LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 12/10

Bible Of the Day
Luke 4/16-20: " He came to Nazareth, where he had been brought up. He entered, as was his custom, into the synagogue on the Sabbath day, and stood up to read. 4:17 The book of the prophet Isaiah was handed to him. He opened the book, and found the place where it was written, 4:18 “The Spirit of the Lord is on me, because he has anointed me to preach good news to the poor. He has sent me to heal the brokenhearted, to proclaim release to the captives, recovering of sight to the blind, to deliver those who are crushed, 4:19 and to proclaim the acceptable year of the Lord.” 4:20 He closed the book, gave it back to the attendant, and sat down. The eyes of all in the synagogue were fastened on him. 4:21 He began to tell them, “Today, this Scripture has been fulfilled in your hearing.”/Now Lebanon

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Disarming Hezbollah/By: STEVEN SIMON & JONATHAN STEVENSON/Foreign Affairs 11/01/10
New Opinion: A total shame/Now Lebanon/January 11, 10
Israel land sales threaten to split Greek Orthodox church/By Inter Press Service/January 11/10
An Arab world without borders/The Daily Star/January 11/10
Israel and NATO: Between membership and partnership/By Shlomo Ben-Ami/January 11/10

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 11/10
Israel to Build a Border Fence With Egypt/ABC News
Lebanon, Turkey Sign Cooperation Agreements/Naharnet
Jumblat Finally Meets Aoun: Reunion Brings End to Reconciliation Process /Naharnet
Al-Saad: Some exploits the displaced to empower FPM/Future News
Lebanese Army Fire at Israeli Warplanes over South /Naharnet
Shweifat: Political Reconciliation without Popular Base /Naharnet
Suleiman in South on Inspection Tour /Naharnet
Hariri on Official Visit to Turkey, Talks to Tackle Scrapping Entry Visas/Naharnet
Lebanon, Turkey sign bilateral agreements/Now Lebanon
Moussawi: Some political figures still deny domestic developments/Now Lebanon
Mottaki meets with Hezbollah delegation in Syria/Now Lebanon
'Hizbullah, Lebanese army the same'/Jerusalem Post
Sfeir: More Christians need to join army to keep balance
Malaysian Christians fearful as church attacks increase/Daily Star
US suggestion of sanctions prompts outrage in Israel/Daily Star
US say Iran's nuclear facilities 'can be bombed/AFP
Iran MPs slam treatment of detainees/Daily Star
Jumblatt and Hezbollah seal Lebanon reconciliation accord/AFP
Jumblatt says PSP-Shiite reconciliation concluded/Daily Star
Visas scrapped as Hariri firms ties with Turkey/Daily Star
Abboud promises nationwide tourism reform for Lebanon/daily Star
Geagea says he already opened new page with Syria/Daily Star
Sleiman, Berri upbeat on issue of appointments/Daily Star
Hizbullah denies profiting from German drug trade/Daily Star
Ex-finance minister calls for new economic thinking in Lebanon/Daily Star
Beirut stock market rises by 33 percent in 2009/Daily Star
Celebration held for children of LAF martyrs/Daily Star
Danish UNIFIL soldier killed in road accident/Daily Star
Bahia Hariri chosen for board of Al-Quds University/Daily Star
Two car theft ringleaders die in shootout with army/Daily Star
Hamas: Judge blames 'package' for Dahiyeh blast/Daily Star
Six Tripoli radio stations closed over lack of permitseee/Daily Star
Najjar discusses forming human rights department/Daily Star
UNIFIL condemns Israeli overflights/Daily Star

Barak to senior US officials: Hezbollah is still rearming
Published: 01.10.10, Israel News
Defense Minister Ehud Barak said to the four US senators visiting Israel, including John McCain and Joseph Lieberman, that Hezbollah is continuing to rearm, and that the Lebanese government bears responsibility for every shot fired into Israel. "We will not go hunting after individual terrorists," said Barak to the four, who are slated to hold a press conference Sunday afternoon in Jerusalem. Minister Barak spoke with them about the need to re-launch negotiations with the Palestinians and on the Iranian nuclear issue. (Roni Sofer)

'Hizbullah, Lebanese army the same'
By HERB KEINON/Jerusalem Post
Israel has launched a diplomatic campaign to impress upon countries providing military assistance to Lebanon that any equipment and technology it provides the Beirut government is likely to fall into Hizbullah's hands, The Jerusalem Post has learned. According to government sources, the position Israel is trying to impress on countries that support Lebanon is that the Lebanese army and Hizbullah are virtually indistinguishable. As such, Israel is calling on countries that provide military aid to Lebanon to rethink the matter. In early December, the Lebanese parliament gave a vote of confidence to the government of Saad Hariri and approved a government platform that allowed Hizbullah to maintain its arms in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions.
From that time, which also included a declaration that Hizbullah had a mandate to defend Lebanon from Israel, "there has been a great deal of concern here," one official said. The main concern, the official said, is weaponry being provided or pledged by the US. The issue is likely to be raised during the expected meetings here Tuesday with US National Security Advisor James Jones. The US has long provided military assistance to Lebanon. Over the past years this military assistance has included aircraft, tanks, artillery, small boats, infantry weapons, ammunition, Humvees and cargo trucks. The US is expected to provide the Lebanese army with 12 Raven unmanned reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft in the coming months.

Mottaki meets with Hezbollah delegation in Syria
January 11, 2010 /Al-Manar television reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki arrived in Damascus on Monday, during which he met with a Hezbollah delegation headed by the political aid to the party’s secretary general, Hussein Khalil. -NOW Lebanon

Moussawi: Some political figures still deny domestic developments
January 11, 2010 /Now Lebanon/Hezbollah International Relations Officer Ammar Moussawi told NBN television on Monday that “some political figures are still in denial over domestic developments,” referring to the recent reconciliations between Lebanese parliamentary blocs. He added that such political figures believe they are “internationally strategically significant.”
He said that recent reconciliations were planned “a while ago,” and that certain parties’ lack of participation results from them seeing no personal benefit from the meetings. “They keep on having objections,” said Moussawi. He also said it is a shame to say the cabinet was formed “under the pressure of weapons.” -NOW Lebanon

Jumblat Finally Meets Aoun: Reunion Brings End to Reconciliation Process
Naharnet/Druze leader Walid Jumblat
announced at the end of his long-awaited reunion with Free Patriotic Movement chief Michel Aoun that the meeting brings the reconciliation process to an end.
"Enough is enough. My meeting with Aoun brings the reconciliation process to an end," Jumblat told reporters from Rabieyh at the end of his hour-long meeting with Aoun.
"The meeting was not directed against anyone," Jumblat said during a joint press conference. "It is in the interest of the country and the nation and national unity."
Jumblat said the issue of the displaced people was the focal point of discussions.
He noted that committees had been set up to pursue reconciliation and the return of the displaced people to the mountains.
Jumblat said he was delighted that members of the new national unity government have emerged from their "old trenches."
He pointed that certain issues are to be discussed in Cabinet while others are to be tackled at the dialogue table.
Aoun, for his part, said the reconciliation was "aimed at removing the psychological and social barriers between citizens, after having removed the natural barriers."
"The return by itself is not sufficient as the mountain needs to be developed in order for its people to be able to return," he said. In remarks published earlier Monday, Jumblat said his Rabiyeh visit comes within the context of talks with Aoun under the auspices of President Michel Suleiman "on the need to conclude the issue of the return of the displaced persons." "This would be the last leg of the reconciliation process," Jumblat told daily As-Safir. He denied any knowledge of a meeting with former President Emile Lahoud. Meanwhile, former Cabinet Minister Mario Aoun said Monday that contacts have reached an "advanced stage of understanding" about the psychological return of the displaced people and the return to a situation of Christian-Muslim coexistence in the mountains. Beirut, 11 Jan 10, 12:39

Al-Saad: Some exploits the displaced to empower FPM
Date: January 11th, 2010/Future Site
Democratic Gathering bloc MP Fouad al-Saad accused Monday some politicians of exploiting the displaced file intentionally to grant the Free Patriotic Movement a significant role in the area, stressing that Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt does not need any external assistance to bring back the displaced to their villages.
Deputy al-Saad did not participate in Monday’s meeting between the bloc leader MP Walid Jumblatt and MP Michel Aoun in Rabieh nor in the reconciliation meeting in Choueifat on Sunday, between the Progressive Socialist Party, the Lebanese Democratic Party, Hizbullah and the Amal Movement. The reconciliation is reportedly intended to create a spirit of consensus and trust between parties, especially in light of the situation following the 2008 May 7 events. Al-Saad told Almustaqbal.org that the displaced file was handed over to Jumblatt because he is the most qualified to hammer out a resolution to this impasse. “Jumblatt is capable of settling this file permanently within few days if he had adequate budget allocated to this issue,” he added. The MP pointed that PSP leader Jumblatt pledged that, in addition to compensating on the citizens, he would ensure the security situation in the mountain as well as guarantee the repatriation of displaced as well as the restoration of destroyed houses.
Maronite and Druze militias fought bloody wars between 1983 and 1984 in Mount Lebanon, forcing thousands of Christians to flee their villages in the Chouf and Aley regions. These were dubbed the “displaced of the Mountain.” Al-Saad denounced the claim that some deputies of the mountain did not pay importance to the file of the displaced, noting that only few areas have not achieved reconciliation yet, including the villages of Brih, Abei and Kfar Silwan, however asserted that those three villages are awaiting sufficient funds from the ministry and the National Fund to close the file. Furthermore, al-Saad said despite the fact that the reconciliation aims to “remove the repercussions of the previous black days precisely May 7,” still the Lebanese policymakers have to endeavor to achieve coexistence, consensus and harmony. MP al-Saad confirmed that Jumblatt meeting with the March 8 coalition does not mean he abandoned the March 14 alliance. Meanwhile, Jumblatt stressed that the meeting with Aoun contributes to the Mountain reconciliation made in 2001 between himself and Maronite Patriarch Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir.

Lebanese Army Fire at Israeli Warplanes over South
Naharnet/Lebanese anti-aircraft guns opened fire on four Israeli fighter planes which were violating its air space and flying at low altitude on Monday, the military said. "The army's anti-aircraft guns fired at four enemy Israeli planes that had been overflying the (southern) area of Marjayoun this morning," an army spokesman told AFP.
An AFP correspondent in southern Lebanon said about 70 rounds had targeted four Israeli planes. While Lebanon's army publishes almost daily reports of Israeli violations of Lebanese air space, the military rarely opens fire unless the planes fly within range of its guns. The Israeli infringements are a breach of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 which ended the devastating 2006 war between Israel and Hizbullah. Israel argues that the overflights are necessary to monitor what it says is massive arms smuggling by Hezbollah in breach of the same resolution.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 11 Jan 10, 11:08

Shweifat: Political Reconciliation without Popular Base
Naharnet/A Druze-Shiite reconciliation that took place in Shweifat Sunday ended in strengthening connections between Beirut's southern suburbs and the mountains. But the political reconciliation lacked a popular base. The reconciliation among Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat and the Shiite alliance made up of Hizbullah and AMAL Movement did not include the nearby village of Deir Qoubel. Al-Liwaa daily said Monday that the reunion was attended by Shweifat residents but was "short of" a PSP base with a "remarkable turnout" of supporters of Talal Arslan's Lebanese Democratic Party. It said this implies that PSP supporters were still reluctant to accept such reconciliation which is aimed at putting an end to the repercussions of the May 7, 2008 events. Al-Akhbar newspaper, meanwhile, said different opinions surrounded the issue.
It said family members of the victims who were killed during clashes between PSP fighters and others from Hizbullah and AMAL in May 2008 were divided among themselves.
While some described the reconciliation as an end to the feud, others believed it was only reconciliation between politicians and not the people. "The reconciliation is important to calm the soul and stop the bloodshed, but it cannot heal the wounds of the families of martyrs," one of the victim's brothers was quoted as telling al-Akhbar. "Nothing can compensate a dead person," he added. Jumblat, in turn, admitted that he had made an "unpopular decision." "I knew from the first moment that this decision was not a popular one," Jumblat said in remarks published Monday by Al-Akhbar. He was responding to a question concerning the stance of some young PSP members opposing Jumblat's policy shift. "True that I am losing popularity, but I want to achieve real reconciliations," he added. Beirut, 11 Jan 10, 08:22

Suleiman in South on Inspection Tour
Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman arrived in south Lebanon on Monday to inspect UN peacekeepers and Lebanese troops. His arrival at midday came shortly after Lebanese anti-aircraft guns opened fire on four Israeli warplanes which were flying at low altitude over Marjayoun. Suleiman was scheduled to visit the Spanish contingent in Marjayoun as well as Lebanese troops. He was likely to tour the Blue Line and the outskirts of Ghajar, media reports said. Beirut, 11 Jan 10, 12:50

Hariri on Official Visit to Turkey, Talks to Tackle Scrapping Entry Visas
Naharnet/Prime Minister Saad Hariri's visit to Turkey on Sunday is reportedly aimed at scrapping entry visas for the nationals of the two countries and consolidating defense, health and agricultural cooperation. The office of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Friday that the two sides will discuss bilateral ties and ways to improve them in several fields. Hariri is also expected to discuss with Erdogan, Turkish President Abdullah Gul and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Monday the Palestinian issue and latest developments in the Middle East. An Nahar daily said Saturday that Interior Minister Ziad Baroud, who will accompany Hariri, will sign on behalf of Lebanon the agreement on scrapping the entry visas.
From Ankara, Hariri is scheduled to head to Istanbul on Tuesday to attend the Turkish-Lebanese Economic Gathering. The PM returns to Beirut later in the day.
In addition to Baroud, Ministers Mohammed Jawad Khalifeh, Ghazi Aridi, Salim Wardeh, Mohammed Rahal, Ali al-Shami, Hussein al-Hajj Hassan, Jebran Bassil, and Hariri's advisor Mohammed Shatah accompanied the premier to Turkey. President Michel Suleiman had visited Ankara on April 21, 2009 on the head of a 60-member delegation. It was the first visit of a Lebanese head of state to Turkey since 1955. Beirut, 10 Jan 10, 19:10

A total shame
January 11, 2010
Now Lebanon
The process of Syria’s “return” to Lebanon saw another humiliation inflicted upon the spirit of March 14 in Choueifat on Sunday, when Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt was forced to kiss and make up with his former rivals, including Loyalty to the Resistance bloc MP Mohammad Raad, Development and Liberation bloc MP Ali Hassan Khalil and Lebanese Democratic Party leader MP Talal Arslan.
The location of the meeting was telling. It was in the hills above this quiet Beirut suburb that over the weekend of May 10, 2008 the country was dragged to the brink of a full-blown civil conflict, when the fighting that had begun on May 7 in Beirut spread to the Mountain. It was there that the Hezbollah-led gunmen, who had days earlier prevailed so swiftly and mercilessly on the streets of Beirut, came up against more determined resistance, most notably from Jumblatt’s Druze fighters.
What was widely seen as an attempt to bring down the Siniora government after it had threatened to dismantle Hezbollah’s private phone network and fire a security chief at the international airport was stopped in its tracks. Nonetheless, the point had been made and the government backed down, agreeing, at gunpoint, to the shameful Doha Conference. Disaster had been averted, but the country had once again stared into the abyss.
More alarming was the fact that the myth surrounding Hezbollah’s aura of martial purity had been shattered. The party, whose autonomy many were prepared to accept because it was supposedly committed to defending Lebanon’s pride and dignity against what it portrayed as a ruthless Israeli enemy, had shown that at the end of the day it too was equally ruthless, just another thuggish militia that would not hesitate to deliver violence to protect its interests. These interests cost the lives of innocent civilians, including a mother and son, caught in the Beirut crossfire.
Back in Choueifat, Sunday’s “ceremony” – which was described by MP Ali Khalil as “the embodiment of our special relations with Syria and our faith in Palestine, which remains the central cause” – was drenched in rhetoric that touched on the healing of “painful wounds”, the need for “co-existence” and, curiously enough, commitment to the Resistance in the face of “Israeli aggression.” Quite how Israel managed to make its way into a wholly Lebanese problem is anyone’s guess. But then again, this is the Middle East, and if you want to get people on your side, one way to do so is to wave a stick at Israel. Arslan added that any attack launched by any Lebanese party against the Resistance targets Lebanon as a whole and that Israel and its allies were “setting traps to negate the achievements of the Resistance.”
Shame on them! The most serious security incident of Lebanon’s post-war period, an incident that showed just how easy it is to deploy hate-filled gunmen on the streets and hills of Lebanon, has been glossed over with a hug and handshake and a call to redouble our collective efforts against the Zionist enemy threat.
What is even more galling is that those who still wish to question and seek accountability for the actions of the March 8 gunmen over those five terrible days in May 2008 were alluded to as traitors, because, in killing innocent people and holding the country hostage, Hezbollah, Amal and their allies in the SSNP were fighting an Israeli conspiracy.
This guff and nonsense may have been easy to swallow for the supporters of Amal and Hezbollah, and no doubt, their allies in the Free Patriotic Movement who have convinced themselves that the whole affair was nothing more than a regrettable police action necessary for the stability of the country. For their part, the Druze, especially those who support Jumblatt and who threw in their lot with the Independence Intifada, must be disappointed in the glaring volte face made by their leader.
But for many thousands of Lebanese, this disgraceful period will not be so easily forgotten, even if for the time being they will be reeling in shock at the ease with which murder, mayhem and genuine treason can be squared away with a nod and a wink.

Mohammad Raad
January 11, 2010
On January 10, the Lebanese National News Agency carried the following report:
The town hall of Choueifat witnessed this afternoon a quartet reconciliation meeting to put an end to the repercussions of the May 7, 2008 events with the participation of the deputy Ali Hassan Khalil, representing the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri; the deputy Muhammad Raad representing Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah; the head of the Democratic Gathering, deputy Walid Jumblatt; and the head of the Lebanese Democratic Party, deputy Talal Arslan, in the presence of other figures...
Following the meeting, Deputy Raad delivered a speech on behalf of Sayyed Nasrallah, stating: “[Recites verse from a poem by Al- Mutanabbi regarding the challenges that face great leaders]... Allow me, first, to salute those who have exerted truthful efforts and deployed unified attempts to hold this popular meeting, which is filled with national and moral responsibility, under the banner of tolerance and openness, between our honorable people in Choueifat and Dahiyeh [southern suburbs of Beirut]. I would also like to thank Prince Talal Arslan for his great attention and his positive follow- up. I also salute and praise the courageous leader Walid Bek Jumblatt who, with great bravery, has turned one of the futile pages in the history of our joint struggle. On the other hand, it is needless to corroborate the concern, positive cooperation and ongoing follow-up of Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, while pointing out the efforts deployed by many loyal figures and national Islamic powers to reach this advanced stage and [also pointing out the] continued, enhancing civil peace in our dear country, Lebanon.
“Between Choueifat and Mount Lebanon, and between the southern suburbs, the South and the Bekaa, there is an inevitable level of coexistence, historical relations, mutual respect and joint interests. This cannot change, and there is no alternative to it. Partnership between us is constant. It is a permanent commitment and a strategic interest for us, for Lebanon and for all the Lebanese. This partnership cannot be affected by a mistake or a misunderstanding, since it is too deep, wide and solid to be shaken by a hurricane or undermined by pressures.
“Honorable people, we have put our hands in yours, and we will confront the challenges together. Together, we are stronger - and the country is stronger. We can thus protect its land and its people against the projects of the enemy. In the past and the present, we were, and still are, a unified front with multiple axes, drawing a long history of joint struggle against an existential, racist Zionist enemy, which is targeting us all, and against domestic backwardness on the political, developmental and economic levels through which those implicated want Lebanon to remain under the control of the powers of arrogance and hegemony. Despite the division, the dismantlement and the conflicts, we have deterred the projects together, and our solidarity ousted the Israeli occupation from our land. We also consecrated the resistance option as a national choice, which has proved its efficiency in defending the country and its entire population. Today, we are seeking the establishment of a strong, capable and just state for all Lebanese, regardless of their regions, sects and inclinations.
“Together, we will fight to secure the right of the Palestinian people to return to their land and support their central and legitimate cause..., and together we will resume exceptional relations with Syria in order to serve the interests of both our countries and people [s].
“Choueifat, Khaldeh, the road of dignity in Mount Lebanon, and what the resistance has accomplished in terms of victory and pride for Lebanon and the Arab and Islamic world, corroborate the importance of the ties we enjoy and the results they have entailed.
“This meeting is not only aimed at turning a page which we never want to read again, but also aims to stress our determination to move forward and protect each other, our country, our Lebanese partners and our allies among the Palestinian and Arab strugglers...”

Disarming Hezbollah
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65921/steven-simon-and-jonathan-stevenson/disarming-hezbollah
Foreign Affairs 11/01/2010
Summary: Demilitarizing Hezbollah is a daunting proposition, but it is a worthy one. The Obama administration should reconsider its hesitance to join British efforts already underway and suspend its ban on official contact with Hezbollah.
STEVEN SIMON is Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
JONATHAN STEVENSON is Professor of Strategic Studies at the U.S. Naval War College
On November 9, some five months after Lebanon's parliamentary elections, the country's two main political blocs finally formed a governing cabinet. Until then, negotiations between the two -- Prime Minister Saad Hariri's Western-backed coalition and the powerful opposition led by Hezbollah -- had been deadlocked over several issues, including Hezbollah's disarmament. One month after reaching the deal, the government adopted a bill allowing Hezbollah to keep its weapons. The Hezbollah bloc controls 10 out of 30 cabinet seats in the new government, which means that many are pessimistic about Lebanon's future prospects.
Hezbollah is one of the best equipped and most capable militant groups in the world. Its decades-long resistance against Israel served it well, winning it favor among Lebanon's Shia Muslims, who constitute about 40 percent of the population. Although Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000 and Hezbollah has partially transitioned to a political party, Hezbollah leaders remain resolutely anti-Israel for reasons of principle and pragmatism. Meanwhile, its charitable programs and community involvement have further reinforced its domestic credibility.
This situation is not stable. In 2006, for example, even though the Lebanese government never declared war, Hezbollah used its large weapons stockpile to fight Israel for over a month. And in May 2008, when then Prime Minister Fouad Siniora moved to shut down Hezbollah's communications network, the group responded by seizing much of Beirut, which triggered fears of renewed civil war. To end the confrontation, Hezbollah was granted veto power in the Lebanese cabinet. Hezbollah leaders no doubt understood this as affirming their right to keep their weapons. The absence of further discussions on disarmament in the cabinet has only strengthened this view. But as long as it is robustly armed, Hezbollah not only poses a threat to Israel but also to Lebanon.
Although Lebanese parliamentarians have so far been unable or unwilling to compel Hezbollah to give up its arsenal, other parties have been trying. Last June, six months of behind-the-scenes disarmament discussions culminated in a meeting between Frances Guy, the United Kingdom's ambassador to Lebanon, and Mohammad Raad, Hezbollah's parliamentary leader. The meeting, which was the first since relations were severed in 2005, yielded no immediate results. But the fact that the two sides are conversing at all is an essential preliminary to eventual disarmament talks.
Hezbollah, like the IRA 15 years ago, may be ready to shift more decisively into the political realm. For their part, the British are uniquely experienced in co-opting terrorist groups: their willingness to interact with Sinn Fein, the political wing of the Provisional Irish Republican Army, ultimately induced the IRA to agree to surrender its weapons as part of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. To be sure, the decommissioning process moved slowly until 2006, by which time Sinn Fein had become the second most powerful political party in Northern Ireland. The IRA was then convinced that the ballot box was more powerful than the gun and relinquished its weapons in earnest.
Of course, the IRA's strategic circumstances in the 1990s were very different from Hezbollah's today. The IRA was not beholden to any outside backer, and its justification for fighting -- that it needed weapons to defend Northern Irish Catholics who favored Irish unification against the Protestant unionist majority who wanted Northern Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom -- had largely evaporated by 1997. In contrast, Hezbollah depends on support from Iran and Syria and has served as their agent against Israel for decades. It also sees the current threat posed by Israel as greater now, because of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's reputation as a hard-liner, than in previous years.
But the similarities between the two cases are no less striking than the differences. Like Hezbollah, the IRA claimed to speak for an oppressed minority and had political and military wings. It had glorified armed resistance and had political ambitions for which a combination of violence and nonviolent politics had often proven useful.
Most important, Hezbollah, like the IRA 15 years ago, may be ready to shift more decisively into the political realm: a 2009 RAND study concluded that Hezbollah was distancing itself from Iranian patronage in order to increase its domestic legitimacy among parties that have viewed it as Tehran's lackey. And while the Hezbollah bloc did retain strong support in the June elections, taking 57 of 128 parliamentary seats, it lost out to Hariri's Western-backed coalition. Some of Hezbollah's leaders might see a move toward demilitarization as a new avenue for increasing the group's appeal and bolstering its credibility as a party. Contact with Hezbollah would have to exploit this impulse to be useful.
Demilitarizing Hezbollah is a daunting proposition, but it is a worthy one. The British, however, do not wield the same influence in the Middle East as they did in Ireland, meaning that decommissioning efforts cannot work without more outside involvement. The Obama administration should reconsider its hesitance to join the British efforts and should suspend its ban on official contact with Hezbollah.
To be sure, Washington has many reasons not to involve itself with Hezbollah. President Barack Obama is already facing criticism at home for his willingness to negotiate with Iran and Syria and his hard line on Israel's settlements policy. Any willingness on his part to authorize official contact with Hezbollah - Iran's and Syria's proxy against Israel -- would be all the more suspect among his domestic political opponents.
But actively seeking to demilitarize Hezbollah non-coercively has its advantages. Besides stabilizing Lebanon, orchestrating a decommissioning process could help roll back Iranian influence in the country, which already seems to be loosening due to Iran's domestic discord and Hezbollah's own growing anxieties about its relationship with Tehran. Syria has also become strategically weaker in the wake of its 2005 withdrawal from Lebanon. Damascus's inclination to participate in the ongoing Turkish-brokered peace negotiations with Israel indicates that it may be ready to work with Washington. Furthermore, the Obama administration is under considerable pressure to reenergize the Arab-Israeli peace process. A credible framework for demilitarizing Hezbollah might lower Israel's threat perceptions with respect to Hezbollah -- and, by extension, Iran and Syria -- and improve the currently dim prospects for peace.
Additionally, some observers have linked the Western-backed Hariri coalition's relative success against Hezbollah in the recent election to international good will toward Obama. Washington's participation in demilitarization efforts might make them all the more appealing and could encourage other interested parties, such as the European Union, Turkey, and perhaps Qatar, to join in. With such an the United States would be able to do what other players, such as Saudi Arabia (which brokered the 1989 agreement ending Lebanon's civil war, created a framework for Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, and called for disarmament of all militias) and the United Nations (which passed a resolution in 2006 to end the Hezbollah-Israel war and disarm Hezbollah) have not: mobilize sustained and broad support for Hezbollah's demilitarization. Such an inclusive effort might also convince Hezbollah that its future prospects depend on effective governance and rebuilding Lebanon's debt-ridden economy, not on its military arsenal.
For domestic political reasons and as a sound bargaining strategy, Washington would obviously have to treat Hezbollah with caution. Skeptics could credibly argue that, given Hezbollah's historical enmity toward the United States and the fact that it is not in immediate need of U.S. support, Washington should not consider approaching Hezbollah at all. Yet this warrants further scrutiny. Except for its suspected logistical support for the bombing of the Khobar Towers in 1996 and its alleged training of the Mahdi Army in Iraq several years ago, Hezbollah hasn't targeted the United States in a generation. Additionally, Hezbollah leaders undoubtedly fear that Israel will pay another, better calibrated visit, and might calculate that signing up to a demilitarization program would provide Hezbollah with at least some temporary immunity. Certainly, however, high-level contact is not in the cards -- nor should it be.
In this respect, the missteps of U.S. efforts in Northern Ireland are instructive. There, the Clinton administration dispatched a high-profile special envoy, George Mitchell, to take the lead in framing the peace process. President Bill Clinton even lent the effort personal support when he visited Belfast in November 1995. Thus, when the IRA broke its cease-fire by bombing London's Canary Wharf less than three months later, Washington was outraged.
The effort in Lebanon should be confined to back channels and implemented by mid-level U.S. officials until Hezbollah's willingness to cooperate has been established. Instead, the effort in Lebanon should be confined to back channels and implemented by mid-level U.S. officials until Hezbollah's willingness to cooperate has been established. Washington's activities should be coordinated with London's, and Israel should be kept informed throughout. In fact, to maximize Hezbollah's incentives to move forward, it would make sense to explore whether Israel would in principle agree to withdraw from the Shebaa Farms and refrain from attacking Lebanon if Hezbollah submitted to a decommissioning process. U.S. representatives could also indicate that the quality and quantity of American assistance to the Lebanese army would increase significantly if Hezbollah agreed to demilitarize. Once the groundwork has been laid, the State Department could discreetly dispatch higher-ranking officials to support the initiative through technical assistance modeled on Northern Ireland's independent commission for disarmament, headed by retired Canadian General John de Chastelain and former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari.
This kind of restrained and inconspicuous approach stands the best chance of being palatable to Hezbollah; the organization would be more inclined to go along with a demilitarization process involving quiet, negotiated decommissioning than one driven by grand démarches by outside powers. A quiet approach would also overcome U.S. domestic concerns about the program and would be circumspect enough to fireproof the administration if the process led nowhere. As a component of more expansive and inventive thinking about the Middle East peace process in general, gingerly testing Hezbollah's attitude toward disarmament could help reinvigorate American efforts in a critical region.