LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 10/2010

Bible Of the Day
Luke 12/24-26 Most certainly I tell you, unless a grain of wheat falls into the earth and dies, it remains by itself alone. But if it dies, it bears much fruit. 12:25 He who loves his life will lose it. He who hates his life in this world will keep it to eternal life. 12:26 If anyone serves me, let him follow me. Where I am, there will my servant also be. If anyone serves me, the Father will honor him.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
US missile defense system turns the heat up on Iran/By: Paige Kollock/February 09/10

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for February 09/10
Separate St. Maroun Celebrations in Beirut and Brad, Sfeir Says Maronite Church Keen on Coexistence/Naharnet
Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Israel, a smoking gun?/Xinhua
Two services for Saint Maroun, a sign of divisions among Lebanese Maronites/AsiaNews.it
Khalife: Ethiopian Plane 'Exploded' after Take-off, 5 More Victims Identified/Naharnet
Spanish King Inspects U.N. Troops in South Lebanon/Naharnet
Jumblat Expresses Regret at 'Offensive Words' against Syrian People, Leadership/Naharnet
Hariri Convinced with Syrian Clarifications on Assad's Remarks/Naharnet
Struger: The Situation is Calm, All Sides Cooperating with UNIFIL/Naharnet
Murr Kicks of Talks with U.S. Officials/Naharnet
Army Arrests Majzoub's Uncle/Naharnet
Suleiman to Spain's King: Lebanon, UNIFIL Facing Dangerous Israeli Threats/Naharnet
U.S. Congressman Involved in Deployment of U.S. Marines in Beirut Dies/Naharnet
Saudi Government Urges International Response to Israeli Threats Against Lebanon, Syria/Naharnet

Sfeir: We are a nation of 'civilized minorities'
Patriarch tells Maronites not to sell land to foreigners
By Elias Sakr and Maroun Khoury
Daily Star staff
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
BKIRKI: The Maronite Patriarch said Monday the Lebanese National Pact was a covenant among the country’s religious minorities rather than a bilateral compromise between Christians and Muslims. On the eve of the anniversary of the Maronites patron Saint Maroun, Sfeir warned Maronites against selling their land and stressed that Lebanon, though not the Maronites’ country of origin, was their center of weight and a guarantee for their independence. This year’s Saint Maroun holiday falls on the 1,600th anniversary of the death of the founder of the Maronite church. Saint Maroun flourished as a hermit in Brad, a village north of the Syrian city of Aleppo, before moving with his followers to Lebanon. He is buried in the village.
“The Maronites wrote their history in land rather than books, a land of giving, sacrifice and self defense which reflected the Maronites’ independence,” Sfeir said in his address to Maronites.
He said land was the Maronites’ “only true anchor.”
The patriarch also warned Maronites against selling their land particularly to non- Lebanese. “Those [who sell their lands] violate the sanctity of their nation,” Sfeir added.
“Despite the fact that the Maronite religion did not stem from Lebanon, the Maronites feel that their true nation, like Saint Maroun wanted it, is a spiritual realm since the Maronite religion is a project of freedom with Lebanon as its symbol,” Sfeir said. The patriarch stressed that the Lebanese National Pact agreed upon by the country’s religious communities was established to serve the principles of freedom and determination.
Sfeir added that the pact was not a bilateral compromise between Christians and Muslims but rather a pact “between civilized minorities which embody religious communities.”
“The pact is an act of trust in the Lebanese cause which Lebanon’s religious communities were committed to since the day they fled to Lebanon starting with the Maronites that lost everything except for their spiritual culture,” Sfeir added. He added that “the Lebanese National Pact was not written and should not be since its only guarantee was belief in God and trust in man.” “The covenant is an act of give and take as well as an act of trust,” the patriarch said. Following a meeting with a delegation of the Lebanese Forces and the March 14 Secretariat General, Sfeir stressed that Lebanon should guarantee the people’s freedom of speech despite all difficulties.
Speaking on behalf of the March 14 delegation, Future Movement MP Ammar Houri praised Sfeir’s patriotic stances which he said promoted national coexistence, democratic principles and civil peace. Speaking for the LF delegation, Ziad Maalouf said his party backed Sfeir’s national stances. “We tell he who claims that Sfeir is taking sides that the patriarchy is for all Lebanon and any criticism of it is a criticism of Lebanon and all its factions,” he said. Aoun says syria visit bears historic importance
BEIRUT: Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader MP Michel Aoun said on Monday his visit to the Syrian city of Aleppo bears a historic significance. He stressed that the visit aimed to revive Eastern Christian culture. “Our visit today bears a historic importance since it sets a new track to revive true Eastern Christian culture because the Christian church originated from here, particularly the Antakya Church which embraces all Eastern Christian religious communities,” Aoun told reporters at Aleppo airport.
Aoun also slammed stances criticizing his visit to Syria to celebrate the anniversary of the patron of the Maronite sect, Saint Maroun, and stressed the occasion was celebrated worldwide rather than only in one church. Last Friday, Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir said he rejected any potential visit to Syria if not backed by his community.
“The top priority is to take my religious community with me and this is difficult in light of Christian concerns regarding Syria’s intentions toward Lebanon,” Sfeir said.
In response to Sfeir’s statement, FPM MP Alain Aoun said the FPM “went to Syria with what it represents since we speak for many Lebanese and we seek to better ties between Lebanon and Syria.” Marada Movement leader Suleiman Franjieh and former Lebanese President Emile Lahoud also attended the ceremony. – The Daily Star

Separate St. Maroun Celebrations in Beirut and Brad, Sfeir Says Maronite Church Keen on Coexistence
Naharnet/Lebanon's Maronites celebrated the 1600th anniversary of St. Maroun's death on Tuesday in two separate masses held in Beirut's Saint George church and in Brad in the Syrian city of Aleppo.Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir held the mass at Saint George in downtown Beirut at 11:00 am. The mass was attended by President Michel Suleiman, Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Saad Hariri and several cabinet ministers, MPs and politicians. Sfeir said in his sermon that the Maronite church, which was established by St. Maroun, has been keen on coexistence between Christians and Muslims.  As for the mass at St. Maroun church in Brad, it was attended by Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, former President Emile Lahoud, Marada movement leader Suleiman Franjieh and Energy Minister Jebran Bassil, who traveled to Aleppo on Monday. The mass was held at noon and Aoun made a statement after the prayers. He thanked President Bashar Assad and the Syrian people for their warm welcome. Aoun said Monday his visit to Aleppo bears a historic significance, stressing the trip was aimed at reviving Eastern Christian culture. "Our visit today bears a historic importance since it sets a new track to revive true Eastern Christian culture because the Christian church originated from here," the MP told reporters upon arrival to the Syrian city. Aoun also slammed those criticizing his visit to Syria, stressing the occasion was celebrated worldwide rather than only in one church.As for Franjieh, he said his visit had a religious aspect although he hinted he was proud of being part of the Syrian-Iranian axis.Ad-Diyar daily said Bkirki circles have expressed frustration at attempts to show a divide among Christians. "What's happening in Brad is an attempt to target the Maronite Patriarchate and hint that there is a Christian authority that can make decisions to weaken the Maronite church," the newspaper said. Beirut, 09 Feb 10, 08:20

Khalife: Ethiopian Plane 'Exploded' after Take-off, 5 More Victims Identified
Naharnet/In the first such official comment since the mysterious crash of the ill-fated Ethiopian jet, Health Minister Mohammed Jawad Khalife said Tuesday that the jet exploded after its take-off. Remarks by Khalife could not be immediately confirmed by other Lebanese officials. "The plane exploded during flight and the cabin, as well as the bodies of those on board were dispersed into the sea, in different locations," Khalife said to explain why some corpses were found dismembered. "The first bodies which have been retrieved following the crash were intact but after that, we began to find body pieces or mutilated corpses," he told reporters. Transportation Minister Ghazi Aridi refused to comment on the reported explosion. "I have no information about this," he told AFP. Khalife also announced that DNA tests identified the bodies of the Lebanese passenger Hussein Youssef Hajj Ali, the Ethiopian captain, and three other Ethiopian passengers. "We are sorry to say that we are pulling human remains," Khalife told reporters from Rafik Hariri state hospital. Lebanese army divers continued search for more bodies on Tuesday while the rescue ship USNS Grapple stepped up hunt for the second black box. However, MTV network reported Tuesday afternoon that divers from the navy commando regiment were pulling more bodies from the sea. On the other hand, the members of the plane crash investigation committee Hamdi Shawq, Mohammed Aziz and Denis Jones returned to Beirut after accompanying the first black box to Paris on board of a private jet belonging to PM Saad Hariri. Lebanese army divers retrieved one of the plane's two black boxes on Sunday and it has been sent to France for analysis. "We cannot say when we'll have news because it is a process and there is an investigation," Ethiopian Airlines spokeswoman Wogayehu Terefe told AFP in Addis Ababa. Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737-800 plunged into the Mediterranean before dawn on January 25, just minutes after take-off from Beirut airport during a storm. It was bound for Addis Ababa with 83 passengers and seven crew on board.
No survivors were found and searchers have been struggling to recover bodies as most victims were believed to be still strapped to their seats.
There have been conflicting reports as to whether the jet exploded while airborne or after it hit the water and officials have said there will be no answers until the data from the black boxes is analyzed. Lebanon has ruled out sabotage, blaming the bad weather for the tragedy, and officials have said the captain was instructed by the control tower to change to a certain heading but then the aircraft took a different course. Experts have told AFP that the stormy weather may not have been the only reason for the crash, and that the aircraft may have had engine or hydraulics problems. Witnesses have said they saw a ball of fire as the plane plunged into the sea and a defense ministry official said on the day of the tragedy that the plane broke into four pieces before crashing in the Mediterranean. The probe into the mysterious crash is being carried out by a Lebanese commission with support from a French body responsible for technical investigations of air accidents. U.S. and Ethiopian investigators are also involved.(Naharnet-AFP) Beirut, 09 Feb 10, 18:48

Spanish King Inspects U.N. Troops in South Lebanon
Naharnet/Spain's King Juan Carlos inspected Spanish U.N. troops stationed in southern Lebanon on Tuesday as he wrapped up a two-day visit to the country.
Wearing full military uniform, he placed a wreath at a memorial for soldiers who have fallen in the country since the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was founded in 1978 to monitor the border with Israel. Spanish Defence Minister Carme Chacon accompanied the king to Marjayoun, where the monarch also met UNIFIL commander Alberto Asarta Cuevas and around 100 Spanish troops. The trip comes just days after Spain took over command of UNIFIL, which currently has 12,000 troops from 29 countries, with Spain in third place contributing 1,070 soldiers. Since the establishment of UNIFIL, 275 of its soldiers have died in service.
The last major attack targeted a U.N. patrol in south Lebanon in June 2007, when a car bomb killed three Spaniards and three Colombians on patrol.
The king, on his first visit to Lebanon, held talks late on Monday with President Michel Suleiman, who praised Spain's "determination to reach a just and comprehensive peace in the Middle East." Spain has held the rotating presidency of the European Union since January and vowed to make every effort to ensure Israeli-Arab peace negotiations resume as soon as possible.
Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos reiterated Madrid's stand in talks on Tuesday Prime Minister Saad Hariri. "There has been a long and frustrating peace process and the time now is for ... all the parties to engage in serious talks" on both the Palestinian-Israeli and Israeli-Syria tracks, he said. Moratinos said he and Hariri also discussed Lebanese concerns about Israeli "threats" in past weeks against Hizbullah and Syria. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak "want to have a peaceful and positive engagement with all parties and countries," Moratinos said. Last week, Netanyahu accused Beirut of allowing Hizbullah to smuggle weapons into Lebanon in "blatant violation of (U.N. Security Council) Resolution 1701," which is monitored on the ground by UNIFIL. But on Sunday he sought to ease tensions, saying Israel wanted peace with all its neighbors.
Resolution 1701 brought an end to a devastating month-long war between Israel and Hizbullah in 2006. The war killed more than 1,200 Lebanese, most of them civilians, and more than 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 09 Feb 10, 14:06

Hariri Convinced with Syrian Clarifications on Assad's Remarks
Naharnet/Prime Minister Saad Hariri said he was convinced with the clarifications of political sources on Syrian President Bashar Assad's controversial statement to The New Yorker.
Hariri told BBC radio on Monday that investigative journalist Seymour Hersh had misquoted Assad. The premier said he was in continuous contact with Assad and his latest phone conversation with him only dealt with Israeli threats to Lebanon and Syria. Assad had reportedly said that the civil war in Lebanon could start in days. An official Syrian source later clarified Assad's statement in remarks published by pan-Arab daily al-Hayat by expressing Syria's rejection of all forms of political sectarianism in the Middle East where several religious communities coexisted. Hariri hinted to BBC that he could visit Damascus to sign several agreements. On the Feb. 14 mass rally on the occasion of his father's 5th assassination anniversary, Hariri said: "I will go to Martyrs Square and people will go there too because this day is till very important." About the Ethiopian airplane that crashed upon take off from Beirut last month, Hariri said the Lebanese government was making every effort to help the victims' families know the truth behind the crash.He acknowledged that mistakes were made, saying a meeting was held to assess the government's failures in order to be ready in case of another disaster. The prime minister lauded officials involved in the rescue operations, saying their consciences were clear. Hariri told BBC he was ready to personally pay for vessels and ships scouring Lebanese waters for the plane's wreckage and victims' remains. Beirut, 09 Feb 10, 09:07

Sfeir in Lent Message: Maronite Presence is Based on Covenant, We Ask for No One's Guarantees
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir on Monday said Maronites need guarantees from no one as their presence is based on a covenant. "Our presence is based on a covenant and through this we prove ourselves and ask for no one's guarantees," Sfeir said in a message on Fasting and on the occasion of the 1,600 anniversary of the death of Saint Maroun. "The Maronite community presents an expression of Maronite independence," Sfeir stressed. He said Lebanese Christians in general and Maronites in particular "have worked to achieve two inseparable goals throughout their history -- the establishment of a Lebanese state and entity and strengthening their presence in Lebanon, and then played a key role in the country's structure. Sfeir stressed that Lebanon is "first and foremost a Covenant for a cause." "This Covenant among the Lebanese sects is in essence an act of freedom and an act of determination at the same time," he explained. Describing Lebanon as a "distinguished country in the world," Sfeir said Lebanon does not exist on a treaty between Muslims and Christians, but on a "Covenant based on minority cultures that have turned into human sects." Beirut, 08 Feb 10, 13:28

Jumblat Expresses Regret at 'Offensive Words' against Syrian People, Leadership
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat has denied that he had told Washington Post columnist David Ignatius in a telephone interview in 2006 that the U.S. went to Iraq and "can do the same thing in Syria.""I never called for the invasion of Syria by the U.S. army … this is crazy," Jumblat told As Safir in an interview published Tuesday. "Maybe I thought that the condition of the opposition in Syria could improve." "I hope my clarification today would wipe out the offensive words against the Syrian people and the Syrian leadership," he said.
The Druze leader rejected continuous incitement against Damascus by some March 14 officials, saying "I don't see a necessity for that particularly after the historic settlement began with Premier Saad Hariri's visit to Damascus." About bomb attacks against anti-Syrian officials and journalists in Lebanon, Jumblat said that the series of assassinations continued after the withdrawal of the Syrian army from Lebanon. "Maybe someone wanted to pour oil on fire." On Hizbullah, Jumblat told his interviewer that he only sees "solidarity with the resistance in Lebanon and with Syria because Israeli madness" could lead to war anytime. "That's why I say that we are with the Syrian leadership above anything else in our confrontation with the Israeli enemy," the PSP leader said. He told As Safir that he would meet with Hizbullah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah soon. Turning to the Feb. 14 mass rally on the occasion of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's 5th assassination anniversary, Jumblat reiterated that he hoped the occasion would bring all Lebanese together. He also said he would decide on how to participate in the event at the appropriate time. "Unfortunately some people are trying to isolate us from the commemoration and seeking to build a hostile atmosphere against us without any justification." Beirut, 09 Feb 10, 09:48

Hezbollah uses the Lebanese Military to Terrorize Citizens
Washington DC. Feb 8th 2010
The Office of the President of the World Maronite Union (WMU), an INGO representing 15 million Maronites in the Diaspora issued the following statement
1)The WMU is very disturbed about the Lebanese authorities permitting Hezbollah to control important positions and offices within the national institutions of the country, particularly the military courts as they are being used by the terrorist organization to track down the citizens of Lebanon who have been targeted by the terrorists since before the year 2000.
2)Hezbollah is manipulating Lebanon’s military courts forcing them to accuse members of the Army and bureaucracy of treason and collaboration with Israel for the purpose of justifying a repression against patriots who had fulfilled their orders in their responsibilities of defending their nation and its citizens. This cannot be acceptable today. The military leadership of the day had divided the army and paved the way for the forces of terrorism to deploy throughout the length and breadth of the land. These accusations and oppressions are designed to frighten the Lebanese people away from their expectations of a strong Lebanese army which will defend their beloved homeland. Such aggression is designed to show the Lebanese that their army has failed at the hands of Iranian and Syrian terrorism through the agency of Hezbollah and other terrorist proxies on Lebanese soil.
3)The Wold Maronite Union vehemently rejects these unfair sentences in verse and paragraph; and calls on the United Nations to become vigilant in their effort to protect Lebanon from falling into the hands and control of terrorists. The United Nations must not allow a renewal of Hezbollah control over the Lebanese army, for it will use this control to provide a legitimate coverage for its terrorist activities against the people of Lebanon who have already rejected Hezbollah and its objectives by the uprising of the Cedars Revolution in March of 2005 to reclaim their independence and sovereignty.
4)Indeed the World Maronite Union calls on the forces of democracy in Lebanon, and particularly the Christian community to unite and stand in the face of Hezbollah and its terrorism. To stand strong also in the face of the Syrian regime and its continuous programming for its return to the Lebanese stage so that it can impose its renewed control under the umbrella of terrorism which it had created and continues to nurture and use in its efforts to tyrannize its neighbours and in particular Lebanon.
5)The World Maronite Union is saddened and concerned at the stance and position of President Michel Sleiman who seems to be submitting to the pressures of terrorism and is losing the confidence of the people in him day by day. We remind him of his obligations of protecting the nation and not allowing the terrorists to control the government institutions. We remind the president of his promise that the heart of the nation shall open wide and will be able to receive all its people.

God, family, country: Expounding Federalism
By Hanna Samir Kassab
February 09/10
Christian political force has dramatically weakened since the end of the civil war. The attempted banning of Christmas and Easter and the increased undeveloped and immature discussion on Secularism attests to this. Sami Gemayel argues that the only way for Christians to continue to hold on to their identity is to have their own distinct province. Many Lebanese do not feel comfortable with this idea but, I am willing to explore these ideas. By focusing on the history of Lebanon, I will try to theorize the feasibility of Lebanese Federalism, by focusing on the structure of Canadian Federalism. In my opinion, it does not conflict with the slogan of the Kataeb party “God, Family, Country”. It is a middle way between Secularism and the Sectarianism. By looking at Canadian Federalism we can imagine alternatives to the current political structure and further defend the rights of Lebanese Christians to maintain their unique identity.
Lebanon was created by the French to give the Christians the right to self-determination, a right denied to them for centuries. This was welcomed by many Christians, but rejected by many Muslims. Relations with Muslims were defined by two Maronite politicians at the time, Emile Edde and Bishara al-Khoury. Edde preferred to have a fully Maronite state (instead of one with a small and fragile Maronite majority) in the geographical area of Mount Lebanon with direct links with Western powers. On the other hand al-Khoury preferred the larger Lebanon in existence today, with the Bekaa valley, the South, Tripoli and its surrounding areas, Beirut and Mount Lebanon, sharing power equally with Muslims. However, it was Edde who decided to embrace al-Khoury’s ideas and enacted them during his time as French Mandate Lebanon’s president in 1936.
One reason al-Khoury’s vision won against Edde is because many worried that the small area of Mt. Lebanon would not be economically self-sufficient. Today, the economic environment is dramatically different. In the past, countries needed to be economically self-sufficient to feed and clothe the people. The economic structure of Lebanon is radically different. Lebanon now relies on tourism for wealth. Thus, if Mt. Lebanon were to even declare its independence and break off as a separate country, it would be able survive. It would not be the Switzerland of the Middle East; it would be more like Luxemburg.
Nevertheless, what would Lebanese Federalism look like? Today, in Canada there are three layers of government: Federal, Provincial and Municipal. Jurisdictions are clearly outlined by the Constitution, which defends human rights and freedoms: freedom of religion, speech and so on. Through this system, Canadians and their many distinct people (for example, the English and French Canadians) are protected as citizens are members of a Provincial as well as a Federal jurisdiction. Provinces are given a large amount of independence, protected and separated from the influence of other Provinces and the overarching Federal authority. Thus, identities are preserved through this system of governance: we have the equation “God, Family, Country” through this structure. Christians would have self-determination, but not be cut off from their Lebanese Muslim brethren. Everyone would maintain their identity and live in peace and respect.
There is of course, a very important concern. There are many Christians living outside the Mt. Lebanon region. What will happen to them? In the Canadian system, each Province has the liberty to create and follow their own laws, as long as they do not clash with the overarching Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Thus, in Zahle for example, the Bekaa province would not be allowed to create laws that infringe the inherent rights and freedoms of the Christians in this region.
Therefore, if the position of Christians should continues on the path its on, Federalism should be pursued, but only then. I look forward to further discussion of this subject. Lebanon is changing and we must change with it. We have to find other, more creative ways to protect Lebanese identity. We can never again pick up the sword to defend and preserve our beliefs for future generations. When it comes to the lives of our family, we should not be tied to our 10452km homeland; we have to cut our losses so to speak. We are called upon to be defenders of our religion, guardians of our history and protectors of our people. If the Christian way of life continues to be threatened, then Federalism must be tried.

Spat overshadows Lebanese Maronite 1600th anniversary celebrations
2/9/2010, The Associated Press
(AP) — Beirut/Damascus (dpa)-A political spat between leading Lebanese Maronites threatened to overshadow the celebration of the 1,600th anniversary of the death of their religion's founder Tuesday. Maronite Christians marked the anniversary of St Maron's death in 410 with a church service at Beirut's St George church. But in the Syrian city of Aleppo, a ceremony had already taken place on Monday evening to open the festivities, which are set to continue till March 2, 2011. Former general Michael Aoun, as well as other Lebanese Christian politicians with links to Syria, took part in the ceremony, offending some of their fellow Maronites at home. Traditionally a powerful community, the Maronites are riven by factions and infighting. In the country's 1975-90 war, several Maronite families, including the Aoun family, played prominent roles.Politicians of numerous confessions attended the celebrations in Beirut, which were led by Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeier. The Maronites are the largest Christian community in Lebanon. Worldwide there are six million Maronites, according to the church, including a large number of Lebanese exiles in the US. The Maronite church is affiliated to the Roman Catholic Church and recognizes the authority of the pope.
© 2010 Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.

US missile defense system turns the heat up on Iran
Paige Kollock, February 9, 2010 /Now Lebanon
After several weeks of saber rattling between both Washington and Tehran, Iran has once again decided to play tough, announcing over the weekend that it would raise its uranium enrichment levels from 3.5 to 20 percent, inching closer to the 90 percent enrichment needed to make a nuclear weapon. This defiant move comes a week after the US unveiled its new and improved Persian Gulf-based missile defense shield and Iran fired a rocket into space.
In addition to military pressure the US is exerting on Tehran, the Iranian government, in the wake of June’s disputed reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is facing mounting civil unrest and pressure from the international community, which is discussing further sanctions.
One year after US President Barack Obama promised to bring Iran in line with his silver-tongued diplomacy, the recent demonstration of US military might, coupled with further sanctions, shows his progress is lacking.
“[The missile defense system] signals that the US is ready for a conflict. It doesn’t signal that there would be one, or even that the US is expecting one,” said David Crist, a historian for the Joint Chiefs of Staff who is on leave to write a book about the US-Iranian conflict.
In fact, Crist noted, the missile defense system is not new. It began under the Clinton administration in the 1990s. What is new is the increased cooperation from Iran’s neighboring Gulf countries, and their strong desire to protect themselves from an ever more unyielding neighbor.
“Iran’s own actions have served only to strengthen the hand of the US with Gulf countries,” who are afraid of “a nuclear attack or even the damage imposed from Iran’s Shabat 3 long-range missile,” Crist told NOW.
Last October, President Obama’s diplomatic maneuvering seemed to be working when Iran agreed, in principal, to a proposal by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to curb its uranium enrichment program. The plan called for Iran to send its uranium abroad, to countries such as France and Russia, for high-level enrichment. But the mercurial Ahmadinejad never followed through.
Now, four months later, with the support of his friends on the UN Security Council, Obama is pushing for a fourth round of UN sanctions on the rouge regime. Even Russia has agreed to the measures, though China is still on the fence, perhaps in response to the perceived slight of a US arms shipment to Taiwan. As rumors of further sanctions float around, Ahmadinejad again signaled that he would accept last year’s IAEA deal. No one is taking him seriously.
“Ahmadinejad is trying to diminish political pressure from outside. He is trying to prevent the imposition of new sanctions on Iran,” said Mehdi Khalaji, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “He is in a very weak position because of the [domestic] political crisis in Iran.”
Iran’s internal problems will only flare up this week ahead of the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when widespread anti-government rallies are expected to take place across the country.
“The X factor now is the Iranian people,” said Patrick Disney, assistant Policy Director at the National Iranian American Council. “The Iranian opposition movement has asserted itself as a force to be reckoned with. There is now a political clock that’s competing with the nuclear clock… What’s happening with the repression in Iran, innocent protesters being beaten and jailed and killed and tortured, is absolutely abhorrent, but I firmly believe the movement for democratic change and respect for human rights in Iran is best thing that can be happening for Iran in the long term… It’s a drive for democracy that they started in 1905.”
But that drive to democracy comes at a price, Disney said, because it leaves Iran’s leaders on the defensive, less willing to cooperate with diplomacy efforts.
Crist says that Iran’s recent expression of openness for a deal was merely a stalling tactic. “It’s attempt to buy more time, maybe avoid stiffer sanctions… kick the can down road a little bit,” he said.
Adding to Obama’s concerns in the region, the fragile peace between Israel and its Middle Eastern neighbors is beginning to crack. Israel has threatened Syria, and in part Lebanon, with war, should Hezbollah – Iran’s proxy in Lebanon – step out of line, and Syria has fired right back. On February 3, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Mouallem warned Israel “should not test Syria’s determination, for it should know that a war will move to Israeli cities."
“The US has repeatedly cautioned Israel not to go ahead with any military attacks before all other options are exhausted,” Disney said. But a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic whose president has vowed to "wipe Israel off the map" may be enough for Israel to ignore Obama's pleas for patience.
Disney thinks Iran's leaders would relish the opportunity to point to an external conflict as a way to distract from their problems at home, and a regional war involving Israel, Syria and Lebanon would do the trick perfectly. So is that what Iran is angling for? No one knows for sure.
An ever patient consensus builder, Obama is pledging to stick to a combination of hard and soft pressure – sanctions alongside diplomacy – hoping one of them will stick. In the meantime, the missile defense shield will help reassure Israel and Obama's Arab allies that the US is there for them if Iran chooses not to be.