LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 03/10

Bible Reading of the day
Malachi 2/10-17: "Don’t we all have one father? Hasn’t one God created us? Why do we deal treacherously every man against his brother, profaning (defile) the covenant of our fathers? 2:11 Judah has dealt treacherously, and an abomination (disgrace) is committed in Israel and in Jerusalem; for Judah has profaned the holiness of Yahweh which he loves, and has married the daughter of a foreign god. 2:12 Yahweh will cut off, to the man who does this, him who wakes and him who answers, out of the tents of Jacob, and him who offers an offering to Yahweh of Armies. 2:13 This again you do: you cover the altar of Yahweh with tears, with weeping, and with sighing, because he doesn’t regard the offering any more, neither receives it with good will at your hand. 2:14 Yet you say, ‘Why?’ Because Yahweh has been witness between you and the wife of your youth, against whom you have dealt treacherously, though she is your companion, and the wife of your covenant. 2:15 Did he not make you one, although he had the residue of the Spirit? Why one? He sought a godly seed.  Therefore take heed (Observe) to your spirit, and let no one deal treacherously against the wife of his youth.  2:16 For I hate divorce,” says Yahweh, the God of Israel, “and him who covers his garment with violence!” says Yahweh of Armies. “Therefore take heed to your spirit, that you don’t deal treacherously. 2:17 You have wearied Yahweh with your words. Yet you say, ‘How have we wearied him?’ In that you say, ‘Everyone who does evil is good in the sight of Yahweh, and he delights in them;’ or ‘Where is the God of justice?’

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
From Tehran to the Suburb/By: Hassan Haidar/Al Hayat/January 02/10
The Oppression of the Iranian Regime Destroys Its Aura/By: Raghida Dergham/Al Hayat/January 02/10
A Project to Assassinate a State/By: Zuheir Kseibati/Al Hayat/January 02/
10
A soldier’s holiday/New Year’s Eve on a UNIFIL base/By: Ana Maria Luca/Now Lebanon/January 02/10

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 02/09
Israel acts like “spoiled child,” says Saudi FM/Now Lebanon
No official request to abolish Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council, says Nasri Khoury/Now Lebanon
First Wahhab, then Aoun on Jumblatt agenda/Now Lebanon
Sfeir: Content with reconciliations/Future News
Damascus to Start Implementing Assad-Hariri Meeting Resolutions/Naharnet
Baroud Says Major Car Theft Network Arrested/Naharnet
Khalil: Berri Won't Form Commission of Abolishing Political Sectarianism 'on His Own/Naharnet
Matar Says Offensive Article Row Ended after Apologies of Newspaper, Saudi Ambassador/Naharnet
'CNN Arabic' Poll Grants Assad 'Personality of the Year 2009' Title/Naharnet
Michel Hayek Predicts More Reconciliations, Security Tension and Economic Prosperity/Naharnet

Syria will gradually implement Hariri-Assad agreement/Future News


Damascus to Start Implementing Assad-Hariri Meeting Resolutions
/Naharnet/The outcome of PM Saad Hariri's first visit to Syria as Lebanon's premier and his meeting with its President Bashar Assad will start unfolding within the next few weeks, according to Syrian officials. The pan-Arab daily al-Hayat on Saturday quoted well-informed sources close to Syrian officials as saying that Lebanon and Syria have resolved their dispute over the different approaches to dealing with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559. "Damascus will prove to the Lebanese its commitment to the resolutions reached in the Assad-Hariri meeting," added the sources. The sources stressed that Syria "observes the improving of relations with Lebanon from a regional scope." On the other hand, al-Hayat sources confirmed that the dispute between Beirut and Damascus over Resolution 1559 has ended. "Lebanon cannot agree on the demands of withdrawing Resolution 1559 and annulling it for many reasons, starting by its credibility before the international community as well as the compliances of Resolution 1701 which mentions Resolution 1559," added the sources. Beirut, 02 Jan 10, 10:43


Baroud Says Major Car Theft Network Arrested

Naharnet/Interior Minister Ziad Baroud on Saturday said that security forces arrested the members of a major car theft network. At a press conference held in Tripoli, Baroud stressed that security forces, in cooperation with the Lebanese Army, are exerting important security efforts, describing the security situation Lebanon witnessed on New Year's eve as "exemplary." On the other hand, Baroud said that the electoral law of the upcoming municipal elections needs amending, the thing which is underway currently. Beirut, 02 Jan 10, 13:42

Khalil: Berri Won't Form Commission of Abolishing Political Sectarianism 'on His Own'
Naharnet/MP Ali Hassan Khalil on Saturday stressed that Speaker Nabih Berri "will not form the National Commission for the Abolition of Political Sectarianism on his own, but in a frame of understanding and cooperation among all political forces."In an interview with LBC TV network, Khalil stressed that "the issue of abolishing sectarianism is neither a provocation nor directed against anyone." Khalil added that Berri's call for abolishing political sectarianism came after a similar call made previously by President Michel Suleiman. Beirut, 02 Jan 10, 13:17

Matar Says Offensive Article Row Ended after Apologies of Newspaper, Saudi Ambassador
Naharnet/Maronite Archbishop of Beirut Boulos Matar on Saturday stressed that "the row of the insult" he received "because of an article published by the Saudi daily Okaz has ended after the apology of the newspaper and the Saudi Ambassador (to Lebanon) Ali al-Essiri." In an interview with Voice of Lebanon radio station, Matar said that what happened was a "mistake," and that there is no need to blow things out of proportion after the official apology of those concerned. On the other hand, Matar stressed that "Muslims and Christians respect each other, which is our (the Lebanese) fortune," adding that "Hizbullah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is a Lebanese leader who has all respect for Christians." Beirut, 02 Jan 10, 12:08

'CNN Arabic' Poll Grants Assad 'Personality of the Year 2009' Title

Naharnet/The readers of the website CNNArabic.com chose Syrian President Bashar Assad as the "Personality of the Year 2009" with a 67% of total votes after winning 20,687 votes out of 30,679. CNN Arabic considered that the improvement of Syrian-Lebanese relations and the recent visit of Lebanon's PM Saad Hariri to Syria helped in making Assad a key player in the region. The website added that at the end of the year, Assad reaped the fruits he had sown in its beginning. It said that Assad's participation in Doha's emergency summit of the Arab League during the Gaza War helped in boosting his popularity. Beirut, 02 Jan 10, 11:21

Obama ties failed plane attack to al Qaeda
US president says al Qaeda affiliate trained suspect in Christmas attack, gave him explosives for plane
Reuters Published: 01.02.10, 09:57 / Israel News
US President Barack Obama said it appeared the suspect who tried to bomb a Detroit-bound plane over Christmas was a member of al Qaeda and had been trained and equipped by the Islamic militant network.
Offering a robust defense of his administration's counterterrorism efforts, Obama said he received preliminary results of the reviews he ordered into air travel screening procedures and a "terrorist watchlist system" and expected final results in the days to come.
Obama, who is on vacation in Hawaii, had called for an immediate study of what he termed "human and systemic failures" that allowed 23-year-old Nigerian Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab to get on a flight from Amsterdam to Detroit on Dec. 25 allegedly with explosives in his clothes.
"The investigation into the Christmas Day incident continues, and we're learning more about the suspect," Obama said in his weekly radio and Internet address, released on Friday local time.
"It appears that he joined an affiliate of al Qaeda, and that this group, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, trained him, equipped him with those explosives and directed him to attack that plane headed for America," Obama said. The president's comments were his most explicit to date tying the suspect with the al Qaeda group. Obama, a Democrat, has come under intense criticism from Republicans, who accuse him of mishandling the incident and not doing enough to prevent attacks on the United States. Appearing on the defensive, Obama used much of his address to outline his administration's actions to keep the country safe, including withdrawing troops from Iraq, boosting troop levels in Afghanistan and strengthening ties with Yemen, where the suspect spent time before the attack.

A soldier’s holiday

New Year’s Eve on a UNIFIL base
Ana Maria Luca, Now Lebanon
January 2, 2010
Soldiers Yana Yoco and Ferrer at the post office in the Miguel de Cervantes UNIFIL base in Marjayoun. (NOW Lebanon)
If it weren’t for the “Happy Holidays” sign on the dining room door advertising the brief party that would take place later that evening, December 31 at the UN 7-2 Miguel de Cervantes base in Marjayoun would feel like any other day for the 1,100 Spanish UNIFIL soldiers posted there.
“We don’t have Sundays or holidays here. We stay here for four months, but those months are very intense. We are here to do a job and we cannot stop for a second,” Captain Miguel Gallego tells NOW.
The soldiers in the UNIFIL Multinational Brigade East – led by Spain but also including Chinese, Indian and Indonesian contingents – mainly conduct patrol missions on the Blue Line separating Lebanon from Israel. It’s not an easy – or safe – job for the UN peacekeepers. In 2007, six Spanish soldiers died in a suicide bomb attack while on a routine patrol in the Khiam area. Two other soldiers lost their lives in traffic accidents during missions.
“There are always dangers. If there were no danger, we wouldn’t be here,” the captain says.
Most of the Spanish soldiers in Marjayoun arrived in Lebanon only two weeks ago, but there are a few who have already spent two months on the base.
Sergeant Rizo, a bearded middle-aged man, has served in the Spanish army for 21 years and says he can’t see himself as anything but a soldier. “See these boots? They have been in Europe, Africa and Asia, Spain, Burundi, and now, Lebanon,” he laughs. He says he is used to spending Christmases and New Years thousands of miles from home.
For soldiers Ferrer Valdivia and Paul Yana Yoco Rueda, the holidays are the busiest time of the year. They work in the post office of the Spanish contingent and handle hundreds of packages and cards that soldiers send their families back in Spain for the holidays.
“Look around. This is the mail we gathered in four days,” Valdivia says pointing at a giant pile of boxes in the hangar.
Rueda, originally from Ecuador but now a Spanish citizen, says he is happy to be in Lebanon on his first international mission. He has been on the base for two months and is happy to say he’s had the chance to visit Beirut on a short trip. “It really looks like my native South America,” he says with a hint of nostalgia in his voice. But then he cheers up. “The girls are very chic here. They have their hair done, and they wear high heels. It’s a pleasure to look around you on the street.” He touches a silver ring on his finger. “But I have to remember I have a girlfriend.”
Valdivia says he hopes to travel around Lebanon too. “Until now I’ve only met very nice people from the villages around the base. It’s a miracle how they learned so easily to speak Spanish!” He says he also learned some Arabic during his short time on the base. “Yalla, yalla!” he laughs.
Spanish soldiers don’t get to choose the country they go to on international missions, but follow their unit wherever it deploys. Most of the Spanish soldiers who have been on missions in Iraq, Kosovo or Afghanistan say they are very happy in Lebanon.
“You feel that the people here want you to be with them. We feel far more comfortable here,” Nurse Suarez Rodriguez says. She was in Afghanistan on her previous mission and says the experience there was very different. “Here people are Mediterranean like us. There, you looked at people’s faces and you saw that they don’t like you, that they don’t want you there. The culture was very different,” she tells NOW. She says that even though she is on active duty and spends New Year’s Eve in the small Spanish hospital together with Doctor Gozalvez Sancez, she is happy. “New year, new life. That’s what I always say,” she chirps.
Dr. Sancez and Nurse Rodriguez at the first aid station on the base (NOW Lebanon)
If the hospital is virtually empty on New Year’s Eve, the contingent’s engineers are busy running from one armored vehicle to the next to make repairs.
Florencio Hernandez Martin is wearing his overalls and can’t shake hands because they are covered in engine oil. Though he misses his wife and daughters in Spain very much, “I see them every day on the webcam. Not yesterday, though, because the connection was bad,” he says.
Martin works on the recovery team. Whenever one of the UN vehicles is in trouble, breaks down or gets stuck in the mud when it rains, he leads his team off the base on a rescue mission. “A few days ago we had to go out to rescue a vehicle because it was stuck in the mud. They had to make way for a bus full of children, and they got stuck in a ditch.”
Martin has served in the Spanish army for 16 years, though Lebanon is his first international mission. But he says he is feeling happy like everyone else on the base, even though he is spending New Year’s Eve away from his family.
“It was quiet here over the holidays. We gathered on Christmas and we are gathering on New Year’s Eve in the dining room. We can have a glass of champagne, and then everybody is off to bed, because tomorrow is another day of work.”

A Project to Assassinate a State

Thu, 31 December 2009
Zuheir Kseibati
The cost of the “welcome” offered by the extremist Taliban and Al-Qaeda members to US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton in Pakistan goes beyond 300 dead and injured. The carnage caused by a booby-trapped car in Peshawar, which coincided with another huge strike in the heart of Kabul, was directed by the Taliban against UN employees, in order to devastate the role of the international organization in Afghanistan. The carnage is the most recent evidence that Al-Qaeda and Taliban have moved to the phase of counter- and intensive offense, so as to challenge the American and NATO forces and reveal their impotence in achieving any victory…
The "low" spirits of the Western world in the war on terrorism will inexorably reinforce the non-military option in facing the organization and the movement, while American President Barack Obama is still "reluctant" and cautious in determining the "new strategy" for fighting in Afghanistan.
While this caution is justified by his concern over lessening the losses of the Americans in Afghanistan, after these losses reached their climax since the toppling of the Taliban regime in 2001, this same caution has encouraged the movement's fighters to manipulate Washington's reluctance and thus entice its soldiers and expand the lists of its dead and number of coffins. It appears clear that Taliban responds with missiles to Obama's administration's offer to allow the movement's "moderates" to join the Afghani Government that will be formed after turning the page of the file of rigged elections. The answer is that there are "no moderates" among the ranks of Taliban, and the war is to come to its end. But how will the NATO forces achieve today what they have failed to achieve for eight years, while President Hamid Karzai's administration is accused of nurturing corruption and undermining the credibility of the American objectives in Afghanistan, instead of strengthening the growing army?
Taliban benefits from Karzai's reputation, who is accused of forging the elections, while the Americans leak a story saying that his brother received money from the C.I.A. While the Afghani President represents a predicament for Washington, the latter will face a bigger quandary when it experiments the "new strategy" to withdraw from the sand-fire, as long as Taliban considers that the bad reputation of the ruler in Kabul can improve its image, even if its suicide attacks claimed the lives of many innocent civilians. The movement also relies on the "mistakes" of the NATO, which have become daily events. But this certainly does not infer which side gains popularity among the Afghans, who represent fuel for daily killings.
Some of them will be able to accuse the American troops - whom Obama's administration will decide to deploy to heavily-populated areas – of using the civilians as "human shields" to protect themselves against the attacks of Taliban and Al-Qaeda and their suicide bombers… The same trap will incite the organization and the movement to accelerate the pace of "pursuing" the Western forces. This will increase the pressures put by the public opinion in Europe and the United States in order to end the war. But at what price? Is it by abandoning "victory" to those for whom the United States mobilized its troops to topple in Kabul in 2001?
Washington left for Karzai the civil aspect of managing Afghanistan, so that it becomes, along with its allies, in charge of the fighting in the field. Failure is a clear result of the first part of the mission, and Obama's administration fears that the fate of the war will also be a failure, after many years of destruction and blood, and after squandering tens of billions of dollars in vain. The only alternative for Washington is to talk to Taliban, i.e. accept to normalize its relations with Al-Qaeda's ally!
But what are the region's alternatives, as the very thought of Taliban's rule of its "emirate" in Afghanistan once again seems to be a sign of an imminent danger that threatens the destruction of the nuclear state of Pakistan and leaves it an easy prey for the nuclear…Al-Qaeda.
Isn't the pursuit of generals in the heart of Islamabad to liquidate them in daylight an indication of a new period, after challenging the Pakistani Army to break into its command's headquarters in Rawalpindi? When this army pursues Taliban in Waziristan, the movement responds in the cities. The army reiterates its confidence of its control of the nuclear arsenal, but it is certainly not confident of the American pledges after Washington quickly accepted anything that reinforces India's power, while it remained hesitant for so long with Pakistan, under the pretext of the bitter experiences of Islamabad's support of the war on Taliban and Al-Qaeda.
The eyes of a confused Obama are on Afghanistan, whose caves have beaten the greatest power in the world… The region's heart is with Pakistan whose state is threatened to be assassinated by the caves of the Afghani Al-Qaeda as well.

The Oppression of the Iranian Regime Destroys Its Aura

Fri, 01 January 2010
Raghida Dergham
The news from Iran is still in the limelight both in the region and in the world at large, and will continue to be so for some time, given that this internal affair has become an international issue, and since the regime in Tehran has been shaken, while its aura, stature and the absolute powers given to the Supreme Leader seem to have collapsed. Thus, the patience battle has started within Iran between reformists and hardliners, both of whom coming from a social fabric and political acumen that uses patience as a strategy and as a tactic, which in turn is an indication that this battle will drag on. Also, it is now too late for any compromises that may have months ago occurred to the senior officials in the regime, most importantly Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, such as offering Ahmadinejad as a scapegoat in order to put out the fire of the reformist revolution, or “coup” as the word also means in Persian. The page has thus been turned on the idea of the “grand bargain”, whereby the United States, Europe and the rest of world recognize the legitimacy of the ruling regime in Tehran, and offer the latter reassurances and guarantees of not supporting those who challenge the regime or rise up against it.
The Iranian leadership’s panic then manifested itself through the oppression by the militias and their brutality against the civilians, while terror was evident on the faces of extremist mullahs and of those individuals who are holding on to the idea of the religious-military monopoly of power in the country.
Moreover, the hitherto overwhelming self-confidence has also been shaken because of economic reasons, amidst the expectations of a large budget deficit that would tie the hands of the regime in what regards its regional ambitions from Iraq, to Palestine and Lebanon, and which would also hinder Tehran’s regional strategy as a result of its inability to spent as it did in the past.
Furthermore, the question of imposing further international sanctions against Iran has now entered the implementation stage, as a result of the regime’s irresponsiveness to the “carrot” offered in what regards the nuclear issue and the regime’s insistence on rendering any compromise impossible. As such, these sanctions will be extremely detrimental and harmful to the regime, no matter how hard the latter is trying to give the impression that these sanctions will have no effect, and that it is now impractical to carry on with imposing further sanctions, regardless of Iran’s domestic strife, or in waiting until the picture becomes clearer in what pertains to the current round of the confrontation in Iran.
As the world has been observing Iran’s neighbouring region, in light of the internal developments in Iran and the effects these may have in regional issues, the role of Saudi Arabia and Turkey came into the forefront, while attention turned to how Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas will deal with the Iranian incidents, and also to what Israel has in store in what regards Iran, at all levels. Iraq, however, remains at the forefront because this country is practically a compass and a balance that measures, even if clandestinely, what is going on in the minds of the Iranian leadership in terms of hegemony and in terms of the deals Iran is willing to reach whilst using retaliation as a bargaining card.
Meanwhile, the rules of engagement with Iran seem to have changed, given the condemnations that were expressed against the regime’s repressive measures. President Barack Obama would have preferred to avoid such an engagement altogether, as he was building a new relationship with the Islamic Republic in Iran. However, a new phase in the U.S relation with Iran has begun, with its slogan perhaps being: our patience versus yours. This is because Barack Obama, too, is good at being patient, an essential part of his nature and his fabric, and as such, he seems to be shifting and adjusting his position while closely watching the terror and panic of the regime in its war against the patience of the reformists.
Today, there is more than one view, and many expectations and hypotheses about what will happen in Iran. For instance, there is a scenario predicting that Ayatollah Khamenei and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s faction will provoke crises in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine, in order to divert attention away from the uprising inside Iran, and to justify suppressing all efforts at protest there. The opposing scenario, meanwhile, indicates that the regime needs to limit focus its efforts on the domestic developments in order to contain the dissidents and circumvent them; this will deplete all of its strengths and tie down its ability to implement any retaliation strategy.
While the first scenario is valid and plausible, and thus cannot be ruled out, the second scenario seems to be more likely to occur. This is because what is taking place in Iran is both terrible and astounding, and there can be no going back from it. It is a battle for survival that requires mobilizing a huge domestic crowd. In fact, the issue of the dichotomy within the Revolutionary Guard is of great importance, and an issue that Ayatollah Khamenei’s close circle does not understate. It is perhaps for this reason that this circle deployed the Basij in the streets, in order to suppress the protestors in the aftermath of the elections last summer.
The Basij were in fact bolstered as a result of haphazard recruitment based on money, and which was carried out by the authorities following the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinjead as president. According to insiders who are closely aware of the security hierarchy within the regime in Tehran, there is a narrow circle around Ayatollah Khamenei characterized by its ability to be chillingly brutal. This group is betting on the triumph of oppression against patience, and is working on uprooting the revolutions completely. However, the divisions within the guard may very well prove to be the thorn in this group’s back, which renders the domestic battle an outmost priority given that any deal between the loyalist camp and the opposition is impossible.
The very fact that the regime resorted to deploying the Basij militia to enforce the law in the country proves that the regime is inevitably on its way to collapsing, whether this takes a short or long time to happen.
On the other hand, the Islamic Republic of Iran has failed in exporting its theological police state. Iran thwarted its own efforts for greatness and regional dominion owing to its oppressive regime that invites hostility with its regional environment, and with both the east and the west, a regime that uses subterfuge as a means for having influence in the countries of the region, while employing militias for the purpose of coups, threats and interference in the affairs of other countries. Thus, the aura around the head of the regime in Iran has fallen.
In fact, Iran’s influence in Iraq waned because of the regime’s excessiveness in the methods it follows, and in its ideology and calculations. While Tehran did indeed reap the benefits bestowed upon it by the George W. Bush administration’s war in Iraq, it has failed in achieving its desires and ambitions regarding dividing Iraq, a goal that it shared with the neo-conservatives in the United States who orchestrated the Iraq war.
Iran strongly wanted to divide Iraq. However, the wisdom of the Iraqis, led by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, thwarted this objective. Even the Shiite leaders who wanted to divide Iraq to satisfy Iran’s ambitions changed their minds. Moreover, the view that religion and politics should be separated, and which was maintained by Ayatollah al-Sistani, triumphed in the end. Even the cleric Ammar Baqir al-Hakim is speaking today about a civil state in Iraq. Hence, Iran’s attitude in Iraq has changed in conjunction with its influence. Iran now realizes that there is no dependency by default on Iran by Iraq’s Shiites, nay, there is no dependency whatsoever when the ambitions touch on a national question such as Iraq’s unity, and the protection of its wealth and natural resources.
Of course, this does not mean that Iran does not have a large influence inside Iraq; quite the contrary, its influence there cannot be compared with that of any other neighbouring country. Moreover, it is clear that Iraq is very basic to the regional Iranian strategy, and to the one it adopts in dealing with the United States. It is also clear that the Iranian regime is in the position to activate its saboteurs in Iraq, and that the options of the first scenario mentioned above are not yet off the strategy table. In addition, it is clear that the comfort margin that the Iranian regime has enjoyed prior to the reformists’ rebellion against it is shrinking. Iran has itself now become surrounded domestically by the reformists’ revolution; regionally, by the Saudis embarking on the extremely important strategy of Intra-Arab reconciliation; and internationally, by the sanctions part of the U.S dual policy of dialogue and agreement, on one hand, and of preparing sanctions and other measures, on the other hand.
This situation requires the regional players to play several roles in order to benefit from the current situation with some deal of positivity, and away from the equation of sectarian competition that generates a harmful mobilization in any circumstances. While it is true that Turkey is playing an important regional role, the Saudi role remains vitally important in more than one area, extending from Iraq to Palestine.
It is not required of Iran’s neighbours to play a direct role in the domestic Iranian scene, because the internal Iranian affairs are not susceptible for intervention, and it is wiser that no Arab countries get involved. Also, the support that the reformists are seeking is an international moral support. Moreover, it is the right of the opposition in Iran to expect from the West, the East and the Arabs to provide a professional media coverage of what is taking place there, on the rooftops and on the streets, as part of the revolution during the course of which young men and women were killed in front of mobile phone cameras in “the internet uprising”, which was set off by the vote rigging that took place during the presidential elections.

Those dissidents are rising up against the regime’s oppressive and extremist side. They also comprise, however, those who have despaired of the worsening economic situation caused by political corruption, and smuggling through the military channels in power. According to insiders, while the Revolutionary Guard is the elite force, factions within it are responsible for the corruption, while the smuggling of alcoholic drinks has led to the increase of supply which manifested itself in cheaper alcohol. It is thus no secret from the dissidents in Tehran that some of those who are now on the side of the opposition, are merely riding the wave of the opposition when they themselves were until a short time ago in power, and made billions during the course of the revolution.
Those who are closely aware of the domestic situation in Iran point out that the senior clerics in Qom are mostly on the opposition’s side today, while only two senior clerics support the loyalist camp. They also point out that the most senior cleric in Qom, the late Ayatollah Montazeri was against vileyet-e-faqih [clerical rule] in the first place, before the latter’s stature collapsed when Ayatollah Khamenei entered as a direct political party in the presidential elections.
Moderation cannot co-exist with the doctrine of a regime, or a party that adopts a religious-militaristic-dominating ideology that is ever mobilizing support for itself; yet, the impact of the events being unfolded may impose a change that was not expected. Morally, the Republic is no longer what it used to be prior to the reformists’ revolution. On the material side, a sudden interruption of financial support will definitely affect Iran’s regional allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine. This is while the divisions within the Republican Guard will definitely impact the regional ambitions and their supporting strategies in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen.
Last fall, some issued a rash obituary of the reformists’ revolution, or coup in the Persian language. This year, however, the cards will be reshuffled and reconsidered. The reformists’ revolution has thus been unleashed, and Iran is now at the threshold of a momentous change.


From Tehran to the Suburb

Thu, 31 December 2009
Hassan Haidar
Ahmadinejad does not bother innovating to break the routine. Indeed, the dossier of the “American-Zionist scenario” is ready in his desk’s drawer and it would be enough for him to take it out and paste the names of the opposition leaders and the hundreds of thousands of those who took to the streets to demand change with their blood to relieve his conscience from the burden of discussing their demands, even if in form. For his part, a representative of Khamanei simply demanded their execution to spare both efforts and time and avoid trials and a media coverage which could expose the real criminals.
As for Hezbollah, it does not bother thinking about the reasons which made more than half of the Lebanese population reject the continuity of its arms and its security zones, headed by the Christians of the majority. It thus hurriedly reminded the latter of the lessons of May 7 and the fate of the Christians of Iraq, after casting boring accusations related to the wager on America and Israel.
Between Tehran and the Southern suburb of Beirut, there is a thick line of ideas, money and arms. There is also one mentality, one school and one method, that of accusing those who dare attack the opposition of treason and of marginalizing those who surrender or build alliances.
What made the situation in Iran concern us more than it should - considering it is a foreign country - is the fact that Tehran has infiltrated the details and privacies of many Arab states, at the head of which is Lebanon that engaged in a war on its behalf in 2006, and Iraq that is experiencing the occupation of parts of its territories and whose officials believe it is linked to their possible request for the re-negotiation of the Algeria Accord between the Shah and Saddam, in which the latter offered geographic concessions in exchange for Iran’s disregarding of his oppression of the Kurds.
However, what concerns us even more is the fact that Sayyed Nasrallah compared the Christians in Lebanon to those in Iraq, which forced some to wonder whether or not he made a mistake after he appeared as though he was recognizing Iran’s responsibility for the targeting of the Christians of Iraq “whom America was unable to protect,” without pointing to the side in the face of which they required protection. It was as though he were corroborating the fact that Iran’s strategy of submission was the same in all the places it could reach, knowing that many Iraqi circles assured that the Iranian-inclined Mahdi Army was the first to launch a campaign against the Christians in Basra and Baghdad.
As for the second mistake committed by Nasrallah, it was his attempt to isolate the Christians in Lebanon and distance them from the overall national dimension carried by the positions of their leaders toward the legitimacy of his arms, as well as their instigation against one another under claims that the problem was now theirs and that it required concord between them. In other words, he said that the Christian parties should either abstain from attacking the state of the fait accompli which he is running, especially in light of the constitutional appeal filed by the Phalange Party to challenge the recognition of the resistance as an independent entity from the state and inside of the state in the Cabinet statement, or he will repeat the experience of the “Sunni” Beirut which he occupied by armed force.
However, what Hezbollah missed is that such attempts that were seen in the near past to isolate the Christians due to their demands to control the spread of Palestinian arms inside and outside of the camps, to uphold the sovereignty of the state and keep the peace and war decision in its hands, all failed with the recognition of those who were carrying them out. Therefore, the repetition of this approach toward the Christians would mean that the party does not care about its alliance with one of their leaders.
If the Christians of the majority understood the positions of the leader of the Sunni sect, Saad al-Hariri, at the level of the renewed relations with Syria in their wider regional context and his reliance on a flexible formulation for the statement of the national unity government, thid does not imply that they should accept all its articles and recant key positions which are supported by the majority of the Lebanese.