LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 04/2010

Bible Of the Day
Matthew 17-20/28: "As Jesus was going up to Jerusalem, he took the twelve (disciples) aside by themselves, and said to them on the way, Behold, we are going up to Jerusalem, and the Son of Man will be handed over to the chief priests and the scribes, and they will condemn him to death, and hand him over to the Gentiles to be mocked and scourged and crucified, and he will be raised on the third day." Then the mother of the sons of Zebedee approached him with her sons and did him homage, wishing to ask him for something. He said to her, "What do you wish?" She answered him, "Command that these two sons of mine sit, one at your right and the other at your left, in your kingdom." Jesus said in reply, "You do not know what you are asking. Can you drink the cup that I am going to drink?" They said to him, "We can." He replied, "My cup you will indeed drink, but to sit at my right and at my left (, this) is not mine to give but is for those for whom it has been prepared by my Father." When the ten heard this, they became indignant at the two brothers. But Jesus summoned them and said, "You know that the rulers of the Gentiles lord it over them, and the great ones make their authority over them felt. But it shall not be so among you. Rather, whoever wishes to be great among you shall be your servant; whoever wishes to be first among you shall be your slave. Just so, the Son of Man did not come to be served but to serve and to give his life as a ransom for many."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Dinner in Damascus: What Did Iran Ask of Hizballah?By David Schenker and Matthew Levitt/03.03.10
Why does Obama refuse to lead in Iraq?/By: Tony Badran/March 2,10
High-tech weapons will not guarantee a win in the next war/By: Matt Nash/March 03/10 
Help farmers to reduce drug use/Daily Star/March 03/10

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for March 03/10 
Netanyahu ready to head to Damascus immediately, As-Sharq al-Awsat reports
LF slams Karami following his Tuesday statements/Now Lebanon
Italy makes arrests for arms trafficking to Iran/Now Lebanon
Maronite Bishops Hope for Unified Solutions from National Dialogue, Urge Government to Improve Performance/Naharnet
Haaretz: Assad Stresses Ties with Iran, Hizbullah Are Not Up for Discussion/Naharnet
National Dialogue Kicks Off March 9/Naharnet
Hariri Promises Compensation for Plane Crash Victims' Families/Naharnet
Berri Calls for Exporting Fresh Water to the Gulf/Naharnet
Karami Quits March 8, Considers Forming His Own Opposition Front/Naharnet
Lebanon Mulling Response to Libyan Threat to Expel Lebanese/Naharnet
Aoun to Nasrallah Critics: Who Authorized You to Bear Arms in the '70s?/Naharnet
Wahab Describes Dialogue Committee as 'National Entertainment Committee'/Naharnet
Military Prosecutor Charges Eight with Plotting Attacks on Army/Naharnet
Lebanon charges eight with plotting attacks on army/AFP
Assad: Syria's ties with Hamas, Hezbollah are not on the table/Ha'aretz
Assad Lost in Translation: It is the Iranian, Stupid/Huffington Post (blog)
Clinton admits Iran sanctions could be delayed by months/Ha'aretz
Cassese submits first annual report of STL to UN, Lebanon/Daily Star
Najjar launches Model Court in bid to reform judiciary/Daily Star
Hizbullah MP demands strict security measures for foreigners/(AFP)
Libya vows to expel Lebanese if Beirut boycotts Arab summit/Daily Star
National Dialogue sessions to kick off March 9/Daily Star
Hariri promises to defend families of air crash victims/Daily Star
Lebanon posts highest growth rate in 2009 tourist arrivals/Daily Star
Lebanon's 2010 growth could hit 8 percent - Finance Ministry/Daily Star
Najjar presents women's-protection bill to Cabinet/Daily Star
Prosecutor orders arrest of Sehnaoui bodyguard/Daily Star
Baroud presides over security council session/Daily Star
Apartheid Week at AUB highlights Palestinian plight/Daily Star
Children plant trees at Beirut Pine Forest/Daily Star
Turkish premier wins Rafik Hariri UN-HABITAT memorial prize/Daily Star
Environment minister slams quarry owners for price hikes/Daily Star
Sidon police detain wanted drug dealer after car chase/Daily Star
Inadequate border control sees increased drug flow into Lebanon/Daily Star

Netanyahu ready to head to Damascus immediately, As-Sharq al-Awsat reports
March 3, 2010 /As-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper reported on Wednesday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office issued a statement that he is ready to meet with Syrian officials without setting preconditions in order to resume indirect Israeli-Syrian peace talks. Netanyahu is willing to immediately meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, Jerusalem, or in any other city, the daily said The PM’s statement comes in response to the Guardian’s report last week that Syria is ready to accept Israel’s gradual withdrawal from the Golan Heights in return for normalizing relations. "There could be stages of withdrawal, the timing of which could involve a form of normalization [between Israel and Syria]," Foreign Minister Walid al-Mouallem told Oxford Research Group Director of the Human Security in the Middle East Gabrielle Rifkind. "[Returning] half of the Golan could lead to an end to enmity, while three quarters of the Golan could lead to [opening] a special interest section at the US Embassy in Damascus. A full [Israeli] withdrawal would allow a Syrian Embassy in Israel,” he added. Key issues, such as Syria's support for Hamas, Hezbollah and its policy to Iran, would "only be addressed after [Israel’s] full withdrawal,” he added.
A “well-informed source” told As-Sharq al-Awsat that Mouallem’s quotes comply with the Madrid conference in 1991 – which was an early attempt by the international community to start a peace process through negotiations involving Israel and the Palestinians as well as Arab countries including Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. However, according to the daily, the US State Department refused to comment on the issue, saying it will remain in line with Washington’s policy not to reveal details of diplomatic discussions. -NOW Lebanon

Maronite Bishops Hope for Unified Solutions from National Dialogue, Urge Government to Improve Performance
Naharnet/The Council of Maronite Bishops on Wednesday called on the Lebanese government to intensify efforts and improve its performance in order to meet the demands of the people.
"Differences in public opinion are still creating disparity among the Lebanese," said the bishops following their monthly meeting in Bkirki. "The current situation calls for closing ranks and unifying the vision to salvage the country," said the statement read by Monsignor Youssef Tawq. Turning to the issue of all-party talks, the bishops' statement said the Lebanese are waiting for "unified solutions" from the national dialogue. "The government should improve its performance, overcome the current paralysis and meet the demands of the people," Tawq said. The bishops also lauded the government's decision to make March 25 a national holiday to celebrate the Annunciation of the Blessed Virgin Mary. Beirut, 03 Mar 10, 12:05

Haaretz: Assad Stresses Ties with Iran, Hizbullah Are Not Up for Discussion
Naharnet/Syrian President Bashar Assad has told former senior White House officials that the issue of Syria's relations with Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas was "not on the table," Israeli daily Haaretz reported Wednesday. Assad told Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett two weeks ago that U.S. policy in the Middle East has been wrong for the past decade and has created a vacuum that has been filled by other countries, meaning Iran and Turkey. The Leveretts, who served on the National Security Council during the Clinton and Bush administrations, said Tuesday on their website that Assad told them Iran's rise has not come at Syria's expense. Despite Assad's criticism of U.S. policy choices, the Leveretts said the Syrian president seemed satisfied with his meeting the day before with Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns. However, Assad made clear that discussions on Syria's ties with Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas were "not on the table."According to Haaretz, Flynt Leverett said that an Assad adviser had told him recently that Damascus would find it difficult to distance itself from Tehran because only Iran had stood by Syria in the aftermath of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
Last Thursday, Assad defied U.S. calls to loosen ties with Iran, saying his long-standing alliance with Tehran remains strong despite overtures from Washington intended to shift his loyalties.
With Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad by his side in Damascus, Assad said that America should not dictate relationships in the Middle East.
Beirut, 03 Mar 10, 13:38

National Dialogue Kicks Off March 9
Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman set Tuesday, March 9 as the resumption of national dialogue at the Presidential Palace in Baabda. He said dialogue would focus on the national defense strategy. Suleiman said other items could be added to the agenda provided dialogue members agreed. He said Defense Minister Elias Murr has to attend dialogue meetings, "given that he has to have a say in the defense strategy." Suleiman rejected criticism that mounted over the dialogue committee which was set up by the President. "I cannot satisfy all political figures in the country," he said. Suleiman on Sunday announced the formation of a modified national dialogue committee. Beirut, 03 Mar 10, 07:14

Berri Calls for Exporting Fresh Water to the Gulf
Naharnet/The date set for the resumption of dialogue had been set in coordination with Speaker Nabih Berri, the daily An-Nahar said Wednesday. President Michel Suleiman has announced Tuesday, March 9 as the date for the restart of all-party talks. Berri on Tuesday discussed Lebanese-Syrian relations and Israeli threats on Lebanon with Druze leader Walid Jumblat. The two men, who met at the Speaker's mansion in Ain el-Tineh, also discussed a visit by Berri to Turkey scheduled for March 20. In response to a question, Berri said: "What prevents Lebanon from exporting fresh water to Gulf countries?" "For the last several years I have been urging Lebanon to launch this type of project. If implemented, we would have put a large amount of money in the treasury and relaxed our debt burdens," Berri said.

Prosecutor orders arrest of Sehnaoui bodyguard
By The Daily Star /Wednesday, March 03, 2010
BEIRUT: The state prosecuter at the Beirut Appellate Court, Joseph Maamari, ordered the arrest of one of the bodyguards of the chairman of Societe Generale de Banque au Liban Antoun Sehnaoui for involvement in last week’s gunfire exchange at the White House restaurant in the Beirut neighborhood of Sodeco, a security report said Tuesday. It added that investigations were under way to reveal the details of the shooting incident Friday at White House between Sehnaoui’s bodyguards and the companions of businessman Mazen al-Zein, which led to the injury of two people. Maamari also issued a warrant for Sehnaoui to be brought in for questioning. Sehnaoui is currently outside the country. – The Daily Star

Karami Quits March 8, Considers Forming His Own Opposition Front
Naharnet/Soon after announcing his withdrawal from the Hizbullah-led March 8 alliance, former Prime Minister Omar Karami said he was considering setting up his own opposition front.
"I am thinking of setting up a new opposition front or gathering that does not buy or sell," Karami said in an interview published Wednesday by the daily As-Safir.
Karami on Tuesday declared he was quitting March 8, saying the dialogue committee set up by President Michel Suleiman had "no flavor." He said all-party national talks were doomed to fail "unless they protect the weapons of the resistance." The former premier, who hails from the northern town of al-Nouri near Tripoli, not only criticized Suleiman, March 14 forces and the Americans, but also his former allies in the opposition. He slammed Suleiman "who sits with (Lebanese Forces leader) Samir Geagea at the same table and does not bother himself to contact us to put us in the picture of what he is doing," he complained. Karami said each of the parties participating in the dialogue meetings is aware of the limitations when it comes to drawing up the defense strategy. "That's why dialogue is bound to fail sooner than you think," he stressed. Karami insisted he would not take part in a dialogue that "includes a criminal and a killer, Samir Geagea." He has repeatedly accused Geagea of planning the 1987 assassination of his brother, former MP Rashid Karami, in a military helicopter bombing.
Rashid Karami was killed by a bomb placed under his that was detonated by remote control during the height of the 1975-1990 Civil War. He admonished his allies, pointing to the "significant political price" the Sunni opposition paid. "Everybody, from Beirut to Tripoli, stood against us," he protested. As-Safir said Karami's new front is likely to be made up of personalities like former Cabinet minister Elias Saba, Albert Mansour and other Sunni opposition figures. Beirut, 03 Mar 10, 08:11

Lebanon Mulling Response to Libyan Threat to Expel Lebanese
Naharnet/Lebanese authorities are mulling what steps to take in case Libya goes ahead with its threat to oust Lebanese nationals if Beirut decides to boycott the Arab League summit in Tripoli. An informed Libyan source told al-Liwaa daily that Tripoli's government is following up with concern developments in the Lebanese stance. He said, however, that Libya hasn't yet received any negative sign from Lebanese authorities about non-participation in the summit. The Libyan government has prepared "the appropriate response" in case Lebanon decides to boycott the meeting. Tripoli will take "painful measures" that would have repercussions on not only Lebanese-Libyan ties but also the Lebanese economy, according to the source.
"There is a decision to expel Lebanese working in Libya and whose numbers reach around 20,000," the source said. Lebanon's Shiites are calling on Lebanese authorities to boycott the summit over the disappearance of Imam Moussa al-Sadr in Libya. In 1978, the Lebanese Shiite religious leader flew to Tripoli for a week of talks with Libyan officials. He was never seen or heard from again. Beirut, 03 Mar 10, 11:26

Aoun to Nasrallah Critics: Who Authorized You to Bear Arms in the '70s?
Naharnet/Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun on Tuesday said his party was not consulted in forming the national dialogue committee, demanding to include topics other than the defensive strategy in discussions. "We weren't consulted in forming the dialogue table although we have that right. We want to be represented by a Greek Catholic, (ex-Minister) Elias Skaff, instead of (State Minister for Parliamentary Affairs) Michel Pharaon," Aoun said after the weekly meeting of the Change and Reform bloc in Rabiyeh.
"We recognize our interest and we don't want any foreign participation at the national dialogue table," he added. On the other hand, Aoun snapped back at the critics of Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah over his speech on the occasion of Hizbullah's "Anniversary of Martyr Leaders."
"Let those who claim that no one authorized him (Nasrallah) to defend himself ask themselves who authorized them to bear arms in the 1970s for self-defense and for less dangerous motives," Aoun said. "We discussed the arms of the resistance between 2006 and 2009 … The general situations have not changed so that we change our opinion, that's why we are upholding those arms, more and more, given the dangerous situation," he added.
"If Israel decides to wage war, it will lose because it doesn't have much ability to bear the expenses. The best thing for them is to halt their threats because the Arab world is vigilant."
Aoun stressed that Lebanon has the right to possess weapons that can reach all Israeli territories, adding that such weapons are for the purpose of defense.
"We have asked FPMers to submit the names of the women who want to run for municipal election and not to abide by any quota … We also urge holding the elections on time," Aoun added. "The issue of the state budget and tax increase is critical and thorny and we don't want an increase in taxes; however, we will discuss the matter thoroughly."
Moreover, Aoun condemned last week's shooting incident inside a Beirut nightclub, saying it is reminiscent of "Chicago's mafias." Beirut, 02 Mar 10, 19:40

Wahab Describes Dialogue Committee as 'National Entertainment Committee'
Naharnet/Former minister Wiam Wahab on Tuesday said that "what was recently formed is not a dialogue committee but rather a national 'entertainment' committee." After meeting with former premier Omar Karami in Tripoli, Wahab said: "This table was initiated in circumstances different than what we are living today. Back then, Speaker Nabih Berri was seeking to move the dialogue from the street to the table, but today we have institutions, and any step of this kind implies the termination of institutions, the parliament, and the cabinet."
"How many members understand what a defensive strategy is? This strategy requires a committee formed of four to five officers, and many army officers comprehend this matter and may prepare a defensive strategy and submit it to the cabinet for approval," he added. Beirut, 02 Mar 10, 20:37

Military Prosecutor Charges Eight with Plotting Attacks on Army
Naharnet/Lebanon's military prosecutor on Tuesday charged eight people with forming an armed gang in the eastern Bekaa valley and plotting attacks on the army, a judicial source said.
"Judge Saqr Saqr has charged eight people with forming an armed group in Majdal Anjar to stage terrorist attacks with the aim of killing soldiers," the source told AFP on condition of anonymity. The suspects include Lebanese and Syrian citizens, the source said. Only two of the suspects are in custody. The rest were charged in absentia. If convicted, they could face the death penalty. A Lebanese military judge last month also charged 11 people with forming an armed gang and spying on the army and U.N. peacekeepers in southern Lebanon.
The suspects were charged with belonging to al-Qaida-inspired group Fatah al-Islam, forming an armed gang and spying on the army and U.N. peacekeeping troops in southern Lebanon.
Among those charged -- several of them in absentia -- were Abdul Rahman Awad and Abdul Ghani Jawhar, two Fatah al-Islam members accused of a deadly 2008 bus bombing in the northern city of Tripoli. Fifteen others were also charged in December with plotting "terrorist attacks" on the army. Militant group Fatah al-Islam fought a three-month battle against the army at the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp near Tripoli in the summer of 2007. The fighting killed 400 people, including 168 soldiers, and displaced some 30,000 refugees from the camp, which was leveled in the clashes. The Lebanese army is also sporadically targeted in the Bekaa. A Lebanese soldier was wounded last week when assailants opened fire on his patrol in Majdal Anjar. Four soldiers were killed in a drugs-related shootout in the Bekaa last year.(Naharnet-AFP) Beirut, 02 Mar 10, 21:04

National Dialogue sessions to kick off March 9
Sleiman stresses need to include Murr in defense-strategy discussions
By The /Daily Star /Wednesday, March 03, 2010
BEIRUT: President Michel Sleiman said on Tuesday that National Dialogue sessions will kick off on Tuesday, March 9 at the Baabda Presidential Palace,
In comments carried by the Central News Agency, the president said that dialogue would focus on the national defense strategy, adding that he did not mind including other items to the agenda provided the dialogue’s participants agreed.
Sleiman stressed that Defense Minister Elias al-Murr ought to attend sessions, “given that he has to have a say in the design of a national-defense strategy.”
The president said he was comfortable with the new make-up of the national dialogue committee, despite criticisms.
“I cannot satisfy all political figures in the country,” he said.
Sleiman announced Sunday an expanded list of participants. Members of both the majority March 14 and the opposition alliances have voiced reservations about the inclusion of new members to the committee, as well as the exclusion of others.
He discussed Tuesday with a delegation from General Secretariat of the March 14 Forces the debated make-up of the national dialogue committee.
Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun said on Tuesday his party had not been consulted when forming the national dialogue committee, and demanded the inclusion on the agenda of topics other than the defense strategy. “We weren’t consulted in forming the dialogue table although we have that right. We want to be represented by a Greek Catholic, [Former Minister] Elias Skaff, instead of [State Minister for Parliamentary Affairs] Michel Pharaon,” Aoun said after the weekly meeting of the Change and Reform bloc in Rabiyeh.
“[The Lebanese] recognize their interests and we don’t want foreign participation at the national dialogue table,” he added, in response to calls by the March 14 Forces to include an Arab League representative in the dialogue committee.
Meanwhile, Skaff said in a statement issued Tuesday that national dialogue “will most likely not yield any results.”
Skaff, who ran as a Zahle representative during the parliamentary elections, said he reprimanded Sleiman for his decision to include professor Fayez Hajj Chahine as his district’s representative in the national dialogue committee.
Although he acknowledged the professor’s academic qualifications, Skaff downplayed Chahine’s adequacy to represent the Bekaa town of Zahle. “No one consulted with me while choosing a representative for Zahle [in the national dialogue]. Chahine does not represent us, he represents Sleiman,” he said.
Also, former Premier Omar Karami said Tuesday “the dialogue committee will have no “flavor,” and warned it “would be defused faster than you may think, unless the considered defense strategy aims to preserve the resistance’s arms in the face of Israeli threats.”
After meeting with former Minister Wi’am Wahab, Karami said: “The viewpoints of the March 14 camp, especially its Christians, are well-known: They want to offer an immediate service to Israel.” However, he added: “This won’t happen.”
“It is well-known that UN chief Ban Ki-moon is a US agent and the US only cares for Israel,” he added.
In his latest report on the implementation of Resolution 1701, Ban urged the president to resume national dialogue talks in order to reach consensus on a defense strategy.
“One day after Ban’s report, President Michel Sleiman announced the dialogue committee, and this is noteworthy.”
Karami also announced his withdrawal from the March 8 alliance, noting: “I’m in an ‘independent’ opposition and I hold onto my principles.”
Minister of State Adnan al-Sayyed Hussein told LBCI television Tuesday that any proposed make-up of the national dialogue committee would have been criticized.” Sayyed Hussein added that all parties should give Sleiman and the committee a chance to propose their ideas.
He also commented on the possible addition of items to the agenda, saying that while discussions on the national defense strategy remain the top priority, “it is only logical to touch on other issues that might be related to it.” – The Daily Star

Libya vows to expel Lebanese if Beirut boycotts Arab summit
By The Daily Star /Wednesday, March 03, 2010
BEIRUT: Libya has reportedly threatened to expel Lebanese nationals if Beirut decides to boycott the Arab League summit in Tripoli.
Al-Liwaa newspaper quoted a well-informed Libyan source on Tuesday as saying that the Libyan government was closely following up on developments in the Lebanese stance regarding its participation in the Arab League summit scheduled to be held in Tripoli later this month.
The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Libya had prepared the “appropriate response” should Lebanon boycott the summit.
He said the “painful” step-by-step measures to be taken include a decision to expel Lebanese nationals working and living in Libya, who number about 20,000.
The source said the measures will not only have “negative repercussions” on Lebanese-Libyan relations frozen for a long time over the disappearance of Imam Musa Sadr, but will also have harmful effects on Lebanon’s economy.
Gadhafi has been implicated in the 1978 disappearance of Sadr, the Iranian-born Shiite cleric who founded the Movement of the Deprived (Amal) in Lebanon and disappeared along with two companions after departing for Tripoli to meet with government officials.
Libya has consistently denied responsibility, claiming that Sadr and his companions left Libya for Italy.
But the Lebanese judiciary has indicted Gadhafi and six other Libyans for the abduction of Sadr.
Sports and Youth Minister and Amal Movement member Ali Abdullah on Tuesday stressed that there was an arrest warrant against Gadhafi.
The Libyan leader has ignored previous summons from the Lebanese courts to answer questions about Sadr.
“Lebanon should not participate in the Arab League summit whatsoever,” Abdullah warned.
Lebanon has dispatched Foreign Minister Ali al-Shami to take part in meetings of Arab foreign ministers currently being held in Cairo to prepare the agenda of the Cairo summit. However, Lebanon has not decided on the level of participation in the Tripoli summit.
President Michel Sleiman said earlier this week Lebanon had yet to receive an invitation to the summit in Tripoli. – The Daily Star, with Naharnet

That was a war council in Damascus
Last Updated: March 01. 2010 12:13AM UAE / February 28. 2010 8:13PM GMT
The three-party meeting that took place in Damascus on Friday gathering the Syrian president Bashar al Assad, the Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was a war council to devise counterattack plans and assign tasks in the event of an Israeli offensive on one or all parties, wrote Abdelbari Atwan, the editor-in-chief of the pan-Arab newspaper Al Quds al Arabi.
“The timing of the meeting, the way it was undertaken and the ensuing press conference that was held at its conclusion, all point to a strategic coalition being reinforced. This is the build-up of a new front that will spearhead the confrontation with the US-Israeli alliance and whichever Arab countries that may, expressly or implicitly, be affiliated with it.”
The Iranian president said he expects war to break out somewhere between spring and summer of this year. Meanwhile, the Hizbollah chief vowed to strike the Israeli capital, its airports and power stations if Israel dared to attack Beirut’s critical infrastructure.
“Indeed, we are being exposed to a new discourse here, an unprecedented sense of self-confidence and an unheard-of preparedness for retaliation.”
For its part, the Syrian leadership appears to have made up its mind to close off the US administration’s “trite and cheap” flirtation with Damascus and opted for bolstering its tactical partnership with Tehran.
Clatter over Iraqi vote is good news
It is a matter of several days before the Iraqi people go to the polls and have their say on their country’s political future. These national elections may bring Iraq great opportunities to thrive and develop, but they may also be the country’s last elections, commented Abdul Rahman al Rashed in the London-based newspaper Asharq al Awsat.
“The clatter we’re hearing and the heated media battles and polemics currently happening in Iraq in the lead-up to the elections prefigure a decisive outcome of the ballot polls. I don’t think that the past four years, during which an elected government was in power under Nouri al Maliki, will be reduplicated even if Mr al Maliki himself is reappointed prime minister.”
That’s because a number of factors on the ground will be changing as of next year. Most important of all, US troops will pull out of the country. And the US presence, besides the protection it offers to the opponents of the post-occupation regime, has had a political influence balancing out the competing forces.
“Doubtless, the new foundations that were laid after the fall of Saddam’s regime won’t be easy to preserve in the absence of a US umbrella.”
Still, whichever leadership ends up with the majority of the votes, the upcoming elections carry the hope that the rocking Iraqi ship will finally berth safely.
The uncertain fate of Arab Christians
Two months ago, Christians from Jerusalem, mostly clergymen from various sects, issued a statement about the dreadful conditions that Jerusalem and all Palestinian territories are facing under the Israeli occupation, wrote Redwan al Sayid, a professor of Islamic Studies at the University of Lebanon, in the UAE newspaper Al Ittihad.
Another statement then came from the Vatican diagnosing the status of “Eastern Christians”, as it labelled them, according to four main factors: the declining numbers of Christians in the Levant region due to intensive immigration; pressure Christians are subjected to in Israel, the Palestinian territories and Iraq; marginalisation and violence they are facing in other Arab states due to the rise of fundamentalist ideologies; and major schisms within the Arab Christian community resulting from the indifference of Christians of the western world.
A one-day conference was then convened under the theme of “Living Together: Christians and Muslims in the Middle East.”
“I noted that Christians and Muslims in the Levant suffer from three main issues: the rise of fundamentalism, the perpetuity of the totalitarian state and the dreadfulness of the Zionist regime.”
True, Israeli occupation has oppressed and humiliated Muslims and Christians alike, but Christians felt it most, precisely because they are a minority.
The effect of 10,000 detained Palestinians
“Israel holds in captivity more than 10,000 Palestinians as part of a scheme that no imperial power has undertaken before,” wrote Rimonda Hawa al Taweel in the comment pages of the Palestinian newspaper Al Quds.
Locking up such a large number of Palestinians has multifarious implications. First, it bespeaks Israel’s ill will regarding any peace initiative.
“It seems that Israel wants to make peace with itself rather than with its ‘enemies’. For peace would cost it the critical foe that unifies it internally.”
Second, with so many of their loved ones in jail, Palestinians will quite naturally never stop their resistance or relinquish their struggle for freedom. Israel wrongly thinks those 10,000 Palestinians are “hostages” that will dishearten the resistance, but the exact opposite is true.
These inhumane incarcerations rather sow the seeds of a deeper hatred for Israel in the next generations. If Israel doesn’t care about love because, as it claims, it can always command respect through intimidation, it can never root out abhorrence.
“Let’s open the Palestinian prisoner files to the whole world, so it may read, learn and then decide.”
* Digest compiled by Achraf A El Bahi
aelbahi@thenational.ae
http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100301/OPINION/702289930/1006

Why does Obama refuse to lead in Iraq?
Tony Badran, March 2, 2010
Now Lebanon/Last week, General Raymond Odierno, the commander of American forces in Iraq, made statements that refocused attention on the strategic importance of Iraq for US regional interests. Odierno framed the issue, particularly Iraqi parliamentary elections this Sunday, in the context of Washington’s regional confrontation with Iran: Would Iraq succeed and remain a partner of the US, or would it become a satellite of Iran?
In remarks delivered at the Institute for the Study of War, Odierno spoke of the need for much deeper engagement with Iraq to ensure a long-term partnership with a critical Middle Eastern country. President Barack Obama, in contrast, has been preoccupied mainly with the US withdrawal, betraying a lack of strategic vision that has had negative consequences for the region. There are increasing concerns about Obama’s aloofness in Iraq, as Iran steadily seeks to shape political outcomes there in its favor.
According to the journalist Thomas Ricks, Odierno recently requested that a combat brigade remain in northern Iraq beyond the August withdrawal deadline for all American combat forces. The brigade may be meant for Kirkuk. Months ago, Odierno proposed deploying joint patrols in the disputed city involving American, Iraqi government, and Kurdish troops.
However, Odierno is concerned with more than just security. The general has made sure to highlight that Iraq’s parliamentary elections are being watched closely by the country’s neighbors. His concerns were validated during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s visit last week to Damascus, where he met with the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad. While there, the Iranian president offered Tehran’s reading of the American withdrawal as well as of the regional architecture Iran seeks, and Iraq’s place in it.
The Americans, Ahmadinejad said, “not only have failed to gain any power, but also are forced to leave the region. They are leaving their reputation, image, and power behind in order to escape … The [American] government has no influence in regional ties … Today [regional] countries are in control. The expansion of Iran-Syria ties, Syria-Turkey ties, and Iran-Turkey ties--God willing, Iraq too will joint the circle--shows that regional countries are following the path of convergence.”
Odierno has been voicing concerns about Iran’s and Syria’s undermining of Iraqi stability more vocally than anyone. After the August 2009 bombings in Baghdad, he recognized the political nature of the attacks and did not hesitate to point the finger at groups harbored by and receiving financial and logistical support from Syria. Odierno linked the bombings to the elections, even as Damascus has been explicit about its desire to see Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki defeated. Such attacks are designed to weaken Maliki by showing that his government cannot maintain security.
Similarly, Odierno has been blunt about Iran’s efforts to advance its interests in Iraq through pro-Iranian Shiite politicians like Ahmed Chalabi. According to Odierno, Chalabi and others are “getting support by other nations who in fact are trying to push very specific agendas inside of Iraq.”
Last week, an unclassified summary of Odierno’s briefing on Iranian operations in Iraq, which are being directed by the commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, was released to the Washington Post columnist David Ignatius. The leak displayed a desire on Odierno’s part to highlight the urgency of a renewed American commitment to Iraq, and the broader battle being fought there.
Odierno's activity shows he is worried that the political leadership in Washington may not act as quickly and decisively as required. In light of the White House’s three-month-long process to agree to its Afghanistan plan, Odierno feels that he cannot afford similar waffling. Meanwhile, as Defense Secretary Robert Gates remarked about the cumbersome nature of US foreign policy decision-making: “[O]ther countries ... are taking full advantage to more quickly fund projects, sell weapons, and build relationships.”
What other overriding purpose aside from withdrawal has Barack Obama laid out for the US in Iraq? The White House’s silence has been deafening. Already the perception of an American vacuum has caused a panicking Saudi Arabia, eager to contain Iranian influence in Iraq, to cover for Syrian actions in the country intended to defeat Maliki. Instead of offering leadership and ensuring that the policies of the United States’ regional allies are in line with those of Washington, Obama has taken initiatives bereft of strategic coherence. This includes the ill-advised decision recently to elevate the level of contacts with Syria in the hope of “isolating” Iran.
The former secretary of state, Henry Kissinger, recently laid out in an opinion piece what was at stake for Washington. He cautioned that the US needed to develop an overarching regional strategy to defeat the Iran-led axis--the primary challenger of the American order in the Middle East. Kissinger wrote, “Operational continuity is needed in a strategic concept for a region over which the specter of Iran increasingly looms.”
The Damascus summit clearly and confidently reaffirmed the nature of this Iran-led axis and its vision for the region. However, Obama’s obsession with ending America’s presence in Iraq, which he apparently still views largely as being “George W. Bush’s war,” will not alter the country’s importance to the United States. The reality, as Kissinger wrote, “is bound to obtrude on our consciousness,” whether the White House likes it or not.

**Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Michel Sleiman
March 3, 2010
Now Lebanon/On March 2, the Hezbollah affiliated Al-Intiqad magazine carried the following exclusive report:
President of the Republic General Michel Sleiman assured that the timing of the national dialogue table was dictated by national considerations and not external considerations, including the position of United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki- Moon. President Sleiman stated that the dialogue table was a continuation of what was reached during the previous dialogue sessions. He then added as he received the editing board of Hezbollah’s online media department (Al-Intiqad.net and Al-Muqawama.net) headed by Dr. Hussein Rahhal, that in principle, the national dialogue session at the Baabda Palace will be held next Tuesday on March 9. Asked about the agenda of the dialogue table and whether or not it will remain limited to the national defense strategy, President Sleiman said that this article was on the table and that if the interlocutors decided to expand the agenda, he would not mind. He indicated that the defense strategy issue was linked to several other headlines to enhance national immunity, including the financial dossier. He added: “Therefore, if the interlocutors were to decide to discuss the latter dossier or any other, there is no problem with that.”
President Sleiman then indicated he was very pleased with the new representation around the dialogue table despite the criticisms which were addressed by more than one side in this regard, pointing out that it was impossible to please all the forces and political figures on the political arena. He then considered that the participation of Professor Fayez Hajj-Chahine was a “message” falling in the context of choosing competent figures in the civil society arena, just as was seen with ministers Adnan al-Sayyed Hussein and Ziad Baroud in the government. He continued that this also fell in the context of the reform process which he has started and by which he will proceed.
Regarding the presence of Minister Elias al-Murr, Sleiman said that the Defense Ministry must be represented around the dialogue table so that it expresses its opinion in regard to the defense strategy alongside the resistance. Asked about the Zionist threats against Lebanon, President of the Republic General Michel Sleiman assured that the enemy will think twice before engaging in any adventure in Lebanon because it had not yet forgotten its loss during the July 2006 war. He continued: “However, we cannot know the bad intentions of the enemy. The more the enemy is convinced that this war will be highly costly, the less likely it will wage war.”
President Sleiman then stressed the importance of having a unified national position to face the challenges, and while he pointed to the presence of voices outside national consensus that could be used by the Israeli enemy, he said that one of the goals of the dialogue table was to address the differences behind closed doors and in the media. He also pointed to the importance of enhancing the capabilities of the Lebanese army whose dismantlement was counted on by the enemy during the July war but without success. On the other hand, President Sleiman praised the Syrian and Iranian positions in support of Lebanon in the face of the Israeli threats, saying that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently assured him over the phone that Iran was willing to provide Lebanon with all the support it needed to confront the Israeli threats. Regarding the uncovering of the espionage networks working for the Mossad, the president of the republic stressed the importance of this exposure. And while he assured he did not interfere in the work of the judiciary, he praised the death sentence issued by the military court against agent Mahmoud Rafeh, saying it was a fair sentence.
Asked about the American [wire]tapping, the president of the republic stressed the importance of seeing the different institutions rising up to the level of the challenges and refusing to succumb to any requests made by whichever side. He then expressed his confidence in the work of the institutions, saying that the requests being filed were not as important as the refusal to respond to them, especially if they went against national interest. He gave many examples in which American demands were made of Lebanon during the Nahr al-Bared war for instance, but Lebanon turned them down because they went against the Lebanese stand. Regarding the budget which will be discussed by the government next Friday and which features the imposition of additional taxes, including the raising of the VAT from ten to twelve per cent, the president of the republic said that this will be the object of thorough discussions, assuring the rejection of any taxes that will affect the poor. However, he added that if these taxes were to affect certain luxuries, it would be fine. He concluded by saying that the way the money collected from these taxes is spent should be known.”

High-tech weapons will not guarantee a win in the next war
Matt Nash, March 3, 2010
Israel on Tuesday again accused Syria of transferring sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah. Recent news reports suggest the party may have anti-aircraft weapons and medium-range ballistic missiles.
In preparation for any future conflict, however, Hezbollah is likely to be focusing far more on developing new battlefield tactics, playing to its strengths against an enemy that continues to invest heavily in new military technologies.
The SA-2 anti-aircraft weapons Israel accused Syria of training Hezbollah to use would not pose a threat to Israeli warplanes but could take down helicopters. The Iranian-made Fateh 110 ballistic missiles, with a 250-kilometer range, reportedly now in Hezbollah’s arsenal, can reach Tel Aviv but can also be taken out by Israel’s anti-missile defense systems.
Currently, however, Israel has no anti-missile defense system capable of protecting against shorter-range Hezbollah rockets like the Katyusha, Fajr-3 and Fajr-5. The Jewish State is hoping to deploy a defense, dubbed Iron Dome, against these weapons, but the system, expected to be partially in use by summer, could be much less effective than expected.
Iron Dome, according to the LA Times, is running behind schedule and is almost prohibitively expensive – the missiles it fires reportedly cost $50,000 each. Further, it remains to be seen if the system can handle the type of barrage Hezbollah rained on Israel during the 2006 July War. During the 34-day conflict, Hezbollah fired some 4,000 rockets and missiles into Israel, typically shooting over 100 per day – a deluge that could overwhelm Iron Dome.
Such a heavy barrage tactic could also effectively counter another of Israel’s newest defense technologies. The Israeli Defense Forces have a new system for tanks called Trophy. It is designed to identify and intercept anti-tank rounds, but in 2006 Hezbollah showed they use these weapons quite unconventionally.
The party destroyed several Israeli tanks and armored vehicles in part through “swarm” tactics – firing a number of rounds repeatedly at the same target instead of the more traditional battle strategy of shooting only one or two. While it is not clear how Trophy would handle a Hezbollah “swarm” attack, the Israelis have also developed a new shell to fire from their tanks that could counter these assaults.
The new Kalanit APAM shell is designed to hit anti-tank squads much like a cluster bomb. The Kalanit releases sub-munitions mid-air at different intervals which explode, sending shrapnel flying over a wide area. This weapon would theoretically decrease the time Hezbollah fighters can spend “swarming” a tank.
Israel is also developing several robotic tools for use in ground campaigns. One, the so-called Eyeball, is intended to help with intelligence in the heat of battle. The tool – essentially a ball fitted with a camera and the technology to transmit video wirelessly – can either be thrown or attached to a stick with a string and dangled over walls or around corners.
While the Eyeball can be useful in the type of urban combat that would unfold in South Lebanon in any future conflict, critics have noted that if thrown, the device might land and be able to see only the ground or a wall. A different high-tech weapon now in Israel’s arsenal that may be more useful is a camera that can be fitted with explosives which looks and moves like a snake.
Controlled by remote-control, this device can slither along the ground, helping spot hidden fighters, bunkers or missile launchers. The lack of such intel was certainly one of Israel’s biggest detriments in 2006. A survey of 24 IDF officers conducted in 2009 found Hezbollah outdid Israel in 2006 in terms of intelligence gathering.
Robots will likely help Israel on the battlefield, but the Jewish State’s long-term intelligence gathering has suffered serious blows in the past year. Lebanon’s Internal Security Forces have arrested 17 alleged spies representing 12 networks, ISF Director General Ashraf Rifi said in late February.
Most likely much more damaging for Israel, however, is the October 2009 discovery of phone tapping equipment on Hezbollah’s private fiber optic telephone network. Losing these devices means Israel could once again be out of the loop on Hezbollah’s communications.
Intelligence gathering was not the only area where Hezbollah out-performed the IDF in 2006, according to the survey. On a scale of one-to-ten, respondents said Hezbollah bested the IDF 9 to 5 in terms of military strategy.
Developing and improving that strategy, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has said, will be a top priority. Speaking of any future war in August 2008, Nasrallah said, “The army of our enemy will witness an unprecedented method of fighting by courageous, tough and devoted resistance fighters in the battlefield; something they had never seen since the establishment of their usurping entity."
The Israelis did, however, roundly criticize their own ground operation in 2006 as poorly planned. Their next invasion will no doubt be more robust and prove very difficult and bloody for both sides.

State of denial
March 1, 2010
Now Lebanon
A handout picture released by the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) shows (L-R) Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Iranian counterpart, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, arriving for an official dinner in Damascus late on February 25. (AFP/HO/SANA)
Three men, three visits. Lebanese President Michel Sleiman goes to Russia and is met by the deputy foreign minister – (this is apparently not a slight; he is merely the most senior Arabist). He negotiates the sale of a few aging attack helicopters and returns to announce a controversial national dialogue line-up. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Saad Hariri jets off to Doha to discuss the usual “bilateral relations and regional events.”
However, the most meaningful “state” visit in recent days was made by a man who holds no public office, but who is arguably the most powerful individual in Lebanon. Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah may have been set up as the fall guy in the latest chapter in Hezbollah’s glorious struggle against the Zionist entity (as usual, no one else is prepared to take on Israel), but the fact remains that Hezbollah is the de facto power on the ground, and it was in Damascus that Lebanon’s real future was mapped out.
A formidable regional alliance is taking shape, and the Americans are not getting a look-in. US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton says she wants to drive a wedge between Syria and Iran but wakes up the next day to find out that arguably the three most powerful men in the region meet for lunch, declare undying love and vow that Israel will be defeated in Lebanon.
All Lebanese who value their security and sovereignty should be very worried, but then again Lebanon is a country in denial. The air has been filled with martial rhetoric in recent weeks with the drumbeat of conflict getting louder. Israeli jets fly over our airspace with impunity, while the recent banquet in Damascus is a painful reminder to the Lebanese that they can hold all the elections they want, wave as many flags as they want, but when President Assad wants to hold its own brand of bilateral talks, a call is placed to Dahiyeh, not Baabda or the Serail.
And why shouldn’t he? The Syrian leader is riding high. He has got everything he wants with no major concessions. The US has failed to assert its authority in the region and yet it has re-opened its embassy in Damascus; Iran, Syria’s closest ally, has not yet had to back down on anything with regard to its nuclear program; and the Saudis have told the Lebanese to be nice while it wants to make friends. What’s not to like?
The fear now must be that an increasingly desperate Washington, in its bid to wrench Damascus away from Tehran, forgets the pledges it has made to uphold Lebanese democracy.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah continues to turn the screw in Lebanon. Its most recent muscle flexing has seen it use the paranoia surrounding the recent “Dubaigate” scandal to consolidate its grip on matters of national security, insisting that foreigners entering Lebanon from Europe be screened with more rigor, that visitors with “Jewish” names be vetted, and – and this is even more sinister – their hosts scrutinized. This is another example of Hezbollah being allowed to put the interests of the Resistance before the state, not to mention another blow to Lebanon’s unique plurality.
Those who supported the attempted coup of May 2008 will, on the grounds that state security was at risk, no doubt applaud Hezbollah for its proactive vigilance, crowing that once again we can only trust our security to the alertness of the moqawama.
But once again, we have to decide ourselves what nation we want to be. As things stand, all notions of sovereignty, freedom and independence are in shreds. On a macro level the state has been emasculated, its very future in the hands of what the writer William Harris called “Lebanon's would-be super-power.” On a micro level the country is hostage to a political party whose philosophy is predicated on an atmosphere of suspicion and the craving for conflict instead of one dedicated to nation building and prosperity.
Then again we may have already lost the right to decide.

Dinner in Damascus: What Did Iran Ask of Hizballah?
By David Schenker and Matthew Levitt
March 2, 2010
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3181
On February 26, Syrian president Bashar al-Asad hosted Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad and Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah for a dinner in Damascus. Nasrallah is a routine guest in the capital, but the timing of this high-profile trip -- just a week after the United States dispatched Undersecretary of State William Burns to Damascus and nominated its first new ambassador in five years -- seemed calculated not only to irritate Washington, but also to highlight the central role Hizballah plays in Iran and Syria's strategic planning. Apart from serving as a pivot between Tehran and Damascus, however, the group also holds the power to engulf Lebanon and perhaps the entire region into another war through actions of its own.
Unfulfilled Promise of Retaliation
Two years after Hizballah military commander Imad Mughniyah was assassinated in Damascus -- prompting Nasrallah to declare an "open war" on Israel, the presumed perpetrator -- the group has yet to successfully retaliate. But it is not for lack of trying: in 2008, two Hizballah operatives and several Azerbaijani nationals were convicted of plotting attacks against the Israeli and U.S. embassies in Baku and sentenced to fifteen years in prison. The same year, Turkish authorities foiled as many as six possible Hizballah terrorist plots targeting Israelis and possibly the local Jewish community. Iranian intelligence agents were reportedly helping the group establish a network of operatives posing as tourists.
During his February 16, 2010 speech marking the martyrdom of Mughniyah and other Hizballah heroes, Nasrallah rationalized the conspicuous lack of significant retaliation: "Our options are open and we have all the time in the world....[W]e are the ones to choose the time and place and target." He also suggested that Hizballah had not yet found a target that "rises to the level" of Mughniyah.
Meanwhile, the group has been preparing for a conventional fight against Israel by stockpiling weapons in the south in violation of UN Security Council resolutions. In July 2009, for example, a large arms depot believed to contain bullets, rockets, and artillery shells exploded in Khirbet Silim village, nine miles north of the Israeli border. Three months later, another Hizballah cache detonated near Tayr Filsay village just south of the Litani River. It is unclear whether these explosions were coincidental or acts of (presumably) Israeli sabotage. In addition, a month after the second explosion, the Israeli navy interdicted a ship carrying fifty-five tons of Iranian weapons to Hizballah. Then, in January 2010, UN peacekeepers uncovered 660 pounds of explosives buried along the Israel border, reportedly pre-positioned by the Shiite militia.
These discoveries represent only a fraction of the weapons Hizballah has procured during its most recent massive military buildup. Since the 2006 war with Israel, the group has acquired an estimated 40,000 rockets and -- with Syria's help -- reportedly improved the quality of its arsenal. In addition to boosting the range of this stockpile, Syria may have provided the organization with the Russian-made shoulder-fired Igla-S antiaircraft system, which is capable of downing Israeli F-16s. Nasrallah hinted at this possibility in February 2009, stating, "Every few days, reports appear that the resistance has acquired...sophisticated air defense missiles," adding coyly, "Of course, I neither deny nor confirm this." U.S. officials have already confirmed in the Arab press that Hizballah is training with Syria on the antiquated SA-2 antiaircraft system.
New Strategy against Israel
To complement its upgraded arsenal, Hizballah recently spelled out a new, more aggressive military posture toward Israel. Since the 2006 war, rumors have persisted that the group would cross the border and "take the fighting to Israel" in the next conflict. During his February 16, speech, Nasrallah offered a new vision of strategic parity with Israel, if not an advanced conception of the organization's longstanding "balance of terror" strategy.
Deriding Israel's "Iron Dome" missile defense system as a "science fiction movie," Nasrallah upped the ante by pledging to go toe to toe with Israel in the next campaign. In 2009, he had warned that if Israel bombed the Hizballah stronghold in Beirut's southern Dahiya suburb,, then the group would "bomb Tel Aviv." This time he went one step further, stating that if Israel bombed Beirut airport, "We will bomb Ben Gurion airport," and then adding ports, oil refineries, factories, and power plants to the list. He also boasted that Hizballah would confront Israeli threats "not with withdrawal, hiding, or fear, but with clarity, steadfastness, preparedness, and with threats, too."
Repairing Hizballah's Image in Lebanon
Despite considerable success in rebuilding an impressive military infrastructure under the nose of UN observers, Hizballah's image has suffered at home. In May 2008, the group invaded and occupied Beirut. In June 2009, it failed to win a majority in Lebanese parliamentary elections. That same month, the fraudulent presidential election in Iran undermined the legitimacy of Hizballah's chief patron and its controversial doctrine of velayat-e faqih (Islamic governance), to which the group adheres.
Even more detrimental to Hizballah's domestic standing is evidence implicating the group in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri, as reported by Der Spiegel in May 2009 and underscored by Le Monde last month. Nasrallah has repeatedly denied these stories, but the public perception that the Shiite militia was involved in the killing of the Lebanese Sunni leader persists. Worse, in September 2009, one of Hizballah's chief local financiers went bankrupt in a Ponzi scheme -- a particularly damaging scandal given that it involved the same kind of corruption that the group routinely accuses the Sunni government in Beirut of perpetrating.
Nasrallah has attempted to mitigate the impact of these accusations and soften public attitudes toward the group. In his February 16 speech, for example, he offered condolences to the Hariris on the anniversary of Rafiq's martyrdom. And in December 2009, he delivered a surreal speech promoting the novel idea that his constituents should adhere to Lebanese laws, such as respecting traffic signals, paying for (as opposed to stealing) government water and electricity, abiding by building laws and civil codes, and putting an end to smuggling that undercuts Lebanese businesses. In addition, he emphasized the importance of civil servants showing up for their jobs and actually performing their duties.
Hizballah's efforts to improve its image also included the publication of a new "manifesto" in November 2009, updating its 1985 charter. Although the new document reiterated the group's longstanding enmity toward the United States and its commitment to "resistance," it differed from the 1985 version in ways seemingly designed to reingratiate the organization to a broad Lebanese audience. For example, the new version downplayed Hizballah's allegiance to the clerical leadership in Tehran and instead focused on its participation in the Lebanese political system. Likewise, rather than urging Lebanese Christians to convert -- as the 1985 manifesto put it, "We call upon you to embrace Islam" -- the group adopted the more palatable conciliatory language of consensus politics.
Conclusion
If Hizballah succeeds in avenging Mughniyah by striking an Israeli target -- whether on the border or abroad -- it could set off another round of fighting similar to that of 2006. This time, however, other actors could well enter the fray. If one takes Damascus at its word, Syria may decide to participate in the next Israeli-Hizballah war, a development that could spark a region-wide conflagration. At the moment, Hizballah may be keeping its powder dry on orders from Tehran, in anticipation of an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Still, avenging Mughniyah is a key priority for the group, and its success or failure in meeting this goal could be the difference between the current status quo and a regional war.
**David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. **Matthew Levitt is a senior fellow and director of the Institute's Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence.
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy · 1828 L Street NW Suite 1050 Washington DC 20036
Tel: 202-452-0650 · Fax: 202-223-5364 · Contact · Privacy Policy · © 2010 All rights reserved