sleiman might somehow be pushed out of office, and that he, Aoun, will sit in the chair he’s coveted for two decades.
The Syrian-led campaign against Sleiman has been linked to the president’s recent invitation to renew the national dialogue sessions. That’s part of it, but the greater part is that Syria is, simply, pursuing its plan to wreck any semblance of a functioning, cohesive Lebanese state – its ultimate objective being to reassert Syrian political control in Beirut.
Understandably, the Syrians feel confident. This week the US Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee held hearings to approve the appointment of Robert Ford as the new American ambassador to Syria. The relations between the Syrians and the Saudis are also improving, amid signs that Riyadh is willing to give President Bashar al-Assad a relatively wide berth to maneuver in Lebanon. Damascus has even asked the Saudis to pressure their Lebanese allies into being more compliant with Syrian wishes.
Syria seeks to avert, in particular, the emergence of a political axis between Michel Sleiman and Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Not only would coordination between the president and prime minister make it more difficult for Damascus to shape government decisions; it could also reinforce Sunni-Christian ties, which is what the Syrians spent most of their years in Lebanon trying to avoid. The overriding reason why Wahhab called on the president to resign when he did was probably that Hariri came to the president’s defense while on a visit to Germany.
In parallel, the Syrians have also started turning their guns against the leader of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea. Breaking the Sunni-Christian bond is at the forefront of Syrian thinking, but also preventing the consolidation of a Christian consensus around politicians seeking to decisively move Lebanon away from Syrian hegemony. With Walid Jumblatt set to visit Damascus soon, and politically vulnerable to Syrian injunctions, Bashar al-Assad now has more means at his disposal to break apart the alliances that once held the March 14 coalition together.
Strangely enough, this provides opportunities for Michel Sleiman. His relationship with Geagea is not close; both are competing to an extent over Christian sympathy; but both also have an interest in standing together to avoid falling divided. And in this they will have the approval of Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir. Outside the Christian community, Saad Hariri, keen to avoid being undercut by Syria and its allies, will welcome such a development. A weak president is an albatross around the prime minister’s neck. But until, and unless, Sleiman anchors himself among his own coreligionists, he will remain an ineffective head of state.
Wahhab’s statement was, effectively, a declaration of war, but also an invitation to Sleiman to side more openly with Syria’s allies. “[A]fter two years of rule we feel like we are in the last days of the presidency,” he said. How right he was, if for all the wrong reasons. Unless the president counterattacks, Wahhab’s cynical description will be borne out.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut.

Truth behind Lebanese Police Training: U.S. Proud of Program, Lebanese Split
Naharnet/While Hizbullah and its allies dub it a "security agreement" between the United States and Internal Security Forces, the March 14 alliance calls it a "training and equipment American donation" program to Lebanese police. Each naming, however, has a political dimension associated with a five-year dispute over who would have the upper hand on Lebanon, knowing that each political team uses all possible means, including media campaigns and political propaganda, in their confrontation, including enlarging issues in order to tarnish the image of its opponent. The new issue raised by some media outlets has moved to Parliament corners at a time the U.S. embassy in Awkar remained silent.
The story began Jan. 25, 2007 at the Paris-3 International Conference on the support for Lebanon when donor states granted financial and technical aide to Lebanon.
The U.S. has committed itself to providing $86 million to the ISF, including training of officers and soldiers, and equipment needed by the internal security forces to carry out its duties. During two separate Cabinet sessions under then Prime Minister Fouad Saniora Feb. 8 and 20, 2007, Lebanon approved decisions taken by Paris-3, and the government tasked police chief Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi to negotiate with donors in the United States to clinch an agreement that includes details of the donation. Talks dragged on until Sept. 2007 when a draft agreement was reached and Rifi handed it over to the premiership.
A Cabinet session set for Oct. 4, 2007, however, failed to approve the draft deal due to lack of quorum for travel reasons and the resignation of five Cabinet ministers at the time.
Consequently, Saniora held a series of consultative ministerial meetings that resulted in signing a "Declaration of Intent" which gave the Lebanese government the right to take it back in a period of 90 days pending conclusion of a deal in Cabinet. On October 9 of the same year, Cabinet approved the agreement which was signed by Rifi in line with Constitutional mechanisms.
But opponents of Saniora and his political team speak of Constitutional violations. They argue that international treaties constitutionally fall within the jurisdiction of the President of the Republic. March 14 replies that what was signed was not an international treaty, but a donation agreement. As far as security is concerned, March 14 foes charge that Saniora and his government "left the door wide open" for U.S. intelligence by placing data related to Lebanon's two mobile phone networks at the disposal of the United States.
March 14 alliance hits back, saying the data related to the cellular networks is no secret since the system is above ground and anyone can see this in the naked eye. As for fears of U.S. eavesdropping and transfer of information to Israel, this is not justified for several reasons, mainly because spying on the cellular network, assuming it did happen, cannot nail Hizbullah or its leaders or track down their activities because the group has its own phone network which works separately from the government-installed phone system.
Under the agreement, training should not include "terrorist elements" and equipment should not fall into the hands of "terrorists." This is not exceptional in the way the U.S. deals with Lebanon. Thus, throwing accusations at Saniora and the ISF, accusing them of adopting the "U.S. concept of terrorism" is inappropriate. Amid the inter-Lebanese bickering, the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon remained silent since the controversy erupted three weeks ago. Naharnet, however, visited the embassy in Awkar and met with several officials who expressed pride in their program. "We are proud of our program ... so why should we respond?" one U.S. embassy official told Naharnet. Beirut, 18 Mar 10, 12:36

Baroud Defending Suleiman: Is It Required That He Stops Being All of Lebanon President?
Naharnet/Interior Minister Ziad Baroud on Thursday condemned "the campaign against the presidency," wondering: "Is it required that he stops being all of Lebanon president?"
Speaking to reporters at the parliament, Baroud played down the "campaign against the Internal Security Forces," saying he does not believe it is being subjected to any campaign.
On the other hand, Baroud stressed "the ministry is ready to hold the municipal elections under the current law," and noted that the State is "before reforms and not mere amendments," in a remark clearly addressed to head of administration and justice parliamentary committee MP Robert Ghanem. "Proportional representation, as an idea, is by itself of reformist nature in addition to preprinted ballot papers and women's quota," he added. Beirut, 18 Mar 10, 16:25

Moussa Hopes Lebanon Would Receive Libya Summit Invitation, Says Sadr Issue Not on Agenda
Naharnet/Arab League chief Amr Moussa was on Thursday still hopeful that Lebanon would receive an invitation through the proper diplomatic channels to attend the Arab summit in Libya. During a joint press conference with Foreign Minister Ali al-Shami, Moussa said: "Yesterday, we discussed with Speaker Nabih Berri about hope and he is the leader of Amal (hope) movement.""Yes, there is still hope," he said in response to a question. The Arab League chief denied that he had delivered Lebanon the invitation to attend the summit.
Asked if he believed Libyan leader Moammer Qadhafi would expel the Lebanese community if Beirut decides to boycott the summit, Moussa said: "The issue will be discussed by the Lebanese cabinet. I don't want to interfere in it. However, I hope that all Arab countries participate in the summit." He denied that the issue of Imam Moussa al-Sadr's disappearance was on the summit's agenda. Al-Shami explained to reporters that a draft resolution issued by Arab foreign ministers ahead of the summit includes an article that calls for "solidarity with the Lebanese Republic." The article includes two clauses. The first is on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and the second backs efforts to find out the truth about Sadr's disappearance.
"This is an article in a resolution. It is not an article on the agenda" of the summit, Moussa stressed. He also said Sadr's issue wouldn't be discussed if Lebanon decided not to attend the summit. The two men also discussed the issue of Palestinian refugees, U.N. Security Council resolution 1701 and Israeli evasiveness not to implement it, al-Shami told reporters.
Beirut, 18 Mar 10, 13:57

Campaign against Suleiman Reflects Syria's Resentment over National Dialogue Timing, Outline
Naharnet/The campaign against President Michel Suleiman was seen as a drive orchestrated by Syria's allies in Lebanon that could well pave the way for the launch of a new group of Damascus allies made up of non-parliamentary members. An-Nahar newspaper on Thursday, citing well-informed political sources, said the campaign against Suleiman and several government institutions is organized by a number of political allies of Syria who intend to form a new "radical" group made up of figures who do not belong to parliamentary blocs.
The sources said the new group aims to "impose fresh conditions" on Lebanon's pro-government leaders in light of regional developments that would provide Damascus with a "higher margin" that would help it hold, once again, the upper hand over Lebanon.  Criticism reached its peak Wednesday when former Cabinet Minister Wiam Wahab called on Suleiman to resign. The political sources pointed out that while Wahab's call for Suleiman's resignation does not necessarily mean that all of Syria's allies should adopt this demand, they said one cannot, at the same time, turn a blind eye to political realities. They said these realities led to the "distribution of roles" in an organized campaign through which messages of resentment by Syria and its allies in Lebanon were launched in protest of the timing of dialogue which came immediately after the Syrian-Iranian summit, in addition to a dispute that arose during the dialogue session over the deletion of the word "resistance" from a clause from the final statement. The campaign began with Suleiman's visit to the U.S. It mounted when the President announced the establishment of a National Dialogue Committee and called for the resumption of all-party talks to discuss the defense strategy. The anti-President protests also coincided with a similar campaign against Prime Minister Saad Hariri over the issue of the so-called "security agreement" with the United States. Beirut, 18 Mar 10, 08:39

No Decision Yet on Lebanon's Libya Summit Participation
Naharnet/Cabinet failed to take a decision with regard to Lebanon's participation in the Arab League summit to be held in Libya end of March. Information Minister Tareq Mitri said following the meeting late Wednesday that the issue of representation will be discussed during a Cabinet session to be held Thursday under President Michel Suleiman at Baabda Palace. Ministerial sources told the daily AN-Nahar in remarks published Thursday that the issue of the campaign against Suleiman was raised during the session. They said Labor Minister Butros Harb demanded Cabinet take a stance on this issue. But State Minister and Marada representative Youssef Saadeh argued that Cabinet is not entitled to respond to any individual. State Minister for Administrative Development Mohammed Fneish, in turn, believed that taking a stance in this regard would "only aggravate the issue." Beirut, 18 Mar 10, 10:08

Salam Expresses Dismay at March 14 Bristol Statement
Naharnet/MP Tamam Salam said his participation in a meeting of March 14 forces at the Bristol Hotel was in response to an invitation from the March 14 coalition "and their insistence that I attend." It was the first time Salam attends March 14 meetings. "I could have apologized, but I did not find an excuse for apology, particularly since PM Hariri was scheduled to attend and I was surprised when he did not show up," Salam said in remarks published Thursday by the daily As-Safir. Salam stressed that he considers himself not far from March 14 forces, pointing to his previous alliance with the coalition during parliamentary elections. However, he expressed dismay over the coalition's statement issued after the Bristol meeting on March 14. "Had I known that the statement is going to be radical, perhaps I wouldn't have participated," Salam said. Beirut, 18 Mar 10, 14:40

Marjayoun Police Arrest Saudi Allegedly Spying for Israel
Naharnet/Police in Marjayoun have arrested a Saudi allegedly spying for the Israeli Mossad, An Nahar daily reported Thursday. The newspaper said that on Wednesday a police patrol near the barbed wire that separates Lebanon from Israel noticed a man hiding behind a rock on the Lebanese side of the border and speaking with an Israeli army patrol.
When the suspect saw the Lebanese patrol, he tried to escape to the Israeli side. However, Marjayoun police seized the man, who was identified as Jawad bin Fahd al-Issa.
The suspect smashed his mobile phone before his arrest, An Nahar said. Investigation revealed that al-Issa had arrived in Lebanon from Jordan a week ago. He told investigators that he was depressed and wanted to commit suicide. So he decided to head to southern Lebanon to lure Israelis into killing him. Al-Issa was handed over to the Lebanese army because the military is responsible for the area where he was arrested. The Saudi Okaz newspaper said the suspect is called Mohammed bin Jawad al-Issa. He was contacting the Israeli army to escape to the Palestinian territories, it reported. The daily quoted security sources as saying that he was trying to provoke the Israeli army and denied he was attempting to escape to Israel. The sources also said that he threw a calling device on the other side of the border before his arrest. The Saudi ambassador, Ali Awad al-Assiri, told Okaz that he was following up the issue closely with Lebanese authorities and stressed that the nationality of the suspect hasn't been identified yet. Beirut, 18 Mar 10, 10:34

Secret Meeting between March 14, Phalange Party
Naharnet/A behind-the-scene meeting took place Wednesday between the General Secretariat of March 14 and officials from the Phalange party, the daily An-Nahar reported. It said the two sides held in-depth discussions on controversial issues. In this respect, Ad-Diyar newspaper said the meeting was held at the Phalange party headquarters between MP Sami Gemayel and March 14 General Secretariat Coordinator Fares Soaid. As a result of the talks, Soaid told Gemayel that the General Secretariat will consider his proposal to reactivate March 14 and change its method of operation. Beirut, 18 Mar 10, 09:31

First ISF Class in Community Policing Training Program Graduates
Naharnet/The first class of 73 Internal Security Forces (ISF) cadets and officers graduated from the newly developed Community Policing training class, the U.S. embassy said in a statement Thursday. "As part of its $86-million law enforcement assistance program, the United States government in partnership with the ISF … has pledged to train 300 ISF officers from the Tripoli area in community policing techniques," the statement said. Under the 10-week training program, which is taught by U.S. and Lebanese police instructors with the assistance of legal professionals, ISF officers learn the latest policing, law enforcement and community relations skills, the embassy said. "Community policing puts emphasis on tackling the underlying causes of crime by addressing problems at the local level. These techniques have successfully reduced crime and increased trust and confidence in the police in numerous communities in the United States and Europe," it added. Beirut, 18 Mar 10, 11:02

3 Wounded in Stabbing Attack in Borj Hammoud
Naharnet/Three young Lebanese men were wounded in a stabbing attack in Borj Hammoud late Wednesday. Local media on Thursday said the attack took place after a quarrel developed when a Syrian worker tried to molest the sister of one of the men who were attending a church dinner at Haret Sader in Borj Hammoud. They said the squabble turned into a fist fight that led the Syrian workers to stab the men. Beirut, 18 Mar 10, 09:09

Fouad Siniora
March 18, 2010
On March 16, the Lebanese National News Agency carried the following report: The Future bloc in the Lebanese parliament held its weekly meeting in Qoreitem this afternoon while headed by [former] Prime Minister Fouad al-Siniora and issued the following statement:
Firstly, the bloc addressed the dangerous developments on the Palestinian arena, especially in terms of the recent decisions adopted by the Israeli occupation authorities in regard to the launching of the building of 1,600 housing units in the Ramat Shlomo settlement in Eastern Jerusalem, the step to inaugurate the Ruin Synagogue 300 meters away from Al-Aqsa Mosque and the announcement of the plan to build 50,000 new housing units in the Jerusalem area.
This all happened in light of the presence of American Vice President Joe Biden and a number of European and international envoys in Israel. Moreover, the prime minister of the government of the Israeli enemy did not hesitate to proclaim yesterday before the Knesset that the settlement activities in Eastern Jerusalem will continue and expand without any restraints, thus undermining all the attempts to activate the peace process and defying the integrity of the international organizations and prominent powers in Europe and the United States... In the face of these serious developments and the failure of all the attempts and verbal and media pressures on Israel, the deputies in the Future Bloc strongly condemn these dangerous Israeli measures and calls for the following...:
1- For the Lebanese government to call on the international community, the Security Council, the European Union and the Arab League to act fast to contain Israel and its hostility, and impose strict sanctions on it as long as it is refusing to announce the discontinuation of the settlement activities in the occupied Palestinian territories. The bloc also calls on the Palestinian national authority to uphold its stringent positions to force Israel to recant these settlement decisions and adopt practical steps to enhance Palestinian national unity, especially since Israel does not differentiate between what Fatah, Hamas or the Islamic Jihad are doing. It is targeting the existence and Arab identity of the Palestinian people. We thus urge the Palestinian brother to hasten the steps of rapprochement, unity and honest dialogue and secure the minimum level of the conditions of success...
2- For the government, the political forces and all the spiritual, Islamic and Christian leaderships in Lebanon to focus their efforts on deterring this serious development and organizing peaceful steps to condemn the Israeli measures and show solidarity with the Palestinian people. The bloc also calls for the activation of the widest Lebanese and Arab protest against the Israeli escalation by addressing this issue during the Friday sermons at the mosques and the Sunday sermons at the churches this week, and suspending classes from 10am until 11am on Monday in all schools and universities. This hour will be allocated to raising the awareness of the students and explaining the dimensions of the dangerous activities undertaken by Israel in the occupied Palestinian territories...
3- For the Future bloc to send a delegation to meet with the UN special envoy in Beirut and deliver a letter of protest against the Israeli measures, demanding an action by the Security Council to deter Israel. It will also demand the presentation of the Arab peace initiative before the Security Council so that it is adopted as a plan to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict.
4- For the government to seriously look into the pursuit of the efforts to improve the humanitarian and living conditions of the Palestinian brothers living in Lebanon, in order to offer them a decent life while awaiting their honorable return to their homes.
Secondly, the bloc called for considering the statement issued by the third conference of the March 14 forces which was held last Sunday at the Bristol Hotel and which expressed the ambitions and expectations of the Lebanese people at the level of the consecration of the coexistence formula based on freedom, sovereignty, independence and Arab belonging..., as a basis and a political foundation for the dialogue over the defense strategy to protect Lebanon in the face of Israel and the regional threats.
Thirdly, the Future Bloc addressed the ongoing and escalating campaign launched by certain political sides against the Internal Security Forces and the decisions of the second independence government, by fabricating a fictive issue which they called the security agreement with the United States. At this level, the bloc would like to corroborate the following:
1- There is no such thing as a security agreement with the United States in the way it is being promoted. The government accepted a donation to train the Internal Security Forces and enhance their equipment in the context of the aid allocated to Lebanon by the American government which was announced during the Paris III conference. That is all there is to it.
2- The government and the ISF did not violate the law or the constitution and it is their right to accept donations and the sponsoring of training programs for the security bodies, knowing that the accord which was ratified by the government was formulated in a way that is similar to all such agreements and is used by all the civil society organizations receiving donations and aid from the United States and the donor institutions in it.
3- The insistence on positions prepared in advance and targeting the government and the ISF reveals an underlying intention to undermine the credibility of the ISF, its measures and the steps it has undertaken, knowing that this institution has achieved great progress at the level of its work and its technical and moral capabilities...
4- The constitutional institutions, at the head of which is the Cabinet institution, are the right place to discuss any issue, measure or decision that is on the table.
Fourthly, with the launching of the discussion of the municipal election bill at the Cabinet, the bloc stresses the necessity to hold these elections on time, whether by committing to the amendments included in the bill or the amendments which could be introduced and implemented during the short period of time we have left. What is important is to stage these elections on time without any delay.

Syria turns up the heat on Samir Geagea
By Michael Young
/Daily Star
Thursday, March 18, 2010
There was a revealing moment last Saturday in the interview conducted by Al-Jazeera’s Ghassan bin Jiddu with Walid Jumblatt, which may explain to some extent what Syria will expect of the Druze leader now that President Bashar Assad has agreed to receive him.
The interview with Bin Jiddu was one of the two conditions imposed on Jumblatt by Syria some months ago, so that he could earn his Damascus invitation (the first being an apology to the Syrian people for a statement he made to the American journalist David Ignatius, to whom he had asked why Washington had not supported the majority in Syria as it did in Iraq). Jumblatt claimed at the time that he was reluctant to sit for the interview, because Bin Jiddu, who is openly sympathetic to Hizbullah and Syria, might corner him with his questions. More likely, the Druze leader preferred to negotiate beforehand what he would say, probably through the Turks and Qataris. Bin Jiddu, visibly elated by the red carpet treatment he received in Mukhtara, was easily neutralized by Jumblatt.
However, the journalist posed a question that signaled he had a good grasp of why Syria selected him to interrogate Jumblatt. In talking to the Druze leader about his relationship with his former allies in March 14, Bin Jiddu pointedly asked him to describe how things were going with the Lebanese Forces. In recent months, the Syrians and their local allies have sought to isolate Samir Geagea and break his alliance with Saad Hariri. Bin Jiddu knew that Jumblatt, to improve his bona fides with Syria, might jump on the occasion to denounce the Lebanese Forces leader.
In fact Jumblatt avoided a negative answer, forcing Bin Jiddu to clarify that he did not want to focus solely on the Lebanese Forces. But the message relayed by the Al-Jazeera correspondent was clear enough: In the future Walid Jumblatt might have to do better than that when mentioning Geagea, at least if he wants to enjoy Syria’s favors.
A longstanding pillar of Syrian policy in Lebanon has been the political containment of the Sunni community. In the eyes of the Alawite-led regime in Damascus, any Lebanese Sunni affirmation threatens to extend to Syria, where it might mobilize the Sunni majority there. A byproduct of this strategy has been the prevention of a solid Sunni-Christian alliance in Lebanon, with Christians traditionally those most hostile to the Syrian presence. When Geagea got too close to Rafik Hariri in the early 1990s, he was rewarded with a prison cell, just as when the Sunni mufti, Sheikh Hassan Khaled, threatened to stray off the Syrian reservation during Michel Aoun’s “war of liberation” against Syria in 1989, he was killed in a car-bomb attack not far from his offices at Dar al-Fatwa.
Last year, Syria’s Lebanese allies began vowing that Geagea would be their next target. However, in the build-up toward the formation of the government there were no apparent signs of a concerted campaign in this direction. Unconfirmed reports suggested that Saudi Arabia was protecting Geagea from Syria, though this perhaps meant only that the Lebanese Forces leader would be spared assassination. In recent weeks, however, there have been new leaks indicating that Syria is annoyed with the Hariri-Geagea bond, and has complained to the Saudis about it. Why is Damascus so wary of Geagea? There are several reasons, beyond Syrian discomfort with a Sunni-Christian axis. For starters, Geagea has been gaining ground in his community. His organizational skills are doubted by none, and he is the person most likely to inherit a Christian plurality, even a majority, after the demise of the 75-year-old Michel Aoun, who is unlikely to leave behind an effective movement. There are Christians who will never embrace Geagea, but there are also signs that many of those who once disliked him and his party are increasingly in agreement with Geagea for having remained politically consistent.
A second reason is that Geagea has managed to build up ties outside Lebanon that in some ways protect him against Syria. The Saudis will be forever uneasy with the Lebanese Forces leader, given his wartime record, but they may yet think twice before depriving Saad Hariri of a valuable Christian counterpart. Geagea can also depend to an extent on the backing of the United States. This may not have saved him from imprisonment, but now that the Syrians are gone militarily, Geagea can use such ties (bolstered by the close connection he has maintained with Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, someone much appreciated in Washington) to increase his leverage at key moments.
Geagea is also bothersome because he survived everything that Syria threw at him, and it’s not easy to eliminate him any more. He was never co-opted by the Assad regime, so that even if he decides to mend fences with Damascus, he will be able to do so from a position of relative autonomy and strength. The Syrians have nothing on him, and must be aware of a potential paradox: the more they try to cut Geagea off, the more they risk pushing ambivalent Christians to his side.
Despite this, the Syrians see advantages in pressing ahead against the Lebanese Forces leader. For one thing, the Saudis have given Syria a wide berth in Lebanon, and may eventually decide that Geagea’s affiliation with Hariri is becoming too serious a snag in the Saudi-Syrian rapprochement. If so, this could undermine the Lebanese Forces patronage networks. The Syrians also know that Geagea’s partial reliance on Sfeir for his communal legitimacy will one day end. But most important, Syria has succeeded in keeping the Christians divided, and with Aoun and President Michel Sleiman also vying for Christian validation, Geagea is vulnerable.
It will be interesting to see whether Jumblatt, after his Syria trip, continues to avoid criticism of Geagea, or whether he will be start participating in the marginalization of the Lebanese Forces leader. Jumblatt, with a sizeable Christian population under his authority in the mountains, many of them Geagea supporters, will hesitate. But with improved Syrian ties a priority, how long can he stay on the fence? The question is not academic. If Jumblatt turns against Geagea, that spells the end of the Christian-Druze-Sunni alliance that made March 14 possible.
Michel Aoun declared on Tuesday that March 14 was going to pieces. The general has become adept at anticipating Syria’s mood and his statement was, alas, not entirely wrong. He knows that once Jumblatt visits Bashar Assad, the majority might not endure as a majority. Watch Walid Jumblatt to see if Aoun’s confidence is justified.
* Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR.

An inexplicable triple threat
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Editorial/Daily Star
Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has laid down a dangerous and seemingly inexplicable threat – a triple threat, in fact. Erdogan told the BBC’s Turkish service that while an estimated 170,000 ethnic Armenians live in his country, only 70,000 or so are actually full-fledged citizens, meaning that the rest faced the possibility of deportation.
“If necessary, I will tell the remaining 100,000 to leave. I can do so because they are not Turkish citizens and I’m not obliged to keep them in my country,” Erdogan said.
There’s of course the direct, domestic threat, to thousands of people covered by this sweeping pronouncement. Why now? These stateless people didn’t enter Turkey in the last few years. If 100,000 stateless Armenians have been residing there for decades, seemingly without major incident, why has Erdogan suddenly remembered their status and threatened them with expulsion?
The answer of course lies in another dimension of the issue: the world. The Swedish Parliament and US Congress have recently taken steps to pass resolutions recognizing the Ottoman genocide of World War I, against the Armenians, and according to the Swedes, against the Assyrians, Chaldeans and Pontiac Greeks as well.
Naturally, Erdogan is reacting to these pronouncements from foreign states, but rather than cut ties with these countries, he’s issued a threat that’s politically counter-productive and morally deplorable.
But the most worrying dimension of his move is regional. Erdogan told Armenia that it should distance itself from its diaspora, which he considers a source of evil, saying in effect: “Yerevan, focus on your relations with Ankara, or we’ll kick 100,000 Armenians out of our country.” It’s not exactly a positive plank in Erdogan’s announced policy of “zero conflict” in the region.
It also comes after Turkey distinguished itself by criticizing the policies of a certain state, Israel, against a certain stateless people, the Palestinians. One interview to the BBC could destroy all of the credit amassed by Erdogan and his government, and make him out to be a petty settler of scores, not a statesman.
Our region has its own worrying precedents. A fit of pique by Saudi Arabia in the wake of Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait saw Riyadh expel around 1 million Yemenis. It might have served some domestic purpose at the time, but it’s long-range effects have been devastating for Saudi Arabia’s state, its economy, and the world, since the Yemeni factor in the growth and actions of Al-Qaeda has been quite pronounced.
For the region, Turkey hasn’t been a shining beacon of free civil society and democracy, but it’s served as a possible model for the future of Arab states: civilian governments and a military that doesn’t directly hold the reigns of power. How could Ergodan’s move possibly benefit anyone?